Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side yesterday at munchtime at SPX 4815. The chips orgy sends the SPX to the highest number in history at 4842.07. America's wealthy elite dance with glee celebrating the rigged crony capitalism system while spitting on the faces of the hundreds of millions of have-not's. The semiconductor party was not the reason the robot flipped back to the bull side; it was copper.
Volatility remains important with the VIX 15.00 bull/bear line in the sand in play for the week ahead. The bulls crippled Uncle Vix again taking a baseball bat to his kneecaps, so he fell down below 15.00 sending stocks higher. This behavior was inconsequential to the quant as it remained short; copper was the big focus. CPER rallied and moved above the bull/bear line in the sand at 23.56 and the rest was history. Copper faltered after that but by then shorts were covering running for their lives creating an upside short-covering thrust sending the SPX to all-time highs.
Copper, commodities and volatility are all that matter currently to stock market direction. As copper goes, so goes the market. CPER begins on Monday at 23.61 only a nickel above the 23.56 line in the sand or 0.2%. Watch copper futures overnight Sunday to see if they are down more than -0.2%, if so, it spells trouble ahead for US stocks and a potential flip back to the short side. If copper rallies, the bulls are likely in good shape for a few days. You will know it is over for the stock market when VIX pops above 15 and remains above.
On the last trade that only ran for a couple days, the benchmark S&P 500, the US stock market, turns positive on the year up about a percent thus far. The quant program and actual trading each lose almost -2% on the trade. On the year thus far, 3 weeks in, the Keybot the Quant program is down -0.7% and the actual trading this year turns negative at -0.3%; call everything flat. Keybot exits SH and enters SPY. The last trade does not qualify as a whipsaw event in the quant programming and the whipsaw timer has now expired. However, on Friday, the timer was still in effect so the quant flipped into SPY remaining in the 1x ETF's. If a whipsaw occurs on Monday, the 1x ETF's will continue but if there is no whipsaw on Monday, the next move, which would be to the short side, will likely be with a 2x ETF.
Watch CPER 23.56 (now creating bullishness in US stocks), VIX 15.00 (creating bullishness), and GTX 3447 (creating bearishness in stocks). One of them will flinch and send US stocks in that respective direction. The choppy slop in 2024 is a lot like the choppy slop of 2023.
1/21/24;
7:00 PM EST =
1/19/24;
1:46 PM EST = +34; signal line is +25
1/19/24;
1:36 PM EST = +18; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
1/19/24; 12:38 PM EST = +34; signal line is +26; go long 4815;
(Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo
for 2024 = -0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = -0.3%)
1/19/24;
10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +26
1/18/24;
9:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +27
1/17/24;
2:38 PM EST = +18; signal line is +27
1/17/24;
2:18 PM EST = +4; signal line is +27
1/17/24;
1:34 PM EST = +18; signal line is +27
1/17/24;
12:16 PM EST = +4; signal line is +28
1/17/24;
10:44 AM EST = +18; signal line is +29
1/17/24; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +30
1/17/24; 9:35 AM EST = +18; signal line is +31; go short 4729;
(Benchmark SPX for 2024 = -0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.1%; Keybot algo
for 2024 = +1.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2024 =
+1.4%)
