STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side over the weekend as the Greece drama continues. The algo motored along all day Friday without printing any numbers except for the pre-scheduled number before the open.  The quant is in idle mode currently focused on retail, financials, copper, volatility and key SPX support and resistance. Projections for the new trading week can be made once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow. 

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/11/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/6/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/4/11; 9:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is +1

11/2/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is +1

11/1/11; 3:46 PM EST = -24; signal line is +1

11/1/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is 0; go short 1233; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-2.0%)(Keybot this trade=-0.4%; Keybot for 2011=+26.0%)(Actual this trade via DIA=-0.9%; Actual for 2011=+35.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after the pre-scheduled number clicks off ahead of the opening bell. The caution flag remains out since European news can wildly move the indexes one way or the other at the drop of a hat, as evidenced in yesterday's session.

For today, watch JJC 46.75, if price moves above, this will win over the quant and position it more towards moving to the bull side. Likewise VIX 30.00. If VIX stays above 30 the bears are favored, below 30 and the bulls will have a feather in their cap and a more sustained rally in place. If the down side is preferred for the indexes after the open today, watch the financials, XLF, and retail, RTH.  If XLF drops under 12.95, and/or the RTH drops under 107.70, the market bears will flex their muscles.  If there is no change to JJC, VIX, XLF and RTH as described above, then the markets move sideways today.

For the SPX today, starting at 1261, if the market bulls get up and over 1263, the indexes will launch to the upside.  If the market bears push below 1235, the large block sellers will enter in force and the indexes will drop quickly from there.  A move thru 1236-1262 is sideways action into the weekend.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/11/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/6/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/4/11; 9:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is +1

11/2/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is +1

11/1/11; 3:46 PM EST = -24; signal line is +1

11/1/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is 0; go short 1233; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-2.0%)(Keybot this trade=-0.4%; Keybot for 2011=+26.0%)(Actual this trade via DIA=-0.9%; Actual for 2011=+35.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short despite the big up day today.  If you were watching the sectors described this morning, you see that the bulls keep utes, semi's, retail and financials in their camp.  At the same time, the bears keep copper and high volatility in their camp, hence, the algo motored along unimpressed without printing any numbers. This bolsters the idea that today was a pure 'Greece referendum-abandonment relief rally'. If the rally was real, copper would have moved much higher, perhaps tomorrow it will confirm the upside, but at least for overnight tonight and thru the jobs report numbers in the morning, Keybot remains short.

The quant prints out a pre-scheduled number in the morning before the open. At that time, the Friday session will be set up for the technical levels to watch.  Today, JJC (copper price) was key. If JJC would have moved above 46.75 the bull rally party would have been real, since JJC could only muster up 46.58, still 17 pennies short, and that was the closing print at the HOD, the rally is suspect. VIX stayed above 30 as well further placing the rally in question. Note that the SPX is about 28 points above where the algo entered short at 1233. The algorithm is not shy about taking losses and reversing sides if the program dictates but it is interesting that today Keybot chose to stay short. Tomorrow will tell the tale.

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/6/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/4/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/2/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is +1

11/1/11; 3:46 PM EST = -24; signal line is +1

11/1/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is 0; go short 1233; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-2.0%)(Keybot this trade=-0.4%; Keybot for 2011=+26.0%)(Actual this trade via DIA=-0.9%; Actual for 2011=+35.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short to start the Thursday session.  The algo has been short for two days with no whipsaw occurring. The quant simply idled along yesterday without clicking off any additional numbers after the print at the opening bell.

Financials jumped back into the bull camp yesterday and pushed the markets higher. This allows the four sector pillars to continue to support the bullish side of the markets; utilities, semiconductors, retail and financials. Thus, if the markets want to move lower today, watch for any weakness in these four sectors.  If the markets want to push higher today, that would be accomplished by either boosting copper price higher or pushing volatility lower.

Here are some actual numbers the quant is now scanning: UTIL 439.23; SOX 371.70; RTH 107.50; XLF 12.95; JJC 46.75; VIX 30.00.  Thus, if price fails thru any of the first four listed, the broad markets will be selling off and tracking lower.  If price moves above JJC 46.75, or below VIX 30.00, then the large block buyers will be in the broad markets and the indexes will be moving upwards.  If the current status remains, the markets idle along sideways.

