STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo printed two numbers plus the pre-scheduled number thus far today. JJC is well under 43.70 which is contributing to market negativity. The market bears need to see the SOX lose 390, now printing 393, or, the VIX print 18.35, now printing 17.82 to send Keybot to the short side.  UTIL 464 and NYA 7836 remain important.  A turn may be imminent, bulls are hanging on by a thread, but hanging on nonetheless.  Remember to watch for UTIL 467.35 at 4 PM today. The algo number is only six points away from the signal line verifying the ongoing bull-bear struggle.

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/31/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +54

8/31/12; 9:48 AM EST = +60; signal line is +54

8/31/12; 9:30 AM EST = +76; signal line is +54

8/30/12; 10:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after a day of teetering towards the bear side.  Copper was weak as the day moved along which helped maintain market weakness.  The bears, however, were unable to move the SOX under 390 to kick in serious broad market selling. Keybot will likely flip short if JJC stays under 43.70 and the SOX falls under 390.  SOX fell to a LOD of 390.33, only 33 pennies away from flushing the markets.  Chairman Bernanke speaks tomorrow at 10 AM EST when the market story will be written.

The areas of interest to the quant right now are JJC 43.70, SOX 390, VIX 18.35, UTIL 464 and NYA 7835.  UTIL closed at 468.45 which will provide excitement tomorrow since price is only four points away from 464. In addition, the UTIL 50-week MA is 460, a trap door for the broad indexes; markets will drop into free fall if UTIL 460 is lost and it is only eight points away. Also of interest for the utilities sector is the UTIL 467.35 number for every day next week. Thus, the close tomorrow at 4 PM is very important since the 467.35 will be the comparison number as soon as the bell rings on Tuesday (markets are closed on Monday). If UTIL closes tomorrow under 467.35 at 4 PM consider that to be an all systems go signal for bears for Tuesday morning.

For the SPX, starting at 1399 support, the bulls need to touch 1410 and an upside acceleration to 1419 will occur in short order.  The bears need to push only two measley points lower, to drop under 1397, and a downside acceleration will occur to 1391 in quick order.  A move thru 1398-1409 is sideways action. Tomorrow will be a circus. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time. In a nutshell, if JJC stays under 43.70, and one of the other four parameters listed above turn bearish, Keybot will likely flip short. A turn may be imminent tomorrow. If you see JJC move above 43.70, the market bulls will float the markets higher into the weekend.

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/30/12; 10:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +52

8/30/12; 9:31 AM EST = +76; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but the algorithm is now teetering on the edge of flipping to the short side. JJC moved above 43.70 at the open but then fell on its sword returning to the bear camp.  VIX is over 18 but would need to touch 18.35, or, SOX, now at 390.92, needs to fall under 390 (Keybot lowered the 391 number to 390 after the opening bell--these numbers are recalculated in real time continuously), thus, the algorithm is very close to flipping short. SOX 390 and VIX 18.35 will tell you the story. For now, Keybot remains long.

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/30/12; 10:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +52

8/30/12; 9:31 AM EST = +76; signal line is +52

8/29/12; 9:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long ahead of the Thursday session. Copper is trading up this morning so the bulls are going to attempt to push JJC above 43.70. If JJC stays under 43.70, this will continue to foster market negativity moving forward. Above 43.70 and the broad markets will float upwards. Continue watching UTIL 464, SOX 391 and NYA 7837.  In addition, the quant is showing interest in volatility. The late day push higher in the VIX shows traders seeking protection ahead of Jackson Hole and also indicates that the swings in the broad indexes will become more dramatic moving forward.  Watch VIX 18.35, now at 17.06 supporting the bullish case. If VIX moves above 18.35, the broad market selling will be substantial.

For the SPX starting at 1410, the bulls must touch and hold 1414 for a few minutes to launch an upside acceleration to 1419, that would occur in short order.  Yesterday, the bulls needed 1414 and fell one nickel short, running out of gas, printing a high at 1413.95. The bears need to push the SPX under 1407 to initiate a downside acceleration. The 1406 level is very strong support, but if 1407 fails, the 1406 should give way and that will send the SPX down to test 1403, then under 1400, all in short order. A move thru 1408-1412 is sideways action.  JJC 43.70 will provide the early tell on the markets minutes after the opening bell. If JJC stays under 43.70, and either the SOX falls under 391, or VIX moves over 18.35, there is a high liklihood that Keybot would flip to the short side. The tight nine point spread between the algo number and signal line verifies the bull-bear tug-o-war ongoing. Continue exercising caution.

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/29/12; 9:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +51

8/28/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long printing a number after this morning's opening bell.  Copper weakness is appearing in the markets and continues all day long thus far.  Watch JJC 43.70 moving forward, and the current print is 43.63, so the jury remains out, but copper is now contributing bearishness to markets (despite the broad indexes moving higher today). If JJC moves above 43.70, the bulls will rejoice once again.  Interestingly, the bulls need to touch and hold the 1414 level to launch the upside and the current high print a short time ago is 1413.95.  The algo number is now only nine points away from the signal line. The bull-bear battle continues. SOX, UTIL and NYA remain as bullish influences on the markets.

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/29/12; 9:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +51

8/28/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +51

8/26/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +50

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long ahead of the Wednesday session. The algo did not print any additional numbers yesterday after the pre-scheduled number.  The quant is tracking JJC 43.65, UTIL 464, SOX 391 and NYA 7837. All four start the day contributing to the bullish side with the JJC at 43.91, UTIL 473, SOX 397 and NYA two hundred points above danger at 8034. At this writing copper is down 0.9% today, thus, applying this move to JJC results in a projection of 43.54. Looks like some drama is on tap today.  Pay attention to semiconductors as well since a drop in SOX could reach the 391 level in a heart beat. Noticeable broad market selling will occur if JJC falls under 43.65. If one other parameter above fails as well, along with JJC, Keybot will likely flip to the short side.

For the SPX today, starting at 1409, closing in the center of yesterday's range, the bulls need to touch 1414 to accelerate an upside move to test 1419 in quick order. The bears need to push under the very strong support level of 1406 to accelerate the downside. Price would immediately test 1403 and likely fail sending the SPX further south to 1399. A move thru 1407-1412 is sideways action today. Extreme caution is warranted. Keybot has been long for over three weeks and with the projected weakness in copper on tap, the bears may be contemplating a move today.

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +51

8/26/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +50

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after the pre-scheduled number prints. The signal line ticks up another point. Copper is teasing lower but remains in the bull camp by pennies so the bears cannot attain any downside traction. Watch JJC 43.65 (slightly different since Keybot continuously recalculates the levels of interest) today and price is currently printing 43.86. Noticeable broad market selling will occur if JJC loses 43.65, otherwise, markets will float along sideways today. The bulls continue driving the bus. Exercise caution.

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/12; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +51

8/26/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +50

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Continue watching the same four key parameters currently impacting markets to the largest extent; JJC 43.61, SOX 389, UTIL 464 and NYA 7808. All remain bullish which created the sideways to sideways up move in the markets today.  SPX moved above 1413.50 this morning and ventured to a HOD at 1416.17.  For the SPX for Tuesday, starting at 1410, the bulls want to move above 1416 to create an upside acceleration. The bears need to drop under 1409 to create a downside acceleration. A move thru 1410-1415 is sideways action.  The markets can be updated at 10 AM-ish tomorrow once the pre-scheduled number prints.

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/26/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +50

8/24/12; 3:42 PM EST = +76; signal line is +49

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long ahead of the new trading week.  The bulls maintained buoyancy last week by keeping copper elevated.  Utilities, however, rolled over which initiated broad market selling but by late day Friday UTIL returned to the bull camp. The quant is tracking four parameters that are most greatly impacting the broad markets currently; JJC 43.61, UTIL 464, SOX 389 and NYA 7808.  All four are bullish allowing markets to continue floating upwards.  If any one of the four drops under the level listed, the broad indexes will be selling off. If two of the four fail, the markets are in serious trouble and Keybot will likely flip to the short side.

For the SPX for Monday starting at 1411, the bulls need to push up thru 1413.50, holding that level for a few minutes, and an upside market acceleration will occur with the SPX testing 1419 in quick order.  The bulls need to push under 1398 to accelerate the downside which would cause a drop to 1391.  A move thru 1399-1412 is sideways action. Extreme caution is warranted. Markets remain erratic and unstable. The algo prints one pre-scheduled number on Tuesday morning and another on Friday morning this week.

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/28/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/26/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +50

8/24/12; 3:42 PM EST = +76; signal line is +49

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long for the last three weeks as the central banker's talk of quantitative easing continues to support markets. At the opening bell, JJC dropped to 43.87, only 26 points away from the critical 43.61 that Keybot is currently tracking, but the bulls came in to run copper, and the markets higher.  A WSJ article written by Jon Hilsensrath, a perceived mounthpiece for the Fed, stick-saved the markets.  The volume spikes in the first hour of trading show how long players started jumping back in, obviously knowing that the article was on its way, and then at 11 AM EST-ish, the WSJ article catapulted markets higher. SPX had lost the 1401.50 and price was testing the 1399 support, is was all systems go for market bears, copper was falling, so the Fed had to pump the rumors again to save the day. A Hilsenrath article, always arrives at the most opportune stick-saving times, and typically results in a ten point pop for the S&P's, so Friday was no different.

Utilities were flat all day long and then late day buoyancy pushed UTIL back above 472 confirming the Friday rally and well above the 464 that is now tracked by the algo thru next Friday. JJC 43.61, UTIL 464, SOX 389 and NYA 7808 will all be in play next week, all are bullish, creating market buoyancy, so markets remain elevated if these four parameters remain elevated.  Markets will sell off if one or more lose the levels shown.  If two of the parameters are lost, Keybot will llikely flip to the short side. Otherwise, and for now, the bulls are driving the bus. More insight can be provided once the Sunday print occurs tomorrow and a projection for the Monday trade can be made.

8/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/24/12; 3:42 PM EST = +76; signal line is +49

8/23/12; 10:52 AM EST = +60; signal line is +48

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long ahead of the final trading day of the week.  The utilties sector failed yesterday dragging the broad indexes lower.  For today, watch UTIL 472, the same number all week long. The UTIL number of interest, however, changes for next week and becomes 464.16, so in the final hour of trading today watch to see if UTIL closes above or below 464. If UTIL closes under 464 at 4 PM EST today, this will continue causing broad market negativity thru next week. However, if UTIL closes above 464 at 4 PM, then starting Monday, the utes will be back on the bull side contributing positively to the markets next week. The quant is now tracking utilities, copper, semi's, and the NYA as the major influences on broad market movement for today.

Watch JJC 43.61, now at 44.03, contributing positivity to markets. If 43.61 fails today, that will create a negative market influence and Keybot will likely flip to the short side.  Watch SOX 389, now at 396.66, contributing bullishly to the markets. If 389 fails, the broad indexes will sell off strongly.  Similarly, watch NYA 7808, now at 8011, contributing positively to markets. Should 7808 fail, the broad indexes will sell off strongly.

For the SPX today, starting at 1402, the market bears only need one and one-half points lower, to drop thru 1401.50, to start a downward acceleration thru the 1399 support and toward the low to mid 1390's. The bulls need to retrace yesterday's sell off to get their mojo back, and push up over 1413, a formidable task, but not impossible.  A move thru 1402-1412 is sideways action.

Note: Keybot will likely not be updated unitl later on today or this evening so you will have to use the tools above to see if the quant flips to the short side today, or not. In a nutshell, as described above, UTIL is in the bear camp dragging markets lower but JJC, SOX and NYA are in the bull camp creating market positivity. If JJC, SOX and/or NYA, any one of them, falls under the levels listed, while UTIL remains under 472, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. The SPX 1400.50 level would need to be breached as well.

If UTIL stays in the bear camp, and JJC, SOX and NYA stay in the bull camp, markets will move sideways today with no great shakes.  If UTIL moves above 472, that will immediately tell you that the bulls are staying in control and the quant remaining long is the correct call. Remember, in the final minutes of trading today, watch UTIL 464 since that will impact markets for the opening bell on Monday morning. Markets remain extremely unstable. Copper is lower in early trading, down 0.6% as this message is written five hours before the U.S. opening bell. Applying this to JJC, points to a a print in the 43.70's after the open, near the critical 43.61, so watch copper closely today.

8/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/23/12; 10:52 AM EST = +60; signal line is +48

8/21/12; 3:44 PM EST = +76; signal line is +48

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long even after the utilities UTIL 472 level ruptured a short time ago. UTIL failed before 11 AM and it is quite remarkable to see the broad indexes holding up this well, the SPX now printing 1407.  The 1407 failed this morning ushering in a low at 1403.90 so far today.  JJC stays well above 44, bullish, and the SOX remains a few dollars elevated above 389, bullish.  Keep an eye on UTIL 472 which will continue to usher in market weakness if price stays under 472.  Keybot will likely want to flip to the short side if either SOX 389 and/or JJC 43.61 fails.  The utility failure is a very big deal, violating long-term bullishness in that sector since April, four months ago. The quant is now tracking the NYA 40-week MA again, this tried and true indicator of intermediate-term market moves. Watch NYA 7808, now at 8041, only a couple hundred points above. Loss of NYA 7808 will guarantee strong downward action ongoing in the broad indexes. Stay on guard, markets may be at an inflection point. UTIL 472 will tell you a lot today.

8/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/23/12; 10:52 AM EST = +60; signal line is +48

8/21/12; 3:44 PM EST = +76; signal line is +48

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long and did not print any numbers yesterday. Copper broke out higher yesterday on the FOMC Minutes that says easing is coming sooner rather than later. Then, overnight, the China Flash PMI falls under 48 indicating far slower growth and demand occurring in China, but, this actually encourages traders to expect stimulus, so copper is up in early trading today as well.  Watch JJC 43.61 as a bull-bear gauge and JJC is above 44 now, providing market bouyancy.  Utilities continue to leak lower which is an ominous market signal.  Watch UTIL 472, now at 475, only three points away. If UTIL 472 fails, the broad indexes will be selling off substantially. Market bulls must maintain UTIL above 472.  The quant is now tracking semiconductors again, watch SOX 389, now at 399, breaking down thru the 400 level yesterday. If SOX 389 fails, the broad indexes will be selling off strongly. If JJC stays above 43.61, UTIL above 472 and SOX above 389, the bulls have no worries and will stay in control, cruising along merrily.

For the SPX in today's trade, starting at 1413, exactly where it started the day before as well, the bulls only need three points higher, to punch up thru 1416 and hold it a few minutes, and an upside acceleration will occur to 1419 and 1422 once again.  The bears need to push seven points lower, under 1407, to accelerate a downside move that will likely fall thru the very strong 1406 and 1403 levels which leads to sub 1400 numbers.  A move thru 1408-1415 is sideways action today.  Markets are erratic and unstable. Exercise caution. Watch JJC 43.61, UTIL 472, SOX 389 and SPX 1416 and 1407 which dictate market direction today. 

8/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/21/12; 3:44 PM EST = +76; signal line is +48

8/21/12; 3:04 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the bulls put the pedal to the metal and cruise higher today; the SPX threatening multi-year highs before falling on its sword.  Interestingly, the SPX filled the gap from 2008 at 1424-1426. Remember months ago we watched the SPX come up for this gap fill and it failed. Price has now fulfilled its mission.  JJC popped thru 43.65 finally blessing the market rally with some street cred.  JJC dropped late day but then recovered into the close.  Watch JJC 43.61 for Wednesday. The market rally will move higher if JJC stays above 43.61, if JJC drops under 43.61, the markets will sell off.

Note the drop in the utilities sector today which is bearish for markets.  UTIL closed with a 475 handle and a 472 will signal major market trouble ahead.  For the SPX for Wednesday, starting at 1413 support, the bears need to see negativity in the overnight futures, a smidge will do, and a downside acceleration will continue to 1410, 1406 and 1403.  The bulls need to prevent any significant downside and easily do that by keeping JJC above 43.61.  A move thru SPX 1414-1425 is sideways action. Markets remain highly unstable. Watch UTIL 472, JJC 43.61 and SPX 1413. Interestingly, if both UTIL 472 and JJC 43.61 fail, Keybot will likely flip to the short side.

8/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/21/12; 3:44 PM EST = +76; signal line is +48

8/21/12; 3:04 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48

8/21/12; 9:30 AM EST = +76; signal line is +47

8/19/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The markets continued along in a sideways range and the algo did not print any numbers today. The SPX 1415 level failed in early trading ushering in 1412 but the bulls recovered. Copper fell out of bed.  Bulls cannot pull the markets higher without copper.  Keep watching JJC 43.65. Price lost a half buck today and will begin tomorrow at 42.85.  Also watch utilites, UTIL 472.

For the SPX, starting at 1418, the bulls have the same set-up as last evening. The bulls only need a smidge of green in the futures and they will launch the SPX thru the 1419 and 1422 levels and higher to test 1425. The bears must keep the overnight futures negative and revisit todays lows, and push under 1412 to accelerate a more substantial down move.  A move thru 1413-1417 is sideways action.  Do not let the sideways move lull you into complacency.  Stay on guard. Expect the unexpected.

8/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/19/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +47

8/17/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long going into the new week of trading.  The utilities sector is moving lower dropping from 500 to 478, 4.4%, in only fourteen days. The stealth move is very important because when utes roll over, and lead the broad market downward, this is a very ominous market indication. Obviously, however, the markets have not rolled over, the broad indexes continue floating upwards. Watch UTIL 472 all week long which would signal major market trouble ahead. Price starts the week at 478.91 and printed a 477 handle on Friday.

The key is copper which is always the market leader but oddly, it is the only major sector that has not participated in the market rally.  Use JJC 43.65 as the bull-bear line in the sand. If the bulls take out 43.65 to the upside, JJC begins at 43.39, only 26 cents away, the rally is verified and lots more market upside is ahead. The bears must prevent 43.65 from printing to begin pushing back and stopping further market upside. JJC 43.65 will tell you more about the broad market direction for Monday than any other parameter. Bears win if JJC stays under 43.65 and bulls win above 43.65 and this is true regardless of how the broad markets are trading.

For the SPX starting at 1418, closing near the highs on Friday, the bulls only need a smidge of green in the futures overnight tonight and it will be off to the races for the bulls once again with 1419, 1422, and 1425 all on tap for Monday. These are significant technical levels. If 1419 is pierced and holds for a few minutes, there is lots more upside ahead. The bears need to stop this upside momo and that begins by keeping futures red overnight tonight with all their might. If not, it will be a long day for the bears. The bears need to push under 1415 to accelerate a downward move to 1410 and perhaps 1406 support. A sideways move appears unlikely for Monday, markets will likely choose up or down.

The algo does not print any pre-scheduled numbers until next Sunday, so the market action will dictate Keybot's activity, or non-activity, this week. After the couple-week lull, a period of intense wild activity would be expected this week. The bulls are driving the bus to start the week. JJC 43.65, UTIL 472, SPX 1419 and SPX 1415 will determine the broad market direction. Note that the algo number is only 13 points away from the signal line. Extreme caution is warranted moving forward.

8/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/19/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +47

8/17/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long thru the weekend. The drama at JJC 43.60 (copper) was intense on Friday. If the bulls push above, the market rally is confirmed and lots more upside is ahead. The bears have to keep the JJC lower to stop the market from moving any higher.  Regardless of whether or not the SPX punches up thru this years April highs is not as important as copper. The algo is currently indicating JJC 43.65 as the level of interest for next week.  After the pre-scheduled number prints for Sunday, the areas and levels of interest can be identifed for the week ahead. JJC 43.65, now at 43.39, is perhaps the single-most important item to watch as the bell rings on Monday morning. And of course, JJC will move opposite the dollar, so the $USD will provide the early read. Weaker dollar and JJC moves up; stronger dollar, JJC moves down. Watch the $USD 82.6 level, the 50-day MA, eactly where it now sits. JJC 43.65 is going to decide the direction of the broad indexes come Monday morning.

8/19/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/17/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +46

8/16/12; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the pre-scheduled number prints, resulting in a single tick up in the signal line. Watch the drama with JJC 43.60, now printing 43.38, pennies away. Copper has not cooperated with the entire market rally, if the JJC moves above 43.60 and higher, the market bulls will leap higher and not look back. Watch it like a hawk today.  In addition, the SPX is teasing the 1417.50 level to ignite an upside acceleration. Price has touched twice so far in this early trading but unable to punch above as yet. UTIL is weaker, printing a 478 handle for the LOD thus far, ever closer to the 472 danger level.  Lots of drama continues as the bulls drive the rickety bus down the road.

8/19/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/17/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +46

8/16/12; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the Friday session.  The algorithm remains on a calm path for two weeks ever since the flip to the long side at 1377, forty handles ago. Keybot stays the bull course.  The quant continues to track copper. Watch JJC 43.60, now at 42.94. If the bulls move above 43.60 that will prove that the upside rally is the real deal and the rally will continue in an extended and sustainable manner. The bears will try to prevent JJC 43.60 with all their might. The dollar and euro tells the story.  A weaker dollar means a stronger euro and stronger copper, commodities and equities and a stronger dollar means a weaker euro and weaker copper, commodities and equities.

The quant is also tracking the utilities sector. The markets are rampant with cross currents. As the markets print new highs, the utes appear to be leading to the downside which would be a very ominous market signal.  Watch UTIL 472 tomorrow, price is now at 479.82, falling under 480 for the first time in three weeks. The quant is watching 472 thru the following Friday so this number is important for the next six trading days and only sits seven handles away. If UTIL drops under 472 it does not matter what the broad indexes are doing at the time since the markets would be moving lower in quick order.

For the SPX on Friday starting at 1416, the bulls are on easy street only needing to attain the 1417.50 level and hold it for a few minutes, if so, the markets will continue higher and test the closing high this year at 1419 and the intraday high for the year at 1422, then on to the strong 1424 resistance. The bears must retrace todays move and push under 1404 to accelerate the downside, a formidable task but not at all impossible.  A move thru 1405-1415 is sideways action to end the week. The bulls are driving the bus.  Watch JJC 43.60, UTIL 472, SPX 1417.50 and 1404. Markets are extremely unstable. Expect the unexpected. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM tomorrow so the market action can be updated at that time.

8/19/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/17/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/16/12; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +45

8/12/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +44

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to start the Thursday session. The algo prints a pre-scheduled number which results in a single uptick to the signal line. Bulls want to see SPX 1408 and bears want to see 1402 today. The bulls continue to drive the bus thru these sideways markets. The broad indexes are highly unstable. Exercise caution.

8/19/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/17/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/16/12; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +45

8/12/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +44

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long going into the Thursday session. Markets continue to stumble along indecisively sideways.  The quant is now flagging the utilities sector as a potential problem area. Copper remains weak and prevents the bulls from making any headway higher.

The SPX continues to move thru the sideways 1399-1406 range.  For the SPX, starting at 1406, the bulls need to touch the 1408 handle to ignite a strong upside move that will hit 1413 in quick order.  The bears need to push under 1402 and a downside acceleration will occur. A move thru 1403-1407 is sideways action. Markets remain unstable.  The action can be updated before tomorrow's opening bell since a pre-scheduled number prints at 9 AM.

8/19/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/17/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/16/12; 9:00 AM EST =

8/12/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +44

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the sideways action plays out. The algo did not print any numbers during trading last week and so far this week has not printed any numbers. The SPX punched thru 1406 at the open this morning which led to an upside acceleration to the 1410 resistance where the SPX fell on its sword. The SPX closed at 1404 maintaining the sideways channel thru 1399-1406.  For Wednesday, the bulls need to touch the 1410 handle again, if so, an upside acceleration will occur with an immediate test of 1413, then higher.  The bears need to push under 1401 to ignite a downside acceleration towards 1391.  A move thru 1402-1409 is sideways action. Two pre-scheduled numbers will print this week. Markets are trading under multi-year low volume  and low volatility conditions and remain erratic and unstable. Caution is warranted.

8/19/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/17/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/16/12; 9:00 AM EST =

8/12/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +44

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  The week begins just like last week played out, day after day of flat action with indecisive sideways markets. Copper continues to cap any serious market upside.  Watch JJC 43.70, now far under at 42.51.  The quant is also tracking the CRB, now at 299. Watch CRB 291 which would indicate stress in equity markets. Above CRB 291 and the bulls are cruising. The retail sales numbers before the opening bell today will perhaps push the markets in one direction or the other to break this multi-day sideways glide path.

For the SPX today starting at 1404, the bulls need to touch the 1406 handle and a market acceleration will occur towards 1410 and 1413. The bears need to push under 1398 to accelerate the downside.  A move thru 1399-1405 is sideways action. These multi-year low volume markets remain extremely unstable, erratic and require extreme caution moving forward.  Desite the lull day after day, stay on guard.

8/19/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/17/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/16/12; 9:00 AM EST =

8/12/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +44

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to start the new trading week.  The algo idled all week long last week and did not print one single number; very odd behavior. The bulls and bears are locked at an inflection point. Market bulls continue to need copper to cooperate, which it has not as yet and places a lid on the upside rally.  Watch JJC 43.75, now at 43.24. Bears are having difficulty reversing the upside momo. Hence, the markets languish thru a sideways range of about 1395-1405 for the last five trading days, closing at the high end of that range to finish the week. For the SPX, starting at 1406, the bulls only need a tiny smidge of green in overnight futures, pennies, and the bulls will accelerate the upside to start the new trading week.  The bears need to keep the overnight futures negative to prevent an upside run at the opening bell. A drop thru SPX 1396 will create a downside market acceleration.  A move thru 1397-1405 is sideways action. Markets remain erratic and unstable. Two pre-scheduled numbers will print this week on Thursday and Friday.

8/19/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/17/12; 10:00 AM EST =

8/16/12; 9:00 AM EST =

8/12/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +44

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The fourth day occurs this week without the algo printing any numbers. This verifies the ongoing sideways bull-bear struggle.  Make no mistake, copper has prevented the markets from going higher frustrating the bulls.  Keybot continues to track JJC 43.75 as the level the bulls need where the entire broad markets will lock in sustainable upside. Without JJC 43.75, the market bulls got nothing.

The SPX punched up thru 1404 today but could not hold above, after several minutes each time slipping back below.  This action hints that the bulls are running out of gas since a stronger thrust should have occurred above 1404 today.  For Friday, starting at 1403, the bulls only need to touch the 1406 handle, and that will trigger an upside acceleration move with JJC pushing towards 43.75 and the bulls making a major market move higher. The bears need to drop under 1398 tomorrow and the downside will accelerate with the SPX heading to 1391 in short order. A move thru 1400-1405 is sideways action.  Note the tight sideways range, therefore, one side or the other is going to make a move. Markets are extremely indecisive, erratic and unstable. Extreme caution is required.

8/12/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42

8/3/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41; go long 1377; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +9.5%)(Keybot this trade = -1.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.2%)(Actual this trade = -3.3%; Actual for 2012 = +2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  The algo motored along for another day without printing any numbers; the third day this week. The bulls are cruising but cannot gain further upside without moving copper higher; JJC 43.75.  The SPX moved thru the sideways range yesterday. For the SPX today, starting at 1402, the bulls need to touch the 1404 handle and if they can hold it a few minutes, an upside market acceleration will occur.  The bears need to push under 1396 to accelerate the downside.  A move thru 1397-1401 is sideways action. Markets remain indecisive. JJC 43.75 and SPX 1404 and 1396 are important today.

8/12/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42

8/3/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41; go long 1377; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +9.5%)(Keybot this trade = -1.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.2%)(Actual this trade = -3.3%; Actual for 2012 = +2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long in front of the Wednesday session.  Lots of drama is occurring with copper as JJC is having trouble punching up thru the 43.75 level identified by the algorithm.  The market bulls must attain JJC 43.75 for the market upside to continue. The algo did not print any numbers for the second trading day this week.  For the SPX, starting at 1401, the bulls need to touch the 1407 handle to accelerate an upside move. The bears need to push under 1394.50 to accelerate the downside. A move thru SPX 1396-1406 is sideways action. Caution is warranted. Markets remain erratic and indecisive.

8/12/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42

8/3/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41; go long 1377; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +9.5%)(Keybot this trade = -1.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.2%)(Actual this trade = -3.3%; Actual for 2012 = +2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long going into the Tuesday session.  Monday was uneventful and the algo did not print any numbers.  The bulls are cruising. Continue watching for JJC 44 to signal sustainable upside, or not. The SPX punched thru 1394 yesterday and stopped pennies short of 1400 at the high for the day, settling back at 1394 at the close. For today, the bulls need to touch the 1400 handle to accelerate the upside. The bears only need three points lower, to drop thru 1391, and that will accelerate the downside.  A move thru 1392-1399 is sideways action. At this writing, five hours before the opening bell, the S&P's are up five which sends the bulls towards that potential touch of 1400.

8/12/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42

8/3/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41; go long 1377; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +9.5%)(Keybot this trade = -1.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.2%)(Actual this trade = -3.3%; Actual for 2012 = +2.5%)

Note Added 8/7/12 at 10:23 AM:  Keybot is now tracking 43.75 for JJC so use that as the level of interest and not the 44.  The market bulls will run substantially higher if JJC 43.75 gives way to the upside.  The bears will begin a downside move if they can prevent JJC 43.75. As this message is written, the JJC is printing 43.66.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to start the new trading week and first full week of trading for August. The SPX parked itself on important and strong resistance at 1391. Above 1391 leads the way to 1403. For the bulls to move markets over 1400 and higher, copper must cooperate. Use JJC 44 as a guide. If JJC moves above 44, now at 42.61, the bulls will move substantially to the upside, well over SPX 1400 on the way to 1425.  The bears must prevent JJC 44 with all their might.

For the SPX, bulls need to touch 1394 and the upside will run over 1400 in short order, and then JJC 44 will decide if the upside is limited, or not. The bears need to see red futures overnight tonight and start the week on a down note, keeping the SPX under 1391 and JJC under 44 to stop the upside momo. The markets remain very vulnerable as the two-month jagged sideways action continues.  The algo does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week so the program will print purely in response to the market action, or lack thereof. Extreme caution is warranted.

8/12/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42

8/3/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41; go long 1377; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +9.5%)(Keybot this trade = -1.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.2%)(Actual this trade = -3.3%; Actual for 2012 = +2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long thru the weekend. The algo idled along all day after the wild upside orgy occurred at the opening bell. The bulls ran higher and took no prisoners. Copper will play a key role come Monday. The markets will not be able to gain additonal upside without copper cooperating. Next weeks areas and levels of interest can be identifed on Sunday after the pre-scheduled print occurs.

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/3/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41; go long 1377; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +9.5%)(Keybot this trade = -1.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.2%)(Actual this trade = -3.3%; Actual for 2012 = +2.5%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

The last back-to-back whipsaw day was in late April just before markets topped and rolled over. The SPX moves thru a sideways 1270-1420 range, 150 handles, for over seven months.

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
8/3/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1377; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 9.5%; Keybot algo is up 9.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 2.5%. Stay alert for a whipsaw.
8/2/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 11:42 AM EST at SPX 1360; for th eyear thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.1%; Keybot algo is up 10.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%.
7/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1349; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.2%; Keybot algo is up 9.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.4%.
7/23/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1348; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.2%; Keybot algo is up 9.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.8%.
7/13/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:38 AM EST at SPX 1342; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.7%; Keybot algo is up 9.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.8%.
7/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:57 AM EST at SPX 1354; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.6%; Keybot algo is up 8.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.9%.
6/29/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:59 AM EST at SPX 1351; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.4%; Keybot algo is up 8.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.4%.
6/21/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 1:39 PM EST at SPX 1334; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.0%; Keybot algo is up 9.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 9.2%.
6/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:02 AM EST at SPX 1305; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 3.7%; Keybot algo is up 7.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%.
5/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:55 AM EST at SPX 1382; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 9.9%; Keybot algo is up 1.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 2.0%.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side at the open today at SPX 1377. The whipsaw trade results in a one percent loss for the program and a three percent loss in the actual trading. Note that the benchmark SPX is up almost 10% in 2012. The gap-up and gap-down opening moves in the markets are a nuisance. The quant will now trade the single ETF's for the next 45 days to reduce risk since the markets whipsawed and have proven to be too erratic and indecisive.  Keybot moved into SPY today. Exercise continued caution, it would not be unreasonable to see a whipsaw back to the short side late today or early next week. Copper, which typically leads the markets, remains weak and continues to support the bear side. All other major sectors are on board with the bulls. SPX 1391 is strong overhead resistance. Watch XLF 14.50 and NYA 7760, handily in bull territory now.

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/3/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41; go long 1377; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +9.5%)(Keybot this trade = -1.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.2%)(Actual this trade = -3.3%; Actual for 2012 = +2.5%)

8/3/12; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm says stay short

8/2/12; 3:54 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39 but algorithm says stay short

8/2/12; 2:18 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38

8/2/12; 2:03 PM EST = +16; signal line is +39

8/2/12; 12:58 PM EST = +30; signal line is +39

8/2/12; 11:42 AM EST = +16; signal line is +38; go short 1360; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.1%)(Keybot this trade = +0.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +10.4%)(Actual this trade = +0.4%; Actual for 2012 = +5.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN IS IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short but will likely flip to the long side at the opening bell.  The pre-scheduled number prints and the algo number remains above the signal line which is bullish.  The XLF is 14.63 pre-market well above the 14.51 the bulls needed. The Jobs Report results in very bullish futures, the SPX set to attack the 1375 level mentioned last evening.  Interestingly, the quant would have flipped long in the final minutes yesterday if the XLF would have gained only a measley two pennies more.

Keybot will likely move to the long side after the opening bell and take its lumps on the one day whipsaw trade. Since it will be a whipsaw move, the model will now trade only the single ETF's moving forward for about 45 days to lower risk. Markets are very much in a jagged sideways path, a very difficult trading environment.  A turn is imminent but caution is required, look for more wild gyrations in the days ahead, and of course, a whipsaw back to the short side either today or early next week. Keybot's turn to the long side will be updated and posted this morning.

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/3/12; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm says stay short

8/2/12; 3:54 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant finishes the day on the short side with high drama.  The NYA recovered back above 7760 which created further market buoyancy into the close. The XLF moved up towards 14.50 but fell back to close at 14.48. Note that the algo number is now above the signal line so the quant wants to flip back to the long side but other programming rules are holding it back.  Interestingly, if XLF 14.51 would have printed, only pennies away, Keybot would have probably flipped to the long side. This drama continues into tomorrow. At XLF 14.51 and higher, Keybot will probably flip back to the long side. If XLF remains under 14.50, the algo will likely stay on the short side.

For the SPX, starting at 1365, the bulls need 1375 to launch an upside acceleration.  The bears need to push under 1355 to accelerate the downside.  A move thru 1356-1364 is sideways action but unlikely since the Jobs Report at 8:30 AM EST should send markets one way or the other. The markets are parked on the fence, equal distance to the bull and bear sides, and the financials, XLF, will be the decider. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 9 AM so the action can be updated right before the opening bell.  XLF 14.50, NYA 7760, and SPX 1375 and 1355 will tell the story tomorrow. Caution is required. XLF 14.50 is what matters.

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/3/12; 9:00 AM EST =

8/2/12; 3:54 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39 but algorithm says stay short

8/2/12; 2:18 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo is motoring along dealing with gyrations in volatility. Keep watching VIX 18.80, XLF 14.50 and NYA 7760.  The quant is now tracking the semiconductors closely as well; watch SOX 377. Markets remain unstable.

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/3/12; 9:00 AM EST =

8/2/12; 2:18 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38

8/2/12; 2:03 PM EST = +16; signal line is +39

8/2/12; 12:58 PM EST = +30; signal line is +39

8/2/12; 11:42 AM EST = +16; signal line is +38; go short 1360; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.1%)(Keybot this trade = +0.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +10.4%)(Actual this trade = +0.4%; Actual for 2012 = +5.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at 11:42 AM at SPX 1360.  Weakness in the financials sector, as well as the NYA Index, and the spike higher in volatility are causing the market selloff.  As always, stay alert for a whipsaw. The algo program gained almost a percent on the last trade, the actual trading gained almost a half percent. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS on the move to the short side. Caution is warranted. Markets are unstable.

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =

8/3/12; 9:00 AM EST =

8/2/12; 11:42 AM EST = +16; signal line is +38; go short 1360; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.1%)(Keybot this trade = +0.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +10.4%)(Actual this trade = +0.4%; Actual for 2012 = +5.8%)

8/2/12; 11:40 AM EST = +16; signal line is +37 but algorithm says stay long

8/2/12; 11:37 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37 but algorithm says stay long

8/2/12; 11:05 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36

8/2/12; 10:13 AM EST = +60; signal line is +35

8/2/12; 9:39 AM EST = +44; signal line is +33

8/2/12; 9:37 AM EST = +30; signal line is +32 but algorithm says stay long

8/1/12; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +31

8/1/12; 10:35 AM EST = +60; signal line is +28

7/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +46; signal line is +27

7/31/12; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +27

7/31/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +26

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +26

7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +26

7/27/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +25

7/26/12; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +24

7/26/12; 3:38 PM EST = +60; signal line is +25

7/26/12; 3:26 PM EST = +46; signal line is +24

7/26/12; 2:53 PM EST = +30; signal line is +25

7/26/12; 2:14 PM EST = +14; signal line is +25 but algorithm says stay long

7/26/12; 1:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26

7/26/12; 11:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +27 but algorithm says stay long

7/26/12; 11:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27

7/26/12; 11:06 AM EST = +14; signal line is +27 but algorithm says stay long

7/26/12; 10:43 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27

7/26/12; 9:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +28

7/26/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +28; go long 1349; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +7.2%)(Keybot this trade = -0.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.6%)(Actual this trade = -3.4%; Actual for 2012 = +5.4%)