Saturday, March 31, 2012

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short thru the weekend.  The final week of March results in a flip to the long side on Monday, then back to the short side on Wednesday where the quant remains. The bulls and bears are fighting for control of the markets and the market bears are currently winning.  The final Friday closing print ends the week, the month of March and the first quarter, Q1.  The algo did not print any additonal numbers on Friday other than the pre-sheduled number that clicked off at 10 AM.

Copper, commodities and utilities are the most important sectors to watch in the days ahead. Commodities are now in the bear camp, copper fell into the bear camp causing the algo to shift to the bear side on Wednesday, but recovered slightly and is in the bull camp but only by a smidge.  The utes should fall into the bear camp a few minutes after Monday's opening bell, as long as a gap up does not occur, and this will lower the algo number moving Keybot more to the bearish side.

Next week's levels of interest can be identified after the standard Sunday number prints tomorrow. The bears are in control now; a potential game changer for the bulls would be better than expected China PMI data this weekend which would bounce copper and commodities. However, with the trouble in utilities on tap for next week, the bears may be able to keep their claws in the bull anyway. Thus, watch for the China PMI and what affect it may, or may not, have on the Sunday algorithm print.

4/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/12; 10:00 AM EST = +62; signal line is +66
3/29/12; 3:14 PM EST = +62; signal line is +66
3/28/12; 12:17 PM EST = +46; signal line is +66
3/28/12; 10:33 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67; go short 1409; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +12.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.3%; Actual for 2012 = +5.2%)

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