STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market battle continues. Utilities and copper continue controlling stock market direction. The bulls are in charge but the algo number is only 5 measly points above the signal line.

UTIL (DJU) 945.03 and 969.34 are the two key bull/bear lines in the sand for the week ahead. UTIL begins the week at 934 below both the 945 and 969 palindrome, in the bear camp, creating market negativity. Not only that, but if this activity remains, it warns of a serious and epic drop in the stock market set to begin anytime that will do extensive damage in the weeks ahead. Bulls must push UTIL at least above 945 or they are in big trouble.

CPER 23.60 is another bull/bear line in the sand. CPER begins the new week at 24.32 a big 72 cents, or 3%, above the key 23.60. Watch copper futures overnight to see if the red metal drops -3%.

Bulls need UTIL above 945 to breathe easier about the path forward. If UTIL then moves above 969, the bulls will be partying sending stocks higher in the week ahead.

Bears need CPER below 23.60 and if this occurs, and the SPX drops below 4564 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The -3% drop in copper is a lot to ask for if you are bearish.

Watch UTIL 945. If price comes up and pokes above and below 945 a couple times or so during Monday, that signals a stock market that is about to turn negative. Since the requirement for copper is substantive (-3%), the bears may instead jog UTIL above and below 945 a few times which would then create the potential for the model to flip short regardless of the status in copper.

The week ahead will be interesting. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow evening for month end and then also on Friday morning before the opening bell.

8/6/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/23; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39         
7/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39
7/27/23; 10:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo number is only a measly 5 points above the signal line so the bulls keep trying to hang on day after day. The drama with utilities and copper continue. Add volatility to the mix and these three parameters are dictating the direction of the US stock market currently.

UTIL (DJU) is at 934 falling back yesterday from the key 945.03 (this parameter fluctuates slightly since it is continually recalculated) and 956.47 lines in the sand. This is a major failure that points to serious trouble for the stock market ahead. However, the utes have made this threat 2 or 3 other times in recent weeks only for the Fed and others to pump utes higher to take away the threat. Perhaps they may not be able to save the utilities going forward.

For today, bulls need to push UTIL above 945.03 to prove they still got game. In addition, a move above 956.47 would prove that the stock market rally has more legs. For next week, the 956.47 is meaningless and replaced with 969.34 a harder comparable for the bulls to achieve.

For next week, the two key bull/bear lines in the sand are UTIL 945.03 and 969.34. Therefore, pay close attention to where UTIL ends the week today. If UTIL ends above 969, that tells you a huge rally in stocks is on tap next week. If UTIL finishes today above 945 but below 969, it is more same-o, same-o, choppy confusing slop going forward. If UTIL finishes today below 945, the US stock market is in trouble going forward.

Copper is another big influencer of stock market direction currently like utes. Bears must push CPER below 23.60, price is now at 23.76, to create market mayhem. That is only 16 pennies away or -0.7%. Copper futures are currently up +0.5% in real-time so the bears have work to do.

Volatility is coming back into play as well. The robot identifies VIX 16.44 as an increasingly important parameter impacting stock market direction. VIX is at the 14.41 palindrome at the end of the day yesterday and is currently trading at 13.92 below 14. You will know that the stock market is in real trouble and falling apart when VIX moves above 16.44. Until then, the bears can growl, but their bark does not have much bite.

The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction. If the bears can keep utes negative, and at the same time pull CPER below 23.60, and pull the SPX below 4529, Keybot the Quant would likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. If VIX pops above 16.44, the stock market will be in free fall. The fun continues. All the girls and lovely ladies just want to have fun.

7/30/23; 7:00 PM EST =
7/28/23; 10:00 AM EST =
7/27/23; 10:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39
7/25/23; 10:25 AM EST = +60; signal line is +38
7/25/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +37
7/25/23; 9:37 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
7/24/23; 11:24 AM EST = +60; signal line is +35
7/24/23; 10:37 AM EST = +44 signal line is +33
7/24/23; 10:20 AM EST = +28; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
7/23/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +32

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 12 points above the signal line, however, the bears are starting to growl and want the stock market ball back. Utes and copper are telling the market tale currently.

The bulls push UTIL above the critical 946.90 preventing the bears from taking control. The two key bull/bear lines in the sand for utilities in the week ahead are 946.90 and 956.47. UTIL price is at 948.70 above the 946.90 creating stock market joy while price is below the key 956.47 creating market sadness (a wash).

Copper also walks a tightrope. The bull/bear line in the sand for CPER is 23.59 with price at 23.56. The weakness in copper creates bearishness in the stock market but it is a coin-flip with only a 3-penny gap.

As utilities go, so goes the stock market. As copper goes, so goes the stock market.

If the bulls can push UTIL above 956.47, the stock market upside orgy continues.

If the bears can push UTIL below 946.90, the stock market will be in trouble, and if the SPX is then below 4536 and trending lower, Keybot the Quant may flip to the short side, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. The SPX closed at the lows on Friday at 4536 so any negativity in the S&P futures overnight will give the bears a head start.

Bulls win with higher utilities and copper while bears win with weaker utilities and copper. Monday morning we see what the bears got. Will bears take control of the stock market or fold like a cheap suit? Sharp Dressed Man.

Keybot prints 2 pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. The month ends (EOM) the following Monday, 7/31/23.

7/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/23; 7:00 PM EST =
7/28/23; 10:00 AM EST =
7/25/23; 10:00 AM EST =
7/23/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +32
7/21/23; 10:57 AM EST = +44; signal line is +31
7/21/23; 10:52 AM EST = +28; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
7/21/23; 10:42 AM EST = +44; signal line is +30
7/21/23; 9:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
7/20/23; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +28
7/19/23; 1:27 PM EST = +28; signal line is +26
7/19/23; 1:11 PM EST = +44; signal line is +26
7/19/23; 12:21 PM EST = +28; signal line is +24
7/19/23; 12:09 PM EST = +44; signal line is +23
7/19/23; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +22
7/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +20
7/17/23; 9:54 AM EST = +44; signal line is +20
7/17/23; 9:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +17
7/16/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +17
7/14/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +15
7/12/23; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +13

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long only printing one number this week thus far. The bulls are running higher on the happy Fed talk and inflation data that shows easing. The dollar falls out of bed catapulting commodities and copper higher pumping US equities higher.

Utilities are a rocket launch (see previous posts explaining utes and charts on The Keystone Speculator blog) this week so the bulls are trying to prevent a stock market crash in the weeks ahead. UTIL is at 927. UTIL 940 and 950 are the two key bull/bear lines in the sand this week with only 2 sessions remaining. For next week, UTIL 971 and 950 are the two bull/bear lines in the sand.

If UTIL pops above 940 today or tomorrow, the stock market will take another leg higher. Bears must pull utes lower and prevent 940 with all their might. If 940 is taken out, watch 950 next since that will create more euphoria in stocks and a move above 971 next week will create a very bullish scenario ahead. A lot is riding on the utilities over the next 2 days.

Bears need UTIL to stall here and stay away from 940. If UTIL remains below 940 going forward, the stock market will likely begin a huge down move that will be extremely devastating (potential crash) over the coming weeks and couple-few months.

Copper creates yesterdays stock market joy. CPER overtakes 23.47 now at 23.77. Bears need CPER below 23.47 to stop the upside rally in the stock market. This represents a -1.3% loss in copper futures that are currently up +0.4%. Bears also need to send GTX below 3283 if they want to growl. The bulls are happy walking around with their chests puffed out feeling like a Sharp Dressed Man.

7/16/23; 7:00 PM EST =
7/14/23; 10:00 AM EST =
7/12/23; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +13
7/9/23; 7:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +11
7/7/23; 1:37 PM EST = +28; signal line is +10

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 4425 at munchtime yesterday after a week of drama. Utilities commit to the bear camp but commodities jump into the bull camp. Utilities, copper, commodities and banks are all that matter and the bank earnings begin next week.

The bulls take control but the algo number is only 18 points above the signal line so the caution flag remains out. GTX 3273-3274 is a key bull/bear line in the sand with price jumping higher to 3304. Commodities and copper will dictate stock market direction on Monday.

On the last trade, that ran for 2 weeks, the quant program loses a couple percent and the actual trading loses almost -4%. For the year thus far, with over one-half of the 2023 trading in the rearview mirror, the benchmark S&P 500 is up a big +15%. The Keybot the Quant program and actual trading is flat on the year continuing to weather the wild whipsaw chop suey for the last 7 months. Some investment houses have pulled the plugs on their quants and algorithms since the models cannot handle the whipsaws and choppy slop this year. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the short side.

If GTX oscillates above and below the 3273-3274 line in the sand a couple/few times on Monday resolving lower, and copper remains weak, that tells you that the model likely wants to flip back to the short side. If copper rallies, that likely hints that stocks want to run higher for a couple days or so. 

7/9/23; 7:00 PM EST =
7/7/23; 1:37 PM EST = +28; signal line is +10
7/7/23; 1:17 PM EST = +44; signal line is +8
7/7/23; 12:30 PM EST = +28; signal line is +7; go long 4425; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -3.8%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.0%)
7/7/23; 9:52 AM EST = +30; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
7/7/23; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
7/7/23; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
7/6/23; 11:57 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
7/6/23; 9:41 AM EST = +2; signal line is +6
7/5/23; 2:18 PM EST = +32; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
7/5/23; 1:42 PM EST = +32; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
7/3/23; 12:56 PM EST = +18; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
7/3/23; 12:44 PM EST = +2; signal line is +9
7/3/23; 12:13 PM EST = +18; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
7/3/23; 11:52 AM EST = +2; signal line is +11
7/3/23; 11:41 AM EST = +18; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
7/3/23; 11:23 AM EST = +2; signal line is +12
7/3/23; 10:38 AM EST = +18; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
7/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +2; signal line is +13
6/30/23; 10:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +14
6/28/23; 3:36 PM EST = +2; signal line is +14
6/28/23; 12:57 PM EST = -14; signal line is +14
6/28/23; 11:33 AM EST = +2; signal line is +15
6/28/23; 10:58 AM EST = -14; signal line is +15
6/27/23; 10:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +15
6/27/23; 9:43 AM EST = +0; signal line is +15
6/26/23; 12:11 PM EST = -16; signal line is +14; go short 4336; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +12.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.3%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as more drama occurs in the shortened session. The algo prints 7 numbers in the short session with the bulls and bears duking it out back and forth. The quant is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 10 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not fully latch yet to permit the move.

Utilities ran the show on Monday and that will continue on Wednesday after the July 4th holiday and party time in Party Town. UTIL 910.67 is the bull/bear line in the sand this week and will send the overall stock market in the same direction. UTIL is at 912.39 creating lift in stocks. If bearish, you must see UTIL below 910.67 as soon as possible or you will be hosed.

Bears must push UTIL below 911 or they are in trouble. Bears need weaker banks and XLF below 33.02 but the financials continue higher each day.

If UTIL remains above 911, and the SPX moves above 4456, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

This is only 1 point higher in the S&P futures overnight so that will give you a heads-up on what is in store for Wednesday. The bulls have it if they want it but a gap-up move at the opening bell is not desired. If the SPX gaps higher at the opening bell tomorrow morning on hump day, the algo will likely bulk at going long and instead wait approximately 90 minutes before committing.

Bulls need stronger copper and CPER above 23.50 which represents a +0.7% pop in copper futures so watch that closely. Bulls will also benefit from stronger commodities and GTX above 3270. Either one of these parameters jumping into the bull camp will guarantee higher stocks going forward.

Boiling it down to make things simple, if S&P futures are up from +1 to about +12 at the opening bell, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. If copper futures are up over +0.7%, that will tell you the bulls rule and stocks are going to melt-up higher.

If S&P futures are up over +13, the algo will likely wait for about 90 minutes before committing to the long side, if it does.

If S&P futures are negative, the bears may still have some fight in them. This negativity will be bolstered if UTIL can fall back below 910.67 and trail lower. Weak copper and commodities will also give a nod to the bears. 

Wednesday will be an interesting day in the stock market where the bulls puff their chests out proving how strong they are, or, they fold like a cheap suit. Happy Independence Day.

7/9/23; 7:00 PM EST =
7/7/23; 9:00 AM EST =
7/3/23; 12:56 PM EST = +18; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
7/3/23; 12:44 PM EST = +2; signal line is +9
7/3/23; 12:13 PM EST = +18; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
7/3/23; 11:52 AM EST = +2; signal line is +11
7/3/23; 11:41 AM EST = +18; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
7/3/23; 11:23 AM EST = +2; signal line is +12
7/3/23; 10:38 AM EST = +18; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
7/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +2; signal line is +13

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION --TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 11 points below the signal line but the stock market continues higher on the Fed Chairman Powell and AI orgy rallies. The algo has been idling since mid-week waiting for a firm commitment one way or the other.

Utilities, copper, commodities and banks are running the stock market show currently. The first three are in the bear camp so the bulls need them on board if stocks are to continue higher. The banks are in the bull camp having a good ole time after promising more divvy's and buybacks late Friday in the corrupt crony capitalism system. Bears need weaker banksters if they want to stop the rally.

Bears need XLF below 32.80 to stop the rally in stocks.

Bulls need either UTIL above 911, CPER above 23.52, and/or GTX above 3276 to create another leg higher in stocks. Any one of them can flip bullish which would signal that the upside is real. 2 or all 3 flipping bullish means the orgy party is about to become more decadent with stocks shooting far higher.

If any of the 3 flip bullish, and the SPX moves above 4458, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation is added to the title line.

Monday will be a big day even though it is a shortened session with the stock market closing at 1:00 PM EST for the July 4th holiday landing on Tuesday this year. US markets are closed on Tuesday for Independence Day, as talented and pretty Martina steals the show, and regular trading resumes from hump day forward.

Utilities failed last week opening the door to extremely bad things going forward for the weeks ahead. The bulls have a chance to save the day this week if they can push UTIL above 911 only 4 points away. If UTIL move above 911 and stays above in the week ahead, and then sets its sights on the 930-940 level, stocks are going to run higher. If, however, utes are weak and cannot regain 911 by the end of the week, it spells major trouble for stocks going forward. UTIL begins at the perhaps ominous, 906.66, number; trip 6's.

Copper futures will need to jump about +1.4% overnight Sunday into Monday morning to get CPER in the bull camp so check that in the early tape. Copper and commodities tell you a lot about the stock market ahead. Both need to rally to push stocks higher. If both remain in a lull and roll over lower, so will stocks. You can check XLF in the pre-market to see how the financials are trading.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Q2 and the first half of trading is in the bag. Q3 (July, August, September) trading begins tomorrow with the shortened session and everyone mad to be there instead of home enjoying a barbecue party.

7/9/23; 7:00 PM EST =
7/7/23; 9:00 AM EST =
7/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +2; signal line is +13
6/30/23; 10:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +14
6/28/23; 3:36 PM EST = +2; signal line is +14