Monday, March 1, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after a wild snap-back rally to begin the week. Volatility drops so stocks pop. VIX fell through the key 24.21 bull-bear line in the sand so the bulls throw confetti.

Utilities are jammed higher but bulls are unable to push UTIL back up through the trap-door at 824.20. Also, the bull party was in full swing but retail stocks decided to stay in the bear camp with RTH remaining under 158.80.

So the stage remains set. If either UTIL or RTH turn bullish, either one would do, consider the imminent turn to the bull side to be in play and if SPX then runs above 3915 heading higher, Keybot will likely flip long. Tuesday is a huge day.

Bears need VIX above 24.21 or they got nothing. Bears must wrestle the Fed's jackboot from Uncle Vix's throat and allow VIX to jump up which would send stocks lower.

Thus, the bears path to victory is higher volatility and VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. The bulls need higher utilities and/or retail stocks (think AMZN) to carry the stock market to victory and flip the model to the long side.

Volatility, retail stocks and utilities are all that matter; they alone dictate stock market direction for Tuesday.

3/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
3/1/21; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +51
2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +51

Sunday, February 28, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the utilities trap door opens and a big sucking sound is heard. Hopefully, yinz had your helmets on. The stock market works itself into frenzy, it builds, it builds, and then the crescendo. The bears are in charge of the stock market direction with the algo number 33 points below the signal line. February ends and March begins.

The failure in the utilities is serious business. It tells you whether the pullback in stocks, that should begin anytime now, has long-lasting legs, or not. The failure of UTIL at the 829-ish level is a huge stake through the heart of the US stock market and forecasts major downside in the weeks and months forward. Bulls need utes to recover pronto.

The bulls and bears have drawn the lines in the sand for the war ahead. The bears take stocks lower with weaker retail stocks (think AMZN), weaker utilities and higher volatility is their general. The bulls are trying to stop the carnage with stronger chips, stronger banks and stronger copper is their general.

Bears need SOX below 2985 and the stock market takes another leg lower. Bears need XLF below 30.50 and that will cause a selloff in equities. Bears need CPER below 23.00 to cause market mayhem. SOX is at 3068 so focus on that as a key market signal for Monday. Chips in general will dictate the path forward. If semiconductors are weak pre-market, bears are going to slash. Bulls will be happy if they see buoyant semi's.

Bulls need VIX below 24.20 to signal a stop to the stock market selling. Bulls need RTH above 159 and UTIL above 821. Bulls likely need at least 2 of the 3 parameters to flip the stock market long. 

It appears to be a game of chips versus volatility; bears need to stab semi's in the belly while bulls need to tackle Uncle Vix and keep him down with their jackboots on his throat.

Now we see what the bears got. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

3/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +51
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +52
2/25/21; 11:52 AM EST = +18; signal line is +53
2/25/21; 11:43 AM EST = +32; signal line is +54
2/24/21; 10:21 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side. The bears are in charge with the algo number 5 points below the signal line. Only three parameters matter; volatility, retail stocks and utilities.

Bears need VIX above 24.14 and stocks will fall apart. If UTIL loses 821.49, the stock market will go into free fall. Crash helmets are required.

Bulls need RTH above 159.57 and the upside stock market party is on. The selling in equities will immediately stop. If RTH moves above 159.57, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX moves above 3929 trending higher, Keybot will likely flip long. The SPX begins at 3925 so bulls only need 4 or 5 points in the futures.

It is a very fascinating juncture on top of all the odd price action already occurring the last couple months and more. These are special times and one of these days may be a very special day. It is a game of pennies with the parameters so either side can win in tomorrow's (Thursday) trade. VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. 

2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/24/21; 10:21 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 9:41 AM EST = +34; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 9:16 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 8:50 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 1:18 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short this morning at SPX 3849 after volatility spikes higher. Retail stocks add extra downside fuel but by the end of the day volatility drops so stocks pop. The bears are in control of stock market direction but the algo number is only 4 measly points below the signal line. Bears will have to do better than that.

Bears need VIX above 24.17 or they got buptkis. Bears will also create carnage if UTIL loses 821.50 and/or SOX below 2985.

Bulls need stronger retail stocks and the selling will be over. Bulls need RTH above 159.77 to signal the all-clear for equities.

The battle is volatility versus retail stocks. If VIX pops above 24.17, the downside selling begins in force. If SOX loses 2985, the bottom falls out. If RTH moves above 159.77, bulls are fine and stocks will recover.

On the last trade, the algo program gains +2% and the actual trading gains +4%. On the year, which is only 7 weeks old, the S&P 500 benchmark index, the US stock market, is up +3%. The quant program is up +5% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +10%. Quick, Harry, pull the plug for Keybot out of the wall. That's +10% so let's go to the beach for the next 10 months. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining n the 2x leveraged ETF's.

Powell testifies before the House tomorrow; he flapped dovish wings today as expected and saved the stock market off the lows. The RTH is basically Scamazon stock so watch VIX from 3 AM EST on and see where AMZN is at pre-market and these two will tell you the story for hump day. AMZN is down marginally in late trading this evening.

2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/21; 1:18 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +51; go short 3849; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +2.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +4.9%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2021 = +9.5%)
2/23/21; 4:03 AM EST = +50; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
2/22/21; 8:39 AM EST = +64; signal line is +50
2/22/21; 7:35 AM EST = +50; signal line is +48
2/22/21; 3:58 AM EST = +64; signal line is +47
2/22/21; 3:06 AM EST = +50; signal line is +45
2/21/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +43
2/18/21; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +42
2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +41
2/12/21; 1:07 PM EST = +64; signal line is +40
2/12/21; 12:59 PM EST = +80; signal line is +38
2/12/21; 12:45 PM EST = +64; signal line is +36
2/12/21; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +34
2/8/21; 9:36 AM EST = +80; signal line is +33
2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +31
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +30
2/3/21; 10:47 AM EST = +52; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 10:32 AM EST = +38; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 3:06 AM EST = +36; signal line is +29
2/2/21; 1:04 PM EST = +22; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
2/2/21; 11:43 AM EST = +38; signal line is +30
2/2/21; 11:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
2/2/21; 11:17 AM EST = +38; signal line is +32
2/2/21; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
2/1/21; 2:18 PM EST = +38; signal line is +34; go long 3779; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +3.0%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2021 = +5.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is 1 point below the signal line so the robot is in position to flip short as long as all the internal parameters latch after the opening bell. If the SPX drops below 3875, Keybot will likely flip short. S&P futures are down -14 with the VIX at 24.53.

VIX 24.17 is the bull/bear line in the sand. It tells you the market story today. The bulls need VIX below 24.17 to regain control of the stock market. Bears win big if the VIX remains above 24.17.

Bears need weaker retail stocks and HD just laid an earnings egg (price down). Bears need RTH below 159.80 and price is only 34 pennies away. RTH turning bearish will guarantee sustainable bearishness ahead.

Did you see the high drama with utilities yesterday? UTIL falls to test the critical 821.50 support, but bounces. The stock market could have crashed if it had failed and this is back on the table today. Expect at least a significant leg lower in stocks if UTIL 821.50 fails.

Bulls need lower volatility. Bears need SPX below 3875 to flip the model short which is on tap in the futures. A gap-down is not good for bears since it may trigger a timer that will not allow the quant to flip bearish for about 90 minutes.

It looks good for bears but Fed Chairman Powell speaks in a couple hours and he just picked-up his dove suit at the cleaners. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM EST.

2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/21; 4:03 AM EST = +50; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
2/22/21; 8:39 AM EST = +64; signal line is +50
2/22/21; 7:35 AM EST = +50; signal line is +48
2/22/21; 3:58 AM EST = +64; signal line is +47

Monday, February 22, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long in these historic stock market times. The week is off to an active start with the quant already printing two numbers. There must be excitement occurring under the surface. The bulls are in charge of the stock market direction with the algo number 17 points above the signal line.

VIX 24.24 is the bull/bear line in the sand. VIX is trading at 24-ish now after popping earlier. Bears need VIX above 24.24 to create market trouble. Bulls win if VIX remains sub 24.24. If stocks sell off but the VIX does not move above 24.24, the bears got nothing and stocks will turn around and rally.

Bears need UTIL below 820 which may send the stock market into free fall. Bears need RTH below 159.50 which will exacerbate a sell off.

Bulls need higher utilities and to send UTIL above 911 which is a tall ask.

Watch to see if the VIX jogs above and below the key 24.24 level. If this occurs 2 or 3 times today, that is a signal telling you that the stock market is ready to head south and the robot is likely getting ready to flip short.

If VIX simply moves above 24.24 creating market turmoil, watch RTH and UTIL. If either one of them turn bearish as well, any 2 of these 3 parameters would do, Keybot will likely flip short.  If any 1 of the 3 parameters turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be on the table.

The quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one tomorrow morning and the other on Friday morning. S&P futures are down -28 with the VIX at 24.00 about 3-1/2 hours before the opening bell on the East Coast.

2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/22/21; 3:58 AM EST = +64; signal line is +47
2/22/21; 3:06 AM EST = +50; signal line is +45
2/21/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +43
2/18/21; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +42
2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +41

Wednesday, February 17, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the epic stock market action continues. The quant has not printed any numbers as yet this week and the pre-scheduled number is tomorrow. The bulls are feeling good about the stock market comfortably ahead by 23 points. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3950.43.

The quant is tracking three key parameters that would help bears; UTIL 820, RTH 159.10 and VIX 24.22. If any one of the three fail, you will notice substantive selling in the stock market. If 2 of the 3 fail, consider the imminent turn to the bear side to be in play and if the SPX then drops below 3924, Keybot will likely flip short. The SPX begins at 3933 and futures are flat. VIX is at 21.17. If UTIL 820 fails, the stock market may crash.

The bulls need UTIL above 882 to prove that they can take stocks higher.

2/21/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/18/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +41

Monday, February 15, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 23 points above the signal line. The bulls are in charge of stock market direction. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3937.23 and all-time record closing high at 3934.83.

The quant is tracking utes, volatility, retail stocks and copper. Lower copper will help bears.

The bulls need stronger utilities. Bulls need UTIL above 881.76 and this number is in play all week. US stocks are not trading today due to the Presidents Day holiday. Trading resumes tomorrow morning. UTIL begins at 857.10. On Friday, UTIL lost the 858 palindrome creating the stock market weakness. During the last 65-minute trading block, the Fed saved the day jamming volatility lower sending stocks to the moon for a record finish, otherwise, stocks would have fell apart into the closing bell.

Bears can turn the tables on the bulls with UTIL below 821, VIX above 24.55 and/or RTH below 159. UTIL 821 is extremely important; if it fails, the US stock market may crash. VIX has a 19-handle so bears got some work to do to boost volatility higher. If 1 of the 3 turn bearish, consider the caution flag to be out. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play, and if the SPX then falls below 3906 trending lower, Keybot the Quant would likely flip short.

UTIL 882, UTIL 821, VIX 24.55 and RTH 159 are all that matters. You do not even have to watch the stock market. Simply watch these four parameters to determine the path ahead for equities. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Thursday morning. The bulls want to rock 'n roll all night, and party every day.

2/21/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/18/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +41
2/12/21; 1:07 PM EST = +64; signal line is +40

Friday, February 12, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and has been quiet all week but springs into life this afternoon.  UTIL failed at the 858 palindrome. This creates the stock market sogginess. And it is a strong failure. UTIL 821 is a trap-door in the stock market; if 821 fails, the US stock market may crash. This will be fun on tap next week. Markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day.

Bears need higher volatility if they want to growl. Bears need VIX above 24.55.

The SPX all-time record high this week is 3931.50.

2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/12/21; 1:07 PM EST = +64; signal line is +40
2/12/21; 12:59 PM EST = +80; signal line is +38
2/12/21; 12:45 PM EST = +64; signal line is +36
2/12/21; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +34
2/8/21; 9:36 AM EST = +80; signal line is +33

Thursday, February 11, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and the quant is quiet all week long, so far. The bears are sleeping. The algo is tracking volatility and utilities. Bears need VIX above 24.63 (now at 21.666) which would immediately halt the stock market rally.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3931.50 on Wednesday, 2/10/21 and new all-time record closing high at 3915.59 on Monday, 2/8/21.

Bears need UTIL below 858 (now at 871). For next week, the bulls need UTIL above 882 so it is going to have to start making a move towards this goal post. UTIL must be above 882 by 4 PM EST tomorrow, otherwise, it tells you that stocks will be weak come Monday. If utes rally today and tomorrow, it proves that the bulls got game. If utes languish today and tomorrow and begin slumping over, like Aunt Mildred after she eats too much cake, the rally is likely over. If UTIL falls through the 858 palindrome, the stock market rally is definitely over.

The bulls are in control. These are epic times. The price action remains erratic and unstable. Watch VIX 24.63 and UTIL 858 since they are the two rudders steering the stock market ship today.

2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/12/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/8/21; 9:36 AM EST = +80; signal line is +33

Monday, February 8, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bears jump into the ring this morning and promptly run head first into the bulls fist knocking them unconscious. The bulls walk to victory to begin the week and remain in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 47 points above the signal line. Stocks run euphorically higher.

The quant is tracking utes and volatility, and copper, as the three key parameters impacting market direction currently. All three are in the bull camp, hence, the US stock market, the S&P 500 Index, prints a new all-time record high at 3915.77 and a new all-time record closing high at 3915.59 today, Monday, 2/8/21.

Bears need UTIL below the 858 palindrome, the VIX above 24.60 and copper futures down about -3.5%. Any one of these turning bearish will immediately stop the stock market rally and send equities sideways. Two of them will create selling action in stocks. All three turning bearish will send the stock market strongly lower and likely flip the model short.

That is a big drop to ask for with copper but you never know. UTIL and VIX may turn bearish over the next day or two. Pay attention to UTIL 858 which would tell you the upside in stocks is likely over.

2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/12/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/8/21; 9:36 AM EST = +80; signal line is +33
2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +31

Sunday, February 7, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls pump stocks higher on a weak jobs number, progress on the fiscal stimulus bill and JNJ vaccine happy talk. The jobs market has finally stabilized after the March/April 2020 shock. Obviously, it is not happy times for the 10 million unemployed, and 10 million gig and part-time workers that are sitting on the sidelines, watching the wealthy class become richer.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number 33 points above the signal line and that margin will likely become even larger out of the gate tomorrow. For the week ahead, utilities, volatility and copper are key.

Bulls need UTIL above 857.77 this week to create stock market strength. UTIL ends last week at 872 so this is going to help create additional underlying market strength after the opening bell on Monday. For the following week, the 858 will be meaningless and replaced with 881.76. Thus, bears need UTIL under 858 pronto or they will be slapped around. By the end of the week, the bulls must push UTIL above 882 to guarantee sustainable stock market joy going forward. Utes will tell you a lot this week with price starting in between these two key levels. Bears will be happy sub 858 while bulls are ecstatic if UTIL moves above 882.

Bears need VIX above 24.84 (now at 20.87). Bears need CPER below 21.76 (now at 22.45).

The bulls are singing songs and carrying on without a care in the world. Keybot prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning. The bulls say let the good times roll.

2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/12/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +31
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +30
2/3/21; 10:47 AM EST = +52; signal line is +29

Thursday, February 4, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 23 points above the signal line. The quant has been active this week so something may be going on. The bulls came to play pumping copper and smashing volatility sending stocks higher.

The bulls are flexing their muscles but to prove they can take stocks higher they must push UTIL above 894 (now at 860) a formidable task.

Bears need higher volatility, lower copper, lower retail stocks, lower banks and lower chips. Bears need VIX above 24.96 (now trading at 23.14) with S&P futures up +3. Futures and vol are higher so one of them is wrong (either futures drop to prove volatility correct or vol drops to prove futures correct). Bears need CPER below 21.76 (now at 21.99). Bears need a -1.1% drop in copper futures but copper is sitting flat.

Bears likely need both vol and copper to turn bearish, and that can easily happen since the numbers are dancing near the bull-bear lines in the sand, and for the SPX to drop below 3817, for Keybot the Quant to flip short. If either parameter turns bearish, consider the imminent turn notation to be in the title line.

The SPX begins the Thursday session at 3830. The 3848 is an important resistance level which would tell you that the bulls have legs. Watch copper and vol; they will tell you what you need to know.

2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/3/21; 10:47 AM EST = +52; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 10:32 AM EST = +38; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 3:06 AM EST = +36; signal line is +29
2/2/21; 1:04 PM EST = +22; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and prints 5 numbers today. The quant is champing at the bit to flip back to the short side but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. The odd price behavior continues. Copper fails into the bear camp but stocks rally; historic weirdness. The VIX comes down to test Keybot's bull-bear line in the sand but could not move below. Tomorrow will tell the tale. It is a knock-down drag-out bull-bear battle.

Keybot the Quant wants to flip short and will likely do so if the SPX falls below 3792 trending lower. SPX begins hump day at 3826 so bears will need to see S&P futures down -34 points and they will be good to go.

Copper and volatility will immediately tell you the story for hump day. Both are in the bear camp but only by pennies. The bulls need CPER above 21.76 and/or VIX below 25.02. The bulls will celebrate good times with one of these and two would be an upside orgy for the record books.

If both CPER and VIX remain in the bear camp, stocks are going to fall apart.

Watch SPX 3792, CPER 21.76 and VIX 25.02.The direction of copper futures overnight will tell you the story on the red metal and volatility begins trading at 3 AM EST.

2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/2/21; 1:04 PM EST = +22; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
2/2/21; 11:43 AM EST = +38; signal line is +30
2/2/21; 11:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
2/2/21; 11:17 AM EST = +38; signal line is +32
2/2/21; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
2/1/21; 2:18 PM EST = +38; signal line is +34; go long 3779; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +3.0%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2021 = +5.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull camp Monday afternoon at SPX 3779. Banks and retail stocks push the stock market higher and their jog moves are enough to push the algo into the bull camp. The quant is 4 points above the signal line. The same characters are in play.

Bulls win going forward if they push the VIX below 25.24. VIX is trading now, in the early morning on the East Coast at 27.45 with S&P futures +33. A sustainable rally will be confirmed if VIX drops below 25.24. If bulls are unable to push VIX below 25.24, stocks will roll over and sell off.

Bears need to attack banks and retail stocks reversing the Monday joy. Bears need XLF below 29.09 and RTH below 157.74. Everything is walking a tightrope.

Bears need weaker copper and must push CPER below 21.73. Yesterday, the bears were almost there but then the bulls jumped on retail stocks pumping them to heaven and copper followed. 

So the stage is set. Bulls win big if VIX drops below 25.24. Bears will stop the upside rally if XLF drops below 29.09, RTH below 157.74 and/or CPER below 21.73. Any downside in the stock market can be gauged by these three numbers.

Velly intalesting. Bears need about a -0.8% drop in copper futures and she is teasing right now. If any of the three parameters XLF, RTH or CPER turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 3726, Keybot will likely whipsaw back to the short side. That is a formidable task for today. Bears may try to lay the groundwork today and give it a go tomorrow. If the bulls succeed with lower vol, they will probably maintain elevated stocks for a few days.

On the last trade, that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading each gain about a percent. On the year thus far, the SPX benchmark index is up a percent. The Keybot the Quant program is up +3% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up almost +6% so far in 2021. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO remaining in the leveraged 2x ETF's.

2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/1/21; 2:18 PM EST = +38; signal line is +34; go long 3779; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +3.0%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2021 = +5.6%)
2/1/21; 1:52 PM EST = +38; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
2/1/21; 12:12 PM EST = +22; signal line is +36
2/1/21; 11:47 AM EST = +38; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
2/1/21; 11:07 AM EST = +22; signal line is +38
2/1/21; 10:56 AM EST = +6; signal line is +39
2/1/21; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +41
1/31/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +6; signal line is +43
1/29/21; 12:21 PM EST = +6; signal line is +45
1/29/21; 12:19 PM EST = +22; signal line is +47
1/29/21; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +48
1/28/21; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +49
1/27/21; 3:45 PM EST = +22; signal line is +50
1/27/21; 3:30 PM EST = +6; signal line is +51
1/27/21; 3:28 PM EST = +22; signal line is +53
1/27/21; 3:19 PM EST = +38; signal line is +55
1/27/21; 2:22 PM EST = +22; signal line is +55
1/27/21; 5:37 AM EST = +38; signal line is +57
1/26/21; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +57
1/25/21; 12:40 PM EST = +51; signal line is +57
1/25/21; 12:28 PM EST = +37; signal line is +57
1/25/21; 11:49 AM EST = +51; signal line is +58
1/25/21; 11:08 AM EST = +37; signal line is +58
1/25/21; 11:07 AM EST = +51; signal line is +60; go short 3812; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +1.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = +3.7%; Actual results for 2021 = +4.3%)

Monday, February 1, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Bulls are flexing their muscles but it is just a bunch of posing so far. Banks jump into the bull camp so that provides the upside juice. XLF is above 29.09; bears need it back below as soon as possible.

RTH remains bearish and VIX is over 31 for most of the morning; 30.37 now. The bull move is not impressive but the day is young.

Meanwhile, bears stealthily slap copper in the face and roll it in the alley. Bears need CPER below 21.72 and price is only pennies away at 21.84. This is about a -0.6% drop in copper futures and the latest print is down -0.3%. Copper weakened after this morning's message. If copper fails, stocks will be in trouble.

The SPX rallies 43 points but the internals are not agreeing with the joy so far. Bulls begin verifying the rally if RTH moves above 157.65. 

2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/1/21; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +41
1/31/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +6; signal line is +43

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 37 points below the signal line. The bears growled into the weekend but the bulls are back in town this morning with S&P futures up +32.  Banks and retail stocks create the mayhem Friday afternoon so those would be the two that would reverse if the bulls got game.

Bears need weaker copper to create more stock market negativity. A -0.9% drop in copper futures would do it but copper is rallying up +0.4% so the red metal will need to drop -1.3% from the current price to provide bear fuel.

Bears need UTIL below 822.43 which is a trap-door for stocks. Brutal mayhem occurs in the stock market if this level fails.

Bulls need XLF above 29.09 and RTH above 157.77 to try and right the ship. These may be doable considering this morning's joy. Congress is trying to reach agreement on a stimulus bill so futures are higher after the negotiators share a pizza on the weekend. At least all humans can agree on one thing; pizza.

Thus, if banks and retail stocks turn bullish (watch AMZN), consider the caution flag to be in play. If the VIX drops below 25.00, the bulls are going to celebrate with a big move higher and the quant will likely flip long. VIX is trading now at 31.51.

If stocks rally today, the first day of February trading, catapulting to the stratosphere, it does not mean buptkis unless the VIX drops below 25.00. The stock market can rally and look strong all it wants, but if the VIX does not drop below 25.00, stocks will clutch their chest and fall to their knees, and eventually keel over, going forward.

Bulls win with XLF 29.09, RTH 157.77 and VIX 25.00. Tic-tac-toe. Keybot will probably flip long immediately if this happens (all 3).

Bears win with about a -1% drop in copper futures and UTIL under 822.43 which would create a disastrous outcome for the stock market. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. Tomorrow is Groundhog Day and Punxsutawney Phil is only a stone's throw away from the quant's hideaway. We find out if there is 6 more weeks of winter, or not.

2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
1/31/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +6; signal line is +43
1/29/21; 12:21 PM EST = +6; signal line is +45

Saturday, January 30, 2021

President Trump's Final 80 Days: The Real-Time 80-Day Chronology of the Historic 2020 US Presidential Election, Biden Win, Trump Loss, Georgia Runoffs, Capitol Hill Riot, Impeachment & Inauguration 11-2-20 through 1-20-21




President Trump's Final 80 Days

The 80-day period between the US 2020 presidential election and the inauguration is the most extraordinary period in American history in decades. Relive the drama in real-time from Election Eve through Inauguration Day 11/2/20 through 1/20/21. What a crazy ride. Feel the wind in your hair. Experience the daily zeitgeist.

This is not boring revisionist history telling; it is the real-time daily raw political action unfolding in front of your face. After four days of vote counting drama, President Biden wins the election on 11/7/20 and is named 46th POTUS. Ballots are in suitcases. President Trump refuses to concede. The pandemic rages on. It is pandemonium.

Trump continues the election fraud saga after the Electoral College Certification on 12/14/20. The Georgia runoff elections on 1/5/21 create a twist in the saga. Then the fateful day occurs; 1/6/21.

Relive the Trump Rally and Capitol Hill Riot in real-time; the QAnon Shaman, Zip Tie Man and tragically, five dead bodies. The riot, and republicans contesting the electoral college votes from several states, pushes the Congressional certification of the Biden win from 1/6/21 into the wee hours of the morning on 1/7/21.

The Trump impeachment follows on 1/13/21 and then the Trump departure and Biden inauguration on 1/20/21. It is a remarkable 80 days of American history chronicled in detail in real-time including Lady Gaga’s gold microphone. The book is an easy read and you will not be disappointed.

This book is for armchair political groupies, historians, teachers, students, journalists, reporters, writers, speakers, researchers, politicians, public officials, political hacks, television pundits, non-fiction enthusiasts and anyone that wants to relive the 80 crazy days of drama from the 2020 US election in early November 2020 through the Biden inauguration in mid-January 2021.

Friday, January 29, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Market participants are Riders on the Storm. The quant prints three numbers thus far today including the pre-scheduled number. Retail stocks and banks are thwacked which creates the stock market weakness. Bears are trying to pound copper to create a mini-crash before the bell.

Bulls need either XLF above 29.10 or RTH above 157.77 pronto. Either one will stop the market selling and at least stabilize stocks sideways into the weekend. Bulls can turn the tables if they pull both retail stocks and banks back into their camp before the closing bell. Bulls must not let copper fail, if they do, they will need a medic.

Bears need CPER (copper) below 21.72, and its only pennies away, and stocks will be flushed hard into the closing bell. 

1/31/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/21; 12:21 PM EST = +6; signal line is +45
1/29/21; 12:19 PM EST = +22; signal line is +47
1/29/21; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +48
1/28/21; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +49

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Hump day was an active day for the algo printing out six numbers. The broad stock market direction is currently controlled by volatility, utilities, banks, retail stocks and copper so there are many moving parts. Price action remains erratic and unstable.

The bears are in charge of market direction with the algo number 11 points below the signal line. S&P futures are down -36 and the VIX is at 33.98 about 3-1/2 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street for Friday.

Bears win going forward with weaker banks and retail stocks. Bears need XLF under 29.11 and/or RTH below 158.00. One of the two turning bearish will cause a noticeable leg lower in the stock market and if both fail, stocks will flush lower. Bears need weaker copper and CPER below 21.74 will create trouble and that reflects about a -1.4% drop in copper futures that are down -0.3% now. So watch copper.

Futures are down so if they hold the negative scenario is on tap for stocks at the start. As equities drop watch XLF and RTH. If one of the two turns bearish, the downside is sustainable going forward. If stocks drop but these two remain in the bull camp, the stock market will recover and rally.

Bulls win with stronger utilities and lower volatility. Bulls need UTIL above 885 pronto to salvage the bull path forward. This is for today; It gets tougher, bulls. For all of next week, the 885 is meaningless and replaced by 893.68, call it 894. Thus, by 4 PM EST today, UTIL must be above 894, a formidable task, otherwise, utes will continue to contribute negatively to the stock market next week.

If utilities begin dropping like a rock, watch UTIL 822.50 which is a trap-door in the stock market. If UTIL collapses and drops below 822-823, look-out. The stock market would be in position to crash big. At the least, if the trap-door opens, the SPX will likely drop from 20 to 40 handles within an hour. The crash scenario would obviously be a few hundred points of carnage that occurs from there forward.

Bulls win with lower volatility and desperately need the VIX below 24.80 to signal the all-clear for stocks. The Fed lost control of volatility and is trying to wrestle it back.

