STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as a sleepy week muddles along. The robot has not printed any numbers this week but the prescheduled numbers will print tomorrow morning. The bears are in control with the algo number 17 points below the signal line.

The copper versus banks cage match is a dud with people demanding their money back because copper remains bullish and banks bearish. Neither has flinched. And VIX remains above the 16.62 line in the sand creating negativity in the stock market. GTX, commodities, are above the 3841 line in the sand creating positivity in the stock market. The status is quo.

Thus, getting back to copper and banks, the cage match is back on. The quant is tracking these two metrics as the top influencers on the stock market right now. CPER 30.42 and XLF 52.79 are the bull/bear lines in the sand, respectively. Copper, CPER, is above 30.42 at 30.83 creating bullishness in the stock market. Bears need a -1.3% drop in copper futures overnight or tomorrow to celebrate more stock market carnage.

Financials, XLF, are below 52.79 at 52.41 creating bearishness in the stock market. Bulls need a +0.7% gain in the banksters to signal that the stock market selling has stopped, markets are stable, and the quant may be in position to flip long.

Thus, very simply, if CPER loses 30.42, stocks are toast. If XLF regains 52.79, stocks will rally and recover and the robot may flip long. It is a cage match rematch. One of the two will flinch and the stock market will follow.

Utilities are sneaking around in the stock market bushes. Go back a couple posts to read the mumbo-jumbo about utes. UTIL 1107.90 is a bull/bear line in the sand for all of next week. UTIL is at 1113 with only the Friday session remaining this week. Check to see where UTIL closes at 4 PM EST tomorrow because it tells you what the stock market will do next week.

If UTIL ends this week above 1108, like it is now, the bulls are hanging in there and will continue trying to wrestle back control of the stock market. If UTIL, of DJU, ends the week below 1108, only 5 ticks below where it will begin tomorrow, next week will be ugly with stocks likely dropping out of the gate on Monday morning. Let it Drop by Sports Team. Be a monkey in a tie.

11/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/7/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +13; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short  with the algo number 17 points below the signal line. The bears growl but the quant has not printed any numbers this week yet so the bears got buptkis.

Tomorrow, hump day, is a cage match. Two will enter but only one will exit taking the stock market in that direction. The battle is between copper and banks. The lines in the sand are CPER 30.41 creating stock market bullishness, and XLF 52.79 creating bearishness.

Bears need weaker copper because it opens the floodgates to pain and misery in the stock market. CPER begins tomorrow at 30.53 only pennies away from disaster. You can watch copper futures overnight to see if a -0.4% drop occurs, if so, the US stock market will be in big trouble.

Bulls need to keep copper in their camp while at the same time pumping banks higher. Bulls need XLF above 52.79, again, another number only pennies away from tomorrow's starting point at 52.42. Watch XLF in the pre-market to see if it is up +0.7%, if so, the bulls are coming to play and will try to reestablish the rally party. If VIX drops below 16.62, stocks will be catapulting higher in a festive mood.

The quant likely needs to see both XLF and VIX flip bullish to flip long. If both metrics turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 6820, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. If only 1 of the 2 flips bullish, watch to see if it oscillates above and below the lines in the sand, if so, that is good for the bulls going forward because it may jog the robot forward to where only 1 of the 2 metrics are needed to flip long.

If copper remains bullish, and banks remain bearish, that will not be much of a cage match. Watch CPER, XLF and VIX since 1 of the 3 will likely flinch and tell you the answer forward. Tomorrow should provide the answer on whether stocks will begin Free Fallin' as per Tom Petty, or not.

11/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/7/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +13; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend. The bulls rally stocks but it is irrelevant with the VIX moving higher. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 17 points below the signal line.

Retail sales, banks and volatility crippled the stock market last week but it is still limping along trying to crawl higher. XRT 83.90, XLF 52.84 and VIX 16.71 are the bull/bear lines in the sand that failed creating the last couple days of soggy stocks. You can check the VIX in overnight trading and the other two in the premarket to see if the bears remain in good shape (remember, the VIX moves inverse to the stock market).

The bulls likely need 2 of the 3 metrics to turn bullish to start the upward stock market joy again. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX moves above 6879 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Bears need to keep the 3 metrics above negative and at the same time punch copper, commodities and utilities lower to create more negativity. GTX below 3836 would greatly help the bears.

Utilities are falling apart when no one is looking. UTIL 1082.51 is the key bull/bear line in the sand for the week ahead. Price begins at 1111. There will be huge trouble for stocks if 1082 fails. Further, for the week of 11/10/25, UTIL 1107.90 is the line in the sand. Thus, watch UTIL, or DJU, at the end of the week on Friday at 4 PM EST. If UTIL is below 1108, there will be trouble in equity land the week of 11/10/25.

At any time over the next month, if UTIL 1048 fails, there is an extremely high probability that the stock market will crash. Utilities have trailed lower for 3 weeks an ominous sign. When utes lead the broad market lower, it means the pullback will be uber nasty. So UTIL will be fun to watch over the coming days.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week both on Friday morning one before the opening bell and one shortly after. November trading begins tomorrow with only 2 months remaining in the year.

11/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/7/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +13; signal line is +30
10/31/25; 10:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +31
10/31/25; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +32
10/30/25; 3:07 PM EST = +13; signal line is +31
10/30/25; 12:13 PM EST = +27; signal line is +31
10/30/25; 11:42 AM EST = +13; signal line is +30
10/30/25; 11:15 AM EST = +27; signal line is +30
10/30/25; 10:08 AM EST = +13; signal line is +29
10/30/25; 9:52 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the robot off to an active start for Thursday. The bears remain in control of the stock market but the algo number is only 2 measly points below the signal line.

Volatility is playing a top role in the stock market drama. Watch VIX 16.70 the bull/bear line in the sand. Above and bears win with stocks selling off. Below and bulls win with stocks stabilizing and starting a new rally. VIX falls to 16.46 right now so the bulls are winning this minute.

XLF 52.87 and XRT 84.17 are two more lines in the sand and prices remain below so the bears are happy about this.

GTX 3834 is the commodities line in the sand with price at 3889 creating stock market bullishness.

Thus, VIX and GTX are creating market joy while XRT and XLF create market angst. 1 of the 4 will flinch and send stocks in that direction. Simply watch those lines in the sand. The VIX 16.70 line in the sand is key today. Bears are hanging on by their fingernails. You Give Love a Bad Name. Paint your smile, on your lips, blood red nails on your fingertips.

11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/25; 9:52 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29
10/30/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +28
10/30/25; 9:17 AM EST = +27; signal line is +28
10/30/25; 9:10 AM EST = +13; signal line is +27
10/30/25; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
10/29/25; 3:19 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 6856 at 2:41 PM EST this afternoon as Pope Powell was tap-dancing in front of reporters. Banks, volatility and retail stocks all failed today sending equities down the rabbit hole. The Fed tried to push volatility lower into the close accounting for the recovery in the stock indexes but the VIX beach ball would not stay underwater.

Traders hit the sell button when Chairman Powell said a 12/10/25 rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. The quant is active today spitting out 7 numbers and flipping short. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 13 points below the signal line. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw tomorrow although the tech earnings this evening are sh*tting the bed and will likely create soggy futures into tomorrow.

VIX 16.70, XRT 84.17 and XLF 52.83, volatility, retail stocks and banks, respectively, are driving the stock market to and fro. All 3 are bearish creating todays gloom. Bears need to keep all 3 bearish and deteriorating further while also trying to weaken commodities and pull GTX below 3835 to cause real trouble.

The bulls need any 1 of the 3 bearish metrics above to turn bullish and that will stabilize the stock market and prevent anymore downside in equities. Bulls need VIX below 16.70, you can check this overnight, XRT above 84.17 and/or XLF above 52.83. Any 1 of the 3 would do. These three parameters will tell you the story on the stock market.

On the last trade that ran for only 9 days, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains about +4%. For the year, the benchmark SPX is up nearly +17% a bigtime year if it holds. The Keybot the Quant program is up +27% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a humungous +34% thus far this year. Put that in your pipe, or bong, and smoke it. Can't Believe We're Here. Keybot exited SSO and entered QID remaining in 2x leveraged ETF's.

11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/29/25; 3:19 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26
10/29/25; 3:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
10/29/25; 2:41 PM EST = +13; signal line is +25; go short 6856 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +16.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +26.8%)(Actual results this trade = +4.2%; Actual results for 2025 = +34.0%)
10/29/25; 1:12 PM EST = +29; signal line is +26
10/29/25; 11:27 AM EST = +43; signal line is +26
10/29/25; 9:52 AM EST = +29; signal line is +26
10/29/25; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +27
10/28/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +26
10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +25
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +22
10/24/25; 9:37 AM EST = +59; signal line is +21
10/24/25; 8:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +19
10/21/25; 1:26 PM EST = +29; signal line is +17
10/21/25; 11:22 AM EST = +45; signal line is +17
10/21/25; 9:51 AM EST = +31; signal line is +15
10/21/25; 9:42 AM EST = +45; signal line is +15
10/20/25; 9:37 AM EST = +29; signal line is +15; go long 6711 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +14.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +29.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the euphoric bull rally continues in the stock market. The bulls are in full control of stocks with the algo number 34 points above the signal line. It is a simple set-up for the week forward.

Volatility and banks are all that matter. Bears need VIX above 16.96 and XLF below 52.86 to turn equities sour. If 1 of the 2 parameters turn bearish, consider the caution flag to be out. If both turn bearish, consider that the imminent turn to the short side is in play.

If both parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6772 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. VIX will be trading in the early hours tomorrow and XLF can be checked pre-market to find out what will happen in the day ahead. Obviously, if both metrics remain in the bull camp, stocks will remain elevated with more all-time record highs likely.

On Friday, 10/24/25, the SPX prints the highest number in history at 6807.11. It is time for the "SPX 6.8K" hats. The all-time closing high is 6791.69 on Friday so bears need volatility and banks to turn bearish and for the SPX to drop about 20 points if they want to growl.

The quant prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning and the month of October ends on Friday on Halloween. November trading begins next Monday. The Halloween anthem is the Monster Mash a fun song.

11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/28/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +25
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +22

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number a big 37 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising. Wheeee! Whoopie! The bulls are in party mode after the tame inflation data means the Fed will lower rates and print money for as far as the eye can see. That dough flows into the stock market making the rich richer. It is beautiful crony capitalism filth. Rejoice! It is the weekend and time to go to Party Town. Glenn told the bears to kiss his *ss; it is party time, drink some Fed wine, and buy stocks.

VIX fell out of bed when the inflation data dropped so the fix was in. Futures ran higher like a banshee. After the cash open, banks (XLF) catapult higher taking the stock market to new all-time record highs. Bulls are throwing confetti and buying equities without a care in the world after they shoot the Fed crack into their arm. Voodoo. They buy stocks when they feel the Fed snakebite enter their veins.

Since the VIX 16.96 and XLF 52.86 bull/bear lines in the sand were blown through, these will need to reverse if the bears want to growl. If these two metrics remain in the bull camp, it is nothing but upside for stocks as the euphoric bull party continues. 

VIX is at 16.47 moving dead flat for the last half hour. Bears need the VIX 49 cents higher or they got nothing. XLF is at 53.12 slapping the bears in the face. Bears need a drop of 26 cents in XLF to create stock market sogginess and negativity.

Bulls want to try and keep stocks elevated into hump day next week when Pope Powell will bring the tablets down from On High and tell international traders how to trade.

10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +22
10/24/25; 9:37 AM EST = +59; signal line is +21
10/24/25; 8:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +19
10/21/25; 1:26 PM EST = +29; signal line is +17

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market oddities continue. Today it was all about the banksters and commodities. Banks rallied helping bulls but then fell on their sword in the afternoon. Commodities failed helping bears but an hour or so later they recover and 'all will be forgiven' as Jenny sings. Red Bull & Hennessy.

The bulls are in charge of the stock market with the algo number 12 points above the signal line. Tomorrow is the same-o set-up as today. XRT and GTX are in the bull camp creating stock market upside while XLF and VIX are in the bear camp creating downside. One of the four will flinch and stocks will go in that direction.

Bears need XRT below 84.12 and/or GTX below 3814. Either one will do to create the imminent turn to the shortside. If 1 of the 2 turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6722 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Bulls need XLF above 52.86, where there was drama all day long today, to create the next leg higher in the stock market and more bullish euphoria. Bulls also need VIX below 16.96, now only a stick below current price, to begin party time with new all-time stock market records guaranteed. Choose your poison. Everybody has a Poison Heart. Salute to CBGB's.

Focus on XLF 52.86 and GTX 3814 since this was all the action today. Also, watch the VIX 16.96 line in the sand since the bulls are pushing volatility lower. These three will tell you what happens to the stock market tomorrow. You will know XLF and VIX before the cash open.

Bulls are trying to keep the stock market elevated until next Wednesday, 10/29/25, when Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High and tells global traders how to trade.

10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = 
10/21/25; 1:26 PM EST = +29; signal line is +17
10/21/25; 11:22 AM EST = +45; signal line is +17
10/21/25; 9:51 AM EST = +31; signal line is +15
10/21/25; 9:42 AM EST = +45; signal line is +15
10/20/25; 9:37 AM EST = +29; signal line is +15; go long 6711 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +14.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +29.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 6711 after this morning's opening bell. Retail stocks and commodities jump into the bull camp driving the indexes higher. Everyone is doing the Wooly Bully with Sam the Sham and the Pharaohs. Hard-core bikers grooved to Sam the Sham in the 1960's and early 70's. Watch it now! Watch it!

The path ahead becomes trickier with more moving parts. The quant is tracking retail stocks, commodities, banks and volatility. That is the whole ball of wax controlling stock market direction. Retail stocks and commodities are bullish creating market lift while banks and volatility are bearish creating a pall on the stock market. One or two of the metrics will flip sides and tell you the path ahead.

The bull/bar lines in the sand are XRT 84.08, GTX 3814, XLF 52.87 and VIX 16.97, respectively. The bulls goosed XRT and GTX that are comfortably in the bull camp. XLF is at 52.79 only pennies away from 52.87 that will create another big up leg in the stock market with bulls throwing confetti. XLF trades at 52.83 only 4 pennies away in the after-hours trading. If the VIX falls below 16.97, the bulls will receive more juice as stocks will then strive to make new all-time record highs.

Obviously, the bears need to keep XLF and VIX in their camp while at the same time start smacking XRT and GTX lower. Interestingly, bears need XRT to turn bearish to place the quant in position to go short. GTX turning bearish may not be enough unless it jogs above and below 3814 a couple-few times.

If retail stocks fail into the bear camp, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play and if the SPX loses 6690 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side.

On the last trade that ran for only 10 days, the algo program and actual trading post marginal losses. For the year that is getting long in the tooth, the SPX is up  +14% with the quant program up +25% and the actual trading generated by the quant up +30% outperforming the benchmark by over 2x. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SSO.

10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/20/25; 9:37 AM EST = +29; signal line is +15; go long 6711 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +14.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +29.8%)
10/20/25; 9:36 AM EST = +15; signal line is +16
10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +16
10/17/25; 3:38 PM EST = -1; signal line is +18
10/17/25; 2:25 PM EST = +15; signal line is +19
10/17/25; 12:44 PM EST = -1; signal line is +20
10/17/25; 11:52 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
10/17/25; 11:18 AM EST = -1; signal line is +22
10/17/25; 9:58 AM EST = +15; signal line is +23
10/17/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +24
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +25
10/16/25; 2:33 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26
10/16/25; 2:21 PM EST = -1; signal line is +28
10/16/25; 1:47 PM EST = +13; signal line is +29
10/16/25; 9:41 AM EST = +29; signal line is +31
10/15/25; 1:30 PM EST = +45; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
10/15/25; 1:18 PM EST = +31; signal line is +32
10/14/25; 11:56 AM EST = +45; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
10/14/25; 11:46 AM EST = +31; signal line is +33
10/14/25; 10:18 AM EST = +15; signal line is +34
10/14/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +35
10/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +37
10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +39
10/10/25; 11:33 AM EST = -1; signal line is +41
10/10/25; 11:04 AM EST = +13; signal line is +43; go short 6692 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +13.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.8%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.9%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +30.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short the stock market with the algo number 17 points below the signal line. That is not much considering that key parameters such as retail stocks, banks and commodities, are all teetering on the edge of their bull/bear lines in the sand.

The cage match between retail stocks and commodities had both sides switching camps to the other side, a draw, but as the Friday session played out, the negativity prevailed with retail stocks.

Retail stocks, banks and commodities are all that matter to the stock market right now. XRT 84.04 is the line in the sand and price is at 84.02. Do you think Keybot is a smart robot to call out these numbers before they occur? The bulls only need two cents higher to pull the retail stocks back into their camp and create lift in the broad stock market. The bears must move XRT lower if they want to growl.

XLF 52.92 is the banksters line in the sand with price at 52.18. Watch it in the premarket to see the story forward. Bulls win big if XLF moves above 52.92; the upside stock market rally will continue. The bears need to keep XLF in their camp and heading lower to bring more negativity into the stock market.

GTX 3814.40 is the line in the sand, er grain, for the commodities. Price is at 3804 another metric sitting on the line in the bear camp. The bulls need GTX above 3814 heading higher to pave the road to more stock market gains. The bears need to keep GTX in their camp and heading lower to maintain and increase stock market selling pressure.

If any 2 of the 3 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play. Also, if only one metric turns bullish, and then jogs back to bearish, then bullish again, the quant is likely only focused on this metric and it will decide the path forward. Of course, if all 3 flip bullish, stocks will be leaping higher in a euphoric confetti atmosphere.

Copper remains in the bull camp supporting the stock market. Bears need a -3.2% drop in the red metal to create carnage in stocks.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday shortly after the opening bell. Write a note to yourself to watch the retail stocks such as AMZN, WMT, banksters such as JPM, BAC and C, and regionals that are on shaky ground, KRE, and commodities, GTX and CRB, also DBA, that reflect goods inflation. Take a Letter, Maria.

10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +16
10/17/25; 3:38 PM EST = -1; signal line is +18
10/17/25; 2:25 PM EST = +15; signal line is +19
10/17/25; 12:44 PM EST = -1; signal line is +20
10/17/25; 11:52 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
10/17/25; 11:18 AM EST = -1; signal line is +22
10/17/25; 9:58 AM EST = +15; signal line is +23
10/17/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +24
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +25
10/16/25; 2:33 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. It is an active week for the quant and it is not over yet. Retail stocks, banks and commodities are running the show. This week, all three metrics flipped bullish in quick order, that typically guarantees a model flip to the long side but not this time. Today, the same three metrics flip negative creating the stock market selloff. This drama will continue.

The bears are controlling the stock market with the algo number only 13 points below the signal line nothing to write home about. Stocks are chopping waiting for a definitive move up or down.

XRT 84.05, XLF 52.92, VIX 16.88 and GTX 3814.60 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. The first 3 are in the bear camp creating negativity while GTX (commodities) is helping the bulls by a hair.

GTX is at 3818 so you can cough and it may slip back below the 3814.60 line in the sand that will bring more stock market selling.

XRT is at 83.96 only 9 pennies in the bear camp so you can burp and it can pop back above the 84.05 in a heartbeat.

Thus, Friday will be a cage match after the prescheduled number prints pre-market. Two will enter but only one will exit and stocks will go in that direction. It is retail stocks versus commodities, XRT vs. GTX.

Bears will begin biting hard and wreak havoc in the stock market into the weekend if GTX loses 3814.60. Bulls will get a foothold on the market and push stocks higher if they can push XRT above 84.05. One of them will flinch and tell you the market story.

Watch copper futures because a couple percent drop would spell trouble for stocks and a drop of -3% or more will likely tank the stock market.

Is the stock market six feet from the edge perhaps taking One Last Breath?

10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/25; 2:33 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26
10/16/25; 2:21 PM EST = -1; signal line is +28
10/16/25; 1:47 PM EST = +13; signal line is +29
10/16/25; 9:41 AM EST = +29; signal line is +31
10/15/25; 1:30 PM EST = +45; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
10/15/25; 1:18 PM EST = +31; signal line is +32
10/14/25; 11:56 AM EST = +45; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
10/14/25; 11:46 AM EST = +31; signal line is +33
10/14/25; 10:18 AM EST = +15; signal line is +34
10/14/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +35
10/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +37
10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +39

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flipped short on Friday after King Donnie tanked the stock market. The bears are controlling the stock market currently with the algo number 40 points below the signal line. The robot is tracking copper, commodities, banks, retail stocks and volatility as the key drivers of stock market direction. Copper is the only metric that is in the bull camp creating market lift; the other four are in the bear camp creating market angst and selling pressure.

The bull/bear lines in the sand, that will be a good judge for yinz for most of the week ahead, are CPER 29.58, GTX 3814.75, XLF 53.10, XRT 84, and VIX 16.60. Any move by these parameters across their lines in the sand sends the stock market in that same direction. Easy-peasy.

XRT is at 81 so that will be quite a lift to get back on the bull side. XLF is only about -2% below its critical number and that can be made up if the bankster earnings are joyful. It likely leads to long-time trouble and market downside if XLF cannot recover above 53.10 this week. Volatility shot skyward after Donnie's tariff comments and the bears are happy to see the VIX above 21. GTX is only a few dollars away from the bull/bear line in the sand so you can sneeze and it will pop back above.

CPER is +2.3% above the bull/bear line in the sand so the bulls will try to keep the red metal in their camp, otherwise, all hope will be lost for the stock market. Watch the copper futures.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean as the Pennsylvania leaves turn color and the Laurel Highlands lights-up in a brilliant Autumn display. California Dreamin'. They sure could sing.

XLF, GTX, VIX and CPER will tell the story for the week ahead. Check VIX and copper futures overnight for hints of what will happen in the US session. The bulls likely need all 3 metrics, banks, commodities, and volatility, to jump back into their camp to save the day and keep their rally hopes alive. Two of the three will likely not cut it. If copper drops more than -2%, it may place a crash on the table. It's fun.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. Banks, commodities and copper are the focus as the new week begins.

10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =-1; signal line is +39
10/10/25; 11:33 AM EST = -1; signal line is +41

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips short at SPX 6692 at 11:04 AM EST yesterday. A Black Friday occurs after President Trump slaps tariffs on China in retaliation for restrictions placed on rare earth minerals. The rift creates stock market angst.

The banksters failed first, then volatility, then commodities. Retail stocks were already floating in the toilet bowl. The robot has been champing at the bit to go short this month and finally finds the right entry. As always, stay alert for a potential whipsaw but the algo number is 42 points below the signal line a formidable deficit.

The quant is tracking commodities (GTX), volatility (VIX), and banks/financials (XLF). All 3 are in the bear camp creating market mayhem. The key bull/bear lines in the sand can be pulled from the quant tomorrow with the standard Sunday number.

On the last trade, that ran from late August to early October, a long trade for the Keybot the Quant robot, call it 2 months, the algorithm program gains almost +4% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains +7%. For the year thus far, with only 2-1/2 months of trading remaining, the benchmark S&P 500 is up almost +14%. The Keybot the Quant algo program is up about +25% this year and the actual trading is up a big +30% two times the benchmark. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's. The bulls are Saying Goodbye to the rally like Ondara. 

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 11:33 AM EST = -1; signal line is +41
10/10/25; 11:04 AM EST = +13; signal line is +43; go short 6692 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +13.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.8%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.9%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +30.4%)
10/10/25; 11:03 AM EST = +13; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 11:01 AM EST = +27; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST = +43; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 8:58 AM EST = +43; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 8:40 AM EST = +29; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 7:07 AM EST = +43; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 5:48 AM EST = +29; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
10/9/25; 3:22 PM EST = +43; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
10/9/25; 9:58 AM EST = +29; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 1:02 PM EST = +43; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:34 AM EST = +29; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:24 AM EST = +43; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 11:12 AM EST = +29; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 9:58 AM EST = +43; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 10:45 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = +45; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 7:51 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 7:07 AM EST = +45; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 4:58 AM EST = +59; signal line is +53
10/6/25; 4:32 AM EST = +45; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:17 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:10 PM EST = +45; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 5:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 3:06 AM EST = +45; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
9/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +59; signal line is +50
9/30/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +49
9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
9/26/25; 7:39 AM EST = +60; signal line is +46
9/26/25; 7:27 AM EST = +46; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 7:14 AM EST = +60; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 6:53 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 5:12 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 4:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43
9/25/25; 2:43 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42
9/25/25; 1:45 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 10:16 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 7:48 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
9/24/25; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
9/24/25; 12:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +37
9/24/25; 9:48 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
9/23/25; 3:50 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
9/23/25; 2:56 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/14/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/12/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/4/25; 10:23 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/4/25; 9:42 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 3:48 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 1:45 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 1:04 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:43 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 12:24 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:16 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 11:44 AM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/3/25; 11:31 AM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:56 PM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/2/25; 2:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:18 PM EST = +14; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 1:44 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/2/25; 1:38 PM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:48 AM EST = +14; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:10 AM EST = +28; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:57 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/2/25; 9:56 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 8:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +36
8/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/22/25; 10:02 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35; go long 6448 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +21.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +23.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market drama heats-up. Commodities are strong that will likely lead to goods inflation. The robot is champing at the bit to go short and fixated on retail stocks, volatility and banks. The bears want control of the stock market with the algo number 9 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not fully latch yet to permit the move.

If the SPX drops below 6718 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

Retail stocks are holding down the bear camp with the XRT 84.74 line in the sand. Price is at 84.51 creating bearishness in the stock market.

Volatility and banks are helping the bulls maintain stock market buoyancy and create the new all-time record high at 6755.64 and new all-time closing high at 6753.72 yesterday, 10/8/25.

VIX 16.57 is the bull/bear line in the sand and it is trading in real-time at 16.50 only 7 pennies on the bull side. XLF 53.20 is the bull/bear line for the banksters with price at 53.51 only 31 cents away from disaster. The banks fell yesterday and no one noticed. XLF fell to 53.29 only 9 pennies away from creating market mayhem before recovering.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? Bears win and the quant will likely flip short if the SPX loses 6718. If VIX pops back above 16.57 heading higher, stocks will deteriorate. If XLF loses 53.20, it is lights-out for the stock market that will tumbling lower. If stocks drop but the VIX and XLF remain bullish, the bears got nothing.

If stocks rally, but the VIX moves above 16.57 and remains above, stocks will reverse and move lower. Bulls need XRT above 84.74 to prove that they got game. If stocks rally, but XRT remains below 84.74, the bulls got nothing and stocks will reverse and start dropping.

VIX is at 16.48 (bullish). XRT sits at 84.51 (bearish). XLF is 53.51 unchanged in early trading (bullish). Let the festivities begin. One of these three will flinch. Have a nice day. Doris Day. Que Sera Sera.

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/8/25; 1:02 PM EST = +43; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:34 AM EST = +29; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:24 AM EST = +43; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 11:12 AM EST = +29; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after an exciting start to the week. Monday was more volatility games with the quant printing 6 numbers. Today the robot prints two numbers potentially paving the way to Hades. The algo number is 24 points below the signal line so the bears are champing at the bit to take control of the stock market. Alas, the internal parameters would not latch to permit the move, and then they all latched, but needed to hold it for 2 more minutes, but could not. All this drama occurred around 11 AM EST-ish this morning.

Volatility, banks and commodities remain key but retail stocks come out of left field tumbling lower down the hill for the last couple days, like Uncle Ralph at the summer picnic after he drank one too many highballs. XRT 84.65 is the bull/bear line in the sand that was vaporized this morning leading to much of the weakness in the stock market. Everyone is looking at tech and AI stocks but they forgot to look at retail stocks.

VIX jumped above the key 16.57 bull/bear line in the sand (remember, these numbers are constantly being calculated) and kept running above 17 today creating more stock market angst. Despite both retail stocks and volatility shunning the bull camp and now joining the bears, the robot did not flip short yet. If the SPX loses the 6700 level tomorrow, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. This is a 15-point drop so check the S&P futures overnight to see if -15 points are on the board to set up Wednesday.

The bull/bear line in the sand for commodities is GTX 3823 and XLF 53.23 is the line in the sand for the banksters. It is a tag team match for hump day; retail stocks and volatility, in the bear corner, versus commodities and banks, in the bull corner. Interestingly, the bulls need both XRT back above 84.65 and VIX below 16.57 to save the day. Bulls are toast if they cannot drag these two metrics back into their camp.

Bears need the SPX below 6700 so the model can flip short. Also, GTX losing 3823 and XLF losing 53.23 will send stocks to Hell. If stocks rally, but retail stocks and volatility remain in the bear camp, the stock market will roll back over to the downside and fall apart. If stocks sell off, but a sustainable sub 6700 SPX cannot be attained, the quant will likely remain long. If stocks sell off, and XLF 53.23 and GTX 3823 will not fail, the bears do not have much oomph and stocks should chop sideways.

The SPX prints a new all-time high a 6754.49 today, the highest number in history. SPX 6700, retail stocks and volatility will tell you the story for tomorrow. It may be an historic day. Are the bears staging a New York Comeback a la Lucinda with Bruce singing back-up vocals? Two great songwriters. Lucinda took a stroke and cannot play guitar anymore but she can still sing.

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/7/25; 11:12 AM EST = +29; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 9:58 AM EST = +43; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 10:45 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = +45; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 7:51 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 7:07 AM EST = +45; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 4:58 AM EST = +59; signal line is +53
10/6/25; 4:32 AM EST = +45; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as volatility plays more games. VIX went above the 16.87 bull/bear line in the sand so stocks started falling apart. In comes the Fed, wrestling Uncle Vix to the ground and then maintaining their jackboot on his neck allowing stocks to recover. Alas, like a beachball that you try to hold underwater, the VIX pops higher again during the last 15 minutes of Friday trading but remains pennies below the key 16.87 at 16.65 in the bull camp. The Beach Boys down in Kokomo; no, they did not sing that 'Vermont's a rotten state' (like many people think they hear) they are actually singing Martinique, 'that Montserrat mystique'.

Banks and commodities are also only small amounts away from their bull/bear lines in the sand. Watch XLF 53.12 and GTX 3815, respectively. On Thursday, the bears pushed the banks down to XLF 53.06 but could not hold it.

The path forward depends upon VIX 16.87, XLF 53.12 and GTX 3815. All three are bullish creating buoyancy in the stock market. If any 1 of the 3 turn bearish, and the SPX falls below 6706 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If 2 or all 3 turn bearish, it will likely be the start of stocks falling a long ways. Bulls only need to keep all 3 metrics in their camp and they remain on easy street swigging down Fed wine each day and buying any stock with a heartbeat.

The algo number is only 7 measly points above the signal line not exactly a ringing endorsement of the record-setting rally. On Friday, 10/3/25, the SPX prints a new all-time high at 6750.87, wowza, and a new all-time closing high at 6715.79. Stocks are a Runaway as Del sings.

Keybot prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. 

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:17 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:10 PM EST = +45; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 5:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bull party continues. Doctor Copper jumps off the gurney, runs out of the emergency room, and proclaims, "buy, buy, buy!" The banks are a wee bit soggy, hinting that they may become sick and in need of a hospital bed.

Yesterday was a repeat of the other day. In the pre-market hours when VIX is already trading, it spiked higher with S&P futures collapsing over -50 points, but a couple hours later all was fine. Volatility was pushed lower and held down with a Fed jackboot so stocks float higher.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6718.48 and new all-time closing high at 6711.20 on 10/1/25. October, the month when stock market crashes tend to happen, starts off with a euphoric all-time historic high. Traders celebrate with SPX 6.7K hats and throwing confetti. The Fed wine and AI booze is flowing like water. Wall Street analysts say SPX 7K is a lock. The screenprinter, busy preparing SPX 6.8K hats, is happy as a pig in mud, counting on the steady business well into the future.

The stock market direction is currently controlled by volatility, banks and commodities. The bull/bear lines in the sand are VIX 16.87, XLF 53.12 and GTX 3817, respectively. All three are bullish creating buoyancy in the stock market (remember, volatility moves inverse to the stock market).

VIX is at 16.01 as this is typed less than 2 hours before the Thursday cash open, so the bulls are feeling good about the path forward. XLF is flat as a newlywed's souffle at 53.41 in pre-market trading only 29 pennies away from creating market mayhem. GTX begins at 3875.

As long as VIX is below 16.87 and XLF is above 53.12, the bull party continues. If either metric turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX then loses 6656, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If both parameters turn bearish, stocks will be falling like rocks. Roctober. I Wanna Rock.

10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST =
10/1/25; 5:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 3:06 AM EST = +45; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
9/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +59; signal line is +50
9/30/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +49
9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48

Update Added Friday Morning, 10/3/25, at 7:30 AM EST: All of the above holds and watch SPX 6693 for when Keybot the Quant may flip short.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 12 points above the signal line. The robot was active last week after a couple-few weeks of idling along. The quant prints 8 numbers on Friday including the prescheduled number.

Volatility, copper and banks are the three key drivers of the stock market currently. All 3 are in the bull camp creating the never-ending buoyancy in equities. The bears needed 2 of the 3 metrics to turn bearish to take the ball away from the bulls but alas, copper and banks are firmly bullish giving bears no hope.

But Friday some interesting action occurs. If you were watching the VIX 16.97 line in the sand, price kept oscillating above and below in the early morning hours. Each time that the VIX price jogs above and below 16.97, the quant's algo number and signal line converge. Interestingly, the bears had it on a silver platter Friday morning, but could not convert one more jog move that would have placed the quant in position to go short.

But something important occurs. The robot no longer needs 2 of the 3 parameters to turn bearish; it only needs 1 of the 3. The bull/bear lines in the sand are VIX 16.97, CPER 29.07 and XLF 52.98. Bears need one of the three to turn bearish and the quant will be in position to flip short (consider the imminent turn to be at play).

On Friday, the Fed stepped in during the afternoon and crushed volatility, pushing Uncle Vix to the ground and placing a jackboot on his neck to hold him down, so stocks rallied into the weekend. The VIX retreated to 15.29 allowing bulls to puff their chests out all weekend long.

Since volatility is the main focal point, watch the VIX in the early morning hours East Coast time to see what the stock market will do later that day. If VIX remains below 16.97, the bulls rule and bears got nothing. If VIX pops above 16.97 heading higher, the wheels will fall off the stock market.

Just when the VIX appears to be the major determinant of the path ahead, copper and banks may surprise and collapse to create negativity. Copper futures need to fall -1.0% and the XLF needs to drop -1.7% to turn bearish and create market mayhem. Those are not big drops that may occur especially with copper.

If 1 of the 3 metrics above turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 6604 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

There is lots of market craziness occurring these days. The month and Q3 ends on Tuesday and October trading and Q4 begins on Wednesday. Keybot prints 3 prescheduled numbers this week. The jobs circus will be back in town on Friday. Pay close attention to volatility and copper since they will tell the story ahead. The bulls are still Stayin' Alive. Ah, ah, ah, ah, stayin' alive, stayin' alive.

10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/30/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
9/26/25; 7:39 AM EST = +60; signal line is +46
9/26/25; 7:27 AM EST = +46; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 7:14 AM EST = +60; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 6:53 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 5:12 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 4:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43
9/25/25; 2:43 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42
9/25/25; 1:45 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 10:16 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 7:48 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
9/24/25; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 22 points above the signal line. The bulls are walking around with their chests puffed out now that they have pulled Doctor Copper back into their camp. The bulls sent copper higher while keeping volatility low.

The VIX was rising and stalling markets late morning but at about 1 PM EST, the VIX was squashed like a bug. It is surprising the day ended negative for the SPX since higher copper and lower volatility are two bullish metrics.

The bulls expect higher stocks ahead and they are in the drivers seat. The bears have zero hope unless they can push copper lower, push banks lower, and/or pull volatility higher. The quant is tracking CPER 29.07, XLF 52.97 and VIX 16.97 as the key bull/bear lines in the sand. All 3 are currently bullish creating stock market joy.

The bears need 2 of the 3 metrics to flip into their camp to create enough negativity to flip the model short. If CPER falls below 29.07, and/or if XLF falls below 52.97, and/or VIX moves above 16.97, two of the three must occur, and if the SPX drops below 6622 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

You can watch copper and VIX futures overnight and then check XLF in the pre-market tomorrow morning. You will know what will happen before the opening bell rings. Pretty Anita knows how to ring that bell.

9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/24/25; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
9/24/25; 12:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +37
9/24/25; 9:48 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
9/23/25; 3:50 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The robot showed that it is still alive and kicking spitting out two numbers today. It's alive! It's alive! The algo number is  8 points above the signal line so all is groovy for the bulls but the bears were growling today due to elevated volatility.

The VIX popped above 17, above the key bull/bear line in the sand at VIX 16.97, identified by the quant. This pop in vol created the swoon in stocks and then late-day the Fed tackled Uncle Vix pushing him back down to the floor below 16.97 so stocks recover.

Commodities rallied today. Banks remain buoyant. Retail stocks are starting to get wobbly knees. It is a new cage match tomorrow between Doctor Copper and Uncle Vix. Two will enter but only one will exit and the stock market will follow the winner.

The bulls need to keep the VIX below 16.97 while at the same time pumping CPER above 29.02 heading higher. This will unleash a new leg higher for the bull rally.

The bears need to keep copper weak with CPER below 29.02 while at the same time catapulting the VIX above 16.97 that will create automatic market mayhem. Since it failed today, and then the bulls saved the day, the front line is slightly weakened, so the bears will attack again and see if they can bust up through VIX 16.97 for good sending stocks over the cliff.

If VIX overtakes 16.97 running above 17, and the SPX drops below 6646, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. Tomorrow may be an important day.

The SPX prints a new all-time high today, 9/23/25, at 6699.52, only 48 pennies from 6700. The screenprinter already delivered the large cardboard box with 500 "SPX 6.7K" hats ready for distribution. Alas, the S&P 500 fell on its sword after the record high so the all-time closing high remains at 6693.75 on 9/22/25.

Watch copper and volatility. One of them will flinch. You can watch the futures overnight and will know the answer before the opening bell for the cash session. Bulls need higher copper and lower vol. Bears need lower copper and higher vol. Two will go to one. U2 sings "One."

9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/23/25; 3:50 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
9/23/25; 2:56 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls are kicking arse and taking names. The stock market is one big euphoric par-tay, all day, each day, and the bulls say it will continue forever. The algo number is 9 points above the signal line enough for the bulls to maintain control of the stock market. The robot idled along last week only printing the prescheduled number.

Chips launch into the stratosphere creating higher stock indexes and rampant optimism that AI will solve all the worlds problems. The banks run higher creating further market joy and happiness.

