STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long despite the sell off into the closing bell today. Copper and volatility are dancing on the fence and the direction they fall tomorrow will determine broad market direction.  On a longer term time frame, the market bears have something to smile about today since the month-end print occurred for the SPX and it finished well below the 12-month MA indicating that the broad markets remain in a secular bear market moving forward for the weeks and months ahead.

For tomorrow, since the SPX closed at the lows, the market bears only need red futures overnight, even red only by a few pennies, and this will be enough to continue the selling right where it left off at the close today, with the SPX working down to test support at 1249, 1247, 1244 and stronger support at 1242. SPX 1249 is important since the SPX failed here on 8/4/11 ushering in the waterfall sell off. Also of interest is that the SPX dropped back under the starting year number of 1257.64 turning negative on the year again.

Keeping it simple for tomorrow, watch JJC (copper) 46.80 and VIX 30.00. Closing prints are JJC 46.90 and VIX 29.96, both market bullish (copper is above 46.80 and VIX is below 30). These sectors are only providing market bullishness by pennies, the JJC only 10 cents over, and the VIX only four cents under, hence, they are dancing on the fence line tonight. If JJC loses 46.80 and/or VIX moves up and over 30, the broad markets will be selling off; controlled selling if one turns bearish, if both turn bearish, the selling will accelerate substantially and Keybot will probably flip to the short side.  If JJC stays above 46.80 and VIX stays below 30, the markets will move sideways to sideways up during Tuesday's session.

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/6/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/4/11; 9:00 AM EST =

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +22; signal line is -1

10/31/11; 12:42 AM EST = +22; signal line is -2

10/31/11; 12:21 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3

10/31/11; 11:27 AM EST = +22; signal line is -4

10/31/11; 10:53 AM EST = +6; signal line is -5

10/31/11; 10:42 AM EST = +22; signal line is -6

10/31/11; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is -8

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is -9

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is -11

10/27/11; 11:59 AM EST = +36; signal line is -13

10/27/11; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -15

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but the caution flag waves again.  The quant falls from +36 to +6 in a heart beat, the algo number and signl line converging closer which leads to Keybot flipping short at some point forward.  Copper is dropping this morning reflective of dollar strength.

Continue to watch copper today. Use JJC as a proxy, the 46.75 level, last print is 46.60 favoring market bears in the broad markets, but only by 15 pennies.  As highlighted last evening, the SPX 1277 level is key today since this is the 12-month MA cross that projects a secular bear market versus a secular bull market, and the month-end print occurs at 4 PM today, when the print is cast in concrete.  Thus, SPX closing today above 1277 and the bulls can throw confetti. A close below 1277 and the market bears are still in control of these markets. If the market bears decide to take things lower, they will probably attack the retail or banking sectors, or, try to drive volatilty, the VIX, above 30 again.

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/6/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/4/11; 9:00 AM EST =

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/31/11; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is -8

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is -9

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is -11

10/27/11; 11:59 AM EST = +36; signal line is -13

10/27/11; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -15

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long to start the new trading week. Markets are already jumpy considering the jam packed week ahead with earnings, economic data and the four key events; FOMC, ECB, G20 Summit and Jobs Report. The overnight session tonight reacts to currency intervention by the BOJ.

Many major sectors have joined the bull camp now to help support market buoyancy. Watch copper on Monday, JJC, now at 48.21. If the 46.75 level fails, the broad markets will sell off. The other key item for Monday, since the EOM prints will be available at 4 PM, is the SPX 1277-1278 level. If Monday finishes with the SPX above, the market bulls can throw confetti since it means the secular bearish market trend has reversed. The market bears must close the day below 1277-1278 to maintain the current secular bear market posture.

The algo will print two pre-scheduled numbers this week; one tomorrow night and the second on Friday morning. This week should be epic trading since a huge confluence of technicals, fundamentals, events, earnings, data, meetings, summit and jobs report all occur in this same time frame. Hang on tight. Keep it simple, watch SPX 1277-1278 like a hawk.

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/6/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/4/11; 9:00 AM EST =

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is -9

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is -11

10/27/11; 11:59 AM EST = +36; signal line is -13

10/27/11; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -15

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long thru the weekend. The pre-scheduled number Friday was the only number the algo printed during the session. Tomorrow, the week ahead wil be set up once the quant prints the pre-scheduled Sunday number.

