STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 26 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising. Volatility, copper, commodities and chips are all that matter. Doctor Copper is lying on a gurney receiving intravenous fluids.

VIX 13.80 is the bull/bear line in the sand so the bears appear to be comfortable at wreaking havoc beginning the new week at 16.52. Bulls got absolutely nothing unless they can push the VIX back below 13.80.

GTX 3685 (commodities), SOX 5372 (semiconductors) and RTH (retail stocks; Scamazon) 205.02 are key bull/bear lines in the sand that the quant is tracking currently. These Three Stooges will tell the tale in the days ahead. GTX and SOX are in the bear camp while RTH is in the bull camp.

Bears need VIX, GTX and SOX to  remain in the bear camp while dragging RTH below 205.02 to create stock market carnage and blood on the sidewalks of Wall Street.

Bulls need either VIX below 13.80, GTX above 3685, and/or SOX above 5372 to stop the stock market selling. Any 1 of the 3 will be enough to stall the down slide in stocks. If 2 of the 3 flip into the bull camp, the bulls will be in position to win back market leadership. Bulls are toast if volatility, commodities and chips remain bearish and weaken further. Bulls must hold the line with RTH 205.02, otherwise they will be slashed severely by the bear claws.

The chips failed on Friday creating the leg lower in stocks. Thus, watch SOX 5372 like a hawk. You can check semi names in the pre-market to gauge where the index is headed; also check SMH and XSD. The bulls need Jensen (NVDA) to spray paint a Cheerio's box black and wave it in the air telling everyone another new chip is on the way to save the stock market.

RTH only needs to drop about a half percent to create more stock market mayhem. AMZN is soiling the sheets dropping from over 200 to 180 in only 7 days, now at 183, teasing a -10% correction perhaps on its way to a -20% bear market. Amazon's trading in the pre-market will likely dictate where RTH goes after the opening bell.

There is likely an exciting week ahead and it will be interesting too see what the 1's and 0's do. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. Watch the chips and retail stocks.

A bear wants retail stocks and Scamazon to collapse to guarantee more stock market carnage. A bull wants the semiconductors to recover immediately and start rallying again to save the day.

8/4/24; 7:00 PM EST =
8/2/24; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/24; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/24; 7:00 PM EST =
7/26/24; 10:00 AM EST =
7/21/24; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +27
7/19/24; 10:24 AM EST = +1; signal line is +29
7/18/24; 3:39 PM EST = +17; signal line is +31
7/18/24; 2:45 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31
7/18/24; 2:10 PM EST = +17; signal line is +33
7/18/24; 1:52 PM EST = +31; signal line is +34
7/18/24; 12:37 PM EST = +17; signal line is +35
7/18/24; 11:15 AM EST = +1; signal line is +36
7/18/24; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +37
7/17/24; 2:26 PM EST = +31; signal line is +38

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short at SPX 5615 after yesterday's opening bell as volatility jumps higher. The failure of copper and commodities, and spike in volatility, creates the drop in the stock market. However, by the end of the session, the commodities recover. Chips also create negativity but they remain in the bull camp by a hair. The algo goes wild yesterday printing a dozen numbers including one pre-scheduled number.

Volatility, copper, commodities and semiconductors are running the stock market show.

VIX 13.73 is the bull/bear line in the sand with price at the 14.41 palindrome right now in real-time so this is a check in the bear column.

CPER 27.95 is the line in the sand and price is at 27.45 in the bear camp creating stock market negativity. Copper futures need to gain +1.8% to get the bulls back on track but copper is trading flat overnight. Check that; copper now slipping -0.5%. Dr Copper is puking in the bathroom.

GTX 3686.25 is the line in the sand and price is at 3689.59 a game of pennies. Commodities are a hair positive in the bull camp but flip a coin with this metric.

SOX 5385 is the line in the sand and price is at 5409 in the bull camp. If SOX loses 5385, it is lights-out for the stock market.

The bears need copper and volatility to remain in their camp while pulling GTX and SOX lower to create more negativity. The bulls need GTX and SOX to remain in their camp while pushing the VIX lower and copper higher. Flip a coin since 3 of the 4 parameters can change and flip-flop back and forth today.

On the last trade, that ran for about 6 weeks, a big bull run, the quant program and actual trading each gain +5%. For the year, the SPX is up a huge +18% with the bulls cheering that the party will continue all year long. The quant program is up +4% so far this year and the actual trading gains about +8% in 2024 thus far. The benchmark S&P 500 is outperforming the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant by 10 percentage points with half the year in the bag. Keybot exited SPY and entered SDS rotating back into the 2x leveraged ETF's since the whipsaw timer has expired.

VIX 13.73, GTX 3686 and SOX 5385 will tell the market story today.

7/21/24; 7:00 PM EST =
7/17/24; 2:26 PM EST = +31; signal line is +38
7/17/24; 2:11 PM EST = +17; signal line is +38
7/17/24; 12:38 PM EST = +31; signal line is +39
7/17/24; 12:13 PM EST = +17; signal line is +39
7/17/24; 12:02 PM EST = +31; signal line is +40
7/17/24; 10:11 AM EST = +17; signal line is +40
7/17/24; 9:53 AM EST = +31; signal line is +41
7/17/24; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +41; go short 5615; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +4.1%)(Actual results this trade = +5.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +7.5%)
7/17/24; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains long
7/17/24; 6:54 AM EST = +17; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/24; 4:39 AM EST = +31; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/17/24; 4:01 AM EST = +17; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/16/24; 9:36 PM EST = +31; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/15/24; 2:27 PM EST = +61; signal line is +46
7/15/24; 1:38 PM EST = +45; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/14/24; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +45
7/12/24; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +44
7/7/24; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +43
7/5/24; 9:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +43
7/3/24; 9:36 AM EST = +61; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 10:20 AM EST = +45; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 10:11 AM EST = +29; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
7/2/24; 9:59 AM EST = +45; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 9:36 AM EST = +61; signal line is +40
6/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +45; signal line is +40
6/28/24; 3:56 PM EST = +45; signal line is +41
6/28/24; 3:06 PM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/28/24; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/28/24; 9:37 AM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/27/24; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/26/24; 3:58 PM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/26/24; 3:47 PM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/26/24; 2:54 PM EST = +45; signal line is +41
6/26/24; 9:58 AM EST = +29; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
6/25/24; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +40
6/23/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/21/24; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/20/24; 9:39 AM EST = +62; signal line is +39
6/20/24; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/18/24; 3:42 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/18/24; 3:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/18/24; 11:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/16/24; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/14/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/13/24; 9:52 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/13/24; 9:39 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37
6/12/24; 2:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
6/12/24; 2:30 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35
6/12/24; 2:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
6/12/24; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +34
6/11/24; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
6/10/24; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32
6/10/24; 3:04 PM EST = +62; signal line is +30
6/10/24; 2:28 PM EST = +46; signal line is +28
6/10/24; 1:50 PM EST = +62; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 1:08 PM EST = +46; signal line is +26
6/10/24; 12:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26
6/10/24; 11:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 11:33 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 10:27 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
6/10/24; 10:10 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 9:38 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
6/9/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28
6/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
6/7/24; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27
6/6/24; 2:28 PM EST = +48; signal line is +27
6/6/24; 2:14 PM EST = +32; signal line is +25
6/6/24; 1:31 PM EST = +48; signal line is +25
6/6/24; 12:24 PM EST = +32; signal line is +24
6/5/24; 2:15 PM EST = +32; signal line is +24; go long 5339; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +11.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bull market party lives on, however, the robot is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number drops to +31 out of the gate this morning now 15 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move.

Copper and commodities fail this morning so the expectation was for the stock market to deteriorate. Instead, the SPX prints a new all-time high at 5667.20 and new all-time high at 5669.67. Go figure. Doctor Copper is lying on a gurney but nothing will stop stocks going to the moon. The bank earnings are joyous catapulting XLF skyward creating stock market bullishness.

Here is what matters; CPER 27.99, GTX 3686, VIX 13.72 and SPX 5639.

CPER (copper) and GTX (commodities index) are in the bear camp and should be creating a pall on the stock market. VIX is below 13.72 creating the bullish lift in stocks.

Whittle the action down to CPER 27.99, SPX 5639 and VIX 13.72.

Keybot the Quant will likely flip short tomorrow morning if the SPX fails below 5639 trending lower. This represents a 28-point drop in the S&P futures overnight.

If CPER moves above 27.99, all bets are off and the bulls will resume the upside in stocks. This represents a +0.9% rally in copper futures overnight.

If VIX pops above 13.72, the bears are growling bigtime and a drop through SPX 5639 would be guaranteed. Is all that clear as mud?

Bears win big with SPX below 5639. If copper futures rally more than +0.9% overnight, the bulls are back in biz and will be kicking sand in the bears face. If VIX spikes above 13.72, the stock market will begin falling in earnest. Lots of fun on tap for tomorrow; a decision is needed. That is a look at Both Sides Now. What side are you on? 

7/21/24; 7:00 PM EST =
7/17/24; 9:00 AM EST =
7/16/24; 9:36 AM EST = +31; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/15/24; 2:27 PM EST = +61; signal line is +46
7/15/24; 1:38 PM EST = +45; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/14/24; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +45
7/12/24; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +44
7/7/24; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +43
7/5/24; 9:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +43
7/3/24; 9:36 AM EST = +61; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 10:20 AM EST = +45; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 10:11 AM EST = +29; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
7/2/24; 9:59 AM EST = +45; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 9:36 AM EST = +61; signal line is +40
6/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +45; signal line is +40

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market drama continues. The bulls are in charge but only by a measly 5-point advantage that can easily flip back to the bear side at anytime.

Banks and copper continue running the show. Copper is bearish creating negativity in the stock market but a +2% rise in copper futures will signal that there is more upside ahead for stocks. Any negativity in copper futures will add nails to the bull coffin.

XLF 41.02 is the key bull/bear line in the sand for the banksters and is uber important. XLF begins the week at 41.11. You can watch it in the pre-market tomorrow morning to see what the story is but a failure through 41.02 spells big trouble for stocks.

If XLF loses 41.02, and the SPX drops below 5451 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If XLF remains above 41.02, the stock market will remain elevated, floating along sideways with a slight upward bias.

If XLF 41.02 fails, watch commodities, retail stocks and volatility. Bears need GTX below 3670, RTH below 203.60 and/or VIX above 13.86, respectively. All three are bullish now but if stocks turn sour, you can use these three parameters to see how deep the selling may be. If XLF fails, and GTX, RTH and VIX fail, stocks will be dropping bigtime and a -10% correction would be reasonable for starters with more to follow.

For Monday morning, focus on XLF 41.02 and the copper futures to gauge how the day will go. The week ahead is goofy with the July 4th holiday on Thursday and markets closed. The Jobs Report is on tap for Friday morning.

7/7/24; 7:00 PM EST =
7/5/24; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +45; signal line is +40
6/28/24; 3:56 PM EST = +45; signal line is +41
6/28/24; 3:06 PM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/28/24; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/28/24; 9:37 AM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/27/24; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/26/24; 3:58 PM EST = +45; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the roller coaster ride continues. Just call me The Roller. The bulls are in charge buy only by a measly 3 points. XLF 41.02 is the bull/bear line in the sand identified by the robot and price is ...... wait for it ....... no, you really should wait for it......... wait a bit longer ........ 41.02. As financials go, so goes the stock market and banks are trading soggy after the stress test results so it appears that XLF may fail at the opening bell tomorrow morning.

If XLF fails below 41.02 and the SPX drops below 5452, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. This represents about a 26 point drop in S&P futures so if you see this in the morning, and the banks are sh*tting the bed, you know the day will be ugly for stocks.

Weaker copper is providing bear energy. CPER must remain below 27.79 to keep the stock market negativity going.

Commodities and volatility are two other parameters the quant is now tracking. Both are creating bullishness in the stock market currently but if GTX loses 3670 or VIX pops above 13.89, there will be Hell to pay in the stock market. If banks fail, then GTX and VIX fail, you will see huge numbers to the downside with stocks.

The bulls simply have to keep XLF above 41.02 in the morning and they will continue to control the show. If the banks fail out of the gate tomorrow, you can picture the stock market stumbling backwards and beginning to fall down the cellar steps.

XLF 41.02 and SPX 5452 tell you everything you need to know about the US stock market. Easy-peasy.

The bulls and bears will face each other in battle tomorrow; just like the Civil War days when the blue battled the gray. A lonely harmonica playing Shenandoah echoes across the valley as the bears plot their attack strategy against the banksters and the bulls try to figure a way to keep the XLF elevated.

6/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/28/24; 10:00 AM EST =
6/26/24; 3:58 PM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/26/24; 3:47 PM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/26/24; 2:54 PM EST = +45; signal line is +41
6/26/24; 9:58 AM EST = +29; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
6/25/24; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +40
6/23/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/21/24; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/20/24; 9:39 AM EST = +62; signal line is +39
6/20/24; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/18/24; 3:42 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the big upside rally continues. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 8 points above the signal line which is nothing to write home about. Note how the signal line is dead flat at +38 and the bulls and bears battle it out 8 points above and 8 points below. One side or the other will win going forward.

Banks, copper and volatility are all that matter. The bulls pumped the banks yesterday to go into the Juneteenth holiday on a happy note.

Bulls need higher copper; it is the missing piece to their puzzle. Bulls need CPER above 27.96 to declare that stocks will keep growing to the sky forever.

Bears need lower financials if they want to growl. Bears need XLF below 41.16 to damage the stock market. If banks fail, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play. If XLF loses 41.16 tomorrow, and the SPX falls below 5472 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

If the bears begin growling due to XLF failing below 41.16, watch volatility. If the VIX moves above 13.86 the bears are in business and the downside will have legs. The bulls have only one task to keep sending stocks higher and that is to push copper higher.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning. Enjoy the holiday and stock market with a picnic at Itchykoo Park. It's all too beautiful.

6/23/24; 7:00 PM EST =
6/20/24; 9:00 AM EST =
6/18/24; 3:42 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/18/24; 3:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/18/24; 11:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/16/24; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/14/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/13/24; 9:52 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market drama continues. Apple, AI hype, inflation data and the Fed all hit home runs this week so traders trip over each other to buy stocks at the ask with both fists. It is interesting that the banks and copper failed after Pope Powell brought the tablets down from On High creating the upside orgy.

The banks and copper are running the show right now (if the Fed is waiting too long to cut and are making an error you will see it occur with the banks in trouble going forward).

The quant is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 8 points below the signal line. The internal parameters will not latch to permit the move yet. The bulls keep pulling the rug out from the bears like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown. Will tomorrow be different?

XLF 41.24 and CPER 27.99 are key bull/bear lines in the sand. Despite the stock market floating higher, banks and copper want to pull it lower and both are creating negativity under the surface. Keybot the Quant will likely flip short tomorrow if the SPX drops below 5403 and remains below. So take a Sharpie and write that number on your forehead. The SPX begins at 5434 so bears need a 31-point drop.

Bulls can only take stocks higher if they push XLF above 41.24 and/or CPER above 28. Either one will do and create a leg higher for US stocks into the weekend. If stocks are rallying but banks and copper do not turn bullish, the bulls got nothing and stocks should reverse and head lower giving-up any rally.

Thus, bears need SPX 5403 to sing a happy dance and flip the quant short while bulls need stronger banks and copper to continue the upside party. Shiny Happy People.

Happy Flag Day tomorrow. Happy Birthday to the US Army. And the Caissons Keep Rollin' Along. 

6/16/24; 7:00 PM EST =
6/14/24; 10:00 AM EST =
6/13/24; 9:52 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/13/24; 9:39 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37
6/12/24; 2:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
6/12/24; 2:30 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35
6/12/24; 2:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
6/12/24; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +34
6/11/24; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
6/10/24; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32
6/10/24; 3:04 PM EST = +62; signal line is +30
6/10/24; 2:28 PM EST = +46; signal line is +28
6/10/24; 1:50 PM EST = +62; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 1:08 PM EST = +46; signal line is +26
6/10/24; 12:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26
6/10/24; 11:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 11:33 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 10:27 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
6/10/24; 10:10 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 9:38 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
6/9/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28
6/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
6/7/24; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27
6/6/24; 2:28 PM EST = +48; signal line is +27
6/6/24; 2:14 PM EST = +32; signal line is +25
6/6/24; 1:31 PM EST = +48; signal line is +25
6/6/24; 12:24 PM EST = +32; signal line is +24
6/5/24; 2:15 PM EST = +32; signal line is +24; go long 5339; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +11.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side at SPX 5339 this afternoon. The choppy whipsaw action is nauseating but perhaps things will settle down after the Friday morning Jobs Report. Copper, retail stocks and banks are running the show. Despite the rally in stocks this morning, the algo was happy to remain short but tic, tac, toe, copper, retail, banks, and it was off to the races with a Caligula rally.

People are tripping over each other to buy stocks then run back to the altar to worship NVDA the golden bull. The bulls are back in charge with the algo number 24 points above the signal line. This morning it was 23 points below verifying the obscene choppiness. The plugs are pulled on many algo's since they cannot keep up with such horrible price action but Keybot the Quant continues to ride the bucking bronco.

Commodities are the only thing holding the stock market back so GTX above 3653 will create another strong leg higher in stocks.

Bears need to reverse the trio of joy today sending the banksters, retail stocks (AMZN) and copper lower, specifically, XLF below 41.22, RTH below 201.60 and/or CPER below 28.12. Any 1 of the 3 turning bearish will stall the stock market rally. Stocks will continue floating higher if the 3 parameters remain bullish.

If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bearish, any 2, then consider the imminent turn to the short side to be back in play. If all 3 reverse into the bear camp, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the short side. Do you got all that? There will be a quiz tomorrow. Everyone is waiting for the Jobs Report.

On the last trade that ran for a couple days, both the algo program and actual trading lose a couple percent. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up a big +12%. The Keybot the Quant program is down a percent on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +3%. Keybot exited SH and entered SPY. The whipsaw action is getting old. Whip It, whip it good.

6/9/24; 7:00 PM EST =
6/7/24; 9:00 AM EST =
6/5/24; 2:15 PM EST = +48; signal line is +24; go long 5339; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +11.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +2.5%)
6/5/24; 1:27 PM EST = +32; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
6/5/24; 11:43 AM EST = +16; signal line is +23
6/4/24; 3:06 PM EST = +0; signal line is +23
6/4/24; 2:47 PM EST = +16; signal line is +24
6/4/24; 11:03 AM EST = +0; signal line is +24
6/4/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +25
6/3/24; 2:37 PM EST = +32; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
6/3/24; 1:24 PM EST = +16; signal line is +26
6/3/24; 1:13 PM EST = +2; signal line is +27
6/3/24; 12:44 PM EST = +16; signal line is +28
6/3/24; 12:24 PM EST = +2; signal line is +29; go short 5247; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +4.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side at munchtime at SPX 5247. Commodities, banks and volatility jump into the bear camp creating negativity and causing the quant to flip short but, like Friday, the bulls pump the banks and the Fed places its jackboot on the throat of volatility to send stocks higher late-day. Commodities remain in the bear camp but copper is in the bull camp.

The quant is champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the long side with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. Hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line. Turn, Turn, Turn as Roger plays his Rickenbacker. The internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move to the long side so, for now, the robot remains short. The erratic markets are getting old. 

If the SPX floats higher tomorrow, above 5302 (+19 points higher on the S&P futures), Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the long side. Bulls need stronger retail stocks and commodities. Bulls need RTH above 201.50 and GTX above 3655 to create strong upside joy for stocks.

The bears must prevent the SPX from achieving 5302 with all their might. At the same time, bears must pull XLF below 41.22 and/or push VIX above 14.01 to create negativity in stocks.

If a gap-up move occurs tomorrow morning, say about 10 points up at the open or more, the robot will likely wait about 90 minutes before committing to the long side. Bulls will be much better off to slowly and steadily float higher to the SPX 5302 target rather than an immediate gap-up which would be suspect and trigger the gap-up timer.

On the last trade, that ran for only 3 trading hours, the quant program and actual trading each lose about a half percent. On the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up +10%, the quant program is up about +1% and the actual trading is up about +4% in 2024. Keybot exited QLD and entered SH dropping into the 1x non-leveraged ETF's due to the whipsaw action. Risk must me minimized due to the erratic price action. The 1x ETF's remain in play for the next 30 days.

6/9/24; 7:00 PM EST =
6/7/24; 9:00 AM EST =
6/3/24; 2:37 PM EST = +32; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
6/3/24; 1:24 PM EST = +16; signal line is +26
6/3/24; 1:13 PM EST = +2; signal line is +27
6/3/24; 12:44 PM EST = +16; signal line is +28
6/3/24; 12:24 PM EST = +2; signal line is +29; go short 5247; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +4.2%)
6/3/24; 11:30 AM EST = +16; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
6/3/24; 9:42 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31
6/2/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +46; signal line is +32
5/31/24; 3:54 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32; go long 5266; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.8%; Actual results for 2024 = +4.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side with minutes to go in the trading week at SPX 5266. The late-day orgy rally higher was so obscene it made Caligula blush. Banks and volatility are all that matter and they provide the fuel to send stocks to the moon in the final minutes. The algo number is 14 points above the signal line.

The robot buy programs hit the tape for the last 65-minute period (2:55 PM EST - 4:00 PM EST) and the bulls never looked back. The banksters and Uncle Vix stripped off their clothes and started buying any stock with a heartbeat.

The bulls need stronger retail stocks, which means Scamazon, to prove that the upside is real. Bulls need RTH above 201.77 and the stock market will stretch higher. Watch AMZN for clues.

The bears need weaker banks, copper, and commodities, and higher volatility. Watch the bull/bear lines in the sand at XLF 41.17, CPER 28.09, GTX 3660 and VIX 14.03 (volatility moves inverse to stocks).

On the last trade that ran for only a couple days, the quant program is flat and the actual trading generated by the quant gains almost +3% (the 2x short tech ETF popped as tech stocks dropped). On the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up almost +11%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up a percent this year thus far and the actual trading is up +5% finally playing catch-up towards the benchmark. The Keybot the Quant robot continues underperforming the benchmark S&P 500 this year by 600 basis points. Keybot exits QID and enters QLD a 2x long tech ETF.

6/2/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/31/24; 3:54 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32; go long 5266; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.8%; Actual results for 2024 = +4.7%)
5/31/24; 3:03 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
5/31/24; 1:36 PM EST = +32; signal line is +33
5/31/24; 10:24 AM EST = +16; signal line is +34
5/31/24; 9:52 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
5/31/24; 9:41 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
5/31/24; 8:31 AM EST = +30; signal line is +36
5/30/24; 2:30 PM EST = +16; signal line is +37
5/30/24; 11:22 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38
5/30/24; 10:44 AM EST = +16; signal line is +39
5/30/24; 9:52 AM EST = +30; signal line is +40
5/29/24; 3:58 PM EST = +16; signal line is +42
5/29/24; 12:30 PM EST = +30; signal line is +43
5/29/24; 11:12 AM EST = +16; signal line is +43
5/29/24; 10:31 AM EST = +30; signal line is +43
5/29/24; 10:12 AM EST = +16; signal line is +44
5/29/24; 9:57 AM EST = +30; signal line is +44
5/29/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +43
5/29/24; 9:30 AM EST = +32; signal line is +43; go short 5278; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.0%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = +5.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +1.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at the opening bell this morning at SPX 5278. Volatility spikes higher and the banks are soiling the sheets creating stock market angst and lower prices.

Watch the VIX 14.03 bull/bear line in the sand with price now at 14.12 in the bear camp (volatility moves inversely to the stock market). Thus, if you want to see if the bulls have any strength whatsoever to fight back, they first need VIX under 14.03 to start a comeback rally. If VIX remains above 14.03 today, the bulls are toast.

XLF 41.12 is another bull/bear line in the sand you can watch the next few days with price at 40.76, giving up the ship, causing negativity in the broad stock market.

The bears are running the show with the algo number 27 points below the signal line. The bulls did not eat their Wheaties this morning. The bears are slashing at the bulls drawing blood. Will the selling have legs?

On the last trade, that ran for almost the month of May, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program gains +3% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains about +5%. On the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up nearly +11%. The Keybot program is up a percent and the actual trading is up a couple percent so far in 2024. Keybot the Quant exits SSO and enters QID.

The Google *ssholes are messing with the coding for the colors causing the bright colors. Jackasses. A-hole programmers.

6/2/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/29/24; 11:12 AM EST = +16; signal line is +43
5/29/24; 10:31 AM EST = +30; signal line is +43
5/29/24; 10:12 AM EST = +16; signal line is +44
5/29/24; 9:57 AM EST = +30; signal line is +44
5/29/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +43
5/29/24; 9:30 AM EST = +32; signal line is +43; go short 5278; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.0%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = +5.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +1.9%)
5/29/24; 8:31 AM EST = +32; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains long
5/29/24; 7:56 AM EST = +46; signal line is +41
5/29/24; 4:53 AM EST = +32; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
5/28/24; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
5/28/24; 2:32 PM EST = +30; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
5/28/24; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36
5/26/24; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
5/24/24; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +34
5/20/24; 3:45 PM EST = +44; signal line is +33
5/19/24; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +33
5/16/24; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +31
5/14/24; 2:39 PM EST = +60; signal line is +30
5/14/24; 10:19 AM EST = +44; signal line is +29
5/14/24; 9:45 AM EST = +60; signal line is +28
5/14/24; 9:37 AM EST = +44; signal line is +27
5/12/24; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +26
5/10/24; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +25
5/9/24; 9:45 AM EST = +60; signal line is +24
5/8/24; 11:25 AM EST = +44; signal line is +22
5/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +21
5/5/24; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +19
5/3/24; 11:18 AM EST = +44; signal line is +18
5/3/24; 10:18 AM EST = +28; signal line is +16
5/3/24; 9:30 AM EST = +44; signal line is +15; go long 5126; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +7.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -3.5%; Actual results for 2024 = -3.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long after the weaker than expected jobs report at SPX 5126. The upside orgy was created by the banks, chips and volatility. As previously mentioned, XLF 40.42 is a key bull/bear line in the sand and the bulls took it out so you knew the fix was in. SOX then jumped above its line in the sand at 4660 and VIX fell below the key 14.11 bull/bear demarcation line and the rest is history. Bullish traders and dip-buyers were buying any stock with a heartbeat goosing prices higher.

The algo number is 26 points above the signal line so the bulls are feeling very confident. Only in crony capitalism could society be happy that the jobs picture is worse because that will prompt the Federal Reserve to ease monetary conditions faster which will send stocks, that only one-half of the country own, with most stock held by the wealthiest elite, to the moon. What a pile of sh*t it is.

The US stock market direction is currently driven by 5 parameters; retail stocks (think Scamazon), chips, banks, volatility and commodities. Nothing else matters. Retail stocks are the only negative parameter of the five. The other four create the upside orgy on Friday.

Thus, for the rally to continue, retail stocks must hop aboard the bull bandwagon. All Aboard for This Train Is Bound for Glory. Bulls must push RTH above 201.80 to prove that the stock market rally has legs. Well, do you feel lucky, punk? Watch Scamazon. If AMZN rallies and sends RTH higher, the stock market is going to be in party mode.

Bears need SOX below 4660 and/or VIX above 14.11 and/or XLF below 40.42 and/or GTX below 3634. All four are creating stock market bullishness right now but they are dancing on the bull/bear lines in the sand without much wiggle room. The bears only need one of the four to flip bearish to stall the rally in stocks. If two of the four flip bearish and the SPX drops below 5101 on Monday, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short again. For now, the caution flag is out but if two of the four flip negative, the imminent turn back to the short side will be in play. Easy-peasy.

On the last trade that ran for only a couple days, the quant program loses a couple percent and the actual trading loses about -4%. On the year, the benchmark SPX is up about +8% while the Keybot the Quant algorithm is down a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the quant is down about four percent. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

The whipsaw slop continues. Obviously, the jobs report created the Friday orgy. RTH 201.80 tells you if the rally continues while sogginess in chips, banks and commodities, and a move higher in volatility, will send stocks south again. Time for a fun day at Itchykoo Park. The stock market is all too beautiful, or is it?

5/5/24; 7:00 PM EST =
5/3/24; 11:18 AM EST = +44; signal line is +18
5/3/24; 10:18 AM EST = +28; signal line is +16
5/3/24; 9:30 AM EST = +44; signal line is +15; go long 5126; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +7.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -3.5%; Actual results for 2024 = -3.5%)
5/3/24; 9:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
5/2/24; 3:59 PM EST = +14; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
5/2/24; 3:47 PM EST = -2; signal line is +11
5/2/24; 2:35 PM EST = +14; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
5/1/24; 3:58 PM EST = -2; signal line is +9
5/1/24; 1:28 PM EST = +14; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
5/1/24; 1:08 PM EST = -2; signal line is +7
5/1/24; 10:39 AM EST = +14; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
5/1/24; 9:36 AM EST = -2; signal line is +5; go short 5032; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -0.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +0.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short yesterday morning at SPX 5032 about where it sits this minute. The choppy whipsaw slop continues this year. The bears are back in control but the algo number is only 11 points below the signal line. Flip a coin.

The action is in the banks, chips and commodities. There are several moving parts but the chips are falling apart creating a pull lower in the overall stock market. Banks, however, are dancing on the bull/bear tightrope and can go either way so the bulls are remaining in the game. Same-o with commodities.

Drilling down, XLF 40.42 is the bull/bear line in the sand for the banks. Price is at 40.33 now helping the bears but only by 9 pennies. GTX 3634 is the bull/bear line in the sand for commodities. GTX is at 3658 now helping the bulls. Very simply, bears win big if GTX loses 3634 (you can keep an eye on GTX at stockcharts.com under symbol $GTX). Bulls win big if XLF moves above 40.42.

On the last trade that ran for only 3 days, the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant each lose -1.5%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about +6%. The Keybot the Quant algo program and actual trading are dead flat on the year thus far. Keybot exits SPY and enters SDS the 2x leveraged ETF since the whipsaw timer has expired.

Banks and commodities tell you the answer going forward. What I Am.

5/5/24; 7:00 PM EST =
5/3/24; 9:00 AM EST =
5/1/24; 3:58 PM EST = -2; signal line is +9
5/1/24; 1:28 PM EST = +14; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
5/1/24; 1:08 PM EST = -2; signal line is +7
5/1/24; 10:39 AM EST = +14; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
5/1/24; 9:36 AM EST = -2; signal line is +5; go short 5032; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -0.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +0.0%)
4/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +14; signal line is +4
4/30/24; 3:59 PM EST = +14; signal line is +2
4/30/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +1
4/29/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +0
4/28/24; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is -2
4/26/24; 3:59 PM EST = +16 signal line is -2
4/26/24; 11:03 AM EST = +32; signal line is -2; go long 5109; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +7.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +3.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long on Friday at SPX 5109 as the bulls stage a comeback rally. A New York Comeback with Lucinda and the Boss. The banks recovered days ago and last week the utes and the chips join the bull camp creating more upside joy. Utilities get cold feet into the closing bell on Friday but should again become joyous after Monday's open.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number 18 points above the signal line. This difference is nothing to write home about so remain vigilant for a potential whipsaw back to the short side. The bulls fought like Hell for several days to get over the finish line and flip the quant long as evidenced by the readout.

Utilities, chips, retail stocks (think Scamazon) and volatility are controlling US stock market direction currently. Chips are in the bull camp while utes, retail and volatility are in the bear camp creating market sogginess.

Bears need SOX below 4655 to regain control of the stock market. If this level is tested, and then price recovers for a little while, then price fails down through 4655, that likely tells you that the robot wants to flip short again. Bulls are in great shape with no worries if SOX remains above 4655.

Utilities were a bad omen on the stock market and that obviously came true, however, the real nasty and deep pullback in stocks did not have follow-through because utes recovered. UTIL 872.35 is a bull/bear line in the sand for the week ahead with price currently at 884.25 on the bull side. This is not reflected in the algo number as yet but will be after Monday's opening bell as long as UTIL (or DJU) remains above 872.35. A drop below 872.35 tells you that the bears have come to play and want the ball back. A drop below 852.54 any day in the week ahead tells you that the stock market is in serious trouble. Bulls have no worries as long as UTIL remains above 872 so watch it closely.

Bulls need RTH above 202.04 and VIX below 14.00 to provide super upside strength to the stock market rally. If you do not see these two parameters turning bullish, it tells you that the rally is weak and will likely reverse.

Thus, bears need SOX below 4655 and UTIL below 872.35 to begin growling again. Bulls need SOX to remain above 4655 and UTIL to remain above 872.35 while at the same time pulling RTH higher above 202.04 and VIX lower below 14. This is all you need to know for stock market direction in the days ahead. Easy as punch, er sweet as the punch as The Association sings Along Comes Mary.

On the last trade that ran for nearly a month, the quant program and actual trading generated by the robot each gain about +3%. For the year, the SPX benchmark pulls back about -3% over the last month now up +7% so far in 2024. The quant program is up a percent this year and the actual trading is up a couple percent. Keybot the Quant exits SH and enters SPY remaining in the 1x ETF's since the whipsaw timer does not expire for a couple more days when 2x leveraged ETF's will be available again. Carry On my Wayward Son.

5/5/24; 7:00 PM EST =
5/3/24; 9:00 AM EST =
4/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/30/24; 10:00 AM EST =
4/28/24; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is -2
4/26/24; 3:59 PM EST = +16 signal line is -2
4/26/24; 11:03 AM EST = +32; signal line is -2; go long 5109; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +7.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +3.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +1.5%)
4/26/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
4/26/24; 9:55 AM EST = +32; signal line is -6 but algorithm remains short
4/25/24; 3:42 PM EST = +16; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short
4/25/24; 3:24 PM EST = +32; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short
4/25/24; 10:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains short
4/25/24; 10:06 AM EST = +0; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short
4/24/24; 11:30 AM EST = +16; signal line is -6 but algorithm remains short
4/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is -6 but algorithm remains short
4/23/24; 9:46 AM EST = +16; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
4/21/24; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
4/19/24; 3:56 PM EST = +0; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
4/19/24; 2:44 PM EST = -16; signal line is -3
4/19/24; 1:09 PM EST = +0; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
4/19/24; 12:51 PM EST = -16; signal line is -1
4/19/24; 12:17 PM EST = -32; signal line is +1
4/19/24; 12:08 PM EST = -16; signal line is +2
4/17/24; 9:51 AM EST = -32; signal line is +4
4/16/24; 2:40 PM EST = -16; signal line is +6
4/16/24; 2:33 PM EST = -32; signal line is +7
4/16/24; 11:26 AM EST = -16; signal line is +9
4/16/24; 9:00 AM EST = -32; signal line is +11
4/15/24; 1:34 PM EST = -32; signal line is +13
4/15/24; 12:34 PM EST = -16; signal line is +15
4/15/24; 11:38 AM EST = +0; signal line is +17
4/15/24; 11:05 AM EST = -16; signal line is +18
4/15/24; 10:32 AM EST = +0; signal line is +21
4/15/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22
4/14/24; 7:00 PM EST = -16; signal line is +23
4/12/24; 10:25 AM EST = -16; signal line is +25
4/12/24; 10:00 AM EST = +0; signal line is +26
4/12/24; 9:37 AM EST = +0; signal line is +27
4/10/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27
4/9/24; 3:59 PM EST = +48; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
4/9/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
4/8/24; 2:06 PM EST = +16; signal line is +27
4/8/24; 1:57 PM EST = +32; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
4/7/24; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +30
4/5/24; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31
4/4/24; 1:58 PM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/4/24; 1:11 PM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/4/24; 12:38 PM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/4/24; 11:19 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/4/24; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/4/24; 9:49 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/3/24; 12:44 PM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/3/24; 12:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +33
4/3/24; 11:20 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/3/24; 10:18 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/3/24; 9:41 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/2/24; 1:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +33
4/2/24; 12:43 PM EST = +48; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 12:17 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 12:01 PM EST = +48; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 11:43 AM EST = +32; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 9:45 AM EST = +48; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
4/1/24; 2:22 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
4/1/24; 2:12 PM EST = +16; signal line is +28
4/1/24; 1:16 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
4/1/24; 10:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is +28; go short 5254; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.1%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 45 points below the signal line. The bears are eating the bull's lunch. Stocks fell apart on Friday and continue the slide on Monday. Banks and retail stocks failed creating the stock market selloff and then the chips failed yesterday afternoon sending everything down the rabbit hole. Let It Drop.

For the bulls to wrestle back control, the hooved ones will need banks, retail stocks and semiconductors to turn bullish. Bulls need XLF above 40.28, RTH above 202.80 and SOX above 4707. If any 1 of the 3 turn bullish (the most likely would be the socks), that will stall the selling and stocks will begin to stabilize but bulls have no hope until all 3 turn bullish again.

For the bears, weaker copper and commodities are needed but these have been running into the stratosphere. Simply watch the 3 parameters listed above and that will tell you the stock market strength in either direction. Easy-peasy.

The weak utilities place the broad stock market in a crash profile for the next couple weeks. That would be fun. You may say you Can't Believe We're Here but we are. Great guitar solo.

4/21/24; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/24; 9:00 AM EST =
4/15/24; 1:34 PM EST = -32; signal line is +13
4/15/24; 12:34 PM EST = -16; signal line is +15
4/15/24; 11:38 AM EST = +0; signal line is +17
4/15/24; 11:05 AM EST = -16; signal line is +18
4/15/24; 10:32 AM EST = +0; signal line is +21
4/15/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22
4/14/24; 7:00 PM EST = -16; signal line is +23
4/12/24; 10:25 AM EST = -16; signal line is +25
4/12/24; 10:00 AM EST = +0; signal line is +26
4/12/24; 9:37 AM EST = +0; signal line is +27
4/10/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27
4/9/24; 3:59 PM EST = +48; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
4/9/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
4/8/24; 2:06 PM EST = +16; signal line is +27
4/8/24; 1:57 PM EST = +32; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
4/7/24; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +30
4/5/24; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market choppiness and whipsaw slop continues. Did you take note of the drama with utes? The bears remain in charge with the algo number 15 points below the signal line.

The robot is tracking utes, volatility, chips and retail as the main drivers of stock market direction currently. Utilities and volatility are in the bear camp while the socks and retail reside in the bull camp. Each are pulling the broad stock market in their preferred direction.

The bulls come up short last week with the utilities with UTIL sitting at 870. Bulls need UTIL above 877.90-881.67 next week and will be rewarded with the stock market rallying if it happens. Pay attention to the utes out of the gate on Monday. The bulls also need VIX below the 13.31 palindrome, now above 16, if they want to rally stocks. Plain and simple, the bulls are toast going forward unless they push VIX back below 13.31.

If any 1 of the 3 parameters turn bullish (UTIL 877.90, UTIL 881.677, VIX 13.31; obviously, UTIL would tag 877.90 first if it happened), and the SPX runs above 5222, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

On the bear side, the furry ones are happy with UTIL below 877.90 and VIX above 13.31 and will try to keep it this way with all their might. Bears will create stock market carnage if SOX loses 4690, now at 4756, and/or if RTH loses 203.20, now at 205.77. Thus, watch for any weakness in semiconductors and/or retail stocks on Monday which will indicate that the blood is starting to flow on Wall Street. RTH is, in essence, Amazon, so pay very close attention to Scamazon going forward. Evanescence.

Thus, bulls need UTIL 877.90 and VIX 13.31. Bears need SOX 4690 and RTH 203.20. Choose your poison but, as Billy sings, there may be Poison in the Well. These 4 parameters tell you the US stock market direction for the coming days.

Also, if utilities remain bearish, it is an ominous sign. It means that any expected -3% to -5% pullback, or even -10% correction, in US stocks going forward will not occur. Instead, there will be far bigger losses of -10% to -20% for the stock market and perhaps more. Watch the Utes.

4/14/24; 7:00 PM EST =
4/12/24; 10:00 AM EST =
4/7/24; 7:00 PM EST =
4/5/24; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31
4/4/24; 1:58 PM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/4/24; 1:11 PM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/4/24; 12:38 PM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/4/24; 11:19 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/4/24; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/4/24; 9:49 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/3/24; 12:44 PM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/3/24; 12:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +33
4/3/24; 11:20 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/3/24; 10:18 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/3/24; 9:41 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/2/24; 1:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +33
4/2/24; 12:43 PM EST = +48; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 12:17 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 12:01 PM EST = +48; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 11:43 AM EST = +32; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 9:45 AM EST = +48; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
4/1/24; 2:22 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side at SPX 5254 this Manic Monday morning. As previously mentioned, utes and vol are all that matter. Pope Powell's jackboot slipped off Uncle Vix's neck so volatility jumps higher sinking stocks.

At the same time, utilities collapse shortly after trading begins. Utes make a comeback and regain one leg so they are trying to limp the bulls back into the lead. The algo number is 4 points above the signal line so Keybot the Quant is champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the long side. This year's chop suey is a lot like last year's.

VIX 13.21, UTIL 873.15 and UTIL 878.50 are controlling stock market direction currently. VIX is at 13.65 creating selling pressure. UTIL is at 875 creating negativity (below 878.50) but also creating positivity for stocks (above 873.15).

Thus, bulls win and the quant will likely whipsaw back to the long side if the SPX runs above 5264 trending higher. This is about 20 points above today's closing price at 5244 so watch tomorrow morning to see if the S&P futures are up +20 to signal bullish fun ahead, or not. Bulls will gather big strength if VIX drops below 13.21 and/or if UTIL moves above 879 heading higher.

The quant remains in the bear camp waiting to see what the bulls got in the morning or maybe during Tuesday Afternoon. Bears simply need UTIL back below 873 to usher in negativity and confirm that down is the path ahead for US stocks. If so, watch chips, copper and commodities which would create further negativity and deterioration in the stock market.

On the last trade that ran for only about 7-1/2 hours, the quant program and actual trading are flat. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up an euphoric +10% with the quant program and actual trading each down a couple percent. Keybot exited SSO and entered SH dropping down into the 1x ETF's due to the triggering of the whipsaw timer. The robot will remain in the 1x ETF's for 30 days to reduce risk due to the choppy whipsaw slop.

Easy-peasy. Bulls need SPX 5264 and UTIL 879 trending higher and VIX below 13.21 and dropping. Bears need UTIL 873 and trending lower. You never thought utilities could be so interesting, did you? Utes typically move lower on higher yields and visa versa.

4/7/24; 7:00 PM EST =
4/5/24; 9:00 AM EST =
4/1/24; 2:22 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
4/1/24; 2:12 PM EST = +16; signal line is +28
4/1/24; 1:16 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
4/1/24; 10:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is +28; go short 5254; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.1%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.9%)
4/1/24; 10:06 AM EST = +16; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
4/1/24; 9:39 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
4/1/24; 3:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +29
3/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +62; signal line is +28
3/28/24; 3:31 PM EST = +62; signal line is +28
3/28/24; 3:01 PM EST = +46; signal line is +27
3/28/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27
3/28/24; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27; go long 5249; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2024 = -2.1%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side yesterday at SPX 5249 as the quant's algo number explodes 34 points above the signal line. Traders are fed more unpalatable chop suey. This year is looking a lot like last year with the choppy whipsaw price action. Let's do the Twist, baby, like Chubby. Volatility drops so the bears are smacked in the teeth by a bull hoof. Pope Powell is sitting on Uncle Vix's head, like the Easter Bunny sitting on an egg, keeping volatility down on the floor so stocks can go up and everyone have a Happy Easter.

As the stock market makes new all-time record highs, the VIX is not dropping as would be expected. VIX is a touch above 13 when it should be at 9 to 11 considering the stock market. VIX should at least have an 11 or 12 handle. This divergence is important. However, what matters is the 1's and 0's and the quant identifies VIX 13.25 as the bull/bear line in the sand with price at 13.01 so bulls win and the bears fold like origami.

Buy programs entered in force during the last 65-minute trading segment yesterday at 2:55 PM EST (the day is divided into six (6) 65-minute periods). The robots were in charge executing big buy programs at 2:55 PM EST. Lots of moves are occurring here so watch 2:55 PM EST, give or take 5 or 10 minutes, to see if stocks take a sharp move up or down since that trend will likely maintain into the close. The market makers goosed stocks to get the +10.0% double-digit print to close out the quarter. Such is the crony capitalism system. Stocks typically rally the last couple days going into a 3-day holiday weekend.

During the late-day bull orgy, utilities, a major sector that has been lagging, leaps into action, like Popeye eating spinach, overtaking key levels. For the week ahead, UTIL 873.15 and 879.70 are uber important. Price begins at 882.24 above and bullish creating stock market joy. Bears need UTIL below 879.70 to stop the stock market rally and below 873.15 to reintroduce negativity. Bulls are fine if UTIL remains above 879.70.

For the week of 4/8/24, UTIL 881.67 and 879.70 (may be a few pennies higher or lower) are the two key bull/bear levels. Thus, UTIL must end the week ahead above 880-882 or there will be Hell to pay in stocks. The stock market is controlled by utes and volatility currently.

Bulls must keep VIX below 13.25 and UTIL above 873.15 and 879.70 to maintain the upside rally in the stock market. Bears need VIX above 13.25 and UTIL below 879.70 to get the downside rolling again. On Friday, 4/5/24 at 4:00 PM EST, UTIL must be above 880-882 or there will be trouble for US stocks going forward.

On the last trade, that ran during the holiday-shortened week, the quant and algo program each lose about a percent. For the year, with Q1 now cast in concrete, the benchmark S&P 500, the symbol SPX, the US stock market, is up +10.0%. Sound the Seven Trumpets! The four horseman of the financial apocalypse, the ECB, BOJ, PBOC and Fed, on the pale green horse, ride across the sky. The Keybot the Quant algo program and the actual trading generated by the quant are each down a couple percent on the year so the SPX is outperforming the robot by 12% in 2024. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO.

VIX 13,25 and UTIL (DJU) 879.70 tell you everything you need to know about stock market direction. The markets are Dancing in the Dark like the Boss and Courteney as the Big Man plays his sax.

4/7/24; 7:00 PM EST =
4/5/24; 9:00 AM EST =
3/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/28/24; 3:31 PM EST = +62; signal line is +28
3/28/24; 3:01 PM EST = +46; signal line is +27
3/28/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27
3/28/24; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27; go long 5249; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2024 = -2.1%)
3/27/24; 11:11 AM EST = +30; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
3/27/24; 10:28 AM EST = +16; signal line is +28
3/26/24; 3:59 PM EST = +30; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
3/26/24; 3:51 PM EST = +16; signal line is +28
3/26/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
3/25/24; 10:08 AM EST = +31; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
3/25/24; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +28; go short 5220; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +9.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 4220 at yesterday's opening bell so the choppy whipsaw slop continues. The robot is already champing at the bit to flip back to the long side with the algo number 2 points above the signal line.

Volatility is running the show these days. VIX 13.25 is the bull/bear line in the sand as identified by the quant and VIX is trading now, in real-time, at 13.06, no check that, 13.07. Thus, the bulls want control of the stock market back and the dip-buyers are helping out. Bears need 18 more cents higher in the VIX, otherwise, they got nothing and will fold like a cheap suit.

The bulls simply need to keep VIX sub 13.25 and trending lower and to send the SPX above 5229 to likely flip the quant long. S&P futures are up +21 so the bulls want the ball back so another whipsaw may be on tap after the opening bell. Interestingly, the pump higher in futures will likely trigger the gap-up timer and delay any flip to the long side by about 90 minutes. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, a potential flip to the long side may not occur, if it occurs, until after 11 AM EST. Time will tell.

On the last trade that ran for only a couple days, the quant program and actual trading are flat. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +9.4% this year a big start for the bulls. The Keybot the Quant algo program and actual trading generated by the quant are each down a percent so far this year. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

The VIX 13.25 line in the sand tells you everything. Bulls win below and bears above. Bears need weaker semiconductors, copper and commodities to get the ball rolling south for US stocks. For now, Fed Chairman Powell maintains his jackboot on the throat of volatility insuring that the US stock market remains buoyant and the crony capitalism system resilient.

VIX is at 13.06 so the bears need to eat their spinach and push volatility higher if they want Peter Cottontail to fill their basket with Easter eggs. The quant prints a pre-scheduled number this morning and another on Thursday morning. The first quarter trading ends on Thursday (EOQ1).

3/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/28/24; 10:00 AM EST =
3/26/24; 10:00 AM EST =
3/25/24; 10:08 AM EST = +31; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
3/25/24; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +28; go short 5220; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +9.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.2%)
3/25/24; 3:06 AM EST = +17; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
3/24/24; 7:00 PM EST = +31; signal line is +28
3/20/24; 3:29 PM EST = +31; signal line is +27; go long 5224; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +9.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 5224 after Pope Powell flaps dovish wings creating more record highs for stocks. Jerome has Uncle Vix in a headlock and then throws him to the floor. Powell lifts his pale green robe enough to keep his black jackboot on the throat of volatility guaranteeing stock market upside.

Recent days are a snooze-fest with the quant printing only pre-scheduled numbers until today when Pope Powell opened his mouth decreeing that stocks should rally more. Powell opened his arms releasing white doves as if it were a wedding.

Tomfoolery aside, the robot is tracking the VIX 13.31 palindrome as the key bull/bear line in the sand. In late trading today, VIX fell through 13.31 so it was off to the races with bullish traders buying with both fists. VIX 13.31 is the key stock market rudder currently. Very simply, stocks go up if VIX remains below 13.31. If VIX pops back above 13.31, the stock market will sell-off. Easy-peasy.

Utilities reman bearish with a weekly downtrend in place a harbinger of very bad things ahead for stocks (not a run of the mill -5% or -10% pullback but a -10% to -20% or more pullback). This window will likely remain open for a couple more weeks. Bulls need UTIL above the 874-882 range over the coming days and week or two to prove that more upside in the stock market can be accomplished, otherwise, it will likely indicate that the stock market is bigtime sick underneath with trouble ahead.

Commodities, copper, retail stocks, banks and chips are all in orgy town having a good ole time. Stocks are making record highs on the backs of these party sectors. Keybot is tracking SOX 4595 as the key bull/bear line in the sand; stocks would be toast if SOX 4595 fails.

So the bulls have a turn at bat again. The chop suey this year looks a lot like the whipsaw slop last year. It is obvious that the robot was idling along and markets were waiting on the Fed. Pope Powell rode out on his pale green horse today delivering more Fed wine for the punchbowl. Uncle Vix is trying to wrestle the Fed jackboot off his throat so he can get up off the floor again.

On the last trade that ran for a dozen trading days, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program loses a couple percent and the actual trading loses -2.5% benefiting by some weakness in tech stocks (the loss could have been worse). On the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up +10% and it is only March. The 'wealth effect' is in full force with the upper middle class and elite privileged out shopping, spending money and having a good ole time. The quant program is down a percent on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is down -1.5% so far this year a -11.0 percentage point difference in performance compared to the S&P 500 benchmark. Keybot has always redeemed itself from every deficit since it went on-line 15 years ago. Will it again? The quant exits QID and enters SSO remaining in the leveraged 2x ETF's.

All you have to do is watch the VIX 13.31 palindrome and it will tell you everything you need to know.

3/24/24; 7:00 PM EST =
3/20/24; 3:29 PM EST = +31; signal line is +27; go long 5224; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +9.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.5%)
3/20/24; 3:03 PM EST = +31; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
3/19/24; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +25
3/17/24; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +25
3/15/24; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +25
3/10/24; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +25
3/8/24; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +25
3/5/24; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +26; go short 5110; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +7.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +1.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bear side at yesterday's opening bell at SPX 5110. Volatility spiked higher in the early morning, and remains high, creating stock market negativity. VIX 13.68 is the bull/bear line in the sand. Bulls win below 13.68 and bears win above. VIX is trading at 14.04 in real-time so the bears have the bulls in a headlock as they struggle around the trading floor.

Pope Powell speaks today so that will create drama. Simply watch Uncle Vix today. If he can remain above 13.68, the bears will maintain the upper hand. If the VIX drops below 13.68 today, the bears will likely fold like a cheap suit.

Utilities, volatility, copper and commodities are driving US stock market direction currently. Utes are bearish and portend bad things coming down the pike. Volatility is described above.

For copper, the bears need CPER below 23.77 to prove they got game. Price is at 23.93. This represents a -0.7% drop in copper futures that are currently up +0.3% in real-time. Thus, bears need copper to drop -1% from the current price to usher in bigtime stock market negativity. Watch copper today to see if it pulls an intraday reversal to the downside, or not.

Commodities are also key with the bears needing GTX below 3482 to create doom and gloom. Price is at 3527 so about a -1% drop in commodities in general will create stock market negativity.

Keeping it simple, bears win going forward if copper and commodities weaken today. Bulls will win going forward if the VIX drops below 13.68.

On the last trade, that ran for almost 2 weeks, the quant program gains +1.4% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains +2.5%. For the year thus far, the S&P 500 benchmark index, the US stock market, is up a big +7%. Everyone, including the shoeshine boy and Uber driver, are bullish placing entire paychecks in NVDA, MSFT and index ETF's. For 2024 thus far, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program and the actual trading are each up about a percent. Keybot exited SSO and entered QID.

VIX 13.68 will tell you if there will be Shiny Happy People or if we are on the Eve of Destruction.

3/10/24; 7:00 PM EST =
3/8/24; 9:00 AM EST =
3/5/24; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +26; go short 5110; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +7.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +1.0%)
3/5/24; 4:20 AM EST = +17; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
3/3/24; 7:00 PM EST = +31; signal line is +26
3/1/24; 10:00 AM EST = +31; signal line is +26
2/29/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +31; signal line is +26
2/27/24; 10:00 AM EST = +31; signal line is +25
2/26/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25
2/25/24; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +25
2/23/24; 3:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +24
2/22/24; 2:21 PM EST = +34; signal line is +24
2/22/24; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +24; go long 5039; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +5.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = -3.9%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side this morning at the opening bell at SPX 5039. The upside orgy in stocks is so obscene it would make Caligula blush. How does it feel?

The quant wanted to flip back to the long side all this week. Monday was a holiday. The NVDA euphoria put things over the top today sending stocks into the stratosphere. Ground control to Major Tom.

But coming back down to Earth, the path ahead for the US stock market is dictated by utes and volatility. VIX 14.42 is the bull/bear line in the sand. Write that number on your forehead with a Sharpie. VIX begins trading, in the wee hours of tomorrow morning at 14.54, and will provide a heads-up on the day ahead. Volatility is in the bear camp now but only by 12 measly cents. Watch it like a hawk since bears win above VIX 14.42 and bulls win below 14.42.

The UTIL 838 palindrome is the key bull/bear line in the sand for this week and the bulls have managed to keep the utes buoyant now at 846. The stock market will drop if UTIL falls below 838 tomorrow and Keybot the Quant would also be in position to whipsaw back to the short side. That is easy enough to understand but the plot thickens.

The UTIL 838 becomes meaningless at 4 PM EST tomorrow and is replaced with 863.50 for all of next week. Thus, watch UTIL at the closing bell because a closing price below 863.50 spells big trouble for stocks next week. The bulls got work to do starting at 846 (bulls need a gain of 18 points in UTIL tomorrow to keep happy bull time going next week).

If UTIL drops below 838 tomorrow, and the SPX drops below 5039, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side. If UTIL remains above 838 tomorrow but ends the week below 863.50, Keybot the Quant will be itching to go short next week which could occur Monday or Tuesday.

Interestingly, the bulls better bring game tomorrow since they need both the VIX to drop below 14.42 and UTIL to rally above 863.50 to guarantee that the bull party continues next week; otherwise, the Nvidia punchbowl will go empty.

For the last trade that ran for only one week, the quant program loses a couple percent and the actual trading loses about -4%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, that is the US stock market, is up almost +6%, mainly on AI hype and the chip orgy and the expectation for an accommodative Fed. The Keybot the Quant algo program is dead flat on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is down a couple percent so far in 2024. It is another year of choppy, whipsaw slop. The quant exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

Bears need UTIL below 838 and SPX below 5039 to whipsaw short again. Bulls need VIX below 14.42 that will signal further upside in stocks into the weekend. If VIX remains in the bear camp and UTIL closes below 863.50 tomorrow, there will be Hell to pay in US stocks next week.

For now, the bulls rule and this evening they are planning ways to force Uncle Vix's head to the floor. The ole codger keeps popping-up like a beach ball underwater. Maybe he has a baby's brain and an old man's heart.

2/25/24; 7:00 PM EST =
2/22/24; 2:21 PM EST = +34; signal line is +24
2/22/24; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +24; go long 5039; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +5.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = -3.9%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.5%)
2/22/24; 3:06 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
2/20/24; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
2/19/24; 3:06 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24
2/18/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
2/16/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
2/16/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
2/16/24; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27
2/14/24; 3:18 PM EST = +16; signal line is +27
2/14/24; 10:56 AM EST = +2; signal line is +27
2/14/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +28
2/13/24; 2:07 PM EST = +2; signal line is +29; go short 4939; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +3.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.6%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.9%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +2.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side on Tuesday afternoon at SPX 4939 and remains short after today's relief rally. Volatility, copper, commodities and utes are all that matter. Nothing Else Matters.

Copper futures need to rally about +2% to help the bull case for stocks and this may be a hard sell. Keep an eye on it and if you see copper jump higher, the fix will be in and more upside in stocks ahead. The guess is that copper will remain in the bear camp creating a pall across the stock market but the robot only sees 1's and 0's so time will tell.

Volatility finally spiked. The corrupt Fed's jackboot slipped off Uncle Vix's neck so he rises up from the dirty linoleum floor. The quant is tracking VIX 14.59 as the bull/bear line in the sand with price at 14.38 in the bull camp creating lift in stocks (volatility moves inversely to the stock market). Thus, watch volatility tomorrow morning. If the VIX moves above 14.59 and remains above, the US stock market will deteriorate. Stock market bulls will be fine if the VIX remains below 14.59 moving lower.

Commodities are also dancing on the bull/bear tightrope at GTX 3461 with price at 3486 only a bushel of beans away. If commodities fail, it will be lights out for stocks.

Utilities are warning of bad things coming for US stocks. UTIL 860 is a key bull/bear line in the sand this week. Price is at 833 firmly in the bear camp creating weakness in the stock market. Next week, the 860 is meaningless and replaced with the 838 palindrome. This is why price is hanging around the 830's like the single office guys hanging around pretty Emily the new administrative assistant. Watch UTIL as the week ends to see if it finishes above or below next week's 838 line in the sand. If UTIL finishes below 838 on Friday afternoon, there will be Hell to pay in stocks come Monday morning. Bulls will have hope if UTIL finishes the week above 838.

Is all that clear as mud? Whittling it down, the quant likely needs to see either CPER above 23.50 and/or UTIL above 860 for the bulls to regain control of the stock market. This may be a tough row to hoe.

The bears need either VIX above 14.59 and/or GTX below 3461 to lock-in the downside for US stocks going forward. One turning bearish will be big trouble and both turning sour will send the bulls running for their lives.

VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. Check VIX in the morning to find out the path ahead. Check GTX after the US opens. Check UTIL on Friday at 4 PM EST and you will already know what is going to happen next week. Easy-peazy.

On the last trade, that ran for about 3 weeks, the quant program and the actual trading generated by the quant each gain nearly +3%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +3.5%, the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant are each up a couple percent so far in 2024. The robot exits SPY and enters SDS moving back into the 2x leveraged ETF's since the whipsaw timer has expired (the quant is taking on more risk).

It is Valentines Day so it is mandatory that you spend time with your pretty woman serenading her with Pretty Woman, practicing your growl. Mercy.

2/18/24; 7:00 PM EST =
2/16/24; 10:00 AM EST =
2/16/24; 9:00 AM EST =
2/14/24; 3:18 PM EST = +16; signal line is +27
2/14/24; 10:56 AM EST = +2; signal line is +27
2/14/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +28
2/13/24; 2:07 PM EST = +2; signal line is +29; go short 4939; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +3.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.6%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.9%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +2.4%)
2/13/24; 10:55 AM EST = +2; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
2/13/24; 10:44 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
2/13/24; 9:07 AM EST = +2; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
2/12/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
2/11/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
2/7/24; 3:50 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31
2/7/24; 12:17 PM EST = +18; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
2/7/24; 11:05 AM EST = +32; signal line is +30
2/7/24; 10:47 AM EST = +18; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
2/7/24; 10:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
2/7/24; 9:50 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
2/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
2/5/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
2/4/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
2/2/24; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
2/2/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
2/2/24; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
1/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +48; signal line is +28
1/30/24; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
1/28/24; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +27
1/24/24; 10:34 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27
1/24/24; 10:02 AM EST = +34; signal line is +26
1/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +25
1/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +25
1/22/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
1/21/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +25
1/19/24; 1:46 PM EST = +34; signal line is +25
1/19/24; 1:36 PM EST = +18; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
1/19/24; 12:38 PM EST = +34; signal line is +26; go long 4815; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = -0.3%)