Summing up all that windbag stuff, bulls will stop the carnage with VIX below 24.80 or UTIL above 885-894. If either occurs, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play perhaps around SPX 3830.

Bears need XLF below 29.11 and/or RTH below 158.00 and/or CPER below 21.74 to create carnage on Wall Street. The degree of stock market selling is directly correlated to how banks, retail stocks (AMZN) and copper perform today.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning shortly after the opening bell.

1/31/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/21; 10:00 AM EST =
1/28/21; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +49
1/27/21; 3:45 PM EST = +22; signal line is +50
1/27/21; 3:30 PM EST = +6; signal line is +51
1/27/21; 3:28 PM EST = +22; signal line is +53
1/27/21; 3:19 PM EST = +38; signal line is +55
1/27/21; 2:22 PM EST = +22; signal line is +55
1/27/21; 5:37 AM EST = +38; signal line is +57
1/26/21; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +57
1/25/21; 12:40 PM EST = +51; signal line is +57

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls and bears fight over utilities and volatility dictating the path ahead for the stock market. The bears are in charge with the algo number only 6 points below the signal line.

Bears need VIX above 24.60 to wreak havoc in markets and volatility will begin trading shortly from VIX 23.19. Weaker banks and copper will also create market carnage. Bears need XLF below 29.23 and CPER below 21.75. Both of these parameters reflect about a -3% drop. Copper futures are down more than -1% currently so another couple percent lower in copper is going to cause trouble for the US stock market.

Bulls are hanging their hat on utes. Bulls must push UTIL above 884.52. UTIL jumped strongly higher yesterday and sits at 872 within striking distance. Utilities typically move higher as yields move lower. Bulls will throw confetti if UTIL moves above 884 since stocks will begin rallying again. Consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play for the quant if you see UTIL pop above 884.

Bears win big and stock market ugliness will appear if VIX moves above 24.60. Bulls win big and stocks will stabilize and begin moving higher if UTIL moves above 884. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning shortly after the opening bell.

1/29/21; 10:00 AM EST =
1/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
1/25/21; 12:40 PM EST = +51; signal line is +57
1/25/21; 12:28 PM EST = +37; signal line is +57
1/25/21; 11:49 AM EST = +51; signal line is +58

Monday, January 25, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning at SPX 3812. Utilities remain weak which cast a pall upon the markets. The VIX poking up through 24.64 caused the flush lower in equities. Stocks recover and the bulls just pull volatility lower back into their camp. Bears need VIX 24.64 and higher to create market carnage. Weaker copper and banks would also help, say a couple percent loss in either will create a down leg in the broad stock market. First thing is first, however, so the bears have to move VIX above 24.64.

The Fed meeting is this week and presser on Wednesday and stocks usually rally into the Fed decision since they always decide to print more money. 

On the last trade, the algo program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains nearly four percent. The benchmark S&P 500 Index is up +1.5% this year thus far. The algo program is up a couple percent this year thus far and the actual trading is up over +4% thus far. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the double-leveraged ETF's. Watch VIX 24.64; it is all that matters today and early this week. VIX is at 24.11. The Fed's jackboots are on Uncle VIX's neck right now holding him down so the wealthy can enjoy higher stock prices.

1/31/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/21; 10:00 AM EST =
1/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
1/25/21; 11:49 AM EST = +51; signal line is +58
1/25/21; 11:08 AM EST = +37; signal line is +58
1/25/21; 11:07 AM EST = +51; signal line is +60; go short 3812; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +1.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = +3.7%; Actual results for 2021 = +4.3%)
1/24/21; 7:00 PM EST = +51; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long
1/21/21; 9:00 AM EST = +51; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
1/19/21; 9:36 AM EST = +51; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
1/17/21; 7:00 PM EST = +67; signal line is +62
1/15/21; 10:00 AM EST = +67; signal line is +62
1/12/21; 1:17 PM EST = +67; signal line is +61
1/12/21; 12:56 PM EST = +51; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
1/12/21; 12:48 PM EST = +67; signal line is +62
1/12/21; 12:12 PM EST = +51; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains long
1/10/21; 7:00 PM EST = +67; signal line is +63
1/8/21; 9:00 AM EST = +67; signal line is +63
1/6/21; 3:59 PM EST = +67; signal line is +63
1/6/21; 2:53 PM EST = +53; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains long
1/6/21; 10:10 AM EST = +67; signal line is +64; go long 3745; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.3%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +0.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2021 = +0.6%)

Sunday, January 24, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The crazy price action continues. It's a Wild Wild Life. These are epic times. The robot has remained long for four days despite wanting to flip short with the algo number 9 points below the signal line. The internal parameters will not fully latch as yet to permit the move. This activity has only happened once, maybe twice, in the entire history of the quant (going four days wanting to flip but it does not). The price action remains erratic and unstable and probably historic.

The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. If the SPX drops below 3830 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. It does not get simpler than that. The S&P 500 begins at 3841 so bears only need 11 points. They better eat their Wheaties tomorrow morning.

The bulls must push UTIL above 885 starting at the 858 palindrome. This is a formidable task and each minute it does not occur is another nail in the bull coffin.

Bears need VIX above 24.78 to begin market carnage. VIX starts at 3 AM EST at 21.91. The wheels will fall off the stock market at 24.78 but if bulls keep volatility under this level, they will not be too worried. Weaker copper would also help the bears.

Bears win big if SPX falls below 3830 since the quant will likely flip short. Bulls need UTIL above 885 to prove that they can take the stock market higher this year. Bears need VIX above 24.78 where stocks will be selling off in earnest.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. The month of January trading ends on Friday with the calendar ending on Sunday. February trading begins on Monday, 2/1/21, 2121, one week from tomorrow.

SPX 3830 and VIX 24.78 will tell the market story on Monday. If stocks sell off early and it looks like it has downside legs, make sure VIX is above 24.78, otherwise, stocks will recover and become buoyant again.

1/31/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/21; 10:00 AM EST =
1/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
1/24/21; 7:00 PM EST = +51; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long
1/21/21; 9:00 AM EST = +51; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long

Friday, January 22, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bears try to flex their muscles but they need to eat more Wheaties. The quant is champing at the bit to go short but it is same-o, same-o today, Friday, at 11 AM EST-ish, at least so far. The day is young. If the SPX falls through 3830 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. The SPX is at 3841. VIX 21.84. VIX HOD 23.73. UTIL 856. The wild action continues.

1/24/21; 7:00 PM EST =
1/21/21; 9:00 AM EST = +51; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but continues champing at the bit to go short all week long. The internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move as yet. Sometimes it is like herding kittens. Several parameters will be latched but by the time the last few fall into place, one of the others has unlatched and wandered off. The bears remain in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 10 points below the signal line, despite the rise in equities the last couple days back to the record highs.

If the SPX drops below 3845, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. The SPX begins at 3853. S&P futures are down -25 with the VIX at 23.00. The bears would be better off with a slow down move. The gap-down move will likely trigger a timer that will not allow the quant to flip short for about 90 minutes. There are several moving parts so Keybot will do what it does; it may be an interesting morning ahead.

If VIX moves above 24.76, stocks will fall apart. Bears will also benefit from weaker copper.

Bulls are unable to move UTIL above 876 this week which leads into the sogginess as the week ends. It does not get easier for the bulls. Next week the 876 number is meaningless and replaced by 884.52 call it 885. Bulls must push UTIL above 885 by 4 PM EST today or more weakness will enter into the stock market next week. UTIL begins Friday at the 858 palindrome. If UTIL drops in earnest and falls through 825, the stock market will probably crash. Today may be a very interesting day.

1/24/21; 7:00 PM EST =
1/21/21; 9:00 AM EST = +51; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
1/19/21; 9:36 AM EST = +51; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long

Thursday, January 21, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo is champing at the bit to go short for the last two days. The holiday-shortened week begins on Tuesday and the bears came to play. Their chests are puffed-out and they are ready to push stocks lower. Utilities fail out of the gate this week as expected but markets rise instead of fall. Whazzat all about?

Former Fed Chair Yellen, Queen of the Doves, who never met a printing press she never loved, is now running Treasury and promises loads of fiscal dough forever. The Yellen Rally occurs. Then President Biden steps into the ring, tagging Yellen, this week is a tag-team event, promising free money for as far as the eye can see. The Biden Orgy occurs yesterday. This morning, ECB President Lagarde is on tap in three hours, and her words will impact the euro, which will send the dollar the other way, which will send stocks and gold the other way (moving with the euro). And don't forget the Fed keeps printing money like mad in the basement of the Eccles Building.

So the bears came to play with their ute negativity but the bulls have rich Aunt Janet, rich Uncle Joe, rich Uncle Jerome and rich Aunt Christine stepping in to slap the bears around and tell them to go home. Git! Go home!

The quant wants to go short but the internal parameters in the model will not yet fully latch to permit the move. If the SPX falls through that 3804-3817 zone today trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. The SPX begins up at 3852 so that would be a 35-point drop just for the bears to get in the game today. S&P futures are higher +5 so that would be about a 40-point drop needed.

Despite the upside euphoric joy and never-ending optimism that stocks will never go down again, bulls cannot get the UTIL above 876. UTIL is at 865. Up is the wrong direction for stocks unless UTIL moves above 876 pronto and trending higher for next week. Watch utilities closely today and tomorrow since they will tell you a lot. If UTIL moves above 876, the bulls are going to maintain elevated markets for a few days. If UTIL remains below 876, it is only a matter of time, perhaps today, before stocks start selling off and sinking lower.

If VIX pops above 24.76, that will tell you it is lights-out time for stocks. Weaker copper will also help bears but copper futures are higher this morning. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning before the opening bell.

The quant number is 10 points below the signal line placing the bears in charge of stock market direction but stocks go parabolic on a buying frenzy and short-covering rally. Understand that this is highly unique, erratic and unstable price behavior in markets. It is historic.

1/24/21; 7:00 PM EST =
1/21/21; 9:00 AM EST =
1/19/21; 9:36 AM EST = +51; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
1/17/21; 7:00 PM EST = +67; signal line is +62

Monday, January 18, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. Happy MLK Day. Trading resumes in the States tomorrow. The bulls are in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 5 points above the signal line. Volatility spiked on Friday morning so it looked like the bulls were finally cooked, but the Federal Reserve jumped on Uncle Vix, wrestling him to the ground, so stocks could remain buoyant.

The VIX is at 24.34 in the bull camp. Bears need the VIX above 25 22 to create market mayhem. Bears will also benefit from weaker copper. Bears need CPER below 21.45 which represents about a -3% drop in copper futures. That will create stock market weakness.

Utes are key. UTIL 875.81 is the key bull/bear line in the sand this week. UTIL begins at 851 which is an immediate failure out of the gate which will usher in stock market weakness. If UTIL remains below 876 after the opening bell, and the SPX drops below 3750 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The bulls need UTIL above 876 as fast as possible and the stock market party can begin again.

If utes rally, that will hint that the bears probably do not have a lot of strength and it may be enough to at least keep the stock market chopping sideways. The wheels will fall off if the VIX pops above 25.22. If UTIL falls through 825, the stock market may go into free fall.

That's a bunch of confusing stuff. Simplifying, bulls need UTIL above 876 pronto otherwise they are in trouble. Bears need to keep UTIL below 876 and push SPX below 3750 which should trigger the robot to flip short. If VIX pops above 25.22, you know the market is in serious trouble and stocks will be falling like rocks. If CPER then fails, stocks may assume a crash profile and then the story will be written by UTIL 825.

If UTIL 876, VIX 25.22 and CPER 21.45 occur in quick order, turning the market extremely bearish, the quant would likely flip short immediately. Is that clear as mud?

The opening minutes tomorrow are important. Watch the utilities and volatility; they dictate stock market direction and whether the model flips short on Tuesday, or not. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Thursday morning. Is it time for a market heartache?

1/24/21; 7:00 PM EST =
1/21/21; 9:00 AM EST =
1/17/21; 7:00 PM EST = +67; signal line is +62
1/15/21; 10:00 AM EST = +67; signal line is +62
1/12/21; 1:17 PM EST = +67; signal line is +61

Friday, January 15, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and the algo is quiet as the week moves along. The bulls are in charge of stock market direction but the algo number is only 6 points above the signal line. Volatility and utes continue running the show.

Bears need VIX above 25.16 and/or UTIL below 832.49. VIX is trading at 23.66 right now, 5-1/2 hours before the opening bell in the US so the bears need another buck-fifty, or buck-fitty for the younger crowd.

UTIL begins the Friday session at 851. The UTIL 832.49 number may be a lot to ask of the bears today but for next week (Monday trading is closed for Martin Luther King Day), 875.81 is the key level and the 832.49 is meaningless. Thus, by 4 PM EST today, UTIL must be above 876, otherwise, the stock market will be soft next week. If UTIL 832.49 fails today, stocks will fall apart and if the 825 fails, stocks may go into free fall. For next week, if UTIL is below 876, the stock market will be weak, and if 825 fails, stocks may to into free fall.

If VIX pops above 25.16 and the SPX slips below 3793 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The SPX begins at 3796 so the bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. Bears must pull the Federal Reserve's jackboots off the throat of volatility and let it explode higher if they want to growl and create mayhem. S&P futures are off -15. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM EST. The beat goes on.

1/17/21; 7:00 PM EST =
1/15/21; 10:00 AM EST =
1/12/21; 1:17 PM EST = +67; signal line is +61
1/12/21; 12:56 PM EST = +51; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long printing four numbers in the Monday session. The bears flex their muscles and attack the bulls but are slapped back. Utilities ruptured causing the softness in stocks yesterday but the bulls pull utes back into their camp to end the day.

Thus, same-o thing is on tap only now you know that utilities are definitely the stock market direction driver right now. Also volatility. Bears need UTIL below 832.49 to create trouble. If UTIL fails at 832.49, and the SPX falls below 3777 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If stocks fall but the utilities do not, stocks will recover. If stocks rally and utes fail, stocks will turn around and selloff.

If UTIL loses 832.49, consider that to be red lights flashing. If UTIL 825 fails, the stock market could go into free fall. At the least, there will probably be a 20 to 40 point drop in the SPX within an hour after the 825 failure occurs, should it occur.

Bears need VIX above 25.17 to create market mayhem. Bulls are fine as long as the VIX remains below 25.17. Above 25.17, and the wheels will fall off the stock market. If VIX moves above 25.17, and the SPX falls below 3777 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If utes have failed too, stocks will be dropping like rocks.

Bulls simply have to keep VIX sub 25.17 and UTIL above 832.49; bears are battling otherwise. The VIX is at 23.66 with S&P futures slipping negative. Futures turn sour over the last few minutes about 4 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street.

1/15/21; 10:00 AM EST =
1/12/21; 1:17 PM EST = +67; signal line is +61
1/12/21; 12:56 PM EST = +51; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
1/12/21; 12:48 PM EST = +67; signal line is +62
1/12/21; 12:12 PM EST = +51; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains long
1/10/21; 7:00 PM EST = +67; signal line is +63

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as stocks chop along. The quant did not print any numbers in the Monday session. The bulls are in charge with the algo number only 4 points above the signal line. Equities were weak on Monday but the VIX and UTIL remain in the bull camp so the downside was no biggie. S&P futures are up +10 early Tuesday morning.

The quant is identifying volatility, utilities and copper as the three key drivers of stock market direction currently. All three are in the bull camp which maintains buoyancy in the stock market. Bears need VIX above 25.20, UTIL below 832.49 and CPER below 21.47. The ute bull/bear line in the sand is -1.2% below the current price so the bears are in striking distance to make a statement if they want. The copper line in the sand is -2.3% below current levels but copper futures are up +2% this morning so bears will need about a -4% drop in the red metal's futures from current prices to create stock market negativity.

If UTIL loses 832.49, the stock market is in big trouble. If UTIL 825 then fails (note this is lower than the previous 827), it is lights out. Stocks could go into free fall. Bulls must push UTIL above 876 by the end of the week since this number is key for all of next week. If UTIL fails to finish the week above 876, that tells you the stock market will take a leg lower next week.

Volatility and utilities are key; watch VIX 25.20 and UTIL 832.49 closely. VIX is trading at 23.57 down this morning consistent with the lift in the S&P futures. Bulls are okay as long as the three parameters remain bullish. If any one turns bearish, and it probably would be volatility first, and if the SPX moves below 3789 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

The bulls are getting a better bid now with S&P futures up +14 and the VIX at 23.25. Bears need a two-stick move in vol if they want to growl.

1/17/21; 7:00 PM EST =
1/15/21; 10:00 AM EST =
1/10/21; 7:00 PM EST = +67; signal line is +63

Sunday, January 10, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market goes parabolic. Traders are bulled-up on a perpetual money-printing heaven coming from the incoming Biden administration. The massive liquidity will pump stocks to the moon, or that is at least what traders think. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3826.69 and all-time record closing high at 3824.68 both on 1/8/21 the highest numbers ever printed in the history of the US stock market (despite the Capitol Hill Riot).

The bulls are in their glory days but interestingly, the algo number is only 4 points above the signal line. Therefore, view the stock market as more of a coin-flip. The Fed crushed volatility so stocks pop. Bears need the VIX above 25.14 (now at 21.56) to create market negativity.

The quant's parameters are very strong. Watch utilities. Bears need UTIL below 832.49 (now at 851.28). Stocks will take a noticeable dip if this happen. Interestingly, despite the record highs and euphoric bullishness, if UTIL would then fail at 827, a trap-door would open in the stock market that could go into a flash crash event. There is likely a very interesting week and month ahead. If UTIL moves higher and away from 832, that would signal that the bulls should be able to keep stocks elevated for a few days forward.

The bulls are cruising along but if UTIL loses 832.49, and the SPX drops below 3784 heading lower, Keybot would likely flip into the bear camp. The SPX begins the week at the record high 3825 so the bears would need a 41 point drop on Monday. Markets remain erratic and highly unstable. Watch the utilities.

1/17/21; 7:00 PM EST =
1/15/21; 10:00 AM EST =
1/10/21; 7:00 PM EST = +67; signal line is +63
1/8/21; 9:00 AM EST = +67; signal line is +63
1/6/21; 3:59 PM EST = +67; signal line is +63

Thursday, January 7, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side with the algo number only 4 points above the signal line. The stock market is a coin toss especially considering the Capitol Hill violence. The natives are getting restless. Volatility is all that matters. VIX is trading at 23.52 right now with S&P futures up +22.

Bears need the VIX above 25.31 to create stock market trouble. The bulls will keep stocks elevated if the VIX remains below 25.31. Bulls may not be able to make much headway higher with stocks but they would be able to sustain current prices.

If VIX moves above 25.31, and the SPX drops below 3705 trending lower, Keybot the Quant would probably flip short. The SPX begins at 3748 so the bears have their work cut out for them. The historic times continue. Watch VIX 25.31; it tells you everything you need to know.

1/8/21; 9:00 AM EST =
1/6/21; 3:59 PM EST = +67; signal line is +63
1/6/21; 2:53 PM EST = +53; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains long
1/6/21; 10:10 AM EST = +67; signal line is +64; go long 3745; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.3%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +0.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2021 = +0.6%)

Wednesday, January 6, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side this morning shortly after the opening bell at SPX 3745. As seen this morning, the Fed came to the rescue jumping on top of Uncle Vix, wrestling him to the ground and making sure he stays down. The VIX drops to a 22-handle so equities leap higher. The algo number is only 3 measly points above the signal line but it was enough to coax the robot to flip long.

The bulls knew what they needed to do, and they did it. Bears need VIX above 25.29 or they got nothing. It is a surprise to see the bulls take over. Bulls must keep the VIX low and heading lower.

On the last trade, which is the first trade of the year, only lasting a couple days, the S&P 500 benchmark and Keybot's program are each up +0.3% while the actual trading is up +0.6% to start the year. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's. On a side note, that last trade was entered on 12/21/20 if you recall but the quant had to be rezeroed because of the new year. Just looking at that last trade itself from 12/21/20 to now, the program would have lost -2.8% and the actual trading would have lost -3.4%. The new year actually helped the robot begin the year on an upbeat.

Stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side at any time. Watch VIX 25.29 for the market answer. You don't even have to watch the stock market itself, simply watch VIX 25.29 and you know how the stock market moves. The price action remains erratic and unstable.

1/10/21; 7:00 PM EST =
1/8/21; 9:00 AM EST =
1/6/21; 10:10 AM EST = +67; signal line is +64; go long 3745; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.3%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +0.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2021 = +0.6%)
1/6/21; 4:45 AM EST = +67; signal line is +64
1/5/21; 3:59 PM EST = +53; signal line is +65
1/5/21; 3:55 PM EST = +67; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains short
1/5/21; 3:22 PM EST = +53; signal line is +66
1/5/21; 3:10 PM EST = +67; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains short
1/5/21; 2:59 PM EST = +53; signal line is +67
1/5/21; 2:06 PM EST = +67; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains short
1/4/21; 1:16 PM EST = +53; signal line is +67
1/4/21; 11:56 AM EST = +37; signal line is +68
1/4/21; 10:51 AM EST = +53; signal line is +68
1/1/21; Begin 2021 Data Set = +67; signal line is +69; go short 3756; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2021 = 0%)(Actual trading results this trade = 0%; Actual trading results for 2021 = 0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The quant prints six numbers yesterday. The battle was with volatility. The VIX comes down and fails at the 25.37 which causes the rally yesterday afternoon but as the day ended, the VIX fails into the bear camp again closing at 25.34 at Keybot's bull/bear line in the sand called out yesterday morning. Have you ever seen numbers called out in the stock market before they occur? No, you haven't, only here. Keybot is a smart robot.

The algo is tracking VIX 25.30 as the key bull/bear line in the sand this morning and the VIX is trading currently at 26 favoring the bears. S&P futures are down -25. Bears are fine as long as the VIX remains above 25.30. If the VIX drops below 25.30, the bulls are staging a big comeback and stocks will be rallying.

Bears need RTH below 155.51 and UTIL below 827 to create market mayhem. If either fail, you will see a downdraft in equities. If both fail, it will be a healthy flush lower for the stock market, especially if utilities fail. If UTIL loses 827, markets will likely take on a very negative posture going forward. The beat goes on.

1/10/21; 7:00 PM EST =
1/8/21; 9:00 AM EST =
1/5/21; 3:59 PM EST = +53; signal line is +65
1/5/21; 3:55 PM EST = +67; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains short
1/5/21; 3:22 PM EST = +53; signal line is +66
1/5/21; 3:10 PM EST = +67; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains short
1/5/21; 2:59 PM EST = +53; signal line is +67
1/5/21; 2:06 PM EST = +67; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains short
1/4/21; 1:16 PM EST = +53; signal line is +67

Note Added 4:24 AM EST: VIX comes down to 25.35. The bulls are fighting back. The Fed places its jackboots on the throat of volatility, as usual, to keep the stock market elevated and protect the privileged class that own large stock portfolios. VIX 25.30 is for all the marbles. It tells you stock market direction today.

Tuesday, January 5, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the first day of trading in 2021 results in a down day. The SPX actually prints a new all-time record high at 3769.99 but the all-time closing high remains at 3756.07 from 12/31/20. The quant prints three numbers on Monday and the bears remain in control of stock market direction with the algo number 14 points below the signal line. The caution flag remains out but if the algo number drops further, the caution may be removed from the title line.

Volatility and retail stocks fail yesterday creating the broad stock market weakness. The VIX pops above the key bull/bear line in the sand at 25.37. The VIX is trading now at 26.54. Bears are fine as long as the VIX remains above 25.37. If the VIX drops below 25.37, the bulls will be pushing stocks higher. If there is a rally in stocks, but the VIX does not drop below 25.37, the rally is phony, and stocks will roll back over and die.

RTH failed at the key bull/bear line in the sand at 155.25 but then recovered after munch time Monday to end at 156.43 back in the bull camp. Thus, RTH tells the story today. Bears win, and stocks will crumble, if RTH fails at 155.25. The bulls must keep RTH elevated while at the same time push vol lower.

Note the drop in utes which signals potential serious trouble for the stock market ahead. A couple weeks will have to play out to see if there will be long-term damage. UTIL is at 843 coming down to potentially test the key bull/bear line in the sand at 827. There will be Hell to pay if 827 fails. Next week, 832.49 is key. Thus, by Friday at 4 PM EST, UTIL needs to be above 832 which is only 11 points below the current price. Keep an eye on it. Bears would also receive more downside juice if copper futures fall about -3%. Copper is rallying +1.2% this morning so the bears will need about a -4.2% drop intraday in copper from current levels to create stock market mayhem.

Bears need weaker RTH, UTIL and CPER to pave the way lower for equities. Bulls need a lower VIX to stop and prevent any selling in the stock market.

1/8/21; 9:00 AM EST =
1/4/21; 1:16 PM EST = +53; signal line is +67
1/4/21; 11:56 AM EST = +37; signal line is +68
1/4/21; 10:51 AM EST = +53; signal line is +68
1/1/21; Begin 2021 Data Set = +67; signal line is +69; go short 3756; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2021 = 0%)(Actual trading results this trade = 0%; Actual trading results for 2021 = 0%)

Sunday, January 3, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot theQuant remains on the short side through the end of the year and to begin the first day of trading in 2021. The bears are in control of the stock market direction but the algo number is only 2 measly points below the signal line. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3760.20 and all-time closing high at 3756.07 both on Thursday, 12/31/20, the last day of trading for the year. The House is a Rockin'.

It is interesting that the quant is short as the stock market prints a new record high; that may have never happened before in the history of the algorithm. This price behavior verifies uber euphoric bullishness in the stock market.

The bears need weaker retail stocks, higher volatility, and weaker utilities to create market mayhem. Bears need RTH below 155.25 and/or VIX above 25.19. Stocks will immediately begin falling apart if either of these parameters occur. If both occur, that would be Double Trouble and Stevie Ray would begin to play. If both remain bullish, the bears got nothing. If stocks rally but one of the two parameters turns bearish, the stock market will turn around and drop. If stocks sell off but neither of the two parameters turn bearish, stocks will turn around and rally again. RTH is heavily impacted by AMZN so keep an eye on Scamazon and King Bezos.

Utilities. This is exciting stuff. The stock market is likely placing an epic top in Q1. Keybot, however, only sees 1's and 0's so it will be doing its own thing. Once the market sells off, utes will tell you if it truly is a significant multi-month top, or, if it is a run-of-the-mill garden-variety pullback followed by a sharp recovery. UTIL 829 is the bull-bear line in the sand for the week ahead with price starting at 865. If 829 fails this week, stocks are in big trouble. Next week, UTIL 832.49 is the key bull-bear line in the sand. For the week of 1/18/20, UTIL 876 is key.

Within the next 10 trading days, UTIL must be above 876 and remain above heading higher, otherwise stocks are in trouble. If stocks are tumbling lower for a few weeks, and if UTIL drops below 829-ish anytime ahead, that tells you there is likely long-term damage ahead. If UTL drops below 8 hundo, there is definitely stock market damage occurring and it will be long-term sustainable. If UTIL loses that 780-790 area, the stock market would be highly susceptible to a major crash. Thus, watch the utes closely.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The algo has been very quiet over the last month but you know how that goes. Out of nowhere it can explode into craziness spitting out numbers left and right. The Georgia runoff elections are Tuesday and Congressional ratification meeting affirming Biden as the 46th POTUS is on hump day. There will likely be theatrics on both days and the whole week for that matter into the critical US Monthly Jobs Report on Friday morning.

1/10/21; 7:00 PM EST =
1/8/21; 9:00 AM EST =
1/1/21; Begin 2021 Data Set = +67; signal line is +69; go short 3756; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2021 = 0%)(Actual trading results this trade = 0%; Actual trading results for 2021 = 0%)