STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short after another crazy day of price action. Utes and chips are the main attraction today and both fail into the bear camp creating stock market negativity. The bears remain in charge with the algo number 26 points below the signal line.

Stock market direction is dictated by the battle between bearish utes, chips and banks versus bullish copper and commodities. Doctor Copper and other important goods commodities are keeping the stock market afloat but both are near their lines in the sand.

The bull/bear lines in the sand are UTIL 1113.47 (tomorrow only and then it becomes 1103.18 for all of next week), SOX 6608, XLF 52.55, CPER 30.62 and GTX 3860, respectively.

The bears need to keep utes, chips and banksters in their camp, that will create more negativity each day, while at the same time pull CPER below 30.62 and/or GTX below 3860. If 1 of the 2 turn bearish, stocks will take another big leg lower, if both turn bearish, turn out the lights, The Party's Over as Willie sings. Equities will be falling in earnest. If UTIL loses 1051, the stock market may crash.

The bulls need to keep copper and commodities in their camp, they have to keep the red metal bullish due to its impact on the economy, while at the same time push UTIL back above 1113.47, XLF above 52.55, and/or SOX above 6608. Any 1 of the 3 will immediately stop the downward slide in stocks and 2 of the 3 will start a relief rally higher. If all 3 turn bullish, stocks will rally like early this morning and will not give it back like they did today. If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play.

The table is set but boiling it down to something easy, bears will create more pain if copper futures lose -0.5% overnight, and bulls will create stock market joy if UTIL regains 1113.47; copper versus utes.

Also, as the week ends, check UTIL to see where it closes tomorrow in relation to the key line in the sand next week at 1103. If UTIL ends the week above 1103, the bulls are regrouping and may stage a comeback next week. If UTIL ends the week below 1103, especially below 11 hundo, the bears are going to bludgeon the bulls out of the gate on Monday morning. Having fun yet? Cyndi likes to have fun. Back in the days of calling your honey on the telephone.

11/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/21/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/25; 12:02 PM EST = -19; signal line is +7
11/20/25; 12:00 PM EST = -3; signal line is +9
11/20/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +9 but algorithm remains short
11/20/25; 9:00 AM EST = -3; signal line is +10
11/19/25; 2:57 PM EST = -3; signal line is +10
11/19/25; 2:12 PM EST = -19; signal line is +12
11/19/25; 1:10 PM EST = -3; signal line is +13
11/19/25; 12:06 PM EST = -19; signal line is +14
11/19/25; 10:50 AM EST = -3; signal line is +15
11/19/25; 9:49 AM EST = +13; signal line is +16
11/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = -3; signal line is +16
11/18/25; 2:02 PM EST = -3; signal line is +17

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the chips send the stock market to and fro. The bears are in charge with the algo number 20 points below the signal line. The SOX 6625 bull/bear line in the sand was the key metric today controlling stock market direction. Bulls did their best to pump semiconductors higher, and succeeded after lunch, they ate spinach like Popeye, but then they fell on their sword tumbling lower into the close taking equities back down the rabbit hole of despair.

There are a lot of moving parts but to keep it simple, and something yinz can watch, it is likely a game of bearish chips and banks versus bullish utes and copper. The bull/bear lines in the sand are; SOX 6625, XLF 52.70, UTIL 1113.47 and CPER 30.61, respectively. One of them will flinch and likely start a move in that direction.

SOX needs +1.1% of upside and XLF needs +2.6% to help the bulls that may be difficult since the banksters are getting some bad press lately, as the thieves should. Watch the chips and banks in the premarket.

UTIL starts hump day only pennies from disaster. It was the same-o scenario this morning and utilities took off higher like a rocket; the bulls know the seriousness of the situation. UTIL can only lose about -0.3% because if it drops further it will enter the bear camp and inflict serious negative damage on the stock market. CPER only needs to drop -0.6% and it will inflict pain upon the stock market so watch the copper futures overnight to see if they are down -0.6%.

Bears need to keep semi's and banksters in their camp and bring utes and copper over to the bear side as well that will send stocks to Hell.

Bulls need to keep utes and copper in the bull camp and bring chips and banks higher back into their fold to take the stock market back to record highs. 1 of the 4 will flinch and tell you the direction of equities going forward.

That is about as simple as it can be explained now and there are other moving parts. But watch those four parameters for the rest of the week and you will know the direction of the stock market. Now you know what to watch. Let it be said, let it be written, let it be done. Watch it now! Watch it!

Keybot prints a prescheduled number tomorrow morning before the opening bell but that should not change anything.

11/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/21/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/19/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/18/25; 2:02 PM EST = -3; signal line is +17
11/18/25; 1:02 PM EST = +13; signal line is +19
11/18/25; 9:47 AM EST = -3; signal line is +19; go short 6637 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +12.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.4%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +25.1%)(Actual results this trade = -4.9%; Actual results for 2025 = +32.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short after the opening bell at SPX 6637. It is about time. The algo number is 22 points below the signal line. The price action has been very odd the last couple weeks. Chips collapse into the bear camp creating more broad stock market selling.

Watch SOX 6620, the bull/bear line in the sand. Bulls will stop the selling and stabilize the stock market if they push SOX above 6620. If SOX remains below 6620, the market will remain negative and the beatings will continue until moral improves. SOX 6620 is the rudder steering the market ship. As the semiconductors go, so goes the stock market.

Utilities remain elevated that gives the bulls some hope. Banks and chips are in the bear camp and creating negativity. Utes, copper and commodities are in the bull camp helping to support stocks and prevent a collapse.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program loses about -2% and the actual trading generated by the quant loses -5%. That is a slap in the face but no worries. For the year, now getting down to the short strokes, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about +13%. The quant program is up +25% for 2025 and the actual trading is up +33% outperforming the benchmark by nearly 3x. Keybot the Quant exited SSO and entered QID.

SOX is at 6520 so the bulls need 100 points and 6620 and higher to stop the stock market selling. The drama continues. Live is still Selling the Drama.

11/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/21/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/19/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/18/25; 9:47 AM EST = -3; signal line is +19; go short 6637 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +12.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.4%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +25.1%)(Actual results this trade = -4.9%; Actual results for 2025 = +32.5%)
11/16/25; 7:00 PM EST = +13; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/10/25; 9:37 AM EST = +13; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
11/10/25; 11:53 AM EST = +29; signal line is +24
11/10/25; 10:44 AM EST = +13; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
11/10/25; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +27; go long 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +27.5%)(Actual results this trade = +3.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +37.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after a wild and crazy week. The cage match between the banksters and volatility played out during the week with the banks running higher but volatility would not move lower. Then, the banks reversed and failed at XLF 52.79 creating stock market sogginess.

The dip-buyers remain active so any move lower is met with a sharp relief rally creating choppy sideways slop for the last few weeks. Banks, utilities, volatility, copper and commodities are dictating stock market direction currently. Banks and volatility are creating market negativity while utilities, copper and commodities support the stock market.

UTIL, or DJU, ends the week at 1113.61. Remember, a couple weeks ago, the Keybot the Quant robot called out 1113.47 as the bull/bear line in the sand for the week of 11/17/25. Well, isn't that a fine how do you do? The robot called out this key number 2 weeks ahead of time. Of course it did. It is Keybot.

Utilities are a game of pennies as the new week of trading begins. Pay attention to UTIL 1113.47 the bull/bear line in the sand for this week. For next week, it will be UTIL 1103.18 and the 1113.47 number becomes meaningless. If UTIL falls below 1113.47 this week, only pennies away, it will create stock market negativity.

At Friday afternoon at 4 PM EST as trading ends for the regular session for the week, check UTIL, or DJU, to see if it is above or below 1103.18 since that will give you a heads-up for trading the week of 11/24/25. The bulls simply need to keep UTIL above 1113.47 and they should be fine preventing any significant drop in stocks. If utes begin falling apart, however, creating negativity, watch UTIL 1050 since that will trigger a big drop in the stock market and place an all-out major crash on the table.

XLF 52.79 is a line in the sand and with price starting the week at 52.45, the bears do not have much. Bulls will create happy stocks immediately if they can push XLF above 52.79. If price remains below, a pall will remain over the stock market going forward.

The quant is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 8 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not fully latch yet to permit the move. If the SPX drops below 6647, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

This is a long ways down from the starting price for the new week of trading at 6734. If utes turn negative, the quant may flip short right away when/if that happens. You have to just wait to see what the 1's and 0's do since the robot is dealing with several moving parts currently.

It was surprising that the quant did not flip short last week. The week ahead may be historic for the stock market. A late and revised US Monthly Jobs report, due to the government shutdown, will likely be released on Thursday and that will obviously impact stocks.

There is a new cage match; banksters versus utilities. It is XLF 52.79 versus UTIL 1113.47. Since the quant wants to flip short now, the bulls must push financials higher or they are screwed big-time. If UTIL loses the 1113.47 and banks remain negative, you will start to see the downside in the stock market gain traction and the quant will likely flip short.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Wednesday morning and the other on Friday morning. Stocks are jumping around like Jumpin' Jack Flash. But it's all right now, in fact its a gas, gas, gas.

11/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/21/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/19/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/16/25; 7:00 PM EST = +13; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/10/25; 9:37 AM EST = +13; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
11/10/25; 11:53 AM EST = +29; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side to start the new week of trading. The bulls are in control of the stock market but the algo number is only 5 points above the signal line that is not much.

The bulls win the day riding the backs of the banksters. XLF pops to 52.97 fueling the 'end of the government shutdown' orgy. The SPX finishes up over one hundo points to 6832. Bulls are walking around with their chests puffed out and the banks in their back pockets.

Tuesday will be a cage match. There are a lot of cage matches lately with odd results. One cage match ended with the two metrics switching positions another ended in a draw. People do not pay to see such weak duels. Perhaps tomorrow will be different.

It is banks versus volatility. Two will enter the cage but only one will exit and stocks will go in that direction. XLF 52.80 and VIX 16.69 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. The bullish banks are creating stock market lift while the bearish elevated volatility creates stock market negativity. One of them will flinch.

Bulls need to keep banks elevated and moving higher while pushing the VIX below 16.69. If so, stocks will be catapulting higher probably to new record highs.

Bears need to keep volatility elevated and moving higher while pulling XLF below 52.80. If so, you will notice an immediate pall develop in the stock market. Dark clouds will form. If banks turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6771, Keybot the Quant will likely turn bearish. It is a tall ask because the SPX will need to drop over -60 points. Hump day may be a better set-up for a potential whipsaw back to the short side

Banks and volatility will tell you the direction of the stock market tomorrow.

Happy Birthday to the United States Marine Corps. Ooh Rah. The Marines' Hymn.

11/16/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/10/25; 11:53 AM EST = +29; signal line is +24
11/10/25; 10:44 AM EST = +13; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side at SPX 6805 after the opening bell for the new week of trading. Banks bounce and stocks are getting a lift on the hope for a resolution to the US government shutdown. So up we go, but the banksters stumble and fall on their sword, slumping over again, but now trying to recover.

It is all about the banks and the XLF 52.80 bull/bear line in the sand. Bulls win above XLF 52.80 and stocks will jump strongly higher with lower volatility.

Bears will win below XLF 52.80, like now, by pennies, and need to drag copper, commodities and utilities lower if they want to create stock market carnage.

For now, the bulls are in control but the bears are champing at the bit to take the ball back immediately with the algo number 12 points below the signal line. Watch for a potential whipsaw back to the short side over the next day. It is all about the banks.

On the last trade that ran just shy of a couple weeks, the quant program gains about a percent and the actual trading gains over +3% helped by the collapse in the tech stocks. Sometimes the specific ETF helps and sometimes it hurts; this time it helped. For the year that is in its last few weeks, as guitarists practice Christmas songs that everyone will want to hear, the benchmark SPX is up about +16%. America's wealthy class will be happy with that this year. The quant program is up about +28% and the actual trading triggered by the quant gains over +37% thus far this year outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by over 2x. Keybot the Quant exited QID and entered SSO. May as well kick off the season with the top radio-play Christmas song for the last several years. Mariah Carey shaking her money-maker.

Watch XLF 52.80. You do not have to watch the broad stock market indexes because watching XLF 52.80 will tell you what they are doing.

11/16/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/10/25; 10:44 AM EST = +13; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
11/10/25; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +27; go long 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +27.5%)(Actual results this trade = +3.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +37.4%)
11/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = +13; signal line is +27
11/7/25; 10:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +28
11/7/25; 9:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +29
11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +13; signal line is +30
10/31/25; 10:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +31
10/31/25; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +32
10/30/25; 3:07 PM EST = +13; signal line is +31
10/30/25; 12:13 PM EST = +27; signal line is +31
10/30/25; 11:42 AM EST = +13; signal line is +30
10/30/25; 11:15 AM EST = +27; signal line is +30
10/30/25; 10:08 AM EST = +13; signal line is +29
10/30/25; 9:52 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29
10/30/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +28
10/30/25; 9:17 AM EST = +27; signal line is +28
10/30/25; 9:10 AM EST = +13; signal line is +27
10/30/25; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
10/29/25; 3:19 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26
10/29/25; 3:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
10/29/25; 2:41 PM EST = +13; signal line is +25; go short 6856 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +16.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +26.8%)(Actual results this trade = +4.2%; Actual results for 2025 = +34.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 14 points below the signal line. The stock market is a coin-flip right now with the bulls trying to stage a comeback. New York Comeback.

The bulls pumped the utilities last week with UTIL at 1127 above the critical line in the sand at 1107.90 for all of this week that will create stock market negativity if it fails.

The stock market was stick-saved on Friday afternoon when someone coughed and it sounded like he said the US government shutdown may be resolved. The dip-buyers were tripping over each other buying stocks with reckless abandon bringing the SPX back to the flat line after a steep drop.

The banksters will tell the story out of the gate tomorrow. XLF rallied up to 52.78 during the bull orgy on Friday only 3 pennies from the XLF 52.81 line in the sand. Check XLF in the pre-market and you will know who will win the day on Monday. Bears must hold the XLF 52.81 line in the sand or they will fold like a cheap suit.

If the bulls can push XLF three cents higher above 52.81, and remain above, stocks will rally, and consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX overtakes 6730, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Thus, if you see XLF above 52.81 in the premarket with the S&P futures positive, the bulls are likely going to win the day, and this is an easy bar to step over.

If bearish, you want to see XLF remain below 52.81, and for copper futures to fall -0.8%, and utilities to weaken. If copper futures are positive overnight, that is another feather in the bull's cap.

There are no prescheduled numbers on tap this week. XLF 52.81 determines who wins and who loses. Even the Losers. The bulls have it on a silver platter if they want. The Platters.

11/16/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = +13; signal line is +27
11/7/25; 10:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +28
11/7/25; 9:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +29
11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +13; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as a sleepy week muddles along. The robot has not printed any numbers this week but the prescheduled numbers will print tomorrow morning. The bears are in control with the algo number 17 points below the signal line.

The copper versus banks cage match is a dud with people demanding their money back because copper remains bullish and banks bearish. Neither has flinched. And VIX remains above the 16.62 line in the sand creating negativity in the stock market. GTX, commodities, are above the 3841 line in the sand creating positivity in the stock market. The status is quo.

Thus, getting back to copper and banks, the cage match is back on. The quant is tracking these two metrics as the top influencers on the stock market right now. CPER 30.42 and XLF 52.79 are the bull/bear lines in the sand, respectively. Copper, CPER, is above 30.42 at 30.83 creating bullishness in the stock market. Bears need a -1.3% drop in copper futures overnight or tomorrow to celebrate more stock market carnage.

Financials, XLF, are below 52.79 at 52.41 creating bearishness in the stock market. Bulls need a +0.7% gain in the banksters to signal that the stock market selling has stopped, markets are stable, and the quant may be in position to flip long.

Thus, very simply, if CPER loses 30.42, stocks are toast. If XLF regains 52.79, stocks will rally and recover and the robot may flip long. It is a cage match rematch. One of the two will flinch and the stock market will follow.

Utilities are sneaking around in the stock market bushes. Go back a couple posts to read the mumbo-jumbo about utes. UTIL 1107.90 is a bull/bear line in the sand for all of next week. UTIL is at 1113 with only the Friday session remaining this week. Check to see where UTIL closes at 4 PM EST tomorrow because it tells you what the stock market will do next week.

If UTIL ends this week above 1108, like it is now, the bulls are hanging in there and will continue trying to wrestle back control of the stock market. If UTIL, of DJU, ends the week below 1108, only 5 ticks below where it will begin tomorrow, next week will be ugly with stocks likely dropping out of the gate on Monday morning. Let it Drop by Sports Team. Be a monkey in a tie.

11/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/7/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +13; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short  with the algo number 17 points below the signal line. The bears growl but the quant has not printed any numbers this week yet so the bears got buptkis.

Tomorrow, hump day, is a cage match. Two will enter but only one will exit taking the stock market in that direction. The battle is between copper and banks. The lines in the sand are CPER 30.41 creating stock market bullishness, and XLF 52.79 creating bearishness.

Bears need weaker copper because it opens the floodgates to pain and misery in the stock market. CPER begins tomorrow at 30.53 only pennies away from disaster. You can watch copper futures overnight to see if a -0.4% drop occurs, if so, the US stock market will be in big trouble.

Bulls need to keep copper in their camp while at the same time pumping banks higher. Bulls need XLF above 52.79, again, another number only pennies away from tomorrow's starting point at 52.42. Watch XLF in the pre-market to see if it is up +0.7%, if so, the bulls are coming to play and will try to reestablish the rally party. If VIX drops below 16.62, stocks will be catapulting higher in a festive mood.

The quant likely needs to see both XLF and VIX flip bullish to flip long. If both metrics turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 6820, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. If only 1 of the 2 flips bullish, watch to see if it oscillates above and below the lines in the sand, if so, that is good for the bulls going forward because it may jog the robot forward to where only 1 of the 2 metrics are needed to flip long.

If copper remains bullish, and banks remain bearish, that will not be much of a cage match. Watch CPER, XLF and VIX since 1 of the 3 will likely flinch and tell you the answer forward. Tomorrow should provide the answer on whether stocks will begin Free Fallin' as per Tom Petty, or not.

11/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/7/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +13; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend. The bulls rally stocks but it is irrelevant with the VIX moving higher. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 17 points below the signal line.

Retail sales, banks and volatility crippled the stock market last week but it is still limping along trying to crawl higher. XRT 83.90, XLF 52.84 and VIX 16.71 are the bull/bear lines in the sand that failed creating the last couple days of soggy stocks. You can check the VIX in overnight trading and the other two in the premarket to see if the bears remain in good shape (remember, the VIX moves inverse to the stock market).

The bulls likely need 2 of the 3 metrics to turn bullish to start the upward stock market joy again. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX moves above 6879 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Bears need to keep the 3 metrics above negative and at the same time punch copper, commodities and utilities lower to create more negativity. GTX below 3836 would greatly help the bears.

Utilities are falling apart when no one is looking. UTIL 1082.51 is the key bull/bear line in the sand for the week ahead. Price begins at 1111. There will be huge trouble for stocks if 1082 fails. Further, for the week of 11/10/25, UTIL 1107.90 is the line in the sand. Thus, watch UTIL, or DJU, at the end of the week on Friday at 4 PM EST. If UTIL is below 1108, there will be trouble in equity land the week of 11/10/25.

At any time over the next month, if UTIL 1048 fails, there is an extremely high probability that the stock market will crash. Utilities have trailed lower for 3 weeks an ominous sign. When utes lead the broad market lower, it means the pullback will be uber nasty. So UTIL will be fun to watch over the coming days.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week both on Friday morning one before the opening bell and one shortly after. November trading begins tomorrow with only 2 months remaining in the year.

11/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/7/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +13; signal line is +30
10/31/25; 10:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +31
10/31/25; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +32
10/30/25; 3:07 PM EST = +13; signal line is +31
10/30/25; 12:13 PM EST = +27; signal line is +31
10/30/25; 11:42 AM EST = +13; signal line is +30
10/30/25; 11:15 AM EST = +27; signal line is +30
10/30/25; 10:08 AM EST = +13; signal line is +29
10/30/25; 9:52 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29