STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after the quant spits out 13 numbers over the last 2 days including the prescheduled number this morning. The bears kept taking bites at the apple today but came up short folding like a cheap suit in the afternoon. The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 6 points above the signal line that is nothing to write home about.

This week's market antics are provided by two metrics; copper and volatility. Doctor Copper and Uncle Vix are staggering around the campfire trying to figure out which camp to join. For now, they are testing the accommodations at the bull camp and maintaining buoyancy in the stock market.

The bulls are in charge because CPER is above 39.65 and VIX is below 16.29. The bears need 1 of the 2 to turn bearish and that would put into play the imminent turn to the short side. If the SPX then drops below 7654 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The bears have it there for the taking, if they want it.

If both metrics turn bearish, it may signal the start of dramatic negativity. Both failed today but they were stick-saved. Check the futures overnight. Bears need a -0.7% drop in copper to begin growling. Bears need the VIX above 16.29 and that may happen in the overnight session.

If copper is rallying and the VIX has a 15 handle, the bulls will be rallying stocks and the bears got buptkis. If copper is down -0.7% and more and the VIX above 16.29 as US stocks trade in the premarket tomorrow morning, the bears are going to smack stocks lower.

Watch copper and volatility. Tomorrow is the last day of September and Q3 (EOM and EOQ3). Get up, Billie Joe! Wake up! You said to Wake Me Up When September Ends. 

10/4/26; 7:00 PM EST =
10/2/26; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/26; 1:30 PM EST = +1; signal line is -5
9/29/26; 1:19 PM EST = -15; signal line is -6 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 1:02 PM EST = -29; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 12:57 PM EST = -13; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 12:41 PM EST = +1; signal line is -8
9/29/26; 12:01 PM EST = -13; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 10:39 AM EST = +1; signal line is -9
9/29/26; 10:29 AM EST = -13; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is -9
9/28/26; 12:02 PM EST = +4; signal line is -10
9/28/26; 10:51 AM EST = -10; signal line is -12
9/28/26; 7:29 AM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/28/26; 5:10 AM EST = -10; signal line is -13
9/27/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is -12

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 16 points above the signal line. It was an uneventful week until the robot when crazy on Thursday spitting out eight numbers. The whipsaw choppiness continues with big stock market moves occurring intraday depending on how the oil winds blow (stocks are moving inversely to oil and oil moves depending on Middle East news).

Bulls need banks to prove that up is the direction forward for the stock market but they did a pitiful job at that last week. Bulls need XLF above 56.30 to start bragging about new record highs for stocks. Bulls also need stronger retail stocks and utilities.

Remember, the collapse in utes, now down -15% in only 9 weeks, is an ominous sign for the stock market going forward. Typically, the stock market follows utes lower into the abyss within zero to 8 weeks and the drama is at 9 weeks now. Something has got to give.

The bears need to regroup and send chips lower, copper lower, the NYA index lower and volatility higher. The SOX will need to drop about -5% to help the bears so watch the AI news for any negativity. Bears need CPER below 39.55 and NYA below 23280 and this is about a -2.5% drop in each for the bears to growl again.

Bears need VIX above 16.41 or they got buptkis. Even if the metrics above turn bearish, and even if the quant flips short, the bears got nothing until volatility rises. The downside damage to stocks begins when VIX pops above 16.41 moving higher.

Keybot the Quant prints three prescheduled numbers this week; one on Tuesday morning shortly after the cash open, another on Wednesday evening to close out the month and Q3, and the third on Friday morning before the opening bell. Watch banks, copper and volatility. Don't You Worry 'Bout a Thing by Stevie. Real musical talent.

10/4/26; 7:00 PM EST =
10/2/26; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/27/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/25/26; 10:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/24/26; 12:21 PM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/24/26; 12:12 PM EST = -10; signal line is -11
9/24/26; 10:58 AM EST = +4; signal line is -11
9/24/26; 10:35 AM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
9/24/26; 8:13 AM EST = +4; signal line is -10
9/24/26; 7:44 AM EST = -10; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains long
9/24/26; 7:28 AM EST = +4; signal line is -8
9/24/26; 4:17 AM EST = -10; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains long
9/21/26; 11:15 AM EST = +4; signal line is -7; go long 7728 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +12.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -4.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.4%)(Actual results this trade = -8.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -12.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side this morning at SPX 7728; finally. This nearly 2-month period was bazaar with choppy sideways slop, AI hype, Iran War hype, inflation, bond yields and other drama. Even with the big up day today, it appears that nothing is resolved.

