STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market chops sideways. The algo was quiet on Friday only printing the pre-scheduled number. The bulls are in control with the algo number 16 points above the signal line. Bulls need stronger copper, commodities and banks to take equities higher.

9/1/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/19; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +8

8/29/19; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +7; go long 2920; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +21.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side at SPX 2920 after Thursday's opening bell. China announced plans to not retaliate against the latest tariff escalation by the US catapulting the stock market higher. Of course they did; directly after they loaded the boat with calls and long stock. This is the way the game is played in the world's corrupt financial systems.

Interestingly, the gap-up move triggered a timer that will prevent a flip to the long side for about 90 minutes but that was overruled by other internal parameters that flipped the algo long when the semiconductors turned bullish. Chips and retail stocks carry equities higher.

The sideways chop continues slicing up bulls and bears alike. That is why you want to typically trade less in these environments. Keybot, however, always sees its 1's and 0's and continues on its way. Bears need the SOX back below 1471 (now at 1495) and/or the NYA below 12549 (now at 12704) to stop the rally.

The bulls need to maintain the strength in NYA and SOX, while at the same time pushing banks, copper and commodities higher. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning shortly after the opening bell. Today is the last trading day for August; EOM. The US-China trade war rhetoric continues whipsawing markets.

On the last trade, that ran about 1-1/2 weeks, the Keybot program loses -1.6% and the actual trading loses a percent. The whippy action continues to eat away at the nice gains this year. The S&P 500 benchmark index is up nearly +17% this year thus far. The actual trading, generated by Keybot, is up +21%. Keybot exited RWM and entered DIA remaining in 1x ETF's due to the erratic, unstable and shaky price behavior.

9/1/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/19; 10:00 AM EST =

8/29/19; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +7; go long 2920; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +21.4%)

8/28/19; 1:25 PM EST = +12; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short

8/28/19; 1:17 PM EST = -2; signal line is +6

8/28/19; 12:57 PM EST = +12; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short

8/28/19; 12:42 PM EST = -2; signal line is +6

8/28/19; 11:34 AM EST = +12; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
8/27/19; 11:12 AM EST = -2; signal line is +5
8/27/19; 10:00 AM EST = +12; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains short
8/27/19; 9:58 AM EST = +12; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
8/27/19; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short

8/25/19; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is +1

8/19/19; 11:42 AM EST = -2; signal line is +1; go short 2873; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.6%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +10.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +22.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market dances to and fro. Retail stocks catapulted higher, but semiconductors remains subdued, so these parameters remain in their respective camps and did not significantly impact market direction today.

The NYA, however, turns bullish printing above 12546 which gives the bulls the upper hand. The algo wants to go long but the internal parameters will not yet permit the move. The algo number is 6 points above the signal line so Keybot wants to go long. If the SPX prints above 2890, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The S&P 500 starts the Thursday session at 2888 and only needs 2 positive points to tag 2890. Interestingly, S&P futures are trading down -5.

Bulls would benefit from a slow and steady upward move in the stock market which would likely flip the model long. If a gap-up occurs at the opening bell, the quant will likely trigger a timer which will delay the move to the long side for about 90 minutes.

Thursday is a battle between the NYA and SOX. Bulls need NYA to remain above 12546 and for the SPX to move above 2890 to likely flip Keybot long. Bulls will greatly benefit from stronger chips. If SOX moves above 1470.50, the bulls will be charging higher and the bears will be running for their lives.

Bears need to push the NYA below 12546 pronto. The bears hopes and dreams for a market pull back are riding on this one number.

9/1/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/19; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/19; 1:25 PM EST = +12; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short

8/28/19; 1:17 PM EST = -2; signal line is +6

8/28/19; 12:57 PM EST = +12; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short

8/28/19; 12:42 PM EST = -2; signal line is +6

8/28/19; 11:34 AM EST = +12; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short

8/27/19; 11:12 AM EST = -2; signal line is +5

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market roller coaster continues. Bulls and bears battle in choppy sideways action. From Sunday evening into Monday morning, the S&P futures rallied 75 points after President Trump provided happy talk on the US-China trade negotiations. Monday was a bull party but the Keybot algo did not print any numbers. Today, Tuesday, stocks explode higher out of the gate with a gap-up open. The chips and NYA Index flip bullish creating stock market joy.

Alas, that did not last long as the day was a gap and crap, or pop and drop, if you prefer. Both the semiconductors and NYA Index then return into the bear camp creating market angst. The bears are in charge of the stock market but the algo number is only 7 points below the signal line. Keybot wanted to flip long today but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move, and then equities fell on their sword.

Bulls need either SOX above 1470.50 and/or NYA above 12545 to create stock market bullishness. If either one flips bullish, the imminent turn will be in play, and then if the SPX moves above 2899, it is likely that Keybot will flip long.

Bears must keep the chips and NYA index weak and heading lower while at the same time smacking retail stocks lower. Bears need RTH below 108.95 to prove that they can take the stock market lower. Bulls are cheering for stronger semiconductors while bears are cheering for weaker retail stocks.

9/1/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/19; 10:00 AM EST =

8/27/19; 11:12 AM EST = -2; signal line is +5

8/27/19; 10:00 AM EST = +12; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains short
8/27/19; 9:58 AM EST = +12; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
8/27/19; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short

8/25/19; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is +1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side but only by a hair; the algo number is only 3 points below the signal line so the bull-bear battle continues. S&P futures just opened Sunday evening US East Coast time and tanking -35 points. The spoo's were down -42 points a minute ago.

The bulls must push the NYA back above 12535 (now at 12416) or they are in serious trouble. Each day the NYA remains below 12535 is another day the bears will bite off a chunk of bull flesh. This is the life-line the bulls must cling to. If the bulls can turn the NYA bullish, the imminent turn to the long side will be in play for Keybot.

The bears must push retail stocks lower. Bears need RTH below 108.95 (now at 109.03) which is a game of pennies thus, as retail stocks go, so goes the stock market. Equities will take a big leg lower if retail stocks flip into the bear camp which is only 8 pennies away.

If NYA remains bearish and RTH bullish, stocks will chop along sideways. If RTH fails, and the S&P futures may be hinting that this is in the cards, all eyes should focus on SPX 2807. If the S&P 500 loses 2807, stocks may go into an all-out crash. Extremely bad things will start to happen if the SPX loses 2807. The SPX begins at 2847. Well look at that. S&P futures are down about -40 so perhaps the main event for Monday morning is the SPX testing the Armeggeddon level of 2807 where a bounce or die decision will occur. If SPX 2807 is lost, it's ovah, as they say in Brooklyn.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. Friday is also the EOM and the algorithm takes care of this number on Sunday evening. There are several cross-currents ahead. Markets are closed for Labor Day, next Monday, 9/2/19. Stocks are typically buoyant the two days before a three-day holiday weekend which is Thursday and Friday. However, a new moon peaks on Friday morning and stocks are usually weak moving through the new moon each month. 

At 6:28 PM EST Sunday evening, 8/25/19, S&P futures are down.... wait for it.... wait a bit longer for it...... a little bit longer ...... -40 points. The beat goes on.

9/1/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/19; 10:00 AM EST =

8/27/19; 10:00 AM EST =

8/25/19; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is +1

8/23/19; 11:42 AM EST = -2; signal line is +1; go short 2873; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.6%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +10.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +22.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 2873 before lunchtime. The choppy whipsaw action continues. The chips are down for the stock market as semiconductors fall apart due to the escalation of the US-China trade war. Retail stocks and automakers are also slapped silly. The NYA (NYSE Composite) fails into the bear camp causing the Keybot model to flip short. Note, however, that the algo number is only 3 points below the signal line so the tug-o-war between bulls and bears continues.

For Monday, the bulls will need the NYA to strongly recover to send equities higher while the bears need to slap retail stocks lower to gain downside traction.

On the last trade, that only ran for one week, the algo program and actual trading log more marginal losses due to the whipsaw markets. The benchmark SPX is up +15% this year. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +11% and the actual trading generated by the robot is up +22%. Keybot exits IWM and enters RWM remaining in the single ETF's due to the choppy erratic price action.

8/25/19; 7:00 PM EST =

8/23/19; 11:42 AM EST = -2; signal line is +1; go short 2873; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.6%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +10.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +22.3%)

8/23/19; 11:10 AM EST = +12; signal line is +1

8/19/19; 10:11 AM EST = +28; signal line is 0

8/18/19; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is -2

8/16/19; 10:57 AM EST = +12; signal line is -2; go long 2888; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +15.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +11.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +22.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and has not printed a number since Monday. The algo is motoring along with the bulls in control with the algo number 28 points above the signal line. Retail stocks catapult higher especially HD, LOW and TGT, punching the bears in the face.

Bulls need stronger copper and banks and lower volatility to prove they have the beans to take the stock market higher. Bulls need CPER above 16.58 (now at 16.17) and/or VIX below 15.00 (now at 15.80). If the VIX loses the 15 level, the SPX will be racing towards 3K again. Copper futures need a +2.4% gain to make for happy bulls.

Bears need a lower NYA index and weaker chips. Bears need NYA below 12539 (now at 12697). This represents a -1.2% drop in the NYSE Composite. Bears need to push the VIX above 16, 17 and higher to prove that they can take equities lower.

The stock market will likely chop along sideways with a slight upward bias if CPER and VIX remain bearish and NYA bullish. If NYA loses 12539, the stock market will likely fall apart. 

8/25/19; 7:00 PM EST =

8/19/19; 10:11 AM EST = +28; signal line is 0

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls jammed volatility lower and the chips higher at the opening bell for Monday's trade; the stock market gaps-up. After a brief retreat in equities once trading was underway, the retail stocks were jammed higher and that created the bottom in equities for the day in the 10:00 to 10:15 AM EST time frame.

The bulls are cruising with the algo number 28 points above the signal line. As retail stocks go, so goes the stock market. Watch RTH 108.96 as a bull-bear line in the sand (now at 109.03). If retail stocks weaken, stocks will sag and the caution flag will be back out. If retail stocks remain bullish, the bulls will be buying the long side as they drink Fed wine and sing songs of joy.

8/25/19; 7:00 PM EST =

8/19/19; 10:11 AM EST = +28; signal line is 0

8/18/19; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is -2

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as stocks continue whipsawing back and forth in epic price behavior. The algo number is 14 points above the signal line so the bulls are in control.

Bulls will continue rallying equities higher unless the bears can send either NYA below 12532 (now at 12580) or SOX below 1473 (now at 1479). Since both parameters are only a few dollars from their bull-bear lines in the sand, the NYSE Composite and chips will tell the stock market direction story going forward. If either parameter flips into the bear camp, the algo will be in the imminent turn (to the downside) status. If NYA or SOX turn bearish, either one would do, and the SPX drops below 2865, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side.

Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week so stocks are at the mercy of news bites, economic data and the remaining earnings reports. Obviously the president's tweets and the US-China trade war rhetoric, on both sides, is sending the stock market to and fro and maintaining the historically erratic and unstable price behavior.

8/25/19; 7:00 PM EST =

8/18/19; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is -2

8/16/19; 10:57 AM EST = +12; signal line is -2; go long 2888; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +15.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +11.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +22.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 2888. The erratic whippy stock market price behavior continues. Keybot has flipped direction five times in the last 7 trading days which is unprecedented activity never seen in the over one-decade history of the algorithm. This behavior verifies the ongoing erratic and unstable nature of the stock market.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number 14 points above the signal line. The chips create lots of strength in the stock market on Friday; the SOX pops above 1472. The NYA index moves above 12532 so boom, equities took off higher. The wild and historic price action continues.

On the last trade, that lasted only two days, the Keybot program and the actual trading each log marginal losses. The SPX benchmark is up +15% this year. The actual trading generated by Keybot is up +23% this year. Keybot exits SH and enters IWM. The erratic whipsaw markets in August keep chewing up the trading gains this year. Algo's obviously prefer trending markets.

8/18/19; 7:00 PM EST =

8/16/19; 10:57 AM EST = +12; signal line is -2; go long 2888; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +15.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +11.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +22.7%)

8/16/19; 10:52 AM EST = +12; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short

8/16/19; 10:47 AM EST = -4; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short

8/16/19; 10:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is -3

8/16/19; 9:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is -2

8/14/19; 9:48 AM EST = -18; signal line is -1; go short 2879; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +11.3%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +23.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short with the algo 17 points below the signal line. The quant motors along today without printing any numbers. SPX did not breach the 2806 bull-bear line in the sand so the bears were sad and bulls happy. NYA did not punch up through the 12529 bull-bear line in the sand so the bulls were sad and the bears happy. Since neither parameter flinched, the stock market sputtered along chopping above and below the flat line and finished flat.

Same-o set-up for Friday. Watch SPX 2806 and NYA 12529 to determine the path ahead. Stronger chips, the SOX above 1472, would greatly help the bulls.

Housing Starts hit at 8:30 AM EST and Consumer Sentiment is at 10 AM EST Friday morning. The importance of Starts cannot be overstated. As you remember, the quant considers the housing market to have now slipped into a recession going forward so the Starts and Permits data are bigtime important going forward.

If either NYA moves above 12529 and/or SOX above 1472, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play. If both turn bullish, the stock market will be catapulting higher. Armageddon occurs if the SPX loses 2806 (the S&P 500 fell to 2825 today only 19 points from the cliff edge). The erratic and unstable price behavior continues.

8/18/19; 7:00 PM EST =

8/16/19; 10:00 AM EST =

8/16/19; 9:00 AM EST =

8/14/19; 9:48 AM EST = -18; signal line is -1; go short 2879; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +11.3%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +23.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side from yesterday morning at SPX 2879. Craziness. That sums up the stock market nowadays. It's no surprise since the price action has been erratic and unstable. What is a surprise are the whipsaws. Keybot flipped long on 8/8/19 but then whipsawed back to the short side on 8/12/19 then whipsawed back to the long side on 8/13/19 then whipsawed back to the short side yesterday. The price action is historic.

To put it in perspective, after operating for over one decade, the Keybot the Quant algorithm may print a whipsaw a couple times on average each year. The three whipsaw moves below can be deemed whipsaws when discussing them at the water cooler but the quant technically defines a whipsaw if the reversal occurs within about 10 hours time. So Keybot did not consider the move from 8/8 to 8/12 or the move from 8/12 to 8/13 as a whipsaw but the move from 8/13 to 8/14 is a whipsaw, by the quant's definition. This automatically sends Keybot the Quant into single 1x ETF's for the next 35 days. Choppy sideways markets chew up both bulls and bears and especially positions in leveraged ETF's. This activity shows you why you do not want to be in those dangerous and flawed 3x ETF and ETN instruments.

The Keybot moves are self explanatory below. Keybot was in SSO on 8/8 then flipped into SDS on 8/12 then to SPY (1x ETF) on 8/13 and then into SH (1x ETF) on 8/14. Keybot will remain in single ETF's until 9/16/19 as long as no other whipsaws occur.

But continuing the point from above, Keybot may have 2 or 3 whipsaws a year and this is just a simple reversal after it flips in one of the directions. The moves this week are unprecedented flipping from long to short, back to long then back to short in only 3 days; a unique and rare triple-whipsaw. Keybot has never printed anything even close to this in all its history. Interestingly, the quant was printing maximum +100 numbers (representing maximum market euphoria) in mid-July only one month ago.

For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +14.8%. The Keybot algorthm program is up +11.3%. The actual trading generated by Keybot is up +23.1% taking a haircut from the 30%+ levels because of the choppy, whippy markets. Any losses from further whipsaws are minimized by the quant now being in the 1x non-leveraged ETF's.

Now that the market mayhem is caught up to the present time, the VIX is at 23.14 and S&P futures are -5 three hours before the opening bell for the regular Thursday trading session in the States. S&P futures have dropped almost 30 handles over the last hour after the US-China trade war is escalated by the communists saying they will retaliate against President Trump's tariffs.

The NYA failed yesterday at 12528 which ushers in a cyclical (weeks and many months ahead) bear market. Watch this closely. Bulls must move NYA above 12528 as soon as possible to stop the market carnage. If stocks perform a rebound rally today, watch the NYA since it will tell you if the rally is real, or not.

The bears need weakness in utilities and the SPX index to prove they can crash the markets. Watch SPX 2806 very closely. The S&P 500 dropped to 2835 yesterday and 2822 last week only 16 points from this Armageddon line in the sand. If the SPX loses 2806, all hope for bulls is lost and the stock market is guaranteed to be in a cyclical bear market pattern for weeks and months ahead. If stocks sell off, as futures indicate, and weakness in equities is persistent, but the SPX does not lose the 2806 level, the bulls will recover going forward.

If utilities develop a downward trend from here, it will mean serious trouble for equities. If utilities bounce over the coming days, the bulls likely have a chance at steadying the stock market ship.

Bulls need NYA above 12528. Bears need SPX below 2806. One of them will flinch going forward and tell you the stock market direction ahead. If stocks keep chopping along and the NYA remains bearish and the SPX in the bull camp, equities will maintain in a sideways to sideways lower bias.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers tomorrow morning. Anything can happen in these erratic and unstable markets controlled by President Tweet and central banker largess. The bears are in control with the algo number 17 points below the signal line. The beat goes on.

9/6/19; 9:00 AM EST =

9/1/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/19; 10:00 AM EST =

8/27/19; 10:00 AM EST =

8/25/19; 7:00 PM EST =

8/18/19; 7:00 PM EST =

8/16/19; 10:00 AM EST =

8/16/19; 9:00 AM EST =

8/14/19; 9:48 AM EST = -18; signal line is -1; go short 2879; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +11.3%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +23.1%)

8/14/19; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is 0 but algorithm remains long

8/13/19; 12:15 PM EST = +12; signal line is +1

8/13/19; 10:27 AM EST = +28; signal line is +2; go long 2943; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +17.4%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +13.5%)(Actual results this trade = -3.1%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +25.3%)

8/13/19; 10:05 AM EST = +28; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short

8/13/19; 9:54 AM EST = +12; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains short

8/12/19; 11:14 AM EST = -4; signal line is +5; go short 2889; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +15.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +15.4%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +28.4%)

8/11/19; 7:00 PM EST = -4; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains long

8/9/19; 9:47 AM EST = -4; signal line is +9 but algorithm remains long

8/8/19; 11:40 AM EST = +12; signal line is +11; go long 2924; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.6%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +16.6%)(Actual results this trade = +3.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +30.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 12 points below the signal line. The internal parameters will not fully latch as yet to permit the move. The semiconductors stumble out of the gate on Friday creating stock market negativity. The imminent turn is in play and the quant will likely flip short if the SPX loses the 2900 level.

The battle for market direction is between chips and the NYA index. Bulls need the SOX back above 1478.20 to prove that up is the direction ahead. Bears need the NYA Index to drop below 12531 to prove that down is the direction ahead. One of them will flinch. If chips remain bearish and the NYA bullish, stocks will chop along sideways with a slight downward bias.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week both on Friday morning. You can use VIX 17.17 as a market rudder. VIX above 17.17 creates market mayhem while VIX below 17.17 stops the selling and creates market stability for the bulls.

8/18/19; 7:00 PM EST =

8/16/19; 10:00 AM EST =

8/16/19; 9:00 AM EST =

8/11/19; 7:00 PM EST = -4; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains long

8/9/19; 9:47 AM EST = -4; signal line is +9 but algorithm remains long

8/8/19; 11:40 AM EST = +12; signal line is +11; go long 2924; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.6%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +16.6%)(Actual results this trade = +3.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +30.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side today at SPX 2924 before munch time. The bulls win the day with bullish semiconductors and during the last half-hour of trading the VIX falls through the 200-day MA at 17.18 pumping stocks higher.

The chips matter. Bears must push the SOX below 1478.25 (now at 1491.26) to regain control of the stock market direction. Bulls remain in the driver's seat as long as the SOX remains bullish above 1478.25.

The bulls will verify further upside strength in stocks if either RTH moves above 109.44, XLF above 27.65 and/or VIX below 14.55. It will be a sign of market weakness if none of the three can flip bullish in the Friday trade.

The model may whipsaw back to the short side in these erratic and unstable markets so the caution flag and imminent turn notations are in the title line. Friday may be a wild and crazy day. The bulls are in control but that will immediately disappear if the bears push SOX below 1478.25. Listen for any news on the chips overnight which will push SOX one way or the other.

The algo number is only 2 points above the signal line favoring the bulls but these readings indicate that the stock market is a coin flip.

On the last trade, which lasted two weeks, the Keybot program gains +1.8% and the actual trading gains +3.4%. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's. Interestingly, the SPX benchmark index and the Keybot the Quant algorithm program are both up exactly +16.6% after 7 months of trading in 2019. The actual trading generated by Keybot is up +31% on the year thus far outperforming the vast majority of Wall Street.

Watch VIX 17.18. VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST so it will give you a heads-up for the Friday trade. If VIX is above 17.18, stocks will be in retreat on Friday. If the SOX turns bearish, stocks will fall apart. If VIX is above 17.18, but the SOX remains bullish above 1478.25, the chips will likely win and stocks will remain buoyant.

If VIX is below 17.18, stocks will be in a happy mood into the weekend. If VIX is below 17.18 and the chips remain bullish, stocks will rally strongly into the weekend. Of course, if the retail stocks or banks turn bullish, or volatility bullish, as described above, the bulls will be in clover. It's not rocket science. The beat goes on.

8/11/19; 7:00 PM EST =

8/8/19; 11:40 AM EST = +12; signal line is +11; go long 2924; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.6%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +16.6%)(Actual results this trade = +3.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +30.8%)

8/8/19; 11:31 AM EST = -4; signal line is +12

8/8/19; 11:14 AM EST = +12; signal line is +14

8/7/19; 12:45 PM EST = -4; signal line is +16

8/7/19; 11:47 AM EST = -18; signal line is +19

8/7/19; 10:53 AM EST = -4; signal line is +21
8/7/19; 9:37 AM EST = -18; signal line is +24
8/6/19; 1:05 PM EST = -4; signal line is +27
8/6/19; 12:53 PM EST = -18; signal line is +29

8/6/19; 11:53 AM EST = -4; signal line is +32

8/6/19; 11:16 AM EST = -18; signal line is +35

8/6/19; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +37
8/5/19; 1:50 PM EST = -18; signal line is +40

8/5/19; 1:12 PM EST = -4; signal line is +44

8/5/19; 1:00 PM EST = -18; signal line is +47

8/5/19; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +49
8/4/19; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +52

8/2/19; 10:00 AM EST = +12; signal line is +54

8/2/19; 9:00 AM EST = +12; signal line is +56

8/1/19; 2:26 PM EST = +12; signal line is +58

8/1/19; 1:41 PM EST = +28; signal line is +60

8/1/19; 1:33 PM EST = +44; signal line is +61

8/1/19; 10:33 AM EST = +58; signal line is +62
8/1/19; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +62
7/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +58; signal line is +63
7/31/19; 3:32 PM EST = +58; signal line is +64
7/31/19; 3:06 PM EST = +44; signal line is +64

7/31/19; 2:55 PM EST = +28; signal line is +65

7/31/19; 2:51 PM EST = +44; signal line is +67; go short 2976; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +18.7%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +14.8%)(Actual results this trade = -2.0%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +27.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market turmoil continues. Chips and banks failed out of the gate this week so the stock market collapsed. A relief rally occurs on Tuesday but the bears remain in control with the algo number 31 points below the signal line. Keybot is active this week printing 9 numbers during the first 2 sessions.

The bulls need stronger chips, banks and retail stocks to stop the market carnage. Bulls need SOX above 1474 (now at 1442) and XLF above 27.63 (now at 27.11). If either parameter turns bullish, the caution flag will be out since the quant may be positioning itself to flip to the long side. If both turn bullish, the imminent turn to the long side will be in play.

The bears simply need to keep the semiconductors and banks negative while sending the NYA below 12528 (now at 12628) and the stock market selling will continue.

The stock market will chop along sideways if the chips and banks remain negative and the NYA positive. 1 of these 3 parameters will flinch and immediately tell you the path ahead for the stock market.

8/11/19; 7:00 PM EST =

8/6/19; 1:05 PM EST = -4; signal line is +27

8/6/19; 12:53 PM EST = -18; signal line is +29
8/6/19; 11:53 AM EST = -4; signal line is +32
8/6/19; 11:16 AM EST = -18; signal line is +35
8/6/19; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +37
8/5/19; 1:50 PM EST = -18; signal line is +40
8/5/19; 1:12 PM EST = -4; signal line is +44
8/5/19; 1:00 PM EST = -18; signal line is +47
8/5/19; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +49
8/4/19; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Parameters such as banks, retail stocks and commodities have failed into the bear camp along with the upward spike in volatility. The bulls are hanging their hats, and hopes, on chips to save the day.

The bears are cruising along in full control with the algo number 40 points below the signal line. Keybot prints two numbers on Friday; both were pre-scheduled so the actual price action in the stock market was benign to end last week.

S&P futures are tanking 34 points, and were down over 40 a couple hours ago, with the VIX tagging 21, about 3-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the regular Monday US trading session.

The battle is banks versus chips; it is that easy. Bulls need semiconductors (SOX) to remain strong while sending XLF above 27.72 (now at 27.60). If banks flip back into the bull camp, the stock market selling will immediately stop and a small relief rally is likely.

Bears need to keep the financials (XLF) weak while sending the SOX below 1477 (now at 1488). If the chips flip bearish, the stock market is in serious trouble and the market carnage will continue.

Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. Watch XLF 27.72 and SOX 1477 since these two parameters dictate stock market direction ahead. The beat goes on. 

8/11/19; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/19; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +52

8/2/19; 10:00 AM EST = +12; signal line is +54

8/2/19; 9:00 AM EST = +12; signal line is +56

8/1/19; 2:26 PM EST = +12; signal line is +58

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market roller coaster ride continues. Commodities failed out of the gate so that created a pall over equities for the Thursday session. The central banker's placed their jackboots on the throat of volatility mid-morning which created bullishness in stocks but that was like trying to keep a beachball underwater and boom, the VIX pops skyward from the early afternoon on. This behavior coincides with President Trump tweeting that the US is imposing more tariffs on China. Stocks dive. Bonds rally.

The bears are cruising with the algo number 46 points below the signal line. Retail stocks and financials gave up the ghost today slapping equities silly. The Dow collapses 626 points intraday from +1% joy to -1% despair. This price action is with a VIX at 14-17. Just think, when the VIX trades above 20, the Dow will be moving 1,000 points or more intraday or day to day. That will be fun.

Bulls need XLF above 27.72 and/or RTH above 109.88 to stop the market bleeding. Bulls also need the VIX to move below 14.48. If these three parameters remain bearish, the bull whippings will continue and stocks will maintain a negative bias. The stock market will immediately stop selling off if any of the three parameters turn bullish.

The US Monthly Jobs Report is released before the Friday opening bell which may create further market turmoil. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers tomorrow morning one at 9 AM EST and the other at 10 AM EST. August is off and stumbling.

8/2/19; 10:00 AM EST =

8/2/19; 9:00 AM EST =

8/1/19; 2:26 PM EST = +12; signal line is +58

8/1/19; 1:41 PM EST = +28; signal line is +60

8/1/19; 1:33 PM EST = +44; signal line is +61

8/1/19; 10:33 AM EST = +58; signal line is +62

8/1/19; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +62

7/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +58; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 2976 during Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference that creates market mayhem. Interestingly, commodities are trying to create bullishness, despite a strong dollar. Copper remains in the bear camp. Retail stocks collapse into the bear camp creating yesterday afternoon's turmoil but then recover into the closing bell. Volatility pops so stocks drop. Markets remain unstable and erratic.

The caution flag is out but the bears are in control with the algo number 5 points below the signal line. Bulls need lower volatility, VIX below 14.46, and/or stronger copper, CPER above 16.92.

Bears need to keep copper weak and volatility elevated. In addition, bears need weaker retail stocks, RTH under 109.92, and/or weaker commodities, GTX under 2490.20. If either RTH or GTX turn bearish, stocks will weaken and weaken severely if both turn bearish.

RTH begins the day at 110.09 only 17 pennies in the bull camp so watch this closely. If RTH fails into the bear camp, stocks will continue lower. GTX is at 2492.08 another game of inches less than 2 bucks in the bull camp. Equities will fall apart if GTX loses 2490.20.

S&P futures are +5 a couple hours before the opening bell for the Thursday trading session in the States. The SPX begins the session at 2980.

On the last one-week trade, the algo program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent. The SPX benchmark index is up +18.7% this year and the actual trading generated by Keybot is up 27.4%. Keybot exits QQQ and enters SDS. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw. As mentioned, retail stocks, commodities and volatility will tell the market direction story today.

8/4/19; 7:00 PM EST =
8/2/19; 10:00 AM EST =

8/2/19; 9:00 AM EST =

7/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +58; signal line is +63
7/31/19; 3:32 PM EST = +58; signal line is +64

7/31/19; 3:06 PM EST = +44; signal line is +64

7/31/19; 2:55 PM EST = +28; signal line is +65

7/31/19; 2:51 PM EST = +44; signal line is +67; go short 2976; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +18.7%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +14.8%)(Actual results this trade = -2.0%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +27.4%)

7/31/19; 2:37 PM EST = +72; signal line is +67

7/31/19; 2:06 PM EST = +58; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains long

7/31/19; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +68

7/30/19; 10:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains long

7/30/19; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long

7/29/19; 10:34 AM EST = +74; signal line is +69

7/29/19; 10:07 AM EST = +58; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains long

7/29/19; 9:40 AM EST = +74; signal line is +71

7/28/19; 7:00 PM EST = +58; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long

7/25/19; 12:33 PM EST = +58; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long

7/24/19; 11:06 AM EST = +74; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long

7/24/19; 10:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +75; go long 3009; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +20.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +15.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +29.4%)