Saturday, January 11, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but continues to champ at the bit to go short. The internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. The algo prints two numbers during the session and the bulls take back control, only to fall on their sword again by the end of the session. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3282.99 on 1/10/20.

Utilities are key. UTIL came up to poke at the 876.46 that Keybot called out ahead of time. Price finally poked up through giving the bulls something to cheer about but alas, UTIL finishes the week at 874.10. UTIL must be above 880.50 all of next week or the stock market is going to have a very rocky road ahead for a sustainable period. If UTIL shoots above 880 on Monday morning, the bulls will be happy for a while longer.

The SPX comes down to look at the 3264 level that Keybot identified going into the session. Interestingly, the quant was likely within one minute of flipping short at the end of the Friday session. The bulls, however, propped price up and the algo remains long. Keybot wants to flip short with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. If the SPX falls below 3261 on Monday, and trends lower, Keybot will likely flip short. The SPX will begin next week at 3265.

A comment on the unemployment rate that came in dead-flat at 3.5%. Keybot tracks many parameters and a warning is flashing that if the unemployment rate moves to 3.7% or higher going forward (next jobs reports are 2/7/20 and 3/6/20), the economy and stock market will begin falling down the rabbit hole of despair. This year is a leap year so some babies born on 2/29/20 will only have a birthday party once every four years.

1/12/20; 7:00 PM EST =
1/10/20; 12:00 PM EST = +72; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
1/10/20; 11:15 AM EST = +88; signal line is +77
1/10/20; 9:00 AM EST = +72; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
1/8/20; 7:50 AM EST = +72; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long

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