Saturday, March 31, 2012

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short thru the weekend.  The final week of March results in a flip to the long side on Monday, then back to the short side on Wednesday where the quant remains. The bulls and bears are fighting for control of the markets and the market bears are currently winning.  The final Friday closing print ends the week, the month of March and the first quarter, Q1.  The algo did not print any additonal numbers on Friday other than the pre-sheduled number that clicked off at 10 AM.

Copper, commodities and utilities are the most important sectors to watch in the days ahead. Commodities are now in the bear camp, copper fell into the bear camp causing the algo to shift to the bear side on Wednesday, but recovered slightly and is in the bull camp but only by a smidge.  The utes should fall into the bear camp a few minutes after Monday's opening bell, as long as a gap up does not occur, and this will lower the algo number moving Keybot more to the bearish side.

Next week's levels of interest can be identified after the standard Sunday number prints tomorrow. The bears are in control now; a potential game changer for the bulls would be better than expected China PMI data this weekend which would bounce copper and commodities. However, with the trouble in utilities on tap for next week, the bears may be able to keep their claws in the bull anyway. Thus, watch for the China PMI and what affect it may, or may not, have on the Sunday algorithm print.

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST = +62; signal line is +66
3/29/12; 3:14 PM EST = +62; signal line is +66
3/28/12; 12:17 PM EST = +46; signal line is +66
3/28/12; 10:33 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67; go short 1409; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +12.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.3%; Actual for 2012 = +5.2%)

Friday, March 30, 2012

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short as the Friday session is now underway.  The algo printed the pre-scheduled number minutes ago which results in no change.  JJC remains above 48.83 but is leaking lower after the early highs.  CRB sits at 307 settling in to this bear territory under 312. UTIL is at 458.23.  Bulls need to find some gusto if they plan on moving UTIL above 463 by today's close. SPX popped at the open to place a HOD at 1409.61, so the 1410 R remains in place for now. Watch JJC 48.83, CRB 312 and UTIL 463, they are telling you everything you need to know.

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST = +62; signal line is +66
3/29/12; 3:14 PM EST = +62; signal line is +66
3/28/12; 12:17 PM EST = +46; signal line is +66
3/28/12; 10:33 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67; go short 1409; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +12.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.3%; Actual for 2012 = +5.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short.  Commodities, CRB, collapsed yesterday dropping 2% now down 3% on the week. Copper, JJC, ushered in the market weakness over the last couple days but in the final half hour of trading yesterday, recovered to move above the critical 48.83 level to close above at 48.87. The dollar is weaker today so JJC and CRB may enjoy some buoyancy. Watch JJC 48.83 very closely since it is a direct gauge for broad market direction.  The drop in the CRB is a major win for market bears moving forward.

If you look back at Keybot moving to the short side this year, two days later the bulls would wrestle back control. Think of this in the context of the bear slashing at the bull but only creating scratches on the bull's hide as the bull ran away and ran higher this year thus far.  After the drop in the CRB yesterday, however, the bear has stopped the bull from running now and the bear's claws are dug deep into the bull's flesh holding it back. The markets will move sideways to sideways lower as long as the CRB stays under 312, it is now under 306, comfortably lower making market bears smile.

More drama is on tap with the utilities today as the week, month and Q1 all close out at 4 PM EST. UTIL is at 456. It must close above 463 today, seven points higher, otherwise, Monday is set up for further bearish action in the markets so watch this closely as the day plays out. The game changer for bulls and bears alike occurs this evening with the China PMI data. This data will directly impact copper and commodities markets drastically and the U.S. equity markets will react strongly come Monday morning.  Lower Asian growth means less need for copper and commodities and equities will move lower; if the China data beats expectations then copper and commodities will recover strongly and likewise the equities markets.

For the Friday session with the SPX starting at 1403.28, the bulls have the wind at their backs since they only need to see prints above 1405 to accelerate the upside action, and with the U.S. futures up strongly as this is written, this appears a done deal.  SPX overhead resistance levels are 1406, 1410, 1413, 1414 and 1419. The market bears need to push the SPX down under 1392 to reignite the market negativity.  A move thru 1393-1404 is sideways action. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so market action can be updated at that time. In a nutshell, watch JJC 48.83, CRB 312, UTIL 463, SPX 1405/1392 which will dictate broad market direction today.

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/29/12; 3:14 PM EST = +62; signal line is +66
3/28/12; 12:17 PM EST = +46; signal line is +66
3/28/12; 10:33 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67; go short 1409; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +12.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.3%; Actual for 2012 = +5.2%)

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short as of this morning. Copper, JJC, failed the 48.83 level ushering in market selling.  Interestingly, in the final minutes before the close, Keybot dropped the level of interest to 48.82 and the final closing print is smack dab on top of 48.82.  How does Keybot know these numbers ahead of time? This is high drama for Thursday since the broad markets will move the same way as copper.  Above JJC 48.82 and the bulls will enjoy market buoyancy, below and the bears will continue the selling.

CRB failed today closing at 311.47 under the 312.10 level of interest favoring bears.  Thus, the bears are in good shape but definitely need JJC to drop at the open to continue the downside, therefore bears want to see a stronger dollar and bulls want to see a weaker dollar so JJC and CRB will climb again.  Watch UTIL 446.15 this week which would signal market trouble and also UTIL needs to be above 463 by the Friday close or the broad indexes will be in trouble come Monday.

For the SPX starting at 1405.54, the bulls need eight points to move above 1413.50 to accelerate further upside.  The market bears need to push the SPX under 1397, about eight points lower, and the broad index selling will accelerate. A move thru 1398-1404 is sideways action. Markets remain highly unstable. Stay on guard for a whipsaw move.

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/28/12; 12:17 PM EST = +46; signal line is +66
3/28/12; 10:33 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67; go short 1409; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +12.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.3%; Actual for 2012 = +5.2%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
3/28/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:33 AM EST at SPX 1409, whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.0%; Keybot algo is up 3.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.2%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.
3/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:18 PM EST at SPX 1412; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.2%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.5%.
3/22/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:51 AM EST at SPX 1392; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.7%; Keybot algo is up 5.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.8%.
3/8/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:04 PM at SPX 1364; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.4%; Keybot algo is up 3.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%.
3/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 12:18 PM at SPX 1343; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.8%; Keybot algo is up 4.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%.
2/16/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 1:10 PM at SPX 1356; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.8%; Keybot algo is up 5.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.2%.
2/14/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:30 PM at SPX 1342; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.7%; Keybot algo is up 6.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 10.2%.
1/1/12: The new year begins. For 2011, the SPX Benchmark is flat finishing up 0%; Keybot algo finished the year up 33%; Keybot actual trading ended the year up 37%. Keybot begins 2012 remaining long. The new year begins at SPX 1258.
12/20/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:49 PM at SPX 1240; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 1.4%; Keybot algo is up 31.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.5%.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side and commodities cracked a short time ago.  The stronger dollar today has driven copper, JJC, and commodities, CRB, lower placing the bears back in control.  Utilities, UTIL, are also weak, now printing 453. UTIL needs to be above 463 by the Friday close otherwise the bears will have extra strength come Monday's open.  In addition, UTIL 446.15 must be maintained this week otherwise additional broad market selling will occur. Bears are cruising.

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/28/12; 12:17 PM EST = +46; signal line is +66
3/28/12; 10:33 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67; go short 1409; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +12.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.3%; Actual for 2012 = +5.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short at 10:33 AM at SPX 1409. This is a whipsaw since it occurred within 48 hours of the Monday move to the long side.  The algo remains in a lower risk mode using single non-leveraged ETF's which should remain in place now thru April.  The last trade lost a smidge. Copper failed today but JJC remains on the ragged edge at 48.75 with bulls trying to push it back above 48.83.  CRB is maintaining elevation above 312.30 so this helps the bulls.  Also, tech is not leading the downside so this helps the bulls fight back as well. As always stay alert for a whipsaw back to the long side. The markets are highly unstable but the bears have seized control, for now. Watch JJC 48.83 today.

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/28/12; 10:33 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67; go short 1409; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +12.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.3%; Actual for 2012 = +5.2%)
3/28/12; 9:51 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay long
3/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66
3/26/12; 2:18 PM EST = +76; signal line is +65; go long 1412; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +12.2%)(Keybot this trade = -1.4%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.3%; Actual for 2012 = +5.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but the algorithm wants to go short now. Note that the algo number is now under the signal line and the robot would be short except for internal programming rules not yet satisfied.  JJC, failed at 48.83 (watch this number today since Keybot constantly recalculates levels of interest) which ushered in the market weakness.  SPX lost the 1412 level to print as low as 1409.16, but the timing did not jive with what the algo needed to see for a clean flip to the short side.  Thus, if JJC stays under 48.83, and the SPX ventures down and holds towards the lows at 1409.16 for two to five minutes, that should trigger the quant to go short.  Markets remain unstable. A turn appear imminent.  If the Nasdaq (tech) would lead down that will send the markets sharply lower and that depends on AAPL behavior. CRB is also threatening failure at 312.30 which will ignite broad market selling if lost.

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/28/12; 9:51 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay long
3/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66
3/26/12; 2:18 PM EST = +76; signal line is +65; go long 1412; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +12.2%)(Keybot this trade = -1.4%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.3%; Actual for 2012 = +5.5%)

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Wednesday session. Watch JJC 49, now at 49.62, since broad market weakness will accelerate if this target is hit.  Likewise, CRB 312.30, now at 315.43, which also leads to significant market weakness.  The utilities is another sector the algo continues to monitor, but UTIL at 458 is well above any danger at 446 for this week, but by Friday's close it must be above 463 or next Monday will be setting up for the market bears.  A stronger dollar may give the bears a run lower at the JJC and CRB targets, bulls will simply try to keep the dollar weak.

For the SPX, starting at 1412.52, the bulls need to touch the 1419 handle and the markets will accelerate higher.  The bears need to see price drop under 1412, that will signal the all clear for an accelerated move lower for the broad indexes. A move thru 1413-1418 is sideways action. Markets remain unstable, the dollar and AAPL lead the markets, stay cautious.

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66
3/26/12; 2:18 PM EST = +76; signal line is +65; go long 1412; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +12.2%)(Keybot this trade = -1.4%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.3%; Actual for 2012 = +5.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the pre-scheduled number prints, only bumping up the signal line by one tick. Bulls are in control, keeping copper and commodities elevated in the early going. The dollar is flat to a few pennies positive so that will help contain further market upside.  The Nasdaq is not leading the upside like it did yesterday so that should also mute any broad market move higher, but watch AAPL closely. Slight market weakness appears after the Consumer Confidence data with volatility up. SPX jumped three handles at the open but the 1419 resistance ceiling is holding it in check for now. Markets remain highly unstable. Stay cautious.

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66
3/26/12; 2:18 PM EST = +76; signal line is +65; go long 1412; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +12.2%)(Keybot this trade = -1.4%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.3%; Actual for 2012 = +5.5%)

Monday, March 26, 2012

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as of 2 PM today. Chairman Bernanke beat the dollar with a baseball bat so copper, commodities, oil, gold and equities took a rocket ride higher. The quant continues to watch copper and commodities since the initial cracks in the markets would appear here first, based on the current market action.  JJC is at 50, it would have to drop under 49 and CRB is 315 and would have to drop under 312.40 to make bears happy. Therefore the dollar remains the key, bulls want a weak dollar and are handing Bernanke the Lousiville Slugger to do his deeds, while the bears want to see a stronger dollar so copper and commodities can move lower and take the markets lower.

Markets remain very unstable. Stay on guard for a whipsaw which would not be surprising in these markets. Caution is required.  Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning one-half hour after trading begins so the action can be updated then.

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/26/12; 2:18 PM EST = +76; signal line is +65; go long 1412; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +12.2%)(Keybot this trade = -1.4%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.3%; Actual for 2012 = +5.5%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns Bullish from 3/26/12

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs. Same pattern three times in a row this year, a selloff is triggered, then two days later the all-clear for bulls occurs again.
3/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:18 PM EST at SPX 1412; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.2%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.5%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.
3/22/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:51 AM EST at SPX 1392; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.7%; Keybot algo is up 5.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.8%.
3/8/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:04 PM at SPX 1364; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.4%; Keybot algo is up 3.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%.
3/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 12:18 PM at SPX 1343; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.8%; Keybot algo is up 4.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%.
2/16/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 1:10 PM at SPX 1356; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.8%; Keybot algo is up 5.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.2%.
2/14/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:30 PM at SPX 1342; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.7%; Keybot algo is up 6.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 10.2%.
1/1/12: The new year begins. For 2011, the SPX Benchmark is flat finishing up 0%; Keybot algo finished the year up 33%; Keybot actual trading ended the year up 37%. Keybot begins 2012 remaining long. The new year begins at SPX 1258.
12/20/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:49 PM at SPX 1240; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 1.4%; Keybot algo is up 31.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.5%.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant moved back to the bull side a short time ago. Before the bell, Chairman Bernanke launched the markets announcing easy accommodation and money printing ahead. The markets and copper were flat with the dollar up just before he spoke, but reversed sharply on the news, the dollar plummeted as gold, silver, oil, copper--that was very important today, and of course equites all jumping higher.

Typically, Keybot would have flipped long after the open, but a timer kicked in where the quant had to wait until approximately 11 AM EST, but ath that time the algo needed to see the SPX up above 1412.  Minutes ago the 1412 was tagged and all the internals were lined up for the move back to the long side. The market rally is obviously due the quantitative easing pumping news right before the bell.

Keybot lost about a pecent and a half on the last trade.  Stay on guard for a whipsaw back to the short side. Markets are highly unstable and each days action simply reinforces this thought. Bulls are back in control for now. The SPX is now up over 12% on the year thus far.

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/26/12; 2:18 PM EST = +76; signal line is +65; go long 1412; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +12.2%)(Keybot this trade = -1.4%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.3%; Actual for 2012 = +5.5%)
3/25/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +64 but algorithm says stay short
3/23/12; 10:59 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay short
3/23/12; 8:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +63
3/22/12; 12:13 PM EST = +46; signal line is +63
3/22/12; 11:31 AM EST = +60; signal line is +64
3/22/12; 11:14 AM EST = +46; signal line is +65
3/22/12; 11:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66
3/22/12; 10:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +66
3/22/12; 10:51 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67; go short 1392; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.7%)(Keybot this trade = +2.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +5.2%)(Actual this trade = +1.0%; Actual for 2012 = +6.8%)

Sunday, March 25, 2012

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short to start the new week of trading. The overnight behavior in copper into the Monday open should dictate the broad market direction. If copper moves up so will the markets, if copper moves down, the broad indexes will sell off.  When the bell rings, watch JJC 48.83, price sits directly on this bull-bear line.  Whichever way it moves it takes the markets with it.

Watch CRB 312.50 level, now at 314.47, affecting the markets bullishly.  If the 312.50 level is lost the market bears will push the broad indexes lower. The dollar will tell the story since an up dollar will result in JJC falling under the 48.83 and CRB heading lower to test the 312.50 favoring the market bears but a down dollar will result in JJC spiking above 48.83 and perhaps over 49, and the CRB will remain elevated thus keeping the broad indexes elevated and headed higher.

The other key sector that Keybot is now scanning is the utilities, UTIL, watch the 446.15 level. Last week UTIL moved in a very tight 450-456 range so this week look for a stronger move committing to one side or the other. The bulls are happy if UTIL stays above 446 but if failure occurs at 446, the broad markets will be in serious trouble. In addition, the week will become interesting as Friday approaches. By the Friday close, the bulls must keep UTIL above 463 and price currently sits 10 bucks under.  Thus, watch 446 for UTIL now thru 3 PM EST on 3/30/12, then in the final hour of trading Friday, watch 463 for UTIL.

For the SPX for Monday, starting at 1397, the bulls have the easy path ahead since only two points are needed, to poke up thru 1399, and the market upside will accelerate higher to 1403 and 1406. The bears need to see a drop of ten points to 1387 to reignite an accelerated move lower.  A move thru 1388-1398 is sideways action.

Tomorrow we find out if Keybot whipsaws, or not. The quant uses a 48-hour timer to identify a whipsaw so the move short was Thursday at 10:51 AM so the first hour and one-half of trading on Monday will be very important.  Copper will dictate the market direction as described above. If JJC moves above 48.83 and the SPX moves to 1400 and higher, Keybot will likely flip back to the long side.  The algo prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week, one on Tuesday morning and one on Friday morning. The EOM and EOQ1 occurs at the Friday close this week. Markets remain unstable clearly shown by the shaky market action last week with the oil volatility, the TVIX volatility derivative failure, AAPL trading halt and BATS Exchange mini-flash crash failure. Stay alert and cautious.

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/25/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +64 but algorithm says stay short
3/23/12; 10:59 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay short

Saturday, March 24, 2012

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short as the smoke clears over the weekend. Copper, JJC, was the key sector that collapsed during the week causing the algorithm to move to the short side.  Commodities, CRB, followed along lower but utilities, UTIL, remained elevated.  These are the three sectors of most interest to Keybot currently.  A reverse occurred in the Friday session with CRB recovering early morning then copper moved back to the bull camp as well before lunch time.  This places the quant in the position that it wants to go long, as evidenced by the algo number above the signal line, but other programming rules are holding it back.

Interestingly, JJC is sitting directly on top of the level of interest continuously calculated by the quant--48.83, neither tipping its hand for bulls or bears; it wants to wait for Monday's bell to decide. This sets up high drama since the broad indexes will move in the same direction that copper moves as the new week begins.  The quant is idling over the weekend and will print Sunday's pre-scheduled number tomorrow.  At that time the levels of interest and specific SPX levels can be targeted for, what appears to be, a dramatic Monday morning setting up.

3/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/23/12; 10:59 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay short
3/23/12; 8:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +63
3/22/12; 12:13 PM EST = +46; signal line is +63

Friday, March 23, 2012

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short.  JJC popped above 48.80 about an hour ago and the buoyancy in the broad markets resulted. Note that the algo number jumped above the signal line but internal rules in the programming is preventing Keybot from going long.  Several more internal triggers need to fall into place, a key one that many of you can watch today would be the SPX price level.  Keybot needs to see the SPX up over 1400, and likely up over 1402 before it would probably commit back to the long side.

Meanwhile, the market remain unstable and JJC drifts lower now printing 48.84.  Failure at 48.80 will usher in broad market weakness again. For now, the bears remain in control. Watch JJC 48.80, it tells you what you need to know.

3/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/23/12; 10:59 AM EST = +76; signal line is +63 but algorithm says stay short
3/23/12; 8:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +63
3/22/12; 12:13 PM EST = +46; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short but the bulls started the day by bouncing the commodities, CRB.  After the equities opened an hour ago, JJC remains under the 48.80 level, although price is moving upwards now to 48.60.  Watch this closely today.

The SPX lost the 1389 level so a downside acceleration would be expected but the bears could only muster up a couple points lower thus far today.  The bulls are now moving price higher back into the 1390's. If JJC moves over 48.80 the bulls may have some game today, otherwise, if the JJC stays under 48.80, the broad indexes should reverse again and head lower. AAPL moves sideways so this provides broad market support. Note that the algo number is only three points away from the signal line so even though the bears are winning now, these markets remain highly unstable and erratic. Caution is required. JJC will tell you the story today.

3/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/23/12; 8:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +63
3/22/12; 12:13 PM EST = +46; signal line is +63
3/22/12; 11:31 AM EST = +60; signal line is +64

Thursday, March 22, 2012

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and tomorrow we see if a whipsaw occurs, or not.  Copper, JJC, was the key since it collapsed at the open today. Then the CRB followed along lower.  Commodities and copper were slapped due to the stronger dollar.  When the commodities and copper sell off so will the broader markets. Utilities, UTIL, remained flatish all day long and did not sell off.

The Friday session, and whether or not Keybot decides to move back to the long side, will depend on the action in JJC and CRB. The market bears want to see a higher dollar, the market bulls want to see a lower dollar, it is really that simple.  Watch JJC 48.80 and CRB 312.40. The quickest tell will be the CRB since price will open at 312.27 only 13 pennies on the bear side. The CRB moving back to the bull side should not be that important of an event but if JJC, now at 48.39, should move above 48.80, this will derail any bearish activities planned and the market bulls will quickly return to the drivers seat.

For the SPX, starting at 1393, the market bears need to move below the 1389 handle and the downside move will accelerate with a test of the 20-day MA at 1379.55 likely on tap.  The bulls would have to retrace today's move back up to reignite an upward acceleration, probably not likely, so instead, the bulls will focus on creating a weaker dollar which will cause copper and commodities to climb upwards and remove any threat of downward bearish momo.  A move thru SPX 1390-1401 is sideways action.

Very simply, a red dollar and bulls win or a green dollar and bears win. If the dollar is red, watch to see if JJC exceeds 48.80 and/or CRB exceeds 312.40. If both occur, along with a strong broad index move up with the SPX moving over 1400, Keybot would likely return to the long side, otherwise, the bears will continue to growl. Markets remain highly unstable. Caution is required.

3/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/22/12; 12:13 PM EST = +46; signal line is +63
3/22/12; 11:31 AM EST = +60; signal line is +64
3/22/12; 11:14 AM EST = +46; signal line is +65
3/22/12; 11:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66
3/22/12; 10:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +66
3/22/12; 10:51 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67; go short 1392; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.7%)(Keybot this trade = +2.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +5.2%)(Actual this trade = +1.0%; Actual for 2012 = +6.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the algorithm springs into action today, printing five additional numbers since the move to the short side two hours ago. Commodites and copper are now in the bear camp.  The stronger dollar is helping the bears. Oddly, the broad markets would be expected to take another strong leg down now but the markets are holding up. Watch UTIL 447 since that would signal further market weakness as well. The caution flag remains out until the follow thru in the downside occurs with the broad indexes. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

3/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/22/12; 12:13 PM EST = +46; signal line is +63
3/22/12; 11:31 AM EST = +60; signal line is +64
3/22/12; 11:14 AM EST = +46; signal line is +65
3/22/12; 11:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66
3/22/12; 10:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +66
3/22/12; 10:51 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67; go short 1392; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.7%)(Keybot this trade = +2.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +5.2%)(Actual this trade = +1.0%; Actual for 2012 = +6.8%)

Note Added 3/22/12 at 2:53 PM: Commodities and copper remain weak; UTIL remains above 447 after printing a 450 handle today.  SPX is testing a 1391 handle now but the broad indexes would be expected to be lower.  There is about one hour of trading remaining in the session.

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns Bearish from 3/22/12

3/22/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:51 AM EST at SPX 1392; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.7%; Keybot algo is up 5.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.8%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw. Watch JJC 49.80, CRB 312.50, UTIL 447.
3/8/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:04 PM at SPX 1364; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.4%; Keybot algo is up 3.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.
3/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 12:18 PM at SPX 1343; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.8%; Keybot algo is up 4.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.
2/16/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 1:10 PM at SPX 1356; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.8%; Keybot algo is up 5.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.2%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.
2/14/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:30 PM at SPX 1342; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.7%; Keybot algo is up 6.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 10.2%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.
1/1/12: The new year begins. For 2011, the SPX Benchmark is flat finishing up 0%; Keybot algo finished the year up 33%; Keybot actual trading ended the year up 37%. Keybot begins 2012 remaining long. The new year begins at SPX 1258.
12/20/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:49 PM at SPX 1240; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 1.4%; Keybot algo is up 31.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.5%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.
12/12/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:25 AM at SPX 1234; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 1.9%; Keybot algo is up 31.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 37.0%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at 10:51 AM EST at SPX 1392. Copper broke down this morning creating broad market weakness.  CRB is now testing the 312.50 level and if it fails significant further market weakness will result.  As always, stay on alert for a whipsaw over the next day or so.  The caution flag remains out. The bears are in control now. We will see what they got. The Keybot algorithm program gained 2% on the last move but the actual trading only gained a percent.

3/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/22/12; 10:51 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67; go short 1392; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.7%)(Keybot this trade = +2.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +5.2%)(Actual this trade = +1.0%; Actual for 2012 = +6.8%)
3/22/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67 but algorithm says stay long
3/20/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +68
3/18/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67
3/16/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +67
3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67
3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66
3/8/12; 12:04 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66; go long 1364; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.4%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.1%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2012 = +5.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but a turn appears imminent today. At the open, JJC lost the 48.90 level, so the algo wants to go short but internal programming rules are holding it back for now.  If the SPX drops under 1393, the algo will likely flip to the short side.  Watch CRB 312.50 now that JJC 48.90 failed.  Market bears need to push harder if they want it today; they are only a hair away.

3/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/22/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67 but algorithm says stay long
3/20/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +68
3/18/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and another day passes with the algo not printing any numbers during trading hours, but, that does not mean the day was without drama.  If you were watching the JJC 48.90 level of interest identified by the quant, today provided a low at 49.16, only 26 cents away form causing market mayhem but, alas, the bulls intervened and pushed copper higher to live another day.  JJC closed at 49.23.  The algo continues to monitor the copper sector and the same 48.90 level is in play for tomorrow.  Copper appears the most likely trigger to flip Keybot short at this time so watch JJC closely.

CRB 312.50 and UTIL 447 also remain levels of interest that the quant is currently scanning. For the SPX on Thursday, starting at 1403, the market bulls need to push up above 1407.75, if so, the broad markets will accelerate upwards for another leg higher.  The market bears need to push the SPX under 1400.75, if so, the broad markets will accelerate downwards, so the bears have a little more of an edge and will be looking for three red spoo points in the overnight futures.

Even though Keybot is long, and has been since mid-December sans two quickie one-day whipsaws, the quant is not giving the markets an all clear.  The caution flag continues to wave for these markets.  The broad indexes remain unstable. If JJC falls under 48.90 and the SPX loses the 1400.75 level, it is highly likely that Keybot would flip short. If you see a stronger dollar, copper should be weaker.

3/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/20/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +68
3/18/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long since the market bears could not get the job done today.  Utilites, UTIL, was the main focus of the quant as today's trading began, but UTIL actually gained a point and remained on the bull side positively effecting markets all day long.  The surprise today was the drastic drop in copper.  JJC dropped down to come within a hair of causing the algorithm to flip to the short side.  The levels of interest are continuously recalculated in real-time by the robot with the current danger level for JJC now at 48.90. The bears could not push the last few pennies to usher in serious broad market weakness.  For Wednesday, watch JJC 48.90, price begins at 49.27. The bears need 37 cents lower to initiate market mayhem otherwise the bulls continue to cruise.

The CRB is at 315.53 and if it drops three points to move under 312.50 that would also signal serious broad market trouble.  Both commodities and copper will only move lower if the dollar strengthens. For the SPX in the Wednesday trade, starting at 1405.52, the market bulls need to touch 1409.50 to accelerate the broad markets another leg higher.  The bears need to lose the 1398 handle if they want to ignite negativity in the markets.  A move thru 1399-1408 is sideways action.   The dollar will tell the story. Also watch UTIL 447 for the remainder of the week which will also usher in significant broad market weakness.  Thus, the market bears need either UTIL 447, JJC 48.90 or CRB 312.50, otherwise, the bulls remain in control. Markets remain unstable and are not to be trusted.  Extreme caution is required.

3/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/20/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +68
3/18/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67
3/16/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +67

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long to start the Tuesday trading session. Yesterday the bulls were in clover again as the dollar was weaker so commodities and copper were higher as well as equities.  At this writing the dollar is stronger, favoring market bears, commodities and copper are lower. For the CRB watch the 313 level. At a 317 handle now the bulls are four handles above danger.  Watch JJC, copper, the 49.10 level.  Today JJC starts above 50.

The sector to watch today is the utilities, UTIL. If the 447 level fails Keybot will likely flip to the short side. For the SPX today, starting at 1410, the bears need four points higher, to touch the 1414 level, and the upside will accelerate once again.  The futures are currently lower indicating a weak start. If the market bears drop the SPX under 1402.50, the broad markets will accelerate lower as large block sellers will enter the markets.  A move thru 1403-1413 is sideways action.

The pre-scheduled number printed moments ago resulting in a one tick up move in the signal line, continuing to close the spread between the algo number and signal line setting up the potential move to the short side; only 8 points difference now. Markets remain unstable. Stay cautious and watch UTIL 447 like a hawk. A turn may be imminent.

3/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/20/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +68
3/18/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67
3/16/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +67

Sunday, March 18, 2012

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to start the new trading week. There are ten trading days remaining in March which will close out Q1. Window dressing, where money managers buy the leadership stocks so the quarterly statements do not dissapoint investors (if they do not see the high-flyers listed--such as AAPL), may occur, thus, market buoyancy would be anticipated for the following week, the week of 3/26/12. So if the market bears want to play it will have to be this week.

Utilities sector weakened as bond yields rose, which is expected.  If UTIL loses the 447 handle, now at 453.60, about seven points higher, the broad markets will be in serious trouble.  Semiconductor, financial and retail sectors as well as low volatilty (extreme trader complacency and lack of fear) are leading the markets allowing the market bulls to glide along without a care.  If the broad markets pull back, a rising dollar would likely provide the catalyst, since copper and commodities should weaken and negativity impact the broad markets. Watch copper, JJC, the 48.85 level (now at 49.84), comfortably one point above which provides bull market support. Market trouble will be apparent if JJC drops under 49. China growth, or lack thereof, is key.

Watch commodities, CRB, the 312.75 level (now at 317.93), five points above danger. Keybot is fixated on the CRB and this would likely be the first area to crack should the broad markets decide to move lower.  Thus, the dollar and CRB should tell the tale. Market bulls want to see a weaker dollar and market bears want to see a stronger dollar.  The markets have shown some correleation of an up dollar with up equities in recent days but the last couple days the inverse relationship was back in sync.

For the SPX for Monday, starting at 1404, the tight range on Friday favors neither bulls or bears to start the week.  The market bulls need to touch the 1406 handle, if so, another upside acceleration leg will occur for markets, and this is important since the SPX is now starting to test resistance levels from 2008. The market bears need to push under 1401.50 to ignite the downside. A move thru 1402-1405 is sideways action but not expected, markets should make a decisoin one way or the other.  A couple points higher and bulls will strike up the band once again, but about three or so points lower and the bears will begin their own party. The futures markets overnight will provide an early indication.

Stay cautious, markets are unstable and erratic, potentially indicating a market top. The algorithm prints out one pre-sheduled number this week on Tuesday morning at 9:00 AM EST. Last week, Keybot did not print out any numbers during the week except for the pre-scheduled Friday number, which reinforced the market bull position, perhaps this week the quant will become much more active.

3/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/20/12; 9:00 AM EST =
3/18/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67
3/16/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +67

Saturday, March 17, 2012

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls perform an Irish jig on St. Patty's Day. The algo did not print any numbers the entire week except for the pre-scheduled number yesterday. This shows the bulls in control and the markets in idle mode.  As always, however, things can change in a heartbeat. The weakness in utes must be watched over the next couple weeks.  As yields creep higher in Treasuries the last few days, utilities weakened.  For the next two weeks, thru the end of March, the UTIL 446-447 level is critical. So jot 447 on a piece of paper to watch for the new week ahead.  UTIL is at 453.60, about 7 points above the 447 level which will signal serious broad market trouble if/when it fails.

The dollar is key. The market bulls are happy with the weaker dollar which boosts commodites, copper and equities.  The last few days the dollar was moving more in sync with equities but that relationship is not expected to last.  Very simply, market bulls want to see the dollar weakness continue, market bears want to see a stronger dollar which will push commodities, copper and equities markets lower.

Once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow, the new week can be set up in more detail. Markets are erratic and not to be trusted with a large move down for the broad indexes on the table and a distinct possibilty.

3/18/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/16/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +67
3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67
3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66
3/8/12; 12:04 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66; go long 1364; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.4%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.1%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2012 = +5.8%)

Friday, March 16, 2012

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bullish party continues in front of the St. Patrick's Day weekend. The bulls kept the futures slightly on the green side and popped above 1403 so the upside accelerated, the HOD thus far at 1405.82, but, all things considered, the upside should have had more steam.  AAPL is red today, and the tech sector is not leading the broad market to the upside (tech actually wants to lead down today), so that explains why the upside move is muted.

Keybot printed the pre-scheduled number for the week which results in no change. What a big change for the quant this week.  Last week was chaos with numbers printing off faster than Chairman Bernanke can print money, then this week, the algo did not print any numbers, only the pre-scheduled number minutes ago. Things can change fast again so stay alert. The dollar has not strengthened so CRB remains elevated and the bears hopes of moving lower remain on hold.  The bulls remain in control today so far, the bears got nothing unless you see either CRB 313 or SPX 1393. Otherwise, the bulls river dance an Irish jig into the weekend. Markets remain unstable and are not to be trusted.

3/18/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/16/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +67
3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67
3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66
3/8/12; 12:04 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66; go long 1364; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.4%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.1%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2012 = +5.8%)

Thursday, March 15, 2012

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long. The bulls keep moving the SPX higher.  The algorithm is most interested in commodities right now, the CRB 313 level. The bulls are keeping the CRB about three points above which allows them to maintain broad market buoyancy.  The key is the dollar since CRB will move up on the weaker dollar favoring bulls, or the dollar will move higher which will drive the CRB lower, and perhaps under 313, that would begin market trouble.

For the SPX for Friday's trade, starting at 1403, the bulls only need to see green futures overnight and tomorrow will be another bull run into the weekend. Overhead resistance is 1406, 1407, 1409 and 1413.  The market bears need to keep the overnight futures red at all costs to stop the upside market momo.  If the futures are red in the morning, then the bears must push the SPX under 1393 which would accelerate market negativity.  The SPX will likely fall down thru 1391 support and then test 1389 or 1386 support.  A move thru 1394-1402 is sideways action.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the market action can be assessed at that time. 10 AM is expected ot be a market pivot point. Large volume at the open, and at the close, would be expected due to the Quadruple Witching OpEx so do not mistake this as confirmation by the markets in favor of any bull or bear move. Stay alert, the equities markets remain unstable. The caution flag remains out since a move of CRB under 313 and SPX under 1393 would likely result in the quant flipping to the short side.

3/18/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/16/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67
3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66
3/8/12; 12:04 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66; go long 1364; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.4%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.1%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2012 = +5.8%)

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after another day of idling along without printing any numbers. The markets moved sideways today after the upside orgy yesterday.  Weakness in the utilities sector was quite dramatic today, UTIL dropping to a 454 handle now only ten points above the dangerous 444 level for this week, which represents where the broad markets will fall into trouble. In addition to watching UTIL 444 for the remaining two days this week, also watch commodities and copper, CRB 313 (now at 315.17) and JJC 48.75 (now at 49.24). The dollar was up today, euro down, gold down, copper down, commodities down, oil down, equities down (SPX), which is the expected relationship, so the potential asset relationship change over the last three or four days where the dollar and equities move in the same direction now appears to be a blip.

For the SPX for Thursday, starting at 1394, the market bulls need to touch the magical 1400 handle. Today the bulls came within 58 pennies, and failed. If 1400 hits, an upside acceleration move will occur.  The market bears need to push four points lower, to see the 1390 handle disappear, if so, the downside will accelerate in short order.  A move thru 1391-1399 is sideways behavior.  Markets are unstable, stay cautious. Watch UTIL 444, JJC 48.75 and CRB 313, if any of these three fail, the bears will regain control of the markets and push them lower, otherwise, the bulls are cruising.

3/18/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/16/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67
3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66
3/8/12; 12:04 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66; go long 1364; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.4%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.1%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2012 = +5.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long thru yesterday's melt-up move and into the Wednesday session today. The bombshell surprise with the release of bank stress test results two days ahead of time, JPM and BAC catapulting late day equities markets higher with the SPX exploding into the 1390's. The algorithm simply idled along all day on the long side without printing any numbers thus far this week.

The nearest risk to the rally is shown by commodities; watch CRB 313 but price is at 318 comfortably above. Also, the dollar and commodities are moving together the last few days so the stronger dollar has not slapped back commodities, at least for now.  Utilites also exploded higher, UTIL now at 461 handily above the 444 danger level for this week.  So, the bulls are cruising.

For the SPX today, starting at 1396, the market bulls are in good shape to move the broad markets higher since they closed them at the highs yesterday.  Thus, any hint of green futures should launch another move higher with a test of the 1400 psychological level next. The market bears will simply try to stop the upside momo.  Yesterday's move would need to be retraced for the bears to regain strong negativity.  A move thru 1373-1395 is sideways action today.  Markets remain unstable, stay alert and cautious, the broad indexes can turn on a dime and yesterday simply pulled forward what would have been a Friday rally. Current markets are not to be trusted. Keybot remains long. 

3/18/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/16/12; 10:00 AM EST =
3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67
3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66
3/8/12; 12:04 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66; go long 1364; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.4%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.1%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2012 = +5.8%)