STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market drama continues. The quant prints 4 numbers yesterday and 2 today and the battle continues at the NYA 19383 line in the sand. The bulls pushed price above this critical metric and were throwing confetti and singing songs but alas, the party turns ugly and NYA loses 19383 falling on its sword. Inside your ugly, ugly like me. Staind. There is likely more drama ahead with NYA 19383 since it is a major demarcation between a cyclical bull and cyclical bear market.

The bulls are in control but the algo number is only a measly 6 points above the signal line. That is nothing to write home about but the bulls are holding the ball and still running downfield. King Donnie pumped the chips so the SOX 4340 bull/bear resistance line was taken out as if it was not even there. The chip fun was sniffed out yesterday after munchtime well before the retail crowd knew what was going on. Welcome to corrupt Wall Street land of crony capitalism.

The bulls obviously need NYA above 19383 to prove that they have the strength to take stocks higher. Bulls will also send equities higher if VIX falls below 22.48 and this may occur overnight. If NYA moves above 19383, and VIX below 22.48, stocks will fly to the stratosphere. Shorts will panic creating an explosion higher in the stock market. If these two parameters do not turn bullish, however, the bulls got buptkis. Stocks will roll over and die. No More Mr Nice Guy.

The bears need to keep NYA below 19383 to prove that they maintain control of the cyclical bear market since March. In addition, bears need weaker chips, retail stocks and banks. King Donnie giveth and he often taketh away so he may say the opposite about chips tomorrow sinking the semiconductors. Bears need SOX below 4340 or XRT below 69.82 to take control of the stock market. If either metric flips short, the quant will be in position to flip to the short side, and likely will if the SPX falls below 5635 trending lower.

Watch NYA 19383, VIX 21.80, SOX 4340, and XRT 69.82. Nothing Else Matters.

5/11/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/8/25; 3:51 PM EST = -17; signal line is -23
5/8/25; 11:39 AM EST = -3; signal line is -24
5/7/25; 3:47 PM EST = -17; signal line is -26
5/7/25; 1:32 PM EST = -33; signal line is -28 but algorithm remains long
5/7/25; 1:08 PM EST = -17; signal line is -28
5/7/25; 9:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long
5/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = -33; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long