STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side on Valentine's Day at SPX 2679. The benchmark S&P 500 Index and the Keybot algorithm model are flat on the year while the actual trading is up +2.2% after the first six weeks. Keybot remained short since December through the four weeks of obscene up and then two-week collapse in equities. Keybot exited TWM and entered SSO.

Use the SOX 1301.80 bull-bear line in the sand as the rudder currently steering the stock market directional ship. SOX is printing at 1305 creating stock market lift.

2/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =

2/16/18; 10:00 AM EST =

2/16/18; 9:00 AM EST =

2/15/18; 11:17 AM EST = +54; signal line is +3

2/15/18; 10:49 AM EST = +38; signal line is +2

2/14/18; 2:06 PM EST = +54; signal line is 0

2/14/18; 11:46 AM EST = +38; signal line is -1

2/14/18; 11:43 AM EST = +24; signal line is -2; go long 2679; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +0.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2018 = -0.2%)(Actual results this trade = +2.2%; Actual results for 2018 = +2.2%)

2/14/18; 11:33 AM EST = +8; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short

2/13/18; 12:11 PM EST = +8; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short

2/13/18; 10:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is -1

2/13/18; 10:11 AM EST = +8; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short

2/13/18; 9:41 AM EST = -8; signal line is +4

2/12/18; 2:46 PM EST = -24; signal line is +6

2/12/18; 11:51 AM EST = -8; signal line is +8

2/12/18; 10:13 AM EST = -24; signal line is +10

2/12/18; 9:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is +12

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +15

2/9/18; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is +17

2/9/18; 3:12 PM EST = -38; signal line is +20

2/9/18; 2:13 PM EST = -24; signal line is +23

2/9/18; 11:50 AM EST = -38; signal line is +26

2/9/18; 9:40 AM EST = -24; signal line is +29

2/8/18; 3:34 PM EST = -10; signal line is +32

2/7/18; 3:52 PM EST = +6; signal line is +34

2/7/18; 3:26 PM EST = +22; signal line is +35

2/7/18; 1:55 PM EST = +6; signal line is +36

2/7/18; 1:46 PM EST = +22; signal line is +38

2/7/18; 12:18 PM EST = +6; signal line is +39

2/7/18; 11:07 AM EST = +22; signal line is +41

2/7/18; 10:49 AM EST = +6; signal line is +42

2/7/18; 10:19 AM EST = +22; signal line is +44

2/7/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +45

2/6/18; 9:49 AM EST = +22; signal line is +48

2/6/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +49

2/5/18; 3:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +51

2/5/18; 11:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +52

2/5/18; 10:11 AM EST = +54; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short

2/5/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +53

2/4/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remans short

2/2/18; 11:44 AM EST = +54; signal line is +55

2/2/18; 11:24 AM EST = +38; signal line is +55

2/2/18; 11:13 AM EST = +54; signal line is +56

2/2/18; 10:40 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56

2/2/18; 10:25 AM EST = +54; signal line is +57

2/2/18; 10:13 AM EST = +38; signal line is +57

2/2/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +58

2/2/18; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +58

1/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +54; signal line is +59

1/30/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +60

1/28/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +60

1/24/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +61

1/23/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +61

1/21/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +62

1/19/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +63

1/18/18; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +64

1/14/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65

1/12/18; 2:08 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65

1/12/18; 12:34 PM EST = +68; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains short

1/12/18; 11:29 AM EST = +54; signal line is +67

1/12/18; 11:18 AM EST = +68; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short

1/12/18; 11:11 AM EST = +54; signal line is +68

1/12/18; 11:02 AM EST = +68; signal line is +69

1/12/18; 10:50 AM EST = +54; signal line is +70

1/10/18; 12:49 PM EST = +68; signal line is +71

1/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +72

1/7/18; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +74

1/5/18; 9:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +74

1/2/18; 10:05 AM EST = +68; signal line is +75

1/2/18; 9:41 AM EST = +54; signal line is +76

1/2/18; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +77

1/1/18; Begin 2018 Data Set = +54; signal line is +78; go short 2674; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2018 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2018 = 0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 39 points below the signal line. The erratic market turmoil will likely continue. The bears need NYA under 12241 and/or SPX under 2532 and stocks will drop lower. If both fail, the stock market will be in freefall.

The bulls need stronger commodities and must push the GTX above 2505 (now at 2475). Bulls also need to push retail stocks higher by sending RTH above 94.55 (now at 93.64). These parameters will stabilize the stock market and give juice to a relief rally.

Bears will win with a weaker NYSE Composite Index while bulls will win with higher commodities and retail stocks. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week both on Friday morning.

2/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =

2/16/18; 10:00 AM EST =

2/16/18; 9:00 AM EST =

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +15

2/9/18; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is +17

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Commodities, GTX, failed after the Friday opening bell creating sogginess in stocks all day long. Keybot was active on Friday printing five numbers. The NYA kept dancing between the bull and bear camps which sent the stock market wildly higher, and wildly lower, with each move. Commodities, GTX, end the week in the bear camp. The NYA is in the bull camp. The bears remain in control with the algo number 41 points below the signal line.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =

2/9/18; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is +17

2/9/18; 3:12 PM EST = -38; signal line is +20

2/9/18; 2:13 PM EST = -24; signal line is +23

2/9/18; 11:50 AM EST = -38; signal line is +26

2/9/18; 9:40 AM EST = -24; signal line is +29

2/8/18; 3:34 PM EST = -10; signal line is +32

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bulls took a beating yesterday. That will leave a mark. The bears remain in control with the algo number turning negative 42 points below the signal line.

Stocks will stabilize if retail stocks rally. Bulls need RTH above 94.50. Bulls will receive further upside strength if the banks, chips and copper can rally.

The bears will continue the downside crash in stocks with either GTX under 2510, NYA under 12240 and/or SPX under 2527. If these three parameters turn bearish, stocks will be in a full-fledged major crash event. Any one of them failing will create another strong leg lower in the stock market.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =

2/8/18; 3:34 PM EST = -10; signal line is +32

2/7/18; 3:52 PM EST = +6; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market drama continues. Keybot was very active in the Wednesday session printing nine numbers. The bears are in control with the algo number 28 points below the signal line.

Bears need lower commodities to create more market carnage. Bulls need higher copper, banks and semiconductors to move the stock market higher.

Bears need GTX under 2512 now at 2548. Bulls need JJC under 36.12 now at 35.19, and/or XLF under 28.61 now at 28.41 and/or SOX under 1310 now at 1272.

If any one of the three JJC, XLF or SOX parameters turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play. If 2 of the 3 flip bullish, and the SPX moves above 2728, Keybot will likely flip long. The key to the market direction today will be commodities, copper and banks.

The US dollar index moves higher overnight creating weakness in commodities. Copper futures are marginally lower. S&P futures are down -9, although trading all over the map, as this is typed 3 hours before the opening bell for the regular session. The beat goes on.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =

2/7/18; 3:52 PM EST = +6; signal line is +34

2/7/18; 3:26 PM EST = +22; signal line is +35

2/7/18; 1:55 PM EST = +6; signal line is +36

2/7/18; 1:46 PM EST = +22; signal line is +38

2/7/18; 12:18 PM EST = +6; signal line is +39

2/7/18; 11:07 AM EST = +22; signal line is +41

2/7/18; 10:49 AM EST = +6; signal line is +42

2/7/18; 10:19 AM EST = +22; signal line is +44

2/7/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +45

2/6/18; 9:49 AM EST = +22; signal line is +48

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short since December. The algo is focused on copper, chips and banks as the key parameters most impacting market direction currently.

Bears need JJC under 36.17 (now at 36.51) to create another downleg in the stock market. Copper futures are down -0.3% as this is typed but bears are going to need a -0.9% drop before they cheer.

Bulls need either SOX above 1311.50 (now at 1302) and/or XLF above 28.60 (now at 28.39) to begin a healthy relief rally. Either parameter will stop the stock market downside, stabilize markets and begin to create an upward bias. Bulls, however, need both parameters to turn bullish if they want Keybot to flip long. If one parameter flips long, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play. If both the SOX and XLF turn bullish, and the SPX rallies above 2701, Keybot will likely flip long.

Thus, bears are rooting for lower copper while the bulls are cheering for stronger semiconductors and banks. Monitor activity in these parameters since it will tell you the stock market direction ahead. Copper futures are down -0.44% five hours before the opening bell for the US trading session.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =

2/6/18; 9:49 AM EST = +22; signal line is +48

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Isn't it amazing after five weeks we finally see what the Keybot algorithm has seen all along? The algo would not flip long this year as the upside joy in stocks occurred through January. It was the strangest behavior of the Keybot the Quant algorithm in its over one-decade existence.

It all finally makes sense. The robot was smart enough to know it did not want to go long since there was a huge risk to the downside, which ended up occurring. It is amazing. All that Keybot sees is 1's and 0's. Robots are smarter than humans. Keybot did not gain anything during the January rally but it did not lose anything either on the crash. The algo is designed to seek the smoothest path possible through the trading year.

As mentioned in nearly every message over the last month, these are not your grandfather's markets. Something special was occurring as pointed out with the volatility since December. Now we see what the story was after the historic flash crash yesterday afternoon and the ongoing sickness. The SPX is negative on the year.

Well, what happens next? You saw a day ago that copper rallied but what hurt the stock market was the semiconductors that failed at the opening bell. Then the banks failed and the retail stocks are the latest to fail. The bears remain in control with the algo number 26 points below the signal line.

Looking at the algo, the key parameters most impacting stock market direction currently are retail stocks and copper both in the bull camp. Bears need RTH under 94.68 to create more stock market downside. Bears also need JJC below 36.17 to create more market carnage. If both fail that will be a bloodbath lower for equities.

The bulls need to keep RTH above 94.67 and JJC above 36.17. This will stabilize the stock market. Then, if the banks and semiconductors move higher, the stock market will recover with a relief rally.

On Tuesday, today, going into munchtime on the US East Coast, RTH is at 94.79. Bears need another 12 pennies lower to create a stock market downleg. JJC is at 36.34 so bears need another 17 cents lower for copper. The beat goes on.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =

2/6/18; 9:49 AM EST = +22; signal line is +48

2/6/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +49

2/5/18; 3:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +51

2/5/18; 11:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +52

2/5/18; 10:11 AM EST = +54; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short

2/5/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +53

2/4/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remans short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side. The market goofiness continues. The algo number and signal line are each at +54. It is a bull-bear, knock-down, drag-out battle right now and only a coin flip will decide the winner ahead. Looking at the algorithm's inner metrics, the bias remains on the bear side with the numbers tied.

The Dow Jones Industrials dumped 666 points on Friday and 1,100 points during the week. The SPX is 110 handles off the high but remains comfortably positive on the year. As stated during all for January, this is special and rare market behavior occurring.

Note how JJC came down Friday afternoon to tease the 36.17 line in the sand that Keybot called out ahead of time but the week ended with JJC at 36.21 in the bull camp by 4 pennies creating broad stock market buoyancy. The Keybot the Quant algo continues tracking copper as the key parameter most impacting broad stock market direction currently.

It is very simple. Bears need weaker copper and must push JJC below 36.17, if so, the stock market is going to take another strong leg lower. If the bulls can hold the line at 36.17 and force JJC higher during Monday trading, the stock market will level off and begin a relief rally higher regardless of the way the day begins. JJC 36.17 is what you need to watch to determine stock market direction.

As copper goes, so goes the markets. Copper futures are trading overnight so that will likely tell you the way the US stock market will trade during the regular session.

Keybot is also tracking semiconductors. The chips are bullish right now creating upside in the stock market. The market bears need to push SOX under 1311.33 (now at 1318) to create a strong leg lower in stocks.

Thus, if JJC and SOX remain bullish, bears got nothing and the stock market will recover. If either JJC or SOX turns bearish, the stock market will noticeably drop. If both the JJC and SOX turn bearish, stocks will be in freefall again like Friday's price action.

Another thing to watch for is the bulls pulling a sneaky one where they will jog copper above and below the JJC 36.17 line in the sand a time or three like the action on Friday morning. This price action serves to place the algorithm in a position to go long. Thus, the bears need JJC 36.17 to fail, and fail decisively and keep on dropping. If you see the JJC playing games moving a touch below 36.17 for a few minutes or so, then back above for a half-hour or so, then back below again, then back above. This behavior will tell you that the bulls are likely going to rally copper higher and it will take the broad stock market higher.

Watch JJC 36.17 as the main rudder currently steering the stock market ship. Also SOX 1311-1312. Also the price behavior in and around JJC 36.17 if this key level fails. These parameters tell you everything you need to know about stock market direction on Monday. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The beat goes on.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =

2/4/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short

2/2/18; 11:44 AM EST = +54; signal line is +55

January Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-01 is Available from Amazon; US Stock Indexes Print All-Time Highs; Global Stock Indexes at Record and Multi-Year Highs; Dow 26,600+; SPX 2,870+; Utilities Crash -13%; Treasury Secretary Mnuchin “Weak Dollar Policy” Mistake; Government Shutdown; Davos; Protectionism; Bank Earnings; Greenspan Says Stocks and Bonds are Bubbles; BOJ Announces Unlimited Bond-Buying; Global Yields Climb Higher

The January Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-01 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and individual stocks around the world. The S&P 500 crosses above 2,800 for the first time in history running to the all-time high at 2,872.80. The Dow Jones Industrials cross above 26,000 for the first time in history printing the all-time high at 26,614.85. Investors were joyously celebrating until the week of 1/28/18 where stocks drift lower and on Friday, 2/2/18, the Dow plummets 666 points.

January Cover Highlights;

US STOCK INDEXES PRINT ALL-TIME HIGHS

GLOBAL STOCK INDEXES AT RECORD AND MULTI-YEAR HIGHS

DOW 26,600+

S&P 500 2,870+

UTILITIES CRASH -13%

TREASURY SECRETARY MNUCHIN “WEAK DOLLAR POLICY” MISTAKE

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

DAVOS

PROTECTIONISM

BANK EARNINGS

GREENSPAN SAYS STOCKS AND BONDS ARE BUBBLES

BOJ ANNOUNCES UNLIMITED BOND-BUYING

GLOVAL YIELDS CLIMB HIGHER

The January chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs in all seven major US indexes (SPX, INDU or DJI, COMPQ, NDX, RUT, NYA, TRAN or DJT) and the SOX. The Dow overtakes 26,600 and the S&P 500 prints above 2,870 (last week’s selloff shaves 108 points off the high with the SPX now at 2762).

The World Economic Forum took place in Davos, Switzerland, where Treasury Secretary Mnuchin inserted his shiny wingtip into his mouth by professing a weak dollar policy. Heads turned. Jaws dropped. A strong dollar policy is supposed to be the standard talking point of US officials (even though behind the scenes a weak dollar is desired). Mnuchin backtracked but the currency and trade wars and protectionism shots across bow have started.

Yields climb (the 10-year prints 2.854% not seen in four years) as February begins creating angst in the stock markets especially on Friday 2/2/18. The 2018-01 publication runs through Saturday 2/3/18 so the Jobs Report and the big selloff in stocks is recorded in detail as it played out in real-time.

President Trump continues boasting about the new record highs in stocks taking full credit and responsibility for the upside joy during January sans the last few days. Oil prices remain elevated with both West Texas and Brent printing at 2-1/2 year highs.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can relive the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

The 2017-11 publication chronicles the 400-point intraday drop in the Dow on Friday, 12/1/17, when it was thought that former Trump adviser Michael Flynn had implicated the president in nefarious deeds. This news story turned out to be not true although Jared Kushner and Donny Trump, Jr, may be in trouble.

The 2017-12 issue highlights all the wild action in the cybercurrency arena with bitcoin, ripple, etherum, litecoin and others. You can relive the excitement of the SPX 2,700 and Dow 25,000 levels in the 2017-12 publication as well as reference all the key statistics for the year for the world’s stock indexes, bonds, commodities, currencies and important individual stocks. Warren Buffett stands up and performs a jig of joy as his Berkshire Hathaway stock crosses above 300,000 for the first time ever in December 2017.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The February 2018-02 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 3/3/18.

The popular “Keystone the Scribe” daily market chronology blog, “The Keystone Speculator” stock charts and technical analysis blog and the “Keybot the Quant’ algorithm blog are visited by over one-half million people around the world each month. The free original content on these sites is not available anywhere else on the internet and content is only posted in proportion to the support received. Thank you.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the odd market action continues. Stocks selloff this week but the algorithm remained quiet. Then today, Keybot starts printing numbers like a madman 8 numbers today including the 2 pre-scheduled numbers. Note there is only 1 point difference between the algo number and signal line so the stock market is a coin flip.

The  market bulls are jogging copper back and forth across its bull-bear line in the sand at JJC 36.17 trying to get the algo to flip long. Keybot the Quant has oddly remained short for all of January as the stock market rallied. This is extremely rare behavior. Stocks retreat off the highs this week but remain elevated on the year.

As stocks sell off, copper does not remain negative which means the bulls may win the battle. Bears must push JJC under 36.17 to prove they can take the stock market lower. JJC is at 36.32 so the bears need another 17 pennies. If copper remains bullish the bulls are going to likely rally the stock market. Watch JJC 36.17 closely. The strange market action continues.

2/4/18; 7:00 PM EST =

2/2/18; 11:44 AM EST = +54; signal line is +55

2/2/18; 11:24 AM EST = +38; signal line is +55

2/2/18; 11:13 AM EST = +54; signal line is +56

2/2/18; 10:40 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56

2/2/18; 10:25 AM EST = +54; signal line is +57

2/2/18; 10:13 AM EST = +38; signal line is +57

2/2/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +58

2/2/18; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +58

1/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +54; signal line is +59

1/30/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +60