STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the last trading day of the year is set to begin.  The algo is idling along and has not printed a number since Tuesday afternoon.  The XLF remains above 12.80 so this keeps broad markets buoyant.  The semiconductors, SOX, are under 368.60 keeping the bears happy and preventing any substantial broad market move up. The retail sector, RTH, requires watching moving forward.  RTH is now at 112.48 firmly supporting the market bulls, but the negative divergence in place points to a downfall for retail as 2012 begins.

For now, XLF and SOX dictate broad market direction.  The bears will not make any headway down unless XLF fails at 12.80.  The bulls will not make any headway up unless the SOX moves above 368.60.  Whichever of these two flinches first will tell you the path of the broad markets.

For the SPX today, starting at 1263, if the market bulls can push higher by only a half a buck, and get up and over 1263.50, the day will go the bulls way and the broad indexes will finish on an up note.  The market bears need to take back yesterday's gains to regain momo which is a formidable task. The bulls, however, managed to retrace Wednesday's down move yesterday. Markets will float along sideways to end the year unless the XLF or SOX make a committment.  The SPX will probably dance around the starting year number of 1258 today as the last trading day plays out and determines whether the S&P finishes positive or negative on the year.

Keybot enjoys another highly successful year, navigating a prosperous path thru the 2011 mess.  The model will be closed out for 2011 after today's session and the results tallied for the record books.  The 2012 tallies will begin when trading starts for the new year on Tuesday, 1/2/12. Keybot wishes all a Happy and Healthy New Year, and a prosperous one as well.  With Keybot at the helm the prosperous part appears highly likely. Stay on guard. Markets remain unstable.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 3:37 PM EST = -10; signal line is -21

12/27/11; 11:09 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

12/27/11; 10:52 AM EST = -10; signal line is -22

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as broad indexes languished all day long.  The algo idled along calmly all day without printing any numbers. The Italy bond auctions in the morning have traders on edge and prone to hit the sell button today. The SOX collpased at the open and a run up to 368.60 was never considered. This semiconductor weakness fueled the Nasdaq downside and overall market weakness.

Since semi's have now given up the ghost, retail, RTH, and financials, XLF, are now in the algorithm's focus.  The RTH is two points above danger at 110-ish but the XLF is at 12.86 only six pennies above danger at 12.80. If the XLF drops under 12.80, all Hades will break loose, the broad markets will tumble lower.  The market bulls will try to prevent the loss of XLF 12.80 with all their might. XLF will determine the fate of the markets when the bell rings to begin the Thursday session.

For the SPX, starting at 1250, the bears have the wind at their backs since the close was near the lows.  If the market bears can push the SPX under 1248.50, the downside selling will accelerate. The market bulls need to retrace today's tumble to regain the momo but since that is a fomidable task, the bulls will simply fight to stop from losing XLF 12.80.  A move thru SPX 1250-1264 is sideways action.

SPX support exists at 1249, that held today, and 1247.  A breach of 1247 to the downside likely correlates to the XLF losing the 12.80 level and serious selling entering the broad markets, and, most importantly, Keybot probably flipping to the short side. XLF 12.80 is the key tomorrow, it will determine broad market direction.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 3:37 PM EST = -10; signal line is -21

12/27/11; 11:09 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

12/27/11; 10:52 AM EST = -10; signal line is -22

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as semiconductors weakened into the close.  The SOX dropped under 368.60 so the markets faded into the bell. Watch SOX 368.60 again tomorrow.  If markets weaken further, watch XLF 12.82 level again, tonight the XLF closed at 13.07.

For the SPX in the Wednesday session, starting at 1265.43, the market bears need to push lower three points to 1262 and the selling will accelerate.  The SPX would venture down to the starting year number at 1258.  The market bulls need to push the SPX up to touch 1270, if so, the upside will accelerate.  A move thru 1263-1268 is sideways action. The broad markets can not head higher without the SOX moving above 368.60.

Keybot had an active start to the holiday-shortened trading week kicking off five numbers today, one that was pre-scheduled. The algo number is only 11 ticks away from the signal line so caution is required.  Financials, XLF, require close watching moving forward.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 3:37 PM EST = -10; signal line is -21

12/27/11; 11:09 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

12/27/11; 10:52 AM EST = -10; signal line is -22

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

12/27/11; 9:47 AM EST = +6; signal line is -20

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -20

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algo clicked off two more numbers before lunch time today.  The semiconductors, SOX, fell under the quant's key number of 368.60 ushering in the broad market weakness but then moved back above before lunch time sending the markets back up.  SOX is now printing 370.88 over two points above danger so the bulls are on cruise control and the SPX floats upward.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 11:09 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

12/27/11; 10:52 AM EST = -10; signal line is -22

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

12/27/11; 9:47 AM EST = +6; signal line is -20

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/21/11; 2:36 PM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/21/11; 9:35 AM EST = -26; signal line is -19 but algorithm says stay long

12/20/11; 2:49 PM EST = -10; signal line is -17; go long 1240; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.4%)(Keybot this trade=-0.5%; Keybot for 2011=+31.2%)(Actual this trade via RWM=-1.5%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. SOX provides the drama as expected.  SOX collapsed from the algo's key 368.60 level at the open ushering in broad market weakness. Fifteen minutes after the open the bear party was over as the SOX went above 368.60 so the bulls threw confetti.  Broad markets will remain elevated today as long as the SOX remains above 368.60.  The SPX punched up and over the 50-week MA at 1267.81 so see if this can hold as support or if price simply falls back thru. Today is very simple, watch SOX 368.60.  SOX is now 369.17, bullish, thus the markets will remain buoyant.  Market bears have no hope unless the SOX prints sub 368.60.  If the bullishness continues and the semi's remain bullish, copper will be the next sector to monitor. The bulls are in control but it remains prudent to leave the caution flag out.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21

12/27/11; 9:47 AM EST = +6; signal line is -20

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/21/11; 2:36 PM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/21/11; 9:35 AM EST = -26; signal line is -19 but algorithm says stay long

12/20/11; 2:49 PM EST = -10; signal line is -17; go long 1240; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.4%)(Keybot this trade=-0.5%; Keybot for 2011=+31.2%)(Actual this trade via RWM=-1.5%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long; the algorithm is idling flat on the weekend as usual.  The Sunday number results in no changes. Trading begins again on Tuesday.  The markets are closed tomorrow to observe the Christmas Day holiday today. The high drama on Friday revolved around the semiconductor sector and that will be front and center when the bell rings Tuesday morning. The SOX, now at 368.60, is sitting directly on top of the algo's level of interest, the bull-bear line, where the move up or down will take the broad markets in the same direction.

The utilities moved up last week in a wild bullish euphoria. For the new trading week, watch UTIL 439.29. The broad markets will be in serious trouble if this level is lost.  UTIL gained 4% last week to close at a nose-bleed 462.94. The recent action had price moving across the low 440's, extremely close to the algo's level of danger.  That makes the upside explosion very interesting; the market makers had to push the utes higher to get away from the 439 and achieved a 20 point barrier for now.

Utes, retail, financials, and the lower volatility are the four pillars of strength that took the markets up last week.  This week semi's will either join the bulls for a fifth leg of bullish market support, or, move lower ushering in broad market weakness.

The drama with the retail, RTH, and financial, XLF, sectors is not finished as well.  Watch RTH 109.40 and XLF 12.82 levels this week, both comfortably above now and supporting bulls. Commodities and copper remain weak, as the dollar continues moving up, and will be the next focus should semi's decide to give the markets a bullish week this week.

For the SPX on Tuesday, as the week's trading begins, starting at 1265.33, the bulls are whistling a happy tune since price closed at the highs on Friday. Market bulls have an easy road as long as they keep the futures overnight Monday night on the green side.  If so, the indexes will enjoy a nice post-holiday bump higher, the SPX should immediately test the 1267 resistance and move higher. Thus, the futures are important going into Tuesday's open. If the market bears can muster up the energy to push 10 points lower on Tuesday, downward to lose the 1254 handle, the broad market negativity will return in force.  A move thru 1255-1265 is sideways action. SPX 1281 is very important resistance and is a game-changer for markets if taken out to the upside.

Keybot will print one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning one-half hour after the open so the action can be updated at that time. There are four trading days remaining in 2011.  The Friday closing print will serve as the final EOM, EOQ4 and EOY 2012 numbers with the monthly charts receiving another data point. Keybot had another good year, the results will be tallied and posted and the new tally for 2012 will begin. The caution flag remains out. In a nutshell, for Tuesday's trade in the new week, SOX 368.60 and whether or not the S&P futures are green, or not, will dictate broad market direction as described above. Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah. Happy Holidays.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/21/11; 2:36 PM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/21/11; 9:35 AM EST = -26; signal line is -19 but algorithm says stay long

12/20/11; 2:49 PM EST = -10; signal line is -17; go long 1240; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.4%)(Keybot this trade=-0.5%; Keybot for 2011=+31.2%)(Actual this trade via RWM=-1.5%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long thru the holiday weekend. The robot never ceases to amaze calling out the SOX 368.60 level all day long and at the last minute of the day--the semiconductors close at that exact level. How does Keybot know this stuff in advance? It must be the secret sauce. The algo has not printed a real-time number since Wednesday afternoon, Thursday's number was pre-scheduled.

The semiconductors held the markets in a sideways posture on Friday since the SOX 368.60 was not taken out. The end of day market buoyancy was simply a low volume push. On Tuesday, when trading begins, whichever way the semiconductors move so will the broad markets.

Keybot will print the standard Sunday number tomorrow, on Christmas, so key levels can be discussed for the week ahead after that occurs. The SPX took out the 200-day MA at 1259.19 in Friday's trading and has not yet back tested.  Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah. Happy Holidays.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/21/11; 2:36 PM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/21/11; 9:35 AM EST = -26; signal line is -19 but algorithm says stay long

12/20/11; 2:49 PM EST = -10; signal line is -17; go long 1240; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.4%)(Keybot this trade=-0.5%; Keybot for 2011=+31.2%)(Actual this trade via RWM=-1.5%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long, calmly motoring thru today without printing any numbers thus far today. The algo is fixated on SOX 368.60.  The semi's ran up at the open to come within pennies of this target but failed.  The broad markets cannot achieve further upside unless the semiconductors now jump on board.

The SPX 1255 level was critical this morning so once that was taken out at the bell, price jumped to the starting year number at 1257.64, and 200-day MA at 1259.15, both now offering up strong resistance. The bulls are motoring along currently.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/21/11; 2:36 PM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/21/11; 9:35 AM EST = -26; signal line is -19 but algorithm says stay long

12/20/11; 2:49 PM EST = -10; signal line is -17; go long 1240; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.4%)(Keybot this trade=-0.5%; Keybot for 2011=+31.2%)(Actual this trade via RWM=-1.5%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG - CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The SPX touched 1245 so the upside is running.  XLF is printing 12.99 so the financials are creating strong market buoyancy.  Watch the SOX, semiconductors, now at 361-362.  A move above 368-ish will provide additional market upside thrust.  The expected seasonality for markets to remain buoyant in front of the Christmas holiday appears to be taking hold. For now, the market bulls are in control. The algo printed the pre-scheduled number minutes ago without any changes occurring.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/21/11; 2:36 PM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/21/11; 9:35 AM EST = -26; signal line is -19 but algorithm says stay long

12/20/11; 2:49 PM EST = -10; signal line is -17; go long 1240; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.4%)(Keybot this trade=-0.5%; Keybot for 2011=+31.2%)(Actual this trade via RWM=-1.5%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long.  A whipsaw did not occur today although this morning's action was weak.  The RTH stayed well above 109.40, closing at 112, indicating all day that the market downside would be limited.  This afternoon the financials, XLF, regained the 12.71 level so that signaled another upside bull party.  Keep watching XLF 12.71 to indicate broad market direction, it's supporting the market bulls now closing at 12.79.

For the SPX on Thursday, starting at 1244 with a hanging man candle, if the market bulls can push higher to touch 1245, the buyers will enter in force and another bullish orgy will take place.  Thus, the market bears will try with all their might to keep futures red in the overnight session. The market bears need to push under 1230 to restart the negativity they enjoyed this morning. A move thru 1231-1244 is sideways action. Markets are typically buoyant the two days in front of a three-day holiday weekend.

Keybot prints out a pre-scheduled number in the morning, a half hour after the open, so the market action can be updated at that time. Watch XLF 12.71 and SPX 1245.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/21/11; 2:36 PM EST = -10; signal line is -20

12/21/11; 9:35 AM EST = -26; signal line is -19 but algorithm says stay long

12/20/11; 2:49 PM EST = -10; signal line is -17; go long 1240; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.4%)(Keybot this trade=-0.5%; Keybot for 2011=+31.2%)(Actual this trade via RWM=-1.5%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but the algo clicked off a number after the open wanting to whipsaw back to the short side already.  Other programming rules, however, are holding the quant back for now, so the bullish call remains albeit with a caution flag out.  If the SPX would drop down towards 1227-ish area, that would have potential for Keybot to flip back to the short side. The financials, XLF, failed a few minutes after the open and remain sub 12.70. This is market bearish and causing today's broad market weakness.

The retail sector, RTH, is holding well above the danger level of 109.40, so the market bulls are receiving upwards buoyancy.  The utilities, UTIL, are remaining elevated as well which also helps the markets remain buoyant. The broad markets should exhibit limited downside unless RTH loses the 109.40 level, then significant selling will appear.  If the XLF can regain 12.70 and higher, the broad markets will noticeably recover to the upside.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/21/11; 9:35 AM EST = -26; signal line is -19 but algorithm says stay long

12/20/11; 2:49 PM EST = -10; signal line is -17; go long 1240; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.4%)(Keybot this trade=-0.5%; Keybot for 2011=+31.2%)(Actual this trade via RWM=-1.5%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as of this afternoon. Tomorrow we will find out if the market bull has legs. Financials were the key as the XLF punched up into the 12.70's. The algo is fixated on XLF 12.71. XLF is at 12.72, one measley penny to the bull side which is providing broad market bullilsh support, so you can see how shaky it all is.  Watch XLF 12.71 at the open tomorrow, it will immediately tell the story.

For the SPX for Wednesday, starting at 1241, if the maket bulls can continue the fun and touch the 1243 handle, the large block buyers will enter, shorts will cover, and another upside orgy will occur in the broad markets. The market bears need to drive the SPX all the way back down to 1205 to get the market negativity to return so this is unlikely. Instead, the bears will simply try to halt the market upside move by spanking financials back down, so watch XLF 12.71 closely. Key SPX S/R is 1258, 1252, 1247, 1240, 1235, 1227, 1225 and 1220.

The algo is very active this week printing out nine numbers in two days of trading. Typically, seasonality-wise, Keybot should be idling thru this holiday week with little action. This market behavior shows that the broad indexes are very unstable and require continued close monitoring. The caution flag is out.  Expect the unexpected moving forward.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/20/11; 2:49 PM EST = -10; signal line is -17; go long 1240; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.4%)(Keybot this trade=-0.5%; Keybot for 2011=+31.2%)(Actual this trade via RWM=-1.5%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)

12/20/11; 2:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -17 but algorithm says stay short

12/20/11; 9:30 AM EST = -26; signal line is -16

SPX Daily Chart with Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns -- Bullish from 12/20/11

12/20/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:49 PM at SPX 1240; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 1.4%; Keybot algo is up 31.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.5%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.
12/12/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:25 AM at SPX 1234; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 1.9%; Keybot algo is up 31.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 37.0%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw today or tomorrow.
11/28/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:52 AM at SPX 1194; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 5.1%; Keybot algo is up 28.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 32.3%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw today or tomorrow.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side a short time ago.  Financials, XLF, punched up thru 12.70 giving the broad markets additional upside strength.  The last trade was about one week in duration and resulted in a flat move. Stay alert for a whipsaw since the low holiday volume allows these wild moves. The algo is back on the bull side now.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/20/11; 2:49 PM EST = -10; signal line is -17; go long 1240; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.4%)(Keybot this trade=-0.5%; Keybot for 2011=+31.2%)(Actual this trade via RWM=-1.5%; Actual for 2011=+35.5%)

12/20/11; 2:32 PM EST = -10; signal line is -17 but algorithm says stay short

12/20/11; 9:30 AM EST = -26; signal line is -16

12/20/11; 9:00 AM EST = -42; signal line is -14

12/19/11; 2:59 PM EST = -42; signal line is -12

12/19/11; 2:50 PM EST = -26; signal line is -10

12/19/11; 2:04 PM EST = -42; signal line is -8

12/19/11; 1:43 PM EST = -26; signal line is -6

12/19/11; 1:38 PM EST = -42; signal line is -5

12/18/11; 7:00 PM EST = -26; signal line is -4

12/15/11; 9:30 AM EST = -26; signal line is -3

12/14/11; 2:00 PM EST = -42; signal line is -2

12/14/11; 1:14 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1

12/14/11; 10:08 AM EST = -42; signal line is -1

12/13/11; 2:19 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1

12/13/11; 11:24 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2

12/13/11; 11:05 AM EST = -26; signal line is -4

12/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -5

12/12/11; 10:25 AM EST = -26; signal line is -6; go short 1234; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.9%)(Keybot this trade=+3.4%; Keybot for 2011=+31.7%)(Actual this trade via IWM=+4.7%; Actual for 2011=+37.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short moving up towards the levels where the algo entered short. The retail sector is in the bull camp again with RTH popping large at the open. XLF remains under 12.82, however, keeeping the broad market upside in check. The SPX took out 1224.50 as described in the previous post so the upside ran further, printing the 1230's in short order and now at 1231.  The caution flag is out again since the algo number is now only ten points away from the signal line.  Current expectations, however, would be for the quant to remain bearish but the robot only sees 1's and 0's, so time wiill tell.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/20/11; 9:30 AM EST = -26; signal line is -16

12/20/11; 9:00 AM EST = -42; signal line is -14

12/19/11; 2:59 PM EST = -42; signal line is -12

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the algorithm prints out the pre-scheduled number for this morning. No change to the algo number itself but the signal line moved two ticks lower. The retail sector turned bearish yesterday. The only two sectors supporting bulls are the utilities and the lower volatility. That said, futures are up large currently, ready to take back yesterday's losses. Thus, watch RTH 109.60 at the open. A move above would place retail back on the bullish side and help elevate the broad markets.

Financials collapsed yesterday, BAC lost the five dollar level, so the XLF limits any significant market upside. XLF, now at 12.26, would need to move up above 12.82 to strengthen the broad markets and bring a Santa Claus rally to town; that appears difficult.

For the SPX for Tuesday, starting at 1205, the market bears only need to push a couple points lower thru the 1202-1204 support level and the 1190's will be printing. The futures, however, currently have a different idea in mind. The spoo's want to see about 15 handles so a test back up to the 1220 resistance may be on tap. The market bulls will have to strengthen the financials, and push the SPX up over 1224.50 today, if so, the bulls will run much higher and Santa is on his way.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/20/11; 9:00 AM EST = -42; signal line is -14

12/19/11; 2:59 PM EST = -42; signal line is -12

12/19/11; 2:50 PM EST = -26; signal line is -10

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short.  The algorithm is very active today, clicking off five numbers thus far today.  The retail sector tried to hold on but collapsed at 3 PM taking the broad market lower.  SPX currently trying to hold the critical 1204 support.

Interestingly, volatility, VIX is only up 2.8%, a move of double that would be expected considering the broad market move lower.  Thus, many traders continue to believe in the potential Santa Claus Rally. 

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/20/11; 9:00 AM EST =

12/19/11; 2:59 PM EST = -42; signal line is -12

12/19/11; 2:50 PM EST = -26; signal line is -10

12/19/11; 2:04 PM EST = -42; signal line is -8

12/19/11; 1:43 PM EST = -26; signal line is -6

12/19/11; 1:38 PM EST = -42; signal line is -5

12/18/11; 7:00 PM EST = -26; signal line is -4

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Minutes ago, retail failed.  The algo is constantly recalculating so the RTH level of interest moved up this morning from 109.40 to 109.62. This level failed and the RTH is now printing 109.50.  Watch to see if the weakness stays for ten minutes.  If so, the markets will weaken considerably.  If RTH can move back above 109.62, broad markets will bounce. The SPX 1215 level failed this morning leading the way lower to test 1209 as projected in the previous post.

Note Added 12/19/11 at 1:55 PM:  As the message above was typed, RTH popped back above 109.62 and is now printing 109.85. The bulls saved the day--for now. Keep watching RTH 109.62 the remainder of the day since it will determine broad market direction.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/20/11; 9:00 AM EST =

12/19/11; 1:38 PM EST = -42; signal line is -5

12/18/11; 7:00 PM EST = -26; signal line is -4

12/15/11; 9:30 AM EST = -26; signal line is -3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the algo idles this weekend. The utilities and retail sectors, along with the lower relative volatility, are the three legs supporting the bull stool. The elevated utilities hint that the indexes will want to rally in preparation for setting up for the next market move lower. The financials weakened last week, however, and the market bulls must have the financials gain traction if the markets are to rally.

Watch RTH 109.40, now with a 110 handle and market bullish, providing overall market lift. If 109.40 is lost, the selling in the indexes will pick up dramatically. The market bulls need to drive the XLF above 12.82 to attain a more sustainable broad market Santa Claus-type rally. If the RTH does not move under 109.40, and the XLF cannot get above 12.82, the broad indexes will continue to bump along sideways as traders enjoy the eggnog.

For the SPX on Monday, starting at about 1220, the bears need five points lower to break under 1215, if so, the sellers will enter the markets in force and the broad indexes will accelerate the down move. If the market bulls can touch the 1231 handle, that will signal the all-clear and the buyers will accelerate the upside from there. A move thru 1216-1232 is sideways action. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week, one on Tuesday morning and one on Thursday morning. Markets remain at the mercy of Europe and especially the potential S&P downgrade of France debt.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =

12/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/11; 10:00 AM EST =

12/20/11; 9:00 AM EST =

12/18/11; 7:00 PM EST = -26; signal line is -4

12/15/11; 9:30 AM EST = -26; signal line is -3

12/14/11; 2:00 PM EST = -42; signal line is -2

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo motored along yesterday without printing any additional numbers other than the opening print. Watch RTH to see if it maintains its bullish posture above 109.40, or it it fails. Above 109.40 and the broad markets remain buoyant, below and the markets will sell off. Watch XLF 12.82, if price punches up thru this will cause significant buying in the markets and take the indexes higher. If XLF stays below 12.82, it places a ceiling at these current levels for the broad markets.

For the SPX today, starting at 1216, watch for any break from the 1216-1220 sideways channel from yesterday.  Also any break from the wider 1210-1225 sideways channel now in place. Just like yesterday, if the SPX can touch the 1226 handle, the upside will explode higher with lots of bullish confidence.  If the SPX drops under 1212 today, the sellers will enter in force and the markets will be tumbling much lower, testing the critical 1210 level and likely failing. A move thru 1214-1224 is sideways action. The market bears remain in control overall.

12/18/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/15/11; 9:30 AM EST = -26; signal line is -3

12/14/11; 2:00 PM EST = -42; signal line is -2

12/14/11; 1:14 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1

12/14/11; 10:08 AM EST = -42; signal line is -1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short but the retail sector, RTH, popped above 109.40 at the open. The SPX moved upwards but could not touch the 1226 level, so price drifted lower.  The SPX has moved out into a sideways symmetrical triangle today which should resolve before the close.  Volatility keeps printing lows favoring market bulls.  If the XLF moves above 12.82, the broad market bulls will rally strong.  If the RTH drops under 109.40, the market bears will push the indexes lower. Otherwise, the indexes float along sideways.

12/18/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/15/11; 9:30 AM EST = -26; signal line is -3

12/14/11; 2:00 PM EST = -42; signal line is -2

12/14/11; 1:14 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1

12/14/11; 10:08 AM EST = -42; signal line is -1

12/13/11; 2:19 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1

12/13/11; 11:24 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2

12/13/11; 11:05 AM EST = -26; signal line is -4

12/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -5

12/12/11; 10:25 AM EST = -26; signal line is -6; go short 1234; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.9%)(Keybot this trade=+3.4%; Keybot for 2011=+31.7%)(Actual this trade via IWM=+4.7%; Actual for 2011=+37.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short to start the Thursday session.  Watch the RTH 109.40 level as the bell rings to determine broad market direction. For the SPX, starting at 1212, the bears have it easy and only have to push three points lower to 1209.50, if so, the broad market selling will accelerate.  SPX 1209-1210 and 1204 are strong support. The market bulls need to move the SPX up to touch 1226, if so, the markets will accelerate skyward. A move thru 1210-1224 is sideways action. The bears are in control and cruising.

12/18/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/14/11; 2:00 PM EST = -42; signal line is -2

12/14/11; 1:14 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1

12/14/11; 10:08 AM EST = -42; signal line is -1

12/13/11; 2:19 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1

12/13/11; 11:24 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2

12/13/11; 11:05 AM EST = -26; signal line is -4

12/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -5

12/12/11; 10:25 AM EST = -26; signal line is -6; go short 1234; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.9%)(Keybot this trade=+3.4%; Keybot for 2011=+31.7%)(Actual this trade via IWM=+4.7%; Actual for 2011=+37.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo is bumping along clicking off a couple more numbers and maintaining bearishness. RTH 109.40 continues to play out today.  Now printing 109.21 so watch this into the close. Bears are maintaining control.

12/18/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/14/11; 2:00 PM EST = -42; signal line is -2

12/14/11; 1:14 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1

12/14/11; 10:08 AM EST = -42; signal line is -1

12/13/11; 2:19 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1

12/13/11; 11:24 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2

12/13/11; 11:05 AM EST = -26; signal line is -4

12/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -5

12/12/11; 10:25 AM EST = -26; signal line is -6; go short 1234; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.9%)(Keybot this trade=+3.4%; Keybot for 2011=+31.7%)(Actual this trade via IWM=+4.7%; Actual for 2011=+37.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo printed a number at 10 AM as the retail sector rolled over. Continue watching RTH 109.40 today.  SPX collapsed thru 1220 so the selling accelerated as described in this mornings missive.  Strong support exists at 1210 and 1204. Weakness will continue today if RTH stays under 109.40.

12/18/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/14/11; 10:08 AM EST = -42; signal line is -1

12/13/11; 2:19 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1

12/13/11; 11:24 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2

12/13/11; 11:05 AM EST = -26; signal line is -4

12/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -5

12/12/11; 10:25 AM EST = -26; signal line is -6; go short 1234; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.9%)(Keybot this trade=+3.4%; Keybot for 2011=+31.7%)(Actual this trade via IWM=+4.7%; Actual for 2011=+37.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short to start the Wednesday session. No whipsaw has occurred as yet as the algo's flip to the short side is now approaching two days old.  The drama yesterday was around the financials, XLF, dancing above and below the critical 12.82 level identified by the quant.  When the Fed released their announcement in the 2 o'clock hour, without any mention of future quantitative easing, the financials collapsed. XLF plummeted taking the broad markets down.  Retail was weak all day due to gloomy Best Buy news and weaker than expected retail sales data. RTH dropped significantly which accelerated the late day market selling.

The utiltites are remaining elevated so this hints that a more sustainable broad market move down is not in the cards currently, the utes typically lead or are coincidental with such a move lower.  Financials and retail are key to determining market direction today.  Watch XLF 12.82 and more importantly, RTH 109.40. RTH starts the day at 109.89. If 109.40 is lost, a significant increase in broad market selling will occur.

For the SPX today, starting at 1226, the market bears have the ball and need to push lower to lose the 1220 handle.  If so, the large block sellers will enter the markets accelerating a further down move and the bears will clearly have the momo.  Bulls are simply trying to stop the bleeding today by preventing deterioration in the retail sector, boosting the banks and making sure that the critical 1220 support holds. A move thru SPX 1221-1248 is sideways action. The caution flag remains out since the indexes are very jumpy now and the low readings of volatility, VIX, relatively, hint that the market downside would be limited. Markets remain at the mercy of Europe news.

12/18/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/13/11; 2:19 PM EST = -26; signal line is -1

12/13/11; 11:24 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2

12/13/11; 11:05 AM EST = -26; signal line is -4

12/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -5

12/12/11; 10:25 AM EST = -26; signal line is -6; go short 1234; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.9%)(Keybot this trade=+3.4%; Keybot for 2011=+31.7%)(Actual this trade via IWM=+4.7%; Actual for 2011=+37.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short thus far today, clicking off two more numbers. Financials, XLF, are dancing across the 12.82 bull-bear line causing the broad markets to ebb and flow accordingly.  XLF is now printing 12.86, four pennies above the critical 12.82 level. Above 12.82 and the markets will continue to drift along flat to upwards. Below 12.82 and the market selling will noticeably increase as indexes move lower.

12/18/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/13/11; 11:24 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2

12/13/11; 11:05 AM EST = -26; signal line is -4

12/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -5

12/12/11; 10:25 AM EST = -26; signal line is -6; go short 1234; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.9%)(Keybot this trade=+3.4%; Keybot for 2011=+31.7%)(Actual this trade via IWM=+4.7%; Actual for 2011=+37.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo printed a number at the open. The financials, XLF, popped and are creating the broad market buoyancy so far today. Copper and semiconductors remain weak.

12/18/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/13/11; 9:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -5

12/12/11; 10:25 AM EST = -26; signal line is -6; go short 1234; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.9%)(Keybot this trade=+3.4%; Keybot for 2011=+31.7%)(Actual this trade via IWM=+4.7%; Actual for 2011=+37.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short as Tuesday begins.  The algorithm flipped to the bear side yesterday when copper, financials and semiconductors collapsed. The algo did not print out any additional numbers the remainder of the day. Continue watching SOX 371.30, XLF 12.82 and JJC 45.40. If broad markets remain weak, watch the RTH 110-ish level; closing yesterday two points above and continuing to help support the broad indexes.  Retail sales data hits at 8:30 AM as well as Best Buy earnings and this will set the market tone.

For now, the bears are tying to make a push lower. The market bulls need to boost SOX, XLF and JJC again, otherwise, they will lose their grip. For the SPX today, starting at 1236, hanging on to that critical strong 1235 support, if the 1255 handle is touched, 20 points higher, this will launch a large upside move and signal that the market bulls have regained control. The bears have an easier road to hoe since a move down to 1227 will cause the indexes to tumble much lower. A move thru 1228-1254 is sideways action.

Today we see if Keybot whipsaws back to the long side or if the algo is content with motoring along on the short side for a while, thus, the caution flag remains out. Markets should be jumpy all day long into the Fed announcement at 2:15 PM.

12/18/11; 7:00 PM EST =

12/12/11; 10:25 AM EST = -26; signal line is -6; go short 1234; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-1.9%)(Keybot this trade=+3.4%; Keybot for 2011=+31.7%)(Actual this trade via IWM=+4.7%; Actual for 2011=+37.0%)

12/12/11; 10:20 AM EST = -26; signal line is -6 but algorithm says stay long

12/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -6 but algorithm says stay long

12/11/11; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is -7