Keybot the Quant remains long so far this sleepy week as everyone waits for the Fed today. Pope Powell will bring the tablets down from On High this afternoon and tell everyone how to trade. The bulls remain in control of the stock market to start the day but the algo number is only 6 points above the signal line that is not much so the caution flag is out (the bears are hiding in the bushes ready to pounce).
Volatility, utilities, banks and commodities are all that matter. Ignore everything else. VIX pops above the bull/bear line in the sand at 17.27 creating a soggy start to the day. Watch this closely since it is a rudder controlling market direction. VIX is at 17.31 creating bearishness in the stock market but only by a hair.
UTIL is at 1060 and disaster will occur for stocks at the 1057 bull/bear line in the sand and lower. The bulls kept it above this week hoping that Pope Powell will deliver a sermon today that creates joy and happiness in stocks. Watch UTIL, or DJU, closely because a potential crash will be on the table going forward if 1057 fails.
For the financials, XLF 52.87 is the line in the sand and price is at 53.32 in the pre-market so the banksters are another game of dollars and pennies. Stocks will fall apart if XLF 52.87 fails. JPM took the pipe yesterday afternoon.
GTX 3884 is the commodities line in the sand and price is at 3915 creating bullishness. Bears need weaker commodities.
Thus, volatility is in the bear camp wanting the day to turn ugly. UTIL, XLF and GTX are in the bull camp wanting the good times to roll along. Bears need weaker utes, banks and commodities to drive the stock market into Hell. The bulls simply need VIX back below 17.27 and the good times will continue for stocks.
If VIX remains bearish, and 1 of the other 3 metrics flip bearish, consider the turn to the short side to be on the table and imminent, and if the SPX falls below 6837 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, but you have to wait and see what Pope Powell and the 1's and 0's say.
12/14/25;
7:00 PM EST =
12/10/25;
5:31 AM EST = +25; signal line is +19
12/7/25;
7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +17
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