STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and is unimpressed with this week's price action thus far. The algorithm only prints one number this week and that is the pre-scheduled number. Bulls remain in control of the stock market but the algo number is only 14 points above the signal line (things can change quickly).

The S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high at 3050.10 and new all-time closing high at 3046.77 on Wednesday, 10/30/19; the Federal Reserve rate decision and Chairman Powell press conference day. The central bankers are the market. 

Keybot appears to be tracking commodities as the most influential parameter impacting stock market direction. Bears need GTX below 2429 (now at 2448). If this occurs, the quant will likely be in position to go short. The bears would need to send the SPX below 3026 today to create true negativity.

Today is the last day of October, Halloween, EOM. October will be an up month for the stock market (SPX). Keybot prints pre-scheduled numbers this evening and tomorrow morning.

11/3/19; 7:00 PM EST =

11/1/19; 9:00 AM EST =

10/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/29/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +74

10/27/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +72

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls pump stocks to new all-time record highs. The SPX prints a new record high at 3044.08 and new all-time closing high at 3039.42 on 10/28/19. The bears are running for their lives creating short-covering fuel for the upside rally.

The algo did not print any numbers on Monday but will print a pre-scheduled number later this morning. The bulls are cruising. Bears need weakness in commodities and higher volatility. Markets may idle sideways until Fed Chairman Powell brings the tablets down from on high on Wednesday afternoon. The central bankers are the market.

10/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/29/19; 10:00 AM EST =

10/27/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +72

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in control with the algo number 16 points above the signal line. S&P futures are up +8 with the VIX at 13.00 about 90 minutes before the opening bell for the regular US Monday trading session.

Bulls have jammed banks and chips higher, and volatility lower, to pump the stock market higher. Copper and commodities join the bull camp creating further upside joy as the stock market is set to print a new all-time record high.

Bears obviously need all these parameters to turn negative. Bears need the NYA to drop below 12800 (now at 13146) to create market negativity.

Keybot prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week one tomorrow, the second on Thursday evening for the EOM and the third on Friday morning.

11/3/19; 7:00 PM EST =

11/1/19; 9:00 AM EST =

10/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

10/29/19; 10:00 AM EST =

10/27/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +72

10/25/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +70

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls party to new all-time highs. The S&P 500 prints a HOD Friday at 3027.39 teasing the all-time record high at 3027.98 from 7/26/19 (only 59 pennies away). The SPX ends the day at 3022.55 compared to the all-time record high close at 3025.86 on 7/26/19 (only about 3 bucks away but price was above the closing record high during the session). The bulls are singin' songs and carryin' on euphorically buying stocks without a care in the world.

The algorithm prints the pre-scheduled number on Friday but has idled quietly sideways since mid-week uninspired to move in either direction. Banks and chips catapult the stock indexes to the new record highs. A steeper yield curve creates banker joy. The SOX prints another record high. Happy US-China trade chatter and the never-ending central banker money-printing sends stocks to the euphoric highs.

It is interesting that the past record highs in the SPX came with the quant at or near +100 but this time around it is at +88 which would be viewed as a long-term negative divergence. For now, the bulls are on easy street. The Fed jammed the VIX down to a 12-handle to create stock market joy. Investors are singing, "Happy Days Are Here Again."

The caution flag remains out. Despite the upside joy, the algo number is only 18 points above the signal line so the stock market direction could change quickly. The week ahead is jam-packed with market moving events; Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, the Fed decision and GDP data Wednesday, the PCE inflation data and EOM on Thursday, Halloween, and Jobs and ISM on Friday.

10/27/19; 7:00 PM EST =

10/25/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +70

10/23/19; 10:33 AM EST = +88; signal line is +67

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market drama continues. The algo did not print any numbers on Monday, but prints two yesterday and one today. The bulls are singing happy songs while buying stocks long and strong. The algo number is 21 points above the signal line so the bulls are cruising. The SPX sits at 3000 as this message is typed on hump day before munch time.

Commodities just gapped higher with GTX above the important 2423 bull-bear line in the sand. Bears must reverse this joy. Bears also need weaker copper and must try to push CPER below 16.42 (for copper futures this is analogous to the current price of 2.63 falling below 2.62). Copper floats higher as Chile falls into chaos and anarchy which hurts copper production and supply.

Weaker chips and higher volatility will also create stock market angst. Bears need VIX above 15.70 or they got nothing. The bulls are feeling pretty good about themselves puffing their chests out as stocks float higher. The SPX is at 3001 and climbing higher.

10/27/19; 7:00 PM EST =

10/25/19; 10:00 AM EST =

10/23/19; 10:33 AM EST = +88; signal line is +67

10/22/19; 11:46 AM EST = +74; signal line is +64

10/22/19; 10:52 AM EST = +88; signal line is +61

10/20/19; 7:00 PM EST = +74; signal line is +59

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market drama continues. The bulls goosed copper on Friday which maintains the overall market buoyancy. Commodities also jumped into the bull camp but then jumped back out. Commodities, in general, remain bearish while copper remains bullish.

Bulls need GTX above 2423 (now at 2417) to guarantee a higher stock market and 3000-plus numbers for the S&P 500. Bears need CPER below 16.38 (now at 16.53) which would be a -0.9% drop. Copper futures are up +0.9% as this is typed 5 hours before the opening bell for the regular US Monday trading session so the bulls are gathering strength and making it harder on the bears. Thus, S&P futures are up +7. VIX 14.24. Bears need VIX above 15.80 or they got nothing.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday. The caution flag remains out. For the Monday session, bears need weaker copper and the SPX to drop below 2976 to stop the bullish strength. The SPX begins the week at 2986.

10/27/19; 7:00 PM EST =

10/25/19; 10:00 AM EST =

10/20/19; 7:00 PM EST = +74; signal line is +59

10/18/19; 10:32 AM EST = +74; signal line is +56

10/18/19; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +54

10/17/19; 9:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +50

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market meanders sideways sticking its head above SPX 3000 now and then. The status is quo. Housing Starts and Permits are disappointing. Analysts sip on Fed Kool-Aid calling the weak data a temporary bump in the road and say the numbers are great only coming down from super great levels.

The quant is idling along the last couple days not printing any numbers except for the pre-scheduled number this morning. The bulls are in charge but the algo number is only 8 points above the signal line.

Bears need a weaker NYA index and higher volatility to take stocks lower. The VIX has a 13-handle so the bulls are winning in today's ongoing tape.

Bulls need stronger copper and commodities to take equities higher. Bulls need CPER above 16.39 and/or GTX above 2424.05, respectively, to create euphoric upside in stocks. Prices are teasing these levels right now so the bulls must put-up, or shut-up. Watch copper very closely going forward.

10/20/19; 7:00 PM EST =

10/17/19; 9:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +50

10/15/19; 11:55 AM EST = +58; signal line is +48

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo number is only 10 points above the signal line requiring caution ahead. Commodities and copper join the bear camp this week which creates stock market negativity. The banks and chips run higher creating market joy and of course the central banker jack boots remain on the throat of the VIX creating market buoyancy.

As copper goes, so goes the market. Bulls need CPER above 16.39 (now at 16.37). Copper futures are down -1.4%, tanking, so S&P futures are down -8 with the VIX at 14.13 about 5-1/2 hours  before the opening bell for the US trading session. Bulls also need GTX above 2421.80 (now at 2396) which will send the stock market higher.

Bears need to push the NYA index below 12775 (now at 13006) which will usher in stock market downside and likely set up Keybot to go short. If copper and commodities remain bearish, and the NYA bullish, status quo, stocks will chop sideways. The extremely important Housing Starts drop tomorrow morning. The beat goes on.

10/17/19; 9:00 AM EST =

10/15/19; 11:55 AM EST = +58; signal line is +48

10/15/19; 11:06 AM EST = +74; signal line is +45

10/15/19; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +42

10/14/19; 9:36 AM EST = +74; signal line is +40

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 34 points above the signal line. Volatility dropped yesterday so the bears had no chance to push the stock market lower. The VIX is down to 14.10 with S&P futures up +14 about 3-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the regular Tuesday trading session. Bears need the VIX above 15.85 or they got nothing.

Commodities fell apart in yesterday's tape. Bulls need GTX above 2421.80 (now at 2408) to prove that they can take the SPX towards and above 3K.

Stock market bears need weaker banks, copper and NYA index. Bears need XLF below 27.55, CPER below 16.37 and/or NYA below 12774, respectively. JPM earnings results are imminent which will directly move the XLF. Copper futures are down -0.4% but the bears likely need about a -0.8% drop before they can start growling. Any one of the three parameters turning bearish will send the stock market lower. If two of the parameters turn bearish, the imminent turn to the short side would be in play.

10/20/19; 7:00 PM EST =

10/17/19; 9:00 AM EST =

10/14/19; 9:36 AM EST = +74; signal line is +40

10/14/19; 9:20 AM EST = +88; signal line is +37
10/14/19; 5:26 AM EST = +74; signal line is +33

10/13/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +30

Note Added 7:04 AM EST: China changes the goal posts now wanting the tariffs to end before committing to the so-called trade deal. Copper futures -0.6%. VIX 14.22. S&P futures +12. JPM blows out on earnings. XLF jumps 0.6% to 27.86 in the pre-market. Futures dropped on the China news but popped on the happy bank news.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new trading week is set to begin. The bulls are in control with the algo number 58 points above the signal line. These, however, are special and epic times occurring in markets.

There are five parameters in the algorithm that are sitting on their bull-bear lines in the sand. All are a hair in the bull camp, hence, the stock market rallies on Friday. Volatility is the most important parameter currently dictating market direction. VIX is at 15.58 creating upward movement in equities. Bears need the VIX above 16.03 which would immediately stop the stock market rally.

Commodities, copper, the banks and the NYA index are all dancing on a knife-edge as Soybean Donny tweets about a great ag deal with China that will take a month or more to put to paper. The movement in these parameters are having the greatest influence on stock market direction. The bulls are cruising, for now, but be aware that the markets can turn on a dime considering that so many algorithm parameters are sitting on their bull-bear lines in the sand.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Thursday morning.

10/20/19; 7:00 PM EST =

10/17/19; 9:00 AM EST =

10/13/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +30

10/11/19; 1:46 PM EST = +88; signal line is +27

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls pump the stock market higher.

Soybean Donny and Dictator Xi agree that China will buy more ag products and the US will not impose further sanctions so the stock market rocket launches higher. It is revealed Friday afternoon, however, that there is no written agreement only an understanding that the so-called US-China trade deal will be put on paper over the coming days and weeks. The Dow Jones Industrials were up 5 hundo but gave back 2 hundo into the close.

The bulls are cruising with the algo number 61 big points above the signal line.

10/13/19; 7:00 PM EST =

10/11/19; 1:46 PM EST = +88; signal line is +27

10/11/19; 12:40 PM EST = +74; signal line is +24

10/11/19; 11:57 AM EST = +60; signal line is +23

10/11/19; 11:53 AM EST = +74; signal line is +22

10/11/19; 11:25 AM EST = +88; signal line is +20

10/11/19; 10:58 AM EST = +74; signal line is +18

10/11/19; 10:46 AM EST = +60; signal line is +16

10/11/19; 10:08 AM EST = +74; signal line is +14
10/11/19; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +11
10/11/19; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +9

10/10/19; 2:06 PM EST = +26; signal line is +6

10/10/19; 11:21 AM EST = +42; signal line is +5
10/10/19; 9:57 AM EST = +26; signal line is +4
10/9/19; 3:33 PM EST = +12; signal line is +3; go long 2928; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +2.1%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +13.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.5%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +27.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday afternoon at SPX 2928. The bulls pumped chips and retail stocks higher to turn Keybot bullish. The bulls are in charge but the algo number is only 9 points above the signal line. Considering the ebb and flow of markets due to non-stop news bites on trade and from the central banks, the choppiness will likely continue. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw today.

The stock market bears need RTH below 112.80 and SOX below 1536. Either parameter turning bearish immediately stops the upside in equities and places the algo in position to whipsaw short. The SPX then would likely have to drop below 2907 to go short. The S&P 500 begins the Thursday session at 2919 and the nutso headlines keep hitting the tape in the pre-market bouncing futures up and down like a ping-pong ball.

The bulls need to keep retail stocks and semiconductors bullish while pulling the banks and NYA index higher and volatility lower. Bulls need XLF above 27.51, NYA above 12742 and VIX below 16.12. The degree of upside in the stock market is directly proportional to these three parameters if they turn bullish and how many of the three turn bullish. The five parameters above tell you everything about stock market direction for the next week.

On the last trade, that ran for 3 weeks, the Keybot computer program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains +3.5%. The benchmark SPX is up about +17% this year with the actual trading generated by the Keybot the Quant algorithm up almost +28%. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's. The fun continues.

10/13/19; 7:00 PM EST =

10/11/19; 10:00 AM EST =

10/9/19; 3:33 PM EST = +12; signal line is +3; go long 2928; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +2.1%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +13.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.5%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +27.7%)

10/9/19; 11:37 AM EST = +12; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short

10/9/19; 11:13 AM EST = -4; signal line is +3

10/9/19; 10:06 AM EST = +12; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short

10/9/19; 9:58 AM EST = -4; signal line is +7

10/9/19; 9:46 AM EST = +12; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
10/9/19; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +9

10/8/19; 3:03 PM EST = -20; signal line is +11
10/8/19; 2:36 PM EST = -4; signal line is +14

10/8/19; 2:07 PM EST = -20; signal line is +16

10/8/19; 1:31 PM EST = -4; signal line is +19

10/8/19; 1:03 PM EST = -20; signal line is +21

10/8/19; 12:51 PM EST = -4; signal line is +23

10/8/19; 9:49 AM EST = -20; signal line is +25

10/8/19; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +28
10/7/19; 2:10 PM EST = +26; signal line is +30
10/7/19; 1:52 PM EST = +42; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
10/6/19; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +32

10/4/19; 11:01 AM EST = +26; signal line is +33

10/4/19; 10:31 AM EST = +10; signal line is +34

10/4/19; 10:07 AM EST = +26; signal line is +36

10/4/19; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +37

10/4/19; 9:00 AM EST = -4; signal line is +39

10/3/19; 11:14 AM EST = -4; signal line is +41

10/2/19; 10:37 AM EST = -20; signal line is +43

10/2/19; 10:34 AM EST = -4; signal line is +46

10/2/19; 10:13 AM EST = +12; signal line is +48

10/2/19; 9:56 AM EST = -4; signal line is +49
10/2/19; 9:41 AM EST = +12; signal line is +51
10/1/19; 12:23 PM EST = +26; signal line is +52

10/1/19; 10:05 AM EST = +42; signal line is +54

10/1/19; 9:51 AM EST = +56; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains short

9/30/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +42; signal line is +55

9/29/19; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +55

9/27/19; 12:48 PM EST = +42; signal line is +56

9/27/19; 11:43 AM EST = +56; signal line is +57

9/27/19; 10:46 AM EST = +70; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains short

9/27/19; 10:14 AM EST = +56; signal line is +58
9/27/19; 10:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +59
9/27/19; 9:58 AM EST = +40; signal line is +60

9/27/19; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +61

9/27/19; 4:11 AM EST = +68; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short

9/26/19; 3:45 PM EST = +54; signal line is +61

9/26/19; 3:38 PM EST = +68; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains short
9/26/19; 2:18 PM EST = +54; signal line is +62
9/26/19; 9:55 AM EST = +40; signal line is +62

9/26/19; 9:15 AM EST = +54; signal line is +63

9/26/19; 4:47 AM EST = +68; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short

9/26/19; 4:07 AM EST = +54; signal line is +64

9/26/19; 3:39 AM EST = +68; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short

9/25/19; 3:59 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65

9/25/19; 3:46 PM EST = +68; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains short

9/25/19; 1:48 PM EST = +54; signal line is +66

9/25/19; 1:12 PM EST = +40; signal line is +66

9/25/19; 10:58 AM EST = +54; signal line is +68

9/25/19; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +69

9/24/19; 12:28 PM EST = +54; signal line is +70

9/24/19; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +71

9/23/19; 9:43 AM EST = +68; signal line is +71

9/23/19; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +70

9/22/19; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +70

9/18/19; 1:29 PM EST = +68; signal line is +70; go short 2992; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +19.4%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +2.4%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +11.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.8%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +24.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish. The algorithm prints 8 numbers in the Tuesday session as the stock market deteriorated. This week, the banks, retail stocks, semiconductors and the NYA index all fail into the bear camp creating the stock market angst. The algo number is 31 points below the signal line.

Bulls need SOX above 1532, RTH above 112.80 and/or NYA above 12742. Any one of these three will immediately stop the market selling. If the 3 remain in the bear camp, stocks will continue selling off. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side in play. If all 3 flip bullish, the stock market is likely back in rally mode and heading higher and Keybot would likely flip to the long side.

Bears need weaker utilities to continue the downside fun. If utes remain buoyant, the stock market will likely recover over time. Bears need the utilities to start showing a weekly trend lower if they want to create carnage into the end of the year.

Bears need the SPX below 2833, now at 2893, to set up a potential stock market crash scenario. If the SPX drops below 2833, the stock market is toast; equities will be collapsing in earnest.

Bulls need stronger chips, retail stocks and NYA index while bears need weaker utilities.

10/13/19; 7:00 PM EST =

10/11/19; 10:00 AM EST =

10/8/19; 3:03 PM EST = -20; signal line is +11

10/8/19; 2:36 PM EST = -4; signal line is +14

10/8/19; 2:07 PM EST = -20; signal line is +16

10/8/19; 1:31 PM EST = -4; signal line is +19

10/8/19; 1:03 PM EST = -20; signal line is +21

10/8/19; 12:51 PM EST = -4; signal line is +23

10/8/19; 9:49 AM EST = -20; signal line is +25

10/8/19; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +28

10/7/19; 2:10 PM EST = +26; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bulls goosed the banks yesterday to create some mid-day stock market joy but then fell on their sword. The bears remain in control of the stock market but the algo number is only 4 points below the signal line and the bulls came to within minutes of flipping the model long yesterday. The bull-bear battle continues as political headlines send equities to and fro.

Bears need NYA below 12744 and/or RTH below 112.80 to create market mayhem.

Bulls need XLF above 27.53. If the financials flip into the bull camp, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and then, if the SPX is trending above 2960, Keybot will likely flip long. The SPX begins at 2939, sitting on its 50-day MA support/resistance line, so the bulls need 21 points of upside today if they want to puff their chests out.

10/11/19; 10:00 AM EST =

10/7/19; 2:10 PM EST = +26; signal line is +30

10/7/19; 1:52 PM EST = +42; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short

10/6/19; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +32

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bulls rally the stock market on Friday after the jobs report. The Federal Reserve is expected to print more money so the party was on into the weekend. A happy NYA index and retail stocks send equities higher.

For the new week of trading, the bulls need stronger banks and lower volatility to win the day. Bulls need XLF above 27.55 and/or VIX below 15.97. Either parameter turning bullish will catapult stocks higher. If 1 of the 2 turn bullish, and the SPX is trending higher above 2954, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

The bears need to keep the banks and volatility in the bear camp while at the same time flushing the NYSE Composite Index and retail stocks lower. Bears need NYA below 12710 and/or RTH below 112.70. Either parameter turning bearish will immediately stop the stock market relief rally and roll stocks over to the downside.

If all four parameters remain in their respective camps, the stock market will chop sideways with a slight downward bias. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

10/13/19; 7:00 PM EST =

10/11/19; 10:00 AM EST =

10/6/19; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +32

10/4/19; 11:01 AM EST = +26; signal line is +33

10/4/19; 10:31 AM EST = +10; signal line is +34

10/4/19; 10:07 AM EST = +26; signal line is +36

10/4/19; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +37
10/4/19; 9:00 AM EST = -4; signal line is +39

10/3/19; 11:14 AM EST = -4; signal line is +41

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 45 points below the signal line (very bearish). However, the chips ran higher pulling the broad stock market up. Bears need SOX below 1527 or they got nothing. Bulls need NYA above 12710 and/or RTH above 112.63, either one would do, to create more upside. Both turning bullish would verify that the stock market relief rally is well underway. Bears need weaker chips while bulls need a stronger NYA index and retail stocks.

The US Monthly Jobs Report drops at 8:30 AM EST tomorrow morning one hour before the opening bell for the regular trading session. The stock market may trade wildly on the data. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell.

10/6/19; 7:00 PM EST =

10/4/19; 9:00 AM EST =

10/3/19; 11:14 AM EST = -4; signal line is +41

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears are cruising with the algo number 45 points below the signal line.

Financials, retail stocks, semiconductors and the NYA index fell apart yesterday creating market mayhem. The chips are the key to the stock market direction today as the noon hour approaches on the US East Coast.

The SPX is at 2888 and the SOX is at 1531. The bears need SOX below 1526.85, which is only a whisker lower, to create accelerated downside selling in equities. Bulls will continue to stabilize the stock market if they can maintain bullishness for the semiconductors.

Bulls need NYA above 12707 to prove they have the beans to take the stock market higher. Bears need to push SOX below 1526.85 to create market mayhem. If SPX 2833 fails, it is lights out for the stock market and a crash scenario may quickly develop. The beat goes on. Chips matter.

10/6/19; 7:00 PM EST =

10/4/19; 9:00 AM EST =

10/3/19; 11:14 AM EST = -4; signal line is +41

10/2/19; 10:37 AM EST = -20; signal line is +43

10/2/19; 10:34 AM EST = -4; signal line is +46

10/2/19; 10:13 AM EST = +12; signal line is +48

10/2/19; 9:56 AM EST = -4; signal line is +49
10/2/19; 9:41 AM EST = +12; signal line is +51

10/1/19; 12:23 PM EST = +26; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 26 points below the signal line. The bulls took too long to jam volatility lower after the opening bell; Chairman Powell must be sleeping on the job. The VIX shot skyward above 18 to 18.56 so stocks drop. Banks failed creating a double-whammy of bull misery.

Interestingly, the SPX came up to tag the 2992 palindrome for the HOD which is where the model flipped short on 9/18/19. Over the 2 week period, price went nowhere.

For hump day tomorrow, the banks are all that matter. Bulls must push the financials, XLF, above 27.54 (now at 27.41) to stop the stock market selloff. If the bulls fail, you will see retail stocks, chips and other sectors fall apart creating more downside for equities.

The ADP Employment Report hits in the morning and provides a heads-up for the Monthly Jobs Report on Friday morning. Perhaps insider traders, Wall Street is a corrupt cesspool, already know what is coming with the job and wage data?

Watch the banks. If they are happy, the bulls will stage a comeback rally for stocks. If the banks are sad, watch retail stocks and semiconductors since they will likely next drag the stock market lower.

10/6/19; 7:00 PM EST =

10/4/19; 9:00 AM EST =

10/1/19; 12:23 PM EST = +26; signal line is +52

10/1/19; 10:05 AM EST = +42; signal line is +54

10/1/19; 9:51 AM EST = +56; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains short

9/30/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +42; signal line is +55

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bull-bear battle continues. Bulls are jamming futures higher with lower volatility. The Federal Reserve is always at the ready to place their jack boots on the throat of volatility to support the stock market.

Keybot is tracking VIX 15.93 as the key bull-bear line in the sand. The VIX is currently trading at 16.07, teasing the psychological support at 16 this morning, Tuesday, six hours before the opening bell for the regular US trading session. It's all about vol. Stock market bulls win if the VIX drops below 15.93. Bears will remain in control of the stock market direction if the VIX remains above 15.93.

If VIX falls below 15.93, consider that the imminent turn to the long side is in play, and if the SPX moves above 2984, it is likely that Keybot will flip long. S&P futures are up +12. The SPX begins today at 2977 so if the futures hold in place, the S&P 500 will move handily above 2984. It's all about volatility; VIX 15.93 tells the market story today.

Keep an eye on the banks. Bears need XLF below 27.55. If the financials become soggy, that would be bearish for stocks, however, if the banks have a big up day, that will likely point to bullish joy for the days ahead.

September and Q3 ends yesterday (EOM, EOQ3) and the first day of October trading is set to begin. New money usually flows into equities to begin a quarter and may account for some of the buoyancy in the US futures. Watch VIX 15.93; it tells you everything you need to know.

10/4/19; 9:00 AM EST =

9/30/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +42; signal line is +55

9/29/19; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +55

Note Added 4:53 AM EST: The VIX drops to 15.98 but recovers to 16.11. S&P futures +11. The bulls, and central bankers, keep jamming vol lower to send futures higher and came to within a nickel of all-out victory. VIX 15.93 is all that matters today.