STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short despite the upside market joy. The pre-scheduled number prints a few minutes ago and the bulls and bears are battling with only 2 points separating the algo number from the signal line.

Lower volatility is helping the bulls create the rally in stocks this morning. Utilities are sluggish and help maintain the bears in a dominant position.

Watch VIX 16.21 today as a bull-bear line in the sand. Equities will likely remain buoyant into the weekend if VIX remains below 16.21 and price is now at 15.29. Bears will drive stocks into the ground later today if the VIX moves above 16.21. The UTIL 712.76 level is very important for the days ahead. The beat goes on.

7/1/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/18; 10:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +24

6/29/18; 4:50 AM EST = +22; signal line is +25

6/28/18; 3:30 PM EST = +8; signal line is +25

6/28/18; 1:02 PM EST = +24; signal line is +25

6/28/18; 12:50 PM EST = +8; signal line is +25

6/28/18; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +27

6/27/18; 3:20 PM EST = +8; signal line is +28

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market turmoil continues. Utilities and volatility are running the show. Both UTIL and VIX are bearish creating market weakness. The bears are cruising.

Bulls need either UTIL above 712.76 (now at 712.51) and/or VIX below 16.23 (now at 17.91). Either one will immediately stop the stock market selling and provide the start of a relief rally. For Thursday, if one of the two parameters turns bullish, and it jogs above and below the level listed a couple-three times, and the SPX moves above 2746, Keybot will likely flip long. If both parameters turn bullish and the SPX moves above 2746, Keybot will likely flip long. If either parameter turns bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play. Equities would need to rally strongly on Thursday to move the S&P 500 above 2746 (now at 2700).

7/1/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/18; 10:00 AM EST =

6/27/18; 3:20 PM EST = +8; signal line is +28

6/27/18; 3:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +29

6/27/18; 2:43 PM EST = +8; signal line is +30

6/27/18; 2:33 PM EST = +24; signal line is +32
6/27/18; 12:45 PM EST = +8; signal line is +33

6/26/18; 11:42 AM EST = +22; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and prints two numbers in the Tuesday session. The algo number is 13 points below the signal line so caution is warranted. Bears need higher volatility and lower commodities. Bulls need higher utilities and semiconductors.

UTIL came up to kiss the 712.65 called out by Keybot ahead of time but could not overtake this level making for happy bears. It is astounding and amazing that the algorithm can call out the most important parameters and the price levels before they occur. If you are not impressed, you should be. Keybot is an amazing model.

In addition, late in the Tuesday session, stocks fell with volatility rising. The VIX came up within a couple pennies of the key 16.19 level (that Keybot called out ahead of time) before retreating unable to overtake this important level making for happy bulls.

In a nutshell, the bears need VIX above 16.19 pronto to guarantee further market selling. GTX falling under 2695 will also create stock market weakness.

The bulls need UTIL above 712.65 and/or SOX above 1364 to prove that the upside rally has legs. If one of the two parameters turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and Keybot will likely flip long if the SPX also moves above 2733. Volatility and utilities will tell the market story for hump day.

7/1/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/18; 10:00 AM EST =

6/26/18; 11:42 AM EST = +22; signal line is +35

6/26/18; 10:00 AM EST = +8; signal line is +37

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears came to play yesterday beginning the week with a bloodbath. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number minutes ago. The algo number is comfortably (for the bears) 29 points below the signal line. The chips (SOX) failed at the opening bell yesterday sending the stock market down the rabbit hole. Banks are down for 12 consecutive days a historic record.

The bears are cruising and would receive more downside fuel if GTX (commodities) drops below 2695. The bulls need UTIL above 712.65 and VIX below 16.18. If one of the two parameters turn bullish consider the caution flag out. If both parameters turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play.

GTX is at 2706, UTIL at 710 and VIX at 16.30 printing the LOD. Volatility will tell you a lot today. The VIX 16.18 bull-bear line in the sand is key; watch it like a hawk.The beat goes on. 

7/1/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/18; 10:00 AM EST =

6/26/18; 10:00 AM EST = +8; signal line is +37

6/25/18; 1:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +40

6/25/18; 1:23 PM EST = -6; signal line is +42

6/25/18; 10:08 AM EST = +8; signal line is +45

6/25/18; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +47

6/24/18; 7:00 PM EST = +38; signal line is +49

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side through the stock market choppiness. UTIL finishes last week above 692 which is a key metric for all of this week and a feather in the bull's cap but during the last couple minutes of trading on Friday, the NYA failed at the 12648 level a feather in the bear's cap.

There are lots of moving parts impacting market direction currently. To boil it down to something simple, bears need lower utes, chips and commodities while bulls need the NYA back above 12648. If the NYA turns bullish and the SPX moves above 2764, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

Stock market bears need UTIL under 692, SOX under 1370.63 and/or GTX under 2694. Any one of the parameters flipping bearish will create weakness in equities. Two parameters turning bearish and stocks will be sliding dramatically lower. If all three turn bearish, stocks may go into free fall. The SOX came down to tease the 1370-1371 key level identified by Keybot both on Thursday and Friday but did not fail. Pay attention to the semiconductors because if SOX fails below 1370-1371, stocks will likely collape down the rabbit hole. Bulls will be very happy if the SOX does not fail.

Keybot prints pre-scheduled numbers this week on Tuesday and Friday. The EOM is Friday. Bears are cheering for SOX to fail at 1370-1371 which will create market mayhem. Bulls are cheering for the NYA to move above 12648 which will paint a rosy picture for the stock market ahead.

7/1/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/29/18; 10:00 AM EST =

6/26/18; 10:00 AM EST =

6/24/18; 7:00 PM EST = +38; signal line is +49

6/22/18; 3:59 PM EST = +38; signal line is +50

6/22/18; 10:57 AM EST = +52; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains short

6/22/18; 10:43 AM EST = +36; signal line is +51
6/22/18; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +53

6/21/18; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +53
6/20/18; 2:20 PM EST = +38; signal line is +54

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short and the algo is very active printing six numbers in the hump day session. The Nazzy indexes and Russell 2000 print new all-time record highs. Ditto FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL and QQQ. The future appears so bright that you have wear shades.

Alas, Keybot remains bearish and the algo number never printed above the signal line on Wednesday. Markets are exhibiting very odd action.

The bulls need either XLF above 27.71 and/or GTX above 2690. If XLF turns bullish and the SPX is printing above 2775, Keybot may flip long. Another possible outcome is that GTX turns bullish but it jogs above and below that key 2690 level a couple of times. If you see this behavior, the algo is likely setting up to flip long.

The stock market bears simply need to keep the banks and commodities bearish. At the same time, bears need to push NYA under 12647 which will flush the stock market lower.

UTIL 691.82 is key for all of next week. UTIL is at 688. Watch this into the Friday close. If UTIL ends the week sub 692, stocks will likely be weak out of the gate on Monday. If UTIL finishes this week above 692, that indicates the bulls will rally the stock market next week.

For Thursday, the bulls need XLF above 27.71 and GTX above 2690 while bears need NYA under 12647. If either XLF or GTX turns bullish, consider the imminent turn notation to be in the title line. The beat goes on.

6/24/18; 7:00 PM EST =

6/20/18; 2:20 PM EST = +38; signal line is +54

6/20/18; 2:04 PM EST = +52; signal line is +55

6/20/18; 11:24 AM EST = +38; signal line is +55

6/20/18; 10:28 AM EST = +24; signal line is +56

6/20/18; 10:01 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56
6/20/18; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56

6/19/18; 10:48 AM EST = +24; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is on the short side since Monday morning from SPX 2758. The drop in banks, commodities and copper create the weakness. It is very surprising that the algo number is a large 32 points below the signal line but the stock market remains buoyant. S&P futures are up +10 as this message is typed about three hours before the opening bell for hump day.

On the last trade, the algo program gains a percent but the actual trading only logs a half-percent gain. Keybot exits SPY and enters SDS. The 35-day timer expires on maintaining single ETF's due to whipsaw market behavior so Keybot is back in the 2x ETF's starting with SDS on the short side. The S&P 500 benchmark is up +3.1% on the year. The algorithm program is up +2.2% on the year. The actual trading implemented by Keybot is up +6.5% this year.

Bears need weaker chips and utilities and higher volatility. Bulls need higher banks, commodities, NYA Index and copper.

If the algo's current status is boiled down to something simple, bears will win with the status quo (again, it is surprising to not see stocks sell off currently) and will create more downside trouble in the stock market if SOX falls below 1374 (now at 1392).

The bulls can stall the downside in stocks if NYA moves above 12647 (now at 12639), GTX above 2689 (now at 2677) and/or XLF above 27.71 (now at 27.35). Any one of these will help the bulls stage a recovery rally and the caution flag will be warranted but overall, at least two of the parameters need to turn bullish to try and create a sustainable rally. The imminent turn notation will be in the title line if two parameters turn bullish.

If all three parameters flip bullish, Keybot will likely flip back into the bull camp. The NYA 12647 bull-bear line in the sand dictates the direction of the stock market in the intermediate term (weeks and months ahead). The beat goes on.

6/24/18; 7:00 PM EST =

6/19/18; 10:48 AM EST = +24; signal line is +56

6/19/18; 10:40 AM EST = +8; signal line is +57

6/19/18; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +58

6/19/18; 9:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +58

6/18/18; 12:48 PM EST = +52; signal line is +57

6/18/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +57; go short 2758; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +3.1%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.5%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +6.5%)

6/17/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long

6/15/18; 10:59 AM EST = +54; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long

6/15/18; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +57

6/14/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +57

6/13/18; 3:54 PM EST = +68; signal line is +58

6/13/18; 3:09 PM EST = +84; signal line is +58

6/13/18; 2:07 PM EST = +68; signal line is +57

6/13/18; 12:56 PM EST = +84; signal line is +57

6/13/18; 11:47 AM EST = +68; signal line is +55
6/13/18; 9:42 AM EST = +84; signal line is +55
6/10/18; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +55
6/6/18; 11:14 AM EST = +68; signal line is +55

6/4/18; 10:14 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
6/4/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +57
6/3/18; 7:00 PM EST = +52; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long

6/1/18; 2:11 PM EST = +52; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long

6/1/18; 12:17 PM EST = +68; signal line is +57; go long 2734; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +2.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +6.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keyot the Quant remains long but wants to flip short. The algo did not print any numbers on Tuesday. The SPX came down to 2740 as the model called out ahead of time and price bounced. The bears could not create failure. Hump day is set up the same. The bears need SPX under the 2738-2740 area and Keybot will likely flip short The S&P 500 begins at 2749.

The bulls need XLF above 27.82 but the banks are subdued and not yet moving higher to provide strength to the stock market. If XLF moves above 27.82, it would be a wild stock market orgy party with traders throwing confetti and drinking liquor. If banks turn bullish, the major stock indexes will be catapulting strongly higher to new all-time record highs.

Bears need to move the SPX below 2740 pronto and then move GTX under 2688 and NYA under 12607 to create additional downside bear fuel and verify the down direction.

6/10/18; 7:00 PM EST =

6/4/18; 10:14 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but champing at the bit to flip back to the short side. The algo number is 4 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move to the bear camp. If the SPX drops below 2741, Keybot will likely flip short. The bears want a slow move lower on Tuesday; a gap-down move at the opening bell would not help the bear cause.

The bulls simply need stronger banks to move stocks higher. Bulls need XLF above 27.82 and the stock market will catapult higher to Glory. Stronger utes would also create stock market upside. Bulls need UTIL above 685.76.

Bears will seize the day if they can push the SPX under 2740-2741 which will be in concert with banks, utilities, copper, commodities and the NYA index all moving lower. The beat goes on.

6/10/18; 7:00 PM EST =

6/4/18; 10:14 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at 2734 on Friday after the jobs report but note that the algorithm wants to flip back to the short side right now with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. The model likely wants to see the SPX under 2718 to flip short but the S&P 500 remains well above at 2745.

The market choppiness continues. Watch the banks. The stock market will catapult higher if the XLF moves above 27.82 (now at 27.61). Stocks will stall and likely leak lower if the XLF 27.82 cannot be attained.

Bulls will also benefit from UTIL moving above 685.76 (now at 680). Watch the utes as the week progresses because utilities leaking lower will forecast sickness in the stock market next week especially if UTIL drops below 665.85.

Keybot remains in the single ETF's exiting SH and entering SPY on the last trade. The benchmark SPX is up a coupe percent this year. The Keybot algo is up +1.3% this year. The actual trading is up +6%. The beat goes on. Use XLF 27.82, UTIL 685.76 and JJCTF 34.73 as your guide forward this week. The beat goes on.

6/10/18; 7:00 PM EST =

6/4/18; 10:14 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long

6/4/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +57
6/3/18; 7:00 PM EST = +52; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long

6/1/18; 2:11 PM EST = +52; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long

6/1/18; 12:17 PM EST = +68; signal line is +57; go long 2734; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +2.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +6.0%)

6/1/18; 12:06 PM EST = +68; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains short

6/1/18; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +57

6/1/18; 9:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +57

5/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +38; signal line is +58

5/30/18; 9:48 AM EST = +38; signal line is +58

5/30/18; 11:38 AM EST = +52; signal line is +59

5/29/18; 3:59 PM EST = +38; signal line is +60

5/29/18; 1:37 PM EST = +24; signal line is +61

5/29/18; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +64

5/29/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +65; go short 2702; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.1%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.4%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +7.2%)