STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short after another crazy day of price action. Utes and chips are the main attraction today and both fail into the bear camp creating stock market negativity. The bears remain in charge with the algo number 26 points below the signal line.

Stock market direction is dictated by the battle between bearish utes, chips and banks versus bullish copper and commodities. Doctor Copper and other important goods commodities are keeping the stock market afloat but both are near their lines in the sand.

The bull/bear lines in the sand are UTIL 1113.47 (tomorrow only and then it becomes 1103.18 for all of next week), SOX 6608, XLF 52.55, CPER 30.62 and GTX 3860, respectively.

The bears need to keep utes, chips and banksters in their camp, that will create more negativity each day, while at the same time pull CPER below 30.62 and/or GTX below 3860. If 1 of the 2 turn bearish, stocks will take another big leg lower, if both turn bearish, turn out the lights, The Party's Over as Willie sings. Equities will be falling in earnest. If UTIL loses 1051, the stock market may crash.

The bulls need to keep copper and commodities in their camp, they have to keep the red metal bullish due to its impact on the economy, while at the same time push UTIL back above 1113.47, XLF above 52.55, and/or SOX above 6608. Any 1 of the 3 will immediately stop the downward slide in stocks and 2 of the 3 will start a relief rally higher. If all 3 turn bullish, stocks will rally like early this morning and will not give it back like they did today. If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play.

The table is set but boiling it down to something easy, bears will create more pain if copper futures lose -0.5% overnight, and bulls will create stock market joy if UTIL regains 1113.47; copper versus utes.

Also, as the week ends, check UTIL to see where it closes tomorrow in relation to the key line in the sand next week at 1103. If UTIL ends the week above 1103, the bulls are regrouping and may stage a comeback next week. If UTIL ends the week below 1103, especially below 11 hundo, the bears are going to bludgeon the bulls out of the gate on Monday morning. Having fun yet? Cyndi likes to have fun. Back in the days of calling your honey on the telephone.

11/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/21/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/25; 12:02 PM EST = -19; signal line is +7
11/20/25; 12:00 PM EST = -3; signal line is +9
11/20/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +9 but algorithm remains short
11/20/25; 9:00 AM EST = -3; signal line is +10
11/19/25; 2:57 PM EST = -3; signal line is +10
11/19/25; 2:12 PM EST = -19; signal line is +12
11/19/25; 1:10 PM EST = -3; signal line is +13
11/19/25; 12:06 PM EST = -19; signal line is +14
11/19/25; 10:50 AM EST = -3; signal line is +15
11/19/25; 9:49 AM EST = +13; signal line is +16
11/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = -3; signal line is +16
11/18/25; 2:02 PM EST = -3; signal line is +17

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the chips send the stock market to and fro. The bears are in charge with the algo number 20 points below the signal line. The SOX 6625 bull/bear line in the sand was the key metric today controlling stock market direction. Bulls did their best to pump semiconductors higher, and succeeded after lunch, they ate spinach like Popeye, but then they fell on their sword tumbling lower into the close taking equities back down the rabbit hole of despair.

There are a lot of moving parts but to keep it simple, and something yinz can watch, it is likely a game of bearish chips and banks versus bullish utes and copper. The bull/bear lines in the sand are; SOX 6625, XLF 52.70, UTIL 1113.47 and CPER 30.61, respectively. One of them will flinch and likely start a move in that direction.

SOX needs +1.1% of upside and XLF needs +2.6% to help the bulls that may be difficult since the banksters are getting some bad press lately, as the thieves should. Watch the chips and banks in the premarket.

UTIL starts hump day only pennies from disaster. It was the same-o scenario this morning and utilities took off higher like a rocket; the bulls know the seriousness of the situation. UTIL can only lose about -0.3% because if it drops further it will enter the bear camp and inflict serious negative damage on the stock market. CPER only needs to drop -0.6% and it will inflict pain upon the stock market so watch the copper futures overnight to see if they are down -0.6%.

Bears need to keep semi's and banksters in their camp and bring utes and copper over to the bear side as well that will send stocks to Hell.

Bulls need to keep utes and copper in the bull camp and bring chips and banks higher back into their fold to take the stock market back to record highs. 1 of the 4 will flinch and tell you the direction of equities going forward.

That is about as simple as it can be explained now and there are other moving parts. But watch those four parameters for the rest of the week and you will know the direction of the stock market. Now you know what to watch. Let it be said, let it be written, let it be done. Watch it now! Watch it!

Keybot prints a prescheduled number tomorrow morning before the opening bell but that should not change anything.

11/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/21/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/19/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/18/25; 2:02 PM EST = -3; signal line is +17
11/18/25; 1:02 PM EST = +13; signal line is +19
11/18/25; 9:47 AM EST = -3; signal line is +19; go short 6637 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +12.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.4%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +25.1%)(Actual results this trade = -4.9%; Actual results for 2025 = +32.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short after the opening bell at SPX 6637. It is about time. The algo number is 22 points below the signal line. The price action has been very odd the last couple weeks. Chips collapse into the bear camp creating more broad stock market selling.

Watch SOX 6620, the bull/bear line in the sand. Bulls will stop the selling and stabilize the stock market if they push SOX above 6620. If SOX remains below 6620, the market will remain negative and the beatings will continue until moral improves. SOX 6620 is the rudder steering the market ship. As the semiconductors go, so goes the stock market.

Utilities remain elevated that gives the bulls some hope. Banks and chips are in the bear camp and creating negativity. Utes, copper and commodities are in the bull camp helping to support stocks and prevent a collapse.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program loses about -2% and the actual trading generated by the quant loses -5%. That is a slap in the face but no worries. For the year, now getting down to the short strokes, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about +13%. The quant program is up +25% for 2025 and the actual trading is up +33% outperforming the benchmark by nearly 3x. Keybot the Quant exited SSO and entered QID.

SOX is at 6520 so the bulls need 100 points and 6620 and higher to stop the stock market selling. The drama continues. Live is still Selling the Drama.

11/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/21/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/19/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/18/25; 9:47 AM EST = -3; signal line is +19; go short 6637 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +12.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.4%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +25.1%)(Actual results this trade = -4.9%; Actual results for 2025 = +32.5%)
11/16/25; 7:00 PM EST = +13; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/10/25; 9:37 AM EST = +13; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
11/10/25; 11:53 AM EST = +29; signal line is +24
11/10/25; 10:44 AM EST = +13; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
11/10/25; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +27; go long 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +27.5%)(Actual results this trade = +3.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +37.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after a wild and crazy week. The cage match between the banksters and volatility played out during the week with the banks running higher but volatility would not move lower. Then, the banks reversed and failed at XLF 52.79 creating stock market sogginess.

The dip-buyers remain active so any move lower is met with a sharp relief rally creating choppy sideways slop for the last few weeks. Banks, utilities, volatility, copper and commodities are dictating stock market direction currently. Banks and volatility are creating market negativity while utilities, copper and commodities support the stock market.

UTIL, or DJU, ends the week at 1113.61. Remember, a couple weeks ago, the Keybot the Quant robot called out 1113.47 as the bull/bear line in the sand for the week of 11/17/25. Well, isn't that a fine how do you do? The robot called out this key number 2 weeks ahead of time. Of course it did. It is Keybot.

Utilities are a game of pennies as the new week of trading begins. Pay attention to UTIL 1113.47 the bull/bear line in the sand for this week. For next week, it will be UTIL 1103.18 and the 1113.47 number becomes meaningless. If UTIL falls below 1113.47 this week, only pennies away, it will create stock market negativity.

At Friday afternoon at 4 PM EST as trading ends for the regular session for the week, check UTIL, or DJU, to see if it is above or below 1103.18 since that will give you a heads-up for trading the week of 11/24/25. The bulls simply need to keep UTIL above 1113.47 and they should be fine preventing any significant drop in stocks. If utes begin falling apart, however, creating negativity, watch UTIL 1050 since that will trigger a big drop in the stock market and place an all-out major crash on the table.

XLF 52.79 is a line in the sand and with price starting the week at 52.45, the bears do not have much. Bulls will create happy stocks immediately if they can push XLF above 52.79. If price remains below, a pall will remain over the stock market going forward.

The quant is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 8 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not fully latch yet to permit the move. If the SPX drops below 6647, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

This is a long ways down from the starting price for the new week of trading at 6734. If utes turn negative, the quant may flip short right away when/if that happens. You have to just wait to see what the 1's and 0's do since the robot is dealing with several moving parts currently.

It was surprising that the quant did not flip short last week. The week ahead may be historic for the stock market. A late and revised US Monthly Jobs report, due to the government shutdown, will likely be released on Thursday and that will obviously impact stocks.

There is a new cage match; banksters versus utilities. It is XLF 52.79 versus UTIL 1113.47. Since the quant wants to flip short now, the bulls must push financials higher or they are screwed big-time. If UTIL loses the 1113.47 and banks remain negative, you will start to see the downside in the stock market gain traction and the quant will likely flip short.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Wednesday morning and the other on Friday morning. Stocks are jumping around like Jumpin' Jack Flash. But it's all right now, in fact its a gas, gas, gas.

11/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/21/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/19/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/16/25; 7:00 PM EST = +13; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/10/25; 9:37 AM EST = +13; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
11/10/25; 11:53 AM EST = +29; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side to start the new week of trading. The bulls are in control of the stock market but the algo number is only 5 points above the signal line that is not much.

The bulls win the day riding the backs of the banksters. XLF pops to 52.97 fueling the 'end of the government shutdown' orgy. The SPX finishes up over one hundo points to 6832. Bulls are walking around with their chests puffed out and the banks in their back pockets.

Tuesday will be a cage match. There are a lot of cage matches lately with odd results. One cage match ended with the two metrics switching positions another ended in a draw. People do not pay to see such weak duels. Perhaps tomorrow will be different.

It is banks versus volatility. Two will enter the cage but only one will exit and stocks will go in that direction. XLF 52.80 and VIX 16.69 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. The bullish banks are creating stock market lift while the bearish elevated volatility creates stock market negativity. One of them will flinch.

Bulls need to keep banks elevated and moving higher while pushing the VIX below 16.69. If so, stocks will be catapulting higher probably to new record highs.

Bears need to keep volatility elevated and moving higher while pulling XLF below 52.80. If so, you will notice an immediate pall develop in the stock market. Dark clouds will form. If banks turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6771, Keybot the Quant will likely turn bearish. It is a tall ask because the SPX will need to drop over -60 points. Hump day may be a better set-up for a potential whipsaw back to the short side

Banks and volatility will tell you the direction of the stock market tomorrow.

Happy Birthday to the United States Marine Corps. Ooh Rah. The Marines' Hymn.

11/16/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/10/25; 11:53 AM EST = +29; signal line is +24
11/10/25; 10:44 AM EST = +13; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side at SPX 6805 after the opening bell for the new week of trading. Banks bounce and stocks are getting a lift on the hope for a resolution to the US government shutdown. So up we go, but the banksters stumble and fall on their sword, slumping over again, but now trying to recover.

It is all about the banks and the XLF 52.80 bull/bear line in the sand. Bulls win above XLF 52.80 and stocks will jump strongly higher with lower volatility.

Bears will win below XLF 52.80, like now, by pennies, and need to drag copper, commodities and utilities lower if they want to create stock market carnage.

For now, the bulls are in control but the bears are champing at the bit to take the ball back immediately with the algo number 12 points below the signal line. Watch for a potential whipsaw back to the short side over the next day. It is all about the banks.

On the last trade that ran just shy of a couple weeks, the quant program gains about a percent and the actual trading gains over +3% helped by the collapse in the tech stocks. Sometimes the specific ETF helps and sometimes it hurts; this time it helped. For the year that is in its last few weeks, as guitarists practice Christmas songs that everyone will want to hear, the benchmark SPX is up about +16%. America's wealthy class will be happy with that this year. The quant program is up about +28% and the actual trading triggered by the quant gains over +37% thus far this year outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by over 2x. Keybot the Quant exited QID and entered SSO. May as well kick off the season with the top radio-play Christmas song for the last several years. Mariah Carey shaking her money-maker.

Watch XLF 52.80. You do not have to watch the broad stock market indexes because watching XLF 52.80 will tell you what they are doing.

11/16/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/10/25; 10:44 AM EST = +13; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
11/10/25; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +27; go long 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +27.5%)(Actual results this trade = +3.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +37.4%)
11/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = +13; signal line is +27
11/7/25; 10:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +28
11/7/25; 9:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +29
11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +13; signal line is +30
10/31/25; 10:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +31
10/31/25; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +32
10/30/25; 3:07 PM EST = +13; signal line is +31
10/30/25; 12:13 PM EST = +27; signal line is +31
10/30/25; 11:42 AM EST = +13; signal line is +30
10/30/25; 11:15 AM EST = +27; signal line is +30
10/30/25; 10:08 AM EST = +13; signal line is +29
10/30/25; 9:52 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29
10/30/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +28
10/30/25; 9:17 AM EST = +27; signal line is +28
10/30/25; 9:10 AM EST = +13; signal line is +27
10/30/25; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
10/29/25; 3:19 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26
10/29/25; 3:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
10/29/25; 2:41 PM EST = +13; signal line is +25; go short 6856 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +16.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +26.8%)(Actual results this trade = +4.2%; Actual results for 2025 = +34.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 14 points below the signal line. The stock market is a coin-flip right now with the bulls trying to stage a comeback. New York Comeback.

The bulls pumped the utilities last week with UTIL at 1127 above the critical line in the sand at 1107.90 for all of this week that will create stock market negativity if it fails.

The stock market was stick-saved on Friday afternoon when someone coughed and it sounded like he said the US government shutdown may be resolved. The dip-buyers were tripping over each other buying stocks with reckless abandon bringing the SPX back to the flat line after a steep drop.

The banksters will tell the story out of the gate tomorrow. XLF rallied up to 52.78 during the bull orgy on Friday only 3 pennies from the XLF 52.81 line in the sand. Check XLF in the pre-market and you will know who will win the day on Monday. Bears must hold the XLF 52.81 line in the sand or they will fold like a cheap suit.

If the bulls can push XLF three cents higher above 52.81, and remain above, stocks will rally, and consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX overtakes 6730, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Thus, if you see XLF above 52.81 in the premarket with the S&P futures positive, the bulls are likely going to win the day, and this is an easy bar to step over.

If bearish, you want to see XLF remain below 52.81, and for copper futures to fall -0.8%, and utilities to weaken. If copper futures are positive overnight, that is another feather in the bull's cap.

There are no prescheduled numbers on tap this week. XLF 52.81 determines who wins and who loses. Even the Losers. The bulls have it on a silver platter if they want. The Platters.

11/16/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = +13; signal line is +27
11/7/25; 10:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +28
11/7/25; 9:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +29
11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +13; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as a sleepy week muddles along. The robot has not printed any numbers this week but the prescheduled numbers will print tomorrow morning. The bears are in control with the algo number 17 points below the signal line.

The copper versus banks cage match is a dud with people demanding their money back because copper remains bullish and banks bearish. Neither has flinched. And VIX remains above the 16.62 line in the sand creating negativity in the stock market. GTX, commodities, are above the 3841 line in the sand creating positivity in the stock market. The status is quo.

Thus, getting back to copper and banks, the cage match is back on. The quant is tracking these two metrics as the top influencers on the stock market right now. CPER 30.42 and XLF 52.79 are the bull/bear lines in the sand, respectively. Copper, CPER, is above 30.42 at 30.83 creating bullishness in the stock market. Bears need a -1.3% drop in copper futures overnight or tomorrow to celebrate more stock market carnage.

Financials, XLF, are below 52.79 at 52.41 creating bearishness in the stock market. Bulls need a +0.7% gain in the banksters to signal that the stock market selling has stopped, markets are stable, and the quant may be in position to flip long.

Thus, very simply, if CPER loses 30.42, stocks are toast. If XLF regains 52.79, stocks will rally and recover and the robot may flip long. It is a cage match rematch. One of the two will flinch and the stock market will follow.

Utilities are sneaking around in the stock market bushes. Go back a couple posts to read the mumbo-jumbo about utes. UTIL 1107.90 is a bull/bear line in the sand for all of next week. UTIL is at 1113 with only the Friday session remaining this week. Check to see where UTIL closes at 4 PM EST tomorrow because it tells you what the stock market will do next week.

If UTIL ends this week above 1108, like it is now, the bulls are hanging in there and will continue trying to wrestle back control of the stock market. If UTIL, of DJU, ends the week below 1108, only 5 ticks below where it will begin tomorrow, next week will be ugly with stocks likely dropping out of the gate on Monday morning. Let it Drop by Sports Team. Be a monkey in a tie.

11/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/7/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +13; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short  with the algo number 17 points below the signal line. The bears growl but the quant has not printed any numbers this week yet so the bears got buptkis.

Tomorrow, hump day, is a cage match. Two will enter but only one will exit taking the stock market in that direction. The battle is between copper and banks. The lines in the sand are CPER 30.41 creating stock market bullishness, and XLF 52.79 creating bearishness.

Bears need weaker copper because it opens the floodgates to pain and misery in the stock market. CPER begins tomorrow at 30.53 only pennies away from disaster. You can watch copper futures overnight to see if a -0.4% drop occurs, if so, the US stock market will be in big trouble.

Bulls need to keep copper in their camp while at the same time pumping banks higher. Bulls need XLF above 52.79, again, another number only pennies away from tomorrow's starting point at 52.42. Watch XLF in the pre-market to see if it is up +0.7%, if so, the bulls are coming to play and will try to reestablish the rally party. If VIX drops below 16.62, stocks will be catapulting higher in a festive mood.

The quant likely needs to see both XLF and VIX flip bullish to flip long. If both metrics turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 6820, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. If only 1 of the 2 flips bullish, watch to see if it oscillates above and below the lines in the sand, if so, that is good for the bulls going forward because it may jog the robot forward to where only 1 of the 2 metrics are needed to flip long.

If copper remains bullish, and banks remain bearish, that will not be much of a cage match. Watch CPER, XLF and VIX since 1 of the 3 will likely flinch and tell you the answer forward. Tomorrow should provide the answer on whether stocks will begin Free Fallin' as per Tom Petty, or not.

11/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/7/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +13; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend. The bulls rally stocks but it is irrelevant with the VIX moving higher. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 17 points below the signal line.

Retail sales, banks and volatility crippled the stock market last week but it is still limping along trying to crawl higher. XRT 83.90, XLF 52.84 and VIX 16.71 are the bull/bear lines in the sand that failed creating the last couple days of soggy stocks. You can check the VIX in overnight trading and the other two in the premarket to see if the bears remain in good shape (remember, the VIX moves inverse to the stock market).

The bulls likely need 2 of the 3 metrics to turn bullish to start the upward stock market joy again. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX moves above 6879 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Bears need to keep the 3 metrics above negative and at the same time punch copper, commodities and utilities lower to create more negativity. GTX below 3836 would greatly help the bears.

Utilities are falling apart when no one is looking. UTIL 1082.51 is the key bull/bear line in the sand for the week ahead. Price begins at 1111. There will be huge trouble for stocks if 1082 fails. Further, for the week of 11/10/25, UTIL 1107.90 is the line in the sand. Thus, watch UTIL, or DJU, at the end of the week on Friday at 4 PM EST. If UTIL is below 1108, there will be trouble in equity land the week of 11/10/25.

At any time over the next month, if UTIL 1048 fails, there is an extremely high probability that the stock market will crash. Utilities have trailed lower for 3 weeks an ominous sign. When utes lead the broad market lower, it means the pullback will be uber nasty. So UTIL will be fun to watch over the coming days.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week both on Friday morning one before the opening bell and one shortly after. November trading begins tomorrow with only 2 months remaining in the year.

11/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/7/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +13; signal line is +30
10/31/25; 10:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +31
10/31/25; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +32
10/30/25; 3:07 PM EST = +13; signal line is +31
10/30/25; 12:13 PM EST = +27; signal line is +31
10/30/25; 11:42 AM EST = +13; signal line is +30
10/30/25; 11:15 AM EST = +27; signal line is +30
10/30/25; 10:08 AM EST = +13; signal line is +29
10/30/25; 9:52 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the robot off to an active start for Thursday. The bears remain in control of the stock market but the algo number is only 2 measly points below the signal line.

Volatility is playing a top role in the stock market drama. Watch VIX 16.70 the bull/bear line in the sand. Above and bears win with stocks selling off. Below and bulls win with stocks stabilizing and starting a new rally. VIX falls to 16.46 right now so the bulls are winning this minute.

XLF 52.87 and XRT 84.17 are two more lines in the sand and prices remain below so the bears are happy about this.

GTX 3834 is the commodities line in the sand with price at 3889 creating stock market bullishness.

Thus, VIX and GTX are creating market joy while XRT and XLF create market angst. 1 of the 4 will flinch and send stocks in that direction. Simply watch those lines in the sand. The VIX 16.70 line in the sand is key today. Bears are hanging on by their fingernails. You Give Love a Bad Name. Paint your smile, on your lips, blood red nails on your fingertips.

11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/25; 9:52 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29
10/30/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +28
10/30/25; 9:17 AM EST = +27; signal line is +28
10/30/25; 9:10 AM EST = +13; signal line is +27
10/30/25; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
10/29/25; 3:19 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 6856 at 2:41 PM EST this afternoon as Pope Powell was tap-dancing in front of reporters. Banks, volatility and retail stocks all failed today sending equities down the rabbit hole. The Fed tried to push volatility lower into the close accounting for the recovery in the stock indexes but the VIX beach ball would not stay underwater.

Traders hit the sell button when Chairman Powell said a 12/10/25 rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. The quant is active today spitting out 7 numbers and flipping short. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 13 points below the signal line. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw tomorrow although the tech earnings this evening are sh*tting the bed and will likely create soggy futures into tomorrow.

VIX 16.70, XRT 84.17 and XLF 52.83, volatility, retail stocks and banks, respectively, are driving the stock market to and fro. All 3 are bearish creating todays gloom. Bears need to keep all 3 bearish and deteriorating further while also trying to weaken commodities and pull GTX below 3835 to cause real trouble.

The bulls need any 1 of the 3 bearish metrics above to turn bullish and that will stabilize the stock market and prevent anymore downside in equities. Bulls need VIX below 16.70, you can check this overnight, XRT above 84.17 and/or XLF above 52.83. Any 1 of the 3 would do. These three parameters will tell you the story on the stock market.

On the last trade that ran for only 9 days, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains about +4%. For the year, the benchmark SPX is up nearly +17% a bigtime year if it holds. The Keybot the Quant program is up +27% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a humungous +34% thus far this year. Put that in your pipe, or bong, and smoke it. Can't Believe We're Here. Keybot exited SSO and entered QID remaining in 2x leveraged ETF's.

11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/29/25; 3:19 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26
10/29/25; 3:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
10/29/25; 2:41 PM EST = +13; signal line is +25; go short 6856 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +16.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +26.8%)(Actual results this trade = +4.2%; Actual results for 2025 = +34.0%)
10/29/25; 1:12 PM EST = +29; signal line is +26
10/29/25; 11:27 AM EST = +43; signal line is +26
10/29/25; 9:52 AM EST = +29; signal line is +26
10/29/25; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +27
10/28/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +26
10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +25
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +22
10/24/25; 9:37 AM EST = +59; signal line is +21
10/24/25; 8:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +19
10/21/25; 1:26 PM EST = +29; signal line is +17
10/21/25; 11:22 AM EST = +45; signal line is +17
10/21/25; 9:51 AM EST = +31; signal line is +15
10/21/25; 9:42 AM EST = +45; signal line is +15
10/20/25; 9:37 AM EST = +29; signal line is +15; go long 6711 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +14.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +29.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the euphoric bull rally continues in the stock market. The bulls are in full control of stocks with the algo number 34 points above the signal line. It is a simple set-up for the week forward.

Volatility and banks are all that matter. Bears need VIX above 16.96 and XLF below 52.86 to turn equities sour. If 1 of the 2 parameters turn bearish, consider the caution flag to be out. If both turn bearish, consider that the imminent turn to the short side is in play.

If both parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6772 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. VIX will be trading in the early hours tomorrow and XLF can be checked pre-market to find out what will happen in the day ahead. Obviously, if both metrics remain in the bull camp, stocks will remain elevated with more all-time record highs likely.

On Friday, 10/24/25, the SPX prints the highest number in history at 6807.11. It is time for the "SPX 6.8K" hats. The all-time closing high is 6791.69 on Friday so bears need volatility and banks to turn bearish and for the SPX to drop about 20 points if they want to growl.

The quant prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning and the month of October ends on Friday on Halloween. November trading begins next Monday. The Halloween anthem is the Monster Mash a fun song.

11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/28/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +25
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +22

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number a big 37 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising. Wheeee! Whoopie! The bulls are in party mode after the tame inflation data means the Fed will lower rates and print money for as far as the eye can see. That dough flows into the stock market making the rich richer. It is beautiful crony capitalism filth. Rejoice! It is the weekend and time to go to Party Town. Glenn told the bears to kiss his *ss; it is party time, drink some Fed wine, and buy stocks.

VIX fell out of bed when the inflation data dropped so the fix was in. Futures ran higher like a banshee. After the cash open, banks (XLF) catapult higher taking the stock market to new all-time record highs. Bulls are throwing confetti and buying equities without a care in the world after they shoot the Fed crack into their arm. Voodoo. They buy stocks when they feel the Fed snakebite enter their veins.

Since the VIX 16.96 and XLF 52.86 bull/bear lines in the sand were blown through, these will need to reverse if the bears want to growl. If these two metrics remain in the bull camp, it is nothing but upside for stocks as the euphoric bull party continues. 

VIX is at 16.47 moving dead flat for the last half hour. Bears need the VIX 49 cents higher or they got nothing. XLF is at 53.12 slapping the bears in the face. Bears need a drop of 26 cents in XLF to create stock market sogginess and negativity.

Bulls want to try and keep stocks elevated into hump day next week when Pope Powell will bring the tablets down from On High and tell international traders how to trade.

10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +22
10/24/25; 9:37 AM EST = +59; signal line is +21
10/24/25; 8:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +19
10/21/25; 1:26 PM EST = +29; signal line is +17

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market oddities continue. Today it was all about the banksters and commodities. Banks rallied helping bulls but then fell on their sword in the afternoon. Commodities failed helping bears but an hour or so later they recover and 'all will be forgiven' as Jenny sings. Red Bull & Hennessy.

The bulls are in charge of the stock market with the algo number 12 points above the signal line. Tomorrow is the same-o set-up as today. XRT and GTX are in the bull camp creating stock market upside while XLF and VIX are in the bear camp creating downside. One of the four will flinch and stocks will go in that direction.

Bears need XRT below 84.12 and/or GTX below 3814. Either one will do to create the imminent turn to the shortside. If 1 of the 2 turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6722 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Bulls need XLF above 52.86, where there was drama all day long today, to create the next leg higher in the stock market and more bullish euphoria. Bulls also need VIX below 16.96, now only a stick below current price, to begin party time with new all-time stock market records guaranteed. Choose your poison. Everybody has a Poison Heart. Salute to CBGB's.

Focus on XLF 52.86 and GTX 3814 since this was all the action today. Also, watch the VIX 16.96 line in the sand since the bulls are pushing volatility lower. These three will tell you what happens to the stock market tomorrow. You will know XLF and VIX before the cash open.

Bulls are trying to keep the stock market elevated until next Wednesday, 10/29/25, when Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High and tells global traders how to trade.

10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = 
10/21/25; 1:26 PM EST = +29; signal line is +17
10/21/25; 11:22 AM EST = +45; signal line is +17
10/21/25; 9:51 AM EST = +31; signal line is +15
10/21/25; 9:42 AM EST = +45; signal line is +15
10/20/25; 9:37 AM EST = +29; signal line is +15; go long 6711 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +14.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +29.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 6711 after this morning's opening bell. Retail stocks and commodities jump into the bull camp driving the indexes higher. Everyone is doing the Wooly Bully with Sam the Sham and the Pharaohs. Hard-core bikers grooved to Sam the Sham in the 1960's and early 70's. Watch it now! Watch it!

The path ahead becomes trickier with more moving parts. The quant is tracking retail stocks, commodities, banks and volatility. That is the whole ball of wax controlling stock market direction. Retail stocks and commodities are bullish creating market lift while banks and volatility are bearish creating a pall on the stock market. One or two of the metrics will flip sides and tell you the path ahead.

The bull/bar lines in the sand are XRT 84.08, GTX 3814, XLF 52.87 and VIX 16.97, respectively. The bulls goosed XRT and GTX that are comfortably in the bull camp. XLF is at 52.79 only pennies away from 52.87 that will create another big up leg in the stock market with bulls throwing confetti. XLF trades at 52.83 only 4 pennies away in the after-hours trading. If the VIX falls below 16.97, the bulls will receive more juice as stocks will then strive to make new all-time record highs.

Obviously, the bears need to keep XLF and VIX in their camp while at the same time start smacking XRT and GTX lower. Interestingly, bears need XRT to turn bearish to place the quant in position to go short. GTX turning bearish may not be enough unless it jogs above and below 3814 a couple-few times.

If retail stocks fail into the bear camp, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play and if the SPX loses 6690 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side.

On the last trade that ran for only 10 days, the algo program and actual trading post marginal losses. For the year that is getting long in the tooth, the SPX is up  +14% with the quant program up +25% and the actual trading generated by the quant up +30% outperforming the benchmark by over 2x. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SSO.

10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/20/25; 9:37 AM EST = +29; signal line is +15; go long 6711 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +14.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +29.8%)
10/20/25; 9:36 AM EST = +15; signal line is +16
10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +16
10/17/25; 3:38 PM EST = -1; signal line is +18
10/17/25; 2:25 PM EST = +15; signal line is +19
10/17/25; 12:44 PM EST = -1; signal line is +20
10/17/25; 11:52 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
10/17/25; 11:18 AM EST = -1; signal line is +22
10/17/25; 9:58 AM EST = +15; signal line is +23
10/17/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +24
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +25
10/16/25; 2:33 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26
10/16/25; 2:21 PM EST = -1; signal line is +28
10/16/25; 1:47 PM EST = +13; signal line is +29
10/16/25; 9:41 AM EST = +29; signal line is +31
10/15/25; 1:30 PM EST = +45; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
10/15/25; 1:18 PM EST = +31; signal line is +32
10/14/25; 11:56 AM EST = +45; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
10/14/25; 11:46 AM EST = +31; signal line is +33
10/14/25; 10:18 AM EST = +15; signal line is +34
10/14/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +35
10/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +37
10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +39
10/10/25; 11:33 AM EST = -1; signal line is +41
10/10/25; 11:04 AM EST = +13; signal line is +43; go short 6692 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +13.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.8%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.9%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +30.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short the stock market with the algo number 17 points below the signal line. That is not much considering that key parameters such as retail stocks, banks and commodities, are all teetering on the edge of their bull/bear lines in the sand.

The cage match between retail stocks and commodities had both sides switching camps to the other side, a draw, but as the Friday session played out, the negativity prevailed with retail stocks.

Retail stocks, banks and commodities are all that matter to the stock market right now. XRT 84.04 is the line in the sand and price is at 84.02. Do you think Keybot is a smart robot to call out these numbers before they occur? The bulls only need two cents higher to pull the retail stocks back into their camp and create lift in the broad stock market. The bears must move XRT lower if they want to growl.

XLF 52.92 is the banksters line in the sand with price at 52.18. Watch it in the premarket to see the story forward. Bulls win big if XLF moves above 52.92; the upside stock market rally will continue. The bears need to keep XLF in their camp and heading lower to bring more negativity into the stock market.

GTX 3814.40 is the line in the sand, er grain, for the commodities. Price is at 3804 another metric sitting on the line in the bear camp. The bulls need GTX above 3814 heading higher to pave the road to more stock market gains. The bears need to keep GTX in their camp and heading lower to maintain and increase stock market selling pressure.

If any 2 of the 3 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play. Also, if only one metric turns bullish, and then jogs back to bearish, then bullish again, the quant is likely only focused on this metric and it will decide the path forward. Of course, if all 3 flip bullish, stocks will be leaping higher in a euphoric confetti atmosphere.

Copper remains in the bull camp supporting the stock market. Bears need a -3.2% drop in the red metal to create carnage in stocks.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday shortly after the opening bell. Write a note to yourself to watch the retail stocks such as AMZN, WMT, banksters such as JPM, BAC and C, and regionals that are on shaky ground, KRE, and commodities, GTX and CRB, also DBA, that reflect goods inflation. Take a Letter, Maria.

10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +16
10/17/25; 3:38 PM EST = -1; signal line is +18
10/17/25; 2:25 PM EST = +15; signal line is +19
10/17/25; 12:44 PM EST = -1; signal line is +20
10/17/25; 11:52 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
10/17/25; 11:18 AM EST = -1; signal line is +22
10/17/25; 9:58 AM EST = +15; signal line is +23
10/17/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +24
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +25
10/16/25; 2:33 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. It is an active week for the quant and it is not over yet. Retail stocks, banks and commodities are running the show. This week, all three metrics flipped bullish in quick order, that typically guarantees a model flip to the long side but not this time. Today, the same three metrics flip negative creating the stock market selloff. This drama will continue.

The bears are controlling the stock market with the algo number only 13 points below the signal line nothing to write home about. Stocks are chopping waiting for a definitive move up or down.

XRT 84.05, XLF 52.92, VIX 16.88 and GTX 3814.60 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. The first 3 are in the bear camp creating negativity while GTX (commodities) is helping the bulls by a hair.

GTX is at 3818 so you can cough and it may slip back below the 3814.60 line in the sand that will bring more stock market selling.

XRT is at 83.96 only 9 pennies in the bear camp so you can burp and it can pop back above the 84.05 in a heartbeat.

Thus, Friday will be a cage match after the prescheduled number prints pre-market. Two will enter but only one will exit and stocks will go in that direction. It is retail stocks versus commodities, XRT vs. GTX.

Bears will begin biting hard and wreak havoc in the stock market into the weekend if GTX loses 3814.60. Bulls will get a foothold on the market and push stocks higher if they can push XRT above 84.05. One of them will flinch and tell you the market story.

Watch copper futures because a couple percent drop would spell trouble for stocks and a drop of -3% or more will likely tank the stock market.

Is the stock market six feet from the edge perhaps taking One Last Breath?

10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/25; 2:33 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26
10/16/25; 2:21 PM EST = -1; signal line is +28
10/16/25; 1:47 PM EST = +13; signal line is +29
10/16/25; 9:41 AM EST = +29; signal line is +31
10/15/25; 1:30 PM EST = +45; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
10/15/25; 1:18 PM EST = +31; signal line is +32
10/14/25; 11:56 AM EST = +45; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
10/14/25; 11:46 AM EST = +31; signal line is +33
10/14/25; 10:18 AM EST = +15; signal line is +34
10/14/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +35
10/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +37
10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +39

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flipped short on Friday after King Donnie tanked the stock market. The bears are controlling the stock market currently with the algo number 40 points below the signal line. The robot is tracking copper, commodities, banks, retail stocks and volatility as the key drivers of stock market direction. Copper is the only metric that is in the bull camp creating market lift; the other four are in the bear camp creating market angst and selling pressure.

The bull/bear lines in the sand, that will be a good judge for yinz for most of the week ahead, are CPER 29.58, GTX 3814.75, XLF 53.10, XRT 84, and VIX 16.60. Any move by these parameters across their lines in the sand sends the stock market in that same direction. Easy-peasy.

XRT is at 81 so that will be quite a lift to get back on the bull side. XLF is only about -2% below its critical number and that can be made up if the bankster earnings are joyful. It likely leads to long-time trouble and market downside if XLF cannot recover above 53.10 this week. Volatility shot skyward after Donnie's tariff comments and the bears are happy to see the VIX above 21. GTX is only a few dollars away from the bull/bear line in the sand so you can sneeze and it will pop back above.

CPER is +2.3% above the bull/bear line in the sand so the bulls will try to keep the red metal in their camp, otherwise, all hope will be lost for the stock market. Watch the copper futures.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean as the Pennsylvania leaves turn color and the Laurel Highlands lights-up in a brilliant Autumn display. California Dreamin'. They sure could sing.

XLF, GTX, VIX and CPER will tell the story for the week ahead. Check VIX and copper futures overnight for hints of what will happen in the US session. The bulls likely need all 3 metrics, banks, commodities, and volatility, to jump back into their camp to save the day and keep their rally hopes alive. Two of the three will likely not cut it. If copper drops more than -2%, it may place a crash on the table. It's fun.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. Banks, commodities and copper are the focus as the new week begins.

10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =-1; signal line is +39
10/10/25; 11:33 AM EST = -1; signal line is +41

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips short at SPX 6692 at 11:04 AM EST yesterday. A Black Friday occurs after President Trump slaps tariffs on China in retaliation for restrictions placed on rare earth minerals. The rift creates stock market angst.

The banksters failed first, then volatility, then commodities. Retail stocks were already floating in the toilet bowl. The robot has been champing at the bit to go short this month and finally finds the right entry. As always, stay alert for a potential whipsaw but the algo number is 42 points below the signal line a formidable deficit.

The quant is tracking commodities (GTX), volatility (VIX), and banks/financials (XLF). All 3 are in the bear camp creating market mayhem. The key bull/bear lines in the sand can be pulled from the quant tomorrow with the standard Sunday number.

On the last trade, that ran from late August to early October, a long trade for the Keybot the Quant robot, call it 2 months, the algorithm program gains almost +4% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains +7%. For the year thus far, with only 2-1/2 months of trading remaining, the benchmark S&P 500 is up almost +14%. The Keybot the Quant algo program is up about +25% this year and the actual trading is up a big +30% two times the benchmark. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's. The bulls are Saying Goodbye to the rally like Ondara. 

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 11:33 AM EST = -1; signal line is +41
10/10/25; 11:04 AM EST = +13; signal line is +43; go short 6692 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +13.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.8%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.9%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +30.4%)
10/10/25; 11:03 AM EST = +13; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 11:01 AM EST = +27; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST = +43; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 8:58 AM EST = +43; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 8:40 AM EST = +29; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 7:07 AM EST = +43; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 5:48 AM EST = +29; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
10/9/25; 3:22 PM EST = +43; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
10/9/25; 9:58 AM EST = +29; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 1:02 PM EST = +43; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:34 AM EST = +29; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:24 AM EST = +43; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 11:12 AM EST = +29; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 9:58 AM EST = +43; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 10:45 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = +45; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 7:51 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 7:07 AM EST = +45; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 4:58 AM EST = +59; signal line is +53
10/6/25; 4:32 AM EST = +45; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:17 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:10 PM EST = +45; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 5:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 3:06 AM EST = +45; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
9/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +59; signal line is +50
9/30/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +49
9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
9/26/25; 7:39 AM EST = +60; signal line is +46
9/26/25; 7:27 AM EST = +46; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 7:14 AM EST = +60; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 6:53 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 5:12 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 4:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43
9/25/25; 2:43 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42
9/25/25; 1:45 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 10:16 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 7:48 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
9/24/25; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
9/24/25; 12:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +37
9/24/25; 9:48 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
9/23/25; 3:50 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
9/23/25; 2:56 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/14/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/12/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/4/25; 10:23 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/4/25; 9:42 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 3:48 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 1:45 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 1:04 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:43 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 12:24 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:16 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 11:44 AM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/3/25; 11:31 AM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:56 PM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/2/25; 2:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:18 PM EST = +14; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 1:44 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/2/25; 1:38 PM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:48 AM EST = +14; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:10 AM EST = +28; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:57 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/2/25; 9:56 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 8:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +36
8/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/22/25; 10:02 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35; go long 6448 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +21.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +23.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market drama heats-up. Commodities are strong that will likely lead to goods inflation. The robot is champing at the bit to go short and fixated on retail stocks, volatility and banks. The bears want control of the stock market with the algo number 9 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not fully latch yet to permit the move.

If the SPX drops below 6718 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

Retail stocks are holding down the bear camp with the XRT 84.74 line in the sand. Price is at 84.51 creating bearishness in the stock market.

Volatility and banks are helping the bulls maintain stock market buoyancy and create the new all-time record high at 6755.64 and new all-time closing high at 6753.72 yesterday, 10/8/25.

VIX 16.57 is the bull/bear line in the sand and it is trading in real-time at 16.50 only 7 pennies on the bull side. XLF 53.20 is the bull/bear line for the banksters with price at 53.51 only 31 cents away from disaster. The banks fell yesterday and no one noticed. XLF fell to 53.29 only 9 pennies away from creating market mayhem before recovering.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? Bears win and the quant will likely flip short if the SPX loses 6718. If VIX pops back above 16.57 heading higher, stocks will deteriorate. If XLF loses 53.20, it is lights-out for the stock market that will tumbling lower. If stocks drop but the VIX and XLF remain bullish, the bears got nothing.

If stocks rally, but the VIX moves above 16.57 and remains above, stocks will reverse and move lower. Bulls need XRT above 84.74 to prove that they got game. If stocks rally, but XRT remains below 84.74, the bulls got nothing and stocks will reverse and start dropping.

VIX is at 16.48 (bullish). XRT sits at 84.51 (bearish). XLF is 53.51 unchanged in early trading (bullish). Let the festivities begin. One of these three will flinch. Have a nice day. Doris Day. Que Sera Sera.

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/8/25; 1:02 PM EST = +43; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:34 AM EST = +29; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:24 AM EST = +43; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 11:12 AM EST = +29; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after an exciting start to the week. Monday was more volatility games with the quant printing 6 numbers. Today the robot prints two numbers potentially paving the way to Hades. The algo number is 24 points below the signal line so the bears are champing at the bit to take control of the stock market. Alas, the internal parameters would not latch to permit the move, and then they all latched, but needed to hold it for 2 more minutes, but could not. All this drama occurred around 11 AM EST-ish this morning.

Volatility, banks and commodities remain key but retail stocks come out of left field tumbling lower down the hill for the last couple days, like Uncle Ralph at the summer picnic after he drank one too many highballs. XRT 84.65 is the bull/bear line in the sand that was vaporized this morning leading to much of the weakness in the stock market. Everyone is looking at tech and AI stocks but they forgot to look at retail stocks.

VIX jumped above the key 16.57 bull/bear line in the sand (remember, these numbers are constantly being calculated) and kept running above 17 today creating more stock market angst. Despite both retail stocks and volatility shunning the bull camp and now joining the bears, the robot did not flip short yet. If the SPX loses the 6700 level tomorrow, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. This is a 15-point drop so check the S&P futures overnight to see if -15 points are on the board to set up Wednesday.

The bull/bear line in the sand for commodities is GTX 3823 and XLF 53.23 is the line in the sand for the banksters. It is a tag team match for hump day; retail stocks and volatility, in the bear corner, versus commodities and banks, in the bull corner. Interestingly, the bulls need both XRT back above 84.65 and VIX below 16.57 to save the day. Bulls are toast if they cannot drag these two metrics back into their camp.

Bears need the SPX below 6700 so the model can flip short. Also, GTX losing 3823 and XLF losing 53.23 will send stocks to Hell. If stocks rally, but retail stocks and volatility remain in the bear camp, the stock market will roll back over to the downside and fall apart. If stocks sell off, but a sustainable sub 6700 SPX cannot be attained, the quant will likely remain long. If stocks sell off, and XLF 53.23 and GTX 3823 will not fail, the bears do not have much oomph and stocks should chop sideways.

The SPX prints a new all-time high a 6754.49 today, the highest number in history. SPX 6700, retail stocks and volatility will tell you the story for tomorrow. It may be an historic day. Are the bears staging a New York Comeback a la Lucinda with Bruce singing back-up vocals? Two great songwriters. Lucinda took a stroke and cannot play guitar anymore but she can still sing.

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/7/25; 11:12 AM EST = +29; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 9:58 AM EST = +43; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 10:45 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = +45; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 7:51 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 7:07 AM EST = +45; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 4:58 AM EST = +59; signal line is +53
10/6/25; 4:32 AM EST = +45; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as volatility plays more games. VIX went above the 16.87 bull/bear line in the sand so stocks started falling apart. In comes the Fed, wrestling Uncle Vix to the ground and then maintaining their jackboot on his neck allowing stocks to recover. Alas, like a beachball that you try to hold underwater, the VIX pops higher again during the last 15 minutes of Friday trading but remains pennies below the key 16.87 at 16.65 in the bull camp. The Beach Boys down in Kokomo; no, they did not sing that 'Vermont's a rotten state' (like many people think they hear) they are actually singing Martinique, 'that Montserrat mystique'.

Banks and commodities are also only small amounts away from their bull/bear lines in the sand. Watch XLF 53.12 and GTX 3815, respectively. On Thursday, the bears pushed the banks down to XLF 53.06 but could not hold it.

The path forward depends upon VIX 16.87, XLF 53.12 and GTX 3815. All three are bullish creating buoyancy in the stock market. If any 1 of the 3 turn bearish, and the SPX falls below 6706 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If 2 or all 3 turn bearish, it will likely be the start of stocks falling a long ways. Bulls only need to keep all 3 metrics in their camp and they remain on easy street swigging down Fed wine each day and buying any stock with a heartbeat.

The algo number is only 7 measly points above the signal line not exactly a ringing endorsement of the record-setting rally. On Friday, 10/3/25, the SPX prints a new all-time high at 6750.87, wowza, and a new all-time closing high at 6715.79. Stocks are a Runaway as Del sings.

Keybot prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. 

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:17 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:10 PM EST = +45; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 5:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bull party continues. Doctor Copper jumps off the gurney, runs out of the emergency room, and proclaims, "buy, buy, buy!" The banks are a wee bit soggy, hinting that they may become sick and in need of a hospital bed.

Yesterday was a repeat of the other day. In the pre-market hours when VIX is already trading, it spiked higher with S&P futures collapsing over -50 points, but a couple hours later all was fine. Volatility was pushed lower and held down with a Fed jackboot so stocks float higher.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6718.48 and new all-time closing high at 6711.20 on 10/1/25. October, the month when stock market crashes tend to happen, starts off with a euphoric all-time historic high. Traders celebrate with SPX 6.7K hats and throwing confetti. The Fed wine and AI booze is flowing like water. Wall Street analysts say SPX 7K is a lock. The screenprinter, busy preparing SPX 6.8K hats, is happy as a pig in mud, counting on the steady business well into the future.

The stock market direction is currently controlled by volatility, banks and commodities. The bull/bear lines in the sand are VIX 16.87, XLF 53.12 and GTX 3817, respectively. All three are bullish creating buoyancy in the stock market (remember, volatility moves inverse to the stock market).

VIX is at 16.01 as this is typed less than 2 hours before the Thursday cash open, so the bulls are feeling good about the path forward. XLF is flat as a newlywed's souffle at 53.41 in pre-market trading only 29 pennies away from creating market mayhem. GTX begins at 3875.

As long as VIX is below 16.87 and XLF is above 53.12, the bull party continues. If either metric turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX then loses 6656, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If both parameters turn bearish, stocks will be falling like rocks. Roctober. I Wanna Rock.

10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST =
10/1/25; 5:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 3:06 AM EST = +45; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
9/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +59; signal line is +50
9/30/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +49
9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48

Update Added Friday Morning, 10/3/25, at 7:30 AM EST: All of the above holds and watch SPX 6693 for when Keybot the Quant may flip short.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 12 points above the signal line. The robot was active last week after a couple-few weeks of idling along. The quant prints 8 numbers on Friday including the prescheduled number.

Volatility, copper and banks are the three key drivers of the stock market currently. All 3 are in the bull camp creating the never-ending buoyancy in equities. The bears needed 2 of the 3 metrics to turn bearish to take the ball away from the bulls but alas, copper and banks are firmly bullish giving bears no hope.

But Friday some interesting action occurs. If you were watching the VIX 16.97 line in the sand, price kept oscillating above and below in the early morning hours. Each time that the VIX price jogs above and below 16.97, the quant's algo number and signal line converge. Interestingly, the bears had it on a silver platter Friday morning, but could not convert one more jog move that would have placed the quant in position to go short.

But something important occurs. The robot no longer needs 2 of the 3 parameters to turn bearish; it only needs 1 of the 3. The bull/bear lines in the sand are VIX 16.97, CPER 29.07 and XLF 52.98. Bears need one of the three to turn bearish and the quant will be in position to flip short (consider the imminent turn to be at play).

On Friday, the Fed stepped in during the afternoon and crushed volatility, pushing Uncle Vix to the ground and placing a jackboot on his neck to hold him down, so stocks rallied into the weekend. The VIX retreated to 15.29 allowing bulls to puff their chests out all weekend long.

Since volatility is the main focal point, watch the VIX in the early morning hours East Coast time to see what the stock market will do later that day. If VIX remains below 16.97, the bulls rule and bears got nothing. If VIX pops above 16.97 heading higher, the wheels will fall off the stock market.

Just when the VIX appears to be the major determinant of the path ahead, copper and banks may surprise and collapse to create negativity. Copper futures need to fall -1.0% and the XLF needs to drop -1.7% to turn bearish and create market mayhem. Those are not big drops that may occur especially with copper.

If 1 of the 3 metrics above turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 6604 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

There is lots of market craziness occurring these days. The month and Q3 ends on Tuesday and October trading and Q4 begins on Wednesday. Keybot prints 3 prescheduled numbers this week. The jobs circus will be back in town on Friday. Pay close attention to volatility and copper since they will tell the story ahead. The bulls are still Stayin' Alive. Ah, ah, ah, ah, stayin' alive, stayin' alive.

10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/30/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
9/26/25; 7:39 AM EST = +60; signal line is +46
9/26/25; 7:27 AM EST = +46; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 7:14 AM EST = +60; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 6:53 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 5:12 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 4:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43
9/25/25; 2:43 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42
9/25/25; 1:45 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 10:16 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 7:48 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
9/24/25; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 22 points above the signal line. The bulls are walking around with their chests puffed out now that they have pulled Doctor Copper back into their camp. The bulls sent copper higher while keeping volatility low.

The VIX was rising and stalling markets late morning but at about 1 PM EST, the VIX was squashed like a bug. It is surprising the day ended negative for the SPX since higher copper and lower volatility are two bullish metrics.

The bulls expect higher stocks ahead and they are in the drivers seat. The bears have zero hope unless they can push copper lower, push banks lower, and/or pull volatility higher. The quant is tracking CPER 29.07, XLF 52.97 and VIX 16.97 as the key bull/bear lines in the sand. All 3 are currently bullish creating stock market joy.

The bears need 2 of the 3 metrics to flip into their camp to create enough negativity to flip the model short. If CPER falls below 29.07, and/or if XLF falls below 52.97, and/or VIX moves above 16.97, two of the three must occur, and if the SPX drops below 6622 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

You can watch copper and VIX futures overnight and then check XLF in the pre-market tomorrow morning. You will know what will happen before the opening bell rings. Pretty Anita knows how to ring that bell.

9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/24/25; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
9/24/25; 12:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +37
9/24/25; 9:48 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
9/23/25; 3:50 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The robot showed that it is still alive and kicking spitting out two numbers today. It's alive! It's alive! The algo number is  8 points above the signal line so all is groovy for the bulls but the bears were growling today due to elevated volatility.

The VIX popped above 17, above the key bull/bear line in the sand at VIX 16.97, identified by the quant. This pop in vol created the swoon in stocks and then late-day the Fed tackled Uncle Vix pushing him back down to the floor below 16.97 so stocks recover.

Commodities rallied today. Banks remain buoyant. Retail stocks are starting to get wobbly knees. It is a new cage match tomorrow between Doctor Copper and Uncle Vix. Two will enter but only one will exit and the stock market will follow the winner.

The bulls need to keep the VIX below 16.97 while at the same time pumping CPER above 29.02 heading higher. This will unleash a new leg higher for the bull rally.

The bears need to keep copper weak with CPER below 29.02 while at the same time catapulting the VIX above 16.97 that will create automatic market mayhem. Since it failed today, and then the bulls saved the day, the front line is slightly weakened, so the bears will attack again and see if they can bust up through VIX 16.97 for good sending stocks over the cliff.

If VIX overtakes 16.97 running above 17, and the SPX drops below 6646, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. Tomorrow may be an important day.

The SPX prints a new all-time high today, 9/23/25, at 6699.52, only 48 pennies from 6700. The screenprinter already delivered the large cardboard box with 500 "SPX 6.7K" hats ready for distribution. Alas, the S&P 500 fell on its sword after the record high so the all-time closing high remains at 6693.75 on 9/22/25.

Watch copper and volatility. One of them will flinch. You can watch the futures overnight and will know the answer before the opening bell for the cash session. Bulls need higher copper and lower vol. Bears need lower copper and higher vol. Two will go to one. U2 sings "One."

9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/23/25; 3:50 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
9/23/25; 2:56 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35