STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algorithm is champing at the bit to go long. The bears are in control of the stock market but the bulls want the ball back with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. The internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move to the long side yesterday. Today, Tuesday, the bulls have an easier path. If the SPX moves above 3054, only a 1 point gain, Keybot will likely flip long. A gap-up opening would not help the bulls; it may actually delay the turn. S&P futures are jumpy overnight going negative at 1:30 AM EST now down -8 about 5-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the regular US trading session. VIX is higher at the 32.23 palindrome.

The bears need to prevent SPX 3054 with all their might, otherwise, they will fold like a cheap suit. Bears need to push the VIX above 37.42 if they want to create market carnage. The SPX fell to the 3002 that Keybot called out ahead of time, and bounced. The bulls, and the Fed, knew it was lights out under 3002, the cliff edge, so the central bank jackboots stood on the neck of volatility and equities floated higher into the closing bell.

Bulls need stronger banks and commodities. Bulls need XLF above 23.20 (now at 22.83) and GTX above 1680 (now at 1613) and stocks will be rallying to new record highs. As explained in previous posts, the utilities helped the bulls yesterday giving the stock market a leg up out of the gate.

There is something 'velly intalesting' going on under the surface. The comparison number for utilities is UTIL 646 for the next three days and then 759 for 7/6/20 through 7/10/20. UTIL rallied a big +2% yesterday above 764. Few noticed. The bulls know they must move UTIL above 759 before next week or the stock market is screwed. Watch that UTIL 759 bull-bear line in the sand very closely the next few days into and through next week especially this Thursday at 4 PM EST when US markets close until Monday. If UTIL ends this week sub 759, the stock market is in big trouble for next week. If UTIL ends this week above 759, this will provide encouragement and support to the stock market next week.

Summing up all that windbag stuff, if the SPX gains one point, Keybot will likely flip long. Bulls will receive lots of upside energy if XLF moves above 23.20 and/or GTX above 1680. Bears will receive downside energy if they stop SPX 3054 from happening while also pushing the VIX above 37.42 (pushing volatility higher in general) and UTIL below 759.

Bulls are cheering for positive S&P futures and higher banks and commodities. Bears are cheering for negative S&P futures, higher volatility and weaker utilities. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers today as the month, quarter and first half of the year of trading ends. Whoopsies daisies. S&P futures now off -12.

7/5/20; 7:00 PM EST =
7/2/20; 9:00 AM EST =

6/30/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/30/20; 10:00 AM EST =

6/29/20; 9:36 AM EST = +7; signal line is 0 but algorithm remains short

6/28/20; 7:00 PM EST = -9; signal line is -2

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The banks collapsed out of the gate on Friday so the fix was in for the bears. The central banks, however, maintain their jackboots on the throat of volatility to prevent things from spinning out of control. The bears are in charge but the algo number is only 7 points below the signal line.

The bears can create stock market carnage if they want to; it is sitting on a silver platter. The SPX begins the new week at 3009. If 3002 fails, it is lights out for the stock market. The negativity will be palpable and here to stay for a while. If the VIX then moves above 37.42 (starting the week at 34.73 at 3 AM EST), equities may go into an all-out crash profile. As long as the VIX does not move above 37.42, the bulls should be fine. If VIX takes out 37.42, the bulls have zero hope and will be taken to the shed out back and beaten mercilessly.

Bulls suffered a big hit on Friday with the weaker banks. The bulls have bloody noses and are dizzy, but still standing, ready to fight some more. Since banks may be a lost cause for a few days and weeks, the bulls will focus on utilities and commodities. Bulls will automatically receive a boost on Monday since UTIL begins at 749 and 646 is the bull-bear line in the sand this week. This will help steady markets but bears can create trouble as described above. Bulls will also benefit if GTX moves above 1680 (now at 1613).

The caution flag is out. If UTIL or GTX flip into the bull camp, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play. If either parameter flips bullish (which utes will at the opening bell), and the SPX moves above 3074, which seems way out of reach, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Although this outcome seems unlikely you never know in these current erratic markets and if volatility rises, price will be swinging wildly all over the place intraday and day to day. Bulls need 65 S&P points on Monday to dig out of the hole.

The US Independence Day holiday is Saturday and markets are closed on Friday, 7/3/20, so it is a holiday-shortened week. Bulls typically have the upper hand the day or two in front of a holiday weekend. The US Monthly Jobs Report is released on Thursday morning since markets are closed on Friday so 7/2/20 may be a wild day. The EOM, EOQ2 and EOH1 occurs on Tuesday, 6/30/20, and July trading begins on Wednesday. The bulls may try to attract new money into funds to float markets higher into the barbecue weekend. 

Keybot prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week two on Tuesday and one on Thursday morning. Four trading days are ahead two in June and two in July; then it is party time, or, perhaps for some, time to cry in their beerski's.

Bears need SPX sub 3002 and it is over for stocks. VIX above 37.42 will wildly accelerate the stock market selloff and the blood will flow on Wall Street. Bulls will benefit as long as UTIL remains above 646 this week. Bulls must keep the SPX elevated, volatility depressed and try to rally commodities (would need a weaker dollar). Watch to see if the bears can find 7 negative S&P points in the futures overnight; if so, that tells you that big trouble is ahead.

7/5/20; 7:00 PM EST =
7/2/20; 9:00 AM EST =

6/30/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =

6/30/20; 10:00 AM EST =

6/28/20; 7:00 PM EST = -9; signal line is -2

6/26/20; 10:26 AM EST = -9; signal line is -2
6/26/20; 10:06 AM EST = +7; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short

6/26/20; 10:00 AM EST = -9; signal line is -3

6/26/20; 9:36 AM EST = -9; signal line is -4

6/25/20; 2:52 PM EST = +7; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side as the stock market cannot make a decision on which direction to go. The quant prints six numbers yesterday and you can see the ping-pong, back and forth game, ongoing between the bulls and bears. The algo wants to flip back to the long side right now but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move.

If the bulls can push the SPX 2 or 3 points higher above 3086, after the opening bell, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. A gap-up open would not be good instead bulls need a nice gentle and steady trending path higher. However, S&P futures are currently down -10 so the bears must be planning to fight. Bulls will receive upside fuel if utilities strengthen. Bulls need UTIL above 762.60 (now at 757) to create lift in the stock market.

For next week, the UTIL 762.60 number disappears and is replaced with 646.13. Thus, the bulls will receive relief next week and some stock market buoyancy will be created by the utilities. However, the plot thickens again, since for the following trading week, 7/6/20 through 6/10/20, the UTIL 646.13 number disappears and is replaced with 758.93 as the key bull-bear line in the sand for that week. Note that price is a couple bucks below this number right now. The uber low 646.13 is pulled from the depths of the March selloff and an outlier. The machines are likely looking through that number to the 759 line in the sand in six trading days. Thus, watch that UTIL 759 level for the next two weeks into 7/10/20. If UTIL remains below 759 going forward, especially if it drops below 700, over the next couple weeks, a crash scenario for the US stock market is definitely on the table.

The bears have the ball although as explained above the bulls want it back as trading begins today. Did you see how the XLF came up and was sticky at that 23.36-23.37 bull-bear line in the sand called out by Keybot the Quant ahead of time? You should be impressed that the robot can pull off such a feat. The bulls goosed the banks before the stress test results by rescinding rules put in place during the Great Recession (in other words the bankster thieves can return to their old ways of gambling on derivative investments and when they get into financial trouble the sucka American peon will bail them out; isn't crony capitalism grand?). So XLF catapults from the 23.36-23.37 line in the sand to 23.59 at the closing bell. For the stress tests, the Fed freezes the bank dividends for a quarter and halts buybacks which sends the stocks lower in AH (after hours) trading. Guess where price was sticky after the stress test results? Yes, at 23.36-23.37. XLF will begin trading shortly in the pre-market and that will tell you a lot about today's path forward for equities. Bears need XLF below 23.37 to create market negativity. It looks like that may be on tap that is why you see the futures red.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number one-half hour after trading begins in the regular session begins. Bulls need S&P futures positive by a couple points and they can flip the model long. UTIL above 763 will also create bull fuel.

Bears need to keep futures negative and push XLF below 23.37 as fast as possible to create negativity. Bears must maintain weak utes going forward and start pushing UTIL towards sub 700 which will create stock market carnage and a serious crash scenario.

Today, if the banks turn negative (XLF below 23.37) and the stock market is looking troubled, watch volatility. If the VIX pops above 37.31 (now at 33.35 trading for about an hour) it is lights-out for the stock market. The downside is real and stocks will fall apart. If the session is soggy with weak stocks but the VIX does not move above 37.31, the bulls will battle back and stocks will likely recover during a choppy session.

6/28/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/26/20; 10:00 AM EST =

6/25/20; 2:52 PM EST = +7; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short

6/25/20; 1:27 PM EST = -9; signal line is -5

6/25/20; 12:47 PM EST = +7; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short

6/25/20; 10:42 AM EST = -9; signal line is -4

6/25/20; 10:19 AM EST = +7; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short

6/25/20; 9:37 AM EST = -9; signal line is -4

6/24/20; 2:12 PM EST = +7; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short

Note Added 4:26 AM EST: The XLF is trading down -2% to 23.11 in the pre-market. VIX 33.40.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side right before lunchtime today at SPX 3069. The banks and utilities fail creating negativity. The battle rages on, however and the algo is already in position to flip back to the long side but likely needs to see the SPX above 3100 today. The bears must jam UTIL back below 762.60 as fast as possible. Bears must also keep XLF below 23.36 to maintain stock market weakness. Bulls need to keep utilities elevated and boost the banks while pushing volatility lower. Stay alert for a whipsaw. UTIL is at 766. XLF is at 23.05.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program gains a percent and the actual trading gains +1.3%. The benchmark S&P 500 is down -5% on the year while the actual trading, generated by the Keybot the Quant algorithm, is up over +27%. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

6/28/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/26/20; 10:00 AM EST =

6/24/20; 2:12 PM EST = +7; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short

6/24/20; 1:30 PM EST = +-9; signal line is -5

6/24/20; 12:49 PM EST = +7; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short

6/24/20; 11:28 AM EST = -9; signal line is -5; go short 3069; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -5.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +20.5%)(Actual trading results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +27.4%)

6/24/20; 9:51 AM EST = +7; signal line is -5

6/23/20; 11:53 AM EST = +23; signal line is -5

6/23/20; 11:06 AM EST = +37; signal line is -6

6/22/20; 9:36 AM EST = +23; signal line is -7

6/21/20; 7:00 PM EST = +7; signal line is -7

6/17/20; 9:00 AM EST = +7; signal line is -7

6/15/20; 12:59 PM EST = +7; signal line is -7; go long 3041; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -5.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +19.6%)(Actual trading results this trade = +9.6%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +26.1%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and has not printed any numbers since the pre-scheduled number last Wednesday. The bulls are in charge of the stock market with the algo number 14 points above the signal line.

Utilities ended the week at the lows. Be very afraid going forward. UTIL collapses to 771. The quant is tracking UTIL 762.60 as the bull-bear line in the sand for this week. Thus, if the 771 holds, it will actually help the bulls maintain an elevated stock market. However, if the 763 level fails, the stock market may crash. Watch it closely.

The bears need weaker utes and banks and higher volatility to create market mayhem. Note that the VIX ended the week at the highs at 35.12. As volatility climbs, the intraday and day to day moves in the stock market will become larger and more erratic. The stock market will sell off if the VIX moves above 36.45 so it is very much in play and the VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. Bears also need XLF below 23.49 to create selling pressure. XLF came down to about 20 cents away from this bull-bear line in the sand in Friday's trade. Banks are releasing stress test information on Thursday so the bulls may try to keep the XLF afloat until that data is released.

The bulls need stronger commodities and GTX is on the verge of a breakout higher. GTX is at 1662 and printed a high at 1677 on Friday only 10 points from the 1687 bull-bear line in the sand that will add upside juice to the stock market. A weaker US dollar will send commodities higher while a stronger dollar will tend to stifle commodities.

Summing up to provide some simple things yinz can watch, bulls are happy and will maintain elevated stocks if UTIL remains above 763 this week and if GTX moves above 1687. The bears will growl if UTIL loses 763, XLF loses 23.49 and/or if VIX moves above 36.45. If any of these 3 parameters flip to the bear camp, and if the SPX drops below 3083, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. If UTIL loses the 763 level, the stock market may crash at the least the S&P 500 would be expected to flush lower from 20 to 30 points within a half hour after the UTIL 763 is breached, if it is breached.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning one-half hour after the opening bell. The VIX will provide a heads-up for the Monday session in the States after it begins trading overnight. Watch those utilities. The stock market may experience epic times this week.

Global traders are expecting the PBOC (China's central bank) to lower the triple R's (reserve requirement ratios for banks) this weekend which will provide more easy money to keep the sick financial circus afloat. The Chinese may announce the cuts at 5 PM EST before US futures begin trading this evening at 6 PM EST. If so, it will likely buoy the market and provide encouragement to utilities and banks and send volatility lower. If China remains quiet, and traders are looking under the bed for triple R cuts and do not find any, that may open the door to substantive trouble for equities this week. Traders are like junkies; they need that central banker easy money fix every few days or they go into withdrawal. The PBOC cut the triple R's at the July 4 US holiday two years ago.

There are lots of moving parts and noise in markets right now. Focus on the utes, banks, volatility and commodities. These four parameters are dictating stock market direction currently. The bulls do not want to stop believing in the perpetual, central banker-driven stock market ongoing for over 11 years.

6/28/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/26/20; 10:00 AM EST =

6/21/20; 7:00 PM EST = +7; signal line is -7

6/17/20; 9:00 AM EST = +7; signal line is -7

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and the algorithm has not printed any numbers the last couple days except for the pre-scheduled number. The bulls are in charge but the price action remains erratic and unstable.

Commodities remain bearish. Bulls need GTX above 1685 to send stocks higher.

Banks and volatility remain bullish creating stock market joy. Bears need XLF below 23.49 and/or VIX above 36.38 to create selling pressure. If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX slips below 3094, Keybot may flip short.

Utilities are extremely important going forward. Bears need UTIL below 763 for all of next week to maintain negativity. UTIL is at 799. If UTIL closes today above 763, that will give stocks a lift on Monday morning. Generally, over the next three weeks, bears need UTIL below the 750-760 level and trending lower. If so, stocks will be collapsing lower and will remain weak through the end of the year. If UTIL remains above 763 going forward, it tells you that the bulls can keep the stock market elevated. If UTIL moves above 839, it signals loud and clear that the bulls rule the markets and stocks will be catapulting higher. Watch the utilities closely. Any sogginess in utes hints that trouble is ahead for the stock market. If utilities rally higher and UTIL moves above 8 hundo going higher, the bulls rule.

6/21/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/17/20; 9:00 AM EST = +7; signal line is -7

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market staggers sideways like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night. The pre-scheduled number prints and the bulls remain in charge with the algo number 14 points above the signal line. Bulls need stronger commodities and utilities to send stocks higher. Bears need weaker banks and higher volatility to send stocks lower.

Bulls need GTX above 1685. Commodities will need the US dollar to weaken to move higher. Bears need XLF below 23.50 to end the stock market rally. Bears need VIX above 36.40 to create serious downside selling pressure. If the XLF turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 3108 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. If the VIX turns bearish, volatility will likely need to jog above and below the 36.40 level a couple of times, plus the SPX dropping below 3108, to flip Keybot short. If both XLF and VIX turn bearish, Keybot will likely flip short since stocks will be dropping like rocks, hence, the caution flag and imminent turn notation is in the title line. If GTX remains bearish and XLF and VIX bullish, like the last couple days, the stock market will chop sideways without yet committing to a direction forward.

Watch the commodities, banks and volatility since they are dictating stock market direction currently. If the banks are weak in the pre-market on Thursday morning, that will hint that Keybot may flip short during the session.

6/21/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/17/20; 9:00 AM EST = +7; signal line is -7

6/15/20; 12:59 PM EST = +7; signal line is -7; go long 3041; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -5.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +19.6%)(Actual trading results this trade = +9.6%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +26.1%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull camp at 1 PM EST yesterday at SPX 3041. King Donnie and Prince Powell saved the day with the Federal Reserve promising to start buying individual corporate bonds and the president promising a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. The stock market is always saved to protect the wealthy class that own huge equity portfolios. Isn't the phony baloney crony capitalism system a hoot?

The banks failed out of the gate yesterday paving the way for the carnage. The SPX lost the critical 3K level, which blows through all technical support in all time frames, so it was lights out for the stock market. That is why Trump and Powell panicked and started handing out Christmas candy and they beat the devil back from the door again.

The SPX launches like a rocket intraday. The banks jump back into the bull's easy-money feather bed and then volatility was jammed lower to keep stocks elevated. Bulls need stronger utilities and commodities so watch those tickers to see if there is any additional upside juice there.

Bears need VIX above 36.42 or they got nothing. Bulls will remain in charge of the stock market direction as long as the VIX remains below 36.42. The VIX is trading at 34.11 as this post is typed 6 hours before the opening bell for the regular Tuesday US trading session so bears need to move the VIX 2 figures higher if they want to growl again. Bears also need weaker banks. Bears need the XLF below 23.52 to gain downside strength.

On the last trade, that ran for barely a week, the quant program gains +5% and the actual trading generated by the robot gains +10%. The benchmark S&P 500 index is down -6% on the year losing -5% over the last week. The Keybot the Quant algo program is +20% on the year and the actual trading generated by Keybot is up over +26% in 2020. The actual trading returns +30% over the last couple months riding the market up and then down. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's. The beat goes on.

6/21/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/17/20; 9:00 AM EST =

6/15/20; 12:59 PM EST = +7; signal line is -7; go long 3041; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -5.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +19.6%)(Actual trading results this trade = +9.6%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +26.1%)

6/15/20; 12:53 PM EST = +7; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short

6/15/20; 11:07 AM EST = -7; signal line is -6

6/15/20; 10:52 AM EST = -23; signal line is -4

6/15/20; 10:28 AM EST = -37; signal line is -2

6/15/20; 10:14 AM EST = -23; signal line is -0

6/15/20; 9:36 AM EST = -37; signal line is +2

6/14/20; 7:00 PM EST = -7; signal line is +5

6/12/20; 2:31 PM EST = -7; signal line is +7

6/12/20; 2:15 PM EST = -21; signal line is +9

6/12/20; 1:52 PM EST = -37; signal line is +11
6/12/20; 1:51 PM EST = -21; signal line is +13
6/12/20; 10:18 AM EST = -7; signal line is +15

6/12/20; 10:08 AM EST = +7; signal line is +15

6/12/20; 10:00 AM EST = -7; signal line is +16
6/12/20; 9:55 AM EST = -7; signal line is +17

6/12/20; 9:46 AM EST = +7; signal line is +18

6/12/20; 9:36 AM EST = -7; signal line is +19
6/11/20; 2:58 PM EST = -23; signal line is +20

6/11/20; 2:07 PM EST = -7; signal line is +21
6/11/20; 2:00 PM EST = +7; signal line is +22

6/11/20; 1:44 PM EST = -7; signal line is +22

6/11/20; 1:21 PM EST = +7; signal line is +23

6/11/20; 12:54 PM EST = -7; signal line is +23
6/9/20; 3:59 PM EST = +7; signal line is +24

6/9/20; 12:45 PM EST = +21; signal line is +24

6/9/20; 11:43 AM EST = +7; signal line is +23

6/9/20; 10:52 AM EST = +21; signal line is +23

6/9/20; 9:58 AM EST = +7; signal line is +21; go short 3200; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -1.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +12.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +14.6%)(Actual trading results this trade = +20.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +16.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading begins. The bears are in charge but the algo number is only 12 points below the signal line, hence the caution flag is out. S&P futures are tanking -90 points as this post is written 5-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the regular US Monday trading session. The bears are growling.

Bears need the SPX to lose the 3002-3006 level and it appears on tap if the futures hold. This failure opens the door to carnage and misery for stocks. Bears need weaker banks and for the XLF to drop below 23.35. Watch this closely. If stocks sell off heavy, and the XLF fails the 23.35 bull-bear line in the sand, stocks will be collapsing. If equities sell off heavy, and the XLF remains above 23.35, the dip-buyers are entering the stock market and will stabilize the situation and try to begin a relief rally.

Bulls need lower volatility. The central banks are trying to keep the VIX beachball underwater to support stocks, and the wealthy class, but splurt, the ball slips away and jumps higher out of the water sending futures and stocks lower. Chairman Powell needs to place some pine tar on his hands. Bulls need VIX below 35.60 which seemed achievable after the closing price of 36 and change for the weekend. However, after about an hour of trading thus far this week, the VIX pops to 43.15 so now the bulls have a lot of work to do to harness the VIX beachball and drag it lower underwater again. Bulls got nothing until they move the VIX sub 35.60.

Watch SPX 3002-3006 and XLF 23.35 to gauge the strength of the selloff once stocks begin trading in the states. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning. The beat goes on.

6/21/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/17/20; 9:00 AM EST =

6/14/20; 7:00 PM EST = -7; signal line is +5

6/12/20; 2:31 PM EST = -7; signal line is +7

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after another wild trading session. The quant prints 10 numbers in the Friday trade with the bears remaining in control of the stock market direction with the algo number 14 points below the signal line.

The bears were salivating at about 2 PM EST a couple hours before the closing bell. Equities were on the cliff-edge of flushing perhaps crashing lower. The critical SPX 3001-3006 area ruptured so it was all over but the crying. Alas, the central bankers ran to the rescue, as usual, and attacked the VIX jamming it lower, pumping stocks higher, into the closing bell to save the day. Bulls and bears regroup this weekend. Is a Black Monday in store?

The bulls goosed the banks to stabilize the stock market. The drama will pick up on Monday where it left off on Friday with three main parameters, three little birds, impacting stock market direction; the SPX 3001-3006 level, the banks and volatility. SPX and XLF are in the bull camp creating positivity for stocks while the VIX is in the bear camp creating negativity for equities. The caution flag is out since the price action remains erratic and unstable and is becoming dicey.

6/14/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/12/20; 2:31 PM EST = -7; signal line is +7

6/12/20; 2:15 PM EST = -21; signal line is +9

6/12/20; 1:52 PM EST = -37; signal line is +11
6/12/20; 1:51 PM EST = -21; signal line is +13

6/12/20; 10:18 AM EST = -7; signal line is +15

6/12/20; 10:08 AM EST = +7; signal line is +15

6/12/20; 10:00 AM EST = -7; signal line is +16

6/12/20; 9:55 AM EST = -7; signal line is +17

6/12/20; 9:46 AM EST = +7; signal line is +18

6/12/20; 9:36 AM EST = -7; signal line is +19

6/11/20; 2:58 PM EST = -23; signal line is +20

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo was quiet on hump day, when Chairman Powell was tap-dancing, but prints six numbers yesterday. Volatility and banks failed yesterday creating the bulk of the downside negativity. The bears are cruising along with the algo number 43 points below the signal line.

The current battle for stock market direction is waged by volatility, banks, the SPX Index and you can sprinkle in some commodities as well. The Keybot the Quant algorithm is tracking the following bull-bear levels; VIX 35.80, XLF 23.31, SPX 3001 and GTX 1698, respectively.

Bears need to maintain high volatility, weak banks and weak commodities while pushing the SPX below 3001. The SPX begins the session at 3002 only 1 measly point in the bull camp but S&P futures are up +46 points as this is written 5 hours before the opening bell for the regular US Friday trading session. If SPX 3001 fails, it is lights-out for the US stock market for the remainder of the year. Equities will trail lower and lower and a crash scenario is on the table. Bulls will weather the storm and at a minimum create sideways choppiness as long as they prevent the SPX from losing 3001.

The bulls need lower volatility and the VIX below 35.80 to stop the pain. The VIX pops above 40 during yesterday's stock market carnage but drops 3 figures overnight currently trading at 37.10 perhaps on the way to a 36 handle. The central banks are in there wresting Uncle Vix to the ground, placing their jackboots on his neck to keep him down. Bulls need the XLF above 23.31 pronto so watch the pre-market to see how the banks are doing. Bulls would also benefit from stronger commodities with GTX above 1698. This is dependent on the US dollar; weaker dollar is higher commodities and visa versa.

Keep watching utilities. UTIL is collapsing after failing to attain the critical 839-840 level. This is extremely bad news for stocks going forward. UTIL is at 793 losing the 8 hundo level. Bulls need UTIL above 839 which will signal the all-clear for stabilization in the stock market and a bull rally. UTIL under 839 will create continued weakness in equities. The critical week is the following week, 6//22/20 thru 6/26/20. UTIL must be below 763 by Monday, 6/22/20, otherwise the bulls will stage a comeback during this time. If UTIL keeps drifting lower, and next week it drops below 763 (only 30 points lower), Katy bar the door, the stock market may crash.

So that is a lot to chew on but now you know what to watch to forecast market direction. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell this morning.

