STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The 3-1/2 months of sideways stock market slop continues. The bulls are in charge but the algo number is only 1 tiny point above the signal line. The bulls are holding on by their fingernails.

Utilities stumble lower and remains a sector that is extremely important. Utilities are now in a weekly downtrend as defined by the closing price 15 weeks ago (as per Norm Fosback decades ago) that foretells bad things for equities ahead. UTIL begins the week down at 1061 and would need to move above 1101 this week to regain an uptrend; a formidable task.

At the same time, real bad trouble occurs in stock markets if the UTIL 50-wk MA trap-door opens and that sits at 1059 only 2 tiny points away. If UTIL, or DJU, fall below 1059, stocks are in serious trouble and the SPX will likely puke-up at least 30 to 40 points in quick order and things would worsen from there.

It is extremely bad for the US stock market for utes to lead the broad market lower. It means the pullback will not be run of the mill. Instead, it means there is serious Hell to pay and a crash has to be placed on the table as a potential outcome. Thus, watch UTIL 1059 very closely to see if the gates of Hell open.

Commodities, chips and volatility also play an important role in stock market direction currently. Their bull/bear lines in the sand are GTX 3882, SOX 6860 and VIX 16.94, respectively. Volatility dropped last week as the Fed holds its jackboot on the neck of the VIX now with a 14-handle. SOX popped above 7K with traders refusing to believe that the coveted semiconductors can ever go down. The lower vol and higher chips created the market joy last week.

GTX climbs to 3866 only 16 points away from the 3882 line in the sand. Bulls need GTX above 3882 and the stock market rally has legs higher. Bulls need UTIL above 1101 and stocks will be launching into the stratosphere.

The bears need UTIL below 1059 and the wheels will immediately fall off the stock market happy bus. If VIX pops above 16.94 and/or SOX drops below 6860, the rout will be on. Santa will be getting whipped and running for his life. If any 1 of these 3 metrics turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6793 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. It will be an interesting week of 1's and 0's.

Higher commodities and utes will give bulls further life, while lower utes and chips, and higher volatility will create market strife and leave a lump of coal in the bull's Christmas stocking. The stock market is closed on Thursday for Christmas. Kids love to hear Frosty the Snowman this time of year. Big kids, too.

12/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/25; 10:00 AM EST =
12/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:16 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:02 AM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/18/25; 12:39 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/18/25; 12:20 AM EST = +11; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/18/25; 11:22 AM EST = +25; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
12/18/25; 10:29 AM EST = +41; signal line is +25; go long 6797 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +15.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +26.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2025 = +33.5%)