STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips long at 5656 before munch time today but obviously, the timing is bad since King Donnie is trashing the stock market this evening after he kicks off the Trump Trade and Tariff War. S&P futures are in the tank down a couple hundo points about -3.4%. A 2x leveraged ETF to the long side is going to get bludgeoned by about -7% tomorrow if futures remain extremely negative.

This week is all about the NYA, SPX and banks. NYA 19365, SPX 5715 and XLF 49.67 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. XLF and NYA are creating bullishness while SPX is in the bear camp. Tomorrow all will likely be in the bear camp.

Do not be surprised if the quant flips back to the short side tomorrow and if so, it will be a hefty loss. Fortunately, the actual trading is up about +12% this year. Markets will be a mess overnight so you have to wait for the smoke to clear. 

On the last trade that ran for only 4 trading days, the quant program and actual trading log marginal losses. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is down about -4% while the algo program is up about +4% and actual trading generated by the quant up about +12%. Keybot exited SDS and entered DDM.

It looks like a Black Thursday is on tap. Trump flushed the stock market down the toilet with his protectionism a la the 1930's.

4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/25; 9:00 AM EST =
4/2/25; 11:27 AM EST = -3; signal line is -13; go long 5656; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -3.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +3.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +11.5%)
4/2/25; 10:29 AM EST = -3; signal line is -14 but algorithm remains short
4/2/25; 10:06 AM EST = -17; signal line is -14
4/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -13
4/1/25; 3:59 PM EST = -3; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
4/1/25; 3:48 PM EST = -19; signal line is -12
4/1/25; 1:33 PM EST = -33; signal line is -12
4/1/25; 1:25 PM EST = -19; signal line is -11
4/1/25; 11:04 AM EST = -3; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
4/1/25; 10:59 AM EST = -19; signal line is -12
4/1/25; 9:41 AM EST = -33; signal line is -13
4/1/25; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -12
3/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = -3; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains short
3/31/25; 3:10 PM EST = -3; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains short
3/31/25; 2:42 PM EST = -19; signal line is -14
3/30/25; 7:00 PM EST = -33; signal line is -14
3/28/25; 11:57 AM EST = -33; signal line is -14
3/28/25; 11:37 AM EST = -19; signal line is -15
3/28/25; 10:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -16
3/28/25; 10:11 AM EST = -19; signal line is -17; go short 5643; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -4.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +4.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2025 = +11.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 19 points below the signal line. Lots of drama is ahead this week with Hollywood Donnie's Trump Trade and Tariff War kicking into high gear on Wednesday. 

Bulls need NYA above 19335, SPX above 5662, and/or XLF above 49.76, otherwise, they are toast. The NYA and SPX targets are the lines in the sand for a cyclical bear market going forward. Any 1 of the 3 turning bullish will stop the stock market selling. 2 of the 3 turning bullish will start a comeback rally for stocks. If all 3 turn bullish, it may signal the start of a relief rally with legs, if King Donnie does not throw a wrench (spanner) into the works.

Bears need lower commodities and utes and need to pull GTX below 3728 and/or UTIL below 992. Stocks will take another leg lower and the SPX will test the 5505 prior low if either one fails.

Despite the big Friday selloff and soggy stock market, the utilities are holding up. Traders and investors still think like decades ago putting money into utes and staples believing they will hold up better in a recession. UTIL begins the week at 1011. If 992 fails, the stock market will be in serious trouble. Everything up to now is baby games, but if 992 fails, things are going to get real ugly. If UTIL fails at 986-987, the US stock market will likely crash and headed for a loss of from -20% to -80% (from the February 2025 record top) over the next couple years. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

If the bulls can hold the line with utes maintaining bullishness, the stock market will likely bottom over the next couple weeks and start a substantive relief rally. Thus, you have 5 metrics above controlling the fate of the stock market going forward. Simply watch those metrics which dictate what direction stocks are going.

Keybot the Quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one tomorrow night for EOM and EOQ1 and the other on Friday morning before the opening bell. 

4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/25; 9:00 AM EST =
3/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/25; 7:00 PM EST = -33; signal line is -14
3/28/25; 11:57 AM EST = -33; signal line is -14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short at 10:11 AM EST Friday morning at SPX 5643. It was a bloody day for the stock market, call it a mini-crash, as several metrics failed sending stocks to Hades. The algo number is 19 points below the signal line which is not much in these choppy, whipsaw markets with daily Donnie Trump Trade and Tariff War drama mixed-in with Fed indecision and stubborn inflation.

The critical SPX 5662 and NYA 19335 bull/bear lines in the sand, that signal a cyclical bear market for the US stock market, failed yesterday morning and the rout was on. This failure points to many weeks and months of stock market sogginess ahead. Bulls desperately need to push the indexes back above the lines in the sand, otherwise, they are toast and the selling will only increase from here.

The banks also failed yesterday creating market mayhem. XLF drops below its key 49.76 line in the sand so the pain and misery deepened. 

The bears are in control but need to maintain weakness in SPX, NYA and XLF while at the same time turning commodities, copper and utilities bearish. All three are joyful so it is a tough ask. Watch the UTIL 992 level and then 986-987. The stock market will go into a crash profile at UTIL 992 and will crash if UTIL loses 986-987. It will be fun.

The bulls need to focus all their might on NYA 19335. Price begins Monday morning at 19270. If the NYA pops above 1933, it tells you that the stock market will stabilize and the selling will stop. A rally may not begin but it will at least stop the downside bleeding. If NYA remains below 19335 and trending lower, and you are a bull holding on to long positions, you will be beaten further into submission, and the blood will continue to flow on Wall and Broad.

The first quarter ends on Monday so there was some reverse window dressing in the market. For the quarterly statements, some of the investment houses may not want to show losing stocks like semiconductors in the funds, so they sell them off a la Friday, and on the statement they will be gone making the investor feel okay, even though the fund lost money on that stock and ditched it. This is called the Wall Street casino game. Remember it as you look at your quarterly statement and realize these folks are a bunch of crooks.

On the last trade that ran for a couple weeks, the algo program is a marginal loss and the actual trading loses a percent. For the year thus far with Q1 in the bag on Monday, the benchmark S&P 500 is down -4.1%. The Wall Street analysts that promised SPX 7K and more this year are in full retreat with 5 hundo and more points chopped from their old estimates for their new estimates. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +4.1% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +11.9%. The quant program is outperforming the benchmark SPX index by 8 percentage-points and the actual trading is beating the benchmark by 16 percentage-points. There is still a lot of year remaining. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

NYA 19335, SPX 5662 and XLF 49.76 will tell you everything you need to know on Monday.

3/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/25; 7:00 PM EST =  
3/28/25; 11:57 AM EST = -33; signal line is -14
3/28/25; 11:37 AM EST = -19; signal line is -15
3/28/25; 10:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -16
3/28/25; 10:11 AM EST = -19; signal line is -17; go short 5643; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -4.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +4.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2025 = +11.9%)
3/28/25; 10:10 AM EST = -3; signal line is -18
3/28/25; 10:00 AM EST = +11; signal line is -20
3/28/25; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is -22
3/27/25; 12:00 PM EST = -5; signal line is -25
3/27/25; 10:06 AM EST = +11; signal line is -26
3/25/25; 3:48 PM EST = -5; signal line is -29
3/25/25; 3:26 PM EST = -21; signal line is -31
3/25/25; 1:03 PM EST = -5; signal line is -33
3/25/25; 10:11 AM EST = -21; signal line is -34
3/25/25; 10:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is -35
3/25/25; 9:38 AM EST = -2; signal line is -37
3/24/25; 9:44 AM EST = +14; signal line is -39
3/24/25; 9:36 AM EST = -2; signal line is -42
3/23/25; 7:00 PM EST = -18; signal line is -44
3/21/25; 3:59 PM EST = -18; signal line is -46
3/20/25; 1:29 PM EST = -32; signal line is -47
3/20/25; 10:01 AM EST = -18; signal line is -48
3/20/25; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -49
3/19/25; 2:48 PM EST = -18; signal line is -50
3/18/25; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -51
3/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is -52
3/17/25; 1:39 PM EST = -18; signal line is -53
3/17/25; 1:35 PM EST = -32; signal line is -53; go long 5667; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -3.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +6.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +4.5%)(Actual results this trade = +13.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +13.2%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 26 points above the signal line. The bulls are Stayin' Alive. The music's loud and the women warm. The quant is following several moving parts but simplifying; utes, banks and the SPX index control stock market direction currently.

The robot is tracking UTIL 1003.65, XLF 50.00 and SPX 5666. The market-makers pushed the SPX up over 5666 in the final minute of trading on Friday. Do you think 5666 is important? Yes, it is, because it dictates the line between cyclical bull and cyclical bear markets.

Thus, the bulls are in full control of the stock market currently but they need the banks to turn bullish right away to keep the party going. Bulls need XLF above 50.00 or the upside party will fade. If XLF regains 50 heading higher, the focus would be VIX 16.86. If the VIX drops below 16.86, stocks will catapult higher to the moon.

The bears need a weaker SPX and utilities. Bears need the SPX to drop below 5666 pronto to prove that they still got game and are regrouping planning another attack. Bears need UTIL below 1004 to create market sogginess. Even with these two parameters turning bearish it will likely not be enough to get the quant to flip short. In addition to the SPX and utes, the bears will likely need NYA below 19300 or GTX below 3721. If 3 of the 4 flip metrics flip bearish, the quant will likely flip back to the short side.

Keybot the Quant prints a pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. There are 6 trading days remaining in Q1. With all the moving parts and parameters sitting on bull/bear lines in the sand, the caution flag is out. Focus on the SPX, utilities and banks to determine market direction on Monday.

3/30/25; 7:00 PM EST =  
3/28/25; 10:00 AM EST =
3/23/25; 7:00 PM EST = -18; signal line is -44
3/21/25; 3:59 PM EST = -18; signal line is -46
3/20/25; 1:29 PM EST = -32; signal line is -47
3/20/25; 10:01 AM EST = -18; signal line is -48
3/20/25; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -49
3/19/25; 2:48 PM EST = -18; signal line is -50

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the markets chop along before and after the Fed meeting today.  Stagflation is the word of the day; the potential for inflation and high unemployment a la the 1970's. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. They have their "Back Against the Wall" as Son Volt sings. No time to be unwound, with darkness at your doorstep, keep your feet on the ground.

The bulls need stronger banks and lower volatility to send stocks to the moon. Bulls need XLF above 50.02, it knocked on the door today, and/or VIX below 16.89 now with a 19 handle. If both turn bullish, stocks will be catapulting higher.

Bears need to keep banks weak and volatility high while pushing SPX below 5666, NYA below 19295 and/or GTX below 3719. Bears likely need 2 of the 3 parameters to turn bearish to flip the quant to the short side.

The above parameters tell you how the broad stock market will move. In addition, watch utilities tomorrow and Friday. UTIL 1003.65, call it 1004, is a key bull/bear line in the sand for all of next week. Therefore, the closing price on Friday is important. UTIL is at 1014 now. If UTIL remains above 1004 and the week ends, that tells you that the stock market will be strong at the start next week. If UTIL falls below 1004 over the next two days and remains below to end the week, that tells you that stocks will be soggy to begin next week. 

The bulls are in charge and cruising with the algo number 32 points above the signal line. Over the coming days, bulls must push VIX below 16.89. If not, any rally that had occurred will reverse and fall apart.

3/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/19/25; 2:48 PM EST = -18; signal line is -50
3/18/25; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -51
3/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is -52
3/17/25; 1:39 PM EST = -18; signal line is -53

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side today at SPX 5667 following through after the Friday stutter steps. Commodities, GTX 3719, and NYA 19295 and SPX 5666 all jump into the bull camp punching the bears in the face. The bulls are now in charge of the stock market with the algo number 35 points above the signal line.

It is a big stick-save by the bulls to push NYA above 19295 and SPX above 5666. The bears need to reverse these gains if they want the ball back. Today's move gives street cred to the relief rally but VIX 16.89 is the major test.

If stocks continue rallying, and the VIX drops below 16.89, equities will catapult to the moon as bulls throw confetti. If stocks rally, however, and the VIX drops but cannot move below 16.89, the relief rally means nothing, and it will likely roll over and die going forward. The VIX 16.89 bull/bear line in the sand is a big deal so watch it and the other metrics this week.

Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High on hump day. Stocks rally 80% of the time on the Tuesday and Wednesday into the Fed meetings so traders are front-running the move starting last Friday. Powell holds the power. Patty Smith and others want the People to Have the Power. 

Bulls ride to glory with lower volatility while bears can wrestle back control of the stock market with weaker commodities, and lower NYA and SPX indexes.

Keybot the Quant prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning before the opening bell.

On the last trade that ran about 3 weeks, the quant program gains about +6% and the actual trading gains about +14%. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Yinz can take the rest of the year off. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is down almost -4% puking its guts out from the top less than a month ago. The quant program is up about +5% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +13% on the year outperforming the benchmark by 17 percentage-points. No one can complain about that. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's.

3/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/18/25; 9:00 AM EST =
3/17/25; 1:39 PM EST = -18; signal line is -53
3/17/25; 1:35 PM EST = -32; signal line is -53; go long 5667; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -3.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +6.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +4.5%)(Actual results this trade = +13.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +13.2%)
3/17/25; 9:37 AM EST = -32; signal line is -53 but algorithm remains short
3/17/25; 9:36 AM EST = -46; signal line is -53 but algorithm remains short
3/16/25; 7:00 PM EST = -60; signal line is -52
3/14/25; 3:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -52
3/14/25; 3:11 PM EST = -46; signal line is -51
3/14/25; 2:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -50
3/14/25; 2:06 PM EST = -46; signal line is -49 but algorithm remains short
3/14/25; 1:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -49
3/14/25; 1:08 PM EST = -46; signal line is -49 but algorithm remains short
3/14/25; 10:00 AM EST = -60; signal line is -48
3/13/25; 2:38 PM EST = -60; signal line is -48
3/13/25; 2:21 PM EST = -76; signal line is -47
3/13/25; 12:52 PM EST = -60; signal line is -45
3/13/25; 10:28 AM EST = -46; signal line is -42
3/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = -46; signal line is -41
3/12/25; 12:12 PM EST = -46; signal line is -39
3/12/25; 11:26 AM EST = -62; signal line is -38
3/12/25; 11:10 AM EST = -76; signal line is -36
3/12/25; 11:00 AM EST = -62; signal line is -32
3/12/25; 10:23 AM EST = -46; signal line is -30
3/12/25; 10:03 AM EST = -60; signal line is -27
3/12/25; 9:37 AM EST = -46; signal line is -24
3/11/25; 10:33 AM EST = -60; signal line is -21
3/11/25; 9:36 AM EST = -46; signal line is -17
3/10/25; 1:36 PM EST = -60; signal line is -14
3/10/25; 10:38 AM EST = -46; signal line is -11
3/10/25; 9:57 AM EST = -32; signal line is -8
3/10/25; 9:36 AM EST = -18; signal line is -6
3/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = -32; signal line is -5
3/7/25; 11:56 AM EST = -32; signal line is -3
3/7/25; 11:06 AM EST = -48; signal line is -1
3/7/25; 10:57 AM EST = -34; signal line is +2
3/7/25; 10:23 AM EST = -18; signal line is +4
3/7/25; 9:46 AM EST = -34; signal line is +6
3/7/25; 9:00 AM EST = -48; signal line is +8
3/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = -48; signal line is +11
3/5/25; 12:03 PM EST = -32; signal line is +12
3/5/25; 11:31 AM EST = -48; signal line is +14
3/4/25; 9:48 AM EST = -32; signal line is +17
3/3/25; 1:16 PM EST = -16; signal line is +19
3/3/25; 10:58 AM EST = -2; signal line is +19
3/3/25; 10:42 AM EST = -16; signal line is +20
3/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -2; signal line is +20
2/25/25; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is +21
2/24/25; 10:02 AM EST = +0; signal line is +21
2/23/25; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +22
2/21/25; 1:02 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21; go short 6050; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +2.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +2.3%; Actual results for 2025 = -0.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo number is only 8 points below the signal line and the quant keeps threatening to go long. It is on a silver platter for the bulls if they want it tomorrow.

If GTX runs above 3717.70, and it is only a buck away at 3716.63, and the SPX runs above 5645, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That is only about +6 points on the S&P futures so it is an easy bar to step over. Bears need to keep commodities weak or they will succumb to a relief rally for stocks.

The major focus is NYA 19260 and SPX 5663. The US stock market is in serious trouble right now and will become far worse if these indexes remain below their critical values that identify a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear market. The cyclical bear market in US equities has started so the bulls must quicky reverse these two metrics, otherwise, the bulls will ride the Highway to Hell.

Stocks may idle early in the week because on Wednesday, Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High to tell traders how to trade. Keybot the Quant prints a pre-scheduled number on Tuesday morning.

The stock market is set-up for the bulls to take over. Can they? Bears need weaker copper and utilities to turn the stock market selling into a crash.

3/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/18/25; 9:00 AM EST =
3/16/25; 7:00 PM EST = -60; signal line is -52
3/14/25; 3:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -52

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. There was a technical glitch in the previous post that was deleted. A digit was slipped by a person that will remain nameless. The punishment will be severe. 50 lashes with a wet noodle.

The quant remains short after a crazy week but teasing a move ahead. The robot prints 7 numbers on Friday including the pre-scheduled number. The stock market is a coin-flip. Traders are waiting for a relief rally and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy on Friday with a big move off the bottom.

The quant is champing at the bit, in and out, to go long but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move. It can really go any way on Monday.

If GTX moves above 3717.70, and the SPX moves above 5663, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Other parameters that guarantee a bull path forward and end to the carnage are NYA 19260 and SPX 5663. If either of these two turn bullish, it is a loud and clear signal that the bulls have started a relief rally that has legs.

If NYA remains below 19260, and SPX below 5663, there will be Hell to pay going forward.

The glitch in the matrix is fixed. The algorithm remains short but is hinting that a turnaround to the bull side may be ahead. Bulls need stronger commodities and lower volatility. Now that things are on track again, some Ice Queen will be good; Sue plays Queen Bee. What a groove.

3/16/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/14/25; 3:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -52
3/14/25; 3:11 PM EST = -46; signal line is -51
3/14/25; 2:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -50
3/14/25; 2:06 PM EST = -46; signal line is -49 but algorithm remains short
3/14/25; 1:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -49
3/14/25; 1:08 PM EST = -46; signal line is -49 but algorithm remains short
3/14/25; 10:00 AM EST = -60; signal line is -48
3/13/25; 2:38 PM EST = -60; signal line is -48
3/13/25; 2:21 PM EST = -76; signal line is -47
3/13/25; 12:52 PM EST = -60; signal line is -45
3/13/25; 10:28 AM EST = -46; signal line is -42
3/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = -46; signal line is -41
3/12/25; 12:12 PM EST = -46; signal line is -39
3/12/25; 11:26 AM EST = -62; signal line is -38
3/12/25; 11:10 AM EST = -76; signal line is -36
3/12/25; 11:00 AM EST = -62; signal line is -32
3/12/25; 10:23 AM EST = -46; signal line is -30
3/12/25; 10:03 AM EST = -60; signal line is -27
3/12/25; 9:37 AM EST = -46; signal line is -24
3/11/25; 10:33 AM EST = -60; signal line is -21
3/11/25; 9:36 AM EST = -46; signal line is -17
3/10/25; 1:36 PM EST = -60; signal line is -14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market collapses. The bears are in full control with the algo number 46 points below the signal line. SPX 5664 and NYA 19260 both fail ushering in market mayhem and the blood is flowing on Wall and Broad.

Interestingly, utilities did not fail. UTIL is at 1002 with the line in the sand at 986. Bears need weaker utes and copper to create a significant crash. 

If SPX or NYA recover above the numbers listed above, the all-clear will start to sound for a relief rally but if these two metrics remain bearish, stocks still have a long ways to drop. If both remain negative and UTIL loses 986, there is no hope if you are long, you will lose a lot of money. Bulls also need GTX above 3717 which would help stabilize the stock market and stop the downdraft.

Watch UTIL 986 because if it fails, it will be the Last Kiss for the stock market before it goes off the cliff.

3/16/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/14/25; 10:00 AM EST =
3/10/25; 1:36 PM EST = -60; signal line is -14
3/10/25; 10:38 AM EST = -46; signal line is -11
3/10/25; 9:57 AM EST = -32; signal line is -8
3/10/25; 9:36 AM EST = -18; signal line is -6
3/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = -32; signal line is -5

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears are cruising along with the algo number 27 points below the signal line. There are several moving parts in the stock market. Utilities, the NYA index, the SPX index, commodities, banks and volatility are controlling stock market direction currently.

Bears need UTIL below 983 that will bring about carnage in the stock market and place equities into a crash profile. If NYA loses 19225 and the SPX loses 5673, the stock market will crash.

Bulls need the above three metrics to remain bullish. At the same time, bulls need GTX above 3717.84, XLF above 50.60, and VIX below 16.87. Any of these three metrics turning bullish tells you that the relief rally is at hand.

Commodities are key with the GTX only 4 bucks away from the bull camp. Utes are key with UTIL only 8 points from stock market disaster. 

To whittle things down for something simple to watch, pay attention to commodities and utes. It is a cage match where two enter but only one exits. Bulls need GTX above 3718 to signal that the relief rally is starting. Bears need UTIL below 983 to usher in stock market mayhem. Choose your poison. Poison in the Well.

Keybot the Quant prints one pre-scheduled number this week after the Friday morning open. Clocks changed in the United States a couple hours ago for Daylight Saving Time. Time in a Bottle. Jim Croce, a gifted songwriter, got screwed in life. 

3/16/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/14/25; 10:00 AM EST =
3/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = -32; signal line is -5
3/7/25; 11:56 AM EST = -32; signal line is -3
3/7/25; 11:06 AM EST = -48; signal line is -1
3/7/25; 10:57 AM EST = -34; signal line is +2
3/7/25; 10:23 AM EST = -18; signal line is +4
3/7/25; 9:46 AM EST = -34; signal line is +6
3/7/25; 9:00 AM EST = -48; signal line is +8
3/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = -48; signal line is +11

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market falls apart. UTIL 983 is key and upon its failure this morning, the stock market is in a crash profile currently. The bears are cruising with the algo number 59 huge points below the signal line. Traders are selling first and asking questions later.

Bulls need UTIL 983 pronto, otherwise, they will be slaughtered going forward. Bears need NYA below 19225 and/or SPX below 5671 to likely usher in a major crash. This is fun.

Keybot prints the pre-scheduled number tomorrow before the opening bell but there is still a lot of trading remaining in today's session. Stocks are sliding down the rabbit hole. Slide.

3/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
3/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = -48; signal line is +11
3/5/25; 12:03 PM EST = -32; signal line is +12
3/5/25; 11:31 AM EST = -48; signal line is +14
3/4/25; 9:48 AM EST = -32; signal line is +17
3/3/25; 1:16 PM EST = -16; signal line is +19

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market takes the pipe today. It's Beautiful. The stock market was stabbed in the back today by commodities. Volatility ran higher running over the bulls chance of a comeback rally. The bears are in charge with the algo number 35 points below the signal line.

Commodities are in the bear camp but the bulls will try to claw them back tomorrow. Bulls need GTX above 3717 to stop the stock market selling. Bulls need VIX below 16.82 to regain control of the stock market but price is up at 22.78.

Thus, the bears look pretty good but they need to keep pressing if they want to create carnage. The utility trap-door remains closed. Bears need UTIL below 983 to open the trap-door and hang the market. Stocks will crash worse than today and remain sick a long time. Bears need XLF below 50.70 about a -2% drop in banks. This will create market mayhem.

Thus, GTX 3717 is the current rudder for the stock market ship, with XLF 50.70 also in play. If banks and utes are trading positively, the stock market draw down will likely not be a biggie. If banks and utilities join the bear camp, Katy bar the door, the blood will flow on Wall and Broad, with big carnage occurring in the indexes.

Commodities, banks, utilities and volatility are all that matter currently.

3/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
3/3/25; 1:16 PM EST = -16; signal line is +19
3/3/25; 10:58 AM EST = -2; signal line is +19
3/3/25; 10:42 AM EST = -16; signal line is +20
3/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -2; signal line is +20

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the sloppy market action continues. The bears are in charge with the algo number 22 points below the signal line. The bears are comfortable but things can change fast.

Bears have succeeded after they slapped the retail stocks and chips in the face. Bears also create higher volatility so stocks sink.

Bulls are trying to keep commodities, copper and banks in the bull camp because if any of them fail, equities will be sliding down the rabbit hole.

Bears need GTX below 3717 with price beginning the week at 3726. If commodities are weak, the stock market is in bigtime trouble. This behavior would also surface in copper and Keybot is tracking CPER 27.63 as a line in the sand. XLF 50.55 is also a key bull/bear line in the sand. Bears will create carnage if UTIL loses 981. Any one of these four metrics turning bearish will guarantee more stock market pain to the downside ahead.

Bulls need lower volatility plain and simple. Bulls need VIX below 16.59 if they want to stop the selling and try and stabilize the stock market. There is no hope if you are bullish and long stocks if the VIX remains above 16.59, and you will feel more pain the higher the VIX moves.

To whittle it down to something simple, bears will create another leg lower for the stock market if GTX loses 3717 (weaker commodities) but bulls can stall the selling and try to stabilize stocks if VIX moves below 16.59 (lower volatility). It is a cage match. Commodities and volatility enter but only one will exit and be victorious and the stock market will move in that direction.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning. 

3/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
3/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -2; signal line is +20
2/25/25; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is +21
2/24/25; 10:02 AM EST = +0; signal line is +21
2/23/25; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +22

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short going into the new week of trading. The bears are in control of stock market direction with the algo number 6 points below the signal line but that is nothing to write home about.

Bears need weaker chips to prove that they got game to the downside. If not, all it is, is talk. Bears need SOX below 5119. If that happens the stock market should fall apart going forward.

Bulls need to stop the selling with lower volatility and higher utilities. These two are strange bedfellows but hey, maybe they were looking for something strange. Bulls need VIX below the 16.61 palindrome pronto. A lower VIX will immediately stop the selling in the stock market. If VIX turns bullish and the SPX catapults higher on some kind of good news, Keybot the Quant may flip back to the long side above SPX 6115. It is a long-shot but they happen time to time.

Bulls need UTIL above 1034 to prove that stocks have game to the upside. This is a big deal. Lean in and listen closely, as if you heard someone mention EF Hutton's name, because for the next month, the important UTIL numbers are all above 1036. UTIL begins the week at 1023. If UTIL moves above 1034, the bulls are going to retake control of the stock market and run higher.

However, it may be short-lived because by Friday at 4 PM EST, at the end of the week, that number increases to 1067. Thus, even if UTIL can get above 1034 to help the bulls this week, it may not last long since 1067 for the week of 3/3/25 is a tall order. If UTIL remains below 1034 this week and for the next month, the stock market will remain soggy and weak.

If UTIL remains above 977, and below 1034, the stock market pullback will be modest, only the -3% to -5% variety that we almost have already. If UTIL drops from 1022 down through 1000 and then through 977, there is no hope for the stock market. There will only be carnage ahead with a -10% correction or -20% bear market or worse. Keep watching utilities.

It is really a fight between chips and vol if you want to look at something simple that will tell you the direction of the stock market for Monday. Bears win with SOX below 5119; stocks will drop like rocks. Bulls win with VIX below 16.61; stocks will stabilize and dip-buyers will begin sending equities higher.

If SOX remains above 5119, and VIX remains above 16.61, status quo, the stock market will chop along sideways. It will not tip its hand until SOX or VIX makes a decision. One of them will flinch.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning at 10 AM EST. Friday is EOM the last day of trading for February. March trading begins next Monday. The Boys Are Back in Town. If that chick don't wanna know, forget her.

3/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/25/25; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/25; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +22
2/21/25; 1:02 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21; go short 6050; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +2.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +2.3%; Actual results for 2025 = -0.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 6050 after all the drama this month. Volatility finally popped. Retail stocks collapse. The chips are down, in more ways than one, but SOX remains a hair above disaster at 5119.

Bears will create carnage into the closing bell if SOX loses 5119.

Bulls need UTIL above 1031-1033. If utes roll over and drop lower, and trend lower early next week, that tells you there will be Hell to pay going forward.

On the last trade, that ran for over a month, the quant program and actual trading each gain a couple percent. For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about +3%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm is down a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the algo is flat on the year thus far. Keybot exited IVV and entered SDS now back into the 2x leveraged ETF's since the whipsaw timer has expired.

2/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
2/21/25; 1:02 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21; go short 6050; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +2.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +2.3%; Actual results for 2025 = -0.4%)
2/21/25; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21
2/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21
2/18/25; 10:13 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21
2/18/25; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +21
2/16/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +20
2/14/25; 10:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/13/25; 10:02 AM EST = +46; signal line is +19
2/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = +14; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/7/25; 10:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
2/7/25; 9:49 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
2/7/25; 9:37 AM EST = +30; signal line is +20
2/7/25; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +20
2/7/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/5/25; 10:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/5/25; 10:14 AM EST = +16; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/5/25; 9:57 AM EST = +0; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/5/25; 9:54 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
2/5/25; 9:45 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21
2/5/25; 9:39 AM EST = +14; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 2:44 PM EST = +0; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 2:11 PM EST = +16; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 1:31 PM EST = +0; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 12:46 PM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 12:30 PM EST = +0; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 11:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
2/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
2/3/25; 3:06 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
2/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:52 PM EST = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:43 PM EST = +16; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:18 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:11 PM EST = +16; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 11:40 AM EST = +30; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 11:17 AM EST = +46; signal line is +31
1/29/25; 2:46 PM EST = +30; signal line is +28
1/29/25; 12:45 PM EST = +16; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
1/29/25; 12:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +25
1/29/25; 11:21 AM EST = +16; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
1/29/25; 10:02 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22
1/29/25; 9:47 AM EST = +16; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
1/28/25; 12:09 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21
1/28/25; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
1/27/25; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
1/27/25; 3:06 AM EST = +32; signal line is +19
1/26/25; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +19
1/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +19
1/23/25; 10:54 AM EST = +46; signal line is +18
1/22/25; 9:38 AM EST = +30; signal line is +17
1/21/25; 3:54 PM EST = +46; signal line is +16
1/21/25; 3:31 PM EST = +62; signal line is +15
1/21/25; 2:12 PM EST = +46; signal line is +15
1/21/25; 1:50 PM EST = +30; signal line is +14
1/21/25; 1:25 PM EST = +46; signal line is +14
1/21/25; 1:09 PM EST = +62; signal line is +12
1/21/25; 12:30 PM EST = +46; signal line is +10
1/19/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +7
1/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +6
1/15/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +5; go long 5920; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -4.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2025 = -2.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the wild stock market action continues. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6147.43 and new all-time closing high at 6144.15. The bears could have taken control several times over the last couple weeks but instead choose to be punched in the face by the bulls. The bulls control the stock market with the algo number 9 points above the signal line.

The SPX is not moving much, just enough to eek out record highs, and that is because the bulls cannot push retail stocks or utes higher. Conversely, the bears cannot gain downside traction because chips remain high, and receive an orgy boost this week, and volatility remains low. Thus, we have a standoff. One of those four parameters will flinch and tell you which way the stock market is headed.

Bulls need XRT above 79.49 and/or UTIL above 1031-1033. A continued stock market rally is guaranteed if either parameter turns bullish and if both turn bullish, stocks will explode higher.

Bears need SOX below 5133. 'Good luck wit dat' as they say in the Bronx. Bears need VIX above 16.59. Bears need one of these two metrics to turn bearish to place the robot in position to go short. If one of the two turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6112, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Thus, the imminent turn notation will remain in the title line since the stock market is erratic and unstable and a coin-flip.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number Friday morning. You can whittle the action down to retail stocks versus volatility. XRT and VIX enter the cage match. Two have entered but only one will exit. Bulls win big with XRT above 79.49. Bears win big and will put the model in position to go short if VIX pops above 16.59. One of them will shine and the other will be shinola. Soulshine by Warren playing his Martin, handmade in Pennsylvania.

2/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
2/21/25; 10:00 AM EST =
2/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21
2/18/25; 10:13 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21
2/18/25; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +21
2/16/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +20

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the year of choppy whipsaw slop and daily Powell, Donnie and AI drama continues. The bears have had their opportunities but after the last couple weeks of battle, the bulls have the ball firmly in hand and running downfield with the algo number 10 points above the signal line.

The caution and imminent turn notations must remain in play since the stock market is extremely erratic and unstable. The bulls simply need to cruise along with status quo while pushing retail stocks higher. Consumer spending is the linchpin holding the stock market together so it makes sense that the robot is tracking this metric, retail stocks, as the top influence on direction.

Bulls need XRT above 79.52 and there will be nothing but blue skies and rainbows for stocks going forward. XRT begins trading Tuesday morning at 79.36 in the bear camp so it is a game of pennies.

Bears have had chances to flip the model short but keep falling short. Bears played around too long and now the bulls are back to slapping them silly again. Bears need to keep retail stocks in their camp since that will create a cancer on the stock market. At the same time, bears need lower chips and higher volatility.

Bears need SOX below 5114, now at 5161, only a few bucks away, and/or VIX above 16.80, now at 15.42, only a stick or so away. VIX is the only thing trading currently as Americans enjoy a day off.

If the bears push either SOX or VIX into the bear camp, either one would do, and the SPX falls below 6108 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Retail stocks, chips and volatility are all that matter right now for the US stock market direction. You do not need to watch anything else. Watch XRT 79.52, SOX 5114, VIX 16.80, and SPX 6108. Easy-peasy. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on hump day morning and the other on Friday morning.

2/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
2/21/25; 10:00 AM EST =
2/19/25; 9:00 AM EST =
2/16/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +20
2/14/25; 10:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/13/25; 10:02 AM EST = +46; signal line is +19
2/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = +14; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the robot fights to go short but the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move. The quant wants to go short with the algo number 5 points below the signal line. Things are set-up like two prior times. If the SPX drops below 6020, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The S&P 500 begins at 6026 so watch the S&P futures overnight into Monday to see if -6 is on the tape.

The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. Bears need VIX above 16.87 to create stock market pain. Watch this overnight; the VIX trades at 3 AM EST. It's 3 AM. Bears need UTIL below 971 which opens a trap-door to prolonged stock market misery and carnage.

Bulls need to stop any negativity in the futures with all their might and at the same time keep VIX below 16.87, otherwise, they will be beaten severely. If bulls can keep volatility low, and then push chips, retail stocks and utilities higher, the sky will be the limit for the stock market. Bulls will be rallying the stock market if they push SOX above 5113.

Bears need SPX 6020 and lower to finally get the ball back. Higher volatility and weaker utilities and commodities will create more trouble. Bulls need lower volatility, and stronger chips, retail stocks and utes.

Keybot the Quant does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. It should be an interesting week ahead. Another week in Paradise.

2/16/25; 7:00 PM EST =
2/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = +14; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/7/25; 10:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
2/7/25; 9:49 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
2/7/25; 9:37 AM EST = +30; signal line is +20
2/7/25; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +20
2/7/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/5/25; 10:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/5/25; 10:14 AM EST = +16; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/5/25; 9:57 AM EST = +0; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/5/25; 9:54 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
2/5/25; 9:45 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21
2/5/25; 9:39 AM EST = +14; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 2:44 PM EST = +0; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the choppy whipsaw slop continues. The robot is champing at the bit to go short but the internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move. It is ridiculous and very odd behavior but what else is new in these markets?

The bears want to be in charge with the algo number 23 points below the signal line but the bulls will not give up the ball. Bears need the SPX to dop below 5991, and Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. It is that simple. SPX starts at 6038 so bears need to see a 47-point drop to take control. Just like a couple days ago, bears do not want a gap-down open since that will delay the move to the short side or, like the other day, end up without the model flipping short. Bears need a nice slow steady move lower in the SPX and for it to drift down to 5991 and fail.

The bulls rally today despite the quant signaling sogginess. Stocks rallied because XRT moved above the key 79.79 bull/bear line in the sand but by the close it fell back below creating market negativity. The VIX line in the sand is 16.85 and price was teasing this level all day long today finishing above at 17.21 creating stock market negativity.

The stock market selling will slow and equities will start to stabilize if XRT moves above 79.79 and/or VIX falls below 16.85. The quant likely needs to see both parameters flip bullish to prove that the stock market selling is over and stocks will rally higher again.

The stock market will be in trouble if the two metrics remain bearish, and if the SPX falls below 5991, equities will fall like rocks as the quant likely flips short. Bulls need stronger retail stocks and lower volatility while bears need SPX 5991. Tiger In Your Tank.

2/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
2/7/25; 10:00 AM EST =
2/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
2/4/25; 2:44 PM EST = +0; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 2:11 PM EST = +16; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 1:31 PM EST = +0; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 12:46 PM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 12:30 PM EST = +0; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 11:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
2/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
2/3/25; 3:06 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
2/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:52 PM EST = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market turmoil caused by Pope Powell and King Trump continues. The robot is champing at the bit to go short but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move. The algo number is only 3 measly points below the signal line so the bull/bear battle will spill over into next week.

The quant was spitting out numbers on hump day and Friday faster than Cousin Ralphie spitting watermelon seeds at a summer picnic. The stock market is a lot of whipsaw slop this year with one month already in the bag.

Keybot is tracking VIX as the most important market parameter currently. Chips are also key and ditto copper. There are other moving parts but these three should tell the story early next week.

Bulls need SOX above 5140 pronto to stop the stock market selling and stabilize the situation. Tech stocks and chips are on the mat coughing up blood and trying to get up.

Bears simply need the SPX to drop below 6031, only 10 points below the current 6041 price, and Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. If bearish, you do not want a gap down move at the open since this will likely delay when/if the model flips short. A slow, steady, downward move in the stock market is what bears need to get the quant to flip short. Check S&P futures overnight Sunday into Monday to see if a negative  -10 is on the board. That would tell you that the bears are coming to play.

Bears need VIX above 16.85 and you will see an immediate deterioration in the stock market. Since volatility was playing games on Friday moving above and below this key level, if it spikes above, she is likely going to launch higher creating trouble. Bears need CPER below 26.55 so watch copper futures to see if they are weak.

Keep watching utilities. UTIL 976 is a trap-door for the stock market with price at 1000. If the stock market begins selling off in earnest, and UTIL does not fall below 976, that tells you the pullback is run of the mill and stocks should recover going forward. If stocks sell off and the trap-door at 976 gives way, Katy bar the door, the stock market will be going down hard and a long ways and for an extended period (think -10%, -20%, or -30% or more for stocks).

Lots of fun is ahead. Bears need SPX below 6031 to flip Keybot the Quant short and if VIX moves above 16.85, and then CPER below 26.55, stocks will be tumbling lower bigtime. If UTIL 976 gives way, you should lose all hope in the stock market and realize a significant crash is likely. Bears will be smiling if this occurs. Make Me Smile. Steve passed last year.

Bulls need to prevent SPX 6031 with all their might an at the same time push SOX above 5140, otherwise, they are in a heap of trouble. Uriah Heep. Tomorrow is Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, USA.

2/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/31/25; 3:52 PM EST = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:43 PM EST = +16; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:18 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:11 PM EST = +16; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 11:40 AM EST = +30; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 11:17 AM EST = +46; signal line is +31
1/29/25; 2:46 PM EST = +30; signal line is +28
1/29/25; 12:45 PM EST = +16; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
1/29/25; 12:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +25
1/29/25; 11:21 AM EST = +16; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
1/29/25; 10:02 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22
1/29/25; 9:47 AM EST = +16; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
1/28/25; 12:09 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21
1/28/25; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
1/27/25; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bears flex their muscles. The bears came to play today but they did not eat their Wheaties and lost their punch as the day played out. The VIX spiked overnight with S&P futures collapsing and then at the opening bell, semiconductors committed hari-kari. That was the weakness in the stock market; volatility and chips.

The quant is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 4 points below the signal line but all of the internal parameters did not latch to permit the move. This was surprising considering the bed-sh*tting that occurred overnight. If the SPX drops below 5963, the robot will likely flip short. This is about 50 points below the current price at 6012.

The bears can rule the roost and take over the stock market with force if they push UTIL below 967.90, CPER below 26.54, and/or XRT below 79.70. Bears need weaker utilities, copper, and retail stocks.

UTIL came down to 968 and bounced. Wow. The UTIL 967 is a trap-door for the stock market and it would have mini-crashed if the 967 failed. This is the second time in a couple weeks that UTIL has tested this important metric and bounced. The bull have staved off disaster twice. Can they do it a third time if price comes back down again? If UTIL 967 fails, the SPX will likely drop 20 to 40 points within an hour after the trap-door opens and the stock market will remain in an intermediate term crash profile.

Copper was sneaky as well. CPER came down to 26.59 only a nickel away from failure and creating stock market pain, but alas, the bulls pumped Dr Copper with morphine and told him to get back on the front lines and fight! 

Those are the metrics at play stripping the markets down to their mechanical essence. Evanescence. Bulls need VIX below 16.88 and/or SOX above 5120 to signal the all-clear for the stock market to float higher again. Either metric turning bullish will halt the move lower in stocks. There will be trouble ahead if both remain bearish.

Bears likely need SPX below 5963 to flip the quant short (although it may occur faster if the following parameters fail); CPER below 26.54, and/or XRT below 79.70, and/or UTIL below 967.90. If UTIIL fails below 967, the stock market will likely crash. It's fun. Do you think it'd be all right, if I crashed here tonight? Hey Jealousy. 

2/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/28/25; 10:00 AM EST =
1/27/25; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
1/27/25; 3:06 AM EST = +32; signal line is +19
1/26/25; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +19

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Is everyone having fun? The Fed decision is on tap in the week ahead so the drama will continue. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 27 points above the signal line. Retail stocks jump into the bull camp on Friday creating more lift in the stock market before a subtle pullback. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6128.18 on Friday, 1/24/25.

Bulls need to maintain strength in retail stocks to prove that the rich that own stocks, that were made filthy wealthy by the Fed's money-printing, are continuing to spend their dough to keep the economy going and delay recession, or not. Bulls must keep XRT above 79.62 so watch it closely. Also, bulls need higher utilities so any buoyancy in utes will be further evidence that the bulls are strong.

Bears need to push XRT below 79.62 pronto to have any chance of flipping the model short. If XRT fails, it tells you that some nasty stuff may be coming for the stock market. Bears need VIX above 16.88 and/or GTX below 3658 and/or CPER below 26.50. Of the 4 metrics listed, the quant likely needs to see at least 2 of them to turn bearish to be put in position to go short.

Bulls need to maintain strength in retail stocks while also consistently pulling utilities higher. Bears need to push retail stocks, commodities and copper lower, and volatility higher, to reintroduce stock market selling.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning. The month ends on Friday (EOM) so one month of trading in 2025 will already be in the bag.

2/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/28/25; 10:00 AM EST =
1/26/25; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +19
1/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +19
1/23/25; 10:54 AM EST = +46; signal line is +18
1/22/25; 9:38 AM EST = +30; signal line is +17
1/21/25; 3:54 PM EST = +46; signal line is +16

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the robot spitting out 7 numbers to begin the holiday-shortened week of trading. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 30 points above the signal line. Another King Donnie stock market rally occurs like early November when he won the election. The orange head is not imposing heavy tariffs as yet so the stock market is happy. Traders are tripping over each other to buy equities for fear of missing out on the fun.

Further upside in the stock market occurs due to utes and retail stocks. The bulls pump XRT above 79.57 creating another leg higher for equities. The bulls also pumped UTIL above 1031.49 creating more bullish joy. Alas, UTIL falls back below the 1031.49 line in the sand by a hair no longer creating bullishness. XRT remains above the 79.57 line in the sand by a hair creating lift in the stock market.

Thus, bulls need UTIL above 1031.49 to prove that nothing is going to stop them from sending the stock market to the moon. Stocks will stall if UTIL 1031.49 cannot be achieved. It gets interesting because the quant needs to see UTIL above 1067 for all of next week (the 1031 becomes meaningless). That means that UTIL must rally another 37 points by Friday at 4 PM EST. In other words, if the bulls pump the stock market higher using 1031+, that is fine and dandy for this week and it will create buoyancy int he stock market, but for next week that bar is raised to 1067 and if UTIL is not there, any gains will be given back.

Bears need weaker retail stocks and to send XRT back below 79.57 as the top priority. Even with XRT turning bearish it would not be enough for the quant to be looking to go short. The robot likely needs higher volatility and weakness in other sectors, perhaps copper, to be in position to flip short. For now, the bulls have their feet up on the desk and are cruising along worry-free to the Love Shack for more fun and frolic. Tin roof..... rusted. Watch utilities and retail stocks.

1/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
1/24/25; 10:00 AM EST =
1/21/25; 3:54 PM EST = +46; signal line is +16
1/21/25; 3:31 PM EST = +62; signal line is +15
1/21/25; 2:12 PM EST = +46; signal line is +15
1/21/25; 1:50 PM EST = +30; signal line is +14
1/21/25; 1:25 PM EST = +46; signal line is +14
1/21/25; 1:09 PM EST = +62; signal line is +12
1/21/25; 12:30 PM EST = +46; signal line is +10
1/19/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +7

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls runs stocks higher into the 3-day weekend as usually occurs. Markets are closed Monday for MLK Day. The POTUS inauguration is Monday and King Donnie's executive order decrees will impact stocks on Tuesday morning.

The bulls are in control of the stock market with the algo number 23 points above the signal line. Bulls need XRT above 79.62 to prove that they got game for more gains. Despite the Friday rally, bulls fell short of this goal.

Bears need higher volatility and weaker banks and semiconductors. Bears need VIX above 17.29, XLF below 48.57 and/or SOX below 5100. All 3 are firmly in the bull camp so the bears got work to do. In addition, bears likely need 2 of the 3 metrics to turn negative to place the quant in position to go short.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Retail stocks (AMZN, WMT, TGT, etc...), banks, chips and vol are controlling stock market direction currently. Nothing Else Matters.

1/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
1/24/25; 10:00 AM EST =
1/19/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +7
1/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +6
1/15/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +5; go long 5920; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -4.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2025 = -2.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bullish side yesterday morning at SPX 5920. The choppy whipsaw slop continues. It is nauseating. The robot has flipped five times in only 9 trading days to begin the year. Obviously, the internals of the stock market are erratic and unstable.

The bulls came to play on hump day. They started by wrestling Uncle Vix to the ground and holding him down. At the same time, the bulls pumped the chips and banks and it was off to the races with an upside orgy. The bulls are in charge of the stock market with the algo number 25 points above the signal line.

Bulls need stronger retail stocks to prove that they got game going forward. Higher utilities would also help the bull case. Bulls need XRT above 79.65. If this occurs, the bulls will be sending the stock market higher. If XRT 79.65 does not occur, the stock market likely does not have much upside ahead.

Bears had to run for their lives yesterday or get run over by the bull orgy. They need to reverse the key metrics that slapped them silly; vol, chips and banks. Bears need VIX above 17.29, SOX below 5076 and/or XLF below 48.50. Chips are rallying in Europe so that will probably keep them in the bull camp. Bank yearnings continue so bears would need bad news to weaken the XLF. Looks like the bears only hope may be hoisting volatility and pushing banks lower if they want to get the stock market ball back.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading post more marginal losses. For the year thus far, that is only a couple weeks along, the benchmark S&P 500 is up a percent while the quant program is down -4% and the actual trading generated by the quant is down about -3%. The year is off and stumbling. The whipsaw price action is chewing up bulls and bears alike and spitting them out. Keybot exited RWM and entered IVV.

In the pre-market, VIX slips under 16 to 15.98 so the bulls cheer. XLF is rising to 49.64 so the bulls throw more confetti. SMH is gaining +2%. The bears are crying in their cafe latte. In this crazy whipsaw market, however, anything can happen. Markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day on Monday, and the inauguration. Stocks typically rally into a 3-day holiday weekend.

1/19/25; 7:00 PM EST =
1/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
1/15/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +5; go long 5920; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -4.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2025 = -2.7%)
1/15/25; 8:38 AM EST = -2; signal line is +2
1/14/25; 9:58 AM EST = -16; signal line is +2
1/14/25; 9:38 AM EST = +0; signal line is +1
1/13/25; 1:12 PM EST = -16; signal line is +1
1/13/25; 10:14 AM EST = -32; signal line is +1
1/12/25; 7:00 PM EST = -16; signal line is +3
1/10/25; 10:00 AM EST = -16; signal line is +4
1/10/25; 9:38 AM EST = -16; signal line is +4
1/10/25; 9:00 AM EST = +0; signal line is +3
1/7/25; 11:57 AM EST = +0; signal line is +2
1/7/25; 11:03 AM EST = +16; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
1/7/25; 10:20 AM EST = +0; signal line is -0; go short 5955; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +1.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -3.4%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2025 = -2.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 19 points below the signal line. The bears are in charge but there are lots of balls in the air. The negativity in stocks on Friday is because the 'chips are down'. SOX tried to rally in the afternoon but kept petering out. That is why you did not see a late-day rally in stocks into the closing bell.

A new week is ahead so obviously the bulls and bears will pick up where they left off; fighting over semiconductors. SOX 5076 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price is down at 5037 in the bear camp creating stock market negativity. Bulls need SOX above 5076 or they got nothing.

Bulls also need XRT above 79.94 and/or VIX below 17.05. Bulls likely need 2 of the 3 parameters to turn bullish to put the quant in position to flip long.

Bears need to keep the chips and retail stocks weak, while pushing volatility higher, and at the same time attacking utilities and the NYA index. The quant is tracking UTIL 958 and NYA 18830 as important lines in the sand. Both of these levels represent extremely bad outcomes for the stock market. If both fail, it will be Armageddon.

So that is an exciting set-up for the week ahead that prints one pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. Bears are cruising and need UTIL below 958 and/or NYA below 18.8K to send the stock market lower fast. The blood will be flowing on Wall and Broad. The bulls want none of that and instead need to rally semiconductors and retail stocks while pushing the VIX below 17.05 pronto. Who will win? There are Winners and Losers every day in the big city. Life's a gamble, and you might lose.

1/19/25; 7:00 PM EST =
1/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
1/12/25; 7:00 PM EST = -16; signal line is +3
1/10/25; 10:00 AM EST = -16; signal line is +4
1/10/25; 9:38 AM EST = -16; signal line is +4
1/10/25; 9:00 AM EST = +0; signal line is +3
1/7/25; 11:57 AM EST = +0; signal line is +2

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short this morning at SPX 5955 as the relentless whipsaw slop continues in 2025. It is sickening price action. Choppy markets chew-up bulls and bears alike and wreak havoc on algorithms. This morning started with euphoric bull joy.

The algo number popped to +46 and the orgy was on. But as the first hour of trading played out, the bulls fell on their sword and had to say goodbye. Banks, retail stocks and volatility jump into the bear camp sending stocks lower. This price action the last 4 days, to begin the year, has never been seen in the 16-year history of the quant. The bulls may have to become good at Saying Goodbye.

The bears are in charge but the algo number is only 2 measly points below the signal line (anything can happen). Focus on banks and volatility. XLF 48.61 and VIX 17.03 are the bull/bear lines in the sand that dictate who wins. Both are bearish (weaker banks, higher volatility) so the bulls need either metric to join their side and that will stop the stock market selling. Bulls got nothing going forward unless they can push VIX below 17.03. Check it in the morning and you will know what will happen during the day before it happens.

Bears need weaker copper if they want to create a strong downleg for stocks. Bears need CPER below 26.09 and all Hell will break loose in the stock market. This represents a -0.4% drop in copper futures. If you see copper futures down more than -0.4%, that means the bears are going to start slapping bulls around.

On the last trade that ran for a day, the chop suey does not taste good, the quant program and actual trading each lose less than a percent. For the year thus far, after four sh*tty days of whipsaw choppy slop, the benchmark SPX is up a percent. The quant program is down about three percent and the actual trading begins the year down a couple percent. Hey Keybot the Quant, you are supposed to be going up, not down. Quiet down, peanut gallery. There is 12 months of fun ahead so there will be lots of twists and turns. Keybot exited QQQ and entered RWM. The Twist. Come on little baby, do the twist. Twist & Shout. C'mon, baby, work it on out, twist little girl, you twist so fine.

1/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
1/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
1/10/25; 9:00 AM EST =
1/7/25; 11:57 AM EST = +0; signal line is +2
1/7/25; 11:03 AM EST = +16; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
1/7/25; 10:20 AM EST = +0; signal line is -0; go short 5955; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +1.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -3.4%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2025 = -2.4%)
1/7/25; 10:10 AM EST = +14; signal line is -1
1/7/25; 9:46 AM EST = +30; signal line is -3
1/7/25; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is -4
1/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = +14; signal line is -7
1/6/25; 3:12 PM EST = -2; signal line is -8
1/6/25; 2:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is -8
1/6/25; 1:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is -10
1/6/25; 10:03 AM EST = +46; signal line is -12
1/6/25; 9:48 AM EST = +30; signal line is -13
1/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is -13; go long 5988; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -2.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2025 = -1.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 5988. The bulls came to play yesterday pumping semiconductors. The choppy whipsaw slop continues in 2025. It's a Wild Wild Life.

Copper, retail stocks and banks were pumped higher creating yesterday's stock market joy as the first full week of trading in 2025 is underway. New money comes in to start the year especially during the first five days; that ends tomorrow. The chop suey price action is likely due to a battle between the new money coming in versus the sellers on the way out that waited for January so they do not have to think about the tax gains until next year.

The bulls are in charge of the stock market with the algo number 21 points above the signal line. The caution flag remains out since the price action thus far this year is erratic and unstable so anything can happen at the wink of an eye.

The bulls need stronger copper and banks to catapult stocks higher to the huge price targets set by Wall Street analysts. Bulls need CPER above 26.09, which will occur this morning by the looks of the copper futures, and/or XLF above 48.62. XLF is at 48.50 right now in the pre-market. So bulls should receive more upside juice in stocks due to happy copper and the jury is out if the banksters will provide more equity pumpage.

Bears need to reverse the happiness in copper and drive the red metal lower. Ditto with banks. At the same time, the bears need XRT below the 79.97 palindrome, and VIX above 17.03, to position the quant to flip short. Bears got nothing unless they can get the VIX up over 17 heading higher.

On the last trade, that ran for only a couple days, the quant program loses -1.5% and the actual trading loses -0.4%. The trading loss was not as bad as the algo program because there is robust buying appearing in the inverse ETF's. The huge amount of money in ETF's, and how it all can shift on a dime, makes you stop and think. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 index, that is the US stock market, is up +2%. The quant program is down -3% and the actual trading begins the year down a couple percent after three losing trades. The robot starts the year short, and flips long, then short again, now long again. Chop suey. You put your right foot in, you put your right foot out....do the Hokey Pokey and turn yourself around, that's what its all about. Everybody now! Keybot the Quant exited DOG, that was a dog trade, and entered QQQ.

1/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
1/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
1/10/25; 9:00 AM EST =
1/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = +14; signal line is -7
1/6/25; 3:12 PM EST = -2; signal line is -8
1/6/25; 2:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is -8
1/6/25; 1:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is -10
1/6/25; 10:03 AM EST = +46; signal line is -12
1/6/25; 9:48 AM EST = +30; signal line is -13
1/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is -13; go long 5988; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -2.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2025 = -1.6%)
1/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains short
1/3/25; 11:25 AM EST = -2; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
1/3/25; 11:14 AM EST = -16; signal line is -11
1/3/25; 11:04 AM EST = -2; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains short
1/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = -16; signal line is -8
1/2/25; 12:30 PM EST = -32; signal line is -7
1/2/25; 11:53 AM EST = -16; signal line is -6
1/2/25; 11:00 AM EST = -32; signal line is -5; go short 5899; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2025 = -1.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to jump back on the long side with the algo number 11 points above the signal line. The chop suey year continues with erratic and unstable price action.

The bulls need to push the SPX above 5949 for Keybot the Quant to likely flip long. That is only +7 points higher in the futures that are now trading up +4 on Sunday evening on the East Coast. The bulls are so close to taking over control, they can smell it. The turn may be imminent.

Bears need weaker chips and to push SOX below 5062 to reintroduce stock market negativity. Bears also need VIX above 17.03 or they got buptkis and will fold like a cheap suit.

Bulls can probably flip the model long with +7 SPX points, and stocks would then run higher on stronger retail stocks and banks. Bulls need XRT above 80.00 and/or XLF above 48.63 and stocks will run to the moon. If stocks rally, but retail stocks and banks are negative, that would tell you that the upside may be a fake-out.

Bulls need SPX 5949 and higher to sing a happy tune and likely flip Keybot to the long side, while bears need SOX below 5062 to reintroduce selling pressure. It is a year of choppy slop so far. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week both on Friday morning. Who will be the Leader of the Pack?

1/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
1/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
1/10/25; 9:00 AM EST =
1/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains short
1/3/25; 11:25 AM EST = -2; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
1/3/25; 11:14 AM EST = -16; signal line is -11
1/3/25; 11:04 AM EST = -2; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains short
1/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = -16; signal line is -8
1/2/25; 12:30 PM EST = -32; signal line is -7