Wednesday, October 28, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side. The bears are in control of stock market direction with the algo number 14 points below the signal line. Bears enjoy high volatility and weaker banks while bulls maintain market buoyancy with commodities, retail stocks and chips.

Bears need GTX back below 1731, RTH below 149.22 and/or SOX below 2263. You can gauge the depth of any stock market selloff by which and how many of these three parameters flip bearish. Scamazon is in the RTH so that would be a key failure and any weakness in chips will weaken the stock market. If stocks sell off but none of these Three Stooges flip bearish, the stock market will recovery and rally. If one turns bearish, stocks take a noticeable dip, if two fail, the selling is in your face and strong, if all three flip bearish, stocks will be falling apart to the downside with the blood flowing on Wall Street.

Bulls need to keep the commodities, retail stocks and chips in their camp while at the same time pumping the banks higher and volatility lower. Bulls need XLF above 24.66. Yesterday, the market goes as banks go, and they went lower so stocks went lower and S&P futures are currently down -50 points this morning. Bullish traders rising on the East Coast just soiled their sheets. Bulls need VIX below 27.01 and they got nothing until they bring volatility lower. VIX is currently trading and pops above 36.

11/1/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/27/20; 10:00 AM EST = +43; signal line is +57
10/27/20; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +57
10/26/20; 10:50 AM EST = +29; signal line is +56

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 3421 during the market hiccup. As always, remain vigilant for a potential whipsaw move today. Commodities and banks create the stock market softness but the late session rally brought the banks back from the dead. Bulls need lower volatility and stronger commodities. Bears need weaker banks, chips and retail stocks.

Bulls need VIX below 27.01 or they got nothing. Bulls also need GTX above 1730 and XLF above 24.68. XLF closes yesterday exactly on top of the 24.68 identified by the quant. As banks go, so goes the markets. Bulls will celebrate if XLF moves above 24.68 heading higher but bears will be happy and stocks will remain weak, and deteriorate, if XLF drops below 24.68 moving lower.  

Bears also need RTH below 149.22 and SOX below 2263 which would create market carnage. Yesterday, RTH came down to kiss the bull-bear line in the sand but price recovered allowing the late-day rally.

XLF dictates stock market direction, if it moves higher, watch VIX to see if it can extend the rally. If XLF moves lower, watch RTH and SOX for potential failures which would usher in serious stock market negativity.

On the last trade, that ran for 3 weeks, the Keybot program gains +0.7% and the actual trading generated by Keybot gains +1.4%. Keybot exits QQQ and enters SDS flipping back into the 2x leveraged ETF's since it has been over a month since the whipsaw. The stock market may be moving out of its choppy pattern. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about +6%, the Keybot the Quant program is up +22% and the actual trading is up +43%. Watch the banks. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning.

11/1/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/27/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/26/20; 10:50 AM EST = +29; signal line is +56
10/26/20; 10:32 AM EST = +45; signal line is +57; go short 3421; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +5.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +22.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = +1.4%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +42.6%)
10/26/20; 9:45 AM EST = +45; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
10/25/20; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +55
10/20/20; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +55
10/18/20; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/16/20; 4:10 PM EST = +59; signal line is +53
10/16/20; 10:00 AM EST = +73; signal line is +52
10/16/20; 7:25 AM EST = +73; signal line is +50
10/16/20; 6:54 AM EST = +59; signal line is +48
10/16/20; 6:46 AM EST = +73; signal line is +48
10/16/20; 3:06 AM EST = +59; signal line is +46
10/15/20; 3:25 PM EST = +73; signal line is +45
10/15/20; 4:30 AM EST = +59; signal line is +43
10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST = +73; signal line is +40
10/8/20; 1:55 PM EST = +73; signal line is +38
10/8/20; 9:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +35
10/8/20; 9:08 AM EST = +73; signal line is +33
10/7/20; 9:36 AM EST = +59; signal line is +30
10/6/20; 2:16 PM EST = +43; signal line is +30
10/6/20; 1:32 PM EST = +59; signal line is +30
10/6/20; 12:50 PM EST = +43; signal line is +29
10/6/20; 12:42 PM EST = +59; signal line is +29
10/6/20; 11:09 AM EST = +43; signal line is +27
10/6/20; 10:42 AM EST = +59; signal line is +27
10/6/20; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +26
10/5/20; 2:59 PM EST = +29; signal line is +25; go long 3399; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +5.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +21.5%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.0%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +41.2%)

Monday, October 26, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long as the new week of trading is set to begin. The bulls are in charge but only with the algo number 4 points above the signal line. Volatility is key and it moves higher this morning favoring bears. VIX is at 30-ish with S&P futures down -31. Bears need the VIX to remain above 27.19 while the bulls will throw confetti and sing happy songs if the VIX drops below 27.19.

Bears need weaker commodities, banks and chips to send stocks lower; GTX below 1730, XLF under 24.61 and SOX below 2250, respectively. If any one of the three turn bearish, and the SPX falls below 3440 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. The US dollar index is moving higher weakening commodities so that may be the crack in the foundation. The XLF is down -1.4% in the pre-market but bears need double that loss to create market mayhem.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning the other Friday morning. The EOM is Friday, Halloween is Saturday and November trading begins one week from today on Monday, 11/2/20; the day before the US presidential election on Tuesday, 11/3/20 (the election day always occurs on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November).

11/1/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/27/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/20; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +55
10/20/20; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +55

Thursday, October 22, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and does not print any numbers this week thus far except for the pre-scheduled number. The bulls remain in control of stock market direction although the algo number is only 4 measly points above the signal line.

Volatility is the key metric steering the market ship. VIX 27.24 is the bull-bear line in the sand. VIX is trading at the 30.03 palindrome, in the bear camp; a 30-handle. The stock market will only go up if the VIX drops below 27.24. If the VIX remains above 27.24, the bears will win going forward. A  move above 30.58 will flush the stock market lower.

Two key parameters to watch are banks and commodities. Bears need XLF below 24.55 (now at 24.68) and GTX below 1730 (now at 1759). If either one turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 3433 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. S&P futures are down -23 slipping away this morning as are European stock indexes. Watch the banks.

10/25/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/20/20; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +55
10/18/20; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +54

Sunday, October 18, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bull's momentum slips slightly. The bulls are in charge of stock market direction but the algo number is only 5 points above the signal line. Interestingly, on Friday, the important price action for the stock market occurred outside of the standard session hours. 

Volatility is in the bear camp with the VIX at 27.41 above the critical 27.02 bull-bear line in the sand. Stocks will weaken if the VIX remains above 27.02. Bulls will be on easy street if the VIX falls below 27.02.

Bears need weaker copper, commodities and/or banks, CPER below 18.50, GTX below 1726 and/or XLF below 24.50, respectively. If any 1 of the 3 turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX falls below 3480, Keybot will likely flip short. Copper futures will need to fall about -2.7% so the bears have their work cut out for them. Banks reported earnings last week so watch to see if any sogginess shows up in financials this week.

VIX 27.02 is the rudder steering the stock market ship. Another way for the bears to steal the stock market back away from the bulls is to keep jogging volatility above and below 27.02 during the Monday session. Each time that the VIX price jogs below and then back above 27.02 the signal line will move higher to eventually confront the algorithm number and perhaps set up the flip to the bear side. If you see the VIX price jog above and below 27.02 two or three times on Monday, take that as a hint that the stock market is ready to turn south. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning before the opening bell. 

10/25/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/20/20; 9:00 AM EST =
10/18/20; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/16/20; 4:10 PM EST = +59; signal line is +53
10/16/20; 10:00 AM EST = +73; signal line is +52
10/16/20; 7:25 AM EST = +73; signal line is +50
10/16/20; 6:54 AM EST = +59; signal line is +48
10/16/20; 6:46 AM EST = +73; signal line is +48
10/16/20; 3:06 AM EST = +59; signal line is +46

Friday, October 16, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in control with the algo number 13 points above the signal line. The algorithm is sleepy this week. Last week it was printing numbers like crazy. The bulls are cruising but weaker copper, commodities and/or banks would help the bears.

The bulls must push volatility lower to prove they can push stocks higher. Bulls need VIX below 27.02 and it is currently trading at 27.35. S&P futures are down -2, call it flat. Bulls will throw confetti and celebrate into the weekend if the VIX drops below 27.02.

Bears must keep VIX above 27.02. In addition, bears need weaker banks and must push XLF below 24.52. If banks fail, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Weaker copper and commodities also help the bears but they are at elevated levels. A stronger US dollar index would drive copper and commodities lower.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell. VIX 27.02 is the rudder that will steer the stock market ship on Friday.

10/18/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/16/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/16/20; 3:06 AM EST = +59; signal line is +46
10/15/20; 3:25 PM EST = +73; signal line is +45
10/15/20; 4:30 AM EST = +59; signal line is +43
10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST = +73; signal line is +40

Monday, October 12, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are on a rampage higher. The quant did not print any numbers today. Bears need higher volatility and weaker commodities and copper; VIX above 26.97, GTX below 1723 and CPER below 18.50, respectively. The algorithm likely needs to see 2 of the 3 to flip bearish to flip the model short and that may not be enough; one of the two may have to jog above and below the key number listed above at least once. If all 3 flip bearish, Keybot may flip short immediately.

10/16/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST = +73; signal line is +40

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as stocks continue higher on fiscal stimulus hype. The bulls are in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 33 points above the signal line a big margin. The quant did not print any numbers on Friday. The bulls are cruising.

Bears need higher volatility to stop the equity rally. Bears need VIX above 27.10 and it is currently trading at 25.59 up this morning along with S&P futures up +7 so one of them is wrong. Bears need weaker copper and commodities so watch the US dollar closely this week.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The stimulus bill news is moving stocks up and down. Traders believe a stimulus deal will occur after the election if not sooner.

10/18/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/16/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST = +73; signal line is +40
10/8/20; 1:55 PM EST = +73; signal line is +38

Thursday, October 8, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Slap. Thwack. Oooff. Those are the sounds from the shed out back as the bears are beaten to a pulp. VIX falls below the key VIX 27.16 bull-bear line in the sand so stocks take off higher. Three numbers print today with the bulls in charge and cruising along with the algo number 35 points above the signal line. Stocks twist higher.

Bulls are in good shape and simply need to keep VIX below 27.16. Bears must immediately push volatility higher and VIX above 27.16 to stop the stock market rally or they got nothing.

10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/8/20; 1:55 PM EST = +73; signal line is +38
10/8/20; 9:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +35
10/8/20; 9:08 AM EST = +73; signal line is +33
10/7/20; 9:36 AM EST = +59; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 29 points above the signal line. The bulls partying like its 1999. The bulls pumped copper out of the gate on hump day and stocks never looked back. FCX launches +7.4%. Any move in copper is exacerbated in that same direction by Freeport-McMoRan.

Oddly, volatility remains in the bear camp. This never happens. When the stock market is moving in a particular direction, volatility is always towards the front or the middle of the pack leading in that direction. Now the VIX continues scooping up the horse manure at the end of the bull parade. Something is wrong somewhere. Bulls need VIX below 27.18 to prove that the move higher in equities is real. If the VIX does not drop below 27.18, stocks will weaken and roll over going forward. VIX is trading at 27.84 with the S&P futures up +15. The bulls need another 66 cents lower in the VIX to prove that they can take stocks higher. Otherwise, they cannot.

Bears need to keep volatility elevated while pounding copper and commodities lower. The stock market rally is over if CPER drops below 18.33 and GTX below 1719. For now, the bulls are in charge but the caution flag remains out since the market price action is erratic and unstable.

10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/7/20; 9:36 AM EST = +59; signal line is +30
10/6/20; 2:16 PM EST = +43; signal line is +30

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Displaying Keybot the Quant Turns in 2020



The SPX chart shows the turns this year for the Keybot the Quant algorithm robot. Red is where Keybot went short and green is where it went long. The big money-maker's this year thus far was long in January, then short in February and March, then long in late May-early June, long in July, long in August and short in September.

Note the cluster of whipsaw turns in the upper right of the chart; the current ongoing action. Chop suey. Bulls and bears alike are chopped-up in sideways whipsaw price moves.

Be Charitable; Increase Your Worth and Wealth While Helping Humanity

Be charitable, empathetic and compassionate in these crazy troubled times. Helping others helps yourself; it creates spiritual wealth. Do not forget to support your local charities. Gather up the canned goods that have been sitting in the cabinets or pantry for a while and donate them to the food bank. That will give you a chance to clean the shelves and then you can go out and buy new stuff for yourself. The food bank will appreciate it and you end up with a clean kitchen.

Winter is coming fast in the northern states. Disadvantaged kids always need coats, hats, gloves, scarves, sweaters, sweatshirts and boots to fend off the frigid winds. As a child, Keystone (Keybot the Quant algorithm and K E Stone articles, books and blogs) remembers pulling bread wrappers over his feet before placing them in the boots because the boots leaked. When you are poor you do what you have to do. Humorously, by the time he arrived at school, the feet would be wet anyway from sweating in the plastic bags or the bags would work their way down the calf, ankle and end up only covering the front of the feet that now had wet socks. Those days are distant memories now, but you never forget your roots.

In America, sadly, many poor and disadvantaged children continue shivering in the cold and damp winter air while listening to their hunger pangs as other families enjoy lavish turkey and ham feasts in well-heated homes.

Last winter, you told yourself that your coat does not fit well anymore, it is out of style and you need a new one, so donate it to the local thrift store. Any winter clothing items would be appreciated. Search for the smaller locally-operated volunteer-type thrift shops ran by the blue-haired gal’s and silver-haired gentlemen since these little stores directly help the people in that community and your stuff will be put to good use quickly.

The bigger chain thrift stores collect money into one big pot and then disseminate the help from there--after some of that cash goes into corrupt people’s pockets. The small local volunteer thrift stores offer stuff real cheap for disadvantaged folks (so they maintain human dignity purchasing something with their own money) but most of these local stores will outright give people stuff if they are in desperate need. This does not happen out of those big chain thrift stores that control inventories with fancy colored bar code labels. Who knows, perhaps you will like the folks at that humble local thrift shop and after a few laughs find yourself volunteering once or twice per month. Most thrift stores also take food donations (canned goods, pasta, etc…) so you can drop off clothes and food at one place.

You can also make things to donate such as hats and scarves. At the local thrift store that Keystone supports and helps, a lady brought in a bag full of crocheted winter hats for women in early December; all different colors and styles. She is poor as a church mouse but gets by with her apartment and food and such. She spends all year crocheting the hats and then donates them to the local thrift stores in the region during November and December. That is a genuine, authentic, human being.

For the exercise enthusiasts and cyclists, there are many charities always conducting events such as walks, runs, bike runs, etc… The Spin4 events for cyclists help the Crohn’s & Colitis Foundation; that may be of interest to you. There are always charity walks and runs in the towns and cities near you; it is a great way to meet a bunch of like-minded people rallying around a specific cause.

Other ways you can be charitable, even if you say that you are too busy, is to ask your employer (HR person) about a volunteer program. Most large companies already offer these programs to employees. The volunteer program is typically structured where an employee will agree to volunteer, say, 12 times during the year, once per month, at a local hospital, senior center, thrift store, etc.., and in return, the employer pays the employee as if it was a regular day at work. Everybody wins. The employee gets out of the office or shop once per month for something different, the place where the volunteer work occurs (usually selected by the volunteer and approved by the company) benefits from receiving help that day and the employer benefits from good will with people thinking highly of the business or company since it supports and cares about the community. These programs can be structured in lots of different ways. If your company does not have a volunteer program, perhaps spearhead an effort or ask the HR person if that can be put on the agenda at a company meeting to see if folks are interested. Yes, they will be interested.

Lighten your heart and soul by helping others and you will receive wealth beyond your wildest dreams.

Wednesday, October 7, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and prints 7 numbers in the Tuesday session. These are wild markets. The quant has been going nutso lately spitting out numbers left and right. Tuesday was another choppy session. The bulls started to run stocks higher on stronger copper and commodities in the afternoon but President Trump cancelled stimulus talks which tanked the stock market.

The move lower in stocks and futures is muted since traders know that the president is likely bloviating as usual and sure enough, only hours later, Trump is talking about $1,200 stimulus checks for Americans and more bailout stimulus money for airlines (huge layoffs coming if stimulus is not provided). S&P futures are +18 with the VIX remaining elevated at 29.56. Both futures and volatility are higher right now so one of them is wrong.

The bulls are in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. Bulls are receiving strength from commodities and must keep GTX above 1718. Bulls need CPER above 18.33 and VIX below 27.22 to create upside joy in equities. Watch commodities, copper and volatility.

Bears need copper and volatility to remain in their camp and to pull GTX below 1718 to get commodities back in their camp. This will send stocks south and potentially flip the model short. Bears also benefit from weaker banks if XLF drops below 24.30. If commodities or banks, or retail stocks for that matter, fail, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX then moves below 3354 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/6/20; 2:16 PM EST = +43; signal line is +30
10/6/20; 1:32 PM EST = +59; signal line is +30
10/6/20; 12:50 PM EST = +43; signal line is +29
10/6/20; 12:42 PM EST = +59; signal line is +29
10/6/20; 11:09 AM EST = +43; signal line is +27
10/6/20; 10:42 AM EST = +59; signal line is +27
10/6/20; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +26
10/5/20; 2:59 PM EST = +29; signal line is +25; go long 3399; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +5.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +21.5%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.0%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +41.2%)

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side yesterday afternoon at SPX 3399. The last couple days of choppy action is due to President Trump's coronavirus drama. The bulls are in charge but stocks remain a coin-flip with the algo number only 4 points above the signal line. The markets are chop suey. Bulls and bears alike are chopped-up and served cold.

There remains several moving parts creating the whipsaw price action. Typically, only one or two parameters will dominate the US stock market direction on any given day but for the last month there are at least six, seven, sometimes more, parameters jumping around like ping-pong balls. These are epic times for the stock market.

The bulls need to see stronger copper and commodities and lower volatility; CPER above 18.35, GTX above 1717 and VIX below 27.18, respectively. Any one of these flipping bullish will create upside in the stock market, two will create bigtime equity gains and all three will send stocks catapulting higher. Copper and commodities would move lower on a stronger US dollar now trading marginally lower at 93.45. Coper futures are dead flat. At the same time, bulls will try to keep pumping utilities and banks higher.

The bears need to see weaker utilities and banks; UTIL below 826.80 and XLF below 24.30, respectively. Banks receive a boost as the yield curve steepens. At the same time, bears will try to keep stabbing and kicking copper and commodities lower while keeping volatility elevated. If either UTIL or XLF turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and then if the SPX drops below 3367, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. For now, the caution flag is out.

UTIL above 826.80 is a huge win for bulls. If UTIL remains above 826, the stock market will likely not take a huge dramatic tumble into year end. If UTIL falls back below 826, and down to and below 8 hundo, trending lower, that would spell major trouble ahead for the stock market on the intermediate term basis.

The VIX 27.18 bull-bear line in the sand is important. The VIX is coming on line now. Let's see. VIX 28.18. S&P -3. Volatility initially moves higher out of the gate giving a nod to the bears. Watch this closely. Bears win going forward if VIX remains above 27.18. Bulls will be enjoying a nice rally higher in stocks if VIX falls below 27.18.

On the last trade that ran for about 12 hours, the quant program loses -2% and the actual trading loses -1%. The whipsaw action continues. Keybot exits PSQ and enters QQQ. For the year thus far, the S&P 500, the US stock market, is up +5.2%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up about +22% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +41%. Humorously, President Trump is back and this time it is no more Mr Nice Guy.

10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/5/20; 2:59 PM EST = +29; signal line is +25; go long 3399; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +5.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +21.5%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.0%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +41.2%)
10/5/20; 2:19 PM EST = +29; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/5/20; 10:52 AM EST = +43; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/4/20; 7:00 PM EST = +29; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 3:58 PM EST = +29; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 3:33 PM EST = +43; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 3:18 PM EST = +29; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 2:27 PM EST = +43; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 2:06 PM EST = +29; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 1:56 PM EST = +13; signal line is +17
10/2/20; 1:45 PM EST = +29; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 12:18 PM EST = +45; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 12:05 PM EST = +13; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 11:31 AM EST = +29; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 10:48 AM EST = +13; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 10:00 AM EST = -3; signal line is +6
10/2/20; 9:30 AM EST = -3; signal line is +4; go short 3331; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +3.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.6%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +23.5%)(Actual trading results this trade = +3.7%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +42.2%)

Saturday, October 3, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 3331 after Friday's opening bell as the stock market pandemonium continues. President Trump tests positive for coronavirus and is not on camera on Friday creating stock market angst. Hopefully, the president and First Lady, and a dozen others now sickened with COVID-19 in and around the Whitehouse, make speedy recoveries. Stocks collapsed at the open but that was the low print for the day. The bulls pumped utilities, copper and the banks higher to stabilize the stock market but copper faded. The stimulus deal is slightly more likely now that the president has taken ill which buoys stocks.

The quant prints 15 numbers on Friday a very active day. Keybot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 5 points above the signal line but the internal program parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. The unprecedented price behavior continues. This is Crazy erratic stuff occurring as dip-buyers constantly want to jump back into the market on any little pullback since everyone knows the Federal Reserve and other global central banks will print money forever to keep stocks elevated. Something's likely going to give at some point forward. If the SPX moves above 3369 on Monday, Keybot will likely whipsaw back to the long side.

The smoke is still clearing from Friday's activity. The bulls need SPX 3369 and they are all-clear for more upside. Bulls need lower volatility and stronger copper and commodities to push equities higher. The wild intraday huge moves up and down are occurring with the VIX still in the 20's. Just think how wild the price action will be in the days and weeks ahead when the VIX is in the 30's; the Dow will be moving 500, 600, 700 or more points intraday each way and day to day. It will be fun.

Bears need weaker banks and utilities to create a sharp down move in the stock market. Volatility, copper, banks and utes are going to determine market direction on Monday.

On the last trade, that ran for a week, the quant program gains about +3% and the actual trading about +4%. Keybot exits IWM and enters PSQ remaining in the 1x ETF's. For the year thus far, the SPX is up +3%, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +24% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +42%.

10/4/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/2/20; 3:58 PM EST = +29; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 3:33 PM EST = +43; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 3:18 PM EST = +29; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 2:27 PM EST = +43; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 2:06 PM EST = +29; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 1:56 PM EST = +13; signal line is +17
10/2/20; 1:45 PM EST = +29; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 12:18 PM EST = +45; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 12:05 PM EST = +13; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 11:31 AM EST = +29; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 10:48 AM EST = +13; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 10:00 AM EST = -3; signal line is +6
10/2/20; 9:30 AM EST = -3; signal line is +4; go short 3331; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +3.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.6%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +23.5%)(Actual trading results this trade = +3.7%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +42.2%)
10/2/20; 9:00 AM EST = -3; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
10/2/20; 3:06 AM EST = -3; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains long
10/1/20; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is +3
9/30/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +41; signal line is +2
9/30/20; 3:06 PM EST = +41; signal line is -1
9/30/20; 2:52 PM EST = +27; signal line is -4
9/30/20; 2:12 PM EST = +41; signal line is -7
9/30/20; 1:07 PM EST = +27; signal line is -11
9/30/20; 12:49 PM EST = +41; signal line is -14
9/29/20; 12:15 PM EST = +27; signal line is -17
9/29/20; 11:54 AM EST = +13; signal line is -19
9/29/20; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is -23
9/29/20; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is -26
9/28/20; 11:43 AM EST = +34; signal line is -28
9/27/20; 7:00 PM EST = +20; signal line is -30
9/25/20; 1:39 PM EST = +20; signal line is -31
9/25/20; 1:36 PM EST = +4; signal line is -31
9/25/20; 11:17 AM EST = -10; signal line is -31
9/25/20; 11:07 AM EST = -26; signal line is -30
9/25/20; 10:45 AM EST = -10; signal line is -29
9/25/20; 10:41 AM EST = -26; signal line is -28
9/25/20; 9:39 AM EST = -42; signal line is -28 but algorithm remains long
9/25/20; 9:36 AM EST = -26; signal line is -26 but algorithm remains long
9/24/20; 3:52 PM EST = -10; signal line is -24; go long 3248; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +20.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = -0.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +38.5%)

Thursday, October 1, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH - LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 39 points above the signal line. Commodities were pumped on hump day to create broad stock market gains. September is in the bag and October trading begins today. New money typically flows into the market to begin a month, especially a new quarter (Q4), creating buoyancy in equities. S&P futures are up +27 seven hours before the opening bell on Wall Street. Investors are also bulled-up on the hopes for a stimulus package. The US Monthly Jobs Report hits tomorrow so stocks may idle sideways waiting for that data.

Utilities and banks are the only two weak spots in the stock market. Bulls need UTIL above 826 and XLF above 24.26 to prove that there is more upside ahead for equities. XLF came up to test the 24.24-24.27 area yesterday and was repelled. Isn't it amazing the robot tells you these levels before they occur?

Bears need weaker commodities, utilities and copper and higher volatility; GTX under 1723.50, UTIL below 771, CPER below 18.37 and VIX above 27.18, respectively. Bears likely need three of these four to turn bearish to cause the model to flip short, however, if stocks begin selling off, chips and retail stocks may be dropping quickly.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers tomorrow morning one before the opening bell and one after. Follow the GTX 1723.50, VIX 27.18 and XLF 24.26 bull-bear lines in the sand that dictate stock market direction going forward.

10/4/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/2/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/2/20; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +41; signal line is +2
9/30/20; 3:06 PM EST = +41; signal line is -1
9/30/20; 2:52 PM EST = +27; signal line is -4
9/30/20; 2:12 PM EST = +41; signal line is -7
9/30/20; 1:07 PM EST = +27; signal line is -11
9/30/20; 12:49 PM EST = +41; signal line is -14
9/29/20; 12:15 PM EST = +27; signal line is -17
9/29/20; 11:54 AM EST = +13; signal line is -19
9/29/20; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is -23