For the SPX today, starting at 1237.90, if the market bulls push higher, and touch 1242.50, about 4 or 5 bucks higher, the buyers will throw a party, the indexes will launch upwards several more handles in short order.  If the market bears push the SPX lower to lose the 1220 handle, critical support, about 18 points lower, the large block sellers will slap the indexes much lower and the market bears will have a field day. A move thru 1221-1241 is sideways action.

Stay on guard as this wild week hits high gear with the ECB rate decision and conference shortly, the Greek tragedy in progress, the G20 Summit and the Jobs Report tomorrow morning.

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/6/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/4/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/2/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is +1

11/1/11; 3:46 PM EST = -24; signal line is +1

11/1/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is 0; go short 1233; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-2.0%)(Keybot this trade=-0.4%; Keybot for 2011=+26.0%)(Actual this trade via DIA=-0.9%; Actual for 2011=+35.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo kicks off the day printing a higher number, now only nine points distance from the signal line. The financials recovered today supplying bullish strength for markets.

Watch XLF 12.95, now at 13.12, so market bullish.  Watch JJC (copper) 46.75 level, now at 46.47, so market bearish. Watch VIX 30 level, now at 33, so market bearish. Traders are waiting for how much, if at all, Chairman Bernanke discusses quantitative easing after lunch today. Markets will move higher if QE3 is mentioned, if the topic is avoided, markets will sell off.

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/6/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/4/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/2/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is +1

11/1/11; 3:46 PM EST = -24; signal line is +1

11/1/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is 0; go short 1233; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-2.0%)(Keybot this trade=-0.4%; Keybot for 2011=+26.0%)(Actual this trade via DIA=-0.9%; Actual for 2011=+35.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short after the flip to the bearish side this morning. Just before the close, the algo registered financials as falling into the bearish camp. Thus, one of the four sectors that supported the recent rally has now failed. XLF 12.93 is the line in the sand between market bulls and bears, and the closing print today is 12.86, market bearish. If XLF moves above 12.93 at the open tomorrow, then the broad markets will be buoyant.  If XLF remains under 12.93, the market selling will continue.

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/6/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/4/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/1/11; 3:46 PM EST = -24; signal line is +1

11/1/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is 0; go short 1233; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-2.0%)(Keybot this trade=-0.4%; Keybot for 2011=+26.0%)(Actual this trade via DIA=-0.9%; Actual for 2011=+35.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at the opening bell today. The higher volatilty and lower copper price pushed the algo to turn bearish.  Interestingly, the financials and retail collapsed at the open today, moving into bearish territory as defined by the quant, but they recovered in the opening minutes.  Nonetheless, the XLF and RTH are two of the four sector pillars supporting the equities markets so the weakness is important.

The last move resulted in a flatish outcome for the model, Keybot the Quant gave back a half percent and the actual trading gave back a percent. Caution is warranted for today and tomorrow since a whipsaw move would not be surprising.

Volatility wants to stay above 30 and copper price should maintain weakness after the China PMI number overnight, thus, watch the following four sectors to see if any of the levels fail; XLF 12.95, RTH 107.25, SOX 371.50 and UTIL 439.  If any of these fail, the market sell off will increase substantially. If not, the down move will moderate and the broad markets will move sideways. 

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/6/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/4/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/1/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is 0; go short 1233; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-2.0%)(Keybot this trade=-0.4%; Keybot for 2011=+26.0%)(Actual this trade via DIA=-0.9%; Actual for 2011=+35.6%)

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +22; signal line is -1

10/31/11; 12:42 AM EST = +22; signal line is -2

10/31/11; 12:21 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3

10/31/11; 11:27 AM EST = +22; signal line is -4

10/31/11; 10:53 AM EST = +6; signal line is -5

10/31/11; 10:42 AM EST = +22; signal line is -6

10/31/11; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is -8

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is -9

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is -11

10/27/11; 11:59 AM EST = +36; signal line is -13

10/27/11; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -15

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long despite the sell off into the closing bell today. Copper and volatility are dancing on the fence and the direction they fall tomorrow will determine broad market direction.  On a longer term time frame, the market bears have something to smile about today since the month-end print occurred for the SPX and it finished well below the 12-month MA indicating that the broad markets remain in a secular bear market moving forward for the weeks and months ahead.

For tomorrow, since the SPX closed at the lows, the market bears only need red futures overnight, even red only by a few pennies, and this will be enough to continue the selling right where it left off at the close today, with the SPX working down to test support at 1249, 1247, 1244 and stronger support at 1242. SPX 1249 is important since the SPX failed here on 8/4/11 ushering in the waterfall sell off. Also of interest is that the SPX dropped back under the starting year number of 1257.64 turning negative on the year again.

Keeping it simple for tomorrow, watch JJC (copper) 46.80 and VIX 30.00. Closing prints are JJC 46.90 and VIX 29.96, both market bullish (copper is above 46.80 and VIX is below 30). These sectors are only providing market bullishness by pennies, the JJC only 10 cents over, and the VIX only four cents under, hence, they are dancing on the fence line tonight. If JJC loses 46.80 and/or VIX moves up and over 30, the broad markets will be selling off; controlled selling if one turns bearish, if both turn bearish, the selling will accelerate substantially and Keybot will probably flip to the short side.  If JJC stays above 46.80 and VIX stays below 30, the markets will move sideways to sideways up during Tuesday's session.

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/6/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/4/11; 9:00 AM EST =

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +22; signal line is -1

10/31/11; 12:42 AM EST = +22; signal line is -2

10/31/11; 12:21 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3

10/31/11; 11:27 AM EST = +22; signal line is -4

10/31/11; 10:53 AM EST = +6; signal line is -5

10/31/11; 10:42 AM EST = +22; signal line is -6

10/31/11; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is -8

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is -9

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is -11

10/27/11; 11:59 AM EST = +36; signal line is -13

10/27/11; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -15

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but the caution flag waves again.  The quant falls from +36 to +6 in a heart beat, the algo number and signl line converging closer which leads to Keybot flipping short at some point forward.  Copper is dropping this morning reflective of dollar strength.

Continue to watch copper today. Use JJC as a proxy, the 46.75 level, last print is 46.60 favoring market bears in the broad markets, but only by 15 pennies.  As highlighted last evening, the SPX 1277 level is key today since this is the 12-month MA cross that projects a secular bear market versus a secular bull market, and the month-end print occurs at 4 PM today, when the print is cast in concrete.  Thus, SPX closing today above 1277 and the bulls can throw confetti. A close below 1277 and the market bears are still in control of these markets. If the market bears decide to take things lower, they will probably attack the retail or banking sectors, or, try to drive volatilty, the VIX, above 30 again.

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/6/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/4/11; 9:00 AM EST =

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/31/11; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is -8

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is -9

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is -11

10/27/11; 11:59 AM EST = +36; signal line is -13

10/27/11; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -15

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long to start the new trading week. Markets are already jumpy considering the jam packed week ahead with earnings, economic data and the four key events; FOMC, ECB, G20 Summit and Jobs Report. The overnight session tonight reacts to currency intervention by the BOJ.

Many major sectors have joined the bull camp now to help support market buoyancy. Watch copper on Monday, JJC, now at 48.21. If the 46.75 level fails, the broad markets will sell off. The other key item for Monday, since the EOM prints will be available at 4 PM, is the SPX 1277-1278 level. If Monday finishes with the SPX above, the market bulls can throw confetti since it means the secular bearish market trend has reversed. The market bears must close the day below 1277-1278 to maintain the current secular bear market posture.

The algo will print two pre-scheduled numbers this week; one tomorrow night and the second on Friday morning. This week should be epic trading since a huge confluence of technicals, fundamentals, events, earnings, data, meetings, summit and jobs report all occur in this same time frame. Hang on tight. Keep it simple, watch SPX 1277-1278 like a hawk.

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/6/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/4/11; 9:00 AM EST =

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is -9

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is -11

10/27/11; 11:59 AM EST = +36; signal line is -13

10/27/11; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -15

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long thru the weekend. The pre-scheduled number Friday was the only number the algo printed during the session. Tomorrow, the week ahead wil be set up once the quant prints the pre-scheduled Sunday number.

The markets were flat Friday since copper did not give up ground, this kept the markets buoyant, but commodities did not run upwards, this prevented further market upside.  The SPX 1277-1278 level is extremely important for Monday.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is -11

10/27/11; 11:59 AM EST = +36; signal line is -13

10/27/11; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -15

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long; the pre-scheduled number just printed without any change except for a continually higher moving signal line. The higher the signal line moves the closer the quant comes to flipping short. JJC (copper) is above 46.75 so the market bulls are fine. The CRB remains five points away from 327.90 so do not expect any further bull strength.

SPX bounced off support at the 12-month MA at 1277 so far today.  This level is important.  Also the 200 day MA at 1274. If JJC remains above 46.75 and CRB remains below 327.90 the broad markets will motor along sideways. If the JJC fails 46.75, the market selling will increase.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is -11

10/27/11; 11:59 AM EST = +36; signal line is -13

10/27/11; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -15

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Big run-up today on the happy Euro news. Volatility dropped like a stone launching the broad markets, copper moved higher further bolstering the move up and the SPX crossed important upside levels as well locking in the bull move.

To gauge the continued strength of the broad market move, watch copper, JJC, now at 48.02. If JJC remains above 46.75, the market buoyancy will continue. Market bears need to push JJC under 46.75.  For the bulls to continue the move upwards, the CRB, now at 324.27, must participate and needs to cross up thru 327.90. For the SPX tomorrow, starting at 1285, the market bulls need to touch the 1293 handle, if so the markets will launch another step higher.

Last night at this time the outcome of the EU Summit was unknown and traders feared the worse. With the huge opening spike today you had to be long before the bell this morning to take the bull ride; the SPX launched over 30 handles in the first four minutes, then another 10 handles for the remainder of the day into the closing bell, thus, 3/4ths of the move occurred in the first four minutes today. Watch JJC and CRB as described above to determine Friday's direction.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/27/11; 11:59 AM EST = +36; signal line is -13

10/27/11; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -15

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long.  The algo motored along calmly today since the four main sectors supporting this bull rally; utes, semi's, retail and financials, remained above the quant's reference number, but, in the final half hour, volatility, VIX, dropped and decided to further fuel the levitating indexes.

For Thursday, watch VIX 29.90, now at 29.86, only four pennies on the bull-friendly side. The bulls will run if the VIX stays under 29.90. If the VIX moves above 29.90, the market bears will be selling the indexes. Retail is receiving a negative divergence smack down and may turn bearish to weaken the markets.  For the four sectors mentioned above, watch the following levels, price is above for all four currently, the market bears would need at least one to drop below the level the algo is tracking which is: UTIL 432, SOX 367.75, RTH 106.75 and XLF 12.75.

For the SPX, starting at 1242, the market bulls need to get up and over 1246, if so, the upside will accelerate higher in short order, 1247 will give way and price will probably run to 1252 for a test of that resistance.  The market bears need to push hard since a drop of 21 points is needed for bears to get any mojo going.  If the bears move the SPX down to 1221, the sellers will enter in force, if a 1220 handle hits, the selling will accelerate. A move thru 1222-1244 is sideways slop.

As the bell rings, the VIX will immediately tell you the preferred market direction for the indexes; simply watch VIX 29.90. If the markets sell off, watch to see if any of the four sectors drop below the levels listed.  If so, then the bears have something going and Keybot may flip to the short side, if not, the market bears got nothing.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6 signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8 signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6 signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long despite the selling today. The four pillars supporting the markets, utes, semi's, retail and financials all hung in there fine today. The financials, XLF, tumbled into the close breaking the 13 level down to a low of 12.93, but this was still 18 cents above danger.

The markets will float sideways to sideways up as long as the four sectors above remain bullish, as measured by the quant. The two closest to losing luster are semi's, SOX, watch the 367.30 level, and, XLF, watch the 12.75 level. If either of these fail, the market selling will noticeably increase. UTIL 432 is in play for the rest of the week as well.

For the SPX tomorrow, starting at 1229, market bulls have to retrace the loss today back up to touch 1254, a formidable task. Instead, bulls will simply try to stabilize the markets by not allowing SOX and XLF to fail below the levels shown. The market bears have it a little easier tomorrow. If the 1227 is lost, only two points lower, and you see a 1226 handle, the sellers will enter in force and the SPX and the broad markets will sell off further in short order. A move thru 1228-1250 is sideways action. The market bears got nothing unless they break down thru SOX 367.30, UTIL 432 and/or XLF 12.75.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long despite the early selling. Note the VIX jumped higher again, directly into the open arms of the market bears. Utes, semi's--despite TXN's weak earnings and guidance, financials and retail are the four sectors that continue to support the broad market recovery rally.

The SPX touched the 1238 handle and collapsed to 1233 as would be expected, then bounced.  Support and resistance levels for the SPX are 1233, 1235, 1240, 1242, 1247, 1249, 1252, 1257, 1258, 1259. The starting year number is 1257.64.

The VIX above 30 favors market bears.  Watch UTIL 432, SOX 368, RTH 107 and XLF 12.75, all prices are now comfortably above favoring market bulls. Should the bears start to push lower, the financials, XLF, will probably be the first to fail, so watch that one very closely. Last print for XLF is 13.12, 37 pennies above danger, and currently helping keep the broad markets buoyant. Stay on guard, the algo has placed the caution flag in play again. The algo should turn short if any of the four strong sectors turn bearish at the levels shown. If the four sectors remain strong, so will the markets.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is back on the long side but in these erratic markets it may not last long.  The algo did not print out any additional numbers today after the early action.  Volatility was the big story boosting the markets another step higher.

For tomorrow, the SPX starts at 1254; if 1257 is touched the market bulls will accelerate the buying once again, the indexes will move vertically several more handles in short order. If 1239 fails and a 1238 handle is touched, the large block sellers will enter in force and the indexes willd drop several additional handles.  A move thru 1240-1256 is sideways action ahead of the Merkozy EU Summit announcement on Wednesday. If VIX stays under 29.85, the market bulls are favored. If the VIX moves back above 29.85, then the market bears are making a run to send the markets lower. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM tomorrow.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Algorithm Turns

10/24/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM at SPX 1238; for the year thus far SPX Benchnmark is down 1.6%; Keybot algo is up 26.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 36.5%. The Fed's quantitative easing talk on 10/21 and 10/22 bounced markets. Watch for a whipsaw today or tomorrow.10/20/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:59 AM at SPX 1206; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 4.1%; Keybot algo is up 29.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 40.3%. Watch for potential whipsaw. SPX 1220 is important, also SOX 363.65 and XLF 12.62.
10/6/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 10:21 AM at SPX 1146; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 8.9%; Keybot algo is up 23.9%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.5%. Watch for a potential whipsaw.
9/29/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:10 PM at SPX 1146; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 8.9%; Keybot algo is up 23.9%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.2%. Be cautios to see if a whipsaw occurs.
9/26/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:41 AM at SPX 1148; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 8.7%; Keybot algo is up 24.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 34.1%. Be cautious to see if a whipsaw occurs. Six turns in 17 trading days is an extremely active algo and not typical, reflecting the highly volatile markets in play now.
9/22/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at the opening bell at SPX 1150; for the year thus far SPX benchmark is down 8.6%; Keybot algo is up 23.9%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.4%. As always, when a turn occurs, stay on guard for a whipsaw today or tomorrow.
This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is back on the long side at the opening bell. A short time ago the VIX, volatility has crossed back into bull territory which is encouraging further lift for the markets. The market remain at the mercy of Europe news but for now, all is right with the bulls.  The utes, semi's, retail, financials and now lower volatility are all pillars of support for the markets.

Stay on guard for a whipsaw back to the short side since the next few days of trading are expected to be a roller coaster ride.  For any initial cracks in the bull case, watch VIX now at 29.80, only pennies below the 29.86 level that the quant is watching. A move back above 29.86 will stop any further market upside.

Keybot gave back 3% on the last trade, lost 4% on the actual trade. Last Thursday the markets were rolling over when the Fed released the quantitiative easing talk. That reveresed the markets immediately also leading to a gap up open Friday morning. The algo number is now 27 integers above the signal line which is comfortably bullish--for now.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay short

10/20/11; 1:20 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay short

10/20/11; 1:06 PM EST = -24; signal line is -24; algorithm remains short

10/20/11; 10:59 AM EST = -40; signal line is -24; go short 1206; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-4.1%)(Keybot this trade=+5.2%; Keybot for 2011=+29.1%)(Actual this trade via DIA=+4.8%; Actual for 2011=+40.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is currently short but will flip long if the SPX can move above 1239, only a point higher than the Friday close at 1238.  The algo would be long already but it is held back in a large part due to the gap up open on Friday morning. The algo is simply waiting for tomorrow's open to determine if the bulls have game. All you have to do is watch the futures since a green start tomorrow should trigger the 1239 which will send the SPX up to 1240, 1242 then 1247. If the market bears can wrestle back control, 1233 serves as support then the critical support cluster of 1225-1227. The utilities, semi's, retail and financials are the main support for the markets.

The semiconductors are very important this week. The SOX is at 372 and remains firmly in the bull camp, but if the SOX touches a 365 handle, the markets will be in trouble. Volatility remains elevated above 30, no doubt causing the wild large-point swings in the indexes.  Watch VIX 29.30, now over 31, if VIX stays above 29.30 this favors market bears. If the VIX falls under 29.30, the market bulls will run the indexes lots higher.

At the opening bell we see if the algo takes its lumps and returns to the long side, or not, 1239 is the key.  Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week, one on Tuesday morning and one on Friday morning.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay short

10/20/11; 1:20 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay short

10/20/11; 1:06 PM EST = -24; signal line is -24; algorithm remains short

10/20/11; 10:59 AM EST = -40; signal line is -24; go short 1206; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-4.1%)(Keybot this trade=+5.2%; Keybot for 2011=+29.1%)(Actual this trade via DIA=+4.8%; Actual for 2011=+40.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Another day of odd market behavior. The algo wants to be long since 1 PM Thursday afternoon but other program rules are holding it back. The algo did not print out any numbers today.  The gap up this morning was important since it prohibits the model from making any decision for about 90 minutes, then, after time elapsed, the algo wanted to see the SPX over 1239, but it did not comply all day long, until the final few minutes when price came close, the SPX closing at 1238.25. Thus, markets have to wait for Monday to find out how the EU meeting goes this weekend; happy Europe talk with a constructive meeting means up markets, sad Europe talk with a meeting in disarray with mixed messages and conflict means lower markets.

Note that the SPX is about 32 handles up instead of down compared to Keybot's entry short at SPX 1206. Thus, the algo may have to give some back come Monday. If futures are green Sunday night, Keybot will probably flip long at the open; if the futures are red going into Monday's open, Keybot will probably stay short, but we can explore more specific levels and sectors to watch this weekend, along with the pre-scheduled Sunday number. Semiconductors are important next week.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/20/11; 1:20 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay short

10/20/11; 1:06 PM EST = -24; signal line is -24; algorithm remains short

10/20/11; 10:59 AM EST = -40; signal line is -24; go short 1206; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-4.1%)(Keybot this trade=+5.2%; Keybot for 2011=+29.1%)(Actual this trade via DIA=+4.8%; Actual for 2011=+40.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short currently but the algo wants to flip back to the long side. Since the open gapped up, the quant will wait for approximately 90 minutes, time for the smoke to clear, and if the SPX remains elevated at current levels, Keybot will more than likely flip back to the long side at 11 AM. The algo number remains the same today without any new numbers printing thus far.  The algo is now keying off the behavior of the SPX to set up all the ducks in a row before whipsawing back to the long side. Note that volatility remains elevated.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/20/11; 1:20 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay short

10/20/11; 1:06 PM EST = -24; signal line is -24; algorithm remains short

10/20/11; 10:59 AM EST = -40; signal line is -24; go short 1206; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-4.1%)(Keybot this trade=+5.2%; Keybot for 2011=+29.1%)(Actual this trade via DIA=+4.8%; Actual for 2011=+40.3%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns--Bearish from 10/20/11

10/20/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:59 AM at SPX 1206; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 4.1%; Keybot algo is up 29.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 40.3%. Watch for potential whipsaw. SPX 1220 is important, also SOX 363.65 and XLF 12.62.
10/6/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 10:21 AM at SPX 1146; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 8.9%; Keybot algo is up 23.9%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.5%. Watch for a potential whipsaw.
9/29/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:10 PM at SPX 1146; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 8.9%; Keybot algo is up 23.9%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.2%. Be cautios to see if a whipsaw occurs.
9/26/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:41 AM at SPX 1148; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 8.7%; Keybot algo is up 24.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 34.1%. Be cautious to see if a whipsaw occurs. Six turns in 17 trading days is an extremely active algo and not typical, reflecting the highly volatile markets in play now.
9/22/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at the opening bell at SPX 1150; for the year thus far SPX benchmark is down 8.6%; Keybot algo is up 23.9%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.4%. As always, when a turn occurs, stay on guard for a whipsaw today or tomorrow.
This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.