STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 7653 at the end of the Wednesday session. The algo number is 23 points below the signal line. Copper and volatility failed into the bear camp creating the negativity. Stocks should have sold off but did not so traders must be waiting for the US Monthly Jobs Report tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST. Despite the recovery move intraday in the S&P 500, Doctor Copper and Uncle Vix remain sick.

The CPER line in the sand for copper is 39.66 and price is only 15 cents away at 39.51 creating bearishness. Obviously, this can change with a blink of an eye.

The VIX line in the sand for volatility is 16.26 and price is only 13 cents away at 16.39 creating bearishness. Obviously, this can change on a dime.

There is a third metric at play the NYA index. It has been sneaking around in the bushes but decided to show its ugly face today. NYA 23341 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price is at 23527 on the bull side helping to maintain stock market buoyancy today. The NYA 23341 is a critical level for the US stock market since it represents a transition from a long-term cyclical bull market to a long-term cyclical bear market.

NYA collapsed today down to 23333 piercing the critical 23341 support. The bears tried to stab down through at 10 AM EST, then 11 AM then 11:30 AM, and then stocks recovered with the bears folding like a cheap suit. This action is why bears could not achieve more downside today.

There will probably be more chop suey ahead. Friday is the jobs report and a battle between the bearish copper and volatility against the bullish NYA two against one. Bears need NYA below 23431 and it is over for the stock market that will begin falling in earnest.

Bulls need both CPER above 39.66 and VIX below 16.26 to place the quant in position to go long. If these two metrics turn bullish, and the SPX pops above 7685, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Markets are erratic and unstable so anything can happen.

On the last trade that ran for 9 days, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent. The choppy slop price action is brutal. For the year, the benchmark SPX is cruising along up +12% while the quant program is down -5% and the actual trading down -14% on the year underperforming the benchmark by 26 percentage-points not a shining year for Keybot. Can it redeem itself in 3 months? The robot exited SSO and entered SDS.

Watch copper, volatility and the NYA index. Who will be the Better Man? Eddie Vedder brings the house down with one of the best performances ever. He has trouble with a guitar string and keeps on going. Spectacular talent. Bigtime. It's fun that he is playing with the house band. The drama tomorrow begins at 8:30 AM EST.

10/4/26; 7:00 PM EST =
10/2/26; 9:00 AM EST =
10/1/26; 9:36 AM EST = -29; signal line is -6
10/1/26; 7:28 AM EST = -15; signal line is -5
10/1/26; 6:53 AM EST = +1; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
9/30/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -13; signal line is -4
9/30/26; 3:59 PM EST = -13; signal line is -4; go short 7653 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +11.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -5.4%)(Actual results this trade = -1.8%; Actual results for 2026 = -14.4%)
9/29/26; 1:30 PM EST = +1; signal line is -5
9/29/26; 1:19 PM EST = -15; signal line is -6 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 1:02 PM EST = -29; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 12:57 PM EST = -13; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 12:41 PM EST = +1; signal line is -8
9/29/26; 12:01 PM EST = -13; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 10:39 AM EST = +1; signal line is -9
9/29/26; 10:29 AM EST = -13; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is -9
9/28/26; 12:02 PM EST = +4; signal line is -10
9/28/26; 10:51 AM EST = -10; signal line is -12
9/28/26; 7:29 AM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/28/26; 5:10 AM EST = -10; signal line is -13
9/27/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/25/26; 10:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/24/26; 12:21 PM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/24/26; 12:12 PM EST = -10; signal line is -11
9/24/26; 10:58 AM EST = +4; signal line is -11
9/24/26; 10:35 AM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
9/24/26; 8:13 AM EST = +4; signal line is -10
9/24/26; 7:44 AM EST = -10; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains long
9/24/26; 7:28 AM EST = +4; signal line is -8
9/24/26; 4:17 AM EST = -10; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains long
9/21/26; 11:15 AM EST = +4; signal line is -7; go long 7728 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +12.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -4.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.4%)(Actual results this trade = -8.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -12.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after the quant spits out 13 numbers over the last 2 days including the prescheduled number this morning. The bears kept taking bites at the apple today but came up short folding like a cheap suit in the afternoon. The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 6 points above the signal line that is nothing to write home about.

This week's market antics are provided by two metrics; copper and volatility. Doctor Copper and Uncle Vix are staggering around the campfire trying to figure out which camp to join. For now, they are testing the accommodations at the bull camp and maintaining buoyancy in the stock market.

The bulls are in charge because CPER is above 39.65 and VIX is below 16.29. The bears need 1 of the 2 to turn bearish and that would put into play the imminent turn to the short side. If the SPX then drops below 7654 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The bears have it there for the taking, if they want it.

If both metrics turn bearish, it may signal the start of dramatic negativity. Both failed today but they were stick-saved. Check the futures overnight. Bears need a -0.7% drop in copper to begin growling. Bears need the VIX above 16.29 and that may happen in the overnight session.

If copper is rallying and the VIX has a 15 handle, the bulls will be rallying stocks and the bears got buptkis. If copper is down -0.7% and more and the VIX above 16.29 as US stocks trade in the premarket tomorrow morning, the bears are going to smack stocks lower.

Watch copper and volatility. Tomorrow is the last day of September and Q3 (EOM and EOQ3). Get up, Billie Joe! Wake up! You said to Wake Me Up When September Ends. 

10/4/26; 7:00 PM EST =
10/2/26; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/26; 1:30 PM EST = +1; signal line is -5
9/29/26; 1:19 PM EST = -15; signal line is -6 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 1:02 PM EST = -29; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 12:57 PM EST = -13; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 12:41 PM EST = +1; signal line is -8
9/29/26; 12:01 PM EST = -13; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 10:39 AM EST = +1; signal line is -9
9/29/26; 10:29 AM EST = -13; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is -9
9/28/26; 12:02 PM EST = +4; signal line is -10
9/28/26; 10:51 AM EST = -10; signal line is -12
9/28/26; 7:29 AM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/28/26; 5:10 AM EST = -10; signal line is -13
9/27/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is -12

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 16 points above the signal line. It was an uneventful week until the robot when crazy on Thursday spitting out eight numbers. The whipsaw choppiness continues with big stock market moves occurring intraday depending on how the oil winds blow (stocks are moving inversely to oil and oil moves depending on Middle East news).

Bulls need banks to prove that up is the direction forward for the stock market but they did a pitiful job at that last week. Bulls need XLF above 56.30 to start bragging about new record highs for stocks. Bulls also need stronger retail stocks and utilities.

Remember, the collapse in utes, now down -15% in only 9 weeks, is an ominous sign for the stock market going forward. Typically, the stock market follows utes lower into the abyss within zero to 8 weeks and the drama is at 9 weeks now. Something has got to give.

The bears need to regroup and send chips lower, copper lower, the NYA index lower and volatility higher. The SOX will need to drop about -5% to help the bears so watch the AI news for any negativity. Bears need CPER below 39.55 and NYA below 23280 and this is about a -2.5% drop in each for the bears to growl again.

Bears need VIX above 16.41 or they got buptkis. Even if the metrics above turn bearish, and even if the quant flips short, the bears got nothing until volatility rises. The downside damage to stocks begins when VIX pops above 16.41 moving higher.

Keybot the Quant prints three prescheduled numbers this week; one on Tuesday morning shortly after the cash open, another on Wednesday evening to close out the month and Q3, and the third on Friday morning before the opening bell. Watch banks, copper and volatility. Don't You Worry 'Bout a Thing by Stevie. Real musical talent.

10/4/26; 7:00 PM EST =
10/2/26; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/27/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/25/26; 10:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/24/26; 12:21 PM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/24/26; 12:12 PM EST = -10; signal line is -11
9/24/26; 10:58 AM EST = +4; signal line is -11
9/24/26; 10:35 AM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
9/24/26; 8:13 AM EST = +4; signal line is -10
9/24/26; 7:44 AM EST = -10; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains long
9/24/26; 7:28 AM EST = +4; signal line is -8
9/24/26; 4:17 AM EST = -10; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains long
9/21/26; 11:15 AM EST = +4; signal line is -7; go long 7728 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +12.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -4.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.4%)(Actual results this trade = -8.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -12.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side this morning at SPX 7728; finally. This nearly 2-month period was bazaar with choppy sideways slop, AI hype, Iran War hype, inflation, bond yields and other drama. Even with the big up day today, it appears that nothing is resolved.

After the drawn-out battle where the quant was a whisker from flipping long several times, it finally makes the move in a nonchalant quiet move higher. Banks remain negative despite the joy. Utilities collapse further but no one notices since they are too busy buying stocks. Retail stocks remain in the crapper.

Oil falling in price and semiconductor joy sends the stock market higher today. The chips have an orgy party extending their weekend fun through Monday. Will the party fun continue or will the chips throw up in the back seat of the Uber?

The battle remains chips versus banks. Bulls need XLF above 56.60 to prove that the rally is the real deal. Check it in the premarket.

When the quant performs strange moves, and the last 2 months was the strangest behavior ever for the robot in nearly 20 years of operation, stay alert for a quick whipsaw back to the short side. Sometimes a jog move will follow with a whipsaw back to the short side, but then the bulls steal the ball back again, but the model then flips short again over a week or two period. The excitement is not finished. Perhaps it has only just begun.

Bears need SOX below 11930 to get the stock market ball back. Weaker copper and higher volatility will also help the bears.  Bulls need stronger banks.

On the last trade that ran for almost 8 weeks, the quant program loses -4% and the actual trading is thwacked -8%. Ouchie. Not good. It was a messy period that could have went either way. The quant has never printed a down year so it has Q4 to redeem itself. The benchmark SPX is up +13% this year. The Keybot the Quant program is down -4% and the actual trading is down -13% underperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by 26 percentage-points. The robot has its work cut out for it. Keybot exits PSQ and enters SSO a 2x leveraged ETF.

Watch banks, chips, copper and volatility. It was Closing Time for the bears today and tomorrow we see what the bulls got.

9/27/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/25/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/21/26; 11:15 AM EST = +4; signal line is -7; go long 7728 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +12.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -4.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.4%)(Actual results this trade = -8.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -12.6%)
9/20/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7
9/18/26; 3:59 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7
9/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = -12; signal line is -6
9/17/26; 9:00 AM EST = -28; signal line is -6
9/17/26; 3:06 AM EST = -28; signal line is -4
9/15/26; 10:07 AM EST = -42; signal line is -3
9/14/26; 2:48 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1
9/14/26; 1:54 PM EST = -42; signal line is +1
9/14/26; 3:06 AM EST = -26; signal line is +2
9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST = -12; signal line is +3
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST = -12; signal line is +3
9/11/26; 8:46 AM EST = -12; signal line is +4
9/10/26; 3:37 PM EST = -26; signal line is +4
9/10/26; 2:15 PM EST = -42; signal line is +5
9/10/26; 10:35 AM EST = -26; signal line is +7
9/10/26; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is +9
9/10/26; 7:24 AM EST = +6; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 3:35 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 3:21 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 2:56 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 1:50 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 1:42 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 12:40 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 12:14 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 11:53 AM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 11:15 AM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 9:58 AM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 2:54 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/8/26; 2:12 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 2:03 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/8/26; 1:07 PM EST = +20; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 12:36 PM EST = +4; signal line is +11
9/8/26; 10:58 AM EST = +20; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
9/6/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +12
9/4/26; 9:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +12
9/2/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +13
9/1/26; 2:41 PM EST = -12; signal line is +14
8/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +4; signal line is +15
8/30/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +16
8/28/26; 10:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +17
8/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +17
8/26/26; 9:39 AM EST = +36; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains short
8/26/26; 9:38 AM EST = +20; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains short
8/25/26; 3:56 PM EST = +4; signal line is +18
8/25/26; 2:42 PM EST = +20; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short
8/25/26; 2:26 PM EST = +4; signal line is +20
8/25/26; 2:14 PM EST = +20; signal line is +21
8/25/26; 10:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +21
8/25/26; 9:39 AM EST = +4; signal line is +22
8/24/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +23
8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +23
8/20/26; 12:07 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 11:05 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 10:30 AM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 9:51 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +26
8/19/26; 10:34 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/19/26; 10:16 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
8/19/26; 10:09 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/19/26; 9:40 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
8/19/26; 9:39 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/18/26; 2:24 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/18/26; 12:56 PM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/18/26; 10:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
8/18/26; 9:49 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/18/26; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
8/18/26; 9:00 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/17/26; 11:18 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/17/26; 10:10 AM EST = +36; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
8/17/26; 9:49 AM EST = +20; signal line is +29
8/16/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/14/26; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/11/26; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/11/26; 12:05 PM EST = +20; signal line is +30
8/11/26; 9:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
8/10/26; 3:57 PM EST = +20; signal line is +32
8/9/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
8/7/26; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
8/6/26; 10:06 AM EST = +36; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
8/6/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +33
8/5/26; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is +34
8/5/26; 12:52 PM EST = +22; signal line is +35
8/5/26; 11:55 AM EST = +36; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/4/26; 11:16 AM EST = +22; signal line is +35
8/4/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +35
8/3/26; 10:55 AM EST = +20; signal line is +36
8/3/26; 10:07 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +20; signal line is +36
7/31/26; 3:59 PM EST = +20; signal line is +36
7/31/26; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/30/26; 7:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/29/26; 3:39 PM EST = +22; signal line is +36
7/29/26; 2:06 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37
7/29/26; 10:05 AM EST = +22; signal line is +37; go short 7403 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +8.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the multi-month sideways slop continues. The bulls make substantive advances to keep stocks buoyant. Volatility dropped, copper rallied, and during the final minutes on Friday, the semiconductors were jammed higher. The banks are the skunk at the garden party. Utilities are lying in a grave.

The robot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 11 points above the signal line but the internal parameters do not fully latch to permit the move. Same-o story for the last few weeks. Maybe Monday will tell a different tale? If the SPX moves above 7657 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Watch the S&P futures overnight to see if the bulls can find +7 points of upside. The bears must drag chips lower out of the gate to stop the bulls.

Keeping it simple, stock market direction boils down to banks versus chips. The bears need to pull SOX below 11906 pronto to remain in control of the stock market.

The bulls need SPX above 7657 to likely flip the quant long and XLF above 56.79 will create positive market joy.

It is all about the chips first thing Monday morning. Ed Sheeran the ginger idiot got caught up in musician activism talking about global matters that he says he did not want to talk about. He should have just walked out on stage last evening and played his music. He did not owe anyone any explanation for the big mess with Macklemore that only had one hit. Thrift Shop was another popular song and video. 'What, what, what, what', what a bunch of idiots. Perfect was likely Ed Sheeran's peak years ago; at the time he said it was the best song that he ever wrote. He was likely right. The ladies love to be serenaded.

9/27/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/25/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/20/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7
9/18/26; 3:59 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7
9/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = -12; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Warsh and oil drama continue. Oil was down today so stocks were up. Two parameters, volatility and copper, jump back into the bull camp creating market joy. Banks and chips remain in the bear camp creating negativity.

The bears are in charge with the algo number 6 points below the signal line that is not much. The stock market game is vol and copper versus banks and chips.

The bears need to pull CPER back below 39.28 and/or push the VIX above 16.57.  Volatility is key because, going forward, bulls are at an advantage sub VIX 16.57 while bears are throwing confetti above VIX 16.57.

The bulls need to keep vol and copper bullish while also pushing XLF above 56.79 and/or SOX above 11890. Either one would be good enough to position the quant to go long, and if the SPX then ran above 7647 going higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Warsh hikes by a quarter point as expected. Oil continues to send stocks in the opposite direction. You can watch XLF and SMH in the pre-market to see how banks and chips are trading. Who will win the race? East Bound and Down a Jerry Reed song from Smokey and the Bandit. Everyone saw this highly popular movie in the late 1970's early 1980's. The "Bandit" (Burt) liked Sally's shaky puddin'.

9/20/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = -12; signal line is -6
9/17/26; 9:00 AM EST = -28; signal line is -6
9/17/26; 3:06 AM EST = -28; signal line is -4
9/15/26; 10:07 AM EST = -42; signal line is -3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as stocks stutter sideways waiting for Pope Warsh to bring the tablets down from On High tomorrow and tell international traders how to trade. A Fed rate hike is baked in so any deviation from this outcome would create drama. The hike may create drama depending on if it is considered to be one and done (stock market can probably live with this) or if it is the start of a rate hike cycle (multiple hikes in a row, at each meeting; bad for stocks).

Every hike over last few decades has started a rate hike cycle so the one hike and done is not as common an outcome. Warsh will likely hike because of all his bravado talk about tackling inflation. He is looking forward to the free buffet although he got a jelly stain on his necktie at the last meeting.

Banks, copper and volatility take the pipe and yet the stock market remains standing on its pale thin legs. Go figure. The stock market would have been expected to flush lower with these three parameters in the bear camp but the market oddities continue. Oil is moving markets. Oil up stocks down and oil down stocks up. The stock market may have not gone over the waterfall yet because Wizard Warsh is on tap. The chairman will appear tomorrow donning tap shoes, a top hat and cane, along with mirrors and a smoke machine.

The bears are in charge of the stock market with the algo number 39 points below the signal line but you would not know it with equities refusing to fall off their lofty perch. Bulls are going to need all three of the metrics to turn bullish to wrestle the ball back.

Bulls need XLF above 56.88, CPER above 39.21 and/or VIX below 16.59. All three are bearish opening the gates to Hell but the bulls are holding on by their fingernails trying not to fall into the abyss. Any 1 of the 3 turning bullish will immediately stop the stock market selloff. 2 of 3 turning bullish will create a substantive rally in equities and if all 3 turn bullish, the quant will be in position to go long again.

It sounds like a tall order for bulls but all the prices are within striking distance of crossing the lines in the sand. With the Fed on tap, anything may happen. Watch volatility and copper futures overnight to get a heads-up on where things are headed for hump day but of course, everyone will be waiting for Warsh and his rate hike. He better not show up empty-handed to a stock market expecting a hike With Arms Wide Open. 

9/20/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/17/26; 9:00 AM EST =
9/15/26; 10:07 AM EST = -42; signal line is -3
9/14/26; 2:48 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1
9/14/26; 1:54 PM EST = -42; signal line is +1
9/14/26; 3:06 AM EST = -26; signal line is +2
9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST = -12; signal line is +3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market drama continues. Oil is the king nowadays. As oil goes, stocks go the opposite. The Arab states are supposed to get together tomorrow to resolve the Strait of Hormuz problem. Sure they are. That news sent oil prices down so Friday stocks were up. Late day, the Saudi pipeline that was handling some of the millions of barrels of oil that could not transverse the strait was shut down. Oil prices went back up so stocks became soggy late day. Oil is the king.

Friday was a surprise since the metrics impacting stock market direction were on the cusp of turning bullish that would finally flip the model long. Nope. The Fed held its jackboot on the throat of volatility before the Friday open allowing stocks to elevate. That was the only parameter that flipped back into the bull camp and it was not enough to create a strong rally.

The bears remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 15 points below the signal line that is nothing to write home about. The bulls tried to fight back on Friday. For the week ahead, it is a game of chips and copper versus banks and volatility.

Banks and volatility are in the bull camp not allowing stocks to sell off to any great extent. Bears need XLF below 56.78 and/or VIX above 16.66. Either one turning bearish will lock-in negativity for stocks and both turning bearish will flush equities down the toilet.

Chips and copper are in the bear camp creating negativity in markets. All four parameters are dancing on the head of a pin so good luck for the path ahead. You have to wait and see what flinches first. Bulls need SOX above 11910 and/or CPER above 39.29. If one of the two flip bullish, and the SPX rallies above 7677, it is likely that Keybot the Quant will flip long.

That is the battle. Nothing else matters. Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Thursday morning. All You Ever Do Is Bring Me Down. Raul died at 60 years young. If this song does not get you moving, you have no life in you. The Mavericks always played it last to end the shows sending fans home in a great and happy mood. It is only a two-chord song E and A so easy to play and great for the solos to shine. Come on! 2, 3, 4, .......

9/20/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/17/26; 9:00 AM EST =
9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST = -12; signal line is +3
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST = -12; signal line is +3
9/11/26; 8:46 AM EST = -12; signal line is +4
9/10/26; 3:37 PM EST = -26; signal line is +4

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market antics continue. Today was a bigtime inflection point day. The indexes do not reflect the underlying damage. The SPX should have dumped a hundo points today at least, but only lost a piddly 45 points. The hyped up inflation data is on tap at 8:30 AM EST and everyone believes they can read these tea leaves and predict the Federal Reserve's rate decision on 9/16/26 only 4 trading days away. Thus, traders decided to hold their powder until tomorrow morning.

However, the bear slap was hard today. The bulls must of had a Communication Breakdown. Led Zeppelin came out on stage and blew those folks away as they wondered what is happening to music. They were so shocked they did not know how to react. Welcome to the 70's. John Bonham was finishing his beer before running out on stage. Everyone had long hair back then as the establishment lost control of this new wild rock and roll party generation. Hey girl, I have something you want to love. I'm having a nervous breakdown, I'm going insane.

The bears jammed volatility higher before the cash open so you knew they had the upper hand. At the open, the chips collapsed. Then copper, completely out of the blue, folds like your cheap suit. The cherry on top was the financials failing. Four major metrics taking the pipe should have pushed stocks off a cliff. It looks like it is all riding on the inflation numbers.

The banks recover late day. Thus, the XLF 56.78 line in the sand is very important. Price starts at 56.87 only pennies from failing again and causing stock market negativity. Check it in the pre-market to see what the story is for the day ahead.

Bulls need stronger banks, chips, copper and lower volatility to fight back. The bears are in control with the algo number 30 points below the signal line and it was a 47-point spread in the afternoon.

At 8:30 AM EST, Irina Inflation will shake her money maker and tell traders how to trade. Ramblin' Man. Dickey owns that song. Music has more joy, fun and participation without the garbage smartphones around. 

9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/10/26; 3:37 PM EST = -26; signal line is +4
9/10/26; 2:15 PM EST = -42; signal line is +5
9/10/26; 10:35 AM EST = -26; signal line is +7
9/10/26; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is +9
9/10/26; 7:24 AM EST = +6; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama continues. It is another day of semiconductors in the limelight.  Turn the Page. Out there in the spotlight, you're a million miles away. The swanky sax is a nice touch. Today's semiconductor battle made yesterday's action look like a piker. The quant spits out 11 numbers today and the bulls jam the chips higher in the last minute of trading to rig the win.

The robot wants to go long. What else is new? It is an odd stretch of time with stocks going up but the quant remains short. Something has to give perhaps tomorrow with the new moon. If the SPX moves above 7661 heading higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Stock market direction is controlled by chips, banks and volatility currently. All three are in the bull camp trying to take the ball away from the bears.

The bears immediately need SOX below 11922, XLF below 56.77 and/or VIX above 16.66. Trip six's. All three are in striking distance of falling apart. The bears need at least 1 of the 3 to turn bearish to provide breathing room again for negativity. 2 of the 3 turning negative will create noticeable downside in stocks. If all 3 turn bearish, the rout is on, and stocks will drop like rocks into the abyss of Hell.

Thus, bulls need SPX above 7661 and they will be in fantastic shape probably flipping the quant long. Bears need weaker chips and banks, and higher volatility, to create carnage. One of the 4 will flinch tomorrow and tell you path forward. It's a marvelous night for a Moondance with Van.

9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 3:35 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 3:21 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 2:56 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 1:50 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 1:42 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 12:40 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 12:14 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 11:53 AM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 11:15 AM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 9:58 AM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 2:54 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the oddball price action continues. Chips roar to life and dance around the trading floor like the flighty girl at a high school dance. Everybody wants to influence the chips, including the bull and bear camps, so the battle was on yesterday and may continue today. The algo spits out six numbers yesterday reflecting the semiconductor bull/bear battle.

Bulls need SOX above 11940 an easy lift if they ate their spinach and show up to play. If SOX rallies higher above 11940, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX ventures above 7718, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Bulls also need UTIL, or DJU, above 1110 with price at 1093. The failure in utes for a few weeks running is a bad omen for the stock market but who knows if the tried and true rules of the past still hold?

Bears are in control with the algo number 6 points below the signal line but that is nothing to write home about. Copper leaps higher yesterday the orgy in the red metal is unstoppable. Traders are buying this other yellow metal with both fists. Bears need weaker copper if they want to pull stocks lower.

Bears need weaker banks and for XLF to drop below 56.62. You will see the stock market notably weaken if this occurs. Bears need VIX above 16.64 to create carnage. A higher VIX will signal that pain and misery is the path ahead for stocks. Bears got nothing if the VIX remains sub 16.64.

Thus, stock market direction is a battle of bearish utes and chips versus bullish banks and volatility. One of the four will flinch and tell you the direction forward.

The cash open is 3-1/2 hours away for hump day, and the VIX is at 16-ish. SMH (chips) is trading lower in the pre-market. Utilities flat. XLF is a hair negative in early trading. It is Wednesday, so some Goo Goo Muck, the old Cramps tune, that is now new again, is in order. Gen Z'ers have a lot in common with the cool folks from the late 1960's, 70's, and early 80's; the two generations are in sync.

9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/8/26; 2:54 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/8/26; 2:12 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 2:03 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/8/26; 1:07 PM EST = +20; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 12:36 PM EST = +4; signal line is +11
9/8/26; 10:58 AM EST = +20; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
9/6/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +12

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the sideways party continues. Stocks will have to choose one way or the other at some point forward. US markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The Fed rate decision is 9/16/26 only 7 trading days away. Last Friday's US Monthly Jobs Report shows that the labor recovery is now 3 months along and counting. It raises the expectation for a rate hike so stocks were soggy to end the week.

The pieces on the battlefield remain about the same. Utes, chips and retail stocks are in the bear camp trying to create negativity. Copper, volatility and banks are in the bull camp trying to keep stocks elevated.

Bears are in control, although you would not know it because traders and investors are tripping over each other to buy stocks, with the algo number 8 points below the signal line. Things can change quickly.

