Tuesday, August 24, 2021

Keybot the Quant On Hiatus

The Keybot the Quant and The Keystone Speculator sites are not supported by the 100's of thousands of international readers. There is no better stock market timing model than Keybot the Quant. It is surprising that the robot is not supported to a greater extent over the years considering the huge international audience.

Monday, August 16, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips short this morning at the opening bell at SPX 4454 but is already champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the long side. The internal parameters will not fully latch so for now at least, the bears are in charge. The SPX is up 6.66 points to 4475 the HOD with about a half hour left in the Monday trade.

On the last trade, that ran a little over a week, the quant program and actual trading each gain about a percent. On the year, the SPX is up +19%. The bulls cheer the generous Federal Reserve. The algo program is up +17% on the year thus far and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is up +24%. Keybot exits SH and enters SDS returning to the 2x ETF's because the whipsaw timer expired.

VIX 17.17 is the rudder that is steering the stock market ship. VIX is at 16.17 so the SPX is buoyant. Trouble occurs if VIX moves above 17.17. If VIX remains below 17.17, stocks will float higher and Keybot will probably whipsaw long tomorrow.

8/22/21; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/21; 9:00 AM EST =
8/16/21; 11:19 AM EST = +72; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
8/16/21; 9:30 AM EST = +58; signal line is +63; go short 4454; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +18.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +16.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.9%; Actual results for 2021 = +24.1%)
8/16/21; 8:07 AM EST = +58; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains long
8/16/21; 6:35 AM EST = +72; signal line is +61
8/16/21; 6:05 AM EST = +58; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
8/15/21; 7:00 PM EST = +72; signal line is +61
8/13/21; 2:08 PM EST = +72; signal line is +60
8/13/21; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +59
8/13/21; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +58
8/10/21; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +58
8/9/21; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +57
8/8/21; 7:00 PM EST = +72; signal line is +58
8/6/21; 9:00 AM EST = +72; signal line is +57
8/5/21; 3:54 PM EST = +72; signal line is +57
8/5/21; 3:19 PM EST = +58; signal line is +57
8/5/21; 3:07 PM EST = +72; signal line is +56
8/5/21; 2:49 PM EST = +58; signal line is +56
8/5/21; 1:33 PM EST = +72; signal line is +55
8/5/21; 11:48 AM EST = +58; signal line is +55
8/5/21; 10:51 AM EST = +72; signal line is +55
8/5/21; 10:01 AM EST = +58; signal line is +53; go long 4419; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2021 = +23.2%)

Monday, August 9, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week is off and stumbling. The bulls control stock market direction with the algo number 14 points above the signal line. The bears can turn the stock market negative with weaker utilities, retail stocks and higher volatility(any 1 of the 3). Bulls need higher copper to prove that they can take stocks higher.

Bears need UTIL below 919.25, RTH below 175.55 and/or VIX above 17.29 to cause market mayhem. The amount of mayhem is proportional to the number of parameters flipping short. UTIL has come down to 919.90 today and VIX up to 17.39 (but could not hold above). Since utilities and volatility are teasing they are the two to watch which would change the stock market trend to the downside.

Bulls need CPER above 26.78. 

8/15/21; 7:00 PM EST =
8/13/21; 10:00 AM EST =
8/8/21; 7:00 PM EST = +72; signal line is +58
8/6/21; 9:00 AM EST = +72; signal line is +57
8/5/21; 3:54 PM EST = +72; signal line is +57

Friday, August 6, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday at SPX 4419 but with the US Monthly Jobs Report imminent, do not be surprised if a whipsaw occurs. Copper and volatility are all that matter currently. Bulls win and more all-time highs occur if copper gains about +1%. Bears win if the VIX moves above 17.42. The bull-bear struggle and battle is obvious in the data below.

Interestingly, copper futures are up near +1% right now a hair away from what the bulls need. VIX is at 17.15 so the bulls are happy but the Jobs Report will set the tone.

On the last trade, that ran for about a week, the quant program and actual trading each lose about a half percent. For 2021 thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 Index, SPX, the United States stock market, is up nearly +18% at all-time record highs this week. The quant program is up +16% and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is up +24% on the year so far.

8/8/21; 7:00 PM EST =
8/6/21; 9:00 AM EST =
8/5/21; 3:54 PM EST = +72; signal line is +57
8/5/21; 3:19 PM EST = +58; signal line is +57
8/5/21; 3:07 PM EST = +72; signal line is +56
8/5/21; 2:49 PM EST = +58; signal line is +56
8/5/21; 1:33 PM EST = +72; signal line is +55
8/5/21; 11:48 AM EST = +58; signal line is +55
8/5/21; 10:51 AM EST = +72; signal line is +55
8/5/21; 10:01 AM EST = +58; signal line is +53; go long 4419; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2021 = +23.2%)
8/4/21; 3:24 PM EST = +58; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains short
8/4/21; 9:36 AM EST = +42; signal line is +53
8/3/21; 2:06 PM EST = +58; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
8/3/21; 1:40 PM EST = +42; signal line is +52
8/3/21; 1:14 PM EST = +58; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains short
8/3/21; 12:38 PM EST = +42; signal line is +52
8/3/21; 10:41 AM EST = +58; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
8/3/21; 9:42 AM EST = +42; signal line is +54
8/3/21; 9:41 AM EST = +26; signal line is +55
8/3/21; 9:36 AM EST = +42; signal line is +56
8/1/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +58; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains short
7/30/21; 2:52 PM EST = +58; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short
7/30/21; 2:34 PM EST = +42; signal line is +56
7/30/21; 10:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short
7/30/21; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short
7/29/21; 3:42 PM EST = +74; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short
7/29/21; 3:07 PM EST = +60; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains short
7/29/21; 1:07 PM EST = +74; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short
7/29/21; 12:47 PM EST = +60; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains short
7/29/21; 9:36 AM EST = +74; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains short
7/29/21; 9:08 AM EST = +58; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short
7/28/21; 3:54 PM EST = +44; signal line is +54
7/28/21; 2:40 PM EST = +60; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short
7/28/21; 9:56 AM EST = +44; signal line is +54
7/28/21; 9:37 AM EST = +60; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
7/27/21; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +53
7/27/21; 12:10 PM EST = +28; signal line is +52
7/27/21; 10:38 AM EST = +44; signal line is +53
7/27/21; 10:29 AM EST = +60; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains short
7/27/21; 10:17 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50; go short 4395; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +17.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +16.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2021 = +23.7%)

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side as Fed Chairman Powell tap dances all day. The quant spits out 4 numbers today. Banks were active but when it was done preferred the bear camp.

Bears need weaker chips, for SOX to fall under 3213, or they got nothing. The bears are trying to chip away Little By Little, as Susan plays.

Bulls need stronger utes and banks, and lower volatility, UTIL above 923.71 and XLF above 36.47, and VIX below 17.56, respectively. Any 1 of the 3 turning bullish will immediately stop all selling in the stock market and a rally will begin. The rally will gain strength if 1 of the other 2, or both, also turn bullish. 

Since the banks were in the limelight today, you have to figure they will lead the stock market move directional move tomorrow. XLF is at 36.41 only 6 pennies on the bear side of the line in the sand at 36.47 so watch the pre-market. This will tell you a lot. Also, the VIX trades at 3 AM EST and if it drops below 17.56, the bulls will rule on Thursday. 

8/1/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/21; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/21; 3:54 PM EST = +44; signal line is +54
7/28/21; 2:40 PM EST = +60; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short
7/28/21; 9:56 AM EST = +44; signal line is +54
7/28/21; 9:37 AM EST = +60; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
7/27/21; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips short yesterday morning at SPX 4395. Volatility is higher, utes have failed albeit barely now, chips failed but recovered and banks failed and almost recovered. In other words, it is a crap-shoot. Mix the Federal Reserve into the market soup today and it is anyone's game.

If UTIL remains below 923.71, and XLF below 36.47, and VIX above 17.55, stocks will weaken. If SOX loses 3211.30, stocks will take a strong leg lower.

If the semiconductors remain bullish and any of the other three other parameters turn bullish, stocks are off to the races higher and the up move can be gauged by the remaining two parameters flipping bullish, or not.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading both gain a little over a percent. On the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +17% at record highs, the algo program is up +16% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +24%. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters SH. Today we see what the bears got.

8/1/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/21; 10:00 AM EST =
7/27/21; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +53
7/27/21; 12:10 PM EST = +28; signal line is +52
7/27/21; 10:38 AM EST = +44; signal line is +53
7/27/21; 10:29 AM EST = +60; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains short
7/27/21; 10:17 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50; go short 4395; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +17.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +16.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2021 = +23.7%)
7/27/21; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
7/26/21; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
7/26/21; 3:06 AM EST = +60; signal line is +48
7/25/21; 7:00 PM EST = +74; signal line is +46
7/23/21; 11:59 AM EST = +74; signal line is +44
7/23/21; 9:51 AM EST = +58; signal line is +42
7/23/21; 9:36 AM EST = +74; signal line is +39
7/22/21; 3:59 PM EST = +58; signal line is +37
7/22/21; 3:37 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
7/22/21; 1:36 PM EST = +58; signal line is +36
7/22/21; 11:38 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
7/22/21; 10:42 AM EST = +58; signal line is +36
7/22/21; 9:37 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
7/22/21; 8:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
7/22/21; 3:44 AM EST = +74; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 11:21 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 11:04 AM EST = +44; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 10:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 10:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +38
7/21/21; 9:52 AM EST = +60; signal line is +39
7/21/21; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39; go long 4344; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.1%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2021 = +22.4%)

Thursday, July 22, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday after the opening bell at SPX 4344. Stocks fell apart on Monday but recover the last couple days as the dip buyers jump into action waving the Federal Reserve and Congressional stimulus banners. Bulls are cruising with the algo number 37 points above the signal line, however, the quant may flip back to the short side at anytime. The robot knew this choppy slop was coming.

Stocks go up if VIX remains below 17.74.  Stocks go up if XLF remains above 36.52. Bulls need about a +1.7% pop in copper futures to create more upside in the stock market. Copper is up +0.9% right now so the bulls need to keep pushing the red metal higher if they want the rally to continue. Stocks will fall apart if volatility and banks turn negative.

The quant flips twice in the SPX 4344-4349 range. Write this down since the robot considers this level to be important for some reason.

Watch the utilities closely since an epic signal may be forming. UTIL is at 892.29 and must remain above 891.67 this week to keep the stock market rally alive. Stocks will soften if UTIL 891.67 fails. Further, for next week, UTIL must be above 923.71 so the bulls have a heck of a lot of work to do in 2 days. By 4 PM EST Friday, bulls need UTIL above 924 which is 32 big points above current levels. Can the bulls do it? If you see utilities rallying big the next couple days, the stock market will likely remain elevated at record levels for another month or two. If UTIL is unable to get to 924 by the end of trading Friday, there will be Hell to pay next week. If UTIL falls below 866, it is likely the stock market will crash.

On the last trade, which only danced for a week, another flat move occurs. On the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +16%, the quant program is up +15% and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is up +22%. Keybot the Quant exits SH and enters SPY remaining in the 1x ETF's until the whipsaw timer expires which is Friday the 13th. Stocks are in the choppy slop pattern.

Volatility, banks, copper and utilities are controlling broad stock market direction currently. Nothing else matters as Metallica sings.

7/25/21; 7:00 PM EST =
7/22/21; 3:44 AM EST = +74; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 11:21 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 11:04 AM EST = +44; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 10:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 10:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +38
7/21/21; 9:52 AM EST = +60; signal line is +39
7/21/21; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39; go long 4344; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.1%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2021 = +22.4%)
7/20/21; 3:59 PM EST = +28; signal line is +40
7/20/21; 2:30 PM EST = +44; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains short
7/20/21; 1:09 PM EST = +28; signal line is +43
7/20/21; 12:55 PM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
7/20/21; 9:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +44
7/20/21; 9:39 AM EST = +14; signal line is +45
7/20/21; 9:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +47
7/19/21; 3:47 PM EST = +28; signal line is +48
7/19/21; 3:10 PM EST = +14; signal line is +47
7/19/21; 2:54 PM EST = -2; signal line is +48
7/19/21; 2:42 PM EST = +14; signal line is +50
7/19/21; 1:36 PM EST = +12; signal line is +52
7/19/21; 1:34 PM EST = -2; signal line is +54
7/19/21; 1:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +57
7/19/21; 3:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +59
7/18/21; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +61
7/16/21; 10:14 AM EST = +42; signal line is +62
7/16/21; 10:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +63
7/16/21; 9:42 AM EST = +60; signal line is +64
7/15/21; 3:59 PM EST = +76; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
7/15/21; 1:32 PM EST = +60; signal line is +63; go short 4349; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2021 = +22.3%)

Friday, July 16, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and chips fail. This creates the additional weakness in the stock market. Bears next have their eyes on volatility trying to remove the Federal Reserve's jackboots off the throat of Uncle Vix.

If SOX recovers above 3205, she's coming back up for the pulse right now, stocks will recover. If SOX remains sub 3205 and VIX moves above 18.05, the stock market will fall apart.

7/18/21; 7:00 PM EST =
7/16/21; 10:14 AM EST = +42; signal line is +62
7/16/21; 10:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side on Thursday afternoon at SPX 4349. The chop suey continues with markets unsure which way they want to break. The Fed keeps pumping. 

Banks and semiconductors are running the show. XLF above 36.60 and stocks recover. SOX below 3200 and another leg down in equities occurs.

On the last trade that ran for almost a week, the algo program and the actual trading generated by the quant is dead flat. On the year, the benchmark SPX is up almost +16%, the quant program is up +15% and the actual trading up +22%. Keybot exited SPY and entered SH.

