STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side with markets chopping sideways. The algo did not print any numbers on Wednesday. Market bulls will win big and guarantee far more upside if XLF moves above 23.93. Market bears will stop the relief rally in the stock market by pushing JJC under 30.44, RTH under 78.21 and/or VIX above 11.85. Any one of the three parameters will stop the rally. If 2 or all 3 turn bearish, stocks will be falling like a rock. If one of these three parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 2353, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.The beat goes on.

4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =

3/31/17; 10:00 AM EST =

3/28/17; 3:57 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69; go long 2361; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = -1.5%)

Note Added 11:30 AM EST: Stocks are rallying higher with the SPX up 8 points to 2369. The XLF is at 23.89. The algo identifies 23.95 as the key bull-bear line in the sand. So the rally means nothing unless  the banks strengthen and XLF moves above 23.95. The market bulls need another 6 pennies to prove they have the beans to take the stock market higher. Bears must prevent XLF from printing 23.95 with all their might. XLF moves higher now 23.91, the HOD, .........

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today at SPX 2361. This move came out of the blue. The day started uneventfully but then stocks started ramping higher. You saw the VIX fall through the 11.85 level so you knew the rally was in progress. The bulls then pulled copper and retail stocks into the bull camp to pump the stock market higher.

As always, and especially in these erratic markets, stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the short side tomorrow. The market bears need either JJC under 30.43, RTH under 78.16 and/or VIX above 11.85 to stop the rally dead in its track. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, stocks will begin falling in earnest. All three turning bearish and stocks will sink like a stone.

The bulls need to push the banks higher to firmly establish a solid and sustainable relief rally. Bulls must push XLF above 23.94 to receive more upside juice for equities. If banks remain bearish, and copper, retail stocks and volatility remain bullish, stocks will float along sideways with an upward bias.

For hump day with the SPX starting at 2359, the bulls need to touch the 2364 handle and bingo, the S&P 500 will accelerate higher into the 2370's. The bears need to push below 2338 to accelerate the downside.  A move through 2339-2363 is sideways action.

On the last trade, the algorithm program gains almost +1% and is up +1.5% on the year. The actual trading gains +1.4% but remains negative on the year down -1.5%. The benchmark SPX is up +5.5% this year thus far. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO.

4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =

3/31/17; 10:00 AM EST =

3/28/17; 3:57 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69; go long 2361; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = -1.5%)

3/28/17; 11:47 AM EST = +54; signal line is +70

3/28/17; 11:41 AM EST = +38; signal line is +72

3/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +73

3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +76

3/21/17; 11:10 AM EST = +24; signal line is +78

3/21/17; 10:59 AM EST = +38; signal line is +81

3/21/17; 10:20 AM EST = +54; signal line is +83

3/21/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +84

3/20/17; 3:55 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains short

3/20/17; 2:53 PM EST = +70; signal line is +85

3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short

3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short

3/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87

3/15/17; 11:31 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87

3/15/17; 11:12 AM EST = +70; signal line is +88

3/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +88

3/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +88

3/10/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +89

3/7/17; 10:17 AM EST = +70; signal line is +90

3/6/17; 1:18 PM EST = +84; signal line is +91

3/6/17; 12:54 PM EST = +70; signal line is +91

3/6/17; 12:07 PM EST = +84; signal line is +92

3/6/17; 11:44 AM EST = +70; signal line is +93

3/6/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +93

3/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains shortt

3/3/17; 3:35 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains short

3/3/17; 9:59 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93; go short 2379; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as Sonny and Cher sings, 'the beat goes on'. The key metrics impacting market direction right now are volatility, copper and retail stocks. VIX sinks lower to 12.21 and fell to 11.93 a short time ago testing the level that the algorithm called out ahead of time at VIX 11.84-11.93. If VIX drops under 11.84, the market bulls will firmly establish a relief rally for the stock market. Bears will continue to sink the stock market lower if VIX remains above 11.84.

Keybot prints the first pre-scheduled number this week a short time ago. The bears are cruising with the algo number remaining 49 points under the signal line.

VIX comes down 11.94 after this message is typed so the battle rages on. Bears win above VIX 11.84. Bulls win below 11.84.

4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =

3/31/17; 10:00 AM EST =

3/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +73

3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +76

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish heading into the new week of trading. Copper and volatility remain the key drivers of broad stock market direction currently. If JJC moves above 30.45 (now at 30.24) and/or VIX below 11.92 (now at 12.96), a firm bottom will be placed in the stock market and prices will recover. If both turn bullish the relief recovery will be stronger. Overall, the bears remain in full control with the algo number 52 points below the signal line.

For the SPX starting at 2344, the bulls need to push above 2356 to accelerate the way higher. The bears need to push below 2336 to accelerate prices lower. A move through 2337-2355 is sideways action for stocks to begin the week.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and one on Friday morning. The EOM and EOQ1 occurs on Friday at 4 PM EST. The final monthly and quarterly number is registered by the Sunday, 4/2/17, pre-scheduled number. Bears are cheering for lower copper and higher volatility while bulls cheer for higher copper and lower volatility; both can be monitored in the overnight futures into Monday's opening bell.

4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =

3/31/17; 10:00 AM EST =

3/28/17; 10:00 AM EST =

3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +76

3/21/17; 11:10 AM EST = +24; signal line is +78

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and idles along sideways for the last couple days. The previous important parameters remain bearish so stocks are staggering sideways. Copper shows signs of life which may place a bottom in stocks. Watch JJC 30.45 (now at 30.35 only one dime below) which will place a firm floor in the stock market. Bulls will receive upside fuel if VIX drops under 11.92 and/or RTH above 78.22. Any one of the three parameters will place a floor in stocks.

Bears need to keep JJC under 30.45, VIX above 11.92 and RTH below 78.22 and they will continue to slap the bulls around.

For the SPX starting at 2346, the bulls need to touch the 2359 handle and price will accelerate higher. The bears need to push below 2342 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2343-2358 is sideways action for Friday. Higher copper will kick the bulls into rally mode. S&P futures are up +8 on Thursday evening. Bears need copper to trade lower to kick in more market selling. Copper is currently trading down -0.4%.

3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/21/17; 11:10 AM EST = +24; signal line is +78

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears seek revenge against the bulls in Tuesday's session. There is serious technical damage done with copper, banks, retail stocks and volatility. For Wednesday, the bulls can stop the market selling by either pushing VIX below 11.92 and/or RTH above 78.25. VIX trades before the stock market opens for the regular session and will provide a hint on market direction. If the VIX remains above 12 and the RTH remains under 78.25, the stock market will float along sideways with a downward bias.

For the SPX on hump day starting at 2344, the bulls need to push above 2382 to get their mojo back a formidable task but anything can happen in these markets. The bears need to push below 2342, only a couple points lower, to accelerate the downside. A move through 2343-2381 is sideways action for Wednesday. VIX 11.92 may play a key role in the hump day trade. The bears are in charge and growling strongly with the algo number 54 points under the signal line.

3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/21/17; 11:10 AM EST = +24; signal line is +78

Quarterly Reminder

It is time for the Quarterly Reminder;

The KE Stone family of blogs include Keybot the Quant, The Keystone Speculator and Keystone the Scribe. The blogs only continue with the support of the tens of thousands of daily international users. Blog content is posted according to the amount of support received from the hundreds of thousands of views each month. The handy donation link is provided in the right margin.

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The overall support for the websites will be assessed over the next couple weeks. If the blogs do not receive broad support and participation, they will end or at least go on hiatus for a while again. It is all up to you especially you cheapskates at the large investment banks that monitor the KE Stone blogs each day. Let some moths out of those wallets.

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Go through your closets and drawers and donate old clothes and other items to the local thrift shops. Gather all the canned goods in your pantry that you do not plan to eat and donate those items to local thrift shops or the local food bank in your area.

Remember, “You can’t take your money with you when you croak” and “money does not make you happy.” As you age, you realize that providing compassion to the disadvantaged and poor and helping those in need is what provides eternal riches.

Thank you all for your continued support for the KE Stone blogs.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears showed up to play today and are bludgeoning the bulls. You saw copper down strongly overnight into the opening bell so you knew the gain of 6 points in the S&P futures did not mean anything. Copper started the ball rolling down hill and retail stocks, financials and volatility are crushing stocks lower.

The bulls need to send the VIX back below 11.92 as quick as possible to stop the market selling. Bulls can also stop the market selling by pushing XLF, the banks, above 24.04. The bears are growling. Focus on the price action around VIX 11.92 and XLF 24.04 since this will dictate broad stock market direction.

3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/21/17; 11:10 AM EST = +24; signal line is +78

3/21/17; 10:59 AM EST = +38; signal line is +81

3/21/17; 10:20 AM EST = +54; signal line is +83

3/21/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +84

3/20/17; 3:55 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo is champing at the bit to go long. The algo number is one point above the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move to the long side. Note that the bulls jogged copper, JJC, below and above the critical 30.46 bull-bear line in the sand which turned the model in the bulls favor. This was mentioned in the previous message; after a while you begin to notice patterns in the markets.

If the SPX touches and moves above 2380, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The bears need either JJC under 30.46 and/or RTH under 78.25 and/or VIX above 11.91. If any of the three turn bearish, Keybot will not flip to the long side and instead stocks will begin tumbling lower. If the downside in stocks occurs, the magnitude of the move lower is dictated as per if one, two or all three of the parameters turn bearish, or not. Watch copper overnight as an early indication on stock market direction for tomorrow. Bears need negative copper overnight while bulls will be happy with copper moving higher.The VIX begins trading at 4 AM EST so that will provide an early hint for market direction as well. 

For Tuesday, with the S&P 500 starting at 2373, the bulls need to push above 2380 to accelerate the upside and flip the algorithm long as explained above. Bulls would be best off with a slow and steady move higher in stocks rather than a gap-up move. The bears need to push below 2370 to accelerate the downside and regain control of market direction. A move through 2371-2379 is sideways action for Tuesday.

The bulls have it on a silver platter if they want it; they need SPX 2380. The bears will create downside selling in stocks with weaker copper, weaker retailers and/or higher volatility. The table is set for Tuesday. Which side will win?

3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/20/17; 3:55 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains short

3/20/17; 2:53 PM EST = +70; signal line is +85

3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short heading into the new week of trading but the algo wants to flip long. The internal programming parameters are not completely latching to allow the move. The bulls need GTX above 2345 to gain upside strength for stocks. The bears need JJC under 30.41, RTH under 78.22 and/or VIX above 12.48. One of the above four parameters need to flip to prove the direction ahead. Until then, more choppy sideways.

Watch to see if JJC jogs above and below 30.41 since that may hint that the algo is getting ready to flip long. The bears need copper to weaken and JJC to drop through 30.41 and to continue lower.

For the SPX starting at 2378, the bulls need to push above 2386 to accelerate the upside which will quickly run into the low 2390's. The bears need to push below 2378, only one point lower, to accelerate the downside. A move through 2379-2385 is sideways action to begin the week. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week.

3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short

3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend. The bulls and bears are fighting it out with the algo number and signal line the same number. Copper, volatility and commodities will be key next week. The key parameters and levels impacting broad stock market direction can be identified after the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints.

3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short but the bulls keep pushing for control. The pre-scheduled number prints this morning creating an interesting outcome. Both the algo number and the signal line are,....... wait for it, ........the same number at +86. Keybot is setting up to go long but the internal programming parameters are not yet latched to permit the move. The status is quo with the three previous parameters highlighted, JJC 30.40, VIX 12.48 and GTX 2345. Copper and volatility remain bullish while commodities remain bearish. One of these three should flinch at some point forward.

The SPX is,....... wait for it, ........2379, where the algo went short a few days ago. The markets are providing a lot of theatrics and drama but not going anywhere. Pay attention to copper; it may start playing games. The JJC 30.40 level is key.

3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short

3/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short heading into the Friday session. The bears need JJC under 30.40 (now at 30.69) and/or VIX above 12.48 (now at 11.21) to send the stock market lower. The bulls need to push GTX above 2345 (now at 2259) to send stocks higher. If the status quo remains, stocks will move sideways with a slight upward bias. One of these three parameters are going to flinch going forward. Copper may be sneaky at that JJC 30.40 level. If price oscillates above and below this key level that is hinting that Keybot may be setting up to flip long. The bears need JJC to fall through 30.40 and to keep on dropping like a rock.

For the SPX starting at 2381, the bulls need to push above 2388 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push below 2377 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2378-2387 is sideways action. Keybot printed a pre-scheduled number this morning and prints another on Friday morning one-half hour after the opening bell.

3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST =

3/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87

3/15/17; 11:31 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after the Federal Reserve hikes the key rate by 25 bips today. The algo prints three numbers in the morning before the Fed announcement. The algo number is only one point under the signal line. The caution flag is out. Bulls need GTX above 2345 to create more buying in stocks. Watch JJC 30.39, now at 30.58 creating bullishness in the stock market. If you see JJC oscillating above and below the 30.39 number tomorrow, the model is likely setting up to go long.

Bears need to push JJC under 30.39 and keep it under. The bears need RTH under 78.16 and/or the VIX above 12.51. RTH came down to the 78.16-ish level, that the algo called out ahead of time, and bounced.

For the SPX on Thursday starting at 2385, the bulls need to push above 2390 and price will be on its way to 2400. The bears need to push below 2369 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2370-2389 is sideways action for Thursday. The bears are hanging on by a thread. The bears need lower copper and retail stocks and higher volatility.

3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST =

3/16/17; 9:00 AM EST =

3/15/17; 11:31 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87

3/15/17; 11:12 AM EST = +70; signal line is +88

3/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +88

3/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +88

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short heading into the Wednesday session and the historic Federal Reserve rate decision. The algo has not yet printed any numbers this week. Bears need lower retail stocks and higher volatility while bulls need higher copper.

Bears need VIX above 12.51 (now at 12.41) and/or RTH under 78.13 (now at 78.47). Bulls need JJC above 30.39 (now at 30.28). Copper and volatility are ruling broad stock market direction currently.

For the SPX starting at 2365 on hump day, the bears need to push below 2358 to accelerate the downside to 2351 in a flash. The bulls need to push above 2369 to accelerate the upside. A move through 2359-2368 is sideways action on the epic FOMC decision day.

3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST =

3/16/17; 9:00 AM EST =

3/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +88

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The week is off to a quiet sleepy start. The algo did not print any numbers in the Monday session. Bulls need JJC above 30.35 (higher copper). Bears need lower retail stocks, RTH under 78.13, and/or higher volatility, VIX above 12.48. If the three parameters remain status quo, the stock market floats along sideways.

The Federal Reserve rate decision and press conference is an epic event on tap for Wednesday. 

For the SPX starting Tuesday at 2373, the bulls need one point of upside, to move above 2374, and the SPX will quickly launch towards 2380. The bears need to push under 2369 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2370-2373 is sideways action for Tuesday but this is such a tight range, price will likely choose a direction.

Watch copper closely that JJC 30.35 number will confirm that the bulls are fighting back, until then, with JJC under 30.35, the bears are in full control.

3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST =

3/16/17; 9:00 AM EST =

3/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +88

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the new week of trading. The bears are in control by keeping copper and commodities subdued with JJC under 30.42 and GTX under 2355. This keeps the bears in good shape unless both parameters would turn bullish again. One thing to watch is if copper rallies and JJC price begins jogging above and below the key 30.42 level since that will hint that the bulls are trying to get the model to flip bullish.

The market bears need RTH under 78.05 (lower retail stocks) and/or VIX above 12.71 (higher volatility) to create a strong leg lower in stocks. If both fail, the stock market will be falling like a rock. The epic Federal Reserve rate decision is on Wednesday afternoon this week.

For the SPX starting at 2373, the bulls need to touch the 2377 handle and bingo, price will be in the 2380's in a flash. The market bears need to push below 2363 to accelerate the downside quickly into the 2350's. A move through 2364-2376 is sideways action to begin the week.

Bulls need JJC above 30.42 which will stop the market selling. Bears need RTH under 78.05 and VIX above 12.71 which would create market carnage. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Thursday morning and the other Friday morning which is St Patrick's Day. If copper trades higher overnight tonight, that hints that the stock market may be buoyant on Monday.

3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST =

3/16/17; 9:00 AM EST =

3/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +88

3/10/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +89

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short after the US Monthly Jobs Report. The stock market is staggering sideways with the SPX up 10 points at 2375. Copper and commodities remain bearish. Retail stocks remain bullish. VIX is at 11.63. The bears need higher volatility and VIX above 12.71 which will create big selling in the stock market. The bulls are in great shape with the VIX under 12.71; the bulls are cheering the ongoing low volatility laughing at the bears and poking them with a stick.

3/12/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/10/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +89

3/7/17; 10:17 AM EST = +70; signal line is +90

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side heading into the Thursday session. The algo has not printed any numbers since Tuesday. Retail stocks rallied yesterday so the bears did not receive any additional downside strength. Bears need lower retail stocks and higher volatility. Bulls need higher copper and commodities.

Bears need RTH under 78 and/or VIX above 12.71. Bulls need either JJC above 30.50 and/or GTX above 2367. Bears got nothing without volatility moving higher. VIX 12.71 is a key bull-bear line in the sand. As this message is typed 90 minutes before the opening bell for the regular session, VIX is at 12.00.

For the SPX starting at 2363, the bulls need 10 points to push above 2373 to accelerate the upside. Bears need to push the SPX below 2361, only 2 points lower, to accelerate the downside. A move through 2362-2372 is sideways action for Thursday. S&P futures are down -3.

The ECB rate decision occurs a few minutes ago and it is as expected but more importantly, President Draghi begins speaking in a half hour. Stocks may continue to idle sideways ahead of the all-important US Monthly Jobs Report which will hit the wires this time tomorrow morning. The bears remain in control. Watch VIX 12.71 closely since stocks will tumble lower if it is exceeded.

3/12/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/10/17; 9:00 AM EST =

3/7/17; 10:17 AM EST = +70; signal line is +90

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. GTX failed through 2366.80 which maintains stock market negativity but the bears are jipped. More downside in the SPX would be expected with copper and commodities both now in the bear camp.

For Wednesday, the bulls need higher copper or committees, JJC above 30.52 and/or GTX above 2366.80, respectively. The bears need weaker retail stocks by pushing RTH below 78.00.

For the SPX starting at 2368, the bulls need to push above 2375 and the upside will accelerate to 2380 in a flash. The bears need to push below 2366 and stocks will accelerate strongly lower with the SPX dropping into the 2350's very quickly. A move through 2367-2374 is sideways action for hump day.

The algo number is 20 points below the signal line so the bears are starting to cruise. Bears win big with RTH below 78.00. Bulls will stop the downside in stocks with GTX 2366.80. Stocks may stagger sideways until the ECB rate decision and President Draghi press conference on Thursday morning one day away.

3/10/17; 9:00 AM EST =

3/7/17; 10:17 AM EST = +70; signal line is +90

3/6/17; 1:18 PM EST = +84; signal line is +91

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Tuesday trading day. The algo prints five numbers on Monday to begin the week. The bulls are keeping GTX above the critical 2366.87 line in the sand, however, copper is weak and when JJC opened below the critical 30.54 line in the sand, you knew the trading day would favor the bears. The weakness in copper was the key element in taking the broad stock indexes lower to begin the week.

Market bears need lower commodities, higher volatility and/or lower retail stocks to usher in more market negativity. Watch GTX 2366.87 (now at 2368.48), VIX 12.70 (now at 11.24) and RTH 78.00 (now at 78.43). Each parameter that flips bearish will cause a serious downside leg in the stock market. Market bulls must focus on pushing copper higher. If JJC moves back above 30.54 (now at 30.44), the market selling is over and stocks will rally.

For the SPX starting at 2375, the bulls need to push above 2379 and bingo, the upside will accelerate higher. If JJC moves above 30.54, the bulls will be singing, "Happy Days are Here Again." Market bears need to push the SPX under 2368 to accelerate the downside. A move through the 2369-2378 is sideways action for Tuesday.

The bears remain in control but the caution flag is out. If JJC moves above 30.54, consider the imminent turn to be in play and if the SPX would move above 2379, Keybot will likely flip long. Copper and commodities are the two key parameters most impacting stock market direction and both are impacted by the move of the US dollar index. Bears win big with GTX under 2366.87. Bulls win big with JJC above 30.54.

Watch copper futures in overnight trading since it will tell you a lot about the US stock market direction tomorrow. Copper is currently rising +0.3% to 2.666. Interestingly, and humorously, since the robots always run the show, a +0.3% gain in copper places JJC right at the critical 30.54 bull-bear line in the sand. As copper goes, so goes the markets.

3/10/17; 9:00 AM EST =

3/6/17; 1:18 PM EST = +84; signal line is +91

3/6/17; 12:54 PM EST = +70; signal line is +91

3/6/17; 12:07 PM EST = +84; signal line is +92

3/6/17; 11:44 AM EST = +70; signal line is +93

3/6/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +93

3/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains shortt

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the short side to begin the new week of trading. The market bulls staged a come back on Friday afternoon sending GTX (commodities) above the important bull-bear line in the sand at 2366.87 now printing at 2367.07. This sets up the algo to potentially whipsaw back to the long side so Monday will be an important day.

The market bears need GTX under 2366.87 and it will be smooth sailing lower for the stock market. VIX (volatility) above 12.80 will fan the flames of negativity causing another drop in the stock market. Ditto if JJC (copper) falls under 30.50.

If the SPX touches the 2384 handle and moves higher, Keybot will likely flip back to the long side but the move to the long side may not occur until around 10 AM EST Monday unless the SPX moves above 2402 during the first one-half hour of trading. The bulls would benefit from a slow move higher in stocks since a gap-up move in price at the opening bell may delay the move to the long side for the first 90 minutes of trading.

For Monday with the SPX starting at 2383, the bulls only need one point, to push above 2384, and this will accelerate a move higher and likely cause Keybot to jump back on the long bandwagon. Thus, watch the S&P futures overnight to see if any smidge of positivity occurs since this likely indicates a happy Monday for bulls. The bears need to keep the S&P futures negative and push the SPX under 2375 which will create a downward acceleration in stocks. A move through 2376-2383 is sideways action to begin the week.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. GTX 2366.87 and SPX 2384 tell you what you need to know for Monday's stock market direction.

3/12/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/10/17; 9:00 AM EST =

3/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains short

3/3/17; 3:35 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains short

3/3/17; 9:59 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93; go short 2379; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.9%)

February Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-02 is Available from Amazon; Stocks are Melting Up; All-Time Highs; SPX 2372; INDU 20851; COMPQ 5862; NDX 5348; RUT 1408; NYA 11558; Trump Promises Lower Taxes; Huge Infrastructure Spending and Reduced Regulations; Fed Touting Rate Hike for 3/15/17; Trump-Russia Connection?; France Presidential Election Drama; Bitcoin 1200

The February Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets andWorld Economics 2017-02 is available through Amazon. The epic market action continues with more new all-time stock market highs. The one-half of the United States that own stocks are joyous day after day while the other half of the United States struggles through eight years of high unemployment and debt. The gap between rich and poor is the widest in five decades.

February’s Cover Highlights;

STOCKS ARE MELTING UP

ALL-TIME HIGHS; SPX 2372, INDU 20851, COMPQ 5862, NDX 5348, RUT 1408, NYA 11558

TRUMP PROMISES LOWER TAXES, HUGE INFASTRUCTURE SPENDING AND REDUCED REGULATIONS

FED TOUTING RATE HIKE FOR 3/15/17

TRUMP-RUSSIA CONNECTION?

FRANCE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DRAMA

BICOIN 1200

The chronology describes the epic market, political and economic events as they occur in real-time. The stock market continues melting up on promises from President Trump for lower taxes, huge infrastructures spending and reduced regulations.

President Trump is embroiled in a controversy that he and his staff had contact with Russians before the election but there is no proof this occurred.

The global populism movement continues with elections approaching in the Netherlands and France. Le Pen and Macron are the front runners in the France presidential election race. Bitcoin approaches 1200 and rises above. In early March, bitcoin price surpasses the gold price.

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STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bear side this morning at SPX 2379 where price sits as this is typed. GTX remains under the critical 2366-2367 level (note how price came up to kiss this level and then retreated). Market bulls need GTX above 2366-2367 to stop the market selling and resume the uptrend for equities.

Bears need higher volatility, the VIX above 12.84, to send stocks sharply lower. VIX is at 11.31. Stocks stumble sideways until either GTX turns bullish, or VIX turns bearish. As always, stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the long side.

The benchmark S&P 500 is now up +6.3% on the year. On the last trade, the algorithm program and the actual trading each gain about +4%. The Keybot program is now positive on the year up +0.7%. The actual trading continues to lag down -2.9% so far this year. Keybot exits SPY and enters SDS. The robot is back in the double ETF's unless a whipsaw occurs which would kick it back down into single ETF's.

3/5/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/3/17; 9:59 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93; go short 2379; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.9%)

3/2/17; 11:34 AM EST = +86 signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long

3/2/17; 11:13 AM EST = +100 signal line is +91

3/2/17; 10:10 AM EST = +86 signal line is +90 but algorithm remains long

3/2/17; 9:49 AM EST = +100 signal line is +88

3/2/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86 signal line is +87 but algorithm remains long

3/1/17; 9:36 AM EST = +100 signal line is +86

2/28/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +86 signal line is +85

2/28/17; 3:59 PM EST = +86 signal line is +84

2/28/17; 3:55 PM EST = +100 signal line is +83

2/28/17; 3:44 PM EST = +86 signal line is +82

2/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100 signal line is +82

2/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100 signal line is +81

2/24/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100 signal line is +79

2/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100 signal line is +79

2/16/17; 9:53 AM EST = +100 signal line is +78

2/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +84 signal line is +76

2/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84 signal line is +75

2/14/17; 3:30 PM EST = +100 signal line is +75

2/14/17; 2:40 PM EST = +84 signal line is +75

2/14/17; 2:11 PM EST = +100 signal line is +76

2/14/17; 10:09 AM EST = +84 signal line is +75

2/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100 signal line is +75

2/10/17; 10:28 AM EST = +100 signal line is +74

2/10/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84 signal line is +72

2/9/17; 11:31 AM EST = +84 signal line is +71

2/8/17; 11:15 AM EST = +100; signal line is +71; go long 2293; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +2.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -3.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2017 = -6.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bears tried to flip the model short but are not successful. Keybot wants to flip short but the internal parameters will not fully latch as yet to permit the move. The VIX ran higher this morning towards the 12.86 but the bulls rushed in to crush the VIX. GTX fails under the important 2367 level which ushers in market weakness. The bears could not gain traction lower in the stock market because volatility was jammed lower. The SPX came down to kiss the 2380 level but would not fail there. Isn't it amazing that Keybot can call out these key areas and inflection points before they occur?

The market bears need the SPX to drop under 2380 to flip the model short and begin downside damage. However, the bears do not want a gap-down move at the opening bell since this will likely trigger a timer that prevents the move to the short side for approximately 90 minutes. Bears will be happy if the SPX drifts slowly lower under 2380 then progresses slowly lower. So the bears need to see only 2 negative points in the S&P futures to set up a negative day for Friday and to flip the algo short. If VIX moves above 12.84, the stock market is toast. Bulls will continue to rule if the VIX remains under 12.84.

The SPX begins Friday at 2382. The bulls need to push above 2395 to send the SPX above 2400 in quick order. GTX 2367, VIX 12.84 and SPX 2380 tells you everything you need to know for Friday.

3/5/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/2/17; 11:34 AM EST = +86 signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long

3/2/17; 11:13 AM EST = +100 signal line is +91

3/2/17; 10:10 AM EST = +86 signal line is +90 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. Commodities are breaking down in the early going with GTX  under the critical bull-bear line at 2366.90 identified by the algo. VIX jumped up to 12.71 teasing the 12.86 called out by Keybot then collapsed on its sword now down to 11.93. The bulls would not let that happen since they know the party is over with VIX above 12.86.

But GTX under 2367 is enough to keep the algo number under the signal line and open the door to flip short but the internal programming parameters will not fully latch to allow the move into the bear camp. Bears have to keep pushing. Keybot will likely flip short if SPX drops under 2380, hence the imminent turn notation is now in the title line. Bulls need to push GTX above 2366.90 and they will be on easy street again. If VIX moves above 12.86, the stock market will fall apart and take a sharp and strong leg lower.

3/5/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/2/17; 10:10 AM EST = +86 signal line is +90 but algorithm remains long

3/2/17; 9:49 AM EST = +100 signal line is +88

3/2/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86 signal line is +87 but algorithm remains long

3/1/17; 9:36 AM EST = +100 signal line is +86

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long heading into the Thursday session. The bears were smacked in the face again yesterday. The VIX dropped in the early morning hours so you knew the bulls were in favor and they go on to print the strongest day of the year and SPX 2400 and Dow 21K.

Keybot is jammed into the ceiling again at +100 an epic and historic maximum high reading. If the VIX moves above 12.86, and/or the GTX drops under 2369, stocks will sell off strongly. If either parameter turns bearish, only one is necessary, and the SPX drops under 2280, Keybot will likely flip short. Bears need higher volatility and lower commodities.

For the SPX starting at 2396, at all-time highs, the bulls need to push above 2400 and price will rocket towards 2410. The bears need to push below 2280 to regain their  mojo. S&P futures are down -1 point a few minutes before the opening bell.

VIX 12.86 and GTX 2369 tell you what you need to know for market direction.

3/5/17; 7:00 PM EST =

3/1/17; 9:36 AM EST = +100 signal line is +86

2/28/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +86 signal line is +85