STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is in the bear camp but the algo number is only 2 measly points below the signal line. The stock market remains a toss-up. Volatility ran the show today. The VIX 17.02 bull/bear line in the sand saw lots of action. The quant spit out 14 numbers today a very active session. VIX ends the day with a 16-handle so it is creating bullishness in stocks.

Utilities are a trip. Like San Francisco decades ago. Be sure to wear flowers in your hair. UTIL 1078.53 and UTIL 1058 are bull/bear lines in the sand this week. UTIL price is at 1075 causing both bullishness (above 1058) and bearishness (below 1079). Watch to see if one of these flinch since the stock market will go in that direction.

For next week, the 1079 is meaningless and replaced with 1101.14. This is important since price must rally from 1075 to above 1101 over the next 3 trading days. This will tell you a lot. If utes rally headed above 11 hundo, the end of year happy rally is likely. If, however, utes remain weak and move sideways to sideways lower, and especially if they lose the 1058, the stock market is going to go down hard.

Those 3 metrics above will likely tell you the direction of the stock market over the next couple days. The GTX 3878 line in the sand is important with price down at 3813 creating soggy stocks. The SOX 6840 line in the sand is key with price at 6948 so watch that closely. Stocks will go to Hell if SOX loses 6840.

Banks and copper are also important so you can watch XLF 53.40 and CPER 31.80 for the rest of the week.

Bears need VIX above 17.02 pronto or they got nothing. If successful, bears then need SOX below 6840 that will create stock market carnage and if UTIL loses 1058, it will be a bloodbath on Wall Street. That would be fun.

Bulls need UTIL above 1078.53 and/or GTX above 3878. Focus on utilities since price is at 1075 only a whisker away from 1079. Bulls will show that they have staying power and want the ball back if they can flip at least 1 of the 2 to the bull camp. Both will be needed to create a sustainable rally into the new year. If bulls fail to turn either parameter bullish, and then the VIX pops above 17.02, it is end times for stocks.

Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds (LSD) was a trippin' song by The Beatles, or was it? John said it was a coincidence that the song title spelled out LSD. You see Lucy in the sky with diamonds when you come to the surface in your Yellow Submarine.

12/21/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/19/25; 10:00 AM EST =
12/16/25; 2:34 PM EST = +25; signal line is +27
12/16/25; 2:17 PM EST = +11; signal line is +27
12/16/25; 1:41 PM EST = +25; signal line is +28
12/16/25; 12:55 PM EST = +11; signal line is +29
12/16/25; 10:50 AM EST = +25; signal line is +30