STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 12 points below the signal line.  That is not a lot so the caution flag is out. The bulls pumped retail stocks higher on Friday to stop the selling in the stock market and begin fighting back.

RTH 205.14 is the bull/bear land in the sand with price at 205.27 in the bull camp but it is a game of pennies. RTH is above 205.14 so the bulls are back in the game pinning their hopes on dip-buyers. If RTH drops below 205.14, the stock market is toast again and equities will resume the path lower.

Bears also need weaker banks and utilities to create further stock market carnage but both sectors have been joyous over the last month.

The bulls need stronger chips and commodities and lower volatility. All 3 are creating stock market negativity. SOX 5320, GTX 3666 and VIX 13.91 are the key bull/bear lines in the sand. If any 1 of the 3 turn bullish (remember, the VIX moves inversely to stocks), consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and the quant is likely getting ready to flip long. The SPX would need to be above 5488 heading higher.

Bulls need to maintain strength in retail stocks and pump them up higher in the days ahead (watch Scamazon) at the same time pumping chips and commodities higher and volatility lower.

Bears need to push RTH below 205.14 or they will begin to fold like a cheap suit.

8/4/24; 7:00 PM EST =
8/2/24; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/24; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/24; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +13
7/26/24; 10:41 AM EST = +1; signal line is +14
7/26/24; 10:00 AM EST = -15; signal line is +15
7/24/24; 9:58 AM EST = -15; signal line is +18
7/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +1; signal line is +20
7/22/24; 11:53 AM EST = +17; signal line is +22
7/22/24; 11:34 AM EST = +1; signal line is +23
7/22/24; 9:42 AM EST = +17; signal line is +26
7/21/24; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +27

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 26 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising. Volatility, copper, commodities and chips are all that matter. Doctor Copper is lying on a gurney receiving intravenous fluids.

VIX 13.80 is the bull/bear line in the sand so the bears appear to be comfortable at wreaking havoc beginning the new week at 16.52. Bulls got absolutely nothing unless they can push the VIX back below 13.80.

GTX 3685 (commodities), SOX 5372 (semiconductors) and RTH (retail stocks; Scamazon) 205.02 are key bull/bear lines in the sand that the quant is tracking currently. These Three Stooges will tell the tale in the days ahead. GTX and SOX are in the bear camp while RTH is in the bull camp.

Bears need VIX, GTX and SOX to  remain in the bear camp while dragging RTH below 205.02 to create stock market carnage and blood on the sidewalks of Wall Street.

Bulls need either VIX below 13.80, GTX above 3685, and/or SOX above 5372 to stop the stock market selling. Any 1 of the 3 will be enough to stall the down slide in stocks. If 2 of the 3 flip into the bull camp, the bulls will be in position to win back market leadership. Bulls are toast if volatility, commodities and chips remain bearish and weaken further. Bulls must hold the line with RTH 205.02, otherwise they will be slashed severely by the bear claws.

The chips failed on Friday creating the leg lower in stocks. Thus, watch SOX 5372 like a hawk. You can check semi names in the pre-market to gauge where the index is headed; also check SMH and XSD. The bulls need Jensen (NVDA) to spray paint a Cheerio's box black and wave it in the air telling everyone another new chip is on the way to save the stock market.

RTH only needs to drop about a half percent to create more stock market mayhem. AMZN is soiling the sheets dropping from over 200 to 180 in only 7 days, now at 183, teasing a -10% correction perhaps on its way to a -20% bear market. Amazon's trading in the pre-market will likely dictate where RTH goes after the opening bell.

There is likely an exciting week ahead and it will be interesting too see what the 1's and 0's do. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. Watch the chips and retail stocks.

A bear wants retail stocks and Scamazon to collapse to guarantee more stock market carnage. A bull wants the semiconductors to recover immediately and start rallying again to save the day.

8/4/24; 7:00 PM EST =
8/2/24; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/24; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/24; 7:00 PM EST =
7/26/24; 10:00 AM EST =
7/21/24; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +27
7/19/24; 10:24 AM EST = +1; signal line is +29
7/18/24; 3:39 PM EST = +17; signal line is +31
7/18/24; 2:45 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31
7/18/24; 2:10 PM EST = +17; signal line is +33
7/18/24; 1:52 PM EST = +31; signal line is +34
7/18/24; 12:37 PM EST = +17; signal line is +35
7/18/24; 11:15 AM EST = +1; signal line is +36
7/18/24; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +37
7/17/24; 2:26 PM EST = +31; signal line is +38

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short at SPX 5615 after yesterday's opening bell as volatility jumps higher. The failure of copper and commodities, and spike in volatility, creates the drop in the stock market. However, by the end of the session, the commodities recover. Chips also create negativity but they remain in the bull camp by a hair. The algo goes wild yesterday printing a dozen numbers including one pre-scheduled number.

Volatility, copper, commodities and semiconductors are running the stock market show.

VIX 13.73 is the bull/bear line in the sand with price at the 14.41 palindrome right now in real-time so this is a check in the bear column.

CPER 27.95 is the line in the sand and price is at 27.45 in the bear camp creating stock market negativity. Copper futures need to gain +1.8% to get the bulls back on track but copper is trading flat overnight. Check that; copper now slipping -0.5%. Dr Copper is puking in the bathroom.

GTX 3686.25 is the line in the sand and price is at 3689.59 a game of pennies. Commodities are a hair positive in the bull camp but flip a coin with this metric.

SOX 5385 is the line in the sand and price is at 5409 in the bull camp. If SOX loses 5385, it is lights-out for the stock market.

The bears need copper and volatility to remain in their camp while pulling GTX and SOX lower to create more negativity. The bulls need GTX and SOX to remain in their camp while pushing the VIX lower and copper higher. Flip a coin since 3 of the 4 parameters can change and flip-flop back and forth today.

On the last trade, that ran for about 6 weeks, a big bull run, the quant program and actual trading each gain +5%. For the year, the SPX is up a huge +18% with the bulls cheering that the party will continue all year long. The quant program is up +4% so far this year and the actual trading gains about +8% in 2024 thus far. The benchmark S&P 500 is outperforming the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant by 10 percentage points with half the year in the bag. Keybot exited SPY and entered SDS rotating back into the 2x leveraged ETF's since the whipsaw timer has expired.

VIX 13.73, GTX 3686 and SOX 5385 will tell the market story today.

7/21/24; 7:00 PM EST =
7/17/24; 2:26 PM EST = +31; signal line is +38
7/17/24; 2:11 PM EST = +17; signal line is +38
7/17/24; 12:38 PM EST = +31; signal line is +39
7/17/24; 12:13 PM EST = +17; signal line is +39
7/17/24; 12:02 PM EST = +31; signal line is +40
7/17/24; 10:11 AM EST = +17; signal line is +40
7/17/24; 9:53 AM EST = +31; signal line is +41
7/17/24; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +41; go short 5615; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +4.1%)(Actual results this trade = +5.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +7.5%)
7/17/24; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains long
7/17/24; 6:54 AM EST = +17; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/24; 4:39 AM EST = +31; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/17/24; 4:01 AM EST = +17; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/16/24; 9:36 PM EST = +31; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/15/24; 2:27 PM EST = +61; signal line is +46
7/15/24; 1:38 PM EST = +45; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/14/24; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +45
7/12/24; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +44
7/7/24; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +43
7/5/24; 9:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +43
7/3/24; 9:36 AM EST = +61; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 10:20 AM EST = +45; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 10:11 AM EST = +29; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
7/2/24; 9:59 AM EST = +45; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 9:36 AM EST = +61; signal line is +40
6/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +45; signal line is +40
6/28/24; 3:56 PM EST = +45; signal line is +41
6/28/24; 3:06 PM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/28/24; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/28/24; 9:37 AM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/27/24; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/26/24; 3:58 PM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/26/24; 3:47 PM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/26/24; 2:54 PM EST = +45; signal line is +41
6/26/24; 9:58 AM EST = +29; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
6/25/24; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +40
6/23/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/21/24; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/20/24; 9:39 AM EST = +62; signal line is +39
6/20/24; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/18/24; 3:42 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/18/24; 3:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/18/24; 11:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/16/24; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/14/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/13/24; 9:52 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/13/24; 9:39 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37
6/12/24; 2:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
6/12/24; 2:30 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35
6/12/24; 2:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
6/12/24; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +34
6/11/24; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
6/10/24; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32
6/10/24; 3:04 PM EST = +62; signal line is +30
6/10/24; 2:28 PM EST = +46; signal line is +28
6/10/24; 1:50 PM EST = +62; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 1:08 PM EST = +46; signal line is +26
6/10/24; 12:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26
6/10/24; 11:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 11:33 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 10:27 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
6/10/24; 10:10 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 9:38 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
6/9/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28
6/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
6/7/24; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27
6/6/24; 2:28 PM EST = +48; signal line is +27
6/6/24; 2:14 PM EST = +32; signal line is +25
6/6/24; 1:31 PM EST = +48; signal line is +25
6/6/24; 12:24 PM EST = +32; signal line is +24
6/5/24; 2:15 PM EST = +32; signal line is +24; go long 5339; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +11.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bull market party lives on, however, the robot is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number drops to +31 out of the gate this morning now 15 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move.

Copper and commodities fail this morning so the expectation was for the stock market to deteriorate. Instead, the SPX prints a new all-time high at 5667.20 and new all-time high at 5669.67. Go figure. Doctor Copper is lying on a gurney but nothing will stop stocks going to the moon. The bank earnings are joyous catapulting XLF skyward creating stock market bullishness.

Here is what matters; CPER 27.99, GTX 3686, VIX 13.72 and SPX 5639.

CPER (copper) and GTX (commodities index) are in the bear camp and should be creating a pall on the stock market. VIX is below 13.72 creating the bullish lift in stocks.

Whittle the action down to CPER 27.99, SPX 5639 and VIX 13.72.

Keybot the Quant will likely flip short tomorrow morning if the SPX fails below 5639 trending lower. This represents a 28-point drop in the S&P futures overnight.

If CPER moves above 27.99, all bets are off and the bulls will resume the upside in stocks. This represents a +0.9% rally in copper futures overnight.

If VIX pops above 13.72, the bears are growling bigtime and a drop through SPX 5639 would be guaranteed. Is all that clear as mud?

Bears win big with SPX below 5639. If copper futures rally more than +0.9% overnight, the bulls are back in biz and will be kicking sand in the bears face. If VIX spikes above 13.72, the stock market will begin falling in earnest. Lots of fun on tap for tomorrow; a decision is needed. That is a look at Both Sides Now. What side are you on? 

7/21/24; 7:00 PM EST =
7/17/24; 9:00 AM EST =
7/16/24; 9:36 AM EST = +31; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/15/24; 2:27 PM EST = +61; signal line is +46
7/15/24; 1:38 PM EST = +45; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/14/24; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +45
7/12/24; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +44
7/7/24; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +43
7/5/24; 9:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +43
7/3/24; 9:36 AM EST = +61; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 10:20 AM EST = +45; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 10:11 AM EST = +29; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
7/2/24; 9:59 AM EST = +45; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 9:36 AM EST = +61; signal line is +40
6/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +45; signal line is +40