STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend and did not print any other numbers in the Friday session after the 10 AM pre-scheduled number. The bulls ran the indexes higher wall-to-wall in the holiday-shortened week of trading. Once the retail sector joined the bull camp on Thursday, equities were headed to the SPX 1920's. The SPX prints new all-time intraday highs on all four days.

The dollar strengthened last week only to pull back late week, however, that strength is causing weakness in copper and commodities. The algo is tracking JJC and GTX and levels can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints. The hope for market bears is a higher dollar which will send copper and commodities lower and stall the market upside. The bulls are cruising.

6/1/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/30/14; 10:00 AM EST = +79; signal line is +59

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long all week. The bulls keep pushing. The RTH is up to 58.96 well above the 58.59 bull-bear in the line. Bulls want to continue the party into the weekend. Copper weakens and turns negative. Commodities leak lower this week as well as the dollar shows signs of strength, therefore, these two areas may come into play next week.

Equities remain overbot as defined by the algo at +79 and +80 and these high readings do not occur often. The algo is limited as +100 as a maximum and -100 as a minimum and further gains higher are probably not likely since many parameters are data-based which change more slowly over time. Bears need RTH under 58.59 or they got nothing. The SPX prints a new all-time intraday high at 1921.30.

6/1/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/30/14; 10:00 AM EST = +79; signal line is +59

5/29/14; 10:30 AM EST = +80; signal line is +58

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bullish rally continues. The bears put up a fight for the first hour of trading yesterday and then once the RTH went above 58.58, with the SPX at 1912, the fix was in for a bull victory. The SPX punched above 1914.50 so the acceleration was on tap and price closed at 1920. The algo is tracking RTH 58.59 as the key parameter affecting market direction. The bulls are on easy street, however, the lofty +80 algo number indicates a very overbot market. Bears got nothing unless they push RTH back under 58.59 and interestingly, ANN and BIG retail earnings are out today which will impact the retail sector.

For the SPX starting at 1920, having closed on the high, the bulls only need a hair of green in the S&P futures and equities will accelerate higher at the opening bell, however, S&P futures are -2 and have been negative overnight. The bears need to push SPX under 1910 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1911-1919 is sideways action. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the trading session begins. Equities are erratic and unstable. Equities are overbot as per the algo number. Traders are complacent and worry free.

6/1/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/30/14; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/14; 10:30 AM EST = +80; signal line is +58

5/27/14; 10:52 AM EST = +64; signal line is +57

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Thursday trading session with only two days remaining in the month of May. May began at SPX 1884 so the month is positive by 26 points. The algo did not print any numbers on Wednesday. The market bulls sent RTH to 58.58 but did not have the oomph to move above, so equities hit a ceiling. The bulls need stronger retail stocks to move higher. Even though the bears are preventing RTH 58.58, they cannot gain any headway lower without weaker financials, copper and/or commodities. The recent strength in the dollar may create weakness in copper and commodities.

For the SPX starting at 1910, the bulls need to push above 1914.50 and an upside acceleration to 1920 is on tap. The bears need to push under 1907 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1908-1913 is sideways action. The bulls are in control but will not push markets higher without RTH 58.58 cooperating.

6/1/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/30/14; 10:00 AM EST =

5/27/14; 10:52 AM EST = +64; signal line is +57

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Wednesday session. RTH sits exactly on the bull-bear line in the sand at 58.58 but price was under for much of the afternoon. RTH 58.58 tells the market story for Wednesday. Market bulls win with RTH above 58.58. Market bears win with the RTH below 58.58. The bulls are in full control. The bears need to keep RTH under 58.58 to simply stop equities from moving higher. The bears then need to weaken financials and utilities to gain downside traction.

For the SPX starting at new all-time highs at 1912, the bulls only need a hair of green to show in the overnight S&P futures and it is off to the races higher again with the SPX gaining several handles towards 1920. The bears must keep the futures negative and push SPX under 1902 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1903-1911 is sideways action. 

5/30/14; 10:00 AM EST =

5/27/14; 10:52 AM EST = +64; signal line is +57

5/27/14; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +57

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new holiday-shortened week of trading begins. RTH jumps above 58.61 at the opening bell creating bull fuel. Watch 58.59 as the bull-bear line in the sand. Above RTH 58.60 market bulls are fine. Below RTH 58.58 and market bears will have the upper hand.

The SPX prints a new intraday all-time record high with HOD thus far at 1911.39. Bears can create a ceiling in the markets if they move RTH under 58.58. Bulls will run higher all day long if they maintain RTH above 58.60. The bulls are cruising. Note the elevated +80 reading for the algo number, a very lofty level for the oscillator indicating strong bullish conditions but at the same time a potential meaningful top approaching. Watch RTH 58.59 since it is the rudder steering the market ship direction today.

5/30/14; 10:00 AM EST =

5/27/14; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +57

5/27/14; 9:36 AM EST = +80; signal line is +56

5/25/14; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the holiday weekend. The retail sector holds the key for bulls and will determine if the SPX moves far above 1900, or not. Watch RTH 58.61 as the bull-bear line in the sand. RTH is now at 58.54 causing market negativity. Bulls need only 7 pennies and the victory flag can be waved and the wine will be flowing like water. Bears must hold RTH 58.61, otherwise, they will crumble.

Bears need weaker financials to gain downside traction, XLF 21.85, but bulls are running the XLF above 22. Utilities are back on Keybot's radar screen and the algo is starting to track UTIL 519.51 (now at 534.02 creating market bullishness) and this number is the same for the entire week ahead. Markets will noticeable weaken if UTIL loses 520 and in fact, the bulls must keep UTIL above 520 here on out.

For the SPX starting at 1901, the bulls only need a smidge of positivity in the futures and this will launch a several handle move in the SPX easily punching up through the all-time record high at 1902.17 moving towards 1905-1910. The bears must create negative futures overnight, otherwise, another day of pain is ahead. The bears must push below 1893 to regain their downside mojo. A move through 1894-1900 is sideways action to begin the week.

Bulls and bears continue to fight it out. Caution is warranted for a potential flip to the downside but bears got nothing without creating weaker financials and/or utilities. If RTH takes out 58.61, the SPX will likely target 1910-1930 and the caution flag will immediately disappear as the bulls cruise higher. Bears better give up the Memorial Day fun today and instead eat their Wheaties and show up with a game face tomorrow morning, otherwise, they will fold like a cheap suit. Keybot begins the week by printing a pre-scheduled number early in the Tuesday session and another on Friday morning.

6/1/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/30/14; 10:00 AM EST =

5/27/14; 10:00 AM EST =

5/25/14; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +56

5/22/14; 9:44 AM EST = +64; signal line is +55; go long 1889; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +2.2%)(Keybot this trade = -0.5%; Keybot for 2014 = +2.4%)(Actual this trade = -1.1%; Actual for 2014 = -0.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long through the 3-day holiday weekend. Trading does not resume until Tuesday morning. The bulls run strongly higher fueled by strong financials, semiconductors and copper, and lower volatility. The VIX is at lows not seen since March 2013 over one year ago.

The retail sector is the fly in the ointment for bulls since they must go up through RTH 58.61 to guarantee the SPX running strongly above 1900. The SPX closed above 1900 for the first time in history on Friday. The RTH came up for a HOD at 58.57 so the bulls were pushing the retail stocks as hard as possible, but, fell a few pennies short. RTH 58.61 will determine the fate of bulls and bears come Tuesday. Bulls win above RTH 58.61. Bears win if the RTH remains under 58.61.

Any other areas and levels of interest can be highlighted after the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints. The imminent turn notation remains in place since the bears could reverse the rosy outlook in quick order. The algo number is only nine points above the signal line. Markets remain in an erratic sideways bull-bear struggle. Happy Memorial Day. 

5/25/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/22/14; 9:44 AM EST = +64; signal line is +55; go long 1889; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +2.2%)(Keybot this trade = -0.5%; Keybot for 2014 = +2.4%)(Actual this trade = -1.1%; Actual for 2014 = -0.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday after the opening bell. The bears put up a fight on Wednesday but folded like a cheap suit yesterday. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw either today or Tuesday especially in these choppy sideways roller coaster markets. The algo program lost one-half percent on the last trade and the actual trading lost -1.1%. The benchmark SPX is now up over +2% on the year. Keybot cycled out of SDS and into SSO remaining in the leveraged ETF's. The actual trading return for 2014 turns negative as the choppy markets eat up profits. The imminent turn status remains since the bears could easily turn the tables on the bulls again but only if the bank and financial stocks are driven lower.

The financials run higher so the bulls are on easy street. XLF is at 21.97 well above the 21.83 bull-bear line in the sand so the living is easy for bulls. The algo is tracking financials and retail, XLF 21.83 and RTH 58.62, respectively. Bears need XLF under 21.83 or they got nothing. Bulls need RTH above 58.62 to send the SPX above 1900 and higher. If RTH remains under 58.62, the upside for equities is limited, however, strong selling will not enter markets unless XLF loses 21.83.

The algo is also showing interest in utilities which have not been on the radar for quite some time. For next week, UTIL 519.51 is very important. Generally, UTIL must remain above 520 here forward, otherwise, weakness will enter the broad markets.

For the SPX starting at 1892, on the last day of trading before the holiday (US markets will not reopen until Tuesday morning, 5/27/14), the bulls need to push up through 1896 and the 1897 resistance will be toast with price moving above 1900 attacking 1902 resistance all in quick order. The bears need to push under 1885 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1886-1895 is sideways action to end the week. 

5/25/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/22/14; 9:44 AM EST = +64; signal line is +55; go long 1889; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +2.2%)(Keybot this trade = -0.5%; Keybot for 2014 = +2.4%)(Actual this trade = -1.1%; Actual for 2014 = -0.3%)

5/21/14; 9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains short

5/20/14; 9:39 AM EST = +48; signal line is +55

5/19/14; 2:22 PM EST = +64; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short

5/19/14; 2:12 PM EST = +48; signal line is +53

5/19/14; 1:42 PM EST = +34; signal line is +53

5/19/14; 12:38 PM EST = +48; signal line is +53

5/19/14; 12:18 PM EST = +64; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short

5/18/14; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52

5/16/14; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +52

5/16/14; 9:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +53

5/15/14; 3:41 PM EST = +49; signal line is +53

5/15/14; 3:26 PM EST = +33; signal line is +53

5/15/14; 2:58 PM EST = +49; signal line is +54

5/15/14; 10:10 AM EST = +33; signal line is +54

5/15/14; 9:41 AM EST = +49; signal line is +55; go short 1880; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +1.7%)(Keybot this trade = +0.3%; Keybot for 2014 = +2.9%)(Actual this trade = +0.4%; Actual for 2014 = +0.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short which is a surprise with the bulls running today. XLF took out 21.83 from the get-go so you knew it would be a bullish day wall-to-wall, which it was. Interestingly, the algo will not yet latch properly to permit the move to the long side. Keybot was within one minute of flipping long today four different times; at 11 AM, 2 PM, 3:15 PM and minutes before the closing bell, but the program would not latch. If the SPX gains only one measly point, moving above 1889, and remaining above for a few minutes, Keybot will likely flip long. If equities gap up on Thursday morning, Keybot will likely delay the move to the long side for approximately 90 minutes since a gap-up timer would be activated and prevent the immediate flip to the bull side. The bears need XLF under 21.83 (now four pennies above in the bull camp at 21.87) or they got nothing.

For the SPX starting at 1888, the bulls need to touch the 1889 handle and an upside acceleration will occur to 1891 then immediately upward to 1897 and then 1900 plus. So watch the overnight S&P futures to see if the bulls can muster up one point, or not. The bears need to push under 1873 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1874-1888 is sideways action.

5/25/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/21/14; 9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains short

5/20/14; 9:39 AM EST = +48; signal line is +55

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Wednesday session. XLF is under the 21.83 bull-bear line in the sand causing broad market weakness. Market bears are fine and will continue to send markets lower as long as XLF stays under 21.83. Bulls will recover strongly if XLF regains 21.83. Keybot will likely flip long if the XLF recovers above 21.83 and SPX  prints 1885 and higher.

For the SPX starting at 1873, the bulls need 12 points higher, to punch up through 1885 to unleash an upside acceleration and chart the path to 1891, 1897, 1900 and higher. The bears need to push under 1868, five points lower, to accelerate the downside. A move through 1869-1884 is sideways action.

5/25/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/20/14; 9:39 AM EST = +48; signal line is +55

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Tuesday trading session is underway. XLF collapses under 21.83 so the weaker banks create the broad market weakness. The bears have the ball to begin the day. Watch XLF 21.83; the bull-bear line in the sand. Keybot can return to a position to go long if XLF recovers above 21.83 and SPX  prints 1886 and higher.

Current print is XLF at 21.77 and SPX at 1880. The sideways choppiness continues.

5/25/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/20/14; 9:39 AM EST = +48; signal line is +55

5/19/14; 2:22 PM EST = +64; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. The algo number is above the signal line but the program cannot yet latch all the necessary parameters to permit the move to the long side. If the SPX prints above 1886, and remains above, Keybot will likely flip long. A gap-up timer may activate preventing the move long for about 90 minutes time but the S&P futures are -2 so the gap-up timer will likely not activate.

Watch retail versus financials. The financials and semiconductors pumped the markets higher yesterday. Watch XLF 21.83. Price is at 21.86 three cents on the bull side creating market bullishness. Watch RTH 58.65. Price is at 58.35 thirty cents on the bear side creating market negativity. Bulls need RTH above 58.65 but this may be tricky since HD just reported a miss on earnings. Bears need XLF under 21.83 to create selling and weaker markets. The EU just brought charges of rate-rigging against three banks so this may cause weakness in the financials.

For the SPX starting at 1885, the bulls only need one point, to push above 1886, and there is nothing but blue skies above, Keybot will likely flip long, and the path to SPX 1891 then 1900 begins. The bears need to push under 1873 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1874-1885 is sideways action. The bears are driving the bus but the bulls already have one hand on the wheel and will likely take over if the SPX moves above 1886 and higher. Watch XLF 21.83 today since it will dictate broad market direction.

5/25/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/19/14; 2:22 PM EST = +64; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short

5/19/14; 2:12 PM EST = +48; signal line is +53

5/19/14; 1:42 PM EST = +34; signal line is +53

5/19/14; 12:38 PM EST = +48; signal line is +53

5/19/14; 12:18 PM EST = +64; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short

5/18/14; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend. The algo is primarily tracking financials, retail and semiconductors as the main drives of market direction currently. Bulls will verify the upward path for equities with RTH 58.66 and/or XLF 21.85. If either one turns bullish, and the SPX moves any amount higher above 1878, and both remain above these levels, Keybot will likely flip back to the long side. If equities run higher but retail or financials do not reach the levels shown, then the bulls got nothing and the move higher will fade. The bears need weaker semiconductors with SOX 570 (now at 576 creating bullishness in markets) to create more downside market juice.

For the SPX starting the week at 1878, closing at the highs from Friday's late-day rally, the bulls only need a tiny smidge of green to show in overnight futures and the path higher will continue with the SPX gaining several more handles; price will move into the mid 1880's. The bears must keep the overnight futures negative or they will be in trouble from the start. The bears need to push the SPX under 1865 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1866-1877 is sideways action for Monday. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The bears are driving but the bulls want the wheel back so the imminent turn warning is in place. Watch XLF 21.85. Listen for any positive, or negative, comments concerning the banks.

5/25/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/18/14; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52

5/16/14; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Financials and retail remain weak. Semiconductors remain buoyant with SOX staggering sideways. Keep an eye on the SOX 569.90 bull-bear line in the sand. Equities will float out sideways into the weekend if semi's remain buoyant. If SOX fails 569.90, the markets will get ugly into the closing bell. SOX is currently printing 572-573 with three hours remaining in today's trade.

5/18/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/14; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +52

5/16/14; 9:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +53

5/15/14; 3:41 PM EST = +49; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 1880. The financials broke down from the get-go so you knew the markets were in trouble. Weakness in semiconductors must be monitored closely moving forward. Retail earnings were robust after the bell last evening so this may help the bulls mount a recovery. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw today or Monday. Keybot gained a smidge on the last trade as the markets exhibit sideways choppy behavior. The algo cycled out of SPY and into SDS and is now back into the double X ETF's since a 35-day timer has expired, triggered by the market whipsaw behavior. The sideways choppiness may now be resolving.

Watch SOX 569.90 (now causing bullishness at 570 only pennies above), XLF 21.85 (now causing bearishness at 21.72) and RTH 58.66 (now causing bearishness at 57.72). The fight appears to be financials versus semi's. Bulls need XLF 21.85 to stop the market selling. Bears need SOX under 569.90, only pennies away, to create another broad market down leg.

For the SPX starting at 1871, the bulls have to recover yesterdays down move and return to 1888 to get their mojo back, a formidable task, so instead the bulls will focus on boosting financial and semiconductor stocks. The bears need to push under 1862.50 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1863-1887 is sideways action into the weekend. The bears are driving the bus again. How far will they travel? Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this morning one before the opening bell and one after.

5/18/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/14; 10:00 AM EST =

5/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =

5/15/14; 3:41 PM EST = +49; signal line is +53

5/15/14; 3:26 PM EST = +33; signal line is +53

5/15/14; 2:58 PM EST = +49; signal line is +54

5/15/14; 10:10 AM EST = +33; signal line is +54

5/15/14; 9:41 AM EST = +49; signal line is +55; go short 1880; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +1.7%)(Keybot this trade = +0.3%; Keybot for 2014 = +2.9%)(Actual this trade = +0.4%; Actual for 2014 = +0.8%)

5/15/14; 9:36 AM EST = +49; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains long

5/14/14; 9:36 AM EST = +65; signal line is +55

5/12/14; 12:17 PM EST = +81; signal line is +53

5/12/14; 11:42 AM EST = +65; signal line is +51

5/12/14; 10:46 AM EST = +81; signal line is +51

5/11/14; 7:00 PM EST = +65; signal line is +50

5/9/14; 11:22 AM EST = +65; signal line is +50

5/9/14; 10:42 AM EST = +49; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long

5/9/14; 10:16 AM EST = +65; signal line is +50

5/9/14; 10:01 AM EST = +49; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long

5/9/14; 9:55 AM EST = +65; signal line is +51

5/9/14; 9:47 AM EST = +49; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

5/9/14; 9:36 AM EST = +65; signal line is +51

5/7/14; 2:34 PM EST = +49; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

5/7/14; 12:44 PM EST = +33; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

5/7/14; 11:49 AM EST = +49; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

5/6/14; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

5/5/14; 10:14 AM EST = +49; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long

5/5/14; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long

5/4/14; 7:00 PM EST = +49; signal line is +48

5/2/14; 10:47 AM EST = +49; signal line is +47

5/2/14; 9:42 AM EST = +65; signal line is +45

5/2/14; 9:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +43

4/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +49; signal line is +42

4/29/14; 11:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +40

4/29/14; 10:00 AM EST = +65; signal line is +39

4/29/14; 9:31 AM EST = +65; signal line is +36; go long 1874; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +1.4%)(Keybot this trade = -0.8%; Keybot for 2014 = +2.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +0.4%)

April 2014 Market Chronology Available from Amazon

Keystone the Scribe, one of Keybot's sister blog sites, releases the latest issue of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics April 2014-04 available on Amazon's Kindle. A handy link is provided in the left margin. All the recent eBook links are provided in the margins.

If you are a seasoned professional trader or a novice wanting to learn how and why markets move in real-time, the daily chronology series are the books for you. The eBooks detail market reactions to the Monthly Jobs Reports, Fed meetings, economic data, earnings releases and geopolitical events. Business and economic teachers and students enjoy the chronologies since textbook theory comes to life. Read about how the IPO frenzy and global M&A orgy are affecting markets. Become educated on how Ukraine turmoil affects global markets and currencies.

As always, special thanks to the international support for the K E Stone Blog Series of Web Sites especially the strong following from major money centers in New York, Chicago, London, Frankfurt, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Sydney and the loyal following from the US, Canada, Mexico, Australia, UK, Germany, France, Russia, China (yes, Russia and China) and Malaysia. The blog sites only continue with the ongoing support of the entire readership, all followers large and small, professional and novice. Keystone the Scribe is the respected world leader in providing historical context for global markets and world economics. Read the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics April 2014-04 issue today to gain a vital market edge.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo is fixated on retail and financials tracking RTH 58.69 and XLF 21.85. Very simply, bulls win if RTH moves above 58.69 but bears will win if XLF drops under 21.85. Equities will float along sideways with a slight upward bias if the status quo remains with the retail sector causing market negativity now and the financials causing market bullishness.

For the SPX starting at 1889, the bulls need to push above 1897 to accelerate the upside immediately to 1902. The bears need to push only three points lower, under 1886, to accelerate the downside. A move through 1887-1896 is sideways action today. If XLF drops under 21.85, and the SPX drops under 1886, and both remain under, Keybot will likely flip short. The bulls are driving the bus but bears are wrestling for the steering wheel. The retail earnings today, especially WMT, will likely dictate the RTH and the direction of the overall markets.

5/18/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/14; 10:00 AM EST =

5/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =

5/14/14; 9:36 AM EST = +65; signal line is +55

5/12/14; 12:17 PM EST = +81; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algo number pulls back from the overbot conditions above +80. The retail sector is beaten today, RTH drops under 58.69, now down at 58.48, so equities sell off and a lid is placed on the market upside. The bears next need financials, XLF 21.86, to gain further downside juice. XLF is printing at 22-ish. Market bulls will resume the climb higher if RTH moves above 58.69 so pay attention to any news concerning retail stocks.

If the XLF drops under 21.86, and the SPX drops under 1891, and both remain under, Keybot may flip to the short side. Thus, the caution flag is out. Bulls are maintaining low volatility (VIX) which prevents the bears from making a run lower under SPX 1891 support. Bears need a higher VIX.

5/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =

5/14/14; 9:36 AM EST = +65; signal line is +55

5/12/14; 12:17 PM EST = +81; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are cruising with their feet up on the dash. The algo did not print any numbers in the Tuesday session. The bears need to push RTH under 58.69 to place a ceiling on the market upside, otherwise, equities will continue floating higher.

The SPX prints a new all-time intraday high above 1902. For the SPX starting at 1897, the bulls need to push above 1902 to accelerate the upside which will target 1910. The bears need to push only one point lower, under 1896, to accelerate the downside. A move through 1897-1901 is sideways action. Since it is such a tight range a winner will be decided. Bulls win above 1902. Bears win under 1896. S&P futures are -3 about one hour before the opening bell. The bulls are in full party mode with the algorithm in rare overbot territory. Bears got nothing without lower retail stocks.

5/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =

5/12/14; 12:17 PM EST = +81; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long and the bulls came to play today slapping the bears silly with copper and retail. JJC is far above 37.48 guaranteeing bull fuel. RTH moved above 58.68 (the algo constantly recalculates this number so the 58.68 is the key level after the opening bell today instead of the 58.78 mentioned in the prior post) creating the upside market orgy. Bulls are cruising.

The algo number is 81 signaling a market overbot condition. At its heart, the Keybot algorithm is an oscillator. This is why it can function on both sides of the tape, bull or bear. Examples of oscillators are the RSI, MACD and stochastic indicators on charts. When the oscillator climbs to +70 or +80 or higher conditions are overbot and a pull back is in order while a drop to -70 or -80 or lower is oversold conditions requiring a bounce. So there is likely more drama ahead, however, the bears got nothing unless they push RTH under 58.68.

For the SPX starting at 1897, the bulls need less than one point higher, to simply print at 1897 and higher, and an upside acceleration will catapult price above 1900 and several handles more. Since RTH 58.68 is so key to market direction, the Retail Sales number at 8:30 AM will decide the fate of markets. The data will push RTH one way or the other and the broad indexes will follow the retail sector. Watch to see if the S&P futures print any hint of green overnight, if so, SPX 1900+ is coming. The bears must keep the overnight futures negative with all their might. Bears need to push under 1880, a formidable task, so instead the bears will focus on pushing RTH under 58.68 which will stop the broad market upside. A move through 1881-1897 is sideways action for Tuesday.

5/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =

5/12/14; 12:17 PM EST = +81; signal line is +53

5/12/14; 11:42 AM EST = +65; signal line is +51

5/12/14; 10:46 AM EST = +81; signal line is +51

5/11/14; 7:00 PM EST = +65; signal line is +50

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long to begin the new week of trading. Bulls need RTH 58.78 to confirm solid upside ahead and the SPX will plot the path to 1900. Bears need either XLF 21.83 and/or JJC 37.48 to stop the market upside and create selling pressure. If retail remains bearish and financials and copper remains bullish, respectively, then equities float along sideways with a slight upward bias.

For the SPX starting at strong S/R at 1878, the bulls only need less than one point higher, to touch the 1879 handle, and a several handle run will occur to 1884 in quick order then perhaps 1891. The bears need to push under 1867 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1868-1878 is sideways action for Monday. S&P futures are +3 on Sunday evening. Watch copper overnight. Positive copper will create happy bulls. Negative copper will create happy bears.

5/18/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/14; 10:00 AM EST =

5/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =

5/11/14; 7:00 PM EST = +65; signal line is +50

5/9/14; 11:22 AM EST = +65; signal line is +50

Note Added 7:12 PM on 5/12/14: Bulls create a big up day with the RTH moving above the critical 58.68-58.78 level closing at 58.83. This bull fuel sends the SPX up 18 points to 1897.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. The algo had an active day on Friday with lots more to and fro between bulls and bears. Sideways choppiness. The bulls push copper, JJC, above 37.48, so they ultimately win the day. Financials, XLF, teased under 21.83 for a few minutes but the bears folded like a cheap suit and after 11 AM the bulls were running higher on the copper victory train.

Keybot was in position to flip short all week long but the parameters would not completely latch to allow the move to the short side. For the algo to want to flip short all week (algo number under signal line) but the internal rules to hold it back, has never happened in the history of the algo for five consecutive days. At most, one or two days will occur before the algo would flip direction. Note that the week ends with the bulls in sync with the algo number above the signal line. The bears threatened all week long but never had the energy.

Financials and copper will remain key on Monday. Also commodities. Bulls will set their sights on the retail sector next week and earnings from M, KSS and others are on tap. The retail sector will determine if the SPX moves above 1900 and higher, or not. If JJC drops under 37.48 or XLF under 21.83, a ceiling will be placed on the market upside. The imminent turn notation remains since bears can reverse the uptrend at any time with weaker financials and/or copper. The set up for next week can be posted once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

5/11/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/9/14; 11:22 AM EST = +65; signal line is +50

5/9/14; 10:42 AM EST = +49; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long

5/9/14; 10:16 AM EST = +65; signal line is +50

5/9/14; 10:01 AM EST = +49; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long

5/9/14; 9:55 AM EST = +65; signal line is +51

5/9/14; 9:47 AM EST = +49; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

5/9/14; 9:36 AM EST = +65; signal line is +51

5/7/14; 2:34 PM EST = +49; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long through the sideways choppy markets and did not print any numbers in the Thursday session. The atypical behavior continues with the algo wanting to go short, but not yet latching properly to permit the move, for four days. The bulls receive the upside juice from financials and nearly brought copper into the bull camp yesterday which would confirm new all-time highs coming for the SPX. Watch JJC 37.48. JJC ran up to 37.42 but then petered out closing at 37.27. Bull victory is signaled with JJC 37.48. Copper is trading flat at this writing about 4-1/2 hours before the US opening bell for stocks.

Watch XLF 21.83. Bears need to push under or they got nothing. Bears will benefit from weaker financials, commodities and higher volatility. Bulls will benefit from higher copper and a higher retail sector. For the SPX starting at 1876, the bulls need to push above 1889, 13-handles higher, and price will immediately spike to 1891 and likely continue to 1897. The bears need to push under 1870, 6 points lower, to accelerate the downside. A move through 1871-1888 is sideways action to finish the week. S&P futures are -4 slipping from the flat line a couple hours ago. If the SPX drops to the 1864-1870 area, Keybot will likely flip short. Bulls need JJC 37.48. Bears need XLF 21.83. Copper and financials will provide the market answer for the Friday session.

5/11/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/7/14; 2:34 PM EST = +49; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

5/7/14; 12:44 PM EST = +33; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long through the roller coaster sideways choppy action. The bears push the SPX down to an 1859 handle but that was short-lived and within 2 to 3 minutes markets recover. Keybot needs the key levels to hold for several minutes before they are locked in. So the bulls jam financials higher and ride the banks to victory today. XLF is 21.88 one nickel above the critical 21.83 bull-bear line in the sand. Bulls will continue floating equity markets higher with XLF above 21.83. Bears will send equities lower if XLF fails at 21.83. Financials are the key parameter dictating market direction currently.

Bulls need higher copper to confirm the path higher so keep an eye on it overnight. Watch JJC 37.42. Bears will receive downside market fuel with VIX 14.59 but volatility remains limp each day. Watch the banks. For the SPX starting at 1878, the bulls only need one point, to touch the 1879 handle and bingo, an acceleration will occur to 1884 then 1891. So watch for any positivity in the overnight S&P futures. The bears need to send price down to the lows from Wednesday at 1860 to regain mojo, a formidable task. Instead, bears will likely focus on financials with all their might and consider Thursday a victory if they can send XLF under 21.83.

Keybot wants to go short since Monday but the necessary parameters and rules will not latch as yet so Keybot remains long. If the SPX drops under 1854-1860 on Thursday, Keybot will likely flip short, otherwise, will likely remain long. There may be only one other time in the algo's five-year history that the algo number and signal line have disagreed with the algo direction for more than three days. This behavior is testimony to the bull-bear struggle ongoing. Markets are very unstable. The beat goes on.

5/11/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/7/14; 2:34 PM EST = +49; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

5/7/14; 12:44 PM EST = +33; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

5/7/14; 11:49 AM EST = +49; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

5/6/14; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market price antics continue. Monday closes at the SPX price highs and Tuesday at the price lows. XLF collapses through the important 21.82 identified by the algo so equities weaken. Bears need VIX 14.60 or GTX 4943 to receive further bear fuel. Keybot has wanted to go short since Monday but the internal latching continues to not line up properly to create the move to the bear side. The SPX drops yesterday to 1867 but Keybot needed another one point or more to help create the move to the bear side. Bulls need XLF back above 21.82 or JJC 37.42 to stop the market downside. 

This is unique price action currently since the model does not remain in one direction, while the algo number and signal line number remain in the other direction, for more than a couple days time. Thus, something should occur today to firmly decide on market direction. There are other programming rules in place now due to the odd price action so even if the SPX drops at the opening bell a gap-down or percent-drop timer may click into place to prevent the move to the short side.

In general, Keybot should flip short if the SPX 1862-1868 level fails. There are too many moving parts to provide a more accurate estimate. Keybot will simply have to see the 1's and 0's and do its thing. The bulls are in charge but as evidenced by the algo number 18 points under the signal line, the algo wants to flip short. Bulls need XLF 21.82. Bears need VIX 14.60. Markets are very unstable.

5/11/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/6/14; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit go short the algo number now 18 points under the signal line. The internal latching, however, does not yet fall into place so the robot remains long unwilling to yet flip to the short side. Keybot likely needs to see the SPX under 1867 today to flip short. XLF failed at 21.82 at the opening bell which creates the market weakness today. Use XLF 21.82 as the rudder that steers the ship today. Bulls must regain XLF21.82 or they got nothing. XLF is printing 21.72 and appears to be weakening further.

5/11/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/6/14; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

5/5/14; 10:14 AM EST = +49; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after a bear trap occurs yesterday with early negativity followed by a sharp and quick reversal to the upside. Keybot wants to flip to the short side but internal programming rules will not yet allow the move. Financials are key. Watch XLF 21.82. Bulls are creating market upside with XLF at 21.90 eight pennies above the bull-bear line in the sand. Bulls need either RTH 58.83 and/or JJC 37.48 which would pave the way to SPX 1900. However, if the bulls cannot achieve at least one of these two goals (retail and copper, respectively), the bulls got nothing and the equity markets will stall and hit a ceiling.

Bears need the XLF under 21.82. GTX 4940 and VIX 14.60 will also create market negativity. Keybot will likely flip short if the SPX drops under 1867 today, a formidable task that is about 18-handles lower. Instead, bears may be content to wait another day and focus on keeping the retail sector and copper lower to stall the upside. The bulls need only one positive point, to push up through 1885.50 and an upside acceleration will occur tagging the 1891 resistance in quick order. A move through 1868-1885 is sideways action. S&P futures are flat a couple hours before the opening bell.

5/11/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/5/14; 10:14 AM EST = +49; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo is champing at the bit to go short. Internal programming rules are not yet properly latched so the move to the short side is prohibited, for now. If The SPX drops under 1867 in the remaining 90 minutes of trading today, Keybot will likely flip short. All five parameters mentioned in the previous missive are status quo so equities are trading flat.

The weakness at the opening bell was caused by financials. XLF failed at 21.80 creating the market negativity but shortly after 10 AM the XLF recovers back above 21.80 so equities recovered. This behavior identifies financials as the main driver of market direction currently. XLF is at 21.86 only a few slim pennies on the bull side. The XLF line in the sand is moving higher so market trouble will now occur under 21.82. Watch XLF 21.82 like a hawk since it provides the market directional answer into the closing bell. The beat goes on.

5/11/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/5/14; 10:14 AM EST = +49; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long

5/5/14; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long

5/4/14; 7:00 PM EST = +49; signal line is +48

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the Monday session. The bulls need either RTH 58.85 and/or JJC 37.50 to signal upside victory ahead and an SPX moving up through the 1891 resistance on the way to 1897-1900 and higher. The bears need either XLF under 21.80, GTX under 4937 and/or VIX above 14.62 to signal downside selling ahead for equities. If all five parameters remain in their respective bull and bear camps the broad indexes will stagger sideways.

For the SPX starting at 1881, the bulls need to move above 1891 to ignite the upside which will launch to 1897-1900 in quick order. The bears need to push under 1879 to accelerate the downside which will tag 1874 in a heartbeat and then price will set its sights on 1868. A move through 1880-1890 is sideways action. S&P futures are dead flat on Sunday evening as this message is typed.

Note that the algo number is only one thin point from the signal line. Markets are at an important inflection point and whichever parameter in the first paragraph flips will dictate market direction. If any one of the three parameters above turn bearish (XLF, GTX or VIX), and the SPX drops under 1879, Keybot will likely flip short. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week.

5/11/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/4/14; 7:00 PM EST = +49; signal line is +48

5/2/14; 10:47 AM EST = +49; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. The bulls pump the retail and copper sectors higher to create lift in the broad indexes. RTH moves above 58.85 to create market strength, but then drops back into the bear camp. Copper runs strongly higher but the bulls could only tap on the JJC 37.50 door and were unable to move above to unleash strong upside buying power in equities. Thus, markets continue sideways and these two parameters will be key on Monday. Bulls win if they pump retail or copper higher. Bears will win if they push financials or commodities lower as well as volatility higher. The VIX drops under 13 adding bull fuel. The week ahead and levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow. Note that the algo number is only two ticks from the signal line. The markets remain a coin flip.

5/4/14; 7:00 PM EST = 

5/2/14; 10:47 AM EST = +49; signal line is +47

5/2/14; 9:42 AM EST = +65; signal line is +45

5/2/14; 9:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +43

4/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +49; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The status is quo. Parameters remain in respective camps so markets stagger sideways. The algo did not print any numbers today. Bulls need either RTH 58.85 and/or JJC 37.48 to confirm the market upside and send the SPX above 1900. Bears need either XLF 21.80, GTX 4935 and/or VIX 14.63. The algo is now flagging commodities as potentially slipping into trouble (GTX). If one of these three parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 1878, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX starting at 1884, remaining sticky at the strong 1884 S/R level, the bulls need to touch the 1889 handle and the upside will accelerate directly through the strong 1891 resistance and move towards 1900 with a big-time bull party into the weekend. The bears need to push under 1878 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1879-1888 is sideways action and unlikely considering the Monthly Jobs Report hits at 8:30 AM EST and will immediately impact the S&P futures. So a winner and a loser will likely emerge after the jobs number; bulls need 5 or 6 positive S&P points to unleash the upside; bears need 5 or 6 negative points to unleash the downside. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow before the opening bell.

5/4/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/2/14; 9:00 AM EST =

4/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +49; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Thursday session. The algo did not print any numbers yesterday except for the end-of-month (EOM) number last evening. The bull-bear fight continues with SPX sitting at 1884 resistance. Bulls will receive upside fuel and target SPX above 1900 if RTH moves above 58.86 and/or JJC above 37.48. Bears will receive downside selling energy with XLF under 21.80 and/or VIX above 14.63. If all 4 parameters remain status quo, equities will stagger sideways.

For the SPX starting at 1884, the bulls need to push above 1885, only a point or so higher, and the upside party continues with a several handle pop higher to the 1891 resistance. The bears need to push under 1873 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1874-1884 is sideways action. S&P futures are flat to -1. The bulls are driving the bus but the algo number is only 7 points from the signal line. If XLF or VIX turn bearish as described above, either one, the imminent turn status will be in play. If the SPX then drops under 1873, Keybot will likely flip short. For now, the bulls are in control. Financials (XLF 21.80) are key.

5/4/14; 7:00 PM EST =

5/2/14; 9:00 AM EST =

4/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +49; signal line is +42

4/29/14; 11:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +40