STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the pre-scheduled EOM number prints this evening. Keybot wants to go short but other algorithm rules are holding it back. The SPX:VIX ratio stays under 68 today but a large down day did not occur in the markets. Therefore, a large market down day is tomorrow's projection, unless the ratio moves back above 68.

UTIL remains below the critical 453 number for this week so this favors bears.  CRB is over 309.50 so this favors bulls. One of these two will likely capitulate tomorrow. If UTIL moves above 453, the bulls win. If CRB drops under 309.50, the bears win.

For the SPX in the Wednesday session, starting at 1312, the market bears start off with the advantage since the SPX:VIX is under 68. If the ratio stays under 68 and the SPX drops under 1307, five points lower, this will likely seal the deal for the market bears moving forward.  A drop of SPX thru 1307 will probably be accompanied by the CRB failing at 309.50 and Keybot flipping short.

Obviously the market bulls are not ready to shut the party down. If the bulls push the SPX upwards and over 1321, the fix is in, UTIL will likely be above 453, and the bulls will accelerate upwards causing more bear pain.  A move thru 1308-1320 is sideways action.

In a nutshell, broad market direction for Wednesday trading is determined by SPX:VIX 68, UTIL 453, CRB 309.50, and SPX 1307 or 1321. The futures will tell the tale before the opening bell rings tomorrow since China PMI hits overnight and will immediately set the tone for Wednesday's trade.  If China PMI is weak, the commodities will take a hit, CRB will likely move lower, and Keybot will probably move to the short side.  If the PMI is stronger than expected, the commodities, copper, oil, gold, silver and equities will fly high and the bulls will pop the champagne corks.

The low volatility and low volume environment are driving the robots and high frequency algo's crazy these days, reminiscent of the first half of 2011. Set the alarm clock early since the China and Europe action between 3 AM and 7 AM EST will probably dictate tomorrow's trade. Guard your Cheerio's.

2/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/3/12; 9:00 AM EST =

1/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +48; signal line is +48 but algorithm says stay long

1/31/12; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +48 but algorithm says stay long

1/30/12; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +48

Note Added 1/31/12 at 9 PM EST:  China PMI is reported as 50.5, above the consensus estimates of 49.6 and last months 50.3, so a positive result albeit slightly. Whisper numbers, however, were higher. Thus, another number that has something for everyone. Above 50 shows an economy growing and below 50 is an economy in contraction. The HSBC number should follow in a few hours and will provide better insight. Keep an ear out for any word on the China triple R ease as well.

Note Added 2/1/12 at 4:48 AM EST:  China HSBC PMI, which is thought to be a slightly more independent and reliable number carrying more weight, prints 48.8 a 0.1 tick up from 48.7 last month.  Thus, the HSBC number shows China in contraction not expansion and that difficulties remain.  The results overall could not be more of a mixed bag. U.S. futures are strongly green with about a nine pont S&P pop slated for the open, however, the open remains a long way off.  Oil and copper are jumping strongly, no doubt following off of the China PMI number, thus the CRB would be expected to climb and it looks like the bulls will conintue the party at this juncture.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but the algorithm, for the first time in three weeks, threatens to go short. The pre-scheduled number printed minutes ago. The algo number versus signal line relationship is tied at +48 but the significant digits in the program have opened the door to moving to the short side.  Other algorithm rules now take over and they have a couple loose ends that are not yet satisfied to allow the quant to go short.  Thus, we wait.  A turn appears imminent today or tomorrow but Keybot has a mind of its own and time will tell.

UTIL stays below 453, bearish.  The markets pivoted to the downside at 10 AM on the weak Consumer Confidence data.  At the open, the SPX took out 1316 so the acceleration skyward occurred as forecasted in last nights missive. The broad indexes have weakened today and the tell early on was that tech, the Nasdaq, is not leading the upside, a sea change compared to the month of January thus far. CRB is sporting a 315 handle remaining five points above danger. CRB at 310 would more than likely guarantee Keybot to go short.

The SPX:VIX ratio just lost the 68 level which signals a large down day on tap today, if the ratio stays under 68.  Stay on guard and cautious. Markets are unstable.

2/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/3/12; 9:00 AM EST =

1/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

1/31/12; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +48 but algorithm says stay long

1/30/12; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +48

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo printed a number at the opening bell, due to the weakness in the utilities, but the move lower for the algo number came up short of signaling Keybot to go short.  That flush move lower sucked in short sellers and then proceeded to rip their faces off in the afternoon.

UTIL under 453 is a huge feather in the market bears cap. Also of interest is the SPX:VIX ratio, now at 67.68, indicating a large down day ahead for tomorrow, and further market bearishness moving forward, unless the ratio pops up above 68. A key item to watch is the commodities index, CRB, which closed at 313.91. If the 310 level is lost, that should push Keybot to the short side. Thus, bears need to see a stronger dollar since this pushes commodities, copper, etc... lower.

For the SPX, starting at 1313, the market bulls only need three points higher, to move up and over 1316, and the upside will accelerate into a bull leg skyward. The market bears need to push under 1300.50, if so, the large block sellers will enter and the markets will accelerate strongly south to test 1295 in short order.  A move thru 1302-1315 is sideways action.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM tomorrow so the market action can be updated at that time.  Note that tomorrow is also the EOM so Keybot will also print a pre-scheduled number in the evening.  These pre-scheduled numbers are key since they help ratchet the signal line higher, thus, the quant could very well flip short sometime over the next day or two.  Stay on guard. Markets are highly unstable and exhibiting erratic action due to low volume trading.

2/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/3/12; 9:00 AM EST =

1/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

1/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/30/12; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +48

1/29/12; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new trading week is underway. The algo starts the week by printing a number at the opening bell. The quant is on the ragged edge of flipping to the short side, note the algo number and signal line are the same at +48. Other algorithm rules are guiding Keybot currently and the program is maintaining the long side, if only by a sliver.

UTIL moves lower, staying under 453, so the market bearish malaise will continue. The NYA 7650 level is a target where the algo would move to the short side but that remains about a 100 points lower for the NYA. Interesting start to the week, the bulls are hanging on by a fingernail but for now, Keybot remains long.

2/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/3/12; 9:00 AM EST =

1/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

1/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/30/12; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +48

1/29/12; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the new trading week begins.  The bears tried to make a push on Friday but the strength of the tech sector, and Nasdaq, was too much to overcome.  The algorithm has been bullish for about six weeks now.  To start the new week, however, there are cracks forming in the bull case since the utilities sector has now dropped into a weekly downtrend. This typically precedes extended bearish action in markets.

UTIL closed at 449, four points below the 453 level, indicating that, when the bell rings tomorrow morning, that utilities will create bearish pressure on the broad markets. The only way this can be prevented is for UTIL to move above 453, specifically the 452.66 number. In fact, for the next four weeks the utilities must maintain the 450's or higher otherwise the broad markets will experience deterioration. Thus, at the opening bell tomorrow, watch UTIL 452.66 like a hawk, if UTIL moves above, the fix is in, the bulls will continue with broad market upside. If UTIL stays under 452.66, the broad indexes will weaken.

Preliminary indications show that Keybot is on the ragged edge of flipping to the short side but even with UTIL staying under 453, the aglo should remain long, but only by a single hair. Monday proves to be an interesting trading day.

For the SPX, starting at 1316, if the market bears can push under the 1312 level, especially with UTIL staying sub 453, strong broad market selling will occur and a test of SPX 1307-1308 will occur quickly. The market bulls need to push the SPX up to touch the 1320 handle which will ignite another upside buying frenzy.  A move thru 1313-1319 is sideways action.

Markets remain highly unstable. Expect the unexpected. Keybot remains long but is a hair away from flipping to the short side.  The algo prints two pre-scheduled numbers on Tuesday and one on Friday morning.  The algo should become immediately active at tomorrow morning's opening bell and is likely to print number/s as trading gets underway.

2/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/3/12; 9:00 AM EST =

1/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

1/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/29/12; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +47

1/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the pre-scheduled number prints. There is no change to the algo number but note how the signal line keeps ratcheting upwards. The higher the signal line moves the closer the quant comes to flipping to the short side.

The SPX dropped at the open to tag the 1313.60 projection, and bounced.  Thus, this support requires close watching today, another test of this level should be likely today.  The utes are showing weakness again but UTIL remains well above the danger level with a 439 handle.  The utes close today is extremely important.  The number the algo identified for UTIL this week is 439 but next week this increases to 453 starting at the opening bell on Monday morning. If UTIL is under 453 at 4 PM today, this is an extremely major bearish signal for the broad markets.  Keybot will drop at the opening bell on Monday morning as a result of this print and the trend change to the short side may be at hand.

Markets are very dicey currently.  Stay on guard, these markets are extremely unstable currently and a significant trend change may be at the doorstep.

1/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +45

1/23/12; 9:33 AM EST = +64; signal line is +43

1/23/12; 9:21 AM EST = +50; signal line is +41


Note Added 1/27/12 at 10:11 AM:  Speak of the devil, the SPX came down to test that 1313.60 support again, and bounced again. The bulls are fending off the negativity so far.  Look for another test of 1313.60.


Note Added 1/27/12 at 10:15 AM:  Failure at 1313.60. Bears got some game today.  See if the 1313.60 now serves as resistance as the day moves along.  A several handle downside acceleration would be expected if the bears stay under 1313.60 for seven to ten minutes. There is the answer, the SPX popping upwards again. More drama should occur at 1313.60.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant motors along on the long side with the bulls maintaining their control. The SPX moved up thru 1328.30 yesterday so the upside accelerated to test the 1331 and 1333 resistance levels before receiving a spank down, closing at 1318.  The algorithm remains in this bullish mode for almost six weeks now.

For the SPX today, starting at 1318, the market bears have a bit of an advantage.  The bears need to push under the 1314 level, if so, a downside acceleration in the markets will occur, especially if/when the SPX loses 1313.60. The market bulls have a tougher road ahead for Friday.  The bulls need to push the SPX up and over 1333.50, if so, the bull party will kick in once again.  A move thru 1315-1331 is sideways action.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM this morning so the market action can be updated at that time. The algorithm has moved along stone cold silent since the print at Monday's open.  Is this the calm before the storm?

1/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/23/12; 9:33 AM EST = +64; signal line is +43

1/23/12; 9:21 AM EST = +50; signal line is +41

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as Chairman Bernanke throws money around like confetti. The Fed announced that low rates will remain into late 2014, a change from the existing wording that targeted low rates to mid 2013.  The dollar plummets and commodities, copper and equities sky rocket higher. The euro moves up with the equities markets.

The bulls are in control. Earnings are reporting in-line, based on the lower estimates, the pre-announcement season was the worst in several quarters, so the bar that companies have to jump over is laying on the floor.  The algorithm shows the markets to be very bullish and resilient. Note that the algo has not printed a number since the opening bell on Monday morning. This lull typically ends in a flutter of activity at some point so extreme caution is required. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.

For the SPX today, starting at 1326, if the market bulls can punch up thru 1328.30, the upside will roar to life once again, and another bull party will accelerate the buying.  The bears are simply trying to stop the bleeding today and slow the upside momo since a move under 1308 is needed to usher in negativity, a formidable task. A move thru 1309-1327 is sideways action.

1/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/23/12; 9:33 AM EST = +64; signal line is +43

1/23/12; 9:21 AM EST = +50; signal line is +41

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and motored along all day without printing any numbers.  The SPX fell thru 1310 so price accelerated down to 1306 but after the first ten minutes of trading, trended up the rest of the day.  The CRB, commodities, remains elevated and served to keep the bulls buoyant.  The CRB is now 314.69 well above the algorithm level of interest now at 310.40, so the bulls are in clover. The SPX:VIX ratio fell under 68 indicating a large sell off on tap but managed to move back above in the afternoon.

Utilities are key this week as discussed on the weekend.  The danger level for markets is if the UTIL falls under 439.  If so, the broad markets are in serious trouble.  UTIL is sporting a 446 handle now and the low today was a 445 handle. These numbers are close enough to 439 to now create concern.  The algorithm will react very negatively should the UTIL 439 level fail.

For the SPX for Wednesday, starting at 1315, the market bulls have the wind at their backs. One measley point higher is all that is needed to ignite another strong leg up for the markets.  If the SPX touches the 1316 handle, the upside will accelerate strongly with the SPX moving back up towards 1322, perhaps 1326.  Thus, if the futures are green, and with the blow-out AAPL earnings you would think that to be a strong possibility, the bulls will be dancing to victory again.

The market bears need to push nine points lower to lose the 1306 handle.  If so, the bears will receive the downside momo they desired today but did not attain. SPX 1300 would be tested in short order and more than likely prints in the 1290's would appear.  A move thru 1307-1313 is sideways action.

In a nutshell, focus on SPX:VIX 68, UTIL 439, CRB 310.40 and SPX 1316/1306 to determine broad market direction. Markets are highly unstable.  Extreme caution is required. Expect the unexpected.

1/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/23/12; 9:33 AM EST = +64; signal line is +43

1/23/12; 9:21 AM EST = +50; signal line is +41

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo idled along all day after the three printouts earlier in the day.  Once the CRB rocked higher with a weaker dollar the bears were in for a long day.  Bears made the run lower, however, at noon, as measured by the SPX:VIX ratio 68 level.  Price came down to test, a failure would result in a large market sell off but the ratio instead bounced off the 68 level and the bulls were saved. Markets traveled upwards into the close.

Utilities, UTIL, are key this week, and a failure at 439 means big trouble for markets but at 449 now, over ten points higher, the bulls have their feet up on the desk, no worries.  The market bears need a strong dollar to bring copper, commodites and the markets lower.  The first sign of any market weakness should show up with the CRB falling below 310.40. Note that this level is lower than what the algo was targeting yesterday making it a wee bit more difficult for the bears.

For the SPX for Tuesday, starting at 1316, with doji candles on both the daily and weekly charts, the market bulls need to move up and over 1322, like today, and the upside will roar to life, with the broad markets accelerating in another leg up for the never-ending bull rally.  SPX would likely test 1326 in short order.  The market bears need to push the SPX under 1310, if so, the downside will accelerate, large block sellers will enter and the broad markets will drop several more handles in short order.  A move thru 1311-1321 is sideways action.

The markets are at a dangerous perch perhaps only a catalyst away from a wild move.  The dollar weakness and euro strength the last few days have provided the boost for the broad markets. Watch the dollar, CRB 310.40, UTIL 439, SPX 1322/1310 and SPX:VIX 68 to determine broad market direction. Stay on guard. Expect the unexpected.

1/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/23/12; 9:33 AM EST = +64; signal line is +43

1/23/12; 9:21 AM EST = +50; signal line is +41

1/23/12; 8:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +40

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long, the broad markets continue to float upwards.  The SPX took out Friday's closing high print at 1315.38 causing an upside acceleration.  The SPX 1314-1318 strong resistance cluster appears to be folding like a cheap suit.  The CRB is back above 311.50 providing today's bullish strength.  The markets will remain elevated unless the CRB loses 311.50.

Watch the SPX:VIX ratio since it poked above 68.  Any drop under 68 will likely trigger a strong broad market sell off.  Note how Keybot keeps ratcheting up the signal line, this will make a turn to the bear side occur easily--when it decides to occur.  For now, the bulls keep motoring along. Focus on CRB 311.50 and SPX:VIX 68 today to determine broad market direction. Remain cautious and stay on guard.

1/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/23/12; 9:33 AM EST = +64; signal line is +43

1/23/12; 9:21 AM EST = +50; signal line is +41

1/23/12; 8:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +40

1/22/12; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +38

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side, for about five week nows.  The immediate initial read on the broad markets Monday morning starts with the commodities.  If the CRB remains under 311.50, the bears can stop the upwards market move.  Thus, watch the dollar; up dollar = down markets and down dollar = up markets.  Keybot is also focused on the utilities, UTIL, the 439 level, 438.76 to be exact.  If that level is lost, the broad indexes will be in serious trouble.  If UTIL maintains 439 or higher, now at about 448, the market bulls will be whistling along without a care in the world.

Market bulls are in good shape unless the SPX 1283 level and/or NYA 7690 level is lost. This represents the 12-month MA for SPX and the 40-week MA for NYA, two key secular market signals, and the bulls have regained these levels during this recent rally. The SPX 1283 is especially key for the month-end print, on Tuesday, 1/31/12, since the number will be cast in concrete. If the bears want to fight back they need to bring it this week.

Specifically, for Monday, for the SPX, starting at 1315, if the futures are green, even only pennnies on the green side, the bulls are going to enter the markets in force from the get-go with the broad indexes moving up strongly.  The market bears need to keep the futures red at all costs.  Additionally, the bears must push the SPX six points lower, to lose the 1309 handle, if so, the broad markets will fall several more handles in quick order, the SPX will likely then test 1300.  A move thru 1310-1314 is sideways action but very unlikely considering the tightness of the range.  Therefore, the bulls win with green futures, or, the bears win under 1309.

The algo number is only 12 points away from the signal line so a trend change may occur at any time.  Markets remain highly unstable.  Expect the unexpected.  Caution is warranted. Keybot prints out only one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

1/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/22/12; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +38

1/20/12; 8:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo printed a number before yesterday's open but then idled along all day without any further action.  The market bulls are rolling along. The algorithm has now remained long for about five weeks. This ongoing market rally is more due to the anticipated China easing, and subsequent pop in copper, commodities and so forth, than Euro news.

Commodities, CRB, however, collapsed thru 311.50 yesterday, and remains there, allowing the bears to influence the markets negatively, but, by the close the market bulls pulled the indexes higher.  Note that the bulls needed to touch SPX 1315.50 to set off further upside but remained below all day long, only to make a run in the final minutes and fall short, printing a close and HOD at 1315.38.

The week ahead is pivotal. UTIL 439, CRB 311.50, SPX 1283 and NYA 7690 are all important, especially the utilities.  The various sectors and levels that Keybot is targeting can be discussed tomorrow after Sunday's pre-scheduled number prints out.  Extreme caution is warranted. Stay on guard, Keybot may flip to the short side at anytime, especially if the utes fail.

1/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/20/12; 8:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +36

1/19/12; 1:13 PM EST = +64; signal line is +35

1/19/12; 12:38 PM EST = +50; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after another interesting day of trading.  The bullishness in the markets is quite remarkable and highlighted below. The CRB fell thru 311.50 today but recovered in the afternoon to help maintain broad market buoyancy.  The CRB 311.50 is the key item to watch as the Friday trade begins. Above and the bulls will float the indexes higher into the weekend.  If you see 311.50 fail first thing in the morning, the bears will push the broad markets lower.

For the SPX for Friday, starting at 1314.50, the bulls need one measley point higher, to move above 1315.50, and the upside orgy will continue with bulls looking for lamp shades to don, partying hardy into the weekend. If the bears can start the day with the CRB under 311.50, with a stronger dollar, and push the SPX lower to lose the 1308 handle, the bears will growl into the weekend and the bull party will come to a fast end.  A move thru 1309-1314 is sideways action. The 1314, 1316 and 1318 levels are very strong resistance levels, price pierced the 1314 level to close above today (so 1314 is now support). This 1314-1318 is a resistance gauntlet that should not succumb easy to the bull onslaught.

These markets continue to confound the short sellers.  The SPX has moved from 1200, in late November, to 1315, 115 points, in 36 trading days, or +9.6%.  Traders must have found bullish strength in that Thanksgiving Day turkey feast! The SPX is climbing about three points a day on average, each trading day, since late November!

These markets remain highly unstable and prone for an erratic move at anytime.  Stay on guard. The weakness in the utilities is cause for major concern if bullish since a move down in utes (UTIL topped in December) typically foretells extended and substantial broad market downside ahead. Watch CRB 311.50 and SPX 1315.50 and 1308.00 tomorrow for clues on market direction.  If the bears start to win the game, watch for failures at NYA 7691 (40-week MA) and SPX 1283 (12-month MA) which would signal an end to the bull rally.  For now, the bulls are looking around for lamp shades for Friday, with drink in hand, surely the party will never end, right?

1/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/19/12; 1:13 PM EST = +64; signal line is +35

1/19/12; 12:38 PM EST = +50; signal line is +34

1/19/12; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +32

1/19/12; 8:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +31

1/18/12; 9:50 AM EST = +50; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The CRB is above 311.50, albeit slightly, which creates further market buoyancy. The pre-scheduled number clicked off with no change in the algo number but the signal line keeps moving upwards. Stay cautious with this market. CRB 311.50 will dictate broad market direction especially in the early going.

1/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/19/12; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +32

1/19/12; 8:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +31

1/18/12; 9:50 AM EST = +50; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after another phenomenal day for the market bulls.  Just when you think the bulls are packing it in another move higher occurs in the broad indexes. There were few shorts to begin with today and the boost in price the last five minutes hint that some of those capitulated at the close. The CRB will tell you first thing in the morning if the bulls will continue the rally.  If the CRB 311.50 level gives way to the upside then the bulls will run further.  The market bears need to keep the CRB under 311.50 if they plan on fighting back.

For the SPX, starting at 1308, the bulls have the easy road, all they need to see is green futures and Thursday will provide another bull party. If the futures are red, the bears will be thrown a bone.  Market bears have to move the SPX back down to 1291 and lower to get the negative momo back. This is 17 handles lower, a formidable task.  A move thru 1292-1307 is sideways action.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 9 AM so the day's trading levels can be fine tuned at that time.  The algorithm floats along on the bull side since SPX 1240 back on 12/20/11, now 68 handles to the good side. Caution is warranted, these markets are highly unstable.  Expect the unexpected at anytime.

1/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/19/12; 9:00 AM EST =

1/18/12; 9:50 AM EST = +50; signal line is +29

1/18/12; 8:45 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26

1/18/12; 8:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +25

1/17/12; 2:35 PM EST = +36; signal line is +23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo had an early start today as the CRB tested higher levels, but since has pulled back down again.  In the equities markets directly, the NYA regained the coveted 40-week MA at 7688 which lit the upside fire for the indexes.  SPX is now testing 1303, that is the magic number the market bulls need to touch, otherwise, the bears are still in business. Watch CRB 311.50, NYA 7688 and SPX 1303 to determine broad market direction.

Note how Keybot is ratcheting up the signal line; this will ulitmately allow the flip to the short side to occur faster, the higher the signal line moves.  Continue to exercise caution, the algo may be nearing a turn.

1/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/19/12; 9:00 AM EST =

1/18/12; 9:50 AM EST = +50; signal line is +29

1/18/12; 8:45 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26

1/18/12; 8:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +25

1/17/12; 2:35 PM EST = +36; signal line is +23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but caution is required. The algorithm has been long since 12/20/11, almost one month, but now the markets appear toppy.  The NYA moving above the 40-week MA was very important today but price failed in the afternoon. Watch NYA 7688. The NYA is now at 7670, eighteen points under and contributing to market bearishness.

Watch the CRB 311.50 level tomorrow as well.  CRB is now at 310.83, only 67 cents on the bear side adding to overall market bearishness. If NYA and CRB stay bearish, the broad markets should drift lower. If the indexes sell off tomorrow, watch SPX 1281 where substantail market failure would occur. For the market bulls, either the NYA or CRB or both need to move above the levels listed since this will create further broad market buoyancy.

For the SPX tomorrow, starting at 1294, the market bears have the wind at their back since they pushed the indexes lower into Tuesday's close. If the market bears push lower by only 3 points and drop under the 1290 level, the large block sellers will enter the markets in force.  The SPX will drop in quick order more than likely on its way to test 1281 in short order. SPX 1281 is critical, if lost, the markets should fall into extreme stress. If the market bulls, however, instead push higher to touch the 1303 handle, the upside will explode into a buying frenzy and the broad markets will make their way much higher. A move thru 1292-1302 is sideways action.

Do not fall into complacency like the broad markets have over the last few days. Keybot remains on edge anticipating a trend change at anytime. If the SPX loses 1281, Keybot will likely flip to the short side.  Caution is warranted.  Stay alert. NYA 7688 and CRB 311.50 will quickly tell the tale in the morning. If weakness appears in the indexes, watch SPX 1281 like a hawk.

1/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/19/12; 9:00 AM EST =

1/17/12; 2:35 PM EST = +36; signal line is +23

1/17/12; 9:32 AM EST = +50; signal line is +23

1/15/12; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +22

STOCK MARKET BULLISH - -LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The NYA collpased back down thru the 40-week MA so the bullishness earlier in the day was short-lived.  The algo number is within 13 points of the signal line now so caution is warranted.  Markets are unstable.

1/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/19/12; 9:00 AM EST =

1/17/12; 2:35 PM EST = +36; signal line is +23

1/17/12; 9:32 AM EST = +50; signal line is +23

1/15/12; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +22

STOCK MARKET BULLISH - -LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The market bulls came to play today pushing the NYA up thru the 40-week MA which is a strong broad market bullish indication. This 40-week moving average is at 7688 and NYA is now printing 7706, so 18 points on the bull side.  Keep watching the NYA 7688 today, if price falls back thru that will show that the bears are starting to push back. If NYA stays above 7688, the market bulls are in clover.

The CRB remains under 313 which shows that the bulls do not have as much juice as it may seem thus far today. The Nasdaq is leading the upside today which is bullish.  Extreme caution is warranted. This bullish move comes with complacency so stay alert for a reversal at any time. NYA 7688 will show the way.

1/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/19/12; 9:00 AM EST =

1/17/12; 9:32 AM EST = +50; signal line is +23

1/15/12; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +22

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long ahead of the new week of trading beginning on Tuesday (markets are closed on Monday). The algorithm has been flirting with moving to the short side but each time the algo number nears the signal line, the market bulls find a way to float the markets upwards, and Keybot remains long since 12/20/11.

Copper did the heavy lifting last week for the bulls.  The key item to watch at the open on Tuesday, and as the week moves along, is the SPX 1281 level, which is the 12-month MA. Market bulls have no concerns as long as the SPX stays above 1281. If the SPX fails the 1281 level, however, more than likely the downside will be strong and sustainable, and the quant will likely flip to the short side.

Watch the retail sector, RTH, since a fall from grace is anticipated which would negatively impact the broad markets. Watch commodities, CRB 313, now five points under and contributiing to the bear vibe in the broad markets. The NYA 7706 level is important as well. NYA is now at 7632. If the NYA gains 74 more points, this will embolden the market bulls and the broad indexes will be headed much higher.  If the NYA stays below, the bears benefit.

For the SPX on Tuesday, starting at 1289, if the bulls push higher and touch the 1295 handle, that will immediately accelerate a broad market upside move and the new week will be off to a happy start; the SPX should print 1300 in short order.  If the market bears come to play, however, and push the SPX lower to move under the critical 1281 level, markets should weaken noticeably.  The 1278 level should fall as well and if so, that would seal the deal for the market bears with sustainable downside likely moving forward.  A move thru 1282-1294 is sideways action. 

Only one pre-scheduled number prints during the week this week on Thursday morning at 9 AM.  Extreme caution is warranted. To keep the markets as simple as possible, market bulls win if the SPX stays above 1281, market bears will win if the SPX loses 1281.

1/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/19/12; 9:00 AM EST =

1/15/12; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +22

1/13/12; 10:26 AM EST = +36; signal line is +22

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long thru the three-day holiday weekend.  U.S. markets are closed Monday in Observance of the Dr. Martin Luther King Day holiday so the action does not pick up until Tuesday morning. The SPX regained the 1286 level as the session played out but the algorithm simply idled along into the close without printing any additional numbers. Next week's road map will be laid out when the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints. The market bulls keep on truckin', for now.  SPX 1281, the 12-month MA, is an important level to watch next week.

1/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/13/12; 10:26 AM EST = +36; signal line is +22

1/13/12; 10:18 AM EST = +22; signal line is +21

1/13/12; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +21

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Markets are weak on the impending Euro nation downgrades, especially France.  SPX 1281 was tested, and failed.  The bulls are not giving up, however, and are now back up to back test this critical 1281 level.  Note that Keybot came within a point of flipping to the short side but has now recovered.  Extreme caution is required, a market turn may be imminent. Watch SPX 1281 closely, specifically, the 12-month MA at 1280.11.

1/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/13/12; 10:26 AM EST = +36; signal line is +22

1/13/12; 10:18 AM EST = +22; signal line is +21

1/13/12; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +21

1/12/12; 11:01 AM EST = +36; signal line is +21

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after the pre-scheduled number prints minutes ago, resulting in no change to the algorithm.  Markets are experiencing early weakness and the 1285 level was lost.  Surprisinigly, this did not usher in the downside drop to test 1281 quickly, but, it is likely that price will test 1281 since 1285 was lost today.  Remember, 1281 is a critical level, if lost, the broad markets will display substantial negativity. Stay on guard.

1/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/13/12; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +21

1/12/12; 11:01 AM EST = +36; signal line is +21

1/11/12; 12:15 PM EST = +50; signal line is +20

Note Added 1/13/12 at 10:16 AM:  As the above message was posted, SPX is now testing 1281. Hold on folks, this is a major dealio right now. The market bulls will recover today if the 1281 is held.  If 1281 is lost, today will turn very ugly and Keybot may itch to make a move to the short side.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  The algorithm printed out one number today just before lunch time. The spread between the algo number and the signal line is now 15 points so it is prudent to wave the caution flag again.  The broad markets are moving sideways in a narrow range each day so the tension is building and vigilance is required.

The Farm Report today slapped wheat and corn hard so the CRB dropped under the 310 level ushering in broad market weakness.  The retail sector drifted lower on weaker than expected sales data.  Copper, however, and technology, are strong providing ample support to the broad markets.

The SPX HOD today is 1296.82 and two days ago 1296.46. Jot the 1296.80 number on the back of an envelope for reference tomorrow.  If the SPX, starting at 1295.50, moves above 1296.80, an upside acceleration occurs and 1300 should print in front of the weekend.  The market bears need to push lower and lose the 1285 handle, if so, this will usher in large block selling and an acceleration lower.  The SPX would test the ctitical 1281 level in short order and a failure here leads to sustained market downside.  A move thru 1287-1295 is sideways action.  Note that the bulls have the wind at their backs only needing a point or two to ignite an upside party.  Therefore, watch the futures to see if any green shows.

1/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/13/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/12/12; 11:01 AM EST = +36; signal line is +21

1/11/12; 12:15 PM EST = +50; signal line is +20

1/11/12; 11:02 AM EST = +36; signal line is +20

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains bullish and calmly exited the session without printing any additional numbers.  For Thursday, watch the commodities, the CRB 313.20 level.  CRB begins at 313.61 on the bull side which helps create broad market bullishness. If the CRB moves under 313.20, the broad indexes will noticeably weaken.  Copper exploded higher today, the JJC took off to the uspside like a rocket; this is the main reason for the indexes recovering to the upside today.  The China inflation data will effect copper tomorrow so observe the action in JJC.

For the SPX on Thursday, starting at 1292.48, resistance is overhead at 1292.66, then 1293.80. If the market bulls can boost the SPX only a point and one-half higher to move above 1293.80, the bull party will continue for the broad markets as the indexes accelerate higher.  Thus, if the futures are green the market bulls will be in great shape in the morning. For the market bears, if the SPX drops under 1285.50, a test of the 1281 level will come quickly.  The markets would be in serious trouble if the SPX drops under 1281. A move thru SPX 1286-1292 is sideways action. Tommorrow is nuts with the ECB rate decision, European bond auctions, China inflation data, Jobless Claims, Retail Sales and the also the 30-Year Bond Acution at 1 PM. Hang on to your hat, expect the unexpected.

1/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/13/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/11/12; 12:15 PM EST = +50; signal line is +20

1/11/12; 11:02 AM EST = +36; signal line is +20

1/11/12; 9:24 AM EST = +50; signal line is +19

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algorithm prints out four numbers thus far today. The stronger dollar is weakening commodities which helps the market bears but the copper strength is helping the bull side. SPX moves sideways so far today.

1/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/13/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/11/12; 12:15 PM EST = +50; signal line is +20

1/11/12; 11:02 AM EST = +36; signal line is +20

1/11/12; 9:24 AM EST = +50; signal line is +19

1/11/12; 8:55 AM EST = +36; signal line is +17

1/10/12; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +15

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long ahead of the Wednesday session. The algo motored along today without printing any additional numbers after the opening print. The bulls threw a wild party today, the semiconductors are up big and the copper and commodities sectors supplied much of the bull fuel today.  Both the JJC 44.70 and CRB 313.00 levels, identified by the quant as important bull-bear lines in the sand, flipped to the bull side today. Thus, the intial signs of any market weakness will likely manifest itself if you see the levels above fail. If copper and commodities remain above the levels shown, then the rally party lives on. 

The SPX poked up thru the 10/27/11 October high at 1292.66 but could not close above. SPX 1295, 1296 and 1298 all offer up strong resistance. For Wednesday, for the SPX, starting at 1292.08, the market bulls need to touch the 1296.50 level, if so, the bull party will be in full swing with accelerated market upside in progress. The market bears need to push the SPX under 1281 to start the negative momo again which represents a give back of all of todays gains.

The SPX closed above the 12-month MA which is a very bullish signal.  As fate would have it, the 12-month MA is 1281.25, thus, for market bears, 1281 is the number you want to see on Wednesday.  Bulls want to see 1296.50.  A move thru 1282-1292 is sideways action. Even though the caution flag is removed for now, the markets remain very unstable and require vigilance.

1/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/13/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/10/12; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +15

1/10/12; 8:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +14

1/9/12; 2:03 PM EST = +20; signal line is +12

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long to start the Tuesday session.  The market bulls shot the SPX up thru 1282 so the bullish acceleration occurs.  Commodities, copper and the broad indexes are moving higher on the lower dollar. The bulls are on cruise control now. Things change fast and they may change just as fast in reverse again.  The last few days the algorithm threatened to go short but stayed long and today's action shows why.

Watch copper and commodites, the JJC 44.70 and CRB 313.00 levels, respectively.  Both are above the prices shown adding bull fuel to the broad markets. Any chinks in the broad indexes' armour should first appear with these two characters falling below the levels shown.

1/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/13/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/10/12; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +15

1/10/12; 8:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +14

1/9/12; 2:03 PM EST = +20; signal line is +12

1/9/12; 10:39 AM EST = +6; signal line is +12 but algorithm says stay long

1/9/12; 10:27 AM EST = +20; signal line is +12

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant finished the day on the long side. The bulls did not have the strength to move above 1282 and signal an upside acceleration. The bears did not have the strength to move below 1273 and signal a substantial and sustainable downside move. Thus, the five or six point tight range of 1275-1281 held the entire day. The SPX closed above the 12-month MA by a few pennies which is a feather in the bulls cap.

Tomorrow we pick up where things left off.  If the SPX, starting at 1280.70, touches the 1282 handle (watch to see if the futures are a couple points on the green side overnight), the market bulls will receive strong upside acceleration. Much of today was spent at the bull end of the 1275-1281 range and that actually provides the bears an easier downside target to hit tomorrow as compared to today.  For the Tuesday session, if the SPX drops under 1274.50 (watch to see if the futures are six points on the red side overnight), the downside floodgates will open in full force. Large block sellers will slap these markets south in a sustainable bearish move down. Thus, for tomorrow, watch SPX 1282.00 and 1274.50 to see if the market bulls, or bears, respectively, win.

If the SPX drops under 1275 tomorrow, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. Use this as the rule of thumb for Tuesday's session. Markets remain unstable.

1/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

1/13/12; 10:00 AM EST =

1/9/12; 2:03 PM EST = +20; signal line is +12

1/9/12; 10:39 AM EST = +6; signal line is +12 but algorithm says stay long

1/9/12; 10:27 AM EST = +20; signal line is +12