STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT-- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short spitting out 7 numbers on Friday including the pre-scheduled number. The bears remain in charge of stock market direction but the algo number is only 8 measly points below the signal line. The caution flag is out and a boost to the utes on Monday would help the quant flip long.

Utilities failed on Friday once again opening the door to a major stock market crash ahead that can begin at any time over the coming days and few weeks. The UTIL 960-962 bull/bear line in the sand must be a major focus for you this week since it tells you not only the short-term fate of stocks but also the intermediate and longer term.

Bulls desperately need UTIL above 962 or the stock market will deteriorate. Bears need UTIL to remain below 960 and trend lower which will usher-in pain and misery for the stock market.

Banks continue a whipsaw ride so watch the XLF 33.11 bull/bear line in the sand with price at 33.17 only 6 pennies away. As banks and utes go, so go the markets.

If UTIL regains 962 trending higher, it is likely that Keybot the Quant will follow and go long. If XLF loses 33.11, stocks will likely begin falling apart.

April is in the bag. Gone are the showers, now come the flowers; or will it be sorrows. May trading begins on Monday. May Day.

4/30/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/28/23; 3:12 PM EST = -5; signal line is +3
4/28/23; 2:49 PM EST = -21; signal line is +4
4/28/23; 1:06 PM EST = -5; signal line is +6
4/28/23; 12:10 PM EST = +11; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
4/28/23; 11:11 AM EST = -5; signal line is +9
4/28/23; 11:04 AM EST = -21; signal line is +10
4/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +13
4/27/23; 3:50 PM EST = -5; signal line is +15

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls stage a comeback rally. NYA recovers higher. Despite the upside euphoria, the only market parameter joining the bull camp is utilities, and that is tentative.

The bears remain in charge but the gap between the algo number and signal line shortens to 20 points. The previous post explains the utility drama. For next week, UTIL 961.35 and 960.60 are two key bull/bear lines in the sand. UTIL nudges higher yesterday to 963 to set themselves up for a happy week next week with the Fed on tap.

The importance of the UTIL 960-962 line in the sand cannot be overstated. It has a huge impact on stock market direction going forward. At the closing bell today, check to see where UTIL finishes since above 962 paints a happy picture for stocks next week but below 960 paints a troubling path forward for the US stock market.

Bulls obviously need to keep UTIL above 962 and moving higher to prove that they got game. In addition, bulls need stronger chips and banks, SOX above 3022 and XLF above 33.13, respectively, so watch these 2 parameters closely since they will likely indicate if the algo wants to flip long. If one of the 2 turn bullish, consider the caution flag to be out and if both turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play for the quant.

Utes, socks and banks will tell the story going into the Fed circus next week. Stocks are usually higher the day or two in front of the Fed meeting (Tuesday and Wednesday) and then markets will probably whipsaw and chop once Pope Powell decrees how traders should trade on hump day afternoon.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell. Today is the last trading day of April (EOM). May trading begins on Monday the fifth month of the year already.

4/30/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/28/23; 10:00 AM EST =
4/27/23; 3:50 PM EST = -5; signal line is +15
4/27/23; 3:38 PM EST = -21; signal line is +17
4/27/23; 3:03 PM EST = -5; signal line is +19
4/26/23; 11:57 AM EST = -21; signal line is +21

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears are cruising lower with the algo number 42 points below the signal line. Utilities have failed again placing the broad US stock market back into a major crash profile going forward over the coming weeks.

Bulls need UTIL above 961.65 pronto or stock market conditions will deteriorate.

The quant is tracking NYA 15155 as an important bull/bear line in the sand. Price is at 15229 likely coming down for a test. This action will tell you a lot. If NYA fails at 15155, it is saying that the US stock market is in major trouble and a significant crash is on the come.

If NYA comes down to 15155 and bounces, or bounces from current levels, the bears can be kept at bay for a while longer but only if the bulls then push UTIL back above 961.65. High drama.

4/30/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/28/23; 10:00 AM EST =
4/26/23; 11:57 AM EST = -21; signal line is +21
4/26/23; 10:56 AM EST = -5; signal line is +24
4/26/23; 9:58 AM EST = -21; signal line is +26
4/25/23; 10:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 34 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising with banks failing yesterday.

Bears need NYA below 15158 to kick-in serious downside for stocks. Watch this number closely over the coming days. If the NYA comes down to 15158 and bounces, stocks may remain buoyant for a few more weeks. If NYA fails at 15158, it is all over but the crying (for bulls).

SPX 3967, call it 3963-3967, is another key bull/bear line in the sand. Utilities recovered so the major crash profile is back off the table for now, but if the S&P 500 loses 3963-3967, only about 100 points lower, you will see bloody carnage begin on Wall and Broad.

Bulls need stronger banks, chips, utes, copper and commodities to right the ship but these parameters are all sitting in the penalty box currently.

4/30/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/28/23; 10:00 AM EST =
4/25/23; 10:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +29
4/25/23; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +30
4/24/23; 3:15 PM EST = +12; signal line is +31

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 19 points below the signal line. The banks are sending the stock market to and fro to begin the week. As the banks go, so go the markets. The XLF bull/bear line in the sand is at 33.13 with price at 33.14 creating a smidgeon of bullishness in the stock market. Stocks will weaken if XLF drops below 33.13.

In general, bears need weaker banks and utilities and higher volatility to gain traction to the downside.

Bulls need stronger banks, utes, copper and commodities. Copper futures are selling off today.

The caution flag remains out but if XLF drops below 33.13, it can be removed. Hello. XLF is trading at 32.85 in the pre-market about 4 hours before the opening bell. The bears are growling. S&P futures are off -21 points. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM EST. 

4/30/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/28/23; 10:00 AM EST =
4/25/23; 10:00 AM EST =
4/24/23; 3:15 PM EST = +12; signal line is +31
4/24/23; 2:12 PM EST = -4; signal line is +31
4/24/23; 1:26 PM EST = +12; signal line is +32
4/24/23; 11:14 AM EST = -4; signal line is +33
4/23/23; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +34
4/21/23; 9:53 AM EST = +12; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the bears beginning to put some meat on the bones. The algo number is 23 points below the signal line so the bears are clawing and lashing-down at the bulls drawing blood on Wall Street.

Chips failed. Banks also failed but recovered. These parameters tell you the stock market direction story to start next week.

Bulls need SOX above 3034 pronto or they are toast. Bears need XLF below 33.10 if they want to create mayhem and carnage in the stock market. One of them will flinch. If not, stocks will stumble and stagger sideways until one of the two parameters blinks.

For now, the caution flag remains out but if the banks/financials (XLF) turn negative, the caution will be dropped from the title line and the bears will be cruising lower.

4/30/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/28/23; 10:00 AM EST =
4/25/23; 10:00 AM EST =
4/23/23; 7:00 PM EST =
4/21/23; 9:53 AM EST = +12; signal line is +35
4/21/23; 9:44 AM EST = -4; signal line is +35
4/21/23; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +36
4/20/23; 3:16 PM EST = +28; signal line is +36; go short 4118; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +7.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +6.5%; Actual results for 2023 = +4.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips bearish yesterday afternoon at SPX 4118. Copper and commodities fail creating stock market negativity. The bears are in charge but the algo number is only 8 points below the signal line so the bears need to put more meat on the table.

Bulls need UTIL above 981, CPER above 24.62 and/or GTX above 3382 to stop the market downslide. Did you see CPER seek the number that the quant told you would occur before it happened? If you are not impressed, you should be.

Bears need UTIL below 961.93, SOX below 3036 and/or XLF below 33.10 to create market carnage.

Copper futures are down -0.4% so the bears are smiling wanting to keep CPER in their camp. Watch chips closely since they are battling at the bull/bear line in the sand. SMH is down -0.4% in the pre-market so the SOX should begin soggy making the bears smile again.

Bulls need stronger utilities, copper and commodities while bears need weaker utes, chips and banks. These parameters are all that matter currently.

On the last trade, that ran for about 3 weeks, the quant program gains +3.4% and the actual trading gains +6.5%. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up a healthy +7.2%. The Keybot the Quant program is up a percent this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +4% in 2023. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's. 

4/23/23; 7:00 PM EST =
4/20/23; 3:16 PM EST = +28; signal line is +36; go short 4118; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +7.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +6.5%; Actual results for 2023 = +4.2%)
4/20/23; 2:44 PM EST = +28; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/20/23; 2:11 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
4/20/23; 2:04 PM EST = +28; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/20/23; 1:46 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
4/20/23; 1:35 PM EST = +28; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
4/20/23; 12:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
4/20/23; 12:16 PM EST = +28; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
4/20/23; 9:47 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
4/20/23; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/19/23; 12:13 PM EST = +58; signal line is +36
4/19/23; 11:28 AM EST = +42; signal line is +35
4/19/23; 10:45 AM EST = +58; signal line is +36
4/19/23; 10:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +35
4/19/23; 9:44 AM EST = +58; signal line is +36
4/18/23; 10:45 AM EST = +42; signal line is +35
4/18/23; 9:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +36
4/17/23; 3:59 PM EST = +58; signal line is +35
4/17/23; 3:07 PM EST = +42; signal line is +35
4/17/23; 2:46 PM EST = +26; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 11:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 11:34 AM EST = +26; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 11:11 AM EST = +42; signal line is +35
4/17/23; 11:03 AM EST = +26; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 10:51 AM EST = +26; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 10:44 AM EST = +10; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 10:18 AM EST = +26; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 9:58 AM EST = +26; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 9:46 AM EST = +42; signal line is +37
4/16/23; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
4/14/23; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/14/23; 9:56 AM EST = +26; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/14/23; 9:48 AM EST = +42; signal line is +36
4/14/23; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
4/13/23; 9:45 AM EST = +58; signal line is +34
4/12/23; 3:59 PM EST = +42; signal line is +32
4/12/23; 3:17 PM EST = +26; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
4/12/23; 3:16 PM EST = +42; signal line is +29
4/12/23; 3:01 PM EST = +58; signal line is +27
4/12/23; 2:54 PM EST = +42; signal line is +23
4/11/23; 12:18 PM EST = +58; signal line is +20
4/11/23; 11:58 PM EST = +42; signal line is +17
4/11/23; 9:54 AM EST = +58; signal line is +15
4/11/23; 9:46 AM EST = +42; signal line is +12
4/11/23; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +10
4/10/23; 12:57 PM EST = +42; signal line is +7
4/10/23; 11:43 AM EST = +26; signal line is +3
4/10/23; 9:43 AM EST = +10; signal line is +1
4/10/23; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is -1
4/9/23; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is -3
4/7/23; 9:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is -6
4/6/23; 2:17 PM EST = +42; signal line is -8
4/6/23; 2:05 PM EST = +26; signal line is -11
4/6/23; 12:15 PM EST = +42; signal line is -13
4/6/23; 11:37 AM EST = +26; signal line is -15
4/6/23; 11:07 AM EST = +10; signal line is -17
4/6/23; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is -18
4/4/23; 9:37 AM EST = +10; signal line is -20
4/3/23; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is -21
4/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +12; signal line is -23
3/31/23; 10:00 AM EST = +12; signal line is -24
3/30/23; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is -26
3/29/23; 11:37 AM EST = -4; signal line is -27
3/29/23; 11:03 AM EST = -18; signal line is -29
3/29/23; 9:57 AM EST = -4; signal line is -31
3/28/23; 2:48 PM EST = -18; signal line is -33
3/28/23; 2:21 PM EST = -32; signal line is -34
3/28/23; 1:46 PM EST = -46; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains long
3/28/23; 1:40 PM EST = -32; signal line is -36
3/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is -36
3/27/23; 1:28 PM EST = -17; signal line is -38; go long 3984; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +3.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -2.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market circus continues. Chips failed (and recovered) but the bulls outsmarted the bears pumping utilities higher. Utes, chips, banks and copper are controlling stock market direction.

Bulls need UTIL above 981.27 to create a new and very strong leg higher in stocks.

Bears need to pull UTIL below 961.93, SOX below 3037.53, XLF below 33.10 and/or CPER below 24.62.

Bears need 2 of the 4 parameters to flip negative and then if the SPX is below 4134 and trending lower, Keybot the Quant would likely flip short.

The CPER 24.62 bull/bear line in the sand is only -1.1% away and copper futures are currently down -0.9% almost there. The stock market is on a knife edge right now. It is there if the bears want it.

The two parameters that would likely fail first are UTIL 961.93 and SOX 3037.53.

4/23/23; 7:00 PM EST =
4/19/23; 12:13 PM EST = +58; signal line is +36
4/19/23; 11:28 AM EST = +42; signal line is +35
4/19/23; 10:45 AM EST = +58; signal line is +36
4/19/23; 10:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +35
4/19/23; 9:44 AM EST = +58; signal line is +36
4/18/23; 10:45 AM EST = +42; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long with the algo number only 7 points above the signal line. The battle lines are clear as identified by the quant. Nothing Else Matters except utes, chips, banks and copper.

Utilities are in the bear camp while semi's, banks and copper are in the bull camp.

Bulls need UTIL above 961.93 (now at 959) and the upside in stocks will continue.

Bears need SOX below 3042, XLF below 33.10 and/or CPER below 24.62. If any one of the three turn bearish, and the SPX is under 4140 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

If 2 of the 3 turn negative, the downside in stocks is real and will hit hard. Mayhem and blood on Wall Street will occur if all 3 flip bearish. The CPER bull/bear line in the sand equates to a -1.7% drop in copper futures that are now trading down -1.3%. The bears are growling but not there yet.

SMH is taking the pipe in the pre-market down -1.5%. The SOX bull/bear line in the sand above represents a -1.2% drop in the chips so it looks like the semiconductors will fail after the opening bell.

The SPX begins at 4155. S&P futures are down -22 with the opening bell in the States less than 3 hours away. Thus, if the futures joy holds, the S&P 500 cash index will drop to 4133 so it looks like the bears want to flex their muscles today and try to flip the quant short but it is never over until the fat lady sings.

4/23/23; 7:00 PM EST =
4/18/23; 10:45 AM EST = +42; signal line is +35
4/18/23; 9:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long with the bull/bear battle continuing. The algo number is only 7 points above the signal line so the imminent turn to the short side remains in the title line. The stock market is a coin-flip.

The week is off to a crazy start with the quant spitting out 13 numbers yesterday and 2 so far today. It is bluster by the bears so far.

Stock market direction is controlled currently by utes, chips and banks while keeping a hairy eyeball on copper and commodities.

Bulls need higher utilities. Bulls need UTIL above 961.93 to stop the sogginess in the stock market and UTIL 981.27 will ignite an upside bull orgy in stocks.

Bears need to keep UTIL below 961.93 this week which is the current condition. At the same time, bears need to either push the SOX below 3041.40 or XLF below 33.09 and you will know immediately that stocks are headed south for real. Both would confirm extreme downside negativity underway.

If either semiconductors or banks jump into the bear camp at the levels shown, either one would do, and the SPX drops below 4123, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

UTIL is at 957 (creating bearishness in stocks), SOX is at 3074 (creating bullishness), XLF is 33.21 (creating bullishness) and the SPX is at 4143 (needs to drop 20 points today from the current level to flip the model short). If both the semi's and banks fail at the same time, Keybot may flip short right away since utes failed already today.

Watch utes, chips and banks; one of them will flinch and tell you the stock market direction ahead.

4/23/23; 7:00 PM EST =
4/18/23; 10:45 AM EST = +42; signal line is +35
4/18/23; 9:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +36
4/17/23; 3:59 PM EST = +58; signal line is +35
4/17/23; 3:07 PM EST = +42; signal line is +35
4/17/23; 2:46 PM EST = +26; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 11:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 11:34 AM EST = +26; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 11:11 AM EST = +42; signal line is +35
4/17/23; 11:03 AM EST = +26; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 10:51 AM EST = +26; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 10:44 AM EST = +10; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 10:18 AM EST = +26; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 9:58 AM EST = +26; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
4/17/23; 9:46 AM EST = +42; signal line is +37
4/16/23; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
4/14/23; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but champing at the bit to flip short with the algo number 10 points below the signal line. The internal parameters will not yet fully latch so the quant remains long. Utilities failed which is a bigtime bad omen going forward for stocks.

The imminent turn notation is in the title line since the bears only need the SPX to gradually and methodically trend lower to below 4113, and Keybot will likely flip short. The S&P 500 starts Monday morning at 4138 so bears need 25 points of negativity.

You saw that the pre-market bank bravado was misplaced. XLF jumped up to the 33.14 bull/bear line in the sand, hit its head, and collapsed. The bank earnings were positive and encouraging so it is a negative tell for the bulls to see that XLF could not achieve 33.14 and higher especially after touching the goal.

Retail Sales disappoint but RTH is still in the bull camp. Bears need RTH below 161.15 to growl strongly.

The utilities, banks, retail stocks and chips are all that matter; everything else is noise. Chips and retail stocks are bullish while banks and utes are bearish. One of these sides is going to flinch. Obviously, bulls need stronger banks and utes. Bears need weaker semiconductors and retail stocks.

The failure in utilities cannot be understated. It is a trap-door that opens for the US stock market. Bulls will need UTIL above 962.90 immediately after Monday's opening bell, otherwise, there will be Hell to pay going forward.

The exact bull/bear levels can be provided after the Sunday number if anyone is interested.

4/16/23; 7:00 PM EST =
4/14/23; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/14/23; 9:56 AM EST = +26; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/14/23; 9:48 AM EST = +42; signal line is +36
4/14/23; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
4/13/23; 9:45 AM EST = +58; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 24 points above the signal line. The bulls remain in control bringing retail stocks into their camp yesterday creating stock market strength. Bears need RTH below 161.10 or they got nothing. Retail Sales data is on tap.

Bank earnings are coming out this morning and JPM hits a homerun.  Bulls need XLF above 33.07 to create stock market strength (now at 32.56) so that is a +1.6% rise needed for bulls to throw confetti. Ha-ha. XLF pops in the pre-market on the happy JPM news to 33.06 so the bulls know what they need to do today.

Watch the utilities as previously explained. Bulls need UTIL above 981 by the closing bell today, otherwise, the US stock market will begin on a sour note next week.

What does all this mumbo jumbo mean? If bullish, you want XLF above 33.07, UTIL above 981 and RTH above 161.10 to puff your chest out and celebrate. RTH is already above so bulls need to pump banks and utes today.

If bearish, you want XLF to not move above 33.07. This will be a sign that bulls are running out of gas. At the same time, bears need to keep UTIL below 981 to guarantee stock market weakness next week. Bears also need to pound retail stocks and move RTH back below 161.10 as fast as possible. Easy-peasy. Choose your poison.

The action in banks, utes and retail stocks today dictate if the 'caution' flag is removed or conversely, if the 'imminent turn' notation is added.

4/16/23; 7:00 PM EST =
4/14/23; 10:00 AM EST =
4/13/23; 9:45 AM EST = +58; signal line is +34
4/12/23; 3:59 PM EST = +42; signal line is +32

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the choppy slop continues. The bears are pushing back against the rally but the bulls remain in control of stock market direction with the algo number 10 points above the signal line.

There are several moving parts currently impacting market direction including utes, chip, retail stocks and copper.

Bulls need RTH above 160.97 if they want the rally to continue.

Bears need CPER below 24.50 but copper futures are higher. Bears need SOX below 3032 (now at 3053) which is only a -0.7% drop in the chips.

The drama with utilities continues. Bears need UTIL below 967.40 (now at 968.68). It is a game of pennies. If UTIL or SOX fails, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play and if the SPX is below 4087 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The UTIL 967.40 bull/bear line in the sand is meaningless next week replaced with 981.27. Isn't that a fine how do you do? The current 969 palindrome does not cut it for the bulls for next week. If utes begin dropping, it is obviously good news for bears. If UTIL remains above 969 for today and tomorrow, the bulls will have their chests puffed-out but it does not tell the story. Bulls need to push UTIL above 981 by 4 PM EST Friday, otherwise, next week the utes will create negativity in the stock market. The behavior of UTIL to end the week is going to tell you a lot about what is going to happen next week.

Focus on utes, chips and retail stocks to determine market direction forward over then next few trading days.

4/16/23; 7:00 PM EST =
4/14/23; 10:00 AM EST =
4/12/23; 3:59 PM EST = +42; signal line is +32
4/12/23; 3:17 PM EST = +26; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
4/12/23; 3:16 PM EST = +42; signal line is +29
4/12/23; 3:01 PM EST = +58; signal line is +27
4/12/23; 2:54 PM EST = +42; signal line is +23
4/11/23; 12:18 PM EST = +58; signal line is +20
4/11/23; 11:58 PM EST = +42; signal line is +17
4/11/23; 9:54 AM EST = +58; signal line is +15
4/11/23; 9:46 AM EST = +42; signal line is +12
4/11/23; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +10
4/10/23; 12:57 PM EST = +42; signal line is +7

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Copper fails and then the utilities round trip dictating the stutter-steps in the overall stock market.

Bears need UTIL below 967.40 and 963.10 and price begins at 970.03. If one fails, the caution flag will be out and if both fail, the imminent turn to the short side will be in play. Bulls must keep utes elevated with all their might.

Bulls need stronger copper to keep the upside party going. Bulls need to push CPER above 24.50 now at 24.39. This equates to a +0.5% gain in copper futures that are trading up 0.9% in real-time so the bulls are smiling.

4/16/23; 7:00 PM EST =
4/14/23; 10:00 AM EST =
4/10/23; 12:57 PM EST = +42; signal line is +7
4/10/23; 11:43 AM EST = +26; signal line is +3
4/10/23; 9:43 AM EST = +10; signal line is +1
4/10/23; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is -1
4/9/23; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is -3
4/7/23; 9:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls turn on the afterburners pumping utilities and copper higher. UTIL overcomes 963.72 a big deal since it takes the major crash profile for the US stock market off the table. The bulls are in clover with the algo number 48 points above the signal line.

On Easter Monday, when everyone returns after the holiday, stomachs churning from hard-boiled eggs, beer, chocolate, jelly beans and ham, utes and copper will tell the tale. Semiconductors and commodities are also key parameters and they are currently bullish. The banks are the only strong negative force in the stock market right now.

UTIL 963.72 and 967.40 tell the stock market story out of the gate on Monday. UTIL begins at 970.79 so utilities are creating bullishness for the stock market. If UTIL loses 967.40, that signals that the upside rally in stocks will stall. If UTIL then loses 963.72, stocks will slip back into a a major crash profile going forward.

You can watch copper futures into the Monday trade. Bears need a drop of -0.4% in copper futures to begin growling. If copper and the two utes values fail, Keybot would likely flip short. This illustrates how shaky the stock market is right now. Bulls can create more upside in stocks with stronger utes, copper and banks but that is a limited route. Bears can create weakness in stocks with many more parameters available.

SOX below 3023 and GTX below 3375 will also cause stock market weakness. The 'caution' and 'imminent turn' notations are not in the title line but if the utes fail out of the gate on Monday, consider the warning notations to be in play as the robot gets ready to flip short.

A failure in the utes will again place the US stock market into a major crash profile. April is shaping up to be a pivotal month for the stock market for this year. Now it is time for Peter Cottontail, hoppin' down the bunny trail.

4/9/23; 7:00 PM EST =
4/7/23; 9:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is -6
4/6/23; 2:17 PM EST = +42; signal line is -8
4/6/23; 2:05 PM EST = +26; signal line is -11
4/6/23; 12:15 PM EST = +42; signal line is -13
4/6/23; 11:37 AM EST = +26; signal line is -15
4/6/23; 11:07 AM EST = +10; signal line is -17
4/6/23; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is -18
4/4/23; 9:37 AM EST = +10; signal line is -20

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains bullish. Copper failed yesterday creating market sogginess. Bulls need stronger copper and to push CPER back above 24.51 if they want to keep flexing their muscles.

Bears need weaker retail stocks, commodities and semiconductors and higher volatility. Copper futures are trading lower so the bears are starting to wake up and walk around. VIX 20.88 will cause stock market trouble and it is trading up to 19.79 in real-time.

4/9/23; 7:00 PM EST =
4/7/23; 9:00 AM EST =
4/4/23; 9:37 AM EST = +10; signal line is -20
4/3/23; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is -21

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Commodities join the bull camp so the upside orgy continues. The bulls are cruising with the algo number 47 points above the signal line.

Copper and commodities create the ongoing buoyancy in the stock market. Bears need GTX (commodities) below 3374 and/or CPER (copper) below 24.51 to stop the rally. Both represent about a -1% drop from current levels. Copper futures are currently trading up +0.4% so the bear's path becomes more difficult.

4/9/23; 7:00 PM EST =
4/7/23; 9:00 AM EST =
4/3/23; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is -21
4/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +12; signal line is -23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with Q1 in the rearview mirror and the algo number 35 points above the signal line. Shorts are throwing in the towel creating a sharp rally higher.

The bulls need stronger commodities to keep the upside party going. Bulls need GTX above 3371 (now at 3323 almost there). If GTX turns bullish, another leg higher will occur in the stock market.

The bears need 2 of the next 3 parameters to turn bearish if they want to flip the model short. All 3 represent -2% pullbacks from current levels so the bears have work to do. Bears need RTH below 160.25, CPER below 24.45 and/or NYA below 15065. Bears need weak retail stocks, copper and NYA index to stop the stock market rally. The rally will not end until at least one of the 3 turn bearish.

4/9/23; 7:00 PM EST =
4/7/23; 9:00 AM EST =
4/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +12; signal line is -23
3/31/23; 10:00 AM EST = +12; signal line is -24
3/30/23; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is -26