Thursday, January 24, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side. The algorithm goes wild over the last couple days spitting out 21 numbers. Markets are erratic and unstable. The semiconductors launch into the stratosphere today. Keybot is champing at the bit to go long but is held back because the internal parameters of the model will not yet fully latch.

To keep things simple, if the SPX moves above 2647 tomorrow (Friday), Keybot will likely flip long. The regular session will begin from 2642 so watch to see if the S&P futures overnight can muster up 5 or more points to hint at bullish market joy to end the week. The bulls will benefit from a stock market trending slowly higher. If a gap-up move occurs at the opening bell, the algorithm will likely delay any flip to the long side for approximately 90 minutes.

Bulls will benefit more if utilities, commodities and/or copper rally higher. This behavior will send the stock market strongly higher. 

Bears need UTIL below 711.28, RTH under 98.15 and/or VIX above 19.54. Bears will need at least 2 of these 3 parameters to turn bearish for the downside in the stock market to resume. Volatility is behaving very erratically. Watch VIX 19.54 closely. 

1/27/19; 7:00 PM EST =
1/24/19; 2:26 PM EST = +26; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 12:42 PM EST = +12; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 10:20 AM EST = +26; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 9:50 AM EST = +12; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 9:40 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/24/19; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 7:43 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/24/19; 7:27 AM EST = +10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 6:33 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/24/19; 4:46 AM EST = +10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 3:06 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
1/23/19; 3:06 PM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 2:47 PM EST = -20; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 1:15 PM EST = -4; signal line is -2
1/23/19; 1:06 PM EST = -20; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 12:52 PM EST = -4; signal line is -2
1/23/19; 11:51 AM EST = -20; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 11:27 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 10:48 AM EST = -20; signal line is -4
1/23/19; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/22/19; 3:59 PM EST = -20; signal line is -3

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