STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday at munch time at SPX 5950. Choppy sloppy price action occurs as commodities flutter to and fro. The bulls have commodes, volatility and retail in their camp creating buoyancy in the stock market. Semiconductors and copper are in the bear camp the two key negatives limiting the upside for bulls.

Thus, the bulls need SOX above 5077 to prove that they can create another leg higher for stocks. If you are bullish and see SOX move above 5077, you can start throwing confetti. If bearish, you need to hold the line at SOX 5077.

The bears need to pull commodities, volatility and/or retail into their camp to create negativity in equities and wrestle back control of the stock market. The bears need GTX below 3565, VIX above 17.73, and/or RTH below 219.05. Any 1 of the 3 will place the imminent turn notation in the title line and position the robot to flip back to the short side. The degree of potential negativity in the stock market is directly correlated to these 3 parameters turning bearish. If the three remain bullish, the bulls will be sinking a happy song.

Pay attention to SOX 5077 since a lot is riding on that number. Also, GTX 3565 (you can follow it on stockcharts.com with $GTX). The market is a coin-flip these days but the battle between chips and commodes will tell you who wins.

On the last trade, that barely lasts a week, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent. For the year, with December drawing close, the benchmark SPX is up a huge +25%. The algorithm program is up +10% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +18%. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO.

Keybot the Quant prints a pre-scheduled number this morning shortly after the opening bell.

11/24/24; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/24; 10:00 AM EST =
11/21/24; 12:45 PM EST = +32; signal line is +26; go long 5950; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +24.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +9.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +17.5%)
11/21/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
11/19/24; 1:06 PM EST = +18; signal line is +25
11/19/24; 12:29 PM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
11/19/24; 11:06 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24
11/19/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
11/19/24; 9:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +22
11/17/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +21
11/15/24; 10:01 AM EST = +18; signal line is +20; go short 5899; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +23.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +10.6%)(Actual results this trade = +5.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +19.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 5899 at the 10:01 AM EST palindrome on Friday morning. The robot was in position to go short anytime this week but it took a while for the internal parameters to set up correctly to trigger the move. The algo number is only 2 measly points below the signal line so the bears have more work to do to prove that they can take the stock market lower.

In a nutshell, chips, copper and commodities took the pipe creating market angst. Utes and volatility remain in the bull camp trying to keep stocks buoyant.

UTIL dropped to the critical 1018 line in the sand but the bulls bounced it. VIX ran higher to the critical 17.55 line in the sand but the bulls pushed it back down. The quant is an octopus with tentacles reaching out and tapping lines in the sand to determine the direction of the stock market.

For the week ahead, the UTIL 1018 number is meaningless and replaced with 997 for the whole week and the week after, with the Thanksgiving Day holiday, the 997 will be meaningless and replaced with 1004. UTIL was pumped to 1034 last week to stave off the bears but watch the 997-1004 level the rest of the month because if price fails into this range, there will be Hell to pay in the stock market.

In addition to UTIL 997, bears need VIX above 17.55 to increase the selling pressure.

The bulls need stronger chips, copper and commodities and to push SOX above 5152, CPER above 27.30 and/or GTX above 3565, respectively, and each may prove to be a difficult task.

Boiling it down to something simple, watch chips and volatility. If VIX pops above 17.55, stocks are going to drop like rocks. If SOX pops above 5152, the bulls are back in business, will stabilize the stock market, and start thinking about moving higher again.

On the last trade that ran for about 2 weeks, the quant program gains about +3% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains about +6%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up a humongous +24%. Wowza. The quant algorithm program is up about +11% on the year thus far and the actual trading is up +19% now within 5 percentage-points of the benchmark with 6 weeks remaining in the year, but no one is complaining about a +19% return. Keybot the Quant exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

Bears need higher volatility and weaker utilities and retail stocks. Bulls need stronger chips, copper and commodities (three weak signs that growth is not as great as people are hyping and if rates are on the rise that is a signal of fear of the growing debt in government and society and not a sign of a robust US and global economy ahead).

11/17/24; 7:00 PM EST =
11/15/24; 10:01 AM EST = +18; signal line is +20; go short 5899; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +23.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +10.6%)(Actual results this trade = +5.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +19.2%)
11/15/24; 9:41 AM EST = +18; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
11/14/24; 3:58 PM EST = +2; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
11/11/24; 11:12 AM EST = +18; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/11/24; 10:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +22
11/11/24; 9:55 AM EST = +18; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/10/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +22
11/8/24; 10:11 AM EST = +34; signal line is +21
11/8/24; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +21
11/8/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +20
11/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +20
11/6/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +19
11/6/24; 3:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +18
11/4/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +17
11/3/24; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 1:30 PM EST = +4; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 12:09 PM EST = +20; signal line is +18
11/1/24; 11:52 AM EST = +4; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 11:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +19
11/1/24; 10:28 AM EST = +4; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 10:26 AM EST = +20; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +20; go long 5736; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +20.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.1%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +7.8%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +13.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the cat and mouse game with copper and commodities continues.  According to the quant, the only metrics that matter to stock market direction currently are copper, commodities, utilities, chips and volatility, in that order of importance. Everything else is noise.

You can see that the bulls lose ground with the algo number only 13 points above the signal line. Copper and commodities failed on Friday creating the drop. For the bulls to continue the rally, they must push CPER back above 27.40 and/or GTX above 3573. Both will be needed if bulls expect to run stocks far higher. If both or one remain in the bear camp, stocks will not make much headway higher. Bulls will need a +1.1% gain in copper futures overnight Sunday into Monday morning if they want to maintain buoyancy in the stock market. 

Utilities are back in play. UTIL 1018.46 is the bull/bear line in the sand for all of the week ahead. If this would have failed before Friday's close, the bears would be singing songs of joy all weekend long. Alas, the bulls know that they have to keep utes buoyant if they want stocks to go up so they goosed UTIL up to 1032 to end last week. That keeps the bears at bay, for now. If UTIL loses 1018, and the SPX drops below 5977, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The bulls have the chips and volatility in their camp creating the upside orgy. Bears must pull SOX below 5143 and/or push VIX above 17.43 to start a significant pullback in stocks.

Thus, bears need weaker utes and they are in clover. Weaker semiconductors or higher volatility will also bolster the bear case and begin a soggy path ahead for stocks. The bulls must hold the line here, and they did with pumping the utilities on Friday, but to continue the vertical rally, they need stronger copper and commodities. Easy-peasy.

Keybot prints the Sunday pre-scheduled number tomorrow.

11/10/24; 7:00 PM EST =
11/8/24; 10:11 AM EST = +34; signal line is +21
11/8/24; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +21
11/8/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +20
11/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +20

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls came to play this week out of the gate on Monday morning. Donnie Trump is elected president creating a rally and then Pope Powell blesses stocks again yesterday. Everyone sees nothing but blue skies, rainbows and puppy dogs ahead.

Copper is persnickety this week with radical ups and downs. CPER 27.44 is the bull/bear line in the sand which may give-way after the opening bell in the US. The bears need a drop of -1.4% in copper futures that are down -1.9% in real-time so the bears are trying to stop the stock market rally by wrestling Dr Copper to the ground. China is going to release some policy decisions today that may send copper wildly one way or the other.

Start paying attention to utilities again. Utes got caught up in the AI hype due to the increased need for power. UTIL climbed higher like a tech stock. For all of next week, UTIL 1018.46 is a key bull/bear line in the sand. Watch price today because if UTIL finishes the week below 1018, that tells you that stocks will be soggy come Monday. If UTIL finishes the week above 1019, that tells you that the blue skies, rainbows and puppy dogs are real. Even the White Rabbit.

The bull are in charge with the algo number a big 44 points above the signal line. Weaker copper and utilities will cap the stock market rally but the bears will still need weakness in semiconductors, or a pop in volatility, to set the model up for a potential move to the short side.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning shortly after the opening bell. Copper, utilities, chips and volatility matter in that order for stock market direction; nothing else does. Watch the UTIL 1018 line in the sand today since it will tell you how things will set up for Monday.

11/10/24; 7:00 PM EST =
11/8/24; 10:00 AM EST =
11/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +20
11/6/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +19
11/6/24; 3:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +18
11/4/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +17
11/3/24; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side on Friday morning at SPX 5736 due to upside joy with copper and commodities, however, by the end of the session, both metrics had fallen on their sword turning bearish again. The algo number is 13 points below the signal line so the robot is already champing at the bit to flip back to the short side.

If the SPX drifts lower after Monday's opening bell dropping below 5723, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. The stock market is psycho these days so anything can happen. Watch S&P futures since a 6-point pullback would be enough to set the wheels in motion for the bears to smile.

The bulls have the ball but they are losing ground. Bulls need CPER above 27.41 and/or GTX above 3576, stronger copper and commodities, respectively. Watch copper futures because as copper goes, so goes the market. Bulls need higher copper and commodities to resume the upside rally while weaker retail stocks and banks will be new death nails in the bull coffin.

Whittling it down, watch SPX 5723 and copper futures. If you are bearish, you want a steady move lower in the SPX. If price gaps down at the opening bell, the quant will likely wait for about 90 minutes before taking action.

On the last trade, that ran for a week and one-half, the robot spit out a ton of numbers. It is a crazy tape. The quant program gains a percent and the actual trading gains a couple percent. For the year, with only 2 months remaining, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about +20%. The quant program is up about +8% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +14% continuing to underperform the benchmark by 6 percentage points. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SSO.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Markets remain a coin-flip as America barrels towards the Tuesday election.

11/10/24; 7:00 PM EST =
11/8/24; 10:00 AM EST =
11/3/24; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 1:30 PM EST = +4; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 12:09 PM EST = +20; signal line is +18
11/1/24; 11:52 AM EST = +4; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 11:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +19
11/1/24; 10:28 AM EST = +4; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 10:26 AM EST = +20; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +20; go long 5736; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +20.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.1%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +7.8%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +13.7%)
11/1/24; 9:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +19
10/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +4; signal line is +20
10/31/24; 3:14 PM EST = +4; signal line is +21
10/31/24; 10:38 AM EST = -12; signal line is +22
10/31/24; 10:25 AM EST = +4; signal line is +24
10/31/24; 9:36 AM EST = -12; signal line is +25
10/30/24; 3:59 PM EST = +4; signal line is +27
10/30/24; 3:51 PM EST = +36; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
10/30/24; 3:11 PM EST = +20; signal line is +28
10/30/24; 2:48 PM EST = +36; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
10/30/24; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +28
10/29/24; 2:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
10/29/24; 1:24 PM EST = +20; signal line is +26
10/29/24; 1:09 PM EST = +36; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
10/29/24; 10:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
10/29/24; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/29/24; 9:58 AM EST = +32; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/29/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +23
10/28/24; 3:19 PM EST = +32; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/28/24; 3:03 PM EST = +16; signal line is +23
10/28/24; 2:46 PM EST = +32; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/28/24; 2:06 PM EST = +16; signal line is +23
10/28/24; 1:42 PM EST = +32; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/28/24; 1:15 PM EST = +16; signal line is +24
10/28/24; 12:56 PM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/28/24; 11:41 AM EST = +16; signal line is +24
10/28/24; 10:27 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/28/24; 10:19 AM EST = +16; signal line is +25
10/28/24; 10:07 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/28/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +24
10/27/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/25/24; 10:06 AM EST = +46; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/25/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 3:59 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 3:51 PM EST = +46; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 2:48 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 2:37 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20
10/24/24; 2:22 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 2:18 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21
10/24/24; 2:12 PM EST = +0; signal line is +22
10/24/24; 2:04 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23
10/24/24; 1:54 PM EST = +0; signal line is +24
10/24/24; 1:42 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 1:29 PM EST = +14; signal line is +27
10/24/24; 11:52 AM EST = +0; signal line is +28
10/24/24; 11:06 AM EST = +16; signal line is +29
10/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
10/23/24; 12:56 PM EST = +14; signal line is +30
10/23/24; 12:31 PM EST = +30; signal line is +31; go short 5799; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +21.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +11.3%)