STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot flips back to the short side on Wednesday at SPX 2565. The algorithm has not printed any numbers yet today (Thursday). The sideways choppy slop continues. Do not be surprised if Keybot flips back to the long side again in these crazy, erratic and unstable markets.

The key metric controlling stock market direction currently is VIX 10.72. VIX is at 11.00 so the bears are in control. It does not matter if stocks are going up today. If the VIX remains above 10.72, the stock market will roll back over to the downside.

Market bulls win big if the VIX falls below 10.72. This would send equities to new record highs. Watch the VIX 10.72 bull-bear line in the sand very closely the rest of the week.

(Another signal line you can watch, although it is not programmmed into Keybot, is the VIX 200-day MA now at 11.22; this is a key short-term market signal where bulls win below 11.22 and bears win big if the VIX moves above 11.22).

On the last trade, the Keybot algo program lost -0.3% and the actual trading logs a marginal -0.2% loss. Keybot exited SPY and entered PSQ. The benchmark S&P 500 index, SPX, is up +14.6% this year. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.

VIX 10.72 tells you if the bulls or bears win going forward. If it is bearish, the VIX 11.22 tells you if it will be market carnage, or not.

10/29/17; 7:00 PM EST =

10/27/17; 10:00 AM EST =

10/25/17; 9:49 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94; go short 2565; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +14.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.0%)

10/24/17; 2:40 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long

10/24/17; 2:20 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94

10/24/17; 2:07 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long

10/24/17; 1:43 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93

10/24/17; 9:48 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long

10/24/17; 7:59 AM EST = +100; signal line is +92

10/23/17; 3:42 PM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long

10/22/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +91

10/20/17; 12:23 PM EST = +100; signal line is +90; go long 2572; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +14.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.4%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.2%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side but whipsawed late last week Thursday going short then flipping long again on Friday. Usually the algo avoids about 70% or 80% of the bear and bull traps but the drop in the stock market sucked Keybot in last Thursday. That was the day that later in the afternoon the Congress announced an agreement on a budget which paves an easier path to achieving a tax cut bill. Thus, stocks catapulted higher snaring the bear trap. On Friday morning, stocks gap up at the opening bell firmly slapping the bears in the face. Slap, slap.

So the algorithm remains long but Keybot is again champing at the bit to go short. The year is filled with this sideways choppy slop that chews up bulls and bears alike. Keybot is very active in the Tuesday trade printing six numbers. The bulls and bears keep fighting back and forth stealing the ball from each other but neither side is getting very far. The algo number is 8 points below the signal line so Keybot wants to go short.

Volatility is the key parameter impacting broad stock market direction currently. Watch VIX 10.72 as the bull-bear line in the sand. Market bears win big if the VIX stays above 10.72 and moves higher. Bulls win big if the VIX collapses below 10.72. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST overnight so if you cannot sleep check out where the VIX is at early tomorrow morning and it will tell you which way the stock market will move on hump day (the opposite direction).

If VIX remains above 10.72, and the SPX moves below 2566, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. Bears, however, would be best off if the SPX price slowly leaked lower under 2566 and a gap-down at the opening bell did not occur. If stocks gap down Wednesday morning, Keybot may delay a move to the short side until beyond 11 AM EST. Markets are extremely erratic and unstable.

The algo logged some nice gains on the long trade that ended 10/19/17 but then gave it back due to the whipsaw on 10/20/17. For the year, the S&P 500 is up a big time +15%. The Keybot algorithm program is up +2.4% and the actual trading is up +3.2% on the year. Keybot was in SPY on the long side and flipped into the 2x SDS ETF for the short side last Thursday. A 35-day timer expired so Keybot went back to using 2x ETF's but this was short-lived. Whack. The whipsaw occurs so the 35-day timer is triggered again and Keybot is back in the single ETF's until at least 11/24/17. Keybot exited SDS with the loss and reentered the single SPY ETF.

The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. Bears must send volatility higher with the VIX above 11 and 12 and 13 and more. Bulls simply need the VIX under 10.72 on Wednesday morning and they will slap the bears in the face once again. Slap, slap. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. The EOM is only 5 days away.

10/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/31/17; 10:00 AM EST =

10/29/17; 7:00 PM EST =

10/27/17; 10:00 AM EST =

10/24/17; 2:40 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long

10/24/17; 2:20 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94

10/24/17; 2:07 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long

10/24/17; 1:43 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93

10/24/17; 9:48 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long

10/24/17; 7:59 AM EST = +100; signal line is +92

10/23/17; 3:42 PM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long

10/22/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +91

10/20/17; 12:23 PM EST = +100; signal line is +90; go long 2572; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +14.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.4%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.2%)

10/19/17; 10:35 AM EST = +100; signal line is +88 but algorithm remains short

10/19/17; 9:52 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87; go short 2549; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +13.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +3.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +4.9%)

10/19/17; 9:47 AM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long

10/18/17; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +87

10/16/17; 1:31 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87

10/16/17; 12:41 PM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long

10/15/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87

10/13/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86

10/9/17; 3:52 PM EST = +100; signal line is +86

10/9/17; 3:21 PM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long

10/8/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87

10/6/17; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +87

10/4/17; 11:05 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86

10/3/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long

10/2/17; 3:59 PM EST = +100; signal line is +85

10/2/17; 3:49 PM EST = +84; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains long

10/2/17; 10:20 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84

10/2/17; 10:06 AM EST = +84; signal line is +83

10/2/17; 9:48 AM EST = +100; signal line is +82

10/1/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +84; signal line is +82

9/29/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82

9/29/17; 9:33 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82; go long 2511; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +12.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.2%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market drama continues. The market bears tried to create softness on Monday but the bulls slapped them across the face once again. Keybot remains pegged at the maximum +100 reading indicating epic and historic stock market action occurring.

The bulls are cruising higher this week with the Dow printing above 23,000 yesterday for the first time in history. The algo is tracking retail stocks and volatility currently. Market bears need either RTH under 80.91 (now at 81.10) and/or VIX above 10.76 (now at 10.15). If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 2555, Keybot will likely flip short. If retail stocks remain bullish and volatility remains subdued, the bulls will keep printing new market highs.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in a couple hours time before the opening bell on hump day. The bears can begin a downside move if they can weaken the retail stocks and/or send volatility higher.

10/22/17; 7:00 PM EST =

10/18/17; 9:00 AM EST =

10/16/17; 1:31 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87

10/16/17; 12:41 PM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long

10/15/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87

10/13/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86

10/9/17; 3:52 PM EST = +100; signal line is +86

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls keep slapping the bears around day after day. Slap, slap. On Monday, the algo dipped but the model did not flip short; it was a bear trap. The stock market party continues with Keybot pegged to the maximum reading at +100. These are historic and epic markets.

The SPX closes on Wednesday at a new all-time record high at 2555.24. Sound the Seven Trumpets! The algo is most focused on retail stocks and volatility currently. The market bears need either RTH under 80.80 and/or VIX above 10.75 to lock in stock market selling. If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX drops under 2548, Keybot will likely flip short. The bulls simply need retail stocks to remain elevated and volatility low and the upside stock market party will continue.

10/15/17; 7:00 PM EST =

10/13/17; 10:00 AM EST =

10/9/17; 3:52 PM EST = +100; signal line is +86

10/9/17; 3:21 PM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long

10/8/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. The bulls are on a euphoric high with the algo number pinned to the maximum +100 reading. The bears need either lower commodities and copper and/or higher volatility.

Bears need either GTX under 2254, JJC under 33.51 and/or VIX above 10.76. If any one of the three parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 2544, Keybot will likely flip to the short side, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

If commodities and copper remain strong, and volatility low, the bulls will keep slapping the bears silly day after day. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this week shortly after the opening bell on Friday the 13th.

10/15/17; 7:00 PM EST =

10/13/17; 10:00 AM EST =

10/8/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87

10/6/17; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +87

10/4/17; 11:05 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market melts-up higher day after day. This is epic and historic stock market action that will be talked about for years to come. The algo does not print any numbers today (Thursday) but prints one number yesterday. The algo is at +100 the maximum possible number. The bullish euphoria is off the charts.

Copper leaps higher. Utilities move higher. Volatility remains low. The bulls slap the bears in the face. Slap, slap. The bears need UTIL under 725.27 to introduce market weakness but this number expires at 4 PM EST Friday and is replaced with 706.91 a far easier number for bulls to beat for all of next week. Everything is going the bulls way.

The bears big hope is likely pinned on volatility. Bears desperately need a higher VIX. The VIX is at 9.19, a plaindrome, and bears need it to move above 10.76 to guarantee stock market selling ahead. If either UTIL moves below 725.27 or VIX above 10.76, either parameter will do, and the SPX moves below 2540, Keybot will likely flip short.

The bulls are singing happy songs showing zero concern for the future since even if a selloff occurs the central bankers will always support higher stock markets forever. Moral hazard. We are witnessing historic market activity in real-time.

The US Monthly Jobs Report drops tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST (1:30 PM London; 2:30 PM Central Europe; 9:30 PM Tokyo). Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 9 AM EST Friday morning one-half hour before the opening bell.

10/8/17; 7:00 PM EST =

10/6/17; 9:00 AM EST =

10/4/17; 11:05 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86

10/3/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo flipped to the long side on Friday morning and remains there but the algo number is now 2 points below the signal line wanting to flip back to the short side. Utilities, copper and volatility are controlling broad stock market direction currently. Note that Keybot is printing +100 numbers, the maximum possible reading indicating that the stock market bullishness is off the charts.

Bulls need UTIL above 725.27, now at 723.59, to prove there is more upside juice ahead for the stock market. The bears need to push the SPX under 2529 and Keybot will likely flip short. The downside move in stocks will be confirmed if either JJC moves under 33.39, now at 33.58, and/or VIX moves above 10.76, now at 9.51.

So bulls need higher utilities and must prevent the SPX from dropping under 2529. The bears need to send the SPX under 2529 to flip the model short then push copper lower and volatility higher to prove that down is the direction ahead.

On the last trade, both the algo model and actual trading lose -0.7%. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +12.2% this year that is impressive and surprising. The algo program is up about +2% this year and actual trading up about +3%. Keybot exits SH and enters SPY. A 35-day timer expires tomorrow so Keybot will likely flip back to using 2x ETF's when the model flips short.

10/8/17; 7:00 PM EST =
10/6/17; 9:00 AM EST =

10/3/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long

10/2/17; 3:59 PM EST = +100; signal line is +85

10/2/17; 3:49 PM EST = +84; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains long

10/2/17; 10:20 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84

10/2/17; 10:06 AM EST = +84; signal line is +83

10/2/17; 9:48 AM EST = +100; signal line is +82

10/1/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +84; signal line is +82

9/29/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82

9/29/17; 9:33 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82; go long 2511; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +12.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.2%)

9/28/17; 10:28 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains short

9/28/17; 9:53 AM EST = +68; signal line is +82

9/28/17; 9:46 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains short

9/26/17; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +82

9/25/17; 12:42 PM EST = +68; signal line is +82

9/25/17; 12:06 PM EST = +54; signal line is +81

9/25/17; 10:54 AM EST = +68; signal line is +82; go short 2494; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +11.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.9%)

September Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-09 is Available from Amazon; Stock Market Record Highs; SPX 2519; INDU 22420; COMPQ 6498; NDX 6013; RUT 1494; NYA 12209; TRAN 9935; Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria; Puerto Rico Devastated; Mexico Earthquake; Bitcoin 5000+; North Korea Tests H-Bomb; London “Bucket Bomb” Terror Attack; Brent Oil Golden Cross; Apple Unveils iPhone 8 and X (10); German Chancellor Merkel Wins Reelection

The September Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-09 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and for individual stocks around the world. The world is awash in central banker liquidity so all asset classes continue floating ever higher.

September Cover Highlights;

STOCK MARKET RECORD HIGHS

SPX 2519, INDU 22420, COMPQ 6498, NDX 6013, RUT 1494, NYA 12209, TRAN 9935

HURRICANES HARVEY, IRMA, MARIA

PUERTO RICO DEVASTATED

MEXICO EARTHQUAKE

BITCOIN 5000+

NORTH KOREA TESTS H-BOMB

LONDON “BUCKET BOMB” TERROR ATTACK

BRENT OIL GOLDEN CROSS

APPLE UNVEILS IPHONE 8 AND X (10)

GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERKEL WINS REELECTION

The September chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs in all seven major indexes. Bitcoin prints above 5000 but retreats as China places more restrictions on cyber currencies. Brent oil prints a golden cross stock chart pattern indicating more new highs ahead although West Texas Intermediate Crude oil has not printed a golden cross as yet.

The daily Whitehouse drama continues with 16 key personnel changes occurring after only eight months an unprecedented revolving door. North Korea tests an H-Bomb that rocks the world. London is hit with another terrorist attack. German Chancellor Merkel is reelected.

Hurricanes slap the Caribbean Islands and United States. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are destroyed. Mexico is hit with a major earthquake.

Appple unveils the new iPhone 8 and X (pronounced 10) models. The iPhone X has a new fancy facial recognition system that failed during the stage presentation. Production problems are occurring with the iPhone X as the facial recognition sensors are not working as well as expected.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The October 2017-10 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 11/4/17.

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