Keybot the Quant remains short as the sideways party continues. Stocks will have to choose one way or the other at some point forward. US markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The Fed rate decision is 9/16/26 only 7 trading days away. Last Friday's US Monthly Jobs Report shows that the labor recovery is now 3 months along and counting. It raises the expectation for a rate hike so stocks were soggy to end the week.
The pieces on the battlefield remain about the same. Utes, chips and retail stocks are in the bear camp trying to create negativity. Copper, volatility and banks are in the bull camp trying to keep stocks elevated.
Bears are in control, although you would not know it because traders and investors are tripping over each other to buy stocks, with the algo number 8 points below the signal line. Things can change quickly.
Bears need CPER below 39.19, VIX above 16.82 and/or XLF below 56.60. Any 1 of the 3 turning bearish will prove that down is the path forward for the stock market. 2 of 3 is worse for the stock market and if all 3 turn bearish, carnage begins.
Bulls can steer the ship higher if they push UTIL above 1109.57, SOX above 11960 and/or XRT above 87.83. The Thursday orgy rally into the holiday weekend pushed the socks and retail stocks strongly higher so they are within striking distance to create a bull party.
Boiling it down, the bears need weaker copper to stick a dagger in stocks. Watch copper futures going into Tuesday morning when US stocks reopen for trading. Bears need a -1.9% drop, call it -2%, to create enough sogginess in the red metal where it will begin destroying stocks.
Bulls simply need higher chips and retail stocks and that may happen simply by Emperor Jensen proclaiming that the Rubin chip is the best thing since a Reuben sandwich. Or Walmart boasting about great Labor Day sales revenue and foot traffic. Thus, it is copper versus semiconductors and retail stocks. One of these three will flinch and that will tell you the path forward for the US stock market.
If SOX regains 11960 or XRT regains 87.83, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be on the table, and if the SPX runs higher above 7750, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.
The bear's hopes are riding on weaker copper, and perhaps higher volatility since oil tankers are shot-up in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, while the bull's hopes are riding on stronger chips and retail stocks. Will the wealthy class keep on spending money to keep the party going? Money for Nothing. Mark Knopfler is one of the best guitarists ever but he never had real big acclaim in part due to using the f-word in this song. It alienated lots of folks in the music and entertainment industry so that hurts you if that is the business you are in.
9/13/26;
7:00 PM EST =
9/11/26;
10:00 AM EST =
9/6/26;
7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is
+12
9/4/26;
9:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is
+12
9/2/26;
9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is
+13
9/1/26;
2:41 PM EST = -12; signal line
is +14
8/31/26;
7:00 PM EST EOM = +4; signal
line is +15
8/30/26;
7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is
+16