SPX 3001 is for all the marbles. Death and destruction occurs in the stock market if it fails. Since futures are running higher this is likely not on the table after the opening bell but the day is long. Watch the banks. XLF 23.31 will immediately verify equity direction. If stocks rally, as futures suggest, but the banks will not go into the bull camp, stocks will roll over and die. If stocks rally, and XLF moves above 23.31, the bulls are stabilizing markets, so watch VIX 35.80 next which would signal an all-clear for a relief rally. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

6/14/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/12/20; 10:00 AM EST =

6/11/20; 2:58 PM EST = -23; signal line is +20

6/11/20; 2:07 PM EST = -7; signal line is +21

6/11/20; 2:00 PM EST = +7; signal line is +22

6/11/20; 1:44 PM EST = -7; signal line is +22

6/11/20; 1:21 PM EST = +7; signal line is +23
6/11/20; 12:54 PM EST = -7; signal line is +23

6/9/20; 3:59 PM EST = +7; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 3200. Utilities and the NYA Index collapsed out of the gate creating broad based stock market negativity. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw since the price action is erratic and unstable. The quant was active on Tuesday printing 6 numbers and flipping short. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 17 points below the signal line.

It is all about utes, the NYA Index and commodities. These three parameters are steering the broad stock market ship currently. UTIL, NYA and GTX are all in the bear camp which creates the sogginess in equities. Bears simply need to keep these three weak and make them weaker. Bulls need UTIL over 839-840, NYA above 12625 and/or GTX above 1698.

The NYA is at 12620 only 5 measly points in the bear camp. Bulls must pump the NYA above 12625, otherwise, each day that passes is another nail in the bull coffin. NYA not only matters in the direct short-term, as in today, but also has an intermediate and long-term impact on equities. The NYA 12625 bull-bear line in the sand tells you everything you need to know about broad stock market direction.

The drama with utilities continues. If UTIL remains below 839 going forward, the stock market is in serious trouble.

On the last trade, that ran for almost a month, the Keybot program gains +12% and the actual trading gains a humongous +20% due to the small cap joy. The SPX gets back to even on the year, almost, down -1% for 2020 thus far. The actual trading generated by the Keybot robot is up +17% on the year. Keybot exits IWM and enters SDS. The quant is back in the 2x ETF's but caution is warranted since a whipsaw may occur in these erratic markets and because Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks today. If Powell promises more easy money, stocks may catapult higher.

Watch UTIL 839-840 and NYA 12625 since these two will dictate stock market direction today. Time to see what the bears got. Will the bears strut around as sharp-dressed men or will they fold like a cheap suit?

6/14/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/12/20; 10:00 AM EST =

6/9/20; 3:59 PM EST = +7; signal line is +24

6/9/20; 12:45 PM EST = +21; signal line is +24

6/9/20; 11:43 AM EST = +7; signal line is +23

6/9/20; 10:52 AM EST = +21; signal line is +23

6/9/20; 9:58 AM EST = +7; signal line is +21; go short 3200; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -1.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +12.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +14.6%)(Actual trading results this trade = +20.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +16.5%)

6/9/20; 9:36 AM EST = +21; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long

6/8/20; 12:51 PM EST = +53; signal line is +20

6/8/20; 12:47 PM EST = +37; signal line is +18

6/8/20; 12:34 PM EST = +21; signal line is +17

6/8/20; 12:31 PM EST = +37; signal line is +16

6/8/20; 11:52 AM EST = +53; signal line is +14

6/8/20; 11:32 AM EST = +37; signal line is +12

6/8/20; 10:59 AM EST = +53; signal line is +9

6/8/20; 10:57 AM EST = +37; signal line is +6
6/7/20; 7:00 PM EST = +21; signal line is +3

6/5/20; 3:59 PM EST = +21; signal line is +1

6/5/20; 3:48 PM EST = +7; signal line is -1

6/5/20; 12:12 PM EST = +21; signal line is -3

6/5/20; 11:57 AM EST = +37; signal line is -6

6/5/20; 11:43 AM EST = +21; signal line is -9

6/5/20; 11:36 AM EST = +37; signal line is -11

6/5/20; 10:48 AM EST = +21; signal line is -14

6/5/20; 10:33 AM EST = +7; signal line is -17

6/5/20; 10:10 AM EST = +21; signal line is -20

6/5/20; 10:02 AM EST = +7; signal line is -22

6/5/20; 9:36 AM EST = +21; signal line is -24

6/5/20; 9:00 AM EST = +7; signal line is -26
5/31/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +7; signal line is -28

5/29/20; 10:00 AM EST = +7; signal line is -30

5/27/20; 12:16 PM EST = +7; signal line is -31

5/27/20; 11:51 AM EST = -9; signal line is -32

5/27/20; 10:38 AM EST = -23; signal line is -32

5/27/20; 9:55 AM EST = -9; signal line is -32
5/26/20; 3:57 PM EST = +7; signal line is -33

5/26/20; 3:46 PM EST = -7; signal line is -36

5/26/20; 10:00 AM EST = +7; signal line is -38

5/26/20; 9:36 AM EST = +7; signal line is -40

5/24/20; 7:00 PM EST = -23; signal line is -43

5/19/20; 9:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -44
5/18/20; 9:36 AM EST = -23; signal line is -45

5/17/20; 7:00 PM EST = -39; signal line is -46

5/15/20; 2:02 PM EST = -39; signal line is -46; go long 2858; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -11.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +2.6%)(Actual trading results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = -3.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls spend another day slapping the bears around. The robot remains active spitting out 8 numbers on Monday. The bulls remain in control with the algo number 33 points above the signal line. This may sound like a lot but interestingly, the whole shooting match will be dictated by the utilities.

Utes pop on the lower Treasury rates. Stocks and bonds both are bot (note and bond prices are bid higher sending yields lower), as is the case for over 11+ years, due to the non-stop Federal Reserve and other global central banker largess. If yields sneak higher, utes will retreat.

Bulls need stronger commodities to keep the upside party going; it is the last of the major sectors that needs to turn bullish to maintain the stock market joy. Bulls need GTX above 1698 and stocks will explode higher.

Bears need to keep commodities in check while at the same time stabbing utes and the NYA Index. Bears need UTIL under 840 and the NYA under 12632 as fast as possible. Both parameters launched higher yesterday on the bullish euphoria. The NYA needs to lose a couple hundo points, say -1.5%, to create broad stock market negativity.

UTIL is at 847. Utilities will tell the story going forward. If UTIL remains above 840 this week, the bulls will win and stocks will remain elevated. If this occurs, watch the 902 level since UTIL will need to be there next week to keep the upside party going. If UTIL drops below 840, look out, since the stock market may begin falling like a rock. If this occurs, watch the 763 level since UTIL will need to be below this number in a couple weeks. If UTIL cannot sink below 763 over the next couple weeks, the bears will have no downside strength. If UTIL begins trending lower, taking out 763, the stock market may crash. If UTIL teases and jogs along the 840-ish level, that is likely indicating that the robot wants to flip short although the SPX will also need to drop below 3196.

Keeping it simple, watch UTIL 840. If price remains above, the bulls will keep the stock market elevated. If 840 fails, stocks will likely fall apart and Keybot may flip short if SPX 3196 is lost. For now, the caution flag remains out. If UTIL loses 840, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play.

6/14/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/12/20; 10:00 AM EST =

6/8/20; 12:51 PM EST = +53; signal line is +20

6/8/20; 12:47 PM EST = +37; signal line is +18

6/8/20; 12:34 PM EST = +21; signal line is +17

6/8/20; 12:31 PM EST = +37; signal line is +16

6/8/20; 11:52 AM EST = +53; signal line is +14
6/8/20; 11:32 AM EST = +37; signal line is +12

6/8/20; 10:59 AM EST = +53; signal line is +9

6/8/20; 10:57 AM EST = +37; signal line is +6

6/7/20; 7:00 PM EST = +21; signal line is +3

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the epic price action continues in the stock market. The bulls remain in control with the algo number 18 points above the signal line. Keybot has been sleepy in recent days idling along without printing any numbers but Friday was a different story with a dozen numbers printing including the pre-scheduled number.

These are exciting times and the week ahead may be historic for markets. Have you been watching utilities specifically the UTIL 839 bull-bear line in the sand? Lots of drama there. Also with the NYA Index. Also commodities. These three parameters control the direction and fate of the stock market ahead.

Bulls need stronger utes and commodities to maintain the upside party in equities. Bulls need UTIL above 839-840 (now at 827). It is a game-changer for the year ahead if UTIL moves above 839-840 and remains above this month. If so, the stock market will remain elevated for the remainder of the year. If not, the stock market is going to likely get crushed as the year plays out. Watch UTIL 839-840 like a hawk; it is an extremely important number for the week ahead.

Bulls need GTX above 1703 (now at 1663). This is a commodity index; you can follow it on stockcharts.com under the $GTX symbol. More upside is guaranteed in the stock market if GTX moves higher.

Bears need to push the NYA Index lower. It is the bear's only hope to stop the stock market rally. Bears need NYA below 12632 pronto (now at 12641), otherwise they are cooked. The bulls will joyously keep stocks elevated through the end of the year if they keep NYA above 12632; watch it like a hawk. If NYA slips back below 12632 and remains below, it is likely over for the stock market going forward and massive selling will be on tap.

The caution flag is out since the price action is becoming dicey. The above 3 parameters dictate stock market direction forward. Pay attention to whether UTIL jogs above and below that bull-bear line in the sand at 839-840 and/or if NYA jogs above and below its bull-bear line in the sand at 12632. If these parameters take out the respective levels but then, say, after 10 or 20 minutes, flip back to the other camp, and then after another 10 or 20 minutes, flip back again, this jogging action tells you that the quant is likely getting ready to flip short.

One potential scenario to make for happy bears is if the NYA turns bearish, then if it jogs above and below the 12632 a couple-few times, and then if the SPX moves below 3164 and trends lower, Keybot would likely flip short. Of course, if UTIL or GTX takes out their bull-bear lines in the sand to the upside, it will be off to the races higher for equities.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. Watch UTIL 839-840, GTX 1703 and NYA 12632. Nothing else matters. Stay alert.

6/14/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/12/20; 10:00 AM EST =

6/7/20; 7:00 PM EST = +21; signal line is +3

6/5/20; 3:59 PM EST = +21; signal line is +1

6/5/20; 3:48 PM EST = +7; signal line is -1

6/5/20; 12:12 PM EST = +21; signal line is -3

6/5/20; 11:57 AM EST = +37; signal line is -6

6/5/20; 11:43 AM EST = +21; signal line is -9

6/5/20; 11:36 AM EST = +37; signal line is -11

6/5/20; 10:48 AM EST = +21; signal line is -14

6/5/20; 10:33 AM EST = +7; signal line is -17

6/5/20; 10:10 AM EST = +21; signal line is -20

6/5/20; 10:02 AM EST = +7; signal line is -22

6/5/20; 9:36 AM EST = +21; signal line is -24

6/5/20; 9:00 AM EST = +7; signal line is -26
5/31/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +7; signal line is -28

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long idling all week without printing any numbers thus far. The pre-scheduled number prints in a few hours. The bulls remain in charge with the algo number 35 points above the signal line. Were you watching UTIL? Price came up to 836 knocking on that 839 door and then fails down to 814. Keep watching it.

Bulls need stronger utes, stronger commodities and a higher NYA Index. Bulls need UTIL above 839, GTX above 1697 and NYA above 12623, respectively. Any one of these parameters moving into the bull camp will create guaranteed upside for stocks. Two will create huge upside and all three will send stocks to new all-time highs.

The bears must keep those three parameters in their camp while pushing volatility higher and copper lower. The table is set. Will the meal be hot or cold?

6/7/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/5/20; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +7; signal line is -28

5/29/20; 10:00 AM EST = +7; signal line is -30

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market waits for more central bank largess. ECB President Lagarde is showing her goodies tomorrow. The quant is idling along this week not printing any numbers as yet. A status quo is in place where underlying market parameters remain in their respective camps and price chops sideways with a slight upward bias.

The bulls are jamming stocks higher effortlessly with the central banks at their back. The weaker US dollar is pumping commodities and oil higher sending the stock market higher. Very few understand the epic nature of markets currently. There are wild things that will likely happen going forward.

Bulls need a higher NYA index, higher commodities and higher utilities to continue the upside rally in equities. Bulls need NYA above 12617 which would signal an all-clear for more upside in stocks. The importance of this number cannot be overstated. Bulls will also goose stocks higher if GTX moves above 1696. Commodities will move higher if the US dollar keeps moving lower.

Utilities are important. This is historic price action. For utilities, you always want to keep track of the weekly closing price from 15 weeks prior since this tells you the weekly trend in utes and thereby the trend in the stock market. The 50-week MA is also a very important number for the utilities and UTIL's 50-wk is 839.19. The 15-week lookback comparison number for UTIL is 948.74 and the bulls will not achieve that this week. But for next week, the 15-week lookback number for UTIL is....... wait for it....... no, you really have to wait for it........ a bit longer....... 839.96. This is called an epic showdown. UTIL is at 820 now testing the 20-wk MA resistance. If UTIL moves above 839 over the next 8 trading days, it is a big-time bullish signal for the stock market. However, for the week of 6/15/20, the UTIL 15-wk lookback number is 901.70 so you wonder how the bulls will be able to keep the rally going that high, but for the week of 6/22/20, the UTIL 15-wk lookback number is down at 762.60. This is fantastic stuff.

During June, UTIL will tell you the fate of the stock market for the remainder of the year. On the bull side, if UTIL moves above 839 over the next 10 trading days, the stock market will catapult higher. If UTIL remains above 839 through this month, that tells you the bulls likely have juice to keep the stock market elevated into year end. On the bear side, with UTIL now at 820, if price goes up and teases around the 825-839 area for this week and next, but stalls, and rolls over lower, lookout Nellie. Stocks are going to fold like a cheap suit. If UTIL drops and takes out 763, it is lights out; the stock market will likely crash. Follow UTIL closely each day forward using these guidelines.

The bears have all left town and given up. You can see the big short-covering rally during the last 20 minutes of trading yesterday. Those were all shorts put on over the last week or two where the traders could no longer take the pain and gave up on the short side. Everybody and his brother are bullish the stock market currently. Notable financial analyst Alfred E Neuman says, "What? Me worry?"

Bears need the SPX below 3008 as fast as possible; this is their lifeline. Everyday the S&P 500 is above 3008 is another nail in the bear coffin. Bears must break out of that casket quickly before it is nailed shut. Bears will also benefit with higher volatility. Bears need the VIX above 34.70 (now trading at 26.84 on Wednesday morning 2:26 AM EST).

The beat goes on. Markets are calm this week but is that because it is just before the storm? We will see if Keybot prints any numbers today. If all of the above parameters remain status quo, the stock market will chop sideways with the slight upward bias. Global investors will be watching Madame Lagarde tomorrow to assess the size of her bazooka. She promised a bright new shiny pony (more ECB emergency bond-buying) so she had better deliver.

6/7/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/5/20; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +7; signal line is -28

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo is quiet on Monday not printing any numbers on the first day of June trading. The bulls remain in control with the quant number 35 points above the signal line.

Bears need SPX below 3006 to create stock market negativity. SOX below 1745 and VIX above 34.73 will also create equity selling.

Bulls need NYA above 12614 which will prove that the bulls have a lot of upside juice ahead. Bulls also need UTIL above 843 and GTX above 1692 which will create more upside energy for equities. If the parameters remain status quo, the sideways chop continues. One of the parameters above will flinch and whichever one does it immediately tells you the direction of stocks ahead.

6/7/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/5/20; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +7; signal line is -28

5/29/20; 10:00 AM EST = +7; signal line is -30