STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the multi-month sideways slop continues. The bulls make substantive advances to keep stocks buoyant. Volatility dropped, copper rallied, and during the final minutes on Friday, the semiconductors were jammed higher. The banks are the skunk at the garden party. Utilities are lying in a grave.

The robot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 11 points above the signal line but the internal parameters do not fully latch to permit the move. Same-o story for the last few weeks. Maybe Monday will tell a different tale? If the SPX moves above 7657 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Watch the S&P futures overnight to see if the bulls can find +7 points of upside. The bears must drag chips lower out of the gate to stop the bulls.

Keeping it simple, stock market direction boils down to banks versus chips. The bears need to pull SOX below 11906 pronto to remain in control of the stock market.

The bulls need SPX above 7657 to likely flip the quant long and XLF above 56.79 will create positive market joy.

It is all about the chips first thing Monday morning. Ed Sheeran the ginger idiot got caught up in musician activism talking about global matters that he says he did not want to talk about. He should have just walked out on stage last evening and played his music. He did not owe anyone any explanation for the big mess with Macklemore that only had one hit. Thrift Shop was another popular song and video. 'What, what, what, what', what a bunch of idiots. Perfect was likely Ed Sheeran's peak years ago; at the time he said it was the best song that he ever wrote. He was likely right. The ladies love to be serenaded.

9/27/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/25/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/20/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7
9/18/26; 3:59 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7
9/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = -12; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Warsh and oil drama continue. Oil was down today so stocks were up. Two parameters, volatility and copper, jump back into the bull camp creating market joy. Banks and chips remain in the bear camp creating negativity.

The bears are in charge with the algo number 6 points below the signal line that is not much. The stock market game is vol and copper versus banks and chips.

The bears need to pull CPER back below 39.28 and/or push the VIX above 16.57.  Volatility is key because, going forward, bulls are at an advantage sub VIX 16.57 while bears are throwing confetti above VIX 16.57.

The bulls need to keep vol and copper bullish while also pushing XLF above 56.79 and/or SOX above 11890. Either one would be good enough to position the quant to go long, and if the SPX then ran above 7647 going higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Warsh hikes by a quarter point as expected. Oil continues to send stocks in the opposite direction. You can watch XLF and SMH in the pre-market to see how banks and chips are trading. Who will win the race? East Bound and Down a Jerry Reed song from Smokey and the Bandit. Everyone saw this highly popular movie in the late 1970's early 1980's. The "Bandit" (Burt) liked Sally's shaky puddin'.

9/20/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = -12; signal line is -6
9/17/26; 9:00 AM EST = -28; signal line is -6
9/17/26; 3:06 AM EST = -28; signal line is -4
9/15/26; 10:07 AM EST = -42; signal line is -3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as stocks stutter sideways waiting for Pope Warsh to bring the tablets down from On High tomorrow and tell international traders how to trade. A Fed rate hike is baked in so any deviation from this outcome would create drama. The hike may create drama depending on if it is considered to be one and done (stock market can probably live with this) or if it is the start of a rate hike cycle (multiple hikes in a row, at each meeting; bad for stocks).

Every hike over last few decades has started a rate hike cycle so the one hike and done is not as common an outcome. Warsh will likely hike because of all his bravado talk about tackling inflation. He is looking forward to the free buffet although he got a jelly stain on his necktie at the last meeting.

Banks, copper and volatility take the pipe and yet the stock market remains standing on its pale thin legs. Go figure. The stock market would have been expected to flush lower with these three parameters in the bear camp but the market oddities continue. Oil is moving markets. Oil up stocks down and oil down stocks up. The stock market may have not gone over the waterfall yet because Wizard Warsh is on tap. The chairman will appear tomorrow donning tap shoes, a top hat and cane, along with mirrors and a smoke machine.

The bears are in charge of the stock market with the algo number 39 points below the signal line but you would not know it with equities refusing to fall off their lofty perch. Bulls are going to need all three of the metrics to turn bullish to wrestle the ball back.

Bulls need XLF above 56.88, CPER above 39.21 and/or VIX below 16.59. All three are bearish opening the gates to Hell but the bulls are holding on by their fingernails trying not to fall into the abyss. Any 1 of the 3 turning bullish will immediately stop the stock market selloff. 2 of 3 turning bullish will create a substantive rally in equities and if all 3 turn bullish, the quant will be in position to go long again.

It sounds like a tall order for bulls but all the prices are within striking distance of crossing the lines in the sand. With the Fed on tap, anything may happen. Watch volatility and copper futures overnight to get a heads-up on where things are headed for hump day but of course, everyone will be waiting for Warsh and his rate hike. He better not show up empty-handed to a stock market expecting a hike With Arms Wide Open. 

9/20/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/17/26; 9:00 AM EST =
9/15/26; 10:07 AM EST = -42; signal line is -3
9/14/26; 2:48 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1
9/14/26; 1:54 PM EST = -42; signal line is +1
9/14/26; 3:06 AM EST = -26; signal line is +2
9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST = -12; signal line is +3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market drama continues. Oil is the king nowadays. As oil goes, stocks go the opposite. The Arab states are supposed to get together tomorrow to resolve the Strait of Hormuz problem. Sure they are. That news sent oil prices down so Friday stocks were up. Late day, the Saudi pipeline that was handling some of the millions of barrels of oil that could not transverse the strait was shut down. Oil prices went back up so stocks became soggy late day. Oil is the king.

Friday was a surprise since the metrics impacting stock market direction were on the cusp of turning bullish that would finally flip the model long. Nope. The Fed held its jackboot on the throat of volatility before the Friday open allowing stocks to elevate. That was the only parameter that flipped back into the bull camp and it was not enough to create a strong rally.

The bears remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 15 points below the signal line that is nothing to write home about. The bulls tried to fight back on Friday. For the week ahead, it is a game of chips and copper versus banks and volatility.

Banks and volatility are in the bull camp not allowing stocks to sell off to any great extent. Bears need XLF below 56.78 and/or VIX above 16.66. Either one turning bearish will lock-in negativity for stocks and both turning bearish will flush equities down the toilet.

Chips and copper are in the bear camp creating negativity in markets. All four parameters are dancing on the head of a pin so good luck for the path ahead. You have to wait and see what flinches first. Bulls need SOX above 11910 and/or CPER above 39.29. If one of the two flip bullish, and the SPX rallies above 7677, it is likely that Keybot the Quant will flip long.

That is the battle. Nothing else matters. Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Thursday morning. All You Ever Do Is Bring Me Down. Raul died at 60 years young. If this song does not get you moving, you have no life in you. The Mavericks always played it last to end the shows sending fans home in a great and happy mood. It is only a two-chord song E and A so easy to play and great for the solos to shine. Come on! 2, 3, 4, .......

9/20/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/17/26; 9:00 AM EST =
9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST = -12; signal line is +3
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST = -12; signal line is +3
9/11/26; 8:46 AM EST = -12; signal line is +4
9/10/26; 3:37 PM EST = -26; signal line is +4

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market antics continue. Today was a bigtime inflection point day. The indexes do not reflect the underlying damage. The SPX should have dumped a hundo points today at least, but only lost a piddly 45 points. The hyped up inflation data is on tap at 8:30 AM EST and everyone believes they can read these tea leaves and predict the Federal Reserve's rate decision on 9/16/26 only 4 trading days away. Thus, traders decided to hold their powder until tomorrow morning.

However, the bear slap was hard today. The bulls must of had a Communication Breakdown. Led Zeppelin came out on stage and blew those folks away as they wondered what is happening to music. They were so shocked they did not know how to react. Welcome to the 70's. John Bonham was finishing his beer before running out on stage. Everyone had long hair back then as the establishment lost control of this new wild rock and roll party generation. Hey girl, I have something you want to love. I'm having a nervous breakdown, I'm going insane.

The bears jammed volatility higher before the cash open so you knew they had the upper hand. At the open, the chips collapsed. Then copper, completely out of the blue, folds like your cheap suit. The cherry on top was the financials failing. Four major metrics taking the pipe should have pushed stocks off a cliff. It looks like it is all riding on the inflation numbers.

The banks recover late day. Thus, the XLF 56.78 line in the sand is very important. Price starts at 56.87 only pennies from failing again and causing stock market negativity. Check it in the pre-market to see what the story is for the day ahead.

Bulls need stronger banks, chips, copper and lower volatility to fight back. The bears are in control with the algo number 30 points below the signal line and it was a 47-point spread in the afternoon.

At 8:30 AM EST, Irina Inflation will shake her money maker and tell traders how to trade. Ramblin' Man. Dickey owns that song. Music has more joy, fun and participation without the garbage smartphones around. 

9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/10/26; 3:37 PM EST = -26; signal line is +4
9/10/26; 2:15 PM EST = -42; signal line is +5
9/10/26; 10:35 AM EST = -26; signal line is +7
9/10/26; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is +9
9/10/26; 7:24 AM EST = +6; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama continues. It is another day of semiconductors in the limelight.  Turn the Page. Out there in the spotlight, you're a million miles away. The swanky sax is a nice touch. Today's semiconductor battle made yesterday's action look like a piker. The quant spits out 11 numbers today and the bulls jam the chips higher in the last minute of trading to rig the win.

The robot wants to go long. What else is new? It is an odd stretch of time with stocks going up but the quant remains short. Something has to give perhaps tomorrow with the new moon. If the SPX moves above 7661 heading higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Stock market direction is controlled by chips, banks and volatility currently. All three are in the bull camp trying to take the ball away from the bears.

The bears immediately need SOX below 11922, XLF below 56.77 and/or VIX above 16.66. Trip six's. All three are in striking distance of falling apart. The bears need at least 1 of the 3 to turn bearish to provide breathing room again for negativity. 2 of the 3 turning negative will create noticeable downside in stocks. If all 3 turn bearish, the rout is on, and stocks will drop like rocks into the abyss of Hell.

Thus, bulls need SPX above 7661 and they will be in fantastic shape probably flipping the quant long. Bears need weaker chips and banks, and higher volatility, to create carnage. One of the 4 will flinch tomorrow and tell you path forward. It's a marvelous night for a Moondance with Van.

9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 3:35 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 3:21 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 2:56 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 1:50 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 1:42 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 12:40 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 12:14 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 11:53 AM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/9/26; 11:15 AM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/9/26; 9:58 AM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 2:54 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the oddball price action continues. Chips roar to life and dance around the trading floor like the flighty girl at a high school dance. Everybody wants to influence the chips, including the bull and bear camps, so the battle was on yesterday and may continue today. The algo spits out six numbers yesterday reflecting the semiconductor bull/bear battle.

Bulls need SOX above 11940 an easy lift if they ate their spinach and show up to play. If SOX rallies higher above 11940, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX ventures above 7718, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Bulls also need UTIL, or DJU, above 1110 with price at 1093. The failure in utes for a few weeks running is a bad omen for the stock market but who knows if the tried and true rules of the past still hold?

Bears are in control with the algo number 6 points below the signal line but that is nothing to write home about. Copper leaps higher yesterday the orgy in the red metal is unstoppable. Traders are buying this other yellow metal with both fists. Bears need weaker copper if they want to pull stocks lower.

Bears need weaker banks and for XLF to drop below 56.62. You will see the stock market notably weaken if this occurs. Bears need VIX above 16.64 to create carnage. A higher VIX will signal that pain and misery is the path ahead for stocks. Bears got nothing if the VIX remains sub 16.64.

Thus, stock market direction is a battle of bearish utes and chips versus bullish banks and volatility. One of the four will flinch and tell you the direction forward.

The cash open is 3-1/2 hours away for hump day, and the VIX is at 16-ish. SMH (chips) is trading lower in the pre-market. Utilities flat. XLF is a hair negative in early trading. It is Wednesday, so some Goo Goo Muck, the old Cramps tune, that is now new again, is in order. Gen Z'ers have a lot in common with the cool folks from the late 1960's, 70's, and early 80's; the two generations are in sync.

9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/8/26; 2:54 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/8/26; 2:12 PM EST = +20; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 2:03 PM EST = +4; signal line is +10
9/8/26; 1:07 PM EST = +20; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
9/8/26; 12:36 PM EST = +4; signal line is +11
9/8/26; 10:58 AM EST = +20; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
9/6/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +12

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the sideways party continues. Stocks will have to choose one way or the other at some point forward. US markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The Fed rate decision is 9/16/26 only 7 trading days away. Last Friday's US Monthly Jobs Report shows that the labor recovery is now 3 months along and counting. It raises the expectation for a rate hike so stocks were soggy to end the week.

The pieces on the battlefield remain about the same. Utes, chips and retail stocks are in the bear camp trying to create negativity. Copper, volatility and banks are in the bull camp trying to keep stocks elevated.

Bears are in control, although you would not know it because traders and investors are tripping over each other to buy stocks, with the algo number 8 points below the signal line. Things can change quickly.

Bears need CPER below 39.19, VIX above 16.82 and/or XLF below 56.60. Any 1 of the 3 turning bearish will prove that down is the path forward for the stock market. 2 of 3 is worse for the stock market and if all 3 turn bearish, carnage begins.

Bulls can steer the ship higher if they push UTIL above 1109.57, SOX above 11960 and/or XRT above 87.83. The Thursday orgy rally into the holiday weekend pushed the socks and retail stocks strongly higher so they are within striking distance to create a bull party.

Boiling it down, the bears need weaker copper to stick a dagger in stocks. Watch copper futures going into Tuesday morning when US stocks reopen for trading. Bears need a -1.9% drop, call it -2%, to create enough sogginess in the red metal where it will begin destroying stocks.

Bulls simply need higher chips and retail stocks and that may happen simply by Emperor Jensen proclaiming that the Rubin chip is the best thing since a Reuben sandwich. Or Walmart boasting about great Labor Day sales revenue and foot traffic. Thus, it is copper versus semiconductors and retail stocks. One of these three will flinch and that will tell you the path forward for the US stock market.

If SOX regains 11960 or XRT regains 87.83, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be on the table, and if the SPX runs higher above 7750, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

The bear's hopes are riding on weaker copper, and perhaps higher volatility since oil tankers are shot-up in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, while the bull's hopes are riding on stronger chips and retail stocks. Will the wealthy class keep on spending money to keep the party going? Money for Nothing. Mark Knopfler is one of the best guitarists ever but he never had real big acclaim in part due to using the f-word in this song. It alienated lots of folks in the music and entertainment industry so that hurts you if that is the business you are in.

9/13/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/11/26; 10:00 AM EST =
9/6/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +12
9/4/26; 9:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +12
9/2/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +13
9/1/26; 2:41 PM EST = -12; signal line is +14
8/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +4; signal line is +15
8/30/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama continues. Three key metrics, utes, chips and retail stocks, remain in the bear camp so you knew the big rally early Friday would fade, and it did. The bears remain in control of the stock market, although you would not know that by the price action, with the algo number 12 points below the signal line.

King Warsh put more meat on the bone providing a few parameters that folks can watch to read the Fed tea leaves. It was a nothing burger as far as price action goes with markets continuing to stumble along after the Warsh speech. The ceremonial walk to the fence occurs as usual. Warsh's two colleagues are BOE Governor Bailey and BOC Governor Macklem. All three idiots walk in the pouring down rain too stupid to use an umbrella; or too vain, and these folks are supposed to be smart running powerful central banks. Warsh and Bailey were the only two jackasses wearing a suit and tie in the wilds of Wyoming where boots, jeans, flannel shirts and cowboy hats are standard fare. Everything is for show nowadays. At the fence, Macklem pointed off in the distance as if to say, "Canada is beyond those mountains." The next Fed meeting is 9/15/26 and 9/16/26 with the rate decision and press conference on 9/16/26 only 13 trading days away.

UTIL drops to 1078 so the utilities are coughing up blood in the corner. No one notices since they are too busy buying stocks. Bulls need UTIL above 1125 and then above 1132 to continue a big rally for the stock market.

SOX 12050 and XRT 87.93 are the lines in the sand for chips and retail stocks, respectively. The chips are down, literally and figuratively.

Banks, copper and volatility remain in the bull camp. This is why bears cannot make any headway lower. Bears got nothing unless the VIX moves above 16.98 heading higher. XLF 56.35 and CPER 39.08 are lines in the sand and bears would need about a 2% or 3% drop in banks and copper to create negativity going forward.

Thus, to start the new week of trading, it is likely a game of retail stocks versus banks and copper. Bulls need XRT above 87.93 to place the model in position to go long and if the SPX runs above 7771, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. If you are bullish, you want to see retail stocks strong and catching a bid.

Bears need XLF below 56.35 and/or CPER below 39.08 to create selling pressure. Of course, if the VIX pops above 17, it is lights out for stocks. The whole mess is a coin-flip but retail stocks, banks and copper will likely tell you the story forward.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Monday evening for the EOM and the other on Friday morning before the cash open. Be very afraid about the failure in utilities because when utes lead the broad stock market lower, very bad things happen. The Happening with Diana and the girls.

9/6/26; 7:00 PM EST =
9/4/26; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +16
8/28/26; 10:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +17
8/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +17

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short during this period of odd price action. The bears are in charge with the algo number 13 points below the signal line but the bulls do not notice because they are too busy buying stocks. The quant takes the pipe out of the gate this morning--and the SPX rallies 55 points. Huh? Weird stuff.

Wizard Warsh will bring the tablets down from On High tomorrow morning, after visiting the monks at the peaks of the Wyoming mountains, and tell traders and investors how to trade. The world's central bankers are in Jackson Hole discussing new ways to print money. It will be interesting if Warsh does the traditional slow walk for the cameras with two colleagues. The chairman typically walks out to the fence, and then points into the distance as if they are discussing something about nature, and then turn around and walk back. Warsh is on stage at 10 AM EST one-half hour after the cash open and that would be 8 AM first thing in the morning out at Jackson Hole with 2 hours time difference. Warsh will probably have a jelly stain on his necktie from the free buffet. The Warsh drama will be front and center but probably end up as a nothing burger.

The utilities failed over the last few days and you should be very afraid since that places a crash scenario for the stock market on the table in the days and weeks ahead. Utes leading the broad stock market lower is a very bad thing. It was a huge surprise today that UTIL, or DJU, collapsed to 1086 sinking further into the bear ooze. The UTIL 1093 line in the sand this week is worthless after tomorrow and replaced with 1132.36 a far harder, and higher, goal for the bulls to meet for all of next week. For tomorrow, the 1093 is still in play but watch to see where UTIL closes for the week. For next week, UTIL 1125 and 1132 will be the two lines in the sand. Bulls cannot make new highs in the stock market unless both of these ute parameters turn positive next week and price now sits at 1086.

Chips and retail stocks are weak with SOX below 12065 and XRT below 87.97 that should create stock market negativity. Watch these two metrics closely tomorrow. Bears need higher volatility, and VIX above 17 but it now has a 14 handle. Bears also need weaker copper, commodities and banks.

Simply watch UTIL 1093, SOX 12065 and XRT 87.97 tomorrow. All three are in the bear camp creating stock market negativity although it does not appear that way with everyone buying stocks. If any 1 of the 3 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play and if the SPX then bumps above 7741 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

If the bears can keep all 3 metrics bearish tomorrow, that would be a win for the negative side. Especially utilities. If UTIL continues lower, gird your loins, because that means a Bad Moon's Rising.

Keybot the Quant prints a prescheduled number tomorrow shortly after the opening bell. Utes, chips and retail stocks are all that matter.

8/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/28/26; 10:00 AM EST =
8/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +17
8/26/26; 9:39 AM EST = +36; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains short
8/26/26; 9:38 AM EST = +20; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains short
8/25/26; 3:56 PM EST = +4; signal line is +18
8/25/26; 2:42 PM EST = +20; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short
8/25/26; 2:26 PM EST = +4; signal line is +20
8/25/26; 2:14 PM EST = +20; signal line is +21
8/25/26; 10:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +21
8/25/26; 9:39 AM EST = +4; signal line is +22
8/24/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +23
8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +23

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market remains elevated. Go figure. Utilities, chips and retail stocks are in the bear camp creating market negativity while banks, copper and volatility are in the bull camp partying like its 1999 a la Prince. The stock market is erratic and unstable in this crazy chaos.

The bears are in charge with the algo number 19 points below the signal line but you would not know it with the bulls partying everyday buying stocks with both fists. Bears need XLF below 56.00, CPER below 38.90, and/or VIX above 17.18. Any 1 of the 3 turning negative may be enough to finally send stocks south. Carnage occurs in the stock market if all 3 turn bearish.

The bulls need UTIL above 1093, SOX above 12125, and/or XRT above 88.09 to guarantee a path higher for stocks. The bulls likely need 2 of the 3 to turn bullish to place the quant in position to go long. Write all 6 numbers on a post-it note and stick it on your forehead.

Utilities took the pipe on Friday but no one noticed since they were too busy buying stocks. UTIL, or DJU, collapses to 1075. That will get your attention. The bulls desperately need UTIL back above 1093 pronto or there will be Hell to pay going forward. When utilities lead the broad market lower, that spells major trouble and places a potential crash scenario on the table over the coming weeks. Watch utes closely this week.

Donnie Chump will likely comment on the Iran War and perhaps the failed Canada trade talks this afternoon to manipulate the futures market that opens at 6 PM EST. Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other Friday morning. The month of August ends (EOM) on the following Monday. There is likely more oddball price action ahead this week. It is Sunday morning and people are losing the faith. Losing My Religion. Great electric mandolin action by Peter Buck.

8/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/28/26; 10:00 AM EST =
8/25/26; 10:00 AM EST =
8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +23
8/20/26; 12:07 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama continues. It is odd times with odd price action. The bears are in control with the algo number 21 points below the signal line but no one told the bulls that keep rallying stocks.

Watch utes, chips and retail stocks, specifically, UTIL 1112.15, UTIL 1092.72, SOX 12130 and XRT 88.05, respectively. UTIL is at 1096 below 1112.15 creating negativity in the stock market. This number is meaningless at 4 PM EST today and replaced with 1092.72 for all of next week. If price finishes above 1093 today, that is a feather in the bulls cap come Monday. If, however, as price slips away today, UTIL closes below 1093, that sets up for bigtime negativity in the stock market next week. If you have a lot of longs, you should gird your loins and consider lightening up into the weekend if you see utes taking the pipe. One or the other outcomes will occur this afternoon.

Chips and retail stocks are creating negativity so bulls need prices above those lines in the sand. If so, the fix is in and the stock market is fine. If UTIL 1093 is lost today, that means big trouble, and if the VIX pops above 17.22, it is over for the stock market. For now, it is a coin-flip until one of the above metrics flinch. 

At about 10 AM EST, UTIL is 1099, SOX is 11794 and XRT is 87.38. The status is quo, so far. Jane Says she does not know what to do. Dig the steel drum sound.

8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/26; 12:07 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 11:05 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 10:30 AM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 9:51 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +26
8/19/26; 10:34 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/19/26; 10:16 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
8/19/26; 10:09 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/19/26; 9:40 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
8/19/26; 9:39 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/18/26; 2:24 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the circus atmosphere continues. Utilities, chips and retail stocks are running the show and all three are in the bear camp creating the negativity in today's tape.

Bears need weaker copper and higher volatility to confirm the path to carnage. Bulls need stronger utes, chips and retail stocks. More retail stock yearnings are on tap this week.

The bears are in charge, although you would not know it since the stock market has rallied higher, with the algo number 21 points below the signal line. Things can change quickly as evidenced by today's action with the quant spitting out six numbers.

UTIL 1112.15, SOX 12147, XRT 88.10, CPER 38.83 and VIX 17.22 are the bull/bear lines in the sand you can watch the rest of the week. Utes, semi's and  retail stocks are bearish creating negativity in the stock market while copper and volatility remain in the bull camp telling everyone the selling is no biggie.

Bears need CPER below 38.83 and/or VIX above 17.22 to start slashing deeply creating big wounds. If VIX pops above 17.22, it is over for the bulls. Stocks will fall apart.

Bulls need UTIL, or DJU, above 1112.15, and/or SOX above 12147 and/or XRT above 88.10. If retail earnings are beats, you will know the fix is in and bulls will stage a comeback starting with a rally in XRT. Overnight chip hype will send the semiconductors higher that will create higher stocks. 

The stage is set. Five parameters. Simply gauge stock market direction by the interplay of these five metrics. Pay attention to copper and volatility. If these are lost to the bear camp, the drop in stocks may be quite dramatic and the slashing will begin in earnest. The First Cut Is the Deepest. Sheryl is singing a Cat Stevens tune he wrote back in the 60's. He calls himself Yusuf nowadays. Sheryl Crow has been hanging out in Nashville the last couple decades. She has a scar on her head from early days playing in a routy biker bar when someone threw a beer bottle and it hit her in the face. That's a rough crowd. Sometimes you will see chicken wire fence covering the entire space in front of a stage to stop the projectiles. Her parents were musicians and music teachers; she plays a couple dozen instruments.

8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/26; 2:24 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/18/26; 12:56 PM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/18/26; 10:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
8/18/26; 9:49 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/18/26; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
8/18/26; 9:00 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/17/26; 11:18 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/17/26; 10:10 AM EST = +36; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
8/17/26; 9:49 AM EST = +20; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading is off and stumbling. UTIL fell below 1112 maintaining negativity for stocks. A few minutes ago, XRT fell below the 88.12 line in the sand ushering in negativity. Those control the stock market. Watch UTIL 1112 and XRT 88.12.

Bears need weaker chips and higher volatility if they want to create downside carnage. Bulls will squash the bears again and place the model in position to go long by bringing XRT back above 88.12. UTIL is at 1105 and XRT is at 88.04. It is a game of pennies and dollars. Life can be a day late and a dollar short. Story of My Life.

8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/26; 9:00 AM EST =
8/17/26; 9:49 AM EST = +20; signal line is +29
8/16/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. The SPX price, utilities, retail stocks and chips are all that matter.

If the SPX moves above 7810, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That represents a 24-point gain so watch this evening and overnight to see if the S&P futures are up +24 points. As usual, bulls do not want a big gap-up opening for the SPX since that may delay the flip long.

The UTIL 1112.15 line in the sand for all of this week has been previously mentioned. The market makers parked UTIL at 1112.39 to end last week trying to set up a bullish week ahead. The bulls have it by 24 pennies and utilities will create more lift in the stock market if the numbers hold. If UTIL remains above 1112.15 and moving higher towards 1124, the bulls will be celebrating more new highs for stocks. Bears need UTIL back below 1112.15 pronto, preferable out of the gate, to stay in the game.

Bears need XRT below 88.01 and the retail yearnings on tap this week will be sending XRT to and fro. Bears need SOX below 12130 to create downside in stocks. Bears ultimately got nothing unless, or until, they push VIX above 17.63 and it currently has a 14-handle. Donnie Chump should provide some type of commentary or happy talk this afternoon to influence the futures that begin trading at 6 PM EST.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Tuesday morning. Bulls will likely flip the model long above SPX 7810 and receive more juice with UTIL above 1112. Bears will stop the bull orgy if they pull UTIL below 1112, XRT below 88.01 and/or SOX below 12130. Yesterday was party day so folks are waking up with headaches. Sunday Morning Coming Down. Kris Kristofferson wrote the tune but it was immediately adopted by Johnny Cash, Kris was always pitching songs to Johnny, and everyone always associated the song with the Man in Black. On a Sunday morning sidewalk, I'm wishing Lord that I was stoned, 'cause there's something in a Sunday, that makes a body feel alone.

8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/26; 9:00 AM EST =
8/16/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/14/26; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/11/26; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/11/26; 12:05 PM EST = +20; signal line is +30
8/11/26; 9:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
8/10/26; 3:57 PM EST = +20; signal line is +32

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short so the stock market drama continues. Bulls had it on a silver platter but they could not convert. The SOX pukes into the closing bell falling below the 12080 line in the sand creating negativity to end the day.

As semiconductors go, so goes the market. SOX begins tomorrow at 11994 so bulls need 86 points to prove that they still got game and can place the algo in position to go long. Bulls, and the stock market, are in trouble if the SOX continues sinking lower.

Utilities remain bearish creating negativity with UTIL under 1124 at 1088.

Volatility remains tame with a 15 handle and the bears need VIX above 17.68, a couple sticks higher, to create negativity. Bears have buptkis unless they can push VIX above 17.68.

Bears need GTX below 5270 but Trumpflation sends price to 5514 creating bullishness.

Bulls need stronger utes and semiconductors. Bears need higher volatility and weaker commodities. Watch SOX because bulls and bears are battling while balancing on a tightrope; one will win and one will lose. Don't Stop Believin'. Some'll win, some will lose, some are born to sing the blues. Journey had quite a journey. Decades ago, Steve Perry the front man, did not want to sing anymore so the band was toast. What will they do? Then someone said you should check out this Filipino dude on YouTube he sings all the Journey songs. They thought it was a joke but the band was surprised at how good a singer Arnel Pineda was so they called him in for an audition. The rest is history. Arnel deserves to be on stage. He is a fantastic talent and adds a new energy to the band and Journey remains popular to this day. Neil Schon is a helluva guitarist. Watch the chips.

8/16/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/14/26; 10:00 AM EST =
8/10/26; 3:57 PM EST = +20; signal line is +32
8/9/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot is champing at the bit to go long, finally? It has been a strange week of trading with a big orgy rally in stocks brought about by King Donnie's proclamation last week that military action would not continue in Iran and a deal on the Strait of Hormuz was imminent. Trumpski kept hyping the Iran War talk on Monday saying the strait may open tomorrow. That did not happen and then Secretary Bessent proclaimed more happy talk so stocks hit the afterburners with a rocket launch rally, then sideways chop the last 3 days as traders await more happy talk. What next?

The Iran War, specifically the Strait of Hormuz, is driving oil prices that are driving stock prices so it is all a crap-shoot. It depends on what side of the bed King Donnie rises on today and tomorrow.

The turn to the long side may be imminent with the algo number 4 points above the signal line. If the SPX rallies 5 or 6 points, to push above 7763, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Thus, the bulls need is a rise of +6 in the futures that will begin trading at 6 PM EST. As usual, a gap-up big move will not be helpful for the bulls; it would be much better if price slowly progressed higher.

Bears must push back and prevent SPX 7763 with all their might, otherwise they will fold like your cheap Men's Warehouse suit. At the same time, bears need weaker chips and commodities, and a higher VIX.

Interestingly, even if the bulls gain control the only way another leg up occurs with stocks is if utilities rally. Watch utes very closely this week they will tell you a lot. UTIL begins the week at 1099 and bulls need price above 1124.50 to receive energy for another solid move higher in the stock market. Bulls will not make much headway higher, if any, if they cannot push utilities higher.

Bulls win with the SPX above 7763 and then drive stocks higher with stronger utes. Bears will continue to hold the bulls at bay if they prevent SPX 7763 and drive semiconductors and commodities lower and volatility higher. It should be another interesting week. We need Blues Traveler to join us as we travel these choppy waters. 

8/16/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/14/26; 10:00 AM EST =
8/9/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
8/7/26; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
8/6/26; 10:06 AM EST = +36; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
8/6/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +33
8/5/26; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is +34
8/5/26; 12:52 PM EST = +22; signal line is +35
8/5/26; 11:55 AM EST = +36; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/4/26; 11:16 AM EST = +22; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market rocket launches to the upside to all-time record highs. It is bazaar. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7758.21 and new all-time closing high at 7736.52 on 8/4/26 on Donnie hype.

In 18 years, the model has never displayed this type of behavior. The rally is purely news-driven with King Donnie Chump halting further military action in Iran on the weekend. Trumpski said the Strait of Hormuz may open yesterday. Then Bessent tag-teamed Trump promising an agreement by today. Oil plummets and stocks explode to the upside on the Iran War hype. Overnight, Trump says an agreement on the strait may occur today but Iran plays dumb and the Red Sea is now a problem. Iran is talking to Oman to make an agreement on the strait. What a mess. But the stock market is in party mode. If there was ever a time where everyone is partying with zero fear, it is now.

Utilities remain weak that is surprising since the rally would have been expected to lift all boats but it did not. Commodities weakened, mainly due to oil prices dropping, adding further bearishness to the stock market but the bulls managed to push chips high enough to help keep the bull rally going.

The coming days will tell if the model strayed off the reservation. Something has to give. The quant will have to capitulate and go long, or stocks will reverse to the downside. It likely completely depends on the so-called deal over the Strait of Hormuz that may be detailed today.  Welcome to the Twilight Zone.

The Iran War news is obviously the market driver along with utes, commodities and chips. The lines in the sand are UTIL 1124.50, GTX 5227 and SOX 12040. Utes and commodities create negativity while chips create positivity for stocks. The metrics do not matter when a big orange head is bloviating every 10 minutes to manipulate oil prices.

If UTIL or GTX turn bullish, either one will do, consider the imminent turn to the long side in play, and if the SPX moves above 7758, Keybot the Quant may flip long. The bears need to pull SOX below 12040 to maintain base negativity but, as highlighted above, the stock market is in Iran War hype mode and will live or die on the deal that King Donnie makes this week. It is weird stuff.

8/9/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/7/26; 9:00 AM EST =
8/4/26; 11:16 AM EST = +22; signal line is +35
8/4/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +35
8/3/26; 10:55 AM EST = +20; signal line is +36
8/3/26; 10:07 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +20; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market continues chopping along. Utilities gave up the ghost late Friday. King Donnie balked at continuing the strikes against Iran claiming that a new round of negotiations will begin today with the radical Islamist terrorists. Oil drops and futures rise. S&P futures are up +40 points.

Utes, vol and chips are impacting stock market direction. UTIL 1155, UTIL 1124, SOX 12.08K and VIX 19.17 are the lines in the sand. The VIX is at 15.98, a 15 handle, liking the bull camp. The chips are negative in the premarket so semi's like the bear camp.

UTIL begins the week at 1121 below both the 1124 and 1155 forecasting doom and gloom ahead. It sure does not look like that with futures happy, however, that occurs due to the King Donnie pump.

Bulls need UTIL above 1124 to place the quant in position to go long. Consider the imminent turn to the long side on tap if UTIL rises back above 1124. This is uber important to the stock market right now. Bad things will happen if utilities remain bearish.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning. Good morning Vietnam. Fortunate Son.

8/9/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/7/26; 9:00 AM EST =
8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +20; signal line is +36
7/31/26; 3:59 PM EST = +20; signal line is +36
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/30/26; 7:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls stage an orgy rally reversing the prior day's losses. The bull/bear battle continues as evidenced by the algo number and signal line both at +36. Keybot the Quant will likely flip long if the SPX can move above 7449 trending higher. As usual, a gap-up move would not be helpful for bulls and probably delay any potential move to the long side. This represents a +11 point move in the S&P futures overnight so that will give you a heads-up about tomorrow the last trading day of July.

The up and down circus is getting old but this is what erratic and unstable markets do. Utes and vol are running the show, and, as mentioned SPX 7449. UTIL 1158 and UTIL 1124 remain the two lines in the sand for tomorrow with price at 1133 causing both bullishness and bearishness in the stock market. One side or the other will likely win.

For all of next week, UTIL 1155.08 is the line in the sand replacing 1158.11 that will become meaningless, thus, watch 1155 tomorrow because that will provide insight into how stocks want to trade out of the gate on Monday.

VIX 19.17 is the line in the sand and price is at 17.09 getting jammed lower today so the bulls could win. Bears need 2 sticks higher to create selling pressure. Stocks may sell off but if the VIX remains below 19.17, the bears got buptkis and will fold like your cheap JC Penney suit. 

Let's assemble these hints that the quant provides. Bears are in control but need UTIL below 1124 and/or VIX above 19.17. The bears better eat their spinach, like Popeye, and show up with game tomorrow or they will fumble the ball back to the bulls.

The bulls need SPX above 7449 and the quant will likely flip long. If UTIL moves above 1158, this will likely be guaranteed. So bulls need the SPX to rally calmly higher gaining +11 points and more and also for utilities to rally.

Bears need to keep the SPX subdued and negative if possible while pulling utes lower and pushing volatility higher.

Keybot the Quant prints a prescheduled number tomorrow shortly after the cash open. Of course it does. May as well add drama on top of drama. S&P futures are up +12 this evening so the bulls have their chests puffed-out and know how to win the game tomorrow. Susan Tedeschi had to have her appendix yanked so a few gigs were cancelled. She does a great job with Little By Little. Eric Clapton is taking pictures in the background. Susan is married to Derek Trucks playing the slide next to her. His dad played the drums in the Allman Bros Band but unfortunately committed suicide. Get well soon Susan. 

8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/30/26; 7:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/29/26; 3:39 PM EST = +22; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 7403. The choppy whipsaw pig slop continues. The bears are in control of the stock market direction with the algo number 14 points below the signal line. Utilities and volatility are running the show. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

The negativity in utilities and spike higher in volatility usher-in yesterdays stock market weakness. UTIL 1158.11 and VIX 19.18 are the lines in the sand. VIX is at 19.40 in real-time starting to decorate its bear pad and create market weakness. UTIL 1124 is another line in the sand that may come into play if the price, now at 1141, continues lower.

Obviously, the bulls need UTIL above 1158 and/or VIX below 19.18. Either one would position the quant to flip long again in these chop suey markets. Bulls will be back in biz if both turn bullish.

Bears need UTIL below 1124 that will bring about a far lower stock market. Bears also need weaker copper but the red metal remains resilient and bullish propping up stocks. Copper futures are up over a couple percent this morning.

On the last trade that ran for a big two days, the quant program and the actual trading each lose a percent. Comically, it is death by a thousand cuts. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, that is the US stock market, is up +8%. The quant program is dead flat. Isn't that something. Seven months of drama and the computer program is exactly where it was at on January 1. Nowhere Man. The actual trading generated by the quant program is down -4% on the year thus far underperforming the benchmark by 12 percentage-points. The markets are trendless so the bulls and bears are chewed-up in the sideways meat grinder. Keybot the Quant exits DIA and enters PSQ.

Watch utilities and volatility for market direction. Also, keep a hairy eyeball on the banks and retail stocks. Copper appears to be in party mode again. 

8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/29/26; 3:39 PM EST = +22; signal line is +36
7/29/26; 2:06 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37
7/29/26; 10:05 AM EST = +22; signal line is +37; go short 7403 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +8.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.4%)
7/29/26; 10:01 AM EST = +38; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
7/29/26; 9:53 AM EST = +52; signal line is +37
7/28/26; 3:57 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
7/28/26; 10:06 AM EST = +52; signal line is +36
7/28/26; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +35
7/28/26; 9:48 AM EST = +38; signal line is +35
7/28/26; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35
7/27/26; 3:26 PM EST = +36; signal line is +35
7/27/26; 3:12 PM EST = +52; signal line is +36
7/27/26; 2:56 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
7/27/26; 2:25 PM EST = +52; signal line is +37
7/27/26; 12:58 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
7/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +37; go long 7479 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +9.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -3.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Tuesday session begins with 4 numbers printing off the bat including the prescheduled number. The bulls are in control of the stock market with the algo number 16 points above the signal line.

The market can be boiled down into 3 key metrics; utes, copper and vol.

The lines in the sand are UTIL 1158, CPER 37.93 and VIX 19.18. All are sitting in the bull camp creating lift in the US stock market but if you get up and grab a cup of coffee, it will probably be different when you get back.

The bulls goosed utilities higher out of the gate to firmly keep them in the bull camp. Copper is a game of pennies, copper pennies, where the bears can create negativity if they flex their muscles. Same-o with volatility. Bears need the VIX above 19.18, and staying above, and then above 20 and higher to create stock market turmoil.

Interestingly, vol turning bearish is likely not enough for the quant to want to flip short but if copper turned sour, that would be. Of course, both turning bearish would likely seal the deal for the downside. 

The bulls are kicking back and relaxing, despite the rout in chips, as long as they keep the VIX below 19.18 and CPER above 37.93. The bulls are pumping Today. Smashing Pumpkins.

8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/26; 10:06 AM EST = +52; signal line is +36
7/28/26; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +35
7/28/26; 9:48 AM EST = +38; signal line is +35
7/28/26; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35
7/27/26; 3:26 PM EST = +36; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side at SPX 7479 after yesterday's opening bell. The choppy sideways slop continues this year chewing up bulls and bears alike.

Utilities were the bell of the ball yesterday. The session started out happy with UTIL well above the 1158.11 line in the sand for this week, but that was short-lived. Utes folded like your cheap suit dropping below 1158 and then the battle continued all day long with UTIL ending in the bear camp at 1157. Obviously, there will be more drama today.

Bulls need stronger utilities to maintain buoyancy in the stock market. Chips also need to rally but they are taking the pipe again in the premarket. The KOSPI crashes overnight due to SK Hynix and Samsung, their two top semi's that make up the majority of the index, puking their guts out.

The bears need weaker copper, commodities and retail stocks, and higher volatility, to take back control of the stock market. Copper futures need to drop about -2.2% to help the bears. Copper is soggy this morning down -0.8% so the bears have more wood to chop.

XRT is above 89 and needs to drop to 87 to help the bears. The bear's hopes are placed into volatility. VIX 19.18 is the doorway to negativity for the stock market and in the wee hours this morning it crossed above but if you blinked, you missed it, because it quickly retreated once the bulls saw that the submerged VIX beachball may explode up and out of the water. VIX is at 18.93 as this is typed only a quarter (25 cents) away from trouble. Flip that coin.

What does all that mumbo-jumbo mean? Bulls are in control now and look to maintain control unless the VIX pops above 19.18 and/or CPER drops below 37.93, and/or XRT falls below 87. If any one of the three turn bearish, consider the turn to the downside to be imminent and if the SPX loses 7383 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the short side. The Fed meeting is tomorrow and stocks are typically buoyant 80% of the time leading into the rate decision.

On the last trade that ran for only 3 days, the quant program and actual trading each lose a little less than a percent. The choppy slop continues. For the year, the benchmark SPX is up about +9%, the quant program is up a percent, and the actual trading generated by the quant is down almost -4% underperforming the benchmark by 13 percentage-points. Keybot the Quant exited SH and entered DIA remaining in single ETF's until 8/9/26.

Watch utilities, volatility, copper and retail stocks. Bulls need higher utes and lower volatility. Bears need higher vol and lower copper and retail stocks. Roll those dice, baby. The Roller.

8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/27/26; 3:26 PM EST = +36; signal line is +35
7/27/26; 3:12 PM EST = +52; signal line is +36
7/27/26; 2:56 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
7/27/26; 2:25 PM EST = +52; signal line is +37
7/27/26; 12:58 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
7/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +37; go long 7479 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +9.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -3.6%)
7/26/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/24/26; 11:16 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37
7/24/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +38
7/23/26; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +39
7/23/26; 2:02 PM EST = +20; signal line is +40
7/23/26; 1:17 PM EST = +36; signal line is +41
7/23/26; 1:10 PM EST = +22; signal line is +41
7/23/26; 12:03 PM EST = +36; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 11:17 AM EST = +20; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 11:05 AM EST = +36; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 10:11 AM EST = +22; signal line is +42; go short 7423 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +8.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.5%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short in these topsy-turvy markets. Of course, in the craziness, the algo number and signal line are the same so the bulls and bears are battling back and forth with swords on the castle wall each trying not to fall off. Someone will win.

The chips failed out of the gate on Friday morning but the bulls pumped retail stocks to prevent any significant downside in the stock market. Utilities, retail stocks, copper, volatility and chips are the moving parts impacting stock market direction currently.

Utilities are key at the opening bell tomorrow morning. UTIL begins at 1173 above the 1158.11 line in the sand for all of next week. This will create bullishness in the stock market right away. Bears need to find a way to send UTIL below 1158, otherwise, they will end up with buptkis.

Same idea with volatility. Bears need VIX above 19.60 to prove they got game. It stocks sell off but the VIX does not go above 19.60, the bears got nothing and stocks will reverse to the upside.

Copper is also key. Bears need copper futures to drop -1.3% to create downside fuel for the stock market. The trading in copper and volatility overnight will provide a heads-up on how the US trading day will be, and keep in mind that utes are probably going to create lift in stocks.

Since utilities may turn bullish at the open, that means the quant will likely want to whipsaw back to the long side. The bulls, however, will also need the SPX to rally above 7461 heading higher so watch to see if S&P futures are up about +50 points. If UTIL is above 1158, and the SPX above 7461, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

Bulls need stronger semiconductors and if SOX moves above 12230, they are back in business for lots more upside in stocks. This, however, equates to about a +3.5% rally in chips.

Since the retail stocks were pumped to prevent Friday from collapsing, watch XRT 86.70. Price begins at 87.01 so the bears need about a -0.4% drop in XRT to bolster the case for more downside in stocks.

Bulls need UTIL above 1158 and that may be a given, and SPX above 7461 to flip the quant long, and SOX above 12230 will guarantee more bullish joy ahead.

Bears need to pull XRT below 86.70 right away since that will nullify a lot of the utility joy. Bears also need CPER below 37.85, VIX above 19.60 and UTIL below 1158 to create serious downside carnage for the stock market.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other Friday morning, both after the opening bells, and the July month of trading ends on Friday with August trading starting next Monday. The market has more moving parts than Tina Turner. What a great entertainer. Everybody loves Tina.

8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/26/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/24/26; 11:16 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37
7/24/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +38
7/23/26; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +39

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short today at SPX 7423 as the stock market storm rains down some negativity. Stocks are spewing out a lot of sideways choppy slop chewing up bulls and bears alike. The robot spits out 9 numbers today including the flip to the short side. The bears are running the show now but the algo number is only 3 points below the signal line not exactly a ringing endorsement of serious downside.

Retail stocks failed this morning during the initial down flush with stocks. Volatility popped higher so it looked like the bulls were going to receive their comeuppance today, and the quant flips short, but the remainder of the day was indecision and bulls and bears unable to make up their minds on what to do. Chips failed today but recovered at the end of the day and INTC is up in the afterhours so chips will likely remain buoyant.

While all this drama occurs, UTIL sneaks around in the bushes and almost runs high enough to tag the 1183 line in the sand for this week. This number is meaningless after tomorrow and replaced with 1158.11 for all for next week. UTIL is at 1173 so only 9 points away from creating big upside in stocks tomorrow, but even if it does not achieve 1183 tomorrow, but finishes the week above 1158, that will begin next week on an upbeat note for the bulls.

It boils down to a tag-team cage match. The lines in the sand are UTIL 1183, XRT 86.70, SOX 12274 and VIX 19.61. Utes, retail stocks, chips and volatility, respectively, are all that matter to stock market direction currently. Utilities and retail stocks are in the bear camp creating negativity in the stock market. Chips and volatility are in the bull camp creating joy in stocks and preventing any significant downside from occurring.

Thus, bears need SOX below 12274 and/or VIX above 19.61 to create market mayhem.

Bulls need UTIL above 1183 and/or XRT above 86.70. Either one flipping bullish would place the robot in position to go long.

On the last trade that ran for almost 2 weeks, the quant program loses -1.4% and the actual trading loses -1.5%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about +8%, the quant program is up a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the quant is down -3%. Keybot the Quant cannot gain traction with the non-stop choppy slop. The robot remains in the single ETF's due to the whipsaw timer triggered after the last trade. The robot will return to 2x ETF's on 8/9/26 or later. The quant drops down into the 1x ETF's to reduce risk in perceived whipsaw choppy conditions ahead. Keybot the Quant exited SPY and entered SH. Keep riding the storm with Jim. Riders On the Storm. Into this world we are thrown.

7/26/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/23/26; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +39
7/23/26; 2:02 PM EST = +20; signal line is +40
7/23/26; 1:17 PM EST = +36; signal line is +41
7/23/26; 1:10 PM EST = +22; signal line is +41
7/23/26; 12:03 PM EST = +36; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 11:17 AM EST = +20; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 11:05 AM EST = +36; signal line is +42
7/23/26; 10:11 AM EST = +22; signal line is +42; go short 7423 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +8.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.5%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.9%)
7/23/26; 10:02 AM EST = +36; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/21/26; 11:12 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
7/19/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:48 AM EST = +36; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:35 AM EST = +20; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:26 AM EST = +36; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:00 AM EST = +20; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains long
7/15/26; 10:37 AM EST = +48; signal line is +47
7/14/26; 9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +48
7/13/26; 12:36 PM EST = +48; signal line is +47
7/13/26; 11:10 AM EST = +64; signal line is +46
7/12/26; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +46
7/10/26; 9:36 AM EST = +50; signal line is +45
7/9/26; 3:33 PM EST = +34; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/9/26; 12:24 PM EST = +50; signal line is +45; go long 7534 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +10.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +3.2%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long navigating the Friday to today tumult. The algo number is 9 points above the signal line with the bulls in control so the last couple trading days of negativity amounted to buptkis.

Utilities, chips and volatility are the three parameters controlling stock market direction currently. All 3 are bullish creating lift to stocks and today's upside orgy is due to the semiconductors jumping back into the bull camp. In addition, Doctor Copper is bent over the gurney and goosed higher. The bulls are puffing out their chests. Volatility also remains subdued so the bulls mock the bears and send in more dip-buyers to buy, buy, buy.

Interestingly, the bulls are having trouble keeping utes buoyant. UTIL, or DJU, drops to 1136 today only 14 points above the UTIL 1122 line in the sand that would open the door to pain and misery. Price recovers to 1140.

The lines in the sand are UTIL 1122, SOX 12274 and VIX 19.61. Since the chips just switched sides, watch the SOX 12274 line in the sand as the most important number for today. Bears need 1 of the 3 to turn bearish to position the quant to go short again. Of course, 2 of 3 turning negative will mean that stocks are falling apart and if all 3 take the pipe, stocks will be falling like rocks. Why does a sock always disappear every time you do the wash? It appears that the sock heaven wanted it. Only the good socks disappear. Will the SOX get Lost today in Linkin Park?

7/26/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/21/26; 11:12 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
7/19/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 7 points below the signal line. The circus is in full swing as the crazy and erratic stock market behavior continues. Friday was a wild down day with the quant spitting out 6 numbers, including the 2 prescheduled numbers, but stocks finished off the bottom.

The imminent turn is in play because Keybot the Quant will likely flip short if the SPX drops down into the 7408-7431 area. A gap-down move, however, will delay any change. It would be best for the bears if they send the SPX slowly lower.

The bulls need stronger utilities and chips if they want to take stocks higher. Bears need weaker copper and utilities to create mayhem.

Bulls need UTIL above 1183 and SOX above 12370 to save the day and create upside in stocks.

Bears need UTIL below 1122 and there will be Hell to pay. Bears need CPER below 37.81 to create broad stock market selling and price is only 11 cents above at 37.92. Pay attention to copper.

The VIX had a 19 handle on Friday but that was still not good enough for bears to slash deeply. Real trouble starts for stocks if the VIX moves above 20.18 heading higher.

Keybot the Quant does not print any prescheduled numbers this week. Copper, utilities and chips are controlling US stock market direction currently. Copperhead Road.

7/26/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/19/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:48 AM EST = +36; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:35 AM EST = +20; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:26 AM EST = +36; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 10:00 AM EST = +20; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/17/26; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains long
7/15/26; 10:37 AM EST = +48; signal line is +47
7/14/26; 9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +48
7/13/26; 12:36 PM EST = +48; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading is off and stumbling. The bulls are in control but only by one measly point. Flip a coin for the stock market.

Copper stayed in the bull camp all day. Utilities also remained status quo. Chips soiled the sheets. Commodities run higher due to King Donnie's latest proclamation of taking over the Strait of Hormuz and charging ships for passage exactly what we want to fight against Iran from doing. The orange head is clueless. Comically, Iran is mocking Trump for this same obvious reason. What a screw-up. Higher commodities is higher goods inflation is higher oil is higher gasoline is higher food.

Bulls need to prove that they got game by pushing UTIL above 1174 and/or SOX above 12401.

Bears need to pull UTIL below 1121, and/or CPER below 37.80 and/or GTX below 5130. There are a lot of moving parts including retail stocks. Keeping it simple so you can have something to watch, if any 1 of the three turn bearish, and the SPX falls below 7506 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

All of those parameters are walking a tightrope so Anything Can Happen by pretty Ellie.

Pay attention to SOX (chips) and CPER (copper). Since the algo number is only 1 point above the signal line, with the bulls holding on by a fingernail, the bears may try and jog the chips to get the model to flip negative. If SOX pops back above 12401 with the bulls puffing their chest, but then falls back below 12401 again making bears smile, or perhaps does it a couple times, it may be enough for the algo number to slip below the signal line and cause the quant to flip short so keep that in mind if you see SOX dancing to and fro above and below 12401.

It should be an exciting week ahead in Funkytown.

7/19/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/17/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/17/26; 9:00 AM EST =
7/13/26; 12:36 PM EST = +48; signal line is +47
7/13/26; 11:10 AM EST = +64; signal line is +46
7/12/26; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after the crazy ride last week but the algo number is only 4 measly points above the signal line. That should continue this week. The bulls pumped copper at Friday's opening bell so the fix was in and the week would end on a positive note, and it did.

Utilities could not get above 1152 on Friday to lock in more upside joy for stocks and this number is now meaningless and replaced with 1174 for all of this week a harder number to reach.

Let's call Monday a cage match with Doctor Copper versus Ute. Utilities and copper enter the cage but only one will exit. UTIL, 1174, UTIL 1121 and CPER 37.79 are the lines in the sand to begin the week.

UTIL, or DJU, begins at 1150 so 24 upside points will guarantee a bull victory ahead and new all-time record highs for the stock market. However, a drop of 29 points will open the gates to Hell for stocks.

Copper is creating bullishness for equities with CPER at 37.99 above the 37.79 line in the sand. Will copper reverse to the downside out of the gate on Monday the reversal move of what it did on Friday morning? Copper futures trade overnight so watch to see if a -0.5% pullback is occurring, or not. Stocks will be in trouble if you see copper trading down more than a half percent.

The stage is set. Bulls win by keeping copper elevated and pushing UTIL above 1174. Bears win by keeping utilities week, and moving down towards UTIL 1121, and pushing CPER below 37.79. If copper turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to be in play for the quant, and then if the SPX drops below 7508, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The stock market is a mess right now extremely erratic and unstable while market participants remain over the top bullish wanting to buy any dip. There is likely more drama to come in the week ahead. Chips are creating bullishness so watch that sector for weakness. Same-o with retail stocks so watch for any weakness there. Commodities are creating negativity in stocks as oil prices drop (oil companies retreat) but they are headed higher again in recent days. If pressure rains down on stocks, will the dip-buyers show up? Who'll Stop the Rain? Confusion on the ground.

7/19/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/17/26; 10:00 AM EST =
7/17/26; 9:00 AM EST =
7/12/26; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +46
7/10/26; 9:36 AM EST = +50; signal line is +45
7/9/26; 3:33 PM EST = +34; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long