STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant turns to the bear side at SPX 6846. Does that ring a bell? Yes, that is the exact number the year started at so it has been a 20-day nothing-burger. Volatility and banks are controlling stock market direction currently. VIX 17.00 and XLF 54.28 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. VIX price is above and XLF price is below so both are negative and creating bearishness in the stock market.

The buy-the-dip crowd is active right now and XLF 54.28 will tell you the story. Traders can buy all they want but if the XLF remains below 54.28, and VIX above 17.00, stocks are going to remains soggy. Bears need weaker utes and retail stocks to create a flush lower. Bears need UTIL under 1067 to create market carnage. Bears need XRT below 87.20 that will create a strong leg lower in stocks.

Bulls simply need to get XLF back above 54.28 and all will be fine. The bulls will then work on pushing VIX below 17.00 and the upside party in stocks would continue. Thus, stay alert for a whipsaw but the quant likely needs both vol and banks in the bull camp before it would flip long.

On the last trade that ran for 8 trading days, the quant program loses -1.4% and the actual trading, generated by the quant, loses -1.3%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, that is the US stock market, is dead flat. The algo program is down about a percent and the actual trading is flat on the year. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters SH remaining in the 1x ETF's to reduce risk in these choppy whipsaw markets. Whip It good. 

1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST =
1/20/26; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28
1/20/26; 9:30 AM EST = +26; signal line is +29; go short 6846 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -0.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.1%)
1/19/26; 3:06 AM EST = +26; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/15/26; 9:39 AM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/14/26; 3:35 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 3:21 PM EST = +10; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 6:45 AM EST = +10; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 6:31 AM EST = +24; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 5:41 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/13/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +28
1/9/26; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +27
1/9/26; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +26; go long 6940 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = +1.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but champing at the bit to go short after King Donnie creates more turmoil around the world. This time it is Greenland drama that Donnie creates out of spite for not receiving his little peace medal from a committee in Norway. What color is the sky in his world?

S&P futures are tanking on the Donnie drama down -80 points. US markets are closed today for the Martin Luther/Don/Rodney/Billie Jean King Day. A lot can happen over the next day before US stocks come back on line. King Donnie waves his hand sending stocks in one direction or the other likely based on the positioning of his wealthy friends and family. Such is crony capitalism.

Utilities, volatility and banks will dictate the outcome over the next couple days. If Trumpski backtracks on his Greenland temper tantrum, you will see the VIX fall below 16.87 signaling the all-clear for stocks to rally. If the VIX remains above 16.87, US stocks are headed lower.

The banks can be used as a gauge, along with vol, of stock market pain. XLF 54.30 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price begins at 54.44. As the Donnie drama plays out, if XLF does not drop below 54.30, the bears are no real threat. Stocks would be expected to muddle sideways with a slight upward bias.

If XLF fails at 54.30, that is serious business, and indicates that US stocks are sliding down the rabbit hole of doom. If stocks are shedding points as futures indicate, watch the UTIL 1065 bull/bear line in the sand. Price begins at 1099 so the bulls are content sitting 34 points above, however, if the utilities fail, a stock market crash is on the table.

Thus, bulls need VIX below 16.87 to breathe a sigh of relief. Bears need to keep the VIX above 16.87, now at 18.70, to maintain negativity. Next, bears need XLF below 54.30 that will kick in more pain and misery for stocks. Next, the bears need UTIL below 1065 to open up a trap-door for the stock market where stocks will be tumbling bigtime lower in earnest.

If the SPX drops below 6925, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, and that appears to be on the table. You have to wait and see what the 1's and 0's say, however, because internal parameters will have to fully latch to permit the move.

Today and tomorrow will be interesting as all the corrupt people on Earth meet in Davos to keep their lies straight and plan future nefarious activities. Davos is where the billionaires tell the millionaires how to live. Let the festivities begin. Will the Shiny Happy People remain shiny and happy? 

1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST =
1/19/26; 3:06 AM EST = +26; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/15/26; 9:39 AM EST = +40; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the carnival drama this week with the algo number 11 points above the signal line. The choppy slop continues. The bulls recover today pulling the banksters and volatility back into their camp.

The gap down move Wednesday morning was not in the bears favor. It would have been better to slowly drift lower and then fail. Most of the time, when a gap-up, or gap-down, move occurs at the opening bell, price will typically retrace back to where the gap started and this time was no different. The quant triggers a gap-down timer and when this expired, the robot was in no mood to flip short. It is far better for the gap moves to occur during the session (rather than exactly at the opening bell) when they will carry more clout. Wednesday was a bear trap.

Bulls push utilities higher a positive indication for stocks with UTIL at 1103. Bulls must push UTIL above 1124 tomorrow and then above 1140 for all of next week a tall order but they are doing a good job of driving utes higher. The bigtime Wal Street SPX targets way above 7K will not occur unless UTIL takes out the utility numbers above.

The bears have to pull the banks and vol back into their camp or they got nothing. Bears need XLF below 54.30 and/or VIX above 16.88. Either one will do to create negativity. If 1 of the 2 turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play and if the SPX falls below 6938 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

XLF begins at 54.37 on 7 pennies in the bull camp so watch it like a hawk. Check it in the pre-market since it tells you which way stocks are headed. Bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. Bears need to create soggy banksters and a drop of only about 7 points in the SPX and that would be enough to flip short. Friday will be an interesting day to end the week.

Watch XLF 54.30, VIX 16.88 and SPX 6938. JJ Cale croaked about a year or more ago, here he is playing with Clapton at the Crossroads, Clapton's party each year. Some called JJ's unique playing style chicken scratching. Clapton is considered one of the best guitarists in history and he was asked who was his mentor. Eric said there is only one man that was my mentor and confidant in music and guitar; JJ Cale. You can tell those guys enjoy playing together. JJ's wife is playing rhythm guitar off to the side; she's a sweetheart. JJ's legs were not as strong since he was getting old, so he used the stool to lean on, but then he was having fun and standing, but he had to stoop over to sing into the mic that was not set up for that, he is laughing his *ss off about it, these guys are the best in the world, they are just jammin' and havin' fun all day long. Call Me the Breeze.

1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/15/26; 9:39 AM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/14/26; 3:35 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 3:21 PM EST = +10; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 6:45 AM EST = +10; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 6:31 AM EST = +24; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 5:41 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/13/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. Utilities and volatility remain in the bull camp creating buoyancy in the stock market. However, banks are beaten down after King Donnie proclaims a ceiling on credit card interest. The banksters create today's negativity.

Tomorrow is easy. As banks go, so goes the stock market. XLF 54.29 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price ruptures this level this afternoon creating bearishness in the stock market. Price is at 54.23 so you will know right away which way the stock market will go. XLF will trade in the pre-market.

The bears need the SPX to drop below 6939 trending lower and the quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn is in the title line.

Hump day is a cage match. Two enter but only one will exit and stocks will go in that direction. Bulls need to push XLF back above 54.29 and higher and they have nothing to worry about; equities will continue rallying. Bears need SPX below 6939 to flip the model short so watch the S&P futures to see if -25 points are on tap, or not.

The stage is set. The bears already have one paw in the door prying it open. The bears need SPX 6939. If VIX moves above 16.88, that will create more stock market carnage. If UTIL loses 1064, stocks will collapse down the rabbit hole of pain and misery.

The bulls need stronger banks and financial stocks like insurers, and the XLF above 54.29, to throw confetti and celebrate another stick-save for the stock market.

As a side note, check the $GTX chart at stockcharts.com. Commodities, goods inflation, is breaking out higher as everyone is relaxed about inflation after this morning's data. Inflation has been difficult to forecast because in recent months it jukes when you think it will jive, and visa versa, like trying to trade choppy markets. In about a month, there will likely be a noticeable pop in inflation. Granted, the bulk of the breakout is due to the outrageous rise in base and precious metals, but buying a silver bracelet for your honey just got more expensive so did a lot of gadgets and electronics. Was she worth it? Sometimes, You Never Can Tell.

1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/13/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +28

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long with the algo number 12 points above the signal line. The bulls pull off another stick-save after the UTIL 1063 trap-door opened and began swallowing-up the stock market. UTIL was jammed higher on Friday with AI hype talk creating the joy in equities.

UTIL 1063 remains the key bull/bear line in the sand with price starting at 1069. Will she fail again?

The bulls are faced with a formidable task. To prove they got game, the bulls must push UTIL, or DJU, above 1124.60 this week, another bull/bear line in the sand. That is a 55-point gain in utilities that the bulls need; can they do it?

The bulls are in charge of stock market direction currently. Bulls need UTIL above 1124 to take stocks to all the high predictions that Wall Street says are on the come.

Bears simply need UTIL to drop below 1063 to create stock market turmoil. If UTIL loses 1063, and the SPX drops below 6918, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, however, this is a formidable task for the bears having to send the S&P 500 about 48 points lower. This is the situation creating choppy slop.

The market may take out UTIL 1063 Monday and then wait until Tuesday to rain down Hell. The bulls have a tough road to hoe to send utes strongly higher but for the week ahead, simply watch if there is strength appearing in utilities. Bulls would need, say, a move above 11-hundo by the end of the week that would set them up for higher ute prices the week after that.

If bears push UTIL below 1063, watch volatility. If the VIX remains below 16.89, the bears have buptkis, and stocks will remain flat and want to recover. If VIX pops above 16.89, this is confirmation that it is time for mayhem and blood and carnage on Wall and Broad.

The drama in the week ahead will revolve around bank earnings, inflation data, Fed speak, and of course, the ongoing AI hype parade. There are no prescheduled numbers for the week ahead. Utilities will tell you who wins. Bob Weir croaked. Keep on Truckin', Bob. LSD sales will decrease. Busted, down on Bourbon Street.

1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +28
1/9/26; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +27

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws this morning, flipping back to the long side at SPX 6940. The bulls shot the utilities to the moon out of the gate to save the day and the rout was on. The algo number is 13 points above the signal line that is not much.

The jobs report offers a lower 4.4% unemployment rate, so a rate cut at the Fed meeting at the end of this month is off the table, but stocks rally anyway. The Supreme Court decision on tariffs did not occur but probably will next week. There was a bunch of data today playing catch-up to the last few months.

The orgy in semiconductors this week after Jensen happy talk, and the goosing of the utilities today, and ongoing strangulation of the VIX, maintain buoyant stocks and new all-time highs again. It feels a lot like the dotcom bubble and 2007-2008. The SPX prints a new all-time high today, 1/9/26, at 6978.36, call it 6978, only 22 points away from 7,000. The all-time closing high also prints today, 1/9/26, at 6966.28, call it 6966. It is interesting that the SPX bottomed at 666 years ago and now, here we are, both of us lonely, we got tonight, ...Bob Seger, and now, here we are, at 6966.

The year is choppy pig slop so far. Last year started the same way. The chop suey chews-up bulls and bears alike. As the session progressed, utes fell on their sword, and UTIL drops to 1069 so the same drama is on tap again for Monday morning. Do not be surprised if Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side.

On the last trade, that runs for one day, the quant program and actual trading post marginal losses. For the year thus far, only 6 trading days along, the benchmark S&P 500, Keybot the Quant program, and actual trading, are all up about a percent. Keybot the Quant exits SDS and enters SPY dropping down into the single ETF's due to the whipsaw. The robot believes there may be a short period of choppy slop ahead so single ETF's are used to reduce risk. In 30 days, the quant will return to 2x  leveraged ETF's.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +27
1/9/26; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +26; go long 6940 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = +1.4%)
1/9/26; 9:01 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25
1/8/26; 9:34 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25; go short 6916 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.0%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +2.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning a few minutes after the opening bell at SPX 6916. The bears have a lot to prove, however, since the algo number is only one measly point below the signal line. Nonetheless, the internal parameters latched and the robot is now short ahead of the Friday session that may prove historic.

Utilities remain in the bear camp creating the pall over the stock market. Equities stumble sideways today as traders and investors focus on the US Monthly Jobs Report released in the morning the first good set of jobs data in 3 or 4 months. In addition, the Supreme Court should pass down a decision on the legality of King Donnie's tariffs. Both events will move markets. The jobs report is 8:30 AM EST about 14 hours away and the Supreme Court decision may be anytime between 9 AM and 5 PM or who knows, maybe it will come out on Saturday?

UTIL 1063 remains the bull/bear line in the sand with price at 1055. This failure creates the stock market weakness the last couple days. Bulls must push UTIL, or DJU, above 1063 or they are toast.

Bears are lucky they flipped the model since there is only one point difference between the algo number and signal line that is nothing. Volatility appears to be the next target for the robot with a bull/bear line in the sand at VIX 16.89. Price is at 15.45 and the VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST.

Bulls need UTIL 1063 to prove they still got game and can take stocks higher. Bears need to keep utes weak and push the VIX above 16.89 that will create another leg lower in the stock market. If UTIL remains below 1063, and VIX below 16.89, stocks will stutter along sideways with a slight downward bias.

On the first trade of the year, that runs for only a few days (remember the quant was long since the end of last year but the trade results were split to keep the 2025 and 2026 numbers separate), the quant program gains a percent; ditto the benchmark SPX. The actual trading generated by the quant gains two percent to begin the year. Keybot the Quant exits SSO and enters SDS. The new year is off and stumbling.

Considering that tomorrow is the first good jobs numbers in a while, markets should react wildly so anything can happen. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the long side if UTIL runs above 1063. The jobs numbers used to prove that the men were hard at work building America. Is this still true? We need some Horslips. Man Who Built America. Wicked flute action. 'And you see the world reflected in his face'.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/8/26; 9:34 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25; go short 6916 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.0%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +2.0%)
1/7/26; 10:16 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
1/5/26; 3:56 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25
1/5/26; 10:02 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
1/4/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25
1/1/26; Begin 2026 Data = +40; signal line is +25; go long 6846; (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number one single point below the signal line. Bears had it on a silver platter today. All they had to do was push the SPX below 6904 but it only got down to 6920.

The imminent turn to the downside is in play and the bears are being handed the stock market tomorrow, if they want it. If UTIL remains down the crapper well under 1063, and the SPX drops only a couple points to below 6919, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The SPX runs higher today, 1/7/26, printing a new all-time high at 6965.69, call it 6966. The all-time closing high is yesterday, 1/6/26, at 6944.82, call it 6945.

The S&P 500 was at the record high at 6966 but the UTIL 1063 trap door opened, utilities fell through, and the SPX fell to 6920 a 46-point retreat. It still was not enough, however, because the bears needed the SPX below 6904 today to flip short.

Bulls must push UTIL back above 1063 pronto or their world will begin crumbling around them.

Thus, bulls need UTIL 1063 and higher to save the day and take stocks higher. Bears need UTIL to remain below 1063, and for the SPX to drop below 6919, and the quant will likely flip short. Bears do not want a gap down move at the opening bell since that will probably delay any potential move to the downside by about 90 minutes. Bears would be best off to see S&P futures flat or down a point or two and then at the opening bell slowly drift lower and lower.

Tomorrow will be interesting. Will the quant flip short, or not? It is all on the line. As utes go, so goes the stock market. Well, is it time for The Drop? 

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/7/26; 10:16 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
1/5/26; 3:56 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after an odd session. The Santa Claus rally is a bust with the period from Christmas Eve to today down marginally. The algorithm wanted to flip short for most of the day but that was difficult to do with stocks rallying to beat the band.

Utilities failed at UTIL 1063.20 but then before the closing bell, the bulls goosed the utes back above to end at 1064. Stocks retreated 20 points from the top but this is not the day that would be expected with the utility trap-door opening, but it did close again. As utilities go, so goes the stock market. Watch UTIL 1063.20 closely to see if it fails again, if so, stocks will likely take the pipe.

If UTIL loses a point and drops below 1063.20, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and then if the SPX drops below 6892, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Bulls must pump utes higher with all their might to save the day, or, they will go down with a sinking ship.

The XRT 85.20 remains in play where stocks will become very sick if it fails. With the up day today, the VIX was also up; that occurs less than 10% of the time so chalk it up to more oddities.

The first full week of trading is off and stumbling. Watch the utilities. We need the Ice Queen, Sue Foley, to start the year off with some blues. Queen Bee. She can tickle those strings.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/5/26; 3:56 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25
1/5/26; 10:02 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
1/4/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the holidays come and go. The bulls remain in charge after an uneventful Friday with the algo number 15 points above the signal line. The robot is tracking utilities, retail stocks, banks and commodities as the main drivers of the US stock market currently.

For the stock market to continue higher, bulls must prove themselves by pushing UTIL, or DJU, higher above 1114.36. UTIL begins the first full week of trading in 2026 at 1078 so the bulls face a formidable task. You can check XLU in the pre-market and individual utility tickers to see if the bulls are coming to play. If utes spike higher, that tells you the bulls are going to keep stocks elevated for a few days or week or so more. If utes lag and stumble sideways, or move lower, that tells you bad things are coming.

UTIL 1062 is another bull/bear line in the sand. If utilities fall through 1062, the stock market is toast and the SPX would be expected to drop 30 or 40 points within a couple hours after the breach and then lead to bad things after that.

Retail stocks are key with XRT 84.97 the line in the sand and price only about a buck away. Banks are important so watch the XLF 53.84 line in the sand and price is a couple percent away. Commodities are key with GTX 3888 the bull/bear demarcation and price begins at 3913.

That is the whole stock market in a nutshell. Will the holiday Nutcracker appear? Bulls need UTIL above 1114 to prove that they still got game and can take stocks higher like all the analysts on Wall Street predict. It will be interesting to see how the utes move out of the gate tomorrow morning.

Bears need UTIL under 1062, and/or XRT under 85, and/or XLF under 54, and/or GTX under 3888, any 1 of the 4 will do, to place the imminent turn in the title line. If any 1 of the 4 fall into the bear camp, and the SPX drops below 6824, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If/when the stock market turns south, you can use these 4 metrics to gauge the seriousness of the pullback.

UTIL 1062 carries a bit more clout than the other three metrics, like a front man in a band is a bit more important to a band as a whole. A wild front man like Mick. Under My Thumb. If UTIL 1062 fails, the stock market goes to Hades. If UTIL 1062 fails, it is likely signaling the start of extremely bad things and a crash would have to be placed on the table.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. It is a new year with new drama ahead.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/4/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25
1/1/26; Begin 2026 Data = +40; signal line is +25; go long 6846; (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new year of trading begins tomorrow at SPX 6846. Utes, commodities and retail stocks are controlling stock market direction currently.

The bull/bear lines in the sand that the algorithm is tracking are UTIL 1088.89, UTIL 1062, GTX 3888 and XRT 84.97.

UTIL begins at 1068 below the key 1089, causing bearishness in the stock market, but is above the 1062, creating bullishness in the stock market. For next week, the 1089 is meaningless and replaced with 1114 so the bull's task becomes far harder. Utilities are going to need to rally strongly tomorrow to start making their way up above 11 hundo to 1114 to prove that the bulls can make new highs in the stock market. If UTIL collapses below 1062, all Hell will break loose in the stock market and a big drop lower would be on the come for equities.

GTX begins at 3916 not too far above the 3888 that guarantees bullish joy. Commodities, in general, need to drop about -1.6%, below 3888, to create stock market negativity.

XRT begins at 85.29 only about a percent away from the 84.97 line in the sand so pay close attention to retail plays such as Scamazon, Target on your back, and Walfart.

The XRT 84.97 and UTIL 1062 are the two metrics most at play currently. Stocks will chop sideways with a slight upward bias with the current status quo. Stocks will catapult higher if UTIL moves above 1089 or next week above 1114.

Stocks are in serious trouble if XRT loses 84.97 and/or if UTIL loses 1062. There will be blood and carnage on Wall Street. If either metric turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX loses 6845 trending lower (only a point below where the SPX begins at 6846), Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it to begin the new year. As utilities and retail stocks go, so goes the US stock market.

The first full week of trading begins on Monday, 1/5/26. The Santa rally that runs from Christmas Eve through the first 2 trading days of this year is negative so it needs to do some catching-up tomorrow and Monday to turn positive, otherwise, there will be no Santa rally.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/4/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/1/26; Begin 2026 Data = +40; signal line is +25; go long 6846; (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.0%)

Keybot the Quant Stock Market Turns in 2025

The SPX chart shows the Keybot the Quant stock market turns in 2025. Equities took the pipe at the start of the year collapsing to the April low. The AI hype, rate-cut joy, QE light, rich people still spending money enjoying the wealth effect, and other happy talk, sends stocks higher with an above-average finish to the year for the SPX up +16.4%.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm program gains +27% and controls the actual trading that generated +35% outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by more than 2x.

The funny thing about 2025 is how many common folks, with money in the stock market, brag and boast about the +16% return this year but when asked what they thought when they had lost -20% to -30% of their money in April, most are clueless. Some do not even know, or remember, that stocks had crashed in the springtime and others immediately proclaim that the stock market always goes up, as it proved in 2025. Wall Street trained the peons well.

For many decades, the US demographics were in our favor. Families kept expanding and so did technology and job opportunities. Productivity drives stock market gains. America is now an old folk's home. The senior Americans are the ones with all the dough in the stock market and that money will be needed for medical bills as the body gives out.

Further, many parents are helping their children get by in life and that will pull money from the market as the years roll forward. A barista at Starbucks, that they should call Tenbucks because that is what you usually spend when you walk in, is not socking away a couple grand per month into the US stock market going forward, as the wealthy folks pull money out.

Think twice about the standard mantra that stocks always go up going forward. Wouldn't it be interesting if the current highs in the SPX at 6900+, or 6900-7250, serve as a top for the next couple decades or more?

Keybot the Quant only sees 1's and 0's so hopefully the emotionless robot will lead the way to another successful year ahead. Happy New Year and Good Luck in 2026. When the Saints Go Marching In. Take it away Louis. There was only one Satchmo.

Keybot the Quant Logs Another Banner Year Gaining +35% Outperforming the Corrupt Hedge Funds

Keybot the Quant logs another banner year gaining +35% outperforming all the corrupt hedge funds on Wall Street. It's fun. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. The benchmark SPX, the S&P 500 Index, the US stock market, gains +16% in 2025, a great return, and the robot outperforms the benchmark by more than 2x. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program gains +27% in 2025 and those commands execute the actual trading that yields +35% for the year.

Stocks collapsed into April but then stage a historic 9-month recovery rally fueled by the AI hype, rate-cut joy, QE light, rich people continuing to spend money, and other happy talk that typically occurs at a major top a la 1999-2000 and 2008-2009. It will be interesting to see if trouble materializes or if the bigtime upside party continues.

The algorithm is re-zeroed to keep the statistics in line. Nothing's changed. The robot did not print any numbers this week except for today with the EOM, EOQ4, EOH2 and EOY2025.

Keybot the Quant remains long in SSO starting at 57.92 and the 2026 year of trading begins at SPX 6846.

There were only 24 stock market turns (long to short or short to long) in 2025 a very low number compared to the last few years. There are usually about 35 turns in a given year and two years ago there were 40 turns. There was not as much sideways chop in 2025 until the last few months of the year. Instead, generally, it was a down year to start the first 4 months and then the last 8 months were up.

Trading is all about 'what have you done for me lately'. The past is over and it is time to move on with a new year where everything starts from scratch again. Utilities, commodities and retail stocks are controlling stock market direction as the new year begins. Welcome 2026. Guy Lombardo and Auld Lang Syne.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/4/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/1/26; Begin 2026 Data = +40; signal line is +25; go long 6846; (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.0%)

Keybot the Quant Begins 2026 on the Long Side from SPX 6846

All Data 0%. Begin 2026

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

START 2026 PROGRAM

Begin Printing

Mark and Set

Date Stamp 1/1/26; 4:10 AM EST

START 2026 PROGRAM

Copyright Enforced. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025. 2026. Keybot the Quant. The Keystone Speculator. K E Stone. All Rights Reserved.

End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

END OF 2025 RESULTS:

The SPX (S&P 500) Benchmark Index Gains an Above-Average +16.4% in 2025

(SPX Started 2025 at 5882 and Ended at 6846 Catapulting 964 Points Higher Repeating the Same Big Outperformances to the Upside as 2023 and 2024; Bull Market 3 Years)

Keybot the Quant Algorithm (Computer Program Only) During 2025: +26.9%

KEYBOT THE QUANT ACTUAL TRADING RETURN FOR 2025 INCLUDING ALL COMMISSIONS, COSTS AND FEES: +34.6%

Keybot the Quant has never printed a losing year

Keybot the Quant is a long-short algorithm that oscillates between a bullish (long) position and a bearish (short) position seeking the smoothest path through the trading year using the S&P 500 (SPX; the US stock market) as the benchmark comparison index

Number of Position Changes (Long to Short or Short to Long) During 2025: 24

1/1/2025	5882	Go Short	4:20 AM	PSQ	37.40
1/2/2025	5928	Cover Short	10:07 AM	PSQ	37.08
1/2/2025	5928	Go Long	10:07 AM	DIA	427.69
1/2/2025	5899	Sell Long	11:00 AM	DIA	426.29
1/2/2025	5899	Go Short	11:00 AM	DOG	26.50
1/6/2025	5988	Cover Short	9:36 AM	DOG	26.40
1/6/2025	5988	Go Long	9:36 AM	QQQ	524.60
1/7/2025	5955	Sell Long	10:20 AM	QQQ	520.66
1/7/2025	5955	Go Short	10:20 AM	RWM	18.53
1/15/2025	5920	Cover Short	9:36 AM	RWM	18.47
1/15/2025	5920	Go Long	9:36 AM	IVV	592.76
2/21/2025	6050	Sell Long	1:02 PM	IVV	606.52
2/21/2025	6050	Go Short	1:02 PM	SDS	18.74
3/17/2025	5667	Cover Short	1:35 PM	SDS	21.28
3/17/2025	5667	Go Long	1:35 PM	SSO	84.79
3/28/2025	5643	Sell Long	10:11 AM	SSO	83.68
3/28/2025	5643	Go Short	10:11 AM	SDS	21.25
4/2/2025	5656	Cover Short	11:27 AM	SDS	21.16
4/2/2025	5656	Go Long	11:27 AM	DDM	92.15
4/3/2025	5488	Sell Long	9:36 AM	DDM	87.50
4/3/2025	5488	Go Short	9:36 AM	SH	45.52
4/22/2025	5254	Cover Short	10.41 AM	SH	46.93
4/22/2025	5254	Go Long	10:41 AM	SPY	524.32
5/30/2025	5859	Sell Long	12:31 PM	SPY	584.83
5/30/2025	5859	Go Short	12:31 PM	SDS	18.75
6/2/2025	5925	Cover Short	2:23 PM	SDS	18.34
6/2/2025	5925	Go Long	2:23 PM	SPY	591.32
7/30/2025	6348	Sell Long	3:00 PM	SPY	632.85
7/30/2025	6348	Go Short	3:00 PM	SDS	15.99
8/22/2025	6448	Cover Short	10:02 AM	SDS	15.60
8/22/2025	6448	Go Long	10:02 AM	SSO	104.86
10/10/2025	6692	Sell Long	11:04 AM	SSO	112.20
10/10/2025	6692	Go Short	11:04 AM	SDS	14.47
10/20/2025	6711	Cover Short	9:37 AM	SDS	14.38
10/20/2025	6711	Go Long	9:37 AM	SSO	112.20
10/29/2025	6856	Sell Long	2:41 PM	SSO	117.25
10/29/2025	6856	Go Short	2:41 PM	QID	19.51
11/10/2025	6805	Cover Short	9:36 AM	QID	20.18
11/10/2025	6805	Go Long	9:36 AM	SSO	115.31
11/18/2025	6637	Sell Long	9:47 AM	SSO	109.69
11/18/2025	6637	Go Short	9:47 AM	QID	21.65
11/24/2025	6672	Cover Short	10:33 AM	QID	21.48
11/24/2025	6672	Go Long	10:33 AM	QLD	67.64
12/16/2025	6788	Sell Long	9:46 AM	QLD	69.05
12/16/2025	6788	Go Short	9:46 AM	SDS	70.68
12/18/2025	6797	Cover Short	10:29 AM	SDS	70.48
12/18/2025	6797	Go Long	10:29 AM	SSO	57.31
1/1/2026	6846	Sell Long	4:10 AM	SSO	57.92

 

Date – SPX – Position – Time Stamp – ETF – Price

Begin Printing Trade Data Entries Exits Reverse Order

FINAL 2025 RESULTS

Mark and Set

Date Stamp 1/1/26; 4:10 AM EST

End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/1/26; Algorithm Zeroed for 2026 Data EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2025 = +40; signal line is +25; go long 6846; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 Final = +16.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2025 Final = +26.9%)(Actual results this trade = +1.1%; Actual results for 2025 Final = +34.6%)
12/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25
12/23/25; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +25
12/22/25; 11:06 AM EST = +39; signal line is +24
12/22/25; 9:36 AM EST = +23; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:16 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:02 AM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/18/25; 12:39 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/18/25; 12:20 AM EST = +11; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/18/25; 11:22 AM EST = +25; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
12/18/25; 10:29 AM EST = +41; signal line is +25; go long 6797 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +15.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +26.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2025 = +33.5%)