Keybot the Quant flips long after the weaker than expected jobs report at SPX 5126. The upside orgy was created by the banks, chips and volatility. As previously mentioned, XLF 40.42 is a key bull/bear line in the sand and the bulls took it out so you knew the fix was in. SOX then jumped above its line in the sand at 4660 and VIX fell below the key 14.11 bull/bear demarcation line and the rest is history. Bullish traders and dip-buyers were buying any stock with a heartbeat goosing prices higher.
The algo number is 26 points above the signal line so the bulls are feeling very confident. Only in crony capitalism could society be happy that the jobs picture is worse because that will prompt the Federal Reserve to ease monetary conditions faster which will send stocks, that only one-half of the country own, with most stock held by the wealthiest elite, to the moon. What a pile of sh*t it is.
The US stock market direction is currently driven by 5 parameters; retail stocks (think Scamazon), chips, banks, volatility and commodities. Nothing else matters. Retail stocks are the only negative parameter of the five. The other four create the upside orgy on Friday.
Thus, for the rally to continue, retail stocks must hop aboard the bull bandwagon. All Aboard for This Train Is Bound for Glory. Bulls must push RTH above 201.80 to prove that the stock market rally has legs. Well, do you feel lucky, punk? Watch Scamazon. If AMZN rallies and sends RTH higher, the stock market is going to be in party mode.
Bears need SOX below 4660 and/or VIX above 14.11 and/or XLF below 40.42 and/or GTX below 3634. All four are creating stock market bullishness right now but they are dancing on the bull/bear lines in the sand without much wiggle room. The bears only need one of the four to flip bearish to stall the rally in stocks. If two of the four flip bearish and the SPX drops below 5101 on Monday, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short again. For now, the caution flag is out but if two of the four flip negative, the imminent turn back to the short side will be in play. Easy-peasy.
On the last trade that ran for only a couple days, the quant program loses a couple percent and the actual trading loses about -4%. On the year, the benchmark SPX is up about +8% while the Keybot the Quant algorithm is down a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the quant is down about four percent. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.
The whipsaw slop continues. Obviously, the jobs report created the Friday orgy. RTH 201.80 tells you if the rally continues while sogginess in chips, banks and commodities, and a move higher in volatility, will send stocks south again. Time for a fun day at Itchykoo Park. The stock market is all too beautiful, or is it?
5/5/24;
7:00 PM EST =
5/3/24;
11:18 AM EST = +44; signal line is +18
5/3/24;
10:18 AM EST = +28; signal line is +16
5/3/24; 9:30 AM EST = +44; signal line is +15; go long 5126;
(Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +7.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo
for 2024 = -2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -3.5%; Actual results for 2024 = -3.5%)
5/3/24;
9:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
5/2/24;
3:59 PM EST = +14; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
5/2/24;
3:47 PM EST = -2; signal line is +11
5/2/24;
2:35 PM EST = +14; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
5/1/24;
3:58 PM EST = -2; signal line is +9
5/1/24;
1:28 PM EST = +14; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
5/1/24;
1:08 PM EST = -2; signal line is +7
5/1/24;
10:39 AM EST = +14; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
5/1/24; 9:36 AM EST = -2; signal line is +5; go short 5032;
(Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo
for 2024 = -0.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.5%; Actual results for 2024 =
+0.0%)
