STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short, but wants to go long, as the market turmoil continues. It is all about semiconductors and copper. Bulls came to play on Monday with their chests puffed out but their hopes deflated on Tuesday unable to flip the model long despite the algo number 10 points above the signal line.  The internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. Today will be interesting with CPI data on deck in three hours.

CPER 35.68 and SOX 7801 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. Both are above creating stock market bullishness but the bulls are unable to capitalize on the situation, at least not yet.

Copper futures need to drop about a percent to send CPER to the bear camp, and keep the bears in business, and copper is down -1.6% so it looks like the bears want to maintain control of the stock market. S&P futures were positive overnight but are now down -15 points as copper leaks lower.

If bulls send the SPX above 6845 moving higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long but this is a tall ask since the SPX begins at 6781. At the same time, copper is down more than -1% so the bears want to flex their muscles and maintain their grip on the market. In the 1960's, kids in southwestern Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh area, would watch the Ricki & Copper television show; Ricki Wertz and her friendly dog, Copper. 

3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. The algo number is 10 points above the signal line. Tomorrow will be a big day. Stocks were down big until King Donnie said the Iran War was near completion. Of course it is a bloviation but the markets did not care. Oil drops like a rock and equities explode higher intraday.

Copper and chips create the big rally today. Copper turned positive and that is when the stock market turned around and started to rally to beat The Band. The Weight. Watch the SOX 7796 and CPER 35.66 lines in the sand. Price is above both creating the positivity in equites.

Bears need to turn 1 of the 2 metrics bearish to breathe easier and resume the dark clouds and negativity. Bulls need the SPX to rise above 6810 and Keybot the Quant will likely flip long so a rise of +14 points is needed in the S&P futures. Oh my. Donnie Trumpski was talking a minute ago and S&P futures are down -22 points. This year's sideways whipsaw choppy pig slop continues. Bulls need the SPX to move slowly higher and not gap-up at the opening bell. If a gap-up occurs, the robot will likely delay the move for 90 minutes.

Bears win with weaker chips and copper and win big if both turn bearish again. Bulls win with the SPX above 6810. The beat goes on. Ba-la, ba-la, la-la. Monday Monday. Monday, Monday, can't trust that day.

3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short
3/9/26; 3:26 PM EST = -6; signal line is +0
3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = -22; signal line is +1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama intensifies. Oil futures shoot over one hundo. The clock just fell off the wall in the Oval Office. King Donnie's orange head is turning red worrying about the stock market going down the drain due to the Iran War.

S&P futures are down over 100 points responding to the wild spike higher in oil prices, that will create higher gasoline prices, that will negatively impact consumer sentiment and spending.

The bears have the ball with the algo number 23 points below the signal line. Yinz probably noticed the drama with the red metal. As copper goes, so goes the stock market. The quant identifies CPER 35.65 as the bull/bear line in the sand and price closed for the weekend at...... wait for it ......... wait a bit longer for it ........ 35.63, in the bear camp creating negativity, but only two cents away from the bull camp.

If CPER remains below 35.65 and moving lower, the stock market will deteriorate. If CPER moves above 35.65, the stock market selling will stop and stabilize. Thus, watch copper futures overnight. Whatever direction they go, the stock market will likely follow. Bears benefit from weaker copper, weaker utilities, and weaker commodities. Copper is getting bludgeoned down -2.5%.

Bulls need stronger copper and also higher chips, retail stocks, and banks, and lower volatility. A lot can happen overnight, but it appears that the bears want to come and play tomorrow. Let It Drop.

3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = -22; signal line is +1
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST = -22; signal line is +2
3/5/26; 12:21 PM EST = -22; signal line is +4; go short 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side at SPX 6805 not much of a surprise considering the non-stop sideways choppy slop this year. The stock market is controlled by chips and copper right now. Both jump back into the bear camp creating the flip back to the short side.

SOX 7857 and CPER 35.65 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. The path ahead remains a coin-flip because both metrics can easily flip bullish tomorrow, especially after the important US Monthly Jobs Report. The drop today and market turmoil is a surprise from the context that a flat boring day would have been expected into the jobs numbers in the morning. King Donnie Trumpski (the president) is given the jobs numbers the day before so did the orange head provide a heads-up to his wealthy friends so they could insider trade today?

SOX is at 7822 recovering late-day only 35 points away from the line in the sand so the semiconductors can easily flip back into the bull camp in the morning. CPER is at the 35.58 only 7 cents from the line in the sand so copper can easily flip back into the bull camp in the morning. Bulls need 1 of the 2 to turn bullish to stop the market selling and both are likely needed to flip the model long. If both parameters turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 6870, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw long. The whipsaw slop this year is getting old.

Watch chips and copper because they tell you the direction of the stock market. 

On the last trade that ran for about 8-1/2 hours, a whipsaw, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses -1.7%. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is down almost a percent. The quant program is down -5% and the actual trading is down -4%. Choppy whipsaw slop is Kryptonite against algorithms. Keybot the Quant exited SSO and entered SH dropping down into the single ETF's again due to the whipsaw. The model will remain in single ETF's until early April to reduce risk.

This week, the bears had the ball and choked. The bulls took the ball and they fumbled. The bears have the ball back, running down field, but their shoes are untied and may trip up the furry critters. It is a coin-flip stock market. Jobs report on deck. Everyone's Working for the Weekend. Loverboy. This song would play non-stop on the Friday's during the 1980's into the 90's, even into the 00's. It was the end of the work week anthem that begins with some cowbell. Two days of freedom ahead for the working stiffs.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/5/26; 12:21 PM EST = -22; signal line is +4; go short 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.1%)
3/5/26; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long
3/4/26; 10:22 AM EST = +10; signal line is +6; go long 6866 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.9%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side this morning at SPX 6866 about an hour after the opening bell. It is more choppy, whipsaw slop. The whole year is sideways chop suey chewing up bulls and bears alike. It is the worst markets for algorithms to operate in and some houses will pull the plug on their models since they get whipsawed too much. The quant does not care which direction the stock market goes in but it is important to at least have a short trend in that direction.

Today reverses yesterday's weakness in chips and copper so stocks bounce. SOX 7860 and CPER 35.65 are the two lines in the sand. Bulls need to keep these on their side and at the same time boost retail stocks and banks, and lower volatility.

Bears need to push SOX below 7860 and/or CPER below 35.65 and they are back in business. Any 1 of the 2 would do and the quant would be back in position to flip short. Thus, the stock market remains a sloppy sideways coin-flip this year and we are already into March.

Semiconductors and copper tell you the path forward. Do not be surprised to see another whipsaw back to the short side.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading are flat or a marginal loss. The benchmark SPX is flatter than a newlywed's souffle this year while the quant program is down about -4% and the actual trading generated by the quant is down a couple percent in 2026. Keybot the Quant exits DOG and enters SSO now back into the 2x ETF's since the internal whipsaw timer expires. This may not be good because stocks remain whipsaw slop and it is better to be in the single ETF's now to reduce risk, however, Keybot is smarter than humans so we will see what the 1's and 0's say.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/4/26; 10:22 AM EST = +10; signal line is +6; go long 6866 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.9%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.4%)
3/4/26; 10:12 AM EST = +10; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains short
3/4/26; 9:44 AM EST = -6; signal line is +7
3/4/26; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
3/3/26; 3:53 PM EST = -22; signal line is +8
3/3/26; 2:42 PM EST = -6; signal line is +9
3/3/26; 2:33 PM EST = -22; signal line is +10
3/3/26; 1:12 PM EST = -6; signal line is +11
3/3/26; 12:06 PM EST = -22; signal line is +12
3/3/26; 11:07 AM EST = -6; signal line is +14
3/3/26; 9:40 AM EST = -22; signal line is +13
3/3/26; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is +14
3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is +14
2/26/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 2:38 PM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/26/26; 11:28 AM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 10:55 AM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/26/26; 10:20 AM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 9:40 AM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/24/26; 2:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is +14
2/24/26; 1:57 PM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/24/26; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +14
2/23/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6828 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears come to play today. Bears whack chips and copper lower dragging them into the bear camp creating a bloody day on Wall and Broad. The bears are cruising with the algo number 35 points below the signal line.

Bears need to keep semiconductors and copper weak to continue the downside decay in the stock market. Bulls need one of the metrics to turn bullish to stop the selling pressure. The lines in the sand identified by the robot are SOX 7867 and CPER 35.64, respectively. The current prices creating the stock market negativity are below each line in the sand.

If SOX remains below 7867 and CPER below 35.64, the selling in the stock market will continue. The beatings will continue until moral improves.

Bulls need either metric to turn bullish and that will be enough to stop the selling and equities will muddle along sideways. Bulls likely need both metrics to turn bullish to stage a relief rally but even that may not be enough to position the quant to flip long. Let's see what the bears got over the coming days.

Neil Sedaka croaked. That dude wrote a lot of hit songs. Humorously, with that high voice (instead of a soprano he would be called a 'boyish tenor'), he did not reach puberty until he was 30. At high school dances in the 60's and 70's, the boys would muster up courage to ask that pretty classmate to dance, and there would be a Neil Sedaka song playing in the background. Breakin' Up Is Hard to Do.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/3/26; 9:40 AM EST = -22; signal line is +13
3/3/26; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is +14
3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is +14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. As everyone talks about chips and utilities, and banks, and of course the new war in the Middle East that King Donnie started, retail stocks are the main parameter impacting stock market direction currently.

Oil will likely pop higher as bombs are dropped on Iran. Futures will trade this evening at 6 PM EST so that will provide the first gauge of the war along with Asia trading overnight. Trumpski will probably provide positive talking points between 3 PM and 6 PM today to try and goose the futures knowing that they will take a hit.

The retail line in the sand is the XRT 87.78 palindrome. As retail stocks go, so goes the stock market. XRT begins the week at 86.98, in the bear camp, creating market negativity. If XRT remains bearish, the stock market will weaken in proportion to the weakness in copper, chips and utes.

If the bulls can push XRT back above 87.78, they are back in biz. This was the struggle on Thursday and each time the bulls achieved this goal, they were punched in the face and fell back below. If the bulls turn XRT positive, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX rallies above 6879 heading higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. This scenario may not even be possible due to the new war that King Trump started this weekend but you have to wait and see how the numbers play out overnight.

The bulls also need lower volatility to prove they can send stocks higher especially to the SPX 8K+ targets most on Wall Street are touting for this year, with less than 10 months remaining already. Thus, the Wall Street analysts and strategists believe the SPX will gain over 100 points per month for every month for the remainder of the year. What are they smoking? It must be some really good stuff.

Bulls have no hope at taking stocks higher unless they push XRT above 87.78 and VIX below 17.35. Even if stocks would rally, and retail stocks rally, and the quant flips long, if the VIX does not drop below 17.35 it will not matter. Stocks will reverse and fall apart. Bulls desperately need lower volatility and it will likely spike overnight due to the new war.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. Eve of Destruction. The pounding of the drums, the pride and disgrace.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is +14
2/26/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +15

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as this year's choppy whipsaw slop continues. Tomorrow is the last trading day of February and March trading begins Monday. The bears are in charge but only with the algo number 5 points below the signal line that is nothing to write home about. You can see the choppy turmoil with the model wanting to flip long but just as quick wanting to stay in the bear camp, then back again.

The show today was retail stocks and volatility both creating stock market negativity. The bull/bear lines in the sand are the XRT 87.78 palindrome and VIX 17.35. The XRT is below 87.78 and the VIX above 17.35 creating stock market negativity. Bulls need one or both of these metrics to turn bullish if they want the ball back. If 1 of the 2 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX rallies above 6947, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Bears need to keep retail stocks and vol in their camp. At the same time, the bears need to pull copper lower and that would signal that the real carnage lower for equities is about to begin.

Bears need the red metal to falter while the bulls need stronger retail stocks and lower vol. All is quiet on the Iranian front. War by Edwin Starr.

3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 2:38 PM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/26/26; 11:28 AM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 10:55 AM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/26/26; 10:20 AM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 9:40 AM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/24/26; 2:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is +14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number only 4 points below the signal line. You saw copper rally so you knew the bulls had an edge and stocks floated higher. You watched XRT and it crossed above its 87.78 bull/bear line in the sand, a palindrome, creating the afternoon orgy, but it did not last long, and retail stocks fell on their swords, stumbling lower, XRT turning bearish again below 87.78 so you knew the bulls did not have enough gusto.

Three parameters are running the stock market show as King Donnie prepares for the State of the Onion speech tonight. An aide is cleaning a jelly stain off his silk tie while another is shining his wingtips with a shammy and another is holding a cardboard sleeve of McDonalds McNuggets that he is snacking on. The orange head's words will impact specific stocks tomorrow.

Retail stocks, volatility and copper are running the show. Bears are in control of the stock market and need weaker copper to prove they got game. Bears need CPER below 45.44 that represents a big -2.4% drop in copper futures overnight. That is substantive but when commodities decide to move, they move big.

Bulls need either XRT above 87.78, that they attained today, but choked, and could not hold on, and/or VIX below 17.38. XRT is going to tell you market direction. As retail stocks go, so goes the stock market. Bulls desperately need VIX below 17.38 or they got buptkis despite any rally that occurs. Bears keep chuckling and slapping bulls around with the elevated volatility knowing that it is the bull's Kryptonite.

If bulls turn either XRT or VIX bullish, either one will do, and if the SPX rises about 9 points, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, so it is on a silver platter if the bulls want it. If both parameters turn bullish, stocks are going to rally bigtime.

3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/24/26; 2:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is +14
2/24/26; 1:57 PM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/24/26; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +14
2/23/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6828 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning just before munchtime at SPX 6828. Retail stocks fail, banks collapse as the private equity companies twisted-up into the AI mess fall apart, and software stocks stumble since AI can probably do their job.

The bears have the ball but the algo number is only 6 points below the signal line that is not much of anything. Bears need CPER below 35.38, weaker copper, and price is only pennies away, to prove they got game. The bear claws will then begin slashing relentlessly.

The bulls need retail stocks to recover and XRT back above 87.68. This will immediately stop the stock market selling and reinforce a recovery rally. Thus, the game is retail stocks versus copper. Bears win with weaker copper but bulls will battle back with stronger retail stocks.

On the last trade that ran for about 3 days, the algo program loses about a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent mainly due to today's stock market pullback. For the year thus far with almost 2 months in the bag, the SPX is down marginally on the year. The quant program is down about three percent and the actual trading generated by the quant is down about three percent. Everybody gets chopped up in sideways whipsaw slop. Keybot the Quant exited DIA and entered DOG.

Retail stocks and copper will tell you if the bears got game or if they will fold like a cheap suit.

3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/24/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6828 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.5%)
2/23/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +13
2/20/26; 1:42 PM EST = +24; signal line is +13
2/20/26; 11:30 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 3:08 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 2:36 PM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/19/26; 1:47 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 1:25 PM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/19/26; 10:12 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/18/26; 9:59 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14; go long 6880 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = -0.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 11 points above the signal line that is not an enthusiastic endorsement of the bullish case. Nonetheless, the bulls lead the stock market parade getting boosted by retail stocks and copper in recent days. Bears hang their hats on banks and volatility that are creating stock market negativity.

The quant is calling out the latest bull/bear lines in the sand for these 4 parameters currently controlling market direction; respectively, XRT 87.68, CPER 35.29, XLF 53.47 and VIX 17.50. Nothing else matters. You do not even have to watch the stock indexes; watch these 4 metrics and you will know the direction of the stock market.

Bulls are in charge right now and need XLF above 53.47 and VIX below 17.50 that will catapult the SPX above 7K. Vol is key. It does not matter that the bulls are winning now because if they cannot get the VIX below 17.50, they have buptkis and stocks will selloff again. It is critical that bulls push VIX below 17.50, if not, and if vol starts trending higher, the stock market will drop like a rock.

Bears need either XRT below 87.68 and/or CPER below 35.29. XRT is the top dog controlling market direction (retail stocks) and many retail yearnings are on tap in the days ahead after WMT last week. If XRT falls below 87.68, and if the SPX drops under 6836, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Getting the retail sector to turn negative may come easy, but the SPX would need to drop about 74 points. Copper futures need to drop about -2.4% to help the bears another tall order since everybody and his brother wants to buy the red metal.

Banks are struggling and the VIX may remain elevated due to King Donnie's aggression in the Middle East. Copper may remain bullish since a few percent drop may be difficult to achieve. That leaves the XRT 87.68 line in the sand as the top dog controlling the stock market now. The bulls need VIX below 17.50 for the umpteenth time, otherwise, they will fold like a cheap suit going forward.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Tuesday morning, Mexico's Flag Day, shortly after the opening bell. New York City is going to get pummeled with snow today so that may impact trading tomorrow. For now, it is time to enjoy the Sunday at Itchykoo Park with the Small Faces.

3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/24/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +13
2/20/26; 1:42 PM EST = +24; signal line is +13
2/20/26; 11:30 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 3:08 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 2:36 PM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/19/26; 1:47 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 1:25 PM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/19/26; 10:12 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/18/26; 9:59 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14; go long 6880 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = -0.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side this morning at SPX 6880 after the opening bell as the sideways choppy pig slop continues this year. 2026 is almost 2 months along and there is nothing to show for it except chop suey. The choppy markets chew up bulls and bears alike, and even algo's, but the jukes and jives continue.

Doctor Copper receives a shot of morphine and is up dancing around creating bullishness again. Ditto retail sales. These two metrics shot the stock market higher and enough to cause the robot to flip long this morning. Stocks are still going nowhere because after todays theatrics, the SPX sits at 6881.

Thursday is a tag team cage match with the bullish retail stocks and copper versus the bearish financials and volatility. These metrics tell you the stock market direction ahead.

Bulls need XLF above 53.49 and/or VIX below 17.52 to prove they got game and SPX 7K will be on tap.

Bears need to pull XRT below 87.62 and/or CPER below 35.18. Either one will do to immediately stop the rally and create stock market sogginess. If both fail, stocks will reverse hard to the downside. If 1 of the 2 turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6850, the quant will likely flip short, so the drama continues. If the status quo remains, stocks will muddle along sideways until one of the parameters flinch and that will tell you the answer.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading gain about a percent. For the year thus far, consisting of choppy whipsaw slop, the benchmark S&P 500, the US stock market, is up about a percent. The Keybot the Quant program is down about three percent and the actual trading is down a percent on the year. It is a whole lot of nothing with stocks doing a lot of gyrating, but not moving anywhere, like Waylon and Jessi singing at the honky-tonk last night. Great duet. Honky Tonk Angels. Keybot exits DOG and enters DIA remaining in the single ETF's until the whipsaw timer expires that should be 3/3/26 when 2x ETF's will be in the cue again, if another whipsaw does not occur before then.

Retail sales are likely going to tell the story tomorrow and lo and behold, WMT earnings are on tap in the morning. It is all set up for the bulls and bears and Walmart decides who is king. The Easter stuff is being put out on the shelves as they try to unload massive Valentines Day junk that no one wanted, or could afford to buy. It sits there even at 50% off that is probably the cost of goods sold for Walmart (about where they breakeven on the product hoping to just usher it out the door). Cupid is replaced by the Easter Bunny. Sammy Cooke sang Cupid that was a bigtime hit song.

2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/18/26; 9:59 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14; go long 6880 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = -0.6%)
2/18/26; 9:47 AM EST = +24; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
2/18/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +13
2/18/26; 9:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is +14
2/17/26; 10:12 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16
2/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/13/26; 11:54 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 11:12 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/12/26; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 8:54 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/12/26; 8:46 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 2:52 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 2:29 PM EST = +22; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 11:06 AM EST = +8; signal line is +15
2/11/26; 11:02 AM EST = -8; signal line is +15; go short 6941 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and the position is reinforced with Doctor Copper falling out of bed this morning onto the top of retail stocks and then both fell down the cellar steps. The bears have copper, retail stocks, banks and volatility in their camp. The bears are in charge with the algo number 25 points below the signal line.

The bears are cruising taking stocks lower and will create carnage if the chips, commodities and utilities would weaken.

The bulls need at least 2 of the following 4 lines in the sand to turn bullish if they want to flip the robot to the long side; XRT 87.58, CPER 35.18, XLF 53.50 and VIX 17.52. If none of the 4 turn bullish, there will be further Hell to pay. 1 of the 4 turning bullish will stop the downside slide in stocks. If 2 of the 4 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side back in play, and if the SPX moves above 6867, Keybot the Quant would likely flip long.

The bulls need stronger retail stocks, copper, and banks, and lower volatility. Bulls are screwed going forward unless they jam the VIX back below 17.52.

The robot prints a prescheduled number in the morning, on Ash Wednesday. Today is the Lunar New year, the new moon peaks for the month so this may be a soggy time for stocks, and Fat Tuesday. If Iran will be hit by Israel and the United States, it will likely be over the coming days under the new moon since the Allies have the superior night vision equipment and weaponry.

Another prescheduled number prints on Friday shortly after the opening bell. The stock market casino is swinging. The gamblers sit down to try their luck against Kenny, The Gambler.

2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/18/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/17/26; 10:12 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16
2/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot wants to go long with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. The internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move. If the SPX moves above 6882, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That represents a +46 gain so the bulls have some work to do.

US markets are closed tomorrow for the Presidents Day holiday and trading resumes on Tuesday so the bulls need to show up with S&P futures at +46 and higher.

The battle for market direction is controlled by retail stocks and copper creating bullishness versus banks and volatility creating bearishness. Whichever team gains the third member, that is the direction of stocks.

The bears need XRT below 87.53 and/or CPER below 35.18. Bears need weaker retail stocks and WMT will be a focus in the week ahead. Copper futures need to drop about -1.1% to help the bears so keep an eye on the red metal. The copper orgy may have ran its course.

The bulls need XLF above 54 but now has a 51 handle and sinking faster than the middle class. Bulls need VIX below 17.35 to get back in the game. Volatility is key. Plain and simple. If VIX remains above 17.35, the bears will win going forward. If VIX drops below 17.35, the bulls are back in biz and stocks will begin moving higher again.

Thus, watch XRT 87.53, CPER 35.18 and VIX 17.35 to forecast the stock market direction over the coming days. The banksters will probably languish.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers during the holiday-shortened week one on Wednesday morning and the other on Friday morning. Bulls will root for lower vol while bears will cheer for weaker retail stocks and copper. We may be heading down Copperhead Road again, so be careful down that way.

2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/18/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/13/26; 11:54 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. The internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the flip to the long side yet so here we sit through the Presidents Day holiday on Monday. Stocks will trade again on Tuesday.

Utilities are having an orgy party. The move was obscene last week and no one talks about it. The action in utilities will help create ongoing buoyancy in stocks. The four parameters that are controlling stock market direction now are retail stocks, banks, volatility, and, ......  wait for it...... wait a bit longer .... copper. Metals have been in the bull camp so it is interesting to see that they may be running out of gas.

Utes, retail stocks and copper are creating stock market bullishness. Banks and volatility are creating bearishness. Retail stocks rallied on Friday that helped to keep the broad stock market buoyant.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/13/26; 11:54 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 11:12 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/12/26; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 8:54 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/12/26; 8:46 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 2:52 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is back on the short side at SPX 6941 before munchtime today. The tug-o-war continues. The jobs number was better than expected so traders and investors do not expect rate cuts anytime soon. The absence of easy money rate cuts, that pump stocks higher to reward the wealthy class, creates the sogginess in stocks today. It is called crony capitalism filth.

Utes, retail stocks, banksters and volatility are all that matter. Utilities must have taken Viagra because the move higher was obscene helping the bulls.

The other three parameters, however, are in the bear camp creating the weak stock market and the flip short today for the quant. The algo number is only 8 points below the signal line so the robot may flip back long tomorrow. The price action is nauseating.

No wonder the bulls would not let utilities fall and instead kept pumping Ethel all day long. UTIL leaps to 1120 and it is understandable why. Next week, the 1112 line in the sand is meaningless and replaced with 1127. Thus, the bulls are trying to pump UTIL up towards or over 1127 to start next week on a high note. There are two days remaining this week so watch UTIL, or DJU, and where it ends at 4 PM EST Friday since that will provide a heads-up for Tuesday (Monday closed for Presidents Day). If UTIL is above 1127 to start next week, it is happy time for bulls. If UTIL starts the week below 1127, there is likely Hell to pay. If UTIL falls below 1112 tomorrow or Friday, the gates to Hades will open.

Bulls need XRT above 87.53, XLF above 54.02, and or VIX below 17.24. Any of the three could flip bullish tomorrow. The bulls only need one to turn bullish and that will set things up for a rally, and 2 of the 3 will send stocks strongly higher, and 3 of 3 turning bullish will create a party atmosphere into the weekend with a Monday holiday. If all 3 remain bearish tomorrow and Friday, it is an old man holding a lantern on a dark sidewalk telling you that 'the end is nigh'.

On the last trade that ran for three days, the algo program and the actual trading each log marginal gains. For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about a percent, the quant program is down about -3% and the actual trading is down about a percent. It is a whole lot of nothing as the chop suey is rammed down everyone's throats. Keybot the Quant exits DIA and enters DOG.

You can watch utes, retail stocks, banks and volatility and ignore everything else. Let's see if the bears got game or if they will fold like a cheap suit. Sharp Dressed Man. Lovely ladies. ZZ Top.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/11/26; 2:52 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 2:29 PM EST = +22; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 11:06 AM EST = +8; signal line is +15
2/11/26; 11:02 AM EST = -8; signal line is +15; go short 6941 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.2%)
2/11/26; 10:58 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/11/26; 10:25 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
2/11/26; 10:03 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17
2/11/26; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 8:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16
2/10/26; 3:59 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 1:46 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 1:07 PM EST = +8; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 12:57 PM EST = +22; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 9:51 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16
2/9/26; 3:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
2/9/26; 3:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/9/26; 11:44 AM EST = +38; signal line is +14
2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12
2/6/26; 12:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +11; go long 6908 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but champing at the bit to go short. The internal parameters will not permit the move yet with the algo number 8 points below the signal line. Today was nutso as the odd market behavior continues. Four parameters are controlling stock market direction currently.

Banks started out happy today but rolled over due to weak insurers and reinsurers (the insurers that insure the insurers) taking the stock market down. Utilities catapult to the moon on more data center hype and billions upon billions of dollars being spent on technology that can make endless funny video shorts.

The Fed and others were jamming volatility low to help stocks recover but that task was abandoned and led to lower stocks in the afternoon. On top of all this price action, retail stocks decide to sh*t the bed at the end of the day on weak earnings numbers. The wealthy class enjoyed lavish expensive holiday gifts this season while the majority of America made cookies and exchanged tins after shopping for Christmas presents at the local thrift store; the have's and have-not's of America.

So that is the mess that is the stock market that has been on hold this week waiting for the jobs report tomorrow morning, on a Wednesday. Jackasses. With all this drama ongoing, the robot wants to flip to the short side. We shall see if the jobs numbers change the scenario.

The robot wants to flip short now and all it needs is for the SPX to drop 4 points below 6938. It is on a silver platter for the bears if they want it. The bears also need to pull UTIL below 1111.57, only 4 pennies away at 1111.61 creating bullishness in stocks. How about a shout-out to the robot for telling yinz to watch 1111.57 and price closes at 1111.61. Come on now. Who else told you that target number before it would happen? No one. Keep an eye on 1111.57 since it obviously takes on import now.

So the bears need SPX below 6938 to flip the quant short, all things staying the same as they are now, and will receive extra downside gusto if UTIL fails below 1111.57.

The bulls need XLF above 54.03, XRT above 87.53 and/or VIX below 17.22. All 3 metrics are creating the bearishness in the stock market right now. If the bulls can get at least one of the three in their camp, they will be back in business with no fears of downside. You can gauge upside strength in stocks by how many of the three turn bullish. If all three remain bearish, it is time to gird your loins because stocks will likely falter and weaken. Easy-peasy.

Keybot the Quant prints the prescheduled number for this week tomorrow morning before the opening bell. Bulls and bears are in their camps getting ready for the big battle tomorrow. A lonely harmonica plays "Shenandoah" that echoes down the hollow. Both sides know the stakes are high tomorrow and only one side can win. Such a sad song during war because men knew that some of them would die in tomorrow's battle.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/11/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/10/26; 3:59 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 1:46 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 1:07 PM EST = +8; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 12:57 PM EST = +22; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 9:51 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16
2/9/26; 3:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
2/9/26; 3:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/9/26; 11:44 AM EST = +38; signal line is +14
2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as the sloppy market action continues. The euphoric orgy on Friday is one for the record books. Interestingly, the buying volume in that party atmosphere could not overcome any of the last three days' selling volume. This activity hints that the smart money is ditching stocks left and right as the dumb money is tripping over each other to buy, buy, buy, like the guy on television says, afraid of missing the next big up move. Time will tell. The algo number is 12 points above the signal line giving the nod to the bulls.

Utilities, banks and volatility are the key stock market drivers lately. The utility lines in the sand are UTIL 1069 and UTIL 1112. Price begins the week at 1089 in the middle. UTIL is below 1112 creating stock market bearishness while it is also above 1069 creating market bullishness. The next month is critical to find out if a bigtime crash is at hand. It is time to sh*t, or get off the pot.

If UTIL slips below 1069, it is setting the stock market up for a major drop if not an all-out crash. If UTIL does not fall below 1069, any pullback in stocks will be run of the mill and nothing to get too worked up about. The 1069 is a warning that blood and carnage is ahead. If UTIL pops above 1112, the bulls have the upper hand going forward and any significant top in the market is likely off the table for several weeks forward even a month or three. The 1107 to 1128 range is key for the next month. Bulls need to get up into this range and they will be fine. Bears need the 1069 to fail. If bears do not pull it off over the next month, they will likely run out of gas and fold like a cheap suit.

XLF 53.99 is the line in the sand with price at 54.26. The banksters created much of the Friday joy. If XLF falls below 53.99, the stock market will noticeably weaken.

VIX 17.10 is the line in the sand with price at a patriotic 17.76. It is extremely odd that VIX did not drop below 17 on Friday with the euphoric rally. The bulls need VIX to drop below 17.10 in overnight trading into the Monday session to prove that they got game. If VIX remains above 17.10, the rally joy will turn into sadness and despair. Bulls must push VIX below 17 or they got nothing.

Bulls need UTIL above 1112 and VIX below 17.10. Either one will show that the bulls got strength and then they will work towards securing the other parameter.

Bears need UTIL below 1069 that will create serious stock market pain and XLF below 53.99. Bears got nothing unless they can beat the banksters down.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Wednesday. The Presidents Day holiday is the following Monday so stocks may be buoyant on Thursday and Friday heading into the 3-day weekend. Hey Andy, are you goofin' on Elvis, are you having fun? Man on the Moon.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/11/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12
2/6/26; 12:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +11; go long 6908 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at muchtime at SPX 6908 where it started from 3 days before. The choppy whipsaw garbage slop continues just like early last year. Banks and volatility control the show.

Banks rally this morning so stocks move higher and then the buy-the-dip crowd goes insane buying any stock with a heartbeat. XLF 53.97 is the line in the sand. Price is above creating bullishness. When XLF falls back below 53.97, stocks will turn sour again.

VIX 17.11 is a line in the sand. Price is above creating bearishness in the stock market. XLF and VIX are the yin and the yang of the market these days. Either VIX drops below 17.11 to signal the all-clear for a huge upside rally, or, XLF falls below 53.97 to signal blood and carnage ahead for stocks.

On the last trade that ran for 3 days, the quant program was flat but the actual trading gains a percent because the robot was in PSQ an inverse tech ETF and that is the sector that got crushed. Sometimes the robot benefits from the ETF in the hopper and sometimes it goes the other way. For the year thus far, now into February on the back side of winter in the northern hemisphere, the benchmark SPX is up a percent. The quant program is down about -4% in 2026 and the actual trading generated by the quant is down a couple percent. Keybot the Quant exited PSQ and entered DIA.

The banks and volatility will tell you the path forward. Do not be surprised if a whipsaw occurs back to the short side over the next day or three. 

2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/6/26; 12:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +11; go long 6908 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.5%)
2/6/26; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
2/6/26; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
2/5/26; 10:43 AM EST = +8; signal line is +11
2/5/26; 10:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is +11
2/4/26; 3:59 PM EST = +8; signal line is +12
2/4/26; 2:52 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
2/4/26; 1:29 PM EST = +8; signal line is +12
2/4/26; 12:43 PM EST = -8; signal line is +12
2/4/26; 12:38 PM EST = +8; signal line is +14
2/4/26; 12:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains short
2/4/26; 11:49 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14
2/4/26; 11:35 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains short
2/3/26; 12:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6904 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at munchtime today at SPX 6904. The chop suey continues and a whipsaw move occurs. This price action will keep the robot in the single ETF's for another month.

It is a broken record. Utes, banks, volatility and retail stocks are running the show especially banks and volatility today. The bears take the ball back due to weak banks and higher volatility. This game continues with utilities and retail stocks trying to take the field, the marching band refused to yield, do you recall what was revealed, the day the music died? American Pie. Super talent.

The bull/bear lines in the sand are VIX 17.10, XLF 53.97, XRT 87.12 and UTIL 1069. Volatility and banks are creating the stock market negativity. Retail stocks and utes create market lift preventing stocks from collapsing.

The whipsaw threat continues and the bulls may take the ball back tomorrow. It is choppy slop. Focus on VIX 17.10 and XLF 53.97. If volatility falls and banks rise, the bulls are back in business. If either parameter turns bullish, consider the whipsaw back to the long side in play, and if the SPX is above 6993, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long again. If both parameters turn bullish, the quant may flip long around 6973.

The table is set. Watch volatility and banks.

On the last trade that ran for one day, the quant program and the actual trading each lose a percent. For the year thus far, the algo program is down about -4%, the actual trading is down about -3% and the benchmark S&P 500 is up a percent. Keybot the Quant exits QQQ and enters PSQ. The beat goes on.

2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/3/26; 12:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6904 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.8%)
2/3/26; 11:00 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
2/3/26; 10:17 AM EST = +22; signal line is +15
2/3/26; 9:46 AM EST = +38; signal line is +16
2/3/26; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16
2/2/26; 2:43 PM EST = +38; signal line is +16
2/2/26; 10:19 AM EST = +22; signal line is +15; go long 6974 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long today at SPX 6974 after Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow forecasting six more weeks of bullishness, er snow. Retail stocks and volatility jump into the arms of the bulls this morning creating the upside joy. It looked like carnage time early this morning but the stick save was in place once again by the opening bell.

XLF 53.99 is the line in the sand and the bulls almost broke up through, but were spanked back down, so watch the banks closely for stock market direction. Also XRT 87.06 is key and price blew up through it like it was not even there. VIX 17.09 is a line in the sand and price is a 16-handle now so the bulls are happy. VIX is down to 16.19 so watch to see if it prints a 15-handle for more bull joy, or not.

Stay alert for a whipsaw since anything can happen in this choppy pig slop. The price action is a lot like last year. UTIL leaks lower that is ominous going forward but for now the party, and the band, plays on. Million Miles Away.

XLF 53.99, XRT 87.06, and VIX 17.09 tell you the stock market direction. The prescheduled number on Friday was cancelled.

On the last trade that ran for less than 2 weeks, the algo program loses a couple percent and ditto the actual trading. For the year, with one month in the bag already, the benchmark SPX is up a couple percent and the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant are each down a couple percent. Choppy slop to begin the year. Keybot the Quant exited SH and entered QQQ remaining in single ETF's for another week when the move to 2x leveraged ETF's may resume (a timer will expire). The choppy slop chews up bulls and bears alike especially those holding long or short 2x and 3x ETF's. 

2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/2/26; 10:19 AM EST = +22; signal line is +15; go long 6974 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.6%)
2/2/26; 10:14 AM EST = +6; signal line is +15
2/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -8; signal line is +15
1/30/26; 11:02 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16
1/30/26; 10:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is +17
1/30/26; 3:06 AM EST = -8; signal line is +17
1/29/26; 3:57 PM EST = +6; signal line is +19
1/29/26; 9:49 AM EST = -8; signal line is +20
1/29/26; 9:19 AM EST = +8; signal line is +22
1/28/26; 2:54 PM EST = +22; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 2:43 PM EST = +6; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 12:57 PM EST = +22; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 10:44 AM EST = +8; signal line is +23
1/27/26; 10:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +25
1/26/26; 6:58 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25
1/26/26; 4:40 AM EST = +10; signal line is +25
1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +26
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +27
1/21/26; 3:59 PM EST = +24; signal line is +27
1/21/26; 3:20 PM EST = +10; signal line is +28
1/21/26; 2:49 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28
1/20/26; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28
1/20/26; 9:30 AM EST = +26; signal line is +29; go short 6846 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -0.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama continues. The bears are in charge with the algo number 23 points below the signal line but equities remain buoyant. The buy the dip crowd is strong with traders and investors believing that stocks will never go down again.

Utilities, retail stocks, banks and volatility are the 4 key drivers of stock market direction currently. For the bears, the UTIL, or DJU, line in the sand is 1068 with price starting at 1091. Bears are having difficulty making downside progress but if 1068 fails, it is light's out. You will see stocks collapsing faster than a prom dress at midnight.

The bulls remain in the game benefiting from end of year joy, the ongoing AI and chip hype, and the relentless dip-buyers. Bulls need XRT above 87.15, XLF above 54.05 and VIX below 17.00. The retail sector needs to gain only about a percent; ditto the banksters. It would also be nothing for the VIX to drop through 17 so the bulls have it on a silver platter if they want it back.

If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bullish, you can check the VIX in overnight trading and the other two in the pre-market, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX moves above 6964, that would be about a +25 point gain, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

So the game is set. Bears need UTIL below 1068 and you will see blood and carnage on Wall Street like never before. The bulls simply need a percent gain in retail stocks and banks, and the VIX to drop below 17, and they will likely retake control of the stock market. 

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. For now, the bears continue to growl and the Clash howls. London Calling.

2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -8; signal line is +15
1/30/26; 11:02 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16
1/30/26; 10:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is +17
1/30/26; 3:06 AM EST = -8; signal line is +17
1/29/26; 3:57 PM EST = +6; signal line is +19
1/29/26; 9:49 AM EST = -8; signal line is +20
1/29/26; 9:19 AM EST = +8; signal line is +22
1/28/26; 2:54 PM EST = +22; signal line is +23

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Federal Reserve drama plays out today.  Retail stocks take the pipe but recover. Ditto volatility. The algo number is only one measly point below the signal line so the bears need more than that to prove they got game.

Retail stocks, banks and volatility are steering the stock market ship. Utilities remain important but the bull/bear line in the sand is at UTIL 1067 with price up at 1091. If the stock market begins falling apart, it will typically be a run of the mill pullback of a few percent, however, if UTIL, or DJU, fall below 1067, it means serious carnage for stocks is ahead.

But back to the three main players currently. The bull/bear lines in the sand are XRT 87.19, XLF 53.99 and VIX 16.99. Retail stocks and volatility are creating bullishness in stocks while the banksters are creating negativity. The big banks, insurers and financials are sh*tting the bed, but no one wants to talk about it. Probably because analysts have been saying buy, buy, buy, but if you did, did, did, at Thanksgiving or later, you lost, lost, lost, money.

If bears want to create downside drama, they need XRT below 87.19 and it is only pennies away. Then the bears need the VIX above 16.99 to create strong selling. The stock market will be soggy and falling apart if both of these turn negative. If UTIL then loses 1067, the stock market may go into a crash profile or at the least drop significantly (many percent).

All the bulls have to do is pump the banks, XLF, above 53.99 and they are back in biz. If XLF turns bullish, consider the turn to the long side imminent, and if the SPX moves above 7002 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Bulls are rooting for stronger banks. Bears are rooting for weaker retail stocks and higher volatility.

The all-time high for the SPX is today, 1/28/26, at 7002.28. The all-time closing high is yesterday, 1/27/26, at 6978.60. Happy Days.

2/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/28/26; 2:54 PM EST = +22; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 2:43 PM EST = +6; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 12:57 PM EST = +22; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 10:44 AM EST = +8; signal line is +23
1/27/26; 10:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +25
1/26/26; 6:58 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25
1/26/26; 4:40 AM EST = +10; signal line is +25
1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +26

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number only 2 measly points below the signal line. That is nothing to write home about so the bulls and bears continue battling.

All of you know what it is all about, right? Utes, and banks and volatility, oh my. Sounds like the Wizard of Oz and lions, and tigers and bears, oh my. Judy Garland was a sweetheart, with such a tragic ending to her life. What a voice.

Volatility is key with VIX 16.91 the bull/bear line in the sand and price at 16.09 creating stock market bullishness. Bears obviously need VIX above 16.91 if they want to do damage.

UTIL 1067 is a key bull/bear line in the sand and price is at 1074. Stocks will quickly fall apart and potentially crash if 1067 gives way. Watch it closely.

The banksters line in the sand is XLF 54.17 with price starting the week at 53.07 creating negativity in the stock market. The financials, insurers and large money-center banks are where they were at 6 weeks ago with television pundits telling folks to buy, buy, buy every step of the way. Regional banks have been winners. Banks are the key for the bulls. The bulls need XLF above 54.17 to signal the all-clear. Watch it in the pre-market tomorrow morning.

Bears need higher volatility, that will create another leg lower for stocks, and then if UTIL, or DJU, drops below 1067, it is lights out. Anyone long the stock market will regret it.

Bulls need to push XLF back above 54.17 and the happy upside will continue. If XLF moves above 54.17, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX moves above 6933, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Watch volatility, utilities and banks and you will know what direction the stock market is going.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Tuesday morning. The last day of trading for January is Friday. Time flies when you're having fun. The VIX will tell you a lot in overnight trading. Donna Summer was Hot Stuff in the disco era. How's 'bout some hot stuff baby, tonight?

2/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/27/26; 10:00 AM EST =
1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +26
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +27
1/21/26; 3:59 PM EST = +24; signal line is +27

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the King Donnie Magic Carpet Ride continues. Come with me little girl, on a magic carpet ride. Wheee!  Whoopie! Donnie retreated from the Greenland mess so stocks rally strongly after traveling up and down. Volatility remained elevated and banks remained weak today, so the stock market highs had no legs until the late session. VIX falls below the 16.93 bull/bear line in the sand, but struggles, and then the market makers made sure it ended below at 16.90 so bulls can keep their chests puffed out.

The bears are in charge but the algo number is only 3 measly points below the signal line. Bears need higher volatility to bring back carnage. If utilities fail, stocks will likely go off a cliff. Bulls need to keep volatility low and push banks higher that will paint the picture for stronger stocks ahead.

Bears need to push the VIX above 16.93 asap to keep the negativity going. Bears then need UTIL below 1067 and the wheels will fall off the stock market.

Bulls need to keep the VIX below 16.93 and push XLF above 54.28 and stocks will begin the steady drumbeat higher from here forward. If XLF moves above 54.28, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX moves above 6910, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

You do not have to watch the stock market. Instead, watch VIX 16.93, XLF 54.28 and UTIL 1067 and these three metrics will tell you what the stock market is doing. The VIX starts trading at 3 AM EST so it will provide an early tell on the direction for stocks ahead. You can check XLF in the pre-market. Which way will stocks go tomorrow? Go Your Own Way. Classic performance by Fleetwood Mac. This song cooks as it moves along; back then audiences were more reserved but everyone was busting out inside wanting to jump up and start groovin'. Lindsey's a killer guitarist; next level. Pretty Stevie is always the center of attention. Top of their game. They all had relationships with each other so the performance displays pure raw human emotion.

1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST =
1/21/26; 3:59 PM EST = +24; signal line is +27
1/21/26; 3:20 PM EST = +10; signal line is +28
1/21/26; 2:49 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28
1/20/26; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant turns to the bear side at SPX 6846. Does that ring a bell? Yes, that is the exact number the year started at so it has been a 20-day nothing-burger. Volatility and banks are controlling stock market direction currently. VIX 17.00 and XLF 54.28 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. VIX price is above and XLF price is below so both are negative and creating bearishness in the stock market.

The buy-the-dip crowd is active right now and XLF 54.28 will tell you the story. Traders can buy all they want but if the XLF remains below 54.28, and VIX above 17.00, stocks are going to remains soggy. Bears need weaker utes and retail stocks to create a flush lower. Bears need UTIL under 1067 to create market carnage. Bears need XRT below 87.20 that will create a strong leg lower in stocks.

Bulls simply need to get XLF back above 54.28 and all will be fine. The bulls will then work on pushing VIX below 17.00 and the upside party in stocks would continue. Thus, stay alert for a whipsaw but the quant likely needs both vol and banks in the bull camp before it would flip long.

On the last trade that ran for 8 trading days, the quant program loses -1.4% and the actual trading, generated by the quant, loses -1.3%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, that is the US stock market, is dead flat. The algo program is down about a percent and the actual trading is flat on the year. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters SH remaining in the 1x ETF's to reduce risk in these choppy whipsaw markets. Whip It good. 

1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST =
1/20/26; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28
1/20/26; 9:30 AM EST = +26; signal line is +29; go short 6846 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -0.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.1%)
1/19/26; 3:06 AM EST = +26; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/15/26; 9:39 AM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/14/26; 3:35 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 3:21 PM EST = +10; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 6:45 AM EST = +10; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 6:31 AM EST = +24; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 5:41 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/13/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +28
1/9/26; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +27
1/9/26; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +26; go long 6940 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = +1.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but champing at the bit to go short after King Donnie creates more turmoil around the world. This time it is Greenland drama that Donnie creates out of spite for not receiving his little peace medal from a committee in Norway. What color is the sky in his world?

S&P futures are tanking on the Donnie drama down -80 points. US markets are closed today for the Martin Luther/Don/Rodney/Billie Jean King Day. A lot can happen over the next day before US stocks come back on line. King Donnie waves his hand sending stocks in one direction or the other likely based on the positioning of his wealthy friends and family. Such is crony capitalism.

Utilities, volatility and banks will dictate the outcome over the next couple days. If Trumpski backtracks on his Greenland temper tantrum, you will see the VIX fall below 16.87 signaling the all-clear for stocks to rally. If the VIX remains above 16.87, US stocks are headed lower.

The banks can be used as a gauge, along with vol, of stock market pain. XLF 54.30 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price begins at 54.44. As the Donnie drama plays out, if XLF does not drop below 54.30, the bears are no real threat. Stocks would be expected to muddle sideways with a slight upward bias.

If XLF fails at 54.30, that is serious business, and indicates that US stocks are sliding down the rabbit hole of doom. If stocks are shedding points as futures indicate, watch the UTIL 1065 bull/bear line in the sand. Price begins at 1099 so the bulls are content sitting 34 points above, however, if the utilities fail, a stock market crash is on the table.

Thus, bulls need VIX below 16.87 to breathe a sigh of relief. Bears need to keep the VIX above 16.87, now at 18.70, to maintain negativity. Next, bears need XLF below 54.30 that will kick in more pain and misery for stocks. Next, the bears need UTIL below 1065 to open up a trap-door for the stock market where stocks will be tumbling bigtime lower in earnest.

If the SPX drops below 6925, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, and that appears to be on the table. You have to wait and see what the 1's and 0's say, however, because internal parameters will have to fully latch to permit the move.

Today and tomorrow will be interesting as all the corrupt people on Earth meet in Davos to keep their lies straight and plan future nefarious activities. Davos is where the billionaires tell the millionaires how to live. Let the festivities begin. Will the Shiny Happy People remain shiny and happy? 

1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST =
1/19/26; 3:06 AM EST = +26; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/15/26; 9:39 AM EST = +40; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the carnival drama this week with the algo number 11 points above the signal line. The choppy slop continues. The bulls recover today pulling the banksters and volatility back into their camp.

The gap down move Wednesday morning was not in the bears favor. It would have been better to slowly drift lower and then fail. Most of the time, when a gap-up, or gap-down, move occurs at the opening bell, price will typically retrace back to where the gap started and this time was no different. The quant triggers a gap-down timer and when this expired, the robot was in no mood to flip short. It is far better for the gap moves to occur during the session (rather than exactly at the opening bell) when they will carry more clout. Wednesday was a bear trap.

Bulls push utilities higher a positive indication for stocks with UTIL at 1103. Bulls must push UTIL above 1124 tomorrow and then above 1140 for all of next week a tall order but they are doing a good job of driving utes higher. The bigtime Wal Street SPX targets way above 7K will not occur unless UTIL takes out the utility numbers above.

The bears have to pull the banks and vol back into their camp or they got nothing. Bears need XLF below 54.30 and/or VIX above 16.88. Either one will do to create negativity. If 1 of the 2 turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play and if the SPX falls below 6938 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

XLF begins at 54.37 on 7 pennies in the bull camp so watch it like a hawk. Check it in the pre-market since it tells you which way stocks are headed. Bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. Bears need to create soggy banksters and a drop of only about 7 points in the SPX and that would be enough to flip short. Friday will be an interesting day to end the week.

Watch XLF 54.30, VIX 16.88 and SPX 6938. JJ Cale croaked about a year or more ago, here he is playing with Clapton at the Crossroads, Clapton's party each year. Some called JJ's unique playing style chicken scratching. Clapton is considered one of the best guitarists in history and he was asked who was his mentor. Eric said there is only one man that was my mentor and confidant in music and guitar; JJ Cale. You can tell those guys enjoy playing together. JJ's wife is playing rhythm guitar off to the side; she's a sweetheart. JJ's legs were not as strong since he was getting old, so he used the stool to lean on, but then he was having fun and standing, but he had to stoop over to sing into the mic that was not set up for that, he is laughing his *ss off about it, these guys are the best in the world, they are just jammin' and havin' fun all day long. Call Me the Breeze.

1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/15/26; 9:39 AM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/14/26; 3:35 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 3:21 PM EST = +10; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 6:45 AM EST = +10; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 6:31 AM EST = +24; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 5:41 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/13/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. Utilities and volatility remain in the bull camp creating buoyancy in the stock market. However, banks are beaten down after King Donnie proclaims a ceiling on credit card interest. The banksters create today's negativity.

Tomorrow is easy. As banks go, so goes the stock market. XLF 54.29 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price ruptures this level this afternoon creating bearishness in the stock market. Price is at 54.23 so you will know right away which way the stock market will go. XLF will trade in the pre-market.

The bears need the SPX to drop below 6939 trending lower and the quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn is in the title line.

Hump day is a cage match. Two enter but only one will exit and stocks will go in that direction. Bulls need to push XLF back above 54.29 and higher and they have nothing to worry about; equities will continue rallying. Bears need SPX below 6939 to flip the model short so watch the S&P futures to see if -25 points are on tap, or not.

The stage is set. The bears already have one paw in the door prying it open. The bears need SPX 6939. If VIX moves above 16.88, that will create more stock market carnage. If UTIL loses 1064, stocks will collapse down the rabbit hole of pain and misery.

The bulls need stronger banks and financial stocks like insurers, and the XLF above 54.29, to throw confetti and celebrate another stick-save for the stock market.

As a side note, check the $GTX chart at stockcharts.com. Commodities, goods inflation, is breaking out higher as everyone is relaxed about inflation after this morning's data. Inflation has been difficult to forecast because in recent months it jukes when you think it will jive, and visa versa, like trying to trade choppy markets. In about a month, there will likely be a noticeable pop in inflation. Granted, the bulk of the breakout is due to the outrageous rise in base and precious metals, but buying a silver bracelet for your honey just got more expensive so did a lot of gadgets and electronics. Was she worth it? Sometimes, You Never Can Tell.

1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/13/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +28