STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long albeit with the algo number only one measly point above the signal line. The algo awoke from its slumber during the last 15 minutes of trading on Tuesday. The EOM number prints as well and the caution flag is now out. Wednesday is a battle between volatility and commodities and the winner takes the stock market in that direction.

The market bulls need to push the VIX back under 12.86 as soon as possible (now at 12.92). If so, the upside rally in equities will resume with more new all-time highs ahead. Bears win if VIX remains above 12.86. The market bears need to push GTX under 2369 (now at 2373) to receive more downside juice with stocks taking a firm leg lower. If GTX turns bearish, and the SPX drops under 2359, Keybot will likely flip short.

The robot may jog volatility, the VIX, above and below 12.86 a time or three. If so, that likely indicates that the model is getting ready to go short. If the VIX jogs along 12.86 it may create the condition to send the algo number below the signal line and set up the potential move to the bear camp.

For the SPX starting at 2364, the bulls need to touch the 2368 level and bingo, the upside will accelerate into the 2370's so fast your head will spin. The bears need to push below 2359 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2360-2367 is sideways action for hump day.

VIX 12.86 and GTX 2369 will tell you everything you need to know about stock market direction for Wednesday. President Trump is speaking before Congress as this message is typed Tuesday evening in the States. S&P futures are up +7. As seen above, a +4 gain in the SPX at the opening bell Wednesday morning would be enough to move the SPX price above the 2368 threshold. Bears will need to punch the S&P futures lower overnight. VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST and will provide an early hint on Wednesday's market direction.

3/5/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/28/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +86 signal line is +85

2/28/17; 3:59 PM EST = +86 signal line is +84

2/28/17; 3:55 PM EST = +100 signal line is +83

2/28/17; 3:44 PM EST = +86 signal line is +82

2/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100 signal line is +82

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Tuesday session is underway. The algo has not printed any numbers this week except for the pre-scheduled number a short time ago. The algo remains at the epic +100 level. The bulls are cruising. The bears need either GTX under 2366 (now at 2377) or VIX above 12.85 (now at 12.30) to confirm strong downside selling pressure for equities and if both turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 2362 heading lower, Keybot would likely flip short.

Markets may be in a holding pattern until President Trump speaks this evening in the States.

3/5/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/28/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100 signal line is +82

2/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100 signal line is +81

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. The bulls are in full control floating the stock market higher day after day. The algorithm remains at the maximum and rare record-setting value of +100.

The market bears can only stop the upside in equities with GTX under 2366 (now at 2386), JJC under 30.35 (now at 30.83) and/or VIX above 13.07 (now at 11.47). Any one of the three parameters turning bearish will stop the upside rally and the caution flag will appear in the title line. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, the imminent turn will be in play, and if the SPX drops under 2353, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX starting the week at 2367, closing at the high on Friday, the bulls need any smidgen of green in the S&P futures and the S&P 500 will run several handles higher into the 2370's after the opening bell. The bears need to push below 2353 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2354-2366 is sideways action for Monday.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week on Tuesday which is the EOM (end-of-month). Commodities, copper and volatility are the three parameters most impacting stock market direction currently.

3/5/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/28/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/28/17; 10:00 AM EST =

2/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100 signal line is +81

2/24/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100 signal line is +79

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. The algo went wall-to-wall last week without printing any numbers except the Friday pre-scheduled number; this is a very rare occurrence. One day is more odd than the next. Keybot remains jammed into the ceiling at the historic +100 level with the bulls charging ahead.

Commodities, copper and volatility are the three parameters most impacting broad stock market direction currently and are key for Monday. Levels can be identified after the Sunday number prints tomorrow. The epic market action continues. Markets remain unstable.

2/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/24/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100 signal line is +79

2/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100 signal line is +79

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long going into the Friday session after another day of not printing any numbers. The quant has not printed any numbers at all this week. Note how copper dropped like a stone testing the level called out by the algo at JJC 30.33 (now at 30.48). Copper is the most important parameter impacting broad stock market direction currently. Market bears need JJC under 30.33 which will cap the top in stocks. Bulls need to push JJC higher to keep the stock market party going.

Bears will also benefit from VIX moving above 13.07 (now at 11.71) and/or GTX dropping under 2366 (now at 2395). If 1 of the 3 parameters, JJC, VIX or GTX, turns bearish, the caution flag will be out. If 2 of the 3 flip bearish, and the SPX drops under 2355, Keybot will  likely flip short.

For the SPX starting Friday at 2364, the bulls need 4 points higher, to push above 2368, and bingo, price will be in the 2370's so fast your head will spin. The bears need to push under 2355 to regain their mojo. A move through 2356-2367 is sideways action to finish the week. The bulls remain in control. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number Friday morning. Watch JJC 30.33 like a hawk since it will tell you what you need to know about stock market direction to end the week.

2/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/24/17; 10:00 AM EST =

2/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100 signal line is +79

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls slap the bears around day after day. Slap, slap. The algo remains pegged into the ceiling at the maximum and historic +100 level and has not printed any numbers this week thus far. The bulls are partying like its 1999. Bears are dealt a massive blow with utilities ramping higher. UTIL blew through the key 666-667 level like it was standing still and exploded to 682 slapping the bears in the face. Slap, slap.

It appears that Keybot is most fixated on commodities and volatility currently as the main drivers of stock market direction. Bears need GTX under 2366 (now at 2385) and/or VIX above 13.07 (now at 11.74). Bears need lower commodities and higher volatility, respectively. The algo is also tracking copper and a drop in JJC will stall the upside move in stocks. JJC 30.45 is the bull-bear line in the sand with price firmly above at 31.59.

If the bears turn either GTX or VIX bearish, the upside rally is over and the caution flag will be out. If both parameters turn bearish the imminent turn will be in play, and if the SPX drops under 2358, Keybot will likely flip short. The SPX keeps printing new all-time record highs.

For the SPX starting at 2363 on Thursday morning, the opening bell is about 2-1/2 hours away as this message is typed, the bulls need to push up through 2365 and the upside will accelerate to 2370 in a flash. The bears need to push under 2358 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2359-2364 is sideways action. The epic and historic market action continues.

2/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/24/17; 10:00 AM EST =

2/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100 signal line is +79

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant will begin the new week of trading on Tuesday on the long side. US markets are closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day holiday. The algo remains pegged at the historic +100 level. The epic loftiness in the stock market continues.

Market bears need one of three things to happen to stop the upside move in stocks; either UTIL under 666.65 (now at 672), GTX under 2364 (now at 2393) and/or VIX above 13.16 (now at 11.49). If all three remain bullish, stocks will keep floating along sideways with an upward bias.

For the SPX starting on Tuesday at 2351, the bulls need any smidge of positivity in the S&P futures and the S&P 500 will rally several handles higher. The bears need to push below 2340 to regain their mojo. A move through 2341-2350 is sideways action to begin the US trading this week on Tuesday. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

The bulls remain in control. If any one of the three parameters in the second paragraph turn bearish, consider the caution flag out. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, the imminent turn notation will be in play. If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 2340 on Tuesday, Keybot will likely flip short.

2/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/24/17; 10:00 AM EST =

2/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100 signal line is +79

2/16/17; 9:53 AM EST = +100 signal line is +78

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo printed one number on Wednesday, then the pre-scheduled number and one more number yesterday, and is now at +100 again. Sound the seven trumpets. Stocks are locked in for the bulls.

The market bears likely need UTIL under 666.63 (now at 670.89), GTX under 2364 (now at 2397) and/or VIX above 13.17 (now at 12.03). Any parameter turning bearish will stop the upside stock market rally and require the caution flag. If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bearish, Keybot will likely flip short. The bulls are in charge. That UTIL 666.63 level is extremely important going forward.The beat goes on. 

2/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/16/17; 9:53 AM EST = +100 signal line is +78

2/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +84 signal line is +76

2/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84 signal line is +75

2/14/17; 3:30 PM EST = +100 signal line is +75

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and the epic market action continues. Stocks are printing more all-time record highs. The bulls are running. The algo did not print any numbers on Monday but was active today printing four numbers. Keybot remains at the maximum possible +100 reading. Something extremely special is occurring in the markets.

The drama with utilities continues. If UTIL drops under 666.63, now at 667.37, the upside rally in stocks will stall. If UTIL remains above 666.63, the bulls will keep printing more all-time highs.

For the SPX starting hump day at 2338, the bulls need any smidge of green in the overnight S&P futures and the stock market will run strongly higher after the opening bell. The bears need to push under 2321 to regain their mojo. A move through 2322-2337 is sideways action. The beat goes on.

2/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/16/17; 9:00 AM EST =

2/14/17; 3:30 PM EST = +100 signal line is +75

2/14/17; 2:40 PM EST = +84 signal line is +75

2/14/17; 2:11 PM EST = +100 signal line is +76

2/14/17; 10:09 AM EST = +84 signal line is +75

2/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100 signal line is +75

Keybot the Quant and SPX S&P 500 Charts

The importance of the Keybot the Quant's +100 ticks cannot be ignored. At its heart, the Keybot the Quant algorithm is an oscillator with +100 as the maximum level and -100 the minimum level. As with all oscillators, such as an RSI, or stochastics, the +70 to +100 levels indicate a stock market that is becoming or has already become overbot in need of a pullback. Conversely, the -70 to -100 levels indicate a stock market that is becoming or has become oversold and in need of a rally. The uber maximum +100 hints that a multi-year top may be printing in real-time over the coming days and weeks.

The red circles highlight the bottoms that the quant identifies as important corresponding to the lows in the market. The green circles show the tops in the quant's readings and in the stock market.

The future is unknown. Keybot only sees the 1's and 0's in real-time. The quant did not begin operating in sync with the SPX until late 2008 so the peak in the stock market top in October 2007 is not part of the quant's historical data set. An assumption can be made that Keybot was likely printing +100 numbers in June-October 2007 but this can only be verified through back testing and that is too time-consuming to fool with right now.

These are not your grandfather's markets. The Federal Reserve prevented the stock market from correcting properly in early 2009 and has pumped stocks higher ever since. Global central bankers are now acting in collusion to keep the party going. The ECB continues to print money like madmen and will continue their QE (quantitative easing) program through this year, however, the ECB is tapering the monthly asset purchases, the life-blood of markets for eight years, from March to April and these reduced monthly purchases continue through year-end. The +100 numbers indicate that a potential epic multi-year top for stocks may coincide with the ECB tapering its monthly purchases. The central bankers are running out of bullets to fight any future economic problems as the months play out. 

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the new week of trading. The algo is pinned to the maximum +100 possible level verifying the ongoing historic bullishness in the stock market. The multiple prints of +100 may be indicating that an epic multi-month and/or multi-year stock market top may be occurring as the weeks play out.

All of the quant's parameters are blown out to the upside producing the +100 historic reading. The only way the market bears can stall the upside in equities is to push UTIL back under 666 (now at 669.68). Weaker retail stocks would also help the bears if they can push RTH under 76.57 but it begins the week at a lofty 77.99. The bulls are drinking champagne without any worries in the world. Every day is a euphoric bullish party.

For the SPX starting at 2316, the bulls need to push above 2319 and bingo, price will be in the mid-2320's in a flash. The bears need to push below 2311 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2312-2318 is sideways action for Monday.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The bulls are in control with the algo number 25 points above the signal line but the +100 represents a maximum overbot condition for the stock market. There will likely be lots of drama around the UTIL 666 level as the bulls and bears duke it out. Bears desperately need UTIL back under 666, otherwise, stocks may remain lofty for several weeks ahead.

2/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/16/17; 9:00 AM EST =

2/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100 signal line is +75

2/10/17; 10:28 AM EST = +100 signal line is +74

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are running higher with the algo pegging the maximum +100 once again. Keybot prints the pre-scheduled number and one more this morning. Bulls are in firm control with the algo number 26 points above the signal line.

There is a battle at UTIL 666 and the bulls are winning with price at 667. Market bears will be slapped around all day long if UTIL remains above 666. The bulls appear unstoppable.

2/12/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/10/17; 10:28 AM EST = +100 signal line is +74

2/10/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84 signal line is +72

2/9/17; 11:31 AM EST = +84 signal line is +71

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side going into the Friday session. Utilities are key. UTIL begins at 665. Market bulls need UTIL above 666 and the stock market will continue printing more record highs. The bears need to send UTIL under 662 to create downside action in the stock market, however, that party may not continue long since as of 4 PM EST when the closing bell rings for the week, the UTIL 662 number becomes meaningless and is replaced with 653.27 which is important for all of next week.

Thus, if UTIL ventures down towards 662, stocks will be selling off but this action will only cause negativity if UTIL keeps dropping like a rock on Friday towards the 653 number. Utes move lower when yields and rates move higher. This is because utility companies are always involved in very large and expensive projects and they are very exposed to interest rate changes. So for UTIL to drop, Treasury yields would have to be rising (bonds selling off).

Bears can benefit from RTH under 76.53, GTX under 2354 and/or XLF under 23.10 but retail stocks, commodities and financials all appear strong. Watch UTIL 666 there will be likely lots of drama around this level over the coming days.

For Friday with the SPX starting at 2307, the bulls will run strongly higher if they push above 2311. If UTIL is above 666 and SPX above 2311, stocks will run strongly higher. The bears need to push the SPX under 2297 to regain their mojo. A move through 2298-2310 is sideways action to end the week. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM. Bulls are in control as markets continue chopping along. 

2/12/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/10/17; 10:00 AM EST =

2/9/17; 11:31 AM EST = +84 signal line is +71

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is back on the long side. Stocks are trailing steadily higher all day long. An adjustment was made to the data entries below that has no impact on results; it is to correct an internal conflict and keep the model in sync. The algo number retreats off the +100 level to +84 due to the drop in utilities. The bulls will continue the upside by sending UTIL back above 666 (now at 663.66). Otherwise, stocks will likely stall. Retail stocks are strongly higher so everything is going the bull's way. The bears can growl if UTIL falls under 662 but momentum is clearly in the bull's camp.

The S&P 500 (SPX) prints a new all-time record high at 2309.63.

For all of next week, the key levels for UTIL are 665.90-666.00 and 653.27. You can see that the bulls need to push UTIL under 653-ish by the end of trading tomorrow (which is where next week will begin) which is a tall task. The UTIL 665.90-666.00 level is the most important number dictating broad stock market direction now and perhaps the next day or three. This level is very important in dictating the move for the stock market over the intermediate term (weeks and months).

For the last trade, the Keybot program and actual trading both lose -0.5%. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +2.4% this year a healthy gain for six weeks. The Keybot model program is down -3.3% so far this year and the actual trading is down nearly -7%. The choppy sideways slop continues creating losses this year but the model should right the ship as time plays out. Keybot exited SH and entered SPY and remains in the single ETF's due to the sideways whipsaw action.

The upside rally will stall with UTIL under 666. If UTIL moves above 666, the  rally will continue higher. Bears need UTIL under 662 today or tomorrow to create negativity in stocks. If UTIL would fall under 662, and say price continues to trail lower under 660 and perhaps tomorrow under 658 and under 656, towards 653, that will tell you that the stock market breakout is likely a false move higher.

If utes move higher, than the stock market will likely remain buoyant for several days printing more new record highs. At the conclusion of writing this message, UTIL is currently printing at 664.14. Semiconductors may play a key role in broad stock market direction in the days ahead. In these choppy sideways markets, expect anything.

2/12/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/10/17; 10:00 AM EST =

2/9/17; 11:31 AM EST = +84 signal line is +71

2/8/17; 11:15 AM EST = +100; signal line is +71; go long 2293; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +2.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -3.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2017 = -6.8%)

2/8/17; 9:47 AM EST = +84; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short

2/7/17; 2:09 PM EST = +68; signal line is +69

2/7/17; 1:58 PM EST = +52; signal line is +70

2/7/17; 1:17 PM EST = +68; signal line is +71

2/6/17; 1:45 PM EST = +52; signal line is +71

2/6/17; 12:31 PM EST = +68; signal line is +72

2/6/17; 11:25 AM EST = +52; signal line is +72

2/6/17; 11:18 AM EST = +68; signal line is +73

2/6/17; 9:53 AM EST = +52; signal line is +73

2/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +74

2/3/17; 12:58 PM EST = +68; signal line is +74

2/3/17; 11:28 AM EST = +84; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains short

2/3/17; 9:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +74

2/2/17; 1:39 PM EST = +68; signal line is +75

2/2/17; 10:51 AM EST = +84; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains short

2/1/17; 12:59 PM EST = +68; signal line is +77

2/1/17; 12:48 PM EST = +52; signal line is +77

2/1/17; 9:39 AM EST = +68; signal line is +79

2/1/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains short

1/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +100; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains short

1/31/17; 3:27 PM EST = +100; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains short

1/31/17; 11:07 AM EST = +84; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains short

1/31/17; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +81

1/30/17; 2:06 PM EST = +68; signal line is +81

1/30/17; 1:34 PM EST = +52; signal line is +81

1/30/17; 9:35 AM EST = +68; signal line is +82; go short 2282; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +1.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -2.6%)(Actual results this trade = +0.5%; Actual results for 2017 = -6.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Thursday session but the quant is champing at the bit to go long. The algo prints two numbers on Wednesday. Sound the seven trumpets. The algo number tags +100 the maximum possible reading. Interestingly, the model prints the +100 but the SPX traded negative for most of the Wednesday session. This is extremely odd price action. A +100 event is a very rare occurrence but over the last few months the model keep tagging this epic level.

If the SPX moves above 2296, Keybot will likely flip long. If a gap-up move occurs at the opening bell, a timer may be triggered forcing Keybot to hold off on the move to the long side for 90 minutes. The best thing for market bulls is to see the S&P 500 move slowly and steadily higher which will likely flip the model to the long side. S&P futures are trading flat to +1 about five hours before the opening bell.

The parameters are in place to send the stock market higher. The bears can stall the move if either UTIL drops under 666 (now at 670), or, if RTH drops under 76.53 (now at 77.00). If these two parameters remain bullish, stocks are going to keep floating higher. Bears need weaker utes and retail stocks.

For the SPX starting at 2295, the bulls need to push above 2296, only one point higher, and the upside will quickly accelerate several handles to 2300 and higher. The bears need to push below 2285 to get their mojo back. A move through 2286-2295 is sideways action for Thursday. The bulls have it on a silver platter if they want it.

2/12/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/10/17; 10:00 AM EST =

2/8/17; 11:15 AM EST = +100 signal line is +71 but algorithm remains short

2/8/17; 9:47 AM EST = +84; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short

2/7/17; 2:09 PM EST = +68; signal line is +69

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the sideways choppy slop continues. Markets remain a crap shoot. The algo number is only one measly point under the signal line clearly illustrating that a knock-down, drag-out bull-bear battle continues. Flip a coin.

The algo identifies retail stocks, utes and commodities as the three key areas most impacting stock market price direction currently. The bears need UTIL under 662 (now at 663) and/or GTX under 2354 (now at 2372). If either parameter fails, the bears are in good shape and the stock market will begin trailing lower.

The bulls need UTIL above 666 (now at 663) and/or RTH above 76.52 (now at 76.29) to prove that up is the direction ahead for the stock market. If one of the two parameters turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 2299, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation is in play.

For the SPX starting at 2293, the bulls need to push above 2299 and bingo, the S&P 500 will run firmly above 2300 in a heartbeat. The bears need to push under 2290 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2291-2298 is sideways action.

Bulls need higher retail stocks and utilities. Bears need lower utilities and commodities. RTH 76.52, UTIL 666, UTIL 662 and SPX 2299 will tell the stock market direction story for hump day.

2/12/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/10/17; 10:00 AM EST =

2/7/17; 2:09 PM EST = +68; signal line is +69

2/7/17; 1:58 PM EST = +52; signal line is +70

2/7/17; 1:17 PM EST = +68; signal line is +71

2/6/17; 1:45 PM EST = +52; signal line is +71

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the sideways chop continues. The algo prints five numbers today. Same old story. Bulls need either UTIL above 662 and/or RTH above 76.53 to create an upside move in the stock markets. If both turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 2296, Keybot may flip long. if one of the two parameters turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play.

The bears need to push commodities, GTX, under 2354, now at 2389, to create more downside action in the broad stock market. Lower copper and higher volatility will also help bears.

For the SPX starting at 2293, the bulls need to move above 2296 to accelerate the S&P 500 to 2300 in a flash. The bears need to push below 2289 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2290-2295 is sideways action for Tuesday. Watch UTIL 662, RTH 76.53 and SPX 2296 on Tuesday.

2/12/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/10/17; 10:00 AM EST =

2/6/17; 1:45 PM EST = +52; signal line is +71

2/6/17; 12:31 PM EST = +68; signal line is +72

2/6/17; 11:25 AM EST = +52; signal line is +72

2/6/17; 11:18 AM EST = +68; signal line is +73

2/6/17; 9:53 AM EST = +52; signal line is +73

2/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +74

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot remains short to begin the new week of trading. Friday was a big up day after the jobs report laid an egg with wage data. The inflation, that the Federal Reserve and other central bankers are trying to create for the last eight years, cannot exist without wage inflation. Therefore, the central banker easy money will continue and equities rally. The central bankers are the market.

Despite Friday's euphoria, the quant did not flip long. The model teased at flipping to the long side but instead remains short. The Keybot the Quant algorithm told you that UTIL 662 would be key at Friday's closing bell and UTIL ended at 662.07. Isn't it amazing the model can call out the key areas that are most influential at determining broad market stock direction at any given time as well as their respective key levels?

For Monday, utilities and retail stocks continue to be the two key areas most impacting the stock market direction currently. Market bears need UTIL  under 662 right away which will help move the stock market lower. Bulls need UTIL to print above 662 in the opening minutes to indicate that stocks will be rallying going forward. Bulls will also benefit if UTIL moves above 665 and/or RTH above 76.53 (starting at 76.36). If UTIL stays above 662, or if RTH moves above 76.53, either one will do, and the SPX moves above 2298, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

For the SPX starting at 2297, the bulls need one point higher, to move above 2298, and bingo, stocks will rally several points higher to 2305 and more. The bears need to push the SPX under 2288 to regain their mojo. A move through 2289-2297 is sideways action to begin the week. S&P futures are coy, not tipping their hands, up +1 or +2 points about five hours before the opening bell. The choppy sideways slop continues in markets chewing up bulls and bears alike. The stock market remains a coin flip.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. UTIL 662, RTH 76.53 and SPX 2298-plus will tell the stock market direction story after the opening bell.

2/12/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/10/17; 10:00 AM EST =

2/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +74

2/3/17; 12:58 PM EST = +68; signal line is +74

2/3/17; 11:28 AM EST = +84; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains short

2/3/17; 9:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +74

2/2/17; 1:39 PM EST = +68; signal line is +75

January Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-01 is Available from Amazon; DOW 20,000; SPX 2,300; SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, NYA and TRAN All-Time Highs; President Trump Inauguration 1/20/17; Trump Signs Executive Orders; Pound is Pounded; Global Populism

The January Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-01 is available through Amazon. The epic market action continues with the Trump Rally marching on from November through January.

January’s Cover Highlights;

DOW 20,000

SPX 2,300

SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, NYA, and TRAN ALL-TIME HIGHS

PRESIDENT TRUMP INAUGURATION 1/20/17

TRUMP SIGNS EXECUTIVE ORDERS

POUND IS POUNDED

GLOBAL POPULISM

The month of January is historic with the Dow Jones Industrials printing above 20,000 for the first time in history. The next day the SPX prints above 2,300 for the first time ever. The chronology describes the epic event as it occurs in real-time highlighting the companies and sectors that put the indexes over the top.

The bulls continue buying stocks with reckless abandon believing in President Trump’s promises of infrastructures spending, reduced regulations and lower taxes and of course the ongoing belief and trust in the central bankers. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, NYSE Composite and Dow Jones Transports all print all-time record highs in January although interestingly, the Russell 2000 small caps are still unable to rise above their early December highs.

President Trump is officially in office and begins his four-year term. President Obama rides off into the sunset dumping a host of problems in Trump’s lap. But such is the fate of all newly elected presidents. President Trump begins signing executive orders like a madman making good on campaign promises but one-half of the country is in a tizzy over the actions.

The Italian banking problem continues to fester and stink like garbage in the hot summer sun. Central bankers are figuring a way to bailout the troubled Italian, Spanish and Portuguese banks. Portugal markets are very sick but no one is paying attention.

The UK’s pound is pounded to the 1.19-1.20 area but sterling recovers back above 1.24 in early February. The global populism movement continues with elections on tap this spring in Netherlands and France. LePen is gaining in the polls causing angst across Europe.

The chronology explains the reaction in stocks, bonds and currencies to key events and economic data releases. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists in this format where the stock, bond and currency moves are provided and explained as world events take place in real-time. You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past event including Brexit, the US election, economic data releases, Fed meetings, etc...

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As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of GlobalMarkets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publication contains updated information not posted on the keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

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STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The market action is wild. Note that UTIL came down to 655 but bounced. Then RTH moved above 76.55 and ends the session only 3 pennies away at 76.52 under 76.55. Isn't it amazing that the quant can identify these key areas and the exact levels before they occur? It is fascinating.

At any rate, the battle is at RTH 76.55 when the Friday morning bell rings. If RTH remains under 76.55 and drops lower, the bears are in good shape and stocks will retreat. If RTH moves above 76.55 and heads higher, the bulls are rallying the troops and stocks will move higher. If RTH moves above 76.55 and the SPX moves above 2284, Keybot will likely flip long. Hence, the imminent turn notation is placed in the title line.

UTIL 665 and 655 remain key for Friday, however, at 4 PM, the closing bell, the 655 number becomes useless and is replaced with 662.00. With UTIL starting at 662.23, the bulls need to push above 665 and the stock market will be rallying higher with traders celebrating into the weekend. If UTIL drops below 655, the stock market will begin falling like a rock.

At the closing bell, watch where UTIL closes since it provides a heads-up for next week. If UTIL finishes above the 662-665 area, the bears are toast and the bulls will rule the markets with a few weeks of upside ahead--as long as UTIL remains above 665 heading higher. If UTIL finishes the week below 662, the broad stock market will be in big trouble come Monday morning and may roll over and collapse.

For Friday with the SPX starting at 2281, the bulls need to push above 2284 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 2272 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2273-2283 is sideways action to end the week. Watch RTH 76.55, UTIL 665 and 655, and SPX 2284. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning before the opening bell.

2/5/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/3/17; 9:00 AM EST =

2/2/17; 1:39 PM EST = +68; signal line is +75

2/2/17; 10:51 AM EST = +84; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains short

2/1/17; 12:59 PM EST = +68; signal line is +77

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The market drama continues. The SPX gapped-up so the model held off for the long side then retail stocks and utes quickly collapsed. The whippy choppy market action continues. UTIL fell like a rock to test, and fail, at the 655.00 level, but then recovered back above. The bears need to push UTIL under 655 which will trigger downside selling for the broad indexes.

The bulls  need to keep UTIL above 655 (now at 656) and try to push it above 665 to gain upside strength. Bulls will also benefit if they can push RTH above 76.55 (now at 76.28). So watch UTIL 655 like a hawk at the Thursday opening bell.

For the SPX on Thursday starting at 2280, the bulls need to move above 2289 to accelerate the upside which will target 2300 quickly. The bears need to push under 2272 to accelerate the downside and be in the mid 2260's so fast your head will spin. A move through 2273-2288 is sideways action for Thursday. Markets remain erratic and wild; keep your head down.

UTIL 655 and RTH 76.55 will tell you what you need to know for Thursday. If RTH moves above 76.55 or UTIL above 665, and the SPX moves above 2289, Keybot will likely flip long. Every day is a circus.

2/5/17; 7:00 PM EST =

2/3/17; 9:00 AM EST =

2/1/17; 12:59 PM EST = +68; signal line is +77

2/1/17; 12:48 PM EST = +52; signal line is +77

2/1/17; 9:39 AM EST = +68; signal line is +79

2/1/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains short

1/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +100; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains short