STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Semiconductors jump into the bear camp to start the week but copper jumps into the bull camp each nullifying the other. Today plays out with the chips turning bullish again so the bulls are throwing confetti swigging down Fed wine like it is water. The bulls remain in control with the algo number 16 points above the signal line.

Traders are awaiting NVDA earnings tomorrow after the closing bell, only 22 hours away, since Emperor Jensen will tell global traders how to trade stocks. The stock market battle is currently between copper and chips in the bull camp creating upside joy, and, commodities and volatility in the bear camp creating downside pressure in the stock market.

Bulls will win big if the VIX drops below 14.71. Stocks are stalled currently because VIX remains in the bear camp. There will be no further rally in stocks unless the VIX drops below 14.71. If stocks rally tomorrow, but the VIX does not drop below 14.71, it is a bull trap and stocks will reverse and drop. If stocks rally and the VIX loses 14.71, it is off to the races higher for stocks. Bulls will also benefit bigtime if GTX moves above 3612.

Bears need SOX below 5132 and/or CPER below 26.58 to create stock market negativity. Obviously, if NVIDIA soils the sheets tomorrow evening, SOX will collapse, and, conversely, if NVDA yearnings are a big hit, the SOX and stock market will rally to the sky. Copper futures need to drop -0.9% overnight for CPER to hit the 26.58 bull/bear line in the sand so that bears watching.

If either SOX or CPER turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to be in play. If 1 of the 2 occur, and the SPX drops below 5593, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The SPX drop represents a -32 point drop in the S&P futures overnight. Tomorrow may be an eventful day, however, the NVDA show does not begin until after the closing bell.

It could not be easier. If VIX drops below 14.71, it is a bull victory and stocks will move higher with traders buying equities with both fists at the ask. If either SOX drops below 5132 or CPER below 26.58 (-0.9% in copper futures), there will be Hell to pay in the stock market as stocks begin crumbling lower.

9/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/24; 10:00 AM EST =
8/27/24; 12:36 PM EST = +34; signal line is +18
8/27/24; 11:31 AM EST = +18; signal line is +16
8/27/24; 11:02 AM EST = +34; signal line is +14
8/27/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +13
8/26/24; 12:45 PM EST = +17; signal line is +11
8/26/24; 12:28 PM EST = +1; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains long
8/26/24; 12:20 PM EST = +17; signal line is +9
8/26/24; 11:03 AM EST = +1; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains long
8/26/24; 10:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +6
8/26/24; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +5
8/25/24; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +3

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after Pope Powell pumps the stock market higher with promises of rate cuts as far as the eye can see. Powell, after a long bender listening to Midnight Oil tunes, proclaims that 'the time has come' to goose the markets further into the stratosphere making the rich richer. It is fun to watch the corrupt crony American casino. The algo number is only 14 points above the signal line but it is plenty for the bulls to remain in control of the stock market. Caution, however, is warranted.

The VIX 14.82 bull/bear line in the sand identified by the quant, the stock market rudder, remains dominant and the key metric impacting stock market direction. VIX will begin the new week at 15.86 in the bear camp causing market negativity. Bulls will celebrate if VIX drops below 14.82.

Bulls need copper and commodities to rally for the stock market to further rally. First, bulls need the VIX below 14.82, then CPER (copper) above 26.59, then GTX (commodities) above 3615. These positive developments will send stocks to the moon with bulls dancing on tabletops and more Wall Street analysts calling for SPX 6,000 within the next 17 weeks.

Conversely, bears need to maintain the higher volatility and send the VIX higher over 20, while pulling the chips back into their camp. Semiconductors stuck a shiv into the bears ribs last week allowing the bulls to run stocks higher. Bears need the SOX to drop below 5125 which will usher-in stock market negativity. The quant will likely want to flip short if the chips collapse but on Monday the robot likely needs the SPX to drop below 5585 heading lower to flip short. The S&P 500 starts the week at 5635 so that would be 50 points of downside. This would occur if the VIX spikes higher.

Easy-peasy. Bulls need lower vol and stronger copper and commodities and the futures markets overnight will hint at this direction forward. Bears need weaker chips to create a new round of stock market carnage so watch SOX, XSD, SMH, NVDA, INTC, AMD, etc... VIX 14.82 remains the key metric right now and is currently steering the stock market ship into Troubled Waters.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday the other on Friday. The month of trading (EOM) ends on Friday and September trading begins next Tuesday after the Labor Day holiday on Monday. Stocks tend to be bullish the two days in front of a holiday weekend (this Thursday and Friday).

9/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/24; 10:00 AM EST =
8/27/24; 10:00 AM EST =
8/25/24; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +3
8/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +2
8/22/24; 3:28 PM EST = +1; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains long
8/20/24; 3:06 AM EST = +17; signal line is -1
8/19/24; 10:51 AM EST = +31; signal line is -2
8/19/24; 3:06 AM EST = +17; signal line is -4
8/18/24; 7:00 PM EST = +31; signal line is -5

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo spitting-out 7 numbers on Friday including the 2 pre-scheduled numbers. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 36 points above the signal line. VIX falls below the 14.85 bull/bear line in the sand to 14.80 so the bulls are throwing confetti singing Oh Happy Day.

VIX is the current rudder for the stock market ship. Bulls win below VIX 14.85. Bears win with VIX above 14.85. Bears would also need weaker chips and retail stocks to regain control. Retail earnings and data are on tap this week.

The longer that VIX remains below 14.85, the more likely that the SPX will travel back to the record highs. Bulls need stronger copper and commodities if they want to create a sustainable rally.

If VIX moves back above 14.85, the stock market relief rally is over. VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST Monday morning.

8/25/24; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/24; 7:00 PM EST = +31; signal line is -5
8/16/24; 3:59 PM EST = +31; signal line is -7
8/16/24; 3:35 PM EST = +17; signal line is -8
8/16/24; 2:41 PM EST = +31; signal line is -8
8/16/24; 1:56 PM EST = +17; signal line is -9
8/16/24; 11:45 AM EST = +31; signal line is -11
8/16/24; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is -12
8/16/24; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is -12
8/15/24; 10:37 AM EST = +17; signal line is -13; go long 5520; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.8%)(Actual results this trade = +3.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday before munch time at SPX 5520. The relief rally off the bottom turns out to be a face-ripper. Generally, the US stock market collapsed -10% off the all-time record highs last month only to recover +8% in a heartbeat. The robots are triggering off each data point. The bulls are in control with the algo number 30 points above the signal line.

Financials led the way higher as you saw with XLF. Yesterday, retail sales hit the ball out of the park and the WMT earnings release promises a big Q4 (even though the numbers are based on prices rising in an inflationary environment while the actual 'unit' sales decrease; in addition, the top 20% of Americans on the wealth and career scale account for nearly one-half (50%) of the retail sales; isn't crony capitalism sickening?). The chips join the party sending US stocks to the moon. XLF, RTH and SOX are the heroes for the bulls.

The quant targets volatility as the next hurdle. Write VIX 14.83 on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. Stocks will lock-in a bigtime up move, probably towards the record highs, if the VIX drops below 14.83. Right now, real-time, the VIX is trading at 15.44 so bulls need another 61 pennies of downside. If the bulls are unable to push the VIX below 14.83 (yesterday they tried but failed; another test is likely on tap today), the bulls got buptkis, and stocks will reverse and become soggy again.

The bears need to reverse the bullish mojo by sending SOX below 5095, RTH below 203.21 and/or XLF below 42.15. The banks have exploded higher so it may take a few days for XLF to turn negative. Bears need either SOX or RTH to turn bearish to stop the upside rally in the stock market.

Thus, stocks will continue higher with bulls throwing confetti if the VIX drops below 14.83. Conversely, the stock market rally will end if SOX falls below 5095 and/or RTH below 203.21. If both turn negative, Keybot the Quant will likely be in position to flip back to the short side.

On the last trade, that ran for a month, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains +3%. It is a shame that the relief rally is a vertical rocket ride since that takes away much of the downside gains. Nonetheless, for the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +16%, the Keybot the Quant program is up +6%, and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +11%. The actual trading is finally gaining on the benchmark now only underperforming by 5 percentage points. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

Watch the VIX 14.83 bull/bear line in the sand; it is all that matters right now in real-time. VIX is at 15.43 having breakfast in the bear camp. Keybot the Quant prints a couple of pre-scheduled numbers over the next couple hours.

8/18/24; 7:00 PM EST =
8/16/24; 10:00 AM EST =
8/16/24; 9:00 AM EST =
8/15/24; 10:37 AM EST = +17; signal line is -13; go long 5520; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.8%)(Actual results this trade = +3.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.8%)
8/15/24; 9:42 AM EST = +17; signal line is -14 but algorithm remains short
8/15/24; 9:36 AM EST = +1; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains short
8/11/24; 7:00 PM EST = -15; signal line is -14
8/8/24; 1:16 PM EST = -15; signal line is -14
8/8/24; 1:08 PM EST = -31; signal line is -13
8/8/24; 12:59 PM EST = -15; signal line is -12
8/8/24; 12:43 PM EST = -31; signal line is -11
8/8/24; 9:56 AM EST = -15; signal line is -9
8/7/24; 12:52 PM EST = -31; signal line is -9
8/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = -15; signal line is -7
8/6/24; 3:04 PM EST = -31; signal line is -5
8/6/24; 2:52 PM EST = -15; signal line is -4
8/5/24; 9:36 AM EST = -31; signal line is -3
8/4/24; 7:00 PM EST = -15; signal line is -1
8/2/24; 3:32 PM EST = -15; signal line is +0
8/2/24; 1:55 PM EST = -31; signal line is +1
8/2/24; 11:41 AM EST = -15; signal line is +4
8/2/24; 11:14 AM EST = -31; signal line is +5
8/2/24; 9:00 AM EST = -15; signal line is +7
8/1/24; 3:31 PM EST = -15; signal line is +8
7/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +1; signal line is +10
7/30/24; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +10
7/29/24; 11:45 AM EST = +1; signal line is +11
7/29/24; 9:36 AM EST = -15; signal line is +12
7/28/24; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +13
7/26/24; 10:41 AM EST = +1; signal line is +14
7/26/24; 10:00 AM EST = -15; signal line is +15
7/24/24; 9:58 AM EST = -15; signal line is +18
7/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +1; signal line is +20
7/22/24; 11:53 AM EST = +17; signal line is +22
7/22/24; 11:34 AM EST = +1; signal line is +23
7/22/24; 9:42 AM EST = +17; signal line is +26
7/21/24; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +27
7/19/24; 10:24 AM EST = +1; signal line is +29
7/18/24; 3:39 PM EST = +17; signal line is +31
7/18/24; 2:45 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31
7/18/24; 2:10 PM EST = +17; signal line is +33
7/18/24; 1:52 PM EST = +31; signal line is +34
7/18/24; 12:37 PM EST = +17; signal line is +35
7/18/24; 11:15 AM EST = +1; signal line is +36
7/18/24; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +37
7/17/24; 2:26 PM EST = +31; signal line is +38
7/17/24; 2:11 PM EST = +17; signal line is +38
7/17/24; 12:38 PM EST = +31; signal line is +39
7/17/24; 12:13 PM EST = +17; signal line is +39
7/17/24; 12:02 PM EST = +31; signal line is +40
7/17/24; 10:11 AM EST = +17; signal line is +40
7/17/24; 9:53 AM EST = +31; signal line is +41
7/17/24; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +41; go short 5615; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +4.1%)(Actual results this trade = +5.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +7.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo number is only one measly point below the signal line. Flip a coin. The bulls pumped banks last week which allowed the stock market to catch its breath and stabilize. The battle picks up in the same place tomorrow with banks, retail stocks and commodities the three main stock market drivers currently according to the quant.

XLF 41.99, RTH 203.50, and GTX 3634 are the key bull/bear lines in the sand directly impacting stock market direction. XLF is creating bullish joy in stocks while RTH and GTX create negativity.

Bears need to pull XLF back below 41.99 pronto, otherwise, the stock market is going to keep moving higher. Bulls need RTH above 203.50 that will create bigtime upside joy in the stock market. Watch Scamazon and there are retail earnings out this week that will tell the tale such as HD. Bulls need GTX above 3634 so watch the commodities. If either RTH or GTX turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play.

Bears need the banks, insurance companies, and credit card companies to drop to maintain control of the stock market. Bulls need stronger retail stocks and commodities to run the stock market higher and higher.

Watch XLF like a hawk. If XLF remains above 41.99, the bulls will be slapping the bears in the face all day long. If XLF falls below 41.99, trending lower, that will be the start of a new move lower for the stock market. If XLF hesitantly falls through 41.99, then recovers back above, then dips below for a little while, then back above, etc..., this behavior will hint that the quant is likely ready to flip long.

Keybot the Quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers both on Friday morning one before the opening bell and one after. Speaking of bells, William Bell and the Poison in the Well.

8/18/24; 7:00 PM EST =
8/16/24; 10:00 AM EST =
8/16/24; 9:00 AM EST =
8/11/24; 7:00 PM EST = -15; signal line is -14
8/8/24; 1:16 PM EST = -15; signal line is -14
8/8/24; 1:08 PM EST = -31; signal line is -13
8/8/24; 12:59 PM EST = -15; signal line is -12
8/8/24; 12:43 PM EST = -31; signal line is -11
8/8/24; 9:56 AM EST = -15; signal line is -9
8/7/24; 12:52 PM EST = -31; signal line is -9
8/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = -15; signal line is -7
8/6/24; 3:04 PM EST = -31; signal line is -5
8/6/24; 2:52 PM EST = -15; signal line is -4
8/5/24; 9:36 AM EST = -31; signal line is -3
8/4/24; 7:00 PM EST = -15; signal line is -1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as stocks take a dip lower last week. The bears remain in control but the algo number is only 14 points below the signal line so the bulls remain in the game.

Financials led the way higher for the stock market to top-out and the quant has them on the radar again tracking XLF 41.96 as the bull/bear line in the sand. Price begins the new week of trading at 42.09 only 13 measly cents in the bull camp creating stock market positivity. Bears need XLF below 41.96 to kick-in another leg lower for stocks. As financials go, so goes the stock market.

Scamazon soiled the sheets after earnings last week dragging down RTH so this bears watching. If bulls can mount a comeback they will need RTH above 204.70 (now at 201.62). A lot of that depends on AMZN so watch that in the pre-market. The bulls need RTH above 204.70 if they want to wrestle back control of the stock market.

It is about the banks to start the week. If XLF remains above 41.96, the stock market will stabilize and if XLF begins tracking higher, so will stocks. If XLF falls below 41.96, the Wall Street carnage will continue. The stock market remains shaky, unstable and moody, like Jack Kerouac.

8/11/24; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/24; 7:00 PM EST = -15; signal line is -1
8/2/24; 3:32 PM EST = -15; signal line is +0
8/2/24; 1:55 PM EST = -31; signal line is +1
8/2/24; 11:41 AM EST = -15; signal line is +4
8/2/24; 11:14 AM EST = -31; signal line is +5
8/2/24; 9:00 AM EST = -15; signal line is +7
8/1/24; 3:31 PM EST = -15; signal line is +8
7/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +1; signal line is +10
7/30/24; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +10
7/29/24; 11:45 AM EST = +1; signal line is +11
7/29/24; 9:36 AM EST = -15; signal line is +12
7/28/24; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +13