STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flipped short on Friday after King Donnie tanked the stock market. The bears are controlling the stock market currently with the algo number 40 points below the signal line. The robot is tracking copper, commodities, banks, retail stocks and volatility as the key drivers of stock market direction. Copper is the only metric that is in the bull camp creating market lift; the other four are in the bear camp creating market angst and selling pressure.

The bull/bear lines in the sand, that will be a good judge for yinz for most of the week ahead, are CPER 29.58, GTX 3814.75, XLF 53.10, XRT 84, and VIX 16.60. Any move by these parameters across their lines in the sand sends the stock market in that same direction. Easy-peasy.

XRT is at 81 so that will be quite a lift to get back on the bull side. XLF is only about -2% below its critical number and that can be made up if the bankster earnings are joyful. It likely leads to long-time trouble and market downside if XLF cannot recover above 53.10 this week. Volatility shot skyward after Donnie's tariff comments and the bears are happy to see the VIX above 21. GTX is only a few dollars away from the bull/bear line in the sand so you can sneeze and it will pop back above.

CPER is +2.3% above the bull/bear line in the sand so the bulls will try to keep the red metal in their camp, otherwise, all hope will be lost for the stock market. Watch the copper futures.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean as the Pennsylvania leaves turn color and the Laurel Highlands lights-up in a brilliant Autumn display. California Dreamin'. They sure could sing.

XLF, GTX, VIX and CPER will tell the story for the week ahead. Check VIX and copper futures overnight for hints of what will happen in the US session. The bulls likely need all 3 metrics, banks, commodities, and volatility, to jump back into their camp to save the day and keep their rally hopes alive. Two of the three will likely not cut it. If copper drops more than -2%, it may place a crash on the table. It's fun.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. Banks, commodities and copper are the focus as the new week begins.

10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =-1; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 11:33 AM EST = -1; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips short at SPX 6692 at 11:04 AM EST yesterday. A Black Friday occurs after President Trump slaps tariffs on China in retaliation for restrictions placed on rare earth minerals. The rift creates stock market angst.

The banksters failed first, then volatility, then commodities. Retail stocks were already floating in the toilet bowl. The robot has been champing at the bit to go short this month and finally finds the right entry. As always, stay alert for a potential whipsaw but the algo number is 42 points below the signal line a formidable deficit.

The quant is tracking commodities (GTX), volatility (VIX), and banks/financials (XLF). All 3 are in the bear camp creating market mayhem. The key bull/bear lines in the sand can be pulled from the quant tomorrow with the standard Sunday number.

On the last trade, that ran from late August to early October, a long trade for the Keybot the Quant robot, call it 2 months, the algorithm program gains almost +4% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains +7%. For the year thus far, with only 2-1/2 months of trading remaining, the benchmark S&P 500 is up almost +14%. The Keybot the Quant algo program is up about +25% this year and the actual trading is up a big +30% two times the benchmark. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's. The bulls are Saying Goodbye to the rally like Ondara. 

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 11:33 AM EST = -1; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 11:04 AM EST = +13; signal line is +43; go short 6692 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +13.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.8%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.9%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +30.4%)
10/10/25; 11:03 AM EST = +13; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 11:01 AM EST = +27; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST = +43; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 8:58 AM EST = +43; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 8:40 AM EST = +29; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 7:07 AM EST = +43; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 5:48 AM EST = +29; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
10/9/25; 3:22 PM EST = +43; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
10/9/25; 9:58 AM EST = +29; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 1:02 PM EST = +43; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:34 AM EST = +29; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:24 AM EST = +43; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 11:12 AM EST = +29; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 9:58 AM EST = +43; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 10:45 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = +45; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 7:51 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 7:07 AM EST = +45; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 4:58 AM EST = +59; signal line is +53
10/6/25; 4:32 AM EST = +45; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:17 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:10 PM EST = +45; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 5:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 3:06 AM EST = +45; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
9/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +59; signal line is +50
9/30/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +49
9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
9/26/25; 7:39 AM EST = +60; signal line is +46
9/26/25; 7:27 AM EST = +46; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 7:14 AM EST = +60; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 6:53 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 5:12 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 4:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43
9/25/25; 2:43 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42
9/25/25; 1:45 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 10:16 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 7:48 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
9/24/25; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
9/24/25; 12:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +37
9/24/25; 9:48 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
9/23/25; 3:50 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
9/23/25; 2:56 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/14/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/12/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/4/25; 10:23 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/4/25; 9:42 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 3:48 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 1:45 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 1:04 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:43 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 12:24 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:16 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 11:44 AM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/3/25; 11:31 AM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:56 PM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/2/25; 2:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:18 PM EST = +14; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 1:44 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/2/25; 1:38 PM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:48 AM EST = +14; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:10 AM EST = +28; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:57 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/2/25; 9:56 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 8:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +36
8/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/22/25; 10:02 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35; go long 6448 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +21.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +23.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market drama heats-up. Commodities are strong that will likely lead to goods inflation. The robot is champing at the bit to go short and fixated on retail stocks, volatility and banks. The bears want control of the stock market with the algo number 9 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not fully latch yet to permit the move.

If the SPX drops below 6718 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

Retail stocks are holding down the bear camp with the XRT 84.74 line in the sand. Price is at 84.51 creating bearishness in the stock market.

Volatility and banks are helping the bulls maintain stock market buoyancy and create the new all-time record high at 6755.64 and new all-time closing high at 6753.72 yesterday, 10/8/25.

VIX 16.57 is the bull/bear line in the sand and it is trading in real-time at 16.50 only 7 pennies on the bull side. XLF 53.20 is the bull/bear line for the banksters with price at 53.51 only 31 cents away from disaster. The banks fell yesterday and no one noticed. XLF fell to 53.29 only 9 pennies away from creating market mayhem before recovering.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? Bears win and the quant will likely flip short if the SPX loses 6718. If VIX pops back above 16.57 heading higher, stocks will deteriorate. If XLF loses 53.20, it is lights-out for the stock market that will tumbling lower. If stocks drop but the VIX and XLF remain bullish, the bears got nothing.

If stocks rally, but the VIX moves above 16.57 and remains above, stocks will reverse and move lower. Bulls need XRT above 84.74 to prove that they got game. If stocks rally, but XRT remains below 84.74, the bulls got nothing and stocks will reverse and start dropping.

VIX is at 16.48 (bullish). XRT sits at 84.51 (bearish). XLF is 53.51 unchanged in early trading (bullish). Let the festivities begin. One of these three will flinch. Have a nice day. Doris Day. Que Sera Sera.

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/8/25; 1:02 PM EST = +43; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:34 AM EST = +29; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:24 AM EST = +43; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 11:12 AM EST = +29; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after an exciting start to the week. Monday was more volatility games with the quant printing 6 numbers. Today the robot prints two numbers potentially paving the way to Hades. The algo number is 24 points below the signal line so the bears are champing at the bit to take control of the stock market. Alas, the internal parameters would not latch to permit the move, and then they all latched, but needed to hold it for 2 more minutes, but could not. All this drama occurred around 11 AM EST-ish this morning.

Volatility, banks and commodities remain key but retail stocks come out of left field tumbling lower down the hill for the last couple days, like Uncle Ralph at the summer picnic after he drank one too many highballs. XRT 84.65 is the bull/bear line in the sand that was vaporized this morning leading to much of the weakness in the stock market. Everyone is looking at tech and AI stocks but they forgot to look at retail stocks.

VIX jumped above the key 16.57 bull/bear line in the sand (remember, these numbers are constantly being calculated) and kept running above 17 today creating more stock market angst. Despite both retail stocks and volatility shunning the bull camp and now joining the bears, the robot did not flip short yet. If the SPX loses the 6700 level tomorrow, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. This is a 15-point drop so check the S&P futures overnight to see if -15 points are on the board to set up Wednesday.

The bull/bear line in the sand for commodities is GTX 3823 and XLF 53.23 is the line in the sand for the banksters. It is a tag team match for hump day; retail stocks and volatility, in the bear corner, versus commodities and banks, in the bull corner. Interestingly, the bulls need both XRT back above 84.65 and VIX below 16.57 to save the day. Bulls are toast if they cannot drag these two metrics back into their camp.

Bears need the SPX below 6700 so the model can flip short. Also, GTX losing 3823 and XLF losing 53.23 will send stocks to Hell. If stocks rally, but retail stocks and volatility remain in the bear camp, the stock market will roll back over to the downside and fall apart. If stocks sell off, but a sustainable sub 6700 SPX cannot be attained, the quant will likely remain long. If stocks sell off, and XLF 53.23 and GTX 3823 will not fail, the bears do not have much oomph and stocks should chop sideways.

The SPX prints a new all-time high a 6754.49 today, the highest number in history. SPX 6700, retail stocks and volatility will tell you the story for tomorrow. It may be an historic day. Are the bears staging a New York Comeback a la Lucinda with Bruce singing back-up vocals? Two great songwriters. Lucinda took a stroke and cannot play guitar anymore but she can still sing.

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/7/25; 11:12 AM EST = +29; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 9:58 AM EST = +43; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 10:45 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = +45; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 7:51 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 7:07 AM EST = +45; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 4:58 AM EST = +59; signal line is +53
10/6/25; 4:32 AM EST = +45; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as volatility plays more games. VIX went above the 16.87 bull/bear line in the sand so stocks started falling apart. In comes the Fed, wrestling Uncle Vix to the ground and then maintaining their jackboot on his neck allowing stocks to recover. Alas, like a beachball that you try to hold underwater, the VIX pops higher again during the last 15 minutes of Friday trading but remains pennies below the key 16.87 at 16.65 in the bull camp. The Beach Boys down in Kokomo; no, they did not sing that 'Vermont's a rotten state' (like many people think they hear) they are actually singing Martinique, 'that Montserrat mystique'.

Banks and commodities are also only small amounts away from their bull/bear lines in the sand. Watch XLF 53.12 and GTX 3815, respectively. On Thursday, the bears pushed the banks down to XLF 53.06 but could not hold it.

The path forward depends upon VIX 16.87, XLF 53.12 and GTX 3815. All three are bullish creating buoyancy in the stock market. If any 1 of the 3 turn bearish, and the SPX falls below 6706 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If 2 or all 3 turn bearish, it will likely be the start of stocks falling a long ways. Bulls only need to keep all 3 metrics in their camp and they remain on easy street swigging down Fed wine each day and buying any stock with a heartbeat.

The algo number is only 7 measly points above the signal line not exactly a ringing endorsement of the record-setting rally. On Friday, 10/3/25, the SPX prints a new all-time high at 6750.87, wowza, and a new all-time closing high at 6715.79. Stocks are a Runaway as Del sings.

Keybot prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. 

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:17 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:10 PM EST = +45; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 5:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bull party continues. Doctor Copper jumps off the gurney, runs out of the emergency room, and proclaims, "buy, buy, buy!" The banks are a wee bit soggy, hinting that they may become sick and in need of a hospital bed.

Yesterday was a repeat of the other day. In the pre-market hours when VIX is already trading, it spiked higher with S&P futures collapsing over -50 points, but a couple hours later all was fine. Volatility was pushed lower and held down with a Fed jackboot so stocks float higher.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6718.48 and new all-time closing high at 6711.20 on 10/1/25. October, the month when stock market crashes tend to happen, starts off with a euphoric all-time historic high. Traders celebrate with SPX 6.7K hats and throwing confetti. The Fed wine and AI booze is flowing like water. Wall Street analysts say SPX 7K is a lock. The screenprinter, busy preparing SPX 6.8K hats, is happy as a pig in mud, counting on the steady business well into the future.

The stock market direction is currently controlled by volatility, banks and commodities. The bull/bear lines in the sand are VIX 16.87, XLF 53.12 and GTX 3817, respectively. All three are bullish creating buoyancy in the stock market (remember, volatility moves inverse to the stock market).

VIX is at 16.01 as this is typed less than 2 hours before the Thursday cash open, so the bulls are feeling good about the path forward. XLF is flat as a newlywed's souffle at 53.41 in pre-market trading only 29 pennies away from creating market mayhem. GTX begins at 3875.

As long as VIX is below 16.87 and XLF is above 53.12, the bull party continues. If either metric turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX then loses 6656, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If both parameters turn bearish, stocks will be falling like rocks. Roctober. I Wanna Rock.

10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST =
10/1/25; 5:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 3:06 AM EST = +45; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
9/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +59; signal line is +50
9/30/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +49
9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48

Update Added Friday Morning, 10/3/25, at 7:30 AM EST: All of the above holds and watch SPX 6693 for when Keybot the Quant may flip short.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 12 points above the signal line. The robot was active last week after a couple-few weeks of idling along. The quant prints 8 numbers on Friday including the prescheduled number.

Volatility, copper and banks are the three key drivers of the stock market currently. All 3 are in the bull camp creating the never-ending buoyancy in equities. The bears needed 2 of the 3 metrics to turn bearish to take the ball away from the bulls but alas, copper and banks are firmly bullish giving bears no hope.

But Friday some interesting action occurs. If you were watching the VIX 16.97 line in the sand, price kept oscillating above and below in the early morning hours. Each time that the VIX price jogs above and below 16.97, the quant's algo number and signal line converge. Interestingly, the bears had it on a silver platter Friday morning, but could not convert one more jog move that would have placed the quant in position to go short.

But something important occurs. The robot no longer needs 2 of the 3 parameters to turn bearish; it only needs 1 of the 3. The bull/bear lines in the sand are VIX 16.97, CPER 29.07 and XLF 52.98. Bears need one of the three to turn bearish and the quant will be in position to flip short (consider the imminent turn to be at play).

On Friday, the Fed stepped in during the afternoon and crushed volatility, pushing Uncle Vix to the ground and placing a jackboot on his neck to hold him down, so stocks rallied into the weekend. The VIX retreated to 15.29 allowing bulls to puff their chests out all weekend long.

Since volatility is the main focal point, watch the VIX in the early morning hours East Coast time to see what the stock market will do later that day. If VIX remains below 16.97, the bulls rule and bears got nothing. If VIX pops above 16.97 heading higher, the wheels will fall off the stock market.

Just when the VIX appears to be the major determinant of the path ahead, copper and banks may surprise and collapse to create negativity. Copper futures need to fall -1.0% and the XLF needs to drop -1.7% to turn bearish and create market mayhem. Those are not big drops that may occur especially with copper.

If 1 of the 3 metrics above turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 6604 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

There is lots of market craziness occurring these days. The month and Q3 ends on Tuesday and October trading and Q4 begins on Wednesday. Keybot prints 3 prescheduled numbers this week. The jobs circus will be back in town on Friday. Pay close attention to volatility and copper since they will tell the story ahead. The bulls are still Stayin' Alive. Ah, ah, ah, ah, stayin' alive, stayin' alive.

10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/30/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
9/26/25; 7:39 AM EST = +60; signal line is +46
9/26/25; 7:27 AM EST = +46; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 7:14 AM EST = +60; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 6:53 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 5:12 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 4:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43
9/25/25; 2:43 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42
9/25/25; 1:45 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 10:16 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 7:48 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
9/24/25; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 22 points above the signal line. The bulls are walking around with their chests puffed out now that they have pulled Doctor Copper back into their camp. The bulls sent copper higher while keeping volatility low.

The VIX was rising and stalling markets late morning but at about 1 PM EST, the VIX was squashed like a bug. It is surprising the day ended negative for the SPX since higher copper and lower volatility are two bullish metrics.

The bulls expect higher stocks ahead and they are in the drivers seat. The bears have zero hope unless they can push copper lower, push banks lower, and/or pull volatility higher. The quant is tracking CPER 29.07, XLF 52.97 and VIX 16.97 as the key bull/bear lines in the sand. All 3 are currently bullish creating stock market joy.

The bears need 2 of the 3 metrics to flip into their camp to create enough negativity to flip the model short. If CPER falls below 29.07, and/or if XLF falls below 52.97, and/or VIX moves above 16.97, two of the three must occur, and if the SPX drops below 6622 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

You can watch copper and VIX futures overnight and then check XLF in the pre-market tomorrow morning. You will know what will happen before the opening bell rings. Pretty Anita knows how to ring that bell.

9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/24/25; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
9/24/25; 12:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +37
9/24/25; 9:48 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
9/23/25; 3:50 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The robot showed that it is still alive and kicking spitting out two numbers today. It's alive! It's alive! The algo number is  8 points above the signal line so all is groovy for the bulls but the bears were growling today due to elevated volatility.

The VIX popped above 17, above the key bull/bear line in the sand at VIX 16.97, identified by the quant. This pop in vol created the swoon in stocks and then late-day the Fed tackled Uncle Vix pushing him back down to the floor below 16.97 so stocks recover.

Commodities rallied today. Banks remain buoyant. Retail stocks are starting to get wobbly knees. It is a new cage match tomorrow between Doctor Copper and Uncle Vix. Two will enter but only one will exit and the stock market will follow the winner.

The bulls need to keep the VIX below 16.97 while at the same time pumping CPER above 29.02 heading higher. This will unleash a new leg higher for the bull rally.

The bears need to keep copper weak with CPER below 29.02 while at the same time catapulting the VIX above 16.97 that will create automatic market mayhem. Since it failed today, and then the bulls saved the day, the front line is slightly weakened, so the bears will attack again and see if they can bust up through VIX 16.97 for good sending stocks over the cliff.

If VIX overtakes 16.97 running above 17, and the SPX drops below 6646, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. Tomorrow may be an important day.

The SPX prints a new all-time high today, 9/23/25, at 6699.52, only 48 pennies from 6700. The screenprinter already delivered the large cardboard box with 500 "SPX 6.7K" hats ready for distribution. Alas, the S&P 500 fell on its sword after the record high so the all-time closing high remains at 6693.75 on 9/22/25.

Watch copper and volatility. One of them will flinch. You can watch the futures overnight and will know the answer before the opening bell for the cash session. Bulls need higher copper and lower vol. Bears need lower copper and higher vol. Two will go to one. U2 sings "One."

9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/23/25; 3:50 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
9/23/25; 2:56 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls are kicking arse and taking names. The stock market is one big euphoric par-tay, all day, each day, and the bulls say it will continue forever. The algo number is 9 points above the signal line enough for the bulls to maintain control of the stock market. The robot idled along last week only printing the prescheduled number.

Chips launch into the stratosphere creating higher stock indexes and rampant optimism that AI will solve all the worlds problems. The banks run higher creating further market joy and happiness.

Interestingly, bulls need higher copper to guarantee more upside bullish fun but, despite the new all-time high at 6671.82 and new all-time closing high at 6664.36, Doctor Copper remains sick and stays in the bear camp for now.

Copper and commodities are the main metrics controlling stock market direction right now. Copper is creating negativity in stocks while commodities are creating positivity in equities. Bulls need CPER above 29.10 to throw confetti and begin a new stock market orgy where the sky is the limit.

Bears need GTX below 3792 to create market sadness and selling. If GTX fails, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 6630, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Copper and commodities enter the cage match but only one will exit and take the stock market in that direction. The euphoric rally will stall if CPER 29.10 cannot be attained (bulls need this to signal blue skies and rainbows ahead). Bulls need a +1.8% rise in copper while bears need a -1.4% drop in commodities. The table is set.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. If the VIX pops above 17.27, it is lights-out for stocks. Bulls are fine if the VIX remains below 17.27. VIX begins at 15.45. Who will be the Lucky Man this week?

9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/14/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after an uneventful week. The quant is idling along only printing the prescheduled number last week with the bulls in full control taking the stock market to new record heights. The algo number is only 9 points above the signal line.

The all-time record high is 6600.21 on Friday, 9/12/25. Ding, ding, ding. The screenprinter was rushed to print the "SPX 6.6K" hats and in his haste slipped during the delivery dropping the caps into a mud puddle on Wall and Broad. The all-time closing high is 6587.47 on 9/11/25.

Banks, copper, commodities and volatility are running the show with Dr Copper the only metric causing negativity in the stock market right now. Bulls need CPER above 29.23 to continue the upside joy in equities and new record highs. Copper moving into the bull camp would be a big deal.

On the other side, bears need XLF below 52.70, GTX below 3784, and/or VIX above 17.60, any one will do, to created market mayhem. Interestingly, the CPER, XLF and GTX parameters are each about 2% away from the bull/bear lines in the sand. Copper needs to gain about +2% to signal bullish joy while banks or commodities need to drop about -2% each to create market negativity.

Thus, check copper futures overnight to see if they are up over +2% to signal more bullish fun ahead. Also, watch volatility because a VIX moving above 17.60 will lock-in downside misery for stocks.

The table is set. It is copper versus banks. Two enter the cage match but only one will exit. If only one of the three bullish metrics turn bearish, and if the SPX drops below 6579 moving lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The robot prints one prescheduled number this week on Wednesday morning the same day that Fed Chairman Powell will bring the tablets down from On High to tell global traders how to trade (rate decision and press conference). The bulls are smiling joyously expecting stocks to continue higher and higher. Watch the banks. Make Me Smile.

9/21/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/14/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/12/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls and bears are set to battle for another week. Vacation season is over and it is time for everyone to get back to work. The bulls pump chips to maintain stock market buoyancy just like the banks a couple weeks ago. The banksters are now back in play. Banks, chips, commodities, volatility and copper are the key market metrics moving stocks currently.

Copper is in the bear camp with the other parameters in the bull camp preventing the stock market from dropping. XLF 52.50, SOX 5590, GTX 3777, VIX 18.12, and CPER 29.30, respectively, are the bull/bear lines in the sand currently identified by the quant. Volatility spiked into the bear camp last Tuesday but that was stick-saved by the bulls crushing the VIX lower again in quick order (VIX moves inversely to stocks).

XLF begins at 53.07 so bears need a 57-cents drop in price to create stock market negativity. That is a -1.1% drop so check the banks pre-market to see if they are this soggy. If so, the bears will be coming to play. If not, stocks will likely remain buoyant.

If the XLF loses 53.07, or one of the other 3 parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6444, Keybot the Quant will likely flip to the short side. It should be an interesting week ahead. Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. Watch the banksters. Money.

9/14/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/12/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/4/25; 10:23 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/4/25; 9:42 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 3:48 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market with the algo number 10 points above the signal line. The US stock market is a knock-down, drag-out fight between the bulls and the bears trading punches during the hump day session.

It is all about the chips. No, not those chips; the semiconductors. They failed just before munchtime but recovered, then failed, then recovered, then failed, you get the picture. Watch the SOX 5567 bull/bear line in the sand.

If bulls keep SOX above 5567, the easy street upside rally for equities will continue with the Fed wine flowing like water. If bears push the SOX below 5567, you will notice a serious deterioration in the stock market and the potential path to blood and carnage ahead. The chips are for all the marbles.

If bears drive chips lower, watch VIX 18.18 to see if the selling has legs. Also, XLF 52.40 is a line in the sand that will guarantee carnage ahead. If the SOX loses 5567, and remains below, and the SPX drops below 6416 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. S&P futures are up +9 as this is typed about 4 hours before the US opening bell for the regular session.

Stocks may spend another day idling, dancing to and fro, since the US Monthly Jobs Report drops in about 27 hours (that will impact the Fed rate decision on 9/17/25). Dancing in the Dark with the Boss, the Big Man on sax (Clarence), Max Weinburg banging the skins, and pretty actress Courtney Cox before she was famous.

9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/3/25; 3:48 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 1:45 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 1:04 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:43 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 12:24 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:16 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 11:44 AM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/3/25; 11:31 AM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:56 PM EST = +44; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after a wild day to begin the holiday-shortened week that will end with a Jobs Report crescendo. The quant prints a dozen numbers today but goes nowhere, man. The algo number is 11 points above the signal line.

Today was a battle between chips and volatility. The VIX jumped into the bear camp followed by semiconductors causing the flush lower in the SPX at the opening bell. But the pair turn positive again, then negative again, then positive again, then negative again, then positive again. The robot's internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move to the short side so the quant remains long.

VIX 18.23 and SOX 5565 dictate stock market direction currently. Both are in the bull camp so the bear's only need one to turn bearish to position the quant to go short. The difficult road for the bears tomorrow is that the SPX likely needs to drop below 6361 to allow the quant to go short and that is a long way down.

If volatility spikes, and chips collapse, like this morning, and one other parameter fails (maybe banks?), the quant may flip short immediately. For now, the bulls remain in possession of the stock market ball but it is difficult to hold with hooves.

Chips and volatility are controlling stock market direction currently with copper, commodities and banks waiting in the wings hoping to influence equities going forward. Today is a wild start to the month. Wake Me Up When September Ends.

9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/2/25; 2:56 PM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/2/25; 2:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:18 PM EST = +14; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 1:44 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/2/25; 1:38 PM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:48 AM EST = +14; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:10 AM EST = +28; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:57 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/2/25; 9:56 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 8:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 8 points above the signal line.  Last week was a lot of stock market drama but the robot idled through the week unimpressed only printing the two prescheduled numbers.

US markets are closed tomorrow, Monday, 9/1/25, for the Labor Day holiday, the unofficial end to summertime fun. The quant continues tracking commodities, chips and banks as the three key metrics currently dictating stock market direction. Commodities pump higher over the last couple weeks that will lead to ongoing high prices at the supermarket.

Bears need either GTX below 3770, SOX (chips) below 5555, and/or XLF (banksters) below 52.35 to create stock market negativity.  Commodities and semiconductors need to drop about -2% each and banks need to drop about -3% to help the bears.

Bulls need stronger copper and must push the red metal about +4% higher to maintain the stock market joy a formidable task since Doctor Copper is lying on a gurney in the emergency room.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number during this holiday-shortened week on Friday morning. Watch the chips and commodities like a hawk since they will tell you the fate of stocks ahead. Remember, chips failed last Wednesday around 11 AM EST, but quickly recovered. That was the first shot across the bow. Happy Labor Day. The human robots with mundane lives are always Working for the Weekend a la Loverboy.

9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +36
8/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side since the Powell speech on Friday but the algo number is only 8 measly points above the signal line. Chips, banks and commodities are driving the stock market these days. Doctor Copper is lying in a coffin but traders do not care since they are too busy buying stocks.

The bulls are in control and it will be interesting to see if more record highs are ahead for the SPX.

The bears need SOX below 5520, now at 5754, to create market negativity (about a -4% drop; semiconductors failed last week but if you blinked you missed it; the buy the dip crowd brought price quickly higher again).

The bears need XLF below 52.00, now at 53.57, to create negativity (about a -3% drop). The bears need GTX below 3757, now at 3818, to create negativity (a -1.6% drop). Thus, commodities may likely be the metric that reverses the bullish joy and reintroduces stock market selling pressure since it is the easiest metric to turn for the bears.

The bulls are on easy street with bears needing a -1.6% drop in commodities, and/or a -3% drop in the banksters, and/or a -4% drop in semiconductors, to retake control. Choose your poison. Poison Heart with Joey's haunting voice.

Keybot prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning, both one-half hour after the opening bells for the cash trade. The month of August trading ends on Friday (EOM) and September trading begins Tuesday, 9/2/25, after the Labor Day holiday, 9/1/25, when US markets will be closed.

8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/22/25; 10:02 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35; go long 6448 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +21.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +23.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull camp at 10 AM EST Friday morning at 6448 as Pope Powell brought the tablets down from On High and told everyone a rate cut is locked-in for 9/17/25. The crowd goes wild celebrating the crony capitalism system pumping stocks higher. The SPX was up over one hundo points intraday on the euphoria.

Interestingly, despite the rampant euphoric bull party, the S&P 500 did not print a new all-time high. The all-time record high remains at 6481.34 on 8/15/25, the prior Friday; traders must be happy for the weekend on Friday's. The all-time closing high remains at 6468.54 on 8/14/25. The SPX could have easily poked out a new record high and new record closing high but did not. Monday will be interesting.

The quant was champing at the bit to go long and the second Powell opened his pie hole it was off to the races. As previously explained, chips, banks and commodities are the three metrics most impacting stock market direction  currently. The stick-save with the chips and commodities this week paved the way for Powell to flap his dovish wings.

On the last trade that ran for about 3 weeks, the quant program and actual trading each lose a couple percent. On the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up about +10%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +21% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +23% outperforming the benchmark by 2x. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SSO.

Since the banksters are running to the moon, the bears likely need weaker chips and/or commodities to wrestle back the market football. The algo number is only 9 points above the signal line. The end of August trading (EOM) is next Friday.

8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/22/25; 10:02 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35; go long 6448 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +21.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +23.4%)
8/20/25; 11:17 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 11:13 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:52 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
8/20/25; 10:28 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 10:18 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34
8/20/25; 9:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains short
8/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/15/25; 10:01 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/12/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
8/11/25; 2:01 PM EST = +44; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 1:43 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38
8/11/25; 12:31 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 11:55 AM EST = +30; signal line is +39
8/11/25; 11:27 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 10:47 AM EST = +30; signal line is +41
8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 2:39 PM EST = +30; signal line is +43
8/8/25; 10:59 AM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 10:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +44
8/8/25; 10:06 AM EST = +44; signal line is +45
8/7/25; 11:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +46
8/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +47
8/6/25; 3:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 12:28 PM EST = +44; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 10:29 AM EST = +28; signal line is +49
8/4/25; 10:19 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50
8/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +50
8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +51
8/1/25; 9:37 AM EST = +12; signal line is +53
8/1/25; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +54
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +55
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +56
7/30/25; 3:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +56; go short 6348 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +7.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +22.7%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +25.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long after a choppy day. The algo number is 9 points above the signal line so the quant wants to go long but cannot since the internal parameters did not fully latch. If the SPX rallies above 6408 moving higher tomorrow, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

If you are bullish, you do not want a gap-up day. Instead, a slow steady move higher would be a better set-up for the quant to flip long. If a gap-up move occurs, it may trigger a timer that will delay the turn to the long side by about 90 minutes.

The surprise today was the failure of the semiconductors; the 'chips were down' literally and figuratively. Instead of the ongoing battle between the commodes and the banksters, today was a battle between the commodes and chips. The SOX fell below 5516 that is major trouble for the stock market as per the quant, and you saw what happened.

GTX, commodities, rallied at first but then fell on their sword below 3756 also in that 10:49 to 10:52 AM time. Stocks were toast but the invisible hand came in at 11:15 AM-ish to save the day pulling both parameters back into the bull camp sending equities higher off the lows.

Bears need SOX under 5516, GTX under 3756 and/or XLF below 52.87. The banksters remain elevated and chips recovered far off the 5516 line in the sand, so commodities will be the most important parameter to the stock market tomorrow. Bears desperately need one of the three parameters to fail and GTX is likely their best shot. Hit Me With Your Best Shot. Pat knew how to shake her assets.

The bulls win with SPX 6408 and higher so watch S&P futures for a potential +12 point rally overnight. The bears win with weaker commodities, or semiconductors, or banks, any one will do, and if 2 or all 3 turn negative, stocks will collapse.

Thursday should be an interesting day ahead of Chairman Powell's speech on Friday morning from Jackson Hole. Jackson should be playing a gig for the banksters in Jackson Hole since the markets may be Running on Empty. Back-up singer Rosemary Butler is a killer voice.

8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/25; 11:17 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 11:13 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:52 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
8/20/25; 10:28 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 10:18 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34
8/20/25; 9:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains short
8/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high at 6481.34 on Friday, 8/15/25, and a new all-time closing high at 6468.54 on Thursday, 8/14/25. The algo number, however, is only 4 points below the signal line which is not much.

Copper and commodities are creating a pall over the stock market and the record high joy. Doctor Copper continues lying on a gurney in the emergency room. The battle for stock market control is commodities versus banks; GTX vs XLF, respectively.

Commodities are creating stock market negativity so the bulls need to push GTX above 3756 and the sadness will turn into upside joy and a rally in equities. If GTX rises above 3756 trending higher, and the SPX moves above 6481, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. The SPX will begin the new week of trading from 6450.

Banks are keeping the stock market buoyant and at the record highs so the bears need to pull XLF below 51.72 to get equities rolling downhill and create market mayhem and pain.

It remains strange times with the sideways SPX price action unwilling to yet commit lower or higher. Keybot prints one prescheduled number this week on Tuesday morning before the opening bell. Watch the commodities vs banks battle; one of them will flinch this week and tell you the market direction forward. The bulls want to Stay at the record top Just a Little Bit Longer a la Jackson and the gang.

8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/19/25; 9:00 AM EST =
8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/15/25; 10:01 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/12/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short despite the moonshot in equities today. The SPX gains 72 points today, 8/12/25, for a new all-time record high at 6446.55 and new all-time closing high at 6445.76. Price parks itself at the 6446 palindrome.

The bazaar behavior continues. Commodities fail out of the gate today but stocks gap higher. Bulls need stronger commodities if they want to retake control of the stock market. Commodities ruined the stock market party today puking on the bull's shoes. Banks ran higher supporting the bull case pushing indexes to record highs.

Stock market direction is controlled by the banksters and commodities. Tomorrow will be a cage match since they are in opposite camps. Two enter but only one will exit and take equities in that direction. GTX is below the 3756.90 bull/bear line in the sand creating negativity. Bulls need GTX back above 3756.90 and the rally party will drive strongly higher.

Bears need XLF below the 51.70 line in the sand to create market mayhem.

Simplifying, bulls need GTX above 3757 and the SPX above 6447 for Keybot the Quant to likely flip long. Bears simply need weaker banks and XLF to fall below 51.70 that will cause stocks to fall. The weirdness continues. Strange Days.

8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/12/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
8/11/25; 2:01 PM EST = +44; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market crazy ride continues. The bulls had one arm of Miss Commodities and the bears had the other arm and they spent the day dragging her from one camp, to the other, then back again, and back, and back, and by the time the fight was over, the stock market is basically where it started. The struggle was like a fight between Batman and the Penguin. Bam! Pow! Thwack! Bonk! 

It appears that traders want to wait for tomorrow morning when inflation will lift its skirt and reveal what is underneath. If inflation comes in tame below expectations, the rate cut for September will look like a go and stocks may rally. If inflation meets expectations or one tick above, that would be expected and keep the door open to rate cuts but it will not tell a lot. If tariffs start to bite harder, and the inflation numbers beat by two or more ticks and the data appear to be running higher going forward, that puts the September rate cut into question and would likely create a sour mood for equities.

Keybot the Quant, however, is a robot and only sees 1's and 0's. Same-o set-up as last evening. The algo is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. If the SPX moves above 6407 tomorrow going higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why they are never invited to parties, S&P futures will need to rally +34 points overnight (currently negative down -3).

Bears need GTX below 3757.10 to close the door on the bull's hopes. It is only pennies away and this metric was the cause of all of today's commotion. Commodities commotion. Little Eva and the Loco-motion. A fave at all high school dances across America during the 1960's and 1970's and then the song was redone in recent years by other artists.

Bears need XLF below 51.66 only pennies away. Either parameter turning bearish will guarantee the bear path going forward. If both fail, that will hint that stocks are in the process of falling apart. Commodities and banks are controlling stock market direction currently.

Thus, if bullish, you want SPX 6407 to wave the banner of victory going forward. If bearish, you want to see GTX lose 3757 and/or XLF lose 51.66 and if both fail, you will be throwing confetti as screens turn blood red. The Beat Goes On.

8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/11/25; 2:01 PM EST = +44; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 1:43 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38
8/11/25; 12:31 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 11:55 AM EST = +30; signal line is +39
8/11/25; 11:27 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 10:47 AM EST = +30; signal line is +41
8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short after a wild Friday. The robot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 2 points above the signal line but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move. The algorithm was one single human hair from flipping long at 2 PM EST-ish on Friday but the internal parameters held it back.

That was Twilight Zone behavior for the quant since these same mathematical machinations played out 12 years ago to the day. It is bazaar. Back in 2013, the quant did go long a few days later, but then whipsawed short again, and lost about -4% over a couple-week period. That has no bearing on what will happen now but it is interesting to see the same odd mathematical behavior on Friday occurred with the model 12 years later to the day.

The bulls are in great shape to take back stock market control. If the SPX moves above 6395 moving higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. This equates to a +6 point rise in S&P futures that will be on line this evening. That will tell you right away if the bulls got game.

The bulls do not want a gap-up move higher in the SPX. This would likely trigger the gap timer and cause the robot to wait about 90 minutes before allowing it to go long, and sometimes stocks end up falling on their sword.

The financials and commodities are the two main market metrics that are controlling direction currently; banks and goods. Bears need XLF below 51.64 (now at 51.85) and/or GTX below 3756.90 (now at 3758.28). You can see it is a game of pennies. If either metric turns negative, the bears are back in the game and will press the downside in equities.

Thus, bulls win with the SPX above 6395 and marching slowly and methodically higher. Bears win if XLF 51.64 or GTX 3756.90 fail.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. S&P futures this evening will probably tell you the story for tomorrow.

8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 2:39 PM EST = +30; signal line is +43
8/8/25; 10:59 AM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 10:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +44
8/8/25; 10:06 AM EST = +44; signal line is +45
8/7/25; 11:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +46
8/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +47
8/6/25; 3:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 12:28 PM EST = +44; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 10:29 AM EST = +28; signal line is +49
8/4/25; 10:19 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls come to play on Monday almost regaining the Friday loss. Retail stocks and banks fold like a cheap suit for the bears and run back into the bull camp creating the upside joy in equities. The algo number is now only 6 points below the signal line.

Same dealio tomorrow. Watch the XRT 78.15 and XLF 51.65 lines in the sand. Both are bullish creating stock market lift. Stocks will weaken if either fails back into the bear camp.

Commodities were teasing failure today while no one was looking but they remain in the bull camp. Watch GTX 3760 now at 3786. Equities will weaken if GTX loses 3760 heading lower.

It is a slow data weak but perhaps it will be an erratic week considering the start. The dip buyers were tripping over each other to buy any stock with a heartbeat. They could not sleep all weekend because they wanted to put their entire paycheck to work in the tech and meme stocks. Retail stocks, banks and commodities are the only three metrics that matter right now.

One way the bulls may wrestle back control is if any of the 3 parameters above dance above and below their lines in the sand a couple times. This behavior would jog the quant algo number closer to the signal line to where it may pop above and set-up a move back to the long side. For now, the bears still have the ball. Tomorrow will be interesting. Jethro Tull prepares everyone for the bull/bear battle. Locomotive Breath. No way to slow down.

8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/25; 10:19 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50
8/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +50
8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the bears hitting cruise control with the algo number 39 points below the signal line. Retail stocks and banks both failed on Friday flushing the stock market down the toilet, but all of you knew that ahead of time, and what to watch.

Watch the XRT 78.03 and XLF 51.67 lines in the sand. The bulls have zero hope for stocks if both remain in the bear camp. If 1 of the 2 turn bullish, it shows that the bulls are fighting back and making a little bit of progress but they need both to turn bullish to stage a real comeback.

Copper creates a pall on commodities and bears need GTX to drop below 3755 to create more stock market negativity. A couple other metrics you can watch that are starting to take on importance are SOX 5383 and NYA 19675. Both would need to drop about -2.5% to -3.0% to hit the lines in the sand and trigger more stock market negativity.

Keybot the Quant does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The bears are running the show. Retail stocks, banks and commodities are controlling stock market direction currently. Bears will need more help from commodities, semiconductors and the NYA index but if these parameters remain bullish, the downside in equities will fizzle. The girls playing Johnny B Goode. Excellent.

8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +51
8/1/25; 9:37 AM EST = +12; signal line is +53
8/1/25; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +54
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +55
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Thursday session starts out with bullish euphoria and a new all-time record high at 6427.02, followed by stocks falling on their sword reversing one hundo points intraday and then ending at 6339.

Today is end of month and August trading begins tomorrow. The US Monthly Jobs Report is released tomorrow morning and may send stocks into a tizzy.

Dr Copper is puking all over the hospital hallway and is placed on a gurney and wheeled into the emergency room. Medic! Stat! The quant is tracking retail stocks and banks as the two most important parameters impacting stock market direction and both retreated today coming closer to their bull/bear lines in the sand.

If XRT loses 78.03 (give or take a few pennies because the quant is constantly recalculating), it is lights-out for stocks (a drop of -0.6%). If XLF loses 51.72, it is lights-out for stocks (a drop of -1.2%). Banks would likely be more impacted by jobs data than retail stocks. If both fail into the bear camp, stocks will be falling like rocks. If both remain in the bull camp, equities will stagger sideways like the drunks in Times Square on Saturday night. Outside its another yellow moon, the trains are full of all those Brooklyn girls, all of my dreams fall like rain, always on a downtown train. Tom Waits masterpiece Downtown Train sung by Patty.

So the stage is set. The retail stocks and banks will tell you if the downside has legs or if it is a pig in a poke.

8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +56
7/30/25; 3:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +56; go short 6348 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +7.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +22.7%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +25.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday afternoon straight-up at 3 PM EST at SPX 6348. The algo number is 12 points below the signal line. The crash in copper comes out of left field (due to King Donnie's Trade and Tariff War) and then the Fed decision created soggy stocks triggering the robot to go short.

Copper needs to recover bigtime to right the ship but that does not appear to be on the docket going forward. S&P futures are up over +60 points on happy tech earnings last evening but copper will likely remain in the cellar.

Retail stocks and banks will tell you if the move lower has legs. If the XRT loses -1.6% and/or the XLF loses -2.0%, stocks will be in a lot of trouble. If these two parameters remain bullish, stocks will likely stutter sideways waiting on more information.

On the last trade, that ran for 2 months, the quant program gains a huge +7% ditto the actual trading. The entire gain for the S&P 500 this year (+8%) basically occurred over the last 2 months. For the year, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +23% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a huge +26% three times the gain in the SPX this year thus far. Keybot exited SPY and entered SDS back into the 2x ETF's since the whipsaw timer from 6/2/25 has expired.

As always, watch for a potential whipsaw, and futures are up big, but the copper crash may prevent the quant from flipping back to the long side. There are probably more surprises ahead this week but for now, Keybot the Quant is on the short side. The copper crash yesterday was more important than the ongoing tariff drama and the Fed.

8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/25; 3:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +56; go short 6348 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +7.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +22.7%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +25.8%)
7/30/25; 2:18 PM EST = +44; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
7/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +56
7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56
7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56
7/18/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +55
7/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +54
7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +53
7/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +52
7/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +52
6/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +57; signal line is +51
6/29/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +50
6/27/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +50
6/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +49
6/22/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48
6/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +46
6/13/25; 3:09 PM EST = +60; signal line is +45
6/13/25; 2:38 PM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains long
6/13/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +43
6/6/25; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41
6/4/25; 3:59 PM EST = +60; signal line is +40
6/4/25; 3:14 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +38
6/3/25; 3:15 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
6/2/25; 3:06 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36
6/2/25; 2:51 PM EST = +60; signal line is +35
6/2/25; 2:23 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35; go long 5925 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +15.6%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2025 = +18.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls squeeze-out more juice from the stock market with the algo number now 4 points above the signal line. That is nothing to write home about but the bears cannot make any headway lower. The Fed meeting and rate decision tomorrow, and more data, and the Jobs Report, and tariff deadline will all have their day. The strong, the weak, will all have their day. Winners and Losers. Which one will you be today?

The bears have their work cut out for them even though the algo number and signal line are lining-out together. Pay attention to the banks and retail stocks. Bears will win the day if either XLF loses -2.2% and/or if XRT loses -2.5%. If either turn bearish, the imminent turn to the short side will be on the table.

Chairman Powell is picking-up his white dove suit at the cleaners. It had a jelly stain on the left wing from last month's free buffet. A rate cut is not expected so Powell's words will matter. Does he appease Trumpski cooing dovishly and guaranteeing a cut in September in about 6 weeks, or, will he stay the course and keep the rate cut up in the air waiting on more data? There is now about a 65% chance of a rate cut occurring in September. King Donnie is ready to tweet like an adolescent child as soon as the FOMC decision occurs.

8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +56
7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the hazy, lazy summer continues. The quant did not print any numbers last week just like two weeks before that is extremely odd and rare behavior. Something must be going on under the surface. The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction but the algo number is only one measly point above the signal line.

Nonetheless, the stock market parameters remain bullish across the board. The crack will probably occur in banks, commodities, and/or copper, that the quant considers the most important metrics currently.

XLF needs to fall about -2.7% to help the bears that is still a tall ask. Therefore, thinking out loud and knowing how the algorithm operates reading the 1's and 0's, the pre-scheduled numbers may play a critical role this week. 

Today, the stock market prints a new all-time record high at 6401.07 and new all-time closing high at 6389.77. Where's the SPX 6.4K hats? 

The bulls maintain elevated stocks with daily Trump tariff happy talk (the orange head announced the EU deal two hours before the Sunday futures opened on the East Coast last night), inflation data, and now this epic week with earnings from big tech companies, Fed Chairman Powell's press conference and rate decision (no cut expected), EOM, Con Con tomorrow and the Monthly Jobs Report on Friday along with a King Donnie tariff deadline to end the week.

The stock market is spinning in place, like Natalie was known for when she performed. Wonder. Great guitar work by Jenny.

8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/29/25; 10:00 AM EST =
7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56
7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market remains goosed by the ongoing hype that interest rate cuts will occur at any time. King Donnie wants the rate cuts because he knows prices are going to move higher from here due to his tariffs. The quant is not very active for the last couple weeks and the bulls remain in control of the stock market but only by one single measly point.

Nonetheless, the market metrics have taken a ride to Orgiville and do not want to leave.  The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6315.61 on 7/18/25 and the all-time closing high is on Thursday, 7/17/25, at 6297.36.

The quant is tracking retail stocks, banks and commodities as the key metrics controlling stock market direction currently. It will be interesting to see how it cracks whenever that occurs. XRT would need to lose -3.2%, and/or XLF lose -2.7%, and/or GTX lose -2.5%, to position the quant to go short. Any 1 of the 3 would work but you can see the bulls are in comfortable control.

Keybot the Quant does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The boring price action should give way to excitement at some point ahead. For now, it is Clams Casino on a Sunday night, having a good time.

7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST =
7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56
7/18/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +55
7/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +54
7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long in a sleepy summer mode. The robot is idling along for over a week without printing any numbers. The bulls remain in control of the stock market but the banks, retail stocks and commodities are in play and the algo number is only 4 points from the signal line.

The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6302.04 yesterday but the all-time closing high at 6280.46 from 7/10/25 remains in place.

Banks are key since earnings are released this week. The quant identifies XLF 51.07 as the bull/bear line in the sand. In the pre-market right now, less than 5 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street, XLF is at 51.666. If XLF loses the 51.07 level, and the SPX is below 6242 trending lower, the quant will likely flip short.

The quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one before the opening bell on Friday morning and one after the open. Watch the banks.

7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST =
7/18/25; 10:00 AM EST =
7/18/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +53
7/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls remain in full control of the stock market. The stock market is one big party just like the dotcom bubble in 1999/2000. The quant is idling along on the long side with the algo number only a measly 5 points above the signal line.

Weakness in commodities and utilities may help the bears but each sector that weakens is immediately boosted to keep the Wall Street party going. Banks took off higher. Copper jumped higher. Volatility collapses. It is a bull's dream.

The quant does not print any prescheduled numbers this week. Up, Up and Away. Oh we can fly in my beautiful balloon. At least until it pops.

7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST =
7/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +52
7/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +52
6/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +57; signal line is +51
6/29/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +50