Tuesday, April 29, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the Wednesday session. JJC is 37.48 two pennies on the bear side of the critical 37.50 level, identified by the algo, as the key bull-bear line in the sand. Copper has a major impact on market direction currently. So does financials. XLF is 21.93 on the bull side of the 21.80 bull-bear line in the sand which helped the bulls maintain buoyant equities on Tuesday. Bulls need JJC above 37.50 and it is smooth sailing higher for equities. Watch the copper trading overnight. Bears need to push XLF under 21.80 and market selling will return in force. If XLF drops under 21.80, and the SPX drops under 1871, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX starting at 1878, the bulls need to touch the 1881 handle and an upside acceleration will occur. If copper is higher the bulls will catapult strongly higher. The bears need to drop under 1871 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1872-1880 is sideways action for Wednesday. The FOMC Rate Decision is Wednesday afternoon which will pivot markets. The bulls are driving the bus but if the bears create weakness in banks things can turn sour very quickly.

5/2/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/29/14; 11:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +40

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Tuesday session moves along. JJC loses 37.50 which should place a lid on the market upside but the SPX keeps poking up through the 1878 resistance. XLF is 21.91 above the important 21.80 bull-bear level and creating market positivity. SPX is 1879. If bears can maintain JJC under 37.50, the upside move should stall. If JJC moves above 37.50, equities will gallop higher. Bears need XLF under 21.80 or they got nothing.

5/4/14; 7:00 PM EST =
5/2/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/29/14; 11:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +40
4/29/14; 10:00 AM EST = +65; signal line is +39

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side fueled by stronger financials. The whipsaw is not too surprising considering the wild market action yesterday. It is very rare for multiple sectors to collapse like financials, semiconductors and volatility yesterday and then to reverse in such quick order. The price action is very atypical. Keybot is back on the long side and the bulls should be okay as long as XLF stays above 21.80, SOX above 567.10 and JJC above 37.50. Copper is weak today so bears are trying to push JJC lower to stop the market upside.

Keybot takes less than a one percent loss on the last trade both with the algorithm program and the actual trading. The algo cycles out of DOG and into SPY remaining in the single ETF's due to the whipsaw nature of markets currently. Bulls and bears are fighting it out in a saw-tooth sideways pattern. The whipsaw action is chewing up Keybot's earlier gains this year.

Bears will likely need both XLF under 21.80 and JJC under 37.50 to flip the algo back to the short side. Watch JJC 37.50 to see if the bears can create a ceiling on the market upside, or not. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw especially in these current treacherous markets. The caution flag is out and if either XLF or JJC or SOX turns bearish the imminent turn notation would be in play. XLF is 21.86 six pennies on the bull side creating market lift. JJC is 31.56 hanging on to the bull flag by six pennies as well. Markets are unstable and erratic. 

5/4/14; 7:00 PM EST =
5/2/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/29/14; 10:00 AM EST = +65; signal line is +39
4/29/14; 9:31 AM EST = +65; signal line is +36; go long 1874; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +1.4%)(Keybot this trade = -0.8%; Keybot for 2014 = +2.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +0.4%)
4/28/14; 3:15 PM EST = +49; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
4/28/14; 2:27 PM EST = +33; signal line is +34
4/28/14; 1:05 PM EST = +19; signal line is +33; go short 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = +0.0%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.4%)(Actual this trade = +0.1%; Actual for 2014 = +1.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday afternoon in a very jumpy tape. The move is a candidate for a whipsaw today since the S&P futures are strongly higher this morning at +4. Financials weaken and volatility jumps higher to create market weakness. The surprise is the weakness in semiconductors. But as the session ends yesterday, semiconductors recover and volatility drops to fuel the late-day rally.

Keybot flips short at the same entry on the long side a couple weeks ago at SPX 1859 so the algo program is flat over the last trade. The actual trade is flat. Keybot cycles out of SPY into DOG continuing with single ETF's due to the whipsaw sideways nature of markets currently.

For Tuesday, the bulls receive the upside go signal with XLF 21.80 and/or RTH 58.90. If markets recover as the futures indicate, but neither of these parameters turn bullish, markets will reverse and sell off. If one or both of these parameters turn bullish after the opening bell, Keybot will likely immediately flip back to the long side. The bears need to push SOX under 567.10, JJC under 37.50 and/or VIX above 14.65 to gain downside selling pressure. If all five parameters remain staturs quo, then markets stagger sideways.

For the SPX starting at 1869, the bulls need to push above 1877 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1851 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1852-1876 is sideways action. The bears are steering the bus but the bulls have their hands on the wheel as well so for now the imminent turn notation appears until the markets sort things out this morning. Bulls need XLF 21.80. Bears need SOX 567.10. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM this morning.

4/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/28/14; 3:15 PM EST = +49; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
4/28/14; 2:27 PM EST = +33; signal line is +34
4/28/14; 1:05 PM EST = +19; signal line is +33; go short 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = +0.0%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.4%)(Actual this trade = +0.1%; Actual for 2014 = +1.0%)
4/28/14; 12:13 PM EST = +33; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
4/28/14; 11:14 AM EST = +49; signal line is +33
4/28/14; 10:19 AM EST = +65; signal line is +32
4/28/14; 9:45 AM EST = +49; signal line is +32
4/27/14; 7:00 PM EST = +65; signal line is +32
4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST = +65; signal line is +30
4/25/14; 9:30 AM EST = +63; signal line is +29
4/24/14; 10:47 AM EST = +79; signal line is +28
4/24/14; 9:36 AM EST = +63; signal line is +25
4/22/14; 2:58 PM EST = +47; signal line is +24
4/22/14; 11:38 AM EST = +63; signal line is +24
4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +23
4/16/14; 2:54 PM EST = +47; signal line is +22; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.4%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +0.9%)

Monday, April 28, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long to begin the new week of trading. The bears could not create any significant market damage since financials and copper remain higher and volatility lower. The S&P futures are +7 pointing to a strong open about three hours away. Bears need either XLF under 21.77, JJC under 37.47 and/or VIX above 14.75, or they got nothing. Any degree of market selling will be in proportion to these three parameters turning bearish, if they do. The bulls need to push retail stocks higher and the RTH above 58.95 which will create the fuel needed to propel equities higher.

For the SPX starting at 1863, the bulls need to touch the 1878 handle to create an upside acceleration. Even with the robust opening move projected for the S&P's, the bulls still need 15 points overall to show they got game, a formidable task. The bears need to push under 1860, only three points lower, to create a downside acceleration. Bulls are pumping futures higher to prevent the bears from gaining any downside traction. A move through 1861-1877 is sideways action for Monday. The bulls are driving the bus without worry. If 2 of the 3 parameters above (XLF, RTH, VIX) turn bearish, the imminent turn status will be in play and the bulls will be worried. Keybot prints four pre-scheduled numbers this week. April ends on Wednesday and the month began at SPX 1872.34 so there may be drama in the front-half of the week around this number which dictates whether April will be a positive, or negative, month.

5/4/14; 7:00 PM EST =
5/2/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/27/14; 7:00 PM EST = +65; signal line is +32
4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST = +65; signal line is +30

Saturday, April 26, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. The algo did not print any additional numbers yesterday after the pre-scheduled number. The bears could not gain downside traction without pushing financials lower, copper lower and/or volatility higher. Thus, despite the down tape, the bulls did not suffer much of a blow. Important areas and levels to watch for next week can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

4/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST = +65; signal line is +30

Friday, April 25, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bears come to play and send RTH under the 58.97 level creating market bearishness. The bears cannot gain any strong traction lower, however, since the VIX remains below 14.75, the XLF is above 21.78 and the JJC is above 37.46. All three parameters allow markets to remain buoyant despite today's sell off. The algo number remains 35 points above the signal line so bulls remain steady overall. If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bearish the markets will quickly descend into serious trouble. For now, the bulls are holding the fort. If 1 of the 3 parameters turn bearish the caution flag will be out and an imminent turn status will appear if 2 of the 3 parameters turn bearish. Volatility, financials and copper are dictating market direction currently.

4/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST = +65; signal line is +30
4/25/14; 9:30 AM EST = +63; signal line is +29
4/24/14; 10:47 AM EST = +79; signal line is +28

Thursday, April 24, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Friday session. The bulls are riding a wave of upside glory and in full control of markets. Bears got nothing unless they either push RTH under 58.96 and/or JJC under 37.46. The bulls push the retail sector and copper higher and it is very surprising the broad indexes did not move strongly higher. If RTH and JJC remain bullish, markets will run strongly higher into the weekend.

The algo has not printed at the lofty 79 number since a few 78 prints in October that led to a 50-handle pull-back in the SPX. Another 79 print occurred mid-September identifying the market top that resulted in a 90-handle pull back in the SPX. Thus, enjoy the bull ride but Keybot is signaling overbot conditions which will likely correct over the coming week or three. The algo only sees 1's and 0's, however, so time will tell to see how it works out.

For the SPX starting at 1879, the bulls need to poke up through 1884 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1870 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1871-1883 is sideways action. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number Friday morning. The bulls are cruising without a care in the world. The algo number is 51 points above the signal line.

4/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/24/14; 10:47 AM EST = +79; signal line is +28

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls explode higher at the opening bell with an orgy of excitement. The broad indexes are either side of the flat line currently giving up the initial leap higher, however, the bulls now have copper and retail in their camp so it is surprising that the indexes are not far higher. Watch RTH 58.96 and JJC 37.46. Prices are above for each creating the elevated and buoyant stock market today. Bears will get run over unless they can reverse the retail and copper joy, respectively, so pay close attention to these two parameters. RTH is 59.04 and JJC is 37.67 so there should be far more bullishness occurring in markets than the action shows.

The algo explodes higher to +79. This number will have to be compared to prior lofty levels. Remember, at its heart, Keybot is an oscillator so the high near-80 print is an indication of highly overbot markets. For now, the bulls continue to cruise and will drive markets strongly higher unless the bears can reverse the copper and/or retail joy as described above.

4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/24/14; 10:47 AM EST = +79; signal line is +28
4/24/14; 9:36 AM EST = +63; signal line is +25
4/22/14; 2:58 PM EST = +47; signal line is +24

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and idled today without printing any numbers. Bulls remain in control and the AAPL and FB earnings blowouts this evening may keep the upside party going. RTH 58.97 remains the key. Bulls must move through RTH 58.97 to chart the path to SPX 1900. Bears need XLF 21.78 and/or VIX 14.70 to create negativity.

For the SPX starting at 1875, the bulls need to touch the 1880 handle and an upside acceleration will occur. The bears need to push under 1874 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1875-1879 is sideways action. The bulls are cruising along and set up for an up day for Thursday. Watch RTH 58.97.

4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/22/14; 2:58 PM EST = +47; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls throw another party yesterday boosting the retail sector which will launch a move to SPX 1900, however, the bulls faded into the closing bell. Watch RTH 58.97 since it is the key element dictating market direction currently. RTH begins at 58.86 causing market bearisness. Bulls will be popping champagne corks if RTH moves above 58.97. XLF 21.78 is another bull-bear line in the sand. XLF begins at 21.99 causing market bullishness. VIX 14.70 is important with the bulls winning this fight. Copper is important with the bears winning this fight keeping JJC under 37.45.

For the SPX starting at 1880, the bulls need to touch the 1885 handle and an upside acceleration will occur. The bears need to push under 1873 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1874-1884 is sideways action for Wednesday. S&P futures are -2 at this writing about three hours before the opening bell. The bulls are cruising and will be in clover if RTH moves above 58.97. The bears need XLF under 21.78, and VIX above 14.70, and the SPX under 1873, to create a scenario for a potential flip to the short side.

4/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/22/14; 2:58 PM EST = +47; signal line is +24
4/22/14; 11:38 AM EST = +63; signal line is +24
4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +23

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls continue an upside rally without resistance. The algo did not print any numbers in the Monday session. The bears held the line at SPX 1870-1871 all day long but in the final minutes the bulls thrust higher to 1872. Note how financials, XLF, actually finished negative. This allows bears to keep a lid on the upside. Bears need either XLF 21.77 and/or VIX 14.70 to place a ceiling on the upside and roll equities over to the downside. If both turn bearish and the SPX drops under 1863, Keybot will likely flip short but at this juncture this scenario does not appear to be in play. The caution flag will be needed if the bears push XLF under 21.77. Bulls will receive more upside juice with either RTH 58.95 and/or JJC 37.45 so the bull focus is to push the retail sector and copper higher, respectively. Bulls must have these two sectors in pocket to move to the all-time highs and then above SPX 1900.

For the SPX starting at 1872, closing at the high, the bulls only need a tiny smidge of positivity and this will set up an acceleration move higher. A move above the strong 1874 resistance is a big deal and shows the bulls in firm control heading to the all-time highs. The bears need to hold the 1872-1874 resistance level with all their might and at the same time push under 1863 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1864-1871 is sideways action. S&P futures are flat about four hours before the US opening bell.

4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +23

Monday, April 21, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long to start the new week of trading after the Easter holiday weekend. The algo is tracking financials, volatility and copper as the three key market movers. Bears need either XLF 21.77 and/or VIX 14.74 to place a lid on the market upside. The bulls need higher copper to receive more upside go juice so watch JJC 37.50 as the signal for higher equities. Copper is flat in early trading. If financials and volatility turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 1857, Keybot will likely flip short but this appears a tall task as the morning arrives on the East Coast.

For the SPX starting at 1865, the bulls need to touch the 1870 handle and an upside acceleration will occur. Bears need to push under 1857 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1858-1869 is sideways action. S&P futures are +2 at this writing about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell. The bulls are cruising and bears got nothing unless they achieve lower financials and higher volatility. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. 

4/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +23
4/16/14; 2:54 PM EST = +47; signal line is +22; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.4%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +0.9%)

Friday, April 18, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the Easter holiday weekend. US markets will reopen for trading on Monday. Financials, XLF, remain buoyant in the Thursday session providing an easy day for bulls. Semi's catapult higher creating bull juice. Volatility drops popping equities higher. In addition, the bulls are boosting copper so they can receive more upside market juice next week. Bears will focus on pounding financials lower to stop the market upside. Bulls will focus on sending copper higher. Keybot did not print any numbers on Thursday. The bulls are cruising with the algo number 25 points above the signal line.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 2:54 PM EST = +47; signal line is +22; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.4%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +0.9%)

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today. Once the financials, XLF 21.77, joined the bull camp, the algo latched across all parameters and flips long at SPX 1859. The markets are whipsawing sideways. Note that the prior move was 1859 to 1848, now 1848 back to 1859. These moves will wreak havoc on a timing model but Keybot is smart enough to drop down into single ETF's to ride the turbulence out minimizing the damage. Keybot cycled out of SH and into SPY. The algorithm program lost -0.6% on the last trade and also the actual trading. After 3-1/2 months roll by this year, the broad market is flat on the year.

SOX moves above 563.10. VIX drops under 14.77. Then XLF moves above 21.77 creating the late-day orgy into the closing bell. A triumphant of bullishness. Bears got nothing unless they regain one of these critical bull-bear levels. XLF is 21.82 only a nickel away so pay attention to that one after the opening bell. Tomorrow is the last day of trading this week due to the Good Friday holiday. Bulls will receive additional fuel by goosing copper and/or the retail sector.

For the SPX, the power thrust late-day is strong since price closed at the exact high at 1862.31. Therefore, the bulls only need to see a tiny smidgen of green overnight and it will be off to the races with an acceleration higher into the weekend. The bears will try to prevent any positive number in the overnight futures with all their might. In addition, bears must weaken financials and semiconductors and raise volatility. Bears will also try to push the SPX under 1846 to regain their mojo, a formidable task since the holiday weekend is nigh and traders are in a happy mood content with lining the markets out sideways so the barbecue can be fired up.

A move through SPX 1847-1861 is sideways action. The bulls are cruising. If two of the three parameters in the middle paragraph turn bearish, consider the imminent turn notation to be in play. The caution flag remains out since the bears may stage a comeback tomorrow. The whipsaw sideways market behavior may continue.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 2:54 PM EST = +47; signal line is +22; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.4%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +0.9%)
4/16/14; 11:54 AM EST = +31; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
4/16/14; 11:36 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:54 AM EST = +1; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 10:59 AM EST = +1; signal line is +25
4/14/14; 3:48 PM EST = +17; signal line is +26
4/14/14; 3:06 PM EST = +1; signal line is +28
4/14/14; 9:58 AM EST = +17; signal line is +30
4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +33
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +35
4/10/14; 12:54 PM EST = +17; signal line is +37; go short 1848; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +4.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.6%; Actual for 2014 = +1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Another wild and crazy market day occurs. The algo is tracking SOX 563.10, VIX 14.77 and XLF 21.77 as bull-bear lines in the sand. Semi's and volatility turn bullish today creating the market upside. Finanicals are attacking the XLF 21.77 but stalling so far. Keybot wants to go long right now but the internal programming rules are holding it back. One of the key elements that will help latch the algo into flipping long is the SPX HOD print at 1858.45. If the bulls can send the SPX above 1858.45 and hold it above for several minutes, Keybot will likely flip long. Bears need to move SOX under 563.10 and/or VIX above 14.77 immediately to prevent the algo from flipping long. High drama. Keybot is a hair away from going long.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 11:54 AM EST = +31; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
4/16/14; 11:36 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:54 AM EST = +1; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the Wednesday session of trading. Semi's and financials rule the roost. Bears need SOX under 563.10 to regain their mojo. Bulls need XLF above 21.77 to lock in the market upside and substantiate the upside market rally. If the XLF moves above 21.77, and the SPX prints above 1844, and both stay above, Keybot will likely flip long. Thus, pay close attention to bank earnings moving forward since they will impact markets in a major way.

For the SPX starting at 1843, the bulls need to push up through 1844, only one single point, to accelerate higher so watch the overnight S&P futures to see if the bulls receive the positive nod. The bears need to drop under 1816 to regain their mojo; a formidable task that is 27 points lower. Instead, the bears will simply try to create weakness in financials and semiconductors to halt the market upside. A move through SPX 1817-1843 is sideways action for Wednesday. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in the morning before the opening bell. The bears are in control but the bulls are making a strong move higher.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23

March 2014 Market Chronology Available on Amazon Kindle

Keystone the Scribe, one of Keybot's sister blog sites, releases the latest issue of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics March 2014-03 available on Amazon's Kindle. A handy link is provided in the left margin. All the recent eBook links are provided in the margins.

If you are a seasoned professional trader or a novice wanting to learn how and why markets move in real-time, the daily chronology series are the books for you. The eBooks detail market reactions to the Monthly Jobs Reports, Fed meetings, economic data, earnings releases and geopolitical events. Business and economic teachers and students enjoy the chronologies since textbook theory comes to life. Read about how the IPO frenzy is affecting markets. Study the impact of the recent copper collapse on markets. Become educated on how Ukraine turmoil affects global markets and currencies.


As always, special thanks to the international support for the K E Stone Blog Series of Web Sites especially the strong following from major money centers in New York, Chicago, London, Frankfurt, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Sydney and the loyal following from the US, Canada, Mexico, Australia, UK, Germany, France, Russia, China (yes, Russia and China) and Malaysia. The blog sites only continue with the ongoing support of all followers large and small, professional and novice. Keystone the Scribe is the respected world leader in providing historical context for global markets and world economics. Read the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics March 2014-03 issue today to gain a vital market edge. Thank you for the support.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market craziness continues. Markets are up, down, up, down, if you blink or look away the indexes are in the opposite direction. The bulls push semiconductors higher so the broad indexes recover. Watch financials, XLF 21.77, now at 21.62 only 15 cents away. If the XLF pushes above 21.77, and the SPX above 1844, Keybot will likely flip long, hence, the imminent turn status is back in play again.

4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 10:59 AM EST = +1; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the markets perform a pop and drop maneuver today. SOX drops under 563.10 ushering in the market selling. Bulls got nothing unless they push semiconductors higher. XLF (financials) are negative on the day and JJC (copper) is collapsing -2%. The bears are cruising.

4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/15/14; 10:59 AM EST = +1; signal line is +25
4/14/14; 3:48 PM EST = +17; signal line is +26

Monday, April 14, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short after the first day of trading this week. Bulls push markets higher with semiconductors. For Tuesday, bulls need either XLF 21.78 (financials) and/or JJC 37.53 (copper) to rocket stocks higher and confirm a sustainable upside rally going forward. If either one turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 1834, Keybot will likely flip long. The bears need to push SOX under 563.10 (semiconductors) to stop the market upside in its tracks and introduce market selling.

For the SPX starting at 1831, the bulls need to push up through 1834 to accelerate higher so watch to see if the overnight futures can maintain +3 and higher to give the bulls the nod. The bears need to push under 1816 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1817-1833 is sideways action for Tuesday. Markets remain erratic and unstable clearly evident by today's wild whipsaw trading. Bears got nothing unless they push the SOX under 563.10. Since the bulls can likely flip Keybot to the long side with bullish financials and/or copper as described above, the imminent turn warning is in the title line.

4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/14/14; 3:48 PM EST = +17; signal line is +26
4/14/14; 3:06 PM EST = +1; signal line is +28
4/14/14; 9:58 AM EST = +17; signal line is +30
4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is bearish to begin the four-day holiday-shortened week of trading. Markets are closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday. Easter is Sunday. The bears are cruising. The failure in semiconductors create bear fuel. The algo is tracking semi's and copper, SOX 563.50 and JJC 37.60, respectively. Both are creating bearishness and should serve as the first sign that bulls are staging a come back rally. If both remain bearish, the market negativity will continue and markets will drift lower.

For the SPX starting at 1816, the bulls need to recover Friday's big drop of 17 points to regain their mojo, a formidable task. Instead, bulls will try to push semi's and copper higher to stop the market bleeding. Bears need to push under 1814 to accelerate the downside, only a point or two lower. A move through 1815-1834 is sideways action for Monday. S&P futures were -5 last evening then recovered to +1 overnight and over the last hour have dropped back down to -5 (5:30 AM EST) which would make for happy bears. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +33
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +35

Friday, April 11, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. SOX 563.69 failed. The SOX (semiconductors) is now collapsing at 560.94. This creates the increased market selling pressure. The bears are in full control. Bulls got nothing unless they can send SOX back above 563.69.

4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +33
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish as a choppy sideways session occurs for Friday that is staying mainly negative. Financials tumble lower on the disappointing JPM earnings that missed on the top and bottom lines. The algo is watching SOX 563.69 as a bull-bear line in the sand. It ruptured today but the bulls quickly recovered. If SOX loses 563.69 the markets will take another strong leg lower with the SPX charting a path to the low 1800's. The bulls are trying to regain their mojo by pumping copper. The algo is tracking JJC 37.61 as the bull-bear line in the sand. Markets will recover and rally if JJC moves above 37.61. With SOX on the bull side, and JJC on the bear side, the status is quo and markets stumble sideways.

The SPX lost the 1831 level this morning so the acceleration to 1828 support occurred, and failed. Equities deteriorate midday. The SPX is 1821. The SOX drops to 563.85 only pennies from failure but bounces again. Watch SOX 563.69 into the closing bell. Markets will crumble if SOX loses 563.69. 

4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +35
4/10/14; 12:54 PM EST = +17; signal line is +37; go short 1848; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +4.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.6%; Actual for 2014 = +1.5%)

Note Added 2:13 PM: SOX fails 563.69; see if the bears can hold it under, if so, markets are going to sell off strongly. Bulls must move semicondutors higher immediately or they will lose control. Hang on tight.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side yesterday at SPX 1848. This is the first whipsaw for the algo in quite some time. Equities were hammered yesterday. The markets slapped the bears silly the day before and then just when the bulls ran in for the next rally higher they were mowed down in a killing field. Bulls and bears are both beaten. Retail and financial sectors drop and volatility pops creating downside fuel.

The algorithm program loses only about one-half percent on the last trade but the actual trading loses -2.6%. This is due to the collapse in the tech sector that is now cascading around the globe. Keybot cycled out of QLD and into SH. Since the algo whipsawed it automatically drops into the single ETF mode here forward for the next 35 days. This reduces risk since the markets are very erratic, unpredictable and unstable.

The bears can receive further downside fuel with weaker semiconductors. Watch SOX 563.95. SOX is at 569.15 about five points above creating market bullishness. The bulls can stop the bleeding if XLF moves above 21.86 now at 21.54 causing bearishness. Interestingly, JPM and WFC earnings results are out in a couple hours and will greatly impact the XLF.

For the SPX today starting at 1833, the bulls are simply trying to stop the collapse and will succeed if XLF moves above 21.86. The bears need to push under 1831, only two points lower, to accelerate the downside to test the 1828 support in a heartbeat. S&P futures are dead flat as this is written about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell but were up +4 one hour ago. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning at 10 AM.

4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/10/14; 12:54 PM EST = +17; signal line is +37; go short 1848; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +4.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.6%; Actual for 2014 = +1.5%)
4/10/14; 12:02 PM EST = +17; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
4/10/14; 11:49 AM EST = +31; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
4/10/14; 11:32 AM EST = +17; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
4/10/14; 11:12 AM EST = +31; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
4/9/14; 12:22 PM EST = +47; signal line is +41; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = +0.9%; Keybot for 2014 = +4.6%)(Actual this trade = +0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +4.1%)

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is now back on the bull side of the boat after today's FOMC-induced orgy. XLF is above 21.88 and VIX is under 14.58 creating bullishness. The algo has shifted its interest and is now tracking the retail sector as the key metric concerning market direction. Watch RTH 59.49. Price is now at 59.40 only nine pennies away and causing bearishness. The bulls receive upside fuel and continue sending equities higher if RTH moves above 59.49. If the RTH remains under 59.49 and moves lower the upside move in equities will stall.

For the SPX starting at 1872, the bulls only need less than one point, to push higher towards 1873 and the upside party will accelerate, so watch the overnight futures to see if the bulls will succeed, or not. The bears need to retrace today's move and push under 1852, a formidable task, so instead bears will focus on holding the line at RTH 59.49 since that will cap the market upside. A move through SPX 1853-1872 is sideways action.

4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/9/14; 12:22 PM EST = +47; signal line is +41; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = +0.9%; Keybot for 2014 = +4.6%)(Actual this trade = +0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +4.1%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side in these erratic and unstable markets. Financials and volatility are in the bull camp creating market lift so the SPX floats higher. The algorithm program gains +0.9% on the last trade and the actual trade gains +0.6%. Keybot cycles out of TWM and into QLD. Stay alert for a whipsaw especially with today's action.

The XLF 21.87 and VIX 14.59 (both creating market bullishness) continue to dictate market direction moving forward. The bulls grab control of the steering wheel. Watch at 2 PM to see if any wild pivot occurs which may change the picture again. For now, the caution flag remain in place. The bears likely need the SPX under 1838 to whipsaw back to the short side today so the bulls may be able to stay in control through the closing bell.

4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/9/14; 12:22 PM EST = +47; signal line is +41; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = +0.9%; Keybot for 2014 = +4.6%)(Actual this trade = +0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +4.1%)
4/9/14; 11:51 AM EST = +47; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains short
4/9/14; 11:45 AM EST = +33; signal line is +41
4/9/14; 10:49 AM EST = +17; signal line is +41
4/9/14; 10:29 AM EST = +33; signal line is +42
4/9/14; 9:52 AM EST = +17; signal line is +43
4/9/14; 9:47 AM EST = +33; signal line is +43
4/9/14; 9:37 AM EST = +47; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
4/8/14; 2:11 PM EST = +17; signal line is +44
4/8/14; 1:23 PM EST = +33; signal line is +45
4/7/14; 3:57 PM EST = +17; signal line is +45
4/7/14; 2:53 PM EST = +33; signal line is +46
4/7/14; 1:12 PM EST = +17; signal line is +47
4/7/14; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +49
4/6/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +48
4/4/14; 12:53 PM EST = +47; signal line is +48; go short 1875; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +1.4%)(Keybot this trade = -0.1%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.7%)(Actual this trade = -0.2%; Actual for 2014 = +3.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the excitement continues. XLF 21.87 and VIX 14.59 provide the market answer today. Currently both remain bearish so market negativity remains and markets cannot make any headway higher. If XLF and VIX turn bullish, and the SPX moves above the intraday high today at 1858.38, and remains above, Keybot will likely flip long. The action is very erratic so the caution flag is placed until markets can make a firm commitment one way or the other.

4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/9/14; 10:49 AM EST = +17; signal line is +41
4/9/14; 10:29 AM EST = +33; signal line is +42
4/9/14; 9:52 AM EST = +17; signal line is +43
4/9/14; 9:47 AM EST = +33; signal line is +43
4/9/14; 9:37 AM EST = +47; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
4/8/14; 2:11 PM EST = +17; signal line is +44

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving towards the Wednesday session. XLF provides drama today closing at 21.86, one penny on the bear side of the critical 21.87 level identified by the algorithm. It is amazing how Keybot can identify these levels before they occur. Financials remain key and the pivot from XLF 21.87 dictates market direction. Bulls win above XLF 21.87. Bears win below 21.87. There is also drama with volatility again and the VIX 14.59 level must be monitored. VIX is 14.89 causing negativity (volatility moves inverse to equities) so bulls need VIX under 14.59 to launch markets higher.

For the SPX starting at 1852, the bulls need to touch the 1855 handle, only a couple points higher, and the upside will accelerate. Watch the overnight S&P futures to see if the bulls can muster up +2 or more which will indicate more market upside ahead. Bears need to push under 1837.50 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1838-1854 is sideways action for Wednesday.

The pivot from XLF 21.87 dictates market direction so listen intently for any bank news overnight. If both XLF moves above 21.87, and VIX drops under 14.59, and the SPX moves above 1855, and all three of these parameters remain bullish, Keybot will likely flip long. Otherwise, the bear side remains in favor. For now, the bears continue driving the bus and will ride to victory if they beat the banks lower. If either VIX or XLF turn bullish, the caution flag will reappear; if both turn bullish the imminent turn notation would be in affect since the bulls will be running equities strongly higher.

4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/8/14; 2:11 PM EST = +17; signal line is +44
4/8/14; 1:23 PM EST = +33; signal line is +45
4/7/14; 3:57 PM EST = +17; signal line is +45

Monday, April 7, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears create market weakness into the closing bell sending XLF under 21.87. XLF 21.87 is key for Tuesday. Bears win if financials remain weak. If XLF moves above 21.87, equities will begin a recovery rally. Bulls will also receive energy and stop the downside bleeding if RTH moves above 59.40, JJC above 37.65 and/or VIX drops under 14.60. If these parameters remains bearish as they all are now, markets will remain weak and leak lower. Bears will create further selling pressure with lower commodities; watch GTX 4888 as the bull-bear line in the sand.

For the SPX for Tuesday starting at 1845, the bulls need to recover today's drop to regain their mojo, a formidable task but not impossible. The bears need only three points lower, to push under the strong 1841 support and a downside acceleration will occur quickly with price dropping to the mid and low 1830's. A move through 1842-1863 is sideways action. If any one of the four parameters above, XLF 21.87, RTH 59.40, JJC 37.65 or VIX 14.60 occurs, the caution flag will be needed. If 2 of the 4 turn bullish, Keybot may set up to flip long. If XLF remains under 21.87, the bulls got nothing and bears will keep pushing equities lower.

4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/7/14; 3:57 PM EST = +17; signal line is +45
4/7/14; 2:53 PM EST = +33; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Volatility explodes higher creating market negativity; VIX is above 14.50. XLF failed 21.87, the critical bull-bear line in the sand, so this ushered in further negativity. XLF recovers above 21.87 a short time ago providing market lift. The SPX is wrestling at the 1848-1851 support/resistance area.

If XLF remains above 21.87, the bulls will stop the downside market bleeding and float the indexes higher. If XLF fails 21.87, equities will flush strongly lower.

4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/7/14; 2:53 PM EST = +33; signal line is +46
4/7/14; 1:12 PM EST = +17; signal line is +47
4/7/14; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +49
4/6/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +48

Sunday, April 6, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant begins the new week of trading on the short side. The push and pull sideways markets continue. The algo is most focused on retail and volatility. Bulls need RTH above 59.53 and a recovery rally will be back in full swing. Bears need VIX above 14.50 for equities to take the next leg lower. Bears would also create more market negativity if XLF (financials) drops under 21.83.

For the SPX starting at 1865, the bulls need to recover all of Friday's losses to regain their mojo. Price printed a new all-time record high at 1897.28 before collapsing over 30 handles lower intraday. Instead, bulls will focus on pushing the retail sector higher, RTH above 59.53, and the market selling will stop. The bears need to push less than two points lower, under 1863, to accelerate the downside so watch the overnight futures to see if any negativity appears. A move through 1864-1896 is sideways action for Monday.

For now, the imminent turn notation is removed since bulls are going to likely need to push above SPX 1897 in Monday trading to flip the algo back to the long side; a very formidable task. However, if RTH 59.53 occurs creating bullishness consider the imminent turn to be back in affect. RTH 59.53 and VIX 14.50 provides the market direction answer for Monday trading. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/6/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +48
4/4/14; 12:53 PM EST = +47; signal line is +48; go short 1875; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +1.4%)(Keybot this trade = -0.1%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.7%)(Actual this trade = -0.2%; Actual for 2014 = +3.5%)

Saturday, April 5, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the bear side at SPX 1875. Markets remain a continuing coin-flip so stay alert for a whipsaw back to the long side. The SPX reversed 34 handles, from the new all-time high at 1897.28 down to 1863, in the Friday session. VIX remains under 14.50 so the bears are not growling that loudly despite the dramatic reversal. The weaker retail sector, with RTH dropping under 59.53, created much of the market selling. Monday will be a fight where the bulls need RTH higher while the bears need VIX higher. Levels and other areas of interest for next week can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

Keybot was flat on the last trade and cycled out of SSO into TWM. Note where the turns have occurred for the algorithm over the last month; SPX 1873, 1877 and now 1875. Pay attention to this pivot area since it likely determines the winner and loser. Bulls win above 1877. Bears win under 1873. The sideways bull-bear struggle is verified with the algo number and signal line within one point of each other. For now, the bears take control of the steering wheel as the bus careens erratically along the boulevard. The imminent turn notation remains until markets firmly commit one way or the other.

4/6/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/14; 12:53 PM EST = +47; signal line is +48; go short 1875; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +1.4%)(Keybot this trade = -0.1%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.7%)(Actual this trade = -0.2%; Actual for 2014 = +3.5%)
4/4/14; 12:47 PM EST = +47; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
4/4/14; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +50
4/2/14; 2:32 PM EST = +63; signal line is +49
4/2/14; 12:49 PM EST = +49; signal line is +48
4/2/14; 12:25 PM EST = +63; signal line is +48
4/2/14; 10:11 AM EST = +49; signal line is +47
4/1/14; 9:30 AM EST = +63; signal line is +48; go long 1877; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +1.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.0%; Actual for 2014 = +3.7%)

Thursday, April 3, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION --TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and did not print any numbers today. Equities are idling ahead of the Monthly Jobs Report at 8:30 AM EST. The same parameters and levels are in play as stated in the previous post. Bulls need higher copper. Bears need lower commodities and retail and higher volatility.

For the SPX starting at 1889, the bulls need to touch the 1894 handle and bingo, price will be above 1900 in a blink of an eye. The bears need to push under 1883 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1884-1893 is sideways action. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell tomorrow. If GTX drops under 4879, or if VIX moves above 14.47, any one of the two, and the SPX drops under 1883, Keybot will likely flip short.

4/6/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/2/14; 2:32 PM EST = +63; signal line is +49

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION --TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains bullish moving into the Thursday session. The big fight is with commodities at GTX 4879. Price is 4881 favoring bulls by two bucks creating positivity in equities. Bears need to push GTX under 4879 to place a lid on the market upside. If GTX stays above 4879, the stock market will continue floating higher. Bears would also receive downside juice from RTH 59.60 and/or VIX 14.46 but both are well away from these targets firmly in the bull camp. Bulls can receive additional upside energy with higher copper and JJC above 37.80 but copper is trading lower in early trading.

For the SPX starting at another new all-time high at 1891, the bulls only need two points higher, to push up through 1893 an acceleration will occur to test the 1900 handle. The bears need to push under 1884 to regain downside mojo. A move through 1885-1892 is sideways action. The bulls remain in firm control but the imminent turn notation remains until clarity occurs with GTX. The ECB Rate Decision is 7:45 AM EST and Press Conference 8:30 AM which will impact futures and set the market direction today. S&P futures are +1 at this writing about five hours before the US opening bell.

4/6/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/2/14; 2:32 PM EST = +63; signal line is +49
4/2/14; 12:49 PM EST = +49; signal line is +48

Wednesday, April 2, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION --TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long as the market circus continues. Commodities collapse today and are the bear's hope to place a lid on any further market upside. Watch GTX 4879. Price dropped under creating market weakness this morning but a short time ago GTX pushed back above which ushered in the highs of the day for the SPX; now price falls back under 4879 to 4874 helping bears again. GTX 4879 is steering the ship today and provides the market path ahead.

The SPX receives its smidge of upside so price accelerated about five handles to near 1891. The bulls are driving the bus but note the algo number and signal line are only one point difference. The bull-bear fight continues. Bears need to keep GTX under 4879 to stop the market upside. Bulls need to push GTX above 4879 and the path to SPX 1900 proceeds. If GTX recovers to the bull camp the imminent turn notation may be removed.

4/4/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/2/14; 12:49 PM EST = +49; signal line is +48
4/2/14; 12:25 PM EST = +63; signal line is +48
4/2/14; 10:11 AM EST = +49; signal line is +47
4/1/14; 9:30 AM EST = +63; signal line is +48; go long 1877; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +1.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.0%; Actual for 2014 = +3.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is bullish moving into the Wednesday session. Markets remain a toss-up. Since equities are jumping higher, no one noticed commodities dropping. The bears need GTX 4880 and lower to create market negativity. Also, bears need RTH under 59.53 and/or VIX above 14.47. Any one of these three will place an immediate lid on the market upside, otherwise, markets float higher. Bulls will receive more upside fuel with higher copper with JJC moving above 37.75 (this equates to copper moving up to 3.10-3.11 and higher now printing about 3.06).

For the SPX starting at 1886, any smidge of green in the S&P futures will create several more handles of upside with price moving into the 1890's. The S&P futures are +2 as this is typed less than three hours before the opening bell. The bears must retrace yesterdays move and push the SPX under 1874 to regain downside mojo. A move through 1875-1886 is sideways action.

The bulls are driving the bus but markets remain a bull-bear struggle. Bulls will push equities higher unless the bears achieve GTX 4880, RTH 59.53 and/or VIX 14.46. If any one of these three parameters turn bearish and the SPX drops under 1874, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side so the imminent turn notation remains for now. Today will be interesting. The ECB Rate Decision is tomorrow and Monthly Jobs Report Friday morning so the markets may experience wild gyrations as the week finishes.

4/4/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/1/14; 9:30 AM EST = +63; signal line is +48; go long 1877; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +1.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.0%; Actual for 2014 = +3.7%)

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips long after the opening bell at SPX 1877. The retail sector launches higher providing the bull fuel. Volatility drops providing market upside. Copper is positive. The last three weeks results in dead flat markets. The algorithm mapped a flat move for the last trade with the actual trading by Keybot resulting in a  -1.0% loss. Keybot cycles out of SDS and into SSO. The move to the long side may have whipsaw written all over it but the next day or so will make that decision.

Watch RTH 59.53. Bulls win above. Bears win below. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 1884.60. Bears got nothing unless they push RTH under 59.53. The imminent turn status remains since markets remain in a sideways struggle. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw.

4/6/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/1/14; 9:30 AM EST = +63; signal line is +48; go long 1877; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +1.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.0%; Actual for 2014 = +3.7%)
3/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +47; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains short
3/31/14; 10:15 AM EST = +47; signal line is +48
3/31/14; 9:58 AM EST = +63; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
3/31/14; 9:36 AM EST = +47; signal line is +48
3/30/14; 7:00 PM EST = +33; signal line is +48
3/28/14; 2:06 PM EST = +33; signal line is +49
3/28/14; 10:00 AM EST = +47; signal line is +49
3/28/14; 9:36 AM EST = +47; signal line is +50
3/26/14; 3:16 PM EST = +33; signal line is +50
3/26/14; 3:02 PM EST = +47; signal line is +51
3/26/14; 1:38 PM EST = +33; signal line is +51
3/26/14; 12:31 PM EST = +47; signal line is +52
3/25/14; 3:45 PM EST = +63; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains short
3/25/14; 3:21 PM EST = +49; signal line is +51
3/25/14; 3:13 PM EST = +33; signal line is +51
3/25/14; 2:35 PM EST = +49; signal line is +52
3/25/14; 1:32 PM EST = +63; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains short
3/25/14; 1:29 PM EST = +47; signal line is +52
3/25/14; 11:51 AM EST = +33; signal line is +52
3/25/14; 10:56 AM EST = +49; signal line is +53
3/25/14; 10:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
3/25/14; 9:36 AM EST = +62; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains short
3/24/14; 1:34 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52
3/24/14; 11:31 AM EST = +32; signal line is +52
3/23/14; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +54
3/21/14; 1:28 PM EST = +48; signal line is +54
3/21/14; 10:54 AM EST = +62; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
3/21/14; 10:13 AM EST = +48; signal line is +52
3/21/14; 9:36 AM EST = +62; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains short
3/19/14; 2:44 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52
3/19/14; 2:25 PM EST = +62; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains short
3/19/14; 2:05 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52
3/19/14; 1:30 PM EST = +62; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains short
3/18/14; 2:21 PM EST = +48; signal line is +51
3/18/14; 1:36 PM EST = +62; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains short
3/18/14; 11:49 AM EST = +48; signal line is +51
3/18/14; 11:31 AM EST = +62; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains short
3/18/14; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +51
3/16/14; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +51
3/14/14; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +51
3/9/14; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +51
3/7/14; 1:06 PM EST = +48; signal line is +51
3/7/14; 12:25 PM EST = +62; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains short
3/7/14; 11:03 AM EST = +48; signal line is +51; go short 1873; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +1.4%)(Keybot this trade = +1.5%; Keybot for 2014 = +4.0%)(Actual this trade = +0.7%; Actual for 2014 = +4.7%)