Sunday, June 30, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new, holiday-shortened, week of trading. The bulls will continue to float markets higher with UTIL 480.82, RTH 51.48 and XLF 19.20 all remaining in the bull camp creating upside fuel. The bears will initiate market selling if any one of the three parameters fail and accelerate the downside if more than one fails. If utilities, retail and financial sectors remain bullish, the bears got nothing.

For the SPX starting at 1606, the bulls need to touch the 1616 handle and the upside will accelerate to test the important 1618-1623 resistance area. The bears need to push under 1601 and the strong 1597-1600 support will fold like a cheap suit with price heading to the 1593 support. A move through 1602-1615 is sideways action. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

7/7/13; 7:00 PM EST =
7/5/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +21; signal line is +0
6/28/13; 10:00 AM EST = +21; signal line is +1

Saturday, June 29, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend ending June. Utilities, retail and financial sectors are steering the bus right now and all three remain bullish. The levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints.

6/30/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/28/13; 10:00 AM EST = +21; signal line is +1

Friday, June 28, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the Friday session is underway. The pre-scheduled number results in no change. Watch UTIL since it came down to test the critical bull-bear danger line at 480.81 and bounced, now at 481.34. The bulls continue to drive the bus but if UTIL falls through 480.81, that will signal that the market selling has legs. XLF is 19.36 above the 19.20 line in the sand and RTH is 51.97 above the 51.48 level so the bulls are not particularly worried as yet.

6/30/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/28/13; 10:00 AM EST = +21; signal line is +1
6/26/13; 12:59 PM EST = +21; signal line is +1

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. UTIL 480.81, XLF 19.20 and RTH 51.48 remain key for the algo. All three are bullish so markets remain elevated and floating higher. Utilities weakened late day so pay particularly close attention to UTIL 480.81 since that would indicate that market selling is reappearing. If two of the three parameters above flip bearish and the SPX drops under 1607, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. For the SPX starting the Friday session at 1613, the bulls need to touch the 1620 handle and an upside acceleration will occur tagging 1626-1627 in quick order. The bears need to push under 1607 to accelerate the downside to 1600. If neither side can gain, or lose, the 6 to 7 points to win the day, then markets will be moving sideways through 1608-1619. The bulls are driving the bus. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time.

6/30/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/28/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/26/13; 12:59 PM EST = +21; signal line is +1
6/26/13; 12:51 PM EST = +5; signal line is +2

Thursday, June 27, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the Thursday session. Today will determine if the algo whipsaws back to the short side, or not. The market rally is tentative since the three key areas most influencing market direction right now are all dancing on their bull-bear lines in the sand; UTIL 480.81, XLF 19.20 and RTH 51.48. If all three parameters stay above these levels, the markets float higher. If any of the prices start to place upside distance away from the levels the markets will move strongly higher. If any one of the three lose the levels shown, the broad indexes will weaken again and drift lower. As a guesstimate, since you never know what the algo will do, if any two of the above three parameters turn bearish, and the SPX loses the 1592 level, Keybot will likely whipsaw back to the short side. Thus, the markets are tentative and continue along in a major tug-o-war struggle for control.

For the SPX starting at 1603, the bulls need to touch the 1607 handle and it will be off to the races higher with price pushing through 1609 R and on its way to test 1614 R. The bears must push under the 1592-1593 area which will accelerate the downside. A move through 1593-1606 is sideways action today. The bulls are driving the bus but markets remain shaky, erratic, unstable and indecisive.

6/30/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/28/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/26/13; 12:59 PM EST = +21; signal line is +1
6/26/13; 12:51 PM EST = +5; signal line is +2

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and prints two more numbers as the session moves along. XLF 19.20, UTIL 480.83 and RTH 51.48 all remain above these levels and bull-friendly.

6/30/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/28/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/26/13; 12:59 PM EST = +21; signal line is +1
6/26/13; 12:51 PM EST = +5; signal line is +2
6/26/13; 11:47 AM EST = +21; signal line is +4

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on long but the markets are very much dancing along a knife edge and can go either way. Some days Keybot idles along calmly without a peep while other days, like today, it starts rattling off numbers. XLF 19.20 and UTIL 480.83 are key. UTIL dances to and fro but now is stating to commit higher now at 482.29; ditto XLF now at 19.27.

6/28/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/26/13; 11:47 AM EST = +21; signal line is +4
6/26/13; 10:55 AM EST = +5; signal line is +5 but algorithm says stay long
6/26/13; 10:42 AM EST = +21; signal line is +6
6/26/13; 10:29 AM EST = +5; signal line is +7 but algorithm says stay long
6/26/13; 9:31 AM EST = +21; signal line is +7; go long 1601; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +13.7%)(Keybot this trade = +1.5%; Keybot for 2013 = +7.5%)(Actual this trade = +0.5%; Actual for 2013 = +4.2%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side. Things change quickly in fast-moving markets and a turn was not expected. The XLF blew through 19.19, UTIL through 481 and RTH through 51.48 catapulting the SPX over 1600. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw today or tomorrow. Keybot exited SH and entered DIA gaining one-half percent on the last trade. The caution flag remains out since anything can happen in these markets. Going forward, watch XLF 19.20, UTIL 480.83 and RTH 51.48 for any initial signs of market weakness. As long as all three remain in the bull camp, the broad indexes should drift higher.

6/30/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/28/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/26/13; 9:31 AM EST = +21; signal line is +7; go long 1601; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +13.7%)(Keybot this trade = +1.5%; Keybot for 2013 = +7.5%)(Actual this trade = +0.5%; Actual for 2013 = +4.2%)
6/26/13; 9:30 AM EST = +5; signal line is +8
6/25/13; 10:37 AM EST = -27; signal line is +8
6/25/13; 10:11 AM EST = -43; signal line is +9
6/25/13; 10:00 AM EST = -27; signal line is +11
6/25/13; 9:30 AM EST = -29; signal line is +13
6/24/13; 9:31 AM EST = -45; signal line is +15
6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST = -29; signal line is +18
6/21/13; 3:40 PM EST = -29; signal line is +20
6/21/13; 3:08 PM EST = -13; signal line is +23
6/21/13; 10:25 AM EST = -29; signal line is +24
6/21/13; 9:30 AM EST = -13; signal line is +25
6/20/13; 2:48 PM EST = -29; signal line is +26
6/20/13; 2:18 PM EST = -13; signal line is +27
6/20/13; 9:30 AM EST = +3; signal line is +29; go short 1625; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +14.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.8%; Keybot for 2013 = +6.0%)(Actual this trade = -1.4%; Actual for 2013 = +3.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Wednesday session. The market bears will receive downside juice if SOX drops under 457.20. The market bulls will receive upside fuel if XLF moves above 19.19. Further upside market fuel will occur if RTH moves above 51.48 and/or UTIL 481. The move from the bear camp to the bull camp for XLF 19.19, RTH 51.48 and UTIL 481.00 determines the strength of any recovery rally.

For the SPX starting at 1588, the bulls need to touch the 1594 handle and it is off to the races higher with a test of the 1597-1600 resistance zone occurring quickly. The bears need to push under 1577 to accelerate the selling. A move through 1578-1593 is sideways action. S&P futures are +2 about five hours before the U.S. open.

6/28/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/25/13; 10:37 AM EST = -27; signal line is +8
6/25/13; 10:11 AM EST = -43; signal line is +9

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Semiconductors fall on their sword with the SOX dropping. Watch SOX 457.20 (instead of the 457.00) as the bull-bear line in the sand. SOX is currently printing 456.61. Probably lots more drama in store for semi's as the day moves along.

6/28/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/25/13; 10:11 AM EST = -43; signal line is +9
6/25/13; 10:00 AM EST = -27; signal line is +11
6/25/13; 9:30 AM EST = -29; signal line is +13
6/24/13; 9:31 AM EST = -45; signal line is +15

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo printing a number at the open and also the pre-scheduled number. SOX jumps above 457.00 which creates today's market lift, however, price is drifting back below. Watch SOX 457.00 and RTH 51.48. Note how the SPX ran to the 1588-1589 as described in the prior message, but fell on its sword, at least so far today. Bulls got nothing unless they push semi's higher.

6/30/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/28/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/25/13; 10:00 AM EST = -27; signal line is +11
6/25/13; 9:30 AM EST = -29; signal line is +13
6/24/13; 9:31 AM EST = -45; signal line is +15

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish. The algo is tracking four parameters which are most greatly influencing market direction; SOX 457.00, RTH 51.38, XLF 19.25 and NYA 8782. Semi's, retail and financial sectors, respectively, are creating market negativity. Therefore, the market bulls need to regain these parameters to move the broad indexes higher. The degree of which each, or any of the three, recover, will dictate how strong a relief rally occurs. NYA 8782 is creating bullishness in markets right now and is the line in the sand the bears need to create further market downside. Thus, bulls are pushing for SOX 457.00, RTH 51.48 and XLF 19.25 to regain upside strength while bears are pushing for NYA 8782 to continue the market slide south.

For the SPX on Tuesday starting at 1573, the bulls need to push above 1588 and touch the 1589 handle to accelerate the upside to the psychological 1600 level in quick order. The bears need to push under 1561 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1562-1587 is sideways action. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the action can be updated mid-morning. Pay attention to semi's and retail, SOX 457.00 and RTH 51.48, respectively.

6/28/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/25/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/24/13; 9:31 AM EST = -45; signal line is +15
6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST = -29; signal line is +18

Monday, June 24, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as another strong selling session continues. Semiconductors fail today adding bear fuel to markets. Watch SOX 457.00, now at 450.22. Bulls need to regain the SOX 457 level.  Moving forward, the algo is now tracking NYA 8786. Current NYA print is 8847 only about 60 points above. If NYA 8786 fails, the broad indexes will take yet another leg lower with the SPX heading towards the 1550's. The bears are driving the bus with the algo number 60 points under the signal line; firmly bearish.

6/25/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/24/13; 9:31 AM EST = -45; signal line is +15
6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST = -29; signal line is +18

Sunday, June 23, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is bearish moving into the new week. Retail, financial and semiconductor sectors dictate market direction. Watch SOX 456.35 (now above causing market bullishness), RTH 51.48 (now below causing market bearishness) and XLF 19.25 (now below causing bearishness). If the prices remain as is, the broad indexes will float along sideways. The bulls need RTH 51.48 and/or XLF 19.25. Bears need SOX 456.35. If the bulls start to run higher watch UTIL 481 since that will signal lots more market upside ahead, however, if UTIL remains under 481, any bounce in the markets will likely result in a roll over to the downside again.

For the SPX, starting at 1592, the bulls need to punch up through 1599, and touch the 1600 handle, and the upside will accelerate into a mini recovery rally to test 1609 and perhaps 1614. The bears need to push under 1578, and the strong 1576 support should fold like a cheap suit, with price moving towards the 1560's.  A move through 1579-1596 is sideways action for Monday. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week, one on Tuesday and one on Friday. The EOM, EOQ2 and EOH1 occurs Friday. The most important parameter above is RTH 51.48 as the opening bell rings tomorrow.

6/30/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/28/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/25/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST = -29; signal line is +18
6/21/13; 3:40 PM EST = -29; signal line is +20

Saturday, June 22, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short through the weekend. The algo printed a couple more numbers in the last hour of trading. Keybot is tracking three sectors with interest that are determining market direction currently; retail, financials and semiconductors. RTH and XLF are creating bearishness as witnessed by Friday's action. SOX is creating bullishness preventing further market downside. Thus, the bulls will recover with RTH and XLF while the bears will continue to move markets lower if SOX weakens. The levels of interest can be identified once the pre-scheduled Sunday number prints tomorrow. RTH 51.48 will be very important. The bears are cruising with the algo number 49 points under the signal line.

6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/21/13; 3:40 PM EST = -29; signal line is +20
6/21/13; 3:08 PM EST = -13; signal line is +23
6/21/13; 10:25 AM EST = -29; signal line is +24

Friday, June 21, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. RTH fell on its sword, now at 51.40, returning to the bear camp so the equity markets drift lower again. XLF is 19.05 well under 19.29 causing bearishness. SOX is 459.15 remaining above the 465.10 bull-bear line in the sand helping bulls. Bulls need to bring RTH or XLF into their camp to move markets higher while the bears need to move SOX under 456.10 to send markets lower.

6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/21/13; 10:25 AM EST = -29; signal line is +24
6/21/13; 9:30 AM EST = -13; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short as the Friday session begins. RTH pops to 51.55 back to the bull camp creating market buoyancy but XLF remains in the bear camp under 19.27 influencing markets negatively. Watch these two parameters closely today to determine market direction.

6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/21/13; 9:30 AM EST = -13; signal line is +25
6/20/13; 2:48 PM EST = -29; signal line is +26

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns for 2013

Keybot the Quant, continues to navigate through a difficult trading environment. The chart shows the algo turns for 2013 thus far.  Markets have been moving sideways through 1590-1670, an 80-point range, for two months. Stocks have wiped out all gains in May and June and are back to April levels. The sideways choppiness is created by the higher volatility. The algo moves from short to long and back to short over the last month clearly illustrate the ongoing market indecision. For now, the bears are driving the bus but time will tell how long this direction remains. Pay attention to RTH 51.46 and XLF 19.27 to determine market direction in the near-term. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Thursday, June 20, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short with the algo number now 55 points under the signal line. What a difference a day makes. Obviously, today was a special day in markets with large market losses and technical damage occurring. RTH 51.46 and XLF 19.27 folded like a cheap suit. Retail and financials remain key since these two will tell you if the bulls are mounting a relief rally, or not.  Thus, the bulls need either RTH 51.46 or XLF 19.27 to signal the market path higher. The algo is now tracking semiconductors. Watch SOX 456.10, now at 459.72 creating market bullishness. Equities will take another leg lower if SOX 456.10 gives way.

For the SPX starting at 1588, the bears need a four-point drop through 1584, and another acceleration move lower is on tap, likely to tap the strong 1576 support. The bulls are trying to stop the bleeding and will do that with RTH 51.46 or XLF 19.27. Bears need SOX 456.10.

6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/20/13; 2:48 PM EST = -29; signal line is +26
6/20/13; 2:18 PM EST = -13; signal line is +27
6/20/13; 9:30 AM EST = +3; signal line is +29; go short 1625; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +14.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.8%; Keybot for 2013 = +6.0%)(Actual this trade = -1.4%; Actual for 2013 = +3.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short as the markets crumble. The broad indexes will continue to sell off with RTH under 51.47 and XLF under 19.28. The algo is now tracking semiconductors. Watch SOX 456.00, now at 458.76. Markets will take a further leg down if SOX loses 456.00. The bears are cruising. Watch XLF 19.28 closely.

6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/20/13; 2:48 PM EST = -29; signal line is +26
6/20/13; 2:18 PM EST = -13; signal line is +27
6/20/13; 9:30 AM EST = +3; signal line is +29; go short 1625; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +14.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.8%; Keybot for 2013 = +6.0%)(Actual this trade = -1.4%; Actual for 2013 = +3.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips short at the opening bell at SPX 1625. The last trade results in a loss since the markets continue along a volatile zig-zag path. Keybot exits SPY and enters SH. UTIL remains under 481.10 which signals continued broad market weakness. GTX collapses through 4764 creating more negativity. XLF is 19.33 on the verge of losing the 19.29 bull-bear line in the sand. XLF under 19.29 means serious trouble for markets ahead. Keybot is now also tracking RTH 51.50 which will also create further equity negativity. The bears are driving the bus.

6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/20/13; 9:30 AM EST = +3; signal line is +29; go short 1625; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +14.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.8%; Keybot for 2013 = +6.0%)(Actual this trade = -1.4%; Actual for 2013 = +3.7%)
6/19/13; 3:53 PM EST = +17; signal line is +30 but algorithm says stay long
6/19/13; 2:18 PM EST = +33; signal line is +30
6/18/13; 10:25 AM EST = +49; signal line is +30
6/18/13; 9:00 AM EST = +33; signal line is +30
6/17/13; 2:15 PM EST = +33; signal line is +30
6/17/13; 1:03 PM EST = +49; signal line is +31
6/17/13; 12:11 PM EST = +33; signal line is +30
6/17/13; 9:30 AM EST = +49; signal line is +31; go long 1638; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +14.9%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2013 = +6.8%)(Actual this trade = -2.0%; Actual for 2013 = +5.1%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but a turn to the short side appears imminent. The UTIL failure at 488.48 creates market negativity and the UTIL 481.10 failure is serious business. The UTIL 481.10 failure occurs in the last few minutes of the session and is enough to trigger Keybot to the short side but the day ended before the algo could make the move to the bear side. Watch UTIL 481.10 at the opening bell since markets are in trouble if utilities stay under this level. If UTIL recovers above 481.10, the markets will stabilize. Keybot should flip short at the opening bell, however, a gap-down open of 11 or 12 points may delay the move to the short side up to 90 minutes.

For the SPX today starting at 1629, closing at the lows, the bears only need to see a smidge of red in the futures and that will lead to an acceleration lower for the SPX after the opening bell.  The bulls are simply trying to stop the bleeding and can immediately help markets stabilize if they attain UTIL 481.10. Keybot is now tracking XLF 19.30 (now causing market bullishness at 19.60) so pay attention to this level moving forward since it will lead to extended and sustainable broad market selling. Markets remain erratic and unstable. The imminent turn notation is added above. The opening minutes of trading for Thursday are important. The S&P futures are -11 at this writing five hours before the U.S. open drifting into the gap-down territory described above.

6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/19/13; 3:53 PM EST = +17; signal line is +30 but algorithm says stay long
6/19/13; 2:18 PM EST = +33; signal line is +30

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long in choppy erratic action. UTIL is under 488.48 creating market negativity. Keep watching this number as well as UTIL 481.15 which would signal serious market trouble. The algo number is only three ticks from the signal line so the caution flag is out. The bulls are driving the bus but the markets are shaky.

6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/19/13; 2:18 PM EST = +33; signal line is +30
6/18/13; 10:25 AM EST = +49; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is bullish moving into the Wednesday session. UTIL moves above 488.48 yesterday lighting the path higher for equities. The bulls are cruising with UTIL above 488.48 (this number is important through Friday) and GTX above 4764. Bears got nothing unless they can move UTIL and GTX lower. For the SPX starting at strong S/R at 1652, the bulls only need two points, to punch through 1654, and the upside bull party will continue to 1659 and 1661.  The bears need to push under 1640 for the downside to accelerate to 1636 quickly. A move through 1641-1653 is sideways action. Markets remain very erratic and unstable.

6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/13; 10:25 AM EST = +49; signal line is +30
6/18/13; 9:00 AM EST = +33; signal line is +30

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long. UTIL moves above 488.48 so the bulls are cruising. SPX punches up through 1646.50 creating a quick jump to near 1648 but price should receive much more oomph to at least attack the 1649-1650 resistance, as long as UTIL stays above 488.48. Bears are trying to push UTIL back under 488.48 to create market selling pressure.

6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/13; 10:25 AM EST = +49; signal line is +30
6/18/13; 9:00 AM EST = +33; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the Tuesday session begins. The pre-scheduled number results in no change. UTIL is 486.87 under the critical 488.48 for this week but above the 481.15. GTX jumps higher to 4782 above the 4764 bull-bear line in the sand. Markets are status quo. SPX is at 1644 and climbing towards the 1646.50 number that is important for today.  The markets will run out of gas if UTIL does not move above 488.48. If UTIL takes out 488.48 to the upside, then the SPX should run through 1646-1647 on its way to 1649-1650. 

6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/13; 9:00 AM EST = +33; signal line is +30
6/17/13; 2:15 PM EST = +33; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but the markets remain a coin-toss. Equities are erratic and unstable fighting for a direction forward and can go either way. The algo number is only three ticks from the signal line showing that markets are in a tug-o-war right now. Yields popped late afternoon yesterday which sent utilities lower. UTIL failed the 488.48 line which makes for happy bears, but, is above the 481.15 line which makes for happy bulls. Watch 488.48 and 481.15 closely today. Watch GTX 4764, commodities, with price only a few ticks above favoring the bulls. If GTX drops under 4764 today, it will create market negativity. Keybot should whipsaw back to the short side today if either the UTIL 481.15 or GTX 4764 fails, and the SPX drops under 1631. If UTIL stays above 481.15 and GTX above 4764, the bulls will continue driving the bus.

For the SPX starting at 1639, the bulls need about 7 or 8 points of upside, to punch up through 1646.50, and the upside will accelerate with an immediate test of the important 1649-1650 resistance occurring. The bears need to push under 1631 to accelerate the downside which will test 1626-1627 support in quick order.  A move through 1632-1645 is sideways action today. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 9 AM so the action can be updated at that time.

6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/17/13; 2:15 PM EST = +33; signal line is +30
6/17/13; 1:03 PM EST = +49; signal line is +31

Monday, June 17, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long with the algo printing two more numbers today.  Utilities are dancing to and fro around the UTIL 488.48 bull-bear danger line. Watch UTIL 488.48 and GTX 4764.

6/18/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/17/13; 1:03 PM EST = +49; signal line is +31
6/17/13; 12:11 PM EST = +33; signal line is +30
6/17/13; 9:30 AM EST = +49; signal line is +31; go long 1638; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +14.9%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2013 = +6.8%)(Actual this trade = -2.0%; Actual for 2013 = +5.1%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at the open at SPX 1638. UTIL explodes above the critical 488.48 for this week and GTX stays above 4764 verifying the bullish call. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side again. The algo program lost one percent on the last trade and the actual trading lost -2.0%. Keybot flipped out of SDS and into SPY. The algo is now using single ETF's again due to the market instability. The double ETF's will return if a whipsaw does not occur (if Keybot stays long for at least 48 hours). Watch UTIL 488.48 and GTX 4764 for clues moving forward. For now the bulls are driving the bus but the markets remain a toss-up.

6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/17/13; 9:30 AM EST = +49; signal line is +31; go long 1638; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +14.9%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2013 = +6.8%)(Actual this trade = -2.0%; Actual for 2013 = +5.1%)
6/16/13; 7:00 PM EST = +49; signal line is +31 but algorithm says stay short
6/14/13; 10:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +30 but algorithm says stay short
6/14/13; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +28 but algorithm says stay short
6/13/13; 2:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm says stay short
6/13/13; 1:45 PM EST = +20; signal line is +27
6/13/13; 12:47 PM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm says stay short
6/13/13; 12:37 PM EST = +20; signal line is +27
6/12/13; 11:51 AM EST = +4; signal line is +28; go short 1622; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +13.7%)(Keybot this trade = -0.7%; Keybot for 2013 = +7.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.4%; Actual for 2013 = +7.1%)

Sunday, June 16, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is bearish through the weekend. The increased volatility is causing ever-larger point swings in the broad indexes. The algo is most fixated on two parameters; utilities and commodities. Watch UTIL 488.48 and GTX 4763. If UTIL jumps above 488.48 after the opening bell, the bulls got game. If the GTX drops under 4763, the bears got game.

For the SPX starting at the strong 1626-1627 support/resistance, the bulls need to push above 1640 and the upside will accelerate for a test at 1649-1650 resistance. The bears need to push under 1624 to signal the all-clear for accelerated downside. The SPX will drop to test 1618 then 1614. A move through 1625-1639 is sideways action to begin the week. Keybot wants to flip long but the internal programming rules are not aligned properly to trigger the move. If the SPX moves above 1641, Keybot will likely flip long. If GTX drops under 4763 that will tell you immediately that the bears will be favored in Monday trading and the flip to the long side may be taken off the table. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning. The markets remain erratic and unstable and can move either way; use UTIL 488.48 and GTX 4763 as key metrics to gauge market direction.

6/23/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/16/13; 7:00 PM EST = +49; signal line is +31 but algorithm says stay short
6/14/13; 10:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +30 but algorithm says stay short

Saturday, June 15, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend. The algo idled along on Friday without printing any numbers after the 10 AM pre-scheduled number. A wild week of trading action occurs with a big down Wednesday, big up and recovery Thursday, then big down on Friday again. The algo was a hair away from whipsawing back to the long side at the Thursday close at 1638+ but the internal programming rules would not trigger the move and then on Friday the bears growl again. Commodities, GTX, is 4775, above the 4763 bull-bear line so this helps the bull case next week. UTIL finished at 485.33 between the two critical bull-bear levels, one at 481.00 and the other at 488.48. The move in UTIL at Monday's opening bell will provide a direct gauge on market direction depending on which direction it chooses. The imminent turn notation remains in place since Keybot wants to go long but is held back by internal programming rules. If market bullish, you want to see the SPX move above 1641 and higher to signal the all-clear for upside. If bearish, you want to see UTIL and GTX weaken to increase the market selling pressure. Next week's areas and levels of interest can be provided tomorrow once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints. 

6/16/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/14/13; 10:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +30 but algorithm says stay short
6/14/13; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +28 but algorithm says stay short

Friday, June 14, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo wants to flip to the long side. Other programming rules are not yet lined up properly to trigger the move. Note that GTX jumped higher at the open and will help the bulls. Also, UTIL jumps to a HOD at 488.22 only pennies from the 488.48 number that Keybot is calling out as important for all next week. The bulls appear to have the strength to run higher but the SPX is not yet on board today. Watch to see if the SPX starts running higher.

6/16/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/14/13; 10:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +30 but algorithm says stay short
6/14/13; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +28 but algorithm says stay short
6/13/13; 2:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short going into the Friday session but the algo should flip long at the opening bell so the imminent turn notation is added above. Keybot would have flipped long in the final minutes of the Thursday session but the slight drop in the SPX in the final minutes held back the change. A gap-up move would cause the algo to perhaps wait about 90 minutes this morning before completing the move to the long side. Utilities recovered yesterday with UTIL moving above both 480.94 and 481.39 creating the lift in equities. Interestingly, the UTIL 481.39 number is replaced with 488.48 at 4 PM EST today. UTIL begins the day at 484.98 comfortably above the 481.39 but by the closing bell today, UTIL must move above 488.48, otherwise, markets will weaken again next week. Keybot should flip long at the open today in a whipsaw move from the move to the short side on Wednesday, and if UTIL does not move above 488.48 today, next week may be set up for another whipsaw back to the short side. Obviously, the markets remain erratic and unstable.

A pre-scheduled number prints at 10 AM so the market action and the likely move to the long side can be updated as the morning progresses. Commodities are important and the bulls will receive upside fuel if GTX moves above 4759 (now at 4738). For the SPX today starting at 1636, the bulls need to move above 1639 and the upside will accelerate likely towards a test of the 1649-1650 resistance. The bears need to retrace yesterday's move, a formidable task, but not impossible, as shown by yesterdays action with the bulls retracing the prior day's bear move. The bears will likely instead focus on pushing UTIL back under 481.39 and especially keeping UTIL under 488.48 at the closing bell today.

6/16/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/14/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/13/13; 2:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm says stay short
6/13/13; 1:45 PM EST = +20; signal line is +27

Thursday, June 13, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as UTIL plays around at the critical 481.39. Here comes another push higher.....

6/16/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/14/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/13/13; 1:45 PM EST = +20; signal line is +27
6/13/13; 12:47 PM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short but the bulls are fighting back today sending UTIL above both the 480.94 and 481.39 levels creating broad market upside. Keybot is in position to whipsaw back to the long side but other programming rules are not in place to trigger the move. The SPX likely needs to print above 1638 today to trigger the move back to the long side so watch UTIL 480.94 and 481.39 and SPX 1638 very closely as the afternoon progresses.

6/14/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/13/13; 12:47 PM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm says stay short
6/13/13; 12:37 PM EST = +20; signal line is +27
6/12/13; 11:51 AM EST = +4; signal line is +28; go short 1622; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +13.7%)(Keybot this trade = -0.7%; Keybot for 2013 = +7.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.4%; Actual for 2013 = +7.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the Thursday session. The algo idled along for the remainder of Wednesday without printing any additional numbers after the flip to the short side. The market bulls need to send utilities and/or commodities higher to reverse the down move in the broad indexes, so watch UTIL 480.94, UTIL 481.39 (now at 478.04) and GTX 4758 (now at 4709). Markets will steadily recover to the upside if these levels are attained.  For the bears, more downside market fuel will occur with SOX (semiconductors) dropping under 454.85 (now at 458.33) and/or XLF 19.25 (now at 19.44).

For the SPX starting at 1613, the bears only need two points lower, to drop under 1611, and the downside will accelerate towards 1600. The bulls have a tougher road ahead for today, needing to push the SPX up to 1638 to stop the market slide and regain upside momentum, a formidable task but not impossible. A move through 1612-1637 is sideways action today. If the utilities sector recovers and the algo moves towards the bull side wanting to go long, Keybot will likely not flip long today unless the SPX 1638+ is attained. The bears are driving the bus. S&P futures are -8 about three and one-half hours before the U.S. opening bell. Markets remain very erratic and unstable.

6/16/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/14/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/12/13; 11:51 AM EST = +4; signal line is +28; go short 1622; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +13.7%)(Keybot this trade = -0.7%; Keybot for 2013 = +7.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.4%; Actual for 2013 = +7.1%)

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side a short time ago at SPX 1622.  The market bears should be in good shape unless UTIL regains 481.00. The algo program lost a smidge on the last trade and the actual trading lost -1.4%. Keybot flipped from SSO into SDS. As always stay alert for a whipsaw move either today or tomorrow. Keep watching the utilities.

6/14/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/12/13; 11:51 AM EST = +4; signal line is +28; go short 1622; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +13.7%)(Keybot this trade = -0.7%; Keybot for 2013 = +7.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.4%; Actual for 2013 = +7.1%)
6/12/13; 10:45 AM EST = +4; signal line is +29 but algorithm says stay long
6/12/13; 10:40 AM EST = +20; signal line is +29 but algorithm says stay long
6/9/13; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30
6/7/13; 10:02 AM EST = +36; signal line is +30; go long 1633; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +14.5%)(Keybot this trade = +1.7%; Keybot for 2013 = +8.5%)(Actual this trade = +3.0%; Actual for 2013 = +8.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but utilities have failed both the UTIL 481.39 and 481.00 levels signaling trouble ahead. The anticipation is that markets should start to accelerate lower but the bulls are hanging on. The SPX LOD is 1624.24 not under 1623 as yet. Keybot wants to flip short but the internal programming rules are not yet lined up properly. Flip a coin, markets are at an inflection point right now. If UTIL stays under 481, the broad indexes should sell off. The turn may be imminent; watch to see if SPX sub 1623 occurs.

6/14/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/12/13; 10:45 AM EST = +4; signal line is +29 but algorithm says stay long
6/12/13; 10:40 AM EST = +20; signal line is +29 but algorithm says stay long
6/9/13; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long going into the Wednesday session. The drama with the utilities sector will continue today with UTIL 481.39 and 481.00 key lines in the sand (UTIL now at 482.15). The broad indexes will noticeably worsen if UTIL 481.39 fails and deteriorate rapidly if 481.00 fails. Of course, like yesterday, if the bulls can keep their head above water, and keep UTIL above 481.39, the broad indexes will recover and move higher. The bulls need to move commodities higher to receive upside fuel so watch GTX 4755 (now at 4691). If UTIL 481.39 fails, and the SPX drops under 1623, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. If the SPX stays above 1623 all day long, Keybot will likely remain long.

For the SPX today starting at the strong 1626-1627 support/resistance, the bulls need to touch the 1640 handle, 14 points higher, to accelerate the upside and signal the all-clear for bullish markets ahead. The bears have an easier road ahead only needing three points lower, to drop under 1623, to accelerate the downside which will likely tag 1618 and 1614 in short order. A move through 1624-1639 is sideways action today. The S&P futures are up +7 at this writing about six hours before the U.S. open. Utilities are key to market direction right now; watch UTIL 481.39 like a hawk today. The 10-year yield rising hurts utes and the yield is up a couple of ticks this morning to 2.21%. Keybot did not whipsaw since the move to the long side is now beyond 48 hours.

6/16/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/14/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/9/13; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the Tuesday session. The algo idled along yesterday without printing any numbers. At this juncture about four hours ahead of the U.S. opening bell, the S&P futures are down -12. Now -13. Now -14. Watch to see if UTIL loses 481.39 and 481.03. Losing UTIL 481.39 will create market negativity and position Keybot to flip back to the short side. Losing 481.03 will create far greater market negativity and selling with the SPX heading towards 1600. Independent of the drop in equities that appears on tap this morning, UTIL is the key. If 481.39 fails, the market downside is for real. If UTIL stays above 481.39, the markets will stabilize in favor of the bulls. Keybot uses a 48-hour window to determine if a whipsaw occurs, or not. Thus, if Keybot flips short before 10 AM, the algo will revert to using single ETF's again to lower risk.

For the SPX starting at 1643, the bulls need to touch the 1649 handle to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1639 to accelerate the downside, and considering the deteriorating futures, price should immediately slice down through 1639 at the open. Initial support below is 1634, 1626-1627 and 1623.

6/14/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/9/13; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30
6/7/13; 10:02 AM EST = +36; signal line is +30; go long 1633; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +14.5%)(Keybot this trade = +1.7%; Keybot for 2013 = +8.5%)(Actual this trade = +3.0%; Actual for 2013 = +8.5%)

Sunday, June 9, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is bullish moving into the new week of trading.  The algo is tracking four parameters; utilities, commodities, copper and volatility, in this order of importance. Watch UTIL 481.39 and 480.83. Price is above these levels and created much of Friday's bullishness. Bears need to drop UTIL under the levels shown; a failure under 480.83 and the broad indexes will be dropping dramatically. Bulls are on easy street if UTIL stays above 481.39. Watch GTX 4765, now bearish. Bulls will receive upside market fuel if GTX moves above 4765. Watch JJC 41.37, now bearish. Bulls will receive upside fuel if JJC moves above 41.37. Watch VIX 13.40, now bearish. Bulls will receive upside fuel if VIX is pushed under 13.40. If the bulls cannot achieve GTX 4765, JJC 41.37 or VIX 13.40, they got nothing, and markets will roll over again.

For the SPX starting at 1643, the bulls only need one point higher, to punch up through 1644 and an upside acceleration will occur to test the important 1646-1653 resistance area, a critical bull-bear battleground. The bears need to push under 1626, a formidable task, but not at all impossible especially in more volatile markets, and the downside will accelerate to 1622 and 1618 in short order. A move through 1627-1643 is sideways action.  Markets remain very erratic and unstable and can go either way. The window is open on Monday for a potential whipsaw move back to the short side. The bulls will be in better shape if they can get through Monday unscathed. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Pay attention to UTIL 481 since, in general, bulls are in fine shape if UTIL stays above 481. If UTIL 481 fails, the markets are in serious trouble.

6/16/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/14/13; 10:00 AM EST =
6/9/13; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30
6/7/13; 10:02 AM EST = +36; signal line is +30; go long 1633; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +14.5%)(Keybot this trade = +1.7%; Keybot for 2013 = +8.5%)(Actual this trade = +3.0%; Actual for 2013 = +8.5%)

Saturday, June 8, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long through the weekend.  The bulls run higher in the Friday session flipping the algo to the long side. Higher utilities create much of the upside. UTIL closed above 481.39, which is an important number for next week, so the bulls receive a feather for their cap. Utilities, volatility, commodities and copper are all important for next week. The key levels of interest can be identified for next week for these sectors once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow. The bulls are driving the bus again but markets remain very shaky. The caution flag remains out since the algo number and signal line are only six ticks difference.

6/9/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/7/13; 10:02 AM EST = +36; signal line is +30; go long 1633; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +14.5%)(Keybot this trade = +1.7%; Keybot for 2013 = +8.5%)(Actual this trade = +3.0%; Actual for 2013 = +8.5%)

Friday, June 7, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 1633. The utilities are running higher providing the bulls with the upper hand. Copper remains weak. The algo program gains +1.7% on the last move and the actual trading gains +3% on the market down move. Keybot flips from SDS into SSO. Stay alert for a whipsaw either today or Monday especially in these erratic and volatile markets.

6/9/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/7/13; 10:02 AM EST = +36; signal line is +30; go long 1633; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +14.5%)(Keybot this trade = +1.7%; Keybot for 2013 = +8.5%)(Actual this trade = +3.0%; Actual for 2013 = +8.5%)
6/7/13; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm says stay short
6/5/13; 2:26 PM EST = +36; signal line is +31 but algorithm says stay short
6/5/13; 1:06 PM EST = +20; signal line is +31
6/5/13; 12:18 PM EST = +4; signal line is +32
6/5/13; 9:34 AM EST = +20; signal line is +33
6/5/13; 9:30 AM EST = +4; signal line is +34
6/4/13; 11:21 AM EST = +20; signal line is +35
6/4/13; 10:58 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37
6/4/13; 9:31 AM EST = +20; signal line is +37
6/4/13; 9:30 AM EST = +36; signal line is +38
6/4/13; 3:27 PM EST = +52; signal line is +38 but algorithm says stay short
6/4/13; 1:28 PM EST = +36; signal line is +38
6/4/13; 12:41 PM EST = +52; signal line is +38 but algorithm says stay short
6/4/13; 12:04 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37
6/4/13; 9:37 AM EST = +52; signal line is +38 but algorithm says stay short
6/3/13; 10:08 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37
6/3/13; 10:02 AM EST = +20; signal line is +37
6/3/13; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +38
6/3/13; 9:31 AM EST = +20; signal line is +39
6/2/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +36; signal line is +40
5/31/13; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +41
5/28/13; 10:00 AM EST = +33; signal line is +42
5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +42
5/23/13; 9:45 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44
5/23/13; 9:30 AM EST = +0; signal line is +44
5/22/13; 3:58 PM EST = +48; signal line is +46 but algorithm says stay short
5/22/13; 2:12 PM EST = +32; signal line is +46; go short 1661; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +16.5%)(Keybot this trade = +5.9%; Keybot for 2013 = +6.8%)(Actual this trade = +5.0%; Actual for 2013 = +5.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is bearish but is all set to flip long at the opening bell. If UTIL drops under 480.83 that would change the picture and allow the bears to maintain control. If there is a gap up open, Keybot may delay the potential move to the long side to 11 AM. S&P futures are +9 so it is looking good for a flip to the long side.

6/9/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/7/13; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm says stay short
6/5/13; 2:26 PM EST = +36; signal line is +31 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the Friday session. The algo wants to flip to the long side at the opening bell today. The two key market influences right now are utilities and copper. Watch UTIL 480.83 and 477.91. In addition, UTIL 481.39 is important at the closing bell at 4 PM EST today as well as all next week. UTIL is above 480.83 and 477.91 so this creates the bullishness in markets yesterday afternoon and perhaps today. The bears need to push UTIL lower immediately or Keybot will flip long. Watch JJC 41.38. Price is below so this helps the bears create market negativity. If the bulls move JJC above 41.38, it is smooth sailing higher with a recovery rally on tap.

For the SPX closing at the highs at 1622.56, the bulls only need to see a smidge of positivity in the futures ahead of the opening bell and Keybot should flip long. If there is a large gap up at the open of 10 to 12 SPX points or more, Keybot may delay flipping long until around 11 AM EST. The bears need to push under 1599 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1600-1621 is sideways action today. A pre-scheduled number prints ahead of the opening bell. Updates will be provided this morning but from mid-morning on, the updates will likely wait until the weekend.

6/7/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/5/13; 2:26 PM EST = +36; signal line is +31 but algorithm says stay short
6/5/13; 1:06 PM EST = +20; signal line is +31

Thursday, June 6, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo wants to flip long.  Other internal programming rules are not yet aligned to trigger the move.  One key item that needs to occur is the SPX needs to move above 1629 today to trigger the long side. SPX is now printing 1615. Utilities recovered with UTIL at 481.11 above both the 477.91 and 480.83 critical levels. If UTIL falls under 480.83, the upside will evaporate and the selling will increase into the closing bell. If UTIL remains elevated above 480.83, the broad indexes will float higher into the close. The imminent turn notation is added to the title line above since the bulls are trying to reverse the markets and will succeed if they can print SPX +1629 today.

6/7/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/5/13; 2:26 PM EST = +36; signal line is +31 but algorithm says stay short
6/5/13; 1:06 PM EST = +20; signal line is +31
6/5/13; 12:18 PM EST = +4; signal line is +32
6/5/13; 9:34 AM EST = +20; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Thursday session is underway. At the start, copper drops with JJC dropping under the important 41.40 bull-bear line but at the same time, UTIL recovers back above 477.91 helping the bulls.  Markets meander sideways with an  upward bias. The bears are driving the bus and have no worries today unless the SPX moves into the high 1620's. Watch UTIL 477.91 and 480.83.

6/7/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/5/13; 9:34 AM EST = +20; signal line is +33
6/5/13; 9:30 AM EST = +4; signal line is +34
6/4/13; 11:21 AM EST = +20; signal line is +35

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish. The drama with UTIL 477.91 will continue. The bulls need to move UTIL above 477.91 to stop the market slide south.  Also, the bulls can develop strength if the GTX moves above 4760.  The bears need to keep UTIL under 477.91 and the market negativity continues. Also, the bears can develop more downside juice if RTH drops under 51.00 and/or JJC drops under 41.40. If UTIL moves above 477.91 and the SPX moves above 1629, Keybot will likely flip to the long side.

For the SPX starting at 1609, the bears only need two negative points, to push under 1607, and the downside will open wide with price printing 1600 in short order. The bulls need to move above 1629 to accelerate the upside, a formidable task of 20 handles higher, but not impossible, especially in these wild and volatile markets. A move through 1608-1628 is sideways action. Markets remain erratic and unstable. UTIL 477.91 will dictate if the broad indexes are moving higher or lower.

6/7/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/4/13; 11:21 AM EST = +20; signal line is +35
6/4/13; 10:58 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short in these wild and erratic markets.  The algo number and signal line keep wrestling for position. UTIL 477.91 opens the trap door for equities and the most important parameter to watch today.  So far, the UTIL 477.91 failure creates -18 SPX points today. Bears remain in the drivers seat. Bulls can wrestle back control if they move UTIL above 477.91. Keybot will need to see SPX 1647 today to want to flip long and considering the sell off so far, the imminent turn notation is removed for now. Markets will pivot on the Beige Book at 2 PM one and one-half hour from now.

6/7/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/4/13; 11:21 AM EST = +20; signal line is +35
6/4/13; 10:58 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37
6/4/13; 9:31 AM EST = +20; signal line is +37
6/4/13; 9:30 AM EST = +36; signal line is +38
6/4/13; 3:27 PM EST = +52; signal line is +38 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish moving into the Wednesday session. The algo wants to flip to the long side as shown by the higher algo number but internal programming rules will not trigger the move as yet. If the SPX touches 1647 today and stays above, Keybot will likely flip long. The printout below shows the oscillating drama yesterday. It appeared a no-brainer that Keybot would flip long but that was not the case due to the weakness in utilities. UTIL 480.83 will dictate market direction today. If UTIL stays above 480.83, the bulls will keep pushing markets higher aiming for SPX 1647. If UTIL 480.83 fails, the broad indexes are in serious trouble and market selling will increase.  The UTIL 477.91 remains as a trap-door for markets all this week.  If UTIL 477.91 fails, the markets will drop into a mini free-fall with the SPX likely losing from 10 to 20 handles quickly.

For the SPX today starting at 1631, the bulls need to touch the 1647 handle and it will be off to the races higher. The sturdy 1649-1650 resistance will likely give way in quick order and the SPX will move up into the 1650's.  The bears need to push under 1624 today to accelerate the downside which will likely tag 1618 in short order. A move through 1625-1646 is sideways action today. In a nutshell, UTIL 480.83 provides the market answer today. Markets remain erratic and very unstable and need to make an up or down decision.

6/9/13; 7:00 PM EST =
6/7/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/4/13; 3:27 PM EST = +52; signal line is +38 but algorithm says stay short
6/4/13; 1:28 PM EST = +36; signal line is +38
6/4/13; 12:41 PM EST = +52; signal line is +38 but algorithm says stay short
6/4/13; 12:04 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37
6/4/13; 9:37 AM EST = +52; signal line is +38 but algorithm says stay short
6/3/13; 10:08 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short today. UTIL is fighting at the 480.85 level. Whichever way UTIL moves in relation to the 480.85 is the direction the markets will move. UTIL 477.91 remains a level where serious market trouble occurs. Bulls need to keep UTIL above 480.85. The SPX never made it up over the HOD earlier at 1646.53.

6/7/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/4/13; 1:28 PM EST = +36; signal line is +38
6/4/13; 12:41 PM EST = +52; signal line is +38 but algorithm says stay short
6/4/13; 12:04 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37
6/4/13; 9:37 AM EST = +52; signal line is +38 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo wants to flip to the long side. The algo number is above the signal line but other internal programming rules are preventing the move to the bull side, for now. JJC is above 41.38 now bullish. UTIL remains above 480.80, bullish.  If the SPX prints above 1646 and holds it a few minutes, Keybot should flip long.

6/7/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/4/13; 9:37 AM EST = +52; signal line is +38 but algorithm says stay short
6/3/13; 10:08 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish heading into the Tuesday session. The bears had the markets on a silver platter yesterday, creating a failure in utilities, but the bulls managed to recover sending utilities higher and saving the day. Utilities (UTIL) and copper (JJC) remain key and will dictate market direction today. Watch UTIL 480.80 and 477.91. If UTIL falls under 480.80, markets will noticeably weaken, if 477.91 fails, markets will be moving far lower. Watch JJC 41.38 with price only pennies away. If JJC 41.38 and higher prints today, the bulls will be running markets higher.  If JJC moves above 41.38, and the SPX moves above 1641, it is likely that Keybot will flip to the long side, hence the imminent turn signal is placed in the title line.

For the SPX today starting at 1640, closing at the highs, the bulls only need to touch the 1641 handle and it will be off to the races higher with a move to test 1649-1650 resistance. The bears need to push under 1623 to regain their mojo. A move through 1624-1640 is sideways action today. The S&P futures are flat at this writing about 3 1/2 hours before the U.S. open with copper firmly higher.

6/7/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/3/13; 10:08 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37
6/3/13; 10:02 AM EST = +20; signal line is +37

Monday, June 3, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls strongly bounce utilities. UTIL now moving up towards 485 in a heartbeat to save the day.  The caution flag returns. Watch JJC 41.40, VIX 13.30 and UTIL 480.80 and 477.91 (this level is big trouble for markets but the bulls held the line today). The algo number and signal line are now only one point difference illustrating the intense bull-bear struggle ongoing in the markets.

6/7/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/3/13; 10:08 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37
6/3/13; 10:02 AM EST = +20; signal line is +37
6/3/13; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +38

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish as the algo prints two numbers directly after the opening bell. Watch UTIL 477.91, the bulls are losing their grasp, can they hold on? The UTIL 477.91 trap-door is starting to open. For now, the caution flag is removed. The bears are driving the bus.

6/7/13; 9:00 AM EST =
6/3/13; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +38
6/3/13; 9:31 AM EST = +20; signal line is +39
6/2/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +36; signal line is +40