The markets were flat Friday since copper did not give up ground, this kept the markets buoyant, but commodities did not run upwards, this prevented further market upside.  The SPX 1277-1278 level is extremely important for Monday.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is -11

10/27/11; 11:59 AM EST = +36; signal line is -13

10/27/11; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -15

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long; the pre-scheduled number just printed without any change except for a continually higher moving signal line. The higher the signal line moves the closer the quant comes to flipping short. JJC (copper) is above 46.75 so the market bulls are fine. The CRB remains five points away from 327.90 so do not expect any further bull strength.

SPX bounced off support at the 12-month MA at 1277 so far today.  This level is important.  Also the 200 day MA at 1274. If JJC remains above 46.75 and CRB remains below 327.90 the broad markets will motor along sideways. If the JJC fails 46.75, the market selling will increase.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is -11

10/27/11; 11:59 AM EST = +36; signal line is -13

10/27/11; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -15

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Big run-up today on the happy Euro news. Volatility dropped like a stone launching the broad markets, copper moved higher further bolstering the move up and the SPX crossed important upside levels as well locking in the bull move.

To gauge the continued strength of the broad market move, watch copper, JJC, now at 48.02. If JJC remains above 46.75, the market buoyancy will continue. Market bears need to push JJC under 46.75.  For the bulls to continue the move upwards, the CRB, now at 324.27, must participate and needs to cross up thru 327.90. For the SPX tomorrow, starting at 1285, the market bulls need to touch the 1293 handle, if so the markets will launch another step higher.

Last night at this time the outcome of the EU Summit was unknown and traders feared the worse. With the huge opening spike today you had to be long before the bell this morning to take the bull ride; the SPX launched over 30 handles in the first four minutes, then another 10 handles for the remainder of the day into the closing bell, thus, 3/4ths of the move occurred in the first four minutes today. Watch JJC and CRB as described above to determine Friday's direction.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/27/11; 11:59 AM EST = +36; signal line is -13

10/27/11; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -15

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long.  The algo motored along calmly today since the four main sectors supporting this bull rally; utes, semi's, retail and financials, remained above the quant's reference number, but, in the final half hour, volatility, VIX, dropped and decided to further fuel the levitating indexes.

For Thursday, watch VIX 29.90, now at 29.86, only four pennies on the bull-friendly side. The bulls will run if the VIX stays under 29.90. If the VIX moves above 29.90, the market bears will be selling the indexes. Retail is receiving a negative divergence smack down and may turn bearish to weaken the markets.  For the four sectors mentioned above, watch the following levels, price is above for all four currently, the market bears would need at least one to drop below the level the algo is tracking which is: UTIL 432, SOX 367.75, RTH 106.75 and XLF 12.75.

For the SPX, starting at 1242, the market bulls need to get up and over 1246, if so, the upside will accelerate higher in short order, 1247 will give way and price will probably run to 1252 for a test of that resistance.  The market bears need to push hard since a drop of 21 points is needed for bears to get any mojo going.  If the bears move the SPX down to 1221, the sellers will enter in force, if a 1220 handle hits, the selling will accelerate. A move thru 1222-1244 is sideways slop.

As the bell rings, the VIX will immediately tell you the preferred market direction for the indexes; simply watch VIX 29.90. If the markets sell off, watch to see if any of the four sectors drop below the levels listed.  If so, then the bears have something going and Keybot may flip to the short side, if not, the market bears got nothing.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/26/11; 3:59 PM EST = +6 signal line is -17

10/26/11; 3:47 PM EST = -8 signal line is -18

10/26/11; 3:31 PM EST = +6 signal line is -18

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long despite the selling today. The four pillars supporting the markets, utes, semi's, retail and financials all hung in there fine today. The financials, XLF, tumbled into the close breaking the 13 level down to a low of 12.93, but this was still 18 cents above danger.

The markets will float sideways to sideways up as long as the four sectors above remain bullish, as measured by the quant. The two closest to losing luster are semi's, SOX, watch the 367.30 level, and, XLF, watch the 12.75 level. If either of these fail, the market selling will noticeably increase. UTIL 432 is in play for the rest of the week as well.

For the SPX tomorrow, starting at 1229, market bulls have to retrace the loss today back up to touch 1254, a formidable task. Instead, bulls will simply try to stabilize the markets by not allowing SOX and XLF to fail below the levels shown. The market bears have it a little easier tomorrow. If the 1227 is lost, only two points lower, and you see a 1226 handle, the sellers will enter in force and the SPX and the broad markets will sell off further in short order. A move thru 1228-1250 is sideways action. The market bears got nothing unless they break down thru SOX 367.30, UTIL 432 and/or XLF 12.75.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long despite the early selling. Note the VIX jumped higher again, directly into the open arms of the market bears. Utes, semi's--despite TXN's weak earnings and guidance, financials and retail are the four sectors that continue to support the broad market recovery rally.

The SPX touched the 1238 handle and collapsed to 1233 as would be expected, then bounced.  Support and resistance levels for the SPX are 1233, 1235, 1240, 1242, 1247, 1249, 1252, 1257, 1258, 1259. The starting year number is 1257.64.

The VIX above 30 favors market bears.  Watch UTIL 432, SOX 368, RTH 107 and XLF 12.75, all prices are now comfortably above favoring market bulls. Should the bears start to push lower, the financials, XLF, will probably be the first to fail, so watch that one very closely. Last print for XLF is 13.12, 37 pennies above danger, and currently helping keep the broad markets buoyant. Stay on guard, the algo has placed the caution flag in play again. The algo should turn short if any of the four strong sectors turn bearish at the levels shown. If the four sectors remain strong, so will the markets.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -20

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is back on the long side but in these erratic markets it may not last long.  The algo did not print out any additional numbers today after the early action.  Volatility was the big story boosting the markets another step higher.

For tomorrow, the SPX starts at 1254; if 1257 is touched the market bulls will accelerate the buying once again, the indexes will move vertically several more handles in short order. If 1239 fails and a 1238 handle is touched, the large block sellers will enter in force and the indexes willd drop several additional handles.  A move thru 1240-1256 is sideways action ahead of the Merkozy EU Summit announcement on Wednesday. If VIX stays under 29.85, the market bulls are favored. If the VIX moves back above 29.85, then the market bears are making a run to send the markets lower. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM tomorrow.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Algorithm Turns

10/24/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM at SPX 1238; for the year thus far SPX Benchnmark is down 1.6%; Keybot algo is up 26.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 36.5%. The Fed's quantitative easing talk on 10/21 and 10/22 bounced markets. Watch for a whipsaw today or tomorrow.10/20/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:59 AM at SPX 1206; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 4.1%; Keybot algo is up 29.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 40.3%. Watch for potential whipsaw. SPX 1220 is important, also SOX 363.65 and XLF 12.62.
10/6/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 10:21 AM at SPX 1146; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 8.9%; Keybot algo is up 23.9%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.5%. Watch for a potential whipsaw.
9/29/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:10 PM at SPX 1146; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 8.9%; Keybot algo is up 23.9%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.2%. Be cautios to see if a whipsaw occurs.
9/26/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:41 AM at SPX 1148; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 8.7%; Keybot algo is up 24.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 34.1%. Be cautious to see if a whipsaw occurs. Six turns in 17 trading days is an extremely active algo and not typical, reflecting the highly volatile markets in play now.
9/22/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at the opening bell at SPX 1150; for the year thus far SPX benchmark is down 8.6%; Keybot algo is up 23.9%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.4%. As always, when a turn occurs, stay on guard for a whipsaw today or tomorrow.
This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is back on the long side at the opening bell. A short time ago the VIX, volatility has crossed back into bull territory which is encouraging further lift for the markets. The market remain at the mercy of Europe news but for now, all is right with the bulls.  The utes, semi's, retail, financials and now lower volatility are all pillars of support for the markets.

Stay on guard for a whipsaw back to the short side since the next few days of trading are expected to be a roller coaster ride.  For any initial cracks in the bull case, watch VIX now at 29.80, only pennies below the 29.86 level that the quant is watching. A move back above 29.86 will stop any further market upside.

