STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long going into the Wednesday Fed day. The algo printed one number before the close and the standard pre-scheduled month-end number printed a short time ago. The upside has been held back this week by the JJC not moving above 44.20. Copper was the major sector that did not participate in the market move higher and the doctor typically leads.  Today, the bears flexed their muscles pushing the VIX above 18.80. Watch this closely tomorrow as the opening bell rings.

The algorithm may be close to flipping short; tomorrow may be an exciting day. The VIX moving above 18.80, which signals market bearishness, may signal the start of market trouble moving forward.  Other areas and levels of interest the quant is tracking are SOX 376 (now at 384 causing market bullishness), RTH 42.15 (now at 42.88 causing market bullishness), XLF 14.45 (now at 14.66 causing market bullishness, VIX 18.80 (now at 18.93 causing market bearishness) and NYA 7760 (now at 7860 causing market bullishness). Any changes to these parameters will push the broad indexes in that respective direction.  If two or more of the bullish parameters move to the bear camp, it is very likely that Keybot the Quant will flip to the short side, so stay on guard tomorrow.

For the SPX starting at 1379, the bears have the momo since they closed the SPX at the lows.  Any little smidge of red in the futures overnight will create a downside acceleration at the open. The bulls need to touch the 1387 handle to accelerate the upside.  A move thru 1380-1386 is sideways action.  Pay close attention to SPX 1379 and VIX 18.80.  Extreme caution is warranted.

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/3/12; 9:00 AM EST =

7/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +46; signal line is +27

7/31/12; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +27

7/31/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +26

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant motors along on the long side.  The pre-scheduled number prints without any changes.  JJC remains below 44.20 favoring bears. SOX remains above 376 favoring bulls. The quant is focused on the VIX as the current arbiter of market direction.  Note how the VIX came up to test the 17.75-17.80 called out this morning and received a spank down, the bulls not willing to relinquish control.  The VIX is now printing 18.57; the bears need 23 cents higher to start pushing the markets lower. The bears need to push under 1381 to accelerate the market downside but the SPX bounced off the 1381 handle thus far today.  If 1381 fails, that will likely be in concert with the VIX moving up thru 18.80. Otherwise, the bulls maintain control of the markets.

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/3/12; 9:00 AM EST =

7/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

7/31/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +26

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +26

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo idled along all day Monday without printing any numbers. The market bulls could not move higher since JJC remains under 44.20. Watch SOX 376.00, now at 380.61 creating market bullishness.  Watch VIX 18.80, now at 18.03 creating market bullishness. The bulls need JJC over 44.20 to move markets higher; the bears need SOX under 376 and/or VIX over 18.80 to ignite a strong downside move. Otherwise, markets will stumble sideways. Also watch XLF 14.45.

For the SPX starting at 1385, the bulls need to touch the 1392 handle to create an upside market acceleration. The 1391 level is strong resistance.  The bears need to push the SPX under 1381, only four points lower, to create a downside acceleration.  A move thru 1382-1391 is sideways action today. A pre-scheduled number prints at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time.

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/3/12; 9:00 AM EST =

7/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

7/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +26

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +26

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the new week of trading is set to begin.  Last week began with the markets tumbling to the bear side on Monday but then catapulting higher to the bull side later in the week. The bulls need copper to cooperate for the markets to continue higher. Copper not yet participating places the entire rally in question.  Watch JJC 44.20, now creating market negativity at 43.47. If the bulls push JJC up over 44.20, the SPX is on its way over 1400.  The market bears must prevent JJC 44.20 with all their might.

The algorithm is focused on several other areas currently. Watch CRB 293, now at 299, since copper and commodities move together, along with the euro, and opposite the dollar. Thus, a higher dollar favors the bears and will push JJC and CRB lower.  A lower dollar will favor the market bulls and push JJC, CRB and the broad indexes higher.  The NYA breaking up and thru the 40-week MA at 7760 is a major bullish development. The bulls are in control of the markets if the NYA, now at 7912, remains above 7760.  Watch the financials, XLF 14.45, now affecting markets positively at 14.76 and semiconductors, SOX 375.30, now affecting the markets positively at 384.23. Copper, the JJC, however, is the key to the markets moving forward.

For the SPX for Monday starting at 1386, the bulls only need three points, to push up thru 1389, and the wild upside acceleration orgy will continue. SPX 1391 is very strong resistance but it would likely fold like a cheap suit with the SPX heading towards 1400 plus.  The bears are trying to stop the upside momo by keeping JJC down and pushing the CRB, NYA, XLF and SOX lower.  Bears need to drop under the strong SPX 1366 support level to restart any market negativity. A move thru 1367-1388 in Monday's trade should  be considered sideways action.  The bulls are driving the bus and need copper to cooperate to seal the deal. Extreme caution is required despite the algo number sitting 34 points above the signal line since the markets remain erratic and unstable. Watch the overnight futures tonight to see if there are three or more green points, if so, the bulls plan on running towards 1400, if not, the bears will breathe a tiny sigh of relief. Keybot prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week; two on Tuesday and one on Friday morning.

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/3/12; 9:00 AM EST =

7/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

7/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +26

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +26

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long thru the weekend. The markets went south early in the week with the bears in firm control.  As the markets were beginning to roll over, the Fed and ECB central bankers performed the stick save, catapulting markets out of the duldrums on their talk of stimulus and easing. Now the bulls are in firm control without a worry. Well, perhaps one major worry.  Copper did not participate in the fun and the quant is fixated on this as a major area of interest.  JJC will play a pivotal role next week. Markets cannot move higher unless copper provides the blessing. Copper and commodities move up if the dollar moves down and euro up.  If the euro moves down, the dollar will move up and copper and commodities will drop. Areas and levels of interest can be identified for next week's trading once the pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow. The caution flag remains out; the markets remain erratic, unstable and require close monitoring.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +26

7/27/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long. The algo prints two numbers to begin the Friday session, one is the pre-scheduled number. The market bulls are in firm control now. The XLF is above 14.45, SOX above 375.30, and NYA jumped above 7756. The bears will not experience any downside unless one of these three characters turn bearish. Copper continues to lag and not yet participate in the bull rally.  This is odd considering that Dr. Copper is always the market leader. Caution is warranted.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +26

7/27/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +25

7/26/12; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +24

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

The sideways bull-bear struggle continues. Look at the turns over the last two months, bull to bear and back again in short order reflecting churn thru the 1310-1380 zone, a very tricky trading environment.

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
7/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1349; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.2%; Keybot algo is up 9.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.4%. Stay alert for a whipsaw.
7/23/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1348; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.2%; Keybot algo is up 9.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.8%.
7/13/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:38 AM EST at SPX 1342; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.7%; Keybot algo is up 9.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.8%.
7/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:57 AM EST at SPX 1354; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.6%; Keybot algo is up 8.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.9%.
6/29/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:59 AM EST at SPX 1351; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.4%; Keybot algo is up 8.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.4%.
6/21/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 1:39 PM EST at SPX 1334; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.0%; Keybot algo is up 9.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 9.2%.
6/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:02 AM EST at SPX 1305; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 3.7%; Keybot algo is up 7.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%.
5/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:55 AM EST at SPX 1382; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 9.9%; Keybot algo is up 1.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 2.0%.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the smoke continues to clear after a circus of a day.  The algo was very active today printing twelve numbers. The market bulls gathered further strength into the close.  NYA punched up thru the level of interest at 7756.53 but in the final minute closes under by a smidge at 7754.51.  The NYA 7756.53 will immediately dictate broad market direction at tomorrow's opening bell. Copper has not bought into the rally as yet. Watch XLF 14.45, now at 14.48 influencing the markets positively. XLF 14.45 will dictate market direction at the opening bell. The third item the quant is fixated on is the semiconductors, SOX 375.30, now at 375.54 influencing the markets positively. SOX 375.30 will dictate market direction at the opening bell.

For the SPX starting at 1360, the bulls need to touch 1363 and an upside acceleration party will occur with price immediately attacking the strong 1366 resistance level and likely moving up and through.  The bears will simply try to stop the upside momo by keeping NYA bearish and forcing XLF and SOX to the bear side as described above.  A move thru 1340-1362 is sideways action for Friday. Exercise caution moving forward. Bulls will win tomorrow if they move the NYA higher. Bears will win if they move the XLF and SOX lower. The pre-scheduled number prints at 10 AM EST so the market action can be updated at that time.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/26/12; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +24

7/26/12; 3:38 PM EST = +60; signal line is +25

7/26/12; 3:26 PM EST = +46; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the session nears the end.  Two more numbers print showing the bulls running higher.  XLF is above 14.45 and SOX is above 375.30 so the markets float higher.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/26/12; 3:26 PM EST = +46; signal line is +24

7/26/12; 2:53 PM EST = +30; signal line is +25

7/26/12; 2:14 PM EST = +14; signal line is +25 but algorithm says stay long

7/26/12; 1:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long and the algo remains active today printing a couple more numbers. The financials, XLF, are dictating the market direction currently; keep watching XLF 14.45. Note that the algo already wants to flip back to the short side but other metrics have not fallen into place as yet, so the bulls continue driving the bus. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/26/12; 2:14 PM EST = +14; signal line is +25 but algorithm says stay long

7/26/12; 1:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26

7/26/12; 11:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +27 but algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo has printed six numbers thus far today.  Note that the XLF is under 14.45 and SOX is under 375.30 which causes the markets to leak lower.  Pay close attention to RTH 41.90, now at 42.08, and VIX 18.70, now at 18.45.  Keybot will likely whipsaw back to the short side if either the RTH or VIX turns bearish. Stay extremely cautious in this erratic market environment.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/26/12; 11:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +27 but algorithm says stay long

7/26/12; 11:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27

7/26/12; 11:06 AM EST = +14; signal line is +27 but algorithm says stay long

7/26/12; 10:43 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27

7/26/12; 9:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +28

7/26/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +28; go long 1349; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +7.2%)(Keybot this trade = -0.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.6%)(Actual this trade = -3.4%; Actual for 2012 = +5.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flipped long at the opening bell at SPX 1349, the upside fueled by a strong retail sector, financials and lower volatility.  Shortly thereafter, the semiconductors joined the bullish fun. Interestingly, however, the NYA came up to the 7750 and received a smack down and copper remains weak as well. Moving forward, the caution flag stays out since this rally move is an upside short-covering orgy bounce. The markets will need time to sort thru the excitement. The quant is tracking XLF right now with extreme interest. Watch XLF 14.45.  The bulls will keep the markets buoyant if they keep the XLF above 14.45, if not, markets will begin drifting lower. Also watch the SOX 375.30 level as currently identified by the algo.  Above 375.30 and markets will remain buoyant.  If the SOX falls under 375.30, the broad indexes will leak lower.

For the last trade, the algorithm program was flat, with no consequence, but the actual trading execution suffered a 3.4% loss via DXD. This is due to timing issues and the fact that the Monday drop, and today's pop, both occurred at the opening bells which taxes the ETF positions creating large gaps. Remain very cautious. Markets are unstable and erratic. This move today is a very strong candidate for a whipsaw move either today or tomorrow, or at Monday's opening bell.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/26/12; 9:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +28

7/26/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +28; go long 1349; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +7.2%)(Keybot this trade = -0.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.6%)(Actual this trade = -3.4%; Actual for 2012 = +5.4%)

7/24/12; 11:59 AM EST = -16; signal line is +28

7/24/12; 9:30 AM EST = +0; signal line is +30

7/23/12; 3:25 PM EST = +14; signal line is +31

7/23/12; 3:07 PM EST = +0; signal line is +31

7/23/12; 1:32 PM EST = +14; signal line is +31

7/23/12; 1:16 PM EST = +0; signal line is +30

7/23/12; 1:08 PM EST = +14; signal line is +29

7/23/12; 10:42 AM EST = +0; signal line is +28

7/23/12; 9:30 AM EST = -16; signal line is +28; go short 1348; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +7.2%)(Keybot this trade = +0.5%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.7%)(Actual this trade = +0.0%; Actual for 2012 = +8.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short and idled along all day without printing any numbers, unimpressed by today's market action.  The market bears need to drop the CRB under 293 to create another leg lower. The bulls must send the RTH back above 41.90 or the VIX under 18.75 if they expect to mount a recovery rally.

For the SPX starting at 1338, the bulls need to touch the 1344 handle to ignite an upside market acceleration.  The bears need to push under 1331.50 and a downside acceleration will occur.  A move thru 1333-1343 is sideways action.The bears are cruising. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/24/12; 11:59 AM EST = -16; signal line is +28

7/24/12; 9:30 AM EST = +0; signal line is +30

Note Added 7/26/12 at 9:08 AM EST:  Overnight is a lifetime in trading.  The markets were rolling over this morning when Draghi (ECB) stepped in announcing that he will do whatever is necessary to support the euro.  The futures markets are catapulting higher on news of stimulus coming, and the short-covering will provide further fuel for a strong move higher. Keybot may turn to the long side.  Use RTH 41.90, XLF 14.45, SOX 374, JJC 44.20, NYA 7753 and VIX 18.70 to determine market direction after the intial pop.  If three of these six parameters flip to the bull side, Keybot will likely flip to the long side. Lots of excitment is on tap. A turn may be imminent and occur after the open.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short ahead of the Wednesday session.  AAPL missed earnings estimates after the close this evening and will create market negativity tomorrow. Today, the VIX immediately moved above 18.68, followed by the RTH losing 41.90, so this potent bear fuel sent the broad indexes lower.  For Wednesday, watch RTH 41.90, now at 41.86, bearish, but only by a smidge. Markets will continue selling off if the RTH stays under 41.90. If the RTH moves above 41.90, the markets will recover.  Watch CRB 293.00, now bullish at 296.37.  If the CRB loses 293 tomorrow morning, the broad markets will take another leg lower.

For the SPX starting at 1338, the bears need to drop below 1329 to create an acceleration move downwards. This is a drop of about nine points so watch the futures overnight especially in light of the AAPL debacle. The bulls are simply trying to stop the bleeding by preventing the nine point drop in the SPX while moving the RTH back above 41.90.  A move thru SPX 1331-1350 is sideways action. Note that the caution flag was rolled up and put away.  The difference between the algo number and the signal line is 44 points so the market bears are cruising along without a care in the world, enjoying a cigar, with their feet up on the dashboard.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/24/12; 11:59 AM EST = -16; signal line is +28

7/24/12; 9:30 AM EST = +0; signal line is +30

7/23/12; 3:25 PM EST = +14; signal line is +31

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short. The algo printed a couple more numbers in the afternoon.  The bull-bear struggle continues and tomorrow's market direction will be decided by the VIX, volatility, at the opening bell.  The VIX closed at 18.62. If the VIX stays under 18.68, the bulls will continue the upward buoyancy. If the VIX moves above 18.68, the bears will reignite the market downside. Watch RTH 41.90 (now bullish) and NYA 7754 (now bearish). Any change to these two parameters will send the markets in that respective direction.

For the SPX starting at 1351, the bears need to drop under 1338 to accelerate the downside while the bulls need 1362 to accelerate the upside.  Each side requires a 12 handle move. A move thru 1339-1361 is sideways action. Caution is required since Keybot may whipsaw. Use VIX 18.68 as an instantaneous read on the broad indexes at the opening bell. If RTH drop under 41.90, the bears will move markets lower. If the NYA moves above 7754, the markets will be moving much higher.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/23/12; 3:25 PM EST = +14; signal line is +31

7/23/12; 3:07 PM EST = +0; signal line is +31

7/23/12; 1:32 PM EST = +14; signal line is +31

SPX Daily Chart Shows Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
7/23/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1348; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.2%; Keybot algo is up 9.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.8%. Stay alert for a whipsaw. Note the sideways nature of the SPX thru 1310-1375 for the last two months; up, down, up, down, up, now down again. The bull-bear fight continues.
7/13/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:38 AM EST at SPX 1342; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.7%; Keybot algo is up 9.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.8%.
7/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:57 AM EST at SPX 1354; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.6%; Keybot algo is up 8.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.9%.
6/29/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:59 AM EST at SPX 1351; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.4%; Keybot algo is up 8.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.4%.
6/21/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 1:39 PM EST at SPX 1334; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.0%; Keybot algo is up 9.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 9.2%.
6/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:02 AM EST at SPX 1305; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 3.7%; Keybot algo is up 7.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%.
5/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:55 AM EST at SPX 1382; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 9.9%; Keybot algo is up 1.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 2.0%.
4/25/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:29 AM EST at SPX 1387; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.3%; Keybot algo is up 2.0%; Keybot actual trading is up 3.0%.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market buoyancy continues along today. The VIX lost the 18.70's level so the bulls are enjoying a continued market recovery off the lows.  The NYA, however, remains well under 7750 which keeps the bearish side in business. Watch VIX 18.68 as the session moves towards the close.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/23/12; 1:32 PM EST = +14; signal line is +31

7/23/12; 1:16 PM EST = +0; signal line is +30

7/23/12; 1:08 PM EST = +14; signal line is +29

7/23/12; 10:42 AM EST = +0; signal line is +28

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short. RTH recovered above 41.90 which creates market buoyancy. Watch VIX 18.75 closely, now at 18.86.  The markets will head higher if the VIX drops under 18.75, 18.70, 18.65, and heads lower.  If the bears can stop the VIX from falling and send the RTH back below 41.90, the market selling will resume.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/23/12; 10:42 AM EST = +0; signal line is +28

7/23/12; 9:30 AM EST = -16; signal line is +28; go short 1348; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +7.2%)(Keybot this trade = +0.5%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.7%)(Actual this trade = +0.0%; Actual for 2012 = +8.8%)

7/22/12; 7:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +29 but the algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot flipped to the short side after the open at SPX 1348.  The NYA failed 7750, and volatility spiked, the VIX now over 20, and the retail sector is also weak.  Watch RTH 41.90 today, now at 41.74 contributing bearishness. The first signs of any recovery move for markets will likely be signaled by the RTH moving back above 41.90. If RTH stays under 41.90, the markets will remain weak going forward. The algorithm program gained one-half percent for the latest trade while the actual trading execution resulted in a flat trade via SSO. The caution flag is probably not needed but considering the magnitude and turmoil this morning, the caution will remain out for now.  The bears are in control.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/23/12; 9:30 AM EST = -16; signal line is +28; go short 1348; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +7.2%)(Keybot this trade = +0.5%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.7%)(Actual this trade = +0.0%; Actual for 2012 = +8.8%)

7/22/12; 7:00 PM EST = +28 signal line is +29 but the algorithm says stay long

7/20/12; 9:45 AM EST = +28 signal line is +28 but the algorithm says stay long

7/20/12; 9:30 AM EST = +44 signal line is +27

7/19/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60 signal line is +26

7/18/12; 9:00 AM EST = +44 signal line is +23

7/17/12; 11:55 AM EST = +44 signal line is +21

7/17/12; 10:00 AM EST = +30 signal line is +20

7/17/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60 signal line is +19

7/16/12; 3:37 PM EST = +46 signal line is +18

7/16/12; 2:35 PM EST = +60 signal line is +17

7/16/12; 2:04 PM EST = +46 signal line is +15

7/16/12; 11:32 AM EST = +32 signal line is +14

7/16/12; 11:14 AM EST = +46 signal line is +13

7/16/12; 10:29 AM EST = +32 signal line is +12

7/16/12; 9:49 AM EST = +16 signal line is +11

7/16/12; 9:35 AM EST = +32 signal line is +11

7/15/12; 7:00 PM EST = +46 signal line is +11

7/13/12; 11:40 AM EST = +46 signal line is +10

7/13/12; 10:00 AM EST = +32 signal line is +9

7/13/12; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +10; go long 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.7%)(Keybot this trade = +0.9%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.2%)(Actual this trade = +1.9%; Actual for 2012 = +8.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to start the new trading week.  The opening bell is very important tomorrow. As previously mentioned, the NYA 40-week MA at 7750 is the most influential parameter dictating broad market direction right now.  If NYA, now with a 7759 handle, stays above 7750 and moves higher, the market bulls will remain in control and markets will foat higher. The standard Sunday print shows the algo number now under the signal line so the quant definitely wants to go short, but other programming rules must be honored to trigger the move, and the ducks are not in a row as yet. Make no mistake, this is a market inflection point from where the broad indexes will bounce, or die.

Other key parameters to watch include JJC 44.20 (now causing bearishness at 43.73) and XLF 14.46 (now causing bearishness at 14.38).  Thus, if the NYA loses 7750, the market bears will win and markets will tumble lower.  If the NYA stays above 7750, and either JJC or XLF recovers, the markets are heading higher.

For the SPX starting at 1363, the bears need less than one point lower, to lose the 1362 level, and a downside acceleration will occur. The overnight futures are important since any smidge of red will embolden the bears. If SPX 1362 fails, and the NYA loses 7750, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. A move thru 1363-1375 is sideways action for Monday and will result in market indecision.  The algo prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. An exciting start to the week is on tap. NYA 7750, JJC 44.20, XLF 14.46 and SPX 1362 tell you everything you need to know for Monday's broad market direction.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/22/12; 7:00 PM EST = +28 signal line is +29 but the algorithm says stay long

7/20/12; 9:45 AM EST = +28 signal line is +28 but the algorithm says stay long

Note Added 7/23/12 at 9:28 AM EST:  A turn appears imminent after the opening bell, S&P futures are off 20 points. Stay tuned.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long thru the weekend. High drama is occurring since the algo number is on top of the signal line. The quant is poised to turn to the short side--but not yet.  The market bears had the markets within their grasp during Friday afternoon.  If the NYA would have dropped under 7750, the markets would have sold off substantially. But, the bulls kept the NYA above 7750 preventing market failure.  This drama will immediately pick up again as soon as the Monday bell rings.  For a longer term cyclical bull versus bear market signal, the NYA 40-week MA cross is very important.  This moving average is represented by the 7749-7750 number and the NYA closed at 7759, only nine points above which influences the markets bullishly.  Thus, NYA 7750 is key for Monday, as well as copper and financials, but the areas and levels of interest can be highlighted tomorrow after the standard pre-scheduled Sunday print occurs. The bulls continue to drive the bus although the ride is now becoming very bumpy, shaky and unsure. A turn may be imminent.

7/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/20/12; 9:45 AM EST = +28 signal line is +28 but the algorithm says stay long

7/20/12; 9:30 AM EST = +44 signal line is +27

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but on the verge of flipping short.  JJC 44.20 failed at the open creating market weakness.  XLF failed 14.45 thereafter adding further weakness.  Watch NYA 7750, if it fails, markets will tumble substantially lower.  The bulls will try to drive the XLF back above 14.45 and higher to stop the downward slide.  The VIX is remaining relatively low at 16.30 which prevents the bears from gathering downside steam. Stay alert, markets will bounce, or die, from these levels.

7/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/20/12; 9:45 AM EST = +28 signal line is +28 but the algorithm says stay long

7/20/12; 9:30 AM EST = +44 signal line is +27

7/19/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60 signal line is +26

Note Added 7/20/12 at 2:02 PM:  NYA came down to 7752 and bounced at 1:30 PM so the bulls are hanging on by a fingernail. If NYA 7750 fails, and SPX 1362 fails, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. Otherwise, the bulls should limp into the weekend.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  The algo printed a number at the opening bell today and then idled along the remainder of the session. China hinted at lowering the triple R's, which is an easing measure, so copper exploded higher overnight last night thru today's trading. This copper, and commodity strength, creates bullish markets. The quant is tracking SOX 378 (now at 371 creating market negativity), XLF 14.45 (now at 14.60 creating market positivity) and JJC 44.20 (now at 44.88 creating market positivity). The bulls need the SOX over 378 and the SPX will be on its way over 1400. The bears will try to prevent SOX 378 with all their might while at the same time driving the XLF and JJC under the levels shown.

For the SPX for Friday, starting at 1376.51, the bulls need to push up and over 1380, if so, an upside acceleration will likely occur with the SPX testing 1385 in quick order.   The bears need to push under 1371, only five points lower, and a downside acceleration will occur with the SPX testing 1366 in quick order. A move thru 1372-1379 is sideways action. The caution flag remains out. Markets are extremely unstable currently and susceptible to an extreme shock. Vigilance is required. That said, the bulls are cruising.

7/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/19/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60 signal line is +26

7/18/12; 9:00 AM EST = +44 signal line is +23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long into the Thursday session. For today, Wednesday, the algo idled along and did not print any numbers aside from the pre-scheduled number before the open. The bulls will need to push the JJC above 44.20 (now at 44.14 causing market bearishness) to initate a new market leg higher.  Watch this at the opening bell since it will immediately dictate the SPX direction.   Also, keep watching CRB 293.80, NYA 7750, and now the quant is starting to track RTH 41.75 as well. For the SPX starting at 1373, the bulls need only two points, to push up thru 1375, and an upside acceleration will occur.  The bears need to drop the SPX 13 points to accelerate negativity. A move thru 1360-1374 is sideways action. The bull-bear fight continues. Stay alert since the markets are very erratic and unstable. A stronger dollar will push JJC and CRB lower. A weak dollar will push JJC and CRB higher.

7/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/18/12; 9:00 AM EST = +44 signal line is +23

7/17/12; 11:55 AM EST = +44 signal line is +21

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the Wednesday trading session is about to begin. The pre-scheduled number results in no change to the algo number but the signal line bumps upwards two ticks. The higher the signal line moves the easier it is for the algo number to drop back below to make bears happy. For now the bulls continue to drive the bus.  Watch NYA 7749, JJC 44.20 and CRB 293.80 today to determine market direction.

7/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/18/12; 9:00 AM EST = +44 signal line is +23

7/17/12; 11:55 AM EST = +44 signal line is +21

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the mid-week approaches. Note the large drop with the algo number at 10 AM EST.  This time corresponds to when traders realized that Chairman Bernanke was not endorsing QE.  The dollar popped and commodities, copper and the broad indexes sold off.  The selloff did not last, trader's believe that further Fed stimulus is coming in two weeks, perhaps a larger stimulus within six weeks.  For Wednesday, watch NYA 7749, CRB 293.80, both are now bullish, and JJC 44.20, which is bearish. Any changes to these three will send markets in that respective direction.  Note how the CRB fell today and bounced off the 293.80-ish level to recover the rest of the day.  How does Keybot know these numbers to watch ahead of time?

For the SPX starting at 1364, the bulls only need one and one-half point higher, to cross up and over the strong 1366 resistance, and a large upward acceleration should occur with the SPX headed to the 1370's in short order.  The bears need to retrace Tuesday's move and push under 1345, a formidable task.  A move thru 1346-1364 is sideways action. A pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow morning just before the bell so the action can be updated at that time.

7/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/18/12; 9:00 AM EST =

7/17/12; 11:55 AM EST = +44 signal line is +21

7/17/12; 10:00 AM EST = +30 signal line is +20

7/17/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60 signal line is +19

7/16/12; 3:37 PM EST = +46 signal line is +18

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and the algo wastes no time in clicking off another number today that bolsters the bull case. The NYA moved above 7748 which creates the market thrust higher.  The SPX is fighting to move thru the 1358-1360 resistance gauntlet.  Today's action is entirely dependent on Chairman Bernanke, and he is on deck to appear shortly. Use the NYA 7748, JJC 44.20, CRB 293.80 levels to forecast market direction today. If all three remain bullish as they are right now, the markets will continue to float upwards. If any of the three turn bearish, the markets will start to leak lower. The caution flag should be removed since the bulls are cruising, however, Bernanke has the ability to immediately change the market mood in a heartbeat today.

7/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/18/12; 9:00 AM EST =

7/17/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60 signal line is +19

7/16/12; 3:37 PM EST = +46 signal line is +18

7/16/12; 2:35 PM EST = +60 signal line is +17

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls were driving the markets higher yesterday afternoon. Trader's are counting on Chairman Bernanke to hint about quantitative easing so the dollar weakens and copper and commodities run higher, taking the broad indexes higher. Thus, Bernanke's words today will greatly impact markets.  The quant is tracking three main areas and levels; JJC 44.20 (now above adding market positivity), NYA 7748 (now below preventing the markets from moving higher) and CRB 293.80 (now above adding market positivity). The bears need JJC and CRB to drop, and this will occur with a stronger dollar, which will occur if Bernanke does not mention QE today.  The bulls need to move the NYA above 7748 which will signal more market bullishness ahead and higher numbers for the broad indexes.

For the SPX today starting at 1354, the bulls only need three points higher, to push up and over 1357, and another upside acceleration will occur. SPX 1358-1360 is a resistance zone that would lead to 1366 if it gives way.  The futures indicate a pop of about seven handles on tap for the S&P as this missive is written, about five hours ahead of the U.S. opening bell. The bears need to push under 1348.50, about five points lower, if so, that will ignite a downside acceleration. A move thru 1350-1356 is sideways action. The caution flag remains out due to the ongoing market instability and the potential for a wild market move as Bernakne speaks this morning.

7/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/18/12; 9:00 AM EST =

7/16/12; 3:37 PM EST = +46 signal line is +18

7/16/12; 2:35 PM EST = +60 signal line is +17

7/16/12; 2:04 PM EST = +46 signal line is +15

7/16/12; 11:32 AM EST = +32 signal line is +14

7/16/12; 11:14 AM EST = +46 signal line is +13

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bullish and the algo remains active, printing three more numbers.  The drama occurs around the NYA 7748 and JJC 44.20 levels today; this action dictates market direction. The caution flag remains out moving forward since the markets are demonstrating erratic and unstable behavior.

7/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/18/12; 9:00 AM EST =

7/16/12; 11:32 AM EST = +32 signal line is +14

7/16/12; 11:14 AM EST = +46 signal line is +13

7/16/12; 10:29 AM EST = +32 signal line is +12

7/16/12; 9:49 AM EST = +16 signal line is +11

STOCK MARKET BULLISH - -LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is active in the early going today, printing two numbers thus far. Things change quickly with the algo number now within five points of the signal line. Thus, the caution flag is back out. The bulls are driving the bus but it is apparent that they may now have a mechanical problem. The NYA and JJC dropped in the early action thus far.  The algo has revised the levels of interest to NYA 7748 and JJC 44.20, so keep an eye on these levels, as well as CRB 295.50. All three are adding to market negativity so the bulls need to wrestle at least one of the three back into their camp.  The bears can push substantially lower if XLF 14.41 or RTH 41.65 gives way, but these targets will take work. Extreme caution is required, the bull-bear struggle continues. 

7/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/18/12; 9:00 AM EST =

7/16/12; 9:49 AM EST = +16 signal line is +11

7/16/12; 9:35 AM EST = +32 signal line is +11

7/15/12; 7:00 PM EST = +46 signal line is +11

7/13/12; 11:40 AM EST = +46 signal line is +10

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long to start the new trading week. The algo is tracking five areas of key interest that are most affecting the broad indexes right now; retail, financials, copper, commodities and the NYA Index.  RTH 41.65, XLF 14.41, JJC 44.15 and NYA 7738 are contributing to the market positivity; CRB 295.50, commodities, are contributing negatively.  Therefore, if the CRB moves above 295.50, the broad indexes will take another leg higher.  If the commodities remain under 295.50, and one of the other four drop under the levels shown, the broad indexes will be in sell mode.

For the SPX starting at 1357, the bulls need to punch thru the 1358-1360 resistance zone and a test of 1366 should follow in short order. The bears are trying to stop the upside momo by pushing commodities and copper lower. Thus, watch the dollar closely, a stronger dollar will push the CRB and JJC lower favoring bears. A move thru 1336-1356 is sideways action. For Monday morning, CRB 295.50, JJC 44.15 and NYA 7738 are the most important gauges of market direction. To add to the drama, Retail Sales data is on tap which will immediately impact the RTH. The bulls are cruising.

7/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/18/12; 9:00 AM EST =

7/15/12; 7:00 PM EST = +46 signal line is +11

7/13/12; 11:40 AM EST = +46 signal line is +10

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
7/13/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:38 AM EST at SPX 1342; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.7%; Keybot algo is up 9.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.8%. Stay alert for a whipsaw.
7/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:57 AM EST at SPX 1354; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.6%; Keybot algo is up 8.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.9%.
6/29/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:59 AM EST at SPX 1351; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.4%; Keybot algo is up 8.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.4%.
6/21/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 1:39 PM EST at SPX 1334; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.0%; Keybot algo is up 9.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 9.2%.
6/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:02 AM EST at SPX 1305; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 3.7%; Keybot algo is up 7.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%.
5/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:55 AM EST at SPX 1382; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 9.9%; Keybot algo is up 1.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 2.0%.
4/25/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:29 AM EST at SPX 1387; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.3%; Keybot algo is up 2.0%; Keybot actual trading is up 3.0%.
4/23/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:57 AM EST at SPX 1362; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.3%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.1%.
4/12/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:30 PM EST at SPX 1384; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.0%; Keybot algo is up 5.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.7%.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is on the long side thru the weekend. The NYA moved over 7738 before lunch time yesterday which resulted in another five handle move upwards for the SPX. Copper, commodities and the NYA 7738 level will play key roles come Monday.  The table can be set for next week's trading after the pre-scheduled Sunday print occurs tomorrow. The caution flag is not required currently since the bulls are in firm control as a result of Friday's market behavior. 

7/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/13/12; 11:40 AM EST = +46 signal line is +10

7/13/12; 10:00 AM EST = +32 signal line is +9

7/13/12; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +10; go long 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.7%)(Keybot this trade = +0.9%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.2%)(Actual this trade = +1.9%; Actual for 2012 = +8.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 1342 at 9:38 AM EST.  The financials and copper are launching the broad markets. The bank earnings and China GDP both supplied the respective fuel.  As always, watch for a whipsaw today or Monday.  The last trade resulted in a one percent gain for the algorithm program and a two percent gain in the actual trading. The pre-sceduled number printed minutes ago as well.  Keybot is now long via SSO. If the NYA moves above 7738 that will verify further strong bullishness.

7/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/13/12; 10:00 AM EST = +32 signal line is +9

7/13/12; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +10; go long 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.7%)(Keybot this trade = +0.9%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.2%)(Actual this trade = +1.9%; Actual for 2012 = +8.8%)

7/13/12; 9:33 AM EST = +32 signal line is +12 but algorithm says stay short

7/13/12; 9:30 AM EST = +16 signal line is +12 but algorithm says stay short

7/12/12; 11:49 AM EST = +0 signal line is +13

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as another active day occurs for the algo.  The quant is now fixated on three items; financials, volatility and retail.  Watch XLF 14.41, now under this level creating market bearishness. Watch VIX 18.75, now under creating market bullishness. Watch RTH 41.65, now over creating market bullishness.  Any change with these three parameters will cause the broad indexes to move in that respective direction.

For the SPX starting at 1335 for the final trading day of the week, the bulls need to touch 1341 to accelerate the upside.  The bears need to break thru 1325 to ignite a downside acceleration.  A move thru 1326-1340 is sideways action. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time.

7/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =

7/13/12; 10:00 AM EST =

7/12/12; 11:49 AM EST = +0 signal line is +13

7/12/12; 11:25 AM EST = -14; signal line is +14

7/12/12; 10:00 AM EST = -30; signal line is +17

7/12/12; 9:30 AM EST = -14; signal line is +20

7/11/12; 3:02 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21

Note Added 7/13/12 at 5:57 AM:  China GDP is 7.6% remaining above their target for this year at 7.5%.  The global markets are bouncing copper believing that further China stimulus may be on tap.  The algo is tracking copper now, use JJC 44.15 as a proxy. If it stays below the markets will experience continuinig negativity but if JJC moves above 44.15, the bulls will be running strong. The more important event this morning is the bank earnings, JPM and WFC. JPM hits the fan in about one hour.  Referencing the XLF 14.41 number listed above, and considering how close the algo number is to the signal line, if the bank earnings are positive, bouncing the XLF above 14.41, there is a high liklihood that Keybot will flip to the long side.