STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long thru the weekend after the phenomenal up day Friday. The algo has never experienced such a strong move in so short a time. The algo number is 75 points above the signal line. The low volume action as the holiday approaches exacerbates such moves. The new week ahead and levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday number prints tomorrow, which serves as the month-end, quarter-end and first half of 2012 end print.

7/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/12; 1:16 PM EST = +76 signal line +1

6/29/12; 12:55 PM EST = +60 signal line -1

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long, ticking higher as the phenomenal bull move continues. The algo number has moved from -30 to +76, over 100 ticks, in a heartbeat. The algorithm has never behaved in that manner since its go live date in 2008, almost four years ago. The entire range of Keybot, since it is an oscillator at heart, is -100 to +100. The bulls are driving along with the pedal to the metal. Semi's, copper and commmodities blew threw the levels mentioned in the previous message. The bulls are cruising. The July 4th fireworks started early.

7/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/12; 1:16 PM EST = +76 signal line +1

6/29/12; 12:55 PM EST = +60 signal line -1

6/29/12; 12:49 PM EST = +44 signal line -2

6/29/12; 10:00 AM EST = +30 signal line -3

6/29/12; 9:59 AM EST = +30; signal line is -3; go long 1351; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +7.4%)(Keybot this trade = -1.3%; Keybot for 2012 = +8.1%)(Actual this trade = -2.8%; Actual for 2012 = +6.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long as this wildly bullish day continues.  Watch the previous levels listed for RTH, XLF, VIX and NYA. The markets will not move lower unless one of these four characters turn bearish. For the markets to head higher from here, the quant is now tracking semiconductors, copper and commodities with interest. Watch SOX 383 which will add additional bull fuel, now printing 382.05 as this missive is typed, only a point away.  Watch JJC 44.35, now at 44.15. Watch CRB 280.65, now a hair away. The bulls are throwing a big party today ahead of the weekend.

7/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/12; 10:00 AM EST = +30 signal line -3

6/29/12; 9:59 AM EST = +30; signal line is -3; go long 1351; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +7.4%)(Keybot this trade = -1.3%; Keybot for 2012 = +8.1%)(Actual this trade = -2.8%; Actual for 2012 = +6.4%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
6/29/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:59 AM EST at SPX 1351; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.4%; Keybot algo is up 8.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.4%. Stay alert for a whipsaw.
6/21/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 1:39 PM EST at SPX 1334; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.0%; Keybot algo is up 9.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 9.2%.
6/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:02 AM EST at SPX 1305; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 3.7%; Keybot algo is up 7.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%.
5/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:55 AM EST at SPX 1382; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 9.9%; Keybot algo is up 1.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 2.0%.
4/25/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:29 AM EST at SPX 1387; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.3%; Keybot algo is up 2.0%; Keybot actual trading is up 3.0%.
4/23/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:57 AM EST at SPX 1362; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.3%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.1%.
4/12/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:30 PM EST at SPX 1384; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.0%; Keybot algo is up 5.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.7%.
3/28/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:33 AM EST at SPX 1409, whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.0%; Keybot algo is up 3.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.2%.
3/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:18 PM EST at SPX 1412; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.2%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.5%.
3/22/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:51 AM EST at SPX 1392; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.7%; Keybot algo is up 5.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.8%.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side a short time ago at SPX 1351.  RTH, XLF, VIX and NYA all joined the bull camp. The algo was not convinced of the move at first and it took the first one-half hour of trading before the model flipped long. Stay alert for a whipsaw now thru Monday. The last trade was a loss for the quant, the program lost a percent and the actual trading lost almost 3%. The quant entered SSO on this current trade. The bulls are driving the bus now.

7/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/12; 10:00 AM EST = +30 signal line -3

6/29/12; 9:59 AM EST = +30; signal line is -3; go long 1351; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +7.4%)(Keybot this trade = -1.3%; Keybot for 2012 = +8.1%)(Actual this trade = -2.8%; Actual for 2012 = +6.4%)

6/29/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30 signal line -2 but algorithm says stay short

6/28/12; 3:54 PM EST = -14 signal line -2

6/27/12; 3:54 PM EST = -30 signal line +0

6/27/12; 3:20 PM EST = -14 signal line +2

6/27/12; 1:23 PM EST = -30 signal line +3

6/27/12; 10:01 AM EST = -14 signal line +4

6/27/12; 9:46 AM EST = -30 signal line +5

6/26/12; 12:30 PM EST = -14 signal line +6

6/26/12; 10:00 AM EST = -30 signal line +7

6/25/12; 9:30 AM EST = -30 signal line +7

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST = +0 signal line +8

6/22/12; 3:59 PM EST = +0 signal line +8

6/22/12; 3:40 PM EST = +16 signal line +8 but algorithm says stay short

6/22/12; 3:33 PM EST = +0 signal line +7

6/22/12; 2:46 PM EST = +16 signal line +6 but algorithm says stay short

6/22/12; 11:06 AM EST = +0 signal line +5

6/22/12; 10:19 AM EST = -14 signal line +4

6/22/12; 10:00 AM EST = +0 signal line +4

6/22/12; 9:52 AM EST = -16 signal line +3

6/22/12; 9:30 AM EST = +0 signal line +2

6/21/12; 1:39 PM EST = -14; signal line is +1; go short 1334; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.0%)(Keybot this trade = +2.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.4%)(Actual this trade = +1.8%; Actual for 2012 = +9.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the Friday session but the happy news from Europe shows futures markets up large. In the final minutes of yesterday's session, the algo number ticked upwards now only 12 points from the signal line. With the gains currently shown in the futures markets it is very likely that Keybot will flip to the long side at the open. The financials sector, XLF, is important and should move above the important 14.35 level the quant is currently identifying. The VIX 18.90 level is very important at the opening bell as well. Also, watch the NYA 7688 level, if the NYA moves above this will confirm that the bulls have taken over control.

For the SPX today, the 1332 level is important and the futures at this writing indicate that the bulls will blow up thru here without any trouble at all. A turn to the long side appears imminent. A pre-scheduled number prints at 10 AM and the model may already be on the long side by then. A very active open and first hour is anticipated for the algo. 

7/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/28/12; 3:54 PM EST = -14 signal line -2

6/27/12; 3:54 PM EST = -30 signal line +0

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo was active yesterday but despite the market up day, the model chugs along on the short side unimpressed. The caution flag is waving again since the quant is now fixated on four areas; retail, financials, volatility and the NYA. If two of these decide to turn bullish, the quant may be agreeable to flipping long. Watch RTH 41.29 (note that the algo bumped up this level of interest by two cents as compared to yesterday), XLF 14.35, VIX 18.90 and NYA 7688. All four are bearish creating market negativity. If any of the four turn bullish, they will create buoyancy in the broad indexes.

For the SPX today, starting at 1332, the bulls only need three tiny points, to touch the 1335 handle, and the upside will accelerate strongly. Alas, however, the futures are weak at this writing.  The bears need to push under 1321, if so, the downside will accelerate for markets. A move thru 1322-1333 is sideways action. Global markets look to the Euro Summit today and tomorrow for answers. For now, the bears continue to drive the bus. Note that the SPX is at the same level where the quant went short one week ago.

7/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/27/12; 3:54 PM EST = -30 signal line +0

6/27/12; 3:20 PM EST = -14 signal line +2

6/27/12; 1:23 PM EST = -30 signal line +3

6/27/12; 10:01 AM EST = -14 signal line +4

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The fickle retail sector, RTH, dropped under 41.27 today but then recovered, and is now printing 41.28 as this message is typed. VIX remains elevated staying in the bear camp. The SPX:VIX ratio popped above 68 a short while ago, bullish, see if this holds or if the ratio drops back under 68. Watch the RTH closely since if it loses only another penny or two, the retail sector will likely drag the broad markets lower. The quant is tracking financials, XLF. Watch XLF 14.35, now printing 14.27. The markets will accelerate higher if the XLF punches up thru 14.35. Very mixed picture today. For now, the bears remain in overall control, despite the up day. Note that the SPX sits at the 1333-1334-ish area where the current short trade was initiated by the robot.

7/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/27/12; 10:01 AM EST = -14 signal line +4

6/27/12; 9:46 AM EST = -30 signal line +5

6/26/12; 12:30 PM EST = -14 signal line +6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short to start the Wednesday session. The retail sector buoyancy handed the bulls a minor battle victory today. Watch RTH 41.27, now at 41.36, when the opening bell rings. If RTH drops under 41.27, the bears will drive the markets lower. If the RTH stays above 41.27, the bulls will continue to receive upwards market buoyancy.  Watch VIX 18.90, now at 19.72.  If VIX stays above 18.90, the bears will keep the negative pressure on the markets. If the VIX drops under 18.90, the bulls will push the markets higher.

For the SPX starting at 1320, the bulls only need four points higher, to push up and over 1324, if so, the markets will accelerate upwards. The bears need to push the SPX under 1310, ten points lower, and the markets will accelerate lower. A move thru 1311-1323 is sideways action. Watch the SPX:VIX ratio, now under 68 favoring bears. If the ratio pops above 68 this will indicate that the bulls plan on running the indexes higher. Otherwise, the bears remain in control.

7/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/26/12; 12:30 PM EST = -14 signal line +6

6/26/12; 10:00 AM EST = -30 signal line +7

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot remains short. The algo printed a number after lunch time today and the bears continue driving the bus. Watch RTH 41.27, where price popped above today which is helping to create the market buoyancy. RTH is now printing 41.42 with one-half hour of trading remaining in the session. The markets will float out sideways with an upward bias if the bulls keep RTH above 41.27. If it fails, the markets will sell off strongly. The SPX:VIX ratio is a hair under 68 which favors bears.

7/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/26/12; 12:30 PM EST = -14 signal line +6

6/26/12; 10:00 AM EST = -30 signal line +7

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The pre-scheduled number prints without any changes occurring. RTH is under 41.27 today and the VIX is above 18.90 so the bears are happy campers. Watch the SPX:VIX ratio. If it stays under 68, the bears are on easy street. Above 68 will signal a bull recovery move higher. The bears are cruising with the windows down despite the market buoyancy today thus far.

7/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/26/12; 10:00 AM EST = -30 signal line +7

6/25/12; 9:30 AM EST = -30 signal line +7

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo dropped further at yesterday's open forecasting further market weakness. The drop in the retail sector and spike higher in volatility contributed to the broad market move lower. For today, watch RTH 41.27, now at 40.99. As long as the RTH stays under 41.27, the market bears are fine, a move above and the bulls will bring positivity back into the markets.   Watch VIX 18.90, now at 20.38. As long as the VIX stays above 18.90, the bears are taking markets lower. Bulls can only move markets higher if the VIX drops under 18.90. For the bears to make further headway south, watch SPX 1292. The SPX is now at 1314 only 12 points higher. If 1292 breaks, all Hades will break loose in markets and this will surely lead to QE3.

For the SPX for today, the bulls need to touch the 1335 handle to reignite market positivity but this is a tall task. Therefore, the bulls will simply try to stop the bleeding and accomplish that if they can move the VIX below 18.90 and/or the RTH back above 41.27. The bears need to push under 1309, if so, the markets will accelerate lower, the strong 1307-1308 support will give way quickly and the SPX will move towards 1305, then the psychological 1300. 1295-1296 is the last gauntlet of strong support before the test of the important 1292 would occur where the fate of the markets would hang in the balance. A move thru 1310-1334 is sideways action.

Note that the caution flag is removed. With the algo number now 37 points under the signal line, the bears are cruising. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time.

7/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/26/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/25/12; 9:30 AM EST = -30 signal line +7

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST = +0 signal line +8

6/22/12; 3:59 PM EST = +0 signal line +8

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short to start the week. The standard Sunday number prints resulting in no change. Tech should move into a summer lull but watch the SOX 384 level, now at 378.65. The broad indexes will run a leg higher if the SOX moves above 384. Watch RTH 41.27, now at 41.41, if 41.27 fails, markets will take a strong leg lower. Watch XLF 14.35, now a penny under at 14.34, which favors the market bears by a hair. If the XLF moves above 14.35, the markets will move a leg higher. Watch VIX 18.90, now at 18.11 which creates market positivity. If the VIX moves above 18.90, the markets will take a strong leg lower. Watch NYA 7668, now at 7617 which is a market negative. Bears are happy as long as the NYA stays under 7668.

For the SPX starting at 1335, the bulls need to touch the 1338 handle which will accelerate a move higher.  The bears need to push under the 1326 level to accelerate a move lower. A move thru 1327-1336 is sideways action. 

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week, one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. Remain cautious, the bulls and bears are in the midst of a strong battle for control.

7/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/26/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST = +0 signal line +8

6/22/12; 3:59 PM EST = +0 signal line +8

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short into the weekend. The algo was very active today as the volatility, retail and financial sectors oscillated between bull and bear camps.  The bull-bear struggle continues. Note that the algo number exceeded the signal line twice this afternoon prompting the quant to flip to the long side but other internal programming rules held the robot back maintaining the bearish posture. Next week's parameters and levels of interest will be provided on Sunday after the pre-scheduled number prints.

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/22/12; 3:59 PM EST = +0 signal line +8

6/22/12; 3:40 PM EST = +16 signal line +8 but algorithm says stay short

6/22/12; 3:33 PM EST = +0 signal line +7

6/22/12; 2:46 PM EST = +16 signal line +6 but algorithm says stay short

6/22/12; 11:06 AM EST = +0 signal line +5

6/22/12; 10:19 AM EST = -14 signal line +4

6/22/12; 10:00 AM EST = +0 signal line +4

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish. Volatility is indecisive today starting out favoring the bulls but now favoring the bears. The RTH started out dropping into the bear camp but is now back in the bull camp.  Keep watching RTH 41.27, now printing 41.30. If 41.27 fails, the markets will take a strong leg lower. The VIX above 19 and moving higher will continue to create broad market negativity. The SPX:VIX ratio is printing 68.68. If 68 fails, the broad markets will make a strong move lower. If the ratio stays above 68, the markets will continue to experience buoyancy today.

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/22/12; 10:19 AM EST = -14 signal line +4

6/22/12; 10:00 AM EST = +0 signal line +4

6/22/12; 9:52 AM EST = -16 signal line +3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant prints three numbers in the early going, remaining short. VIX, XLF and RTH are providing high drama today. The bull-bear struggle continues as shown by the algo number versus signal number spread at only four ticks.

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/22/12; 10:00 AM EST = +0 signal line +4

6/22/12; 9:52 AM EST = -16 signal line +3

6/22/12; 9:30 AM EST = +0 signal line +2

6/21/12; 1:39 PM EST = -14; signal line is +1; go short 1334; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.0%)(Keybot this trade = +2.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.4%)(Actual this trade = +1.8%; Actual for 2012 = +9.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the Friday session. Today we find out if the algorithm wants to whipsaw back to the long side, or not. The Moody's bank downgrades were anti-climactic so the XLF may recover. Watch XLF 14.35. Other levels of interest to the quant are VIX 19, NYA 7666 and SOX 384. All four of these parameters are bearish to start the day. Any changes back to the bull side are important.  Watch RTH 41.27. RTH closed at 41.28. If the RTH loses the 41.27 level, the markets will take another strong leg lower. If RTH stays above 41.27 it indicates that the market down move is stalling and the bulls are gathering strength.

For the SPX starting at 1325.51, just under the critical 1326 support/resistance level, the bears only need to push one single point lower, to move under 1324.50, and the market downside will accelerate lower, much lower if the RTH gives way as described above. The bulls are simply trying to stop the bleeding and will accomplish that by keeping the RTH bullish and bringing the XLF, VIX and others back into the bull camp.

One of the programming rules for Keybot monitors for a 1% backwards move, after a turn, within the first 24 hours after the turn.  The turn to the bear side occurred at 1334, thus, 1347-ish (1334+13.34 = 1347.34) is an important level for the quant to consider, should it print today, and could lead to a whipsaw back to the long side. XLF, RTH and VIX are likely the three most important items to watch at the opening bell. Markets remain unstable. Caution is warranted.

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/21/12; 1:39 PM EST = -14; signal line is +1; go short 1334; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.0%)(Keybot this trade = +2.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.4%)(Actual this trade = +1.8%; Actual for 2012 = +9.2%)

6/21/12; 1:31 PM EST = -14 signal line +0 but algorithm says stay long

6/21/12; 12:21 PM EST = +2 signal line -1

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
6/21/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 1:39 PM EST at SPX 1334; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.0%; Keybot algo is up 9.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 9.2%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.
6/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:02 AM EST at SPX 1305; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 3.7%; Keybot algo is up 7.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%.
5/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:55 AM EST at SPX 1382; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 9.9%; Keybot algo is up 1.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 2.0%.
4/25/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:29 AM EST at SPX 1387; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.3%; Keybot algo is up 2.0%; Keybot actual trading is up 3.0%.
4/23/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:57 AM EST at SPX 1362; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.3%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.1%.
4/12/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:30 PM EST at SPX 1384; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.0%; Keybot algo is up 5.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.7%.
3/28/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:33 AM EST at SPX 1409, whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.0%; Keybot algo is up 3.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.2%.
3/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:18 PM EST at SPX 1412; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.2%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.5%.
3/22/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:51 AM EST at SPX 1392; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.7%; Keybot algo is up 5.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.8%.
3/8/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:04 PM at SPX 1364; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.4%; Keybot algo is up 3.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at 1:39 PM at SPX 1334.  The financials sector failed. Fear over the Moody's downgrade today of financials is increasing. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw today or tomorrow. The trade over the last two weeks yielded a couple percent. The quant has reinstated the 2x ETF's and is now short via SDS. 

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/21/12; 1:39 PM EST = -14; signal line is +1; go short 1334; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.0%)(Keybot this trade = +2.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.4%)(Actual this trade = +1.8%; Actual for 2012 = +9.2%)

6/21/12; 1:31 PM EST = -14 signal line +0 but algorithm says stay long

6/21/12; 12:21 PM EST = +2 signal line -1

6/21/12; 12:03 PM EST = +16 signal line -2

6/21/12; 11:53 AM EST = +30 signal line -3

6/21/12; 11:34 AM EST = +16 signal line -5

6/21/12; 9:42 AM EST = +30 signal line -6

6/20/12; 12:44 PM EST = +46 signal line -8

6/20/12; 11:52 AM EST = +32 signal line -10

6/19/12; 9:59 AM EST = +46 signal line -13

6/19/12; 9:52 AM EST = +30 signal line -15

6/19/12; 9:30 AM EST = +14 signal line -17

6/19/12; 9:00 AM EST = +0 signal line -18

6/18/12; 2:46 PM EST = +0 signal line -19

6/18/12; 2:14 PM EST = +14 signal line -19

6/18/12; 2:11 PM EST = +0 signal line -20

6/18/12; 9:30 AM EST = -14 signal line -21

6/17/12; 7:00 PM EST = +0 signal line -21

6/15/12; 3:55 PM EST = +0 signal line -22

6/15/12; 10:00 AM EST = -14 signal line -22

6/14/12; 9:30 AM EST = -14 signal line -23

6/13/12; 2:59 PM EST = -30 signal line -24 but algorithm says stay long

6/10/12; 7:00 PM EST = -14 signal line -23

6/6/12; 11:02 AM EST = -14; signal line is -23; go long 1305; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +3.7%)(Keybot this trade = +5.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +7.2%)(Actual this trade = +5.4%; Actual for 2012 = +7.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but the markets are changing quickly. The bulls are giving up the ghost. The algo is very active this morning and note that the algo number is now within 3 points of the signal line which would indicate a preference for Keybot to flip to the short side.  If watching today, you see the failures in NYA, VIX and SOX mentioned in this mornings missive.  Right now, the financials, XLF, are holding up the ship, barely.  XLF is printing 14.36. The quant is focused on 14.35 only a penny lower.  If the XLF remains under the 14.35 for seven to ten minutes continuously, Keybot will be on the verge of going short the markets, so watch this closely. The caution flag is out again, the bull fun is over. The bulls and bears are fighting it out right now. Moody's is anticipated to release news on bank downgrades today which may determine the fate of the markets since XLF will immediately react. Stay alert, a market turn may be imminent.

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/21/12; 12:21 PM EST = +2 signal line -1

6/21/12; 12:03 PM EST = +16 signal line -2

6/21/12; 11:53 AM EST = +30 signal line -3

6/21/12; 11:34 AM EST = +16 signal line -5

6/21/12; 9:42 AM EST = +30 signal line -6

6/20/12; 12:44 PM EST = +46 signal line -8

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long to start the Thursday session. The algo idled along yesterday, thru the tumoil, printing two numbers that only resulted in a stutter step move.  The bulls are cruising along without a care.  For any initial cracks in the bull foundation, watch NYA 7671, VIX 18.90, SOX 384.00 and XLF 14.35. These four items are of key interest to the algorithm currently and causing bullish buoyancy. Watch to see if any of the four turn bearish, if so, the markets will weaken.

For the SPX today starting at 1357, the bulls need to push the SPX above 1361.50 and the upside will accelerate. The bears need to push below 1346.50 and the downside will accelerate.  A move thru 1348-1356 is sideways action.

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/20/12; 12:44 PM EST = +46 signal line -8

6/20/12; 11:52 AM EST = +32 signal line -10

6/19/12; 9:59 AM EST = +46 signal line -13

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long and the algorithm is cruising on the bull side; the algo number far above the signal line. Any initial cracks in the bull party would first form if the semiconductors give up their bullish move from yesterday.  Watch SOX 384.00, now at 384.94. If 384 fails, then the bears are fighting back, otherwise, the bulls have their feet up on the desk with no worries. Also watch NYA 7671, now at 7766; XLF 14.35, now at 14.50; and VIX 18.90, now 18.38 (which is bullish for markets-volatility moves inversely to markets). All four items above are creating the market positivity and are currently being tracked by Keybot as the main real-time influences on the broad indexes. The utilities, UTIL, were negative yesterday. Watch the utes closely moving forward since any large market down move typically begins with the utes weakening.

For the SPX today starting at strong S/R at 1358, the bulls need to push five and one-half points higher to keep the party alive. If the bulls touch 1363.50, another strong up leg will occur for the broad indexes.  The bears are simply trying to stop the upside momo and will focus on pushing one or more of the four items listed above to the negative side. If the bears can push the SPX under 1345, a strong accelerated move to the downside will occur for markets. A move thru 1346-1362 is sideways action today.

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/19/12; 9:59 AM EST = +46 signal line -13

6/19/12; 9:52 AM EST = +30 signal line -15

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long and very active this week thus far printing eight numbers since Sunday.  The bulls came to play today. The NYA exploded up over 7668. The VIX is under 18. The SOX moves above 383.50 triggering more bull fuel. Use SOX 384 as the level to watch moving forward.  The XLF moved above 14.43 adding more positivity; use the 14.35 level to watch moving forward. The SPX blew thru 1348, then thru 1351, now testing critical resistance at 1358. The algo number is now 59 points above the signal line and for the first time in quite a while, Keybot is removing the caution flag. The bulls are cruising obviously looking for quantitative easing from Chairman Bernanke.

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/19/12; 9:59 AM EST = +46 signal line -13

6/19/12; 9:52 AM EST = +30 signal line -15

6/19/12; 9:30 AM EST = +14 signal line -17

6/19/12; 9:00 AM EST = +0 signal line -18

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after the pre-scheduled number prints. The algo number did not change but the signal line bumped upwards by one point. Watch NYA 7668 (now bearish), VIX 18.90-ish (now bullish) and SOX 383.50 (now bearish). Bulls will run above SPX 1348; bears will fight to prevent 1348.

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/19/12; 9:00 AM EST = +0 signal line -18

6/18/12; 2:46 PM EST = +0 signal line -19

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Yesterday saw a battle for the NYA 40-week MA at 7668 and that battle will continue today. Volatility, VIX, dropped yesterday and this places a feather in the bulls cap. Watch VIX 18.90-ish level, now below at 18.32, which is bullish for markets. This is an important development so watch VIX 18.90-ish today. The bulls can bust the upside wide open right now. Watch SOX 383.50, the semiconductors, now at 380.55, only three points under. If the bulls push SOX above 383.50 another leg up will occur for the markets.  Watch XLF 14.43, now at 14.26. If the financials move above 14.43, another further leg upwards will launch for the broad indexes.

Thus, the markets are favoring the bulls these days. If the market bears want to prevent the upside from getting out of hand, they must keep the NYA under 7668 and push the VIX back above 18.90-ish. For the SPX today starting at 1345, the bulls need to see three green points, to punch thru 1348, and the markets will accelerate upwards. The bears need to push the SPX down to drop under 1334.50, if so, the markets will accelerate downwards.  A move thru 1336-1347 is sideways action. The bears need to make a move today otherwise the bulls are going to run much higher.

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/19/12; 9:00 AM EST =

6/18/12; 2:46 PM EST = +0 signal line -19

6/18/12; 2:14 PM EST = +14 signal line -19

6/18/12; 2:11 PM EST = +0 signal line -20

6/18/12; 9:30 AM EST = -14 signal line -21

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The NYA dropped under the 40-week MA at the open empowering the bears but a few minutes ago the bulls pushed price back above this critical moving average.  After four minutes, the NYA failed again. Watch the NYA 40-week MA at 7668, price is now printing 7652 only 16 points away.  XLF is at 14.34; the 14.43 level will usher in a new bullish leg higher. Bears need to weaken the NYA immediately, otherwise, the bulls will continue the market buoyancy moving forward. Note that the markets remain a bull-bear struggle with the algo number only seven points away from the signal line.

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/19/12; 9:00 AM EST =

6/18/12; 9:30 AM EST = -14 signal line -21

6/17/12; 7:00 PM EST = +0 signal line -21

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to start the new trading week. The Greece election drama will obviously dictate market behavior so watch the Sunday evening futures markets tonight for an early read.  As mentioned in the prior message, the NYA moving above the 40-week MA is a very big and bullish deal. The problem is that it occurred in the last few minutes of trading with a short-covering rally ahead of the Greece vote, not yet inspiring complete confidence. Thus, Monday will tell the true tale with the NYA which will dramatically affect markets moving forward.  If the NYA stays above 7660, the market bulls will continue a strong rally upward and onward moving forward. If the NYA drops under 7660, the bears will reignite market negativity.

Continue monitoring RTH 41.10 if the markets surprise to the downside. For markets to continue upwards, the financials must cooperate next.  Watch XLF 14.43, now at 14.34, only nine pennies away from launching another large leg higher for the broad markets. Of course the bears will try to prevent XLF 14.43 with all their might.

For the SPX starting at 1343, the market bulls only need to see a smidge of green in the futures overnight tonight and the broad indexes will launch on Monday. The bears must prevent this from occurring, but, of course it all hinges on Greece. A move thru SPX 1330-1343 is sideways action for Monday. The high volatility is causing wild market spikes. Late last week Keybot was on the verge of flipping back to the short side but now the bulls are continuing to run strong. Expect more erratic market action. Keybot prints only one pre-scheduled number this week at 9 AM Tuesday morning.  In a nutshell, NYA 7660, XLF 14.43 and SPX 1343 will tell the story for Monday's trade. Stay cautious. It's all in Greece's hands.

6/24/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/19/12; 9:00 AM EST =

6/17/12; 7:00 PM EST = +0 signal line -21

6/15/12; 3:55 PM EST = +0 signal line -22

Note Added 6/18/12 at 4:39 AM EST:  The Greece elections voted pro euro and pro bailout. The S&P futures bounced ten points but as of about one-half hour ago dipped negative. At this writing the futures are now down 6 points, thus, a 16-point swing to the bear side occurs after the initial pop from the election.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long into the weekend.  A short-covering rally occurred in the last few minutes of trading Friday. This is important since the NYA moved above the 40-week MA at 7660 which is very bullish. The nature of the move, however, in the final minutes, on a short-covering bounce, does not immediately provide street cred for the bulls but if the NYA stays above 7660 all day Monday, that will.

The bulls are gaining momo due to the talk of global quantitative easing coming. Financials will play an important role next week and the quant is already scanning XLF with interest. Next week's areas of interest can be identified after the pre-scheduled Sunday number prints tomorrow. The caution flag would typically be removed since the bulls are running now, 22 points above the signal line, but, considering the importance of the Greece election results tomorrow, which may surprise bulls and bears alike, the caution flag remains out. 

6/17/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/15/12; 3:55 PM EST = +0 signal line -22

6/15/12; 10:00 AM EST = -14 signal line -22

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after the pre-scheduled number prints.  RTH is near 42 placing smiles on bulls faces.  The bulls also grabbed 1334 so an upward move is occurring with price now testing 1337 resistance. Tech is not leading the broad markets higher so this does not provide the bulls with as much oomph as they would like.  The NYA is 7631 with a HOD at 7636; the bulls need to see 7660, so close, but no cigar yet. If the NYA punches thru 7660, the markets will launch large. For now, the SPX continues to struggle to move up thru 1337. Stay alert and cautious.

6/17/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/15/12; 10:00 AM EST = -14 signal line -22

6/14/12; 9:30 AM EST = -14 signal line -23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to start the Friday session. Continue watching the RTH 41.10 level which now has price well above creating broad market positivity. The bulls can push the markets another leg higher if the NYA 40-week MA at 7659 is taken out to the upside. NYA starts the day at 7583 only 76 points away.  For the SPX, starting at 1329, the bulls only need touch the 1334 handle and the markets will accelerate higher. The bears need to push the SPX under 1314 and the markets will accelerate to the downside.  A move thru 1316-1332 is sideways behavior today. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time.

6/17/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/15/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/14/12; 9:30 AM EST = -14 signal line -23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Thursday session is underway. The RTH popped above 41.10 at the bell so the bulls came to play today.  The SPX LOD so far is 1314.14 about four points above the 1310.50 danger level for today. Thus, the bulls are cruising again. RTH  is now printing 41.29. There is a long day ahead, however, and the markets are highly volatile, stay alert.

6/15/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/14/12; 9:30 AM EST = -14 signal line -23

6/13/12; 2:59 PM EST = -30 signal line -24 but algorithm says stay long

6/10/12; 7:00 PM EST = -14 signal line -23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the smoke clears from an interesting day. The RTH failure is a big feather in the bear's cap.  The same set-up occurs tomorrow. At the opening bell watch to see if the RTH, now at 40.97, stays under 41.10, or not. If the RTH stays under 41.10, and the SPX drops under 1310.50, Keybot will likley go short, so tomorrow may provide some drama. The market bulls need to touch the 1327 handle to signal the all-clear for an upside market acceleration. A move thru 1312-1326 is sideways action. A turn may be imminent, the key focus at the open is RTH 41.10 and SPX 1310.50, that will tell you what you need to know.

6/15/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/13/12; 2:59 PM EST = -30 signal line -24 but algorithm says stay long

6/10/12; 7:00 PM EST = -14 signal line -23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but the retail sector, RTH, failed at 3 PM positioning Keybot to move to the short side. There are other programming rules holding it back, one key level the quant needs to see to flip short is 1307, so watch that into the close.

6/15/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/13/12; 2:59 PM EST = -30 signal line -24 but algorithm says stay long

6/10/12; 7:00 PM EST = -14 signal line -23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long, idling along this week without printing any numbers thus far. This morning provided excitement with the RTH coming down to tap on the 41.08-ish, while the SPX punched under the 1308, both identified by the quant ahead of time, which resulted in a bounce. Thus, the markets are moving sideways. For tomorrow, Wednesday, the bears need to push the RTH from the current print at 41.51 down to 41.10, if so, the markets will take a large leg lower. If not, the bears got nothing. Retail Sales hit at 8:30 AM EST and will decide the fate of the RTH which in turn will decide the fate of the markets.

The bulls need to push the NYA from the current print at 7558 up thru 7658 (40-week MA), exactly 100 points, to ignite a large bull rally. If not, the bulls got nothing.  If the RTH remains above 41.10, and the NYA remains below 7658, neither side wants the ball and the broad indexes will continue along sideways. For the SPX starting at 1324, the bulls only need to see the slightest hint of green in the futures and the markets will accelerate higher at the opening bell. The PPI and Retail Sales data will be key in the morning.  Any print above 1324 will carry the markets higher.  The bears need to push the SPX all the way back down to those 1307-ish lows from today to reignite the strong bearishness. If the SPX drops under 1307, the 1300 level will come quickly. The markets are moving in a sideways range for several days between 1307-1326 so watch these levels to see which side price exits.  A move thru 1308-1323 is sideways action. If the RTH fails, and the SPX moves down towards 1307, the quant will be very close to flipping short. Otherwise, the bulls are driving the bus.

6/17/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/15/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/10/12; 7:00 PM EST = -14 signal line -23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Yesterday was set up for the bulls, and they ran in the opening minutes but quickly stumbled as the markets cascaded lower from the 1336 high to the 1309 close, a 27 point intraday drop.  The interesting aspect is that the retail sector, RTH, that continues to be a major focus of the quant, sold off but not far enough to prompt Keybot to move to the short side. Watch RTH 41.08, now at 41.17. If 41.08 is lost, Keybot will be on the verge of flipping short. The utilities rolled over as well yesterday. Pay attention to UTIL since if the utes start to lead the market lower, that means a serious down trend is taking shape for markets.

For the SPX starting at 1309, the bears have the easier road since price closed near the lows. If the bears can push the SPX under 1308, the markets will accelerate lower to likely test 1300.  More importantly, if the RTH drops under 41.08, and the SPX drops under 1308, Keybot will be moving to the short side if not already there.  The bulls will try to stop the downside momo by preventing the RTH from losing 41.08 with all their might. A move thru SPX 1309-1333 is sideways action today. To add more drama, Retail Sales data is released tomorrow, Wednesday, which will decide the fate of RTH.  The caution flag remains out in these treacherous markets. Keybot did not print any numbers yesterday despite all the bearish market action.

6/17/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/15/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/10/12; 7:00 PM EST = -14 signal line -23

6/6/12; 11:02 AM EST = -14; signal line is -23; go long 1305; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +3.7%)(Keybot this trade = +5.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +7.2%)(Actual this trade = +5.4%; Actual for 2012 = +7.4%)

Note Added 6/12/12 at 11:20 AM:  High drama today as the RTH dropped lower and the SPX tested 1308, dropping under but only for three minutes. Ratchet up the RTH level of interest to 41.10. RTH is now printing 41.45 well above providing the bulls some street cred.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to begin the new week of trading. The markets are at the mercy of Euro news and the Spain bailout will play a key role in Monday's trade.  The SPX begins trading at 1326, a very strong S/R area. Since the SPX closed at the highs on Friday, all that is needed for the bulls is to see a tiny smidge of green in the overnight futures and an upside market acceleration will occur.  SPX 1326 will lead to 1331 and 1333 resistance, then 1337 R, then the 1350's if the bulls are running. The market bears will try to stop the upside momo and that would begin by keeping the futures red. A move thru SPX 1308-1325 is sideways action.

In addition, watch RTH 41, now at 41.68, which creates market bullishness. Watch UTIL 453.75, now at 478.48, which also creates market bullishness. If the markets jump higher on happy Spain bailout news, watch the NYA 40-week MA at 7645. The NYA closed at 7554 about 90 points below. If the NYA takes out 7645 to the upside it is a game-changer, the bears will be in for serious pain since the SPX will be running towards the 1350's.

6/17/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/15/12; 10:00 AM EST =

6/10/12; 7:00 PM EST = -14 signal line -23

6/6/12; 11:02 AM EST = -14; signal line is -23; go long 1305; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +3.7%)(Keybot this trade = +5.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +7.2%)(Actual this trade = +5.4%; Actual for 2012 = +7.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. RTH stayed above 41 from the opening bell and never looked back, traveling higher all day long adding bull fuel for the markets, and closing at 41.66. The SPX dropped thru 1313 so this created the downside acceleration to 1307 as projected but with the RTH above 41, the bulls were in control and ran the markets higher the rest of the day.  Bulls need to push thru the NYA 40-week MA to push markets another leg higher but fell short of that goal.  The potential Spain bailout has long traders salivating over an easy money market pump. The two parameters above remain important for next week.  The parameters to watch for Monday will be posted once the standard Sunday print occurs tomorrow.

6/10/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/6/12; 11:02 AM EST = -14; signal line is -23; go long 1305; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +3.7%)(Keybot this trade = +5.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +7.2%)(Actual this trade = +5.4%; Actual for 2012 = +7.4%)