STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 47 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising with their feet up on the dashboard. The quant is quiet this week idling along without printing any numbers thus far. It is always interesting how the robot may print 15 numbers in one day and then several days may go by without the quant printing any numbers.

Bears need weaker commodities to push stocks lower but oil and others remain buoyant. Bears need stronger banks and NYA while pushing volatility lower. These three parameters have only become more bearish this week. Utilities have crashed which remains a very ominous harbinger of things to come.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number for this week tomorrow morning. The month and third quarter trading ends tomorrow (EOM and EOQ3, respectively).

10/1/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/23; 10:00 AM EST =
9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST = -49; signal line is -2
9/22/23; 3:39 PM EST = -49; signal line is +1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and the bears are cruising with the algo number 50 points below the signal line. The robot spits out 6 numbers on Friday. The drama is around the NYA 15622 bull/bear line in the sand as expected.

NYA finishes at 15570 below the critical 15622 so the bears are walking around this weekend with chins held high and chests puffed.

Make no mistake. The collapse in chips leads the broad markets lower. The problems in the housing and manufacturing sectors are old school indicators that did not bring the broad market lower. Once semiconductors failed, however, stocks fell apart. Perhaps the luster is coming off the AI rose. Every Rose Has Its Thorn.

The bulls can only stop the stock market selling if they push NYA back above 15622. In addition, the bulls likely need stronger banks and lower volatility to stop the overall negativity.

Bears will send the stock market another leg lower if they can weaken commodities. Remember, the weak utilities over the last couple months signaled trouble ahead and utes remain a bad omen for stocks going forward (crash profile).

Watch NYA 15622, XLF 34.18 and VIX 14.85. All 3 parameters are bearish. Bulls need at least one of the 3 to turn bullish to stop the stock market selling. If all 3 remain in the bear camp, the beatings will continue until moral improves.

9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/22/23; 3:39 PM EST = -49; signal line is +1
9/22/23; 3:14 PM EST = -35; signal line is +4
9/22/23; 1:29 PM EST = -49; signal line is +6
9/22/23; 10:05 AM EST = -35; signal line is +9
9/22/23; 9:58 AM EST = -49; signal line is +12
9/22/23; 9:36 AM EST = -35; signal line is +15
9/21/23; 3:55 PM EST = -49; signal line is +18

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears slaughtered the bulls yesterday the SPX puking 72 points. The bed-sh*tting sends the algo number 67 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising.

Two key market metrics failed yesterday and will tell you if the downside has legs. XLF drops below the 34.21 bull/bear line in the sand ending the day at 33.92. Bulls desperately need the banks to recover back above XLF 34.21.

The NYA fails below the 15622 bull/bear line in the sand down to 15602. This failure is especially ominous because it represents a cyclical bear market ahead. Write NYA 15622 on a sticky note and paste it to your forehead for the days ahead. There will likely be a battle here during the days ahead and the resolution will dictate how stocks end the year.

If NYA remains below 15622 going forward, the US stock market will crumble lower into year end. If the NYA recovers above 15622, the stock market will stabilize and the selling will stop. Also, the bloodbath scenario ahead for stocks can be taken off the table.

NYA 15622 and XLF 34.21 will tell you the stock market story today. XLF is trading at 34.00 in the pre-market. For the bears to gain further traction to the downside, they need weaker commodities.

9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/21/23; 3:55 PM EST = -49; signal line is +18
9/21/23; 10:49 AM EST = -35; signal line is +20
9/21/23; 9:53 AM EST = -19; signal line is +22
9/21/23; 9:42 AM EST = -35; signal line is +24
9/20/23; 3:59 PM EST = -19; signal line is +27
9/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the markets idle into Fed day today. Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High this afternoon to tell global traders how to trade. The algo number is 33 points below the signal line so the bears are walking around with their chests puffed out.

