The bears are in charge of the stock market but the bulls pushed back late-day Friday. The algo number is 10 points below the signal line. Interestingly, the SPX fell from 3333 to 3281 intraday Friday; a big 52 point retreat. The bulls and bears continue to battle, however, and perhaps after this week a clearer winner will surface.
Very simply, bulls need lower volatility and they will ride the glory train to new stock market highs. Bears need weaker retail and bank stocks and they will begin slashing off chunks of bull flesh. Bulls need VIX below 13.58 (now at 14.56) and they will throw confetti and claim victory going forward.
Bears need RTH below 119.93 (now at 120.10) and/or XLF below 30.31 (now at 30.39) and they will celebrate stock market carnage. Either one of the two will immediately sicken the stock market and if both turn bearish, the stock market will take out Friday's lows and begin falling in earnest.
If VIX remains in the bear camp, and RTH and XLF in the bull camp, status quo, stocks will chop sideways with a slight downward bias. One of these three characters is going to flinch and that will immediately tell you the path forward for the stock market. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST so that will provide a heads-up for the trading day ahead in the States.
Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. The table is set. The battle lines are drawn. The bulls need rich Uncle Fed and the other central bankers to press their jackboots against the throat of volatility to create stock market joy. The bears need to hear bad news on the retailers and banks overnight.
The caution flag is out. If the VIX goes sub 13.58, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and then if the SPX moves above 3333, which would be a huge 38 point up day for the S&P 500 on Monday, Keybot will likely flip back to the long side.
The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. All they have to do is pound the retailers and banks. If they do, they win, if not, they got buptkis and will fold like a cheap suit. This week may write epic stock market history. Markets remain erratic and unstable.
The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. All they have to do is pound the retailers and banks. If they do, they win, if not, they got buptkis and will fold like a cheap suit. This week may write epic stock market history. Markets remain erratic and unstable.
2/2/20;
7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/31/20;
10:00 AM EST =
1/28/20;
10:00 AM EST =
1/26/20;
7:00 PM EST = +56; signal line is +66
1/24/20; 3:54 PM EST = +56; signal line is +68
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.