After the drawn-out battle where the quant was a whisker from flipping long several times, it finally makes the move in a nonchalant quiet move higher. Banks remain negative despite the joy. Utilities collapse further but no one notices since they are too busy buying stocks. Retail stocks remain in the crapper.

Oil falling in price and semiconductor joy sends the stock market higher today. The chips have an orgy party extending their weekend fun through Monday. Will the party fun continue or will the chips throw up in the back seat of the Uber?

The battle remains chips versus banks. Bulls need XLF above 56.60 to prove that the rally is the real deal. Check it in the premarket.

When the quant performs strange moves, and the last 2 months was the strangest behavior ever for the robot in nearly 20 years of operation, stay alert for a quick whipsaw back to the short side. Sometimes a jog move will follow with a whipsaw back to the short side, but then the bulls steal the ball back again, but the model then flips short again over a week or two period. The excitement is not finished. Perhaps it has only just begun.

Bears need SOX below 11930 to get the stock market ball back. Weaker copper and higher volatility will also help the bears.  Bulls need stronger banks.

On the last trade that ran for almost 8 weeks, the quant program loses -4% and the actual trading is thwacked -8%. Ouchie. Not good. It was a messy period that could have went either way. The quant has never printed a down year so it has Q4 to redeem itself. The benchmark SPX is up +13% this year. The Keybot the Quant program is down -4% and the actual trading is down -13% underperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by 26 percentage-points. The robot has its work cut out for it. Keybot exits PSQ and enters SSO a 2x leveraged ETF.

Watch banks, chips, copper and volatility. It was Closing Time for the bears today and tomorrow we see what the bulls got.

9/27/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/25/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/21/26; 11:15 AM EST = +4; signal line is -7; go long 7728 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +12.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -4.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.4%)(Actual results this trade = -8.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -12.6%)
9/20/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7
9/18/26; 3:59 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7
9/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = -12; signal line is -6
9/17/26; 9:00 AM EST = -28; signal line is -6
9/17/26; 3:06 AM EST = -28; signal line is -4
9/15/26; 10:07 AM EST = -42; signal line is -3
9/14/26; 2:48 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1
9/14/26; 1:54 PM EST = -42; signal line is +1
9/14/26; 3:06 AM EST = -26; signal line is +2
9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST = -12; signal line is +3
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST = -12; signal line is +3
9/11/26; 8:46 AM EST = -12; signal line is +4
9/10/26; 3:37 PM EST = -26; signal line is +4
9/10/26; 2:15 PM EST = -42; signal line is +5
9/10/26; 10:35 AM EST = -26; signal line is +7
9/10/26; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is +9
9/10/26; 7:24 AM EST = +6; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 3:35 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 3:21 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 2:56 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 1:50 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 1:42 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 12:40 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 12:14 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 11:53 AM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 11:15 AM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 9:58 AM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 2:54 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/8/26; 2:12 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 2:03 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/8/26; 1:07 PM EST = +20; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 12:36 PM EST = +4; signal line is +11
9/8/26; 10:58 AM EST = +20; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
9/6/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +12
9/4/26; 9:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +12
9/2/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +13
9/1/26; 2:41 PM EST = -12; signal line is +14
8/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +4; signal line is +15
8/30/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +16
8/28/26; 10:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +17
8/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +17
8/26/26; 9:39 AM EST = +36; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains short
8/26/26; 9:38 AM EST = +20; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains short
8/25/26; 3:56 PM EST = +4; signal line is +18
8/25/26; 2:42 PM EST = +20; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short
8/25/26; 2:26 PM EST = +4; signal line is +20
8/25/26; 2:14 PM EST = +20; signal line is +21
8/25/26; 10:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +21
8/25/26; 9:39 AM EST = +4; signal line is +22
8/24/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +23
8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +23
8/20/26; 12:07 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 11:05 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 10:30 AM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 9:51 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +26
8/19/26; 10:34 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/19/26; 10:16 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
8/19/26; 10:09 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/19/26; 9:40 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
8/19/26; 9:39 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/18/26; 2:24 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/18/26; 12:56 PM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/18/26; 10:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
8/18/26; 9:49 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/18/26; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
8/18/26; 9:00 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/17/26; 11:18 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/17/26; 10:10 AM EST = +36; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
8/17/26; 9:49 AM EST = +20; signal line is +29
8/16/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/14/26; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/11/26; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/11/26; 12:05 PM EST = +20; signal line is +30
8/11/26; 9:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
8/10/26; 3:57 PM EST = +20; signal line is +32
8/9/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
8/7/26; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
8/6/26; 10:06 AM EST = +36; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
8/6/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +33
8/5/26; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is +34
8/5/26; 12:52 PM EST = +22; signal line is +35
8/5/26; 11:55 AM EST = +36; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/4/26; 11:16 AM EST = +22; signal line is +35
8/4/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +35
8/3/26; 10:55 AM EST = +20; signal line is +36
8/3/26; 10:07 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +20; signal line is +36
7/31/26; 3:59 PM EST = +20; signal line is +36
7/31/26; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/30/26; 7:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/29/26; 3:39 PM EST = +22; signal line is +36
7/29/26; 2:06 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37
7/29/26; 10:05 AM EST = +22; signal line is +37; go short 7403 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +8.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the multi-month sideways slop continues. The bulls make substantive advances to keep stocks buoyant. Volatility dropped, copper rallied, and during the final minutes on Friday, the semiconductors were jammed higher. The banks are the skunk at the garden party. Utilities are lying in a grave.

The robot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 11 points above the signal line but the internal parameters do not fully latch to permit the move. Same-o story for the last few weeks. Maybe Monday will tell a different tale? If the SPX moves above 7657 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Watch the S&P futures overnight to see if the bulls can find +7 points of upside. The bears must drag chips lower out of the gate to stop the bulls.

Keeping it simple, stock market direction boils down to banks versus chips. The bears need to pull SOX below 11906 pronto to remain in control of the stock market.

The bulls need SPX above 7657 to likely flip the quant long and XLF above 56.79 will create positive market joy.

It is all about the chips first thing Monday morning. Ed Sheeran the ginger idiot got caught up in musician activism talking about global matters that he says he did not want to talk about. He should have just walked out on stage last evening and played his music. He did not owe anyone any explanation for the big mess with Macklemore that only had one hit. Thrift Shop was another popular song and video. 'What, what, what, what', what a bunch of idiots. Perfect was likely Ed Sheeran's peak years ago; at the time he said it was the best song that he ever wrote. He was likely right. The ladies love to be serenaded.

9/27/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/25/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/20/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7
9/18/26; 3:59 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7
9/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = -12; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Warsh and oil drama continue. Oil was down today so stocks were up. Two parameters, volatility and copper, jump back into the bull camp creating market joy. Banks and chips remain in the bear camp creating negativity.

The bears are in charge with the algo number 6 points below the signal line that is not much. The stock market game is vol and copper versus banks and chips.

The bears need to pull CPER back below 39.28 and/or push the VIX above 16.57.  Volatility is key because, going forward, bulls are at an advantage sub VIX 16.57 while bears are throwing confetti above VIX 16.57.

The bulls need to keep vol and copper bullish while also pushing XLF above 56.79 and/or SOX above 11890. Either one would be good enough to position the quant to go long, and if the SPX then ran above 7647 going higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Warsh hikes by a quarter point as expected. Oil continues to send stocks in the opposite direction. You can watch XLF and SMH in the pre-market to see how banks and chips are trading. Who will win the race? East Bound and Down a Jerry Reed song from Smokey and the Bandit. Everyone saw this highly popular movie in the late 1970's early 1980's. The "Bandit" (Burt) liked Sally's shaky puddin'.

9/20/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = -12; signal line is -6
9/17/26; 9:00 AM EST = -28; signal line is -6
9/17/26; 3:06 AM EST = -28; signal line is -4
9/15/26; 10:07 AM EST = -42; signal line is -3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as stocks stutter sideways waiting for Pope Warsh to bring the tablets down from On High tomorrow and tell international traders how to trade. A Fed rate hike is baked in so any deviation from this outcome would create drama. The hike may create drama depending on if it is considered to be one and done (stock market can probably live with this) or if it is the start of a rate hike cycle (multiple hikes in a row, at each meeting; bad for stocks).

Every hike over last few decades has started a rate hike cycle so the one hike and done is not as common an outcome. Warsh will likely hike because of all his bravado talk about tackling inflation. He is looking forward to the free buffet although he got a jelly stain on his necktie at the last meeting.

Banks, copper and volatility take the pipe and yet the stock market remains standing on its pale thin legs. Go figure. The stock market would have been expected to flush lower with these three parameters in the bear camp but the market oddities continue. Oil is moving markets. Oil up stocks down and oil down stocks up. The stock market may have not gone over the waterfall yet because Wizard Warsh is on tap. The chairman will appear tomorrow donning tap shoes, a top hat and cane, along with mirrors and a smoke machine.

The bears are in charge of the stock market with the algo number 39 points below the signal line but you would not know it with equities refusing to fall off their lofty perch. Bulls are going to need all three of the metrics to turn bullish to wrestle the ball back.

Bulls need XLF above 56.88, CPER above 39.21 and/or VIX below 16.59. All three are bearish opening the gates to Hell but the bulls are holding on by their fingernails trying not to fall into the abyss. Any 1 of the 3 turning bullish will immediately stop the stock market selloff. 2 of 3 turning bullish will create a substantive rally in equities and if all 3 turn bullish, the quant will be in position to go long again.

It sounds like a tall order for bulls but all the prices are within striking distance of crossing the lines in the sand. With the Fed on tap, anything may happen. Watch volatility and copper futures overnight to get a heads-up on where things are headed for hump day but of course, everyone will be waiting for Warsh and his rate hike. He better not show up empty-handed to a stock market expecting a hike With Arms Wide Open. 

9/20/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/17/26; 9:00 AM EST =
9/15/26; 10:07 AM EST = -42; signal line is -3
9/14/26; 2:48 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1
9/14/26; 1:54 PM EST = -42; signal line is +1
9/14/26; 3:06 AM EST = -26; signal line is +2
9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST = -12; signal line is +3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market drama continues. Oil is the king nowadays. As oil goes, stocks go the opposite. The Arab states are supposed to get together tomorrow to resolve the Strait of Hormuz problem. Sure they are. That news sent oil prices down so Friday stocks were up. Late day, the Saudi pipeline that was handling some of the millions of barrels of oil that could not transverse the strait was shut down. Oil prices went back up so stocks became soggy late day. Oil is the king.

Friday was a surprise since the metrics impacting stock market direction were on the cusp of turning bullish that would finally flip the model long. Nope. The Fed held its jackboot on the throat of volatility before the Friday open allowing stocks to elevate. That was the only parameter that flipped back into the bull camp and it was not enough to create a strong rally.

The bears remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 15 points below the signal line that is nothing to write home about. The bulls tried to fight back on Friday. For the week ahead, it is a game of chips and copper versus banks and volatility.

Banks and volatility are in the bull camp not allowing stocks to sell off to any great extent. Bears need XLF below 56.78 and/or VIX above 16.66. Either one turning bearish will lock-in negativity for stocks and both turning bearish will flush equities down the toilet.

Chips and copper are in the bear camp creating negativity in markets. All four parameters are dancing on the head of a pin so good luck for the path ahead. You have to wait and see what flinches first. Bulls need SOX above 11910 and/or CPER above 39.29. If one of the two flip bullish, and the SPX rallies above 7677, it is likely that Keybot the Quant will flip long.

That is the battle. Nothing else matters. Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Thursday morning. All You Ever Do Is Bring Me Down. Raul died at 60 years young. If this song does not get you moving, you have no life in you. The Mavericks always played it last to end the shows sending fans home in a great and happy mood. It is only a two-chord song E and A so easy to play and great for the solos to shine. Come on! 2, 3, 4, .......

9/20/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/17/26; 9:00 AM EST =
9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST = -12; signal line is +3
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST = -12; signal line is +3
9/11/26; 8:46 AM EST = -12; signal line is +4
9/10/26; 3:37 PM EST = -26; signal line is +4

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market antics continue. Today was a bigtime inflection point day. The indexes do not reflect the underlying damage. The SPX should have dumped a hundo points today at least, but only lost a piddly 45 points. The hyped up inflation data is on tap at 8:30 AM EST and everyone believes they can read these tea leaves and predict the Federal Reserve's rate decision on 9/16/26 only 4 trading days away. Thus, traders decided to hold their powder until tomorrow morning.

However, the bear slap was hard today. The bulls must of had a Communication Breakdown. Led Zeppelin came out on stage and blew those folks away as they wondered what is happening to music. They were so shocked they did not know how to react. Welcome to the 70's. John Paul Jones was finishing his beer before running out on stage. Everyone had long hair back then as the establishment lost control of this new wild rock and roll party generation. Hey girl, I have something you want to love. I'm having a nervous breakdown, I'm going insane.

The bears jammed volatility higher before the cash open so you knew they had the upper hand. At the open, the chips collapsed. Then copper, completely out of the blue, folds like your cheap suit. The cherry on top was the financials failing. Four major metrics taking the pipe should have pushed stocks off a cliff. It looks like it is all riding on the inflation numbers.

The banks recover late day. Thus, the XLF 56.78 line in the sand is very important. Price starts at 56.87 only pennies from failing again and causing stock market negativity. Check it in the pre-market to see what the story is for the day ahead.

Bulls need stronger banks, chips, copper and lower volatility to fight back. The bears are in control with the algo number 30 points below the signal line and it was a 47-point spread in the afternoon.

At 8:30 AM EST, Irina Inflation will shake her money maker and tell traders how to trade. Ramblin' Man. Dickey owns that song. Music has more joy, fun and participation without the garbage smartphones around. 

9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/10/26; 3:37 PM EST = -26; signal line is +4
9/10/26; 2:15 PM EST = -42; signal line is +5
9/10/26; 10:35 AM EST = -26; signal line is +7
9/10/26; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is +9
9/10/26; 7:24 AM EST = +6; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama continues. It is another day of semiconductors in the limelight.  Turn the Page. Out there in the spotlight, you're a million miles away. The swanky sax is a nice touch. Today's semiconductor battle made yesterday's action look like a piker. The quant spits out 11 numbers today and the bulls jam the chips higher in the last minute of trading to rig the win.

The robot wants to go long. What else is new? It is an odd stretch of time with stocks going up but the quant remains short. Something has to give perhaps tomorrow with the new moon. If the SPX moves above 7661 heading higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Stock market direction is controlled by chips, banks and volatility currently. All three are in the bull camp trying to take the ball away from the bears.

The bears immediately need SOX below 11922, XLF below 56.77 and/or VIX above 16.66. Trip six's. All three are in striking distance of falling apart. The bears need at least 1 of the 3 to turn bearish to provide breathing room again for negativity. 2 of the 3 turning negative will create noticeable downside in stocks. If all 3 turn bearish, the rout is on, and stocks will drop like rocks into the abyss of Hell.

Thus, bulls need SPX above 7661 and they will be in fantastic shape probably flipping the quant long. Bears need weaker chips and banks, and higher volatility, to create carnage. One of the 4 will flinch tomorrow and tell you path forward. It's a marvelous night for a Moondance with Van.

9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 3:35 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 3:21 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 2:56 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 1:50 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 1:42 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 12:40 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 12:14 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 11:53 AM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 11:15 AM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 9:58 AM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 2:54 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the oddball price action continues. Chips roar to life and dance around the trading floor like the flighty girl at a high school dance. Everybody wants to influence the chips, including the bull and bear camps, so the battle was on yesterday and may continue today. The algo spits out six numbers yesterday reflecting the semiconductor bull/bear battle.

Bulls need SOX above 11940 an easy lift if they ate their spinach and show up to play. If SOX rallies higher above 11940, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX ventures above 7718, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Bulls also need UTIL, or DJU, above 1110 with price at 1093. The failure in utes for a few weeks running is a bad omen for the stock market but who knows if the tried and true rules of the past still hold?

Bears are in control with the algo number 6 points below the signal line but that is nothing to write home about. Copper leaps higher yesterday the orgy in the red metal is unstoppable. Traders are buying this other yellow metal with both fists. Bears need weaker copper if they want to pull stocks lower.

Bears need weaker banks and for XLF to drop below 56.62. You will see the stock market notably weaken if this occurs. Bears need VIX above 16.64 to create carnage. A higher VIX will signal that pain and misery is the path ahead for stocks. Bears got nothing if the VIX remains sub 16.64.

Thus, stock market direction is a battle of bearish utes and chips versus bullish banks and volatility. One of the four will flinch and tell you the direction forward.

The cash open is 3-1/2 hours away for hump day, and the VIX is at 16-ish. SMH (chips) is trading lower in the pre-market. Utilities flat. XLF is a hair negative in early trading. It is Wednesday, so some Goo Goo Muck, the old Cramps tune, that is now new again, is in order. Gen Z'ers have a lot in common with the cool folks from the late 1960's, 70's, and early 80's; the two generations are in sync.

9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/8/26; 2:54 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/8/26; 2:12 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 2:03 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/8/26; 1:07 PM EST = +20; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 12:36 PM EST = +4; signal line is +11
9/8/26; 10:58 AM EST = +20; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
9/6/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +12

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the sideways party continues. Stocks will have to choose one way or the other at some point forward. US markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The Fed rate decision is 9/16/26 only 7 trading days away. Last Friday's US Monthly Jobs Report shows that the labor recovery is now 3 months along and counting. It raises the expectation for a rate hike so stocks were soggy to end the week.

The pieces on the battlefield remain about the same. Utes, chips and retail stocks are in the bear camp trying to create negativity. Copper, volatility and banks are in the bull camp trying to keep stocks elevated.

Bears are in control, although you would not know it because traders and investors are tripping over each other to buy stocks, with the algo number 8 points below the signal line. Things can change quickly.

Bears need CPER below 39.19, VIX above 16.82 and/or XLF below 56.60. Any 1 of the 3 turning bearish will prove that down is the path forward for the stock market. 2 of 3 is worse for the stock market and if all 3 turn bearish, carnage begins.

Bulls can steer the ship higher if they push UTIL above 1109.57, SOX above 11960 and/or XRT above 87.83. The Thursday orgy rally into the holiday weekend pushed the socks and retail stocks strongly higher so they are within striking distance to create a bull party.

Boiling it down, the bears need weaker copper to stick a dagger in stocks. Watch copper futures going into Tuesday morning when US stocks reopen for trading. Bears need a -1.9% drop, call it -2%, to create enough sogginess in the red metal where it will begin destroying stocks.

Bulls simply need higher chips and retail stocks and that may happen simply by Emperor Jensen proclaiming that the Rubin chip is the best thing since a Reuben sandwich. Or Walmart boasting about great Labor Day sales revenue and foot traffic. Thus, it is copper versus semiconductors and retail stocks. One of these three will flinch and that will tell you the path forward for the US stock market.

If SOX regains 11960 or XRT regains 87.83, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be on the table, and if the SPX runs higher above 7750, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

The bear's hopes are riding on weaker copper, and perhaps higher volatility since oil tankers are shot-up in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, while the bull's hopes are riding on stronger chips and retail stocks. Will the wealthy class keep on spending money to keep the party going? Money for Nothing. Mark Knopfler is one of the best guitarists ever but he never had real big acclaim in part due to using the f-word in this song. It alienated lots of folks in the music and entertainment industry so that hurts you if that is the business you are in.

9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/6/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +12
9/4/26; 9:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +12
9/2/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +13
9/1/26; 2:41 PM EST = -12; signal line is +14
8/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +4; signal line is +15
8/30/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +16