STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as markets collapse. The algo was very active today printing six numbers. The month of July prints negative for the SPX. Keybot is tracking utilities with UTIL 543.00 as a key market direction driver. UTIL price is under at 541.82 which is creating broad market negativity. Very simply, equities will recover if UTIL moves above 543.00. More importantly, watch the 4 PM closing price of UTIL for the week because next week UTIL must stay above 551.66 to prevent market selling. So the bulls must not only pump UTIL higher by two points at the opening bell but must drive UTIL above 551.66 before the Friday session ends. If not, more broad market weakness will be in play for Monday.

The bulls also need XLF above 22.61 and/or RTH above 59.62 to regain their mojo. Bears can receive more downside juice with JJC 38.90 (weaker copper). The bears are cruising without worry; the algo number goes negative to -9, fifty points under the signal line.

For the SPX starting at 1931, the bears only need a smidge of negativity in the S&P futures and the SPX will drop several handles at the opening bell. The bulls will focus on keeping the overnight S&P futures positive and at the opening bell pushing UTIL above 543.00 to stop the market bleeding. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning before the opening bell.

8/3/14; 7:00 PM EST = 
8/1/14; 10:00 AM EST = 

8/1/14; 9:00 AM EST =

7/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -9; signal line is +41

7/31/14; 11:59 AM EST = -9; signal line is +44

7/31/14; 11:19 AM EST = +7; signal line is +46

7/31/14; 9:58 AM EST = +23; signal line is +47

7/31/14; 9:48 AM EST = +39; signal line is +48

7/31/14; 9:40 AM EST = +23; signal line is +49

7/30/14; 9:47 AM EST = +39; signal line is +50

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short after a roller coaster ride yesterday. The bulls tried to lower volatility but they could not keep the beach ball underwater. Instead bulls jammed semiconductors higher but fell short of the SOX 623 target as well. The bears could not make headway lower since the RTH remains above 59.62. Watch VIX 12.69, RTH 59.62 and XLF 22.63; the algo rates these three parameters as most greatly impacting market direction currently. Bulls need VIX under 12.69 or SOX above 623 or they have serious problems. Bears need RTH under 59.62 or XLF under 22.63 which will create stronger downside selling pressure. Markets ended flat yesterday since the parameters remained in their respective camps.

For the SPX starting at 1970, the bulls need to touch the 1979 handle and an upside acceleration will occur. The bears need to push under 1962.50 to create a downside acceleration. S&P futures are weak overnight at -11 due to the Russia sanctions and Argentina default. This negatively will easily print a sub 1962.50 number. A move through 1963-1978 is sideways action. The bears have the ball. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this evening for EOM. July began at SPX 1960 so the bears need a ten-point down day to stop a positive month from printing.

8/1/14; 9:00 AM EST =

7/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

7/30/14; 9:47 AM EST = +39; signal line is +50

7/30/14; 9:36 AM EST = +53; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains short

7/29/14; 1:51 PM EST = +39; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bulls need lower volatility and the bears need lower retail or financial stocks. Watch VIX 12.69, RTH 59.62 and XLF 21.63. Bulls will take the stock market to new all-time highs if they push VIX under 12.69. If VIX loses 12.69, and the SPX moves above 1985, Keybot will likely flip long. If either RTH fails under 59.62 (only a nickel away at 59.67) and/or XLF drops under 21.63 (only 15 cents away), market carnage will result with the stock market falling in earnest. If VIX remains bearish, and RTH and XLF remain bullish, equities will float along sideways with a slight upward bias.

For the SPX on Wednesday starting at 1970, closing on the lows, the bears only need a smidge of negativity in the futures and a few-handle flush downward will occur at the opening bell, so watch the overnight S&P futures (S&P's are +2 Tuesday evening). The bulls need to recover to 1985 to regain the upside market mojo. Since this is a formidable task, instead the bulls will focus on moving volatility lower while sending retail and financial stocks higher.

Any negative news concerning retail or financial stocks overnight and tomorrow morning will tell you that the bears will win and likely start growling strongly while positive news will hint at a bullish recovery for stocks. The caution flag is removed for now but consider it and the imminent turn status to be in play if VIX drops under 12.69. Wednesday's price action is very important with volatility and the retail and financial sectors deciding the fate of the stock market.

7/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

7/29/14; 1:51 PM EST = +39; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Tuesday session only has about 90 minutes of trading remaining. Volatility is dancing above and below the critical VIX 12.69 line in the sand. Look at the price action hug 12.69 and commit to the high side, moving towards 13, over the last few minutes. Isn't it amazing that the algo can identify important key pivot and inflection points such as VIX 12.69 before they occur?

Watch VIX 12.69 and RTH 59.62. Semiconductors are remaining in the bear camp today. Bears need RTH 59.62 to unleash downside carnage. Bulls need VIX under 12.69 which will immediately halt the market selling.

7/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

7/29/14; 1:51 PM EST = +39; signal line is +52

7/29/14; 12:18 PM EST = +53; signal line is +53

7/29/14; 11:37 AM EST = +39; signal line is +54

7/29/14; 10:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short but the bulls are running higher today. The bulls slap the bears in the face by pushing retail stocks higher. RTH is above 59.62 creating lift in the equity markets. Volatility remains low. The algo is now tracking semiconductors again as they stage a comeback. Watch SOX 623.15, now at 617.81 with a HOD at 620.51. Semi's remain in the bear camp under the critical SOX 623.15 bull-bear line in the sand so a lid is placed on the stock market upside. If bulls push SOX above 623.15, the stock market will catapult to new all-time highs. The bears need to push RTH under 59.62 and/or VIX above 12.69 to regain their mojo.

If the SOX moves above 623, and the SPX above 1985, Keybot will likely flip long. Thus, bulls need higher semiconductors and it is smooth sailing higher for equities. Bears need weaker retail stocks and/or higher volatility to reinitiate the downside market selling. Note the algo number is now only three points from the signal line verifying the continued bull-bear sideways struggle. The three parameters above will tell you who wins. The caution flag is out since bulls can start a big upside party if they simply goose the chip stocks.

7/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

7/29/14; 10:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +56

7/29/14; 9:36 AM EST = +50; signal line is +57

7/28/14; 2:34 PM EST = +34; signal line is +58

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Tuesday trading. The RTH turned bearish under 59.62 late-day on Monday creating equity weakness for the last one hour of trading. The VIX, however, prefers the bull camp at 12.56 remaining under the 12.69 bull-bear line in the sand. Retail stocks and volatility are the two major market direction forces currently. Thus, bears need VIX above 12.69 to claim victory and create sustainable downside selling. Bulls need RTH above 59.62 to pop the champagne corks and prove they have the beans to move equities higher. If RTH remains bearish, and VIX remains bullish, equities will stagger sideways.

For the SPX starting at 1979, the bulls need to move up through 1981.50, only 2-1/2 points higher, and bingo, an upside acceleration will occur to the mid and upper 1980's. The bears need to push under 1967.50 to regain their mojo and create a downward acceleration. A move through 1968-1981 is sideways action for Tuesday. Listen for any news concerning retailers, good or bad, that will influence RTH. Watch RTH 59.62 and VIX 12.69 since they dictate market direction. A pre-scheduled number will print tomorrow one-half hour after the markets open for trading.

7/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =

7/28/14; 2:34 PM EST = +34; signal line is +58

7/28/14; 1:46 PM EST = +50; signal line is +59

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant  remains short as the bulls stage a comeback today. RTH moves above the 59.62 bull-bear level so equities recover. Over the last few minutes VIX drops under the 12.68 bull-bear line in the sand adding additional upside fuel for the stock market. It now makes sense that the stock market did not sell off more this morning since the breakdowns in RTH and VIX were only tentative. The bulls can run several SPX points higher if they can touch the 1985 handle

Overall, the bears continue to drive the bus. The bulls likely need either stronger commodities or semiconductors to prove that they can mount a sustainable recovery. Market selling will resume if either RTH drops under 59.62 or if VIX moves back above 12.68.

7/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =

7/28/14; 1:46 PM EST = +50; signal line is +59

7/28/14; 1:33 PM EST = +36; signal line is +60

7/28/14; 9:48 AM EST = +20; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new trading week is underway. The bears come to play turning both the retail sector and volatility bearish, while maintaining weak semiconductors, so equities fall. The algo begins the week by printing two numbers verifying a weaker picture for the stock market ahead. The algo number is now 42 points below the signal line. Surprisingly, the SPX is now printing only 2 or 3 points lower when for this failure a 20 plus point failure would be expected.

Watch RTH 59.62 (causing market negativity), VIX 12.70 (causing market negativity) and XLF 22.63 (causing bullishness). Thus, bulls need either RTH above 59.62 and/or VIX under 12.70 to stop the market selling. Bears need XLF under 22.63 to drive markets lower. Since RTH price is 59.58 only four pennies away use this as the main market driver of direction right now.

Equities will recover with RTH above 59.62. Instead, if the RTH price action is a simple back kiss, and the RTH resumes the path lower, equities will start to tumble lower in earnest. The bears are in firm control with the bulls sitting in the back seat of the bus. Keybot prints four pre-scheduled numbers this week; one tomorrow morning, the second on Thursday for the month-end and two on Friday morning. It is very surprising that the stock market is not far lower.

8/3/14; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/14; 10:00 AM EST = 

8/1/14; 9:00 AM EST =

7/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

7/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =

7/28/14; 9:48 AM EST = +20; signal line is +62

7/28/14; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +63

7/27/14; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +64

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to begin the new week of trading. Watch SOX 624 (now at 616 causing market negativity), RTH 59.55 (now at 59.80 causing market bullishness) and VIX 12.96 (now at 12.69 causing market bullishness). Thus, the bulls need SOX above 624 to prove the trek to new all-time highs continues. Bears need either RTH under 59.55 or VIX above 12.96 which will create strong downward selling pressure. If semiconductors remain weak, and retail and volatility remains bullish, markets will float sideways with a slight upward bias.

For the SPX starting at 1978, the bulls need to touch the 1985 handle to unleash an upside acceleration. The bears need to push under 1974.50 to accelerate the downside. S&P futures are +1 about 6-1/2 hours before the US opening bell. The bears are driving the bus. 

8/3/14; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/14; 10:00 AM EST = 

8/1/14; 9:00 AM EST =

7/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

7/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =

7/27/14; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +64

7/25/14; 11:25 AM EST = +50; signal line is +64; go short 1975; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +6.9%)(Keybot this trade = -0.3%; Keybot for 2014 = +5.0%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +5.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side today at SPX 1975 in a fickle trading environment. SOX remains bearish and VIX drifts higher today which maintained the downward selling pressure in equities. The algo was within seconds of triggering short at 1979 but did not, then at 1978 but did not, but then at 1975 near the lows of the day, the parameters all latch and the algo commits to the short side. SOX 624 is a big deal come Monday morning. VIX and RTH are also greatly impacting market direction so semiconductors, volatility and retail stocks rule the roost. Levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints.

The Keybot algorithm program loses -0.3% on the last trade and the actual trading loses -0.6%. The algo cycled out of SSO and into QID remaining in double X ETF's. The algo flip-flops twice, every three days over the last six days, first to the short side, then back to the long side, now back to the short side. This behavior highlights indecision in markets. Listen over the weekend for any news concerning chip and retail stocks. The bears are driving the bus.

7/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/25/14; 11:25 AM EST = +50; signal line is +64; go short 1975; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +6.9%)(Keybot this trade = -0.3%; Keybot for 2014 = +5.0%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +5.4%)

7/25/14; 9:36 AM EST = +50; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains long

7/22/14; 9:35 AM EST = +66; signal line is +65; go long 1982; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +7.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2014 = +5.3%)(Actual this trade = -1.9%; Actual for 2014 = +6.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is under the signal line and the program is beginning to latch-in the parameters to trigger a move to the short side, but, not yet. Semiconductors experience a severe failure today. Markets will weaken moving forward as long as SOX remains under 624 (now at 619). If the SPX drops under 1979, and remains under for about five minutes, Keybot will likely flip short. SPX is now printing at 1981.

Remain alert, it appears that the bears may make a strong run lower today. VIX is 12.12 remaining under the 12.95 bull-bear danger line helping bulls. All Hades will break loose with accelerated downside selling if the VIX moves above 12.95. Equities will recover today if the SOX (semiconductors) moves higher.

7/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/25/14; 9:36 AM EST = +50; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains long

7/22/14; 9:35 AM EST = +66; signal line is +65; go long 1982; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +7.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2014 = +5.3%)(Actual this trade = -1.9%; Actual for 2014 = +6.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long heading into the Friday session to end the week. The algo is simply idling along and not printing any numbers since Tuesday. The bulls are driving the bus. Bears need either VIX 12.95 and/or SOX 624.25 to develop sustainable market downside. If either of these turn bearish, and the SPX loses the 1986 level, Keybot will likely flip short. If both parameters remains bullish then stocks will float sideways to higher into the weekend.

For the SPX starting at 1988, at new all-time highs, the bulls need to push up through 1991, only three points higher, and price will be running towards 2000 in quick order. The bears need to push under 1986, only two points lower, to accelerate the downside. If the downside occurs, simply watch to see if VIX 12.95 or SOX 624.25 occurs, if so, markets will begin crumbling lower, if not, markets will recover.

7/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/22/14; 9:35 AM EST = +66; signal line is +65; go long 1982; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +7.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2014 = +5.3%)(Actual this trade = -1.9%; Actual for 2014 = +6.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Thursday trading session is underway. The algo has not printed any numbers since flipping long on Tuesday. Bulls continue to cruise higher since volatility remains low. The algo is tracking VIX 12.95 so the market bears cannot create any negativity with VIX over one point under. Interestingly, semiconductors are back in vogue as a key market driver again. The algo is now tracking SOX 523.90 as a bull-bear line in the sand. SOX is printing a 529 handle creating buoyant equity markets but a drop of 5 more handles is going to create broad market selling. At SOX 529, bulls are still not particulary worried.

For the SPX today, now printing at 1989.60 and printing a new all-time intraday high at 1990.10 a short time ago, needs to hold the 1989.50 plus level for a few minutes and this will then create an upside acceleration, so the current price action is very important. Market bears need to push under 1982.50 to regain downside mojo. A move through 1983-1989 is sideways action. Bears need VIX 12.95 or SOX 523.90 or they got nothing. Since these targets are not within direct reach right now, the imminent turn notation is removed. The bulls are in charge. 

7/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/22/14; 9:35 AM EST = +66; signal line is +65; go long 1982; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +7.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2014 = +5.3%)(Actual this trade = -1.9%; Actual for 2014 = +6.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMIINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side with volatility running the show. Watch VIX 12.96, now at 12.24 causing market lift. Bears need VIX 12.96 or they got nothing. If the VIX moves above 12.96, and the SPX drops under 1976, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side.

For the SPX for Wednesday starting at 1984, the bulls need two points, to push above 1986 and the upside party continues to 1990. The bears need to push under 1976 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1977-1985 is sideways action. VIX 12.96 is steering the market directional ship. The imminent turn notation remains since the bears may whipsaw the markets in reverse without too much effort.

7/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/22/14; 9:35 AM EST = +66; signal line is +65; go long 1982; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +7.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2014 = +5.3%)(Actual this trade = -1.9%; Actual for 2014 = +6.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long today after the opening bell. The gap-up opening was not large enough to trigger a timer so the highs above SPX 1977 latch-in, along with all other parameters, and Keybot flips to the bull side at SPX 1982. The short side was only a 3-day event and the bears could not develop any significant downside juice. The bearish move was basically a volatility event due to geopolitical factors. The bears need to place meat on the bones with a sector such as financials, retail or copper creating the weakness but all they could hang their hats on was volatility.

The VIX dropping under 13 yesterday was a tell that the bulls were staging a comeback. VIX dropping under 12 today places the bulls in the upside party mode. All this said, it would not be surprising to see a whipsaw occur today or tomorrow and for the bears to quickly fight back. There is only one tiny point between the algo number and signal line so the bulls do not exactly have a ringing endorsement of upside.

Bears need VIX above 12.96 or they got nothing. The SPX prints new all-time intraday record highs. The algo program logs a -1% loss on the last trade and the actual trading using the SDS double inverse loses almost -2%. Keybot cycled out of SDS and entered SSO. Watch for a potential whipsaw but the bears will need higher volatility to make it happen. VIX is currently printing 11.95 one-point under the 12.96 danger line. The broad indexes are very erratic and unstable currently. 

7/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/22/14; 9:35 AM EST = +66; signal line is +65; go long 1982; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +7.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2014 = +5.3%)(Actual this trade = -1.9%; Actual for 2014 = +6.0%)

7/21/14; 1:12 PM EST = +66; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short

7/21/14; 10:17 AM EST = +52; signal line is +64

7/21/14; 9:55 AM EST = +66; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short

7/21/14; 9:44 AM EST = +52; signal line is +63

7/20/14; 7:00 PM EST = +66; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short

7/18/14; 10:58 AM EST = +66; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short

7/18/14; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +63

7/18/14; 9:39 AM EST = +53; signal line is +63

7/17/14; 3:42 PM EST = +37; signal line is +63

7/17/14; 3:20 PM EST = +53; signal line is +64; go short 1963; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +6.2%)(Keybot this trade = +3.9%; Keybot for 2014 = +6.3%)(Actual this trade = +8.2%; Actual for 2014 = +7.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the bears folded like a cheap suit once volatility dropped. The VIX is under the bull-bear line at 12.96 so equities will move higher. Bears need VIX above 12.96 or they got nothing. Keybot is champing at the bit to go long and is latching in parameters to permit the move. If the SPX prints above 1977, the algo will likely flip to the long side. S&P futures are +6 forecasting a strong start to the day but the open remains four hours away. A gap-up open may trigger a timer that will delay the move to the long side for about 90 minutes.

For the SPX starting at 1974, the bulls need to touch the 1977 handle and the upside will accelerate above 1980 on its way to test the all-time highs. The bears need to push under 1966 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1967-1976 is sideways action for Tuesday. The bears are driving the bus but the bulls appear ready to take over again. Pay attention to the intraday high prints as they occur today. The algo number is only two points above the signal line but that will be enough to create a flip to the long side if the other internal program parameters latch into place. VIX 12.96 identifies the winner.

7/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/21/14; 1:12 PM EST = +66; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short

7/21/14; 10:17 AM EST = +52; signal line is +64

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading is underway and the algo begins in a very active mode printing three numbers out of the gate. The bears are using the higher volatility to create market weakness. Copper is trading higher helping the bulls. The VIX bull-bear line in the sand is at 12.95 so equities will remain and finish weak today as long as the VIX stays above 12.95. Bulls will recover and send markets higher if they push VIX under 12.95. The imminent turn status will quickly return if the VIX loses 12.95. For now, the bears are driving the bus without any fight from the bulls.

7/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/21/14; 10:17 AM EST = +52; signal line is +64

7/21/14; 9:55 AM EST = +66; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short

7/21/14; 9:44 AM EST = +52; signal line is +63

7/20/14; 7:00 PM EST = +66; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is bearish moving into the new week of trading but the algorithm wants to flip to the long side. Internal programming rules, however, will not yet permit to the move to the short side. If the SPX moves above 1980, only a couple points higher, Keybot will likely flip long. Hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line. If equities gap-up at Monday's opening bell, Keybot will likely not flip long right away. A gap-up timer may trigger that will prevent the move for about 90 minutes. S&P futures are lower by one point as the week begins.

The algo is tracking copper and volatility as the two key drivers of market direction to begin the week. Watch JJC 38.61 and VIX 13.06. Both are causing market bullishness with JJC at 38.95 and VIX at 12.06 (volatility moves inversely to the stock market). Equities will continue floating higher unless the market bears can pull one of these two parameters into the bear camp which will create immediate selling pressure. JJC is 34 cents from the bull-bear failure line which would be about a -0.9% drop. Thus, watch copper trading overnight. Any copper negativity is a plus for market bears and a drop in copper of -0.8% to -1.0% is a signal that the stock market is about to begin dropping in force. If copper is positive overnight moving higher the bulls are going to win the day on Monday and create new all-time highs in the SPX.

For the SPX starting at 1978, the bulls need to touch the 1980 handle and a big upside acceleration party occurs with bulls dancing in the streets and Keybot likely flipping long. The bears need to push under 1961 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1962-1979 is sideways action to begin the week. Very simply, bulls win with SPX 1980 and bears win with JJC 38.61 (copper dropping about -0.9% or more). Copper is trading about -0.2% lower as a new week of trading begins. 

7/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/20/14; 7:00 PM EST = +66; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short

7/18/14; 10:58 AM EST = +66; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend which has not occurred since May. Despite the big upside bull rally recovery, the algo idles along remaining bearish. If the SPX would have gained a couple more points, Keybot would probably be long now. Monday's opening will be very important.

The wild spike higher in volatility on Thursday afternoon (VIX above the algo's 13.06 bull-bear level) created the flush lower in equities then the collapse in volatility under VIX 13.06 on Friday catapulted the stock market bulls to greatness again. The VIX giveth to bears and taketh away.

The algo identifies copper and volatility as the current market direction drivers to begin next week. Watch for any copper weakness which currently appears to be the best chance for the market bears to create selling pressure. A drop in copper of only about -0.8% should be enough to lock in stock market downside. So if you see copper trading negatively overnight into Monday the bears are coming to play and are at least going to make upside gains difficult. If copper is trading positively, the bears got nothing and will likely fold like a cheap suit with Keybot likely flipping to the long side.

Key levels and other algo information can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints. The bears are driving the bus but the bulls have their hands on the steering wheel as well. Keybot is champing at the bit to go long but the internal programming rules will not yet permit the move.

7/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/18/14; 10:58 AM EST = +66; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls mount a strong recovery after VIX colapses through 13.06 like a hot knife through butter. Bears need VIX back above 13.06 as soon as possible. In the mean time, the algo number is back above the signal line and Keybot is champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the long side. If the SPX moves above 1982.63 (say 1982 in general by the looks of it) into today's closing bell, Keybot will likely flip back to the long side. The bears need to prevent anymore upside in the SPX. VIX is printing down at 12.35 with about two hours of trading remaining in the day and week. If VIX moves higher, SPX drops. If VIX drops, SPX moves higher. The SPX is printing 1975. Do the bulls have another 7 points of upside in them moving into the weekend?

The algo is now tracking copper more closely again. Watch JJC 38.60. JJC is at 38.93 creating bullishness in markets. Bears need JJC under 38.60. The retail sector runs higher today creating bull fuel. RTH is up near 60 firmly in the bull camp. 

7/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/18/14; 10:58 AM EST = +66; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short

7/18/14; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is bearish as the Friday session motors along. The RTH pivots higher from 59.46 so the bulls receive the nod today and equities launch higher. VIX dropped under the critical 13.06 bull-bear level adding further bull fuel, but recovered back above placing a ceiling on the market upside.

Therefore, the bulls and bears are fighting it out currently with the bulls waving the RTH 59.46 banner and the bulls waving the VIX 13.06 banner. One of these will flinch. Either the bulls win with VIX dropping under 13.06 which will send stocks strongly higher, or, the bears win with RTH falling back under 59.46 reigniting the downside market selling. Keybot prints one number after the opening bell and also the pre-scheduled number so far today. RTH 59.46 and VIX 13.06 tell you the market direction answer today. The bears are driving the bus. Bulls will not make headway higher without VIX under 13.06.

7/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/18/14; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +63

7/18/14; 9:39 AM EST = +53; signal line is +63

7/17/14; 3:42 PM EST = +37; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 1963 this afternoon. The algo has been fixated on retail, financials and volatility and volatility, the VIX moving above 13.10 created the deterioration in equities, then RTH under 59.46 created more selling. The RTH closed exactly on Keybot's 59.46 bull-bear line in the sand. It is amazing how the algo can identify these key levels before they occur. RTH 59.46 will tell the story at the opening bell tomorrow; if RTH moves higher so do stocks; if RTH moves lower so do stocks.

The bulls can stop the selling with RTH above 59.46 and/or VIX below 13.10.  The bears can create further market deterioration with RTH under 59.46 and/or the XLF under 22.50. So the RTH pivot tells you who  wins tomorrow at the opening bell, then, if the bulls are recovering, VIX 13.10 determines how much. If the bears win with a lower RTH, then XLF 22.50 will determine if markets flush lower, or not. If RTH stays at 59.46 or lower (causing bearishness), and VIX above 13.10 (causing bearishness), and XLF above 22.50 (creating bullishness), like now, the markets will stagger sideways into the weekend.

The Keybot algorithm program gains about +4% on the last trade which ran for 8 weeks. The actual trading gains over +8%. Keybot exited the SSO trade and entered SDS for the short side move. The Keybot the Quant algorithm has provided an actual return this year thus far of +8% (+7.9%).

For the SPX for Friday starting at 1958, the bulls need to recover today's down draft to regain their mojo which is a formidable task so instead the bulls will force retail stocks higher and push RTH higher with all their might to stop the market selling. The bears only need to push the SPX under 1956, a couple points lower, to accelerate the downside to 1950. A move through 1957-1980 is sideways action to end the week. The bears finally took control of the steering wheel today as geopolitical events create fear spiking volatility wildly higher and sending equities lower. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw move. RTH 59.46 tells you the answer at the opening bell. Listen for any news concerning retail stocks. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning after trading begins.

7/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/18/14; 10:00 AM EST =

7/17/14; 3:42 PM EST = +37; signal line is +63

7/17/14; 3:20 PM EST = +53; signal line is +64; go short 1963; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +6.2%)(Keybot this trade = +3.9%; Keybot for 2014 = +6.3%)(Actual this trade = +8.2%; Actual for 2014 = +7.9%)

7/17/14; 2:53 PM EST = +53; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains long

7/17/14; 9:00 AM EST = +67; signal line is +64

7/13/14; 7:00 PM EST = +67; signal line is +64

7/7/14; 10:53 AM EST = +67; signal line is +63

7/6/14; 7:00 PM EST = +81; signal line is +63

7/3/14; 9:00 AM EST = +81; signal line is +63

6/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +81; signal line is +63

6/29/14; 7:00 PM EST = +81; signal line is +63

6/27/14; 10:00 AM EST = +81; signal line is +62

6/24/14; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +62

6/22/14; 7:00 PM EST = +79; signal line is +62

6/20/14; 9:36 AM EST = +79; signal line is +62

6/17/14; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +61

6/16/14; 3:03 PM EST = +63; signal line is +61

6/16/14; 11:35 AM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

6/16/14; 9:44 AM EST = +63; signal line is +61

6/15/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long

6/13/14; 12:27 PM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

6/13/14; 10:42 AM EST = +63; signal line is +60

6/13/14; 10:00 AM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

6/13/14; 9:36 AM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

6/12/14; 3:53 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60

6/12/14; 3:29 PM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

6/8/14; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60

6/6/14; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +59

6/5/14; 1:31 PM EST = +63; signal line is +58

6/5/14; 12:47 PM EST = +47; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long

6/5/14; 12:25 PM EST = +63; signal line is +57

6/5/14; 12:07 PM EST = +47; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long

6/5/14; 11:15 AM EST = +63; signal line is +57

6/5/14; 9:36 AM EST = +47; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long

6/4/14; 9:36 AM EST = +63; signal line is +59

6/1/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +79; signal line is +59

5/30/14; 10:00 AM EST = +79; signal line is +59

5/29/14; 10:30 AM EST = +80; signal line is +58

5/27/14; 10:52 AM EST = +64; signal line is +57

5/27/14; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +57

5/27/14; 9:36 AM EST = +80; signal line is +56

5/25/14; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +56

5/22/14; 9:44 AM EST = +64; signal line is +55; go long 1889; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +2.2%)(Keybot this trade = -0.5%; Keybot for 2014 = +2.4%)(Actual this trade = -1.1%; Actual for 2014 = -0.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The beat goes on with the bulls slapping the bears around day after day. The algo is tracking RTH 59.47 and JJC 38.65. Both are now printing above these critical bull-bear levels, identified by the algo, creating market bullishness, and equities keep floating higher. Equities should be limited on the upside due to the failure in commodities over the last three weeks. The bears need either RTH 59.47 or JJC 38.65 or they got nothing. Markets will begin selling off and start a trend lower if one of these two parameters turn bearish. If one of the two turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 1976, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX starting at 1982, the bulls need to touch the 1984 handle and an upside acceleration will occur in a heartbeat with price punching up through the all-time high at 1985 and moving to 1990. So watch the S&P futures to see if the bulls can muster up a couple of points and put on the party hats for Thursday. The bears need to push under 1976 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1977-1983 is sideways action. The bears need weaker retail stocks and weaker copper or they got nothing. Housing Starts hit at 8:30 AM and will impact the S&P futures. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell.

7/18/14; 10:00 AM EST =

7/17/14; 9:00 AM EST =

7/13/14; 7:00 PM EST = +67; signal line is +64

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and another day goes by with the algo not printing any numbers. The JPM and GS positive earnings catapult the XLF to 23. Retail Sales numbers were good enough to send RTH to 60. Note how commodities are continuing to collapse which will limit the broad market upside. Bears need RTH 59.43 or VIX 13.03 to create market weakness. If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX drops under 1965.50, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX starting at 1973, the bulls need to push above 1982 to create an upside acceleration. The bears need to push under 1965.50 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1966-1981 is sideways action. The bulls are cruising.

7/17/14; 9:00 AM EST =

7/13/14; 7:00 PM EST = +67; signal line is +64

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bullish as the new week begins and the algo does not print any numbers during the Monday session. Keybot is simply motoring along on the long side. Bears need either RTH 59.43, VIX 13.03 and/or XLF 22.48 or they got nothing. The C earnings this morning set a positive tone for banks and slapped the bears in the face from the get-go. The market upside is likely limited, however, since commodities remain weak. If one of the three parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 1970, Keybot will likely flip short. Since the bulls are remaining a safe distance from the three parameters creating market buoyancy the imminent turn notation is removed, for now.

For the SPX starting at 1977, the bulls need to touch the 1980 handle and an upside acceleration will quickly occur taking price to the all-time highs in the mid to high 1980's. The bears need to push under 1970 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1971-1979 is sideways action for Tuesday. The bulls are cruising. The bears got nothing until either the retail or financial sectors weaken or volatility moves higher. Interestingly, Retail Sales data hits at 8:30 AM EST and will greatly impact RTH.

7/18/14; 10:00 AM EST =

7/17/14; 9:00 AM EST =

7/13/14; 7:00 PM EST = +67; signal line is +64

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading begins. The same-o theme remains with financials, volatility and retail the three areas most greatly controlling broad market direction currently. Watch XLF 22.46, VIX 13.16 and RTH 59.34. All three are in the bull camp creating market upside. Bears got nothing unless they pull at least one of the three into the bear camp. If all three remains bullish, the stock markets will float sideways with an upward bias. If one of the three parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 1960, Keybot will likely flip to the short side, hence, the imminent turn notation remains in the title line.

For the SPX starting at 1968, the bulls need to touch the 1969 handle, only one skinny point higher, and an upside acceleration will occur. S&P futures are +1 on Sunday evening so the bulls want to make a run, however, the opening bell is a long way away. The bears need to push under 1960 on Monday to accelerate the downside. A move through 1961-1968 is sideways action to begin the week. The algo prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Thursday and the other on Friday. The bulls are driving the bus for almost two months. XLF 22.46 is likely the best opportunity for the bears to take control of the stock market. Listen for any negative news concerning banks or retailers.

7/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/18/14; 10:00 AM EST =

7/17/14; 9:00 AM EST =

7/13/14; 7:00 PM EST = +67; signal line is +64

7/7/14; 10:53 AM EST = +67; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. Retail, financials and volatility remain key for next week. The bulls could not bring any of the three parameters into their camp so equities easily finished positive on Friday. Levels and areas of interest can be identified for next week once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow. The market selling is all bluster by the bears, so far.

7/13/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/7/14; 10:53 AM EST = +67; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long through yesterday's drama. VIX 13.16, XLF 22.46 and RTH 59.34 all remain bullish so the markets recovered from the selling pressure. The bears could not develop any downside juice although the VIX was above 13.16 for a few minutes and the XLF touched the 22.46 for an instant. Therefore, the VIX is most likely to be first in indicating downside selling ahead, then the XLF then the RTH. So bears got nothing unless they achieve one of the three targets listed. If one of the parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 1953, Keybot will likely flip short, hence, the imminent turn notation remains in the title line.

For the SPX starting at 1965, the bulls need to touch the 1970 handle and a big upside party will result. S&P futures currently point to a +3 point pop at the open. The bears need to push under 1953 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1954-1969 is sideways action to end the week. The bulls continue driving the bus.

7/13/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/7/14; 10:53 AM EST = +67; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Thursday session that is projected to be a gap down opening with the S&P futures at -17. The algo is tracking three key sectors that are most greatly impacting stock market direction; retail, volatility and financials. The markets are set to sell off but the bears can only create extended downside with RTH 59.34, VIX 13.15 and/or XLF 22.46. In other words, as the markets sell off, if the bears do not attain at least one of these three goals, they got nothing, and the broad indexes will recover.

If any one of the three parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 1965 (which is set to occur for the SPX), Keybot will likely flip short. However, pay close attention to the low prints today in the SPX since the algo uses these data points as one of the internal programming rules to determine if the flip to the short side will occur, or not. If stocks recover today but one of the three parameters turn bearish, the SPX will need to take out the lows of the day to potentially flip short.

For the SPX starting at 1973, the bulls only need one point higher, to 1974, and an upside acceleration will occur. This is not going to happen at least in the early going. The bears need to push under 1965, which already looks like a done deal considering the S&P futures, which accelerates the downside to 1960. The imminent turn notation is in the title line since the market bears are mounting a charge today. Watch retail, volatility and financials as described above since they will tell you if the market downside is real, or not.

7/13/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/7/14; 10:53 AM EST = +67; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Wednesday session. The algo did not print any numbers in the Tuesday session. The equity markets placed a top since GTX is under 5029. Note this morning how price came up to exactly 5029 with the bulls trying to recover, but GTX was slapped in the face and collapsed lower now under 5K creating market negativity. So weak commodities are the bears best friend currently. Bulls cannot push higher to the all-time highs without GTX above 5029. The bears need either RTH 59.34 and/or VIX 13.15 to create downside selling. If one of these two parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 1959, Keybot will likely flip short. Since the retail sector may potentially give up the ghost, the caution flag is added in the title line.

For the SPX starting at 1964, the bulls need to push above 1976 to accelerate a move higher. The bears need to push under 1959.50, about 4 or 5 points lower, to accelerate the downside. A move through 1960-1975 is sideways action for Wednesday. The bears win with RTH 59.34 or VIX 13.15. The bulls win with GTX 5029. If retail stocks and volatility remain bullish, and commodities remain bearish, respectively, the stock market will stagger along sideways.

7/13/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/7/14; 10:53 AM EST = +67; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains bullish. The bears score a victory with GTX under 5029 placing a top in the markets. The bears need either RTH 59.30 or XLF 22.43 to create market negativity and if one of these two flip bearish Keybot will likely flip to the short side. If the bulls push GTX above 5029 (now at 5023 six points on the bear side), the bears will fold like a cheap suit and more equity market highs are on the way.

For the SPX starting at 1978, the bulls need to push above 1984 and the upside market party continues. The bears need to push under 1975 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1976-1983 is sideways action for Tuesday. The bulls continue driving the bus and need higher commodities to get back on track. The bears need weaker retail stocks and banks.

7/13/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/7/14; 10:53 AM EST = +67; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long but the bears finally show a small sign of life. Bears push commodities lower with GTX losing the important 5029 bull-bear level identified by the algo.  The SPX drops under 1976 for a few minutes but the bears could not maintain the lower path. A drop under 1976 will accelerate the SPX lower a few handles. The algo number and signal line are only four points difference now but the bulls continue cruising. The GTX is recovering now only five points under 5029 so the bears may fold like a cheap suit into the closing bell.

The algo is tracking retail and financials. If either RTH 59.30 or XLF 22.43 fail, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. However, these bull-bear lines in the sand remains substantially under current prices. Therefore, no need for the caution flag as yet. The bears have stopped the upside move in the stock market with GTX under 5029. The bulls will not be able to move stocks higher unless they regain GTX 5029.

7/13/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/7/14; 10:53 AM EST = +67; signal line is +63

7/6/14; 7:00 PM EST = +81; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long as trading resumes in the US after the Independence Day holiday on Friday. The bulls continue cruising without any worries. Volatility remains at multi-year lows. Sectors such as copper, semiconductors and financials are moving higher supporting the bull scenario. The bears are in hibernation. The algorithm is tracking GTX 5030 as the bears best current chance to halt the multi-week upside rally. GTX is at 5074 forty-four points above, on the bull side, creating market lift. Market bears got nothing unless they can push GTX under 5030, if so, the upside rally is done. If GTX remains bullish, the stock market continues floating sideways to sideways higher.

For the SPX starting at 1985, closing at the highs in the prior session, the bulls only need a smidge of green in the S&P futures, to push through SPX 1986, and the upside rally will continue with a few points of acceleration sending price above 1990. The bears need to push the SPX under 1976, nine points lower, to accelerate the downside. A move through 1977-1985 is sideways action for Monday. S&P futures are -3 about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell. Keybot the Quant remains on the long side for the last six weeks. The algo does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. Watch commodities. The algo number remains at an uber high overbot level at +81 so the bulls are having a big party but overbot levels typically indicate a market top. Time will tell.

7/13/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/6/14; 7:00 PM EST = +81; signal line is +63

7/3/14; 9:00 AM EST = +81; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the holiday weekend in the States. US markets are closed today for the Independence Day July 4th holiday. The power of the bullish rally is remarkable. There is no let-up with the indexes in melt-up mode. The Dow prints above 17K for the first time in history and the SPX prints new all-time highs above 1985.

The bears are in hibernation and have not put up any fight in recent weeks. The global central banker intervention creates the market thrust. The best case for bears is moving GTX (commodities) under 5030 which would stop the equity rally. The rising dollar will send commodities lower. Projections and levels of interest can be identified once the pre-scheduled Sunday number prints. The algo did not print any numbers last week with the exception of two pre-scheduled numbers. Equities remain in full-blown bull mode since the mid-May bottom and the bulls are driving the bus without a care in the world. 

7/6/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/3/14; 9:00 AM EST = +81; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the Friday session. There is no change after the pre-scheduled number prints. The bulls are cruising.

7/6/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/3/14; 9:00 AM EST = +81; signal line is +63

6/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +81; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and does not yet print any numbers this week except for the pre-scheduled number Monday evening. The algo prints another pre-scheduled number before the opening bell today. The bulls are driving the bus. Bears got nothing without GTX 5030 and/or RTH 59.12.

For the SPX starting at 1975, the bulls need to touch the 1977 handle, only two points higher, and an upside acceleration into the mid to high 1980's will occur quickly. The bears need to push under 1973 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1974-1976 is sideways action but unlikely considering the tight range and the ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference and the US Monthly Jobs Report both hit within the next hour.

7/6/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/3/14; 9:00 AM EST =

6/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +81; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the same old upside market song plays on. The bulls print new all-time highs on the indexes. The algo did not print any numbers during the Tuesday session. The bears need either RTH 59.12, GTX 5030 and/or VIX 13.40, or they got nothing. The bears do not have any strength so equities float higher.

For the SPX starting at 1973, the bulls need to push above 1978.50 and bingo, a few handles of upside will occur quickly sending price well above 1980. The bears need to push under 1962 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1963-1978 is sideways action. The bulls are cruising without worry or concern. Two trading days remain in the week.

7/3/14; 9:00 AM EST =

6/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +81; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and did not print any numbers during the Monday session but the EOM number prints last evening. The bulls continue cruising without worry. The SPX squeezes out a few points more of intraday upside but retreats into the closing bell. The algo is tracking RTH 59.10 (now at 59.29 creating equity market bullishness) as a bull-bear line in the sand that will show that the bears finally have downside game. If RTH remains above 59.10, the bears got nothing. The algo is also tracking VIX 13.40 and GTX 5030 with interest. All three parameters are in the bull camp maintaining a buoyant stock market.

For the SPX starting at 1960, the bulls need to push above 1964 to accelerate the upside which will pierce through the all-time high at 1968 in quick order. S&P futures are +4 about three hours before the opening bell so the bulls may make a run at the opening bell. The bears need to push under 1958 to accelerate the downside, only two points lower. A move through 1959-1963 is sideways action for Tuesday. The bulls are driving the bus and will continue to do so unless the retail, commodities and copper sectors move lower and volatility higher. Keybot remains strongly overbot at +81.

7/6/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/3/14; 9:00 AM EST =

6/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +81; signal line is +63

6/29/14; 7:00 PM EST = +81; signal line is +63