STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the short side but here we go again. Keybot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 1 point above the signal line but the internal parameters would not yet latch to permit the move. There is some nutso sideways choppy price action going on. The bulls goosed the semi's and the banks to create the afternoon surge higher in equities.

The stock market bears must push XLF back below 30.32 and SOX below 1830.45 as soon as possible. Either one turning bearish will stop the stock market rally. Both turning bearish would create momentum selling to the downside.

The bulls simply need the SPX to move above 3286 (starting the Friday session at 3284), only 2 points, to likely flip Keybot long. Humorously, this is the mirror image of last evening when the bears only needed 1 point lower. Same dealio. Bulls will benefit from a slow move higher in the SPX not a gap-up move which may trigger a timer and delay the move to the long side.

Bulls will be golden if the RTH moves above 119.96 and/or the VIX below 13.68. Thus, the Friday battle lines are drawn. Bears need weaker chips and banks. Bulls need stronger retail stocks and lower volatility. One of them will flinch and paint the path ahead. Markets are in a sloppy chop.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after tomorrow's opening bell. Bulls should watch the S&P futures overnight to see if they can muster up a couple positive points, or not.

2/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

1/31/20; 10:00 AM EST =

1/30/20; 3:01 PM EST = +40; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
1/30/20; 2:15 PM EST = +24; signal line is +39

1/30/20; 12:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +40

1/30/20; 11:24 AM EST = +24; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 3250 a short time ago. There is lots of strangeness going on in markets right now. The gap down open activated a timer that delayed the quant from flipping short, however, the deterioration in the stock market forced the move mid-morning. The chips failed into the bear camp at the bull-bear line in the sand at SOX 1830.60 but has since recovered.

Stock market direction is determined currently by a battle between the retail stocks and banks versus the chips. Bulls need the RTH above 119.96 and/or XLF above 30.32. If this occurs, the stock market selling will immediately stop and the bulls will begin a relief rally.

Bears need the chips to roll back over and for the SOX to take out 1830.60. If that happens today, stocks may get flushed down the toilet. SOX is trading at 1836 right now at munch time. The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it; all they need to do is squash the chips. Bears need to send the SOX 6 points lower and all Hades would break loose in the stock market; the carnage would begin.

Bulls have to keep the semiconductors elevated or they are dead meat.

The last trade only ran for 9 hours and 36 minutes so it is characterized as a whipsaw by the quant. Therefore, the robot drops down into the single 1x ETF mode and will not reenter 2x ETF's for at least 35 days. Keybot is a smart robot and must think that choppy markets are ahead which chew up bulls and bears alike. The single ETF's will reduce risk. Keybot exits QLD and enters SH. The benchmark S&P 500 has a smidgeon of a gain on the year. The Keybot computer program is up +1.6% on the year and the actual trading generated by Keybot is up +9% thus far this year.

2/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

1/31/20; 10:00 AM EST =

1/30/20; 11:24 AM EST = +24; signal line is +42

1/30/20; 10:50 AM EST = +8; signal line is +43
1/30/20; 10:40 AM EST = +24; signal line is +46; go short 3250; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +1.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.4%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +9.0%)

1/29/20; 3:54 PM EST = +24; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains long
1/29/20; 3:05 PM EST = +40; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long

1/29/20; 10:21 AM EST = +56; signal line is +49

1/29/20; 10:06 AM EST = +40; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long

1/29/20; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +50

1/28/20; 3:51 PM EST = +40; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

1/28/20; 3:30 PM EST = +56; signal line is +51

1/28/20; 3:13 PM EST = +40; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long

1/28/20; 2:14 PM EST = +56; signal line is +53; go long 3283; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +1.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.6%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +2.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = +0.8%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +10.4%)

Note Added 12:28 PM EST: Here we go. SOX is down to 1831 coming in for a test of the critical 1830.60. Strap yourself in. Attach crash helmets. Let's see what the bears got......... 1831.49 .....  1830.30... boom .....hold on to your hat........the SOX 1830.45 number is the exact bull-bear pivot  point... it is for all the marbles ...... SOX is currently printing at 1830.53.... the bull-bear battle is at a climax ..... the swords are rattling and both are at the top of the castle wall ..... one of them is about to fall over the edge...... the bears take a stab... 1830.29...... 1830.24 ... the bulls may be wounded...... oh my, the bull drops its sword as the blood is beginning to flow...... 1829-handle..... the bull springs back to life like the end of a scary movie....1830.08 ...... perhaps a little back kiss.... 1829...... we may see something very special in markets this afternoon....... whoopsies daisies...... 1828-handle..... do you hear a toilet flushing in the background?

Note Added 12:39 PM EST: There she goes. SOX fails; now printing 1825. Time to focus.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the bull side as the battle rages on. The bears stick two shivs in the bulls gut into the closing bell today but it is not yet enough to flip the model short. Keybot is champing at the bit to go short but the internal parameters will not yet permit the move. The algo number is 23 big points below the signal line so the quant wants to be short.

If the SPX falls below 3272 (starting the Thursday session at 3273), so only one negative point lower, Keybot will likely flip short. The bulls must immediately push RTH above 119.95 and/or XLF above 30.32, either one would do, to stop the stock market selling. Bulls also benefit from lower volatility and if the VIX drops below 13.72.

If RTH and XLF remain bearish, stocks will fall apart, and if the chips then collapse, equities will drop down the rabbit hole. Bears need SOX below 1834 (now at 1859) to send the stock market into a tailspin. If the SOX fails, you will need to get the women and children inside and batten down the hatches; it will get ugly fast.

What does all that mumbo-jumbo mean? Keybot will likely flip short if the SPX begins the day negative and trends lower. A gap-down move in the SPX would not be helpful for bears since this may delay the quant flipping to the short side. A slow move lower is what the bears need during the Thursday session (in the beginning) and that will lead to a quicker drop after the robot locks-in the downside.

Bears win if they can turn chips negative sending the SOX below 1834; carnage will begin. Bulls will rejoice if they can push retail stocks and banks higher, volatility lower, and keep the semiconductors elevated and away from the bears grasp. As a side note with the chips, if SOX fails into the bear camp, especially out of the gate or in early trading, the quant may immediately flip short without hesitation, time will tell. This would be due to a subroutine running that identifies when the stock market is quickly deteriorating; if that situation is triggered, Keybot will immediate flip short.

It's on a silver platter if the stock market bears want it. Watch the overnight futures to see if the bears can scare up a negative point in the S&P's. Listen for any news on the large retailers and the banks since that will directly impact stock market direction. Watch and listen for any news on those chips. S&P futures are trading up +4.

2/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

1/31/20; 10:00 AM EST =

1/29/20; 3:54 PM EST = +24; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains long

1/29/20; 3:05 PM EST = +40; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long

1/29/20; 10:21 AM EST = +56; signal line is +49

1/29/20; 10:06 AM EST = +40; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long

1/29/20; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +50

1/28/20; 3:51 PM EST = +40; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side on Tuesday, 1/28/20, in the afternoon at SPX 3283. The bulls goosed the retail stocks and banks to push stocks higher. The Fed started applying its jackboot onto the throat of volatility, sinking the VIX, which also squeezes out more upside price action for stocks. The algo was very active in the Tuesday session printing 10 numbers including the pre-scheduled number.

Despite the algo on the long side, the bears have the upper hand stabbing the banks in the ribs with a shiv right before the stock market closed. The algo number is 11 points below the signal line so Keybot is champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the short side. If the SPX drops below 3253 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn is in the title line. As the banks go, so goes the stock market. Bulls need XLF above 30.32 to continue the relief rally.

Bears must keep the financials weak with XLF remaining below 30.32, while pulling retail stocks lower. Bears need RTH below 119.96 to restart the stock market negativity.

Bulls need the VIX below 13.60, if this occurs, stocks will be catapulting higher. If the stock market rallies today, but the VIX does not go sub 13.60, it is a fake-out move and stocks will likely weaken again. The VIX is currently trading at the 15.51 palindrome three hours before the opening bell for the regular US hump day trading session.

Thus, bulls win by keeping retail stocks strong, rallying the banks and pushing volatility lower. Bears win by keeping the banks weak, slapping the retailers lower and pushing volatility higher.

Stay alert for a whipsaw in these erratic markets. It will be unfortunate for both bulls and bears if markets go into a sideways choppy pattern for a few weeks since that only serves to turn everyone into mince meat and chop suey. If XLF moves above 30.32, the bulls will be in firm control of the stock market.

On the last trade, which ran about four days, the algo program gains +0.6% and the actual trading gains +0.8%. For the year thus far, after 3-1/2 weeks of trading, the S&P 500 benchmark index is up +1.6%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up almost +3% and the actual trading generated by Keybot is up over +10%. Keybot exits QID and enters QLD remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

Remember, as the banks go, so goes the markets. S&P futures are up +8. Also remember, if stocks rally, but the VIX cannot drop below 13.60, equities will likely weaken again going forward. You can also use VIX 14.97 as an early signal; below 14.93 tells you the bulls are strong and gathering strength. If the bulls cannot push the VIX below 14.97, they got butpkis. The beat goes on.

2/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

1/31/20; 10:00 AM EST =

1/28/20; 3:51 PM EST = +40; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

1/28/20; 3:30 PM EST = +56; signal line is +51

1/28/20; 3:13 PM EST = +40; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long

1/28/20; 2:14 PM EST = +56; signal line is +53; go long 3283; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +1.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.6%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +2.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = +0.8%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +10.4%)

1/28/20; 1:40 PM EST = +40; signal line is +55

1/28/20; 11:57 AM EST = +56; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short

1/28/20; 11:13 AM EST = +40; signal line is +58

1/28/20; 10:38 AM EST = +56; signal line is +60
1/28/20; 10:22 AM EST = +40; signal line is +61
1/28/20; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +62
1/27/20; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +65
1/26/20; 7:00 PM EST = +56; signal line is +66

1/24/20; 3:54 PM EST = +56; signal line is +68

1/24/20; 3:45 PM EST = +40; signal line is +68

1/24/20; 3:08 PM EST = +56; signal line is +70

1/24/20; 3:02 PM EST = +40; signal line is +70

1/24/20; 2:07 PM EST = +24; signal line is +72
1/24/20; 2:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +74
1/24/20; 11:24 AM EST = +56; signal line is +75

1/24/20; 11:04 AM EST = +70; signal line is +76

1/24/20; 10:35 AM EST = +56; signal line is +75

1/23/20; 1:25 PM EST = +70; signal line is +76
1/23/20; 1:06 PM EST = +56; signal line is +75
1/23/20; 12:14 PM EST = +70; signal line is +76

1/23/20; 11:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +75
1/23/20; 10:34 AM EST = +70; signal line is +76
1/23/20; 10:27 AM EST = +56; signal line is +76
1/23/20; 10:12 AM EST = +70; signal line is +76

1/23/20; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +76; go short 3304; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +2.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.3%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +2.3%)(Actual trading results this trade = +9.6%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +9.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short heading into the new week of trading; the last week of January. The month of trading ends on Friday, 1/31/20, EOM, and February trading will begin Monday, 2/3/20.

The bears are in charge of the stock market but the bulls pushed back late-day Friday. The algo number is 10 points below the signal line. Interestingly, the SPX fell from 3333 to 3281 intraday Friday; a big 52 point retreat. The bulls and bears continue to battle, however, and perhaps after this week a clearer winner will surface.

Very simply, bulls need lower volatility and they will ride the glory train to new stock market highs. Bears need weaker retail and bank stocks and they will begin slashing off chunks of bull flesh. Bulls need VIX below 13.58 (now at 14.56) and they will throw confetti and claim victory going forward.

Bears need RTH below 119.93 (now at 120.10) and/or XLF below 30.31 (now at 30.39) and they will celebrate stock market carnage. Either one of the two will immediately sicken the stock market and if both turn bearish, the stock market will take out Friday's lows and begin falling in earnest.

If VIX remains in the bear camp, and RTH and XLF in the bull camp, status quo, stocks will chop sideways with a slight downward bias. One of these three characters is going to flinch and that will immediately tell you the path forward for the stock market. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST so that will provide a heads-up for the trading day ahead in the States.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. The table is set. The battle lines are drawn. The bulls need rich Uncle Fed and the other central bankers to press their jackboots against the throat of volatility to create stock market joy. The bears need to hear bad news on the retailers and banks overnight.

The caution flag is out. If the VIX goes sub 13.58, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and then if the SPX moves above 3333, which would be a huge 38 point up day for the S&P 500 on Monday, Keybot will likely flip back to the long side.

The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. All they have to do is pound the retailers and banks. If they do, they win, if not, they got buptkis and will fold like a cheap suit. This week may write epic stock market history. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

2/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

1/31/20; 10:00 AM EST =

1/28/20; 10:00 AM EST =

1/26/20; 7:00 PM EST = +56; signal line is +66

1/24/20; 3:54 PM EST = +56; signal line is +68

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short to end the week. Bulls and bears decide on a truce for the weekend but Monday the war will resume. The bulls jammed the retail stocks and banks higher into the closing bell creating the intraday recovery of stocks off their worst levels.

For Monday, it will be simple. Bulls need lower volatility and that will lead the way to a resumption of the multi-month stock market rally. Bears need lower retail stocks and banks which will flush the stock market down the toilet. One side or the other will flinch.

The bears are in charge of stock market direction currently with the algo number 12 points below the signal line. The quant was active during the Friday session printing nine numbers. The caution flag is out since the bulls do not plan to roll over and die peacefully; they plan on fighting. The Fed will be jamming volatility lower trying to right the market ship on Monday.

1/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =

1/24/20; 3:54 PM EST = +56; signal line is +68

1/24/20; 3:45 PM EST = +40; signal line is +68

1/24/20; 3:08 PM EST = +56; signal line is +70

1/24/20; 3:02 PM EST = +40; signal line is +70

1/24/20; 2:07 PM EST = +24; signal line is +72

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Both retail stocks and banks give up the ghost creating the downside drop in stocks. Bulls are trying to push RTH back above the key 119.93 level and XLF back above the key 30.31 level to prevent a bloodbath. These two parameters tell you everything you need to know about stock market direction.

The bears are in charge with the algo number now 48 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising. Strap yourself in for the remainder of the day keeping water and rations handy. If the retail stocks and banks remain in the bear camp, there will be H*ll to pay into the closing bell. The SPX is at 3289.

1/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =

1/24/20; 2:07 PM EST = +24; signal line is +72

1/24/20; 2:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +74

1/24/20; 11:24 AM EST = +56; signal line is +75

Note Added 2:17 PM EST: SPX 3285. VIX 15.58. XLF 30.25. RTH 119.90. Goodnight Irene, Irene goodnight.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The quant continues to be active this week printing three numbers thus far today. Stocks were still joyous after yesterday afternoon but negative news on the coronavirus sends equities lower today. You saw that commodities and copper remain weak, so you knew stocks would roll back over to the downside. The bears are in control with the algo number 19 points below the signal line.

Volatility spikes higher with the VIX poking above the critical 13.58 level now at 14.14. Volatility pops so stocks drop. The bears are growling today; it is not overwhelming, but they are taking a bite of bull flesh and nibbling on it.

Bulls need VIX below 13.58 pronto to stop the stock market selling. Bulls must also push copper and commodities higher if they want to take the stock market higher.

Bears need weaker retail stocks and banks to begin accelerating the stock market south. Bears need RTH below 120.00 and/or XLF under 30.31. Either one failing into the bear camp will create immediate sickness in stocks with a big leg lower. The other parameter will quickly follow and stocks would likely fall apart.

The battle lines are drawn. Bulls need lower volatility and higher copper and commodities. Bears need to sustain higher volatility while punching the retail stocks and banks in the face. Bulls will cheer if they can get the VIX back below 13.58. Bears win going forward if the VIX remains above 14 climbing higher. No doubt the central banks are in there right now.

1/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =

1/24/20; 11:24 AM EST = +56; signal line is +75
1/24/20; 11:04 AM EST = +70; signal line is +76

1/24/20; 10:35 AM EST = +56; signal line is +75

1/23/20; 1:25 PM EST = +70; signal line is +76

Note Added 1:38 PM EST: The banks are failing causing the drastic dips in the stock market. XLF came down to kiss the 30.31 level that Keybot called out ahead of time, and bounced, now it rolled over again and is coming back down for another look. XLF is at 30.33 only 2 points in the bull camp. If XLF fails at 30.31, you will see a big flush lower in the stock market. It is ony pennies away. The bulls must hold the line at XLF 30.31 and prevent it from failing. The drama continues..... it is in the bank's hands now ........ 30.35 .... 30.33 .....30.32........ ho, whoa, ho, here's 30.31, this tells you the fate of the stock market for the remainder of the day.........bounce or die......

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side with copper and commodities providing the double-barreled bear power. News reports in the afternoon downplay the coronavirus so traders strip off their face masks and shun the antibacterial soap and begin buying stocks like madmen. Copper and commodities remain weak. Bulls need to push CPER above 17.36 (now at 17.14) and GTX above 2510 (now at 2458) to regain control of the stock market.

The bears are in control with the algo number 6 points below the signal line. Bears need to keep copper and commodities in the bear camp while pushing volatility higher. The Fed has their footprint all over the VIX today jamming it lower to pop equities. Bears need VIX above 13.58 (now at 12.98). Isn't it a nice touch that the market makers painted the VIX with a 12-handle?; like putting lipstick on a pig.

The battle lines are set in stone. Bulls win with higher copper and commodities. Bears win with higher volatility. Who will win? Watch the copper futures overnight and the VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST which will provide an early heads-up on the way forward.

If GTX or CPER turns bullish, either one would do, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and then if the SPX is trading above 3327 and trending higher, Keybot would likely whipsaw back to the long side. As copper goes, so goes the market. Tomorrow, Friday, we see what the bears are truly made of; the ball is in their hands.

1/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =

1/23/20; 1:25 PM EST = +70; signal line is +76

1/23/20; 1:06 PM EST = +56; signal line is +75

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side and volatility continues to battle at the VIX 13.58 line in the sand. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 19 points below the signal line. Keep watching VIX 13.58; it will tell you a lot. The VIX is at 13.62, in the bear camp, causing negativity in the stock market.

1/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =

1/23/20; 1:06 PM EST = +56; signal line is +75

1/23/20; 12:14 PM EST = +70; signal line is +76

1/23/20; 11:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +75

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 3304 after the opening bell. After several weeks of drama (look at how many times the quant threatened to go short below), Keybot the Quant calmly slips into the bear camp without fanfare. Copper fails this morning and volatility spikes higher creating negativity in the equities market. The VIX beachball, that Fed Chairman Powell fights to keep underwater each day, slipped from his hands and jumps higher.

Volatility is playing around to and fro on the VIX 13.58 bull-bear line in the sand identified by Keybot. This tells you a lot about market direction. VIX is printing at 13.80 in real-time as this is typed, in the bear camp, creating stock market negativity.

Copper and commodities are looking quite soggy, both in the bear camp, so a whipsaw move would not be anticipated, but, as always, Keybot only sees 1's and 0's and anything can happen, even a whipsaw back to the long side. For now, the bears are in the driver's seat after the long multi-month Federal Reserve money pump. The algo number is 19 points below the signal line.

Bulls must push the VIX below 13.58 immediately and GTX above 2512 and CPER above 17.36. Bulls will likely need at least 2 of these 3 parameters back in the bull camp to stop the bleeding going forward. Now we see what the bears got.

On the last trade, which is the first direction change for Keybot this year, the algo program gains +2.3% the same as the benchmark S&P 500 index thus far this year. The actual trading is up almost +10% already this year, in only 3 weeks time; a smart person would pull the plug on Keybot the Quant and go to the beach the rest of the year focusing on exciting tanned bodies instead of boring computer printouts.

The outperformance in the actual trading is due to the 2x tech ETF QLD. Investors are tripping over each other to buy tech stocks. That hints that a lot of young people, making lots of dough working at tech companies, are buying what they think they know (tech companies). Idiots. They will get their heads handed to them as the year plays out. Keybot exits QLD and enters QID the 2x inverse tech ETF (QID moves up twice as fast as tech stocks move lower, or, it collapses twice as much if tech stocks move higher).

1/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =

1/23/20; 11:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +75

1/23/20; 10:34 AM EST = +70; signal line is +76

1/23/20; 10:27 AM EST = +56; signal line is +76

1/23/20; 10:12 AM EST = +70; signal line is +76

1/23/20; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +76; go short 3304; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +2.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.3%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +2.3%)(Actual trading results this trade = +9.6%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +9.6%)
1/22/20; 1:33 PM EST = +86; signal line is +76
1/22/20; 10:50 AM EST = +70; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long

1/22/20; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +77
1/19/20; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +77

1/17/20; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +76

1/17/20; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +76

1/14/20; 3:59 PM EST = +88; signal line is +75

1/14/20; 10:08 AM EST = +72; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long

1/14/20; 9:41 AM EST = +88; signal line is +75

1/13/20; 3:51 PM EST = +72; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long

1/13/20; 2:32 PM EST = +88; signal line is +75

1/13/20; 1:02 PM EST = +72; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains long

1/13/20; 12:37 PM EST = +88; signal line is +76

1/12/20; 7:00 PM EST = +72; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long

1/10/20; 12:00 PM EST = +72; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long

1/10/20; 11:15 AM EST = +88; signal line is +77

1/10/20; 9:00 AM EST = +72; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long

1/8/20; 7:50 AM EST = +72; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long

1/8/20; 7:15 AM EST = +58; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long

1/8/20; 6:43 AM EST = +72; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long

1/8/20; 3:06 AM EST = +58; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long

1/7/20; 10:12 AM EST = +72; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains long

1/7/20; 8:40 AM EST = +58; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains long

1/6/20; 3:48 PM EST = +72; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains long

1/6/20; 3:38 PM EST = +58; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains long
1/6/20; 3:02 PM EST = +72; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long

1/6/20; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long

1/6/20; 3:06 AM EST = +74; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long

1/5/20; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +75

1/3/20; 9:41 AM EST = +88; signal line is +75

1/3/20; 3:06 AM EST = +74; signal line is +73

1/1/20; Begin 2020 Data Set = +88; signal line is +71; go long 3231; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = 0%)(Actual trading results this trade = 0%; Actual trading results for 2020 = 0%)

Keybot the Quant Begins 2020 on the Long Side from SPX 3231. All Data 0%. Begin 2020.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3337.77 on Wednesday, 1/22/20, and then falls on its sword. The bears, however, once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Bears had the stock market on a silver platter yesterday but simply did not have the juice to get the job done; it must be all that eggnog, and cookies, desserts and the holiday cheer aftermath weighing the fur-bearers down.

The market makers jammed copper higher in the afternoon yesterday to prevent the bears from taking over control of the stock market direction. The fix was in at 1:30 PM EST. The bulls remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 10 points above the signal line.

However, it is not all wine and roses for the bulls. Copper is teetering on the edge of falling back into the bear camp. Bears need CPER below 17.36 to create market gloom which is only 4 pennies lower. This represents about a -0.2% drop in copper and the copper futures are currently down -0.3% so the bears are smiling.

Bears would also benefit from VIX moving above 13.58. VIX is currently trading at 13.20 as this message is typed about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the regular US Thursday trading session. Bears got nothing unless they can pump the VIX another 38 cents higher. The Fed and other central bankers maintain their jackboots on the throat of volatility.

Commodities are in a stealth 3-week collapse. The novel coronavirus is adding to the retreat. Bulls must keep copper and commodities elevated to keep the stock market elevated. Bulls need to keep CPER above 17.36 and must push GTX back above 2512. GTX failed into the bear camp yesterday creating the market sogginess that extends into this morning. S&P futures are down -2.

The sick commodities are casting a pall over the stock market that could do no wrong for the last four months (since stocks are always supported by rich Uncle Fed to protect the wealthy privileged class). Looking at current price conditions, bulls need stronger commodities while bears need weaker copper and higher volatility. For the remainder of the week, as copper goes, so goes the stock market.

Thus, copper is set to fail back into the bear camp at the opening bell if the current copper futures remain weak. This will set the algo up to flip short again, however, the quant likely needs to see the SPX below 3320 and trending lower to flip short. The SPX begins the Thursday session at 3322 so the bears only need 2 down points on the S&P 500 to wreak havoc (as long as copper remains and becomes weaker). The imminent turn notation remains in the title line and Keybot the Quant could potentially flip short after the opening bell. Time will tell. Pay attention to copper.

1/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =

1/22/20; 1:33 PM EST = +86; signal line is +76
1/22/20; 10:50 AM EST = +70; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short again. The SPX prints another all-time record high at 3338.

Commodities and copper are in retreat today creating stock market negativity. Copper, CPER, sits directly on the bull-bear line in the sand at 17.36. The copper pivot will take the stock market in the same direction. As copper goes, so goes the market.

Bears will benefit from GTX remaining below 2512 and CPER remaining below 17.36. Bears will also benefit if they can send the VIX above 13.58. Bulls simply need to pull GTX and CPER back into the bull camp as fast as possible, otherwise, stocks will begin taking on serious water.

The imminent turn notation is in the title line again since the algo number is 6 points below the signal line wanting to go short. If the SPX drops below 3317, Keybot the Quant will llikely flip short. Also, interestingly, if the VIX popped to 13.58, the algo may immediately flip short regardless of the SPX price. The SPX is at 3330 so the bears need to create 13 points of downside. The stock market is on a silver platter if the bears want it. Do they want it? The copper direction tells you the answer.

1/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =

1/22/20; 10:50 AM EST = +70; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long

1/22/20; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +77

1/19/20; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +77

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long; the beat goes on. Everyday is a par-tay. The SPX begins the week at record highs a hair from 3330. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 23 points above the signal line. The quant is pegged at the +100 maximum ceiling; these are historic and epic market times that will be talked about for years to come. Keybot cannot move any higher; it is at maximum bullish euphoria.

The two parameters most impacting broad stock market direction are commodities and volatility. Both are in the bull camp right now creating upside joy for equities. Bears need GTX below 2513 and VIX above 13.70. Either parameter turning bearish will immediately stop the stock market rally. If both remain bullish, stocks will continue floating higher and producing more record highs.

The imminent turn notation is not in the title line since the bulls are cruising, however, if both of the parameters above turn bearish, and if the SPX dips below 3319 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. If 1 of the 2 parameters turn bearish, consider the 'imminent turn' to the short side to be in play and it will appear in the title line again.

US markets are closed tomorrow (Monday) for Dr Martin Luther King Day, or MLK Day so a four-day holiday-shortened week is ahead. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week.

1/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =

1/19/20; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +77

1/17/20; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +76

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION; Keybot the Quant Tags Maximum +100 Reading; Federal Reserve Papers-Over Housing Recession

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market circus plays on. Keybot prints the maximum +100 number which is astonishing. The only way that would happen is if the housing data reported blow-out ridiculous numbers--and this occurs. The quant has identified a housing recession in progress since last July. The Fed is not stupid. They saw the same trouble coming and with the liquidity event occurring in September, the Fed started printing money like madmen to save the day. The central bank succeeded in papering-over the housing recession that was set to begin in earnest. The easy money delays the housing recession signal for a couple-few months but it will probably roll back over again.

This development is profound since that housing recession and housing recovery tool is a very long period indicator and never backpedals; until now. This behavior verifies the power of the Federal Reserve. The QE program during Q4 into 2020 boosts the stock market and pumps the economy out of its malaise-of-no-return it was about to fall into. These are not your grandfather's markets. It's all sick central bank stuff all the time.

The S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high 3329.88 and new all-time closing high at 3329.62 on Friday, 1/17/20. The bulls are unstoppable.

The bulls goosed utilities in mid-December and last week which creates the parabolic price move higher in the stock indexes. That drama was described as it occurred over the last month. So the stock market bulls are feeling pretty good now. The wine is flowing like water and any stock with a heartbeat is moving higher.

Bears need higher volatility and lower commodities if they want to reverse the market euphoria. One thing the bears may find solace in is that the +100 number has no possible direction to go in except down. The bulls are in charge of the stock market with the algo number 24 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising so the imminent turn notation is removed, for now, however, the caution flag remains out.

Epic and historic economic and market history is being written in real-time. The price action is very erratic and unstable. Markets are closed on Monday for Dr Martin Luther King Jr Day, or MLK Day, which provided buoyancy to stocks to end the week. Just think, the stock market may be on the precipice of a significant and historic event occurring on Tuesday or the days following. Keybot the Quant has been long the stock market since 12/4/19.

1/19/20; 7:00 PM EST =
1/17/20; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +76

1/17/20; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +76

1/14/20; 3:59 PM EST = +88; signal line is +75

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. Each time the bears poke their head above the foxhole, they are punched in the face. The bulls are in charge of the stock market direction with the algo number 13 points above the signal line. The SPX prints another new all-time record high at 3298.66, a smidgeon from 3.3K, and an all-time closing high at 3289.29 on Wednesday, 1/15/20. Keybot did not print any numbers in the hump day session.

The bulls have whipped the bears into submission. The vertical spike in the utilities is a dagger through the bear's gut. The quant is tracking volatility and commodities as the two main parameters currently dictating broad stock market direction. Bears need VIX above 13.70 and/or GTX below 2513. If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX slips below 3281 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short, hence, the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. These are erratic and unstable markets these days.

If volatility and commodities remain in the bull camp, the stock market will continue floating along sideways with an upward bias. S&P futures are up +12 with the VIX going sub 12 down to 11.90. The bulls slap the bears in the face again. Slap, slap. Floor traders anxiously await their "SPX 3.3K" hats at the opening bell. The Aussies received their "ASX200 7K" hats last night. What a joke it all is. The beat goes on.

1/19/20; 7:00 PM EST =
1/17/20; 10:00 AM EST =

1/17/20; 9:00 AM EST =

1/14/20; 3:59 PM EST = +88; signal line is +75

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market drama continues. UTIL was below 880.50 for most of the day so the bears had their chests puffed out but then the utilities popped above 880.50 in the final five minutes of trading punching the bears in the face. UTIL is at 882 after receiving that couple-point goose. The bulls are back in charge with the algo number 13 points above the signal line.

The US-China Phase One trade deal signing occurs tomorrow. The bulls are ready to rock and roll higher creating more new all-time record highs. The bears must either push UTIL below 880.50, GTX below 2514 and/or VIX above 13.70. If any one of these three turn bearish and the SPX drops below 3277 and trends lower, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. Stocks will become uber bearish if 2 of the 3 fail into the bear camp and stocks will be falling like rocks if all 3 turn bearish. If all 3 remains bullish, the bulls will print new record highs in the stock indexes while slapping the bears in the face for fun.

UTIL 880.50 is key and the bulls log a major victory today. Bears better push those utes south quick or they will be in for continued pain early this year into the springtime. In fact, the UTIL 866.66 level is the key bull-bear line in the sand for all of next week. So the bears not only have to send UTIL sub 880.50 this week but also push it below 867 by Friday at 4 PM EST. The drama continues. The price action remains erratic and unstable. Bears need weaker utes and commodities and higher volatility.

1/17/20; 10:00 AM EST =
1/17/20; 9:00 AM EST =

1/14/20; 3:59 PM EST = +88; signal line is +75

1/14/20; 10:08 AM EST = +72; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long

1/14/20; 9:41 AM EST = +88; signal line is +75
1/13/20; 3:51 PM EST = +72; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but continues champing at the bit to go short. Thwack. Whack. Boof. The bulls and bears keep battling. Utilities tell you the market story right now. UTIL came up to exactly test the 880.50 at 10:45 AM EST and was spanked down. The algorithm told you that level ahead of time. The drama did not stop there. UTIL came up for a second try, and succeeded, only to fall on its sword and drop below 880.50 again, then another shot of morphine and UTIL popped-up again, above, 880.50, but then fell back down onto the gurney. UTIL slipping below 880.50 to end the day at 879.69 in the bear camp is a huge bear win despite the big rally in stocks.

However, the drama will likely continue this week. The UTIL 880.50 bull-bear line in the sand remains in play for all of this week. If UTIL remains below 880.50 and begins trending lower and lower, the stock market will become extremely sick and for a very long time. If UTIL pops back above 880.50 and can stay above there all of this week, there is nothing but blue skies and rainbows ahead with more new record highs in equities.

The Keybot the quant algorithm wants to go short but the internal parameters are not yet fully latched to permit the move, so the model remains in bull mode. This has been going on for several days; sometimes it is like herding kittens for the quant. If the S&P 500 drops below 3268, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The SPX begins the Tuesday trading session at 3288 so bears will need 20 negative points. S&P futures are down -6 about 3 hours before the opening bell.

It is that simple. The direction of the stock market is determined by UTIL above 880.50 for the bulls to win going forward, or, SPX below 3268 for the bears to win. Another day of festivities is set to begin.

1/19/20; 7:00 PM EST =
1/17/20; 10:00 AM EST =
1/17/20; 9:00 AM EST =
1/13/20; 3:51 PM EST = +72; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long

1/13/20; 2:32 PM EST = +88; signal line is +75

1/13/20; 1:02 PM EST = +72; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains long

1/13/20; 12:37 PM EST = +88; signal line is +76

1/12/20; 7:00 PM EST = +72; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading is set to begin. Last week and right now is odd in that the model has wanted to go short for five days but the internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move. The quant has never exhibited this behavior before which makes it fascinating to watch. If the SPX slips below 3261 and trends lower, beginning the week at 3265, only 4 points lower, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. At 6 PM EST, watch to see if the S&P futures are down -4 or more overnight, or not.

The bulls must push utilities higher to keep printing record stock market highs. Bulls need UTIL above 880.50, now at 874, to guarantee continued stock market joy. Bears need UTIL to remain below 880.50 and trend lower which would signal doom and gloom not only in the shorter-term (days and a few weeks) but stretching out through the medium term (months) and perhaps longer (years). If UTIL pops above 880.50 this week, the stock market will likely remain happy in Q1. If UTIL fails at attaining 880.50 this week, it likely kicks off the start of long term stock market misery. Watch it closely especially Monday morning.

Bears will benefit from higher volatility and/or weaker retail stocks, copper and commodities. Bears need VIX above 14.04, RTH below 119.42, CPER below 17.20 and/or GTX below 2511, respectively. If any of these four parameters turn bearish, the path ahead is selling in the stock market. If the four remain in the bull camp, the stock market will chop sideways and then will only go up if the bulls can push the utes higher.

The stage is set. Something will probably hit the fan this week but you never know. Keybot only sees 1's and 0's. The quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week both on Friday morning; one before the opening bell and one after. The beat goes on.

1/19/20; 7:00 PM EST =
1/17/20; 10:00 AM EST =

1/17/20; 9:00 AM EST =

1/12/20; 7:00 PM EST = +72; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long

1/10/20; 12:00 PM EST = +72; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but continues to champ at the bit to go short. The internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. The algo prints two numbers during the session and the bulls take back control, only to fall on their sword again by the end of the session. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3282.99 on 1/10/20.

Utilities are key. UTIL came up to poke at the 876.46 that Keybot called out ahead of time. Price finally poked up through giving the bulls something to cheer about but alas, UTIL finishes the week at 874.10. UTIL must be above 880.50 all of next week or the stock market is going to have a very rocky road ahead for a sustainable period. If UTIL shoots above 880 on Monday morning, the bulls will be happy for a while longer.

The SPX comes down to look at the 3264 level that Keybot identified going into the session. Interestingly, the quant was likely within one minute of flipping short at the end of the Friday session. The bulls, however, propped price up and the algo remains long. Keybot wants to flip short with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. If the SPX falls below 3261 on Monday, and trends lower, Keybot will likely flip short. The SPX will begin next week at 3265.

A comment on the unemployment rate that came in dead-flat at 3.5%. Keybot tracks many parameters and a warning is flashing that if the unemployment rate moves to 3.7% or higher going forward (next jobs reports are 2/7/20 and 3/6/20), the economy and stock market will begin falling down the rabbit hole of despair. This year is a leap year so some babies born on 2/29/20 will only have a birthday party once every four years.

1/12/20; 7:00 PM EST =

1/10/20; 12:00 PM EST = +72; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long

1/10/20; 11:15 AM EST = +88; signal line is +77

1/10/20; 9:00 AM EST = +72; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
1/8/20; 7:50 AM EST = +72; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the epic stock market party continues. Traders are drinking Fed wine and buying stocks with reckless abandon. Life is a party. However, Keybot continues champing at the bit to go short all week long! The algo number is 5 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move to occur. This is unprecedented action; the quant has never exhibited this behavior before in its long history.

The algo did not print any numbers in the Thursday session. It was another bull party with the SPX printing a new all-time high at 3275.58 and a new all-time closing high at 3274.70. The 3276 is the highest number ever printed in stock market history.

If the SPX drops below 3264, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. The SPX begins the Friday regular session at the record closing high at 3275. S&P future are up +9 so the bulls have their chests puffed-out again to end the week. However, the US Monthly Jobs Report hits before the opening bell and can move markets one way or the other.

Bulls need higher utilities; it will verify the upside rally in equities. If utes do not rally, the move higher in stocks is likely in jeopardy. Bulls need to push UTIL above 876.46 (now at 873) today to create strong stock market joy. By 4 PM EST today, UTIL must be up above 880.50, otherwise, stocks are in serious trouble for next week. If the bulls create joy in the utilities it tells you that the market upside likely has more legs. If utes stall here, sputter, and roll over, that tells you very serious trouble may be on the way for the days and weeks ahead for US equities.

Bears will receive downside strength with VIX above 14.05, RTH below 119.38, CPER below 17.20 and/or GTX below  2511, higher volatility, weaker retail stocks, copper and commodities, respectively. The degree that any of these four parameters turn bearish corresponds to how far the stock market would drop. Commodities are in a big retreat this week. Bulls only need higher utilities to claim the victory prize.

1/12/20; 7:00 PM EST =

1/10/20; 9:00 AM EST =

1/8/20; 7:50 AM EST = +72; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the epic stock market drama continues. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 3267.07. Oddly, the quant keeps printing numbers that want to flip the model short. The internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. The Thursday session will be important.

The bears need SPX below 3237 to likely flip Keybot short. The stock market begins the Thursday session at SPX 3253 so bears need 16 negative points. Bears will create market mayhem if they push VIX above 14.07, CPER below 17.20 and/or RTH below 119.30.

The bulls need strong utilities and must push UTIL above 876.46 as soon as possible. Not only that, but the bulls must push UTIL above, and keep it above, 880.50, for all of next week. If UTIL cannot reach these bull targets, it is a very ominous signal for the US stock market going forward.

Bears need the SPX below 3237, higher volatility and lower copper. Bulls need stronger utilities. Who will flinch?

1/12/20; 7:00 PM EST =

1/10/20; 9:00 AM EST =

1/8/20; 7:50 AM EST = +72; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long

1/8/20; 7:15 AM EST = +58; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long

1/8/20; 6:43 AM EST = +72; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long

1/8/20; 3:06 AM EST = +58; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long

1/7/20; 10:12 AM EST = +72; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains long