STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side as Fed Chairman Powell tap dances all day. The quant spits out 4 numbers today. Banks were active but when it was done preferred the bear camp.

Bears need weaker chips, for SOX to fall under 3213, or they got nothing. The bears are trying to chip away Little By Little, as Susan plays.

Bulls need stronger utes and banks, and lower volatility, UTIL above 923.71 and XLF above 36.47, and VIX below 17.56, respectively. Any 1 of the 3 turning bullish will immediately stop all selling in the stock market and a rally will begin. The rally will gain strength if 1 of the other 2, or both, also turn bullish. 

Since the banks were in the limelight today, you have to figure they will lead the stock market move directional move tomorrow. XLF is at 36.41 only 6 pennies on the bear side of the line in the sand at 36.47 so watch the pre-market. This will tell you a lot. Also, the VIX trades at 3 AM EST and if it drops below 17.56, the bulls will rule on Thursday. 

8/1/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/21; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/21; 3:54 PM EST = +44; signal line is +54
7/28/21; 2:40 PM EST = +60; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short
7/28/21; 9:56 AM EST = +44; signal line is +54
7/28/21; 9:37 AM EST = +60; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
7/27/21; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips short yesterday morning at SPX 4395. Volatility is higher, utes have failed albeit barely now, chips failed but recovered and banks failed and almost recovered. In other words, it is a crap-shoot. Mix the Federal Reserve into the market soup today and it is anyone's game.

If UTIL remains below 923.71, and XLF below 36.47, and VIX above 17.55, stocks will weaken. If SOX loses 3211.30, stocks will take a strong leg lower.

If the semiconductors remain bullish and any of the other three other parameters turn bullish, stocks are off to the races higher and the up move can be gauged by the remaining two parameters flipping bullish, or not.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading both gain a little over a percent. On the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +17% at record highs, the algo program is up +16% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +24%. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters SH. Today we see what the bears got.

8/1/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/21; 10:00 AM EST =
7/27/21; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +53
7/27/21; 12:10 PM EST = +28; signal line is +52
7/27/21; 10:38 AM EST = +44; signal line is +53
7/27/21; 10:29 AM EST = +60; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains short
7/27/21; 10:17 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50; go short 4395; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +17.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +16.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2021 = +23.7%)
7/27/21; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
7/26/21; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
7/26/21; 3:06 AM EST = +60; signal line is +48
7/25/21; 7:00 PM EST = +74; signal line is +46
7/23/21; 11:59 AM EST = +74; signal line is +44
7/23/21; 9:51 AM EST = +58; signal line is +42
7/23/21; 9:36 AM EST = +74; signal line is +39
7/22/21; 3:59 PM EST = +58; signal line is +37
7/22/21; 3:37 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
7/22/21; 1:36 PM EST = +58; signal line is +36
7/22/21; 11:38 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
7/22/21; 10:42 AM EST = +58; signal line is +36
7/22/21; 9:37 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
7/22/21; 8:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
7/22/21; 3:44 AM EST = +74; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 11:21 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 11:04 AM EST = +44; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 10:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 10:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +38
7/21/21; 9:52 AM EST = +60; signal line is +39
7/21/21; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39; go long 4344; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.1%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2021 = +22.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday after the opening bell at SPX 4344. Stocks fell apart on Monday but recover the last couple days as the dip buyers jump into action waving the Federal Reserve and Congressional stimulus banners. Bulls are cruising with the algo number 37 points above the signal line, however, the quant may flip back to the short side at anytime. The robot knew this choppy slop was coming.

Stocks go up if VIX remains below 17.74.  Stocks go up if XLF remains above 36.52. Bulls need about a +1.7% pop in copper futures to create more upside in the stock market. Copper is up +0.9% right now so the bulls need to keep pushing the red metal higher if they want the rally to continue. Stocks will fall apart if volatility and banks turn negative.

The quant flips twice in the SPX 4344-4349 range. Write this down since the robot considers this level to be important for some reason.

Watch the utilities closely since an epic signal may be forming. UTIL is at 892.29 and must remain above 891.67 this week to keep the stock market rally alive. Stocks will soften if UTIL 891.67 fails. Further, for next week, UTIL must be above 923.71 so the bulls have a heck of a lot of work to do in 2 days. By 4 PM EST Friday, bulls need UTIL above 924 which is 32 big points above current levels. Can the bulls do it? If you see utilities rallying big the next couple days, the stock market will likely remain elevated at record levels for another month or two. If UTIL is unable to get to 924 by the end of trading Friday, there will be Hell to pay next week. If UTIL falls below 866, it is likely the stock market will crash.

On the last trade, which only danced for a week, another flat move occurs. On the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +16%, the quant program is up +15% and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is up +22%. Keybot the Quant exits SH and enters SPY remaining in the 1x ETF's until the whipsaw timer expires which is Friday the 13th. Stocks are in the choppy slop pattern.

Volatility, banks, copper and utilities are controlling broad stock market direction currently. Nothing else matters as Metallica sings.

7/25/21; 7:00 PM EST =
7/22/21; 3:44 AM EST = +74; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 11:21 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 11:04 AM EST = +44; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 10:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
7/21/21; 10:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +38
7/21/21; 9:52 AM EST = +60; signal line is +39
7/21/21; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39; go long 4344; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.1%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2021 = +22.4%)
7/20/21; 3:59 PM EST = +28; signal line is +40
7/20/21; 2:30 PM EST = +44; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains short
7/20/21; 1:09 PM EST = +28; signal line is +43
7/20/21; 12:55 PM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
7/20/21; 9:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +44
7/20/21; 9:39 AM EST = +14; signal line is +45
7/20/21; 9:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +47
7/19/21; 3:47 PM EST = +28; signal line is +48
7/19/21; 3:10 PM EST = +14; signal line is +47
7/19/21; 2:54 PM EST = -2; signal line is +48
7/19/21; 2:42 PM EST = +14; signal line is +50
7/19/21; 1:36 PM EST = +12; signal line is +52
7/19/21; 1:34 PM EST = -2; signal line is +54
7/19/21; 1:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +57
7/19/21; 3:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +59
7/18/21; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +61
7/16/21; 10:14 AM EST = +42; signal line is +62
7/16/21; 10:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +63
7/16/21; 9:42 AM EST = +60; signal line is +64
7/15/21; 3:59 PM EST = +76; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
7/15/21; 1:32 PM EST = +60; signal line is +63; go short 4349; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2021 = +22.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and chips fail. This creates the additional weakness in the stock market. Bears next have their eyes on volatility trying to remove the Federal Reserve's jackboots off the throat of Uncle Vix.

If SOX recovers above 3205, she's coming back up for the pulse right now, stocks will recover. If SOX remains sub 3205 and VIX moves above 18.05, the stock market will fall apart.

7/18/21; 7:00 PM EST =
7/16/21; 10:14 AM EST = +42; signal line is +62
7/16/21; 10:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side on Thursday afternoon at SPX 4349. The chop suey continues with markets unsure which way they want to break. The Fed keeps pumping. 

Banks and semiconductors are running the show. XLF above 36.60 and stocks recover. SOX below 3200 and another leg down in equities occurs.

On the last trade that ran for almost a week, the algo program and the actual trading generated by the quant is dead flat. On the year, the benchmark SPX is up almost +16%, the quant program is up +15% and the actual trading up +22%. Keybot exited SPY and entered SH.

7/16/21; 10:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +63
7/16/21; 9:42 AM EST = +60; signal line is +64
7/15/21; 3:59 PM EST = +76; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
7/15/21; 1:32 PM EST = +60; signal line is +63; go short 4349; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2021 = +22.3%)
7/15/21; 10:02 AM EST = +76; signal line is +62
7/15/21; 7:35 AM EST = +46; signal line is +59 but algorithm remains long
7/14/21; 10:02 AM EST = +60; signal line is +59
7/13/21; 1:26 PM EST = +76; signal line is +58
7/13/21; 12:22 PM EST = +60; signal line is +55
7/13/21; 12:04 PM EST = +76; signal line is +54
7/13/21; 10:50 AM EST = +60; signal line is +53
7/11/21; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +52
7/9/21; 2:12 PM EST = +76; signal line is +51
7/9/21; 9:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50; go long 4345; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.0%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2021 = +22.2%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side today. Yesterday morning, the quant flips short and this morning long so Monday morning short again? Anything is possible. Volatility has dictated market direction the last 2 days. The Fed kept its jackboots on the throat of volatility all day to provide lift to the stock market and then the banks were pumped after the announcement that more money-printing will continue forever.

On the last trade which only ran for a day, the quant program loses -0.6% and the actual trading loses about -2%. The flip is quantified as a whipsaw by the robot so the program drops into single ETF mode. Stocks are likely going into a sideways choppy slop pattern that will chew-up bulls and bears alike. Chop suey. Keybot exits SDS and enters SPY. On the year, the benchmark SPX is up almost +16%, the quant program is up +15% and the actual trading generated by the robot is up +22% in 2021.

For next week, it is copper, banks and volatility controlling market direction. If copper futures are up overnight Sunday, stocks will keep rallying. Flat or lower copper futures will keep the bears in the game and hint that a flat or lower stock market is ahead for Monday. VIX above 18.61 or XLF below 36.58 will create stock market trouble. A leg down occurs in stocks if one parameter fails but if both volatility spikes and banks fail, the stock market will accelerate lower. UTIL must remain above 880 all next week or that spells trouble.

7/18/21; 7:00 PM EST =
7/16/21; 10:00 AM EST =
7/11/21; 7:00 PM EST =
7/9/21; 2:12 PM EST = +76; signal line is +51
7/9/21; 9:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50; go long 4345; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.0%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2021 = +22.2%)
7/9/21; 3:06 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains short
7/8/21; 2:13 PM EST = +46; signal line is +50
7/8/21; 11:44 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains short
7/8/21; 10:07 AM EST = +46; signal line is +50
7/8/21; 9:38 AM EST = +30; signal line is +51
7/8/21; 9:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +52; go short 4321; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.6%)(Actual results this trade = +5.0%; Actual results for 2021 = +24.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at yesterday's opening bell and is now champing at the bit to flip back to the long side.

On the last trade that ran for about 2-1/2 weeks, the algo program gains about +3% and the actual trading gains +5%. For the year thus far, the S&P 500, SPX, the US stock market, is up almost +16%, the quant program is up +15% and the actual trading is up over +24% with one-half the year over. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS.

If VIX is below 18.69, like this minute, stocks and futures go up. If VIX is above 18.69, stocks will fall apart. If SOX loses 3192, the stock market will take a drastic leg lower.

7/11/21; 7:00 PM EST =
7/9/21; 3:06 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains short
7/8/21; 2:13 PM EST = +46; signal line is +50
7/8/21; 11:44 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains short
7/8/21; 10:07 AM EST = +46; signal line is +50
7/8/21; 9:38 AM EST = +30; signal line is +51
7/8/21; 9:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +52; go short 4321; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.6%)(Actual results this trade = +5.0%; Actual results for 2021 = +24.1%)
7/8/21; 4:03 AM EST = +46; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
7/6/21; 9:41 AM EST = +60; signal line is +53
7/4/21; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +52
7/2/21; 9:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +52
6/30/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +76; signal line is +52
6/29/21; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +52
6/27/21; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +52
6/25/21; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +51
6/24/21; 1:06 PM EST = +75; signal line is +51
6/21/21; 10:08 AM EST = +59; signal line is +52; go long 4201; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +11.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +12.7%)(Actual results this trade = +0.8%; Actual results for 2021 = +19.1%)