STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short going into the new week of trading. The bears are in control of stock market direction with the algo number 6 points below the signal line but that is nothing to write home about.

Bears need weaker chips to prove that they got game to the downside. If not, all it is, is talk. Bears need SOX below 5119. If that happens the stock market should fall apart going forward.

Bulls need to stop the selling with lower volatility and higher utilities. These two are strange bedfellows but hey, maybe they were looking for something strange. Bulls need VIX below the 16.61 palindrome pronto. A lower VIX will immediately stop the selling in the stock market. If VIX turns bullish and the SPX catapults higher on some kind of good news, Keybot the Quant may flip back to the long side above SPX 6115. It is a long-shot but they happen time to time.

Bulls need UTIL above 1034 to prove that stocks have game to the upside. This is a big deal. Lean in and listen closely, as if you heard someone mention EF Hutton's name, because for the next month, the important UTIL numbers are all above 1036. UTIL begins the week at 1023. If UTIL moves above 1034, the bulls are going to retake control of the stock market and run higher.

However, it may be short-lived because by Friday at 4 PM EST, at the end of the week, that number increases to 1067. Thus, even if UTIL can get above 1034 to help the bulls this week, it may not last long since 1067 for the week of 3/3/25 is a tall order. If UTIL remains below 1034 this week and for the next month, the stock market will remain soggy and weak.

If UTIL remains above 977, and below 1034, the stock market pullback will be modest, only the -3% to -5% variety that we almost have already. If UTIL drops from 1022 down through 1000 and then through 977, there is no hope for the stock market. There will only be carnage ahead with a -10% correction or -20% bear market or worse. Keep watching utilities.

It is really a fight between chips and vol if you want to look at something simple that will tell you the direction of the stock market for Monday. Bears win with SOX below 5119; stocks will drop like rocks. Bulls win with VIX below 16.61; stocks will stabilize and dip-buyers will begin sending equities higher.

If SOX remains above 5119, and VIX remains above 16.61, status quo, the stock market will chop along sideways. It will not tip its hand until SOX or VIX makes a decision. One of them will flinch.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning at 10 AM EST. Friday is EOM the last day of trading for February. March trading begins next Monday. The Boys Are Back in Town. If that chick don't wanna know, forget her.

3/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/25/25; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/25; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +22
2/21/25; 1:02 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21; go short 6050; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +2.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +2.3%; Actual results for 2025 = -0.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 6050 after all the drama this month. Volatility finally popped. Retail stocks collapse. The chips are down, in more ways than one, but SOX remains a hair above disaster at 5119.

Bears will create carnage into the closing bell if SOX loses 5119.

Bulls need UTIL above 1031-1033. If utes roll over and drop lower, and trend lower early next week, that tells you there will be Hell to pay going forward.

On the last trade, that ran for over a month, the quant program and actual trading each gain a couple percent. For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about +3%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm is down a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the algo is flat on the year thus far. Keybot exited IVV and entered SDS now back into the 2x leveraged ETF's since the whipsaw timer has expired.

2/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
2/21/25; 1:02 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21; go short 6050; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +2.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +2.3%; Actual results for 2025 = -0.4%)
2/21/25; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21
2/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21
2/18/25; 10:13 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21
2/18/25; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +21
2/16/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +20
2/14/25; 10:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/13/25; 10:02 AM EST = +46; signal line is +19
2/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = +14; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/7/25; 10:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
2/7/25; 9:49 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
2/7/25; 9:37 AM EST = +30; signal line is +20
2/7/25; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +20
2/7/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/5/25; 10:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/5/25; 10:14 AM EST = +16; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/5/25; 9:57 AM EST = +0; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/5/25; 9:54 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
2/5/25; 9:45 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21
2/5/25; 9:39 AM EST = +14; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 2:44 PM EST = +0; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 2:11 PM EST = +16; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 1:31 PM EST = +0; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 12:46 PM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 12:30 PM EST = +0; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 11:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
2/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
2/3/25; 3:06 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
2/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:52 PM EST = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:43 PM EST = +16; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:18 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:11 PM EST = +16; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 11:40 AM EST = +30; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 11:17 AM EST = +46; signal line is +31
1/29/25; 2:46 PM EST = +30; signal line is +28
1/29/25; 12:45 PM EST = +16; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
1/29/25; 12:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +25
1/29/25; 11:21 AM EST = +16; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
1/29/25; 10:02 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22
1/29/25; 9:47 AM EST = +16; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
1/28/25; 12:09 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21
1/28/25; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
1/27/25; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
1/27/25; 3:06 AM EST = +32; signal line is +19
1/26/25; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +19
1/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +19
1/23/25; 10:54 AM EST = +46; signal line is +18
1/22/25; 9:38 AM EST = +30; signal line is +17
1/21/25; 3:54 PM EST = +46; signal line is +16
1/21/25; 3:31 PM EST = +62; signal line is +15
1/21/25; 2:12 PM EST = +46; signal line is +15
1/21/25; 1:50 PM EST = +30; signal line is +14
1/21/25; 1:25 PM EST = +46; signal line is +14
1/21/25; 1:09 PM EST = +62; signal line is +12
1/21/25; 12:30 PM EST = +46; signal line is +10
1/19/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +7
1/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +6
1/15/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +5; go long 5920; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -4.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2025 = -2.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the wild stock market action continues. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6147.43 and new all-time closing high at 6144.15. The bears could have taken control several times over the last couple weeks but instead choose to be punched in the face by the bulls. The bulls control the stock market with the algo number 9 points above the signal line.

The SPX is not moving much, just enough to eek out record highs, and that is because the bulls cannot push retail stocks or utes higher. Conversely, the bears cannot gain downside traction because chips remain high, and receive an orgy boost this week, and volatility remains low. Thus, we have a standoff. One of those four parameters will flinch and tell you which way the stock market is headed.

Bulls need XRT above 79.49 and/or UTIL above 1031-1033. A continued stock market rally is guaranteed if either parameter turns bullish and if both turn bullish, stocks will explode higher.

Bears need SOX below 5133. 'Good luck wit dat' as they say in the Bronx. Bears need VIX above 16.59. Bears need one of these two metrics to turn bearish to place the robot in position to go short. If one of the two turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6112, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Thus, the imminent turn notation will remain in the title line since the stock market is erratic and unstable and a coin-flip.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number Friday morning. You can whittle the action down to retail stocks versus volatility. XRT and VIX enter the cage match. Two have entered but only one will exit. Bulls win big with XRT above 79.49. Bears win big and will put the model in position to go short if VIX pops above 16.59. One of them will shine and the other will be shinola. Soulshine by Warren playing his Martin, handmade in Pennsylvania.

2/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
2/21/25; 10:00 AM EST =
2/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21
2/18/25; 10:13 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21
2/18/25; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +21
2/16/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +20

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the year of choppy whipsaw slop and daily Powell, Donnie and AI drama continues. The bears have had their opportunities but after the last couple weeks of battle, the bulls have the ball firmly in hand and running downfield with the algo number 10 points above the signal line.

The caution and imminent turn notations must remain in play since the stock market is extremely erratic and unstable. The bulls simply need to cruise along with status quo while pushing retail stocks higher. Consumer spending is the linchpin holding the stock market together so it makes sense that the robot is tracking this metric, retail stocks, as the top influence on direction.

Bulls need XRT above 79.52 and there will be nothing but blue skies and rainbows for stocks going forward. XRT begins trading Tuesday morning at 79.36 in the bear camp so it is a game of pennies.

Bears have had chances to flip the model short but keep falling short. Bears played around too long and now the bulls are back to slapping them silly again. Bears need to keep retail stocks in their camp since that will create a cancer on the stock market. At the same time, bears need lower chips and higher volatility.

Bears need SOX below 5114, now at 5161, only a few bucks away, and/or VIX above 16.80, now at 15.42, only a stick or so away. VIX is the only thing trading currently as Americans enjoy a day off.

If the bears push either SOX or VIX into the bear camp, either one would do, and the SPX falls below 6108 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Retail stocks, chips and volatility are all that matter right now for the US stock market direction. You do not need to watch anything else. Watch XRT 79.52, SOX 5114, VIX 16.80, and SPX 6108. Easy-peasy. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on hump day morning and the other on Friday morning.

2/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
2/21/25; 10:00 AM EST =
2/19/25; 9:00 AM EST =
2/16/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +20
2/14/25; 10:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/13/25; 10:02 AM EST = +46; signal line is +19
2/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = +14; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the robot fights to go short but the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move. The quant wants to go short with the algo number 5 points below the signal line. Things are set-up like two prior times. If the SPX drops below 6020, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The S&P 500 begins at 6026 so watch the S&P futures overnight into Monday to see if -6 is on the tape.

The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. Bears need VIX above 16.87 to create stock market pain. Watch this overnight; the VIX trades at 3 AM EST. It's 3 AM. Bears need UTIL below 971 which opens a trap-door to prolonged stock market misery and carnage.

Bulls need to stop any negativity in the futures with all their might and at the same time keep VIX below 16.87, otherwise, they will be beaten severely. If bulls can keep volatility low, and then push chips, retail stocks and utilities higher, the sky will be the limit for the stock market. Bulls will be rallying the stock market if they push SOX above 5113.

Bears need SPX 6020 and lower to finally get the ball back. Higher volatility and weaker utilities and commodities will create more trouble. Bulls need lower volatility, and stronger chips, retail stocks and utes.

Keybot the Quant does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. It should be an interesting week ahead. Another week in Paradise.

2/16/25; 7:00 PM EST =
2/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = +14; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/7/25; 10:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
2/7/25; 9:49 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
2/7/25; 9:37 AM EST = +30; signal line is +20
2/7/25; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +20
2/7/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/5/25; 10:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +19
2/5/25; 10:14 AM EST = +16; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/5/25; 9:57 AM EST = +0; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/5/25; 9:54 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
2/5/25; 9:45 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21
2/5/25; 9:39 AM EST = +14; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 2:44 PM EST = +0; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the choppy whipsaw slop continues. The robot is champing at the bit to go short but the internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move. It is ridiculous and very odd behavior but what else is new in these markets?

The bears want to be in charge with the algo number 23 points below the signal line but the bulls will not give up the ball. Bears need the SPX to dop below 5991, and Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. It is that simple. SPX starts at 6038 so bears need to see a 47-point drop to take control. Just like a couple days ago, bears do not want a gap-down open since that will delay the move to the short side or, like the other day, end up without the model flipping short. Bears need a nice slow steady move lower in the SPX and for it to drift down to 5991 and fail.

The bulls rally today despite the quant signaling sogginess. Stocks rallied because XRT moved above the key 79.79 bull/bear line in the sand but by the close it fell back below creating market negativity. The VIX line in the sand is 16.85 and price was teasing this level all day long today finishing above at 17.21 creating stock market negativity.

The stock market selling will slow and equities will start to stabilize if XRT moves above 79.79 and/or VIX falls below 16.85. The quant likely needs to see both parameters flip bullish to prove that the stock market selling is over and stocks will rally higher again.

The stock market will be in trouble if the two metrics remain bearish, and if the SPX falls below 5991, equities will fall like rocks as the quant likely flips short. Bulls need stronger retail stocks and lower volatility while bears need SPX 5991. Tiger In Your Tank.

2/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
2/7/25; 10:00 AM EST =
2/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
2/4/25; 2:44 PM EST = +0; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 2:11 PM EST = +16; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 1:31 PM EST = +0; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 12:46 PM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 12:30 PM EST = +0; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
2/4/25; 11:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
2/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
2/3/25; 3:06 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
2/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:52 PM EST = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market turmoil caused by Pope Powell and King Trump continues. The robot is champing at the bit to go short but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move. The algo number is only 3 measly points below the signal line so the bull/bear battle will spill over into next week.

The quant was spitting out numbers on hump day and Friday faster than Cousin Ralphie spitting watermelon seeds at a summer picnic. The stock market is a lot of whipsaw slop this year with one month already in the bag.

Keybot is tracking VIX as the most important market parameter currently. Chips are also key and ditto copper. There are other moving parts but these three should tell the story early next week.

Bulls need SOX above 5140 pronto to stop the stock market selling and stabilize the situation. Tech stocks and chips are on the mat coughing up blood and trying to get up.

Bears simply need the SPX to drop below 6031, only 10 points below the current 6041 price, and Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. If bearish, you do not want a gap down move at the open since this will likely delay when/if the model flips short. A slow, steady, downward move in the stock market is what bears need to get the quant to flip short. Check S&P futures overnight Sunday into Monday to see if a negative  -10 is on the board. That would tell you that the bears are coming to play.

Bears need VIX above 16.85 and you will see an immediate deterioration in the stock market. Since volatility was playing games on Friday moving above and below this key level, if it spikes above, she is likely going to launch higher creating trouble. Bears need CPER below 26.55 so watch copper futures to see if they are weak.

Keep watching utilities. UTIL 976 is a trap-door for the stock market with price at 1000. If the stock market begins selling off in earnest, and UTIL does not fall below 976, that tells you the pullback is run of the mill and stocks should recover going forward. If stocks sell off and the trap-door at 976 gives way, Katy bar the door, the stock market will be going down hard and a long ways and for an extended period (think -10%, -20%, or -30% or more for stocks).

Lots of fun is ahead. Bears need SPX below 6031 to flip Keybot the Quant short and if VIX moves above 16.85, and then CPER below 26.55, stocks will be tumbling lower bigtime. If UTIL 976 gives way, you should lose all hope in the stock market and realize a significant crash is likely. Bears will be smiling if this occurs. Make Me Smile. Steve passed last year.

Bulls need to prevent SPX 6031 with all their might an at the same time push SOX above 5140, otherwise, they are in a heap of trouble. Uriah Heep. Tomorrow is Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, USA.

2/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/31/25; 3:52 PM EST = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:43 PM EST = +16; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:18 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 3:11 PM EST = +16; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 11:40 AM EST = +30; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
1/31/25; 11:17 AM EST = +46; signal line is +31
1/29/25; 2:46 PM EST = +30; signal line is +28
1/29/25; 12:45 PM EST = +16; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
1/29/25; 12:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +25
1/29/25; 11:21 AM EST = +16; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
1/29/25; 10:02 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22
1/29/25; 9:47 AM EST = +16; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
1/28/25; 12:09 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21
1/28/25; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
1/27/25; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long