STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the roller coaster ride of bank insolvencies. The bears remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 10 points below the signal line.

Comically, semiconductors are the only only major parameter holding up the US stock market. Anyone long the market better hope the chips do not crack or crumble but that is rarely the case for a bag of potato chips.

Bears need to pull SOX below 2930 (now at 3084). If they succeed, it is completely over for the stock market. Bloody carnage will be the fate each day forward.

Bulls need to desperately keep the chips elevated while pulling the SPX and copper higher. You saw on Friday how the SPX failed through 3955 so it was bye-bye stock market. Bulls need to reclaim 3955 as fast as possible starting the week at 3917.

Higher copper will also help the bulls but a +2.4% pop in copper futures is needed. Watch overnight Sunday to see if copper can catch a strong bid since it will tell you what is in store for Monday in the US.

If either SPX moves above 3955 or CPER above 24.33, it is likely that Keybot the Quant will flip long.

If the chips ae soggy and weak to begin the week, that spells trouble. If the semi's are trading positive in the pre-market early Monday morning, the bulls have a chance to stabilize the stock market.

3/26/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/19/23; 7:00 PM EST = 
3/17/23; 10:00 AM EST = -61; signal line is -49
3/17/23; 9:36 AM EST = -61; signal line is -47
3/16/23; 3:59 PM EST = -47; signal line is -46

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number only 1 point on the bear side. The big rally yesterday was not enough to flip the model long yet. Banks and copper remain weak.

The big drama occurring today is SPX 3960. This is where price is at and this is exactly the critical 12-month MA which is a key cyclical market signal. SPX 3960 is for all the marbles going forward. Bulls win big above. Bears win big below 3960 and bears will create carnage below 3925.

Bulls would be helped with VIX below 21.10 (now trading at 22.87 in real-time). Bulls also need NYA above 15050 to create huge upside in stocks.

If the SPX jogs above and below 3960 after the US opening bell, say 10 minutes above 3960, but then 10 minutes or a half-hour below 3960, then back above 3960, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Bears can maintain weakness in the US stock market by simply keeping SPX below 3960. The drama continues and Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell.

Happy St Patrick's Day; will the markets wear green today?

3/19/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/23; 10:00 AM EST =
3/16/23; 3:59 PM EST = -47; signal line is -46
3/16/23; 9:00 AM EST = -61; signal line is -44
3/15/23; 9:36 AM EST = -61; signal line is -41
3/14/23; 3:59 PM EST = -45; signal line is -39

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market turmoil continues after the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank insolvencies. The bears are in charge but the algo number is only 6 measly points below the signal line so the bearish conviction is questioned.

The battle for market control is chips and copper versus the SPX and NYA indexes.

Bears need SOX below 2920 and/or CPER below 24.42 to create new stock market weakness. Copper futures need to drop about -0.3% and are down -0.6% about 6 hours before the US opening bell so bears are smiling as they guzzle coffee.

Bulls need SPX above 3957 and/or NYA above 15055. Either one will signal an upside rally in place and both would signal an upside orgy underway. If either parameter turns bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play for the quant and it would likely flip long.

S&P futures are flat. The current weakness in copper hints that the set-up today is an advantage to the bears but the red metal is jumpy and was dead flat an hour ago.

3/19/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/23; 10:00 AM EST =
3/16/23; 9:00 AM EST =
3/14/23; 3:59 PM EST = -45; signal line is -39
3/14/23; 3:23 PM EST = -61; signal line is -37
3/14/23; 3:08 PM EST = -45; signal line is -35
3/14/23; 1:31 PM EST = -61; signal line is -34
3/13/23; 11:01 AM EST = -45; signal line is -32
3/13/23; 10:14 AM EST = -61; signal line is -31
3/13/23; 9:36 AM EST = -77; signal line is -29
3/12/23; 7:00 PM EST = -61; signal line is -27

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the turmoil from the Silicon Valley Bank failure continues. The bears are cruising with the algo number 34 points below the signal line. The crony capitalism officials are stepping-in to save the day, as usual, so S&P futures are up from +30 to +75 overnight.

The battle for market control is chips versus copper and the NYA Index. It appears a big rally may occur when the regular US trading session opens in about 4-1/2 hours. Copper is rallying and will be an immediate feather in the bulls cap if the futures remain positive.

Bears need weaker semiconductors to seal the deal for carnage ahead. Bears need SOX below 2903 which will create a big leg lower in the stock market. This morning appears rosy, however, so chips will probably rally stabilizing the stock market.

Bulls need stronger copper and NYA Index. Bulls need CPER above 24.42 and is only 2 pennies away. Considering the copper futures in rally mode right now up +0.5%, CPER will likely turn bullish. Bulls need NYA above 15060. This will be the big test today and a direct signal as to the strength of the relief rally.

If NYA overtakes 15060, the upside rally will gain momentum. This, however, is probably not enough to flip the model long. If this occurs, watch 15060 closely and if you see price move above for a while, then back below maybe for 10 minutes or a half-hour, then back above again, then below, then above. This jogging action likely tells you that the model is getting ready to flip long.

If CPER and NYA turn bullish, SPX 3955 can seal the deal for more rally time ahead. If SPX overtakes 3955, stocks are going to fly higher and the quant will likely flip long.

If NYA comes up to 15060 and hits its head on resistance and is spanked back down, and begins trending lower again, stocks will probably fall apart.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Thursday morning and the other on Friday morning. Watch NYA 15060 today. It will tell you what is going on.

3/19/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/23; 10:00 AM EST =
3/16/23; 9:00 AM EST =
3/12/23; 7:00 PM EST = -61; signal line is -27
3/10/23; 3:59 PM EST = -61; signal line is -25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the week finishes with mayhem on Wall Street. Once NYA 15060 failed, the blood was flowing, then copper failed, so it was carnage. Turn out the lights, the party's over.

The bears are in control of stock market direction currently with the algo number 36 points below the signal line. Semiconductors, copper and the NYA Index will dictate the battle for directional control as the new week begins.

The chips are the last major parameter holding up the stock market by the skin of their teeth. Pay attention to chips, copper and the NYA if you want to know where the market is going.

3/12/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/10/23; 3:59 PM EST = -61; signal line is -25
3/10/23; 3:58 PM EST = -45; signal line is -22
3/10/23; 3:47 PM EST = -61; signal line is -21
3/10/23; 2:11 PM EST = -45; signal line is -19
3/10/23; 1:37 PM EST = -61; signal line is -18
3/10/23; 12:01 PM EST = -45; signal line is -16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market circus plays on. The bears are comfortable with the algo number 29 points below the signal line. The key bull/bear battle is at NYA 15060. Remember all the talk about the negativity the utes would create? It's here.

Copper and the semiconductors are the only two major areas holding the stock market up so watch for weakness here. Stocks will recover and rally if NYA can move above 15060, stay above, and trend higher.

3/12/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/10/23; 12:01 PM EST = -45; signal line is -16
3/10/23; 10:59 AM EST = -31; signal line is -14
3/10/23; 10:21 AM EST = -45; signal line is -12
3/10/23; 10:07 AM EST = -31; signal line is -10
3/10/23; 9:45 AM EST = -45; signal line is -9
3/10/23; 9:00 AM EST = -31; signal line is -8
3/9/23; 3:59 PM EST = -31; signal line is -7
3/9/23; 3:15 PM EST = -47; signal line is -7
3/9/23; 2:55 PM EST = -31; signal line is -6
3/9/23; 1:52 PM EST = -17; signal line is -6
3/8/23; 9:38 AM EST = -3; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
3/7/23; 10:03 AM EST = -19; signal line is -6; go short 4024; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.7%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 4024. The banks and copper flip bearish so you knew what would happen. The algo number is only 13 points below the signal line so the choppy slop may continue. The year thus far is choppy slop chewing up bulls and bears alike.

Pope Powell laid an egg yesterday tanking equities causing copper and the banks to give up the ghost. The battle today is the SPX index versus copper. It is a cage match. Two will enter but only one will exit.

Bears need to pull SPX below 3962 to prove they got game. Stocks will tank. S&P futures are up +2, however, about one hour before the opening bell.

Bulls need CPER above 24.39 which represents a +0.7% gain in the copper futures. Let's see, copper futures are up +1.0%. Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner. The bulls want the stock market football back and they are trying to use copper to get it.

If CPER regains 24.39, which appears likely, the quant will be champing at the bit to go long again, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, but will probably want to see SPX 4050 to flip and commit a tall order for today. It will be important to see if CPER can maintain 24.39 today or if it fails. China is not going to spend the dough on its economy that was expected and Peru production is coming back on line after the riots so the red metal would be expected to become soggy going forward.

On the last trade, another choppy sloppy stutter-step, the gains are marginal and on the year the results remain flat. The benchmark SPX is up about +5% this year so the long stockholders are walking around with their chests puffed-out. Keybot the Quant exits QQQ and enters DOG remaining in the single ETF's for 2 more weeks when the whipsaw timer will expire. When will the chop suey end?

3/12/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/10/23; 9:00 AM EST =
3/7/23; 10:03 AM EST = -19; signal line is -6; go short 4024; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.7%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.1%)
3/7/23; 9:39 AM EST = -3; signal line is -6
3/5/23; 7:00 PM EST = +13; signal line is -8
3/3/23; 11:29 AM EST = +13; signal line is -10
3/2/23; 3:17 PM EST = -3; signal line is -12; go long 3978; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The markets idle to begin the week since Pope Powell speaks this morning. Keybot did not print any numbers yesterday.

The bulls are in charge of market direction with the algo number 21 points above the signal line.

The current game, aside from Powell's words this morning, is a battle between the banks and copper versus commodities. The banks were pumped on Friday creating the big rally in stocks.

Bears need XLF below 35.75 and/or CPER below 24.45 to create market negativity. This represents about a -0.8% drop in XLF and a -1.7% drop in copper futures. Let's take a look. Copper futures are down -1.4% so the bears are pushing but not there yet. XLF is unchanged in the pre-market sitting at 36.02. Bears likely need both the banks and copper to turn bearish to flip the model short.

Bulls need GTX above 3448 to prove they can take the stock market higher and it is knocking at the door at 3443. Commodities in general are flat to soggy to begin the day.

3/12/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/10/23; 9:00 AM EST =
3/5/23; 7:00 PM EST = +13; signal line is -8
3/3/23; 11:29 AM EST = +13; signal line is -10
3/2/23; 3:17 PM EST = -3; signal line is -12; go long 3978; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bull side late yesterday afternoon at SPX 3978. The whipsaws are dizzying. Stocks are flip-flopping more than John Kerry (a political hack that comically said 'I voted to raise taxes before I voted against it'; huh?). The bulls overtake SPX 3962 a critical line in the sand currently so they are running the show.

It is a battle between the banks and SPX 3962. Bulls need XLF above 35.69 to prove they got game. This morning, XLF leaps to 35.69, hits its head on the resistance, and stumbles lower. There will likely be another test.

Bulls need XLF above 35.69. Bears need SPX below 3962. One of them will give way proving the direction ahead. Keybot the Quant will likely flip short again if 3962 is lost.

On the last trade, the losses were marginal. Everything remains relatively flat this year after a couple months of trading. Keybot exits PSQ and enters QQQ. 

The whipsaws are unprecedented for the algorithm and reflect the choppy price action in 2023 thus far. The utilities failure remains extremely ominous but for now the bulls are stretching their legs.

SPX 3962 or XLF 35.69 will tell you the answer going forward. XLF is at 35.62 and SPX is at 4009 as the Friday trade proceeds. The rally is meaningless unless the banks turn bullish (XLF above 35.69).

3/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/2/23; 3:17 PM EST = -3; signal line is -12; go long 3978; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.6%)
3/2/23; 2:05 PM EST = -3; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
3/1/23; 1:29 PM EST = -17; signal line is -13
3/1/23; 12:45 PM EST = -1; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
3/1/23; 10:09 AM EST = -17; signal line is -12; go short 3955; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.6%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 3955.  The whipsaw markets continue. Whip it good. It is like riding a bucking bronco. The bulls pumped the banks to try and stabilize the stock market but the banks failed again yesterday creating overall stock market negativity.

Note that the last two flips both occurred at 10:09 AM EST. That is more wild rare stuff occurring with the algorithm. Obviously, you do not need hit over the head with a 2x4 (a piece of lumber) to know that you should watch 10:09 AM EST going forward.

UTIL GOES SUB 900 TO 891. IT'S OVER. TAKE THIS SIGNAL SERIOUSLY, FOLKS. GOING FORWARD, EXTREMELY BAD THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN TO THE US STOCK MARKET.

What now? More choppy slop? Watch banks and volatility. Bulls need XLF above 35.69 pronto starting the Thursday session at 35.60. XLF is trading down at 35.56 in the pre-market.

Bears need VIX above 21.63 to prove they got game. Higher volatility would play off the ominous utilities and likely send stocks to Hades. VIX is trading at 20.91 right now. VIX above 21.63 will tell you that the stock market ugliness has begun.

Bulls win big with XLF above 35.69 and bears win big with VIX above 21.63. One of them will flinch and tell you the answer ahead. 

On the last whipsaw trade that ran a couple days, the algo program and actual trading each lose about a percent and a half. Humorously, the quant is going in the wrong direction. On the year thus far with 2 months already in the bag, the benchmark SPX is up +3%, the quant program is flat and the actual trading generated by the quant is down a percent; call it all flat. Keybot exits DIA and enters PSQ remaining in the single ETF's because of the ongoing chop suey.

3/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
3/1/23; 1:29 PM EST = -17; signal line is -13
3/1/23; 12:45 PM EST = -1; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
3/1/23; 10:09 AM EST = -17; signal line is -12; go short 3955; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.6%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.1%)
3/1/23; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains long
2/28/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -1; signal line is -12
2/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = -1; signal line is -12
2/28/23; 9:42 AM EST = -1; signal line is -12
2/27/23; 3:08 PM EST = -17; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains long
2/27/23; 12:20 PM EST = -1; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:42 AM EST = -17; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
2/27/23; 10:41 AM EST = -3; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:39 AM EST = +13; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:18 AM EST = +29; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:10 AM EST = +13; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:09 AM EST = -3; signal line is -10; go long 4017; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 4017 yesterday but is already champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the short side this morning. The choppy slop continues. UTIL tries to regain 939 but fails which portends very bad things for the stock market going forward. Keep watching it.

The price action is a mess with different parameters flying-off in one direction only to reverse on a dime and run the other way. The quant prints 9 numbers to begin the week including the flip to the long side so the circus continues.

If the SPX simply trends lower and drops below 3974, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. This is a -8 point drop but S&P futures are up +3 about 3 hours before the opening bell.

Out of the gate yesterday, utes failed but the bulls pumped the banks higher to counteract the negativity. Banks failed going into the closing bell and will tell you a lot about stock market direction. Bulls need XLF above 35.69 (now at 35.65 only pennies away). This would take the potential flip to the short side off the table. The SPX moving above 4011 will also embolden the bulls. XLF is at 35.70 in the pre-market.

Bears simply need the SPX to drift lower and drop below 3974 to flip the model short. Weaker copper will help as well as higher volatility. Bears need CPER below 24.33 and VIX above 21.65. Bears need a -0.5% drop in copper futures that are currently up +0.7%. VIX is at 20.90 so the bulls are comfortable with the way Tuesday is beginning with copper, volatility and banks going their way.

On the last trade that only lasted a couple days, the quant program and actual trading each lose a percent round-tripping from the previous trade between SPX 3977 and 4017. For the year thus far, the SPX is up about +5%. The quant program is up a percent and the actual trading generated by the algo is flat on the year. Two months of trading is already in the bag. Keybot exits SH and enters DIA. 

3/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/28/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/28/23; 10:00 AM EST =
2/27/23; 3:08 PM EST = -17; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains long
2/27/23; 12:20 PM EST = -1; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:42 AM EST = -17; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
2/27/23; 10:41 AM EST = -3; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:39 AM EST = +13; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:18 AM EST = +29; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:10 AM EST = +13; signal line is -10
2/27/23; 10:09 AM EST = -3; signal line is -10; go long 4017; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.5%)
2/27/23; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -10
2/26/23; 7:00 PM EST = -17; signal line is -10
2/24/23; 3:59 PM EST = -17; signal line is -10
2/24/23; 3:45 PM EST = -33; signal line is -8
2/24/23; 3:38 PM EST = -17; signal line is -6
2/24/23; 3:11 PM EST = -1; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
2/24/23; 2:09 PM EST = -17; signal line is -3
2/24/23; 1:27 PM EST = -33; signal line is -1
2/24/23; 12:58 PM EST = -47; signal line is +2
2/24/23; 11:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is +5
2/24/23; 10:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is +7
2/24/23; 9:36 AM EST = -47; signal line is +11
2/24/23; 8:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +14
2/23/23; 3:07 PM EST = +13; signal line is +15
2/23/23; 2:26 PM EST = -1; signal line is +16
2/23/23; 2:05 PM EST = -17; signal line is +18
2/23/23; 12:29 PM EST = -1; signal line is +20
2/23/23; 11:53 AM EST = -15; signal line is +22
2/23/23; 11:43 AM EST = -1; signal line is +24; go short 3977; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side. Are you ready for drama and a crazy week or two ahead?

Utilities failed which opens a dark and ominous door to the future. Watch UTIL 939 like a hawk. UTIL begins at 928 and must overtake 939 as fast as possible to stop an Armageddon in the stock market. If utilities trail sideways or lower, that is like the stock market Titanic hitting the iceberg. So it will be of great interest to see what the utilities do after Monday's opening bell.

While the utes will tell you the fate forward for the stock market, there are other balls in the air. Bears need VIX above 22.20 (this trades overnight so you can get a feel on what will happen in the States) and SOX below 2871. Higher volatility and lower semiconductors, along with UTIL remaining below 939, will create stock market carnage and blood in the streets.

Bulls need to pump UTIL above 939, keep the VIX below 22.20, keep SOX above 2871, and at the same time pull XLF above 35.70. The bulls need the banks that gave up the stock market ship last week. Stronger copper will also help.

Bulls win big with UTIL above 939 and XLF above 35.70. Bears win big with VIX above 22.20 and/or SOX below 2871.

For the umpteenth time to emphasize the point, UTIL 939 is for all the marbles in the week ahead. Extremely bad things are going to happen to the US stock market if UTIL cannot regain 939.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week both on Tuesday. The month ends (EOM) on Tuesday.

3/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/28/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/28/23; 10:00 AM EST =
2/26/23; 7:00 PM EST = -17; signal line is -10
2/24/23; 3:59 PM EST = -17; signal line is -10

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short as the stock market circus continues. It is a crazy carnival ride. On Thursday, Keybot the Quant flipped long at the opening bell with the euphoric upside only to receive its head on a platter a couple hours later as the quant whipsawed short again. If you got up to go to the can, you would have missed the move by the time you got back.

There was no point in posting it since it flipped back so quickly. In the 15 years of the quant's operation, the intraday whipsaws are rare perhaps only about a half-dozen over all those years. A couple or so whipsaws tend to occur per year but they are always the following day not on the same day. The stock market is ripping itself apart jumping back and forth from bull to bear.

After the Thursday whipsaw flip back to the short side, the Crazy Train continues with more non-stop choppy slop. The algo prints another 16 numbers on Thursday afternoon and Friday including the pre-scheduled number. The banks gave up the ghost. Copper failed. Most importantly, the utes failed.

UTIL lost 927 ushering-in market mayhem. This is serious business. Not a joke. Stocks recovered late Friday, or at least tried to right the ship, when UTIL regained 927. Alas, the 927 is meaningless next week replaced with 939. That means out of the gate Monday morning, stocks will already be on the backfoot with utes immediately creating negative stock market pressure. Smell that? A slight whiff of a Black Monday in the air. Nah, that won't happen?

Utilities, banks and volatility are running the stock market show right now. If you are long the stock market, you need to get down on your knees, put your hands together, and pray all weekend that UTIL jumps above 939 after Monday's opening bell. Otherwise, you are toast.

Anything can happen in these markets. Bulls need higher utes, banks and copper and lower volatility. Bears need lower utes and chips and higher volatility.

On the whipsaw trades, it was marginal gains and losses. The robot will remain in single ETF's into the back-half of March due to the ongoing chop suey. On the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 index is up about +4% while the quant program is up a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +1% in 2023. On the flip long, Keybot exited SH and entered SPY and then on the whipsaw back to the short side SPY was exited and SH was reentered.

The utilities are a huge deal right now determining the fate of the US stock market going forward and comically, few understand it.

2/26/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/24/23; 3:59 PM EST = -17; signal line is -10
2/24/23; 3:45 PM EST = -33; signal line is -8
2/24/23; 3:38 PM EST = -17; signal line is -6
2/24/23; 3:11 PM EST = -1; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
2/24/23; 2:09 PM EST = -17; signal line is -3
2/24/23; 1:27 PM EST = -33; signal line is -1
2/24/23; 12:58 PM EST = -47; signal line is +2
2/24/23; 11:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is +5
2/24/23; 10:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is +7
2/24/23; 9:36 AM EST = -47; signal line is +11
2/24/23; 8:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +14
2/23/23; 3:07 PM EST = +13; signal line is +15
2/23/23; 2:26 PM EST = -1; signal line is +16
2/23/23; 2:05 PM EST = -17; signal line is +18
2/23/23; 12:29 PM EST = -1; signal line is +20
2/23/23; 11:53 AM EST = -15; signal line is +22
2/23/23; 11:43 AM EST = -1; signal line is +24; go short 3977; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.5%)
2/23/23; 10:50 AM EST = -1; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
2/23/23; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +28; go long 4018; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +3.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.5%)
2/23/23; 3:06 AM EST = -1; signal line is +28
2/22/23; 2:17 PM EST = -15; signal line is +29
2/22/23; 1:59 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31
2/22/23; 1:57 PM EST = +15; signal line is +32
2/22/23; 1:27 PM EST = +29; signal line is +33
2/22/23; 12:38 PM EST = +15; signal line is +34
2/22/23; 12:24 PM EST = +1; signal line is +35
2/21/23; 11:31 AM EST = -15; signal line is +37
2/21/23; 10:57 AM EST = -1; signal line is +39
2/21/23; 10:15 AM EST = +15; signal line is +42; go short 4024; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +3.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market circus continues. Bulls threaten a recovery rally but fold like a cheap suit after the Federal Reserve minutes yesterday afternoon. The bears remain in control of stock market direction with the algo number 29 points below the signal line.

The stock market remains a coin-flip with choppy slop each day. You saw the teasing around XLF 35.70, VIX 22.20 and SPX 4010-4013 yesterday creating the craziness.

Simplifying a complex game right now, the bulls desperately need XLF above 35.70 and SPX 4010-4013 that will put the markets back on track for higher prices. Bears need VIX above 22.20 and SOX below 2862. Bears will create carnage if UTIL loses 927.

NVDA posts strong earnings so the chips may rally today. VIX is trading at 21.99 in real-time so this is creating the buoyancy in the S&P futures up +19. This pop at the opening bell will once again place SPX at the critical 4010-4013 resistance level.

XLF is at ....... wait for it..... wait a bit longer for it...... 35.69 in the pre-market so the bulls know what they have to do to stop the selling; they are trying to push the banks higher.

UTIL is critically important today and tomorrow. If UTIL loses 927 this week, it is over for stocks, we will go down hard. Next week the magic number is 939 and price is now at 935. This is high drama. Very simply, if UTIL loses 427 this week, it is over for the US stock market. If UTIL ends the week below 939, it is over for stocks next week. If UTIL closes above 939 this week, the future does not look as bleak for next week.

That is a lot of mumbo jumbo. Who's listening to this guy? Further simplifying, bulls win big with VIX below 22.20, XLF above 35.70 and SPX above 4013. Bears win big with VIX above 22.20, XLF below 35.70, SPX below 4010, SOX below 2862 and UTIL below 927. Choose your poison.

There you go. XLF is sitting smack-dab on top of 35.70 in the pre-market ready for another day of drama.

2/26/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/24/23; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/23; 3:06 AM EST = -1; signal line is +28
2/22/23; 2:17 PM EST = -15; signal line is +29
2/22/23; 1:59 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31
2/22/23; 1:57 PM EST = +15; signal line is +32
2/22/23; 1:27 PM EST = +29; signal line is +33
2/22/23; 12:38 PM EST = +15; signal line is +34
2/22/23; 12:24 PM EST = +1; signal line is +35
2/21/23; 11:31 AM EST = -15; signal line is +37

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant finally flips short yesterday morning at SPX 4024 after teasing for the last week. Retail stocks and banks take the pipe. Volatility spikes. The SPX loses the critically-important 4010-4013 bull/bear line in the sand. The bears are cruising with the algo number 52 points below the signal line. It took a while for markets to decide and when they did it was a big move, however, stocks may remain choppy.

There are a lot of moving parts right now too difficult to explain quickly. Armageddon occurs if UTIL loses 927. It is now at 939. Interestingly, the 927 is meaningless next week replaced by...... wait for it..... wait a bit longer for it .... no, you really should wait a bit longer....... 939. This is big drama occurring in the background that few understand. If UTIL ends the week below 939, there will be carnage in stocks next week. A close for the week above 939 will create a more encouraging path for the bulls next week.

Here are 3 parameters you can watch that will tell you what is occurring. Bulls need XLF above 35.70 and/or SPX above 4010-4013 and/or VIX below 22.22. Choose your poison. If all three remain bearish, stocks will continue lower. XLF is up 2 pennies in the pre-market to 35.66 but the bulls need another nickel if they want to stop the selling. Banks are key today so watch them closely.

On the last trade, that ran for about 3 weeks, the quant program and the actual trading each lose about -1%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about +5%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +3% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +2% so far in 2023. The quant remains in the single ETF's due to the erratic choppiness exiting SPY and entering SH.

The bears did some damage yesterday. Watch banks, volatility and the critical SPX 4010-4013 line in the sand going forward. 

2/26/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/24/23; 10:00 AM EST =
2/21/23; 11:31 AM EST = -15; signal line is +37
2/21/23; 10:57 AM EST = -1; signal line is +39
2/21/23; 10:15 AM EST = +15; signal line is +42; go short 4024; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +3.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.2%)
2/21/23; 9:41 AM EST = +15; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
2/21/23; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains long
2/19/23; 7:00 PM EST = +45; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
2/16/23; 9:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
2/12/23; 7:00 PM EST = +45; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
2/10/23; 3:43 PM EST = +45; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
2/10/23; 3:16 PM EST = +29; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
2/10/23; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
2/10/23; 9:52 AM EST = +45; signal line is +44
2/10/23; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains long
2/5/23; 7:00 PM EST = +45; signal line is +42
2/3/23; 9:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +41
2/2/23; 1:27 PM EST = +45; signal line is +40
2/2/23; 10:27 AM EST = +61; signal line is +40
1/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +45; signal line is +38
1/31/23; 2:52 PM EST = +45; signal line is +37; go long 4059; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +5.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +3.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.9%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The sideways chop suey continues. The quant did not print any numbers last week except for the pre-scheduled number. The internal parameters will not yet fully latch so Keybot the Quant remains long. Something has to give in the days ahead.

Bulls need stronger utilities and commodities to push stocks higher. Bears need weaker utilities, retail stocks and copper, and higher volatility, to push stocks lower.

SPX 4016 is a bull/bear line in the sand that spells serious trouble ahead if it fails. The week begins on Tuesday at 4079.

Keybot the Quant is champing at the bit to go short and probably will if the SPX moves lower gradually and takes out 4048 on Tuesday.

US markets are closed Monday for Presidents Day. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning, Flag Day.

2/26/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/24/23; 10:00 AM EST =
2/19/23; 7:00 PM EST = +45; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
2/16/23; 9:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
2/12/23; 7:00 PM EST = +45; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls and bears continue battling on the tightrope. The status is quo with the algo number and signal line both at +45 neither one willing to budge. The quant idles along this week not printing any numbers so far. The  key parameters in play right now will not flinch so stocks are jumpy stumbling sideways.

Same dealio as the prior message. Bulls need stronger commodities to keep the upside party going but that appears weak overnight and in the pre-market. Bulls need GTX above 3474 (now at 3444) to signal the all-clear for more upside.

Bears need weaker retail stocks and copper but these two parameters remain bullish. Bears need RTH below 165.20 (now at 167.11) and/or CPER below 24.28 (now at 24.90). Retail stocks need to drop about -1.2% today to create stock market negativity. Scamazon (AMZN) is down -0.6% in the pre-market. AAPL -0.8%. Retail Sales data is on tap at 8:30 AM EST. Copper futures need to drop about -2.5% and are currently down -1.4% so the bears have more work to do.

If RTH or CPER turn bearish, either one will do, and the SPX drops below 4095 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If GTX pops above 3474, stocks will take another leg higher.

S&P futures are down 17 points, -0.4%. Watch GTX, RTH and CPER since one of them will flinch. It looks like the best chance is RTH especially with Amazon and Apple soggy in the pre-market and Retail Sales on tap. Time will tell.

2/19/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/16/23; 9:00 AM EST =
2/12/23; 7:00 PM EST = +45; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the choppy slop continues. The algo number and signal line are the same number so the direction of the US stock market is a coin-flip. The algo wants to flip short but the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move, so the quant remains long.

The battle will likely be decided by retail stocks, copper and commodities. If copper is higher, and the other commodities, oil, grains, etc..., are higher, and if stocks such as AMZN, HD, WMT and TGT are higher in the pre-market, the bulls will win the game.

Bears need RTH below 164.97 and CPER below 24.20 to create sustainable market negativity. Watch copper futures overnight because a -0.9% drop will spell serious trouble for stocks. Any less of a drop in copper futures or if they are positive will point to a happy day for bulls. The retail stocks in the pre-market will also provide hints on which direction RTH will go. You can also watch XRT.

If RTH or CPER turn bearish, either one will do, and if the SPX falls below 4061 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Bulls need to keep copper and retail stocks on the positive side on Monday while at the same time pulling GTX above 3478. Stocks will run strongly higher if GTX moves above 3478.

Commodities, copper and retail stocks are running the show to begin the new week of trading. If none of the three parameters flinch (GTX remains bearish and RTH and CPER remain bullish), the stock market chop suey will continue. One of them will flinch.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Thursday morning.

2/19/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/16/23; 9:00 AM EST =
2/12/23; 7:00 PM EST = +45; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
2/10/23; 3:43 PM EST = +45; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
2/10/23; 3:16 PM EST = +29; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
2/10/23; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
2/10/23; 9:52 AM EST = +45; signal line is +44
2/10/23; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains long
2/5/23; 7:00 PM EST = +45; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the chop suey continues. The quant did not print any numbers during the whole week yet. The pre-scheduled number prints shortly after the opening bell today.  The markets remain a toss-up with algo number only 3 points above the signal line. Bulls need stronger commodities and utilities to maintain the rally.

Bears need weaker retail stocks, copper and/or utilities to turn the tables on the bulls. Bears need RTH below 165.00, CPER below 24.25 and/or UTIL below 921.17, respectively, to create a strong leg lower in stocks. If any 1 of the 3 flip bearish, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and then if the SPX is below 4070 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

If stocks drop, and that may be on tap with the S&P futures down -27 about 2 hours before the opening bell, watch the 3 parameters. If stocks puke but none of the 3 turn bearish, that tells you that stocks will likely recover and begin a relief rally.

If stocks drop and 1 of the 3 fail, lookout since things can turn very negative. If UTIL 921 fails, there will likely be Hell to pay.

Today is a big day for the US stock market that will likely tip its hand on where it wants to go.

2/12/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/10/23; 10:00 AM EST =
2/5/23; 7:00 PM EST = +45; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo number is only 3 measly points above the signal line. Caution is warranted since the stock market remains a coin-flip.

Copper likely holds the key today. CPER 24.17 is a bull/bear line in the sand identified by the quant and price begins at 24.56. This represents a -1.6% loss to stop the rally and create sustainable weakness going forward. Copper futures are down -0.5% right now; they were positive about 2 hours ago. The bears may be puffing their chests out but they still need another percent of downside in the red metal to prove that they can take stocks lower.

Utilities remain key. UTIL begins the week at 953.58 call it 954. Bulls need 979 to create a huge upside rally in the US stock market. If UTIL instead stumbles lower, that forecasts bad things ahead for stocks as the weeks play out. A failure at UTIL 921.17 will cause doom and gloom for stocks. Any move lower towards the 913-927 range during the next 3 weeks should be viewed as extremely negative for the stock market going forward on a weekly basis.

If CPER loses 24.17 today, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play, and if the SPX loses 4123 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

2/12/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/10/23; 10:00 AM EST =
2/5/23; 7:00 PM EST = +45; signal line is +42
2/3/23; 9:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +41
2/2/23; 1:27 PM EST = +45; signal line is +40
2/2/23; 10:27 AM EST = +61; signal line is +40
1/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +45; signal line is +38

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side yesterday afternoon at SPX 4059. The stock market is choppy slop that will chew-up bulls and bears alike. Chop suey.

The SPX keeps playing above and below the critical 4038 bull/bear line in the sand that dictates the fate of the US stock market going forward.

There is likely more drama, even more whipsaws, ahead since Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High today and will impact markets as well as the Monthly Jobs Report Friday morning and other economic data in between.

Note that both of the flips over the last couple days occur at 2:52 PM EST. Isn't that interesting? It is not too surprising. The US trading session is split into 65-minute segments. The pivot points for stock prices typically occur around these changes from one segment to the next since the robots are executing their buy and sell programs.

The last 65-minute trading segment is 2:55 PM through 4:00 PM EST. The robots are adjusting positions at this interface. Thus, pay attention to the 20-minute period between 2:45 PM and 3:05 PM as the robots are trading positions. The flips at 2:52 PM also hint that the robot-driven trading is dominating. Typically, over 90% of the trades occurring daily are robots but now it is likely far higher.

Also, as fate would have it, the Federal Reserve rate decision is today with a 25 bip hike expected. The announcement should not be a surprise but King Powell's press conference between 2:30 PM EST and 3:30 PM EST may move markets and lo and behold this is in that robot switchover timeframe. Will Jerome flub a question at 2:55 PM EST today to create market angst?

On the last trade, that only lasted one day, if you got up to go to the can you missed it, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant loses a couple percent. On the year thus far, separation is starting to occur with the benchmark S&P 500 up nearly +6%. The Wall Street analyst bozo's said stocks would crater to begin the year.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +4% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +3%. Keybot exits SDS and enters SPY flipping from the leveraged 2x ETF's back to the single 1x ETF's due to the whipsaw. Keybot will remain in 1x ETF mode for 30 days. This reduces risk in a chop suey environment.

Markets are in Pope Powell's hands today. Watch SPX 4038 and also GTX 3502. The bears probably need about a 57-point drop in the SPX today to flip short so watch Powell to see if he stumbles.

2/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/3/23; 9:00 AM EST =
1/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +45; signal line is +38
1/31/23; 2:52 PM EST = +45; signal line is +37; go long 4059; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +5.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +3.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.9%)
1/31/23; 10:50 AM EST = +45; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
1/31/23; 10:00 AM EST = +31; signal line is +37
1/30/23; 2:52 PM EST = +32; signal line is +37; go short 4023; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +4.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +4.8%)(Actual results this trade = +4.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +4.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short yesterday afternoon during the market selloff at SPX 4023. Utes, commodities and the SPX index are in the bear camp creating stock market negativity.

Bulls need either SPX above 4038, GTX above 3500 and/or UTIL above 979.20. Any one of these turning bullish will stop the downward slide in stocks. The SPX begins at 4018 and is the most likely to turn bullish first but S&P futures are down -20 points about 3 hours before the opening bell.

On the last trade, that ran for the month of January, the benchmark SPX, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program, and the actual trading generated by the quant, are each up about +5% on the year thus far. Keybot exits SPY and enters SDS. The whipsaw timer expires so the quant is back into the leveraged 2x ETF's.

SPX 4037-4040 tells the market story this week as the Fed plays out tomorrow and the Monthly Jobs Report on Friday morning. There may be some whipsaw action ahead.

2/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/3/23; 9:00 AM EST =
1/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/31/23; 10:00 AM EST =
1/30/23; 2:52 PM EST = +32; signal line is +37; go short 4023; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +4.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +4.8%)(Actual results this trade = +4.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +4.7%)
1/30/23; 1:36 PM EST = +32; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
1/30/23; 1:21 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
1/30/23; 12:52 PM EST = +32; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
1/30/23; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40
1/29/23; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +40
1/27/23; 2:02 PM EST = +60; signal line is +39
1/27/23; 12:28 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
1/27/23; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +39
1/26/23; 1:43 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
1/26/23; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37
1/26/23; 9:38 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
1/25/23; 11:25 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36
1/25/23; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
1/22/23; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +34
1/20/23; 2:10 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32
1/19/23; 12:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:38 AM EST = +14; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:23 AM EST = +0; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:22 AM EST = +14; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:14 AM EST = +30; signal line is +29
1/19/23; 10:48 AM EST = +14; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 10:07 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25
1/19/23; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22
1/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +21
1/18/23; 2:16 PM EST = +32; signal line is +19
1/18/23; 11:13 AM EST = +46; signal line is +17
1/17/23; 2:20 PM EST = +62; signal line is +13
1/17/23; 12:30 PM EST = +48; signal line is +10
1/17/23; 9:36 AM EST = +62; signal line is +7
1/15/23; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +5
1/13/23; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +3
1/10/23; 10:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +0
1/9/23; 3:30 PM EST = +32; signal line is -3
1/9/23; 10:21 AM EST = +48; signal line is -5
1/9/23; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is -8
1/8/23; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is -10
1/6/23; 12:58 PM EST = +48; signal line is -12
1/6/23; 10:40 AM EST = +32; signal line is -15
1/6/23; 10:22 AM EST = +16; signal line is -17
1/6/23; 10:07 AM EST = +0; signal line is -18
1/6/23; 9:00 AM EST = -16; signal line is -19
1/5/23; 9:36 AM EST = -16; signal line is -19
1/4/23; 10:49 AM EST = +16; signal line is -19
1/4/23; 10:26 AM EST = +0; signal line is -21
1/4/23; 9:47 AM EST = +16; signal line is -22; go long 3841; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.1%; Actual results for 2023 = -0.1%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are slapping the bears silly. Bears capitulate covering their shorts sending stocks higher. The SPX blows up through the important 4037 line in the sand unleashing unlimited upside market joy. It is such an important number that there will be back tests from the top side for a few days, especially with the Fed on tap on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the bulls want to confirm a new cyclical bull market ahead and that occurs with the SPX closing above 4037 each day forward.

Commodities and utes are also in play. GTX is at 3507 and bears can stop the upside stock market rally if they push GTX below 3502 only 5 bucks away.

Utilities are creating negativity in the stock market and bulls must push UTIL above 978.256 to prove that the upside ahead for stocks will be euphoric. If UTIL fails to attain 978 in the week ahead, put your guard up. If UTIL drops in the days ahead and teases down towards 920, it tells you that the rally in stocks is getting old and will end anytime over the coming weeks and begin a long drop lower as well as opening the door to a potential crash scenario.

For now, as long as SPX is above 4037 and GTX above 3502, the bulls are grinning ear to ear.

Keybot prints 3 pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning, the second on Tuesday evening to mark the EOM and the third on Friday morning before the opening bell for the regular session.

If SPX and GTX both turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play and the quant will likely flip short.

2/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/3/23; 9:00 AM EST =
1/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/31/23; 10:00 AM EST =
1/29/23; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +40
1/27/23; 2:02 PM EST = +60; signal line is +39
1/27/23; 12:28 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
1/27/23; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +39
1/26/23; 1:43 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
1/26/23; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37
1/26/23; 9:38 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
1/25/23; 11:25 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the choppiness. Bulls need SPX above 4037 to confirm upside euphoria ahead.

Bears need to push GTX below 3504 and/or RTH below 163.15. If either one turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 3949, the quant will likely flip short. This does not appear on the docket, however, with S&P futures up +10 about 3 hours before the opening bell. 

If SPX cannot move above 4037 and if GTX and RTH remain bullish, the stock market will churn along with choppy slop and an upward bias. One of these will flinch perhaps before the week ends.

1/29/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/27/23; 10:00 AM EST =
1/25/23; 11:25 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36
1/25/23; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
1/22/23; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Hump day is a battle of commodities versus the SPX index.

Bulls need SPX above 4037 (now at 4017) to create strong bullishness for stocks going forward. It tested on Monday so there will probably be other tests in the days ahead.

Bears need GTX below 3504 (now at 3525) to stop the upside rally and introduce negativity into the stock market. If GTX fails at 3504, and the SPX is dropping below 3990, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Thus, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play if GTX fails.

S&P futures are down -31 points about 3 hours before the opening bell in the States for the regular trading session. Bears need a 27-point drop so they may growl strongly today. After a few minutes of trading after the opening bell, watch to see if the S&P 500 is down less than 27 points or more than 27 points.

1/29/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/27/23; 10:00 AM EST =
1/22/23; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The current battle is retail stocks and banks versus utes and the SPX.

Bulls need either UTIL above 977.80 and/or SPX above 4035 to keep the upside party going. If the SPX moves above 4030-4040, it is a game-changer since the stock market will be signaling a cyclical bull market ahead. It is logical that SPX price will probably migrate higher to test the critical 4030-4040 resistance where a bounce of die decision will be made and impact the stock market for the entire year forward.

Bears need RTH below 163.01 and/or XLF below 34.70 to create market weakness. The quant likely needs to see one of these two parameters turn bearish and the SPX to drop below 3898 to flip short today. If either parameter drops below the bull/bear line in the sand, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play for the quant.

1/29/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/27/23; 10:00 AM EST =
1/22/23; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +34
1/20/23; 2:10 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32
1/19/23; 12:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long with the stock market direction a coin flip. Bulls need UTIL above 977.30 and RTH above 163.01 so they have some work to do.

Bears need GTX below 3498 and XLF below 34.66. GTX is at 3508 and XLF ends yesterday at 34.80. It is all about commodities and the banks. If either one turns bearish, stocks are going to take a big dip lower and the bears will gain stronger control to the downside. Watch for a jog move where one of the parameters will drop below the line in the sand but then pop back above for a short while, then drop below again; this will likely tell you the turn lower is at hand.

If either GTX loses 3498, or XLF loses 34.66, and the SPX drops below 3886 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

Bulls must hold the line with the commodities and banks. XLF is trading a touch soft in the pre-market at 34.77; bears need another 11 pennies lower to begin growling loudly.

1/22/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/19/23; 12:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:38 AM EST = +14; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as a crazy week is off and stumbling. The quant has printed 10 numbers today alone and another hour of trading remains. The bulls and bears are battling on the tightrope with the algo number and signal line both at +30. Flip a coin.

Stock market direction is dictated by commodities and banks in the bull camp and utes and retail stocks in the bear camp. One of them will flinch and determine the direction ahead.

Bears need GTX under 3497 and XLF under 34.66 to create market carnage.

Bulls need UTIL above 977 and RTH above 163.01 to signal the all-clear for more upside with stocks.

Banks pop this afternoon with XLF up to 34.94. Watch GTX 3497 and RTH 163.01. The commodities and retail stocks will likely identify the winner going forward. For now, the battle continues and it is a Mexican standoff. One of them will flinch.

1/22/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/19/23; 12:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:38 AM EST = +14; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:23 AM EST = +0; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:22 AM EST = +14; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:14 AM EST = +30; signal line is +29
1/19/23; 10:48 AM EST = +14; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 10:07 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25
1/19/23; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22
1/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +21
1/18/23; 2:16 PM EST = +32; signal line is +19
1/18/23; 11:13 AM EST = +46; signal line is +17
1/17/23; 2:20 PM EST = +62; signal line is +13
1/17/23; 12:30 PM EST = +48; signal line is +10
1/17/23; 9:36 AM EST = +62; signal line is +7
1/15/23; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +5

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long in lazy trading last week. There must be a lot of traders home nursing eggnog hangovers still yet. The algo number remain 43 points above the signal line so the bulls are cruising the stock market highway without a care in the world.

The battle for stock market direction to start the holiday-shortened week will be decided between the utes and the commodities and SPX.

Bulls need either GTX above 3498 and/or SPX above 4037. Either one will create a big upside rally and both will create a bullish orgy so obscene it will make Caligula blush.

Bears need UTIL below 977 to officially stop the upside path and introduce some market negativity.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Thursday morning.

1/22/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/19/23; 9:00 AM EST =
1/15/23; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +5
1/13/23; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +3
1/10/23; 10:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +0
1/9/23; 3:30 PM EST = +32; signal line is -3
1/9/23; 10:21 AM EST = +48; signal line is -5
1/9/23; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is -8
1/8/23; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is -10

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Friday was a bull orgy with utilities, retail stocks and chips rallying sending the broad stock market significantly higher the SPX at 3900-ish. The bulls are cruising with their feet up on the dashboard since the algo number is 58 points above the signal line.

Friday was the Mexican standoff and the bulls win big. The bulls have to boost commodities and the SPX index to prove that the upside will sustain for many weeks. Bulls need GTX above 3500 and SPX above 4030 to create big upside in stocks.

Bears need weaker chips and retail stocks to stop the upside rally. Bears need RTH below 162 and SOX below 2596. LULU rips her yoga pants after bending over due to eating all the holiday treats and cookies over the last month. The sports retailers are sinking in the pre-market (NKE, UA, etc....) which will make RTH soggy.

The bulls do not have a care in the world sitting back expecting more upside.

1/15/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/13/23; 10:00 AM EST =
1/8/23; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is -10
1/6/23; 12:58 PM EST = +48; signal line is -12
1/6/23; 10:40 AM EST = +32; signal line is -15
1/6/23; 10:22 AM EST = +16; signal line is -17
1/6/23; 10:07 AM EST = +0; signal line is -18
1/6/23; 9:00 AM EST = -16; signal line is -19
1/5/23; 9:36 AM EST = -16; signal line is -19