7/16/21; 10:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +63
7/16/21; 9:42 AM EST = +60; signal line is +64
7/15/21; 3:59 PM EST = +76; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
7/15/21; 1:32 PM EST = +60; signal line is +63; go short 4349; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2021 = +22.3%)
7/15/21; 10:02 AM EST = +76; signal line is +62
7/15/21; 7:35 AM EST = +46; signal line is +59 but algorithm remains long
7/14/21; 10:02 AM EST = +60; signal line is +59
7/13/21; 1:26 PM EST = +76; signal line is +58
7/13/21; 12:22 PM EST = +60; signal line is +55
7/13/21; 12:04 PM EST = +76; signal line is +54
7/13/21; 10:50 AM EST = +60; signal line is +53
7/11/21; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +52
7/9/21; 2:12 PM EST = +76; signal line is +51
7/9/21; 9:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50; go long 4345; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.0%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2021 = +22.2%)

Friday, July 9, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side today. Yesterday morning, the quant flips short and this morning long so Monday morning short again? Anything is possible. Volatility has dictated market direction the last 2 days. The Fed kept its jackboots on the throat of volatility all day to provide lift to the stock market and then the banks were pumped after the announcement that more money-printing will continue forever.

On the last trade which only ran for a day, the quant program loses -0.6% and the actual trading loses about -2%. The flip is quantified as a whipsaw by the robot so the program drops into single ETF mode. Stocks are likely going into a sideways choppy slop pattern that will chew-up bulls and bears alike. Chop suey. Keybot exits SDS and enters SPY. On the year, the benchmark SPX is up almost +16%, the quant program is up +15% and the actual trading generated by the robot is up +22% in 2021.

For next week, it is copper, banks and volatility controlling market direction. If copper futures are up overnight Sunday, stocks will keep rallying. Flat or lower copper futures will keep the bears in the game and hint that a flat or lower stock market is ahead for Monday. VIX above 18.61 or XLF below 36.58 will create stock market trouble. A leg down occurs in stocks if one parameter fails but if both volatility spikes and banks fail, the stock market will accelerate lower. UTIL must remain above 880 all next week or that spells trouble.

7/18/21; 7:00 PM EST =
7/16/21; 10:00 AM EST =
7/11/21; 7:00 PM EST =
7/9/21; 2:12 PM EST = +76; signal line is +51
7/9/21; 9:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50; go long 4345; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.0%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2021 = +22.2%)
7/9/21; 3:06 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains short
7/8/21; 2:13 PM EST = +46; signal line is +50
7/8/21; 11:44 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains short
7/8/21; 10:07 AM EST = +46; signal line is +50
7/8/21; 9:38 AM EST = +30; signal line is +51
7/8/21; 9:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +52; go short 4321; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.6%)(Actual results this trade = +5.0%; Actual results for 2021 = +24.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at yesterday's opening bell and is now champing at the bit to flip back to the long side.

On the last trade that ran for about 2-1/2 weeks, the algo program gains about +3% and the actual trading gains +5%. For the year thus far, the S&P 500, SPX, the US stock market, is up almost +16%, the quant program is up +15% and the actual trading is up over +24% with one-half the year over. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS.

If VIX is below 18.69, like this minute, stocks and futures go up. If VIX is above 18.69, stocks will fall apart. If SOX loses 3192, the stock market will take a drastic leg lower.

7/11/21; 7:00 PM EST =
7/9/21; 3:06 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains short
7/8/21; 2:13 PM EST = +46; signal line is +50
7/8/21; 11:44 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains short
7/8/21; 10:07 AM EST = +46; signal line is +50
7/8/21; 9:38 AM EST = +30; signal line is +51
7/8/21; 9:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +52; go short 4321; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.6%)(Actual results this trade = +5.0%; Actual results for 2021 = +24.1%)
7/8/21; 4:03 AM EST = +46; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
7/6/21; 9:41 AM EST = +60; signal line is +53
7/4/21; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +52
7/2/21; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +52
6/30/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +76; signal line is +52
6/29/21; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +52
6/27/21; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +52
6/25/21; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +51
6/24/21; 1:06 PM EST = +75; signal line is +51
6/21/21; 10:08 AM EST = +59; signal line is +52
; go long 4201; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +11.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +12.7%)(Actual results this trade = +0.8%; Actual results for 2021 = +19.1%)

Tuesday, June 22, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday at SPX 4201. On the last trade, that ran for 4 trading days, the benchmark SPX loses about a percent with the quant program and the actual trading each gaining about a percent.  The whipsaw timer expires so the robot is back into the 2x ETF's. Keybot exits SH and enters SSO.

6/27/21; 7:00 PM EST =
6/25/21; 10:00 AM EST =
6/21/21; 10:08 AM EST = +59; signal line is +52; go long 4201; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +11.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +12.7%)(Actual results this trade = +0.8%; Actual results for 2021 = +19.1%)
6/21/21; 9:57 AM EST = +45 signal line is +53
6/21/21; 9:45 AM EST = +29; signal line is +54
6/21/21; 9:37 AM EST = +13; signal line is +56
6/20/21; 7:00 PM EST = +29; signal line is +59
6/18/21; 3:18 PM EST = +29; signal line is +60
6/18/21; 3:10 PM EST = +13; signal line is +62
6/18/21; 9:56 AM EST = +29; signal line is +65
6/18/21; 9:47 AM EST = +43; signal line is +67
6/18/21; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +68
6/18/21; 7:47 AM EST = +45; signal line is +70
6/17/21; 12:39 PM EST = +59; signal line is +71
6/17/21; 12:12 PM EST = +43; signal line is +72
6/17/21; 11:14 AM EST = +59; signal line is +73
6/17/21; 10:12 AM EST = +43; signal line is +74
6/17/21; 9:45 AM EST = +59; signal line is +75
6/17/21; 9:36 AM EST = +75; signal line is +76
6/16/21; 3:59 PM EST = +59; signal line is +77
6/16/21; 3:24 PM EST = +75; signal line is +78
6/16/21; 2:08 PM EST = +59; signal line is +79
6/16/21; 1:35 PM EST = +43; signal line is +79
6/16/21; 1:26 PM EST = +59; signal line is +80
6/16/21; 12:28 PM EST = +75; signal line is +80; go short 4237; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +12.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +11.8%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2021 = +18.3%)

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips short at SPX 4237 at 12:28 PM EST today.

On the last trade that ran about 3-1/2 weeks, the algo program and actual trading both gain about +2%.  For the year, the benchmark SPX is up almost +13%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +12% and the actual trading has gained over +18% thus far this year. Keybot exits SPY and enters SH remaining in the 1x ETF's. The whipsaw timer has 4 days remaining where the quant will use 2x leveraged EF's again, as long as a whipsaw does not occur tomorrow.

The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. Copper and retail stocks drag down the indexes today, ditto banks but they recovered, thus, these 3 parameters dictate the stock market direction ahead.

The caution flag is not out but will be out if copper or retail stocks rally. Bears will crush the stock market if banks and/or chips fail.

6/20/21; 7:00 PM EST =
6/16/21; 3:59 PM EST = +59; signal line is +77
6/16/21; 3:24 PM EST = +75; signal line is +78
6/16/21; 2:08 PM EST = +59; signal line is +79
6/16/21; 1:35 PM EST = +43; signal line is +79
6/16/21; 1:26 PM EST = +59; signal line is +80
6/16/21; 12:28 PM EST = +75; signal line is +80; go short 4237; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +12.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +11.8%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2021 = +18.3%)
6/16/21; 9:00 AM EST = +75; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains long
6/15/21; 12:22 PM EST = +75; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains long
6/15/21; 11:56 AM EST = +59; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains long
6/15/21; 9:36 AM EST = +75; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains long
6/13/21; 7:00 PM EST = +91; signal line is +79
6/11/21; 10:00 AM EST = +91; signal line is +78
6/10/21; 9:51 AM EST = +89; signal line is +78
6/9/21; 3:31 PM EST = +73; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long
6/8/21; 9:36 AM EST = +89; signal line is +77
6/7/21; 10:12 AM EST = +73; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
6/6/21; 7:00 PM EST = +89; signal line is +76
6/4/21; 2:18 PM EST = +89; signal line is +75
6/4/21; 9:57 AM EST = +73; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long
6/4/21; 9:36 AM EST = +89; signal line is +74
6/4/21; 9:00 AM EST = +73; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long
6/3/21; 3:55 PM EST = +73; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long
6/3/21; 3:35 PM EST = +89; signal line is +74
6/3/21; 2:53 PM EST = +73; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long
6/3/21; 2:06 PM EST = +89; signal line is +73
6/3/21; 9:36 AM EST = +73; signal line is +72
5/30/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +89; signal line is +71
5/28/21; 10:00 AM EST = +89; signal line is +70
5/25/21; 10:00 AM EST = +92; signal line is +70
5/24/21; 9:41 AM EST = +92; signal line is +69
5/23/21; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +68
5/20/21; 1:03 PM EST = +76; signal line is +68
5/20/21; 12:32 PM EST = +62; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long
5/20/21; 11:25 AM EST = +76; signal line is +68
5/20/21; 10:53 AM EST = +62; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long
5/20/21; 10:34 AM EST = +76; signal line is +68; go long 4144; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +10.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +9.6%)(Actual results this trade = -3.1%; Actual results for 2021 = +15.9%)

Friday, May 21, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side at SPX 4144. On the last trade, which only lasted about 7-1/2 trading hours, the quant program is flat but the actual trading loses about -3% due to the big tech rally. Keybot exits QID and enters SPY. The whipsaw forces the robot to go into single 1x ETF mode for one month's time (non-leveraged ETF's). The quant sees choppy slop ahead and chop suey chews up bulls and bears alike. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +10%, the Keybot the Quant program is up +10% and the actual trading generated by the robot is up +16% in 2021.

5/23/21; 7:00 PM EST =
5/20/21; 1:03 PM EST = +76; signal line is +68
5/20/21; 12:32 PM EST = +62; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long
5/20/21; 11:25 AM EST = +76; signal line is +68
5/20/21; 10:53 AM EST = +62; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long
5/20/21; 10:34 AM EST = +76; signal line is +68; go long 4144; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +10.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +9.6%)(Actual results this trade = -3.1%; Actual results for 2021 = +15.9%)
5/19/21; 11:05 AM EST = +62; signal line is +68
5/19/21; 10:42 AM EST = +46; signal line is +69
5/18/21; 3:59 PM EST = +62; signal line is +70; go short 4132; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +10.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +9.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2021 = +19.0%)

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 4132. On the last trade that only ran for 3 days, the losses on the quant program and actual trading are negligible. For the year, the S&P 500 benchmark index is up +10%, the Keybot the Quant program is up +10% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +19%. Keybot exits SSO and enters QID remaining in the leveraged ETF's.

5/23/21; 7:00 PM EST =
5/18/21; 3:59 PM EST = +62; signal line is +70; go short 4132; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +10.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +9.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2021 = +19.0%)
5/18/21; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +71
5/17/21; 2:55 PM EST = +76; signal line is +72
5/17/21; 2:44 PM EST = +62; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long
5/17/21; 2:13 PM EST = +76; signal line is +74
5/17/21; 1:23 PM EST = +62; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long
5/17/21; 12:16 PM EST = +76; signal line is +75
5/17/21; 11:57 AM EST = +62; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains long
5/16/21; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
5/14/21; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
5/14/21; 9:30 AM EST = +78; signal line is +76; go long 4144; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +10.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +10.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2021 = +19.4%)

Saturday, May 15, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side Friday morning at SPX 4144. On the last trade, the quant program is flat and the actual trading loses about a percent. On the year, the S&P 500 benchmark index is up +10.3%, the Keybot the Quant program is up +10.2% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +20% in 2021 thus far. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's. The algo is already champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the short side again. Flip a coin.

5/23/21; 7:00 PM EST =
5/18/21; 9:00 AM EST =
5/16/21; 7:00 PM EST = 
5/14/21; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
5/14/21; 9:30 AM EST = +78; signal line is +76; go long 4144; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +10.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +10.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2021 = +19.4%)
5/14/21; 9:23 AM EST = +78; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains short
5/13/21; 9:43 AM EST = +64; signal line is +77
5/12/21; 3:07 PM EST = +48; signal line is +78
5/12/21; 2:51 PM EST = +64; signal line is +80
5/12/21; 1:46 PM EST = +48; signal line is +81
5/11/21; 10:14 AM EST = +64; signal line is +82
5/11/21; 10:06 AM EST = +78; signal line is +83
5/11/21; 3:28 AM EST = +64; signal line is +83
5/9/21; 7:00 PM EST = +78; signal line is +84
5/7/21; 9:00 AM EST = +78; signal line is +84
5/4/21; 12:07 PM EST = +78; signal line is +83
5/4/21; 11:53 AM EST = +64; signal line is +82
5/4/21; 11:33 AM EST = +78; signal line is +82
5/4/21; 11:19 AM EST = +64; signal line is +82
5/4/21; 11:18 AM EST = +78; signal line is +82; go short 4133; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +10.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +6.5%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +10.5%)(Actual results this trade = +13.2%; Actual results for 2021 = +20.2%)

Wednesday, May 5, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 4133. On the last trade, the quant program gains +7% and the actual trading gains +13%. On the year, after 4 months, the benchmark SPX is up +10%, the quant model is up +11% and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is up over +20%. 

5/9/21; 7:00 PM EST =
5/7/21; 9:00 AM EST =
5/4/21; 12:07 PM EST = +78; signal line is +83
5/4/21; 11:53 AM EST = +64; signal line is +82
5/4/21; 11:33 AM EST = +78; signal line is +82
5/4/21; 11:19 AM EST = +64; signal line is +82
5/4/21; 11:18 AM EST = +78; signal line is +82; go short 4133; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +10.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +6.5%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +10.5%)(Actual results this trade = +13.2%; Actual results for 2021 = +20.2%)
5/2/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +78; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
4/30/21; 1:16 PM EST = +78; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
4/30/21; 10:00 AM EST = +94; signal line is +81
4/27/21; 10:00 AM EST = +92; signal line is +80
4/25/21; 7:00 PM EST = +92; signal line is +79
4/21/21; 9:41 AM EST = +92; signal line is +77
4/20/21; 3:59 PM EST = +76; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
4/20/21; 3:47 PM EST = +92; signal line is +76
4/20/21; 12:46 PM EST = +76; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
4/20/21; 11:54 AM EST = +92; signal line is +76
4/20/21; 11:22 AM EST = +76; signal line is +75
4/18/21; 7:00 PM EST = +92; signal line is +75
4/16/21; 10:00 AM EST = +92; signal line is +73
4/16/21; 9:00 AM EST = +90; signal line is +72
4/11/21; 7:00 PM EST = +90; signal line is +70
4/4/21; 7:00 PM EST = +90; signal line is +69
4/2/21; 9:00 AM EST = +90; signal line is +68
3/31/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +90; signal line is +64
3/30/21; 10:00 AM EST = +90; signal line is +64

3/28/21; 7:00 PM EST = +82; signal line is +62
3/26/21; 10:00 AM EST = +82; signal line is +61
3/26/21; 9:52 AM EST = +80; signal line is +59
3/25/21; 11:21 AM EST = +64; signal line is +57
3/25/21; 10:55 AM EST = +50; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
3/24/21; 3:52 PM EST = +64; signal line is +54
3/24/21; 9:47 AM EST = +80; signal line is +52
3/24/21; 9:37 AM EST = +64; signal line is +49
3/23/21; 11:46 AM EST = +80; signal line is +47
3/21/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +44
3/19/21; 10:26 AM EST = +64; signal line is +43
3/19/21; 10:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +41
3/19/21; 9:57 AM EST = +64; signal line is +40
3/19/21; 9:46 AM EST = +48; signal line is +38
3/18/21; 9:58 AM EST = +64; signal line is +37
3/17/21; 9:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +36
3/15/21; 3:59 PM EST = +80; signal line is +33
3/15/21; 2:34 PM EST = +64; signal line is +32
3/15/21; 1:15 PM EST = +80; signal line is +31
3/15/21; 9:56 AM EST = +64; signal line is +30
3/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +29
3/12/21; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
3/12/21; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
3/11/21; 11:04 AM EST = +64; signal line is +28
3/11/21; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27
3/10/21; 3:19 PM EST = +32; signal line is +27
3/10/21; 2:39 PM EST = +48; signal line is +28
3/10/21; 10:03 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
3/10/21; 9:53 AM EST = +48; signal line is +29
3/9/21; 10:03 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29; go long 3882; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +3.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +4.0%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2021 = +7.0%)

Sunday, March 28, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bears made a run at it on Thursday morning but performed a faceplant. The Federal Reserve and Congress keep promising limitless money. The Fed places its knee on the neck of volatility holding it low to the ground so stocks catapult higher. The SPX launched 22 points in the last 8 minutes of trading on Friday. Chips are pushed higher which also carries the broad stock market higher along with lower volatility. The bull orgy party sends the SPX to 3974.54 a new all-time closing high by only 42 pennies although it fell short of setting a new record intraday high.

You always dance with the lady that you brought to the party, no gentlemen would do otherwise, so the likely culprits that would precipitate a reversal would be weaker chips and higher volatility. The copper joy may also end. Bears need SOX below 2995, CPER below 24.28 (a drop in copper futures of about -3.2%) and/or VIX above 22.75.

Any 1 of the 3 parameters flipping bearish will immediately halt the rally in stocks and the caution flag would be out. If any 2 of the three parameters flip bearish, the imminent turn to the short side would be in play, and Keybot will be champing at the bit to go short, and, if the SPX loses 3917 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. Also, if 1 parameter flips bearish, and then back to bullish, then maybe a half hour or hour later back to bearish again, rinse and repeat, oscillating above and below the bull-bear numbers, jogging, that would hint that the bears are trying to set things up short. Also, if all 3 parameters fail, the quant will likely immediately flip short.

Bulls are on easy street cruising higher. If the 3 parameters remain bullish the bulls will kick back and enjoy a stock market that floats higher. The rally in utilities is hugely important for the stock market. It takes the intermediate and long-term stock market weakness somewhat off the table. Bears need UTIL below 857.26 (now at 874). If UTIL loses 857, consider that to be an extremely negative development. If UTIL remains above 857, it is looking good for bulls through summer.

Keybot prints 3 pre-scheduled numbers this week Tuesday morning, hump day evening and Friday morning. The month of March ends on Wednesday, EOM, and the first quarter ends, EOQ1, so the year is already 25% over with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing and the US fourth wave underway. Chips, volatility, copper and utes are the only parameters impacting stock market direction currently. You can sprinkle in some commodities as well.

4/4/21; 7:00 PM EST =
4/2/21; 9:00 AM EST =
3/31/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/21; 10:00 AM EST =
3/28/21; 7:00 PM EST = +82; signal line is +62
3/26/21; 10:00 AM EST = +82; signal line is +61
3/26/21; 9:52 AM EST = +80; signal line is +59
3/25/21; 11:21 AM EST = +64; signal line is +57
3/25/21; 10:55 AM EST = +50; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
3/24/21; 3:52 PM EST = +64; signal line is +54

Thursday, March 25, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo is potentially set up to flip short. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 10 points above the signal line.

Bulls desperately need to pull the chips back into their camp. Bulls need SOX above 2979 to save the day, stop the selling, and resume the rally.

Bears need either weaker utilities, weaker copper or higher volatility. Bears need UTIL below 855.10, CPER below  24.15 and/or VIX above 22.87, respectively. If any 1 of these 3 parameters flip bearish, and the SPX drops below 3889 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The SPX begins at 3889 and S&P futures are tanking -15 points.

Copper futures need to fall about -2.8% to cause serious stock market selling and the red metal is down -2.2% right now. The bears are pushing. The VIX is at 21.87 and rising, no, check that 21.89. It looks like the bears are going to make a run for it at the opening bell. Will dip buyers show up or will the market be flushed lower?

Watch utilities, copper, volatility and semiconductors; these are the only four parameters that matter today. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.

3/28/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
3/24/21; 3:52 PM EST = +64; signal line is +54
3/24/21; 9:47 AM EST = +80; signal line is +52
3/24/21; 9:37 AM EST = +64; signal line is +49
3/23/21; 11:46 AM EST = +80; signal line is +47
3/21/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +44
3/19/21; 10:26 AM EST = +64; signal line is +43
3/19/21; 10:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +41
3/19/21; 9:57 AM EST = +64; signal line is +40
3/19/21; 9:46 AM EST = +48; signal line is +38
3/18/21; 9:58 AM EST = +64; signal line is +37
3/17/21; 9:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +36
3/15/21; 3:59 PM EST = +80; signal line is +33

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. As you can see, the fight is at the UTIL 856.13 bull/bear line in the sand previously mentioned. Price is at 858.93 right now after testing the critical 856.13 area. UTIL punched up through 856.13 which creates the broad stock market joy. Also, the chips. SOX jumps above its 2985 line in the sand creating a happy tech sector and stock market. The bulls are running with the algo number 47 points above the signal line.

The S&P 500 prints a new all-time high at 3981.04.

Bears got nothing unless UTIL 856.13 fails and/or if SOX fails below 2985 and/or if VIX pops above 23.96. Any 1 of these 3 will stop the upside rally.

Utilities are a key tell on the intermediate term so if UTIL loses 856, view that as extremely bearish for the stock market. If UTIL then drops lower and loses the 825-826 level, it would be lights-out for stocks.

UTIL is at 858.80. SOX is at 3104. VIX is at 19.37. Utes would likely be first to fall so kick back until UTIL 856.13 occurs; then you will know trouble is starting.

3/21/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/21; 9:00 AM EST =
3/15/21; 3:59 PM EST = +80; signal line is +33
3/15/21; 2:34 PM EST = +64; signal line is +32
3/15/21; 1:15 PM EST = +80; signal line is +31
3/15/21; 9:56 AM EST = +64; signal line is +30
3/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +29

Monday, March 15, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 19 points above the signal line. Chips are weak despite the stock market moving higher. Bulls need stronger semiconductors and utilities to keep the upside party going. Bears need weaker utilities and retail stocks and higher volatility.

Bulls need UTIL above 856 and/or SOX above 2978 and the upside party will be in full swing.

Bears need UTIL below 825.55 which will usher-in stock market misery. Bears also need RTH below 157.45 and VIX above 23.96. VIX is trading at 21.77 right now. If any 1 of the 3 turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play. If 2 of the 3 flip bearish and the SPX drops below 3915 trending lower, Keybot would likely flip short.

The quant prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning. 

3/21/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/21; 9:00 AM EST =
3/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +29
3/12/21; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
3/12/21; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
3/11/21; 11:04 AM EST = +64; signal line is +28

Friday, March 12, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and the algorithm remains active this week. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 36 points above the signal line. The Shiny Happy People keep buying stocks with reckless abandon. Chips and retail stocks are pumped higher to created the buoyant stock market.

For bulls to keep moving higher, they need stronger utilities. Bulls have their chests puffed-out since most parameters are in the bull camp and the happy sentiment is strong and euphoric.

Bears need weaker chips, retail stocks and utilities while pushing volatility higher. Bears likely need at least 3 of the 4 to flip into the bear camp to flip Keybot short. Watch the SOX 2980 and RTH 157.45 lines in the sand. If they fail, it tells you the bears are growling and want to have another go at taking the market down. VIX 23.98 will also signal trouble ahead. VIX is trading at 22.50 a couple hours before the opening bell, only one handle away, with S&P futures down -16.

Keybot prints the pre-scheduled number this morning shortly after the opening bell. 

3/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/12/21; 10:00 AM EST =
3/11/21; 11:04 AM EST = +64; signal line is +28
3/11/21; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27
3/10/21; 3:19 PM EST = +32; signal line is +27
3/10/21; 2:39 PM EST = +48; signal line is +28
3/10/21; 10:03 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
3/10/21; 9:53 AM EST = +48; signal line is +29
3/9/21; 10:03 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29; go long 3882; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +3.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +4.0%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2021 = +7.0%)

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 3882. Bulls pump utilities higher and drag volatility lower creating a big stock market rally. The bulls are in charge but the algo number is only a measly 3 points above the signal line.

Bears need higher volatility or they got nothing. VIX is trading at 23.49 right now with S&P futures up +4, about 3 hours in front of the bell on Wall Street. Bears need VIX above 24.05 to create stock market weakness so this is only 56 cents away. The stock market remains a toss-up moving through choppy slop.

UTIL regaining the critical 825.55 line in the sand, the trap-door is bigtime. This failure told you that the selloff in stocks was long lasting many weeks if not months ahead. The bulls knew the seriousness of the situation so they pumped UTIL to 831 to save the day. However, that is only a 5 point difference which is nothing. If UTIL becomes soggy again, and the trap-door at 825.55 opens again, she is likely not coming back. It will tell you that the path ahead is going to become very rocky. Conversely, if UTIL remains above 825.55, it will be Fed wine and roses all day long every day forward.

If either UTIL or VIX turn bearish, either one would do, and the SPX drops below 3852, Keybot will likely whipsaw back to the short side

Bulls will benefit from stronger retail stocks such as AMZN. Bulls also win with higher chips. It will be off to the races for stocks if SOX moves above 2975, if not, that tells you that trouble will be returning. 

Bears will benefit from weaker copper. Bulls win with RTH above 157.25 and/or SOX above 2975 while bears win with VIX above 24.05 and UTIL below 825.55.

On the last trade, which ran for a couple weeks, the quant program lost a percent and the actual trading generated by the quant lost -2.5%. On the year, the benchmark S&P 500, which is the US stock market, the SPX, is up +3.4%. The quant program is up +4% and the actual trading is up +7% on the year. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's. Watch for a potential whipsaw back to the short side. 

3/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/12/21; 10:00 AM EST =
3/9/21; 10:03 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29; go long 3882; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +3.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +4.0%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2021 = +7.0%)
3/9/21; 9:56 AM EST = +32; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
3/9/21; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +31
3/8/21; 3:57 PM EST = +2; signal line is +33
3/8/21; 12:58 PM EST = +18; signal line is +35
3/7/21; 7:00 PM EST = +2; signal line is +37
3/5/21; 9:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +39
3/3/21; 3:58 PM EST = +2; signal line is +42
3/3/21; 2:58 PM EST = +18; signal line is +44
3/3/21; 2:27 PM EST = +2; signal line is +47
3/3/21; 7:34 AM EST = +18; signal line is +49
3/1/21; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +51
2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +51
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +52
2/25/21; 11:52 AM EST = +18; signal line is +53
2/25/21; 11:43 AM EST = +32; signal line is +54
2/24/21; 10:21 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 9:41 AM EST = +34; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 9:16 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 8:50 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 1:18 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +51; go short 3849; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +2.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +4.9%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2021 = +9.5%)

Sunday, March 7, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears are in charge of the stock market direction currently with the algo number 35 points below the signal line. It is surprising with the rally on Friday that the algo number did not gain ground higher. Bears need weaker banks and copper to create more downside pressure. These two sectors are very strong.

The US Senate approves the $1.9 trillion Christmas package so the week ahead will either show upside celebration or a sell-the-news event, or both.

Volatility, chips and utes are the Three Stooges controlling the stock market show right now. Bulls need either VIX below 24.20, SOX above 2985 and/or UTIL above 824.30. All three are in striking range and if the three flip the model will likely flip long immediately. You can gauge the strength in the stock market with these parameters.

If all three remain bearish and the banks and copper weaken, the next big leg lower in the stock market will begin. If 1 of the 3 parameters turn bullish, any one would do, the stock market selling will immediately stop and stocks will stabilize. Consider the caution flag out if this occurs. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, and that would likely be vol and semi's, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play and if the SPX moves above 3852 trending higher, Keybot will likely flip long. As mentioned, if all 3 parameters turn bullish, Keybot will likely flip long immediately.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The beat goes on.

3/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/12/21; 10:00 AM EST =
3/7/21; 7:00 PM EST = +2; signal line is +37
3/5/21; 9:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +39
3/3/21; 3:58 PM EST = +2; signal line is +42
3/3/21; 2:58 PM EST = +18; signal line is +44
3/3/21; 2:27 PM EST = +2; signal line is +47
3/3/21; 7:34 AM EST = +18; signal line is +49
3/1/21; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +51

Monday, March 1, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after a wild snap-back rally to begin the week. Volatility drops so stocks pop. VIX fell through the key 24.21 bull-bear line in the sand so the bulls throw confetti.

Utilities are jammed higher but bulls are unable to push UTIL back up through the trap-door at 824.20. Also, the bull party was in full swing but retail stocks decided to stay in the bear camp with RTH remaining under 158.80.

So the stage remains set. If either UTIL or RTH turn bullish, either one would do, consider the imminent turn to the bull side to be in play and if SPX then runs above 3915 heading higher, Keybot will likely flip long. Tuesday is a huge day.

Bears need VIX above 24.21 or they got nothing. Bears must wrestle the Fed's jackboot from Uncle Vix's throat and allow VIX to jump up which would send stocks lower.

Thus, the bears path to victory is higher volatility and VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. The bulls need higher utilities and/or retail stocks (think AMZN) to carry the stock market to victory and flip the model to the long side.

Volatility, retail stocks and utilities are all that matter; they alone dictate stock market direction for Tuesday.

3/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
3/1/21; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +51
2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +51

Sunday, February 28, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the utilities trap door opens and a big sucking sound is heard. Hopefully, yinz had your helmets on. The stock market works itself into frenzy, it builds, it builds, and then the crescendo. The bears are in charge of the stock market direction with the algo number 33 points below the signal line. February ends and March begins.

The failure in the utilities is serious business. It tells you whether the pullback in stocks, that should begin anytime now, has long-lasting legs, or not. The failure of UTIL at the 829-ish level is a huge stake through the heart of the US stock market and forecasts major downside in the weeks and months forward. Bulls need utes to recover pronto.

The bulls and bears have drawn the lines in the sand for the war ahead. The bears take stocks lower with weaker retail stocks (think AMZN), weaker utilities and higher volatility is their general. The bulls are trying to stop the carnage with stronger chips, stronger banks and stronger copper is their general.

Bears need SOX below 2985 and the stock market takes another leg lower. Bears need XLF below 30.50 and that will cause a selloff in equities. Bears need CPER below 23.00 to cause market mayhem. SOX is at 3068 so focus on that as a key market signal for Monday. Chips in general will dictate the path forward. If semiconductors are weak pre-market, bears are going to slash. Bulls will be happy if they see buoyant semi's.

Bulls need VIX below 24.20 to signal a stop to the stock market selling. Bulls need RTH above 159 and UTIL above 821. Bulls likely need at least 2 of the 3 parameters to flip the stock market long. 

It appears to be a game of chips versus volatility; bears need to stab semi's in the belly while bulls need to tackle Uncle Vix and keep him down with their jackboots on his throat.

Now we see what the bears got. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

3/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +51
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +52
2/25/21; 11:52 AM EST = +18; signal line is +53
2/25/21; 11:43 AM EST = +32; signal line is +54
2/24/21; 10:21 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side. The bears are in charge with the algo number 5 points below the signal line. Only three parameters matter; volatility, retail stocks and utilities.

Bears need VIX above 24.14 and stocks will fall apart. If UTIL loses 821.49, the stock market will go into free fall. Crash helmets are required.

Bulls need RTH above 159.57 and the upside stock market party is on. The selling in equities will immediately stop. If RTH moves above 159.57, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX moves above 3929 trending higher, Keybot will likely flip long. The SPX begins at 3925 so bulls only need 4 or 5 points in the futures.

It is a very fascinating juncture on top of all the odd price action already occurring the last couple months and more. These are special times and one of these days may be a very special day. It is a game of pennies with the parameters so either side can win in tomorrow's (Thursday) trade. VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. 

2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/24/21; 10:21 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 9:41 AM EST = +34; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 9:16 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 8:50 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 1:18 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short this morning at SPX 3849 after volatility spikes higher. Retail stocks add extra downside fuel but by the end of the day volatility drops so stocks pop. The bears are in control of stock market direction but the algo number is only 4 measly points below the signal line. Bears will have to do better than that.

Bears need VIX above 24.17 or they got buptkis. Bears will also create carnage if UTIL loses 821.50 and/or SOX below 2985.

Bulls need stronger retail stocks and the selling will be over. Bulls need RTH above 159.77 to signal the all-clear for equities.

The battle is volatility versus retail stocks. If VIX pops above 24.17, the downside selling begins in force. If SOX loses 2985, the bottom falls out. If RTH moves above 159.77, bulls are fine and stocks will recover.

On the last trade, the algo program gains +2% and the actual trading gains +4%. On the year, which is only 7 weeks old, the S&P 500 benchmark index, the US stock market, is up +3%. The quant program is up +5% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +10%. Quick, Harry, pull the plug for Keybot out of the wall. That's +10% so let's go to the beach for the next 10 months. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining n the 2x leveraged ETF's.

Powell testifies before the House tomorrow; he flapped dovish wings today as expected and saved the stock market off the lows. The RTH is basically Scamazon stock so watch VIX from 3 AM EST on and see where AMZN is at pre-market and these two will tell you the story for hump day. AMZN is down marginally in late trading this evening.

2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/21; 1:18 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +51; go short 3849; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +2.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +4.9%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2021 = +9.5%)
2/23/21; 4:03 AM EST = +50; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
2/22/21; 8:39 AM EST = +64; signal line is +50
2/22/21; 7:35 AM EST = +50; signal line is +48
2/22/21; 3:58 AM EST = +64; signal line is +47
2/22/21; 3:06 AM EST = +50; signal line is +45
2/21/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +43
2/18/21; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +42
2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +41
2/12/21; 1:07 PM EST = +64; signal line is +40
2/12/21; 12:59 PM EST = +80; signal line is +38
2/12/21; 12:45 PM EST = +64; signal line is +36
2/12/21; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +34
2/8/21; 9:36 AM EST = +80; signal line is +33
2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +31
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +30
2/3/21; 10:47 AM EST = +52; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 10:32 AM EST = +38; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +29
2/3/21; 3:06 AM EST = +36; signal line is +29
2/2/21; 1:04 PM EST = +22; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
2/2/21; 11:43 AM EST = +38; signal line is +30
2/2/21; 11:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
2/2/21; 11:17 AM EST = +38; signal line is +32
2/2/21; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
2/1/21; 2:18 PM EST = +38; signal line is +34; go long 3779; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +3.0%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2021 = +5.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is 1 point below the signal line so the robot is in position to flip short as long as all the internal parameters latch after the opening bell. If the SPX drops below 3875, Keybot will likely flip short. S&P futures are down -14 with the VIX at 24.53.

VIX 24.17 is the bull/bear line in the sand. It tells you the market story today. The bulls need VIX below 24.17 to regain control of the stock market. Bears win big if the VIX remains above 24.17.

Bears need weaker retail stocks and HD just laid an earnings egg (price down). Bears need RTH below 159.80 and price is only 34 pennies away. RTH turning bearish will guarantee sustainable bearishness ahead.

Did you see the high drama with utilities yesterday? UTIL falls to test the critical 821.50 support, but bounces. The stock market could have crashed if it had failed and this is back on the table today. Expect at least a significant leg lower in stocks if UTIL 821.50 fails.

Bulls need lower volatility. Bears need SPX below 3875 to flip the model short which is on tap in the futures. A gap-down is not good for bears since it may trigger a timer that will not allow the quant to flip bearish for about 90 minutes.

It looks good for bears but Fed Chairman Powell speaks in a couple hours and he just picked-up his dove suit at the cleaners. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM EST.

2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/21; 4:03 AM EST = +50; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
2/22/21; 8:39 AM EST = +64; signal line is +50
2/22/21; 7:35 AM EST = +50; signal line is +48
2/22/21; 3:58 AM EST = +64; signal line is +47

Monday, February 22, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long in these historic stock market times. The week is off to an active start with the quant already printing two numbers. There must be excitement occurring under the surface. The bulls are in charge of the stock market direction with the algo number 17 points above the signal line.

VIX 24.24 is the bull/bear line in the sand. VIX is trading at 24-ish now after popping earlier. Bears need VIX above 24.24 to create market trouble. Bulls win if VIX remains sub 24.24. If stocks sell off but the VIX does not move above 24.24, the bears got nothing and stocks will turn around and rally.

Bears need UTIL below 820 which may send the stock market into free fall. Bears need RTH below 159.50 which will exacerbate a sell off.

Bulls need higher utilities and to send UTIL above 911 which is a tall ask.

Watch to see if the VIX jogs above and below the key 24.24 level. If this occurs 2 or 3 times today, that is a signal telling you that the stock market is ready to head south and the robot is likely getting ready to flip short.

If VIX simply moves above 24.24 creating market turmoil, watch RTH and UTIL. If either one of them turn bearish as well, any 2 of these 3 parameters would do, Keybot will likely flip short.  If any 1 of the 3 parameters turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be on the table.

The quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one tomorrow morning and the other on Friday morning. S&P futures are down -28 with the VIX at 24.00 about 3-1/2 hours before the opening bell on the East Coast.

2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/22/21; 3:58 AM EST = +64; signal line is +47
2/22/21; 3:06 AM EST = +50; signal line is +45
2/21/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +43
2/18/21; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +42
2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +41

Wednesday, February 17, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the epic stock market action continues. The quant has not printed any numbers as yet this week and the pre-scheduled number is tomorrow. The bulls are feeling good about the stock market comfortably ahead by 23 points. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3950.43.

The quant is tracking three key parameters that would help bears; UTIL 820, RTH 159.10 and VIX 24.22. If any one of the three fail, you will notice substantive selling in the stock market. If 2 of the 3 fail, consider the imminent turn to the bear side to be in play and if the SPX then drops below 3924, Keybot will likely flip short. The SPX begins at 3933 and futures are flat. VIX is at 21.17. If UTIL 820 fails, the stock market may crash.

The bulls need UTIL above 882 to prove that they can take stocks higher.

2/21/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/18/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +41

Monday, February 15, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 23 points above the signal line. The bulls are in charge of stock market direction. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3937.23 and all-time record closing high at 3934.83.

The quant is tracking utes, volatility, retail stocks and copper. Lower copper will help bears.

The bulls need stronger utilities. Bulls need UTIL above 881.76 and this number is in play all week. US stocks are not trading today due to the Presidents Day holiday. Trading resumes tomorrow morning. UTIL begins at 857.10. On Friday, UTIL lost the 858 palindrome creating the stock market weakness. During the last 65-minute trading block, the Fed saved the day jamming volatility lower sending stocks to the moon for a record finish, otherwise, stocks would have fell apart into the closing bell.

Bears can turn the tables on the bulls with UTIL below 821, VIX above 24.55 and/or RTH below 159. UTIL 821 is extremely important; if it fails, the US stock market may crash. VIX has a 19-handle so bears got some work to do to boost volatility higher. If 1 of the 3 turn bearish, consider the caution flag to be out. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play, and if the SPX then falls below 3906 trending lower, Keybot the Quant would likely flip short.

UTIL 882, UTIL 821, VIX 24.55 and RTH 159 are all that matters. You do not even have to watch the stock market. Simply watch these four parameters to determine the path ahead for equities. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Thursday morning. The bulls want to rock 'n roll all night, and party every day.

2/21/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/18/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +41
2/12/21; 1:07 PM EST = +64; signal line is +40

Friday, February 12, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and has been quiet all week but springs into life this afternoon.  UTIL failed at the 858 palindrome. This creates the stock market sogginess. And it is a strong failure. UTIL 821 is a trap-door in the stock market; if 821 fails, the US stock market may crash. This will be fun on tap next week. Markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day.

Bears need higher volatility if they want to growl. Bears need VIX above 24.55.

The SPX all-time record high this week is 3931.50.

2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/12/21; 1:07 PM EST = +64; signal line is +40
2/12/21; 12:59 PM EST = +80; signal line is +38
2/12/21; 12:45 PM EST = +64; signal line is +36
2/12/21; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +34
2/8/21; 9:36 AM EST = +80; signal line is +33

Thursday, February 11, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and the quant is quiet all week long, so far. The bears are sleeping. The algo is tracking volatility and utilities. Bears need VIX above 24.63 (now at 21.666) which would immediately halt the stock market rally.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3931.50 on Wednesday, 2/10/21 and new all-time record closing high at 3915.59 on Monday, 2/8/21.

Bears need UTIL below 858 (now at 871). For next week, the bulls need UTIL above 882 so it is going to have to start making a move towards this goal post. UTIL must be above 882 by 4 PM EST tomorrow, otherwise, it tells you that stocks will be weak come Monday. If utes rally today and tomorrow, it proves that the bulls got game. If utes languish today and tomorrow and begin slumping over, like Aunt Mildred after she eats too much cake, the rally is likely over. If UTIL falls through the 858 palindrome, the stock market rally is definitely over.

The bulls are in control. These are epic times. The price action remains erratic and unstable. Watch VIX 24.63 and UTIL 858 since they are the two rudders steering the stock market ship today.

2/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/12/21; 10:00 AM EST =
2/8/21; 9:36 AM EST = +80; signal line is +33