STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side this morning at SPX 6880 after the opening bell as the sideways choppy pig slop continues this year. 2026 is almost 2 months along and there is nothing to show for it except chop suey. The choppy markets chew up bulls and bears alike, and even algo's, but the jukes and jives continue.

Doctor Copper receives a shot of morphine and is up dancing around creating bullishness again. Ditto retail sales. These two metrics shot the stock market higher and enough to cause the robot to flip long this morning. Stocks are still going nowhere because after todays theatrics, the SPX sits at 6881.

Thursday is a tag team cage match with the bullish retail stocks and copper versus the bearish financials and volatility. These metrics tell you the stock market direction ahead.

Bulls need XLF above 53.49 and/or VIX below 17.52 to prove they got game and SPX 7K will be on tap.

Bears need to pull XRT below 87.62 and/or CPER below 35.18. Either one will do to immediately stop the rally and create stock market sogginess. If both fail, stocks will reverse hard to the downside. If 1 of the 2 turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6850, the quant will likely flip short, so the drama continues. If the status quo remains, stocks will muddle along sideways until one of the parameters flinch and that will tell you the answer.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading gain about a percent. For the year thus far, consisting of choppy whipsaw slop, the benchmark S&P 500, the US stock market, is up about a percent. The Keybot the Quant program is down about three percent and the actual trading is down a percent on the year. It is a whole lot of nothing with stocks doing a lot of gyrating, but not moving anywhere, like Waylon and Jessi singing at the honky-tonk last night. Great duet. Honky Tonk Angels. Keybot exits DOG and enters DIA remaining in the single ETF's until the whipsaw timer expires that should be 3/3/26 when 2x ETF's will be in the cue again, if another whipsaw does not occur before then.

Retail sales are likely going to tell the story tomorrow and lo and behold, WMT earnings are on tap in the morning. It is all set up for the bulls and bears and Walmart decides who is king. The Easter stuff is being put out on the shelves as they try to unload massive Valentines Day junk that no one wanted, or could afford to buy. It sits there even at 50% off that is probably the cost of goods sold for Walmart (about where they breakeven on the product hoping to just usher it out the door). Cupid is replaced by the Easter Bunny. Sammy Cooke sang Cupid that was a bigtime hit song.

2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/18/26; 9:59 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14; go long 6880 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = -0.6%)
2/18/26; 9:47 AM EST = +24; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
2/18/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +13
2/18/26; 9:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is +14
2/17/26; 10:12 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16
2/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/13/26; 11:54 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 11:12 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/12/26; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 8:54 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/12/26; 8:46 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 2:52 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 2:29 PM EST = +22; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 11:06 AM EST = +8; signal line is +15
2/11/26; 11:02 AM EST = -8; signal line is +15; go short 6941 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and the position is reinforced with Doctor Copper falling out of bed this morning onto the top of retail stocks and then both fell down the cellar steps. The bears have copper, retail stocks, banks and volatility in their camp. The bears are in charge with the algo number 25 points below the signal line.

The bears are cruising taking stocks lower and will create carnage if the chips, commodities and utilities would weaken.

The bulls need at least 2 of the following 4 lines in the sand to turn bullish if they want to flip the robot to the long side; XRT 87.58, CPER 35.18, XLF 53.50 and VIX 17.52. If none of the 4 turn bullish, there will be further Hell to pay. 1 of the 4 turning bullish will stop the downside slide in stocks. If 2 of the 4 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side back in play, and if the SPX moves above 6867, Keybot the Quant would likely flip long.

The bulls need stronger retail stocks, copper, and banks, and lower volatility. Bulls are screwed going forward unless they jam the VIX back below 17.52.

The robot prints a prescheduled number in the morning, on Ash Wednesday. Today is the Lunar New year, the new moon peaks for the month so this may be a soggy time for stocks, and Fat Tuesday. If Iran will be hit by Israel and the United States, it will likely be over the coming days under the new moon since the Allies have the superior night vision equipment and weaponry.

Another prescheduled number prints on Friday shortly after the opening bell. The stock market casino is swinging. The gamblers sit down to try their luck against Kenny, The Gambler.

2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/18/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/17/26; 10:12 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16
2/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot wants to go long with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. The internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move. If the SPX moves above 6882, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That represents a +46 gain so the bulls have some work to do.

US markets are closed tomorrow for the Presidents Day holiday and trading resumes on Tuesday so the bulls need to show up with S&P futures at +46 and higher.

The battle for market direction is controlled by retail stocks and copper creating bullishness versus banks and volatility creating bearishness. Whichever team gains the third member, that is the direction of stocks.

The bears need XRT below 87.53 and/or CPER below 35.18. Bears need weaker retail stocks and WMT will be a focus in the week ahead. Copper futures need to drop about -1.1% to help the bears so keep an eye on the red metal. The copper orgy may have ran its course.

The bulls need XLF above 54 but now has a 51 handle and sinking faster than the middle class. Bulls need VIX below 17.35 to get back in the game. Volatility is key. Plain and simple. If VIX remains above 17.35, the bears will win going forward. If VIX drops below 17.35, the bulls are back in biz and stocks will begin moving higher again.

Thus, watch XRT 87.53, CPER 35.18 and VIX 17.35 to forecast the stock market direction over the coming days. The banksters will probably languish.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers during the holiday-shortened week one on Wednesday morning and the other on Friday morning. Bulls will root for lower vol while bears will cheer for weaker retail stocks and copper. We may be heading down Copperhead Road again, so be careful down that way.

2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/18/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/13/26; 11:54 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. The internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the flip to the long side yet so here we sit through the Presidents Day holiday on Monday. Stocks will trade again on Tuesday.

Utilities are having an orgy party. The move was obscene last week and no one talks about it. The action in utilities will help create ongoing buoyancy in stocks. The four parameters that are controlling stock market direction now are retail stocks, banks, volatility, and, ......  wait for it...... wait a bit longer .... copper. Metals have been in the bull camp so it is interesting to see that they may be running out of gas.

Utes, retail stocks and copper are creating stock market bullishness. Banks and volatility are creating bearishness. Retail stocks rallied on Friday that helped to keep the broad stock market buoyant.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/13/26; 11:54 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 11:12 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/12/26; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 8:54 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/12/26; 8:46 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 2:52 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is back on the short side at SPX 6941 before munchtime today. The tug-o-war continues. The jobs number was better than expected so traders and investors do not expect rate cuts anytime soon. The absence of easy money rate cuts, that pump stocks higher to reward the wealthy class, creates the sogginess in stocks today. It is called crony capitalism filth.

Utes, retail stocks, banksters and volatility are all that matter. Utilities must have taken Viagra because the move higher was obscene helping the bulls.

The other three parameters, however, are in the bear camp creating the weak stock market and the flip short today for the quant. The algo number is only 8 points below the signal line so the robot may flip back long tomorrow. The price action is nauseating.

No wonder the bulls would not let utilities fall and instead kept pumping Ethel all day long. UTIL leaps to 1120 and it is understandable why. Next week, the 1112 line in the sand is meaningless and replaced with 1127. Thus, the bulls are trying to pump UTIL up towards or over 1127 to start next week on a high note. There are two days remaining this week so watch UTIL, or DJU, and where it ends at 4 PM EST Friday since that will provide a heads-up for Tuesday (Monday closed for Presidents Day). If UTIL is above 1127 to start next week, it is happy time for bulls. If UTIL starts the week below 1127, there is likely Hell to pay. If UTIL falls below 1112 tomorrow or Friday, the gates to Hades will open.

Bulls need XRT above 87.53, XLF above 54.02, and or VIX below 17.24. Any of the three could flip bullish tomorrow. The bulls only need one to turn bullish and that will set things up for a rally, and 2 of the 3 will send stocks strongly higher, and 3 of 3 turning bullish will create a party atmosphere into the weekend with a Monday holiday. If all 3 remain bearish tomorrow and Friday, it is an old man holding a lantern on a dark sidewalk telling you that 'the end is nigh'.

On the last trade that ran for three days, the algo program and the actual trading each log marginal gains. For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about a percent, the quant program is down about -3% and the actual trading is down about a percent. It is a whole lot of nothing as the chop suey is rammed down everyone's throats. Keybot the Quant exits DIA and enters DOG.

You can watch utes, retail stocks, banks and volatility and ignore everything else. Let's see if the bears got game or if they will fold like a cheap suit. Sharp Dressed Man. Lovely ladies. ZZ Top.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/11/26; 2:52 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 2:29 PM EST = +22; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 11:06 AM EST = +8; signal line is +15
2/11/26; 11:02 AM EST = -8; signal line is +15; go short 6941 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.2%)
2/11/26; 10:58 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/11/26; 10:25 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
2/11/26; 10:03 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17
2/11/26; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 8:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16
2/10/26; 3:59 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 1:46 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 1:07 PM EST = +8; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 12:57 PM EST = +22; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 9:51 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16
2/9/26; 3:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
2/9/26; 3:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/9/26; 11:44 AM EST = +38; signal line is +14
2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12
2/6/26; 12:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +11; go long 6908 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but champing at the bit to go short. The internal parameters will not permit the move yet with the algo number 8 points below the signal line. Today was nutso as the odd market behavior continues. Four parameters are controlling stock market direction currently.

Banks started out happy today but rolled over due to weak insurers and reinsurers (the insurers that insure the insurers) taking the stock market down. Utilities catapult to the moon on more data center hype and billions upon billions of dollars being spent on technology that can make endless funny video shorts.

The Fed and others were jamming volatility low to help stocks recover but that task was abandoned and led to lower stocks in the afternoon. On top of all this price action, retail stocks decide to sh*t the bed at the end of the day on weak earnings numbers. The wealthy class enjoyed lavish expensive holiday gifts this season while the majority of America made cookies and exchanged tins after shopping for Christmas presents at the local thrift store; the have's and have-not's of America.

So that is the mess that is the stock market that has been on hold this week waiting for the jobs report tomorrow morning, on a Wednesday. Jackasses. With all this drama ongoing, the robot wants to flip to the short side. We shall see if the jobs numbers change the scenario.

The robot wants to flip short now and all it needs is for the SPX to drop 4 points below 6938. It is on a silver platter for the bears if they want it. The bears also need to pull UTIL below 1111.57, only 4 pennies away at 1111.61 creating bullishness in stocks. How about a shout-out to the robot for telling yinz to watch 1111.57 and price closes at 1111.61. Come on now. Who else told you that target number before it would happen? No one. Keep an eye on 1111.57 since it obviously takes on import now.

So the bears need SPX below 6938 to flip the quant short, all things staying the same as they are now, and will receive extra downside gusto if UTIL fails below 1111.57.

The bulls need XLF above 54.03, XRT above 87.53 and/or VIX below 17.22. All 3 metrics are creating the bearishness in the stock market right now. If the bulls can get at least one of the three in their camp, they will be back in business with no fears of downside. You can gauge upside strength in stocks by how many of the three turn bullish. If all three remain bearish, it is time to gird your loins because stocks will likely falter and weaken. Easy-peasy.

Keybot the Quant prints the prescheduled number for this week tomorrow morning before the opening bell. Bulls and bears are in their camps getting ready for the big battle tomorrow. A lonely harmonica plays "Shenandoah" that echoes down the hollow. Both sides know the stakes are high tomorrow and only one side can win. Such a sad song during war because men knew that some of them would die in tomorrow's battle.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/11/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/10/26; 3:59 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 1:46 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 1:07 PM EST = +8; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 12:57 PM EST = +22; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 9:51 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16
2/9/26; 3:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
2/9/26; 3:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/9/26; 11:44 AM EST = +38; signal line is +14
2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as the sloppy market action continues. The euphoric orgy on Friday is one for the record books. Interestingly, the buying volume in that party atmosphere could not overcome any of the last three days' selling volume. This activity hints that the smart money is ditching stocks left and right as the dumb money is tripping over each other to buy, buy, buy, like the guy on television says, afraid of missing the next big up move. Time will tell. The algo number is 12 points above the signal line giving the nod to the bulls.

Utilities, banks and volatility are the key stock market drivers lately. The utility lines in the sand are UTIL 1069 and UTIL 1112. Price begins the week at 1089 in the middle. UTIL is below 1112 creating stock market bearishness while it is also above 1069 creating market bullishness. The next month is critical to find out if a bigtime crash is at hand. It is time to sh*t, or get off the pot.

If UTIL slips below 1069, it is setting the stock market up for a major drop if not an all-out crash. If UTIL does not fall below 1069, any pullback in stocks will be run of the mill and nothing to get too worked up about. The 1069 is a warning that blood and carnage is ahead. If UTIL pops above 1112, the bulls have the upper hand going forward and any significant top in the market is likely off the table for several weeks forward even a month or three. The 1107 to 1128 range is key for the next month. Bulls need to get up into this range and they will be fine. Bears need the 1069 to fail. If bears do not pull it off over the next month, they will likely run out of gas and fold like a cheap suit.

XLF 53.99 is the line in the sand with price at 54.26. The banksters created much of the Friday joy. If XLF falls below 53.99, the stock market will noticeably weaken.

VIX 17.10 is the line in the sand with price at a patriotic 17.76. It is extremely odd that VIX did not drop below 17 on Friday with the euphoric rally. The bulls need VIX to drop below 17.10 in overnight trading into the Monday session to prove that they got game. If VIX remains above 17.10, the rally joy will turn into sadness and despair. Bulls must push VIX below 17 or they got nothing.

Bulls need UTIL above 1112 and VIX below 17.10. Either one will show that the bulls got strength and then they will work towards securing the other parameter.

Bears need UTIL below 1069 that will create serious stock market pain and XLF below 53.99. Bears got nothing unless they can beat the banksters down.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Wednesday. The Presidents Day holiday is the following Monday so stocks may be buoyant on Thursday and Friday heading into the 3-day weekend. Hey Andy, are you goofin' on Elvis, are you having fun? Man on the Moon.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/11/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12
2/6/26; 12:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +11; go long 6908 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at muchtime at SPX 6908 where it started from 3 days before. The choppy whipsaw garbage slop continues just like early last year. Banks and volatility control the show.

Banks rally this morning so stocks move higher and then the buy-the-dip crowd goes insane buying any stock with a heartbeat. XLF 53.97 is the line in the sand. Price is above creating bullishness. When XLF falls back below 53.97, stocks will turn sour again.

VIX 17.11 is a line in the sand. Price is above creating bearishness in the stock market. XLF and VIX are the yin and the yang of the market these days. Either VIX drops below 17.11 to signal the all-clear for a huge upside rally, or, XLF falls below 53.97 to signal blood and carnage ahead for stocks.

On the last trade that ran for 3 days, the quant program was flat but the actual trading gains a percent because the robot was in PSQ an inverse tech ETF and that is the sector that got crushed. Sometimes the robot benefits from the ETF in the hopper and sometimes it goes the other way. For the year thus far, now into February on the back side of winter in the northern hemisphere, the benchmark SPX is up a percent. The quant program is down about -4% in 2026 and the actual trading generated by the quant is down a couple percent. Keybot the Quant exited PSQ and entered DIA.

The banks and volatility will tell you the path forward. Do not be surprised if a whipsaw occurs back to the short side over the next day or three. 

2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/6/26; 12:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +11; go long 6908 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.5%)
2/6/26; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
2/6/26; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
2/5/26; 10:43 AM EST = +8; signal line is +11
2/5/26; 10:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is +11
2/4/26; 3:59 PM EST = +8; signal line is +12
2/4/26; 2:52 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
2/4/26; 1:29 PM EST = +8; signal line is +12
2/4/26; 12:43 PM EST = -8; signal line is +12
2/4/26; 12:38 PM EST = +8; signal line is +14
2/4/26; 12:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains short
2/4/26; 11:49 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14
2/4/26; 11:35 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains short
2/3/26; 12:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6904 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at munchtime today at SPX 6904. The chop suey continues and a whipsaw move occurs. This price action will keep the robot in the single ETF's for another month.

It is a broken record. Utes, banks, volatility and retail stocks are running the show especially banks and volatility today. The bears take the ball back due to weak banks and higher volatility. This game continues with utilities and retail stocks trying to take the field, the marching band refused to yield, do you recall what was revealed, the day the music died? American Pie. Super talent.

The bull/bear lines in the sand are VIX 17.10, XLF 53.97, XRT 87.12 and UTIL 1069. Volatility and banks are creating the stock market negativity. Retail stocks and utes create market lift preventing stocks from collapsing.

The whipsaw threat continues and the bulls may take the ball back tomorrow. It is choppy slop. Focus on VIX 17.10 and XLF 53.97. If volatility falls and banks rise, the bulls are back in business. If either parameter turns bullish, consider the whipsaw back to the long side in play, and if the SPX is above 6993, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long again. If both parameters turn bullish, the quant may flip long around 6973.

The table is set. Watch volatility and banks.

On the last trade that ran for one day, the quant program and the actual trading each lose a percent. For the year thus far, the algo program is down about -4%, the actual trading is down about -3% and the benchmark S&P 500 is up a percent. Keybot the Quant exits QQQ and enters PSQ. The beat goes on.

2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/3/26; 12:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6904 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.8%)
2/3/26; 11:00 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
2/3/26; 10:17 AM EST = +22; signal line is +15
2/3/26; 9:46 AM EST = +38; signal line is +16
2/3/26; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16
2/2/26; 2:43 PM EST = +38; signal line is +16
2/2/26; 10:19 AM EST = +22; signal line is +15; go long 6974 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long today at SPX 6974 after Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow forecasting six more weeks of bullishness, er snow. Retail stocks and volatility jump into the arms of the bulls this morning creating the upside joy. It looked like carnage time early this morning but the stick save was in place once again by the opening bell.

XLF 53.99 is the line in the sand and the bulls almost broke up through, but were spanked back down, so watch the banks closely for stock market direction. Also XRT 87.06 is key and price blew up through it like it was not even there. VIX 17.09 is a line in the sand and price is a 16-handle now so the bulls are happy. VIX is down to 16.19 so watch to see if it prints a 15-handle for more bull joy, or not.

Stay alert for a whipsaw since anything can happen in this choppy pig slop. The price action is a lot like last year. UTIL leaks lower that is ominous going forward but for now the party, and the band, plays on. Million Miles Away.

XLF 53.99, XRT 87.06, and VIX 17.09 tell you the stock market direction. The prescheduled number on Friday was cancelled.

On the last trade that ran for less than 2 weeks, the algo program loses a couple percent and ditto the actual trading. For the year, with one month in the bag already, the benchmark SPX is up a couple percent and the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant are each down a couple percent. Choppy slop to begin the year. Keybot the Quant exited SH and entered QQQ remaining in single ETF's for another week when the move to 2x leveraged ETF's may resume (a timer will expire). The choppy slop chews up bulls and bears alike especially those holding long or short 2x and 3x ETF's. 

2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/2/26; 10:19 AM EST = +22; signal line is +15; go long 6974 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.6%)
2/2/26; 10:14 AM EST = +6; signal line is +15
2/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -8; signal line is +15
1/30/26; 11:02 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16
1/30/26; 10:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is +17
1/30/26; 3:06 AM EST = -8; signal line is +17
1/29/26; 3:57 PM EST = +6; signal line is +19
1/29/26; 9:49 AM EST = -8; signal line is +20
1/29/26; 9:19 AM EST = +8; signal line is +22
1/28/26; 2:54 PM EST = +22; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 2:43 PM EST = +6; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 12:57 PM EST = +22; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 10:44 AM EST = +8; signal line is +23
1/27/26; 10:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +25
1/26/26; 6:58 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25
1/26/26; 4:40 AM EST = +10; signal line is +25
1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +26
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +27
1/21/26; 3:59 PM EST = +24; signal line is +27
1/21/26; 3:20 PM EST = +10; signal line is +28
1/21/26; 2:49 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28
1/20/26; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28
1/20/26; 9:30 AM EST = +26; signal line is +29; go short 6846 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -0.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama continues. The bears are in charge with the algo number 23 points below the signal line but equities remain buoyant. The buy the dip crowd is strong with traders and investors believing that stocks will never go down again.

Utilities, retail stocks, banks and volatility are the 4 key drivers of stock market direction currently. For the bears, the UTIL, or DJU, line in the sand is 1068 with price starting at 1091. Bears are having difficulty making downside progress but if 1068 fails, it is light's out. You will see stocks collapsing faster than a prom dress at midnight.

The bulls remain in the game benefiting from end of year joy, the ongoing AI and chip hype, and the relentless dip-buyers. Bulls need XRT above 87.15, XLF above 54.05 and VIX below 17.00. The retail sector needs to gain only about a percent; ditto the banksters. It would also be nothing for the VIX to drop through 17 so the bulls have it on a silver platter if they want it back.

If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bullish, you can check the VIX in overnight trading and the other two in the pre-market, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX moves above 6964, that would be about a +25 point gain, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

So the game is set. Bears need UTIL below 1068 and you will see blood and carnage on Wall Street like never before. The bulls simply need a percent gain in retail stocks and banks, and the VIX to drop below 17, and they will likely retake control of the stock market. 

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. For now, the bears continue to growl and the Clash howls. London Calling.

2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -8; signal line is +15
1/30/26; 11:02 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16
1/30/26; 10:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is +17
1/30/26; 3:06 AM EST = -8; signal line is +17
1/29/26; 3:57 PM EST = +6; signal line is +19
1/29/26; 9:49 AM EST = -8; signal line is +20
1/29/26; 9:19 AM EST = +8; signal line is +22
1/28/26; 2:54 PM EST = +22; signal line is +23

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Federal Reserve drama plays out today.  Retail stocks take the pipe but recover. Ditto volatility. The algo number is only one measly point below the signal line so the bears need more than that to prove they got game.

Retail stocks, banks and volatility are steering the stock market ship. Utilities remain important but the bull/bear line in the sand is at UTIL 1067 with price up at 1091. If the stock market begins falling apart, it will typically be a run of the mill pullback of a few percent, however, if UTIL, or DJU, fall below 1067, it means serious carnage for stocks is ahead.

But back to the three main players currently. The bull/bear lines in the sand are XRT 87.19, XLF 53.99 and VIX 16.99. Retail stocks and volatility are creating bullishness in stocks while the banksters are creating negativity. The big banks, insurers and financials are sh*tting the bed, but no one wants to talk about it. Probably because analysts have been saying buy, buy, buy, but if you did, did, did, at Thanksgiving or later, you lost, lost, lost, money.

If bears want to create downside drama, they need XRT below 87.19 and it is only pennies away. Then the bears need the VIX above 16.99 to create strong selling. The stock market will be soggy and falling apart if both of these turn negative. If UTIL then loses 1067, the stock market may go into a crash profile or at the least drop significantly (many percent).

All the bulls have to do is pump the banks, XLF, above 53.99 and they are back in biz. If XLF turns bullish, consider the turn to the long side imminent, and if the SPX moves above 7002 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Bulls are rooting for stronger banks. Bears are rooting for weaker retail stocks and higher volatility.

The all-time high for the SPX is today, 1/28/26, at 7002.28. The all-time closing high is yesterday, 1/27/26, at 6978.60. Happy Days.

2/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/28/26; 2:54 PM EST = +22; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 2:43 PM EST = +6; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 12:57 PM EST = +22; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 10:44 AM EST = +8; signal line is +23
1/27/26; 10:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +25
1/26/26; 6:58 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25
1/26/26; 4:40 AM EST = +10; signal line is +25
1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +26

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number only 2 measly points below the signal line. That is nothing to write home about so the bulls and bears continue battling.

All of you know what it is all about, right? Utes, and banks and volatility, oh my. Sounds like the Wizard of Oz and lions, and tigers and bears, oh my. Judy Garland was a sweetheart, with such a tragic ending to her life. What a voice.

Volatility is key with VIX 16.91 the bull/bear line in the sand and price at 16.09 creating stock market bullishness. Bears obviously need VIX above 16.91 if they want to do damage.

UTIL 1067 is a key bull/bear line in the sand and price is at 1074. Stocks will quickly fall apart and potentially crash if 1067 gives way. Watch it closely.

The banksters line in the sand is XLF 54.17 with price starting the week at 53.07 creating negativity in the stock market. The financials, insurers and large money-center banks are where they were at 6 weeks ago with television pundits telling folks to buy, buy, buy every step of the way. Regional banks have been winners. Banks are the key for the bulls. The bulls need XLF above 54.17 to signal the all-clear. Watch it in the pre-market tomorrow morning.

Bears need higher volatility, that will create another leg lower for stocks, and then if UTIL, or DJU, drops below 1067, it is lights out. Anyone long the stock market will regret it.

Bulls need to push XLF back above 54.17 and the happy upside will continue. If XLF moves above 54.17, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX moves above 6933, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Watch volatility, utilities and banks and you will know what direction the stock market is going.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Tuesday morning. The last day of trading for January is Friday. Time flies when you're having fun. The VIX will tell you a lot in overnight trading. Donna Summer was Hot Stuff in the disco era. How's 'bout some hot stuff baby, tonight?

2/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/27/26; 10:00 AM EST =
1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +26
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +27
1/21/26; 3:59 PM EST = +24; signal line is +27

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the King Donnie Magic Carpet Ride continues. Come with me little girl, on a magic carpet ride. Wheee!  Whoopie! Donnie retreated from the Greenland mess so stocks rally strongly after traveling up and down. Volatility remained elevated and banks remained weak today, so the stock market highs had no legs until the late session. VIX falls below the 16.93 bull/bear line in the sand, but struggles, and then the market makers made sure it ended below at 16.90 so bulls can keep their chests puffed out.

The bears are in charge but the algo number is only 3 measly points below the signal line. Bears need higher volatility to bring back carnage. If utilities fail, stocks will likely go off a cliff. Bulls need to keep volatility low and push banks higher that will paint the picture for stronger stocks ahead.

Bears need to push the VIX above 16.93 asap to keep the negativity going. Bears then need UTIL below 1067 and the wheels will fall off the stock market.

Bulls need to keep the VIX below 16.93 and push XLF above 54.28 and stocks will begin the steady drumbeat higher from here forward. If XLF moves above 54.28, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX moves above 6910, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

You do not have to watch the stock market. Instead, watch VIX 16.93, XLF 54.28 and UTIL 1067 and these three metrics will tell you what the stock market is doing. The VIX starts trading at 3 AM EST so it will provide an early tell on the direction for stocks ahead. You can check XLF in the pre-market. Which way will stocks go tomorrow? Go Your Own Way. Classic performance by Fleetwood Mac. This song cooks as it moves along; back then audiences were more reserved but everyone was busting out inside wanting to jump up and start groovin'. Lindsey's a killer guitarist; next level. Pretty Stevie is always the center of attention. Top of their game. They all had relationships with each other so the performance displays pure raw human emotion.

1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST =
1/21/26; 3:59 PM EST = +24; signal line is +27
1/21/26; 3:20 PM EST = +10; signal line is +28
1/21/26; 2:49 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28
1/20/26; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant turns to the bear side at SPX 6846. Does that ring a bell? Yes, that is the exact number the year started at so it has been a 20-day nothing-burger. Volatility and banks are controlling stock market direction currently. VIX 17.00 and XLF 54.28 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. VIX price is above and XLF price is below so both are negative and creating bearishness in the stock market.

The buy-the-dip crowd is active right now and XLF 54.28 will tell you the story. Traders can buy all they want but if the XLF remains below 54.28, and VIX above 17.00, stocks are going to remains soggy. Bears need weaker utes and retail stocks to create a flush lower. Bears need UTIL under 1067 to create market carnage. Bears need XRT below 87.20 that will create a strong leg lower in stocks.

Bulls simply need to get XLF back above 54.28 and all will be fine. The bulls will then work on pushing VIX below 17.00 and the upside party in stocks would continue. Thus, stay alert for a whipsaw but the quant likely needs both vol and banks in the bull camp before it would flip long.

On the last trade that ran for 8 trading days, the quant program loses -1.4% and the actual trading, generated by the quant, loses -1.3%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, that is the US stock market, is dead flat. The algo program is down about a percent and the actual trading is flat on the year. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters SH remaining in the 1x ETF's to reduce risk in these choppy whipsaw markets. Whip It good. 

1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST =
1/20/26; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28
1/20/26; 9:30 AM EST = +26; signal line is +29; go short 6846 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -0.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.1%)
1/19/26; 3:06 AM EST = +26; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/15/26; 9:39 AM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/14/26; 3:35 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 3:21 PM EST = +10; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 6:45 AM EST = +10; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 6:31 AM EST = +24; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 5:41 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/13/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +28
1/9/26; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +27
1/9/26; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +26; go long 6940 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = +1.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but champing at the bit to go short after King Donnie creates more turmoil around the world. This time it is Greenland drama that Donnie creates out of spite for not receiving his little peace medal from a committee in Norway. What color is the sky in his world?

S&P futures are tanking on the Donnie drama down -80 points. US markets are closed today for the Martin Luther/Don/Rodney/Billie Jean King Day. A lot can happen over the next day before US stocks come back on line. King Donnie waves his hand sending stocks in one direction or the other likely based on the positioning of his wealthy friends and family. Such is crony capitalism.

Utilities, volatility and banks will dictate the outcome over the next couple days. If Trumpski backtracks on his Greenland temper tantrum, you will see the VIX fall below 16.87 signaling the all-clear for stocks to rally. If the VIX remains above 16.87, US stocks are headed lower.

The banks can be used as a gauge, along with vol, of stock market pain. XLF 54.30 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price begins at 54.44. As the Donnie drama plays out, if XLF does not drop below 54.30, the bears are no real threat. Stocks would be expected to muddle sideways with a slight upward bias.

If XLF fails at 54.30, that is serious business, and indicates that US stocks are sliding down the rabbit hole of doom. If stocks are shedding points as futures indicate, watch the UTIL 1065 bull/bear line in the sand. Price begins at 1099 so the bulls are content sitting 34 points above, however, if the utilities fail, a stock market crash is on the table.

Thus, bulls need VIX below 16.87 to breathe a sigh of relief. Bears need to keep the VIX above 16.87, now at 18.70, to maintain negativity. Next, bears need XLF below 54.30 that will kick in more pain and misery for stocks. Next, the bears need UTIL below 1065 to open up a trap-door for the stock market where stocks will be tumbling bigtime lower in earnest.

If the SPX drops below 6925, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, and that appears to be on the table. You have to wait and see what the 1's and 0's say, however, because internal parameters will have to fully latch to permit the move.

Today and tomorrow will be interesting as all the corrupt people on Earth meet in Davos to keep their lies straight and plan future nefarious activities. Davos is where the billionaires tell the millionaires how to live. Let the festivities begin. Will the Shiny Happy People remain shiny and happy? 

1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST =
1/19/26; 3:06 AM EST = +26; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/15/26; 9:39 AM EST = +40; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the carnival drama this week with the algo number 11 points above the signal line. The choppy slop continues. The bulls recover today pulling the banksters and volatility back into their camp.

The gap down move Wednesday morning was not in the bears favor. It would have been better to slowly drift lower and then fail. Most of the time, when a gap-up, or gap-down, move occurs at the opening bell, price will typically retrace back to where the gap started and this time was no different. The quant triggers a gap-down timer and when this expired, the robot was in no mood to flip short. It is far better for the gap moves to occur during the session (rather than exactly at the opening bell) when they will carry more clout. Wednesday was a bear trap.

Bulls push utilities higher a positive indication for stocks with UTIL at 1103. Bulls must push UTIL above 1124 tomorrow and then above 1140 for all of next week a tall order but they are doing a good job of driving utes higher. The bigtime Wal Street SPX targets way above 7K will not occur unless UTIL takes out the utility numbers above.

The bears have to pull the banks and vol back into their camp or they got nothing. Bears need XLF below 54.30 and/or VIX above 16.88. Either one will do to create negativity. If 1 of the 2 turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play and if the SPX falls below 6938 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

XLF begins at 54.37 on 7 pennies in the bull camp so watch it like a hawk. Check it in the pre-market since it tells you which way stocks are headed. Bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. Bears need to create soggy banksters and a drop of only about 7 points in the SPX and that would be enough to flip short. Friday will be an interesting day to end the week.

Watch XLF 54.30, VIX 16.88 and SPX 6938. JJ Cale croaked about a year or more ago, here he is playing with Clapton at the Crossroads, Clapton's party each year. Some called JJ's unique playing style chicken scratching. Clapton is considered one of the best guitarists in history and he was asked who was his mentor. Eric said there is only one man that was my mentor and confidant in music and guitar; JJ Cale. You can tell those guys enjoy playing together. JJ's wife is playing rhythm guitar off to the side; she's a sweetheart. JJ's legs were not as strong since he was getting old, so he used the stool to lean on, but then he was having fun and standing, but he had to stoop over to sing into the mic that was not set up for that, he is laughing his *ss off about it, these guys are the best in the world, they are just jammin' and havin' fun all day long. Call Me the Breeze.

1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/15/26; 9:39 AM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/14/26; 3:35 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 3:21 PM EST = +10; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 6:45 AM EST = +10; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 6:31 AM EST = +24; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 5:41 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/13/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. Utilities and volatility remain in the bull camp creating buoyancy in the stock market. However, banks are beaten down after King Donnie proclaims a ceiling on credit card interest. The banksters create today's negativity.

Tomorrow is easy. As banks go, so goes the stock market. XLF 54.29 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price ruptures this level this afternoon creating bearishness in the stock market. Price is at 54.23 so you will know right away which way the stock market will go. XLF will trade in the pre-market.

The bears need the SPX to drop below 6939 trending lower and the quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn is in the title line.

Hump day is a cage match. Two enter but only one will exit and stocks will go in that direction. Bulls need to push XLF back above 54.29 and higher and they have nothing to worry about; equities will continue rallying. Bears need SPX below 6939 to flip the model short so watch the S&P futures to see if -25 points are on tap, or not.

The stage is set. The bears already have one paw in the door prying it open. The bears need SPX 6939. If VIX moves above 16.88, that will create more stock market carnage. If UTIL loses 1064, stocks will collapse down the rabbit hole of pain and misery.

The bulls need stronger banks and financial stocks like insurers, and the XLF above 54.29, to throw confetti and celebrate another stick-save for the stock market.

As a side note, check the $GTX chart at stockcharts.com. Commodities, goods inflation, is breaking out higher as everyone is relaxed about inflation after this morning's data. Inflation has been difficult to forecast because in recent months it jukes when you think it will jive, and visa versa, like trying to trade choppy markets. In about a month, there will likely be a noticeable pop in inflation. Granted, the bulk of the breakout is due to the outrageous rise in base and precious metals, but buying a silver bracelet for your honey just got more expensive so did a lot of gadgets and electronics. Was she worth it? Sometimes, You Never Can Tell.

1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/13/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +28

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long with the algo number 12 points above the signal line. The bulls pull off another stick-save after the UTIL 1063 trap-door opened and began swallowing-up the stock market. UTIL was jammed higher on Friday with AI hype talk creating the joy in equities.

UTIL 1063 remains the key bull/bear line in the sand with price starting at 1069. Will she fail again?

The bulls are faced with a formidable task. To prove they got game, the bulls must push UTIL, or DJU, above 1124.60 this week, another bull/bear line in the sand. That is a 55-point gain in utilities that the bulls need; can they do it?

The bulls are in charge of stock market direction currently. Bulls need UTIL above 1124 to take stocks to all the high predictions that Wall Street says are on the come.

Bears simply need UTIL to drop below 1063 to create stock market turmoil. If UTIL loses 1063, and the SPX drops below 6918, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, however, this is a formidable task for the bears having to send the S&P 500 about 48 points lower. This is the situation creating choppy slop.

The market may take out UTIL 1063 Monday and then wait until Tuesday to rain down Hell. The bulls have a tough road to hoe to send utes strongly higher but for the week ahead, simply watch if there is strength appearing in utilities. Bulls would need, say, a move above 11-hundo by the end of the week that would set them up for higher ute prices the week after that.

If bears push UTIL below 1063, watch volatility. If the VIX remains below 16.89, the bears have buptkis, and stocks will remain flat and want to recover. If VIX pops above 16.89, this is confirmation that it is time for mayhem and blood and carnage on Wall and Broad.

The drama in the week ahead will revolve around bank earnings, inflation data, Fed speak, and of course, the ongoing AI hype parade. There are no prescheduled numbers for the week ahead. Utilities will tell you who wins. Bob Weir croaked. Keep on Truckin', Bob. LSD sales will decrease. Busted, down on Bourbon Street.

1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +28
1/9/26; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +27

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws this morning, flipping back to the long side at SPX 6940. The bulls shot the utilities to the moon out of the gate to save the day and the rout was on. The algo number is 13 points above the signal line that is not much.

The jobs report offers a lower 4.4% unemployment rate, so a rate cut at the Fed meeting at the end of this month is off the table, but stocks rally anyway. The Supreme Court decision on tariffs did not occur but probably will next week. There was a bunch of data today playing catch-up to the last few months.

The orgy in semiconductors this week after Jensen happy talk, and the goosing of the utilities today, and ongoing strangulation of the VIX, maintain buoyant stocks and new all-time highs again. It feels a lot like the dotcom bubble and 2007-2008. The SPX prints a new all-time high today, 1/9/26, at 6978.36, call it 6978, only 22 points away from 7,000. The all-time closing high also prints today, 1/9/26, at 6966.28, call it 6966. It is interesting that the SPX bottomed at 666 years ago and now, here we are, both of us lonely, we got tonight, ...Bob Seger, and now, here we are, at 6966.

The year is choppy pig slop so far. Last year started the same way. The chop suey chews-up bulls and bears alike. As the session progressed, utes fell on their sword, and UTIL drops to 1069 so the same drama is on tap again for Monday morning. Do not be surprised if Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side.

On the last trade, that runs for one day, the quant program and actual trading post marginal losses. For the year thus far, only 6 trading days along, the benchmark S&P 500, Keybot the Quant program, and actual trading, are all up about a percent. Keybot the Quant exits SDS and enters SPY dropping down into the single ETF's due to the whipsaw. The robot believes there may be a short period of choppy slop ahead so single ETF's are used to reduce risk. In 30 days, the quant will return to 2x  leveraged ETF's.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +27
1/9/26; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +26; go long 6940 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = +1.4%)
1/9/26; 9:01 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25
1/8/26; 9:34 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25; go short 6916 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.0%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +2.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning a few minutes after the opening bell at SPX 6916. The bears have a lot to prove, however, since the algo number is only one measly point below the signal line. Nonetheless, the internal parameters latched and the robot is now short ahead of the Friday session that may prove historic.

Utilities remain in the bear camp creating the pall over the stock market. Equities stumble sideways today as traders and investors focus on the US Monthly Jobs Report released in the morning the first good set of jobs data in 3 or 4 months. In addition, the Supreme Court should pass down a decision on the legality of King Donnie's tariffs. Both events will move markets. The jobs report is 8:30 AM EST about 14 hours away and the Supreme Court decision may be anytime between 9 AM and 5 PM or who knows, maybe it will come out on Saturday?

UTIL 1063 remains the bull/bear line in the sand with price at 1055. This failure creates the stock market weakness the last couple days. Bulls must push UTIL, or DJU, above 1063 or they are toast.

Bears are lucky they flipped the model since there is only one point difference between the algo number and signal line that is nothing. Volatility appears to be the next target for the robot with a bull/bear line in the sand at VIX 16.89. Price is at 15.45 and the VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST.

Bulls need UTIL 1063 to prove they still got game and can take stocks higher. Bears need to keep utes weak and push the VIX above 16.89 that will create another leg lower in the stock market. If UTIL remains below 1063, and VIX below 16.89, stocks will stutter along sideways with a slight downward bias.

On the first trade of the year, that runs for only a few days (remember the quant was long since the end of last year but the trade results were split to keep the 2025 and 2026 numbers separate), the quant program gains a percent; ditto the benchmark SPX. The actual trading generated by the quant gains two percent to begin the year. Keybot the Quant exits SSO and enters SDS. The new year is off and stumbling.

Considering that tomorrow is the first good jobs numbers in a while, markets should react wildly so anything can happen. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the long side if UTIL runs above 1063. The jobs numbers used to prove that the men were hard at work building America. Is this still true? We need some Horslips. Man Who Built America. Wicked flute action. 'And you see the world reflected in his face'.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/8/26; 9:34 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25; go short 6916 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.0%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +2.0%)
1/7/26; 10:16 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
1/5/26; 3:56 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25
1/5/26; 10:02 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
1/4/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25
1/1/26; Begin 2026 Data = +40; signal line is +25; go long 6846; (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number one single point below the signal line. Bears had it on a silver platter today. All they had to do was push the SPX below 6904 but it only got down to 6920.

The imminent turn to the downside is in play and the bears are being handed the stock market tomorrow, if they want it. If UTIL remains down the crapper well under 1063, and the SPX drops only a couple points to below 6919, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The SPX runs higher today, 1/7/26, printing a new all-time high at 6965.69, call it 6966. The all-time closing high is yesterday, 1/6/26, at 6944.82, call it 6945.

The S&P 500 was at the record high at 6966 but the UTIL 1063 trap door opened, utilities fell through, and the SPX fell to 6920 a 46-point retreat. It still was not enough, however, because the bears needed the SPX below 6904 today to flip short.

Bulls must push UTIL back above 1063 pronto or their world will begin crumbling around them.

Thus, bulls need UTIL 1063 and higher to save the day and take stocks higher. Bears need UTIL to remain below 1063, and for the SPX to drop below 6919, and the quant will likely flip short. Bears do not want a gap down move at the opening bell since that will probably delay any potential move to the downside by about 90 minutes. Bears would be best off to see S&P futures flat or down a point or two and then at the opening bell slowly drift lower and lower.

Tomorrow will be interesting. Will the quant flip short, or not? It is all on the line. As utes go, so goes the stock market. Well, is it time for The Drop? 

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/7/26; 10:16 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
1/5/26; 3:56 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after an odd session. The Santa Claus rally is a bust with the period from Christmas Eve to today down marginally. The algorithm wanted to flip short for most of the day but that was difficult to do with stocks rallying to beat the band.

Utilities failed at UTIL 1063.20 but then before the closing bell, the bulls goosed the utes back above to end at 1064. Stocks retreated 20 points from the top but this is not the day that would be expected with the utility trap-door opening, but it did close again. As utilities go, so goes the stock market. Watch UTIL 1063.20 closely to see if it fails again, if so, stocks will likely take the pipe.

If UTIL loses a point and drops below 1063.20, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and then if the SPX drops below 6892, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Bulls must pump utes higher with all their might to save the day, or, they will go down with a sinking ship.

The XRT 85.20 remains in play where stocks will become very sick if it fails. With the up day today, the VIX was also up; that occurs less than 10% of the time so chalk it up to more oddities.

The first full week of trading is off and stumbling. Watch the utilities. We need the Ice Queen, Sue Foley, to start the year off with some blues. Queen Bee. She can tickle those strings.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/5/26; 3:56 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25
1/5/26; 10:02 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
1/4/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the holidays come and go. The bulls remain in charge after an uneventful Friday with the algo number 15 points above the signal line. The robot is tracking utilities, retail stocks, banks and commodities as the main drivers of the US stock market currently.

For the stock market to continue higher, bulls must prove themselves by pushing UTIL, or DJU, higher above 1114.36. UTIL begins the first full week of trading in 2026 at 1078 so the bulls face a formidable task. You can check XLU in the pre-market and individual utility tickers to see if the bulls are coming to play. If utes spike higher, that tells you the bulls are going to keep stocks elevated for a few days or week or so more. If utes lag and stumble sideways, or move lower, that tells you bad things are coming.

UTIL 1062 is another bull/bear line in the sand. If utilities fall through 1062, the stock market is toast and the SPX would be expected to drop 30 or 40 points within a couple hours after the breach and then lead to bad things after that.

Retail stocks are key with XRT 84.97 the line in the sand and price only about a buck away. Banks are important so watch the XLF 53.84 line in the sand and price is a couple percent away. Commodities are key with GTX 3888 the bull/bear demarcation and price begins at 3913.

That is the whole stock market in a nutshell. Will the holiday Nutcracker appear? Bulls need UTIL above 1114 to prove that they still got game and can take stocks higher like all the analysts on Wall Street predict. It will be interesting to see how the utes move out of the gate tomorrow morning.

Bears need UTIL under 1062, and/or XRT under 85, and/or XLF under 54, and/or GTX under 3888, any 1 of the 4 will do, to place the imminent turn in the title line. If any 1 of the 4 fall into the bear camp, and the SPX drops below 6824, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If/when the stock market turns south, you can use these 4 metrics to gauge the seriousness of the pullback.

UTIL 1062 carries a bit more clout than the other three metrics, like a front man in a band is a bit more important to a band as a whole. A wild front man like Mick. Under My Thumb. If UTIL 1062 fails, the stock market goes to Hades. If UTIL 1062 fails, it is likely signaling the start of extremely bad things and a crash would have to be placed on the table.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. It is a new year with new drama ahead.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/4/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25
1/1/26; Begin 2026 Data = +40; signal line is +25; go long 6846; (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new year of trading begins tomorrow at SPX 6846. Utes, commodities and retail stocks are controlling stock market direction currently.

The bull/bear lines in the sand that the algorithm is tracking are UTIL 1088.89, UTIL 1062, GTX 3888 and XRT 84.97.

UTIL begins at 1068 below the key 1089, causing bearishness in the stock market, but is above the 1062, creating bullishness in the stock market. For next week, the 1089 is meaningless and replaced with 1114 so the bull's task becomes far harder. Utilities are going to need to rally strongly tomorrow to start making their way up above 11 hundo to 1114 to prove that the bulls can make new highs in the stock market. If UTIL collapses below 1062, all Hell will break loose in the stock market and a big drop lower would be on the come for equities.

GTX begins at 3916 not too far above the 3888 that guarantees bullish joy. Commodities, in general, need to drop about -1.6%, below 3888, to create stock market negativity.

XRT begins at 85.29 only about a percent away from the 84.97 line in the sand so pay close attention to retail plays such as Scamazon, Target on your back, and Walfart.

The XRT 84.97 and UTIL 1062 are the two metrics most at play currently. Stocks will chop sideways with a slight upward bias with the current status quo. Stocks will catapult higher if UTIL moves above 1089 or next week above 1114.

Stocks are in serious trouble if XRT loses 84.97 and/or if UTIL loses 1062. There will be blood and carnage on Wall Street. If either metric turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX loses 6845 trending lower (only a point below where the SPX begins at 6846), Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it to begin the new year. As utilities and retail stocks go, so goes the US stock market.

The first full week of trading begins on Monday, 1/5/26. The Santa rally that runs from Christmas Eve through the first 2 trading days of this year is negative so it needs to do some catching-up tomorrow and Monday to turn positive, otherwise, there will be no Santa rally.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/4/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/1/26; Begin 2026 Data = +40; signal line is +25; go long 6846; (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.0%)

Keybot the Quant Stock Market Turns in 2025

The SPX chart shows the Keybot the Quant stock market turns in 2025. Equities took the pipe at the start of the year collapsing to the April low. The AI hype, rate-cut joy, QE light, rich people still spending money enjoying the wealth effect, and other happy talk, sends stocks higher with an above-average finish to the year for the SPX up +16.4%.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm program gains +27% and controls the actual trading that generated +35% outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by more than 2x.

The funny thing about 2025 is how many common folks, with money in the stock market, brag and boast about the +16% return this year but when asked what they thought when they had lost -20% to -30% of their money in April, most are clueless. Some do not even know, or remember, that stocks had crashed in the springtime and others immediately proclaim that the stock market always goes up, as it proved in 2025. Wall Street trained the peons well.

For many decades, the US demographics were in our favor. Families kept expanding and so did technology and job opportunities. Productivity drives stock market gains. America is now an old folk's home. The senior Americans are the ones with all the dough in the stock market and that money will be needed for medical bills as the body gives out.

Further, many parents are helping their children get by in life and that will pull money from the market as the years roll forward. A barista at Starbucks, that they should call Tenbucks because that is what you usually spend when you walk in, is not socking away a couple grand per month into the US stock market going forward, as the wealthy folks pull money out.

Think twice about the standard mantra that stocks always go up going forward. Wouldn't it be interesting if the current highs in the SPX at 6900+, or 6900-7250, serve as a top for the next couple decades or more?

Keybot the Quant only sees 1's and 0's so hopefully the emotionless robot will lead the way to another successful year ahead. Happy New Year and Good Luck in 2026. When the Saints Go Marching In. Take it away Louis. There was only one Satchmo.

Keybot the Quant Logs Another Banner Year Gaining +35% Outperforming the Corrupt Hedge Funds

Keybot the Quant logs another banner year gaining +35% outperforming all the corrupt hedge funds on Wall Street. It's fun. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. The benchmark SPX, the S&P 500 Index, the US stock market, gains +16% in 2025, a great return, and the robot outperforms the benchmark by more than 2x. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program gains +27% in 2025 and those commands execute the actual trading that yields +35% for the year.

Stocks collapsed into April but then stage a historic 9-month recovery rally fueled by the AI hype, rate-cut joy, QE light, rich people continuing to spend money, and other happy talk that typically occurs at a major top a la 1999-2000 and 2008-2009. It will be interesting to see if trouble materializes or if the bigtime upside party continues.

The algorithm is re-zeroed to keep the statistics in line. Nothing's changed. The robot did not print any numbers this week except for today with the EOM, EOQ4, EOH2 and EOY2025.

Keybot the Quant remains long in SSO starting at 57.92 and the 2026 year of trading begins at SPX 6846.

There were only 24 stock market turns (long to short or short to long) in 2025 a very low number compared to the last few years. There are usually about 35 turns in a given year and two years ago there were 40 turns. There was not as much sideways chop in 2025 until the last few months of the year. Instead, generally, it was a down year to start the first 4 months and then the last 8 months were up.

Trading is all about 'what have you done for me lately'. The past is over and it is time to move on with a new year where everything starts from scratch again. Utilities, commodities and retail stocks are controlling stock market direction as the new year begins. Welcome 2026. Guy Lombardo and Auld Lang Syne.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/4/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/1/26; Begin 2026 Data = +40; signal line is +25; go long 6846; (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.0%)

Keybot the Quant Begins 2026 on the Long Side from SPX 6846

All Data 0%. Begin 2026

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

START 2026 PROGRAM

Begin Printing

Mark and Set

Date Stamp 1/1/26; 4:10 AM EST

START 2026 PROGRAM

Copyright Enforced. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025. 2026. Keybot the Quant. The Keystone Speculator. K E Stone. All Rights Reserved.

End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End

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END OF 2025 RESULTS:

The SPX (S&P 500) Benchmark Index Gains an Above-Average +16.4% in 2025

(SPX Started 2025 at 5882 and Ended at 6846 Catapulting 964 Points Higher Repeating the Same Big Outperformances to the Upside as 2023 and 2024; Bull Market 3 Years)

Keybot the Quant Algorithm (Computer Program Only) During 2025: +26.9%

KEYBOT THE QUANT ACTUAL TRADING RETURN FOR 2025 INCLUDING ALL COMMISSIONS, COSTS AND FEES: +34.6%

Keybot the Quant has never printed a losing year

Keybot the Quant is a long-short algorithm that oscillates between a bullish (long) position and a bearish (short) position seeking the smoothest path through the trading year using the S&P 500 (SPX; the US stock market) as the benchmark comparison index

Number of Position Changes (Long to Short or Short to Long) During 2025: 24

1/1/2025	5882	Go Short	4:20 AM	PSQ	37.40
1/2/2025	5928	Cover Short	10:07 AM	PSQ	37.08
1/2/2025	5928	Go Long	10:07 AM	DIA	427.69
1/2/2025	5899	Sell Long	11:00 AM	DIA	426.29
1/2/2025	5899	Go Short	11:00 AM	DOG	26.50
1/6/2025	5988	Cover Short	9:36 AM	DOG	26.40
1/6/2025	5988	Go Long	9:36 AM	QQQ	524.60
1/7/2025	5955	Sell Long	10:20 AM	QQQ	520.66
1/7/2025	5955	Go Short	10:20 AM	RWM	18.53
1/15/2025	5920	Cover Short	9:36 AM	RWM	18.47
1/15/2025	5920	Go Long	9:36 AM	IVV	592.76
2/21/2025	6050	Sell Long	1:02 PM	IVV	606.52
2/21/2025	6050	Go Short	1:02 PM	SDS	18.74
3/17/2025	5667	Cover Short	1:35 PM	SDS	21.28
3/17/2025	5667	Go Long	1:35 PM	SSO	84.79
3/28/2025	5643	Sell Long	10:11 AM	SSO	83.68
3/28/2025	5643	Go Short	10:11 AM	SDS	21.25
4/2/2025	5656	Cover Short	11:27 AM	SDS	21.16
4/2/2025	5656	Go Long	11:27 AM	DDM	92.15
4/3/2025	5488	Sell Long	9:36 AM	DDM	87.50
4/3/2025	5488	Go Short	9:36 AM	SH	45.52
4/22/2025	5254	Cover Short	10.41 AM	SH	46.93
4/22/2025	5254	Go Long	10:41 AM	SPY	524.32
5/30/2025	5859	Sell Long	12:31 PM	SPY	584.83
5/30/2025	5859	Go Short	12:31 PM	SDS	18.75
6/2/2025	5925	Cover Short	2:23 PM	SDS	18.34
6/2/2025	5925	Go Long	2:23 PM	SPY	591.32
7/30/2025	6348	Sell Long	3:00 PM	SPY	632.85
7/30/2025	6348	Go Short	3:00 PM	SDS	15.99
8/22/2025	6448	Cover Short	10:02 AM	SDS	15.60
8/22/2025	6448	Go Long	10:02 AM	SSO	104.86
10/10/2025	6692	Sell Long	11:04 AM	SSO	112.20
10/10/2025	6692	Go Short	11:04 AM	SDS	14.47
10/20/2025	6711	Cover Short	9:37 AM	SDS	14.38
10/20/2025	6711	Go Long	9:37 AM	SSO	112.20
10/29/2025	6856	Sell Long	2:41 PM	SSO	117.25
10/29/2025	6856	Go Short	2:41 PM	QID	19.51
11/10/2025	6805	Cover Short	9:36 AM	QID	20.18
11/10/2025	6805	Go Long	9:36 AM	SSO	115.31
11/18/2025	6637	Sell Long	9:47 AM	SSO	109.69
11/18/2025	6637	Go Short	9:47 AM	QID	21.65
11/24/2025	6672	Cover Short	10:33 AM	QID	21.48
11/24/2025	6672	Go Long	10:33 AM	QLD	67.64
12/16/2025	6788	Sell Long	9:46 AM	QLD	69.05
12/16/2025	6788	Go Short	9:46 AM	SDS	70.68
12/18/2025	6797	Cover Short	10:29 AM	SDS	70.48
12/18/2025	6797	Go Long	10:29 AM	SSO	57.31
1/1/2026	6846	Sell Long	4:10 AM	SSO	57.92

 

Date – SPX – Position – Time Stamp – ETF – Price

Begin Printing Trade Data Entries Exits Reverse Order

FINAL 2025 RESULTS

Mark and Set

Date Stamp 1/1/26; 4:10 AM EST

End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End

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1/1/26; Algorithm Zeroed for 2026 Data EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2025 = +40; signal line is +25; go long 6846; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 Final = +16.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2025 Final = +26.9%)(Actual results this trade = +1.1%; Actual results for 2025 Final = +34.6%)
12/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25
12/23/25; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +25
12/22/25; 11:06 AM EST = +39; signal line is +24
12/22/25; 9:36 AM EST = +23; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:16 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:02 AM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/18/25; 12:39 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/18/25; 12:20 AM EST = +11; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/18/25; 11:22 AM EST = +25; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
12/18/25; 10:29 AM EST = +41; signal line is +25; go long 6797 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +15.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +26.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2025 = +33.5%)