STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Bulls and bears came to play on Monday and it was a give and take battle until the SPX ran higher giving the bulls the upper hand.

The cyclical bear market was fleeting due to the announcement of a ceasefire with the Iran War. The cyclical bulls are back in business. Why can't King Donnie achieve a ceasefire in the Ukraine War when he was supposed to end that conflict 24 hours after taking office? Trumpski said, as he enjoyed company with Putin, that he did not want a ceasefire in the Ukraine War. Go figure. Nonetheless, the announcement about the Iran War creates a record stock market orgy on Wall Street. Will it last?

Short sellers had to cover quickly creating the strong rally. The bulls are clearly in charge of the stock market with the algo number 64 points above the signal line. Everyone is in the bull camp except for one key metric; volatility.

Despite the party atmosphere and traders buying any stock with a heartbeat, the VIX was unable to drop below its key line in the sand at 19.53. VIX is trading at 21.53 in real-time so the bulls need 2 ticks lower before they can throw the big party with confetti, booze and dancing girls.

Retail, banks and copper create the upside joy. Copper needs to drop about -1.7% to help the bears and it is down -0.8% currently. Bears need weaker retail stocks, banks and copper. Bulls need the VIX below 19.53 to signal the all-clear for upside glory ahead. For now, the bulls are celebrating singing Paloma Blanca. It's a new day, it's a new way, and I fly up to the sun.

4/12/26; 7:00 PM EST =
4/10/26; 10:00 AM EST =
4/8/26; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is -10
4/6/26; 2:15 PM EST = +6; signal line is -14
4/6/26; 2:04 PM EST = -8; signal line is -15
4/6/26; 1:28 PM EST = +6; signal line is -16
4/6/26; 1:18 PM EST = -8; signal line is -17
4/6/26; 9:48 AM EST = +6; signal line is -17
4/5/26; 7:00 PM EST = -8; signal line is -17

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Happy Easter. Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 9 points above the signal line. That is not much so the caution flag remains out.

King Donnie is spouting threats all weekend long now cursing at Iran to open the Straits of Hormuz. A day ago he said he did not care about the straits. Trumpski threatens to blow up power plants and other infrastructure on Tuesday that will screw the Iranian people that wanted help. Poor American kids will be sent off to fight in Hormuz, like Vietnam years ago. If you are lucky to make it back, when someone asks you what war you were in, you will say Muz, like a few decades ago when you would say Nam.

As previously posted, bears need NYA below 21750 to wreak havoc in the stock market. Bulls need SPX above 6590 to prove they got game going forward. Status quo means more choppy slop.

In addition, bulls need stronger banks and copper to signal the all-clear for big gains ahead. Bulls need XLF above 50.40 and/or CPER above 34.63 that will catapult the stock market bigtime higher.

Bears need weaker semiconductors in addition to the NYA index if they want to start growling again. Bears need SOX below 7710 to create negativity in the stock market. If either NYA or SOX join the bear camp, either one would do, and the SPX would drop below 6475, Keybot the Quant may flip short. If either NYA or SOX turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play.

Bulls need a stronger SPX and stronger banks and copper to throw confetti for the stock market going forward. Bears need a weaker NYA index and weaker chips to reopen the gates of Hell for equities.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning. Here comes Peter Cottontail, hopping down the bunny trail... Merv Shiner at the Martin factory. The Martin acoustic guitars are excellent and made by hand in Pennsylvania.

4/12/26; 7:00 PM EST =
4/10/26; 10:00 AM EST =
4/5/26; 7:00 PM EST = -8; signal line is -17
4/3/26; 9:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is -17
4/1/26; 2:08 PM EST = -8; signal line is -17

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through more choppy slop. Stocks tank yesterday morning due to King Donnie's braggadocio speech that he will bomb Iran into the Stone Age. Global markets do not want to hear asinine language. The quant did not flinch at the bear trap that snared as stocks took off higher after the flush lower into the 3-day Easter weekend. The US stock market is closed today but the Jobs Report is on tap.

SPX 6589.50 opens the gates to Hell with price below at 6582.69. NYA 21750 closes the gates to Hell with price above at 22194. One of these two will flinch and that tells you the direction of the US stock market. If SPX recovers, it is party-time going forward. If NYA fails, we tumble into the abyss of Hades.

Chips, banks and copper control the destiny of the two metrics above. These are the parameters controlling the stock market currently. The bulls remain in control with the algo number 9 points above the signal line. After the Easter Bunny runs away, these signposts will light the way. What will the signs say? Signs by the Five Man Electrical Band.

4/5/26; 7:00 PM EST =
4/3/26; 9:00 AM EST =
4/1/26; 2:08 PM EST = -8; signal line is -17
4/1/26; 11:12 AM EST = +6; signal line is -17

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bull party continues. Chips turn bullish providing more upside fuel for the stock market. The bulls are in control with the algo number 23 points above the signal line.

Bears need SPX below 6589 (it is teetering; this target level jumps higher because a new month begins today), SOX below 7720 and/or NYA below 21745. For now, they are bullish drinking the Trumpski vodka that says the Iran War is ending. Bears likely need 2 of the 3 to turn bearish to resume the downward slide in stocks.

Bulls need stronger banks and copper to create more upside. Of course, they need the three parameters above to remain bullish and XLF 50.45 and/or CPER 34.65 will create lots more upside fuel for equities.

SPX is walking on the 6589 canyon edge right now at 6601. CPER (copper) is in the neighborhood of turning bullish if it receives a push. There are lots of moving parts right now but SPX, SOX, NYA, XLF and CPER will dictate the trail forward. The bunny trail chasing rabbits. Looking for the White Rabbit with Gracie. Go ask Alice.

4/5/26; 7:00 PM EST =
4/3/26; 9:00 AM EST =
4/1/26; 11:12 AM EST = +6; signal line is -17
4/1/26; 9:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is -17
3/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = -10; signal line is -17

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side before the session ended yesterday at SPX 6526. The whipsaw choppy slop is relentless. It is market craziness to see the SPX down a couple hundred points then recover it all in a matter of three days. The Easter Bunny laid a brown egg in the bull's basket last week and then hopped onto the bear's basket yesterday and laid a bigger brown egg. Gene Autry made the Peter Cottontail song famous. Kids enjoy it this time of year.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. The bulls win with the SPX regaining 6503-6504 and NYA regaining 21740 but this battle will likely continue. Stronger chips will bolster the bull case. Bears need the SPX and NYA to drop back below those key levels.

March trading and Q1 are in the bag with April trading beginning today. Watch out for the April Fool's Day pranks. There are only two trading days remaining in the week and Easter weekend begins.

On the last trade that ran less than a week, the quant program and actual trading each lose a half percent. It is death by a thousand cuts. O Death by Ralph Stanley. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 and the quant program are both down about -5% and the actual trading generated by the quant is down -4%. No one is happy this year with the never-ending sideways pig slop. Keybot exited SH and entered DIA. Will this direction last more than 10 minutes?

4/5/26; 7:00 PM EST =
4/3/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = -10; signal line is -17
3/31/26; 3:37 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16; go long 6526 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -4.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.1%)
3/31/26; 2:50 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains short
3/31/26; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -16
3/31/26; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is -14
3/30/26; 12:28 PM EST = -38; signal line is -13
3/30/26; 11:02 AM EST = -24; signal line is -11
3/30/26; 9:48 AM EST = -38; signal line is -10
3/30/26; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9
3/29/26; 7:00 PM EST = -38; signal line is -8
3/27/26; 1:56 PM EST = -38; signal line is -7
3/27/26; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -6
3/26/26; 1:55 PM EST = -24; signal line is -4
3/26/26; 1:54 PM EST = -10; signal line is -3; go short 6497 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -5.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2026 = -3.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market falls apart due to ongoing bad news about the Iran War. King Donnie may be in over his orange head; this week will shed light on the matter. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 30 points below the signal line. It sounds like a lot but in these wild markets, things can change quickly so the caution flag remains out.

SPX 6497 and NYA 21707 tell the market story. Stocks were sold off on Friday but trying to hang in there. Then, as previously described, the NYA failed opening the gates to Hell. Prices are now below both lines in the sand celebrating a cyclical bear market ahead for the stock market.

Obviously, the bulls need to regain both these levels as fast as possible. Each day stocks are below creates the greater likelihood that the entire year will be soggy for equities. If bulls can push NYA back above 21707 that will at least stop the selling and send stocks sideways until it is determined if the SPX can recover, or not.

A big crash to the downside remains suspect because of the Trumpflation in commodities right now and the extended buoyancy of utilities. It would be odd for the major crash to occur without them leading or at least coincidental. Keybot the Quant prints three prescheduled numbers this week two on Tuesday, that is the end of the month and first quarter, and Friday morning before the opening bell.

The price action is dictated by the Iran War and we are along for the ride. Ride Captain Ride upon your mystery ship.

4/5/26; 7:00 PM EST =
4/3/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/29/26; 7:00 PM EST = -38; signal line is -8
3/27/26; 1:56 PM EST = -38; signal line is -7
3/27/26; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -6
3/26/26; 1:55 PM EST = -24; signal line is -4

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side yesterday at SPX 6497 as the stock market goes to pot on Iran War negativity. The choppy whipsaw slop for the last half-year is getting old. It is difficult to make money in non-trending markets. It does not matter if it trends up or down just pick one already. Stocks may whipsaw back to the long side today the way things are going. Like the old joke about the weather, stick around, in 10 minutes it will change again.

Yesterday's price action was interesting since price fell out of bed due to chips failing but the NYA index did not. The critical SPX 6501 line in the sand, however, did give way and it is a biggie.

SOX 7755, SPX 6501 and NYA 21701 are the three lines in the sand controlling stock market direction currently. The chips fail to 7586 so the bulls have some work to do to bring it back above 7755 to help the stock market. SOX and the SPX are creating negativity but the NYA is still bullish.

SPX 6501 and NYA 21701 are cyclical stock market indicators the two most important metrics that exist. The SPX is below forecasting a cyclical bear market ahead while the NYA is not convinced. The battle makes the path forward in the short term an easy call.

If NYA drops below 21701, and joins the SPX in the cyclical bear camp, the gates to Hell are wide open and stocks will collapse.

If SPX regains the 6501 level, the bears are all growl and no bite and stocks will likely recover. If this is the case, watch the chips to see if the upside has legs. Stocks will remain in a weak state if the semiconductors remain subdued.

The utilities remain in the bull camp throughout the market turmoil. This hints that the major crash lower for the stock market will likely not occur right now in the near-term time frame, although you never know. If utes were in the bear camp, we would be facing Armageddon now, but they are not. Negativity will likely develop in the utilities going forward.

For the last trade that ran for a day, the quant program and actual trading are both hit with a two percent loss giving back a big part of the prior gains. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is down a touch more than -5%. The quant program and actual trading this year is down about -4% so no one is happy so far but there is a lot of year remaining. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters SH. The use of single ETF's, due to the choppy whipsaw price action, will continue for another month.

Keybot prints a prescheduled number shortly after the opening bell this morning. The market is going up, going down, going up, down, down, up, anyway you want it, let it roll, as Jimmy taught us. Baby What You Want Me To Do.

3/29/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/27/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/26/26; 1:55 PM EST = -24; signal line is -4
3/26/26; 1:54 PM EST = -10; signal line is -3; go short 6497 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -5.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2026 = -3.6%)
3/26/26; 10:47 AM EST = -10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains long
3/25/26; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3; go long 6620 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -3.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.7%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 6620. The stock market this year, however, remains a sideways choppy pile of pig slop. Stocks are moving on the Iran War news that impacts oil and other commodities.

Chips and the NYA index are running the show. SOX 7760 and NYA 21690 remain the bull/bear lines in the sand, respectively, moving slightly higher with each passing minute. Prices are above so both are in the bull camp creating yesterday's joy.

S&P futures are tanking this morning but watch the two metrics above to actually know where stocks are going. If a flush lower occurs at the opening bell of the cash session, and one or both metrics turn bearish, there is negativity ahead.

If the flush lower occurs, but both metrics remain bullish, the downside move is likely a fake-out and stocks should recover. Chips are under pressure this morning so pay attention to SOX, XSD and SMH to know what is going on. Pressure Drop by Toots and the Maytals.

On the last trade that ran for about 3 weeks, the quant program gains about three percent and the actual trading gains about two percent. For the year thus far, with Q1 (Jan, Feb, Mar) almost in the bag, the benchmark S&P 500 is down about three percent, and the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant are each down about two percent. Keybot exited SH and entered SPY remaining in single ETF's.

3/29/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/27/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/25/26; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3; go long 6620 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -3.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.7%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.7%)
3/23/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -5
3/20/26; 3:59 PM EST = -24; signal line is -4
3/20/26; 3:29 PM EST = -38; signal line is -3
3/20/26; 2:37 PM EST = -24; signal line is -1
3/20/26; 10:15 AM EST = -10; signal line is -1
3/19/26; 1:33 PM EST = +6; signal line is -0 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 1:12 PM EST = -10; signal line is -1
3/19/26; 12:43 PM EST = +6; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 12:26 PM EST = -10; signal line is -2
3/19/26; 12:07 PM EST = +6; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 11:25 AM EST = -10; signal line is -3
3/19/26; 11:17 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is -4
3/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 11:02 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 10:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 9:48 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -3
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2
3/12/26; 2:40 PM EST = -10; signal line is -1
3/12/26; 9:47 AM EST = +6; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
3/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short
3/9/26; 3:26 PM EST = -6; signal line is +0
3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = -22; signal line is +1
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST = -22; signal line is +2
3/5/26; 12:21 PM EST = -22; signal line is +4; go short 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short despite the bull orgy in the stock market brought on by King Donnie balking on the Iran War deadline and ultimatum he imposed. The orange dude extends his threats against Iranian power stations until a Saturday deadline. Of course he does since it is the weekend and he can gauge the response of the drama. Then, on Sunday afternoon, or just before the opening bell on Monday morning, he will provide comments to try and manipulate the markets. It worked yesterday with futures down large, and then pivoted on a dime, flying skyward as Trumpski backed away from his threats and bloviations. What a mess.