Interestingly, bulls need higher copper to guarantee more upside bullish fun but, despite the new all-time high at 6671.82 and new all-time closing high at 6664.36, Doctor Copper remains sick and stays in the bear camp for now.

Copper and commodities are the main metrics controlling stock market direction right now. Copper is creating negativity in stocks while commodities are creating positivity in equities. Bulls need CPER above 29.10 to throw confetti and begin a new stock market orgy where the sky is the limit.

Bears need GTX below 3792 to create market sadness and selling. If GTX fails, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 6630, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Copper and commodities enter the cage match but only one will exit and take the stock market in that direction. The euphoric rally will stall if CPER 29.10 cannot be attained (bulls need this to signal blue skies and rainbows ahead). Bulls need a +1.8% rise in copper while bears need a -1.4% drop in commodities. The table is set.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. If the VIX pops above 17.27, it is lights-out for stocks. Bulls are fine if the VIX remains below 17.27. VIX begins at 15.45. Who will be the Lucky Man this week?

9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/14/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after an uneventful week. The quant is idling along only printing the prescheduled number last week with the bulls in full control taking the stock market to new record heights. The algo number is only 9 points above the signal line.

The all-time record high is 6600.21 on Friday, 9/12/25. Ding, ding, ding. The screenprinter was rushed to print the "SPX 6.6K" hats and in his haste slipped during the delivery dropping the caps into a mud puddle on Wall and Broad. The all-time closing high is 6587.47 on 9/11/25.

Banks, copper, commodities and volatility are running the show with Dr Copper the only metric causing negativity in the stock market right now. Bulls need CPER above 29.23 to continue the upside joy in equities and new record highs. Copper moving into the bull camp would be a big deal.

On the other side, bears need XLF below 52.70, GTX below 3784, and/or VIX above 17.60, any one will do, to created market mayhem. Interestingly, the CPER, XLF and GTX parameters are each about 2% away from the bull/bear lines in the sand. Copper needs to gain about +2% to signal bullish joy while banks or commodities need to drop about -2% each to create market negativity.

Thus, check copper futures overnight to see if they are up over +2% to signal more bullish fun ahead. Also, watch volatility because a VIX moving above 17.60 will lock-in downside misery for stocks.

The table is set. It is copper versus banks. Two enter the cage match but only one will exit. If only one of the three bullish metrics turn bearish, and if the SPX drops below 6579 moving lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The robot prints one prescheduled number this week on Wednesday morning the same day that Fed Chairman Powell will bring the tablets down from On High to tell global traders how to trade (rate decision and press conference). The bulls are smiling joyously expecting stocks to continue higher and higher. Watch the banks. Make Me Smile.

9/21/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/14/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/12/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls and bears are set to battle for another week. Vacation season is over and it is time for everyone to get back to work. The bulls pump chips to maintain stock market buoyancy just like the banks a couple weeks ago. The banksters are now back in play. Banks, chips, commodities, volatility and copper are the key market metrics moving stocks currently.

Copper is in the bear camp with the other parameters in the bull camp preventing the stock market from dropping. XLF 52.50, SOX 5590, GTX 3777, VIX 18.12, and CPER 29.30, respectively, are the bull/bear lines in the sand currently identified by the quant. Volatility spiked into the bear camp last Tuesday but that was stick-saved by the bulls crushing the VIX lower again in quick order (VIX moves inversely to stocks).

XLF begins at 53.07 so bears need a 57-cents drop in price to create stock market negativity. That is a -1.1% drop so check the banks pre-market to see if they are this soggy. If so, the bears will be coming to play. If not, stocks will likely remain buoyant.

If the XLF loses 53.07, or one of the other 3 parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6444, Keybot the Quant will likely flip to the short side. It should be an interesting week ahead. Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. Watch the banksters. Money.

9/14/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/12/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/4/25; 10:23 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/4/25; 9:42 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 3:48 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market with the algo number 10 points above the signal line. The US stock market is a knock-down, drag-out fight between the bulls and the bears trading punches during the hump day session.

It is all about the chips. No, not those chips; the semiconductors. They failed just before munchtime but recovered, then failed, then recovered, then failed, you get the picture. Watch the SOX 5567 bull/bear line in the sand.

If bulls keep SOX above 5567, the easy street upside rally for equities will continue with the Fed wine flowing like water. If bears push the SOX below 5567, you will notice a serious deterioration in the stock market and the potential path to blood and carnage ahead. The chips are for all the marbles.

If bears drive chips lower, watch VIX 18.18 to see if the selling has legs. Also, XLF 52.40 is a line in the sand that will guarantee carnage ahead. If the SOX loses 5567, and remains below, and the SPX drops below 6416 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. S&P futures are up +9 as this is typed about 4 hours before the US opening bell for the regular session.

Stocks may spend another day idling, dancing to and fro, since the US Monthly Jobs Report drops in about 27 hours (that will impact the Fed rate decision on 9/17/25). Dancing in the Dark with the Boss, the Big Man on sax (Clarence), Max Weinburg banging the skins, and pretty actress Courtney Cox before she was famous.

9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/3/25; 3:48 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 1:45 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 1:04 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:43 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 12:24 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:16 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 11:44 AM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/3/25; 11:31 AM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:56 PM EST = +44; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after a wild day to begin the holiday-shortened week that will end with a Jobs Report crescendo. The quant prints a dozen numbers today but goes nowhere, man. The algo number is 11 points above the signal line.

Today was a battle between chips and volatility. The VIX jumped into the bear camp followed by semiconductors causing the flush lower in the SPX at the opening bell. But the pair turn positive again, then negative again, then positive again, then negative again, then positive again. The robot's internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move to the short side so the quant remains long.

VIX 18.23 and SOX 5565 dictate stock market direction currently. Both are in the bull camp so the bear's only need one to turn bearish to position the quant to go short. The difficult road for the bears tomorrow is that the SPX likely needs to drop below 6361 to allow the quant to go short and that is a long way down.

If volatility spikes, and chips collapse, like this morning, and one other parameter fails (maybe banks?), the quant may flip short immediately. For now, the bulls remain in possession of the stock market ball but it is difficult to hold with hooves.

Chips and volatility are controlling stock market direction currently with copper, commodities and banks waiting in the wings hoping to influence equities going forward. Today is a wild start to the month. Wake Me Up When September Ends.

9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/2/25; 2:56 PM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/2/25; 2:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:18 PM EST = +14; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 1:44 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/2/25; 1:38 PM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:48 AM EST = +14; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:10 AM EST = +28; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:57 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/2/25; 9:56 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 8:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 8 points above the signal line.  Last week was a lot of stock market drama but the robot idled through the week unimpressed only printing the two prescheduled numbers.

US markets are closed tomorrow, Monday, 9/1/25, for the Labor Day holiday, the unofficial end to summertime fun. The quant continues tracking commodities, chips and banks as the three key metrics currently dictating stock market direction. Commodities pump higher over the last couple weeks that will lead to ongoing high prices at the supermarket.

Bears need either GTX below 3770, SOX (chips) below 5555, and/or XLF (banksters) below 52.35 to create stock market negativity.  Commodities and semiconductors need to drop about -2% each and banks need to drop about -3% to help the bears.

Bulls need stronger copper and must push the red metal about +4% higher to maintain the stock market joy a formidable task since Doctor Copper is lying on a gurney in the emergency room.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number during this holiday-shortened week on Friday morning. Watch the chips and commodities like a hawk since they will tell you the fate of stocks ahead. Remember, chips failed last Wednesday around 11 AM EST, but quickly recovered. That was the first shot across the bow. Happy Labor Day. The human robots with mundane lives are always Working for the Weekend a la Loverboy.

9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +36
8/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side since the Powell speech on Friday but the algo number is only 8 measly points above the signal line. Chips, banks and commodities are driving the stock market these days. Doctor Copper is lying in a coffin but traders do not care since they are too busy buying stocks.

The bulls are in control and it will be interesting to see if more record highs are ahead for the SPX.

The bears need SOX below 5520, now at 5754, to create market negativity (about a -4% drop; semiconductors failed last week but if you blinked you missed it; the buy the dip crowd brought price quickly higher again).

The bears need XLF below 52.00, now at 53.57, to create negativity (about a -3% drop). The bears need GTX below 3757, now at 3818, to create negativity (a -1.6% drop). Thus, commodities may likely be the metric that reverses the bullish joy and reintroduces stock market selling pressure since it is the easiest metric to turn for the bears.

The bulls are on easy street with bears needing a -1.6% drop in commodities, and/or a -3% drop in the banksters, and/or a -4% drop in semiconductors, to retake control. Choose your poison. Poison Heart with Joey's haunting voice.

Keybot prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning, both one-half hour after the opening bells for the cash trade. The month of August trading ends on Friday (EOM) and September trading begins Tuesday, 9/2/25, after the Labor Day holiday, 9/1/25, when US markets will be closed.

8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/22/25; 10:02 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35; go long 6448 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +21.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +23.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull camp at 10 AM EST Friday morning at 6448 as Pope Powell brought the tablets down from On High and told everyone a rate cut is locked-in for 9/17/25. The crowd goes wild celebrating the crony capitalism system pumping stocks higher. The SPX was up over one hundo points intraday on the euphoria.

Interestingly, despite the rampant euphoric bull party, the S&P 500 did not print a new all-time high. The all-time record high remains at 6481.34 on 8/15/25, the prior Friday; traders must be happy for the weekend on Friday's. The all-time closing high remains at 6468.54 on 8/14/25. The SPX could have easily poked out a new record high and new record closing high but did not. Monday will be interesting.

The quant was champing at the bit to go long and the second Powell opened his pie hole it was off to the races. As previously explained, chips, banks and commodities are the three metrics most impacting stock market direction  currently. The stick-save with the chips and commodities this week paved the way for Powell to flap his dovish wings.

On the last trade that ran for about 3 weeks, the quant program and actual trading each lose a couple percent. On the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up about +10%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +21% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +23% outperforming the benchmark by 2x. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SSO.

Since the banksters are running to the moon, the bears likely need weaker chips and/or commodities to wrestle back the market football. The algo number is only 9 points above the signal line. The end of August trading (EOM) is next Friday.

8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/22/25; 10:02 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35; go long 6448 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +21.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +23.4%)
8/20/25; 11:17 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 11:13 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:52 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
8/20/25; 10:28 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 10:18 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34
8/20/25; 9:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains short
8/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/15/25; 10:01 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/12/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
8/11/25; 2:01 PM EST = +44; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 1:43 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38
8/11/25; 12:31 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 11:55 AM EST = +30; signal line is +39
8/11/25; 11:27 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 10:47 AM EST = +30; signal line is +41
8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 2:39 PM EST = +30; signal line is +43
8/8/25; 10:59 AM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 10:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +44
8/8/25; 10:06 AM EST = +44; signal line is +45
8/7/25; 11:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +46
8/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +47
8/6/25; 3:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 12:28 PM EST = +44; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 10:29 AM EST = +28; signal line is +49
8/4/25; 10:19 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50
8/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +50
8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +51
8/1/25; 9:37 AM EST = +12; signal line is +53
8/1/25; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +54
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +55
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +56
7/30/25; 3:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +56; go short 6348 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +7.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +22.7%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +25.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long after a choppy day. The algo number is 9 points above the signal line so the quant wants to go long but cannot since the internal parameters did not fully latch. If the SPX rallies above 6408 moving higher tomorrow, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

If you are bullish, you do not want a gap-up day. Instead, a slow steady move higher would be a better set-up for the quant to flip long. If a gap-up move occurs, it may trigger a timer that will delay the turn to the long side by about 90 minutes.

The surprise today was the failure of the semiconductors; the 'chips were down' literally and figuratively. Instead of the ongoing battle between the commodes and the banksters, today was a battle between the commodes and chips. The SOX fell below 5516 that is major trouble for the stock market as per the quant, and you saw what happened.

GTX, commodities, rallied at first but then fell on their sword below 3756 also in that 10:49 to 10:52 AM time. Stocks were toast but the invisible hand came in at 11:15 AM-ish to save the day pulling both parameters back into the bull camp sending equities higher off the lows.

Bears need SOX under 5516, GTX under 3756 and/or XLF below 52.87. The banksters remain elevated and chips recovered far off the 5516 line in the sand, so commodities will be the most important parameter to the stock market tomorrow. Bears desperately need one of the three parameters to fail and GTX is likely their best shot. Hit Me With Your Best Shot. Pat knew how to shake her assets.

The bulls win with SPX 6408 and higher so watch S&P futures for a potential +12 point rally overnight. The bears win with weaker commodities, or semiconductors, or banks, any one will do, and if 2 or all 3 turn negative, stocks will collapse.

Thursday should be an interesting day ahead of Chairman Powell's speech on Friday morning from Jackson Hole. Jackson should be playing a gig for the banksters in Jackson Hole since the markets may be Running on Empty. Back-up singer Rosemary Butler is a killer voice.

8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/25; 11:17 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 11:13 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:52 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
8/20/25; 10:28 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 10:18 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34
8/20/25; 9:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains short
8/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34