STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls stage an orgy rally reversing the prior day's losses. The bull/bear battle continues as evidenced by the algo number and signal line both at +36. Keybot the Quant will likely flip long if the SPX can move above 7449 trending higher. As usual, a gap-up move would not be helpful for bulls and probably delay any potential move to the long side. This represents a +11 point move in the S&P futures overnight so that will give you a heads-up about tomorrow the last trading day of July.

The up and down circus is getting old but this is what erratic and unstable markets do. Utes and vol are running the show, and, as mentioned SPX 7449. UTIL 1158 and UTIL 1124 remain the two lines in the sand for tomorrow with price at 1133 causing both bullishness and bearishness in the stock market. One side or the other will likely win.

For all of next week, UTIL 1155.08 is the line in the sand replacing 1158.11 that will become meaningless, thus, watch 1155 tomorrow because that will provide insight into how stocks want to trade out of the gate on Monday.

VIX 19.17 is the line in the sand and price is at 17.09 getting jammed lower today so the bulls could win. Bears need 2 sticks higher to create selling pressure. Stocks may sell off but if the VIX remains below 19.17, the bears got buptkis and will fold like your cheap JC Penney suit. 

Let's assemble these hints that the quant provides. Bears are in control but need UTIL below 1124 and/or VIX above 19.17. The bears better eat their spinach, like Popeye, and show up with game tomorrow or they will fumble the ball back to the bulls.

The bulls need SPX above 7449 and the quant will likely flip long. If UTIL moves above 1158, this will likely be guaranteed. So bulls need the SPX to rally calmly higher gaining +11 points and more and also for utilities to rally.

Bears need to keep the SPX subdued and negative if possible while pulling utes lower and pushing volatility higher.

Keybot the Quant prints a prescheduled number tomorrow shortly after the cash open. Of course it does. May as well add drama on top of drama. S&P futures are up +12 this evening so the bulls have their chests puffed-out and know how to win the game tomorrow. Susan Tedeschi had to have her appendix yanked so a few gigs were cancelled. She does a great job with Little By Little. Eric Clapton is taking pictures in the background. Susan is married to Derek Trucks playing the slide next to her. His dad played the drums in the Allman Bros Band but unfortunately committed suicide. Get well soon Susan. 

8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/30/26; 7:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/29/26; 3:39 PM EST = +22; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 7403. The choppy whipsaw pig slop continues. The bears are in control of the stock market direction with the algo number 14 points below the signal line. Utilities and volatility are running the show. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

The negativity in utilities and spike higher in volatility usher-in yesterdays stock market weakness. UTIL 1158.11 and VIX 19.18 are the lines in the sand. VIX is at 19.40 in real-time starting to decorate its bear pad and create market weakness. UTIL 1124 is another line in the sand that may come into play if the price, now at 1141, continues lower.

Obviously, the bulls need UTIL above 1158 and/or VIX below 19.18. Either one would position the quant to flip long again in these chop suey markets. Bulls will be back in biz if both turn bullish.

Bears need UTIL below 1124 that will bring about a far lower stock market. Bears also need weaker copper but the red metal remains resilient and bullish propping up stocks. Copper futures are up over a couple percent this morning.

On the last trade that ran for a big two days, the quant program and the actual trading each lose a percent. Comically, it is death by a thousand cuts. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, that is the US stock market, is up +8%. The quant program is dead flat. Isn't that something. Seven months of drama and the computer program is exactly where it was at on January 1. Nowhere Man. The actual trading generated by the quant program is down -4% on the year thus far underperforming the benchmark by 12 percentage-points. The markets are trendless so the bulls and bears are chewed-up in the sideways meat grinder. Keybot the Quant exits DIA and enters PSQ.

Watch utilities and volatility for market direction. Also, keep a hairy eyeball on the banks and retail stocks. Copper appears to be in party mode again. 

8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/29/26; 3:39 PM EST = +22; signal line is +36
7/29/26; 2:06 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37
7/29/26; 10:05 AM EST = +22; signal line is +37; go short 7403 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +8.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.4%)
7/29/26; 10:01 AM EST = +38; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
7/29/26; 9:53 AM EST = +52; signal line is +37
7/28/26; 3:57 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
7/28/26; 10:06 AM EST = +52; signal line is +36
7/28/26; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +35
7/28/26; 9:48 AM EST = +38; signal line is +35
7/28/26; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35
7/27/26; 3:26 PM EST = +36; signal line is +35
7/27/26; 3:12 PM EST = +52; signal line is +36
7/27/26; 2:56 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
7/27/26; 2:25 PM EST = +52; signal line is +37
7/27/26; 12:58 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
7/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +37; go long 7479 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +9.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -3.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Tuesday session begins with 4 numbers printing off the bat including the prescheduled number. The bulls are in control of the stock market with the algo number 16 points above the signal line.

The market can be boiled down into 3 key metrics; utes, copper and vol.

The lines in the sand are UTIL 1158, CPER 37.93 and VIX 19.18. All are sitting in the bull camp creating lift in the US stock market but if you get up and grab a cup of coffee, it will probably be different when you get back.

The bulls goosed utilities higher out of the gate to firmly keep them in the bull camp. Copper is a game of pennies, copper pennies, where the bears can create negativity if they flex their muscles. Same-o with volatility. Bears need the VIX above 19.18, and staying above, and then above 20 and higher to create stock market turmoil.

Interestingly, vol turning bearish is likely not enough for the quant to want to flip short but if copper turned sour, that would be. Of course, both turning bearish would likely seal the deal for the downside. 

The bulls are kicking back and relaxing, despite the rout in chips, as long as they keep the VIX below 19.18 and CPER above 37.93. The bulls are pumping Today. Smashing Pumpkins.

8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/26; 10:06 AM EST = +52; signal line is +36
7/28/26; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +35
7/28/26; 9:48 AM EST = +38; signal line is +35
7/28/26; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35
7/27/26; 3:26 PM EST = +36; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side at SPX 7479 after yesterday's opening bell. The choppy sideways slop continues this year chewing up bulls and bears alike.

Utilities were the bell of the ball yesterday. The session started out happy with UTIL well above the 1158.11 line in the sand for this week, but that was short-lived. Utes folded like your cheap suit dropping below 1158 and then the battle continued all day long with UTIL ending in the bear camp at 1157. Obviously, there will be more drama today.

Bulls need stronger utilities to maintain buoyancy in the stock market. Chips also need to rally but they are taking the pipe again in the premarket. The KOSPI crashes overnight due to SK Hynix and Samsung, their two top semi's that make up the majority of the index, puking their guts out.

The bears need weaker copper, commodities and retail stocks, and higher volatility, to take back control of the stock market. Copper futures need to drop about -2.2% to help the bears. Copper is soggy this morning down -0.8% so the bears have more wood to chop.

XRT is above 89 and needs to drop to 87 to help the bears. The bear's hopes are placed into volatility. VIX 19.18 is the doorway to negativity for the stock market and in the wee hours this morning it crossed above but if you blinked, you missed it, because it quickly retreated once the bulls saw that the submerged VIX beachball may explode up and out of the water. VIX is at 18.93 as this is typed only a quarter (25 cents) away from trouble. Flip that coin.

What does all that mumbo-jumbo mean? Bulls are in control now and look to maintain control unless the VIX pops above 19.18 and/or CPER drops below 37.93, and/or XRT falls below 87. If any one of the three turn bearish, consider the turn to the downside to be imminent and if the SPX loses 7383 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the short side. The Fed meeting is tomorrow and stocks are typically buoyant 80% of the time leading into the rate decision.

On the last trade that ran for only 3 days, the quant program and actual trading each lose a little less than a percent. The choppy slop continues. For the year, the benchmark SPX is up about +9%, the quant program is up a percent, and the actual trading generated by the quant is down almost -4% underperforming the benchmark by 13 percentage-points. Keybot the Quant exited SH and entered DIA remaining in single ETF's until 8/9/26.

Watch utilities, volatility, copper and retail stocks. Bulls need higher utes and lower volatility. Bears need higher vol and lower copper and retail stocks. Roll those dice, baby. The Roller.

8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/27/26; 3:26 PM EST = +36; signal line is +35
7/27/26; 3:12 PM EST = +52; signal line is +36
7/27/26; 2:56 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
7/27/26; 2:25 PM EST = +52; signal line is +37
7/27/26; 12:58 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
7/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +37; go long 7479 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +9.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -3.6%)
7/26/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/24/26; 11:16 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37
7/24/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +38
7/23/26; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +39
7/23/26; 2:02 PM EST = +20; signal line is +40
7/23/26; 1:17 PM EST = +36; signal line is +41
7/23/26; 1:10 PM EST = +22; signal line is +41
7/23/26; 12:03 PM EST = +36; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 11:17 AM EST = +20; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 11:05 AM EST = +36; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 10:11 AM EST = +22; signal line is +42; go short 7423 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +8.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.5%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short in these topsy-turvy markets. Of course, in the craziness, the algo number and signal line are the same so the bulls and bears are battling back and forth with swords on the castle wall each trying not to fall off. Someone will win.

The chips failed out of the gate on Friday morning but the bulls pumped retail stocks to prevent any significant downside in the stock market. Utilities, retail stocks, copper, volatility and chips are the moving parts impacting stock market direction currently.

Utilities are key at the opening bell tomorrow morning. UTIL begins at 1173 above the 1158.11 line in the sand for all of next week. This will create bullishness in the stock market right away. Bears need to find a way to send UTIL below 1158, otherwise, they will end up with buptkis.

Same idea with volatility. Bears need VIX above 19.60 to prove they got game. It stocks sell off but the VIX does not go above 19.60, the bears got nothing and stocks will reverse to the upside.

Copper is also key. Bears need copper futures to drop -1.3% to create downside fuel for the stock market. The trading in copper and volatility overnight will provide a heads-up on how the US trading day will be, and keep in mind that utes are probably going to create lift in stocks.

Since utilities may turn bullish at the open, that means the quant will likely want to whipsaw back to the long side. The bulls, however, will also need the SPX to rally above 7461 heading higher so watch to see if S&P futures are up about +50 points. If UTIL is above 1158, and the SPX above 7461, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

Bulls need stronger semiconductors and if SOX moves above 12230, they are back in business for lots more upside in stocks. This, however, equates to about a +3.5% rally in chips.

Since the retail stocks were pumped to prevent Friday from collapsing, watch XRT 86.70. Price begins at 87.01 so the bears need about a -0.4% drop in XRT to bolster the case for more downside in stocks.

Bulls need UTIL above 1158 and that may be a given, and SPX above 7461 to flip the quant long, and SOX above 12230 will guarantee more bullish joy ahead.

Bears need to pull XRT below 86.70 right away since that will nullify a lot of the utility joy. Bears also need CPER below 37.85, VIX above 19.60 and UTIL below 1158 to create serious downside carnage for the stock market.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other Friday morning, both after the opening bells, and the July month of trading ends on Friday with August trading starting next Monday. The market has more moving parts than Tina Turner. What a great entertainer. Everybody loves Tina.

8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/26/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/24/26; 11:16 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37
7/24/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +38
7/23/26; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +39

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short today at SPX 7423 as the stock market storm rains down some negativity. Stocks are spewing out a lot of sideways choppy slop chewing up bulls and bears alike. The robot spits out 9 numbers today including the flip to the short side. The bears are running the show now but the algo number is only 3 points below the signal line not exactly a ringing endorsement of serious downside.

Retail stocks failed this morning during the initial down flush with stocks. Volatility popped higher so it looked like the bulls were going to receive their comeuppance today, and the quant flips short, but the remainder of the day was indecision and bulls and bears unable to make up their minds on what to do. Chips failed today but recovered at the end of the day and INTC is up in the afterhours so chips will likely remain buoyant.

While all this drama occurs, UTIL sneaks around in the bushes and almost runs high enough to tag the 1183 line in the sand for this week. This number is meaningless after tomorrow and replaced with 1158.11 for all for next week. UTIL is at 1173 so only 9 points away from creating big upside in stocks tomorrow, but even if it does not achieve 1183 tomorrow, but finishes the week above 1158, that will begin next week on an upbeat note for the bulls.

It boils down to a tag-team cage match. The lines in the sand are UTIL 1183, XRT 86.70, SOX 12274 and VIX 19.61. Utes, retail stocks, chips and volatility, respectively, are all that matter to stock market direction currently. Utilities and retail stocks are in the bear camp creating negativity in the stock market. Chips and volatility are in the bull camp creating joy in stocks and preventing any significant downside from occurring.

Thus, bears need SOX below 12274 and/or VIX above 19.61 to create market mayhem.

Bulls need UTIL above 1183 and/or XRT above 86.70. Either one flipping bullish would place the robot in position to go long.

On the last trade that ran for almost 2 weeks, the quant program loses -1.4% and the actual trading loses -1.5%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about +8%, the quant program is up a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the quant is down -3%. Keybot the Quant cannot gain traction with the non-stop choppy slop. The robot remains in the single ETF's due to the whipsaw timer triggered after the last trade. The robot will return to 2x ETF's on 8/9/26 or later. The quant drops down into the 1x ETF's to reduce risk in perceived whipsaw choppy conditions ahead. Keybot the Quant exited SPY and entered SH. Keep riding the storm with Jim. Riders On the Storm. Into this world we are thrown.

7/26/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/23/26; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +39
7/23/26; 2:02 PM EST = +20; signal line is +40
7/23/26; 1:17 PM EST = +36; signal line is +41
7/23/26; 1:10 PM EST = +22; signal line is +41
7/23/26; 12:03 PM EST = +36; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 11:17 AM EST = +20; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 11:05 AM EST = +36; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 10:11 AM EST = +22; signal line is +42; go short 7423 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +8.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.5%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.9%)
7/23/26; 10:02 AM EST = +36; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/21/26; 11:12 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
7/19/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:48 AM EST = +36; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:35 AM EST = +20; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:26 AM EST = +36; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:00 AM EST = +20; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains long
7/15/26; 10:37 AM EST = +48; signal line is +47
7/14/26; 9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +48
7/13/26; 12:36 PM EST = +48; signal line is +47
7/13/26; 11:10 AM EST = +64; signal line is +46
7/12/26; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +46
7/10/26; 9:36 AM EST = +50; signal line is +45
7/9/26; 3:33 PM EST = +34; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/9/26; 12:24 PM EST = +50; signal line is +45; go long 7534 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +10.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +3.2%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long navigating the Friday to today tumult. The algo number is 9 points above the signal line with the bulls in control so the last couple trading days of negativity amounted to buptkis.

Utilities, chips and volatility are the three parameters controlling stock market direction currently. All 3 are bullish creating lift to stocks and today's upside orgy is due to the semiconductors jumping back into the bull camp. In addition, Doctor Copper is bent over the gurney and goosed higher. The bulls are puffing out their chests. Volatility also remains subdued so the bulls mock the bears and send in more dip-buyers to buy, buy, buy.

Interestingly, the bulls are having trouble keeping utes buoyant. UTIL, or DJU, drops to 1136 today only 14 points above the UTIL 1122 line in the sand that would open the door to pain and misery. Price recovers to 1140.

The lines in the sand are UTIL 1122, SOX 12274 and VIX 19.61. Since the chips just switched sides, watch the SOX 12274 line in the sand as the most important number for today. Bears need 1 of the 3 to turn bearish to position the quant to go short again. Of course, 2 of 3 turning negative will mean that stocks are falling apart and if all 3 take the pipe, stocks will be falling like rocks. Why does a sock always disappear every time you do the wash? It appears that the sock heaven wanted it. Only the good socks disappear. Will the SOX get Lost today in Linkin Park?

7/26/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/21/26; 11:12 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
7/19/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 7 points below the signal line. The circus is in full swing as the crazy and erratic stock market behavior continues. Friday was a wild down day with the quant spitting out 6 numbers, including the 2 prescheduled numbers, but stocks finished off the bottom.

The imminent turn is in play because Keybot the Quant will likely flip short if the SPX drops down into the 7408-7431 area. A gap-down move, however, will delay any change. It would be best for the bears if they send the SPX slowly lower.

The bulls need stronger utilities and chips if they want to take stocks higher. Bears need weaker copper and utilities to create mayhem.

Bulls need UTIL above 1183 and SOX above 12370 to save the day and create upside in stocks.

Bears need UTIL below 1122 and there will be Hell to pay. Bears need CPER below 37.81 to create broad stock market selling and price is only 11 cents above at 37.92. Pay attention to copper.

The VIX had a 19 handle on Friday but that was still not good enough for bears to slash deeply. Real trouble starts for stocks if the VIX moves above 20.18 heading higher.

Keybot the Quant does not print any prescheduled numbers this week. Copper, utilities and chips are controlling US stock market direction currently. Copperhead Road.

7/26/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/19/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:48 AM EST = +36; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:35 AM EST = +20; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:26 AM EST = +36; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:00 AM EST = +20; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains long
7/15/26; 10:37 AM EST = +48; signal line is +47
7/14/26; 9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +48
7/13/26; 12:36 PM EST = +48; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading is off and stumbling. The bulls are in control but only by one measly point. Flip a coin for the stock market.

Copper stayed in the bull camp all day. Utilities also remained status quo. Chips soiled the sheets. Commodities run higher due to King Donnie's latest proclamation of taking over the Strait of Hormuz and charging ships for passage exactly what we want to fight against Iran from doing. The orange head is clueless. Comically, Iran is mocking Trump for this same obvious reason. What a screw-up. Higher commodities is higher goods inflation is higher oil is higher gasoline is higher food.

Bulls need to prove that they got game by pushing UTIL above 1174 and/or SOX above 12401.

Bears need to pull UTIL below 1121, and/or CPER below 37.80 and/or GTX below 5130. There are a lot of moving parts including retail stocks. Keeping it simple so you can have something to watch, if any 1 of the three turn bearish, and the SPX falls below 7506 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

All of those parameters are walking a tightrope so Anything Can Happen by pretty Ellie.

Pay attention to SOX (chips) and CPER (copper). Since the algo number is only 1 point above the signal line, with the bulls holding on by a fingernail, the bears may try and jog the chips to get the model to flip negative. If SOX pops back above 12401 with the bulls puffing their chest, but then falls back below 12401 again making bears smile, or perhaps does it a couple times, it may be enough for the algo number to slip below the signal line and cause the quant to flip short so keep that in mind if you see SOX dancing to and fro above and below 12401.

It should be an exciting week ahead in Funkytown.

7/19/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/17/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/17/26; 9:00 AM EST =
7/13/26; 12:36 PM EST = +48; signal line is +47
7/13/26; 11:10 AM EST = +64; signal line is +46
7/12/26; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after the crazy ride last week but the algo number is only 4 measly points above the signal line. That should continue this week. The bulls pumped copper at Friday's opening bell so the fix was in and the week would end on a positive note, and it did.

Utilities could not get above 1152 on Friday to lock in more upside joy for stocks and this number is now meaningless and replaced with 1174 for all of this week a harder number to reach.

Let's call Monday a cage match with Doctor Copper versus Ute. Utilities and copper enter the cage but only one will exit. UTIL, 1174, UTIL 1121 and CPER 37.79 are the lines in the sand to begin the week.

UTIL, or DJU, begins at 1150 so 24 upside points will guarantee a bull victory ahead and new all-time record highs for the stock market. However, a drop of 29 points will open the gates to Hell for stocks.

Copper is creating bullishness for equities with CPER at 37.99 above the 37.79 line in the sand. Will copper reverse to the downside out of the gate on Monday the reversal move of what it did on Friday morning? Copper futures trade overnight so watch to see if a -0.5% pullback is occurring, or not. Stocks will be in trouble if you see copper trading down more than a half percent.

The stage is set. Bulls win by keeping copper elevated and pushing UTIL above 1174. Bears win by keeping utilities week, and moving down towards UTIL 1121, and pushing CPER below 37.79. If copper turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to be in play for the quant, and then if the SPX drops below 7508, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The stock market is a mess right now extremely erratic and unstable while market participants remain over the top bullish wanting to buy any dip. There is likely more drama to come in the week ahead. Chips are creating bullishness so watch that sector for weakness. Same-o with retail stocks so watch for any weakness there. Commodities are creating negativity in stocks as oil prices drop (oil companies retreat) but they are headed higher again in recent days. If pressure rains down on stocks, will the dip-buyers show up? Who'll Stop the Rain? Confusion on the ground.

7/19/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/17/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/17/26; 9:00 AM EST =
7/12/26; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +46
7/10/26; 9:36 AM EST = +50; signal line is +45
7/9/26; 3:33 PM EST = +34; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at munch time today at SPX 7534. Welcome to Crazyville it is down the road from Rockville. Yesterday, the quant flipped short but by the end of the session, it wanted to whipsaw back to the long side. Today, the robot flips to the long side but by the end of the session, it wants to whipsaw back to the short side. The US stock market is extremely unstable and erratic.

Copper and utilities are running the show today. The price action is bazaar with copper and utes turning bullish but if you get a cup of coffee, by the time you get back they are bearish. Markets are all over the place flinching at shadows.

UTIL 1151.70 is a bull/bear line in the sand for one more day and is then replaced with 1173.99 for all of next week. Price is at 1143 creating market negativity. The bulls have their work cut out for them because they must not only move price above 1152 tomorrow, but then above 1174 by the closing bell to be properly set up for next week. That is a tall order. The other utility line in the sand is 1120 and price is not far away at 1143. Bulls win above 1152 and set up a happy stock market for next week if 1174 and higher is achieved by the closing bell. Bears need UTIL below 1120 to introduce negativity with stocks slumping lower. Is that clear as mud?

CPER 37.79 is a line in the sand and price is at 37.75 only 4 pennies away. If copper is positive overnight into tomorrow, stocks are going to rally higher. If, however, CPER remains below 37.79 heading lower, a pall will be cast over the stock market.

Commodities are important with the GTX 5128 line in the sand with price at 5047. Same dealio as copper.

Also watch retail stocks to see if XRT falls below 85.62 that will create negativity.

If the SPX slips below 7482, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side. This is a -62 point drop, however, and a formidable task.

The bulls need stronger utes, copper and commodities. The bulls will be back in business and happy into the weekend if either UTIL moves above 1152, CPER above 37.79, and/or GTX above 5128. Any 1 of the 3 flipping bullish will cause the bulls to puff their chests. 2 of 3 turning bullish will create bigtime upside in stocks and if all 3 flip bullish, the SPX is likely headed to new all-time record highs.

On the last trade that ran for about 8 hours, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses -2%. The benchmark SPX is up +10% this year. The quant program is up +3% this year with the actual trading down a percent. The market gyrations create an extremely difficult environment for quants to function. The whipsaw causes the robot to drop down into the single ETF's for 30 days to lower risk. Keybot the Quant exits SDS and enters SPY.

Utilities and copper will tell you who wins tomorrow.

7/12/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/9/26; 3:33 PM EST = +34; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/9/26; 12:24 PM EST = +50; signal line is +45; go long 7534 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +10.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +3.2%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.4%)
7/9/26; 11:11 AM EST = +50; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
7/9/26; 11:02 AM EST = +66; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
7/9/26; 10:38 AM EST = +50; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
7/9/26; 10:31 AM EST = +66; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains short
7/9/26; 9:48 AM EST = +50; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
7/9/26; 9:44 AM EST = +34; signal line is +39
7/8/26; 12:55 PM EST = +50; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
7/8/26; 12:15 PM EST = +34; signal line is +39
7/8/26; 11:20 AM EST = +18; signal line is +39
7/8/26; 10:39 AM EST = +34; signal line is +40; go short 7451 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +8.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +4.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the bear side at SPX 7451 yesterday. It is a wild and crazy ride and the quant wants to already flip back to the bull side with the algo number 10 points above the signal line.

The chips failed after the long never-ending rally but recovered at lunch time. Utilities, chips, retail stocks, commodities and copper are running the show.

UTIL is at 1151.82 threatening the breakdown at the 1151.70 line in the sand. The quant told you a week ago that the 1151.70 would be important for this week. No one else told you that. Isn't it impressive?

Other lines in the sand are SOX 12310, XRT 85.60, GTX 5133 and CPER 37.73. The drama yesterday was centered around UTIL 1151.70, SOX 12310 and XRT 85.60 so watch those metrics closely.

Utilities, chips and retail stocks are creating bullishness in the stock market while commodities and copper create negativity. The bears need utes, chips or retail stocks to turn bearish to maintain negativity. If 2 of the 3 or all 3 turn negative, stocks will fall apart.

On the bull side, with the algo champing at the bit to whipsaw long again, the bulls only need to see the SPX above 7489 and moving higher to flip the model long, hence the imminent turn is in the title line. This is only +6 points that are needed and the S&P futures are up +23 points. This poses a different problem, however, because a gap-up open is not good for the bulls because it may trigger the gap-up timer and cause the quant to hold off for about 1-1/2 hours before committing to the long side. However, in the craziness that exists, who knows what will happen next?

On the last trade, that ran for a week, the quant program lost a smidge and the actual trading loses about a percent. For the year, already half gone, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +9%. The quant program is up +4% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a percent so far this year. Keybot the Quant exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's. Crazy by Patsy Cline. What a voice.

7/12/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/8/26; 12:55 PM EST = +50; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
7/8/26; 12:15 PM EST = +34; signal line is +39
7/8/26; 11:20 AM EST = +18; signal line is +39
7/8/26; 10:39 AM EST = +34; signal line is +40; go short 7451 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +8.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +4.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.8%)
7/7/26; 3:59 PM EST = +50; signal line is +39
7/7/26; 2:47 PM EST = +34; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
7/7/26; 12:26 PM EST = +50; signal line is +39
7/7/26; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
7/7/26; 9:54 AM EST = +50; signal line is +38
7/7/26; 9:47 AM EST = +66; signal line is +37
7/7/26; 9:36 AM EST = +50; signal line is +36
7/6/26; 2:15 PM EST = +50; signal line is +36
7/6/26; 10:21 AM EST = +34; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
7/5/26; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +36
7/2/26; 9:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +35
6/30/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +38; signal line is +35
6/30/26; 10:44 AM EST = +38; signal line is +34
6/30/26; 10:27 AM EST = +54; signal line is +34
6/30/26; 10:04 AM EST = +38; signal line is +33; go long 7470 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +9.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +4.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2026 = +1.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long although the bears tried to flip stocks to their side today. Utilities and copper were/are key. To start the day, utes were in the bull camp creating positivity in stocks but copper was in the bear camp creating negativity. Today, it was the ole switcheroo. Utes failed so stocks started to run out of gas, stumble sideways, and then roll over after lunch time. The bulls then shot morphine into Doctor Copper's dupa and he recovered running higher taking stocks higher.

The same drama is in store for tomorrow. The bull/bear lines in the sand are UTIL 1151.70, UTIL 1120, and CPER 37.77.

Copper is bullish but only by a few pennies with price sitting at 37.84. If the red metal falls back below 37.77, stocks will sell off. UTIL price is at 1148 so the bears are happy below 1152. Bears must send UTIL below 1120 that will begin big trouble with stocks.

Bulls need to keep copper bullish and win back utilities. Bulls need UTIL back above 1152 and it will be smooth sailing ahead for more upside.

If CPER loses 37.77, and the SPX drops below 75 hundo, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short so pay attention. Copper and utilities are running the show. The slaves work in the mines to pull out the copper and minerals to build technology for the privileged class. Blue Sky Mine. Hey, hey, hey, hey, if I work all day on the Blue Sky Mine, there'll be food on the table tonight, nothing's as precious as a hole in the ground.

7/12/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/6/26; 2:15 PM EST = +50; signal line is +36
7/6/26; 10:21 AM EST = +34; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
7/5/26; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market circus rolls along. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 14 points above the signal line.

Utilities and copper are key. On Thursday, stocks soured and were putting in lows through munch time that is when the utes were goosed. Utilities were pumped and when UTIL went up through 1152 (the bull/bear line in the sand for this week), stocks shot off the bottom and both ran higher into the 3-day holiday weekend.

UTIL is at 1162 ten points above the 1152 line in the sand for this week. The bulls maintaining price above 1152 does not give them extra strength it only maintains the status quo. Obviously, bears need weaker utilities and UTIL dropping below 1152 would be a signal that there is trouble ahead for the stock market. If 1152 would fail, the quant would be in position to go short but likely needs about a -55 point retreat by the SPX. If UTIL is dropping and takes out 1120, it is lights out for stocks that will take a substantive nosedive in price in quick order. Bulls simply need to keep their head above water at 1152.

Bulls need CPER above 37.83 and a rise in copper will create more upside joy for US stocks. This equates to about a +1.4% rise in copper futures so watch that closely overnight.

If the status quo remains with UTIL above 1152 and CPER below 37.83, stocks will chop along sideways with a slight upward bias.

If UTIL remains above 1152, and CPER pops above 37.83, it is off to the races for the bulls with higher prices for stocks on the come.

If UTIL loses 1152 heading lower, and copper remains negative, the quant will likely be in position to go short. If the SPX then falls below 7428, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, however, you have to wait and see what the 1's and 0's decide.

If UTIL loses 1120, stocks are already falling and the situation will go from bad to far worse. Keybot the Quant does not print any prescheduled numbers this week so the price action solely dictates the model behavior. Bulls need to root for stronger copper while bears are cheering for lower utilities.

As a side note, chips and retail stocks are standing in the wings as potential thorns in the bull's dupa. Stocks will be in serious trouble if either SOX or XRT lose -3% so pay attention to their behavior. Donnie Trumpski cancelled the bands and entertainment a couple weeks ago and instead gave a campaign speech into midnight last night in Washington, DC, for the July 4th holiday. The fireworks followed on July 5th, today. Weather and poor planning plagued the lame 250 events. People want to hear live music, jackasses. An Independence Day without Martina is not the same. That is how you put on a show, folks.

7/12/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/5/26; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +36
7/2/26; 9:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 15 points above the signal line. The bulls run higher into the 3-day holiday weekend, so far.  Utes, vol and copper are all that matter to stock market direction currently.

Copper is firmly in the bear camp creating a pall on stocks with CPER below 37.87.

Volatility is firmly in the bull camp creating positivity in stocks with VIX below 20.46.

Utilities is the one to watch. UTIL 1122 and 1118 are the two key lines in the sand this week replaced with 1152 and 1118 for next week. Price is at 1146 above the 1122 creating bullishness for stocks now. However, if price finishes here, below 1152 the key number for next week, that will create negativity out of the gate Monday morning and Keybot the Quant will be champing at the bit to go short.

You will know the answer going into today's closing bell. If UTIL finishes where it is at now, below 1152, the bears plan on coming to play next week and the quant may flip short Monday morning.

If UTIL rallies today and ends the week above 1152, the bulls are on easy street and buoyancy in stocks would be expected to continue next week. Choose your poison. Bret Michaels of Poison bowed out of King Donnie Chumpski's 250 state fair fiasco like the other artists. Comically, Donnie is going to provide a campaign speech instead in the scorching heat. What a failure. People want to hear music, jackass. Every Rose Has Its Thorn. Sometimes it is an orange thorn.

7/5/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/2/26; 9:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +35
6/30/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +38; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with utilities, copper and volatility in charge. July trading begins today the start of Q3 and H2. 

Bulls need stronger copper and CPER above 37.88 to print more upside gains in equities. Copper came out of the gate yesterday filled with p*ss and vinegar running higher like a banshee but then stumbling, tripping, and falling on its sword. Doctor Copper is back in the emergency room. As copper goes, so goes stocks.

Bears need to keep copper weak while pulling utilities lower and pushing volatility higher. Bears need UTIL below 1122 and 1118 to create a quick downside flush. If the 1118-1122 level fails today or tomorrow, there will be Hell to pay and the stock market may go into a crash profile moving forward.

For next week, since there is only tomorrow remaining in this week's trading due to the Friday holiday, UTIL 1122 becomes a worthless number replaced with 1151.70. Thus, watch utilities closely tomorrow because where they end the week will provide a heads-up on the stock market for next week. If UTIL, or DJU, ends the week below 1152, that will create stock market negativity come Monday morning when traders are hungover from the weekend festivities. UTIL is at 1142 as this is typed looking at the bear camp and deciding if it wants to join. It can join now if it loses 20 points.

Bears also need VIX above 20.46 to create substantive downside damage. If stocks sell off at anytime, for example they are soggy today so far, but the VIX remains below 20.46, the bears got nothing and the bulls will keep smiling. Stock market misery begins in earnest when the VIX pops above 20.46 heading higher.

Bulls win with CPER above 37.88. Bears will win with UTIL below 1118-1122 and stocks will have no chance if VIX pops above 20.46. The price action is flattish today because everyone is waiting for the US Monthly Jobs Report tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST. Everyone is Working for the Weekend since it is party time. This song was a party anthem for several years in the 1980's blaring from car windows every Friday across the United States in anticipation of a couple days of fun and frolic ahead. Too bad you losers these days are tied to your jobs via email and such 24/7. Don't you know that will make you mentally disturbed? Take your two days off to recharge your batteries. Go chase some skirts. Turn up the amp. When you hear the cowbell it is time to par-tay!!

7/5/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/2/26; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +38; signal line is +35
6/30/26; 10:44 AM EST = +38; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today at SPX 7470 after a couple weeks of teasing. The bulls jammed volatility lower, the VIX now sporting a 16 handle, and goosed copper higher. Doctor Copper jumped off the gurney and is dancing a jig although his legs remain weak.

CPER 37.91 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price is a hair below as this is typed. As copper goes, so goes the market. Bulls need CPER back above 37.91 or they got nothing. Utilities were weak out of the gate this morning but recovered.

Volatility, utilities and copper are the main drivers of the stock market currently. Vol and utes are liking their accommodations in the bull camp and are inclined to stay a while. Copper is the decider. Bulls win with CPER above 37.91 while bears will win the battle below.

On the last trade, that ran for the whole month of June, humorously, it feels like it was three months, the quant program gains a percent  and the actual trading ends up with buptkis. Stocks were all over the place and after a month ended up where they started. For the year thus far, with today marking the EOM, EOQ2 and EOH1, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +9% so the bulls are happy. The quant program is up +5% on the year and the actual trading is up only a percent this year underperforming the benchmark SPX by about 8 percentage points. The robot exited QID and entered SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's.

Copper tells the story this week and then volatility and utilities will take the ball from there. Do not be surprised if the quant whipsaws back to the short side since the algo number is only 4 points above the signal line. The bulls shout, "Let's go!" Blitzkrieg Bop. Dee Dee always yells, "1-2-3-4!" Those were the days.

7/5/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/2/26; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/30/26; 10:44 AM EST = +38; signal line is +34
6/30/26; 10:27 AM EST = +54; signal line is +34
6/30/26; 10:04 AM EST = +38; signal line is +33; go long 7470 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +9.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +4.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2026 = +1.4%)
6/30/26; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
6/29/26; 9:36 AM EST = +39; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
6/28/26; 7:00 PM EST = +23; signal line is +32
6/26/26; 10:00 AM EST = +23; signal line is +32
6/23/26; 9:36 AM EST = +23; signal line is +33
6/21/26; 7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
6/18/26; 3:33 PM EST = +39; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
6/18/26; 3:08 PM EST = +23; signal line is +30
6/18/26; 9:36 AM EST = +39; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
6/17/26; 3:25 PM EST = +23; signal line is +29
6/16/26; 9:00 AM EST = +39; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
6/15/26; 10:15 AM EST = +39; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
6/15/26; 9:36 AM EST = +23; signal line is +28
6/14/26; 7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 3:59 PM EST = +39; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 3:39 PM EST = +23; signal line is +28
6/12/26; 2:37 PM EST = +39; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 11:01 AM EST = +23; signal line is +26
6/12/26; 10:42 AM EST = +37; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 10:09 AM EST = +53; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 10:00 AM EST = +37; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
6/11/26; 1:38 PM EST = +37; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
6/11/26; 8:24 AM EST = +23; signal line is +25
6/11/26; 8:03 AM EST = +37; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
6/11/26; 7:01 AM EST = +23; signal line is +24
6/11/26; 4:07 AM EST = +37; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
6/10/26; 10:51 AM EST = +23; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
6/10/26; 9:48 AM EST = +37; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
6/10/26; 4:50 AM EST = +23; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
6/9/26; 1:41 PM EST = +37; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
6/9/26; 12:07 PM EST = +23; signal line is +24
6/8/26; 9:52 AM EST = +37; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
6/8/26; 3:06 AM EST = +21; signal line is +25
6/7/26; 7:00 PM EST = +7; signal line is +25
6/5/26; 3:59 PM EST = +7; signal line is +27
6/5/26; 3:50 PM EST = +21; signal line is +28
6/5/26; 3:21 PM EST = +7; signal line is +29
6/5/26; 3:09 PM EST = +21; signal line is +30
6/5/26; 2:03 PM EST = +37; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
6/5/26; 10:56 AM EST = +21; signal line is +31
6/5/26; 9:00 AM EST = +37; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
6/4/26; 9:36 AM EST = +37; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
6/3/26; 3:59 PM EST = +21; signal line is +33
6/3/26; 12:27 PM EST = +5; signal line is +34; go short 7559 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +10.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +3.3%)(Actual results this trade = +4.9%; Actual results for 2026 = +1.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short and was not impressed with last week's action. The robot only printed 2 numbers last week and one was a prescheduled number on Friday. Perhaps the quant will be awakened from its idle slumber in the holiday-shortened week ahead.

Utilities, copper and volatility are running the show right now. The bulls jammed utes higher last week to try and take out the risk of a major crash in stocks. The UTIL lines in the sand this week are 1121.89 and 1118. Price begins at 1166 so this surpasses the 1122 and will create bullishness in the stock market. The bears need to pull UTIL, or DJU, below 1122 pronto to prove they still got downside game.

For the week of 7/6/26, UTIL 1151.70 will be a line in the sand replacing the 1121.89. Perhaps the bulls can keep utes elevated this week but watch the closing price on Thursday afternoon to receive a heads-up for the following week.

There is a lot jammed into this week only a 4-day week due to the July 4th holiday weekend. US markets are closed on Friday. Keybot the Quant prints a prescheduled number on Tuesday morning and then on Tuesday evening since it is the end of June trading that is also the end of the first quarter and the end of the first half of the year. Time flies when you're having fun. Keybot prints a prescheduled number on Thursday morning before the opening bell.

VIX 20.67 is a key line in the sand for the week ahead. Price begins at 18.41 in overnight trading so watch to see if it wants to run above 20 and higher, or not. Rising volatility would create negativity offsetting the positivity from the utilities.

CPER 37.93 is another line in the sand with price starting at 37.33 creating negativity. This corresponds to about a +1.6% gain in copper futures that the bulls need so watch that overnight. Commodities and copper have collapsed as oil prices retreat so goods inflation, and to some extent services inflation, should decrease going forward contrary to Fed Chairman Warsh's comments otherwise.

UTIL above 1122 will place the model in position to go long. If the SPX then runs above 7393 heading higher (about +40 points on the S&P futures), Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. If CPER can regain 37.93, the bulls will be throwing a bigtime upside party.

The bears are likely going to have to live with the utes turning positive so their focus will be to prevent SPX 7393 from happening at all costs. The bears need VIX above 20.67 to introduce serious selling pressure. It has been a lot of choppy baby stuff the last couple weeks because volatility remains tame.

Bulls win big with UTIL above 1122, SPX above 7393, and CPER above 37.93.

Bears win big if they can pull UTIL below 1122 or at least end the week on Thursday with UTIL below 1152 to set up trouble for the following week. Bears need VIX above 20.67 to create stock market ugliness. Bears are going to fold like your cheap suit if they cannot push volatility higher.

The bulls can take the ball and run with it so it will be an interesting couple days to close out June trading. The US and Iran keep trading missile and drone strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. A wild card would be stocks tanking out of the gate Monday because King Donnie is clueless and has no strategy for his Iran War. Futures begin trading at 6 PM EST 12 hours from now. No doubt Donnie will bloviate this afternoon to try and influence the futures trading.

7/5/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/2/26; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/30/26; 10:00 AM EST =
6/28/26; 7:00 PM EST = +23; signal line is +32
6/26/26; 10:00 AM EST = +23; signal line is +32
6/23/26; 9:36 AM EST = +23; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 10 points below the signal line. The robot is sleepy this week despite the daily drama. The bulls are goosing utilities this week. They figure that if a stock market selloff occurs they at least want to try and take a crash scenario off the table.

The bulls need UTIL, or DJU, above 1180 tomorrow and stocks will catapult higher. Price begins the session at 1158. For next week, the 1180 is meaningless and replaced with 1122. With price up at 1158 well above 1122, the bulls will have a big advantage when they come to play on Monday. Bulls need a +3% rally in copper to create a lot of upside strength for stocks a formidable task.

For the bears that comically remain in control through all the turmoil, higher volatility is needed to slice the market open and let it bleed out onto Wall and Broad. Bears need VIX above 20.68 and moving higher for all Hell to break loose in the stock market. If VIX remains below 20.68, the bears got buptkis.

Bulls will win with UTIL above 1180 and/or CPER above 37.93.

Bears win if VIX moves above 20.68. Bears must find a way to weaken the utilities and send them lower below 1116-1122.

Keybot the Quant prints the prescheduled number tomorrow morning shortly after the opening bell. A new one from Jesse Welles called Won't You Come Out Tonight?.

6/28/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/26/26; 10:00 AM EST =
6/23/26; 9:36 AM EST = +23; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 10 points below the signal line. The bulls had the stock market on a silver platter yesterday but they did not want it. The one thing they did not want to see was a gap up open but that is what occurred.  Typically, a gap up move results in stocks pulling back. Conversely, a gap down move at the open typically leads to a recover rally. The SPX jumped higher on Monday but in quick order it fell on its sword.

Overnight, the KOSPI (South Korea) crashes -10% opening the door to a tech rout. The tech selloff cascades around the globe and US stocks are soggy today.

Interestingly, utilities have not failed at the 1116-1117 line in the sand. Price rallies to 1139. Doctor Copper collapsed creating the weakness in stocks. CPER 37.96 is the line in the sand and price at 37.52 creates negativity in the stock market. Bulls desperately need copper to recover.

The VIX pops on today's sell off to 19.54 but the line in the sand is VIX 20.69. Bears will not create carnage unless they push the VIX above 20.69. That is when the blood will flow on Wall and Broad.

Bears need VIX above 20.69, UTIL below 1117 and weaker retail stocks and banks. This scenario will create pain and misery.

Bulls need CPER above 37.96 to save the day and make the bears look like chumps. Copper and volatility are key with utilities in the mix as well. The bulls are trying to keep utes elevated because that will enable them to experience a run of the mill pullback with stocks instead of a drastic and horrific crash. If UTIL loses 1117, there will be Hell to pay.

6/28/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/26/26; 10:00 AM EST =
6/23/26; 9:36 AM EST = +23; signal line is +33
6/21/26; 7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the ongoing drama and fight for stock market control continues. The robot wants to flip long with the algo number 6 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not latch to permit the move. If the SPX moves above 7511 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. You want to see a slow steady move higher not a gap-up open. Watch the S&P futures to see if +11 points are showing.

There are several parameters at play. Retail stocks, banks and copper are key and helping maintain stock market buoyancy. A drop of -2% to -3% for each is needed to create substantive negativity in stocks. Volatility dropped helping the bulls. The VIX needs to climb 4 handles above 20.62 to lock-in serious downside negativity.

Utilities are the key. The market makers know this that is why they stick-saved the utes at the end of the Thursday session. Utilities are important in the very near term and then also for the coming weeks if stocks begin selling off.

UTIL 1180.42 and 1116.40 are the two bull/bear lines in the sand for the week ahead. Price begins at 1120 creating bearishness in stocks since it is below 1180 but also creating stock market lift since it is above the critical 1116. Bears need UTIL, or DJU, below 1116.40 immediately since it will snuff out the bulls hopes for going long.

If UTIL then remains below 1116 trending lower, losing 11 hundo, and the broad stock market is selling off, it tells you that there is a high likelihood that stocks are headed for a major crash. Bulls simply need to keep sending UTIL higher and they will be headed for more new record highs with stocks.

It is a cage match on the Whitehouse lawn with the bulls winning with SPX 7511 and higher versus the bears winning with UTIL 1116 and lower. When you look up rock 'n roll in the dictionary, you see The Rolling Stones. Respectable. We're talking heroin with the president. You're the easiest lay on the Whitehouse lawn.

6/28/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/26/26; 10:00 AM EST = 
6/21/26; 7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
6/18/26; 3:33 PM EST = +39; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
6/18/26; 3:08 PM EST = +23; signal line is +30
6/18/26; 9:36 AM EST = +39; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama continues. The robot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 9 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move. The SPX will likely need to move above 7565 today to flip the quant long and price is at 7480 in real-time. The bulls have some more wood to chop.

Utilities are key. UTIL 1116.40 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price pops higher to 1120 creating lift in the broad stock market. Bears need UTIL back below 1116 or they got nothing. Bears will not be able to make any headway sending stocks lower unless the VIX moves above 20.72.

Stocks are typically bullish into a 3-day holiday weekend. Markets are closed tomorrow for Juneteenth.

Bears need weaker utes, retail stocks, banks, and copper and higher volatility. Bulls simply need to keep pushing the SPX higher and if they do not have success today, perhaps their persistence will pay off early next week. If UTIL falls back below 1116, and then below 11 hundo, look out below because stocks will likely collapse. Watch the utilities.

6/21/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/26; 9:36 AM EST = +39; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
6/17/26; 3:25 PM EST = +23; signal line is +29
6/16/26; 9:00 AM EST = +39; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
6/15/26; 10:15 AM EST = +39; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short despite the big rally and stock market euphoria.  There are weird things happening. At the open, stocks explode higher because of King Donnie's happy Iran War talk, but utilities fail. That is strange. Utes did rally after that but this drama will likely continue.

When the quant wants to go long, the last thing you want is a gap-up move since it activates a gap timer that forces the robot to wait before flipping long, like this morning. Typically, gap-up moves will fade. There is strange price action occurring. Keybot came very close to flipping long several times today, but each time it would be held back and prevented due to one of the metrics unlatching. Tomorrow may resolve the odd action.

Utilities, commodities and the SPX are all that matter. The quant wants to go long. Keybot the Quant will likely flip long if the SPX moves above 7578. Watch the futures overnight to see if +23 points are there for the bulls, and they do not want to see a big gap-up open again.

Utilities are creating market joy while commodities create negativity. It is a cage match and will be fought in the octagon at the Whitehouse; UTIL versus GTX, be there or be square. Bears need UTIL below 1116.40 to create negativity in the stock market and take away the threat from the bulls flipping the quant long.

Bulls need to prove they got game to take stocks higher so they need commodities. Bulls need GTX above 5230, otherwise, the upside is limited. Bears win with weaker utes while bulls win with stronger commodities and indexes.

Humorously, the quant flipped short on 6/3/26 two weeks ago and the SPX is at about the same price now; a round trip. All the recent downside drama is forgotten when you have two big active stock market pumpers; King Donnie and Mister AI. Domo arigato misuta roboto. Mr Roboto.

6/21/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/16/26; 9:00 AM EST =
6/15/26; 10:15 AM EST = +39; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
6/15/26; 9:36 AM EST = +23; signal line is +28
6/14/26; 7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short navigating the circus that is called the stock market. Last week was set up for craziness and it did not disappoint. Another King Donnie Chumpski stick save rescues the stock market at least for the near-term. Stocks rally on news that the Iran War situation is resolved, or is it? Retail stocks, banks and copper jump higher sending stocks higher. Interesting, in the smoke and haze, no one noticed that commodities failed. The bulls then pumped utilities higher late in the session on Friday to guarantee the happy ending. Avril and My Happy Ending.

Despite the wild ride, and Keybot spitting out 7 numbers on Friday including the prescheduled number, and the algo number 10 points above the signal line, the robot remains short. The stock market is hanging on news about Donnie's Iran War fiasco. Is there a deal? No deal? A lousy deal? Futures begin trading at 6 PM EST so watch for the rhetoric to heat up this afternoon as Donnie, and Iran, make statements to sway markets and global opinion.

Baby Trump insists that Iran sign an agreement today, on his 80th birthday since symbolism is all that matters to the fool, but Iran says they will definitely not sign the agreement today. Huh? It is all pure jackass stuff. The Middle East is 7 hours ahead so at 5 PM EST (US East Coast time), it will already be Monday in Iran. Thus, the so-called agreement needs to be signed within 12 hours from this message to make the Sunday deadline.

The Fed meeting is Wednesday and Chairman Warsh's debut performance in the top job. Obviously, that will impact markets in the week ahead depending on if he is wearing the black feathered wings for a hawkish position or the white feathered wings, borrowed from the Victoria's Secret show, for a dovish position. The crosscurrents remain a tangled mess. Stocks typically rally into the Fed meeting but today is the peak of the new moon for the month and equities are typically weak moving through the new moon.

Putting all the drama aside, the robot only sees 1's and 0's, and is fixated on utilities, volatility and commodities as the key metrics that will impact stocks out of the gate tomorrow.

Utes and volatility are in the bull camp creating a lift in stocks while commodities are in the bear camp creating negativity. Bears need UTIL below 1115 pronto to prove they got game. Price begins the week at 1116. The quant has told you many days that 1115 is key and you saw price continuing to come up, and get spanked down from that level, until Friday when it poked up through albeit by a hair. Utilities are key because they tell you if the pullback in stocks will be a run of the mill selloff followed by a recovery, or if stocks will go into a crash or semi-crash profile. It is fun stuff.

Bears also need VIX above 20.70 or they got nothing. Equities may sell off but if the VIX remains below 20.70, the bears got buptkis, and stocks will recover and rally.

The bulls want to flip the model short right now and need to show up Monday loaded for bear if they want to take control of the stock market. The bulls need the SPX to move above 7456 and Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. The S&P 500 begins at 7431 so watch the futures overnight to see if +25 points are there for the bulls.

Bulls also need stronger commodities if they want to make a run higher again. Bulls need GTX above 5236 with price starting at 5224. Friday's action was wild because commodities failed before munch time and the quant was finally ready to flip long with the internals latching properly, but the algo number was not above the signal line, and then when utilities won the day late in the session placing the algo number back above the signal line, the internal parameters would not fully latch again to permit the move to the long side. It is wild and crazy stuff. Two Wild and Crazy Guys.

Simplifying, bulls need SPX 7456 to flip the model long. GTX above 5236 will then create a stronger rally for stocks. Bears simply need to push UTIL, or DJU, below 1115, only a point away, to keep the stock market ball firmly in their hands. Bears will create a new leg lower in the stock market if the VIX pops above 20.70 so keep an eye on that overnight.

If you have a limited platform, you can keep track of the commodities price at stockcharts.com with the $GTX symbol. The world awaits more Donnie comments on the Iran War debacle. Trumpski should have listened to Edwin. War. Good God y'all.

6/21/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/16/26; 9:00 AM EST =
6/14/26; 7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 3:59 PM EST = +39; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 3:39 PM EST = +23; signal line is +28
6/12/26; 2:37 PM EST = +39; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 11:01 AM EST = +23; signal line is +26
6/12/26; 10:42 AM EST = +37; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 10:09 AM EST = +53; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 10:00 AM EST = +37; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
6/11/26; 1:38 PM EST = +37; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the stock market turmoil today. King Donnie Chumpski, of course after the told his family and friends to go long, proclaimed that Iran has agreed to a deal. Volatility collapses and stocks launch higher like a rocket. The day takes on a festive atmosphere after Donnie intervened to pump equities higher at 1:30 PM EST.

Volatility is the main driver of stock market direction this week so far. The VIX remained above the critical 20.76 line in the sand so the bears were smiling. Then, when Trumpski proclaimed that Iran agreed to a deal, the VIX collapses to a 19 handle. Comically, an hour after Donnie's decree, both Iran and Israel say deal? What Deal? Who? Lebanon, too. Donnie was blowing some smoke but people do not care since they are too busy buying stocks sending the indexes into the stratosphere recovering all of yesterday's losses then some.

Keybot the Quant is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 12 points above the signal line but the internal parameters are not yet fully latched. The robot will likely flip long tomorrow if the SPX moves above 7413 so watch to see if the S&P futures are up +19 points overnight.

Bears need VIX above 20.76 to maintain control of the stock market. Bears will be helped by higher volatility and lower banks and commodities.

Bulls need SPX above 7413 to open the door to higher prices. Bulls will also be helped if utilities rally. A signal line at 25 is serving as a baseline. In the year 2525, if man is still alive, if woman can survive.... Zager & Evans. 

6/14/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/12/26; 10:00 AM EST =
6/11/26; 1:38 PM EST = +37; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
6/11/26; 8:24 AM EST = +23; signal line is +25
6/11/26; 8:03 AM EST = +37; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
6/11/26; 7:01 AM EST = +23; signal line is +24
6/11/26; 4:07 AM EST = +37; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 13 points above the signal line. Volatility is running the show. The VIX 20.77 line in the sand gave way minutes ago. Volatility controls stock market direction (inversely). The VIX is at 20.62. Bears need the VIX back above 20.77 or they will fold like your cheap suit.

Banks and retail stocks are in play and in the bull camp helping stocks move higher. Bears need XLF below 51.52 if they want to create selling pressure.

Utilities remain in the mix. Bulls need UTIL, or DJU, above 1115 and there will be a big rally higher in equities.

Copper and commodities are also in the mix. Copper has been pulling back after its orgy. A drop of -0.7% in copper futures will cause trouble for stocks and the futures are down -0.5% as this is typed.

What does all the mumbo jumbo mean? Bears need VIX above 20.77 pronto or they will lose the narrative. Bears need a -0.7% drop in copper futures to create stock market weakness and XLF below 51.52 will push everything over the hill into the trash dump.

Bulls need the SPX to recover yesterday's losses to flip the model long a formidable task. Bulls need to keep the VIX below 20.77 since that will keep the bears in a head lock and allow for a day or two of adjustment to where they can take control. Bulls need UTIL above 1115 that will open the door to upside joy.

That is a lot of moving parts each wanting a say in where the stock market is headed; volatility, copper, banks, retail stocks, commodities and utilities. Speaking of moving parts, Tina Turner sure had a lot of them. She was an excellent performer. John Fogerty of CCR wrote Proud Mary but Tina owned it.

6/14/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/12/26; 10:00 AM EST =
6/11/26; 4:07 AM EST = 37; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
6/10/26; 10:51 AM EST = 23; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
6/10/26; 9:48 AM EST = 37; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
6/10/26; 4:50 AM EST = 23; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
6/9/26; 1:41 PM EST = 37; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
6/9/26; 12:07 PM EST = 23; signal line is +24
6/8/26; 9:52 AM EST = 37; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
6/8/26; 3:06 AM EST = 21; signal line is +25
6/7/26; 7:00 PM EST = +7; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Friday was a mini Black Friday with the robot cruising along on the short side with the algo number 18 points below the signal line.

During the last hour of trading, volatility gave up the ship confirming the downside pain. There are many moving parts and undercurrents in the stock market currently.

Utilities, retail stocks and volatility are in the bear camp creating the Friday swoon. Banks, copper and commodities are in the bull camp trying to hold back the bears from driving stocks far lower. 

Volatility will trade overnight and play at the VIX 20.52 line in the sand. Price is at 21.51 creating stock market negativity. Bears need the VIX to move higher. Bulls desperately need the VIX below 20.52 or they got buptkis and face nothing but pain and misery going forward.

Bulls also need UTIL above 1113.84 starting at 1110. Volatility and utes will tell you if the bulls have any hope going forward. If stocks rally and the dip-buyers are throwing cash at the market, but the VIX remains above 20.52, stocks will reverse and fall apart again.

Bears need banks and copper to drop about -1.7% each to create a big downside push and begin a rout. Bears need XLF below 51.43 and CPER below 37.38 to create market mayhem.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. Bulls are cheering for lower volatility and stronger utes while bears are cheering for weaker banks and copper to begin serious downside damage. Keep an ear to the wires this afternoon to see if King Donnie tries to pump the S&P futures that begin trading at 6 PM EST. Bring in the cheerleaders for Smells Like Teen Spirit.

6/14/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/12/26; 10:00 AM EST =
6/7/26; 7:00 PM EST = +7; signal line is +25
6/5/26; 3:59 PM EST = +7; signal line is +27
6/5/26; 3:50 PM EST = +21; signal line is +28
6/5/26; 3:21 PM EST = +7; signal line is +29
6/5/26; 3:09 PM EST = +21; signal line is +30
6/5/26; 2:03 PM EST = +37; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
6/5/26; 10:56 AM EST = +21; signal line is +31

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market turmoil continues. Retail stocks fail back into the bear camp creating market weakness. Banks remain elevated helping stocks remain buoyant. Utilities keep hanging around the critical UTIL 1113.90 line in the sand on the bear side. Stocks will recover if UTIL moves above 1114.

Stocks will collapse if XLF loses 51.37 but price remains above 52 having a good ole time.

The bulls can stabilize the stock market and help stocks recover if XRT recovers back above 83.33.

Thus, retail stocks, utes and banks are running the show. Bulls need stronger retail stocks and utilities while bears need weaker banks. Traders watch the drop as Sports Team sings The Drop. Let it drop. Maybe a Black Friday?

6/7/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/5/26; 10:56 AM EST = +21; signal line is +31
6/5/26; 9:00 AM EST = +37; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
6/4/26; 9:36 AM EST = +37; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the chop suey baby games continue. The quant wants to flip long again with the algo number 4 points above the signal line, out of the gate this morning, but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move, so the robot remains short. If the SPX moves above 7598 tomorrow, starting at 7584, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Thus, the imminent turn notation is in the title line again. Watch the S&P futures to see if 14 points are there.

The bulls had an easy time to keep the stock market afloat today with the US Monthly Jobs Report on deck in the morning. Traders are content to hold tight and wait for the BLS numbers at 8:30 AM EST.

The bulls came to play today, knowing that stocks were about to slip away. They pumped banks, retail stocks and utilities like madmen trying to keep the bull party going. Utilities and retail stocks fell on their sword after the big opening spikes higher. Banks, however, remained in orgy mode all day long gaining almost +3%.

The robot is tracking the SPX 7598, XRT 83.33, XLF 51.37, and UTIL 1114 lines in the sand. Retail stocks and banks are in the bull camp creating upside in equities while utes are in the bear camp creating downside for stocks.

Bulls need SPX above 7598 to flip the quant long and verify the bull party into the weekend. If XRT loses 83.33, it is only 20 cents away, all bets are off and the quant will likely not flip long.

Bears must prevent SPX 7598 from printing and pull XRT below 83.33, and then XLF below 51.37. This activity would create mayhem in the stock market.

Bulls stopped UTIL at 1100 overnight tonight within striking distance of the critical 1114 tomorrow. It is a battle royale. Lorde sings Royals. The bulls must push UTIL above 1114 asap or face grave consequences ahead. Watch it out of the gate in the morning. If you see stocks up and utilities jump higher and over the 1114, it will be a huge bull orgy into the weekend.

Hopefully, all that is clearer than mud albeit only slightly. Bulls need a stronger SPX to flip the quant long and stronger utilities will create euphoric bull joy.

Bears need to keep utes below 1114 and pull retail stocks lower. That will create a path to pain and misery for stocks. There was only one Big Iz.

6/7/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/5/26; 9:00 AM EST =
6/4/26; 9:36 AM EST = +37; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
6/3/26; 3:59 PM EST = +21; signal line is +33