Keybot gave back 3% on the last trade, lost 4% on the actual trade. Last Thursday the markets were rolling over when the Fed released the quantitiative easing talk. That reveresed the markets immediately also leading to a gap up open Friday morning. The algo number is now 27 integers above the signal line which is comfortably bullish--for now.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/24/11; 10:34 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

10/24/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23; go long 1238; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.7%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via MYY=-3.8%; Actual for 2011=+36.5%)

10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay short

10/20/11; 1:20 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay short

10/20/11; 1:06 PM EST = -24; signal line is -24; algorithm remains short

10/20/11; 10:59 AM EST = -40; signal line is -24; go short 1206; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-4.1%)(Keybot this trade=+5.2%; Keybot for 2011=+29.1%)(Actual this trade via DIA=+4.8%; Actual for 2011=+40.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is currently short but will flip long if the SPX can move above 1239, only a point higher than the Friday close at 1238.  The algo would be long already but it is held back in a large part due to the gap up open on Friday morning. The algo is simply waiting for tomorrow's open to determine if the bulls have game. All you have to do is watch the futures since a green start tomorrow should trigger the 1239 which will send the SPX up to 1240, 1242 then 1247. If the market bears can wrestle back control, 1233 serves as support then the critical support cluster of 1225-1227. The utilities, semi's, retail and financials are the main support for the markets.

The semiconductors are very important this week. The SOX is at 372 and remains firmly in the bull camp, but if the SOX touches a 365 handle, the markets will be in trouble. Volatility remains elevated above 30, no doubt causing the wild large-point swings in the indexes.  Watch VIX 29.30, now over 31, if VIX stays above 29.30 this favors market bears. If the VIX falls under 29.30, the market bulls will run the indexes lots higher.

At the opening bell we see if the algo takes its lumps and returns to the long side, or not, 1239 is the key.  Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week, one on Tuesday morning and one on Friday morning.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay short

10/20/11; 1:20 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay short

10/20/11; 1:06 PM EST = -24; signal line is -24; algorithm remains short

10/20/11; 10:59 AM EST = -40; signal line is -24; go short 1206; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-4.1%)(Keybot this trade=+5.2%; Keybot for 2011=+29.1%)(Actual this trade via DIA=+4.8%; Actual for 2011=+40.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Another day of odd market behavior. The algo wants to be long since 1 PM Thursday afternoon but other program rules are holding it back. The algo did not print out any numbers today.  The gap up this morning was important since it prohibits the model from making any decision for about 90 minutes, then, after time elapsed, the algo wanted to see the SPX over 1239, but it did not comply all day long, until the final few minutes when price came close, the SPX closing at 1238.25. Thus, markets have to wait for Monday to find out how the EU meeting goes this weekend; happy Europe talk with a constructive meeting means up markets, sad Europe talk with a meeting in disarray with mixed messages and conflict means lower markets.

Note that the SPX is about 32 handles up instead of down compared to Keybot's entry short at SPX 1206. Thus, the algo may have to give some back come Monday. If futures are green Sunday night, Keybot will probably flip long at the open; if the futures are red going into Monday's open, Keybot will probably stay short, but we can explore more specific levels and sectors to watch this weekend, along with the pre-scheduled Sunday number. Semiconductors are important next week.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/20/11; 1:20 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay short

10/20/11; 1:06 PM EST = -24; signal line is -24; algorithm remains short

10/20/11; 10:59 AM EST = -40; signal line is -24; go short 1206; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-4.1%)(Keybot this trade=+5.2%; Keybot for 2011=+29.1%)(Actual this trade via DIA=+4.8%; Actual for 2011=+40.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short currently but the algo wants to flip back to the long side. Since the open gapped up, the quant will wait for approximately 90 minutes, time for the smoke to clear, and if the SPX remains elevated at current levels, Keybot will more than likely flip back to the long side at 11 AM. The algo number remains the same today without any new numbers printing thus far.  The algo is now keying off the behavior of the SPX to set up all the ducks in a row before whipsawing back to the long side. Note that volatility remains elevated.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/20/11; 1:20 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay short

10/20/11; 1:06 PM EST = -24; signal line is -24; algorithm remains short

10/20/11; 10:59 AM EST = -40; signal line is -24; go short 1206; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-4.1%)(Keybot this trade=+5.2%; Keybot for 2011=+29.1%)(Actual this trade via DIA=+4.8%; Actual for 2011=+40.3%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns--Bearish from 10/20/11

10/20/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:59 AM at SPX 1206; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 4.1%; Keybot algo is up 29.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 40.3%. Watch for potential whipsaw. SPX 1220 is important, also SOX 363.65 and XLF 12.62.
10/6/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 10:21 AM at SPX 1146; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 8.9%; Keybot algo is up 23.9%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.5%. Watch for a potential whipsaw.
9/29/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:10 PM at SPX 1146; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 8.9%; Keybot algo is up 23.9%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.2%. Be cautios to see if a whipsaw occurs.
9/26/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:41 AM at SPX 1148; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 8.7%; Keybot algo is up 24.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 34.1%. Be cautious to see if a whipsaw occurs. Six turns in 17 trading days is an extremely active algo and not typical, reflecting the highly volatile markets in play now.
9/22/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at the opening bell at SPX 1150; for the year thus far SPX benchmark is down 8.6%; Keybot algo is up 23.9%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.4%. As always, when a turn occurs, stay on guard for a whipsaw today or tomorrow.
This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side today at SPX 1206 at 10:59 AM. Semiconductors failed at the open, then the financials dropped; these two weaker sectors caused the market selling. The move accelerated after SPX 1206 was lost, briefly touching an 1197 handle during munch time, but, in the one o'clock hour, positive Europe news hits our shores and the markets sky rocket. SPX moves from an 1197 handle to a 1219 handle, 22 ticks, in a couple hours.

Keybot closed out the long trade from 10/6/11, two weeks ago, with a nice steady eddy profit. Even though the positive news launched the indexes today, the quant remains short overnight tonight.  A whipsaw will occur tomorrow if the SPX touches 1220 since Keybot will probably flip back to the long side.  If the SPX stays sub 1220 for the Friday session, the algo will probably remain short.

For Friday, the SOX is the key ticker when the bell rings, the semi's.  Watch SOX 363.65, now at 363.88, only about 20 cents higher, the market bulls hanging on by their fingernails. If the SOX stays above 363.65 tomorrow, the bulls will rock into the weekend. If SOX fails the 363.65 level, strong broad market selling will occur.

XLF 12.62 must be watched as well, above and market bulls are happy, like now at 12.80; below, and market bears are happy.  For the SPX, starting at 1215, the market bulls must touch a 1220 handle, if so, the upside will accelerate and indexes will rally into the weekend. Market bears need to push lower to look at that 1197 handle again. If 1197 appears, the down side will accelerate, sellers will enter in force.  Between 1198 and 1218 is sideways slop. Keybot wants to go long again but algo rules are holding it back. Friday's action is important. Watch the SOX.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/20/11; 1:20 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay short

10/20/11; 1:06 PM EST = -24; signal line is -24; algorithm remains short

10/20/11; 10:59 AM EST = -40; signal line is -24; go short 1206; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-4.1%)(Keybot this trade=+5.2%; Keybot for 2011=+29.1%)(Actual this trade via DIA=+4.8%; Actual for 2011=+40.3%)

10/20/11; 10:23 AM EST = -40; signal line is -23 but algorithm says stay long

10/20/11; 10:21 AM EST = -24; signal line is -23 but algorithm says stay long

10/20/11; 10:12 AM EST = -8; signal line is -23

10/20/11; 10:08 AM EST = -24; signal line is -24; algorithm remains long

10/20/11; 9:49 AM EST = -40; signal line is -24 but algorithm says stay long

10/20/11; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is -24; algorithm remains long

10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -25

10/18/11; 1:30 PM EST = -8; signal line is -26

10/18/11; 1:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -27

10/18/11; 12:41 PM EST = -8; signal line is -27

10/18/11; 11:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -28

10/18/11; 9:53 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30 but algorithm says stay long

10/17/11; 9:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31

10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -32

10/14/11; 3:56 PM EST = -10; signal line is -34

10/14/11; 3:48 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long

10/14/11; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -38

10/14/11; 3:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -40

10/14/11; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -42

10/14/11; 3:09 PM EST = -40; signal line is -44

10/14/11; 2:59 PM EST = -24; signal line is -44

10/14/11; 1:29 PM EST = -40; signal line is -45

10/14/11; 12:57 PM EST = -24; signal line is -45

10/14/11; 10:13 AM EST = -40; signal line is -46

10/14/11; 10:10 AM EST = -24; signal line is -46

10/14/11; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -48

10/14/11; 9:39 AM EST = -10; signal line is -49

10/14/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50

10/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50

10/12/11; 10:01 AM EST = -24; signal line is -50

10/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50

10/10/11; 3:54 PM EST = -24; signal line is -50

10/10/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -50

10/9/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -50

10/7/11; 3:40 PM EST = -40; signal line is -51

10/7/11; 3:22 PM EST = -28

10/7/11; 9:00 AM EST = -40; signal line is -52

10/6/11; 10:21 AM EST = -40; signal line is -53; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+0.0%; Keybot for 2011=+23.9%)(Actual this trade via DOG=+0.3%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long, motoring along today without printing any numbers during the session. Volatility, VIX remains elevated. The financials, XLF came down to Keybot's 12.59-12.60 area, but this support did not give way so despite the market selling today, the market bulls are fine suffering no damage.

Watch XLF 12.59, now at 12.61, only two pennies above which is market bullish. XLF will either stay 12.60 or higher allowing the bulls to enjoy the upside, or, XLF will fail under 12.59 which will usher in broad market selling. For the SPX, starting at 1210, the market bears have an advantage since a move down well into the 1206 level will result in an acceleration of the selling, down to 1204, then lower. The market bulls need 20 handles to keep the upward momo going, to touch 1230, a diffult task. A move thru 1207-1227 is sideways action.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -25

10/18/11; 1:30 PM EST = -8; signal line is -26

10/18/11; 1:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -27

10/18/11; 12:41 PM EST = -8; signal line is -27

10/18/11; 11:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -28

10/18/11; 9:53 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30 but algorithm says stay long

10/17/11; 9:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31

10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -32

10/14/11; 3:56 PM EST = -10; signal line is -34

10/14/11; 3:48 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long

10/14/11; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -38

10/14/11; 3:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -40

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot remains long to start the Wednesday session. The pre-scheduled 9 AM print for the quant shows the same algo number but the signal line continues to rise. This incrementally continues to bring Keybot closer to flipping short as time moves along. Stay on guard.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -25

10/18/11; 1:30 PM EST = -8; signal line is -26

10/18/11; 1:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -27

10/18/11; 12:41 PM EST = -8; signal line is -27

10/18/11; 11:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -28

10/18/11; 9:53 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30 but algorithm says stay long

10/17/11; 9:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31

10/16/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -32

10/14/11; 3:56 PM EST = -10; signal line is -34

10/14/11; 3:48 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long

10/14/11; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -38

10/14/11; 3:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -40

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo came close to flipping short during the big sell off yesterday morning, but stayed the course.  Utes broke down, but only for one-half hour, then recovered adding buoyancy to the broad markets. Then financials kicked into gear and the indexes never looked back.

For today, Keybot prints out a pre-scheduled number before the open. Financials, XLF, and volatility, VIX will tell the tale in early trading. As long as the XLF stays above 12.60, now at 12.79, the market bulls will maintain upward buoyancy in the indexes. VIX should be a pivotal sector area to watch. If the VIX, now at 31.56, drops under 29.30, pop the champagne corks since the market bulls will be partying like it's 1999. The market bears need to keep the VIX elevated, a move under the 30 level can serve as an early signal that the bulls are making a further run.

For the SPX today, starting at 1225, if you see a 1233 handle the large block buyers will enter in force, and the indexes will jump several more handles with a bull celebration. SPX 1242 would be the next upside target. The market bears have a long road to hoe today since they would need to retrace yesterdays up move to regain any control, and that is unlikely at this juncture. The bears will instead try to limit the market upside and they will attempt that by preventing the VIX from falling under 30 or especially 29.30, while at the same time trying to move the XLF back under 12.60. A move thru SPX 1192-1232, although a 30 point range, would be considered sideways slop for today.

10/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/30/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

10/23/11; 7:00 PM EST =

10/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =

10/18/11; 1:30 PM EST = -8; signal line is -26

10/18/11; 1:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -27

10/18/11; 12:41 PM EST = -8; signal line is -27

10/18/11; 11:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -28

10/18/11; 9:53 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30 but algorithm says stay long

10/17/11; 9:37 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31