STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long.  The algo was active today printing six numbers as bullish triggers were hit one after another.The financials and semiconductors joined the bull camp in the final hour and caused a massive bull orgy melt-up for the broad markets into the close. The bulls could do no wrong today, everything went the bull's way.  The bulls are now fueled by six sectors; utes, retail, volatility, copper, semi's and financials. Watch the commodities, CRB 322 level and SPX 1281 for further bull fuel. Otherwise, time will be required to digest such a huge bull move today. The algo is now 59 points above the signal line, uber bullish.

12/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +22; signal line is -37

11/30/11; 3:36 PM EST = +22; signal line is -40

11/30/11; 3:11 PM EST = +6; signal line is -42

11/30/11; 1:14 PM EST = -10; signal line is -44

11/30/11; 12:54 PM EST = +6; signal line is -44

11/30/11; 9:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -45

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST = -26; signal line is -45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is on the bull train. Copper remains elevated and for a little while the semiconductors ventured into the bull camp as well. Bulls are cruising now. SOX is now printing 369.68, if you see 370.50 the broad markets will run significantly higher into the close. XLF is printing 12.65, another dime higher and the upside bull party will get out of control with big market upside.

12/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/30/11; 1:14 PM EST = -10; signal line is -44

11/30/11; 12:54 PM EST = +6; signal line is -44

11/30/11; 9:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -45

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST = -26; signal line is -45

11/28/11; 3:57 PM EST = -26; signal line is -45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant motors along on the long side. Copper has joined the bull camp today adding to the upside market thrust.  As long as JJC stays elevated above 45.25, the bullish market strength and buoyancy will continue.  The bullish markets are now supported by four pillars of strength; utes, retail, lower volatilty and copper.

For a further gauge of market strength, watch SOX 370.50, now at 369.  If this level is touched, more bullish market upside will occur. Watch CRB 322 level, now at 313. If 322 is achieved, more bullish market upside will occur.  Watch XLF 12.75 level, now at 12.63.  If 12.75 is achieved, only 12 pennies away, more bullish market upside will occur. The caution flag is taken down, bulls are cruising currently.

12/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/30/11; 9:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -45

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST = -26; signal line is -45

11/28/11; 3:57 PM EST = -26; signal line is -45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant continues along on the bullish side. The algo only printed the pre-scheduled number yesterday, the remainder of the day the market bulls were maintaining market control. Futures are currently flat for the Wednesday open but it's early and economic data will hit today effecting markets.

Continue to focus on retail, RTH, and volatility, VIX, to determine market direction.  As long as RTH stays above 108.40, now at 109.97 to start the session, the markets will remain buoyant. As long as VIX stays under 32.85, now at 30.64 to start the session, the markets will remain buoyant. If one violates their respective level, that ushers in market bearishness and selling.  If both lose the levels shown, the bears will be pushing strongly to the downside. For now, the market bulls remain in control.

12/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST = -26; signal line is -45

11/28/11; 3:57 PM EST = -26; signal line is -45

11/28/11; 3:54 PM EST = -40; signal line is -44

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is motoring along on the long side today. RTH is elevated and VIX is lower so the bulls are running.  SPX moved above 1197 so the upside opened up, now printing 1200. SPX offers resistance above at 1204 and 1210.

The pre-scheduled number printed without any changes. For now the market bulls are comfortably moving higher. Stay alert, however, in these unstable markets.

12/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST = -26; signal line is -45

11/28/11; 3:57 PM EST = -26; signal line is -45

11/28/11; 3:54 PM EST = -40; signal line is -44

11/28/11; 3:45 PM EST = -56; signal line is -43 but algorithm says stay long

11/28/11; 3:20 PM EST = -40; signal line is -41

11/28/11; 3:06 PM EST = -56; signal line is -41 but algorithm says stay long

11/28/11; 10:50 AM EST = -40; signal line is -39 but algorithm says stay long

11/28/11; 9:52 AM EST = -26; signal line is -38; go long 1194; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-5.1%)(Keybot this trade=+4.3%; Keybot for 2011=+28.3%)(Actual this trade via RWM=+4.1%; Actual for 2011=+32.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after an active day for the algo.  Nine numbers printed today including the 9:52 AM print that flipped Keybot from short to long.  The afternoon was a retail sector struggle dancing on each side of RTH 108.40 before deciding to finish above. Volatility fell into the close as well adding to the bull win today.

For Tuesday, watch RTH 108.40 and VIX 32.85 to determine market direction, currently both are market bullish. For the SPX, the market bulls need to push up above 1197 and if so, the bull party will gain momo along with the higher RTH and lower VIX.  The market bears will try to prevent the SPX from moving above 1197 and at the same time move the RTH lower and volatility higher. Note that Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM tomorrow and that time is a potential market pivot point.

12/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/28/11; 3:57 PM EST = -26; signal line is -45

11/28/11; 3:54 PM EST = -40; signal line is -44

11/28/11; 3:45 PM EST = -56; signal line is -43 but algorithm says stay long

11/28/11; 3:20 PM EST = -40; signal line is -41

11/28/11; 3:06 PM EST = -56; signal line is -41 but algorithm says stay long

11/28/11; 10:50 AM EST = -40; signal line is -39 but algorithm says stay long

11/28/11; 9:52 AM EST = -26; signal line is -38; go long 1194; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-5.1%)(Keybot this trade=+4.3%; Keybot for 2011=+28.3%)(Actual this trade via RWM=+4.1%; Actual for 2011=+32.3%)

11/28/11; 9:39 AM EST = -26; signal line is -38 but algorithm says stay short

11/28/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -38

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST = -56; signal line is -37

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long although volatility is creeping upwards.

12/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/28/11; 10:50 AM EST = -40; signal line is -39 but algorithm says stay long

11/28/11; 9:52 AM EST = -26; signal line is -38; go long 1194; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-5.1%)(Keybot this trade=+4.3%; Keybot for 2011=+28.3%)(Actual this trade via RWM=+4.1%; Actual for 2011=+32.3%)

11/28/11; 9:39 AM EST = -26; signal line is -38 but algorithm says stay short

11/28/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -38

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST = -56; signal line is -37

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns -- Bullish from SPX 1194

11/28/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:52 AM at SPX 1194; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 5.1%; Keybot algo is up 28.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 32.3%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw today or tomorrow.
11/15/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 11:27 AM at SPX 1247; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 0.9%; Keybot algo is up 24.0%; Keybot actual trading is up 28.2%. Markets highly indecisive currently so another whipsaw is in play today or tomorrow. The bull-bear battle continues.
11/11/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM at SPX 1251; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 0.6%; Keybot algo is up 24.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 28.9%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw today or Monday. The three algo turns in one week, whipsaw-gone-wild, are unprecedented, this behavior never before seen by the quant. The six turns in the last 18 days is remarkable. This behavior highlights the indecision in the markets and the intense bull-bear battle occurring. High volatility gives high point swings each day and intraday. Hold on tight, this is not finished yet.
11/9/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:30 AM at SPX 1260; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 0.2%; Keybot algo is up 23.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 29.9%. The whipsaw occurrred so the algo was quick to return to the short side. Watch for a whipsaw back again, anything is possible in these markets. Watch semi's tomorrow.
11/8/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM at SPX 1261; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 0.2%; Keybot algo is up 23.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 32.0%. The algorithm has been giving up some ground lately in these jumpy markets but it has a nice nest egg buillt up for the year. Watch for a whipsaw today or tomorrow.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side. The bulls have underlying strength with the utes remaining elevated, SPX:VIX leaping back above 35, now at 37.56, and the VIX dropping under 32. In addition, retail moved into the bull camp again.  RTH is at 109.24, handily above the 108.50 level the algo identifies as a line between market bulls and market bears.

Thus, the market bulls have things going their way today, supported by utes, retail and lower volatility. But, caution is warranted. Keybot shot upwards without even having the chance to put out the caution flag, the quant went from short to long in quick order as the indicators above favored the bulls from the start today.

The last trade gained about 4%, a nice return considering the prior whipsaw indecision that the indexes experienced during early November.  As always, stay on guard for a whipsaw, either today or tomorrow.  Use VIX 32, SPX:VIX 35 and RTH 108.50 as your guide for market strength and direction.

12/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/28/11; 9:52 AM EST = -26; signal line is -38; go long 1194; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-5.1%)(Keybot this trade=+4.3%; Keybot for 2011=+28.3%)(Actual this trade via RWM=+4.1%; Actual for 2011=+32.3%)

11/28/11; 9:39 AM EST = -26; signal line is -38 but algorithm says stay short

11/28/11; 9:30 AM EST = -40; signal line is -38

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST = -56; signal line is -37

11/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -35

11/23/11; 3:59 PM EST = -72; signal line is -33

11/23/11; 3:06 PM EST = -56; signal line is -30

11/23/11; 2:10 PM EST = -72; signal line is -28

11/23/11; 11:52 AM EST = -56; signal line is -27

11/23/11; 11:09 AM EST = -72; signal line is -25

11/23/11; 10:00 AM EST = -56; signal line is -23

11/23/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -23

11/22/11; 12:09 PM EST = -42; signal line is -21

11/22/11; 10:12 AM EST = -56; signal line is -20

11/22/11; 9:54 AM EST = -42; signal line is -19

11/21/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -18

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -16

11/17/11; 12:12 PM EST = -40; signal line is -14

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -13

11/16/11; 3:11 PM EST = -24; signal line is -12

11/16/11; 1:26 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short

11/16/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -12

11/15/11; 3:58 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 1:36 PM EST = +6; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 12:35 PM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 11:27 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9; go short 1247; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-0.9%)(Keybot this trade=-0.3%; Keybot for 2011=+24.0%)(Actual this trade via SPY=-0.7%; Actual for 2011=+28.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant begins the new week of trading remaining on the short side. The market bulls showed signs of life on Friday morning but petered out by the close. The utilities are critical and are in the bull camp to start the week. UTIL starts the week at 426.01, above the 424.35 level, favoring buoyancy in the broad markets. If UTIL loses 424.35, the selling in the broad markets will significantly increase. Should the market bears push hard this week, if UTIL loses the 417 level, the broad markets will go into free fall. This outcome is not anticipated to occur but the behavior of UTIL will dictate the outcome.

The SPX:VIX ratio is 33.61, under the 35 level, thus, market bearish. If the ratio moves back above 35, that signals the bulls regaining control and markets will move higher. Broad market weakness will continue as long as the ratio stays sub 35.

For the SPX, any amount of red futures overnight tonight will cause strong selling at the open. SPX 1158 and 1155 are important support levels and any rupture verifies continued market weakness. If the bulls want to bounce the indexes, it will show itself by the UTIL staying elevated, SPX:VIX moving above 35 and SPX staying above 1158. SPX 1173 is the magic level for market bulls. If SPX touches 1173, the broad indexes will accelerate upwards.

The market bears remain in control and UTIL and SPX:VIX will dictate market direction. The algo prints out two pre-scheduled numbers this week, one on Tuesday morning and the other Wednesday evening for the EOM. Note that the closer the algo number gets to the signal line number, now 19 points difference, the closer the quant comes to flipping to the long side. For now, Keybot remains comfortably short.

12/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST = -56; signal line is -37

11/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -35

11/23/11; 3:59 PM EST = -72; signal line is -33

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot idled along in the Friday session with no further changes after the opening bell. The utilities sector jumped back into the bullish camp and remain there so it was surprising to see the broad markets drift lower into the close.  The SPX:VIX lost the 35 level at 11:24 AM which ushered in the market weakness ahead of the weekend. Next week will be set up when the Sunday number prints tomorrow. UTIL and SPX:VIX are key.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -35

11/23/11; 3:59 PM EST = -72; signal line is -33

11/23/11; 3:06 PM EST = -56; signal line is -30

11/23/11; 2:10 PM EST = -72; signal line is -28

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short.  The indexes are rallying since the utes recovered slightly; UTIL moving back above 424.34. The SPX:VIX ratio also moved above 35 signaling the all clear for the bulls to increase market buoyancy. The ratio is struggling above and below 35 currently. Thus, continue to watch UTIL and SPX:VIX, they are dictating broad market direction today.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/25/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -35

11/23/11; 3:59 PM EST = -72; signal line is -33

11/23/11; 3:06 PM EST = -56; signal line is -30

11/23/11; 2:10 PM EST = -72; signal line is -28

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short as this Friday shortened-session begins. The algo picks up where Wednesday left off. The utes had collapsed, as well as the SPX:VIX ratio, ushering in the continued market weakness. Very short term, VST, indications hint that a market pop is at hand.

Watch UTIL 424.32, the 50-week MA level. UTIL is now below here which favors market bears. If UTIL pops above 424.32, that will provide measureable market buoyancy. Watch SPX:VIX ratio 35. The ratio is now below here at 34.19 which favors market bears. Over 35 would indicate that the market bulls are running higher.

Despite any pop that may occur in the markets for the VST, only time will tell if Keybot wants to flip to the long side, or not. Since the algo attempts to form as smooth a path as possible thru the entire trading year, the quant could very well remain short from the SPX 1247 entry for some time moving forward. Keybot deals in 0's and 1's so you never know. Watch to see if the algo number can recover from the current very low -72 reading, while at the same time enjoying the sled ride south on the short side.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/23/11; 3:59 PM EST = -72; signal line is -33

11/23/11; 3:06 PM EST = -56; signal line is -30

11/23/11; 2:10 PM EST = -72; signal line is -28

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Very active day today with the algo printing seven numbers.  Market bears are in ful control, utes gave up the ghost today and they were the only pillar supporting the bulls.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/23/11; 3:59 PM EST = -72; signal line is -33

11/23/11; 3:06 PM EST = -56; signal line is -30

11/23/11; 2:10 PM EST = -72; signal line is -28

11/23/11; 11:52 AM EST = -56; signal line is -27

11/23/11; 11:09 AM EST = -72; signal line is -25

11/23/11; 10:00 AM EST = -56; signal line is -23

11/23/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -23

11/22/11; 12:09 PM EST = -42; signal line is -21

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

That did not take long to collapse, one minute after the last post. The utilties gave way.  UTIL lost the 50 week MA and lost it large.  By one point already, UTIL now printing 423.33, this is a major failure and very bearish for markets. Markets should sell off into the close. SPX:VIX is under 35.  All systems go for the bears.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/23/11; 2:10 PM EST = -72; signal line is -28

11/23/11; 11:52 AM EST = -56; signal line is -27

11/23/11; 11:09 AM EST = -72; signal line is -25

11/23/11; 10:00 AM EST = -56; signal line is -23

11/23/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -23

11/22/11; 12:09 PM EST = -42; signal line is -21

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant motors along on the short side. The algo clicked off three numbers today along with the pre-scheduled number at 10 AM. The algo number hits a low at -72 indicating strong bearishness. The VIX shot up thru 32 at the opening bell so you knew a down day was on tap.  The SPX:VIX ratio fell under 35 to increase the selling pressure but the ratio keeps moving above and below unable to make a firm decision.

The utilties sector, the only sector supporting the bull case, ruptured today when UTIL lost its 50 week MA.  This has oscillated above and below as well unable to make a decision. Thus UTIL and SPX:VIX will dictate direction the remainder of the day.

If UTIL stays above the 50 week MA at 424.33, the market bulls will dodge a bullet and be able to pull the indexes back upwards. If UTIL drops under 424.33, the broad market selling will accelerate. UTIL now printing 424.53, only 20 cents above danger.  SPX:VIX ratio is 34.93, thus bear-friendly, but only by 7 cents. If the ratio stays under 35, the bears will drive the markets lower into the close.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/23/11; 11:52 AM EST = -56; signal line is -27

11/23/11; 11:09 AM EST = -72; signal line is -25

11/23/11; 10:00 AM EST = -56; signal line is -23

11/23/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -23

11/22/11; 12:09 PM EST = -42; signal line is -21

11/22/11; 10:12 AM EST = -56; signal line is -20

11/22/11; 9:54 AM EST = -42; signal line is -19

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short.  Volatility, VIX, dropped at lunch time today favoring market buoyancy but climbed back up into the close finishing only pennies away from favoring market bears again.  For Wednesday, at the opening bell, VIX direction will dictate broad market direction. If VIX stays under 32.05, the markets will slide sideways with some upwards buoyancy into Turkey Day. If the VIX pops above 32.05 at the open and moves higher, the bears will spoil the turkey dinner with strong selling in the indexes.

For SPX, 1183 and 1181 held today, there is only air underneath. SPX:VIX ratio is 37.16, two points above the danger line at 35. If the ratio drops under 35 tomorrow, the markets will drop strongly and substantively. If the ratio stays above, markets will float into the holiday. Thus, watch VIX 32.05, SPX 1181 and SPX:VIX 35, these three will tell you what you need to know.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/23/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/22/11; 12:09 PM EST = -42; signal line is -21

11/22/11; 10:12 AM EST = -56; signal line is -20

11/22/11; 9:54 AM EST = -42; signal line is -19

11/21/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -18

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -16

11/17/11; 12:12 PM EST = -40; signal line is -14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

That did not take long.  As the previous message was typed, VIX jumped back up and over 32 indicating that the bears will start to slap the bulls around again. We are back to where things started today, RTH and VIX favors bears, SPX:VIX at 37 favors bulls, thus, we meander sideways. Keybot remains short.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/23/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/22/11; 10:12 AM EST = -56; signal line is -20

11/22/11; 9:54 AM EST = -42; signal line is -19

11/21/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -18

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -16

11/17/11; 12:12 PM EST = -40; signal line is -14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo printed a number minutes ago reflecting the drop in volatility that favors market buoyancy although the markets remain weak.  The quant recalculated the VIX number to be 32.00 now which distinguishes bullish markets from bearish markets. Stay on guard.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/23/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/22/11; 9:54 AM EST = -42; signal line is -19

11/21/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -18

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -16

11/17/11; 12:12 PM EST = -40; signal line is -14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short to start the Tuesday session.  Retail and volatility will gauge bear strength today. If RTH stays below 108.75, now at 108.06, the market bears are fine despite any market pop that may occur.  Likewise, if VIX stays above 31.50, now at 32.91, the market bears are fine.

SPX:VIX ratio at 36.25 is supporting the market bulls. The ratio fell under 35 yesterday which ushered in market weakness but at about 2 PM EST popped above 35 signaling a recovery in the markets which occurred. Thus, market bears have no momo unless they can push the ratio under 35. Markets will recover with the ratio above 35.

Utilities are the only sector that is supporting the market bulls currently, as measured by the algo.  UTIL is at 436.38. If UTIL loses the 425 level that signals broad markets that will be dropping rapidly.  UTIL is above 425 by over ten points so the utes are continuing to provide market support. The broad market move down is suspect since the utes will typically lead or at least be conicdental with the broader indexes if the move down has long staying power, this is not the case currently.

In a nutshell, to keep it simple, watch RTH 108.75, VIX 31.50 and SPX:VIX 35 to determine broad market direction today.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/23/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/21/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -18

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -16

11/17/11; 12:12 PM EST = -40; signal line is -14

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -13

11/16/11; 3:11 PM EST = -24; signal line is -12

11/16/11; 1:26 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short

11/16/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -12

11/15/11; 3:58 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 1:36 PM EST = +6; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 12:35 PM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 11:27 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9; go short 1247; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-0.9%)(Keybot this trade=-0.3%; Keybot for 2011=+24.0%)(Actual this trade via SPY=-0.7%; Actual for 2011=+28.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short, the algo number dropping further at the opening bell this morning. The retail sector failed today. As you watched RTH, you saw the immediate drop under 108.75 that gave the broad market move down some street cred.  The SPX:VIX ratio also fell under 35 at the opening bell so the bears came to play today.

At 2:10 PM, a short while ago, the SPX:VIX ratio popped back above 35 so the indexes are moderating currently as the bulls fight back. SPX sees strong support at 1191 and 1183. This is the lowest number for Keybot, -56, since 10/6/11, about six weeks ago.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/23/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/21/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -18

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -16

11/17/11; 12:12 PM EST = -40; signal line is -14

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -13

11/16/11; 3:11 PM EST = -24; signal line is -12

11/16/11; 1:26 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short

11/16/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -12

11/15/11; 3:58 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 1:36 PM EST = +6; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 12:35 PM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 11:27 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9; go short 1247; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-0.9%)(Keybot this trade=-0.3%; Keybot for 2011=+24.0%)(Actual this trade via SPY=-0.7%; Actual for 2011=+28.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short to start the new trading week. The pre-scheduled number for Friday was moved forward and will print on Wednesday instead. Today's Sunday number results in the same algo number but the signal line moved lower two points. To gauge broad market direction tomorrow, watch volatility, semiconductors, retail, SPX:VIX and the SPX. For volatility, the market bears are in and will stay in control if the VIX remains above 31.25, now at 32.00.  For semiconductors, that broke down late last week causing an additional slide in the indexes, if the SOX remains under 376.65, now at 371.25, the market bears will keep the indexes weak.

For retail, RTH, the market bears will try to push under 108.75.  RTH is now at 109.78, a point above favoring market bulls.  The SPX:VIX ratio is at 38 favoring market bulls but if the ratio falls under 35 after the opening bell, a large down day is on tap for the broad markets.  Lastly, watch SPX  1224, 1211 and 1210.  Market bulls need to touch 1224 to put an end to the selling. Market bears need to touch a 1211 handle and weakness will accelerate in the markets. 1210 is strong longer term support and if that fails, the markets are in big trouble. First test will be 1204 then more than likely a move to test support lower at 1198.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/23/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -16

11/17/11; 12:12 PM EST = -40; signal line is -14

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -13

11/16/11; 3:11 PM EST = -24; signal line is -12

11/16/11; 1:26 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short

11/16/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -12

11/15/11; 3:58 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 1:36 PM EST = +6; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 12:35 PM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 11:27 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9; go short 1247; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-0.9%)(Keybot this trade=-0.3%; Keybot for 2011=+24.0%)(Actual this trade via SPY=-0.7%; Actual for 2011=+28.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant motored along in the Friday session remaining short. The algo did not click off any numbers during the relatively calm day compared to recent action.  The semiconductors did not stage a come back so the bulls are wounded. The bears will try to attack the retail sector next, thus SOX and RTH are key to watch next week.  SPX:VIX ratio stayed above 35 so that prevented serious downside from occurring. Looks like both sides want to ponder the situation this weekend.  SPX is now moving thru 1210-1225. The break from this range is important. Next week will be set up after Sunday's pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 12:12 PM EST = -40; signal line is -14

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -13

11/16/11; 3:11 PM EST = -24; signal line is -12

11/16/11; 1:26 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short

11/16/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -12

11/15/11; 3:58 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 1:36 PM EST = +6; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 12:35 PM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 11:27 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9; go short 1247; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-0.9%)(Keybot this trade=-0.3%; Keybot for 2011=+24.0%)(Actual this trade via SPY=-0.7%; Actual for 2011=+28.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant continues to ride the short side. The semiconductors broke down today. The market bulls now only have two legs to stand on; utilities and retail.  The SOX collapsed at lunch time providing ample time to signal another leg down for the broad markets. Thus, over the last couple days, volatility, financials and now semi's have joined the bear camp.

SPX:VIX ratio fell thru 35 at 12:30 PM so that was further evidence of trouble in paradise. Shananigans in the final minute pushed the SPX:VIX back above 35, so watch this closely tomorrow.  If SPX:VIX ratio falls back under 35 a large down day will be on tap again. If SPX:VIX stays above 35, the market bulls are fighting back and stopping the bleeding. SOX will dictate market direction; watch 377.50, now at 374.35, about three bucks under.  If SOX regains 377.50, the broad markets will recover and stage a bounce back rally. If SOX stays under 377.50, markets will remain weak.

For the SPX, starting at 1216, if the market bears can move under 1210 strong support, the selling should accelerate to the downside.  The algo number is at -40 well under the signal line so the caution flag can be set aside for now.  Markets remain unstable and subject to quick moves, up or down.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 12:12 PM EST = -40; signal line is -14

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -13

11/16/11; 3:11 PM EST = -24; signal line is -12

11/16/11; 1:26 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short

11/16/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -12

11/15/11; 3:58 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 1:36 PM EST = +6; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 12:35 PM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 11:27 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9; go short 1247; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-0.9%)(Keybot this trade=-0.3%; Keybot for 2011=+24.0%)(Actual this trade via SPY=-0.7%; Actual for 2011=+28.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the Thursday session. The pre-scheduled print increased the signal line number by one tick.  The three sectors favoring bulls are utes, retail and semi's.  Thus, watch RTH, the 109 level. RTH is two points above but should the 109 fail, the broad markets will take a large leg down.

The market bears need to keep the XLF under 13 and the VIX over 31.25 which appears to be on tap at least in the early going.  Use the SPX:VIX ratio as a guide today.  If the 35 level is lost, that will usher in a large selling day today. If the ratio holds 35, then the bulls are doing okay.

For the SPX, watch 1235.67.  If this fails then the broad markets should drop several more handles in short order. Caution is warranted, markets remain unstable.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =

11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -13

11/16/11; 3:11 PM EST = -24; signal line is -12

11/16/11; 1:26 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short

11/16/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -12

11/15/11; 3:58 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 1:36 PM EST = +6; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 12:35 PM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short

11/15/11; 11:27 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9; go short 1247; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-0.9%)(Keybot this trade=-0.3%; Keybot for 2011=+24.0%)(Actual this trade via SPY=-0.7%; Actual for 2011=+28.2%)