Chips and the NYA index jump into the bull camp out of the gate yesterday placing the quant in position to go long but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move. At 10:18 AM EST, the robot was a hair away from flipping long but did not. It balked like Donnie.

The quant wants to flip long with the algo number 10 points above the signal line. If the SPX rallies above 6652, a tall order, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, therefore, the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

The bears have to pull semiconductors and the NYA index back in their camps if they plan to take equities lower. SOX 7750 and NYA 21688 are the two key lines in the sand. Prices are above creating the bull joy. Bears need either one to turn negative and that will be enough to maintain the continued green light for lower and lower stock market prices. If both turn negative, the rout is back on and the blood will flow again on Wall Street.

SOX 7750 and NYA 21688 will tell you the direction of the stock market going forward. SMH is down -0.6% in the premarket so it looks like the chips are down, literally and figuratively. Let's see; a -0.3% drop in the SOX will likely send it back into the bear camp and create a pall on the stock market and chips are down trice that in early trading. The bulls hope for no more rain but the bears wish for a downpour. Time to groove to No Rain.

3/29/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/27/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/23/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -5

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through all the ongoing drama with the algo number 19 points below the signal line so the bears are feeling pretty good about themselves.  The SPX 6502.45 and NYA 21661 lines in the sand gave way on Friday opening the gates of Hell and causing the big flush lower in equities. The SPX recovers to 6506 at the end of the session with the bulls trying to keep the bears at bay.

Chips also failed on Friday creating stock market trouble. Thus, the 3 metrics controlling stock market direction right now are SPX 6502, NYA 21661, and SOX 7765. The NYA and SOX prices are below the lines in the sand creating market bearishness. The SPX is above its line in the sand creating market bullishness. The interplay of these three parameters dictate the path ahead for stocks.

The bears need SPX back below 6502 to prove they still got game and the carnage has only just begun.

The bulls need NYA above 21661 that will immediately place the bulls at ease knowing that they have at least stopped the downward pressure. Bulls also need stronger chips and for the SOX to regain 7765. If both metrics turn bullish, and the SPX is running above 6595, it is likely that Keybot the Quant will flip long so for now, the caution flag will remain out. Monday is going to tell you a lot about the path ahead.

The SPX 6502 and NYA 21661 metrics are the two most important stock market indicators right now. If SPX joins the NYA in the bear camp, there will be Hell to pay. If these two indicators remain failed for a few days, it tells you that the United States stock market has fallen into a cyclical bear market pattern. Stocks must recover and move far above these cliff-edges if the bulls want to maintain a cyclical bull market. There is a lot on the line this week.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the stock market opens. The market is a wild one. A Real Wild Child. We need some Iggy. There was only one Iggy. The Crocodile Dundee movie back in the 80's featured the tune in the background.

3/29/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/27/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -5
3/20/26; 3:59 PM EST = -24; signal line is -4
3/20/26; 3:29 PM EST = -38; signal line is -3
3/20/26; 2:37 PM EST = -24; signal line is -1
3/20/26; 10:15 AM EST = -10; signal line is -1
3/19/26; 1:33 PM EST = +6; signal line is -0 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot wants to flip long with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. Bulls need to keep SOX above 7770 and push the SPX above 6637 and Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That equates to a 31-point gain for the SPX tomorrow so watch the S&P futures overnight to see if it is on the docket.

The bears need to pull SOX below 7770 to create further market pain. Bears need NYA below 21665 and/or SPX 6506 to open the gates to Hell. These two metrics are bigtime longer term parameters so if they fail, or even one of them, it is serious business and if long the stock market, you will need to start panicking.

Bulls win with SPX above 6637. Bears win with SOX below 7770 (weaker chips). It's a cage match. Two will enter but only one will exit and stocks will go in that direction. Bob Dylan and Donovan hanging out

3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/19/26; 1:33 PM EST = +6; signal line is -0 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 1:12 PM EST = -10; signal line is -1
3/19/26; 12:43 PM EST = +6; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the odd stock market action continues. The robot is active today and champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 7 points above the signal line, but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. Domo arigato, Mr Roboto. My brain IBM.

The bulls need the SPX above 6705 to flip Keybot the Quant to the long side, unless something wildly bullish happens to make it occur faster. 

The bears continue to run the show even though the model wants to flip long. The battle today is chips. Watch SOX 7767.80 as the key bull/bear line in the sand. As chips go, so goes the stock market. If SOX remains above 7768 moving higher, so will stocks. If SOX collapses below 7768, it is time for equities to slide down the rabbit hole.

3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/19/26; 12:43 PM EST = +6; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 12:26 PM EST = -10; signal line is -2
3/19/26; 12:07 PM EST = +6; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 11:25 AM EST = -10; signal line is -3
3/19/26; 11:17 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is -4
3/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but wants to flip long. The whipsaw coin-flip stock market continues all year long. Stocks did not want to make any big moves ahead of the big Fed decision tomorrow when Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High and tells traders how to trade.

Stocks are bullish about 80% of the time going into a Fed decision so traders jumped the gun and were front-running this expectation out of the gate on Monday (yesterday). Interestingly, the Fed meeting sits on the peak of the new moon for the month at 9:23 PM EST tomorrow. Stocks are typically bearish about two-thirds of the time moving through the new moon so that will be interesting to watch as Powell performs his financial tap dance.

The last few days have not changed. Chips and copper are running the show. The algorithm is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 9 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. If the SPX, starting at 6716, rallies tomorrow above 6754, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That is +38 SPX points so you can watch the futures overnight. It may seem like a lot but the indexes are making moves far bigger and in only the time it takes to grab a cup of coffee or tea. The bulls have it on a platter if they want it.

The semiconductor and copper lines in the sand are SOX 7772 and CPER 35.50, respectively. SOX price is above creating bullishness in the stock market. Mister Copper is back to lying on the gurney and is below the line in the sand creating stock market bearishness. This is why you see the market indecision. The weakness today occurred when SOX dropped to test the line in the sand and then stocks rallied as chips ran higher into the close.

Bulls win big and will likely flip the quant long if the SPX moves above 6754. Bears will prove they can still take stocks far lower if they pull SOX below 7772. If the semiconductors weaken tomorrow, the stock market will probably fall apart to the downside.

Watch chips and copper. And of course pretty Venus was her name. She's got it. It is interesting that the Gen Z's and Gen Alpha's are updating a lot of the 60's and 70's culture and words for themselves. Good on them. They are digging the vibe. Vibe and vibration is from decades ago and used again now. Good Vibrations. Before long, young folks will be saying dig again.

3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 11:02 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 10:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 9:48 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -3
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2
3/12/26; 2:40 PM EST = -10; signal line is -1
3/12/26; 9:47 AM EST = +6; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
3/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short, but wants to go long, as the market turmoil continues. It is all about semiconductors and copper. Bulls came to play on Monday with their chests puffed out but their hopes deflated on Tuesday unable to flip the model long despite the algo number 10 points above the signal line.  The internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. Today will be interesting with CPI data on deck in three hours.

CPER 35.68 and SOX 7801 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. Both are above creating stock market bullishness but the bulls are unable to capitalize on the situation, at least not yet.

Copper futures need to drop about a percent to send CPER to the bear camp, and keep the bears in business, and copper is down -1.6% so it looks like the bears want to maintain control of the stock market. S&P futures were positive overnight but are now down -15 points as copper leaks lower.

If bulls send the SPX above 6845 moving higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long but this is a tall ask since the SPX begins at 6781. At the same time, copper is down more than -1% so the bears want to flex their muscles and maintain their grip on the market. In the 1960's, kids in southwestern Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh area, would watch the Ricki & Copper television show; Ricki Wertz and her friendly dog, Copper. 

3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. The algo number is 10 points above the signal line. Tomorrow will be a big day. Stocks were down big until King Donnie said the Iran War was near completion. Of course it is a bloviation but the markets did not care. Oil drops like a rock and equities explode higher intraday.

Copper and chips create the big rally today. Copper turned positive and that is when the stock market turned around and started to rally to beat The Band. The Weight. Watch the SOX 7796 and CPER 35.66 lines in the sand. Price is above both creating the positivity in equites.

Bears need to turn 1 of the 2 metrics bearish to breathe easier and resume the dark clouds and negativity. Bulls need the SPX to rise above 6810 and Keybot the Quant will likely flip long so a rise of +14 points is needed in the S&P futures. Oh my. Donnie Trumpski was talking a minute ago and S&P futures are down -22 points. This year's sideways whipsaw choppy pig slop continues. Bulls need the SPX to move slowly higher and not gap-up at the opening bell. If a gap-up occurs, the robot will likely delay the move for 90 minutes.

Bears win with weaker chips and copper and win big if both turn bearish again. Bulls win with the SPX above 6810. The beat goes on. Ba-la, ba-la, la-la. Monday Monday. Monday, Monday, can't trust that day.

3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short
3/9/26; 3:26 PM EST = -6; signal line is +0
3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = -22; signal line is +1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama intensifies. Oil futures shoot over one hundo. The clock just fell off the wall in the Oval Office. King Donnie's orange head is turning red worrying about the stock market going down the drain due to the Iran War.

S&P futures are down over 100 points responding to the wild spike higher in oil prices, that will create higher gasoline prices, that will negatively impact consumer sentiment and spending.

The bears have the ball with the algo number 23 points below the signal line. Yinz probably noticed the drama with the red metal. As copper goes, so goes the stock market. The quant identifies CPER 35.65 as the bull/bear line in the sand and price closed for the weekend at...... wait for it ......... wait a bit longer for it ........ 35.63, in the bear camp creating negativity, but only two cents away from the bull camp.

If CPER remains below 35.65 and moving lower, the stock market will deteriorate. If CPER moves above 35.65, the stock market selling will stop and stabilize. Thus, watch copper futures overnight. Whatever direction they go, the stock market will likely follow. Bears benefit from weaker copper, weaker utilities, and weaker commodities. Copper is getting bludgeoned down -2.5%.

Bulls need stronger copper and also higher chips, retail stocks, and banks, and lower volatility. A lot can happen overnight, but it appears that the bears want to come and play tomorrow. Let It Drop.

3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = -22; signal line is +1
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST = -22; signal line is +2
3/5/26; 12:21 PM EST = -22; signal line is +4; go short 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side at SPX 6805 not much of a surprise considering the non-stop sideways choppy slop this year. The stock market is controlled by chips and copper right now. Both jump back into the bear camp creating the flip back to the short side.

SOX 7857 and CPER 35.65 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. The path ahead remains a coin-flip because both metrics can easily flip bullish tomorrow, especially after the important US Monthly Jobs Report. The drop today and market turmoil is a surprise from the context that a flat boring day would have been expected into the jobs numbers in the morning. King Donnie Trumpski (the president) is given the jobs numbers the day before so did the orange head provide a heads-up to his wealthy friends so they could insider trade today?

SOX is at 7822 recovering late-day only 35 points away from the line in the sand so the semiconductors can easily flip back into the bull camp in the morning. CPER is at the 35.58 only 7 cents from the line in the sand so copper can easily flip back into the bull camp in the morning. Bulls need 1 of the 2 to turn bullish to stop the market selling and both are likely needed to flip the model long. If both parameters turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 6870, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw long. The whipsaw slop this year is getting old.

Watch chips and copper because they tell you the direction of the stock market. 

On the last trade that ran for about 8-1/2 hours, a whipsaw, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses -1.7%. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is down almost a percent. The quant program is down -5% and the actual trading is down -4%. Choppy whipsaw slop is Kryptonite against algorithms. Keybot the Quant exited SSO and entered SH dropping down into the single ETF's again due to the whipsaw. The model will remain in single ETF's until early April to reduce risk.

This week, the bears had the ball and choked. The bulls took the ball and they fumbled. The bears have the ball back, running down field, but their shoes are untied and may trip up the furry critters. It is a coin-flip stock market. Jobs report on deck. Everyone's Working for the Weekend. Loverboy. This song would play non-stop on the Friday's during the 1980's into the 90's, even into the 00's. It was the end of the work week anthem that begins with some cowbell. Two days of freedom ahead for the working stiffs.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/5/26; 12:21 PM EST = -22; signal line is +4; go short 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.1%)
3/5/26; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long
3/4/26; 10:22 AM EST = +10; signal line is +6; go long 6866 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.9%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side this morning at SPX 6866 about an hour after the opening bell. It is more choppy, whipsaw slop. The whole year is sideways chop suey chewing up bulls and bears alike. It is the worst markets for algorithms to operate in and some houses will pull the plug on their models since they get whipsawed too much. The quant does not care which direction the stock market goes in but it is important to at least have a short trend in that direction.

Today reverses yesterday's weakness in chips and copper so stocks bounce. SOX 7860 and CPER 35.65 are the two lines in the sand. Bulls need to keep these on their side and at the same time boost retail stocks and banks, and lower volatility.

Bears need to push SOX below 7860 and/or CPER below 35.65 and they are back in business. Any 1 of the 2 would do and the quant would be back in position to flip short. Thus, the stock market remains a sloppy sideways coin-flip this year and we are already into March.

Semiconductors and copper tell you the path forward. Do not be surprised to see another whipsaw back to the short side.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading are flat or a marginal loss. The benchmark SPX is flatter than a newlywed's souffle this year while the quant program is down about -4% and the actual trading generated by the quant is down a couple percent in 2026. Keybot the Quant exits DOG and enters SSO now back into the 2x ETF's since the internal whipsaw timer expires. This may not be good because stocks remain whipsaw slop and it is better to be in the single ETF's now to reduce risk, however, Keybot is smarter than humans so we will see what the 1's and 0's say.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/4/26; 10:22 AM EST = +10; signal line is +6; go long 6866 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.9%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.4%)
3/4/26; 10:12 AM EST = +10; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains short
3/4/26; 9:44 AM EST = -6; signal line is +7
3/4/26; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
3/3/26; 3:53 PM EST = -22; signal line is +8
3/3/26; 2:42 PM EST = -6; signal line is +9
3/3/26; 2:33 PM EST = -22; signal line is +10
3/3/26; 1:12 PM EST = -6; signal line is +11
3/3/26; 12:06 PM EST = -22; signal line is +12
3/3/26; 11:07 AM EST = -6; signal line is +14
3/3/26; 9:40 AM EST = -22; signal line is +13
3/3/26; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is +14
3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is +14
2/26/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 2:38 PM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/26/26; 11:28 AM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 10:55 AM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/26/26; 10:20 AM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 9:40 AM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/24/26; 2:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is +14
2/24/26; 1:57 PM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/24/26; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +14
2/23/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6828 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears come to play today. Bears whack chips and copper lower dragging them into the bear camp creating a bloody day on Wall and Broad. The bears are cruising with the algo number 35 points below the signal line.

Bears need to keep semiconductors and copper weak to continue the downside decay in the stock market. Bulls need one of the metrics to turn bullish to stop the selling pressure. The lines in the sand identified by the robot are SOX 7867 and CPER 35.64, respectively. The current prices creating the stock market negativity are below each line in the sand.

If SOX remains below 7867 and CPER below 35.64, the selling in the stock market will continue. The beatings will continue until moral improves.

Bulls need either metric to turn bullish and that will be enough to stop the selling and equities will muddle along sideways. Bulls likely need both metrics to turn bullish to stage a relief rally but even that may not be enough to position the quant to flip long. Let's see what the bears got over the coming days.

Neil Sedaka croaked. That dude wrote a lot of hit songs. Humorously, with that high voice (instead of a soprano he would be called a 'boyish tenor'), he did not reach puberty until he was 30. At high school dances in the 60's and 70's, the boys would muster up courage to ask that pretty classmate to dance, and there would be a Neil Sedaka song playing in the background. Breakin' Up Is Hard to Do.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/3/26; 9:40 AM EST = -22; signal line is +13
3/3/26; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is +14
3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is +14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. As everyone talks about chips and utilities, and banks, and of course the new war in the Middle East that King Donnie started, retail stocks are the main parameter impacting stock market direction currently.

Oil will likely pop higher as bombs are dropped on Iran. Futures will trade this evening at 6 PM EST so that will provide the first gauge of the war along with Asia trading overnight. Trumpski will probably provide positive talking points between 3 PM and 6 PM today to try and goose the futures knowing that they will take a hit.

The retail line in the sand is the XRT 87.78 palindrome. As retail stocks go, so goes the stock market. XRT begins the week at 86.98, in the bear camp, creating market negativity. If XRT remains bearish, the stock market will weaken in proportion to the weakness in copper, chips and utes.

If the bulls can push XRT back above 87.78, they are back in biz. This was the struggle on Thursday and each time the bulls achieved this goal, they were punched in the face and fell back below. If the bulls turn XRT positive, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX rallies above 6879 heading higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. This scenario may not even be possible due to the new war that King Trump started this weekend but you have to wait and see how the numbers play out overnight.

The bulls also need lower volatility to prove they can send stocks higher especially to the SPX 8K+ targets most on Wall Street are touting for this year, with less than 10 months remaining already. Thus, the Wall Street analysts and strategists believe the SPX will gain over 100 points per month for every month for the remainder of the year. What are they smoking? It must be some really good stuff.

Bulls have no hope at taking stocks higher unless they push XRT above 87.78 and VIX below 17.35. Even if stocks would rally, and retail stocks rally, and the quant flips long, if the VIX does not drop below 17.35 it will not matter. Stocks will reverse and fall apart. Bulls desperately need lower volatility and it will likely spike overnight due to the new war.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. Eve of Destruction. The pounding of the drums, the pride and disgrace.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is +14
2/26/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +15

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as this year's choppy whipsaw slop continues. Tomorrow is the last trading day of February and March trading begins Monday. The bears are in charge but only with the algo number 5 points below the signal line that is nothing to write home about. You can see the choppy turmoil with the model wanting to flip long but just as quick wanting to stay in the bear camp, then back again.

The show today was retail stocks and volatility both creating stock market negativity. The bull/bear lines in the sand are the XRT 87.78 palindrome and VIX 17.35. The XRT is below 87.78 and the VIX above 17.35 creating stock market negativity. Bulls need one or both of these metrics to turn bullish if they want the ball back. If 1 of the 2 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX rallies above 6947, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Bears need to keep retail stocks and vol in their camp. At the same time, the bears need to pull copper lower and that would signal that the real carnage lower for equities is about to begin.

Bears need the red metal to falter while the bulls need stronger retail stocks and lower vol. All is quiet on the Iranian front. War by Edwin Starr.

3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 2:38 PM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/26/26; 11:28 AM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 10:55 AM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/26/26; 10:20 AM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 9:40 AM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/24/26; 2:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is +14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number only 4 points below the signal line. You saw copper rally so you knew the bulls had an edge and stocks floated higher. You watched XRT and it crossed above its 87.78 bull/bear line in the sand, a palindrome, creating the afternoon orgy, but it did not last long, and retail stocks fell on their swords, stumbling lower, XRT turning bearish again below 87.78 so you knew the bulls did not have enough gusto.

Three parameters are running the stock market show as King Donnie prepares for the State of the Onion speech tonight. An aide is cleaning a jelly stain off his silk tie while another is shining his wingtips with a shammy and another is holding a cardboard sleeve of McDonalds McNuggets that he is snacking on. The orange head's words will impact specific stocks tomorrow.

Retail stocks, volatility and copper are running the show. Bears are in control of the stock market and need weaker copper to prove they got game. Bears need CPER below 45.44 that represents a big -2.4% drop in copper futures overnight. That is substantive but when commodities decide to move, they move big.

Bulls need either XRT above 87.78, that they attained today, but choked, and could not hold on, and/or VIX below 17.38. XRT is going to tell you market direction. As retail stocks go, so goes the stock market. Bulls desperately need VIX below 17.38 or they got buptkis despite any rally that occurs. Bears keep chuckling and slapping bulls around with the elevated volatility knowing that it is the bull's Kryptonite.

If bulls turn either XRT or VIX bullish, either one will do, and if the SPX rises about 9 points, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, so it is on a silver platter if the bulls want it. If both parameters turn bullish, stocks are going to rally bigtime.

3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/24/26; 2:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is +14
2/24/26; 1:57 PM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/24/26; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +14
2/23/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6828 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning just before munchtime at SPX 6828. Retail stocks fail, banks collapse as the private equity companies twisted-up into the AI mess fall apart, and software stocks stumble since AI can probably do their job.

The bears have the ball but the algo number is only 6 points below the signal line that is not much of anything. Bears need CPER below 35.38, weaker copper, and price is only pennies away, to prove they got game. The bear claws will then begin slashing relentlessly.

The bulls need retail stocks to recover and XRT back above 87.68. This will immediately stop the stock market selling and reinforce a recovery rally. Thus, the game is retail stocks versus copper. Bears win with weaker copper but bulls will battle back with stronger retail stocks.

On the last trade that ran for about 3 days, the algo program loses about a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent mainly due to today's stock market pullback. For the year thus far with almost 2 months in the bag, the SPX is down marginally on the year. The quant program is down about three percent and the actual trading generated by the quant is down about three percent. Everybody gets chopped up in sideways whipsaw slop. Keybot the Quant exited DIA and entered DOG.

Retail stocks and copper will tell you if the bears got game or if they will fold like a cheap suit.

3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/24/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6828 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.5%)
2/23/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +13
2/20/26; 1:42 PM EST = +24; signal line is +13
2/20/26; 11:30 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 3:08 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 2:36 PM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/19/26; 1:47 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 1:25 PM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/19/26; 10:12 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/18/26; 9:59 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14; go long 6880 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = -0.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 11 points above the signal line that is not an enthusiastic endorsement of the bullish case. Nonetheless, the bulls lead the stock market parade getting boosted by retail stocks and copper in recent days. Bears hang their hats on banks and volatility that are creating stock market negativity.

The quant is calling out the latest bull/bear lines in the sand for these 4 parameters currently controlling market direction; respectively, XRT 87.68, CPER 35.29, XLF 53.47 and VIX 17.50. Nothing else matters. You do not even have to watch the stock indexes; watch these 4 metrics and you will know the direction of the stock market.

Bulls are in charge right now and need XLF above 53.47 and VIX below 17.50 that will catapult the SPX above 7K. Vol is key. It does not matter that the bulls are winning now because if they cannot get the VIX below 17.50, they have buptkis and stocks will selloff again. It is critical that bulls push VIX below 17.50, if not, and if vol starts trending higher, the stock market will drop like a rock.

Bears need either XRT below 87.68 and/or CPER below 35.29. XRT is the top dog controlling market direction (retail stocks) and many retail yearnings are on tap in the days ahead after WMT last week. If XRT falls below 87.68, and if the SPX drops under 6836, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Getting the retail sector to turn negative may come easy, but the SPX would need to drop about 74 points. Copper futures need to drop about -2.4% to help the bears another tall order since everybody and his brother wants to buy the red metal.

Banks are struggling and the VIX may remain elevated due to King Donnie's aggression in the Middle East. Copper may remain bullish since a few percent drop may be difficult to achieve. That leaves the XRT 87.68 line in the sand as the top dog controlling the stock market now. The bulls need VIX below 17.50 for the umpteenth time, otherwise, they will fold like a cheap suit going forward.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Tuesday morning, Mexico's Flag Day, shortly after the opening bell. New York City is going to get pummeled with snow today so that may impact trading tomorrow. For now, it is time to enjoy the Sunday at Itchykoo Park with the Small Faces.

3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/24/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +13
2/20/26; 1:42 PM EST = +24; signal line is +13
2/20/26; 11:30 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 3:08 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 2:36 PM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/19/26; 1:47 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 1:25 PM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/19/26; 10:12 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/18/26; 9:59 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14; go long 6880 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = -0.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side this morning at SPX 6880 after the opening bell as the sideways choppy pig slop continues this year. 2026 is almost 2 months along and there is nothing to show for it except chop suey. The choppy markets chew up bulls and bears alike, and even algo's, but the jukes and jives continue.

Doctor Copper receives a shot of morphine and is up dancing around creating bullishness again. Ditto retail sales. These two metrics shot the stock market higher and enough to cause the robot to flip long this morning. Stocks are still going nowhere because after todays theatrics, the SPX sits at 6881.

Thursday is a tag team cage match with the bullish retail stocks and copper versus the bearish financials and volatility. These metrics tell you the stock market direction ahead.

Bulls need XLF above 53.49 and/or VIX below 17.52 to prove they got game and SPX 7K will be on tap.

Bears need to pull XRT below 87.62 and/or CPER below 35.18. Either one will do to immediately stop the rally and create stock market sogginess. If both fail, stocks will reverse hard to the downside. If 1 of the 2 turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6850, the quant will likely flip short, so the drama continues. If the status quo remains, stocks will muddle along sideways until one of the parameters flinch and that will tell you the answer.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading gain about a percent. For the year thus far, consisting of choppy whipsaw slop, the benchmark S&P 500, the US stock market, is up about a percent. The Keybot the Quant program is down about three percent and the actual trading is down a percent on the year. It is a whole lot of nothing with stocks doing a lot of gyrating, but not moving anywhere, like Waylon and Jessi singing at the honky-tonk last night. Great duet. Honky Tonk Angels. Keybot exits DOG and enters DIA remaining in the single ETF's until the whipsaw timer expires that should be 3/3/26 when 2x ETF's will be in the cue again, if another whipsaw does not occur before then.

Retail sales are likely going to tell the story tomorrow and lo and behold, WMT earnings are on tap in the morning. It is all set up for the bulls and bears and Walmart decides who is king. The Easter stuff is being put out on the shelves as they try to unload massive Valentines Day junk that no one wanted, or could afford to buy. It sits there even at 50% off that is probably the cost of goods sold for Walmart (about where they breakeven on the product hoping to just usher it out the door). Cupid is replaced by the Easter Bunny. Sammy Cooke sang Cupid that was a bigtime hit song.

2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/18/26; 9:59 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14; go long 6880 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = -0.6%)
2/18/26; 9:47 AM EST = +24; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
2/18/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +13
2/18/26; 9:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is +14
2/17/26; 10:12 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16
2/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/13/26; 11:54 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 11:12 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/12/26; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 8:54 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/12/26; 8:46 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 2:52 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 2:29 PM EST = +22; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 11:06 AM EST = +8; signal line is +15
2/11/26; 11:02 AM EST = -8; signal line is +15; go short 6941 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and the position is reinforced with Doctor Copper falling out of bed this morning onto the top of retail stocks and then both fell down the cellar steps. The bears have copper, retail stocks, banks and volatility in their camp. The bears are in charge with the algo number 25 points below the signal line.

The bears are cruising taking stocks lower and will create carnage if the chips, commodities and utilities would weaken.

The bulls need at least 2 of the following 4 lines in the sand to turn bullish if they want to flip the robot to the long side; XRT 87.58, CPER 35.18, XLF 53.50 and VIX 17.52. If none of the 4 turn bullish, there will be further Hell to pay. 1 of the 4 turning bullish will stop the downside slide in stocks. If 2 of the 4 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side back in play, and if the SPX moves above 6867, Keybot the Quant would likely flip long.

The bulls need stronger retail stocks, copper, and banks, and lower volatility. Bulls are screwed going forward unless they jam the VIX back below 17.52.

The robot prints a prescheduled number in the morning, on Ash Wednesday. Today is the Lunar New year, the new moon peaks for the month so this may be a soggy time for stocks, and Fat Tuesday. If Iran will be hit by Israel and the United States, it will likely be over the coming days under the new moon since the Allies have the superior night vision equipment and weaponry.

Another prescheduled number prints on Friday shortly after the opening bell. The stock market casino is swinging. The gamblers sit down to try their luck against Kenny, The Gambler.

2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/18/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/17/26; 10:12 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16
2/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot wants to go long with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. The internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move. If the SPX moves above 6882, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That represents a +46 gain so the bulls have some work to do.

US markets are closed tomorrow for the Presidents Day holiday and trading resumes on Tuesday so the bulls need to show up with S&P futures at +46 and higher.

The battle for market direction is controlled by retail stocks and copper creating bullishness versus banks and volatility creating bearishness. Whichever team gains the third member, that is the direction of stocks.

The bears need XRT below 87.53 and/or CPER below 35.18. Bears need weaker retail stocks and WMT will be a focus in the week ahead. Copper futures need to drop about -1.1% to help the bears so keep an eye on the red metal. The copper orgy may have ran its course.

The bulls need XLF above 54 but now has a 51 handle and sinking faster than the middle class. Bulls need VIX below 17.35 to get back in the game. Volatility is key. Plain and simple. If VIX remains above 17.35, the bears will win going forward. If VIX drops below 17.35, the bulls are back in biz and stocks will begin moving higher again.

Thus, watch XRT 87.53, CPER 35.18 and VIX 17.35 to forecast the stock market direction over the coming days. The banksters will probably languish.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers during the holiday-shortened week one on Wednesday morning and the other on Friday morning. Bulls will root for lower vol while bears will cheer for weaker retail stocks and copper. We may be heading down Copperhead Road again, so be careful down that way.

2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/18/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/13/26; 11:54 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. The internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the flip to the long side yet so here we sit through the Presidents Day holiday on Monday. Stocks will trade again on Tuesday.

Utilities are having an orgy party. The move was obscene last week and no one talks about it. The action in utilities will help create ongoing buoyancy in stocks. The four parameters that are controlling stock market direction now are retail stocks, banks, volatility, and, ......  wait for it...... wait a bit longer .... copper. Metals have been in the bull camp so it is interesting to see that they may be running out of gas.

Utes, retail stocks and copper are creating stock market bullishness. Banks and volatility are creating bearishness. Retail stocks rallied on Friday that helped to keep the broad stock market buoyant.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/13/26; 11:54 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 11:12 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/12/26; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 8:54 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/12/26; 8:46 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 2:52 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is back on the short side at SPX 6941 before munchtime today. The tug-o-war continues. The jobs number was better than expected so traders and investors do not expect rate cuts anytime soon. The absence of easy money rate cuts, that pump stocks higher to reward the wealthy class, creates the sogginess in stocks today. It is called crony capitalism filth.

Utes, retail stocks, banksters and volatility are all that matter. Utilities must have taken Viagra because the move higher was obscene helping the bulls.

The other three parameters, however, are in the bear camp creating the weak stock market and the flip short today for the quant. The algo number is only 8 points below the signal line so the robot may flip back long tomorrow. The price action is nauseating.

No wonder the bulls would not let utilities fall and instead kept pumping Ethel all day long. UTIL leaps to 1120 and it is understandable why. Next week, the 1112 line in the sand is meaningless and replaced with 1127. Thus, the bulls are trying to pump UTIL up towards or over 1127 to start next week on a high note. There are two days remaining this week so watch UTIL, or DJU, and where it ends at 4 PM EST Friday since that will provide a heads-up for Tuesday (Monday closed for Presidents Day). If UTIL is above 1127 to start next week, it is happy time for bulls. If UTIL starts the week below 1127, there is likely Hell to pay. If UTIL falls below 1112 tomorrow or Friday, the gates to Hades will open.

Bulls need XRT above 87.53, XLF above 54.02, and or VIX below 17.24. Any of the three could flip bullish tomorrow. The bulls only need one to turn bullish and that will set things up for a rally, and 2 of the 3 will send stocks strongly higher, and 3 of 3 turning bullish will create a party atmosphere into the weekend with a Monday holiday. If all 3 remain bearish tomorrow and Friday, it is an old man holding a lantern on a dark sidewalk telling you that 'the end is nigh'.

On the last trade that ran for three days, the algo program and the actual trading each log marginal gains. For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about a percent, the quant program is down about -3% and the actual trading is down about a percent. It is a whole lot of nothing as the chop suey is rammed down everyone's throats. Keybot the Quant exits DIA and enters DOG.

You can watch utes, retail stocks, banks and volatility and ignore everything else. Let's see if the bears got game or if they will fold like a cheap suit. Sharp Dressed Man. Lovely ladies. ZZ Top.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/11/26; 2:52 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 2:29 PM EST = +22; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 11:06 AM EST = +8; signal line is +15
2/11/26; 11:02 AM EST = -8; signal line is +15; go short 6941 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.2%)
2/11/26; 10:58 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/11/26; 10:25 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
2/11/26; 10:03 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17
2/11/26; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 8:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16
2/10/26; 3:59 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 1:46 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 1:07 PM EST = +8; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 12:57 PM EST = +22; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 9:51 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16
2/9/26; 3:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
2/9/26; 3:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/9/26; 11:44 AM EST = +38; signal line is +14
2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12
2/6/26; 12:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +11; go long 6908 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but champing at the bit to go short. The internal parameters will not permit the move yet with the algo number 8 points below the signal line. Today was nutso as the odd market behavior continues. Four parameters are controlling stock market direction currently.

Banks started out happy today but rolled over due to weak insurers and reinsurers (the insurers that insure the insurers) taking the stock market down. Utilities catapult to the moon on more data center hype and billions upon billions of dollars being spent on technology that can make endless funny video shorts.

The Fed and others were jamming volatility low to help stocks recover but that task was abandoned and led to lower stocks in the afternoon. On top of all this price action, retail stocks decide to sh*t the bed at the end of the day on weak earnings numbers. The wealthy class enjoyed lavish expensive holiday gifts this season while the majority of America made cookies and exchanged tins after shopping for Christmas presents at the local thrift store; the have's and have-not's of America.

So that is the mess that is the stock market that has been on hold this week waiting for the jobs report tomorrow morning, on a Wednesday. Jackasses. With all this drama ongoing, the robot wants to flip to the short side. We shall see if the jobs numbers change the scenario.

The robot wants to flip short now and all it needs is for the SPX to drop 4 points below 6938. It is on a silver platter for the bears if they want it. The bears also need to pull UTIL below 1111.57, only 4 pennies away at 1111.61 creating bullishness in stocks. How about a shout-out to the robot for telling yinz to watch 1111.57 and price closes at 1111.61. Come on now. Who else told you that target number before it would happen? No one. Keep an eye on 1111.57 since it obviously takes on import now.

So the bears need SPX below 6938 to flip the quant short, all things staying the same as they are now, and will receive extra downside gusto if UTIL fails below 1111.57.

The bulls need XLF above 54.03, XRT above 87.53 and/or VIX below 17.22. All 3 metrics are creating the bearishness in the stock market right now. If the bulls can get at least one of the three in their camp, they will be back in business with no fears of downside. You can gauge upside strength in stocks by how many of the three turn bullish. If all three remain bearish, it is time to gird your loins because stocks will likely falter and weaken. Easy-peasy.

Keybot the Quant prints the prescheduled number for this week tomorrow morning before the opening bell. Bulls and bears are in their camps getting ready for the big battle tomorrow. A lonely harmonica plays "Shenandoah" that echoes down the hollow. Both sides know the stakes are high tomorrow and only one side can win. Such a sad song during war because men knew that some of them would die in tomorrow's battle.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/11/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/10/26; 3:59 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 1:46 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 1:07 PM EST = +8; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 12:57 PM EST = +22; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 9:51 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16
2/9/26; 3:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
2/9/26; 3:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/9/26; 11:44 AM EST = +38; signal line is +14
2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as the sloppy market action continues. The euphoric orgy on Friday is one for the record books. Interestingly, the buying volume in that party atmosphere could not overcome any of the last three days' selling volume. This activity hints that the smart money is ditching stocks left and right as the dumb money is tripping over each other to buy, buy, buy, like the guy on television says, afraid of missing the next big up move. Time will tell. The algo number is 12 points above the signal line giving the nod to the bulls.

Utilities, banks and volatility are the key stock market drivers lately. The utility lines in the sand are UTIL 1069 and UTIL 1112. Price begins the week at 1089 in the middle. UTIL is below 1112 creating stock market bearishness while it is also above 1069 creating market bullishness. The next month is critical to find out if a bigtime crash is at hand. It is time to sh*t, or get off the pot.

If UTIL slips below 1069, it is setting the stock market up for a major drop if not an all-out crash. If UTIL does not fall below 1069, any pullback in stocks will be run of the mill and nothing to get too worked up about. The 1069 is a warning that blood and carnage is ahead. If UTIL pops above 1112, the bulls have the upper hand going forward and any significant top in the market is likely off the table for several weeks forward even a month or three. The 1107 to 1128 range is key for the next month. Bulls need to get up into this range and they will be fine. Bears need the 1069 to fail. If bears do not pull it off over the next month, they will likely run out of gas and fold like a cheap suit.

XLF 53.99 is the line in the sand with price at 54.26. The banksters created much of the Friday joy. If XLF falls below 53.99, the stock market will noticeably weaken.

VIX 17.10 is the line in the sand with price at a patriotic 17.76. It is extremely odd that VIX did not drop below 17 on Friday with the euphoric rally. The bulls need VIX to drop below 17.10 in overnight trading into the Monday session to prove that they got game. If VIX remains above 17.10, the rally joy will turn into sadness and despair. Bulls must push VIX below 17 or they got nothing.

Bulls need UTIL above 1112 and VIX below 17.10. Either one will show that the bulls got strength and then they will work towards securing the other parameter.

Bears need UTIL below 1069 that will create serious stock market pain and XLF below 53.99. Bears got nothing unless they can beat the banksters down.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Wednesday. The Presidents Day holiday is the following Monday so stocks may be buoyant on Thursday and Friday heading into the 3-day weekend. Hey Andy, are you goofin' on Elvis, are you having fun? Man on the Moon.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/11/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12
2/6/26; 12:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +11; go long 6908 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at muchtime at SPX 6908 where it started from 3 days before. The choppy whipsaw garbage slop continues just like early last year. Banks and volatility control the show.

Banks rally this morning so stocks move higher and then the buy-the-dip crowd goes insane buying any stock with a heartbeat. XLF 53.97 is the line in the sand. Price is above creating bullishness. When XLF falls back below 53.97, stocks will turn sour again.

VIX 17.11 is a line in the sand. Price is above creating bearishness in the stock market. XLF and VIX are the yin and the yang of the market these days. Either VIX drops below 17.11 to signal the all-clear for a huge upside rally, or, XLF falls below 53.97 to signal blood and carnage ahead for stocks.

On the last trade that ran for 3 days, the quant program was flat but the actual trading gains a percent because the robot was in PSQ an inverse tech ETF and that is the sector that got crushed. Sometimes the robot benefits from the ETF in the hopper and sometimes it goes the other way. For the year thus far, now into February on the back side of winter in the northern hemisphere, the benchmark SPX is up a percent. The quant program is down about -4% in 2026 and the actual trading generated by the quant is down a couple percent. Keybot the Quant exited PSQ and entered DIA.

The banks and volatility will tell you the path forward. Do not be surprised if a whipsaw occurs back to the short side over the next day or three. 

2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/6/26; 12:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +11; go long 6908 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.5%)
2/6/26; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
2/6/26; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
2/5/26; 10:43 AM EST = +8; signal line is +11
2/5/26; 10:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is +11
2/4/26; 3:59 PM EST = +8; signal line is +12
2/4/26; 2:52 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
2/4/26; 1:29 PM EST = +8; signal line is +12
2/4/26; 12:43 PM EST = -8; signal line is +12
2/4/26; 12:38 PM EST = +8; signal line is +14
2/4/26; 12:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains short
2/4/26; 11:49 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14
2/4/26; 11:35 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains short
2/3/26; 12:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6904 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.8%)