Keybot the Quant remains long after an exciting start to the week. Monday was more volatility games with the quant printing 6 numbers. Today the robot prints two numbers potentially paving the way to Hades. The algo number is 24 points below the signal line so the bears are champing at the bit to take control of the stock market. Alas, the internal parameters would not latch to permit the move, and then they all latched, but needed to hold it for 2 more minutes, but could not. All this drama occurred around 11 AM EST-ish this morning.
Volatility, banks and commodities remain key but retail stocks come out of left field tumbling lower down the hill for the last couple days, like Uncle Ralph at the summer picnic after he drank one too many highballs. XRT 84.65 is the bull/bear line in the sand that was vaporized this morning leading to much of the weakness in the stock market. Everyone is looking at tech and AI stocks but they forgot to look at retail stocks.
VIX jumped above the key 16.57 bull/bear line in the sand (remember, these numbers are constantly being calculated) and kept running above 17 today creating more stock market angst. Despite both retail stocks and volatility shunning the bull camp and now joining the bears, the robot did not flip short yet. If the SPX loses the 6700 level tomorrow, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. This is a 15-point drop so check the S&P futures overnight to see if -15 points are on the board to set up Wednesday.
The bull/bear line in the sand for commodities is GTX 3823 and XLF 53.23 is the line in the sand for the banksters. It is a tag team match for hump day; retail stocks and volatility, in the bear corner, versus commodities and banks, in the bull corner. Interestingly, the bulls need both XRT back above 84.65 and VIX below 16.57 to save the day. Bulls are toast if they cannot drag these two metrics back into their camp.
Bears need the SPX below 6700 so the model can flip short. Also, GTX losing 3823 and XLF losing 53.23 will send stocks to Hell. If stocks rally, but retail stocks and volatility remain in the bear camp, the stock market will roll back over to the downside and fall apart. If stocks sell off, but a sustainable sub 6700 SPX cannot be attained, the quant will likely remain long. If stocks sell off, and XLF 53.23 and GTX 3823 will not fail, the bears do not have much oomph and stocks should chop sideways.
The SPX prints a new all-time high a 6754.49 today, the highest number in history. SPX 6700, retail stocks and volatility will tell you the story for tomorrow. It may be an historic day. Are the bears staging a New York Comeback a la Lucinda with Bruce singing back-up vocals? Two great songwriters. Lucinda took a stroke and cannot play guitar anymore but she can still sing.
10/12/25;
7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25;
10:00 AM EST =
10/7/25;
11:12 AM EST = +29; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25;
9:58 AM EST = +43; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25;
10:45 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25;
9:36 AM EST = +45; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25;
7:51 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 7:07 AM EST = +45; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains
long
10/6/25; 4:32 AM EST = +45; signal line is +52
but algorithm remains long
10/5/25;
7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52