STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. Volatility dropped so the bulls were celebrating but then the VIX ran higher into the closing bell punching the bulls in the face. Watch volatility, copper and retail stocks to determine stock market direction. Bulls win if VIX drops under 19.70. Bears win if either RTH drops under 72.80 and/or JJC under 23.95. If one of these two turn bearish, and the SPX is under 1932 and dropping, Keybot wil likely flip short.

For the SPX starting Tuesday at 1932, the bears only need a smidge of red in the overnight S&P futures and the SPX will accelerate lower after the opening bell. The market bulls need to push above 1958 to regain their mojo. A move through 1932-1957 is sideways action for Tuesday. The benchmark SPX lost -0.4% during the month of February and will begin March at 1932.

3/4/16; 9:00 AM EST =

2/29/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +21; signal line is +20

2/29/16; 1:35 PM EST = +21; signal line is +20

2/29/16; 11:15 AM EST = +35; signal line is +20

2/28/16; 7:00 PM EST = +21; signal line is +20

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the new week of trading with the algo number only one tick above the signal line. The stock market is a toss-up currently. The bears need RTH under 72.75 and/or JJC under 23.81 to prove that the stock market will sell off and head lower; either one would do both would send stocks strongly lower. If one of the parameters turns bearish and the SPX drops under 1946, Keybot may flip to the short side. If both remain in the bull camp, stocks will float along sideways to sideways higher. The bulls need the VIX to drop under 19.46 since it will signal a sustainable upside rally on tap for stocks.

For the SPX starting at 1948, the bulls need to touch the 1963 handle, and bingo, the upside will accelerate towards 1970. The bears need to push under 1946, only a couple points lower, to accelerate the downside. Watch the S&P futures to see if the bears can muster up a couple negative points. A move through 1947-1962 is sideways action to begin the week.

Monday is the EOM, a leap year day, 2/29/16. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Monday evening and the other Friday morning. The bulls are driving the bus but the stock market is a coin-flip. Watch retail stocks, copper and volatility since these three parameters are most greatly impacting market direction according to the algo. Focus on VIX 19.46 which will tell you if stocks are headed up or down (volatility moves inversely to stocks).

3/6/16; 7:00 PM EST =

3/4/16; 9:00 AM EST =

2/29/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/28/16; 7:00 PM EST = +21; signal line is +20

2/26/16; 1:23 PM EST = +21; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long with the wild action continuing. Note the algo number and signal line are both at +21 representing the stock market as a coin flip.

The algorithm was very active this week and printed eight numbers yesterday including the pre-scheduled number. The bulls are holding on by a thread.

2/28/16; 7:00 PM EST =

2/26/16; 1:23 PM EST = +21; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long

2/26/16; 1:03 PM EST = +35; signal line is +21

2/26/16; 12:07 PM EST = +21; signal line is +20

2/26/16; 11:54 AM EST = +35; signal line is +19

2/26/16; 11:35 AM EST = +21; signal line is +17

2/26/16; 10:39 AM EST = +35; signal line is +16

2/26/16; 10:14 AM EST = +21; signal line is +14

2/26/16; 10:00 AM EST = +35; signal line is +12

2/25/16; 3:59 PM EST = +35; signal line is +11

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side after the opening bell this morning at SPX 1938. The erratic market action continues. The algorithm identifies copper and volatility as the two key parameters most impacting market direction. If JJC remains above 23.80 and VIX under 19.45, the bulls will keep floating the stock market higher. If either parameter flips to the bear camp, the stock market rally is over. If both flip to the bear camp, stocks will begin falling in earnest and Keybot may flip short if the SPX drops under 1925. For now, however, the bulls are comfortably in control with the algo number 24 points above the signal line.

For the SPX starting at 1952, the bulls only need a smidge of green in the overnight S&P futures and bingo, stocks will accelerate higher after the opening bell. The bears need to push the SPX under 1925 to regain their mojo. A move through 1926-1951 is sideways to end the week.

On the last trade, a very short term trade, the algo loses -0.4% and the actual trading loses -0.8%. The model does not consider the quick flip back to the long side a whipsaw since it occurred beyond a 10-hour trading time range. Therefore, Keybot remains in the double ETF's and exits SDS and enters SSO. This behavior is cautionary, however, and if trading the market it is likely prudent to stay away from leveraged vehicles in this choppy environment. Keybot only sees 0's and 1's so it remains in the 2x ETF's, for now. It will be interesting to see if a whipsaw occurs tomorrow, or not. The actual trading is up +14% after only 7 weeks of trading but the whole year will have to play out. The benchmark SPX is down more than -5% so far this year.

JJC 23.80 and VIX 19.45 will tell you the market direction story for Friday. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number one-half hour after the opening bell tomorrow.

2/28/16; 7:00 PM EST =

2/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =

2/25/16; 3:59 PM EST = +35; signal line is +11

2/25/16; 1:27 PM EST = +21; signal line is +9

2/25/16; 11:21 AM EST = +5; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains long

2/25/16; 10:23 AM EST = +21; signal line is +7

2/25/16; 10:12 AM EST = +5; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long

2/25/16; 9:34 AM EST = +21; signal line is +4; go long 1938; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = -5.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +8.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2016 = +13.7%)

2/24/16; 2:35 PM EST = +21; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short

2/24/16; 2:15 PM EST = +5; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short

2/24/16; 9:36 AM EST = -11; signal line is +1

2/23/16; 12:01 PM EST = +5; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short

2/23/16; 10:20 AM EST = -11; signal line is +0; go short 1930; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = -5.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +8.5%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2016 = +14.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short as the erratic market action continues. The algo is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 18 points above the signal line. If the SPX moves above 1932, Keybot will likely flip long, however, if there is a gap up move on Thursday a timer may be triggered that prevents the move for about 90 minutes.

Semiconductors are the top focus of Keybot currently so chips have the most impact on market direction. Watch SOX 610.00 now at 613.34 which is bullish and causing lift in the stock market. Bears need to push SOX under 610 to immediately to prove they can take the stock market lower.

For the SPX starting at 1930, exactly where the algo flipped short, the bulls need to push above 1932 and bingo, stocks will accelerate higher. Bears need to push under 1891, a formidable task, so instead will focus on pushing SOX under 610. A move through 1892-1931 is sideways action for Thursday. Watch the chips.

2/28/16; 7:00 PM EST =

2/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =

2/24/16; 2:35 PM EST = +21; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short

2/24/16; 2:15 PM EST = +5; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short

2/24/16; 9:36 AM EST = -11; signal line is +1

2/23/16; 12:01 PM EST = +5; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning at SPX 1930; just when it seemed that the model was committed long. The  bears came to play today turning the three parameters previously described to the bear camp and the algo wasted no time turning short. In these erratic markets, however, keep an eye out for a whipsaw back to the long side. Keybot flipped short but already wants to go long again at noon time. If the SPX moves above 1942, Keybot will likely flip long.

The bears need to push RTH (retail stocks) under 72.58 and/or JJC (copper) under 23.81 to verify that down is the direction for stocks. The bulls need to push SOX (chips) above 610 to prove that higher is the direction for the stock market. If RTH and JJC remain bullish, and SOX remains bearish, stocks will likely stagger along sideways.

For the SPX starting at 1921, the bulls need to push above 1942 to accelerate higher, a formidable task. The bears need to push under 1919, only 2 points lower, and the downside will accelerate lower to 1912 in quick order. A move through 1920-1941 is sideways action. The bears are driving the bus stealing it away from the bulls, however, Keybot wants to flip long right now; keep an eye on 1942 as well as retail, copper and chips which will dictate market direction.

On the last trade, the algorithm gains +1.5% and the actual trading gains +3%. The benchmark SPX remains negative on the year down -5.6%. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS. Listen closely for any news concerning retail stocks overnight which will greatly impact market direction.

2/28/16; 7:00 PM EST =

2/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =

2/23/16; 12:01 PM EST = +5; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short

2/23/16; 10:20 AM EST = -11; signal line is +0; go short 1930; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = -5.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +8.5%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2016 = +14.5%)

2/23/16; 10:00 AM EST = +21; signal line is -0

2/23/16; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is -2

2/22/16; 3:43 PM EST = +38; signal line is -4

2/22/16; 3:34 PM EST = +22; signal line is -6

2/22/16; 3:24 PM EST = +38; signal line is -9

2/22/16; 2:43 PM EST = +24; signal line is -10

2/22/16; 1:07 PM EST = +38; signal line is -11

2/22/16; 11:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is -14

2/22/16; 11:32 AM EST = +38; signal line is -17

2/22/16; 11:19 AM EST = +24; signal line is -20

2/22/16; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is -23

2/21/16; 7:00 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24

2/18/16; 11:34 AM EST = -8; signal line is -26

2/18/16; 10:52 AM EST = -24; signal line is -27

2/17/16; 1:44 PM EST = -8; signal line is -27

2/17/16; 10:44 AM EST = -24; signal line is -28

2/17/16; 10:35 AM EST = -8; signal line is -28

2/17/16; 10:13 AM EST = -24; signal line is -39

2/17/16; 9:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is -30

2/17/16; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31

2/14/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -31

2/12/16; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -32

2/9/16; 9:36 AM EST = -23; signal line is -32

2/7/16; 7:00 PM EST = -7; signal line is -32

2/5/16; 9:00 AM EST = -7; signal line is -33

2/3/16; 9:36 AM EST = -7; signal line is -35

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -23; signal line is -36

1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -37

1/29/16; 9:34 AM EST = +23; signal line is -38; go long 1902; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = -7.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +7.0%)(Actual results this trade = +11.4%; Actual results for 2016 = +11.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the week is off to a wild start. The algo was quiet last week but this week it begins Monday by printing nine numbers; a very active day for the model. The algo number is 42 points above the signal line so the bulls are cruising. In these erratic markets, however, things could just as easily reverse. Copper jumped higher, ditto semiconductors, and volatility dropped catapulting the stock market higher. Retail stocks also kick into gear adding more upside fuel.

The bears need to push RTH under 72.58 to stop the upside market rally. Bears can also stop the rally and restart the downside if SOX falls under 610.70 and/or VIX moves above 19.44. If all three parameters turn bearish and the SPX drops under 1924, the algo will likely flip short. The bulls need higher financials, to push the XLF above 21.74, to create more upside juice.

For the SPX starting at 1946, the bulls need one point higher, to touch the 1947 handle, and an upside acceleration will occur. The bears need to push under 1924 to regain their mojo. A move through 1925-1946 is sideways action. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after tomorrow's opening bell. The bulls are driving the bus but watch retail stocks, chips and volatility to determine market direction as highlighted above.

2/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =

2/23/16; 10:00 AM EST =

2/22/16; 3:43 PM EST = +38; signal line is -4

2/22/16; 3:34 PM EST = +22; signal line is -6

2/22/16; 3:24 PM EST = +38; signal line is -9

2/22/16; 2:43 PM EST = +24; signal line is -10

2/22/16; 1:07 PM EST = +38; signal line is -11

2/22/16; 11:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is -14

2/22/16; 11:32 AM EST = +38; signal line is -17

2/22/16; 11:19 AM EST = +24; signal line is -20

2/22/16; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is -23

2/21/16; 7:00 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market turmoil continues. The algo identifies copper, volatility and semiconductors as the key parameters affecting stock market direction. The bears need to push copper lower by sending JJC under 23.77. If so, broad market selling will begin in force and consider the algorithm to be ready for an imminent turn to the short side.

The bulls need to either send the VIX under 19.28 and/or the SOX above 611 to prove that up is the direction for the stock market.

For the SPX starting at 1918, the bulls need any amount of positivity in the S&P futures and the SPX will accelerate higher after the opening bell. The bears need to push under 1902 to accelerate the downside to 1897 in a heartbeat. A move through 1903-1917 is sideways action. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning.

2/28/16; 7:00 PM EST =

2/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =

2/23/16; 10:00 AM EST =

2/21/16; 7:00 PM EST = -8; signal line is -24

2/18/16; 11:34 AM EST = -8; signal line is -26

2/18/16; 10:52 AM EST = -24; signal line is -27

2/17/16; 1:44 PM EST = -8; signal line is -27

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Thursday session. The algo has been sleeping this week until the pre-scheduled number this morning and then Keybot prints five numbers during the trading session. Thursday will be a battle of copper versus chips. The bulls need to push SOX above 611.50 to create a strong leg higher in the stock market. The bears need to push JJC under 23.76 to reintroduce negativity into the stock market and start pounding equities lower. Stocks will stagger sideways if copper remains bearish and semiconductors remain bullish.

For the SPX starting at 1927 on Thursday, the bulls need to touch the 1931 handle, four points higher, and bingo, price will accelerate higher towards 1940-1942. The bears need to push under 1899 to regain their mojo a difficult task so the bears will mainly focus on pushing copper and semiconductors lower to stop the big three-day stock market rally. A move through 1900-1930 is sideways action. For now, the bulls remain in control as the roller coaster ride continues.

Something very special occurred which is worth mentioning. The algorithm remained long despite the SPX dropping 90 handles last week away from where Keybot entered long at SPX 1902. The SPX recovers and is now above this long entry point. The shocking and astounding behavior can be put into context by realizing that the algorithm has probably only ventured 30 to 35 handles as a maximum move away from any trade entry point, and that has only occurred maybe 10 times in the history of the algo over the last 8 years.

In other words, if the stock market moves opposite of where the algorithm entered the last trade, Keybot will typically flip in that direction if the SPX deviates 30 to 35 handles. This is because the algo is willing to take a loss to maintain a steady and safe path through the trading year. The move last week had the SPX about 90 handles under where the algo had flipped long at SPX 1902; it is truly remarkable and astounding. Keybot was steadfast in staying long and in only three days the SPX recovers over 120 handles now well above the 1902! You must keep the heart medication handy as you watch these markets. The algo number is 19 points above the signal line.

2/21/16; 7:00 PM EST =

2/17/16; 1:44 PM EST = -8; signal line is -27

2/17/16; 10:44 AM EST = -24; signal line is -28

2/17/16; 10:35 AM EST = -8; signal line is -28

2/17/16; 10:13 AM EST = -24; signal line is -39

2/17/16; 9:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is -30

2/17/16; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31

2/14/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -31

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the odd market action continues. The algo did not print any numbers today to begin the holiday-shortened week of trading. The bulls need higher copper and semiconductors and lower volatility to prove they have the beans to take the stock market higher. Watch JJC 23.76, SOX 608 and VIX 19.46. If JJC remains under 23.76, SOX under 608 and VIX above 19.46 the market bears rule.

JJC begins the Wednesday session at 23.61 only pennies below the critical 23.76 bull-bear line in the sand so a lot is riding on copper overnight into tomorrow's opening bell. If copper is positive and moving higher, that hints that the market bulls will likely continue to send the stock market higher. If copper is negative and dropping, the stock market will likely weaken and retrace lower.

For the SPX starting at 1896 on Wednesday, the bulls need any smidge of green in the S&P futures and bingo, the SPX will run several handles higher at the opening bell. The bears need to push under 1871 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1872-1895 is sideways action. Copper is key. Also keep an eye on semiconductors and volatility.

2/21/16; 7:00 PM EST =

2/17/16; 9:00 AM EST =

2/14/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -31

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading on Tuesday morning. US markets are closed on Monday, 2/15/16, due to the Presidents Day holiday. The extremely odd market behavior persists. The bulls need higher copper, to push JJC above 23.83 (now at 23.27), to prove they got the beans to take the stock market higher with a recovery rally. The bears simply need to maintain weakness in copper which will continue a dark cloud over markets. Bears need lower utilities which will create further weakness in stocks.

For the SPX starting at 1865 on Tuesday, having closed at the high on Friday, the bulls only need a smidge of positivity in the S&P futures and the SPX will run several handles higher after the opening bell. The bears need to push under 1833 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1834-1864 is sideways action for Tuesday. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number during the holiday-shortened week on Wednesday morning.

2/21/16; 7:00 PM EST =

2/17/16; 9:00 AM EST =

2/14/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -31

2/12/16; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -32

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and spends the week idling along without printing any numbers since Tuesday except for the pre-scheduled number. The extremely odd and peculiar market action continues. Copper will continue to play a key role.

2/14/16; 7:00 PM EST =

2/12/16; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -32

2/9/16; 9:36 AM EST = -23; signal line is -32

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the wild and crazy market action continues. The algo prints one number so far this week. The algo number is nine points above the signal line. Copper failed at the opening bell which helped the bears create a melancholy day. Watch JJC 23.85; price is at 23.34 creating market negativity. The market bulls need JJC above 23.85 tomorrow morning or they will be in trouble. Watch copper in overnight trading.

For the SPX starting at 1852, the bulls need to push above 1868 to regain their mojo. The bears need to push under 1835 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1836-1867 is sideways action. The bears keep slapping the bulls around each day despite the algo remaining on the long side. The stock market action is very strange. Watch copper.

2/12/16; 10:00 AM EST =

2/9/16; 9:36 AM EST = -23; signal line is -32

2/7/16; 7:00 PM EST = -7; signal line is -32

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the wild market action continues. The algo did not print any numbers today. Copper and utilities remain positive creating more mystery.  Watch JJC 23.87 now at 24.02 creating lift in the stock market. Equities will collapse if JJC loses t he 23.87 level so watch copper trading overnight. If JJC remains above 23.87, the bulls can continue to build a base for the stock market and try and stop the bleeding. The ongoing market action is extremely odd. The SPX has moved inside a 90-handle range over the last two days!

For the SPX starting at 1853 on Tuesday, the bulls need to push above 1874 to accelerate the upside while the bears need to push under 1828 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1829-1873 is sideways action for Tuesday. Markets will probably go as copper goes.

2/12/16; 10:00 AM EST =

2/7/16; 7:00 PM EST = -7; signal line is -32

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the new week of trading. The market action is wild.  Friday's big selloff is a surprise considering that the algo remains bullish. Watch copper closely. Watch JJC 23.86 now at 23.94 only 8 pennies away. If JJC fails under 23.86, stocks will be flushed down the toilet.  If JJC remains above 23.86, the bulls will continue stabilizing the stock market and trying to create a recovery rally. The stock market is behaving very oddly.

For the SPX starting at 1880, the bulls need to retrace Friday's drop to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so the bulls will instead focus on moving copper higher to stop the stock market carnage. The bears need to push under 1873 to accelerate a move lower into the 1860's in a flash. A move through 1874-1912 is sideways action for Monday. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Watch copper overnight. The stock market will likely go as copper goes.

2/14/16; 7:00 PM EST =

2/12/16; 10:00 AM EST =

2/7/16; 7:00 PM EST = -7; signal line is -32

2/5/16; 9:00 AM EST = -7; signal line is -33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Friday session is underway. The bears are applying pressure but copper is holding up. Watch JJC 23.89. Price is at 24.11. Market weakness would be confirmed if JJC drops under 23.89, if it stays above, the door is open for the stock market to rise.

The algorithm is quiet this week printing a number on Wednesday and the pre-scheduled number before this morning's opening bell. Stocks remain very choppy and erratic as volatility remains elevated but the broad stock market will likely go as copper goes.

2/7/16; 7:00 PM EST =

2/5/16; 9:00 AM EST = -7; signal line is -33

2/3/16; 9:36 AM EST = -7; signal line is -35

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -23; signal line is -36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The model is idling along all week long without printing any numbers thus far. Interestingly, stocks sell off but utilities are buoyant. Bears will receive more negative juice if utes drop. UTIL will need to fall through 594.41 to help the bears but is far higher. The market bulls need either JJC above 23.83 and/or VIX under 19.17 to prove that a sustainable rally is in place. Watch copper closely overnight into tomorrow for a sign on market direction.

For the SPX on Wednesday starting at 1903, the bulls need to push above 1935 to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead the bulls will focus on pushing utes and copper higher and volatility lower. The bears need to push the SPX under 1897, only 5 or 6 points lower, and boom, the SPX will quickly fall several more handles towards 1890. A move through 1898-1934 is sideways action.

2/5/16; 9:00 AM EST =

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -23; signal line is -36

1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -37