STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The S&P 500 did not drop enough for Keybot to turn. The S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high at 3514.77. The bears are pushing hard with the algo number 1 point below the signal line, which is bearish, however, the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move to the bear camp.

To keep it simple, if the SPX drops below 3493 and trends lower on Tuesday, 9/1/20, the first trading day of September, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The S&P 500 begins Tuesday at 3500 so the bears need -7 negative points overnight in the S&P futures and they will be dancing.

Bulls need higher utilities. UTIL popped to 809 and was spanked back to 803. VIX popped to 26.41 but the bears need 28.35 which is the bull-bear line in the sand identified by Keybot.

Keybot prints the pre-scheduled number this evening to lock in the data for the month of August. The algo did not print any numbers during the session.

If the SPX drops below 3493, Keybot will likely flip short. If VIX pops above 28.35, it is over for stocks, they will be dropping like rocks. Bulls need to prevent the S&P 500 from falling below 3493, prevent volatility from moving any higher and push utilities higher.

Looks like on Tuesday, we will probably see what the bears got, or don't got. Perhaps the blood will be flowing by Tuesday Afternoon.

9/6/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/4/20; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +50; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

8/30/20; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number and signal line are both sitting at +50. The stock market is a coin flip as the SPX prints a new all-time high at 3509.23 and new all-time closing high at 3508.01 on Friday, 8/28/20. The S&P 500 crossed 3.4K last Monday and 3.5K on Friday. Equities are in a non-stop melt-up as the Federal Reserve and other central bankers promise to print money forever to keep stocks elevated. The quant has only printed the pre-scheduled numbers for the last two weeks. The price activity is jammed higher across the board.

For stocks to be printing new record highs day after day, the algo number should be 20, 30 even 40 points or more above the signal line instead the numbers are the same. There is likely something very bad about to happen to the stock market but Keybot only sees 1's and 0's so time will have to play out.

Stock market parameters are jammed into the upper stratosphere; the price moves are remarkable. It is an all-out buying frenzy after the dollar was jammed lower a couple weeks ago. The bulls need UTIL above 834 (now at 800) to prove that stocks should be moving higher and plan to remain elevated into year-end. Considering the new record highs, UTIL should be at 840, 850 and higher. Something is likely wrong under the surface.

The bears need UTIL below 763.93 this week, call it 764, for equities to drop and the stock market selling will be accelerating if it occurs. Note that UTIL at 8 hundo is exactly between the bull and bear case for the direction of stocks into year-end. But there is something else going on. UTIL must be above 806.92 next week (the 764-ish number will no longer matter), the holiday-shortened week of 9/8 to 9/11. UTIL is currently below this key number. The action of the utes will tell you a lot this week about the direction of the stock market in the near-term (hours, days and a few weeks) as well as intermediate term (weeks and months).

Bulls must pump utilities higher this week to keep the party going. Independent of achieving the 834, bulls must at a minimum push price above 807 by Friday at 4 PM EST, otherwise, there will be big trouble the following week. The pattern of utilities falling for three consecutive weeks is a very bearish development and predicts serious trouble for stocks going forward on an intermediate and long-term basis. Bulls must pump utes this week to save the day.

Bears need UTIL below 764 this week to lock-in market carnage going forward. Lower commodities and higher volatility will also aid the bears. VIX is at 22.96 and spiked to 27 on Friday. Keybot the Quant identifies VIX 28.92 as the key bull-bear line in the sand where carnage would accelerate.

It is amazing that stocks print new all-time highs but the algorithm just signaled that it wants to go short. That has never happened in the history of the quant. We are in special times. The S&P 500 starts the week at 3508 the record high.

If the SPX falls below 3484, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Watch this closely

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Monday evening and the other on Friday morning. Hold on to your hats. Things are getting dicey. If you see UTIL continuing to fall this week and ending the week sub 807, the stock market is in serious trouble going forward. The bulls may be able to keep the stock market boat afloat a bit longer if they can push utilities higher this week. These are exciting and very special times.

9/6/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/4/20; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/20; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long

8/28/20; 10:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +49

8/25/20; 10:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +48

Outage

The scenic Laurel Highlands in southwestern Pennsylvania was hit with severe storms and winds Thursday evening taking down cable and communications lines. All systems are operational again.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The banks were goosed after Fed Chairman Powell flapped his dovish wings. Of course they were. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3501.38 and new all-time closing high at 3484.55 both on Thursday, 8/27/20. The S&P 500 prints above 3.5K for the first time in history. The 3.4K hats are tossed in the trash and the "SPX 3.5K" hats are handed out at Party Town, where the bulls are gettin' down, havin' fun and foolin' 'round.

The quant continues to idle along as stocks keep floating skyward. UTIL is at 800. Bulls need UTIL above 834 to prove that all the euphoric bullish upside in equities is correct and more record highs are on the way. Bears need UTIL under 744 this week, or 764 next week. On Monday, UTIL will begin the week 36 points away from wreaking serious multi-month stock market trouble. At the same time, UTIL will be 34 points away from the bullish confirmation at 834. Interestingly, the direction that UTIL pivots from 800 will be very telling.

If UTIL continues to leak lower, the stock market is in trouble. If UTIL begins floating higher and higher day after day, that tells you the bulls may be able to keep stocks elevated into year-end. If UTIL loses 764 next week, or 807 the week of 9/8/20 (US markets are closed on 9/7/20 for Labor Day), the stock market is toast and equities will trend lower into year-end. Note that UTIL price is already below 807.

Since Pope Powell pumped the banks higher, the bears will likely focus attention on jamming volatility higher and utes lower. Bears need VIX above 29 and if this occurs, and the SPX drops below 3468, Keybot will likely flip short. Teh pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow morning.

8/30/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/28/20; 10:00 AM EST =

8/25/20; 10:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +48

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long during another sleepy week. Stocks continue growing to the sky with traders at fever pitch. The bullish euphoria leads into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech today at the virtual Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell will dictate the path of markets ahead. The central bankers are the market. 

The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction currently but the pre-scheduled number prints and narrows the bull call to only 2 measly points. Bulls need stronger utilities. UTIL is slip-sliding away now below 800. Bulls need UTIL above 834 for stocks to remain elevated and moving higher into year-end. Right now, utes are hinting that the opposite will happen. Bulls also need banks to remain strong.

Bears need weaker banks which is the top stock market parameter most impacting direction. Bears need XLF below 24.20 (now at 24.84) so this is a drop of over -2%. Remember, the model was focused on banks on Monday to begin the week, and then the bulls goosed the banks higher to keep equities elevated into the Powell main event today.

Bulls need UTIL above 834 which is a formidable task. Bears need XLF below 24.20 which is doable and will depend on what Pope Powell says. The closeness of the algo number and signal line tell you that the stock market is a toss-up. If XLF loses 24.20, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play immediately, and if the SPX then falls below 3444, it is likely that Keybot the Quant will flip short.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning shortly after the opening bell. Today may be a watershed day for the stock market. Powell has promised easy money forever so he had better keep shelling out that fiat gold that makes the wealthy filthy rich. The expectation is for a dovish Fed statement so any hesitance on Powell's part to not print money will create headaches for stocks.

8/30/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/28/20; 10:00 AM EST =

8/25/20; 10:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +48

8/23/20; 7:00 PM EST = +53; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The Fed wine is flowing like water. At the same time, President Trump is providing tasty vaccine and plasma cake snacks each day. The stock market grows to the sky. Tech stocks are at higher valuations than the dotcom bubble in 2000. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 3399.96 and new all-time closing high at 3397.16 both on Friday, 8/21/20. The bulls missed the 3.4K print by only 4 pennies so they show up with vengeance this morning pumping S&P futures +30 points higher.

The quant was sleepy last week only printing the prescheduled number and nothing else. The bulls remain in control of the stock market direction with the algo number 6 points above the signal line (which is not much).

The caution flag is out despite the daily new all-time record highs printing. The banks are key. Bears need XLF below 24.08 which will wreak havoc on the broad stock market. This represents about a -1% drop. The bulls are pumping banks in the pre-market with XLF up +0.7% so now the bears will need a -1.7% retreat to create negativity and the start of selling in the stock market. If XLF loses 24.08, consider the imminent turn to the bear side to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 3379, Keybot will likely flip short.

The bulls are floating along effortlessly higher since the central banks keep telling everyone they will print money forever. To extend the all-time record highs for several days and weeks ahead, the bulls have to push UTIL above 834.60. On an intermediate term basis, with UTIL at 809 right now, bulls need a huge push higher in utilities to prove that they will keep stocks elevated into year end. Each day that goes by and UTIL does not move above 834, is another day that it is far more likely that stocks will trail lower, perhaps far lower, into year-end. In a couple weeks, the utes will be a major focus again for the algorithm. UTIL is trending lower for the last couple weeks. This is a negative sign for the stock market. In nearly all major stock market down moves, UTIL either moves first to the downside or coincidentally with the broad stock indexes selling off. If utes keep trending lower, that is a very negative signal for stocks over the intermediate term (weeks and a few months ahead; into year-end).

Keybot prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and one on Friday morning. EOM is Monday, 8/31/20, next week so 6 trading days remain in the month. The US Labor Day holiday is late this year on 9/7/20 two weeks from now.

Watch the banks. They are all that matters today.

8/30/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/28/20; 10:00 AM EST =

8/25/20; 10:00 AM EST =

8/23/20; 7:00 PM EST = +53; signal line is +47

8/18/20; 9:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls keep slapping the bears around. The algo is idling along this week only printing the prescheduled number thus far. The bulls are in control of the stock market direction with the algo number 7 points above the signal line.

Utilities trend lower the last couple days so it is surprising that the SPX prints a new all-time high at 3395.06 and new all-time closing high at 3389.78 today, Tuesday, 8/18/20. The VIX collapses to 21.51 pumping stocks higher. Copper is experiencing more supply disruptions so the price goes to the moon which pumps the stock market higher.

There is a new development. The quant is now tracking banks as the key parameter impacting stock market direction. On a sleepy day, the banks come out of the shadows and display their fragility. Bears need XLF below 24.12 (now at 24.60) to create the start of market mayhem. This is a -2% drop so pay attention to any news hitting the wires concerning banks here forward. If bad news surfaces, you know the fix is probably in for the stock market and the long-anticipated top in the stock market will likely occur.

If XLF loses 24.12 tomorrow, Wednesday, 8/19/20, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 3370, Keybot will likely flip short.

Bulls need stronger utes to prove that the new all-time highs are not a fluke. Bulls must push UTIL above 835 or they got buptkis. If UTIL remains bearish, and XLF remains bullish, status quo, the stock market will stagger sideways with a slight positive bias.

On hump day, the utilities face off against the banks to determine which way the stock market will go, two enter the cage match, but only one will exit. The banks may lead the stock market down. There's Winners and Losers every day in the big city.

8/23/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/18/20; 9:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +46
8/16/20; 7:00 PM EST = +53; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading is set to begin. The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 7 points above the signal line.

Bulls need UTIL above 835.50 as fast as possible to prove that the stock market can still float upward.

Bears need to keep UTIL below 835.50 and dropping. Bears need CPER below 17.24. Monday will probably be a scenario where stronger utes will make the bulls win while weaker copper will make the bears win. If copper futures lose about -3%, and the SPX falls below 3326 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. Copper and utilities are the main drivers of stock market direction currently.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

8/23/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/18/20; 9:00 AM EST =
8/16/20; 7:00 PM EST = +53; signal line is +46

8/14/20; 10:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo had a sleepy week only printing 6 numbers and one was pre-scheduled. The bulls are in control with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. The bears needed weaker copper on Friday but did not get it. Copper was goosed higher so stocks could not drop. Utilities are below the key UTIL 835.50 line in the sand which helps the bears.

Bulls need stronger utilities while bears need weaker copper and commodities. Copper and the utes remain key for Monday since these two parameters are the biggest influencers on stock market direction currently.

8/16/20; 7:00 PM EST =
8/14/20; 10:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +46

8/13/20; 10:34 AM EST = +53; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in charge of the stock market direction with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. Utilities keep oscillating above and below the key UTIL 835.50 bull-bear line in the sand. Copper retreated yesterday but not enough to entice the model to flip short.

Bulls must push UTIL above 835.50 to prove they are still the big shots and in full control of stock market direction to the upside.

Bears need to keep UTIL below 835.50 and in general keep moving utes lower. Bears also need weaker commodities and copper; either CPER below 17.24 and/or GTX below 1703. This represents a -1.5% drop in copper futures and a -3.3% drop in commodities. Copper appears to be the bears meal ticket but it is trading up +0.3%. Bears now need a -1.8% drop in copper from current prices to entice the quant to flip short (copper was up +0.7% an hour ago).

If copper turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play and if the SPX is below 3363 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. S&P futures are down -18 about  4-1/2 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street. VIX is climbing higher to 23.49. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell.

8/16/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/14/20; 10:00 AM EST =

8/13/20; 10:34 AM EST = +53; signal line is +46

8/13/20; 10:18 AM EST = +69; signal line is +45

8/13/20; 9:36 AM EST = +53; signal line is +45

8/12/20; 11:29 AM EST = +69; signal line is +45

8/11/20; 10:07 AM EST = +53; signal line is +43

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bullish. The bulls are running the show with the algo number 10 points above the signal line. Utilities failed yesterday dropping more than -2% slicing through the key UTIL 835.50 bull-bear line in the sand like a hot knife through butter. If you expect stocks to rally into year-end, the weakening utes may signal otherwise. Keep watching UTIL; if it drops below 8 hundo, that will lead to problematic outcomes for equities.

Bulls need UTIL back above 835.50 pronto, otherwise, the stock market will likely chop sideways with a downward bias.

Bears need to keep making utes weaker while also sending copper and commodities lower. Bears need GTX below 1701 and CPER below 17.25. The bull-bear lines in the sand are about 2.5% below current prices. Copper is down -0.8% so the bears still have work to do today.

If either GTX or CPER turns negative, either one would do, and the SPX drops below 3326, Keybot will likely flip short. S&P futures are up +22.22 points five hours before the opening bell in the US. VIX 22.666. 10-year yield 0.666%.

8/14/20; 10:00 AM EST =

8/11/20; 10:07 AM EST = +53; signal line is +43

8/9/20; 7:00 PM EST = +69; signal line is +43

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market euphoria continues. Every day is a par-tay. The bulls pumped copper higher in the Monday trade while crushing the VIX creating buoyancy in equities. The algo did not print any numbers on Monday. The bulls remain in control with the algo number 26 points above the signal line.

The bulls are cruising along without a care in the world so it will be interesting to see what makes the direction change as time moves along. Bears must focus on pushing utilities, commodities and copper lower if they want to stop the big stock market rally.

Bears need UTIL below 835.52, GTX below 1701 and/or CPER below 17.30. Utes need to lose about -0.7% and the commodities and copper need to lose -3.0% and more to create stock market negativity. Copper is trading down -0.2% currently. The bears likely need 2 of these 3 parameters to turn bearish to flip the model short. If one parameter turns bearish, the caution flag will be out. If 2 turn bearish, the imminent turn to the short side will be in play and if this occurs today, Tuesday, and the SPX drops below 3335, Keybot will likely flip short. It is a tall order for the bears.

S&P futures are up +21 about 5 hours before the opening bell. VIX 21.38. The bulls do not want the party to end. Pay attention to the UTIL 835.52 bull-bear line in the sand since it not only tells you a lot about stock market direction now but also how the year will end.

8/16/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/14/20; 10:00 AM EST =

8/9/20; 7:00 PM EST = +69; signal line is +43

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls finally manage to drag the utilities into their camp on Friday morning so you knew stocks would recover and they did with the SPX finishing positive by a couple points. UTIL blew through the 835.52 bull-bear line in the sand finishing the week up at 843. The strength in utilities is an indication that the bulls can keep stocks elevated into year end. Bulls are cruising along without a care in the world with the algo number 26 points above the signal line.

Are the bulls whistling past the graveyard? This is a fascinating time in markets. At no other time in recent history do you have the technicals lining up negatively, under an ongoing complacent, fearless and euphoric stock market (all topping behavior), but Keybot, that only sees 1's and 0's, remains pedal to the metal long without concern. Something will likely give at anytime and the resulting price action may be historic.

The two parameters most greatly impacting stock market direction currently are utilities and copper. The red metal comes back onto the radar screen for the quant. Keybot is tracking CPER identifying 17.18 as a key bull-bear line in the sand. The stock market rally is over and downside sogginess will begin for equities if CPER loses 17.18. This represents a -1.666% drop from current price so you can watch the copper futures overnight to see if they can muster-up a -1.7% slide to help the bears.

Bulls are throwing confetti each day and drinking Fed wine as long as UTIL remains above 835.52. The stock market will be in trouble if 835 fails. Equities will be in serious trouble on an intermediate basis if UTIL loses 800. If UTIL loses the 750-760 area over the next month, the US stock market will be weaker into year-end and may potentially crash. With UTIL way up at 843, the bulls scoff at such outlandish outcomes.

The bears likely need both UTIL to lose 835.52 and CPER to lose 17.18 for the model to flip short so you can see why the bulls are happy. Commodities are also important. Keep an eye on the GTX 1696 bull-bear line in the sand.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The bulls are set up nicely at +69. It is the Summer of 69.

8/16/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/14/20; 10:00 AM EST =

8/9/20; 7:00 PM EST = +69; signal line is +43

8/7/20; 10:44 AM EST = +69; signal line is +41

8/7/20; 9:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +40

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the pre-scheduled number prints for this week. The bulls remain in charge with the algo number 13 points above the signal line. The bulls have the market parameters pegged to the moon right now so it is hard to see how the bears can turn the tables.

The bulls continue to need UTIL above 835.50-ish to signal the all-clear and verify the stock market joy. Bears have hope as long as they do not allow UTIL to move above 835. The beat goes on.

8/9/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/7/20; 9:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +40

8/5/20; 9:37 AM EST = +53; signal line is +40; go long 3322; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +2.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.1%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +21.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = -6.0%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +26.9%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 3322. The chop suey continues. The bulls pumped commodities, banks and the NYA index higher so the fix was in for a bit more upside, perhaps into tomorrow morning's US Jobs Report. The price action is fascinating.

Did you watch the utes? UTIL pops to 835.73 where it receives another spank down from this critical level that the model identifies before it occurs. Despite the bullish euphoria right now, it is very troublesome that UTIL cannot get above the critical 835.50-ish bull-bear resistance. It is the final prize the bulls need to prove that they can catapult stocks even higher. Stocks have likely reached their peak if UTIL remains below 835 and trending lower. UTIL fell during the session,  after its tease with glory, and will begin the Thursday session at 825.37.

For bears to be happy about utilities signaling carnage ahead, UTIL has to drop below 795 by tomorrow, and for the next couple-three weeks, fall below, and trend below, the 760-765 area. Thus, that is a big 65-point retreat from current levels but in these markets anything can happen. If UTIL ventures lower, sub 800, and dropping, and loses that 750-770 area, the US stock market will be vulnerable to a major crash. If the stock market retreats in the near-term, but utilities remain flat or somewhat buoyant, and UTIL remains above 8 hundo, the market selloff will not be too drastic. Utilities can act as one of your navigational instruments going forward.

The stock market is blown-out to the upside; it is remarkable. Utilities are the only fly in the ointment. As explained above, bulls need UTIL above 835.50-ish for the SPX to print new all-time highs. If UTIL remains sub 835, the market chop probably continues until the jobs report tomorrow. Bears need utilities to fall like rocks which would usher in some equity softness but more importantly need weaker commodities, banks and NYA index: all three have catapulted into the sky over the last couple days. The market parameters are bullish with cushion, it is as if the stock market is on a permanent plateau right now, as Irving Fisher would say.

On the last trade, another chop, that only lasted four trading days, the algo program loses -3.1% and the actual trading dumps -6.0%. That is the most the actual trading lost probably in a couple years; the data would have to be searched. It is simply the nature of the markets, right now; chop suey. Keybot the Quant exits SDS and enters QLD remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's. On the year, the S&P 500 benchmark index, which is the United States stock market, turns positive up about +3% after seven months of trials and tribulations. The algo program is up +21% on the year and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is up +27% on the year.

Stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side although it wold likely occur more due to a negative news story hitting the wires rather than the technicals. Markets remain very erratic and unstable. Traders and investors likely want to wait for the jobs report tomorrow morning to assess the strength, or lack thereof, of the US economy.

8/9/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/7/20; 9:00 AM EST =

8/5/20; 9:37 AM EST = +53; signal line is +40; go long 3322; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +2.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.1%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +21.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = -6.0%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +26.9%)

8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +53; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short

7/31/20; 3:59 PM EST = +53; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short

7/31/20; 3:24 PM EST = +39; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short

7/31/20; 11:37 AM EST = +23; signal line is +39

7/31/20; 10:12 AM EST = +39; signal line is +41

7/31/20; 10:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short

7/30/20; 2:42 PM EST = +53; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short

7/30/20; 1:36 PM EST = +37; signal line is +43

7/30/20; 12:22 PM EST = +53; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short

7/30/20; 11:08 AM EST = +37; signal line is +44

7/30/20; 11:05 AM EST = +23; signal line is +45

7/30/20; 10:59 AM EST = +39; signal line is +46

7/30/20; 10:39 AM EST = +25; signal line is +47

7/30/20; 10:19 AM EST = +9; signal line is +47

7/30/20; 9:59 AM EST = +23; signal line is +49

7/30/20; 9:43 AM EST = +37; signal line is +50; go short 3222; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +24.3%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +32.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the wacko price action. The quant has not printed any numbers this week thus far. The stock market price behavior is extremely erratic at the opening and closing bells for the last three days. Keybot continues champing at the bit to go long since Friday but the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move. It is wild stuff.

If the SPX moves above 3317, call it the 3307-3317 range moving higher, Keybot will likely flip long. The SPX begins at 3307. S&P futures are up +8 about 7 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street for the hump day session so it is looking good for the bulls.

UTIL rallies yesterday popping up to 835.59. The quant told you ahead of time that this level is key. Isn't it amazing that the algorithm can identify not only the key sectors and parameters most greatly impacting stock market direction at any point in time, but also that it pinpoints the prices that the market seeks before they occur? If you are not impressed, you should be. Enjoy and support the information while it is made available.

UTIL price is spanked lower from the key bull-bear line in the sand at 835.50 so the bulls and bears keep slapping each other around as the stock market maintains an upward bias. If UTIL moves above 835.50 heading higher, stocks are going to take off wildly higher in a buying orgy so obscene that it would make Caligula blush.

Bears need to push utilities lower pronto. Bears need either GTX below 1697, NYA below 12433 or XLF below 23.65. If any one of the three turn bearish, the stock market will be rolling over to the downside. If these three parameters remain bullish, and UTIL cannot move above 835, status quo, stocks will chop sideways with a slight upward bias.

The US Monthly Jobs Report is Friday morning so traders are becoming more fixated on that release with each passing hour. So bulls need stronger utilities which will verify the upside party in the stock market and lead to more gains ahead. Bears need weaker utes, commodities, banks and NYA index if they want to growl.

8/7/20; 9:00 AM EST =

8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +53; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market gyrations and epic price action continues. The algo did not print any numbers on Monday. Keybot is champing at the bit to go long but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. The bulls needed a slow and steady move higher for the SPX but instead another wild gap-up move occurs yesterday. The quant is tracking S&P 500 price with great interest and it appears that if the SPX moves above 3313, Keybot will likely flip long.

There are many moving parts nowadays creating this sideways choppiness chewing up both the bulls and bears. Commodities are receiving lots of love these days which creates buoyancy in the stock market. Banks are also hanging in there which supports equities. The deciding action remains with the utilities and NYA index. These two are the top dogs dictating the stock market direction ahead.

The bulls are on the verge of flipping the model long. The algo number is 14 points above the signal line which is bullish. As mentioned above, if the SPX moves above 3313, call it that 3303-3313 range, and steadily trends higher, Keybot will likely flip long. If UTIL moves above 835.30, the stock market will take off skyward like a rocket ship. Stronger utes will be confirmation that the bulls are running the show going forward on a near-term (hours, days and a few weeks) and intermediate-term (weeks and months) basis.

The bears must flex their muscles immediately or they will go down in a ball of flames. Bears need NYA below 12432 pronto. This is a lower bull-bear line in the sand, by a few points, as compared to yesterday, so the bears have their work cut out for them. NYA is at 12537 so a 105 point drop is a -0.8% retreat. S&P futures are down -11, or -0.3%, about 3 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street for the Tuesday session. Nazzy futures are down -0.4%.

Bears also need weaker utilities. If you see utes rallying out of the gate today moving higher, the bears are likely cooked and the model will probably flip long today. If utes are drifting lower, and the NYA begins trending down towards the 12432, that is an extremely negative sign for the stock market in the near-term. If NYA loses 12432, the stock market will be in retreat. UTIL likely needs to drop below 795 to create a potential crash scenario for the US stock market. Weaker banks will also create market negativity. Bears need XLF below 23.64 which would immediately create significant selling pressure for equities.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The bulls have it on a silver platter; all they need is about +8 to +18 points in the S&P 500 and they will likely flip the quant long. Bears will throw confetti if the NYA loses 12432. If NYA remains bullish, and the SPX cannot achieve the upside shown, status quo, stocks will chop sideways. The price action remains erratic and unstable and just plain odd.

8/9/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/7/20; 9:00 AM EST =

8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +53; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short

7/31/20; 3:59 PM EST = +53; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short in this period of market insanity. The price action is erratic, unstable and all over the map. Machines are trading against machines. The bulls had it on a silver platter Friday morning but the one thing occurred which is not good for them; the gap-up open. That resulted in a flame-out and then the bears ruled the day, until the last 90 minutes when the Fed panicked as usual and stepped in to crush volatility's neck with its jackboots. The VIX collapses and stocks shoot to the moon into the closing bell.

Both the critical NYA index and the utilities failed Friday morning. No doubt Powell likely called an emergency internal meeting to address the situation; the Fed has smart technicians working for them. The NYA and UTIL not only signaled trouble for the Friday session but more importantly, trouble for the stock market into year-end. Utes were then goosed higher which reinforced the upside move into the bell. Comically, the NYA crosses above the critical 12452 bull-bear line in the sand during the last minute of trading. It's just another day in the corrupt and rigged crony capitalism system.

So the quant is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 15 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. If the final and high SPX print would have occurred a few minutes earlier, Keybot would likely be long right now.

Thus, the opening bell on Monday morning should be quite fascinating. Again, the bulls have it on a silver platter and only need a point higher in the SPX to likely flip the model long, however, a gap-up open is not helpful for bulls. Bears simply need NYA back below 12452 which would immediately end the bullish joy. SPX 3272 (for happy bulls) and NYA 12452 (for happy bears) are the only two things that matter come Monday morning. Commodities will also be in play during the session so watch the GTX 1691 bull-bear line in the sand.

July trading is in the bag (EOM) and August trading begins Monday. The price action is historic these days. The choppy whipsaw action continues chewing up bulls and bears alike.

8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

7/31/20; 3:59 PM EST = +53; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short

7/31/20; 3:24 PM EST = +39; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short

7/31/20; 11:37 AM EST = +23; signal line is +39

7/31/20; 10:12 AM EST = +39; signal line is +41

7/31/20; 10:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short

7/30/20; 2:42 PM EST = +53; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short