Thursday, October 8, 2020


Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 29 points above the signal line. The bulls partying like its 1999. The bulls pumped copper out of the gate on hump day and stocks never looked back. FCX launches +7.4%. Any move in copper is exacerbated in that same direction by Freeport-McMoRan.

Oddly, volatility remains in the bear camp. This never happens. When the stock market is moving in a particular direction, volatility is always towards the front or the middle of the pack leading in that direction. Now the VIX continues scooping up the horse manure at the end of the bull parade. Something is wrong somewhere. Bulls need VIX below 27.18 to prove that the move higher in equities is real. If the VIX does not drop below 27.18, stocks will weaken and roll over going forward. VIX is trading at 27.84 with the S&P futures up +15. The bulls need another 66 cents lower in the VIX to prove that they can take stocks higher. Otherwise, they cannot.

Bears need to keep volatility elevated while pounding copper and commodities lower. The stock market rally is over if CPER drops below 18.33 and GTX below 1719. For now, the bulls are in charge but the caution flag remains out since the market price action is erratic and unstable.

10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/7/20; 9:36 AM EST = +59; signal line is +30
10/6/20; 2:16 PM EST = +43; signal line is +30

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