STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short yesterday afternoon during the market selloff at SPX 4023. Utes, commodities and the SPX index are in the bear camp creating stock market negativity.

Bulls need either SPX above 4038, GTX above 3500 and/or UTIL above 979.20. Any one of these turning bullish will stop the downward slide in stocks. The SPX begins at 4018 and is the most likely to turn bullish first but S&P futures are down -20 points about 3 hours before the opening bell.

On the last trade, that ran for the month of January, the benchmark SPX, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program, and the actual trading generated by the quant, are each up about +5% on the year thus far. Keybot exits SPY and enters SDS. The whipsaw timer expires so the quant is back into the leveraged 2x ETF's.

SPX 4037-4040 tells the market story this week as the Fed plays out tomorrow and the Monthly Jobs Report on Friday morning. There may be some whipsaw action ahead.

2/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/3/23; 9:00 AM EST =
1/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/31/23; 10:00 AM EST =
1/30/23; 2:52 PM EST = +32; signal line is +37; go short 4023; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +4.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +4.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +4.8%)(Actual results this trade = +4.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +4.7%)
1/30/23; 1:36 PM EST = +32; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
1/30/23; 1:21 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
1/30/23; 12:52 PM EST = +32; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
1/30/23; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40
1/29/23; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +40
1/27/23; 2:02 PM EST = +60; signal line is +39
1/27/23; 12:28 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
1/27/23; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +39
1/26/23; 1:43 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
1/26/23; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37
1/26/23; 9:38 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
1/25/23; 11:25 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36
1/25/23; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
1/22/23; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +34
1/20/23; 2:10 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32
1/19/23; 12:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:38 AM EST = +14; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:23 AM EST = +0; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:22 AM EST = +14; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:14 AM EST = +30; signal line is +29
1/19/23; 10:48 AM EST = +14; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 10:07 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25
1/19/23; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22
1/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +21
1/18/23; 2:16 PM EST = +32; signal line is +19
1/18/23; 11:13 AM EST = +46; signal line is +17
1/17/23; 2:20 PM EST = +62; signal line is +13
1/17/23; 12:30 PM EST = +48; signal line is +10
1/17/23; 9:36 AM EST = +62; signal line is +7
1/15/23; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +5
1/13/23; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +3
1/10/23; 10:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +0
1/9/23; 3:30 PM EST = +32; signal line is -3
1/9/23; 10:21 AM EST = +48; signal line is -5
1/9/23; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is -8
1/8/23; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is -10
1/6/23; 12:58 PM EST = +48; signal line is -12
1/6/23; 10:40 AM EST = +32; signal line is -15
1/6/23; 10:22 AM EST = +16; signal line is -17
1/6/23; 10:07 AM EST = +0; signal line is -18
1/6/23; 9:00 AM EST = -16; signal line is -19
1/5/23; 9:36 AM EST = -16; signal line is -19
1/4/23; 10:49 AM EST = +16; signal line is -19
1/4/23; 10:26 AM EST = +0; signal line is -21
1/4/23; 9:47 AM EST = +16; signal line is -22; go long 3841; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.1%; Actual results for 2023 = -0.1%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are slapping the bears silly. Bears capitulate covering their shorts sending stocks higher. The SPX blows up through the important 4037 line in the sand unleashing unlimited upside market joy. It is such an important number that there will be back tests from the top side for a few days, especially with the Fed on tap on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the bulls want to confirm a new cyclical bull market ahead and that occurs with the SPX closing above 4037 each day forward.

Commodities and utes are also in play. GTX is at 3507 and bears can stop the upside stock market rally if they push GTX below 3502 only 5 bucks away.

Utilities are creating negativity in the stock market and bulls must push UTIL above 978.256 to prove that the upside ahead for stocks will be euphoric. If UTIL fails to attain 978 in the week ahead, put your guard up. If UTIL drops in the days ahead and teases down towards 920, it tells you that the rally in stocks is getting old and will end anytime over the coming weeks and begin a long drop lower as well as opening the door to a potential crash scenario.

For now, as long as SPX is above 4037 and GTX above 3502, the bulls are grinning ear to ear.

Keybot prints 3 pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning, the second on Tuesday evening to mark the EOM and the third on Friday morning before the opening bell for the regular session.

If SPX and GTX both turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play and the quant will likely flip short.

2/5/23; 7:00 PM EST =
2/3/23; 9:00 AM EST =
1/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/31/23; 10:00 AM EST =
1/29/23; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +40
1/27/23; 2:02 PM EST = +60; signal line is +39
1/27/23; 12:28 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
1/27/23; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +39
1/26/23; 1:43 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
1/26/23; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37
1/26/23; 9:38 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
1/25/23; 11:25 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the choppiness. Bulls need SPX above 4037 to confirm upside euphoria ahead.

Bears need to push GTX below 3504 and/or RTH below 163.15. If either one turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 3949, the quant will likely flip short. This does not appear on the docket, however, with S&P futures up +10 about 3 hours before the opening bell. 

If SPX cannot move above 4037 and if GTX and RTH remain bullish, the stock market will churn along with choppy slop and an upward bias. One of these will flinch perhaps before the week ends.

1/29/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/27/23; 10:00 AM EST =
1/25/23; 11:25 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36
1/25/23; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
1/22/23; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Hump day is a battle of commodities versus the SPX index.

Bulls need SPX above 4037 (now at 4017) to create strong bullishness for stocks going forward. It tested on Monday so there will probably be other tests in the days ahead.

Bears need GTX below 3504 (now at 3525) to stop the upside rally and introduce negativity into the stock market. If GTX fails at 3504, and the SPX is dropping below 3990, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Thus, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play if GTX fails.

S&P futures are down -31 points about 3 hours before the opening bell in the States for the regular trading session. Bears need a 27-point drop so they may growl strongly today. After a few minutes of trading after the opening bell, watch to see if the S&P 500 is down less than 27 points or more than 27 points.

1/29/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/27/23; 10:00 AM EST =
1/22/23; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The current battle is retail stocks and banks versus utes and the SPX.

Bulls need either UTIL above 977.80 and/or SPX above 4035 to keep the upside party going. If the SPX moves above 4030-4040, it is a game-changer since the stock market will be signaling a cyclical bull market ahead. It is logical that SPX price will probably migrate higher to test the critical 4030-4040 resistance where a bounce of die decision will be made and impact the stock market for the entire year forward.

Bears need RTH below 163.01 and/or XLF below 34.70 to create market weakness. The quant likely needs to see one of these two parameters turn bearish and the SPX to drop below 3898 to flip short today. If either parameter drops below the bull/bear line in the sand, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play for the quant.

1/29/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/27/23; 10:00 AM EST =
1/22/23; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +34
1/20/23; 2:10 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32
1/19/23; 12:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long with the stock market direction a coin flip. Bulls need UTIL above 977.30 and RTH above 163.01 so they have some work to do.

Bears need GTX below 3498 and XLF below 34.66. GTX is at 3508 and XLF ends yesterday at 34.80. It is all about commodities and the banks. If either one turns bearish, stocks are going to take a big dip lower and the bears will gain stronger control to the downside. Watch for a jog move where one of the parameters will drop below the line in the sand but then pop back above for a short while, then drop below again; this will likely tell you the turn lower is at hand.

If either GTX loses 3498, or XLF loses 34.66, and the SPX drops below 3886 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

Bulls must hold the line with the commodities and banks. XLF is trading a touch soft in the pre-market at 34.77; bears need another 11 pennies lower to begin growling loudly.

1/22/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/19/23; 12:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:38 AM EST = +14; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as a crazy week is off and stumbling. The quant has printed 10 numbers today alone and another hour of trading remains. The bulls and bears are battling on the tightrope with the algo number and signal line both at +30. Flip a coin.

Stock market direction is dictated by commodities and banks in the bull camp and utes and retail stocks in the bear camp. One of them will flinch and determine the direction ahead.

Bears need GTX under 3497 and XLF under 34.66 to create market carnage.

Bulls need UTIL above 977 and RTH above 163.01 to signal the all-clear for more upside with stocks.

Banks pop this afternoon with XLF up to 34.94. Watch GTX 3497 and RTH 163.01. The commodities and retail stocks will likely identify the winner going forward. For now, the battle continues and it is a Mexican standoff. One of them will flinch.

1/22/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/19/23; 12:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:38 AM EST = +14; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:23 AM EST = +0; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:22 AM EST = +14; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 11:14 AM EST = +30; signal line is +29
1/19/23; 10:48 AM EST = +14; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 10:07 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25
1/19/23; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
1/19/23; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22
1/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +21
1/18/23; 2:16 PM EST = +32; signal line is +19
1/18/23; 11:13 AM EST = +46; signal line is +17
1/17/23; 2:20 PM EST = +62; signal line is +13
1/17/23; 12:30 PM EST = +48; signal line is +10
1/17/23; 9:36 AM EST = +62; signal line is +7
1/15/23; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +5

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long in lazy trading last week. There must be a lot of traders home nursing eggnog hangovers still yet. The algo number remain 43 points above the signal line so the bulls are cruising the stock market highway without a care in the world.

The battle for stock market direction to start the holiday-shortened week will be decided between the utes and the commodities and SPX.

Bulls need either GTX above 3498 and/or SPX above 4037. Either one will create a big upside rally and both will create a bullish orgy so obscene it will make Caligula blush.

Bears need UTIL below 977 to officially stop the upside path and introduce some market negativity.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Thursday morning.

1/22/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/19/23; 9:00 AM EST =
1/15/23; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +5
1/13/23; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +3
1/10/23; 10:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +0
1/9/23; 3:30 PM EST = +32; signal line is -3
1/9/23; 10:21 AM EST = +48; signal line is -5
1/9/23; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is -8
1/8/23; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is -10

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Friday was a bull orgy with utilities, retail stocks and chips rallying sending the broad stock market significantly higher the SPX at 3900-ish. The bulls are cruising with their feet up on the dashboard since the algo number is 58 points above the signal line.

Friday was the Mexican standoff and the bulls win big. The bulls have to boost commodities and the SPX index to prove that the upside will sustain for many weeks. Bulls need GTX above 3500 and SPX above 4030 to create big upside in stocks.

Bears need weaker chips and retail stocks to stop the upside rally. Bears need RTH below 162 and SOX below 2596. LULU rips her yoga pants after bending over due to eating all the holiday treats and cookies over the last month. The sports retailers are sinking in the pre-market (NKE, UA, etc....) which will make RTH soggy.

The bulls do not have a care in the world sitting back expecting more upside.

1/15/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/13/23; 10:00 AM EST =
1/8/23; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is -10
1/6/23; 12:58 PM EST = +48; signal line is -12
1/6/23; 10:40 AM EST = +32; signal line is -15
1/6/23; 10:22 AM EST = +16; signal line is -17
1/6/23; 10:07 AM EST = +0; signal line is -18
1/6/23; 9:00 AM EST = -16; signal line is -19
1/5/23; 9:36 AM EST = -16; signal line is -19

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after another day of choppy drama with the US Monthly Jobs Report on tap at 8:30 AM EST about 15 hours away. Utilities took the pipe out of the gate this morning. The algo number drops 32 points from a positive 16 to a negative 16 in 6 minutes but it remains above the signal line albeit by only 3 measly points. Things change quickly in these fast-moving chop-suey markets.

Copper is strong ditto the NYA index so today may have been a bear trap. The jobs report may send stocks crazy in one direction or another tomorrow morning. The quant is now tracking banks with interest.

Bears need weaker banks and a lower NYA index to flip the model short. Bulls need to pump utes and chips higher to signal the all-clear for stock market upside.

The bulls have a wild card ace up their sleeve. The UTIL 978.52 parameter disappears and is replaced with 888 for all of next week so the bulls will easily receive juice next week with UTIL above 888. At the same time, UTIL 975.90 remains as another important bull/bear line in the sand. If UTIL finishes tomorrow above 975.90, the stock market is going to rally big into next week.

Bulls need UTIL above 975.90 which will immediately stop the broad market selling and 978.52 would unleash a strong upside rally. Bulls also need SOX above 2595 which will create a big up-leg in the stock market.

Bears need XLF below 34.15 (now at 34.61) which will unleash downside action in the US stock market. Watch this one in the pre-market. Of course, if banks are positive after the jobs report, it likely means party time for bulls on Friday and a big upside rally in stocks.

If XLF loses 34.15, or if NYA loses 15073, either one would do, and the SPX drops below 3802 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

Watch UTIL 975.90 and XLF 34.15 and you will know what direction the stock market is headed. 

1/8/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/6/23; 9:00 AM EST =
1/5/23; 9:36 AM EST = -16; signal line is -19
1/4/23; 10:49 AM EST = +16; signal line is -19

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as chips remain in the bear camp and copper and utes in the bull camp.

The bulls are cruising with the algo number 35 points above the signal line. Bulls need SOX above 2597 (now at 2547) to create a wild upside orgy of stock buying.

Bears need to pull CPER below 22.57 and/or UTIL below 978.52 to stop the upside rally and introduce market negativity. The three parameters are at a Mexican standoff this afternoon so tomorrow will tell the tale of which one flinches.

CPER begins at 22.66 so if you are watching the copper futures overnight, the bears need a -0.4% drop in copper and that will be enough for the stock market to be flat or negative tomorrow. Of course, copper down a lesser amount, or if it is positive overnight, will indicate that the bulls are going to pump stocks higher.

UTIL begins tomorrow at 980 so things can fall apart quickly if the bulls do not show up with their A game. It is an extremely big deal that UTIL is above 978.52 and 975.90. Watch these numbers like a hawk since they tell you how weak or strong the stock market is going forward. If UTIL remains above 975.90 into the weekend, it foretells good things for the stock market next week (bullish).

So that is the battle. You do not have to watch any of the indexes. Simply watch chips, copper and utes and that will tell you the direction of the US stock market going forward.

1/8/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/6/23; 9:00 AM EST =
1/4/23; 10:49 AM EST = +16; signal line is -19

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side to begin the new year at SPX 3841 a couple hours ago. It's upside orgy time. Utilities jump higher waving the bull banner. The NYA index is higher pointing to upside joy ahead. Copper rallied, then fell today testing a critical bull/bear level in the sand, CPER 22.57, but is bouncing now at 22.70. The bulls cheer and are now cruising along with the algo number 35 points above the signal line.

With utes jumping into the bull camp and copper remaining bullish, at least for now, the chips are the next domino to fall into place. Keybot is tracking SOX 2598 and price is at 2571. Watch this like a hawk because if the socks move above 2598, stocks will catapult higher. Shorts will cover and the rally be massive.

The stage is set. Keybot the Quant is long. Utilities add strong bull fuel as long as UTIL remains above 978. Bears need CPER to fall through 22.57 to usher in market negativity. Bulls need SOX above 2598 as a signal to buy with both fists into a market that is going to rally big. Choose your poison.

On the last trade, which started a couple days before the year ended, and then the robot was rezeroed, the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant starts the year off flat. Keybot exits SH and enters SPY remaining in the 1x ETF's during January until the whipsaw timer expires (at month-end).

Now we see if the bulls have game or if it is bluster. SOX 2598 provides that answer. In the time these extra windbag sentences are typed, SOX is now up to 2577 only 21 points from declaring complete bull victory ahead. SPX is above 3871 at highs of day.

1/8/23; 7:00 PM EST =
1/6/23; 9:00 AM EST =
1/4/23; 10:49 AM EST = +16; signal line is -19
1/4/23; 10:26 AM EST = +0; signal line is -21
1/4/23; 9:47 AM EST = +16; signal line is -22; go long 3841; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.1%; Actual results for 2023 = -0.1%)
1/4/23; 9:41 AM EST = +0; signal line is -23 but algorithm remains short
1/3/23; 2:49 PM EST = -16; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
1/3/23; 2:37 PM EST = -30; signal line is -25
1/3/23; 1:09 PM EST = -16; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
1/3/23; 12:51 PM EST = -30; signal line is -25
1/1/23; Begin 2023 Data = -16; signal line is -25; go short 3840; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.0%)