Bears need CPER below 39.19, VIX above 16.82 and/or XLF below 56.60. Any 1 of the 3 turning bearish will prove that down is the path forward for the stock market. 2 of 3 is worse for the stock market and if all 3 turn bearish, carnage begins.

Bulls can steer the ship higher if they push UTIL above 1109.57, SOX above 11960 and/or XRT above 87.83. The Thursday orgy rally into the holiday weekend pushed the socks and retail stocks strongly higher so they are within striking distance to create a bull party.

Boiling it down, the bears need weaker copper to stick a dagger in stocks. Watch copper futures going into Tuesday morning when US stocks reopen for trading. Bears need a -1.9% drop, call it -2%, to create enough sogginess in the red metal where it will begin destroying stocks.

Bulls simply need higher chips and retail stocks and that may happen simply by Emperor Jensen proclaiming that the Rubin chip is the best thing since a Reuben sandwich. Or Walmart boasting about great Labor Day sales revenue and foot traffic. Thus, it is copper versus semiconductors and retail stocks. One of these three will flinch and that will tell you the path forward for the US stock market.

If SOX regains 11960 or XRT regains 87.83, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be on the table, and if the SPX runs higher above 7750, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

The bear's hopes are riding on weaker copper, and perhaps higher volatility since oil tankers are shot-up in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, while the bull's hopes are riding on stronger chips and retail stocks. Will the wealthy class keep on spending money to keep the party going? Money for Nothing. Mark Knopfler is one of the best guitarists ever but he never had real big acclaim in part due to using the f-word in this song. It alienated lots of folks in the music and entertainment industry so that hurts you if that is the business you are in.

9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/6/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +12
9/4/26; 9:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +12
9/2/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +13
9/1/26; 2:41 PM EST = -12; signal line is +14
8/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +4; signal line is +15
8/30/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama continues. Three key metrics, utes, chips and retail stocks, remain in the bear camp so you knew the big rally early Friday would fade, and it did. The bears remain in control of the stock market, although you would not know that by the price action, with the algo number 12 points below the signal line.

King Warsh put more meat on the bone providing a few parameters that folks can watch to read the Fed tea leaves. It was a nothing burger as far as price action goes with markets continuing to stumble along after the Warsh speech. The ceremonial walk to the fence occurs as usual. Warsh's two colleagues are BOE Governor Bailey and BOC Governor Macklem. All three idiots walk in the pouring down rain too stupid to use an umbrella; or too vain, and these folks are supposed to be smart running powerful central banks. Warsh and Bailey were the only two jackasses wearing a suit and tie in the wilds of Wyoming where boots, jeans, flannel shirts and cowboy hats are standard fare. Everything is for show nowadays. At the fence, Macklem pointed off in the distance as if to say, "Canada is beyond those mountains." The next Fed meeting is 9/15/26 and 9/16/26 with the rate decision and press conference on 9/16/26 only 13 trading days away.

UTIL drops to 1078 so the utilities are coughing up blood in the corner. No one notices since they are too busy buying stocks. Bulls need UTIL above 1125 and then above 1132 to continue a big rally for the stock market.

SOX 12050 and XRT 87.93 are the lines in the sand for chips and retail stocks, respectively. The chips are down, literally and figuratively.

Banks, copper and volatility remain in the bull camp. This is why bears cannot make any headway lower. Bears got nothing unless the VIX moves above 16.98 heading higher. XLF 56.35 and CPER 39.08 are lines in the sand and bears would need about a 2% or 3% drop in banks and copper to create negativity going forward.

Thus, to start the new week of trading, it is likely a game of retail stocks versus banks and copper. Bulls need XRT above 87.93 to place the model in position to go long and if the SPX runs above 7771, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. If you are bullish, you want to see retail stocks strong and catching a bid.

Bears need XLF below 56.35 and/or CPER below 39.08 to create selling pressure. Of course, if the VIX pops above 17, it is lights out for stocks. The whole mess is a coin-flip but retail stocks, banks and copper will likely tell you the story forward.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Monday evening for the EOM and the other on Friday morning before the cash open. Be very afraid about the failure in utilities because when utes lead the broad stock market lower, very bad things happen. The Happening with Diana and the girls.

9/6/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/4/26; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +16
8/28/26; 10:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +17
8/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +17

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short during this period of odd price action. The bears are in charge with the algo number 13 points below the signal line but the bulls do not notice because they are too busy buying stocks. The quant takes the pipe out of the gate this morning--and the SPX rallies 55 points. Huh? Weird stuff.

Wizard Warsh will bring the tablets down from On High tomorrow morning, after visiting the monks at the peaks of the Wyoming mountains, and tell traders and investors how to trade. The world's central bankers are in Jackson Hole discussing new ways to print money. It will be interesting if Warsh does the traditional slow walk for the cameras with two colleagues. The chairman typically walks out to the fence, and then points into the distance as if they are discussing something about nature, and then turn around and walk back. Warsh is on stage at 10 AM EST one-half hour after the cash open and that would be 8 AM first thing in the morning out at Jackson Hole with 2 hours time difference. Warsh will probably have a jelly stain on his necktie from the free buffet. The Warsh drama will be front and center but probably end up as a nothing burger.

The utilities failed over the last few days and you should be very afraid since that places a crash scenario for the stock market on the table in the days and weeks ahead. Utes leading the broad stock market lower is a very bad thing. It was a huge surprise today that UTIL, or DJU, collapsed to 1086 sinking further into the bear ooze. The UTIL 1093 line in the sand this week is worthless after tomorrow and replaced with 1132.36 a far harder, and higher, goal for the bulls to meet for all of next week. For tomorrow, the 1093 is still in play but watch to see where UTIL closes for the week. For next week, UTIL 1125 and 1132 will be the two lines in the sand. Bulls cannot make new highs in the stock market unless both of these ute parameters turn positive next week and price now sits at 1086.

Chips and retail stocks are weak with SOX below 12065 and XRT below 87.97 that should create stock market negativity. Watch these two metrics closely tomorrow. Bears need higher volatility, and VIX above 17 but it now has a 14 handle. Bears also need weaker copper, commodities and banks.

Simply watch UTIL 1093, SOX 12065 and XRT 87.97 tomorrow. All three are in the bear camp creating stock market negativity although it does not appear that way with everyone buying stocks. If any 1 of the 3 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play and if the SPX then bumps above 7741 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

If the bears can keep all 3 metrics bearish tomorrow, that would be a win for the negative side. Especially utilities. If UTIL continues lower, gird your loins, because that means a Bad Moon's Rising.

Keybot the Quant prints a prescheduled number tomorrow shortly after the opening bell. Utes, chips and retail stocks are all that matter.

8/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/28/26; 10:00 AM EST =
8/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +17
8/26/26; 9:39 AM EST = +36; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains short
8/26/26; 9:38 AM EST = +20; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains short
8/25/26; 3:56 PM EST = +4; signal line is +18
8/25/26; 2:42 PM EST = +20; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short
8/25/26; 2:26 PM EST = +4; signal line is +20
8/25/26; 2:14 PM EST = +20; signal line is +21
8/25/26; 10:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +21
8/25/26; 9:39 AM EST = +4; signal line is +22
8/24/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +23
8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +23

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market remains elevated. Go figure. Utilities, chips and retail stocks are in the bear camp creating market negativity while banks, copper and volatility are in the bull camp partying like its 1999 a la Prince. The stock market is erratic and unstable in this crazy chaos.

The bears are in charge with the algo number 19 points below the signal line but you would not know it with the bulls partying everyday buying stocks with both fists. Bears need XLF below 56.00, CPER below 38.90, and/or VIX above 17.18. Any 1 of the 3 turning negative may be enough to finally send stocks south. Carnage occurs in the stock market if all 3 turn bearish.

The bulls need UTIL above 1093, SOX above 12125, and/or XRT above 88.09 to guarantee a path higher for stocks. The bulls likely need 2 of the 3 to turn bullish to place the quant in position to go long. Write all 6 numbers on a post-it note and stick it on your forehead.

Utilities took the pipe on Friday but no one noticed since they were too busy buying stocks. UTIL, or DJU, collapses to 1075. That will get your attention. The bulls desperately need UTIL back above 1093 pronto or there will be Hell to pay going forward. When utilities lead the broad market lower, that spells major trouble and places a potential crash scenario on the table over the coming weeks. Watch utes closely this week.

Donnie Chump will likely comment on the Iran War and perhaps the failed Canada trade talks this afternoon to manipulate the futures market that opens at 6 PM EST. Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other Friday morning. The month of August ends (EOM) on the following Monday. There is likely more oddball price action ahead this week. It is Sunday morning and people are losing the faith. Losing My Religion. Great electric mandolin action by Peter Buck.

8/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/28/26; 10:00 AM EST =
8/25/26; 10:00 AM EST =
8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +23
8/20/26; 12:07 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama continues. It is odd times with odd price action. The bears are in control with the algo number 21 points below the signal line but no one told the bulls that keep rallying stocks.

Watch utes, chips and retail stocks, specifically, UTIL 1112.15, UTIL 1092.72, SOX 12130 and XRT 88.05, respectively. UTIL is at 1096 below 1112.15 creating negativity in the stock market. This number is meaningless at 4 PM EST today and replaced with 1092.72 for all of next week. If price finishes above 1093 today, that is a feather in the bulls cap come Monday. If, however, as price slips away today, UTIL closes below 1093, that sets up for bigtime negativity in the stock market next week. If you have a lot of longs, you should gird your loins and consider lightening up into the weekend if you see utes taking the pipe. One or the other outcomes will occur this afternoon.

Chips and retail stocks are creating negativity so bulls need prices above those lines in the sand. If so, the fix is in and the stock market is fine. If UTIL 1093 is lost today, that means big trouble, and if the VIX pops above 17.22, it is over for the stock market. For now, it is a coin-flip until one of the above metrics flinch. 

At about 10 AM EST, UTIL is 1099, SOX is 11794 and XRT is 87.38. The status is quo, so far. Jane Says she does not know what to do. Dig the steel drum sound.

8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/26; 12:07 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 11:05 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 10:30 AM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 9:51 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +26
8/19/26; 10:34 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/19/26; 10:16 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
8/19/26; 10:09 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/19/26; 9:40 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
8/19/26; 9:39 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/18/26; 2:24 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the circus atmosphere continues. Utilities, chips and retail stocks are running the show and all three are in the bear camp creating the negativity in today's tape.

Bears need weaker copper and higher volatility to confirm the path to carnage. Bulls need stronger utes, chips and retail stocks. More retail stock yearnings are on tap this week.

The bears are in charge, although you would not know it since the stock market has rallied higher, with the algo number 21 points below the signal line. Things can change quickly as evidenced by today's action with the quant spitting out six numbers.

UTIL 1112.15, SOX 12147, XRT 88.10, CPER 38.83 and VIX 17.22 are the bull/bear lines in the sand you can watch the rest of the week. Utes, semi's and  retail stocks are bearish creating negativity in the stock market while copper and volatility remain in the bull camp telling everyone the selling is no biggie.

Bears need CPER below 38.83 and/or VIX above 17.22 to start slashing deeply creating big wounds. If VIX pops above 17.22, it is over for the bulls. Stocks will fall apart.

Bulls need UTIL, or DJU, above 1112.15, and/or SOX above 12147 and/or XRT above 88.10. If retail earnings are beats, you will know the fix is in and bulls will stage a comeback starting with a rally in XRT. Overnight chip hype will send the semiconductors higher that will create higher stocks. 

The stage is set. Five parameters. Simply gauge stock market direction by the interplay of these five metrics. Pay attention to copper and volatility. If these are lost to the bear camp, the drop in stocks may be quite dramatic and the slashing will begin in earnest. The First Cut Is the Deepest. Sheryl is singing a Cat Stevens tune he wrote back in the 60's. He calls himself Yusuf nowadays. Sheryl Crow has been hanging out in Nashville the last couple decades. She has a scar on her head from early days playing in a routy biker bar when someone threw a beer bottle and it hit her in the face. That's a rough crowd. Sometimes you will see chicken wire fence covering the entire space in front of a stage to stop the projectiles. Her parents were musicians and music teachers; she plays a couple dozen instruments.

8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/26; 2:24 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/18/26; 12:56 PM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/18/26; 10:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
8/18/26; 9:49 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/18/26; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
8/18/26; 9:00 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/17/26; 11:18 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/17/26; 10:10 AM EST = +36; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
8/17/26; 9:49 AM EST = +20; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading is off and stumbling. UTIL fell below 1112 maintaining negativity for stocks. A few minutes ago, XRT fell below the 88.12 line in the sand ushering in negativity. Those control the stock market. Watch UTIL 1112 and XRT 88.12.

Bears need weaker chips and higher volatility if they want to create downside carnage. Bulls will squash the bears again and place the model in position to go long by bringing XRT back above 88.12. UTIL is at 1105 and XRT is at 88.04. It is a game of pennies and dollars. Life can be a day late and a dollar short. Story of My Life.

8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/26; 9:00 AM EST =
8/17/26; 9:49 AM EST = +20; signal line is +29
8/16/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. The SPX price, utilities, retail stocks and chips are all that matter.

If the SPX moves above 7810, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That represents a 24-point gain so watch this evening and overnight to see if the S&P futures are up +24 points. As usual, bulls do not want a big gap-up opening for the SPX since that may delay the flip long.

The UTIL 1112.15 line in the sand for all of this week has been previously mentioned. The market makers parked UTIL at 1112.39 to end last week trying to set up a bullish week ahead. The bulls have it by 24 pennies and utilities will create more lift in the stock market if the numbers hold. If UTIL remains above 1112.15 and moving higher towards 1124, the bulls will be celebrating more new highs for stocks. Bears need UTIL back below 1112.15 pronto, preferable out of the gate, to stay in the game.

Bears need XRT below 88.01 and the retail yearnings on tap this week will be sending XRT to and fro. Bears need SOX below 12130 to create downside in stocks. Bears ultimately got nothing unless, or until, they push VIX above 17.63 and it currently has a 14-handle. Donnie Chump should provide some type of commentary or happy talk this afternoon to influence the futures that begin trading at 6 PM EST.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Tuesday morning. Bulls will likely flip the model long above SPX 7810 and receive more juice with UTIL above 1112. Bears will stop the bull orgy if they pull UTIL below 1112, XRT below 88.01 and/or SOX below 12130. Yesterday was party day so folks are waking up with headaches. Sunday Morning Coming Down. Kris Kristofferson wrote the tune but it was immediately adopted by Johnny Cash, Kris was always pitching songs to Johnny, and everyone always associated the song with the Man in Black. On a Sunday morning sidewalk, I'm wishing Lord that I was stoned, 'cause there's something in a Sunday, that makes a body feel alone.

8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/26; 9:00 AM EST =
8/16/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/14/26; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/11/26; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/11/26; 12:05 PM EST = +20; signal line is +30
8/11/26; 9:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
8/10/26; 3:57 PM EST = +20; signal line is +32

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short so the stock market drama continues. Bulls had it on a silver platter but they could not convert. The SOX pukes into the closing bell falling below the 12080 line in the sand creating negativity to end the day.

As semiconductors go, so goes the market. SOX begins tomorrow at 11994 so bulls need 86 points to prove that they still got game and can place the algo in position to go long. Bulls, and the stock market, are in trouble if the SOX continues sinking lower.

Utilities remain bearish creating negativity with UTIL under 1124 at 1088.

Volatility remains tame with a 15 handle and the bears need VIX above 17.68, a couple sticks higher, to create negativity. Bears have buptkis unless they can push VIX above 17.68.

Bears need GTX below 5270 but Trumpflation sends price to 5514 creating bullishness.

Bulls need stronger utes and semiconductors. Bears need higher volatility and weaker commodities. Watch SOX because bulls and bears are battling while balancing on a tightrope; one will win and one will lose. Don't Stop Believin'. Some'll win, some will lose, some are born to sing the blues. Journey had quite a journey. Decades ago, Steve Perry the front man, did not want to sing anymore so the band was toast. What will they do? Then someone said you should check out this Filipino dude on YouTube he sings all the Journey songs. They thought it was a joke but the band was surprised at how good a singer Arnel Pineda was so they called him in for an audition. The rest is history. Arnel deserves to be on stage. He is a fantastic talent and adds a new energy to the band and Journey remains popular to this day. Neil Schon is a helluva guitarist. Watch the chips.

8/16/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/14/26; 10:00 AM EST =
8/10/26; 3:57 PM EST = +20; signal line is +32
8/9/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot is champing at the bit to go long, finally? It has been a strange week of trading with a big orgy rally in stocks brought about by King Donnie's proclamation last week that military action would not continue in Iran and a deal on the Strait of Hormuz was imminent. Trumpski kept hyping the Iran War talk on Monday saying the strait may open tomorrow. That did not happen and then Secretary Bessent proclaimed more happy talk so stocks hit the afterburners with a rocket launch rally, then sideways chop the last 3 days as traders await more happy talk. What next?

The Iran War, specifically the Strait of Hormuz, is driving oil prices that are driving stock prices so it is all a crap-shoot. It depends on what side of the bed King Donnie rises on today and tomorrow.

The turn to the long side may be imminent with the algo number 4 points above the signal line. If the SPX rallies 5 or 6 points, to push above 7763, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Thus, the bulls need is a rise of +6 in the futures that will begin trading at 6 PM EST. As usual, a gap-up big move will not be helpful for the bulls; it would be much better if price slowly progressed higher.

Bears must push back and prevent SPX 7763 with all their might, otherwise they will fold like your cheap Men's Warehouse suit. At the same time, bears need weaker chips and commodities, and a higher VIX.

Interestingly, even if the bulls gain control the only way another leg up occurs with stocks is if utilities rally. Watch utes very closely this week they will tell you a lot. UTIL begins the week at 1099 and bulls need price above 1124.50 to receive energy for another solid move higher in the stock market. Bulls will not make much headway higher, if any, if they cannot push utilities higher.

Bulls win with the SPX above 7763 and then drive stocks higher with stronger utes. Bears will continue to hold the bulls at bay if they prevent SPX 7763 and drive semiconductors and commodities lower and volatility higher. It should be another interesting week. We need Blues Traveler to join us as we travel these choppy waters. 

8/16/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/14/26; 10:00 AM EST =
8/9/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
8/7/26; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
8/6/26; 10:06 AM EST = +36; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
8/6/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +33
8/5/26; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is +34
8/5/26; 12:52 PM EST = +22; signal line is +35
8/5/26; 11:55 AM EST = +36; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/4/26; 11:16 AM EST = +22; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market rocket launches to the upside to all-time record highs. It is bazaar. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7758.21 and new all-time closing high at 7736.52 on 8/4/26 on Donnie hype.

In 18 years, the model has never displayed this type of behavior. The rally is purely news-driven with King Donnie Chump halting further military action in Iran on the weekend. Trumpski said the Strait of Hormuz may open yesterday. Then Bessent tag-teamed Trump promising an agreement by today. Oil plummets and stocks explode to the upside on the Iran War hype. Overnight, Trump says an agreement on the strait may occur today but Iran plays dumb and the Red Sea is now a problem. Iran is talking to Oman to make an agreement on the strait. What a mess. But the stock market is in party mode. If there was ever a time where everyone is partying with zero fear, it is now.

Utilities remain weak that is surprising since the rally would have been expected to lift all boats but it did not. Commodities weakened, mainly due to oil prices dropping, adding further bearishness to the stock market but the bulls managed to push chips high enough to help keep the bull rally going.

The coming days will tell if the model strayed off the reservation. Something has to give. The quant will have to capitulate and go long, or stocks will reverse to the downside. It likely completely depends on the so-called deal over the Strait of Hormuz that may be detailed today.  Welcome to the Twilight Zone.

The Iran War news is obviously the market driver along with utes, commodities and chips. The lines in the sand are UTIL 1124.50, GTX 5227 and SOX 12040. Utes and commodities create negativity while chips create positivity for stocks. The metrics do not matter when a big orange head is bloviating every 10 minutes to manipulate oil prices.

If UTIL or GTX turn bullish, either one will do, consider the imminent turn to the long side in play, and if the SPX moves above 7758, Keybot the Quant may flip long. The bears need to pull SOX below 12040 to maintain base negativity but, as highlighted above, the stock market is in Iran War hype mode and will live or die on the deal that King Donnie makes this week. It is weird stuff.

8/9/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/7/26; 9:00 AM EST =
8/4/26; 11:16 AM EST = +22; signal line is +35
8/4/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +35
8/3/26; 10:55 AM EST = +20; signal line is +36
8/3/26; 10:07 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +20; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market continues chopping along. Utilities gave up the ghost late Friday. King Donnie balked at continuing the strikes against Iran claiming that a new round of negotiations will begin today with the radical Islamist terrorists. Oil drops and futures rise. S&P futures are up +40 points.

Utes, vol and chips are impacting stock market direction. UTIL 1155, UTIL 1124, SOX 12.08K and VIX 19.17 are the lines in the sand. The VIX is at 15.98, a 15 handle, liking the bull camp. The chips are negative in the premarket so semi's like the bear camp.

UTIL begins the week at 1121 below both the 1124 and 1155 forecasting doom and gloom ahead. It sure does not look like that with futures happy, however, that occurs due to the King Donnie pump.

Bulls need UTIL above 1124 to place the quant in position to go long. Consider the imminent turn to the long side on tap if UTIL rises back above 1124. This is uber important to the stock market right now. Bad things will happen if utilities remain bearish.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning. Good morning Vietnam. Fortunate Son.

8/9/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/7/26; 9:00 AM EST =
8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +20; signal line is +36
7/31/26; 3:59 PM EST = +20; signal line is +36
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/30/26; 7:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls stage an orgy rally reversing the prior day's losses. The bull/bear battle continues as evidenced by the algo number and signal line both at +36. Keybot the Quant will likely flip long if the SPX can move above 7449 trending higher. As usual, a gap-up move would not be helpful for bulls and probably delay any potential move to the long side. This represents a +11 point move in the S&P futures overnight so that will give you a heads-up about tomorrow the last trading day of July.

The up and down circus is getting old but this is what erratic and unstable markets do. Utes and vol are running the show, and, as mentioned SPX 7449. UTIL 1158 and UTIL 1124 remain the two lines in the sand for tomorrow with price at 1133 causing both bullishness and bearishness in the stock market. One side or the other will likely win.

For all of next week, UTIL 1155.08 is the line in the sand replacing 1158.11 that will become meaningless, thus, watch 1155 tomorrow because that will provide insight into how stocks want to trade out of the gate on Monday.

VIX 19.17 is the line in the sand and price is at 17.09 getting jammed lower today so the bulls could win. Bears need 2 sticks higher to create selling pressure. Stocks may sell off but if the VIX remains below 19.17, the bears got buptkis and will fold like your cheap JC Penney suit. 

Let's assemble these hints that the quant provides. Bears are in control but need UTIL below 1124 and/or VIX above 19.17. The bears better eat their spinach, like Popeye, and show up with game tomorrow or they will fumble the ball back to the bulls.

The bulls need SPX above 7449 and the quant will likely flip long. If UTIL moves above 1158, this will likely be guaranteed. So bulls need the SPX to rally calmly higher gaining +11 points and more and also for utilities to rally.

Bears need to keep the SPX subdued and negative if possible while pulling utes lower and pushing volatility higher.

Keybot the Quant prints a prescheduled number tomorrow shortly after the cash open. Of course it does. May as well add drama on top of drama. S&P futures are up +12 this evening so the bulls have their chests puffed-out and know how to win the game tomorrow. Susan Tedeschi had to have her appendix yanked so a few gigs were cancelled. She does a great job with Little By Little. Eric Clapton is taking pictures in the background. Susan is married to Derek Trucks playing the slide next to her. His dad played the drums in the Allman Bros Band but unfortunately committed suicide. Get well soon Susan. 

8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/30/26; 7:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/29/26; 3:39 PM EST = +22; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 7403. The choppy whipsaw pig slop continues. The bears are in control of the stock market direction with the algo number 14 points below the signal line. Utilities and volatility are running the show. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

The negativity in utilities and spike higher in volatility usher-in yesterdays stock market weakness. UTIL 1158.11 and VIX 19.18 are the lines in the sand. VIX is at 19.40 in real-time starting to decorate its bear pad and create market weakness. UTIL 1124 is another line in the sand that may come into play if the price, now at 1141, continues lower.

Obviously, the bulls need UTIL above 1158 and/or VIX below 19.18. Either one would position the quant to flip long again in these chop suey markets. Bulls will be back in biz if both turn bullish.

Bears need UTIL below 1124 that will bring about a far lower stock market. Bears also need weaker copper but the red metal remains resilient and bullish propping up stocks. Copper futures are up over a couple percent this morning.

On the last trade that ran for a big two days, the quant program and the actual trading each lose a percent. Comically, it is death by a thousand cuts. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, that is the US stock market, is up +8%. The quant program is dead flat. Isn't that something. Seven months of drama and the computer program is exactly where it was at on January 1. Nowhere Man. The actual trading generated by the quant program is down -4% on the year thus far underperforming the benchmark by 12 percentage-points. The markets are trendless so the bulls and bears are chewed-up in the sideways meat grinder. Keybot the Quant exits DIA and enters PSQ.

Watch utilities and volatility for market direction. Also, keep a hairy eyeball on the banks and retail stocks. Copper appears to be in party mode again. 

8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/29/26; 3:39 PM EST = +22; signal line is +36
7/29/26; 2:06 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37
7/29/26; 10:05 AM EST = +22; signal line is +37; go short 7403 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +8.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.4%)
7/29/26; 10:01 AM EST = +38; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
7/29/26; 9:53 AM EST = +52; signal line is +37
7/28/26; 3:57 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
7/28/26; 10:06 AM EST = +52; signal line is +36
7/28/26; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +35
7/28/26; 9:48 AM EST = +38; signal line is +35
7/28/26; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35
7/27/26; 3:26 PM EST = +36; signal line is +35
7/27/26; 3:12 PM EST = +52; signal line is +36
7/27/26; 2:56 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
7/27/26; 2:25 PM EST = +52; signal line is +37
7/27/26; 12:58 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
7/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +37; go long 7479 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +9.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -3.6%)