STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market drama continues. The bulls are in charge but only by a measly 5-point advantage that can easily flip back to the bear side at anytime.

Banks and copper continue running the show. Copper is bearish creating negativity in the stock market but a +2% rise in copper futures will signal that there is more upside ahead for stocks. Any negativity in copper futures will add nails to the bull coffin.

XLF 41.02 is the key bull/bear line in the sand for the banksters and is uber important. XLF begins the week at 41.11. You can watch it in the pre-market tomorrow morning to see what the story is but a failure through 41.02 spells big trouble for stocks.

If XLF loses 41.02, and the SPX drops below 5451 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If XLF remains above 41.02, the stock market will remain elevated, floating along sideways with a slight upward bias.

If XLF 41.02 fails, watch commodities, retail stocks and volatility. Bears need GTX below 3670, RTH below 203.60 and/or VIX above 13.86, respectively. All three are bullish now but if stocks turn sour, you can use these three parameters to see how deep the selling may be. If XLF fails, and GTX, RTH and VIX fail, stocks will be dropping bigtime and a -10% correction would be reasonable for starters with more to follow.

For Monday morning, focus on XLF 41.02 and the copper futures to gauge how the day will go. The week ahead is goofy with the July 4th holiday on Thursday and markets closed. The Jobs Report is on tap for Friday morning.

7/7/24; 7:00 PM EST =
7/5/24; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +45; signal line is +40
6/28/24; 3:56 PM EST = +45; signal line is +41
6/28/24; 3:06 PM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/28/24; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/28/24; 9:37 AM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/27/24; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/26/24; 3:58 PM EST = +45; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the roller coaster ride continues. Just call me The Roller. The bulls are in charge buy only by a measly 3 points. XLF 41.02 is the bull/bear line in the sand identified by the robot and price is ...... wait for it ....... no, you really should wait for it......... wait a bit longer ........ 41.02. As financials go, so goes the stock market and banks are trading soggy after the stress test results so it appears that XLF may fail at the opening bell tomorrow morning.

If XLF fails below 41.02 and the SPX drops below 5452, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. This represents about a 26 point drop in S&P futures so if you see this in the morning, and the banks are sh*tting the bed, you know the day will be ugly for stocks.

Weaker copper is providing bear energy. CPER must remain below 27.79 to keep the stock market negativity going.

Commodities and volatility are two other parameters the quant is now tracking. Both are creating bullishness in the stock market currently but if GTX loses 3670 or VIX pops above 13.89, there will be Hell to pay in the stock market. If banks fail, then GTX and VIX fail, you will see huge numbers to the downside with stocks.

The bulls simply have to keep XLF above 41.02 in the morning and they will continue to control the show. If the banks fail out of the gate tomorrow, you can picture the stock market stumbling backwards and beginning to fall down the cellar steps.

XLF 41.02 and SPX 5452 tell you everything you need to know about the US stock market. Easy-peasy.

The bulls and bears will face each other in battle tomorrow; just like the Civil War days when the blue battled the gray. A lonely harmonica playing Shenandoah echoes across the valley as the bears plot their attack strategy against the banksters and the bulls try to figure a way to keep the XLF elevated.

6/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/28/24; 10:00 AM EST =
6/26/24; 3:58 PM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/26/24; 3:47 PM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/26/24; 2:54 PM EST = +45; signal line is +41
6/26/24; 9:58 AM EST = +29; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
6/25/24; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +40
6/23/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/21/24; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/20/24; 9:39 AM EST = +62; signal line is +39
6/20/24; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/18/24; 3:42 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the big upside rally continues. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 8 points above the signal line which is nothing to write home about. Note how the signal line is dead flat at +38 and the bulls and bears battle it out 8 points above and 8 points below. One side or the other will win going forward.

Banks, copper and volatility are all that matter. The bulls pumped the banks yesterday to go into the Juneteenth holiday on a happy note.

Bulls need higher copper; it is the missing piece to their puzzle. Bulls need CPER above 27.96 to declare that stocks will keep growing to the sky forever.

Bears need lower financials if they want to growl. Bears need XLF below 41.16 to damage the stock market. If banks fail, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play. If XLF loses 41.16 tomorrow, and the SPX falls below 5472 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

If the bears begin growling due to XLF failing below 41.16, watch volatility. If the VIX moves above 13.86 the bears are in business and the downside will have legs. The bulls have only one task to keep sending stocks higher and that is to push copper higher.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning. Enjoy the holiday and stock market with a picnic at Itchykoo Park. It's all too beautiful.

6/23/24; 7:00 PM EST =
6/20/24; 9:00 AM EST =
6/18/24; 3:42 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/18/24; 3:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/18/24; 11:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/16/24; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/14/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/13/24; 9:52 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market drama continues. Apple, AI hype, inflation data and the Fed all hit home runs this week so traders trip over each other to buy stocks at the ask with both fists. It is interesting that the banks and copper failed after Pope Powell brought the tablets down from On High creating the upside orgy.

The banks and copper are running the show right now (if the Fed is waiting too long to cut and are making an error you will see it occur with the banks in trouble going forward).

The quant is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 8 points below the signal line. The internal parameters will not latch to permit the move yet. The bulls keep pulling the rug out from the bears like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown. Will tomorrow be different?

XLF 41.24 and CPER 27.99 are key bull/bear lines in the sand. Despite the stock market floating higher, banks and copper want to pull it lower and both are creating negativity under the surface. Keybot the Quant will likely flip short tomorrow if the SPX drops below 5403 and remains below. So take a Sharpie and write that number on your forehead. The SPX begins at 5434 so bears need a 31-point drop.

Bulls can only take stocks higher if they push XLF above 41.24 and/or CPER above 28. Either one will do and create a leg higher for US stocks into the weekend. If stocks are rallying but banks and copper do not turn bullish, the bulls got nothing and stocks should reverse and head lower giving-up any rally.

Thus, bears need SPX 5403 to sing a happy dance and flip the quant short while bulls need stronger banks and copper to continue the upside party. Shiny Happy People.

Happy Flag Day tomorrow. Happy Birthday to the US Army. And the Caissons Keep Rollin' Along. 

6/16/24; 7:00 PM EST =
6/14/24; 10:00 AM EST =
6/13/24; 9:52 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/13/24; 9:39 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37
6/12/24; 2:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
6/12/24; 2:30 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35
6/12/24; 2:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
6/12/24; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +34
6/11/24; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
6/10/24; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32
6/10/24; 3:04 PM EST = +62; signal line is +30
6/10/24; 2:28 PM EST = +46; signal line is +28
6/10/24; 1:50 PM EST = +62; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 1:08 PM EST = +46; signal line is +26
6/10/24; 12:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26
6/10/24; 11:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 11:33 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 10:27 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
6/10/24; 10:10 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 9:38 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
6/9/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28
6/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
6/7/24; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27
6/6/24; 2:28 PM EST = +48; signal line is +27
6/6/24; 2:14 PM EST = +32; signal line is +25
6/6/24; 1:31 PM EST = +48; signal line is +25
6/6/24; 12:24 PM EST = +32; signal line is +24
6/5/24; 2:15 PM EST = +32; signal line is +24; go long 5339; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +11.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side at SPX 5339 this afternoon. The choppy whipsaw action is nauseating but perhaps things will settle down after the Friday morning Jobs Report. Copper, retail stocks and banks are running the show. Despite the rally in stocks this morning, the algo was happy to remain short but tic, tac, toe, copper, retail, banks, and it was off to the races with a Caligula rally.

People are tripping over each other to buy stocks then run back to the altar to worship NVDA the golden bull. The bulls are back in charge with the algo number 24 points above the signal line. This morning it was 23 points below verifying the obscene choppiness. The plugs are pulled on many algo's since they cannot keep up with such horrible price action but Keybot the Quant continues to ride the bucking bronco.

Commodities are the only thing holding the stock market back so GTX above 3653 will create another strong leg higher in stocks.

Bears need to reverse the trio of joy today sending the banksters, retail stocks (AMZN) and copper lower, specifically, XLF below 41.22, RTH below 201.60 and/or CPER below 28.12. Any 1 of the 3 turning bearish will stall the stock market rally. Stocks will continue floating higher if the 3 parameters remain bullish.

If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bearish, any 2, then consider the imminent turn to the short side to be back in play. If all 3 reverse into the bear camp, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the short side. Do you got all that? There will be a quiz tomorrow. Everyone is waiting for the Jobs Report.

On the last trade that ran for a couple days, both the algo program and actual trading lose a couple percent. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up a big +12%. The Keybot the Quant program is down a percent on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +3%. Keybot exited SH and entered SPY. The whipsaw action is getting old. Whip It, whip it good.

6/9/24; 7:00 PM EST =
6/7/24; 9:00 AM EST =
6/5/24; 2:15 PM EST = +48; signal line is +24; go long 5339; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +11.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +2.5%)
6/5/24; 1:27 PM EST = +32; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
6/5/24; 11:43 AM EST = +16; signal line is +23
6/4/24; 3:06 PM EST = +0; signal line is +23
6/4/24; 2:47 PM EST = +16; signal line is +24
6/4/24; 11:03 AM EST = +0; signal line is +24
6/4/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +25
6/3/24; 2:37 PM EST = +32; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
6/3/24; 1:24 PM EST = +16; signal line is +26
6/3/24; 1:13 PM EST = +2; signal line is +27
6/3/24; 12:44 PM EST = +16; signal line is +28
6/3/24; 12:24 PM EST = +2; signal line is +29; go short 5247; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +4.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side at munchtime at SPX 5247. Commodities, banks and volatility jump into the bear camp creating negativity and causing the quant to flip short but, like Friday, the bulls pump the banks and the Fed places its jackboot on the throat of volatility to send stocks higher late-day. Commodities remain in the bear camp but copper is in the bull camp.

The quant is champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the long side with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. Hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line. Turn, Turn, Turn as Roger plays his Rickenbacker. The internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move to the long side so, for now, the robot remains short. The erratic markets are getting old. 

If the SPX floats higher tomorrow, above 5302 (+19 points higher on the S&P futures), Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the long side. Bulls need stronger retail stocks and commodities. Bulls need RTH above 201.50 and GTX above 3655 to create strong upside joy for stocks.

The bears must prevent the SPX from achieving 5302 with all their might. At the same time, bears must pull XLF below 41.22 and/or push VIX above 14.01 to create negativity in stocks.

If a gap-up move occurs tomorrow morning, say about 10 points up at the open or more, the robot will likely wait about 90 minutes before committing to the long side. Bulls will be much better off to slowly and steadily float higher to the SPX 5302 target rather than an immediate gap-up which would be suspect and trigger the gap-up timer.

On the last trade, that ran for only 3 trading hours, the quant program and actual trading each lose about a half percent. On the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up +10%, the quant program is up about +1% and the actual trading is up about +4% in 2024. Keybot exited QLD and entered SH dropping into the 1x non-leveraged ETF's due to the whipsaw action. Risk must me minimized due to the erratic price action. The 1x ETF's remain in play for the next 30 days.

6/9/24; 7:00 PM EST =
6/7/24; 9:00 AM EST =
6/3/24; 2:37 PM EST = +32; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
6/3/24; 1:24 PM EST = +16; signal line is +26
6/3/24; 1:13 PM EST = +2; signal line is +27
6/3/24; 12:44 PM EST = +16; signal line is +28
6/3/24; 12:24 PM EST = +2; signal line is +29; go short 5247; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +4.2%)
6/3/24; 11:30 AM EST = +16; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
6/3/24; 9:42 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31
6/2/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +46; signal line is +32
5/31/24; 3:54 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32; go long 5266; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.8%; Actual results for 2024 = +4.7%)