Bulls need higher copper, chips and retail stocks to regain stock market control. Bulls need CPER above 23.40, RTH above 175.30 and/or SOX above 3558. Any 1 of the 3 will stop the stock market selling and place bulls on steady ground. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, stocks will be rallying higher and likely position the quant to go long. If all 3 turn bullish, stocks will be catapulting to the moon.

Copper futures are up +0.6% and CPER only needs to gain +0.3% to flip bullish so it looks like copper will jump into the bull camp after the opening bell. This activity likely places the stock market on hold until Chairman Powell walks onto the stage with his jelly-stained necktie in a few hours.

Bears need higher volatility and weaker banks. Bears need VIX above 14.80 and XLF below 34.28 to create stock market carnage. Of course, Powell's presser will move the banks. Yesterday, the VIX teased 14.80 but then pulled back down waiting on the Fed. VIX is now trading at 13.91 in real-time so the bears have to jam it a stick higher if they want to growl.

Volatility is the key. Bulls win today if they keep Uncle Vix below 14.80. If VIX pops above 14.80, there will be blood on Wall Street. Powell is getting ready for the big day at home asking his wife if she can help him find two socks that match.

9/24/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28
9/18/23; 12:20 PM EST = -5; signal line is +29
9/18/23; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is +29
9/17/23; 7:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +30
9/15/23; 11:21 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side at SPX 4466. Of course it does in these multi-month chop suey markets chewing up bulls and bears alike. The model round-trips from SPX 4464 to 4499 then back to 4466 verifying the never-ending choppy slop.

UTIL pops above 9 hundo for the bulls but utes then fall on their sword. The chips were taken out back behind the garage and beaten with a baseball bat. The SOX collapses into the bear camp at 3476 below the 3575 line in the sand. Copper faltered but CPER ends the day at 23.44 in the bull camp above the 23.39 line in the sand (by pennies).

VIX is at 13.79 remaining below the 14.97 line in the sand so the bears got nothing unless VIX pops above 15; this will tell you that the rout is on and the downside in stocks has legs. If the VIX remains below 15, stocks will recover and not drop to any great significance.

UTIL is at 892 and needs 915 next week to provide bull fuel for the stock market. Retail stocks and banks remain in the bull camp so any weakness in these sectors, especially Scamazon, will portend weakness ahead for the stock market.

The bears have the stock market football stumbling down field like a drunk with the algo number only 2 measly points below the signal line. The stock market remains a coin toss. 

On the last trade, that results in a whipsaw, the algo program and actual trading each lose about one percent; the nickel and diming continues. For the year, the S&P 500, that is the United States stock market, is up +16%. The quant program is down about -4% and the actual trading is down about -6% on the year thus far. Some additional oil is injected into Keybot's joints to help the robot out. After 14 great successful years, Keybot is looking like the Tin Man. There is still lots of time remaining in the year and there is likely an interesting finish ahead. Keybot exits IWM and enters SH and will remain in the 1x ETF's until the middle of October due to the price volatility (wild swings in price).

For the week ahead, the Fed is on tap so stocks may idle until Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High to tell international stock, bond and currency traders how to trade.

Chips, retail stocks (AMZN), banks and copper are controlling stock market direction currently. Nothing Else Matters.

Bears will prove they can take the stock market lower if retail stocks, banks and copper weaken. Bulls prove they are going to be in control going forward if chips and utilities rally. For now, the imminent turn notation remains in the title line due to these coin-flip markets.

9/17/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/15/23; 11:21 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29
9/15/23; 11:04 AM EST = +11; signal line is +29
9/15/23; 10:57 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29; go short 4466; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -3.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.1%; Actual results for 2023 = -5.5%)
9/15/23; 10:22 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
9/15/23; 10:09 AM EST = +43; signal line is +29
9/15/23; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
9/15/23; 9:55 AM EST = +27; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
9/15/23; 9:46 AM EST = +43; signal line is +28
9/15/23; 9:36 AM EST = +27; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 2:38 PM EST = +43; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 2:20 PM EST = +27; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 12:21 PM EST = +43; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 12:14 PM EST = +27; signal line is +25
9/14/23; 11:57 AM EST = +43; signal line is +24
9/14/23; 11:44 AM EST = +27; signal line is +22
9/14/23; 11:10 AM EST = +43; signal line is +21; go long 4499; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -3.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2023 = -4.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday at SPX 4499. What a wild ride it has been this week. The quant is spitting out numbers like crazy. Chips and copper are running the stock market show and now utilities want to reenter the game. The drama is guaranteed to continue and do not be surprised if the algo whipsaws back to the short side.

UTIL 900.04, SOX 3578.40 and CPER 23.40 are controlling stock market direction currently. Utilities have remained in the bear camp for many weeks an ominous harbinger of big trouble but the stock market holds up with government stimulus and central banker money sloshing around everywhere. UTIL begins today at the 898 palindrome only 2 points from the 900.04 line in the sand. If UTIL moves above 900, it will create further upside in the stock market.

The UTIL 900.04 is obsolete after today and for all of next week the bull/bear line in the sand is 915.24. Thus, if the bulls can create more upside juice today above 9 hundo, that bullishness will disappear come Monday because UTIL will then need to be above 915. If utes rally big today and UTIL moves above 915, it tells you that the stock market rally has some legs. Obviously, bears want UTIL to fall from the current 898 price and trend lower which will continue forecasting serious trouble ahead for US stocks.

Bears need SOX below 3578.40 and price is at 3584 only a sneeze away. In the pre-market, semi's are dropping a couple percent across the board due to Taiwan Semi cutting back on equipment deliveries and orders (business is not as robust as thought). Thus, SOX will likely fail back into the bear camp at the opening bell creating market negativity.

Bears need CPER below 23.40 with price starting at 23.53. This is a 0.6% difference and copper futures are currently down -0.3% so the bears have more work to do to beat down the red metal and create stock market negativity.

If SOX and CPER fail into the bear camp, or if SOX jogs above and below the line in the sand a couple times today on its own, and the SPX drops below 4479, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line.

It is a crazy market. Crazy as only Patsy could sing. Flip a coin. The chips, copper and utes will tell you the story today.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and the actual trading each lose -0.8% getting nickel and dimed to death over the last few weeks. Algorithms loathe chop suey markets and this erratic price action has been ongoing for nearly a year. It is reminiscent of the choppy whipsaw slop during 2017.

For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up an impressive +17%. The algo program is down -3% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is down -4%. Keybot the Quant has never had a down year since it came on line in 2008. Do you think the robot has finally met its match this year? There are 3-1/2 months remaining in 2023. Keybot exits DOG and enters IWM remaining in 1x ETF's. This timer will expire in about a week and Keybot will then go back into 2x leveraged ETF's as long as another whipsaw does not occur.

9/17/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/15/23; 10:00 AM EST =
9/14/23; 2:38 PM EST = +43; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 2:20 PM EST = +27; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 12:21 PM EST = +43; signal line is +26
9/14/23; 12:14 PM EST = +27; signal line is +25
9/14/23; 11:57 AM EST = +43; signal line is +24
9/14/23; 11:44 AM EST = +27; signal line is +22
9/14/23; 11:10 AM EST = +43; signal line is +21; go long 4499; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -3.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2023 = -4.4%)
9/14/23; 10:46 AM EST = +43; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains short
9/14/23; 9:49 AM EST = +27; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains short
9/14/23; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 2:48 PM EST = +11; signal line is +15
9/13/23; 1:34 PM EST = +27; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 11:06 AM EST = +43; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 10:31 AM EST = +27; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 9:56 AM EST = +11; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains short
9/13/23; 9:36 AM EST = +27; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 1:53 PM EST = +11; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 1:29 PM EST = +27; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 12:43 PM EST = +11; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 12:10 PM EST = +27; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 10:33 AM EST = +11; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 9:48 AM EST = +27; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/12/23; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 3:24 PM EST = +27; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 2:41 PM EST = +11; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 10:01 AM EST = +27; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 9:52 AM EST = +11; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 9:43 AM EST = +27; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
9/11/23; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains short
9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST = +11; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains short
9/8/23; 10:27 AM EST = +11; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
9/8/23; 9:43 AM EST = -5; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 2:56 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/7/23; 2:33 PM EST = -5; signal line is +6
9/7/23; 12:36 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/7/23; 12:07 PM EST = -5; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 11:55 AM EST = -19; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 11:37 AM EST = -5; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 11:04 AM EST = -19; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 10:58 AM EST = -35; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 10:49 AM EST = -21; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 10:06 AM EST = -35; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 9:36 AM EST = -19; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 8:37 AM EST = -3; signal line is +5
9/6/23; 2:28 PM EST = +11; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
9/6/23; 1:18 PM EST = -5; signal line is +2
9/6/23; 1:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +1
9/6/23; 10:50 AM EST = -5; signal line is +2; go short 4464; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but wants to flip back to the long side. The algo number is 6 points above the signal line but the internal parameters are not yet fully latched to allow the move to the long side. It is more chop suey with stocks up, down, down, up, and back again.

Come Monday, if the SPX can gradually move higher above 4474 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. It is a coin-flip these days.

Yesterday, the bulls needed a gradual move high in the SPX to push the robot into going long but instead price shot up over 11 points higher out of the gate. That activity triggers a gap-up timer and does not allow the move to occur for about 90 minutes (the exact minutes will not be disclosed). Stocks print a high at about 10 AM EST and were downhill ever since staggering into the weekend.

The chips put a kibosh on the upside party failing into the bear camp shortly after Friday's opening bell but after that the bulls pumped banks higher to try and salvage the day and stop the semiconductor negativity.

On Monday morning, as banks go, so goes the stock market. Bears need XLF 34.25 with price at 34.30. Watch it in the pre-market. If stocks sell off on Monday but the XLF does not drop below 34.25, the bears got buptkis and stocks will recover.

Bulls will run higher if semiconductors run higher. Bulls need SOX above 3580 to prove they got upside game. If stocks rally but the SOX cannot achieve 3580, the rally will fade, roll over and die.

There are lots of other moving parts but XLF 34.25 and SOX 3580 is enough for you to know what is controlling stock market direction for Monday.

Copper soiled the sheets dumping -4% last week. If the economy is so rosy, including the glorified golf carts boondoggle (EV's), why is everyone shouting, "we don't need no steenkin' copper" and shunning Dr Copper like he is a lepper?

9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/8/23; 10:27 AM EST = +11; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
9/8/23; 9:43 AM EST = -5; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 2:56 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the robot spits out a dozen numbers yesterday a very active day start to finish. Stocks are crazy, going loco, with parameters flip-flopping unwilling to commit in either direction. Loco-motion by Little Eva.

The bulls punch back at yesterday's negativity and the algo wants to flip long with the algo number 5 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. If the SPX moves above 4457 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. Thus, 7 points of SPX upside is needed for the bulls to smile but S&P futures are down -6.

Bears need weaker chips and retail stocks if they want to create more selling in the stock market. Bears need SOX below 3581.51, price sits on top of this line in the sand, and/or RTH below 175.12 and price sits at this line in the sand as well. Higher volatility will also help bears. VIX is at 14.58 but bears cannot growl until VIX is above 15.10.

Bulls will be running stocks higher if they pump XLF above 34.25 and price begins at 34.23. Flip a coin with this drama going on. It is all game of pennies and dollars right now. Chips are marginally soggy in the pre-market. AMZN is negative pre-market and it drives the RTH. XLF slips to 34.17 in the pre-market so it makes sense that the S&P futures are marginally negative.

Chips, retail stocks, volatility and banks are controlling stock market direction today. 

9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/7/23; 2:56 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/7/23; 2:33 PM EST = -5; signal line is +6
9/7/23; 12:36 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
9/7/23; 12:07 PM EST = -5; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 11:55 AM EST = -19; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 11:37 AM EST = -5; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 11:04 AM EST = -19; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 10:58 AM EST = -35; signal line is +4
9/7/23; 10:49 AM EST = -21; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 10:06 AM EST = -35; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 9:36 AM EST = -19; signal line is +5
9/7/23; 8:37 AM EST = -3; signal line is +5
9/6/23; 2:28 PM EST = +11; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 4464 but is already wanting to whipsaw back to the long side with the algo number 8 points above the signal line. The internal parameters are not fully latched so the robot did not flip long late day yesterday and it looks like today will be off to a soggy start. Watch banks and volatility.

The weakness in stocks started with a battle between copper and retail stocks and both failed into the bear camp. Then the banks collapsed followed by a spike in volatility. Late day, however, volatility and banks flip back into the bull camp so obviously these two parameters are controlling stock market direction currently.

Bears need VIX above 15.10 to create blood and carnage on Wall Street. Let's see, in real-time about an hour before the US open, the VIX is at 15.05. Bears only need another nickel to lock in negativity going forward.

Bears also need XLF below 34.24. XLF closed at 34.32 in the bull camp so it is a game of pennies. Let's see, in the pre-market, XLF is trading at...... wait for it ........ wait a bit longer for it ......... 34.22. Thus, all things same, the bears will receive more juice due to weak financials and the S&P futures are down -23 points. There's VIX at 15.09 now. Watch it closely.

VIX 15.10 and XLF 34.24 will tell you if the downside in the US stock market has legs.

On the last trade that ran for about a week, the losses from the previous trade are reversed. It is all choppy slop this year stocks running all over the creation but not going anywhere. Sounds like a Social D song. The benchmark SPX is up +16% on the year with the quant program down a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the robot down about -4% so far this year. Keybot exits IWM and enters DOG.

9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/6/23; 2:28 PM EST = +11; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
9/6/23; 1:18 PM EST = -5; signal line is +2
9/6/23; 1:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +1
9/6/23; 10:50 AM EST = -5; signal line is +2; go short 4464; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.6%)
9/6/23; 10:07 AM EST = +11; signal line is +2
9/6/23; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is +2
9/6/23; 9:57 AM EST = +11; signal line is +1
9/6/23; 9:44 AM EST = +27; signal line is +1
9/6/23; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is +0
9/5/23; 3:57 PM EST = +27; signal line is -1
9/3/23; 7:00 PM EST = +43; signal line is -2
9/1/23; 9:00 AM EST = +43; signal line is -4
8/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +43; signal line is -6
8/29/23; 10:08 AM EST = +43; signal line is -9
8/29/23; 10:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is -11
8/29/23; 10:00 AM EST = +11; signal line is -13
8/29/23; 9:50 AM EST = +12; signal line is -14
8/29/23; 9:47 AM EST = -4; signal line is -16; go long 4446; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.9%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains bullish with the algo number a big 45 points above the signal line.

Bulls need higher utilities to prove that the upside rally has legs. Bulls need UTIL above 894. UTIL begins at 866.66.

Bears need  weaker copper, banks, chips and retail stocks while pushing volatility higher. Bears need CPER below 23.47 now at 23.71. That is a 1% difference and copper futures are currently down -0.9% so the bears are trying to halt the stock market rally with the red metal.

9/10/23; 7:00 PM EST =
9/3/23; 7:00 PM EST = +43; signal line is -2
9/1/23; 9:00 AM EST = +43; signal line is -4
8/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +43; signal line is -6
8/29/23; 10:08 AM EST = +43; signal line is -9